Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Australia Economic policy Econometric models'
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Enzinger, Sharn Emma 1973. "The economic impact of greenhouse policy upon the Australian electricity industry : an applied general equilibrium analysis." Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies, 2001. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/8383.
Full textMarshall, Peter John 1960. "Rational versus anchored traders : exchange rate behaviour in macro models." Monash University, Dept. of Economics, 2001. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/9048.
Full textAzam, Mohammad Nurul 1957. "Modelling and forecasting in the presence of structural change in the linear regression model." Monash University, Dept. of Econometrics and Business Statistics, 2001. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/9152.
Full textBoumediene, Farid Jimmy. "Determinacy and learning stability of economic policy in asymmetric monetary union models." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/972.
Full textBen-Belhassen, Boubaker. "Econometric models of the Argentine cereal economy : a focus on policy simulation analysis /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 1997. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9842508.
Full textAdam, Christopher S. "The demand for money, asset substitution and the inflation tax in a liberalizing economy : an econometric analysis for Kenya." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1992. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:037dcc1e-edff-4096-89cb-6d24a70742d8.
Full textWan, Lai Shan. "Macroeconomic modelling and policy simulation for the Chinese economy." HKBU Institutional Repository, 2002. http://repository.hkbu.edu.hk/etd_ra/335.
Full textAboagye, Anthony Q. Q. "Financial flows, macroeconomic policy and the agricultural sector in Sub-Saharan Africa." Thesis, McGill University, 1998. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=35672.
Full textThe production function is a Cobb-Douglas type. Static export and domestic share equations are derived from a specification of the agricultural gross domestic product function. Transformed auto-regressive distributed-lag versions of the static share models are used to investigate long-run dynamics, persistence and implementation lags in the share response model.
Agricultural output is affected as follows. ODA, PFX and SAV have small positive or negative impact depending on agricultural region or economic policy environment. The impact of openness of the economy is negative in all agricultural regions, however, there is evidence of positive effect of openness within improved policy environment. None of these effects are statistically significant.
Export share is affected as follows. ODA, PFX and SAV have small positive impact in some agricultural regions and policy environments, both in the short-run and in the long-run. PFX is not significant anywhere. ODA is significant only when countries are grouped by policy environment in the short-run. SAV is significant in the short-run only in some regions, and significant in the long-run only in others. Openness has positive impact in the short-run. This is significant in many regions. Its long-run impact is mostly positive but not significant anywhere. The impact of producer price is mostly positive but not significant.
Efforts to encourage economic activities in rural communities such as improvements in domestic terms of trade in favor of agriculture, together with the provision of infrastructure are likely to stimulate output. Strategies to diversify and process agricultural exports in the face of falling agricultural commodity prices should be pursued.
Wang, Yu Qing. "Quantitative analysis of the patterns and contributions of China's external trade." HKBU Institutional Repository, 1998. http://repository.hkbu.edu.hk/etd_ra/129.
Full textNayeyo, Anita Huba. "Economic welfare analysis of coarse grain trade under a trade liberalization policy within the Economic Community of West African States." Thesis, McGill University, 1995. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=23416.
Full textThe REACTT model results showed that removal of the tariffs would increase the crossborder trade flows between the four countries by about 12% for millet and 38% for sorghum. The welfare calculations showed that in the case of millet, all four countries would have net positive gains to the tune of $4.6 million in total. For sorghum, Burkina Faso, Ghana and Mali would have net positive gains, C ote d'Ivoire would have a net welfare loss, and the net impact on all four countries would be a positive gain of about $9.3 million. The results of the REACTT model and the welfare calculations suggest that intra-ECOWAS trade liberalization would increase total trade flows and total economic well being of the member countries.
Bauknecht, Klaus Dieter. "A macroeconometric policy model of the South African economy based on weak rational expectations with an application to monetary policy." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/51575.
