Academic literature on the topic 'Australia Manufactures Econometric models'
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Journal articles on the topic "Australia Manufactures Econometric models"
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Gu, Huaying, and Chaoqun Han. "Analysis of China’s Pure Electric Vehicle Sales Based on Spatial Econometric Models." International Journal of Economics and Finance 13, no. 1 (December 5, 2020): 12. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v13n1p12.
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This paper empirically investigates the spatial dependence and serial correlation structures among different China’s brands of pure electric vehicle (EV) sales using spatial econometric models. Based on the newly proposed economic distance spatial weight matrix, the empirical results show that EV endurance mileage, power battery capacity, charging time, government subsidy, retail price, and each brand market share have important impacts on EV sales. The per capita disposable income of urban households, gasoline price, loan rate and the number of charging pile are statistically significant determinants of EV sales. In particular, the improvements of the number of charging pile and the rise of gasoline price can increase EV sales, while the rise of loan rate or tight monetary policy may increase the consumers’ cost of purchasing EVs and then decrease EV sales. Another interesting finding is that though the per capita disposable income of urban households increases the EV sales decreases. A plausible explanation would seem to be that the impact of the per capita disposable income of urban households on the EV sales is offset by the decline in government subsidies or the incomplete infrastructures such as the inconvenient of charging stations. Besides, the significantly positive spatial dependence and serial correlation exist among EV manufactures indicates that when developing EV sales strategies, EV manufacturers must consider not only the properties of the EVs they produce, but also the properties of similar types of EVs produced by other brands in the EV market.
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Masouman, Ashkan, and Charles Harvie. "Forecasting, impact analysis and uncertainty propagation in regional integrated models: A case study of Australia." Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science 47, no. 1 (April 16, 2018): 65–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2399808318767128.
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The integration of input–output and econometric models at regional level has gained popularity for its superior performance in forecasting employment and examining the impacts of policies. There are a number of approaches to integrate the two models. This paper examines the integration of input–output with econometric modelling using two merging methodologies, namely coupling and holistic embedding. Each methodology is analysed with respect to the accuracy of its results of total and sectoral employment forecasting. Both methodologies are applied to a regional economy in Australia. The methodology which shows superior forecasting accuracy is applied to examine the significance of sectors that generate the highest number of employments relative to other sectors.
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Gavkalova, Nataliia, Yuliia Lola, Svitlana Prokopovych, Oleksandr Akimov, Vainius Smalskys, and Liudmyla Akimova. "Innovative Development of Renewable Energy During The Crisis Period and Its Impact on the Environment." Virtual Economics 5, no. 1 (April 6, 2022): 65–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.34021/ve.2022.05.01(4).
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The article examines the innovative trends in the renewable power generation, taking into account the impact of crises, as well as the impact of renewable energy on air pollution in the world (environmental change). Hierarchical agglomerative and iterative methods of cluster analysis, as well as econometric models were used to test the hypotheses. Carbon dioxide emissions and renewable power generation for 78 countries during 2000-2020 are taken into account as the database of the study. The results showed that there are groups of countries with sharp, high, moderate and low growth rates of renewable power generation. In addition, the results of econometric analysis indicate that the growth of renewable power generation does not always cause a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions. For a number of countries (Australia, Canada, Mexico, Poland) such connection is not essential at all. The results of the study can be useful in shaping and adapting environmental strategies around the world.
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Melikhova, Tetiana, Andriy Makarenko, Olena Mikhailytsa, and Andriy Pozhuyev. "Improvement of bankruptcy probability model based on the analysis of industrial enterprises of Ukraine." SHS Web of Conferences 65 (2019): 06002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20196506002.
