Relevant bibliographies by topics / Backcasting

Academic literature on the topic 'Backcasting'

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Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 1 February 2022

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Journal articles on the topic "Backcasting"

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Thorén, Kent, and Martin Vendel. "Backcasting as a strategic management tool for meeting VUCA challenges." Journal of Strategy and Management 12, no. 2 (May 9, 2019): 298–312. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jsma-10-2017-0072.

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Purpose Backcasting helps managers involve and align the organization throughout a strategy process. Its core idea is creating a logical path from a depicted future back to the present, to share, analyze and manage strategic challenges. Still its use in strategic management is under-researched. The purpose of this paper is to verify the relevance and validity of backcasting as a strategic management tool. It also analyzes and structures knowledge about backcasting and its practical application in strategic management. Design/methodology/approach This paper employs desktop research method to outline the benefits and limitations of backcasting for strategy formation under VUCA conditions. Findings Backcasting can help organizations overcome cognitive barriers and broaden the scope of options when analyzing future positions. The research provides insights regarding the potential and limitations of backcasting when addressing uncertainty and its drivers. For instance, it helps managers to assess and align visions; increase the understanding and clarity regarding complex dependencies; as well as improve strategic agility. Practical implications Backcasting is exceptionally useful for investigating possible futures and alternative paths to it. Backcasting is an interactive workshop-based method that challenges prevailing mindsets by assuming we are in the future, looking back towards today to find a feasible path when major transitions are necessary. With it, managers can deal with even the most uncertain decisions in a structured manner. Originality/value Backcasting for many reasons has a great potential as a tool for strategy development. It has been successfully applied in other fields but only to a limited extent in business. This paper formally examines its applicability in this context and demonstrates its relevance for dealing with VUCA challenges.
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Roorda, Niko. "Backcasting the Future." IFAC Proceedings Volumes 33, no. 12 (June 2000): 285–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1474-6670(17)37328-7.

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Dreborg, Karl H. "Essence of backcasting." Futures 28, no. 9 (November 1996): 813–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(96)00044-4.

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Roorda, Niko. "Backcasting the future." International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education 2, no. 1 (March 2001): 63–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/1467630110380307.

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Schippl, Jens, and I. Leisner. "Backcasting in Transport." TATuP - Zeitschrift für Technikfolgenabschätzung in Theorie und Praxis 18, no. 2 (August 1, 2009): 63–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.14512/tatup.18.2.63.

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Korhonen, Jouni, and Birk Granberg. "Sweden Backcasting, Now?—Strategic Planning for Covid-19 Mitigation in a Liberal Democracy." Sustainability 12, no. 10 (May 19, 2020): 4138. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12104138.

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Sweden is applying the herd-immunity as its main natural science strategy to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. This has been communicated in a transparent manner. Small groups of young(er) people of up to approximately 50 individuals are subject to a bigger risk of infection than others. The objective of this paper is to make a case for the argument, that alongside herd-immunity, Sweden is using the social science originated planning approach: backcasting. The government has not been transparent on backcasting. The authors present the use of backcasting only as an argument based on available data and authors’ reasoning. A backcasting exercise for the case of the Swedish economy is constructed. This frame outlines five interdependent levels with which a national economy can apply what this paper calls a backcasting herd-immunity approach in its COVID-19 policy. The authors further suggest how it is possible to use social science, natural science and political ideology as complementary in COVID-19 mitigation in particular and in sustainability strategies in general.
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Bengston, David N., Lynne M. Westphal, and Michael J. Dockry. "Back from the Future: The Backcasting Wheel for Mapping a Pathway to a Preferred Future." World Futures Review 12, no. 3 (June 17, 2020): 270–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1946756720929724.

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Backcasting is a Futures method that starts with a preferred future and works back to the present, identifying actions over time needed to achieve the preferred future. But there are few specifics in the Backcasting literature on how to develop the pathway that connects a preferred future to the present. This article describes a participatory process for Backcasting that uses a structure similar to the Futures Wheel to develop the pathway from the preferred future back to the present. A case study of U.S. Forest Service organizational planning is used to illustrate the method.
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Guillen Mandujano, Georgina, Jaco Quist, and Juho Hamari. "Gamification of backcasting for sustainability: The development of the gameful backcasting framework (GAMEBACK)." Journal of Cleaner Production 302 (June 2021): 126609. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.126609.

