Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Australia Manufactures Econometric models'
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1
Rushton, Michael. "Two models of dynamic input demand : estimates with Canadian manufacturing data." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/30844.
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Over the past decade there has been a number of innovations in the estimation of input demand equations. In particular, ways of incorporating the hypothesis of rational expectations into empirical models of the firm have been developed and improved upon.
This research agenda was perhaps inspired by the Lucas critique of econometric policy evaluation, which suggested that econometric models which did not explicitly take account of how expectations of the future affect current behaviour would give misleading results regarding the possible effects of various government policies. Lucas specifically directed part of his critique at empirical models of business investment, which had been used previously in the assessment of tax policies designed to affect investment.
This thesis has a dual purpose. First, two distinct models of input demand are estimated with Canadian manufacturing data. Each of the models incorporates to some degree the hypothesis of rational expectations, but the specifications of technology differ. Neither of these models, to our knowledge, has been estimated with Canadian data. We are interested in whether either model explains well the behaviour of the Canadian manufacturing sector, and in how the results compare with the (few) U.S. applications of this type of model.
The second purpose is to use the results of these models in simulations to assess the effect of changes to the after-tax
rental rate of capital on investment and employment in manufacturing. While there have been studies in Canada (and elsewhere) that attempt to calculate the effects of various tax policies on investment, most studies were done prior to the innovation of techniques in estimating models with rational expectations. This thesis is able to examine the effects of a particular change while remaining immune to the Lucas critique. If the modelling of expectations is correct, this could not only improve the reliability of the estimates, but also give some indication of the empirical importance of the Lucas critique.
The results can be summarized as follows. The two models give very different estimates of price elasticities of demand for capital and labour, even though they are similar in many respects and are estimated with a common data set. It is also the case that their estimates of the effects of temporary and permanent changes to the rental rate are different. Adjusting the reduced form parameters of the input demand equations to account for changes in tax policy regimes alters the results to a significant degree, suggesting that the explicit modelling of expectations matters in an empirically relevant sense. However, these effects are in opposite directions for the two models considered here. All this suggests that more research is required into the relationship between expectations of future policy and investment behaviour.Arts, Faculty of
Vancouver School of Economics
Graduate
2
Limkriangkrai, Manapon. "An empirical investigation of asset-pricing models in Australia." University of Western Australia. Faculty of Business, 2007. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2007.0197.
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[Truncated abstract] This thesis examines competing asset-pricing models in Australia with the goal of establishing the model which best explains cross-sectional stock returns. The research employs Australian equity data over the period 1980-2001, with the major analyses covering the more recent period 1990-2001. The study first documents that existing asset-pricing models namely the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and domestic Fama-French three-factor model fail to meet the widely applied Merton?s zero-intercept criterion for a well-specified pricing model. This study instead documents that the US three-factor model provides the best description of Australian stock returns. The three US Fama-French factors are statistically significant for the majority of portfolios consisting of large stocks. However, no significant coefficients are found for portfolios in the smallest size quintile. This result initially suggests that the largest firms in the Australian market are globally integrated with the US market while the smallest firms are not. Therefore, the evidence at this point implies domestic segmentation in the Australian market. This is an unsatisfying outcome, considering that the goal of this research is to establish the pricing model that best describes portfolio returns. Given pervasive evidence that liquidity is strongly related to stock returns, the second part of the major analyses derives and incorporates this potentially priced factor to the specified pricing models ... This study also introduces a methodology for individual security analysis, which implements the portfolio analysis, in this part of analyses. The technique makes use of visual impressions conveyed by the histogram plots of coefficients' p-values. A statistically significant coefficient will have its p-values concentrated at below a 5% level of significance; a histogram of p-values will not have a uniform distribution ... The final stage of this study employs daily return data as an examination of what is indeed the best pricing model as well as to provide a robustness check on monthly return results. The daily result indicates that all three US Fama-French factors, namely the US market, size and book-to-market factors as well as LIQT are statistically significant, while the Australian three-factor model only exhibits one significant market factor. This study has discovered that it is in fact the US three-factor model with LIQT and not the domestic model, which qualifies for the criterion of a well-specified asset-pricing model and that it best describes Australian stock returns.
