Journal articles on the topic 'Atmospheric circulation Northern Territory Darwin'
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1
Zeng, Xiping, Wei-Kuo Tao, Scott W. Powell, Robert A. Houze, Paul Ciesielski, Nick Guy, Harold Pierce, and Toshihisa Matsui. "A Comparison of the Water Budgets between Clouds from AMMA and TWP-ICE." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 70, no. 2 (February 1, 2013): 487–503. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-12-050.1.
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Abstract Two field campaigns, the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) and the Tropical Warm Pool–International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE), took place in 2006 near Niamey, Niger, and Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia, providing extensive observations of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) near a desert and a tropical coast, respectively. Under the constraint of their observations, three-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulations are carried out and presented in this paper to replicate the basic characteristics of the observed MCSs. All of the modeled MCSs exhibit a distinct structure having deep convective clouds accompanied by stratiform and anvil clouds. In contrast to the approximately 100-km-scale MCSs observed in TWP-ICE, the MCSs in AMMA have been successfully simulated with a scale of about 400 km. These modeled AMMA and TWP-ICE MCSs offer an opportunity to understand the structure and mechanism of MCSs. Comparing the water budgets between AMMA and TWP-ICE MCSs suggests that TWP-ICE convective clouds have stronger ascent while the mesoscale ascent outside convective clouds in AMMA is stronger. A case comparison, with the aid of sensitivity experiments, also suggests that vertical wind shear and ice crystal (or dust aerosol) concentration can significantly impact stratiform and anvil clouds (e.g., their areas) in MCSs. In addition, the obtained water budgets quantitatively describe the transport of water between convective, stratiform, and anvil regions as well as water sources/sinks from microphysical processes, providing information that can be used to help determine parameters in the convective and cloud parameterizations in general circulation models (GCMs).
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Cook, Garry D., and Michael J. Nicholls. "Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Wind Hazard for Darwin: Comparison with Two Other Locations and the Australian Wind-Loading Code." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 48, no. 11 (November 1, 2009): 2331–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jamc2013.1.
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Abstract The passage of three Australian Category 5 cyclones within 350 km of Darwin (Northern Territory), Australia, during the last decade indicates that that city should have a high wind hazard. In this paper, the wind hazard for Darwin was compared with that for Port Hedland (Western Australia) and Townsville (Queensland) using data from a coupled ocean–atmosphere simulation model and from historical and satellite-era records of tropical cyclones. According to the authoritative statement on wind hazard in Australia, Darwin’s wind hazard is the same as Townsville’s but both locations’ hazards are much less than that of Port Hedland. However, three different estimates in this study indicate that Darwin’s wind hazard at the long return periods relevant to engineering requirements is higher than for both Port Hedland and Townsville. The discrepancy with previous studies may result from the inadequate cyclone records in the low-latitude north of Australia, from accumulated errors from estimates of wind speeds from wind fields and wind–pressure relationships, and from inappropriate extrapolations of short-period records based on assumed probability distributions. It is concluded that the current wind-hazard zoning of northern Australia seriously underestimates the hazard near Darwin and that coupled ocean–atmosphere simulation models could contribute to its revision.
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Latysheva, I. V., K. A. Loshchenko, and S. Zh Vologzhina. "Circulation Factors in Climate Change in the Baikal Region." Bulletin of Irkutsk State University. Series Earth Sciences 42 (2022): 119–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.26516/2073-3402.2022.42.119.
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The paper presents the results of research conducted on large-scale and zonal atmospheric factors of climate variability over the territory of the Baikal region, which, according to Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) is considered to be one of the regions characterized by highest rates of climate change. On the basis of trend, correlation, and spectrum analyses, investigation was made of high- and low-frequency components in multidecadal timescales of climatic indices dynamics, which determine and distinguish variability in pressure fields and geopotential at high latitudes in the Northern hemisphere, in the northern parts of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans throughout the time period of 1950–2017. In the dynamics of climate indices, cyclicity is manifested. It reflects the contribution of short-term and long-term variations, which are close in duration to the variability of continental and oceanic centers of atmospheric action in the Northern Hemisphere. Among climatic indices, the highest levels of correlation with changes in average monthly temperatures in the city of Irkutsk can be traced for the Scandinavian index. With an increase in surface pressure in the territory of Scandinavia, the contribution of advective heat and moisture fluxes from the Atlantic is weakened. The latter have a warming effect in the winter months on the territory of the Irkutsk region. Particular emphasis was put on searching for causes of increasingly arid climate in the Baikal region in summer months of 2000–2017, when the number of forest fires in the region rose dramatically.
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Harper, Bruce A., John D. Holmes, Jeffrey D. Kepert, Luciano B. Mason, and Peter J. Vickery. "Comments on “Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Wind Hazard for Darwin: Comparison with Two Other Locations and the Australian Wind-Loading Code”." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 51, no. 1 (January 2012): 161–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-10-05011.1.