Full textENGLISH ABSTRACT: The Lucas critique states that if expectations are not explicitly dealt with, conventional econometric models are inappropriate for policy analyses, as their coefficients are not policy invariant. The inclusion of rational expectations in ·conventional model building has been the most common response to this critique. The concept of rational expectations has received several interpretations. In numerous studies, these expectations are associated with model consistent expectations in the sense that expectations and model solutions are identical. To derive a solution, these models require unique algorithms and assumptions regarding their terminal state, in particular when forward-looking expectations are present. An alternative that avoids these issues is the concept of weak rational expectations, which emphasises that expectation errors should not be systematic. Expectations are therefore formed on the basis of an underlying structure, but full knowledge of the model is not essential. The accommodation of this type of rational expectations is accomplished by means of an explicit specification of an expectations equation consistent with the macro econometric model's broad structure. The estimation of coefficients relating to expectations is achieved through an Instrumental Variable approach. In South Africa, monetary policy has been consistent and transparent in line with the recommendations of the De Kock Commission. This allows the modelling of the policy instrument of the South African Reserve Bank, i.e. the Bank rate, by means of a policy reaction function. Given this transparency in monetary policy, the accommodation of expectations of the Bank rate is essential in modelling the full impact of monetary policy and in avoiding the Lucas critique. This is accomplished through weak rational expectations, based on the reaction function of the Reserve Bank. The accommodation of expectations of a policy instrument also allows the modelling of anticipated and unanticipated policies as alternative assumptions regarding the expectations process can be made during simulations. Conventional econometric models emphasise the demand side of the economy, with equations focusing on private consumption, investment, exports and imports and possibly changes in inventories. In this study, particular emphasis in the model specification is also placed on the impact of monetary policy on government debt and debt servicing costs. Other dimensions of the model include the modelling of the money supply and balance of payments, short- and long-term interest rates, domestic prices, the exchange rate, the wage rate and employment as well as weakly rational expectations of inflation and the Bank rate. The model has been specified and estimated by usmg concepts such as cointegration and Error Correction modelling. Numerous tests, including the assessment of the Root Mean Square Percentage Error, have been employed to test the adequacy of the model. Similarly, tests are carried out to ensure weak rational expectations. Numerous simulations are carried out with the model and the results are compared to relevant alternative studies. The simulation results show that the reduction of inflation by means of only monetary policy could impose severe costs on the economy in terms of real sector volatility.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Lucas-kritiek beweer dat konvensionele ekonometriese modelle nie gebruik kan word vir beleidsontleding nie, aangesien dit nie voorsiening maak vir die verandering in verwagtings wanneer beleidsaanpassings gemaak word nie. Die insluiting van rasionele verwagtinge in konvensionele ekonometriese modelle is die mees algemene reaksie op die Lukas-kritiek. Ten einde die praktiese insluiting van rasionele verwagtings III ekonometriese modelbou te vergemaklik, word in hierdie studie gebruik gemaak van sogenaamde "swak rasionele verwagtings", wat slegs vereis dat verwagtingsfoute me sistematies moet wees nie. Die beraming van die koëffisiënte van die verwagtingsveranderlikes word gedoen met behulp van die Instrumentele Veranderlikes-benadering. Monetêre beleid in Suid-Afrika was histories konsekwent en deursigtig in ooreenstemming met die aanbevelings van die De Kock Kommissie. Die beleidsinstrument van die Suid-Afrikaanse Reserwebank, naamlik die Bankkoers, kan gevolglik gemodelleer word met behulp van 'n beleidsreaksie-funksie. Ten einde die Lukas-kritiek te akkommodeer, moet verwagtings oor die Bankkoers egter ingesluit word wanneer die volle impak van monetêre beleid gemodelleer word. Dit word vermag met die insluiting van swak rasionele verwagtings, gebaseer op die reaksie-funksie van die Reserwebank. Sodoende kan die impak van verwagte en onverwagte beleidsaanpassings gesimuleer word. Konvensionele ekonometriese modelle beklemtoon die vraagkant van die ekonomie, met vergelykings vir verbruik, investering, invoere, uitvoere en moontlik die verandering in voorrade. In hierdie studie word daar ook klem geplaas op die impak van monetêre beleid op staatskuld en die koste van staatsskuld. Ander aspekte wat gemodelleer word, is die geldvoorraad en betalingsbalans, korttermyn- en langtermynrentekoerse, binnelandse pryse, die wisselkoers, loonkoerse en indiensneming, asook swak rasionele verwagtings van inflasie en die Bankkkoers. Die model is gespesifiseer en beraam met behulp van ko-integrasie en die gebruik van lang-en korttermynvergelykings. Die gebruiklike toetse is uitgevoer om die toereikendheid van die model te toets. Verskeie simulasies is uitgevoer met die model en die resultate is vergelyk met ander relevante studies. Die gevolgtrekking word gemaak dat die verlaging van inflasie deur alleenlik gebruik te maak van monetêre beleid 'n swaar las op die ekonomie kan lê in terme van volatiliteit in die reële sektor.
Devaraj, Srikant. "Specification and estimation of the price responsiveness of alcohol demand| A policy analytic perspective." Thesis, Indiana University - Purdue University Indianapolis, 2016. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10032406.
