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1
Cook, Garry D., and Michael J. Nicholls. "Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Wind Hazard for Darwin: Comparison with Two Other Locations and the Australian Wind-Loading Code." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 48, no. 11 (November 1, 2009): 2331–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jamc2013.1.
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Abstract The passage of three Australian Category 5 cyclones within 350 km of Darwin (Northern Territory), Australia, during the last decade indicates that that city should have a high wind hazard. In this paper, the wind hazard for Darwin was compared with that for Port Hedland (Western Australia) and Townsville (Queensland) using data from a coupled ocean–atmosphere simulation model and from historical and satellite-era records of tropical cyclones. According to the authoritative statement on wind hazard in Australia, Darwin’s wind hazard is the same as Townsville’s but both locations’ hazards are much less than that of Port Hedland. However, three different estimates in this study indicate that Darwin’s wind hazard at the long return periods relevant to engineering requirements is higher than for both Port Hedland and Townsville. The discrepancy with previous studies may result from the inadequate cyclone records in the low-latitude north of Australia, from accumulated errors from estimates of wind speeds from wind fields and wind–pressure relationships, and from inappropriate extrapolations of short-period records based on assumed probability distributions. It is concluded that the current wind-hazard zoning of northern Australia seriously underestimates the hazard near Darwin and that coupled ocean–atmosphere simulation models could contribute to its revision.
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Cook, Garry D., and Michael J. Nicholls. "Reply." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 51, no. 1 (January 2012): 172–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-11-059.1.
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AbstractA reexamination of the wind hazard from tropical cyclones for the city of Darwin (Northern Territory), Australia, by Cook and Nicholls concluded that its wind hazard is substantially underestimated by its allocation to region C in the Australian wind code. This conclusion was dismissed by Harper et al. on the basis of interpretation of anemometer records and Dvorak central pressure estimates as well as criticism of the simple technique and data used to interpret historic records. Of the 44 years of historical anemometer records presented by Harper et al. for Darwin, however, only one record was for a direct hit by an intense tropical cyclone. The other records derive from distant and/or weak tropical cyclones, which are not applicable to understanding the wind hazard at long return periods. The Dvorak central pressure estimates from which Harper et al. conclude that Port Hedland (Western Australia), Australia, has a greater wind hazard than Darwin does, when back transformed to Dvorak current-intensity values and gust speeds, indicate the converse. The simple technique used to derive wind hazard from historical cyclone occurrence is defended in detail and shown to produce estimates of wind hazard that are close to those accepted for five locations on the hurricane-affected coastline of the U.S. mainland. Thus the criticisms by Harper et al. of Cook and Nicholl’s work are shown to be invalid and the original conclusion that Darwin’s wind hazard is substantially underestimated in the current Australian wind code is supported.
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Duff, G. A., B. A. Myers, R. J. Williams, D. Eamus, A. O'Grady, and I. R. Fordyce. "Seasonal Patterns in Soil Moisture, Vapour Pressure Deficit, Tree Canopy Cover and Pre-dawn Water Potential in a Northern Australian Savanna." Australian Journal of Botany 45, no. 2 (1997): 211. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/bt96018.
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The wet–dry tropics of northern Australia are characterised by extreme seasonal variation in rainfall and atmospheric vapour pressure deficit, although temperatures are relatively constant throughout the year.This seasonal variation is associated with marked changes in tree canopy cover, although the exact determinants of these changes are complex. This paper reports variation in microclimate (temperature, vapour pressure deficit (VPD)), rainfall, soil moisture, understorey light environment (total daily irradiance), and pre-dawn leaf water potential of eight dominant tree species in an area of savanna near Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia. Patterns of canopy cover are strongly influenced by both soil moisture and VPD. Increases in canopy cover coincide with decreases in VPD, and occur prior to increases in soil moisture that occur with the onset of wet season rains. Decreases in canopy cover coincide with decreases in soil moisture following the cessation of wet season rains and associated increases in VPD. Patterns of pre-dawn water potential vary significantly between species and between leaf phenological guilds. Pre-dawn water potential increases with decreasing VPD towards the end of the dry season prior to any increases in soil moisture. Decline in pre-dawn water potential coincides with both decreasing soil moisture and increasing VPD at the end of the dry season. This study emphasises the importance of the annual transition between the dry season and the wet season, a period of 1–2 months of relatively low VPD but little or no effective rainfall, preceded by a 4–6 month dry season of no rainfall and high VPD. This period is accompanied by markedly increased canopy cover, and significant increases in pre-dawn water potential, which are demonstrably independent of rainfall. This finding emphasises the importance of VPD as a determinant of physiological and phenological processes in Australian savannas.
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SRIVASTAVA, H. N., and S. S. SINGH. "EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL FUNCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PARAMETERS USED IN LONG RANGE FORECASTING OF INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON." MAUSAM 44, no. 1 (December 31, 2021): 29–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v44i1.3743.