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AbstractCook and Nicholls recently argued in this journal that the city of Darwin (Northern Territory), Australia, should be located in wind region D rather than in the current region C in the Australian/New Zealand Standard AS/NZS 1170.2 wind actions standard, in which region D has significantly higher risk. These comments critically examine the methods used by Cook and Nicholls and find serious flaws in them, sufficient to invalidate their conclusions. Specific flaws include 1) invalid assumptions in their analysis method, including that cyclones are assumed to be at the maximum intensity along their entire path across the sampling circle even after they have crossed extensive land areas; 2) a lack of verification that the simulated cyclone tracks are consistent with the known climatological data and in particular that the annual rate of simulated cyclones at each station greatly exceeds the numbers recorded for the entire Australian region; and 3) the apparent omission of key cyclones when comparing the risk at Darwin with two other locations. It is shown here that the number of cyclones that have affected Port Hedland (Western Australia), a site in Australia’s region D, greatly exceeds the number that have influenced Darwin over the same period for any chosen threshold of intensity. Analysis of the recorded gusts from anemometers at Port Hedland and Darwin that is presented here further supports this result. On the basis of this evidence, the authors conclude that Darwin’s tropical cyclone wind risk is adequately described by its current location in region C.
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Cook, Garry D., and Michael J. Nicholls. "Reply." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 51, no. 1 (January 2012): 172–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-11-059.1.
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AbstractA reexamination of the wind hazard from tropical cyclones for the city of Darwin (Northern Territory), Australia, by Cook and Nicholls concluded that its wind hazard is substantially underestimated by its allocation to region C in the Australian wind code. This conclusion was dismissed by Harper et al. on the basis of interpretation of anemometer records and Dvorak central pressure estimates as well as criticism of the simple technique and data used to interpret historic records. Of the 44 years of historical anemometer records presented by Harper et al. for Darwin, however, only one record was for a direct hit by an intense tropical cyclone. The other records derive from distant and/or weak tropical cyclones, which are not applicable to understanding the wind hazard at long return periods. The Dvorak central pressure estimates from which Harper et al. conclude that Port Hedland (Western Australia), Australia, has a greater wind hazard than Darwin does, when back transformed to Dvorak current-intensity values and gust speeds, indicate the converse. The simple technique used to derive wind hazard from historical cyclone occurrence is defended in detail and shown to produce estimates of wind hazard that are close to those accepted for five locations on the hurricane-affected coastline of the U.S. mainland. Thus the criticisms by Harper et al. of Cook and Nicholl’s work are shown to be invalid and the original conclusion that Darwin’s wind hazard is substantially underestimated in the current Australian wind code is supported.
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Khan, V. M. "Overview of current and expected seasonal climatic anomalies for the winter 2021/2022 with their possible impact on the economy, as estimated by the meteorological services of the CIS countries." Hydrometeorological research and forecasting 4 (December 16, 2021): 163–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.37162/2618-9631-2021-4-163-176.
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Based on assessments of the meteorological services of the CIS countries, the skill scores of the consensus forecast for the territory of Northern Eurasia for the summer of 2021 are presented. The results of monitoring circulation patterns in the stratosphere and troposphere over the past summer season are discussed. Climate monitoring and seasonal forecasting results for the current situation are presented. A probabilistic consensus forecast for air temperature and precipitation is presented for the upcoming winter season 2021/2022 in Northern Eurasia. Possible consequences of the impact of the expected anomalies of meteorological parameters on the economy sectors and social life are discussed. Keywords: North Eurasian Climate Forum, North Eurasian Climate Center, consensus forecast, air temperature, precipitation, large-scale atmospheric circulation, hydrodynamic models, sea surface temperature, impacts
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Mal’neva, I. V. "Prediction of modern geological processes in the territory of Russia and CIS countries in the early XXI century." Геоэкология. Инженерная геология. Гидрогеология. Геокриология, no. 1 (April 17, 2019): 60–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.31857/s0869-78092019160-69.
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The paper considers the modern problems in prediction of hazardous geological processes in the XXI century. It is noted that the peculiarities of the prediction of the most hazardous geological processes (landslides, mudflows, etc.) are connected with global climatic changes and a technogenic factor. The assessment of climatic changes and the most largest catastrophic disasters was carried out with use of the typification of atmospheric circulation in the Northern hemisphere, developed by B. L. Dzerdzeevskii. The data of the typification for the period from 1899 to 2017 can be found on the Internet website www. atmospheric-circulation.ru in open access. The major disasters are considered that caused an activation of landslides and mudflows. The interaction of natural and technogenic factors is described during these disasters. The prediction took into consideration the changes in solar activity and features of space weather.
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Liess, Stefan, Saurabh Agrawal, Snigdhansu Chatterjee, and Vipin Kumar. "A Teleconnection between the West Siberian Plain and the ENSO Region." Journal of Climate 30, no. 1 (January 2017): 301–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0884.1.
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The Walker circulation is linked to extratropical waves that are deflected from the Northern Hemisphere polar regions and travel southeastward over central Asia toward the western Pacific warm pool during northern winter. The wave pattern resembles the east Atlantic–west Russia pattern and influences the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) region. A tripole pattern between the West Siberian Plain and the two centers of action of ENSO indicates that the background state of ENSO with respect to global sea level pressure (SLP) has a significant negative correlation to the West Siberian Plain. The correlation with the background state, which is defined by the sum of the two centers of action of ENSO, is higher than each of the pairwise correlations with either of the ENSO centers alone. The centers are defined with a clustering algorithm that detects regions with similar characteristics. The normalized monthly SLP time series for the two centers of ENSO (around Darwin, Australia, and Tahiti) are area averaged, and the sum of both regions is considered as the background state of ENSO. This wave train can be detected throughout the troposphere and the lower stratosphere. Its origins can be traced back to Rossby wave activity triggered by convection over the subtropical North Atlantic that emanates wave activity toward the West Siberian Plain. The same wave train also propagates to the central Pacific Ocean around Tahiti and can be used to predict the background state over the ENSO region. This background state also modifies the subtropical bridge between tropical eastern Pacific and subtropical North Atlantic leading to a circumglobal wave train.