Full textAccurate estimation of alcohol price elasticity is important for policy analysis – e.g.., determining optimal taxes and projecting revenues generated from proposed tax changes. Several approaches to specifying and estimating the price elasticity of demand for alcohol can be found in the literature. There are two keys to policy-relevant specification and estimation of alcohol price elasticity. First, the underlying demand model should take account of alcohol consumption decisions at the extensive margin – i.e., individuals’ decisions to drink or not – because the price of alcohol may impact the drinking initiation decision and one’s decision to drink is likely to be structurally different from how much they drink if they decide to do so (the intensive margin). Secondly, the modeling of alcohol demand elasticity should yield both theoretical and empirical results that are causally interpretable. The elasticity estimates obtained from the existing two-part model takes into account the extensive margin, but are not causally interpretable.
The elasticity estimates obtained using aggregate-level models, however, are causally interpretable, but do not explicitly take into account the extensive margin. There currently exists no specification and estimation method for alcohol price elasticity that both accommodates the extensive margin and is causally interpretable. I explore additional sources of bias in the extant approaches to elasticity specification and estimation: 1) the use of logged (vs. nominal) alcohol prices; and 2) implementation of unnecessarily restrictive assumptions underlying the conventional two-part model. I propose a new approach to elasticity specification and estimation that covers the two key requirements for policy relevance and remedies all such biases. I find evidence of substantial divergence between the new and extant methods using both simulated and the real data. Such differences are profound when placed in the context of alcohol tax revenue generation.
Barkley, David L., and Peter E. Helander. "The Role of Commercial Bank Loans in Nonmetropolitan Economic Development." College of Agriculture, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/602137.
Full textLenza, Michèle. "Essays on monetary policy, saving and investment." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/210659.
Full textCentral Banks behave so cautiously compared to optimal theoretical
benchmarks, (ii) do monetary variables add information about
future Euro Area inflation to a large amount of non monetary
variables and (iii) why national saving and investment are so
correlated in OECD countries in spite of the high degree of
integration of international financial markets.
The process of innovation in the elaboration of economic theory
and statistical analysis of the data witnessed in the last thirty
years has greatly enriched the toolbox available to
macroeconomists. Two aspects of such a process are particularly
noteworthy for addressing the issues in this thesis: the
development of macroeconomic dynamic stochastic general
equilibrium models (see Woodford, 1999b for an historical
perspective) and of techniques that enable to handle large data
sets in a parsimonious and flexible manner (see Reichlin, 2002 for
an historical perspective).
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE) provide the
appropriate tools to evaluate the macroeconomic consequences of
policy changes. These models, by exploiting modern intertemporal
general equilibrium theory, aggregate the optimal responses of
individual as consumers and firms in order to identify the
aggregate shocks and their propagation mechanisms by the
restrictions imposed by optimizing individual behavior. Such a
modelling strategy, uncovering economic relationships invariant to
a change in policy regimes, provides a framework to analyze the
effects of economic policy that is robust to the Lucas'critique
(see Lucas, 1976). The early attempts of explaining business
cycles by starting from microeconomic behavior suggested that
economic policy should play no role since business cycles
reflected the efficient response of economic agents to exogenous
sources of fluctuations (see the seminal paper by Kydland and Prescott, 1982}
and, more recently, King and Rebelo, 1999). This view was challenged by
several empirical studies showing that the adjustment mechanisms
of variables at the heart of macroeconomic propagation mechanisms
like prices and wages are not well represented by efficient
responses of individual agents in frictionless economies (see, for
example, Kashyap, 1999; Cecchetti, 1986; Bils and Klenow, 2004 and Dhyne et al. 2004). Hence, macroeconomic models currently incorporate
some sources of nominal and real rigidities in the DSGE framework
and allow the study of the optimal policy reactions to inefficient
fluctuations stemming from frictions in macroeconomic propagation
mechanisms.
Against this background, the first chapter of this thesis sets up
a DSGE model in order to analyze optimal monetary policy in an
economy with sectorial heterogeneity in the frequency of price
adjustments. Price setters are divided in two groups: those
subject to Calvo type nominal rigidities and those able to change
their prices at each period. Sectorial heterogeneity in price
setting behavior is a relevant feature in real economies (see, for
example, Bils and Klenow, 2004 for the US and Dhyne, 2004 for the Euro
Area). Hence, neglecting it would lead to an understatement of the
heterogeneity in the transmission mechanisms of economy wide
shocks. In this framework, Aoki (2001) shows that a Central
Bank maximizing social welfare should stabilize only inflation in
the sector where prices are sticky (hereafter, core inflation).