3
Eadie, Edward Norman. "Small resource stock share price behaviour and prediction." Title page, contents and abstract only, 2002. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09CM/09cme11.pdf.
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Marshall, Peter John 1960. "Rational versus anchored traders : exchange rate behaviour in macro models." Monash University, Dept. of Economics, 2001. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/9048.
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Enzinger, Sharn Emma 1973. "The economic impact of greenhouse policy upon the Australian electricity industry : an applied general equilibrium analysis." Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies, 2001. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/8383.
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Forrester, David Edward Economics Australian School of Business UNSW. "Market probability density functions and investor risk aversion for the australia-us dollar exchange rate." Awarded by:University of New South Wales. School of Economics, 2006. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/27199.
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This thesis models the Australian-US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate with particular attention being paid to investor risk aversion. Accounting for investor risk aversion in AUD/USD exchange rate modelling is novel, so too is the method used to measure risk aversion in this thesis. Investor risk aversion is measured using a technique developed in Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004), which makes use of Probability Density Functions (PDFs) extracted from option markets. More conventional approaches use forward-market pricing or Uncovered Interest Parity. Several methods of estimating PDFs from option and spot markets are examined, with the estimations from currency spot-markets representing an original application of an arbitrage technique developed in Stutzer (1996) to the AUD/USD exchange rate. The option and spot-market PDFs are compared using their first four moments and if estimated judiciously, the spot-market PDFs are found to have similar shapes to the option-market PDFs. So in the absence of an AUD/USD exchange rate options market, spot-market PDFs can act as a reasonable substitute for option-market PDFs for the purpose of examining market sentiment. The Relative Risk Aversion (RRA) attached to the AUD/USD, the US Dollar-Japanese Yen, the US Dollar-Swiss Franc and the US-Canadian Dollar exchange rates is measured using the Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004) technique. Amongst these exchange rates, only the AUD/USD exchange rate demonstrates a significant level of investor RRA and only over a weekly forecast horizon. The Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004) technique is also used to approximate a time-varying risk premium for the AUD/USD exchange rate. This risk premium is added to the cointegrating vectors of fixed-price and asset monetary models of the AUD/USD exchange rate. An index of Australia???s export commodity prices is also added. The out-of-sample forecasting ability of these cointegrating vectors is tested relative to a random walk using an error-correction framework. While adding the time-varying risk premium improves this forecasting ability, adding export commodity prices does so by more. Further, including both the time-varying risk premium and export commodity prices in the cointegrating vectors reduces their forecasting ability. So the time-varying risk premium is important for AUD/USD exchange rate modelling, but not as important as export commodity prices.
7
Kummerow, Max F. "A paradigm of inquiry for applied real estate research : integrating econometric and simulation methods in time and space specific forecasting models : Australian office market case study." Thesis, Curtin University, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/1574.