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EEmpirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF),. associated with the; parameters for long range forecasting of Indian summer monsoon onset and seasonal. rainfall have been discussed. It was found that the percentage of variance explained was 77 and 67 respectively through the first four EOF. The highest correlation coefficient with the onset date was found for the first function which showed the maximum influence of Cobar (Australia) and Darwin (Australia) zonal winds on the onset date. It was interesting to note that for rainfall prediction predominant effect on the first EOF was noticed of 50 hPa ridge over northern hemisphere, Eurasian snow cover, Argentina pressure (negatively correlated) and 500 hpa ridge, 10 hPa Balboa wind, north, central India and east coast minimum temperatures, and northern hemisphere temperature. However, the Influence of EI-Nino, equatorial pressure and Darwin pressure (Including Tahiti minus Darwin) and Himalayan snow cover was almost negligible. The eigen index for the onset date suggests a complementary method for its application In long range prediction of summer monsoon onset date.
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Harper, Bruce A., John D. Holmes, Jeffrey D. Kepert, Luciano B. Mason, and Peter J. Vickery. "Comments on “Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Wind Hazard for Darwin: Comparison with Two Other Locations and the Australian Wind-Loading Code”." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 51, no. 1 (January 2012): 161–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-10-05011.1.
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AbstractCook and Nicholls recently argued in this journal that the city of Darwin (Northern Territory), Australia, should be located in wind region D rather than in the current region C in the Australian/New Zealand Standard AS/NZS 1170.2 wind actions standard, in which region D has significantly higher risk. These comments critically examine the methods used by Cook and Nicholls and find serious flaws in them, sufficient to invalidate their conclusions. Specific flaws include 1) invalid assumptions in their analysis method, including that cyclones are assumed to be at the maximum intensity along their entire path across the sampling circle even after they have crossed extensive land areas; 2) a lack of verification that the simulated cyclone tracks are consistent with the known climatological data and in particular that the annual rate of simulated cyclones at each station greatly exceeds the numbers recorded for the entire Australian region; and 3) the apparent omission of key cyclones when comparing the risk at Darwin with two other locations. It is shown here that the number of cyclones that have affected Port Hedland (Western Australia), a site in Australia’s region D, greatly exceeds the number that have influenced Darwin over the same period for any chosen threshold of intensity. Analysis of the recorded gusts from anemometers at Port Hedland and Darwin that is presented here further supports this result. On the basis of this evidence, the authors conclude that Darwin’s tropical cyclone wind risk is adequately described by its current location in region C.
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Latysheva, I. V., K. A. Loshchenko, and S. Zh Vologzhina. "Circulation Factors in Climate Change in the Baikal Region." Bulletin of Irkutsk State University. Series Earth Sciences 42 (2022): 119–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.26516/2073-3402.2022.42.119.
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The paper presents the results of research conducted on large-scale and zonal atmospheric factors of climate variability over the territory of the Baikal region, which, according to Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) is considered to be one of the regions characterized by highest rates of climate change. On the basis of trend, correlation, and spectrum analyses, investigation was made of high- and low-frequency components in multidecadal timescales of climatic indices dynamics, which determine and distinguish variability in pressure fields and geopotential at high latitudes in the Northern hemisphere, in the northern parts of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans throughout the time period of 1950–2017. In the dynamics of climate indices, cyclicity is manifested. It reflects the contribution of short-term and long-term variations, which are close in duration to the variability of continental and oceanic centers of atmospheric action in the Northern Hemisphere. Among climatic indices, the highest levels of correlation with changes in average monthly temperatures in the city of Irkutsk can be traced for the Scandinavian index. With an increase in surface pressure in the territory of Scandinavia, the contribution of advective heat and moisture fluxes from the Atlantic is weakened. The latter have a warming effect in the winter months on the territory of the Irkutsk region. Particular emphasis was put on searching for causes of increasingly arid climate in the Baikal region in summer months of 2000–2017, when the number of forest fires in the region rose dramatically.
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Collis, Scott, Alain Protat, Peter T. May, and Christopher Williams. "Statistics of Storm Updraft Velocities from TWP-ICE Including Verification with Profiling Measurements." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 52, no. 8 (August 2013): 1909–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-12-0230.1.
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AbstractComparisons between direct measurements and modeled values of vertical air motions in precipitating systems are complicated by differences in temporal and spatial scales. On one hand, vertically profiling radars more directly measure the vertical air motion but do not adequately capture full storm dynamics. On the other hand, vertical air motions retrieved from two or more scanning Doppler radars capture the full storm dynamics but require model constraints that may not capture all updraft features because of inadequate sampling, resolution, numerical constraints, and the fact that the storm is evolving as it is scanned by the radars. To investigate the veracity of radar-based retrievals, which can be used to verify numerically modeled vertical air motions, this article presents several case studies from storm events around Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia, in which measurements from a dual-frequency radar profiler system and volumetric radar-based wind retrievals are compared. While a direct comparison was not possible because of instrumentation location, an indirect comparison shows promising results, with volume retrievals comparing well to those obtained from the profiling system. This prompted a statistical analysis of an extended period of an active monsoon period during the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE). Results show less vigorous deep convective cores with maximum updraft velocities occurring at lower heights than some cloud-resolving modeling studies suggest.
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Zeng, Xiping, Wei-Kuo Tao, Scott W. Powell, Robert A. Houze, Paul Ciesielski, Nick Guy, Harold Pierce, and Toshihisa Matsui. "A Comparison of the Water Budgets between Clouds from AMMA and TWP-ICE." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 70, no. 2 (February 1, 2013): 487–503. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-12-050.1.