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In present work, the peculiarities of simulation model of enterprises bankruptcy probability that exist in European, world and domestic practices were considered. The scientific econometric approach was applied to determine the overall presence and strength of the relation between the economic indicators of industrial enterprises. A financial analysis of large industrial manufactures in the region of Ukraine was conducted. To form the information base of the study, the authors estimated liquidity, solvency, business activity and profitability ratios that affect the financial condition of enterprises. They revealed the most significant ratios of financial condition analysis. According to the analysis of existing models of bankruptcy probability in the context of these industrial enterprises, an improved model for assessing the risk of bankruptcy was proposed and evaluated. The proposed model for estimating the probability of bankruptcy, taking into account the influence of the most significant ratios of financial analysis, confirmed that the percentage of provided bankruptcies and stable activities are acceptable and indicate high quality of the resulting equation. The IBM SPSS Statistics system was used to process the data, check the assumptions and prepare valid conclusions. The improved model will allow it to be used in the practice of diagnosing the probability of bankruptcy of industrial enterprises, which will help identify the threat of bankruptcy in time and ensure stable operation of the industrial enterprise.
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Ma, Le, Chunlu Liu, and Anthony Mills. "Construction labor productivity convergence: a conditional frontier approach." Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management 23, no. 3 (May 16, 2016): 283–301. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ecam-03-2015-0040.
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Purpose – Understanding and simulating construction activities is a vital issue from a macro-perspective, since construction is an important contributor in economic development. Although the construction labor productivity frontier has attracted much research effort, the temporal and regional characteristics have not yet been explored. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-run equilibrium and dynamics within construction development under a conditional frontier context. Design/methodology/approach – Analogous to the simplified production function, this research adopts the conditional frontier theory to investigate the convergence of construction labor productivity across regions and over time. Error correction models are implemented to identify the long-run equilibrium and dynamics of construction labor productivity against three types of convergence hypotheses, while a panel regression method is used to capture the regional heterogeneity. The developed models are applied to investigate and simulate the construction labor productivity in the Australian states and territories. Findings – The results suggest that construction labor productivity in Australia should converge to stable frontiers in a long-run perspective. The dynamics of the productivity are mainly caused by the technology utilization efficiency levels of the local construction industry, while the influences of changes in technology level and capital depending appear limited. Five regional clusters of the Australian construction labor productivity are suggested by the simulation results, including New South Wales; Australian Capital Territory; Northern Territory, Queensland, and Western Australia; South Australia; and Tasmania and Victoria. Originality/value – Three types of frontier of construction labor productivity is proposed. An econometric approach is developed to identify the convergence frontier of construction labor productivity across regions over time. The specified model can provides accurate predictions of the construction labor productivity.
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Kokic, Philip, Rohan Nelson, Holger Meinke, Andries Potgieter, and John Carter. "From rainfall to farm incomes—transforming advice for Australian drought policy. I. Development and testing of a bioeconomic modelling system." Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 58, no. 10 (2007): 993. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/ar06193.
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In this paper we report the development of a bioeconomic modelling system, AgFIRM, designed to help close a relevance gap between climate science and policy in Australia. We do this by making a simple econometric farm income model responsive to seasonal forecasts of crop and pasture growth for the coming season. The key quantitative innovation was the use of multiple and M-quantile regression to calibrate the farm income model, using simulated crop and pasture growth from 2 agroecological models. The results of model testing demonstrated a capability to reliably forecast the direction of movement in Australian farm incomes in July at the beginning of the financial year (July–June). The structure of the model, and the seasonal climate forecasting system used, meant that its predictive accuracy was greatest across Australia’s cropping regions. In a second paper, Nelson et al. (2007, this issue), we have demonstrated how the bioeconomic modelling system developed here could be used to enhance the value of climate science to Australian drought policy.
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Prevedouros, Panos D. "Origin-Specific Visitor Demand Forecasting at Honolulu International Airport." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1600, no. 1 (January 1997): 18–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/1600-03.
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The development of a PC-based and easy-to-use-and-update econometric model system for forecasting arrivals at the Honolulu International Airport is presented. A model system instead of a single model was designed so that differential growth rates from various origins as well as arrivals affected by curfews at the origin or the destination, or both, can be estimated. The airport system of the state facilitates the only mode of transportation into and out of Hawaii. Planning based on reliable demand forecasts is therefore essential. Separate models of arrivals from Australia and New Zealand, Canada, Germany, Korea, and the United Kingdom were specified and estimated using the Cochrane-Orcutt regression method. Several diagnostic tests were employed to arrive at the final models, as problems of correlation (over time) and collinearity (among variables) were present. Independent variables include the gross domestic product, population, monetary exchange rate, and unemployment rate of the origin countries. Historical values for the independent variables were taken from the publications of international organizations. Variables for wars that tend to affect flying security and natural disasters in Hawaii that affect the supply of tourist accommodations were included in the model specifications.