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Barrella, Elise, and Adjo A. Amekudzi. "Backcasting for Sustainable Transportation Planning." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2242, no. 1 (January 2011): 29–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2242-04.

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Jablonowski, Mark. "Avoiding Risk Dilemmas Using Backcasting." Risk Management 9, no. 2 (March 26, 2007): 118–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.rm.8250026.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Backcasting"

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Manero, Ruz Alejandro. "Our Future Destinations: Backcasting for Sustainable Tourism." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-353535.

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The tourism industry has continuously grown in the last fifty years, promoted economic growth and created jobs (UNWTO, 2017). Nevertheless, this industry is impacting and greatly stressing natural environments and societies inciting a transformation towards a more sustainable form of tourism practices (Williams & Ponsford, 2009). The United Nations General Assembly declared 2017 as the International Year of Sustainable Tourism for Development (UNWTO, 2016). The purpose of the declaration was to position the tourism industry as a tool to address the Universal 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (UNWTO, 2016). A backcasting participatory approach was used to explore the roles of the SDGs in creating future sustainable tourism destinations, using Swedish Lapland as a reference. The study uses backcasting as a method together with a literature review and semi-structured interviews to key stakeholders. The study concludes that SDGs are good parameters to describe current scenarios in order to develop desired ones. It also finds that sustainable future tourism destinations are highly connected with environment and society as part of the core experience, resecting traditions and culture. In order to achieve sustainable future destinations legislation, better practices and alternative methods of transportation need to be implemented alongside creating an experience that is based on responsibility towards nature and societies.
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Angelstam, Mikael. "A Future in Sustainable Development : Backcasting the SDGs." Thesis, KTH, Miljöstrategisk analys (fms), 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-211256.

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In 2015 the 17 Sustainable Development Goals were adopted by 193 member states of the United Nations. The SDGs are highly ambitious and their underlying processes are interconnected by causal relationships. Work towards fulfilling them therefore requires considering how solutions for one goal will impacts others. In this study target-oriented backcasting is applied to examine set goals in the future, as well as to determine the current state and trends of development. This is done in an effort to determine conflicts between targets and resource limitations of future development. The findings suggest that the current paradigm of giving GDP growth highest societal priority, leads to a causal relationship where development occurs at the expense of sustainability at the global level. In order to overcome this, the fulfilment of the SDGs has to be given higher priority than the size and growth rate of the GDP.
Under 2015 antogs de 17 globala hållbarhetsmålen av 193 medlemsstater i Förenta Nationerna. Målen är väldigt ambitiösa och deras underliggande processer sammanlänkar dem via orsakssamband. Arbetet med att uppfylla målen kräver därför att hänsyn tas till hur tänkta lösningar till ett mål i sin tur påverkar de övriga. I den här studien tillämpas target-oriented backcasting för att undersöka de uppsatta framtida målen, samt hur utvecklingen i dagsläget förhåller sig till dessa. Detta görs som ett försök att identifiera konflikter mellan de uppsatta målen, samt mot den begränsade mängden naturresurser som finns tillgänglig för framtida utveckling. Resultaten tyder på att under det rådande paradigmet där BNP tillväxt ges högsta prioritet i samhället, leder detta till ett orsakssamband där samhällsutveckling sker på bekostnad av långsiktig hållbarhet på global nivå. För att kunna komma runt detta krävs att uppfyllandet av de globala hållbarhetsmålen prioriteras över ekonomins storlek och tillväxt avseende BNP.
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Åkerman, Jonas. "Transport systems meeting long-term climate targets : A backcasting approach." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Miljöstrategisk analys, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-29712.