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Abstract Two field campaigns, the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) and the Tropical Warm Pool–International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE), took place in 2006 near Niamey, Niger, and Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia, providing extensive observations of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) near a desert and a tropical coast, respectively. Under the constraint of their observations, three-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulations are carried out and presented in this paper to replicate the basic characteristics of the observed MCSs. All of the modeled MCSs exhibit a distinct structure having deep convective clouds accompanied by stratiform and anvil clouds. In contrast to the approximately 100-km-scale MCSs observed in TWP-ICE, the MCSs in AMMA have been successfully simulated with a scale of about 400 km. These modeled AMMA and TWP-ICE MCSs offer an opportunity to understand the structure and mechanism of MCSs. Comparing the water budgets between AMMA and TWP-ICE MCSs suggests that TWP-ICE convective clouds have stronger ascent while the mesoscale ascent outside convective clouds in AMMA is stronger. A case comparison, with the aid of sensitivity experiments, also suggests that vertical wind shear and ice crystal (or dust aerosol) concentration can significantly impact stratiform and anvil clouds (e.g., their areas) in MCSs. In addition, the obtained water budgets quantitatively describe the transport of water between convective, stratiform, and anvil regions as well as water sources/sinks from microphysical processes, providing information that can be used to help determine parameters in the convective and cloud parameterizations in general circulation models (GCMs).
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Drosdowsky, Wasyl, and Matthew C. Wheeler. "Predicting the Onset of the North Australian Wet Season with the POAMA Dynamical Prediction System." Weather and Forecasting 29, no. 1 (February 1, 2014): 150–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-13-00091.1.
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Abstract A forecast product focusing on the onset of the north Australian wet season using a dynamical ocean–atmosphere model is developed and verified. Onset is defined to occur when a threshold rainfall accumulation of 50 mm is reached from 1 September. This amount has been shown to be useful for agricultural applications, as it is about what is required to generate new plant growth after the usually dry period of June–August. The normal (median) onset date occurs first around Darwin in the north and Cairns in the east in late October, and is progressively later for locations farther inland away from these locations. However, there is significant interannual variability in the onset, and skillful predictions of this can be valuable. The potential of the Predictive Ocean–Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), version 2, for making probabilistic predictions of onset, derived from its multimember ensemble, is shown. Using 50 yr of hindcasts, POAMA is found to skillfully predict the variability of onset, despite a generally dry bias, with the “percent correct” exceeding 70% over about a third of the Northern Territory. In comparison to a previously developed statistical method based solely on El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the POAMA system shows improved skill scores, suggesting that it gains from additional sources of predictability. However, the POAMA hindcasts do not reproduce the observed long-term trend in onset dates over inland regions to an earlier date despite being initialized with the observed warming ocean temperatures. Understanding and modeling this trend should lead to further enhancements in skill.
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Liess, Stefan, Saurabh Agrawal, Snigdhansu Chatterjee, and Vipin Kumar. "A Teleconnection between the West Siberian Plain and the ENSO Region." Journal of Climate 30, no. 1 (January 2017): 301–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0884.1.
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The Walker circulation is linked to extratropical waves that are deflected from the Northern Hemisphere polar regions and travel southeastward over central Asia toward the western Pacific warm pool during northern winter. The wave pattern resembles the east Atlantic–west Russia pattern and influences the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) region. A tripole pattern between the West Siberian Plain and the two centers of action of ENSO indicates that the background state of ENSO with respect to global sea level pressure (SLP) has a significant negative correlation to the West Siberian Plain. The correlation with the background state, which is defined by the sum of the two centers of action of ENSO, is higher than each of the pairwise correlations with either of the ENSO centers alone. The centers are defined with a clustering algorithm that detects regions with similar characteristics. The normalized monthly SLP time series for the two centers of ENSO (around Darwin, Australia, and Tahiti) are area averaged, and the sum of both regions is considered as the background state of ENSO. This wave train can be detected throughout the troposphere and the lower stratosphere. Its origins can be traced back to Rossby wave activity triggered by convection over the subtropical North Atlantic that emanates wave activity toward the West Siberian Plain. The same wave train also propagates to the central Pacific Ocean around Tahiti and can be used to predict the background state over the ENSO region. This background state also modifies the subtropical bridge between tropical eastern Pacific and subtropical North Atlantic leading to a circumglobal wave train.
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KANE, R. P. "Quasi-biennial and quasi-triennial oscillations in the growth rates of atmospheric chlorofluorocarbons 11 and 12." MAUSAM 53, no. 3 (January 13, 2022): 349–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v53i3.1651.
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The 12-monthly running means of CFC-11 and CFC-12 were examined for 1977-1992. As observed by earlier workers, during 1977-1988, there was a rapid, almost linear increase of these compounds, ~70% in the northern and ~77% in the southern hemisphere. From 1988 up to 1992, growth rates were slower, more so for CFC-11 in the northern hemisphere. Superposed on this pattern were QBO, QTO (Quasi-Biennial and Quasi-Triennial Oscillations). A spectral analysis of the various series indicated the following. The 50 hPa low latitude zonal wind had one prominent QBO peak at 2.58 years and much smaller peaks at 2.00 (QBO) and 5.1 years. The Southern oscillation index represented by (T-D), Tahiti minus Darwin atmospheric pressure, had a prominent peak at 4.1 years and a smaller peak at 2.31 years. CFC-11 had only one significant peak at 3.7 years in the southern hemisphere, roughly similar to the 4.1 year (T-D) peak. CFC-12 had prominent QBO (2.16-2.33 years) in both the hemispheres and a QTO (3.6 years) in the southern hemisphere. For individual locations, CFC-11 showed barely significant QBO in the range (1.95-3.07 years), while CFC 12 showed strong QBO in the range (1.86-2.38 years). The difference in the spectral characteristics of CFC-11 and CFC 12 time series is attributed to differences in their lifetimes (44 and 180 years), source emission rates and transport processes.