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Office space oversupply cost Australia billions of dollars during the 1990-92 recession. Australia, the United States, Japan, the U.K., South Africa, China, Thailand, and many other countries have suffered office oversupply cycles. Illiquid untenanted office buildings impair investors capital and cash flows, with adverse effects on macroeconomics, financial institutions, and individuals. This study aims to develop improved methods for medium term forecasting of office market adjustments to inform individual project development decisions and thereby to mitigate office oversupply cycles. Methods combine qualitative research, econometric estimation, system dynamics simulation, and institutional economics. This research operationalises a problem solving research paradigm concept advocated by Ken Lusht. The research is also indebted to the late James Graaskamp, who was successful in linking industry and academic research through time and space specific feasibility studies to inform individual property development decisions. Qualitative research and literature provided a list of contributing causes of office oversupply including random shocks, faulty forecasting methods, fee driven deals, prisoners dilemma game, system dynamics (lags and adjustment times), land use regulation, and capital market issues. Rather than choosing among these, they are all considered to be causal to varying degrees. Moreover, there is synergy between combinations of these market imperfections. Office markets are complex evolving human designed systems (not time invariant) so each cycle has unique historical features. Data on Australian office markets were used to estimate office rent adjustment equations. Simulation models in spreadsheet and system dynamics software then integrate additional information with the statistical results to produce demand, supply, and rent forecasts. Results include models for rent forecasting and models for analysis related to policy and system redesign. The dissertation ends with two chapters on institutional reforms whereby better information might find application to improve market efficiency.Keywords. Office rents, rent adjustment, office market modelling, forecasting, system dynamics.
8
Ji, Inyeob Economics Australian School of Business UNSW. "Essays on testing some predictions of RBC models and the stationarity of real interest rates." Publisher:University of New South Wales. Economics, 2008. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/41441.
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This dissertation contains a series of essays that provide empirical evidence for Australia on some fundamental predictions of real business cycle models and on the convergence and persistence of real interest rates. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to the issues examined in each chapter and provides an overview of the methodologies that are used. Tests of various basic predictions of standard real business cycle models for Australia are presented in Chapters 2, 3 and 4. Chapter 2 considers the question of great ratios for Australia. These are ratios of macroeconomic variables that are predicted by standard models to be stationary in the steady state. Using time series econometric techniques (unit root tests and cointegration tests) Australia great ratios are examined. In Chapter 3 a more restrictive implication of real business cycle models than the existence of great ratios is considered. Following the methodology proposed by Canova, Finn and Pagan (1994) the equilibrium decision rules for some standard real business cycle are tested on Australian data. The final essay on this topic is presented in Chapter 4. In this chapter a large-country, small-country is used to try and understand the reason for the sharp rise in Australia??s share of world output that began around 1990. Chapter 5 discusses real interest rate linkages in the Pacific Basin region. Vector autoregressive models and bootstrap methods are adopted to study financial linkages between East Asian markets, Japan and US. Given the apparent non-stationarity of real interest rates a related issue is examined in Chapter 6, viz. the persistence of international real interest rates and estimation of their half-life. Half-life is selected as a means of measuring persistence of real rates. Bootstrap methods are employed to overcome small sample issues in the estimation and a non-standard statistical inference methodology (Highest Density Regions) is adopted. Chapter 7 reapplies the High Density Regions methodology and bootstrap half-life estimation to the data used in Chapters 2 and 5. This provides a robustness check on the results of standard unit root tests that were applied to the data in those chapters. Main findings of the thesis are as follows. The long run implications of real business cycle models are largely rejected by the Australia data. This finding holds for both the existence of great ratios and when the explicit decision rules are employed. When the small open economy features of the Australian economy are incorporated in a two country RBC model, a country-specific productivity boom seems to provide a possible explanation for the rise in Australia??s share of world output. The essays that examine real interest rates suggest the following results. Following the East Asian financial crisis in 1997-98 there appears to have been a decline in the importance of Japan in influencing developments in the Pacific Basin region. In addition there is evidence that following the crisis Korea??s financial market became less insular and more integrated with the US. Finally results obtained from the half-life estimators suggest that despite the usual findings from unit root tests, real interest rates may in fact exhibit mean-reversion.
9
Kummerow, Max F. "A paradigm of inquiry for applied real estate research : integrating econometric and simulation methods in time and space specific forecasting models : Australian office market case study." Curtin University of Technology, School of Economics and Finance, 1997. http://espace.library.curtin.edu.au:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=11274.