Since complete stabilization is the only true objective of the
policymaker in Aoki (2001) and, hence, is not only desirable
but also implementable, the equilibrium real interest rate in the
economy is equal to the natural interest rate irrespective of the
degree of heterogeneity that is assumed. This would lead to
conclude that stabilizing core inflation rather than overall
inflation does not imply any observable difference in the
aggressiveness of the policy behavior. While maintaining the
assumption of sectorial heterogeneity in the frequency of price
adjustments, this chapter adds non negligible transaction
frictions to the model economy in Aoki (2001). As a
consequence, the social welfare maximizing monetary policymaker
faces a trade-off among the stabilization of core inflation,
economy wide output gap and the nominal interest rate. This
feature reflects the trade-offs between conflicting objectives
faced by actual policymakers. The chapter shows that the existence
of this trade-off makes the aggressiveness of the monetary policy
reaction dependent on the degree of sectorial heterogeneity in the
economy. In particular, in presence of sectorial heterogeneity in
price adjustments, Central Banks are much more likely to behave
less aggressively than in an economy where all firms face nominal
rigidities. Hence, the chapter concludes that the excessive
caution in the conduct of monetary policy shown by actual Central
Banks (see, for example, Rudebusch and Svennsson, 1999 and Sack, 2000) might not
represent a sub-optimal behavior but, on the contrary, might be
the optimal monetary policy response in presence of a relevant
sectorial dispersion in the frequency of price adjustments.
DSGE models are proving useful also in empirical applications and
recently efforts have been made to incorporate large amounts of
information in their framework (see Boivin and Giannoni, 2006). However, the
typical DSGE model still relies on a handful of variables. Partly,
this reflects the fact that, increasing the number of variables,
the specification of a plausible set of theoretical restrictions
identifying aggregate shocks and their propagation mechanisms
becomes cumbersome. On the other hand, several questions in
macroeconomics require the study of a large amount of variables.
Among others, two examples related to the second and third chapter
of this thesis can help to understand why. First, policymakers
analyze a large quantity of information to assess the current and
future stance of their economies and, because of model
uncertainty, do not rely on a single modelling framework.
Consequently, macroeconomic policy can be better understood if the
econometrician relies on large set of variables without imposing
too much a priori structure on the relationships governing their
evolution (see, for example, Giannone et al. 2004 and Bernanke et al. 2005).
Moreover, the process of integration of good and financial markets
implies that the source of aggregate shocks is increasingly global
requiring, in turn, the study of their propagation through cross
country links (see, among others, Forni and Reichlin, 2001 and Kose et al. 2003). A
priori, country specific behavior cannot be ruled out and many of
the homogeneity assumptions that are typically embodied in open
macroeconomic models for keeping them tractable are rejected by
the data. Summing up, in order to deal with such issues, we need
modelling frameworks able to treat a large amount of variables in
a flexible manner, i.e. without pre-committing on too many
a-priori restrictions more likely to be rejected by the data. The
large extent of comovement among wide cross sections of economic
variables suggests the existence of few common sources of
fluctuations (Forni et al. 2000 and Stock and Watson, 2002) around which
individual variables may display specific features: a shock to the
world price of oil, for example, hits oil exporters and importers
with different sign and intensity or global technological advances
can affect some countries before others (Giannone and Reichlin, 2004). Factor
models mainly rely on the identification assumption that the
dynamics of each variable can be decomposed into two orthogonal
components - common and idiosyncratic - and provide a parsimonious
tool allowing the analysis of the aggregate shocks and their
propagation mechanisms in a large cross section of variables. In
fact, while the idiosyncratic components are poorly
cross-sectionally correlated, driven by shocks specific of a
variable or a group of variables or measurement error, the common
components capture the bulk of cross-sectional correlation, and
are driven by few shocks that affect, through variable specific
factor loadings, all items in a panel of economic time series.
Focusing on the latter components allows useful insights on the
identity and propagation mechanisms of aggregate shocks underlying
a large amount of variables. The second and third chapter of this
thesis exploit this idea.
The second chapter deals with the issue whether monetary variables
help to forecast inflation in the Euro Area harmonized index of
consumer prices (HICP). Policymakers form their views on the
economic outlook by drawing on large amounts of potentially
relevant information. Indeed, the monetary policy strategy of the
European Central Bank acknowledges that many variables and models
can be informative about future Euro Area inflation. A peculiarity
of such strategy is that it assigns to monetary information the
role of providing insights for the medium - long term evolution of
prices while a wide range of alternative non monetary variables
and models are employed in order to form a view on the short term
and to cross-check the inference based on monetary information.
However, both the academic literature and the practice of the
leading Central Banks other than the ECB do not assign such a
special role to monetary variables (see Gali et al. 2004 and
references therein). Hence, the debate whether money really
provides relevant information for the inflation outlook in the
Euro Area is still open. Specifically, this chapter addresses the
issue whether money provides useful information about future
inflation beyond what contained in a large amount of non monetary
variables. It shows that a few aggregates of the data explain a
large amount of the fluctuations in a large cross section of Euro
Area variables. This allows to postulate a factor structure for
the large panel of variables at hand and to aggregate it in few
synthetic indexes that still retain the salient features of the
large cross section. The database is split in two big blocks of
variables: non monetary (baseline) and monetary variables. Results
show that baseline variables provide a satisfactory predictive
performance improving on the best univariate benchmarks in the
period 1997 - 2005 at all horizons between 6 and 36 months.