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Kopytenkova, Olga I., and Alexander V. Levanchuk. "Hygienic characteristics of non-specific resistance in children living under the exposure of air pollutants in various climatic conditions." Hygiene and sanitation 100, no. 8 (August 31, 2021): 851–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.47470/0016-9900-2021-100-8-851-857.
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Introduction. On the territory of Russia, in cities with both developed industries and high levels of atmospheric pollution, located in northern climatic regions, a complex of hygienic problems has been formed that negatively affect the sanitary and epidemiological well-being and health of the population. The article presents the results of studying the nature of the combined effects of atmospheric air pollutants (Pinigin P index) and climatic conditions (WBGT-index) on individual indices of non-specific resistance in 5-6 year children. Materials and methods. To characterize the climatic conditions, the climatic indices were used (the coefficient of northernness of the Cs, the coefficient of continentality of the Sc, the index of climate severity SO, the Bodman weather severity index, as well as the WBGT, used in the armed forces for the climatic characteristics of the territory. To study non-specific resistance non-invasive methods were used: determination of bactericidal activity, bacterial contamination of the surface and deep layers of the skin, saliva lysozyme activity, and a thiol-disulfide test. Results. The combination of the adverse effects of a high level of anthropogenic air pollution and northern climatic conditions was found to have a more pronounced negative effect on non-specific resistance in children. A list of non-invasive indices sensitive to the adverse effects of the environment in areas with polluted atmospheric air in combination with northern climatic characteristics, including the integral feature of the functional state of the cardiorespiratory system (the Harvard step test index), indices of non-specific resistance (bactericidal activity of the skin, the state of the thiol-disulfide system of saliva) was formed. Conclusion. The more pronounced negative impact of the combination of high levels of anthropogenic air pollution and northern climatic conditions should be taken into account when organizing medical care for children and ensuring the sanitary and epidemiological well-being of the population exposed to the combined effects of anthropogenic pressure and northern climatic conditions.
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KANE, R. P. "Comparison of quasi-biennial oscillations of stratospheric winds and atmospheric temperatures at different altitudes." MAUSAM 49, no. 2 (December 16, 2021): 223–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v49i2.3622.
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During 1959-89, the 12-month running means of 50 hPa zonal winds, the average atmospheric temperatures in the northern and southern hemisphere at four altitude slabs (950 hPa, 850- 300 hPa, 300-100 hPa and 100-50 hPa), Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and-30hPa temperatures at North Pole and average for (10°-90° N), all showed quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO). However, whereas the wind QBO had an average spacing of 29 months, only temperatures at 300-100 hPa and Atlantic SST had similar average spacing. Other temperatures as also SO index (represented by Tahiti minus Darwin atmospheric pressure) had larger average spacing. Spectral analysis showed that whereas wind QBO had only one prominent peak at T=2.33 years, other parameters had weak QBOs near T=2.5-2.6 years except Pacific SST and 30 hPa North Pole temperature which had small peaks near T=2.3 years. All the temperatures had prominent peaks in the 3-6 year region which matched with similar peaks in the SO index. There is some indication that stratospheric wind QBO had some relation with parameters at all altitudes in tropics and with North Pole, while ENSO had considerable influence at other latitudes/altitudes.
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Zolotokrylin, A. N., T. B. Titkova, and D. D. Bokuchava. "The influence of weather-climatic and social factors on population mortality from circulatory diseases in Russia." Terapevticheskii arkhiv 90, no. 3 (March 15, 2018): 53–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.26442/terarkh201890353-59.
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Aim. To study the links between the standard mortality rate of the population from circulatory system diseases (CSD) with factors: weather-climatic (inter-day jumps in air temperature and atmospheric pressure by seasons and for the year) and social (average annual income per person and the number of doctors of all specialties) in Russia for the period 1995-2015. Materials and methods. According to station data and data of reanalysis, seasonal and annual amounts of day-to-day jumps in air temperature were calculated more than the absolute value of 4° and 6°C and the atmospheric pressure more than the absolute value of 8 GPa. The links between climate variables and the mortality rate of the population, taking into account social factors, were investigated using factor analysis, including regression and variance analyses. Results. Annual amounts of temperature (pressure) jumps of different signs vary greatly on the territory: the maximum amounts are 3-4 times higher than the minimum ones. The geographical distribution of air temperature fluctuations differs from the distribution of atmospheric pressure fluctuations. The sum of temperature jumps in the absolute value of more than 6°C is about twice less than the sum of jumps more than 4°C, but they are characterized by similarity of geographical distribution. The sum of the jumps of temperature (pressure) is reduced during the summer is approximately two times compared to the winter. The maximum jumps are observed mainly in the Northern regions with low population density, but with high per capita income, while the minimum is observed in the South-Western parts of the European part of the country with high population density, as well as middle and low income. Global warming does not significantly affect the reduction of annual amounts of temperature (pressure) jumps. Factor analysis of social and climatic variables in the territory for each year indicates the dominance of the influence of the social factor (per capita income) on the mortality rate from CSD. Conclusion. Factor analysis is integrated in the annual scale climatic and social variables showed a dominant effect on the coefficient of mortality from CSD, the factor of standard of living (per capita income of the population). Then the significance of the impact factors is consistently reduced: negative atmospheric pressure jumps, average seasonal pressure, health care level, positive pressure jumps. The significance of temperature variables is the smallest.