Full textAbstract:
Office space oversupply cost Australia billions of dollars during the 1990-92 recession. Australia, the United States, Japan, the U.K., South Africa, China, Thailand, and many other countries have suffered office oversupply cycles. Illiquid untenanted office buildings impair investors capital and cash flows, with adverse effects on macroeconomics, financial institutions, and individuals. This study aims to develop improved methods for medium term forecasting of office market adjustments to inform individual project development decisions and thereby to mitigate office oversupply cycles. Methods combine qualitative research, econometric estimation, system dynamics simulation, and institutional economics. This research operationalises a problem solving research paradigm concept advocated by Ken Lusht. The research is also indebted to the late James Graaskamp, who was successful in linking industry and academic research through time and space specific feasibility studies to inform individual property development decisions. Qualitative research and literature provided a list of contributing causes of office oversupply including random shocks, faulty forecasting methods, fee driven deals, prisoners dilemma game, system dynamics (lags and adjustment times), land use regulation, and capital market issues. Rather than choosing among these, they are all considered to be causal to varying degrees. Moreover, there is synergy between combinations of these market imperfections. Office markets are complex evolving human designed systems (not time invariant) so each cycle has unique historical features. Data on Australian office markets were used to estimate office rent adjustment equations. Simulation models in spreadsheet and system dynamics software then integrate additional information with the statistical results to produce demand, supply, and rent forecasts. Results include ++models for rent forecasting and models for analysis related to policy and system redesign. The dissertation ends with two chapters on institutional reforms whereby better information might find application to improve market efficiency.Keywords. Office rents, rent adjustment, office market modelling, forecasting, system dynamics.
10
Yang, Wenling. "M-GARCH Hedge Ratios And Hedging Effectiveness In Australian Futures Markets." Thesis, Edith Cowan University, Research Online, Perth, Western Australia, 2000. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/1530.
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This study deals with the estimation of the optimal hedge ratios using various econometric models. Most of the recent papers have demonstrated that the conventional ordinary least squares (OLS) method of estimating constant hedge ratios is inappropriate, other more complicated models however seem to produce no more efficient hedge ratios. Using daily AOIs and SPI futures on the Australian market, optimal hedge ratios are calculated from four different models: the OLS regression model, the bivariate vector autoaggressive model (BVAR), the error-correction model (ECM) and the multivariate diagonal Vcc GARCH Model. The performance of each hedge ratio is then compared. The hedging effectiveness is measured in terms of ex-post and ex-ante risk-return traHe-off at various forcasting horizons. It is generally found that the GARCH time varying hedge ratios provide the greatest portfolio risk reduction, particularly for longer hedging horizons, but hey so not generate the highest portfolio return.
11
O'Grady, Thomas A. "The profitability of technical analysis and stock returns from a traditional and bootstrap perspective : evidence from Australia, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand." Thesis, Edith Cowan University, Research Online, Perth, Western Australia, 2012. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/506.
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This research questions whether technical trading rules can help predict stock price movements for a sample of stocks selected from four equity markets from the Asia-Pacific region: Australia, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Thailand for the period 1989-2008. The research is split into two stages. Stage-1 of the research tests the predictability of technical trading rules against a buyand- hold strategy. The variable moving average (VMA), fixed moving average (FMA) and the trading range break (TRB) trading rules are applied to this research. Economic predictability of these rules is examined by comparing returns conditional on a trading rule buy (sell) signal against an unconditional buy-and-hold return. Any existence of excess returns can thus be established. This follows with a statistical analysis of returns using a traditional t-test methodology. Traditional statistical tests assume normally distributed returns with independent observations and a non-changing distribution across time. In Stage-2 of this research a bootstrap checks whether features such as non-normality, time-varying moments and serial correlation bias test statistics. The bootstrap involves assumptions regarding the underlying returns generating process (RGP) and allows returns conditional on a trading rule buy (sell) signal from the original stock price series to be compared with conditional returns simulated from four common null models: RW, AR (1), GARCH-M and E-GARCH models. Simulated p-values are calculated in conjunction with simulated distributions and are applied in lieu of the theoretical normal distribution. Given this process it is possible to infer as to whether non-linear dependencies in returns can be captured by any of the three trading rules. Given the null model output standard t-test outcomes of predictability of technical trading rules may be diminished and/or eliminated. Conclusions are drawn as to the predictability and profitability of the VMA, FMA and TRB trading rules when applied to the chosen stock samples. Findings of this research indicate returns conditional on technical trading rules exceed unconditional buy-and-hold returns for all stocks. Thai sample output indicates strong support in favour of the predictability of standard test results supporting the use of technical trading rules. Output for Australia, Hong Kong and Malaysia indicates that previous standard t-test outcomes of predictability may be diminished and/or eliminated. This implies that the underlying RGP may be characterised by underlying features of some/all of the stochastic models.
