Academic literature on the topic 'Australian Capital territory education'

AbstractThis article reports on the results of a survey distributed in April 2007 to government special education schools and settings throughout Australia. The survey collected information about the age and special education qualifications of teaching staff. It followed a similar survey that was distributed in May 2006 to Victorian special schools that found that 44.9% of teachers and principals were aged 50 years or more, and 68.9% had a special education qualification. In the current survey, the percentage of principals and teachers aged 50 years or more in the responding schools ranged from 37.5% in New South Wales to 51.0% in the Australian Capital Territory. The percentage of special education qualified staff varied from 53.1% in the Australian Capital Territory to 86.6% in Western Australia. These results are examined in further detail and possible implications discussed.

Issues pertaining to religion and Australian schools have generated a significant amount of controversy and scholarly attention in recent years, and much of the attention in the religion and schools debate has focused on Muslim and non-religious children’s experiences (Erebus International, 2006; Halafoff, 2013). This article, by contrast, explores the manifestations of antisemitism as experienced by Jewish children and youth in Canberra schools. It considers the characteristics of antisemitism; when and why it occurs; its impact on the Jewish children and young people; and also the responses to it by them, the schools and the Jewish community. Based on focus groups with the Jewish students and their parents, the study reveals that antisemitism is common in Canberra schools, as almost all Jewish children and youth in this study have experienced it. The findings from this study suggest that there is a need for more anti-racism education. Specifically there is an urgent need for educational intervention about antisemitism, alongside education about religions and beliefs in general, to counter antisemitism more effectively and religious discrimination more broadly in Australian schools.

The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) has recently released a report on the educational outcomes for children and young people on guardianship or custody orders. This report, four years in the making, represents one of the first comprehensive Australian assessments based on educational performance data from multiple jurisdictions for children on guardianship or custody orders. Developed for the National Child Protection and Support Services data group, the study was funded by the Community and Disability Services Ministers’ Advisory Council (AIHW 2007).This pilot study examines how children on guardianship/custody orders are performing compared with all Australian children in education department-based testing for reading and numeracy in years 3, 5 and 7. Mean test scores were examined in addition to the achievement of national benchmarks for reading and numeracy. These nationally agreed benchmarks are designed to assess whether children have achieved the minimum standards for years 3, 5 and 7 (AIHW 2007). Data on 895 children on guardianship or custody orders were collected from five jurisdictions - Queensland, Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory - for August 2003 (AIHW 2007). The data were linked through collaborative efforts by state and territory education and community services departments.

Background. In September 2008 the ACT achieved the highest childhood coverage rates in Australia with rates of 93.5% (12–15-month age cohort), 94.9% (24–27-month age cohort) and 90.58% (60–63-month age cohort). Purpose. To analyse the key contributing factors and policy initiatives that have likely to have led to high childhood immunisation rates in the ACT. Methods. Data used in this report were sourced from the Australian Childhood Immunisation Register (ACIR) held at Medicare Australia, General Practice Immunisation Incentives (GPII) ‘calculation’ data held at ACT Division of General Practice and internal immunisation databases held at Health Protection Service. Outcomes. Although the reasons for the high coverage rates seen in children are multi factorial (including national and consumer factors), key reasons locally in the ACT include: (a) the implementation of an ACT-wide immunisation strategy; (b) proactive follow up of children overdue for immunisation; (c) more sustainable provision of immunisation services across both public and private health providers; and (d) a centralised vaccine delivery service and ‘cold chain’ monitoring system. Conclusions. Although nationwide immunisation policy has been successful in increasing childhood coverage rates across all Australian jurisdictions, it is important to also acknowledge local factors that have likely to have contributed to the successful implementation of the Immunise Australia Program at the coal face. What is known about the topic? Childhood immunisation rates have risen significantly in Australia since the mid 1990s following a plethora of initiatives at both a national and state and territory level. This article examines in depth the various factors over the past decade that have likely to have contributed to the high childhood immunisation rates currently seen in the Australian Capital Territory What does this paper add? The ACT changed its strategic thinking towards immunisation provision in 2004 with an increased focus on immunisation delivery in general practice. Immunisation coverage rates improved in the ACT between 2005 and 2008 with general practice increasing their contribution to immunisation provision from 35 to 57% during this time period. This was despite of a drop in full-time equivalent general practices (GPs) in the ACT between 2003 and 2008. At face value the initial decision to increase immunisation provision through general practice in the face of a dwindling GP workforce appeared counter intuitive. What this article illustrates is the importance of having the right mix and proportion of providers delivering immunisation (public clinics v. general practice) as well as having well resourced support systems for vaccine delivery, provider education and data analysis. More importantly this paper illustrates that any disruption in any component of immunisation provision is likely to have a negative effect on coverage rates (examples provided in the article). What are the implications for practitioners? Achieving high immunisation in the ACT has been a collaborative effort by a range of immunisation stakeholders. These groups have formed strong partnerships to raise awareness of the value of immunisation and the importance of receiving vaccinations at the correct time. It is this collective effort across the health portfolio that is likely to have contributed to the ACT achieving high immunisation coverage rates amongst children. It is important for immunisation practitioners to retain strong professional networks with clear delineation of roles in order to maintain high immunisation rates. Such networks must also be adequately prepared for challenges on the horizon (i.e. change in government policy, loss of personnel, change in consumer attitudes towards immunisation, etc.) that may pose a threat towards high immunisation rates.