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Quilty, Simon, Danielle Valler, and John Attia. "Rural general physicians: improving access and reducing costs of health care in the bush." Australian Health Review 38, no. 4 (2014): 420. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/ah13197.
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Objective To assess the effectiveness of the introduction of a trainee specialist physician into the workforce mix of a rural hospital in the Northern Territory. Methods A retrospective review comparing clinical and non-clinical outcomes during two corresponding 6-month periods in 2011 and 2012, before and after a FRACP Trainee in General and Acute Care Medicine commenced employment in the hospital. Results There was a significant reduction of 18% in total length of stay of admitted adult patients, with a 23% reduction of inter-hospital transfers and a 43% reduction of total aeromedical evacuations after the introduction of the trainee specialist. Although there was a 9% increase in patients presenting to the emergency department, there was a 9% reduction in total adult admissions. There was no change in the overall in-patient mortality rate; however, there was a significant change in the location of death, with an increase in patients dying in Katherine Hospital and a reciprocal decrease in death rate in those who had been transferred to Royal Darwin Hospital after the arrival of the trainee Conclusions The addition of an Advanced Trainee in General Medicine led to a significant change in the capacity of the hospital to care for unwell and complex patients. The role of the hospital in the care of dying patients was redefined and allowed many more people to pass away closer to their community and families. There were considerable savings at Katherine Hospital in terms of reduced bed pressure, reduced hospital bypass behaviour and reduced inter-hospital transfers, and these translated into significant benefits for the tertiary referral hospital in Darwin. A rural general physician can greatly value add to the capacity of a rural hospital and is a highly effective mechanism for reducing the disparities in healthcare access for rural and Indigenous patients. What is known about this topic? There is little research about the clinical and non-clinical impact of the addition of general speciality clinicians into the workforce of rural hospitals. Although there are several regional hospitals in Australia that have general specialists (i.e. emergency department physicians, general physicians and surgeons) and sub-specialists where the volume of patients is adequate to support such a workforce, there has been no published assessment of the impact of the addition of such speciality services. What does this paper add? This paper provides evidence of the cost-effectiveness of the addition of a specialist general physician to the workforce of a remote hospital servicing a large Indigenous population with very high burdens of acute and chronic illnesses in the Northern Territory. The paper demonstrates the potential to significantly add capacity to a rural or regional hospital by moving general speciality care to the hospital rather than, or in addition to, providing other methods of speciality and sub-speciality health care delivery. What are the implications for practitioners? The implications of this paper are that a significantly cost-effective means of addressing health care delivery to rural and remote populations is through the addition of appropriately trained general specialists such as emergency department physicians, general physicians and general surgeons. The implications extend to broader workforce development policies for education providers, speciality colleges and state and federal governments.
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Wake, Cameron P., Kaplan Yalcin, and Niels S. Gundestrup. "The climate signal recorded in the oxygen-isotope, accumulation and major-ion time series from the Eclipse ice core, YukonTerritory, Canada." Annals of Glaciology 35 (2002): 416–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/172756402781817266.
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AbstractThe high accumulation rate, nearly complete preservation and detailed chronology of the Eclipse ice core, Yukon Territory, Canada, are well suited for comparison of the glaciochemical recordwith instrumental time series of temperature, precipitation and sea-level pressure. Results of cross-correlation analysis of instrumental temperature records with the Eclipse δ18O time series reveal a significant positive relationship between summertime δ18O at Eclipse and summer (April–September) temperatures in northwestern North America. the results indicate that the Eclipse δ18O time series provides a better proxy for regional temperature than does the δ18O time series from the Mount Logan ice-core record for which only negative correlations were found. Winter accumulation at Eclipse is significantly correlated with several sites in Alaska, but not with any sites in the Yukon. the δ18O, accumulation and glaciochemical time series also display significant correlations with the Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure dataset, especially between wintertime sulfate and nitrate concentrations at Eclipse and the intensity of the wintertime Siberian high and Aleutian and Icelandic lows. These results suggest that year-to-year variability in the deposition of pollutants at Eclipse can be linked to changes in atmospheric circulation, while long-term trends can be explained by changes in source strength.
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Chartko, M. K., and A. A. Karpichenka. "Atmospheric precipitation on the soils of Belarusian Polesye." Fundamental and Applied Soil Science 16, no. 1-2 (May 21, 2015): 26–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.15421/041503.