Remarkably, monetary variables provide a sensible improvement on
the performance of baseline variables at horizons above two years.
However, the analysis of the evolution of the forecast errors
reveals that most of the gains obtained relative to univariate
benchmarks of non forecastability with baseline and monetary
variables are realized in the first part of the prediction sample
up to the end of 2002, which casts doubts on the current
forecastability of inflation in the Euro Area.
The third chapter is based on a joint work with Domenico Giannone
and gives empirical foundation to the general equilibrium
explanation of the Feldstein - Horioka puzzle. Feldstein and Horioka (1980) found
that domestic saving and investment in OECD countries strongly
comove, contrary to the idea that high capital mobility should
allow countries to seek the highest returns in global financial
markets and, hence, imply a correlation among national saving and
investment closer to zero than one. Moreover, capital mobility has
strongly increased since the publication of Feldstein - Horioka's
seminal paper while the association between saving and investment
does not seem to comparably decrease. Through general equilibrium
mechanisms, the presence of global shocks might rationalize the
correlation between saving and investment. In fact, global shocks,
affecting all countries, tend to create imbalance on global
capital markets causing offsetting movements in the global
interest rate and can generate the observed correlation across
national saving and investment rates. However, previous empirical
studies (see Ventura, 2003) that have controlled for the effects
of global shocks in the context of saving-investment regressions
failed to give empirical foundation to this explanation. We show
that previous studies have neglected the fact that global shocks
may propagate heterogeneously across countries, failing to
properly isolate components of saving and investment that are
affected by non pervasive shocks. We propose a novel factor
augmented panel regression methodology that allows to isolate
idiosyncratic sources of fluctuations under the assumption of
heterogenous transmission mechanisms of global shocks. Remarkably,
by applying our methodology, the association between domestic
saving and investment decreases considerably over time,
consistently with the observed increase in international capital
mobility. In particular, in the last 25 years the correlation
between saving and investment disappears.
Doctorat en sciences économiques, Orientation économie
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
Eklöf, Jan A. "Varying data quality and effects in economic analysis and planning." Doctoral thesis, Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, Ekonomisk Statistik (ES), 1992. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hhs:diva-903.
Full textDiss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.
Berger, Nicholas. "Modelling structural and policy changes in the world wine market into the 21st century." Title page, contents and abstract only, 2000. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09ECM/09ecmb496.pdf.
Full textKomicha, Hussien Hamda. "Farm household economic behaviour in imperfect financial markets : empirical evidence and policy implications on saving, credit and production efficiency in Southeastern Ethiopia /." Uppsala : Dept. of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 2007. http://epsilon.slu.se/200778.pdf.
Full textOkumu, Ibrahim Mike. "Essays on governance, public finance, and economic development." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5282.
Full textStarkey, Randall Ashley. "Financial system development and economic growth in selected African countries: evidence from a panel cointegration analysis." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002713.
Full textSavanhu, Tatenda. "Financial liberalization, financial development and economic growth: the case for South Africa." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006197.
Full textMadani, Hamed. "Socioeconomic Development and Military Policy Consequences of Third World Military and Civilian Regimes, 1965-1985." Thesis, University of North Texas, 1992. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc277872/.
Full textAjagbe, Stephen Mayowa. "An analysis of the long run comovements between financial system development and mining production in South Africa." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002689.
Full textDuong, Lien Thi Hong. "Australian takeover waves : a re-examination of patterns, causes and consequences." UWA Business School, 2009. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2009.0201.
Full textde, Rassenfosse Gaétan. "Essays on the propensity to patent: measurement and determinants." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/210130.
Full textChapter 2 proposes a methodology to filter out the noise induced by varying patent practices in the R&D-patent relationship. The methodology explicitly decomposes the patent-to-R&D ratio into its components of productivity and propensity. It is then applied to a novel data set of priority patent applications in four countries and six industries.
Chapter 3 takes stock of the literature on the role of fees in patent systems while Chapter 4 presents estimates of the price elasticity of demand for patents at the trilateral offices (that is, in the U.S. Japan and Europe). The estimation of dynamic panel data models of patent applications suggests that the long-term price elasticity is about -0.30.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
Curto, Millet Fabien. "Inflation expectations, labour markets and EMU." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2007. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:9187d2eb-2f93-4a5a-a7d6-0fb6556079bb.
Full text"An econometric analysis of the Hong Kong and China connection." 1999. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5889891.