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Future transport systems consistent with long-term climate targets are examined in this thesis, using a systems perspective covering the entire transport system. Aviation is given particular attention, as expansion of this mode is difficult to reconcile with climate targets. The aim is to provide scientific decision support for current transport policy-making, especi-ally regarding structures with high inertia, e.g. urban structure, roads, railways, fuel produc-tion systems and vehicle fleets. An additional aim is to widen the perception of possible transport futures consistent with meeting climate targets, and to support a wider discussion in society on this topic. Papers I and III are backcasting studies which encompass the whole transport system. Paper III outlines an image of future Swedish transport by 2050, in which energy use per capita is reduced by 60%. This reduction is consistent with a 42% reduction in total global greenhouse gas emissions. Paper IV shows that total air travel by Swedes generates about 8.7 million tons of CO2-equivalents annually. This corresponds to about 12% of total Swedish emissions. Considering the rapid growth in emissions, aviation is key to achieving overall climate targets. Paper V indicates that building high-speed tracks between Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö may yield emissions reductions of about 550,000 tons of CO2-equivalents annually, if a life-cycle perspective is considered for all modes. However, this reduction is contingent on continuing growth of transport volumes, which seems diffi-cult to reconcile with the images in Papers II and III. This might consequently be a „second best‟ solution if a more radical break in transport growth is deemed unlikely due to external drivers. The overall conclusion from this thesis is that improved vehicle technology and low carbon fuels are necessary, but not solely sufficient, to achieve long-term targets consistent with limiting global warming to two degrees. The growth in volume, especially of car and air travel and truck transport, must also be curbed. However, total travel volume can be maintained at 2005 levels if substantial modal shifts to cycling and public transport are achieved. Moreover, if conscious measures are taken regarding urban planning and the use of communications technology to replace travel, functional accessibility may increase considerably. The trend-breaking development needed to achieve climate targets requires a combination of different policy measures. Pricing of external effects, e.g. greenhouse gas emissions, is a key strategy and would involve ending aviation‟s exemption from carbon tax and value-added tax. Other possible pricing measures include differentiated charges for car travel in urban areas, km-charges on trucks and increased fuel taxes. However, to gain acceptance for pricing measures and maintain a well-functioning society, better alternatives with a lower climate impact are needed. Increased road capacity in urban areas usually increases car travel. Therefore, to achieve the targets set, strict prioritisation of investments in public transport, cycling and ICT infrastructure is needed, especially since public resources are limited. Another conclusion is that, for transport policies to be effective and not lead to sub-optimisations, it is necessary to consider the wider system delimitations explored in this thesis.
Denna avhandling handlar om vilka förändringar av transportsystemet som krävs om långsiktiga klimatmål ska kunna nås. Flyget ägnas speciell uppmärksamhet eftersom dess snabba ökning är mycket svår att förena med klimatmålen. Ett syfte med avhandlingen är att ge underlag för nutida beslut, speciellt sådana som gäller strukturer i samhället med lång livslängd. Det gäller bebyggelsestruktur, vägar, järnvägar och system för bränsleproduktion, men även fordonsflottor. Ett ytterligare syfte är att vidga föreställningen om möjliga trans-portframtider, i syfte att ge underlag för en bredare diskussion i samhället om vilka fördel-arna och nackdelarna är med olika utvecklingar. Artiklarna I och III utgör backcastingstudier där hela transportsystemet behandlas. I artikel III presenteras en framtidsbild för det svenska transportsystemet år 2050 där energianvändningen per person har minskat med 60%. Detta är förenligt med en minskning av de globala utsläppen av växthusgaser med 42%. I artikel IV visas att utsläppen från den svenska befolkningens totala flygresande (inrikes och utrikes) år 2006 uppgick till 8,7 miljoner ton CO2-ekvivalenter. Detta motsvarar 12% av de totala svenska utsläppen av växthusgaser från alla sektorer. Artikel V visar att ett bygge av höghas-tighetsjärnväg mellan Stockholm, Göteborg och Malmö (Europabanan) skulle kunna minska de årliga utsläppen med 550 000 ton CO2-ekvivalenter per år, utifrån ett livscykelperspektiv. Denna utsläppsminskning är dock relaterad till ett referensscenario med en relativt kraftig ökning av transportvolymerna, en utveckling som synes svår att förena med framtidsbild-erna i artikel II och III. Höghastighets järnväg kan således betecknas som en ”näst bästa” lösning, som kan bli aktuell om ökningstakten för transportvolymerna inte bedöms kunna bromsas kraftigt. Den övergripande slutsatsen från denna avhandling är att förbättrad fordonsteknik och större andel icke-fossila bränslen är nödvändigt, men att ökningstakten för främst bilresande, flygresande och lastbilstransporter också behöver brytas. Om en kraftig överflyttning kan ske till mer klimatvänliga transportslag, som cykel, buss och spårtrafik, så skulle dock det totala resandet kunna vara ungefär lika stort som det var år 2005. Med en medveten satsning på transporteffektiv samhällsplanering samt ett smart utnyttjande av IT för att ersätta en del resor med virtuella möten, så kan dessutom tillgängligheten till olika funktioner öka mar-kant. För att åstadkomma de trendbrott som behövs om klimatmålen ska nås, krävs en kom-bination av olika styrmedel. Ekonomiska styrmedel är mycket viktiga, inte minst att flygets nuvarande undantag från klimatskatter och moms avslutas. Andra viktiga styrmedel är trängsel- och miljöavgifter för bilar i stadsområden, km-skatter för lastbilar samt i viss mån höjda koldioxidskatter. För att nå acceptans för dessa styrmedel samt bibehålla ett väl funge-rande samhälle krävs dock, i vissa fall, bättre alternativ med låg klimatpåverkan. Eftersom ny vägkapacitet oftast leder till nygenererad trafik, är det viktigt att tillgängliga resurser konsekvent prioriteras till kollektivtrafik, cykel och informations- och kommunikations-teknologi.
QC 20110211
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Lee, P. N. "Sustainable urban transport in Kuala Lumpur : a backcasting scenario approach." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2005. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1444947/.