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The article considers the influence of atmospheric precipitation in the form of dust and dry residue with rain and snow in the formation of technogenic situations in the soils of the Belarusian Polesye. Anthropogenic impact on the soil is formed as a result of entering into the soil of technogenesis product, is made up of atmospheric precipitation in the form of dust and rain, as well as key components of chemical reclamation (Ca, Mg, K, N, P) of soil. Based on field research and data of the Hydrometeorological Service of Belarus there was generalized the information and disclosed the regularities of dust deposition and mineral residue precipitation in Belarusian Polesye. Mapping the anthropogenic impact on the soil was performed using software packages ESRI ArcView and ESRI ArcGIS. It is set a noticeable spatial heterogeneity in the level of anthropogenic impact on the soil of the Belarusian Polesye, ranging from 6,3 t/ha per year in the district of Gantsevichi to 17,6 t/ha in Malorita district, Brest region. There is a general tendency of increasing of the given parameter in the direction from north-east to south-west of Polesye. The level of anthropogenic impact is largely dependent on natural (soil properties and structure of the soil) and economic (level of development and specialization of industry and agriculture) factors. The lowest value of the anthropogenic impact (less than 7,5 t/ha per year) is characteristic for areas with underdeveloped industry and a high proportion of drained peat soils: Gantsevichi, Oktyabrsky, Narovlya and Zhitkovichi. For the western part of the Belarusian Polesye (Malorita, Stolin, Ivanovo, Berezovsky, Drogichin areas) other than large areas of sandy soils, characterized by increased loads on agropochvy (12,1 or more t/ha per year), the largest contribution falls on the organic fertilizers. Technogenic situation in the soils was estimated based on the amount of annual agrotechnogenic load on the soil, air emissions from stationary sources and the level of radioactive contamination, formed as a result of the Chernobyl accident. As a result, we allocated favorable, satisfactory, conflict, tension, and critical situation. Favorable technogenic situation is typical for soils under forests and within specially protected areas (national parks and nature reserves) with anthropogenic load of less than 1 t/ha, not contaminated and distant from industrial centers. Such conditions correspond to 15 % of the Belarusian Polesye near major rivers and their tributaries in the region (the area between the Dnieper and the Sozh, the middle flow for the Pripyat and its tributaries Sluch, Yaselda, Ubort). A satisfactory situation has developed for 28,5 % of the territory, mainly within the northern part of the Pripyat Polesye due to a moderate level of anthropogenic pressure, in part – in the border of forest and wetland areas due to contamination with radionuclides. The conflict situation is typical for the northern part of Brest and Mozyr Polesye, on the right bank of the Dnieper and Berezina rivers, as well as in the area between Pina and Goryn rivers (27,7 %). In the southern part of the Brest Polesye, as well as in the countryside and along the Goryn river valley there is a tense situation (22,2 %), due to high anthropogenic pressure and intensive agricultural activities, in the latter case – also complicated by radioactive contamination. Critical man-made situation (7 %), which is observed in the south-east of Polesye, is due to high levels of radioactive contamination within the Polesye State Radiation Ecological Reserve and adjacent areas, despite the relatively low levels of air and agrotechnogenic pollution.
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Frolov, D. "Considerable Arctic Sea ice loss as a factor of cold weather and heavy snowfalls in Eurasia." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1023, no. 1 (May 1, 2022): 012006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1023/1/012006.
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Abstract There goes climate warming on the Earth. An especially tremendous warming goes in the Arctic. This causes shrinking of the sea ice extent in the Arctic. Considerable Arctic Sea ice loss can lead to some extra evaporation of water vapor from the sea surface and saturation of the atmosphere with water vapor. Due to atmospheric circulation, extreme temperature anomalies and heavy snowfalls can appear in the following winter season in the lower latitudes, according to a number of studies. Some warm winters in Eurasia and America are associated with a situation in the Arctic where an extremely stable area of low pressure in the vicinity of the North Pole was present during a long time period and did not let cold air masses to move away from its borders. As a consequence, in most of the territory of Russia, USA, Northern Europe, and Eastern Canada the temperature of the winter months was a few degrees more than the usual one, for example in 2019/2020 winter months. The resulting destruction of the North Pole vortex and coming of cold air masses to Eurasia and America lead to a cold snowy winter.
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Sanuy, Marc, Tomeu Rigo, José A. Jiménez, and M. Carmen Llasat. "Classifying compound coastal storm and heavy rainfall events in the north-western Spanish Mediterranean." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 25, no. 6 (July 1, 2021): 3759–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3759-2021.
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Abstract. The north-west (NW) Mediterranean coastal zone is a populous and well-developed area in which the impact of natural hazards like flash floods and coastal storms can result in frequent and significant damages. Although the occurrence and impacts of such hazards have been widely covered, few studies have considered their combined impact on the region, which would result in more damage. Within this context, this study analyses the occurrence and characteristics of compound extreme events of heavy rainfall episodes (as a proxy for flash floods) and coastal storms (using the maximum significant wave height) along the Catalan coast as a paradigm of the NW Mediterranean. Two different types of events are considered: multivariate, in which the two hazards occur at the same location, and spatially compounding, in which they occur within the same limited time window, and their impacts accumulate at distinct and separate locations. The analysis is regionally performed along a coastline extension of about 600 km by considering seven coastal sectors and their corresponding river catchment basins. Once the compound events are analysed, the synoptic atmospheric pressure fields are analysed to determine the prevailing weather conditions that generated them. Finally, a Bayesian network is used to fully characterize these events over the territory. The obtained results show that the NW Mediterranean, represented by the Catalan coast, has a high probability of experiencing compound extreme events. Despite the relatively small size of the study area, there are significant variations in the event characteristics along the territory, with the most frequent type being spatially compound, except in the northernmost sectors where multivariate events dominate. These northern sectors also present the highest correlation in the intensity of both hazards. Three representative synoptic situations have been identified as dominant for the occurrence of these events, with different relative importance levels of the compounding drivers (rainfall and waves) and different distributions of impacts across coastal basins. Overall, results obtained from specific events indicated that heavy rainfall is related to the most significant impacts despite having a larger spatial reach.