Full textThesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1999.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 106-108).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT --- p.iii
LIST OF TABLES --- p.iv
LIST OF ILLUSTRATION --- p.v
CHAPTER
Chapter ONE --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1
Chapter TWO --- THE LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.2
Chapter THREE --- METHODOLOGY --- p.8
Error Correction Model
Unit-Root Tests
Cointegration Tests
Structural Break Test
Chapter FOUR --- MODEL SPECIFICATION AND SIMULATION --- p.19
Chapter FIVE --- SIMULATION ANALYSIS --- p.45
Chapter SIX --- CONCLUSION --- p.51
TABLES --- p.53
ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.67
APPENDIX --- p.81
Chapter A --- THE ESTIMATED MODEL
Chapter B --- DATA DESCRIPTION
BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.109
"A quantitative study of Hong Kong's fiscal policy." 2012. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5549035.
Full textGiven the adoption of the linked exchange rate since October 1983, fiscal policy becomes the only measurement for stabilizing the Hong Kong economy. This paper attempts to establish a framework for evaluating the fiscal effect to prevent the abuse of fiscal measures. The empirical study of Jha et al. (2010) revealed the significant negative impact of fiscal effect in Hong Kong, which violates the classical view of fiscal policy. A similar result has been found by adopting another structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model proposed by Ravn et al. (2007). An omission of control variables in the quantitative model is possible. The MSCI AC (All countries) Pacific Index has been introduced as an international block in the SVAR model proposed by Ravn et al. (2007). The fiscal effect becomes positive and standardizes with the previous fiscal studies. The replacement of investment variable in the modified model suggests that positive fiscal innovation does not encounter with the crowding out effect on investment. The estimations for the decomposition policy expenditures indicate that compositional effect exists, and it undermines the fiscal multiplier. The estimations also reveal that the innovation in recurrent expenditure contributes mainly to the fiscal effect. With the persistence and significant impact on output, concentrating on infrastructure expenditure is the recommendation on Hong Kong fiscal policy to maximize the expansionary effect in the short run.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Wong, Chi Shing.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 32-33).
Abstracts also in Chinese.
Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1
Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.4
Chapter 2.1 --- Literature Review on Hong Kong Fiscal Policy --- p.5
Chapter 2.2 --- Literature Review on the SVAR Model of Fiscal Policy --- p.5
Chapter 3 --- Identification of the Structural VAR Model
Chapter 3.1 --- Original Model
Chapter 3.1.1 --- Identification --- p.8
Chapter 3.1.2 --- Data --- p.10
Chapter 3.1.3 --- Estimation --- p.10
Chapter 3.2 --- Modified Model
Chapter 3.2.1 --- Introduction of International Block --- p.11
Chapter 3.2.2 --- Estimation --- p.13
Chapter 3.2.3 --- Robustness Testing --- p.16
Chapter 3.2.4 --- Crowding Out Effect --- p.17
Chapter 4 --- Fiscal Effects by Policy Category
Chapter 4.1 --- Decomposition of Government Expenditure --- p.19
Chapter 4.2 --- Estimation of Fiscal Impulse by Policy Category
Chapter 4.2.1 --- Total Expenditure by Policy --- p.21
Chapter 4.2.2 --- Recurrent Expenditure by Policy --- p.22
Chapter 4.2.3 --- Non-Recurrent Expenditure by Policy --- p.25
Chapter 5 --- Comparison of the Fiscal Effects between “Asian Dragons“ --- p.26
Chapter 6 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.29
References --- p.32
Appendixes
Chapter Appendix A: --- Classification of Expenditure by Policy Area Group --- p.34
Chapter Appendix B: --- Estimations and Figures --- p.35
"The decline of output volatility in China: from central planning to economic transition." 2010. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5894381.
Full textThesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2010.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 35-37).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
Abstract --- p.i
Acknowledgment --- p.ii
Contents --- p.iii
List of Tables and Figures --- p.iv
Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.v
Chapter 2. --- Literature Review --- p.1
Chapter 2.1. --- Interpretation of the Output Moderation --- p.3
Chapter 3 . --- Reduction of Output Volatility in China --- p.6
Chapter 3.1. --- Data Description --- p.8
Chapter 3.2. --- Basic Statistical Analysis --- p.8
Chapter 3.3 --- Decomposition of the Reduction in Volatility --- p.13
Chapter 3.4. --- Compositional Change --- p.13
Chapter 4. --- Output Volatility Drop from Central-planning to Economic transition…… --- p.15
Chapter 5. --- Output Moderation during the Reform Period --- p.19
Chapter 5.1. --- Conceptual Framework --- p.19
Chapter 5.2. --- General Determinants --- p.19
Chapter 5.2.1. --- China-specific Determinants --- p.22
Chapter 5.3. --- Panel Regression --- p.23
Chapter 5.3.1. --- Without Share --- p.25
Chapter 5.3.2. --- With Share --- p.29
Chapter 5.3.3. --- Interpretation of the Regression Result --- p.33
Chapter 6. --- Conclusion --- p.33
References --- p.35
Figures and Tables --- p.38
Evans, Richard William 1975. "Three essays on openness, international pricing, and optimal monetary policy." Thesis, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/3962.