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Kononova, N. K. "Weather extremums in Siberia in 2019 and their connection with circulation of the atmosphere." Environmental Dynamics and Global Climate Change 10, no. 2 (February 24, 2020): 110–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.17816/edgcc21204.
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According to the circulation seasons [Dzerdzeevsky et al., 1946], according to the website Weather News, extreme events in the Asian territory of Russia for first half of 2019 were considered: daily maximums and minimums of air temperature; maximum daily amplitudes of air temperature, daily maximums and monthly lows of atmospheric precipitation; daily maximums wind speeds, maximum and minimum of snow depths and dangerous natural processes. Their connection with the atmospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere has been shown [Atmospheric Circulation fluctuations site 18992018].
In recent years, extreme situations are increasingly becoming apparent in the Asian part of Russia. This attracts the close attention of researchers [Latysheva et al., 2010; Zolina, Bulygina, 2016]. They try to identify the causes of what is happening [Vasilyev et al., 2018; Kononova, 2018; Kochugova, 2018; Tarabukina et al., 2018] and predict the future nature of extrema [Shkolnik et al., 2012]. It seemed interesting to analyze the extremes of the current year (more precisely, the first half of it), to show the real situation today.
The majority of extremes, surpassed in the first half of 2019, refers to the 21st century. This means that extremity has been growing rapidly in recent years. The consequence of this is an increase in the frequency of occurrence of dangerous natural processes.
The main source of information on daily meteorological extremes was Weather News [Meteonovosti.ru]. It briefly informed about fires and floods. More detailed information was taken from local sites [Amur.Info, Taiga.Info, Ulpress.ru, Social media news]. The character of atmospheric circulation was analyzed by classification [Dzerdzeevsky et al., 1946] using data from the site of the Atmospheric Circulation fluctuations.. for 1899 2018
The most disastrous flood was June 24 - 29 in the Irkutsk region. It destroyed more than 10,000 residential homes in 98 settlements, 43 schools, kindergartens and hospitals. According to information on July 11, 25 people died.
The strongest were fires in the Krasnoyarsk Territory and the Irkutsk Region in the third decade of July. Smoke from them reached the Ulyanovsk region.
The conducted research allows to draw the following conclusions. The number of extremes of both air temperature and precipitation in the XXI century continues to grow. Negative extremes of precipitation in combination with positive extremes of air temperature lead to natural fires, positive extremes of precipitation - to catastrophic floods. The increasing frequency of atmospheric circulation contributes to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of those and others: an increase in the frequency of occurrence of blocking processes (arctic invasions resulting in the formation of a vast stationary anticyclone) and exits of southern cyclones.
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Collis, Scott, Alain Protat, Peter T. May, and Christopher Williams. "Statistics of Storm Updraft Velocities from TWP-ICE Including Verification with Profiling Measurements." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 52, no. 8 (August 2013): 1909–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-12-0230.1.
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AbstractComparisons between direct measurements and modeled values of vertical air motions in precipitating systems are complicated by differences in temporal and spatial scales. On one hand, vertically profiling radars more directly measure the vertical air motion but do not adequately capture full storm dynamics. On the other hand, vertical air motions retrieved from two or more scanning Doppler radars capture the full storm dynamics but require model constraints that may not capture all updraft features because of inadequate sampling, resolution, numerical constraints, and the fact that the storm is evolving as it is scanned by the radars. To investigate the veracity of radar-based retrievals, which can be used to verify numerically modeled vertical air motions, this article presents several case studies from storm events around Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia, in which measurements from a dual-frequency radar profiler system and volumetric radar-based wind retrievals are compared. While a direct comparison was not possible because of instrumentation location, an indirect comparison shows promising results, with volume retrievals comparing well to those obtained from the profiling system. This prompted a statistical analysis of an extended period of an active monsoon period during the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE). Results show less vigorous deep convective cores with maximum updraft velocities occurring at lower heights than some cloud-resolving modeling studies suggest.
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Гечайте, Индре, Indre Gecaite, Александр Погорельцев, Aleksandr Pogoreltsev, Александр Угрюмов, and Aleksandr Ugryumov. "Arctic Oscillation impact on thermal regime of the Baltic region Eastern part." Solnechno-Zemnaya Fizika 2, no. 1 (March 17, 2016): 64–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/13478.
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Statistical estimations of Arctic Oscillation (AO) impact on air temperature regime in the Eastern part of Baltic region are presented. The region is characterized by high inter-annual and inter-seasonal variabilities. It is important to note that in the region of global warming extremely low winter temperatures can be observed on the European territory of Russia. AO is one of large-scale global structures of atmospheric circulation closely associated with weather variability in Northern Europe. AО anomalies occur in the upper atmosphere (stratosphere) and only then transferred to tropospheric lower layers. The anomalies can be preserved during long period up to two months, so they can be predictors in long-range weather forecast. In turn, changes in stratospheric polar vortex and sudden stratospheric warmings can be related to the geomagnetic activity. Perhaps, the geomagnetic activity influences the meridional temperature gradient and then changes in the structure of the stratospheric zonal wind. In turn, the changes have an impact on the tropospheric circulation. The stratosphere–troposphere connection occurs during winter months. Therefore, the paper presents the analysis of extremely cold winter anomalies in the Eastern part of Baltic Sea region. At the same time, we considered atmospheric circulation peculiarities related to AO phase change. The analyzable time interval covers 1951–2014.