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Spanner, Gustavo Carvalho, Raírys Cravo Herrera, Wellington De Pinho Alvarez, Lucas De Oliveira Lima, and Adriano José Nogueira Lima. "Distribuição potencial de Vouacapoua americana Aubl. na Amazônia brasileira e o impacto da mudança no uso do solo." Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física 14, no. 2 (April 20, 2021): 1094. http://dx.doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v14.2.p1094-1115.
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Modelos de Distribuição de Espécies são úteis na descoberta de padrões de distribuição das espécies, e das variáveis que estão influenciando. O objetivo deste trabalho foi descrever a distribuição potencial de Vouacapoua americana para o território amazônico, bem como verificar pressão antropogênica nos locais de ocorrência. Foram utilizados os dados de ocorrência da espécie obtidos por registros em herbários e variáveis climáticas derivadas de precipitação e temperatura. Modelos foram gerados através do algoritmo de máxima entropia e validados a partir de matrizes de confusão e da área sob a Curva. Dados secundárias de uso do solo, desflorestamento, pastagens e queimadas de diferentes plataformas foram processados no open gis QGIS 3.14. Constatou-se ocorrência da espécie ao norte da América do Sul. Na Amazônia brasileira, no arco de ocupação consolidada, foram identificados 294 focos de calor e 98,521 km² de pastagens. Estudos com essa abordagem podem subsidiar políticas públicas para conservação da biodiversidade. Potential distribution of Vouacapoua americana Aubl. in the Brazilian Amazon and the impact of the change in land useA B S T R A C TPredictive modelling has been used to analyze species geographic distribution based on conditioning variables. The objective of this work was to describe a potential distribution of Vouacapoua americana to the Amazonian territory, checking if the species is under anthropogenic pressure in the occurrence sites. Data on the occurrence of the species were used, using records in herbariums and climatic variables derived from precipitation and temperature. Models were generated using the maximum entropy algorithm and validated from confusion matrices and the area under the curve. Secondary data on land use, deforestation, pastures and forest fires were processed in the open gis QGIS 3.14. The species was found in northern South America. A total of 294 foci of calories and 98,521 km² of pastures were found in endemic areas of the Vouacapoua americana in the Brazilian Amazon. The result is that the species receives anthropogenic pressure, making it necessary for public policies to conserve biodiversity.
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Kulesza, Kinga. "Uwarunkowania cyrkulacyjne ilości całkowitego promieniowania słonecznego docierającego do powierzchni ziemi w Polsce w latach 1986–2015 = Atmospheric circulation determinants of the amount of global solar radiation reaching the land surface in Poland in the years 1986–2015." Przegląd Geograficzny 92, no. 3 (2020): 341–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.7163/przg.2020.3.2.
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Solar radiation is a key element of the Earth’s climate system and one of the most important variables in the energy balance of the active surface. The inflow of radiant energy to the Earth’s surface depends on the movement (circulation) of the atmosphere and on the associated changes in the amount of aerosols contained in the atmosphere as well as on cloudiness changes (which reduce the inflow of radiation to the Earth’s surface through reflection, dispersion and absorption processes). In that context, the work detailed in this paper had as its main aim a determination of the influence of atmospheric circulation on the amount of global solar radiation reaching the land surface in Poland. The research was based on source material from 1986–2015, originating from meteorological reanalyses and satellite products. Global solar radiation was analysed based on data from CM SAF satellite products, while atmospheric circulation types were designated with the use of modified version of the Lityński’s classification. Mean daily sums of radiation during individual circulation types, during A, 0, C macrotypes and on days with advection from particular directions were presented. Also the spatial distribution of radiation over the area of Poland during individual circulation types was shown. In the analyses special attention was paid to days with extremely large sums of solar radiation (above the 0.95 percentile). The largest daily sums of solar radiation are connected with anticyclonic circulation types, and the smallest ones – with cyclonic types. The largest mean daily sum of solar radiation occurs during south-western anticyclonic circulation, which is related to the significantly expanded Azores High. The smallest daily sums of solar radiation occur during cyclonic types, with advection of air masses from the north and east – in spring during NWC type, in autumn during EC type, in summer and winter during NEC type. The spatial distribution of solar radiation daily sums over the territory of Poland also depends on the circulation type. For most of the year, the circulation types with the northern and eastern components (N-NE-E) are associated with the reduction of the amount of solar radiation from north to south, while the inflow of air masses from the S-SW-W directions favours the reduction of radiation from south to north. Extremely large sums of solar radiation occur most probably during anticyclonic types with advection of air masses from SW, S and SE, and during the advectionless circulation 0A (conditional probability 0.13, 0.13, 0.11 and 0.10 respectively). The paper also demonstrates that the circulation type (i.e. prevailing pressure system) has a greater influence on daily sums of global solar radiation over Poland than the direction of air masses advection. The research results show that atmospheric circulation plays a significant role in determining the amount of solar radiation reaching the land surface in Poland.