12
Duong, Lien Thi Hong. "Australian takeover waves : a re-examination of patterns, causes and consequences." UWA Business School, 2009. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2009.0201.
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This thesis provides more precise characterisation of patterns, causes and consequences of takeover activity in Australia over three decades spanning from 1972 to 2004. The first contribution of the thesis is to characterise the time series behaviour of takeover activity. It is found that linear models do not adequately capture the structure of merger activity; a non-linear two-state Markov switching model works better. A key contribution of the thesis is, therefore, to propose an approach of combining a State-Space model with the Markov switching regime model in describing takeover activity. Experimental results based on our approach show an improvement over other existing approaches. We find four waves, one in the 1980s, two in the 1990s, and one in the 2000s, with an expected duration of each wave state of approximately two years. The second contribution is an investigation of the extent to which financial and macro-economic factors predict takeover activity after controlling for the probability of takeover waves. A main finding is that while stock market boom periods are empirically associated with takeover waves, the underlying driver is interest rate level. A low interest rate environment is associated with higher aggregate takeover activity. This relationship is consistent with Shleifer and Vishny (1992)'s liquidity argument that takeover waves are symptoms of lower cost of capital. Replicating the analysis to the biggest takeover market in the world, the US, reveals a remarkable consistency of results. In short, the Australian findings are not idiosyncratic. Finally, the implications for target and bidder firm shareholders are explored via investigation of takeover bid premiums and long-term abnormal returns separately between the wave and non-wave periods. This represents the third contribution to the literature of takeover waves. Findings reveal that target shareholders earn abnormally positive returns in takeover bids and bid premiums are slightly lower in the wave periods. Analysis of the returns to bidding firm shareholders suggests that the lower premiums earned by target shareholders in the wave periods may simply reflect lower total economic gains, at the margin, to takeovers made in the wave periods. It is found that bidding firms earn normal post-takeover returns (relative to a portfolio of firms matched in size and survival) if their bids are made in the non-wave periods. However, bidders who announce their takeover bids during the wave periods exhibit significant under-performance. For mergers that took place within waves, there is no difference in bid premiums and nor is there a difference in the long-run returns of bidders involved in the first half and second half of the waves. We find that none of theories of merger waves (managerial, mis-valuation and neoclassical) can fully account for the Australian takeover waves and their effects. Instead, our results suggest that a combination of these theories may provide better explanation. Given that normal returns are observed for acquiring firms, taken as a whole, we are more likely to uphold the neoclassical argument for merger activity. However, the evidence is not entirely consistent with neo-classical rational models, the under-performance effect during the wave states is consistent with the herding behaviour by firms.
13
Akmal, Muhammad. "The structure of energy demand in Australia : an econometric investigation with some economic applications." Phd thesis, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/144955.
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Smith, Jeremy Paul Duncan. "Aspects of macroeconometric time series modelling." Phd thesis, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/121824.
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This thesis contains six chapters which investigate different
areas in applied econometrics. The major focus of the study has been
the application of techniques from the applied econometrics
literature to a study of the Australian macroeconomy.