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Urban transport trends and issues in Kuala Lumpur have indicated that they are moving away from sustainability. Besides the conventional problems such as congestion, accidents, urban air pollution, there are signs showing mat social inequality and institutional problems are confronting the transport system in Kuala Lumpur. The above issues are not the natural outcome of development instead, they are related to specific social, economic and political policies. In view of the complexity and the great number of uncertainties, a backcasting scenario methodology has been adopted in this study to analyse the means of breaking the present trend. The overall aim of the research is to explore a wider perspective of possible future opportunities and policy options in order to achieve sustainable urban transport objectives in Kuala Lumpur. The sustainable urban transport policy has been formulated in four major steps (the central structure of scenario backcasting methodology). Firstly, the vision of the urban transport system in Kuala Lumpur has been defined, i.e. the one that provides affordable access to all levels of the community, and does so in an economically viable, environmentally sound and equitable manner. Secondly, policy targets have been identified in accordance with the vision. Then, three Images of the Future have been constructed to represent the alternative images. Finally, measures and policy packages have been developed to bridge the gap between the present and the future images. At every stage of the methodology, local transport experts were invited to contribute their inputs to the study as part of the validation process. The thesis concludes with an assessment of the three Images in relation to sustainability achievement and also their practicality in terms of implementation. It also recommends basic conditions and common measures to achieve a sustainable transport system in Kuala Lumpur. The contributions of this research are twofold. Firstly, it extends the frontiers of the existing transport policy considerations and formulation in Kuala Lumpur, and secondly, it demonstrates a novel application of backcasting scenario methodology to the sustainable urban transport field at the city level.
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Wangel, Josefin. "Making Futures : On Targets, Measures and Governance in Backcasting and Planning." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Miljöstrategisk analys, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-94151.

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This thesis is about the making of futures – in the sense of planning, through which the world of tomorrow is crafted, and in the sense of images of the future, developed through the futures studies approach of backcasting. The point of departure for the thesis is that more visionary and strategic forms of planning are needed if the challenges of sustainable development are to be met, and that backcasting, through its long-term, integrative and normative character, can be a helpful tool towards this end. The thesis explores how backcasting can be used when planning for sustainability by looking into three areas of problems and possibilities. The first of these concerns target setting, for which was found that both backcasting and planning tend to use targets that are elusive, rendering it difficult to understand what is included in the target and what is omitted. As a way to rectify this, a framework of methodological considerations for target setting is presented (Paper I). There is also a need for further methodological development on how to set targets for environmental aspects other than energy and GHG gases. The second area concerns the identification of measures and actors, where both backcasting and planning were found to have the problem of being techno-biased and/or taking a rather superficial approach to ‘the social’ which means that the socio-technical complexity of everyday life is left unattended (Paper II). This has consequences in terms of delimiting the scope of measures identified and proposed and of the potential of these to result in intended changes. Two approaches are suggested to deal with this: a methodology for developing socio-technical scenarios, in which an iterative identification of objects and agents of change is a central trait (Paper III), and a service-orientated energy efficiency analysis, in which the social logic of energy use is highlighted (Paper IV). The third area concerns how backcasting can be used in a more explorative approach to the governance of change, instead of leaving this unaddressed and/or unaltered (Paper V). In relation to this, the institutional and political dimensions of planning for sustainability are emphasised, with the focus on path dependency, discursive power and critical junctures (Paper VI). The connection described between the fields of backcasting and planning for sustainability study and practice is thus beneficial for planning by showing how this could be made more visionary and strategic, while also contributing to the theoretical and methodological advancement of backcasting. One of the main contributions of the thesis is the exploration of how backcasting studies could benefit from including the question of ‘Who?’: Who could make the changes happen? Who should change (whose) lifestyle? Who (what group/s in society) benefits and who loses from the images of the future that are developed? And who is invited to take part in the making of futures and whose futures are being heard? Including the question of ‘who’ highlights the normative character of sustainable development and makes issues of environmental justice and equity visible. The formulation of images of the future is also a question of resources and ultimately of power. In relation to this there is a need for groups of society besides those in power to be encouraged to develop their images of the (sustainable, desired) future, and to give room for these in policy-making and planning. The openness of the future renders desirability and ethics, and not probability, the basis on which the feasibility of images of the future must be assessed.