Critical educational commentary on the problem of assessment has attempted to apply political and philosophical coherence to a dispersed collection of problems, by representing the field as polarised by absolute oppositions of principle. This paper attempts to set aside these global formulations, arguing that they bear little relation to the more piecemeal elements of the problems endemic to the modern apparatus of assessment. Drawing on recent Foucaultian work on Australian education, it explores these arguments via a case study of debates on the Australian Scholastic Aptitude Test and gender equity in the Australian Capital Territory. The conundrums arising from this example are treated as suggestive of some limitations of current forms of educational critique.

This thesis has as its origins a desire by the Ministerial Advisory Council on Adult and Community Education in the Australian Capital Territory to learn more about the sector with whom they interact. There was a clear perception that, due to its diversity, a strong reliance on volunteers and an underlying mistrust of beaurocracy, the sector was quite poorly delineated. If this was in fact the case, then the capacity of the Council to support the sector - for example through the grants scheme - was being greatly handicapped. In the case of grants, it was known that requests commonly outnumbered available grant funds by three or four to one. What was not known was the extent of other worthwhile ACE activity that was either electing not to apply for funding or was simply unaware that the facility even existed. The research, based on the results of a broad ranging questionnaire distributed to all known ACE providers in the ACT, has furthered the level of understanding of the sector. The research approach was modeled on the South Australian Pathfinder Project (1996). Key findings include that: ? the ACE sector is extremely diverse and active in the ACT; ? it is client focussed in that it develops its programs in response to the identified needs of its target group(s); ? in the twelve months covered by the survey there were over 190 000 attendees in ACE programs; ? a range of programs are available to most community groups; ? there is a strong reliance on volunteers; ? the sector generally feels that there is a demand for even more programs than are currently offered; ? many individual providers do not see themselves as part of the overall ACE sector. While there are some marked similarities between the ACT ACE sector and the South Australian findings, there also some clear differences. For example, many of the factors that restrict access to ACE in other parts of Australia are less relevant to the ACT. An example of this is that travel distances/times for participants to access programs are generally less of a problem in the ACT than in some other jurisdictions due to the small area and the concentration of population in the ACT.