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Pereira, S., A. M. Ramos, J. L. Zêzere, R. M. Trigo, and J. M. Vaquero. "Spatial impact and triggering conditions of the exceptional hydro-geomorphological event of December 1909 in Iberia." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 3, no. 9 (September 29, 2015): 5805–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-5805-2015.
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Abstract. According to the DISASTER database the 20–28 December 1909 was the hydro-geomorphologic event with the highest number of flood and landslide cases occurred in Portugal in the period 1865–2010 (Zêzere et al., 2014). This event also caused important social impacts over the Spanish territory, especially in the Douro basin, having triggered the highest floods in more than 100 years at the river's mouth in the city of Oporto. This work aims to characterize the spatial distribution and social impacts of the December 1909 hydro-geomorphologic event over Iberia. In addition, the meteorological conditions that triggered the event are analysed using the 20 Century Reanalysis dataset from NOAA and precipitation data from Iberian meteorological stations. The Iberian Peninsula was spatially affected during this event along the SW-NE direction spanning from Lisbon, Santarém, Oporto and Guarda (in Portugal), until Salamanca, Valladolid, Zamora, Orense, León and Palencia (in Spain). In Iberia, 134 DISASTER cases were recorded (130 flood cases; 4 landslides cases) having caused a total of 89 casualties (57 in floods and 32 in landslides) and a total of 3876 people were affected, including fatalities, injured, missing, evacuated and homeless people. This event was associated with some outstanding precipitation values at Guarda station (Portugal) in 22 December 1909 and unusual meteorological conditions characterized by the presence of a deep low pressure system located over NW Iberian Peninsula with a stationary frontal system striking the Western Iberian Peninsula. The presence of an upper-level jet (250 hPa) and low-level jet (900 hPa) located on SW-NE oriented towards the Iberia along with upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence favoured large-scale precipitation. Finally, associated with these features it is possible to state that this extreme event was clearly associated to the presence of an elongated Atmospheric River, crossing the entire northern Atlantic basin and providing a continuous supply of moisture that contributed to enhance precipitation. This work contributes to a comprehensive and systematic synoptic evaluation of the second most deadly hydro-geomorphologic Disaster event occurred in Portugal since 1865 and will help to better understand the meteorological system that was responsible for triggering the event.
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Pereira, S., A. M. Ramos, J. L. Zêzere, R. M. Trigo, and J. M. Vaquero. "Spatial impact and triggering conditions of the exceptional hydro-geomorphological event of December 1909 in Iberia." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 16, no. 2 (February 5, 2016): 371–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-371-2016.
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Abstract. According to the DISASTER database the 20–28 December 1909 event was the hydro-geomorphologic event with the highest number of flood and landslide cases that occurred in Portugal in the period 1865–2010 (Zêzere et al., 2014). This event also caused important social impacts over the Spanish territory, especially in the Douro Basin, having triggered the highest floods in more than 100 years at the river's mouth in the city of Oporto. This work has a dual purpose: (i) to characterize the spatial distribution and social impacts of the December 1909 hydro-geomorphologic DISASTER event over Portugal and Spain; (ii) to analyse the meteorological conditions that triggered the event and the spatial distribution of the precipitation anomalies. Social impacts that occurred in Portugal were obtained from the Disaster database (Zêzere et al., 2014) whereas the data collection for Spain was supported by the systematic analysis of Spanish daily newspapers. In addition, the meteorological conditions that triggered the event are analysed using the 20th Century Reanalysis data set from NOAA and precipitation data from Iberian meteorological stations. The Iberian Peninsula was spatially affected during this event along the SW-NE direction spanning from Lisbon, Santarém, Oporto, and Guarda (in Portugal), to Salamanca, Valladolid, Zamora, Orense, León, and Palencia (in Spain). In Iberia, 134 DISASTER cases were recorded (130 flood cases; 4 landslides cases) having caused 89 casualties (57 due to floods and 32 due to landslides) and a further total of 3876 affected people, including fatalities, injured, missing, evacuated, and homeless people. This event was associated with outstanding precipitation registered at Guarda (Portugal) on 22 December 1909 and unusual meteorological conditions characterized by the presence of a deep low-pressure system located over the NW Iberian Peninsula with a stationary frontal system striking the western Iberian Peninsula. The presence of an upper-level jet (250 hPa) and low-level jet (900 hPa) located SW–NE oriented towards Iberia along with upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence favoured large-scale precipitation. Finally, associated with these features it is possible to state that this extreme event was clearly associated with the presence of an elongated Atmospheric River, crossing the entire northern Atlantic Basin and providing a continuous supply of moisture that contributed to enhance precipitation. This work contributes to a comprehensive and systematic synoptic evaluation of the second most deadly hydro-geomorphologic DISASTER event that has occurred in Portugal since 1865 and will help to better understand the meteorological system that was responsible for triggering the event.