QC 20120514


SitCit
ICT as a motor for transition
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Suwa, Aki. "Soft energy paths in Japan : the backcasting approach to energy planning." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2005. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1446820/.

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Climate change is increasingly recognised as a serious threat to the global ecosystem. The international framework, such as the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change provides a main mechanism to harness world-wide commitment for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction, to cope with the climate change. Japan is one of the countries which are required to reduce significant amounts of GHG emissions, including C02. The Japanese energy policy is rather fragmented and ineffective in coping with the global climate challenge, and often highly controversial options have been included. Nuclear is, for example, considered by the Japanese government as one of the most important elements to meet its obligation, although there are many doubts over the legitimacy of the option in the light of sustainable development. Against this background, it is critical to review the current energy policy and policy making processes in Japan. This study takes the challenge to propose alternative future visions and to examine their implications in the real policy context. Backcasting methodology, that creates a normative vision and identifies policy path to reach the vision, is identified as a highly relevant conceptual framework to this study. A strategic perspective is applied to the analysis, and the core research quest includes whether the strategic level of discussion between different parties could reduce the policy conflicts and divisions. The study offered four visions and the subsequent policy packages. The detailed policy paths are created to achieve the visions. Two tier evaluation stages are set to validate the policy packages and paths, through communication with selected Japanese energy experts. The study provides an insight as to the effectiveness of the methodology, and the legitimacy of the proposed visions and policy packages. Series of recommendation are made in terms of methodological and policy perspective. In particular, a "policy road map" is proposed as an effective tool to present policy coordination that enables cross strategic and time based policy analysis.
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Fahlberg, Kristin. "Stockholms Energiframtid : En backcastingstudie för ett fossilbränslefritt Stockholms län 2050." Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekologi, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-62469.