Full textDavis, Robert Brent. ""Economics, politics and the uncommitted voter : econometric analyses for Australia"." Phd thesis, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/148791.
Full textMorris, Alan Geoffrey. "An economic analysis of industrial disputation in Australia." Thesis, 1996. https://vuir.vu.edu.au/15259/.
Full textAkmal, Muhammad. "The structure of energy demand in Australia : an econometric investigation with some economic applications." Phd thesis, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/144955.
Full textCho, Bong-Jae. "The Economic effects of trade liberalization under oligopoly." Thesis, 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/1957/36456.
Full textGraduation date: 1993
"Welfare effects of trade and environmental policy for a small-polluted economy." 2004. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5892257.
Full textThesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2004.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 72-80).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
Chapter Chapter 1 --- Overview --- p.1
Chapter Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.5
Chapter 2.1 --- Income growth and pollution --- p.5
Chapter 2.2 --- Environmental regulations and comparative advantage --- p.6
Chapter 2.3 --- Welfare implications : Optimal policy in a second-best world --- p.9
Chapter 2.4 --- Unemployment and the Environment --- p.11
Chapter 2.5 --- Labor Union and International Trade --- p.12
Chapter Chapter 3 --- Tariffs and the Environment --- p.14
Chapter 3.1 --- The model --- p.14
Chapter 3.2 --- Resource Allocation -The effects of import tariffs --- p.19
Chapter 3.3 --- National welfare --- p.23
Chapter 3.4 --- Trade Liberalization --- p.26
Chapter Chapter 4 --- Tariffs,Unemployment and the Environment --- p.28
Chapter 4.1 --- The model --- p.30
Chapter 4.2 --- Resource Allocation - The effects of import tariffs --- p.33
Chapter 4.3 --- National Welfare --- p.37
Chapter 4.4 --- Trade Liberalization --- p.40
Chapter Chapter 5 --- "Tariffs, Labor Unions and the Environment" --- p.42
Chapter 5.1 --- The model --- p.43
Chapter 5.2 --- Resource Allocation - The effects of import tariffs --- p.48
Chapter 5.3 --- National Welfare --- p.52
Chapter 5.4 --- Trade Liberalization --- p.54
Chapter Chapter 6 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.57
Appendix I --- p.60
Appendix II --- p.64
Appendix III --- p.67
References --- p.72
Kim, Seung-Rae. "Essays on interactions between environmental and fiscal policies: analytical and numerical general equilibrium analyses." Thesis, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/702.
Full textWattanakul, Thanet. "Thailand's openness and implications for economic and trade policy: an econometric study." Thesis, 2010. https://vuir.vu.edu.au/16004/.
Full textSmith, Jeremy Paul Duncan. "Aspects of macroeconometric time series modelling." Phd thesis, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/121824.
Full textQuang, Doan Hong. "Essays on factor-market distortions and economic growth." Phd thesis, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/147706.
Full textWiriyawit, Varang. "Essays on implications of structural parameter identification and trend misspecification in DSGE and SVAR frameworks." Phd thesis, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/156337.
Full textNyasha, Sheilla. "Financial development and economic growth : new evidence from six countries." Thesis, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/18576.
Full textEconomics
DCOM (Economics)
Arora, Vipin. "Macroeconomic policy and oil price dynamics." Phd thesis, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/151203.
Full textAltmann, David. "Marginal cost water pricing welfare effects and policy implications using minimum cost and benchmarking models, with case studies from Australia and Asia /." 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/2440/39464.
Full texthttp://proxy.library.adelaide.edu.au/login?url= http://library.adelaide.edu.au/cgi-bin/Pwebrecon.cgi?BBID=1289196
Thesis (PhD) -- School of Economics, 2007
Omolo, Miriam. "The impact of trade policy reforms on households : a welfare analysis for Kenya." Thesis, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/8769.
Full textEconomics
D. Litt. et Phil. (Economics)
Jiang, Qiang. "Three essays on water modelling and management in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia." Phd thesis, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/151262.
Full textKing, Christopher. "Exploring the intensive and extensive margin of employment in a CGE framework." Thesis, 2020. https://vuir.vu.edu.au/41797/.
Full textConstantino, Rui António Lopes. "Fundos comunitários e competitividade externa . O caso português." Master's thesis, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/18534.