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Гечайте, Индре, Indre Gecaite, Александр Погорельцев, Aleksandr Pogoreltsev, Александр Угрюмов, and Aleksandr Ugryumov. "Arctic Oscillation impact on thermal regime in the Eastern part of the Baltic region." Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2, no. 1 (June 1, 2016): 89–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/19881.
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The paper presents statistical estimations of Arctic Oscillation (AO) impact on air temperature regime in the eastern part of the Baltic region. The region is characterized by high inter-annual and inter-seasonal variability. It is important to note that in the region of global warming extremely low winter temperatures can be observed on the European territory of Russia. AO is one of the large-scale global patterns of atmospheric circulation closely associated with weather variability in northern Europe. AО anomalies occur in the upper atmosphere (stratosphere) and only then are transferred to tropospheric lower layers. The anomalies can persist over a long period of time (up to two months); so they can serve as precursors in long-range weather forecasts. In turn, changes in stratospheric polar vortex and sudden stratospheric warmings can be related to geomagnetic activity. Perhaps geomagnetic activity influences the meridional temperature gradient and then changes the structure of the stratospheric zonal wind. These changes have an effect on the tropospheric circulation. The stratosphere–troposphere coupling takes place during winter months. Therefore, the paper deals with extremely cold winter anomalies in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea region. At the same time, we examine atmospheric circulation peculiarities associated with AO phase change. We analyze data for 1951–2014.
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Drosdowsky, Wasyl, and Matthew C. Wheeler. "Predicting the Onset of the North Australian Wet Season with the POAMA Dynamical Prediction System." Weather and Forecasting 29, no. 1 (February 1, 2014): 150–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-13-00091.1.
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Abstract A forecast product focusing on the onset of the north Australian wet season using a dynamical ocean–atmosphere model is developed and verified. Onset is defined to occur when a threshold rainfall accumulation of 50 mm is reached from 1 September. This amount has been shown to be useful for agricultural applications, as it is about what is required to generate new plant growth after the usually dry period of June–August. The normal (median) onset date occurs first around Darwin in the north and Cairns in the east in late October, and is progressively later for locations farther inland away from these locations. However, there is significant interannual variability in the onset, and skillful predictions of this can be valuable. The potential of the Predictive Ocean–Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), version 2, for making probabilistic predictions of onset, derived from its multimember ensemble, is shown. Using 50 yr of hindcasts, POAMA is found to skillfully predict the variability of onset, despite a generally dry bias, with the “percent correct” exceeding 70% over about a third of the Northern Territory. In comparison to a previously developed statistical method based solely on El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the POAMA system shows improved skill scores, suggesting that it gains from additional sources of predictability. However, the POAMA hindcasts do not reproduce the observed long-term trend in onset dates over inland regions to an earlier date despite being initialized with the observed warming ocean temperatures. Understanding and modeling this trend should lead to further enhancements in skill.
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Ivus, H. P., L. D. Goncharova, and N. I. Kosolapova. "Spatio-temporal distribution of atmospheric precipitation in the Odesa region at the beginning of the 21st century." Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal, no. 22 (December 3, 2018): 16–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.22.2018.02.
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During the last decade of the 20th and at the beginning of the 21st century there was a need for a higher level of understanding of the climate system and development of opportunities to prevent climate change and, first of all, understanding of dangerous natural hydrometeorological phenomena. The research of the latter is based on contemporary ideas of the theory of climate whose main concepts found their further development in the study of changes and fluctuations of the today's climate. For its climatic characteristics the South of Ukraine is considered as a separate region. This is due to not only the influence of the Black Sea but also to the specific features of the atmospheric circulation. Precipitation is one of the most important characteristics of humidification and appears to be the most variable meteorological value both in space and time. According to the results of modern studies the amount of precipitation within the territory of Ukraine and its individual regions was changing at the end of the 20th century and this change is still observed at the beginning of the 21st century. Therefore, the purpose of this scientific study is to determine the peculiarities of the spatio-temporal distribution of atmospheric precipitation in the territory of the Odesa Region over the recent decades. To complete this task we used statistical methods of processing the output information which included time data for 00, 06, 12 and 18 hours.
Based on peculiarities of the structure of the long-term course of atmospheric precipitation in the territory of the Odesa region the following five regions were defined: southern, northwest, northern, eastern and coastal. Using the integral Fourier transform we managed to determine probable periodic oscillations (quasi-two-month, quasi-three-month, half-year and quasi-ten-month ones).
This article presents the main results of one of the sections of the research work "Forecasting of dangerous meteorological phenomena over the southern regions of Ukraine" which is performed at the Department of Meteorology and Climatology of the Odessa State Environmental University.
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Kulesza, Kinga. "Uwarunkowania cyrkulacyjne ilości całkowitego promieniowania słonecznego docierającego do powierzchni ziemi w Polsce w latach 1986–2015 = Atmospheric circulation determinants of the amount of global solar radiation reaching the land surface in Poland in the years 1986–2015." Przegląd Geograficzny 92, no. 3 (2020): 341–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.7163/przg.2020.3.2.