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This study concerns the energy future of the county of Stockholm up until 2050 and describes how the energy consumption can be compared to today with the use of scenario methodology. Within energy future studies the backcasting approach is well known and has been put to use in this study. Due to the characteristics of backcasting the study is self-fulfilling, i.e. the future energy scenarios presented in this study satisfy the targets set up in this study. In the light of what may be the largest challenge of our time – the climate change - the aim of this study is to describe how the energy consumption in a fossil fuel free Stockholm county in the year of 2050 may be. The need to reduce the carbon emission to the atmosphere is extensive and of immediate urgency. One part of reducing carbon emission is to relinquish the fossil energy use which is attained either by reducing the energy consumption or switching to renewable energy use or a combination of both of these measures. The scenarios also describe the energy use per capita as well as carbon emissions per capita (due to energy use) besides being fossil fuel free. The energy use and carbon emission per capita is related to what is known as fair share of environmental space which may indicate if the per capita levels deduced in this study is consistent with a sustainable society. Several measures and their potential (to decrease the energy use or shifting into renewable energy fuels) are presented. The scope of measures reaches for example from energy efficiency to new infrastructure but also to reducing measures that reduce the need for example travels. The measures presented in the study are a reality today or will be in the near future, so the study takes on a non-technology optimistic approach. Several of the measures are combined into two different energy-futures for the year 2050 and their energy use is comparedto a business-as-usual-scenario. The business-as-usual-scenario describes the level of energy use in the County of Stockholm if no active measures are taken to reduce the energy use. The scenarios are presented with two different possible alternatives for the economic and population growth, i.e. alternative BAS (eng; base) and HÖG (eng; high). The study with its (only) two different future scenarios is not exhausting thepossible fossil fuel free futures of Stockholm County. Neither the measures nor the energy-futures have been evaluated from an economic or any other perspective. This means the study leave out whether the measures or the energy futures are feasible from an economic perspective or even desirable. The study also leaves out other perspectives like other environmental effects, health issues,equality, aesthetic etc. The aim of presenting different energy-futures of a fossil fuel free Stockholm county is to encourage, simulate stakeholders, policymakers and community citizens to further take an active interest and to start making the changes needed that leads to a fossil fuel free community. The energy-futures but also a few of the measures shows that the future energy use in Stockholm county in the year 2050 may decrease substantially compared 2003. As a result of this the need for renewable energy fuels (for replacing theuse of fossil energy fuels) is reduced. If Stockholm county may take an 10 % part of the bio energy that the whole of Sweden can produce in the future the fossil fuel free energy-futures presented in this study is secured. The energy-futures also shows that the energy use per capita may reach a sustainable level and also that the carbon emission per capita reaches a level far below the suggested level expressed by the Swedish government of 4,5 ton CO2 per capita. One step in the backcasting approach has been left out in this study, i.e. the path to the presented energy-futures. The reason for this is that it needs further analysis of the energy-futures from several other perspectives. As well as analysis over decision making processes, planning processes and different stakeholders involved. However the presented energy-futures may in some cases indicate what type of measures and decisions that needs to be taken and what kind of investments that are needed. Finally, the future is still yet unknown and the energy-futures presented in this study are in the long-time perspective which further increases the uncertainty ofthe scenarios because of uncertainty in collected data, calculations and assumptions made. On the other hand the aim of the study is not to present the most probable energy future but energy futures that fulfil the target of a fossil fuel free Stockholm county in the year 2050.
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Cuginotti, Augusto, Karen Marie Miller, and Freek van der Pluijm. "Design and Decision Making : Backcasting using principles to implement cradle-to-cradle." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Avdelningen för maskinteknik, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-3501.

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Human society is currently designed based on linear patterns, without concern for and interactions with the biosphere. The natural world works in cycles, and in order to interact with these systems in a sustainable way, the redesign of human society according to the paradigm of cyclical thinking is required. This paper explores the synthesis and synergies between the cradle-to-cradle concept and a Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development in the context of sustainable development. The research tests whether Backcasting using Sustainability Principles is supportive to the implementation of the cradle-to-cradle concept and draws on relevant literature as well as interviews with experts. Based upon this research a process tool is designed and tested within a case study. Results indicate that, when backcasting using sustainability principles, principles for design and principles for decision-making provide synergistic characteristics in the process of implementation. Inspiring design principles, such as the ones suggested by the cradle-to-cradle concept, provide powerful engagement for a social learning process that works towards sustainable development. A structured decision-making process based on backcasting using sustainability principles provides the constraints and criteria for robust decision-making along the journey.
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Höjer, Mattias. "What is the Point of IT? : Backcasting urban transport and land-use futures." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Infrastruktur och samhällsplanering, 2000. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-3016.