Full textPortugal, em 1999, participou no grupo fundador da União Económica e Monetária Europeia (zona euro), perdendo o instrumento taxa de câmbio. Ao longo de todo o processo de convergência foi visível uma clara tendência de apreciação da taxa de câmbio real. Esta é definida como o preço relativo dos bens transaccionáveis face aos não-transaccionáveis. Procurou-se analisar em que medida essa tendência foi um fenómeno de equilíbrio, ou se, pelo contrário, reflectiu uma situação de perda de competitividade externa. Por outro lado, pretendeu-se identificar quais os principais factores a explicarem essa tendência de apreciação. Os resultados empíricos permitiram concluir que; i) a apreciação foi um fenómeno de equilíbrio, desta forma não gerando uma perda excessiva de competitividade, mas antes reflectindo o processo de convergência real da economia portuguesa. Em 1999, quando da adopção do euro, a taxa de câmbio real do escudo não se encontrava muito afastada do seu nível de equilíbrio; ii) as principais determinantes desta tendência de longo prazo foram os fundos comunitários e a despesa pública, além dos termos de troca, do progresso técnico e das remessas de emigrantes. A análise permitiu ainda identificar factores de risco para o futuro. Por um lado, a esperada redução dos fundos comunitários implicará um abrandamento do processo de apreciação da taxa de câmbio real de equilíbrio, o que coloca pressões ao nível da apreciação da taxa de câmbio real, que terá de ser igualmente mais limitada. Por outro lado, a despesa pública, na análise da dinâmica de curto prazo, contribui para a apreciação da taxa de câmbio real, por via do mercado de não transaccionáveis, e a recente aceleração da despesa pública, apesar da redução do défice público aumenta os factores de desestabilização macroeconómica. Sai, assim, reforçada a necessidade de aprofundar as reformas estruturais da economia portuguesa, flexibilizando os mercados de bens e de trabalho, além da consolidação das contas públicas, sobretudo através do controlo da despesa pública, visando o rápido cumprimento do Pacto de Estabilidade e Crescimento.
Portugal, in January 1999, was one of the founding members of the Europcan Economic and Monetary Union (the euro area), loosing the exchange rate as an economic policy instrument. During the whole convergence process, the escudo revealed a clear appreciation trend of the exchange rate in real terms. We have defined the real exchange rate as the relative price of tradables relative to non-tradables. Our aim was to evaluate in what extent was such appreciation an equilibrium movement or, on the contrary, was it a situation of loss of externai competitiveness. On the other hand, we also wanted to identify which factors contributed to such appreciation movement. The empirical result we found led to the following conclusions: i) the real appreciation was an equilibrium movement, not reflecting losses in competitiveness, but rather the real convergence of the Portuguese economy. In 1999, when the euro was finally launched, the real exchange rate of the escudo was not too deviated from its equilibrium levei; ii) behind this appreciation trend were public transfers from the European Union and public expenditure, as well as terms of trade, technical progress and emigranfs remittances. The analysis also pointed to some potential risks. On the one hand, the expected reduction in transfers from the European Union will be reflected into slower appreciation of the real equilibrium exchange rate, calling therefore for a more limited real appreciation. On the other hand, public expenditure has an important role in the short-term dynamics of the real exchange rate, leading to an appreciation through the market of non-tradable goods, and the recent increase in public expenditure, despite a smaller public deficit, increases the factors of macroeconomic destabilization. Therefore, there is an increased need to implement the required structural reforms of the Portuguese economy, making goods and labour markets more flexible, in line with the consolidation of the fiscal accounts, in particular in terms of more controlled public expenditure, aiming at the compliance with the targets set in the Growth and Stability Pact.
N/A
Kim, Sung-Ju. "The impact of federal government welfare expenditures on state government expenditures and philanthropic giving to human service organizations (HSOs) : 2005-2006." Thesis, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1805/4523.
Full textA sizeable body of research has attempted to examine the interaction between government spending and private giving known as the crowd-out effect. Most researchers reported that increases of government spending cause decreases of philanthropic giving to different types of nonprofits. However, few studies have attempted to indicate the interaction between government welfare expenditures and private giving to human service organizations even though human service organizations are the most sensitive to the changes of government spending. Additionally, the estimated crowd-out effects with a simple crowd-out model have been criticized for potential endogeneity bias. This paper investigates the total effect of federal government welfare spending on state government expenditures and philanthropic giving to human service organizations (known as joint crowd-out). I used the 2005 wave of the Center on Philanthropy Panel Study (COPPS) to estimate the effect of federal human service grants on state government spending on, and donations to human services. From these reduced-form estimates I infer the levels of simple and joint crowd-out. I found that indicate federal spending on public welfare crowds out private giving to human service organizations while holding control variables constant in the donations equation. However, federal government spending on public welfare crowds in state government spending on public welfare.