Chapter Two uses a Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model and a
structural model of the Australian economy to discover those
variables responsible for the fluctuations which have buffeted the
Australian economy over the last fifteen years. Despite marked
differences in the appearance of the two models, the results are
similar in predicting how the economy responds to certain shocks.
Chapter Three examines the behaviour of the Australian dollar
over the period since float in December 1983. The analysis shows that
the dollar is over-valued, compared with a level that can maintain a
sustainable debt-GDP ratio . The over-valuation has meant that the
Australian dollar is discounted on the forward market and high
domestic interest rates are necessary to offset the depreciation
expected by foreign investors.
Chapter Four conducts a Monte Carlo analysis to investigate the
performance of alternative estimation methods in equations which
include a generated regressor as an explanatory variable. The results
show that while FIML tends to dominate with an increasing sample
size, in small samples FIML standard errors are downward biased,
leaving Correct OLS as the best estimation method.
Chapter Five further examines the generated regressor problem
using Barro’s (1977) New Classical unemployment model and shows that
the results are robust to the estimation method. However, the results
from the larger model suggested by Pesaran (1982) are sensitive to
the estimation procedure from the larger model suggested by Pesaran (1982) are sensitive to the estimation procedure.
Chapter Six evaluates alternative procedures for converting
qualitative expectation responses to quantitative expectations for
the Australian manufacturing sector and finds that a dynamic
nonlinear model which is a generalisation of the model suggested by
Pesaran (1987) is superior in picking up both turn in g points in the
data and in minimising the forecast error.
Chapter Seven further examines the behaviour of the Australian
manufacturing sector using multivariate cointegration and the derived
quantitative expectations of Chapter Six. The analysis shows that the
role of price variables is much more significant than that of output
in determining employment movements.
15
Morris, Alan Geoffrey. "An economic analysis of industrial disputation in Australia." Thesis, 1996. https://vuir.vu.edu.au/15259/.
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Australia may present a special case in the analysis of strikes because, for most of the Twentieth Century, the Australian Industrial Relations Commission has acted as an industrial "umpire" charged with keeping the industrial peace. We begin with a review of major contributions to the theory of strikes, and reestimations and evaluations of the time-series models of previous Australian researchers. We then develop theoretical models of strikes and non-strike industrial action, stemming from Marshall's (1920) contribution to the theory of wages. If higher real wages lead to lower levels of employment, union demands are likely to be greater, and industrial action more frequent, when the duration of unemployment of retrenched workers is shorter. Important determinants of the opportunity costs of wage demands to employees, are wage losses of retrenched employees during unemployment and in subsequent re-employment. Critical in the union's decision to threaten a strike or a non-strike action, is a permanent loss of market share directly associated with strikes. The model of strikes is tested, along with variables suggested by other theories, using time-series data from the period 3:1959 to 4:1992. We show that the model is robust and out-performs modified versions of other Australian models. We find that the Prices and Incomes Accord is associated with a reduction in strike activity, but that other researchers have over-estimated its impact. Australian Workplace Industrial Relations Survey data is used to produce cross-sectional models of strikes and non-strike actions in unionised workplaces. We test the importance of the opportunity costs of wage demands and strikes, using variables describing the firm's competitive environment and local labour market conditions. Because the objectives of workplaces differ, we estimate separate models for privately owned workplaces, government non-commercial establishments and government business enterprises. All empirical models are broadly consistent with the predictions of our theoretical model.
16
Quang, Doan Hong. "Essays on factor-market distortions and economic growth." Phd thesis, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/147706.
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Nyasha, Sheilla. "Financial development and economic growth : new evidence from six countries." Thesis, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/18576.