An aspect of Australian education is the continued presence of the Catholic schools including those in the Archdiocese of Canberra and Goulburn. They have continued to be a significant part of Australian education after decades of ups and downs. The question today is not whether Catholic schools will survive but rather how effective they will be despite the changes which have taken place over the last few decades. Catholic schools still aim to provide all the elements of a State education, and in addition, to offer them within a Catholic setting. They have tried to create an environment that will continue to reflect the cultural values of its members. The Theses is on Catholic Education in Practice: A Case Study of a Catholic High School in the A.C.T. The Theses is based on historical and analytical approach. The results of a case study involving random sampled students, their parents/guardians and teachers in a Catholic High School in the A.C.T. sets out to investigate what factors still attract them to the Catholic school despite the significant changes that have taken place since Catholic education was introduced into Australia. By examining these three groups of people who are directly involved in Catholic schools, it is hoped that a more balanced assessment of the extent to which ideals and practices of Catholic education have been retained. The results show that students attend Catholic schools for a variety of reasons including academic and religious and because of the traditional approach to areas such as discipline. The religious values continue to be an important part of the school which makes it distinctively Catholic, but the integration is not as pervasive as previous due to the change in the nature of staff and students at the school.

This study explores the implementation of adult learning principles in information technology adult education and training in the Australian Capital Territory, Australia. A set of adult learning principles is examined and interpreted with reference to supporting and contradicting theorists. The development of these theories is also explored in order to determine the changes in perspectives since 1900. Five of Canberra's information technology adult education and training providers were analysed. Surveys were distributed to trainers and students of these providers. These surveys requested respondents to rate their perception of the extent to which each learning principle is adopted in their learning environment. Demographic information about respondents was also obtained. Responses were compared between trainers, students and different providers. Results illustrate that the rejection or non-rejection of many adult learning principles is highly correlated with this demographic information.

The role of women has become a central issue in educational debate because of the discrepancy between their representation at the administrative and policy level and their representation at the classroom level. This study identified the factors which aid the success of women in educational administration. By using structured interviews and response analysis the study identifies major facilitaters and barriers to success. The literature review surveys the position of women in educational administration. The study provides information that is crucial to aspiring female educators in individual career planning and is essential to systems in the promotion of Equal Employment Opportunities. Research was undertaken in the Australian Capital Territory and involved Government and Non Government systems.

During the latter half of the twentieth century, youthwork has emerged as an occupation responsible for the delivery of a broad variety of services for young people. During the 1970's and 80's in particular, there has been a rapid multiplication of the number of people employed in the role of youthworker. As an occupation, youthwork has had placed upon it by society certain expectations regarding the standard of the work performed. This is particularly so with respect to the interaction between the youthworker and young people with whom they work. This expectation is not unlike that placed upon other occupations working directly with people (and young people), such as teachers and social workers. It is a reasonable societal expectation that workers such as teachers, social workers and youthworkers, should provide a service of a certain standard, commensurate with the responsibility ascribed to the role of that occupation. Education and training is recognised as being fundamental to the attainment of recognised standards of competency in both teaching and social work, as well as many other occupations which have a direct service delivery role with people. A spectrum of such opportunities have been developed and provided for these occupations. There is an expectation that the practice of such occupations is fundamentally linked with the education and training provided. However, this has not been so with the youthwork occupation. The provision of education and training has not grown with the expansion in the occupation. Furthermore, the linkage between education and training, and practice, was not recognised in this field for many years. Questions about how and why this has occurred, and how and by whom it should be redressed, are to be explored in this Study. That youthwork is an occupation is a fact. There are thousands of youthworkers employed around Australia. This Study asserts that the provision of education and training opportunities provided for this occupation are inadequate in general. A cohesive policy framework for such provision is also lacking. Australian society sanctions the occupation of youthwork by providing millions of dollars of resources per annum. It expects, rightly so, a quality standard of performance from the occupation, and services who are employers. Monitoring through formal evaluation and the application of performance indicators are part and parcel of such resource allocation. But, the means to achieve such quality standards - education and training - have not been adequately recognised or provided. This situation is clearly anomalous, and must therefore be addressed and resolved.