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Ma, Le, Richard Reed, and Jian Liang. "Separating owner-occupier and investor demands for housing in the Australian states." Journal of Property Investment & Finance 37, no. 2 (March 4, 2019): 215–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpif-07-2018-0045.
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PurposeThere has been declining home ownership and increased acceptance of long-term renting in many western countries including Australia; this has created a problem when examining housing markets as there are dual demand and include both owner-occupiers and investors. The purpose of this paper is to examine the long-run relationship between house prices, housing supply and demand, and to estimate the effects of the two types of demand (i.e. owner-occupier and investor) on house prices.Design/methodology/approachThe econometric techniques for cointegration with vector error correction models are used to specify the proposed models, where the housing markets in the Australian states and territories illustrate the models.FindingsThe results highlight the regional long-run equilibrium and associated patterns in house prices, the level of new housing supply, owner-occupier demand for housing and investor demand for housing. Different types of markets were identified.Practical implicationsThe findings suggest that policies that depress the investment demand can effectively prevent the housing bubble from further building up in the Australian states. The empirical findings shed light in the strategy of maintaining levels of housing affordability in regions where owner-occupiers have been priced out of the housing market.Originality/valueThere has been declining home ownership and increased acceptance of long-term renting in many western countries including Australia; this has created a problem when examining housing markets as there are dual demand and include both owner-occupiers and investors. This research has given to the relationship between supply and dual demand, which includes owner-occupation and investment, for housing and the influence on house prices.
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La, Jiezhuoma, and Iryna Heiets. "THE IMPACT OF DIGITALIZATION AND INTELLIGENTIZATION ON AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM." Aviation 25, no. 3 (October 13, 2021): 159–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/aviation.2021.15336.
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This study aims to provide insights into the impact levels of digitalization and intelligentization on air transport system (ATS) in Australia, China, the US, and India. Air transport system is one of the most efficient transport systems which contains three elements: air traffic control, airport, and airlines. In modern society, the importance of digitalization and intelligentization in ATS is attached to by publics. In this study, firstly, comparative analysis is used to analyze the different states of digitalization and intelligentization level and air transport system in sample countries. Then, correlation analysis is used to study the correlation of the different impact factors with the ATS in different countries. The third one is regression analysis, it is used to analyze the relationship between ATS and the development of digitalization and intelligentization in four sample countries. At last, forecasting analysis is used to predict the future trend of digitalization and intelligentization’s impact on ATS in the sample countries in the next few years. Then, the most significant impact factors for ATS will be obtained. Also, the future development trends of ATS under digitalization and intelligentization’s impact could be forecasted by using econometric models.
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de Bekker-Grob, Esther W., Kirsten Howard, and Joffre Swait. "Identifying the impact of social influences in health-related discrete choice experiments." PLOS ONE 17, no. 10 (October 19, 2022): e0276141. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0276141.