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Using 1980 - 2012 annual data, the study empirically investigates the dynamic
relationship between financial development and economic growth in three
developing countries (South Africa, Brazil and Kenya) and three developed countries
(United States of America, United Kingdom and Australia). The study was motivated
by the current debate regarding the role of financial development in the economic
growth process, and their causal relationship. The debate centres on whether
financial development impacts positively or negatively on economic growth and
whether it Granger-causes economic growth or vice versa. To this end, two models
have been used. In Model 1 the impact of bank- and market-based financial
development on economic growth is examined, while in Model 2 it is the causality
between the two that is explored. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)
bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction based causality test,
the results were found to differ from country to country and over time. These results
were also found to be sensitive to the financial development proxy used. Based on
Model 1, the study found that the impact of bank-based financial development on
economic growth is positive in South Africa and the USA, but negative in the U.K –
and neither positive nor negative in Kenya. Elsewhere the results were inconclusive.
Market-based financial development was found to impact positively in Kenya, USA
and the UK but not in the remaining countries. Based on Model 2, the study found
that bank-based financial development Granger-causes economic growth in the UK,
while in Brazil they Granger-cause each other. However, in South Africa, Kenya and
USA no causal relationship was found. In Australia the results were inconclusive.
The study also found that in the short run, market-based financial development
Granger-causes economic growth in the USA but that in South Africa and Brazil, the
reverse applies. On the other hand bidirectional causality was found to prevail in
Kenya in the same period.Economics
DCOM (Economics)
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Belicka, Samuel. "Trade patterns and determinants in selected trade deficit categories in Australia: 1990-2006." Thesis, 2010. https://vuir.vu.edu.au/16005/.
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The Australian Trade Deficit (TD) has been increasing in the past 50 years, and this deficit has become more significant in the last few decades. This rising TD level in Australia has brought the national debt level to a new height, making this country one of the world‟s highest debt-ridden countries. The most alarming fact associated with these trends is that Australia‟s ability to service the increasing debt levels in the future has been diminishing since the increasing debt levels in Australia have been predominantly used for Consumption (C) rather than for gross capital formation. The diminishing ability to service the increasing debt levels in Australia is due to the fact that the TD level is increasing as a proportion of the Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while the Australian gross capital formation as a proportion of the Australian debt is one of the lowest amongst the major debtor countries in the world.
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Jiang, Qiang. "Three essays on water modelling and management in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia." Phd thesis, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/151262.
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The primary contributions of this thesis are the economic studies of proposed water use reductions and climate change, and the development of an integrated hydro-economic model for the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. This water model not only simulates the land and water use in the Basin, but also optimises these uses for certain targets such as environmental flows. More importantly, this model can be applied to evaluate policy options for the Basin, such as water buybacks, and provide estimates of the possible impacts of climate change.
The thesis consists of three main essays focusing on issues in water modelling and management in the Basin. The first essay describes the development of a water model. This model is applied to estimate the impacts of water use reductions in the second essay; and climate change in the third essay. Other issues related to the Basin's water management, such as a review of existing water modelling, the background of the Basin, water trading, possible policy implementations and future research are also discussed.
The first essay (Chapter 4) describes the construction of the Integrated Irrigated Water Model (IIA WM) including the structure of llA WM and the data sources. Using the latest hydrological data and revised catchment boundaries, llA WM can simulate and optimise land and water use in the Basin. To address the criticism that existing models have failed to consider water trading barriers, the physical constraints on water trading have been incorporated in llA WM. The model can also evaluate various water policies and estimate the impacts of physical condition changes.
The second essay (Chapter 5) evaluates the impacts of proposed water use reductions by the Australian government. To balance the use of water between irrigated industries and environmental purposes, the Australian government draft plan released October 2010 proposed to reduce the volume of used water in the Basin from 3,000 to 4,000 GL/year. Simulations from IIA WM indicate that the impacts from proposed water use reductions will be modest, although there may be substantial impacts in particular locations.
The third essay (Chapter 6) investigates the impacts of climate change in the Basin. A full range of climate change scenarios from modest to severe have been applied using IIA WM. This thesis finds that with water trading, profit reductions are substantially smaller than the water use reductions.