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Sustainable development, future studies, informationtechnology, urban land-use and passenger transport. These arethe five concepts upon which this thesis and the eight papersit contains are based. The thesis includes both a developmentof future studies methodology, especially with regard tobackcasting, and analyses of the relationship betweensustainable development, information technology, transport andland-use in future cities Paper I (Gudmundsson&Höjer, 1996) suggests foursustainable development principles and discusses theimplications of these four principles for the transportsystem. Paper II (Höjer&Mattsson, 2000) is amethodological paper where backcasting is discussed in relationto some other future studies approaches. Moreover, the use of anumber of common empirical approaches in such studies iscriticised for being too deterministic. Paper III (Höjer, 1997) presents a study where fourtechnical scenarios of intelligent transport systems weregenerated and evaluated. The evaluation used a Delphi-inspiredbackcasting approach, where a total of some 100 internationalexperts contributed to a two-round survey. Paper IV (Höjer, 1998a) highlights three of thescenarios generated in Paper III and elaborates some resultsfrom the evaluation of them. Paper V (Steen et al., 1999) uses assumptions, based onother studies, regarding global future energy supply as well ason the development of vehicle technology and traffic volumes.Based on these, a scenario of a sustainable transport systemfor Sweden in 2040 is developed. Paper VI (Höjer, 2000b) looks at how the patterns ofcommuting and land-use can change with new organisationalforms. The change can either contribute to reduced trafficvolumes and a more sustainable transport system, or it can leadsociety even further into unsustainability. Paper VII (Höjer, 2000a) reports from a calculation ofpotential effects on commuting from a change towards anode-structured Stockholm region. The calculation is based onorigin-destination matrices generated from a traffic analysismodel. Paper VIII (Höjer, 1996) is a generalising analyticalpaper on the relationship between information technology,especially transport telematics, and sustainabledevelopment.
QC 20100617
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Isaksson, Sarah. "När målet inte är förhandlingsbart : Stadsplanering i centrala Nacka år 2030 med backcasting." Thesis, KTH, Miljöstrategisk analys, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-124531.

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Låt oss anta att Nacka kommun, företag och medborgare i samverkan ser den nya tunnelbanesträckningen till Nacka centrum som en möjlighet att skapa de ”trendbrott” i dagens utveckling som behövs för att stödja att centrala Nacka uppfyller sin del av tvågradersmålet till 2050. Studien använder sig av den normativa scenariotekniken backcasting och utgår från ovanstående antagande för att skapa ett scenario för 2030. Scenariot illustrerar en metod för hur planerare, politiker och andra aktörer kan samverka för att bidra till en hållbar stadsutveckling. Scenariot har tagits fram med hjälp av en workshop med deltagare inom olika kunskapsområden från ett konsultbolag i samhällsbyggnadsbranschen och Nacka kommun, där backcastingtekniken tillämpades. Syftet med studien är att illustrera ett alternativ för hur centrala Nacka år 2030 kan se ut om Nacka kommun med andra aktörer i samverkan bestämde sig för att ge ett bidrag till att centrala Nacka ska uppfylla sin del av tvågradersmålet, samt att ge exempel på hur backcasting kan användas i samhällsplaneringen. Studien utgår ifrån att den idag planerade t-banedragningen till Nacka centrum kommer att bli av, och att det i sin tur blir en möjlighet för förändring mot en hållbar utveckling i de centrala delarna av Nacka. Studien har även ett aktörsperspektiv och kartlägger vilka aktörer som idag är med och påverkar utvecklingen i centrala Nacka och vilka som enlig scenariot för 2030 kommer att vara med och påverka utvecklingen. Ett omvärldsscenario för 2030 användes i syfte att få deltagarna att befria tanken och tänka bortom dagens planering. Scenariot för centrala Nacka 2030 förmedlar bilden av centrala Nacka som det skulle kunna se ut om planerare och andra aktörer använder sig av kreativitet och nya idéer för att ge sitt bidrag till uppfyllandet av tvågradersmålet och halvera sina utsläpp till 2050. Vidare visar studien hur backcasting kan användas som en ny metodik i kommunal planering i arbete med exempelvis hållbarhetsprogram för stadsdelar.   NYCKELORD: Backcasting, framtidsstudier, workshop, centrala Nacka, omvärldsscenario, aktörssamverkan, strategisk planering
SitCit - Situation of Opportunity in the Growth and Change of three Stockholm City Districts – everyday life, built environment and transport explored as Energy Usage Systems (EUS) and Governance Networks
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Books on the topic "Backcasting"

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Quist, Jaco. Backcasting for a sustainable future: The impact after 10 years. Delft: Eburon, 2007.

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Quist, Jaco. Backcasting for a sustainable future: The impact after 10 years. Delft: Eburon, 2006.

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1951-, Biesiot Wouter, ed. Transition to a sustainable society: A backcasting approach to modelling energy and ecology. Cheltenham, UK: E. Elgar, 1998.

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Book chapters on the topic "Backcasting"

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Ishida, Emile H., and Ryuzo Furukawa. "Forecasting and Backcasting." In Nature Technology, 41–56. Tokyo: Springer Japan, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-54613-9_5.