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Several disciplines, among them health, sociology, and economics, provide strong evidence that social context is important to individual choices. It is therefore surprising that relatively little research has been focused on integrating the effect of social influence into choice models, especially given the importance of such choices in healthcare. This study developed and empirically tested a choice model that accounts for social network influences in a discrete choice experiment (DCE). We focused on maternal choices for childhood vaccination in Australia, and used an econometric choice model that explicitly 1) incorporated vaccine schedule characteristics, benefits and costs, and 2) represented up to ten different identifiable key influencer types (e.g., partner, parents, friends, healthcare professionals, inter alia), allowing for the attribution of directional importance of each influencer on the gravid woman’s decision to adhere to or reject childhood vaccination. Pregnant women (N = 604) aged 18 years and older recruited from an online panel completed a survey, including a DCE and questions about key influencers. A two-class ordered latent class model was conducted to analyse the DCE data, which assumes that the underlying latent driver (in our case the WHO vaccine hesitancy scale) is ordered, to give a practical interpretation of the meaning of the classes. When the choice model considered both childhood vaccination attributes and key influencers, a very high model fit was reached. The impact of key influencers on maternal choice for childhood vaccination was massive compared to the impact of childhood vaccination attributes. The marginal impact differed between key influencers. Our DCE study showed that the maternal decision for childhood vaccination was essentially almost completely socially driven, suggesting that the potential impact of social network influences can and should be considered in health-related DCEs, particular those where there are likely to be strong underlying social norms dictating decision maker behaviour.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Australia Manufactures Econometric models"
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Rushton, Michael. "Two models of dynamic input demand : estimates with Canadian manufacturing data." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/30844.
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Over the past decade there has been a number of innovations in the estimation of input demand equations. In particular, ways of incorporating the hypothesis of rational expectations into empirical models of the firm have been developed and improved upon.
This research agenda was perhaps inspired by the Lucas critique of econometric policy evaluation, which suggested that econometric models which did not explicitly take account of how expectations of the future affect current behaviour would give misleading results regarding the possible effects of various government policies. Lucas specifically directed part of his critique at empirical models of business investment, which had been used previously in the assessment of tax policies designed to affect investment.
This thesis has a dual purpose. First, two distinct models of input demand are estimated with Canadian manufacturing data. Each of the models incorporates to some degree the hypothesis of rational expectations, but the specifications of technology differ. Neither of these models, to our knowledge, has been estimated with Canadian data. We are interested in whether either model explains well the behaviour of the Canadian manufacturing sector, and in how the results compare with the (few) U.S. applications of this type of model.
The second purpose is to use the results of these models in simulations to assess the effect of changes to the after-tax
rental rate of capital on investment and employment in manufacturing. While there have been studies in Canada (and elsewhere) that attempt to calculate the effects of various tax policies on investment, most studies were done prior to the innovation of techniques in estimating models with rational expectations. This thesis is able to examine the effects of a particular change while remaining immune to the Lucas critique. If the modelling of expectations is correct, this could not only improve the reliability of the estimates, but also give some indication of the empirical importance of the Lucas critique.
The results can be summarized as follows. The two models give very different estimates of price elasticities of demand for capital and labour, even though they are similar in many respects and are estimated with a common data set. It is also the case that their estimates of the effects of temporary and permanent changes to the rental rate are different. Adjusting the reduced form parameters of the input demand equations to account for changes in tax policy regimes alters the results to a significant degree, suggesting that the explicit modelling of expectations matters in an empirically relevant sense. However, these effects are in opposite directions for the two models considered here. All this suggests that more research is required into the relationship between expectations of future policy and investment behaviour.Arts, Faculty of
Vancouver School of Economics
Graduate
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Limkriangkrai, Manapon. "An empirical investigation of asset-pricing models in Australia." University of Western Australia. Faculty of Business, 2007. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2007.0197.
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[Truncated abstract] This thesis examines competing asset-pricing models in Australia with the goal of establishing the model which best explains cross-sectional stock returns. The research employs Australian equity data over the period 1980-2001, with the major analyses covering the more recent period 1990-2001. The study first documents that existing asset-pricing models namely the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and domestic Fama-French three-factor model fail to meet the widely applied Merton?s zero-intercept criterion for a well-specified pricing model. This study instead documents that the US three-factor model provides the best description of Australian stock returns. The three US Fama-French factors are statistically significant for the majority of portfolios consisting of large stocks. However, no significant coefficients are found for portfolios in the smallest size quintile. This result initially suggests that the largest firms in the Australian market are globally integrated with the US market while the smallest firms are not. Therefore, the evidence at this point implies domestic segmentation in the Australian market. This is an unsatisfying outcome, considering that the goal of this research is to establish the pricing model that best describes portfolio returns. Given pervasive evidence that liquidity is strongly related to stock returns, the second part of the major analyses derives and incorporates this potentially priced factor to the specified pricing models ... This study also introduces a methodology for individual security analysis, which implements the portfolio analysis, in this part of analyses. The technique makes use of visual impressions conveyed by the histogram plots of coefficients' p-values. A statistically significant coefficient will have its p-values concentrated at below a 5% level of significance; a histogram of p-values will not have a uniform distribution ... The final stage of this study employs daily return data as an examination of what is indeed the best pricing model as well as to provide a robustness check on monthly return results. The daily result indicates that all three US Fama-French factors, namely the US market, size and book-to-market factors as well as LIQT are statistically significant, while the Australian three-factor model only exhibits one significant market factor. This study has discovered that it is in fact the US three-factor model with LIQT and not the domestic model, which qualifies for the criterion of a well-specified asset-pricing model and that it best describes Australian stock returns.