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Solar radiation is a key element of the Earth’s climate system and one of the most important variables in the energy balance of the active surface. The inflow of radiant energy to the Earth’s surface depends on the movement (circulation) of the atmosphere and on the associated changes in the amount of aerosols contained in the atmosphere as well as on cloudiness changes (which reduce the inflow of radiation to the Earth’s surface through reflection, dispersion and absorption processes). In that context, the work detailed in this paper had as its main aim a determination of the influence of atmospheric circulation on the amount of global solar radiation reaching the land surface in Poland. The research was based on source material from 1986–2015, originating from meteorological reanalyses and satellite products. Global solar radiation was analysed based on data from CM SAF satellite products, while atmospheric circulation types were designated with the use of modified version of the Lityński’s classification. Mean daily sums of radiation during individual circulation types, during A, 0, C macrotypes and on days with advection from particular directions were presented. Also the spatial distribution of radiation over the area of Poland during individual circulation types was shown. In the analyses special attention was paid to days with extremely large sums of solar radiation (above the 0.95 percentile). The largest daily sums of solar radiation are connected with anticyclonic circulation types, and the smallest ones – with cyclonic types. The largest mean daily sum of solar radiation occurs during south-western anticyclonic circulation, which is related to the significantly expanded Azores High. The smallest daily sums of solar radiation occur during cyclonic types, with advection of air masses from the north and east – in spring during NWC type, in autumn during EC type, in summer and winter during NEC type. The spatial distribution of solar radiation daily sums over the territory of Poland also depends on the circulation type. For most of the year, the circulation types with the northern and eastern components (N-NE-E) are associated with the reduction of the amount of solar radiation from north to south, while the inflow of air masses from the S-SW-W directions favours the reduction of radiation from south to north. Extremely large sums of solar radiation occur most probably during anticyclonic types with advection of air masses from SW, S and SE, and during the advectionless circulation 0A (conditional probability 0.13, 0.13, 0.11 and 0.10 respectively). The paper also demonstrates that the circulation type (i.e. prevailing pressure system) has a greater influence on daily sums of global solar radiation over Poland than the direction of air masses advection. The research results show that atmospheric circulation plays a significant role in determining the amount of solar radiation reaching the land surface in Poland.
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Duff, G. A., B. A. Myers, R. J. Williams, D. Eamus, A. O'Grady, and I. R. Fordyce. "Seasonal Patterns in Soil Moisture, Vapour Pressure Deficit, Tree Canopy Cover and Pre-dawn Water Potential in a Northern Australian Savanna." Australian Journal of Botany 45, no. 2 (1997): 211. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/bt96018.
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The wet–dry tropics of northern Australia are characterised by extreme seasonal variation in rainfall and atmospheric vapour pressure deficit, although temperatures are relatively constant throughout the year.This seasonal variation is associated with marked changes in tree canopy cover, although the exact determinants of these changes are complex. This paper reports variation in microclimate (temperature, vapour pressure deficit (VPD)), rainfall, soil moisture, understorey light environment (total daily irradiance), and pre-dawn leaf water potential of eight dominant tree species in an area of savanna near Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia. Patterns of canopy cover are strongly influenced by both soil moisture and VPD. Increases in canopy cover coincide with decreases in VPD, and occur prior to increases in soil moisture that occur with the onset of wet season rains. Decreases in canopy cover coincide with decreases in soil moisture following the cessation of wet season rains and associated increases in VPD. Patterns of pre-dawn water potential vary significantly between species and between leaf phenological guilds. Pre-dawn water potential increases with decreasing VPD towards the end of the dry season prior to any increases in soil moisture. Decline in pre-dawn water potential coincides with both decreasing soil moisture and increasing VPD at the end of the dry season. This study emphasises the importance of the annual transition between the dry season and the wet season, a period of 1–2 months of relatively low VPD but little or no effective rainfall, preceded by a 4–6 month dry season of no rainfall and high VPD. This period is accompanied by markedly increased canopy cover, and significant increases in pre-dawn water potential, which are demonstrably independent of rainfall. This finding emphasises the importance of VPD as a determinant of physiological and phenological processes in Australian savannas.
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Frolov, D. "Considerable Arctic Sea ice loss as a factor of cold weather and heavy snowfalls in Eurasia." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1023, no. 1 (May 1, 2022): 012006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1023/1/012006.
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Abstract There goes climate warming on the Earth. An especially tremendous warming goes in the Arctic. This causes shrinking of the sea ice extent in the Arctic. Considerable Arctic Sea ice loss can lead to some extra evaporation of water vapor from the sea surface and saturation of the atmosphere with water vapor. Due to atmospheric circulation, extreme temperature anomalies and heavy snowfalls can appear in the following winter season in the lower latitudes, according to a number of studies. Some warm winters in Eurasia and America are associated with a situation in the Arctic where an extremely stable area of low pressure in the vicinity of the North Pole was present during a long time period and did not let cold air masses to move away from its borders. As a consequence, in most of the territory of Russia, USA, Northern Europe, and Eastern Canada the temperature of the winter months was a few degrees more than the usual one, for example in 2019/2020 winter months. The resulting destruction of the North Pole vortex and coming of cold air masses to Eurasia and America lead to a cold snowy winter.
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Malneva, Irina, Nina Kononova, and Muhtar Hadzhiev. "THE ROLE OF TECHNOGENIC IMPACT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS GEOLOGICAL PROCESSES IN THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN CAUCASUS." LIFE OF THE EARTH 43, no. 4 (October 27, 2021): 437–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.29003/m2508.0514-7468.2020_43_4/437-450.