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Ishida, Emile H., and Ryuzo Furukawa. "Lifestyles Envisioned with Backcasting." In Nature Technology, 57–65. Tokyo: Springer Japan, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-54613-9_6.

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Löchtefeld, Stefan. "Backcasting – Ein Instrument zur Zukunftsgestaltung." In Werkstattbuch Familienzentrum, 109–17. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-91640-8_9.

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Schuck, Sandy, Peter Aubusson, Kevin Burden, and Sue Brindley. "Backcasting Mathematics Teaching: Preservice Teachers’ Voices." In Uncertainty in Teacher Education Futures, 233–51. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-8246-7_13.

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Schuck, Sandy, Peter Aubusson, Kevin Burden, and Sue Brindley. "Backcasting: Testing the Feasibility of Alternative Futures." In Uncertainty in Teacher Education Futures, 115–30. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-8246-7_8.

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Quist, Jaco. "Backcasting and Scenarios for Sustainable Technology Development." In Handbook of Sustainable Engineering, 749–71. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-8939-8_52.

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van der Pluijm, Freek, Karen Marie Miller, and Augusto Cuginotti. "Backcasting Using Principles for Implementing Cradle-to-Cradle." In Facilitating Sustainable Innovation through Collaboration, 203–16. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3159-4_11.

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Kishita, Yusuke. "Backcasting for Envisioning Sustainable Futures Across Multiple Generations." In Economics, Law, and Institutions in Asia Pacific, 49–68. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-5407-0_4.

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Sisto, Roberta, Edgardo Sica, Mariarosaria Lombardi, and Maurizio Prosperi. "Participatory Planning in Organic Solid Waste Management: A Backcasting Approach." In Food Waste Reduction and Valorisation, 261–78. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-50088-1_13.

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Komoto, H., K. Masui, and S. Kondoh. "A Simulation Method of Dynamic Systems Applied to Backcasting Scenario Design." In The Philosopher's Stone for Sustainability, 333–38. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-32847-3_56.

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Conference papers on the topic "Backcasting"

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Willett, Rebecca, Aline Martin, and Robert Nowak. "Backcasting." In the third international symposium. New York, New York, USA: ACM Press, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/984622.984641.

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Köves, Alexandra, Gábor Király, György Pataki, and Bálint Balázs. "Backcasting for Sustainable Employment." In The 2nd World Sustainability Forum. Basel, Switzerland: MDPI, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/wsf2-00992.

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Koenig, Reinhard, and Gerhard Schmitt. "Backcasting and a New Way of Command in Computational Design." In CAADence in Architecture. Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Faculty of Architecture, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.3311/caadence.1692.

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Mizuno, Yuji, Yusuke Kishita, Haruna Wada, Kazuhiro Kobayashi, Shinichi Fukushige, and Yasushi Umeda. "Proposal of Design Support Method of Sustainability Scenarios in Backcasting Manner." In ASME 2012 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2012-70850.

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Describing sustainability scenarios is a hopeful approach for envisioning sustainable future visions of industries. However, describing sustainability scenarios is a difficult task and there is no computational support method. This article proposes a design support method of sustainability scenarios in a backcasting manner, which means thinking backward from targeted futures. For the design support method, we propose the following two methods; (i) a method for supporting backward thinking and constructing future visions using a logic tree and (ii) a method for drawing transition paths based on the logic tree. As a case study, we designed “Sustainable manufacturing scenario,” which envisions sustainable future visions of manufacturing industries. Through the case study, we identified the effectiveness of the proposed method. The proposed method supports designing the scenario in clarifying the future visions, drawing the transition paths, and describing them in scenario structurally.
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Feng, Xuesong, A. Fujiwara, J. Y. Zhang, X. J. Niu, and Y. Hayashi. "Backcasting Assessment of Strategies for Efficiently Sustainable Urban Transport Developments of Developing Cities." In Seventh International Conference on Traffic and Transportation Studies (ICTTS) 2010. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/41123(383)2.

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Hsu, Ming-Te, Dah-Chuan Gong, and Cheng-Chang Chang. "A Study of the Procurement Reformation of Government Technology Entity by Backcasting Approach to Transform to an NDPB." In 5th International Asia Conference on Industrial Engineering and Management Innovation (IEMI 2014). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/iemi-14.2014.72.

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