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Eadie, Edward Norman. "Small resource stock share price behaviour and prediction." Title page, contents and abstract only, 2002. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09CM/09cme11.pdf.
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Marshall, Peter John 1960. "Rational versus anchored traders : exchange rate behaviour in macro models." Monash University, Dept. of Economics, 2001. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/9048.
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Enzinger, Sharn Emma 1973. "The economic impact of greenhouse policy upon the Australian electricity industry : an applied general equilibrium analysis." Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies, 2001. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/8383.
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Forrester, David Edward Economics Australian School of Business UNSW. "Market probability density functions and investor risk aversion for the australia-us dollar exchange rate." Awarded by:University of New South Wales. School of Economics, 2006. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/27199.
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This thesis models the Australian-US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate with particular attention being paid to investor risk aversion. Accounting for investor risk aversion in AUD/USD exchange rate modelling is novel, so too is the method used to measure risk aversion in this thesis. Investor risk aversion is measured using a technique developed in Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004), which makes use of Probability Density Functions (PDFs) extracted from option markets. More conventional approaches use forward-market pricing or Uncovered Interest Parity. Several methods of estimating PDFs from option and spot markets are examined, with the estimations from currency spot-markets representing an original application of an arbitrage technique developed in Stutzer (1996) to the AUD/USD exchange rate. The option and spot-market PDFs are compared using their first four moments and if estimated judiciously, the spot-market PDFs are found to have similar shapes to the option-market PDFs. So in the absence of an AUD/USD exchange rate options market, spot-market PDFs can act as a reasonable substitute for option-market PDFs for the purpose of examining market sentiment. The Relative Risk Aversion (RRA) attached to the AUD/USD, the US Dollar-Japanese Yen, the US Dollar-Swiss Franc and the US-Canadian Dollar exchange rates is measured using the Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004) technique. Amongst these exchange rates, only the AUD/USD exchange rate demonstrates a significant level of investor RRA and only over a weekly forecast horizon. The Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004) technique is also used to approximate a time-varying risk premium for the AUD/USD exchange rate. This risk premium is added to the cointegrating vectors of fixed-price and asset monetary models of the AUD/USD exchange rate. An index of Australia???s export commodity prices is also added. The out-of-sample forecasting ability of these cointegrating vectors is tested relative to a random walk using an error-correction framework. While adding the time-varying risk premium improves this forecasting ability, adding export commodity prices does so by more. Further, including both the time-varying risk premium and export commodity prices in the cointegrating vectors reduces their forecasting ability. So the time-varying risk premium is important for AUD/USD exchange rate modelling, but not as important as export commodity prices.
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Kummerow, Max F. "A paradigm of inquiry for applied real estate research : integrating econometric and simulation methods in time and space specific forecasting models : Australian office market case study." Thesis, Curtin University, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/1574.