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The article presents an assessment of technogenic impact on the development of hazardous geological processes in the mountainous regions of the Northern Caucasus in the current century. Technogenic impact is determined by the stability of rock formations that make up the Krasnodar Territory, Kabardino-Balkaria, and North Ossetia relative to the impacts of other forces. It is also noted that the activity of hazardous geological processes is largely determined by the interaction of climatic conditions, which determine their speed, and technogenesis. Examples of problematic territories of the North Caucasus are given. To assess climatic changes and major catastrophes, a typology of atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere was developed under the leadership of B.L. Dzerdzeevsky. Typification materials from the period between 1899 and 2018 are posted in the public domain, at www.atmospheric-circulation.ru. The largest catastrophes, in which landslides and mudflows became more active, and the interaction of natural and man-made factors in these disasters are considered.Hazardous geological processes can disrupt the sustainable development of individual regions with their negative impact on the environment. The assessment of their danger is therefore of special current relevance. The article considers the possibility of predicting catastrophes associated with these processes. Long-term forecasts of landslides, mudflows and other processes continue to be important. The methodology of such forecasting was previously developed in sufficient detail. The greatest importance is assigned to operational forecasts that will make it possible to warn of possible danger hours or even days ahead.
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Semerhei-Chumachenko, A. B., and K. L. Slobodianyk. "Spatial–temporal distribution of heavy precipitation over Ukraine during 1979-2019 according to the ERA5 reanalysis." Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal, no. 26 (December 22, 2020): 50–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.26.2020.04.
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The paper presents the results of research of heavy and extreme precipitation in the form of rain (> 50 mm / 12 h) and snow (> 20 mm / 12 h) using the data from the atmospheric reanalysis ERA5 for the period of 1979-2019. According to the data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts obtained through the numerical modeling and resulting from the data assimilation at the nodes of a regular grid with a spatial resolution of 0,25°×0,25°, there are 131 and 136 days with rain and snow during which precipitation intensity reached the criteria of meteorological phenomena of the 2nd and 3rd levels of danger. It was discovered that the last 40 years in Ukraine proved to have a tendency of an increased number of cases of heavy snowfall, and a slightly decreased number of heavy rains.
The research pays considerable attention to the spatial-temporal analysis of the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall with consideration of geographical factors. It determines the seasonal course of heavy and extreme precipitation, the maximum and minimum values of which did not differ from the climatic standard values observed during meteorological observations. Rainfalls with precipitation rates of more than 50 mm over 12 hours were observed almost over the entire territory of Ukraine and the maximum frequency zones were detected over the Carpathian Mountains, Donetsk Ridge, Podolsk Upland, and the south-western part of the country. Heavy snowfalls with more than 20 mm precipitation over 12 hours mostly occurred in the Carpathian region. The analysis of the geographical distribution revealed a center with maximum values of rain intensity (120-133 mm over 12 h) off the coast of the Sea of Azov, and the heaviest snowfalls (34-38 mm over 12 h) mainly formed in the Carpathian region.
The paper established the types of elementary circulation mechanisms of Dzerdzeevsky’s synoptic classification of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. These types, when continuous in nature, resulted in a significantly increased precipitation in the form of rain and snow.
According to the reanalysis data, cases with the maximum rain intensity were found over the period of 23 to 27 July 2008 when a catastrophic flood was observed in the Ukrainian Carpathians. This fact indicates that the structure of the field of heavy precipitation over the territory of Ukraine was adequately reproduced by the respective model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
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Vido, Jaroslav, and Paulína Nalevanková. "Drought in the Upper Hron Region (Slovakia) between the Years 1984–2014." Water 12, no. 10 (October 16, 2020): 2887. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12102887.
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Climate change causes an increase in the frequency and severity of weather extremes. One of the most relevant severe and damaging phenomena in Europe is drought. However, a difference in the spatial frequency of the occurrence and drought trends is evident between southern and northern Europe. Central Europe and particularly the West Carpathian region form a transitional zone, and drought patterns are complicated because of the geomorphologically complicated landscape. Since almost half of the Slovak state territory is represented by such natural landscape, it is necessary to investigate regional drought specifics. Therefore, we decided to analyze drought occurrence and trends using the SPI (Standardised Precipitation Index) and the SPEI (Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) at available climatological stations of the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMI) in the upper Hron region within the 1984–2014 period. We found that (1) drought incidence decreased with increasing altitude, (2) increasing air temperature increased the difference in drought trends between lowlands and mountains during the studied period, and (3) abrupt changes in time series of drought indices, that could indicate some signals of changing atmospheric circulation patterns, were not revealed. Finally, we constructed a simplified map of drought risk as an explanation resource for local decision-makers.
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Monastirskiy, M. V., and Yu V. Demina. "Impact of climate change on incidence of West Nile Fever and West Nile virus areas expansion in Russian Federation." Medical alphabet, no. 14 (July 27, 2022): 45–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.33667/2078-5631-2022-18-45-49.
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Comparison of atmospheric air temperatures and abundance of precipitation with the incidence of West Nile virus (WNV) in Russia showed a direct correlation between them: the more precipitation and the higher spring-summer air temperatures, the higher the risk of WNV infection among the population. The ongoing changes of climatic conditions towards warming predetermine high probability of further WNV circulation in the environment and emergence of infection cases. According to the data obtained from the Reference Centre for monitoring over WNV pathogen, WNV markers were detected in the territory of 61 constituent entities of the Russian Federation throughout the period of observation in 1999–2020 which testified to the existence of potential risk of human exposure during epidemic season in most of the parts of country. According to Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring forecast, climatic conditions in Russia will stick to global warming trend which will contribute to further spread of WNV onto the northern areas. The analysis of methodological issues relevant to this subject as arguments, in the future, may allow the development of a model (formula) that provides long-term forecasts of how and where the factors together contribute to the occurrence of periods of high incidence of West Nile fever in the population.