This study researched two major aspects of the primary school principalship in the Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory viz., (1) How current trends in educational governance have affected the role of the principal, and (2) Assessment and selection procedures used for promotion to the principalship in the present educational environment. The context of the study has been outlined by presenting a brief historical and organisational overview of public education in both Territories, along with an examination of the literature on recent trends and issues in educational governance and promotion procedures. The research methodology used to examine the questions posed in this study is qualitative or descriptive in nature. The data was collected through the use of a semistructured interview technique and represents the ideas, opinions and perceptions of a specially targeted group of principals and aspiring principals from both education systems. The findings demonstrated that many aspects of the role of the primary principalship in the N.T. and A.C.T. are changing, due to a new set of values in educational policymaking and increased political control. There was a high degree of similarity between respondents in each Territory in regard to how the role is being reshaped. It was also found that the level of support provided by both systems to assist principals in coping with the changes has been inadequate and that the changes have led to a degree of conflict and new job-related pressures for most primary school principals. It was concluded that assessment and selection procedures should be rigorous and demanding, commensurate with the significance of the position. In this regard both educational systems need to improve present procedures by addressing perceived weaknesses. To this end assessment centres may have a role to play. Finally, further implications of the conclusions are addressed in terms of the necessity for thorough preparation and training of aspirants to the principalship to enhance their chance of selection and help them cope with the new expectations and demands of the position. This responsibility should be shared between the aspirant, professional associations and the employing education department.

The research in this thesis attempts to study the ACT Institute of Technical and Further Education's marketing strategy, and it addresses a particular situation at a specific time. The research was undertaken in two studies. The first,through the use of a marketing audit, was focused on three key marketing areas within the Institute to indicate its overall marketing strategy. The second study involved a questionnaire to ascertain the effectiveness awareness of the Institute's advertising. The researcher first presents an historical review and an ordering of the historical aspects to illuminate the past and the current marketing posture of the ACT Institute of Technical and Further Education (ACTITAFE). The data are presented through four distinct historical periods from the establishment of the organisation in 1921 to 1991. Although technical and further education in the ACT has a history in excess of sixty years, data revealed that there is no clear evidence of a formal marketing strategy. The marketing audit interviews collected information from a broad but representative sample of eighteen staff members of the institution who are involved with marketing, media, career advice, publicity and similar marketing activities. The results revealed ACTITAFE has no formal marketing strategy. The attitude toward marketing and the marketplace has been ad hoc, uncoordinated, disjointed and reactive in its approach. Its principal approach is a reliance on awareness advertising. Because of the emphasis placed on advertising as the Institute's major concept for marketing, a questionnaire was distributed on advertising effectiveness and data were obtained from 252 completed responses. The results obtained from this study indicated that over the years the Institute has successfully built advertising awareness. Currently, it has no formal structured marketing strategy. The approach appears to be ad hoc, disjointed and uncoordinated. There are positive attempts to rectify this posture. However, the evidence available suggests that the journey will not be easy and the transition will not be rapid.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the implementation of curriculum policy regarding eight key learning areas in ACT government high schools with particular analysis concerning the Arts. The study sought to identify the discrepance between school curriculum policy and timetable allocation to the mandated curriculum areas. Analysis of time allocation to learning areas as defined by the timetable allocation of time was considered to be an appropriate method of examining curriculum practice in ACT government high schools. Fifteen ACT government high school timetables were analysed in conjunction with school curriculum documentation. Mandatory time requirements for the eight key learning areas was identified. Timetable structures were analysed in terms of allocation of time to key learning areas, pastoral care, assemblies, activities and electives. Formulae were developed in order to make comparisons between schools possible. Results indicated that disparities existed between time allocation to key learning areas within key learning areas and mandatory time (i.e. minimum guaranteed access time) requirements for key learning areas.