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Office space oversupply cost Australia billions of dollars during the 1990-92 recession. Australia, the United States, Japan, the U.K., South Africa, China, Thailand, and many other countries have suffered office oversupply cycles. Illiquid untenanted office buildings impair investors capital and cash flows, with adverse effects on macroeconomics, financial institutions, and individuals. This study aims to develop improved methods for medium term forecasting of office market adjustments to inform individual project development decisions and thereby to mitigate office oversupply cycles. Methods combine qualitative research, econometric estimation, system dynamics simulation, and institutional economics. This research operationalises a problem solving research paradigm concept advocated by Ken Lusht. The research is also indebted to the late James Graaskamp, who was successful in linking industry and academic research through time and space specific feasibility studies to inform individual property development decisions. Qualitative research and literature provided a list of contributing causes of office oversupply including random shocks, faulty forecasting methods, fee driven deals, prisoners dilemma game, system dynamics (lags and adjustment times), land use regulation, and capital market issues. Rather than choosing among these, they are all considered to be causal to varying degrees. Moreover, there is synergy between combinations of these market imperfections. Office markets are complex evolving human designed systems (not time invariant) so each cycle has unique historical features. Data on Australian office markets were used to estimate office rent adjustment equations. Simulation models in spreadsheet and system dynamics software then integrate additional information with the statistical results to produce demand, supply, and rent forecasts. Results include models for rent forecasting and models for analysis related to policy and system redesign. The dissertation ends with two chapters on institutional reforms whereby better information might find application to improve market efficiency.Keywords. Office rents, rent adjustment, office market modelling, forecasting, system dynamics.
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Ji, Inyeob Economics Australian School of Business UNSW. "Essays on testing some predictions of RBC models and the stationarity of real interest rates." Publisher:University of New South Wales. Economics, 2008. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/41441.
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This dissertation contains a series of essays that provide empirical evidence for Australia on some fundamental predictions of real business cycle models and on the convergence and persistence of real interest rates. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to the issues examined in each chapter and provides an overview of the methodologies that are used. Tests of various basic predictions of standard real business cycle models for Australia are presented in Chapters 2, 3 and 4. Chapter 2 considers the question of great ratios for Australia. These are ratios of macroeconomic variables that are predicted by standard models to be stationary in the steady state. Using time series econometric techniques (unit root tests and cointegration tests) Australia great ratios are examined. In Chapter 3 a more restrictive implication of real business cycle models than the existence of great ratios is considered. Following the methodology proposed by Canova, Finn and Pagan (1994) the equilibrium decision rules for some standard real business cycle are tested on Australian data. The final essay on this topic is presented in Chapter 4. In this chapter a large-country, small-country is used to try and understand the reason for the sharp rise in Australia??s share of world output that began around 1990. Chapter 5 discusses real interest rate linkages in the Pacific Basin region. Vector autoregressive models and bootstrap methods are adopted to study financial linkages between East Asian markets, Japan and US. Given the apparent non-stationarity of real interest rates a related issue is examined in Chapter 6, viz. the persistence of international real interest rates and estimation of their half-life. Half-life is selected as a means of measuring persistence of real rates. Bootstrap methods are employed to overcome small sample issues in the estimation and a non-standard statistical inference methodology (Highest Density Regions) is adopted. Chapter 7 reapplies the High Density Regions methodology and bootstrap half-life estimation to the data used in Chapters 2 and 5. This provides a robustness check on the results of standard unit root tests that were applied to the data in those chapters. Main findings of the thesis are as follows. The long run implications of real business cycle models are largely rejected by the Australia data. This finding holds for both the existence of great ratios and when the explicit decision rules are employed. When the small open economy features of the Australian economy are incorporated in a two country RBC model, a country-specific productivity boom seems to provide a possible explanation for the rise in Australia??s share of world output. The essays that examine real interest rates suggest the following results. Following the East Asian financial crisis in 1997-98 there appears to have been a decline in the importance of Japan in influencing developments in the Pacific Basin region. In addition there is evidence that following the crisis Korea??s financial market became less insular and more integrated with the US. Finally results obtained from the half-life estimators suggest that despite the usual findings from unit root tests, real interest rates may in fact exhibit mean-reversion.
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Kummerow, Max F. "A paradigm of inquiry for applied real estate research : integrating econometric and simulation methods in time and space specific forecasting models : Australian office market case study." Curtin University of Technology, School of Economics and Finance, 1997. http://espace.library.curtin.edu.au:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=11274.
Full textAbstract:
Office space oversupply cost Australia billions of dollars during the 1990-92 recession. Australia, the United States, Japan, the U.K., South Africa, China, Thailand, and many other countries have suffered office oversupply cycles. Illiquid untenanted office buildings impair investors capital and cash flows, with adverse effects on macroeconomics, financial institutions, and individuals. This study aims to develop improved methods for medium term forecasting of office market adjustments to inform individual project development decisions and thereby to mitigate office oversupply cycles. Methods combine qualitative research, econometric estimation, system dynamics simulation, and institutional economics. This research operationalises a problem solving research paradigm concept advocated by Ken Lusht. The research is also indebted to the late James Graaskamp, who was successful in linking industry and academic research through time and space specific feasibility studies to inform individual property development decisions. Qualitative research and literature provided a list of contributing causes of office oversupply including random shocks, faulty forecasting methods, fee driven deals, prisoners dilemma game, system dynamics (lags and adjustment times), land use regulation, and capital market issues. Rather than choosing among these, they are all considered to be causal to varying degrees. Moreover, there is synergy between combinations of these market imperfections. Office markets are complex evolving human designed systems (not time invariant) so each cycle has unique historical features. Data on Australian office markets were used to estimate office rent adjustment equations. Simulation models in spreadsheet and system dynamics software then integrate additional information with the statistical results to produce demand, supply, and rent forecasts. Results include ++models for rent forecasting and models for analysis related to policy and system redesign. The dissertation ends with two chapters on institutional reforms whereby better information might find application to improve market efficiency.Keywords. Office rents, rent adjustment, office market modelling, forecasting, system dynamics.
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Yang, Wenling. "M-GARCH Hedge Ratios And Hedging Effectiveness In Australian Futures Markets." Thesis, Edith Cowan University, Research Online, Perth, Western Australia, 2000. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/1530.
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This study deals with the estimation of the optimal hedge ratios using various econometric models. Most of the recent papers have demonstrated that the conventional ordinary least squares (OLS) method of estimating constant hedge ratios is inappropriate, other more complicated models however seem to produce no more efficient hedge ratios. Using daily AOIs and SPI futures on the Australian market, optimal hedge ratios are calculated from four different models: the OLS regression model, the bivariate vector autoaggressive model (BVAR), the error-correction model (ECM) and the multivariate diagonal Vcc GARCH Model. The performance of each hedge ratio is then compared. The hedging effectiveness is measured in terms of ex-post and ex-ante risk-return traHe-off at various forcasting horizons. It is generally found that the GARCH time varying hedge ratios provide the greatest portfolio risk reduction, particularly for longer hedging horizons, but hey so not generate the highest portfolio return.
Books on the topic "Australia Manufactures Econometric models"
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Exchange rates and prices: The case of Australian manufactured imports. Berlin: Springer, 1996.
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Lindquist, Kjersti-Gro. Empirical modelling of exports of manufactures: Norway, 1962-1987. Oslo: Statistisk sentralbyrå, 1993.
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Campa, José. Investment in manufacturing, exchange-rates and external exposure. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1993.
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Lianos, Theodore. Cointegration tests of the profit-maximising equilibrium in Greek manufacturing, 1958-1991. Galway: Department of Economics, University College Galway, 1997.
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Marston, Richard C. Price behavior in Japanese and U.S. manufacturing. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1990.
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Lipsey, Robert E. Explaining product price differences across countries. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2007.
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McCarthy, Jonathan. Microeconomic inventory adjustment: Evidence from U.S. firm-level data. [New York, N.Y.]: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2000.
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Johnson, Lester W. Advertising expenditure and aggregate demand for cigarettes in Australia. [North Ryde, N.S.W.]: Macquarie University, School of Economic and Financial Studies, 1985.
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Bourassa, Steven C. A model of housing tenure choice in Australia. Canberra, ACT: Urban Research Program, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, 1993.
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Rodrik, Dani. From "Hindu growth" to productivity surge: The mystery of the Indian growth transition. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.
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