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Wake, Cameron P., Kaplan Yalcin, and Niels S. Gundestrup. "The climate signal recorded in the oxygen-isotope, accumulation and major-ion time series from the Eclipse ice core, YukonTerritory, Canada." Annals of Glaciology 35 (2002): 416–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/172756402781817266.
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AbstractThe high accumulation rate, nearly complete preservation and detailed chronology of the Eclipse ice core, Yukon Territory, Canada, are well suited for comparison of the glaciochemical recordwith instrumental time series of temperature, precipitation and sea-level pressure. Results of cross-correlation analysis of instrumental temperature records with the Eclipse δ18O time series reveal a significant positive relationship between summertime δ18O at Eclipse and summer (April–September) temperatures in northwestern North America. the results indicate that the Eclipse δ18O time series provides a better proxy for regional temperature than does the δ18O time series from the Mount Logan ice-core record for which only negative correlations were found. Winter accumulation at Eclipse is significantly correlated with several sites in Alaska, but not with any sites in the Yukon. the δ18O, accumulation and glaciochemical time series also display significant correlations with the Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure dataset, especially between wintertime sulfate and nitrate concentrations at Eclipse and the intensity of the wintertime Siberian high and Aleutian and Icelandic lows. These results suggest that year-to-year variability in the deposition of pollutants at Eclipse can be linked to changes in atmospheric circulation, while long-term trends can be explained by changes in source strength.
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Kitaev, Lev M., Irina S. Danilovich, Elena M. Akent’eva, Grigory A. Tyusov, and Ivan V. Buyakov. "Regional variability of the mean and extreme characteristics of the present meteorological regime of the eastern part of the Baltic Sea catchment." Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology, no. 2 (December 15, 2022): 16–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.33581/2521-6740-2022-2-16-29.
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The features of the regional heterogeneity of the modern meteorological regime are assessed, as a refinement of existing estimates of large-scale climate changes – for the eastern part of the Baltic Sea catchment on the example of the Leningrad Region and nearby territories of neighbouring subjects of the Russian Federation (northern part of the region), as well as the Zapadnaya Dvina catchment within the Republic of Belarus (southern part of the region). Significant differences in surface air temperature and snow water equivalent (hereinafter referred to as snow storage) were revealed for the winter period, with similar precipitation, more intense interannual and long-term changes in the southern part of the region. The common feature for the region is the presence of a significant correlation of the long-term January – March atmospheric circulation indices variability only with the variability of surface air temperature, as well as minor differences in the number of anomalous years with similar anomaly amplitudes. Surface air temperature has the greatest contribution to the long-term variability of snow storage everywhere, which is most pronounced in the south of the region. The turning points in the long-term variability of surface air temperature coincide in the north and south of the region, the turning points in the course of total precipitation do not coincide. The number of anomalies (exceeding the standard deviation) in the long-term series of characteristics in the northern and southern parts of the region differ little (9–12 cases in the positive and negative ranges of values) in the absence of coincidences and the similarity of the amplitude of the anomalies. The range of values of extreme threshold values (extreme percentiles) of surface air temperature in the north of the region is lower than the range of values in the south, the variability of small percentiles exceeds the variability of large ones; the rate of long-term increase in average temperatures is accompanied by a significant increase in small percentiles in the north and large percentiles in the south of the region. The values of extreme threshold values of precipitation and their standard deviation vary little across the territory; positive trends in maximums and negative trends in minimum thresholds are small, consistent with a slight increase in mean total precipitation. According to the spatial distribution of average values of snow storage, the values of their extremely small and large threshold values in the north of the region are higher than in the south; in the north of the region, the values of percentiles in the interval 1985–2002 stand out as the lowest.
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"Projected distribution of the warm season droughts over the territory of Ukraine in 2021-2050." Visnyk of V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, series Geology. Geography. Ecology, no. 53 (2020). http://dx.doi.org/10.26565/2410-7360-2020-53-13.