Drug use and misuse by young people is a problem and concern in the Australian and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) communities. There are concerns regarding illicit and licit drugs but licit drug use has been identified as the major area of concern. Young people in the ACT reflect the drug use/misuse patterns and trends of other states. Commonly used drugs by young people are alcohol, tobacco, cannabis and analgesics. Strategies to address the problem of drug use/misuse by young people include intervention and community drug education programs. Peer drug education (as an example of community drug education), trains young people as peer educators to implement drug education programs with younger age groups. A case study analysis based on qualitative, naturalistic and new paradigm research is the research method used in this thesis. An eclectic model of drug education including key components from a variety of drug education models provides a comprehensive overview of peer drug education. The literature review showed the complexity of influences on drug use/misuse. These influences relate to individual, peer, parental and family, community and societal factors. Peer drug education is generally recognised as an effective drug education strategy. Peer drug education programs (Triple T: Teenagers Teaching Teenagers) were conducted in the ACT from 1988-1990. Reports documenting these programs (including evaluation data) and a literative review are the main data analysed for the case study. The case study analysis of five ACT peer drug education programs and one interstate program showed the key planning issues for effective peer drug education were: collaborative decision making as a central concept; detailed planning and liaison with target groups; established structures within schools and communities to support the trained peer educators; team work and small group work as intrinsic and extrinsic factors within the program; clarification of responsibilities and roles of all personnel involved in the program; and facilitators/leaders with attributes and qualities that encourage peer drug educators as social change agents. Analysis of data from the case study reports showed young people can be effective peer drug educators. Residential programs are preferred over non-residential programs. Peer drug education programs are effective in both school and community agencies. The literature review and analysis of reports also indicated that peer drug education needs to focus on establishing positive norms in groups of young people. Collaborative decision making and positive role modelling assist in the establishment of these norms. Peer drug education links to the wider changes occurring in education and health settings. Peer drug education is about collaborative decision making, social justice, development of key competencies and social change. This thesis confirmed the complexity and dynamic nature of peer drug education and there were many questions raised for further research from the literature review and analysis of program reports.

Polycentric city regions are expanding worldwide, often spanning national borders. Using literature review and document research, comparative case studies of regional planning of Australia’s emerging internal trans-border city regions are presented. The paper examines fifty years of trans-border planning efforts at three urbanizing borders of the Australian state of New South Wales, demonstrating different levels of commitment and success, partly depending on the proximity (or remoteness) of each trans-border city region to the capital cities in each state or territory. Evidence is provided that effective trans-border planning of city regions depends on overcoming differing levels of commitment to trans-border planning by the state jurisdictions involved.

IT managers within financial institutions must understand and be able to respond to the operational, financial and regulatory impacts that will result from a loss of critical business functions. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, through the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has circulated a consultative paper which, if eventually adopted by nation-state bank supervisors, will impose an operational risk capital charge on banks as part of the new Capital Accord. Banks will also be required to record and report operational risk occurrences or events. This paper presents data on aspects of the disaster risk management practices of banks operating within the Australian financial system. The data indicate that banks, as a group, do not maintain effective disaster risk management practices and are not adequately prepared to recover a loss of critical business functions. The results clearly support the necessity of the BIS initiatives.

The development and modernization of societies define new approaches in managing human resources and, in particular, their characteristic - human capital. There is a growing need for its study and characterization and analysis of the extent to which it is crucial for the economic development of European regions, particularly Bulgaria. Human capital is a specific public resource phenomenon that creates added value based on education, knowledge, skills, intelligence, acquired professional experience, and many other components. The object of study is the targeted promotion of these components through public policies, programs, and initiatives, which creates prerequisites for improving the regions' overall economic performance. The authors set the task to analyze the stated public policies presented in the integrated territorial strategies to develop the planning regions, emphasizing the specific dimensions of human capital management in the different territories.

[This Proceedings paper was revised and published in the 2019 issue of the journal Issues in Informing Science and Information Technology, Volume 16] Aim/purpose The purpose of this article is to discuss the psychosocial and emotional outcomes of an introductory health science workshop designed to support and assist incoming health science students before starting their university study. Background For the past two decades, a South Australian university offered an on-campus face to face workshop titled ‘Preparation for Health Sciences’ to incoming first-year students from eleven allied health programs such as Nursing, Physiotherapy and Medical Imaging. While many were locals, a good number came from regional and rural areas, and many were international students also. They consisted of both on-campus and off-campus students. The workshop was created as a new learning environment that was available for students of diverse age groups, educational and cultural backgrounds to prepare them to study sciences. The content of the four-day workshop was developed in consultation with the program directors of the allied health programs. The objectives were to: introduce the assumed foundational science knowledge to undertake health sciences degree; gain confidence in approaching science subjects; experience lectures and laboratory activities; and become familiar with the University campus and its facilities. The workshop was delivered a week before the orientation week, before first-year formal teaching weeks. The topics covered were enhancing study skills, medical and anatomical terminology, body systems, basic chemistry and physics, laboratory activities, and assessment of learning. Methodology In order to determine the outcomes of the workshop, a survey was used requiring participants to agree or disagree about statements concerning the preparatory course and answer open-ended questions relating to the most important information learned and the best aspects of the workshop. Several students piloted this questionnaire before use in order to ascertain the clarity of instructions, terminology and statements. The result of the 2015-2018 pre- and post-evaluation showed that the workshop raised confidence and enthusiasm in commencing university and that the majority considered the workshop useful overall. The findings of the survey are drawn upon to examine the psychosocial and emotional impacts of the workshop on participants. Using secondary qualitative analysis, the researchers identified the themes relating to the psychosocial and emotional issues conveyed by the participants. Contribution The contributions of the article are in the areas of improving students’ confidence to complete their university degrees and increasing the likelihood of academic success. Findings Of the 285 students who participated in the workshops from 2015 to 2018, 166 completed the survey conducted at the conclusion of the initiative, representing a 58% response rate. The workshops achieved the objectives outlined at the outset. While there were many findings reported (Thalluri, 2016), the results highlighted in this paper relate to the psychosocial and emotional impacts of the workshop on students. Three themes emerged, and these were Increased preparedness and confidence; Networking and friendships that enhanced support, and Reduced anxiety to study sciences. Some drawbacks were also reported including the cost, time and travel involved. Recommendations for practitioners Students found the introductory workshop to be psychosocially and emotionally beneficial. It is recommended that the same approach be applied for teaching other challenging fields such as mathematics and physics within the university and in other contexts and institutions. Recommendations for researchers Improving and extending the workshop to provide greater accessibility and autonomy is recommended. A longitudinal study to follow up the durability of the workshop is also proposed. Impact on society The impacts in the broader community include: higher academic success for students; improved mental health due to social networking and friendship groups and reduced anxiety and fear; reduced dropout rate in their first year; greater potential to complete educational degrees; reduced wastage in human and financial resources; and increased human capital. Future research Addressing the limitations of cost, time and travel involved, and following-up with the participants’ academic and workplace performance are future directions for research.

Socioeconomically disadvantaged students (i.e. those whose scores on a constructed measure of social and cultural capital are below a specified cut-off, usually the 25th percentile) have been found to be more likely to drop out of school, repeat a grade, achieve lower levels at senior secondary school, and score lower on tests such as the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). Despite this association between socioeconomic disadvantage and poorer outcomes related to education, a percentage of students who come from disadvantaged backgrounds enjoy success at school. This apparent success despite the odds is of interest to researchers and educators alike – what, if any, characteristics do these academically resilient students share, why might this be and what can we learn from this group of students, however small, that might assist in improving outcomes for all students, regardless of their socioeconomic background?

The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) is an international comparative study of student achievement directed by the International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement (IEA). TIMSS was first conducted in 1995 and the assessment conducted in 2019 formed the seventh cycle, providing 24 years of trends in mathematics and science achievement at Year 4 and Year 8. In Australia, TIMSS is managed by the Australian Council for Educational Research (ACER) and is jointly funded by the Australian Government and the state and territory governments. The goal of TIMSS is to provide comparative information about educational achievement across countries in order to improve teaching and learning in mathematics and science. TIMSS is based on a research model that uses the curriculum, within context, as its foundation. TIMSS is designed, broadly, to align with the mathematics and science curricula used in the participating education systems and countries, and focuses on assessment at Year 4 and Year 8. TIMSS also provides important data about students’ contexts for learning mathematics and science based on questionnaires completed by students and their parents, teachers and school principals. This report presents the results for Australia as a whole, for the Australian states and territories and for the other participants in TIMSS 2019, so that Australia’s results can be viewed in an international context, and student performance can be monitored over time. The results from TIMSS, as one of the assessments in the National Assessment Program, allow for nationally comparable reports of student outcomes against the Melbourne Declaration on Educational Goals for Young Australians. (Ministerial Council on Education, Employment, Training and Youth Affairs, 2008).

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.