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Introduction. Drought is a natural phenomenon that occurs in all climates, and is one of the most relevant natural hazards, which propagates through the full hydrological cycle and affects large areas, often with long-term economic and environmental impacts. A prolonged deficit in precipitation over a defined region cause a meteorological drought, while the other types of drought describe secondary effects on specific ecological and economic compartments. Recent trends in the drought distribution and intensity shows that Europe splits into two big areas, in which the southern and western regions have positive trends of drought frequency, duration, and severity, and the northern and eastern regions show a decrease in this parameters. Regarding the long events, territory of Ukraine belongs to the areas in which a prominent decrease in drought frequency, duration and severity are fixed. But positive trends in the drought characteristics are observed on the Black Sea coast, also in the Carpathian region, many droughts occurred in the past three decades. The purpose of this study to examine the results of analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of warm season droughts (April-October) across the administrative areas of Ukraine in 2021-2050 under the climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 with them comparing. Data and methods. Drought estimation was performed using the SPEI index (the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration index). The inclusion of temperature through the potential evapotranspiration (PET) along with precipitation data allows SPEI to account for the impact of temperature regime on a drought situation. A drought episode for given time scale is defined as a period, in which SPEI is continuously negative and reaches a value of –1.0 or less. In this study, the gridded fields of monthly air temperature and precipitation intensity from multimodel sets of global CMP5 models are taken for calculations of SPEI. Data access was made through the Climate Explorer. All data were averaged over the area of each of 25 administrative regions of Ukraine. Research results. Analysis of the time series of the calculated SPEI index for both scenarios showed that in all regions of Ukraine there will be a tendency to transition from moderately wet conditions in 2021-2035 to droughty conditions in 2037-2050. In the first half of the study period drought is expected near 2024, as well as in 2030-2033 almost in all provinces except southern areas. In the second half of the period prolonged seasonal drought is projected in 2044-2047 over all Ukraine and in some areas drought may reach an extreme intensity. Decade analysis of the SPEI7 time series showed that in both scenarios in all regions of Ukraine, the least number of dry seasons is expected from 2021 to 2030. The highest number of dry seasons in this period may reach up to 4-5 cases per 10 years in the western regions under RCP6.0 scenario. In other regions the number of dry warm seasons will be 2-3 cases per 10 years. In the period from 2031 to 2040, the number of dry seasons will increase substantially in all regions of Ukraine under RCP4.5 scenario, in which their number will be 5-6 cases per 10 years. Under RCP6.0 scenario, an increase in the number of droughts will be observed in all areas except the western regions, where will be from 2 to 4 dry seasons per 10 years. In the last decade from 2041 to 2050, in both scenarios, the number of dry seasons will increase throughout Ukraine compared to the previous decade. Under RCP6.0 scenario, the greatest increase is projected in the north of the country and in some other regions throughout Ukraine, where the maximum number of seasons with droughts will reached up 8-10 cases per 10 years. Conclusions. Comparison of the SPEI7 time series for both scenarios showed that under RCP6.0 scenario the transition from wet conditions to dry conditions is projected during long period from 2030 to the early 2040s. In this time, small interannual variations of the SPEI index across all regions are expected, and only in the last decade the dry seasons will prevail. In addition, in the RCP6.0 scenario, maxima of drought frequency are expected in few different regions of the country, compared with the RCP4.5 scenario, which indicates significant scenarios' differences in the predicted state of the regional atmospheric circulation determined the temperature and precipitation regimes in the future.
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Khlyap, Lyudmila, Vladimir Dinets, Andrey Warshavsky, Fedor Osipov, Natalia Dergunova, and Varos Petrosyan. "Aggregated occurrence records of the invasive alien striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius Pall.) in the former USSR." Biodiversity Data Journal 9 (June 22, 2021). http://dx.doi.org/10.3897/bdj.9.e69159.
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Open access to occurrence records of the most dangerous invasive species in a standardised format have important potential applications for ecological research and management, including the assessment of invasion risks, formulation of preventative and management plans in the context of global climate and land use changes in the short and long perspective. The striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius Pallas, 1771) is a common species in the temperate latitudes of the Palaearctic. Due to land use and global climate changes, several waves of expansion of the range of this species have been observed or inferred. By intrusion into new regions, the striped field mouse has become an alien species there. Apodemus agrarius causes significant harm to agriculture and is one of the most important pests of grain crops. In tree nurseries, A. agrarius destroys seeds of valuable tree species and gnaws at the bark of saplings of broadleaf species and berry bushes. It is one of the most epidemiologically important rodents, involved in the circulation of the causative agents of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and many other zoonotic infections. The foregoing allows us to classify the striped field mouse as a dangerous invasive alien species in the expanding part of the range. A lot of data accumulated for this species are of interest from both ecological and applied points of view. The accumulation and aggregation of data on the occurrence records of A. agrarius is relevant for the study of ecology, biogeography and construction of the spatial distribution and ecological niche models in the context of global climate change. We have created a dataset of 1603 occurrence records of this species, collected from 1936 to December 2020 by various zoologists, previously published or original. These records relate to a significant part of the striped field mouse’s range in Russia (1264 records) and neighbouring countries (339 records). The dataset shows the position of the northern and central parts of A. agrarius range, the disjunction of the range in Transbaikalia and isolated populations in the north of the range. The data were obtained in different formats from literature, indicating different degrees of accuracy of geographic coordinates and with several variations of the species' name. In the process of aggregating and fixing errors, we created a set of georeferenced occurrence records, adopted a controlled vocabulary, removed duplicates and standardised the format of records using unified data structure. We examined the dataset for inconsistencies with the taxonomic position of A. agrarius and removed the incorrect records. This paper presents the resulting dataset of A. agrarius occurrence records in the territory of Russia and neighbouring countries in a standardised format. This is a validated and comprehensive dataset of occurrence records of A. agrarius, including both our own observations and records from literature. This dataset is available for extension by other researchers using a standard format in accordance with Darwin Core standards. In different countries, there are a lot of occurrence records for the striped field mouse, but the overwhelming part of them is presented in separate literary sources, stored in the form of maps and in zoological collections. Prior to this project, such information was not available to a wide range of researchers and did not allow the use of these spatial data for further processing by modern methods of analysis, based on geographic information systems (GIS technologies). The created dataset combines species occurrence records of many Soviet zoologists who studied the distribution of the striped field mouse over a significant part of its recent range, in Russia and neighbouring countries (within the former USSR). The final set of records was created by combining the species occurrence records using a uniform data structure, checking geographic coordinates and removing duplicate and erroneous records. The dataset expands the available information on the spatial and temporal distribution of the dangerous invasive species in Russia and neighbouring countries of the former USSR (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan).