Journal articles on the topic 'Atmospheric circulation Africa Mathematical models'
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1
Su, Zhen, Henning Meyerhenke, and Jürgen Kurths. "The climatic interdependence of extreme-rainfall events around the globe." Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 32, no. 4 (April 2022): 043126. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0077106.
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The identification of regions of similar climatological behavior can be utilized for the discovery of spatial relationships over long-range scales, including teleconnections. Additionally, it provides insights for the improvement of corresponding interaction processes in general circulation models. In this regard, the global picture of the interdependence patterns of extreme-rainfall events (EREs) still needs to be further explored. To this end, we propose a top-down complex-network-based clustering workflow, with the combination of consensus clustering and mutual correspondences. Consensus clustering provides a reliable community structure under each dataset, while mutual correspondences build a matching relationship between different community structures obtained from different datasets. This approach ensures the robustness of the identified structures when multiple datasets are available. By applying it simultaneously to two satellite-derived precipitation datasets, we identify consistent synchronized structures of EREs around the globe, during boreal summer. Two of them show independent spatiotemporal characteristics, uncovering the primary compositions of different monsoon systems. They explicitly manifest the primary intraseasonal variability in the context of the global monsoon, in particular, the “monsoon jump” over both East Asia and West Africa and the mid-summer drought over Central America and southern Mexico. Through a case study related to the Asian summer monsoon, we verify that the intraseasonal changes of upper-level atmospheric conditions are preserved by significant connections within the global synchronization structure. Our work advances network-based clustering methodology for (i) decoding the spatiotemporal configuration of interdependence patterns of natural variability and for (ii) the intercomparison of these patterns, especially regarding their spatial distributions over different datasets.
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Betts, Richard A., Lorenzo Alfieri, Catherine Bradshaw, John Caesar, Luc Feyen, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laila Gohar, et al. "Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 376, no. 2119 (April 2, 2018): 20160452. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0452.
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We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.
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Lyon, Bradfield, and Simon J. Mason. "The 1997/98 Summer Rainfall Season in Southern Africa. Part II: Model Simulations and Coupled Model Forecasts." Journal of Climate 22, no. 13 (July 1, 2009): 3802–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2600.1.
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Abstract This is the second of a two-part investigation of rainfall in southern Africa during the strong El Niño of 1997/98. In Part I it was shown that widespread drought in southern Africa, typical of past El Niño events occurring between 1950 and 2000, generally failed to materialize during the 1997/98 El Niño, most notably during January–March (JFM) 1998. Here output from three atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and seasonal forecasts from three coupled models are examined to see to what extent conditions in JFM 1998 could have potentially been anticipated. All three AGCMs generated widespread drought conditions across southern Africa, similar to those during past El Niño events, and did a generally poor job in generating the observed rainfall and atmospheric circulation anomaly patterns, particularly over the eastern and southern Indian Ocean. In contrast, two of the three coupled models showed a higher probability of wetter conditions in JFM 1998 than for past El Niño events, with an enhanced moisture flux from the Indian Ocean, as was observed. However, neither the AGCMs nor the coupled models generated anomalous stationary wave patterns consistent with observations over the South Atlantic and Pacific. The failure of any of the models to reproduce an enhanced Angola low (favoring rainfall) associated with an anomalous wave train in this region suggests that the coupled models that did indicate wetter conditions in JFM 1998 compared to previous El Niño episodes may have done so, at least partially, for the wrong reasons. The general inability of the climate models used in this study to generate key features of the seasonal climate over southern Africa in JFM 1998 suggests that internal atmospheric variability contributed to the observed rainfall and circulation patterns that year. With the caveat that current climate models may not properly respond to SST boundary forcing important to simulating southern Africa climate, this study finds that the JFM 1998 rainfall in southern Africa may have been largely unpredictable on seasonal time scales.
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Engelbrecht, F. A. "Perspektief vir genestelde klimaatmodellering oor suidelike Afrika." Suid-Afrikaanse Tydskrif vir Natuurwetenskap en Tegnologie 19, no. 2 (July 15, 2000): 47–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/satnt.v19i2.744.
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The climate of southern Africa is fundamentally affected by mesoscale circulation patterns that are not adequately simulated by global atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The technique of nested climate modelling (NCM) utilises high-resolution limited area models (LAMs) to obtain climate simulations of the mesoscale from essentially synoptical scale AGCM results.
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Munday, C., and R. Washington. "Systematic Climate Model Rainfall Biases over Southern Africa: Links to Moisture Circulation and Topography." Journal of Climate 31, no. 18 (September 2018): 7533–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0008.1.
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An important challenge for climate science is to understand the regional circulation and rainfall response to global warming. Unfortunately, the climate models used to project future changes struggle to represent present-day rainfall and circulation, especially at a regional scale. This is the case in southern Africa, where models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) overestimate summer rainfall by as much as 300% compared to observations and tend to underestimate rainfall in Madagascar and the southwest Indian Ocean. In this paper, we explore the climate processes associated with the rainfall bias, with the aim of assessing the reliability of the CMIP5 ensemble and highlighting important areas for model development. We find that the high precipitation rates in models that are wet over southern Africa are associated with an anomalous northeasterly moisture transport (~10–30 g kg−1 s−1) that penetrates across the high topography of Tanzania and Malawi and into subtropical southern Africa. This transport occurs in preference to a southeasterly recurvature toward Madagascar that is seen in drier models and reanalysis data. We demonstrate that topographically related model biases in low-level flow are important for explaining the intermodel spread in rainfall; wetter models have a reduced tendency to block the oncoming northeasterly flow compared to dry models. The differences in low-level flow among models are related to upstream wind speed and model representation of topography, both of which should be foci for model development.
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Shongwe, Mxolisi E., Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Bart van den Hurk, and Maarten van Aalst. "Projected Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation in Africa under Global Warming. Part II: East Africa." Journal of Climate 24, no. 14 (July 15, 2011): 3718–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli2883.1.
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Abstract Probable changes in mean and extreme precipitation in East Africa are estimated from general circulation models (GCMs) prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Bayesian statistics are used to derive the relative weights assigned to each member in the multimodel ensemble. There is substantial evidence in support of a positive shift of the whole rainfall distribution in East Africa during the wet seasons. The models give indications for an increase in mean precipitation rates and intensity of high rainfall events but for less severe droughts. Upward precipitation trends are projected from early this (twenty first) century. As in the observations, a statistically significant link between sea surface temperature gradients in the tropical Indian Ocean and short rains (October–December) in East Africa is simulated in the GCMs. Furthermore, most models project a differential warming of the Indian Ocean during boreal autumn. This is favorable for an increase in the probability of positive Indian Ocean zonal mode events, which have been associated with anomalously strong short rains in East Africa. On top of the general increase in rainfall in the tropics due to thermodynamic effects, a change in the structure of the Eastern Hemisphere Walker circulation is consistent with an increase in East Africa precipitation relative to other regions within the same latitudinal belt. A notable feature of this change is a weakening of the climatological subsidence over eastern Kenya. East Africa is shown to be a region in which a coherent projection of future precipitation change can be made, supported by physical arguments. Although the rate of change is still uncertain, almost all results point to a wetter climate with more intense wet seasons and less severe droughts.
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Assamnew, Abera Debebe, and Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu. "The performance of regional climate models driven by various general circulation models in reproducing observed rainfall over East Africa." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 142, no. 3-4 (September 7, 2020): 1169–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03357-3.
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Allan, Richard P., Margaret J. Woodage, Sean F. Milton, Malcolm E. Brooks, and James M. Haywood. "Examination of long-wave radiative bias in general circulation models over North Africa during May-July." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 137, no. 658 (December 7, 2010): 1179–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.717.
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Lyon, Bradfield, and Simon J. Mason. "The 1997–98 Summer Rainfall Season in Southern Africa. Part I: Observations." Journal of Climate 20, no. 20 (October 15, 2007): 5134–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli4225.1.
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Abstract Following the onset of the strong El Niño of 1997–98 historical rainfall teleconnection patterns and dynamical model predictions both suggested an enhanced likelihood of drought for southern Africa, but widespread dry conditions failed to materialize. Results from a diagnostic study of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data are reported here demonstrating how the large- and regional-scale atmospheric circulations during the 1997–98 El Niño differed from previous events. Emphasis is placed on the January–March 1998 season and comparisons with the strong 1982–83 El Niño, although composites of eight events occurring between 1950 and 2000 are also considered. In a companion paper, simulation runs from three atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), and forecasts from three fully coupled models are employed to investigate the extent to which the anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns during the 1997–98 El Niño may have been anticipated. Observational results indicate that the 1997–98 El Niño displayed significant differences from both the 1982–83 episode and the composite event. An unusually strong Angola low, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the western Indian and eastern tropical South Atlantic Oceans, and an enhanced northerly moisture flux from the continental interior and the western tropical Indian Ocean all appear to have contributed to more seasonal rainfall in 1997–98 over much of the southern Africa subcontinent than in past El Niño events.
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Kalognomou, Evangelia-Anna, Christopher Lennard, Mxolisi Shongwe, Izidine Pinto, Alice Favre, Michael Kent, Bruce Hewitson, et al. "A Diagnostic Evaluation of Precipitation in CORDEX Models over Southern Africa." Journal of Climate 26, no. 23 (December 2013): 9477–506. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00703.1.
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The authors evaluate the ability of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate precipitation over Southern Africa within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework. An ensemble of 10 regional climate simulations and the ensemble average is analyzed to evaluate the models' ability to reproduce seasonal and interannual regional climatic features over regions of the subcontinent. All the RCMs use a similar domain, have a spatial resolution of ~50 km, and are driven by the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim; 1989–2008). Results are compared against a number of observational datasets.In general, the spatial and temporal nature of rainfall over the region is captured by all RCMs, although individual models exhibit wet or dry biases over particular regions of the domain. Models generally produce lower seasonal variability of precipitation compared to observations and the magnitude of the variability varies in space and time. Model biases are related to model setup, simulated circulation anomalies, and moisture transport. The multimodel ensemble mean generally outperforms individual models, with bias magnitudes similar to differences across the observational datasets. In the northern parts of the domain, some of the RCMs and the ensemble average improve the precipitation climate compared to that of ERA-Interim. The models are generally able to capture the dry (wet) precipitation anomaly associated with El Niño (La Niña) events across the region. Based on this analysis, the authors suggest that the present set of RCMs can be used to provide useful information on climate projections of rainfall over Southern Africa.
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Quagraine, Kwesi A., Bruce Hewitson, Christopher Jack, Piotr Wolski, Izidine Pinto, and Christopher Lennard. "Using Co-Behavior Analysis to Interrogate the Performance of CMIP5 GCMs over Southern Africa." Journal of Climate 33, no. 7 (April 1, 2020): 2891–905. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0472.1.
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AbstractAs established in earlier research, analysis of the combined roles (co-behavior) of multiple climate processes provides useful insights into the drivers of regional climate variability, especially for regions with no singular large-scale circulation control. Here, we extend the previous study in order to examine the performance of eight models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in representing co-behavior influence on surface expressions over southern Africa. We find that although models broadly simulate observed precipitation responses over southern Africa, they fail to produce statistically strong response signals for an important drought pattern (El Niño co-behaving with positive Antarctic Oscillation during summer) for the region. We also demonstrate that the models show statistically strong temperature response signals to co-behavior that agree well with observed responses over the region. The multimodel ensemble mean although consistent with observations shows a larger spread. By elucidating the performance of models in representing observed co-behavior of climate processes, we are able to evaluate models while establishing important information for understanding of climate variability.
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Rognon, Pierre, and Geneviève Coudé-Gaussen. "Paleoclimates Off Northwest Africa (28°–35°N) about 18,000 yr B.P. Based on Continental Eolian Deposits." Quaternary Research 46, no. 2 (September 1996): 118–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/qres.1996.0052.
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Most conceptual models of atmospheric circulation deduced from bottom sediments or isopollen maps off NW Africa assume the occurrence of intensified NNE trade winds about 18,000 yr B.P. in latitudes of 28°–35°N, and oversimplify the glacial atmospheric circulation over Africa. An alternative method for reconstructing paleowinds of the last glacial maximum in these latitudes was recently put forward, and uses sedimentological records from the Canary Islands and coastal regions of Morocco. The continental data do not agree with the previous models and show the prevalence of westerlies. All the data from deep sea cores (reduction of sea surface temperature, increase of biogenic opal accumulation, distribution patterns of pollen or dinoflagellate cysts, and xeric conditions on the adjacent continent) can be explained without increased activity of the trade winds, but with a discharge current of cold meltwater from the European and North American ice sheets. The model is backed up by a comparison with the present-day Humboldt Current off subtropical South America.
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James, Rachel, Neil C. G. Hart, Callum Munday, Chris J. C. Reason, and Richard Washington. "Coupled Climate Model Simulation of Tropical–Extratropical Cloud Bands over Southern Africa." Journal of Climate 33, no. 19 (October 1, 2020): 8579–602. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0731.1.
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AbstractThere are increasing efforts to use climate model output for adaptation planning, but meanwhile there is often limited understanding of how models represent regional climate. Here we analyze the simulation in global coupled climate models of a key rainfall-generating mechanism over southern Africa: tropical temperate troughs (TTTs). An image-processing algorithm is applied to outgoing longwave radiation data from satellites and models to create TTT event sets. All models investigated produce TTTs with similar circulation features to observed. However, there are large differences among models in the number, intensity, and preferred longitude of events. Five groups of models are identified. The first group generates too few TTTs, and relatively dry conditions over southern Africa compared to other models. A second group generates more TTTs and wet biases. The contrast between these two groups suggests that the number of TTTs could explain intermodel variations in climatological rainfall. However, there is a third group of models that simulate up to 92% more TTTs than observed, but do not have large rainfall biases, as each TTT event is relatively weak. Finally, there are a further two groups that concentrate TTTs over the subcontinent or the ocean, respectively. These distinctions between models are associated with the amount of convective activity in the Congo Basin, the magnitude of moisture fluxes into southern Africa, and the degree of zonal asymmetry in upper-level westerly flow. Model development focused on tropical convection and the representation of orography is needed for improved simulation of TTTs, and therefore southern African rainfall.
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Senior, Catherine A., John H. Marsham, Ségolène Berthou, Laura E. Burgin, Sonja S. Folwell, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Cornelia M. Klein, et al. "Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Change Simulations for Understanding Future Climate and Informing Decision-Making in Africa." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 102, no. 6 (June 2021): E1206—E1223. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-20-0020.1.
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AbstractPan-Africa convection-permitting regional climate model simulations have been performed to study the impact of high resolution and the explicit representation of atmospheric moist convection on the present and future climate of Africa. These unique simulations have allowed European and African climate scientists to understand the critical role that the representation of convection plays in the ability of a contemporary climate model to capture climate and climate change, including many impact-relevant aspects such as rainfall variability and extremes. There are significant improvements in not only the small-scale characteristics of rainfall such as its intensity and diurnal cycle, but also in the large-scale circulation. Similarly, effects of explicit convection affect not only projected changes in rainfall extremes, dry spells, and high winds, but also continental-scale circulation and regional rainfall accumulations. The physics underlying such differences are in many cases expected to be relevant to all models that use parameterized convection. In some cases physical understanding of small-scale change means that we can provide regional decision-makers with new scales of information across a range of sectors. We demonstrate the potential value of these simulations both as scientific tools to increase climate process understanding and, when used with other models, for direct user applications. We describe how these ground-breaking simulations have been achieved under the U.K. Government’s Future Climate for Africa Programme. We anticipate a growing number of such simulations, which we advocate should become a routine component of climate projection, and encourage international coordination of such computationally and human-resource expensive simulations as effectively as possible.
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McCrary, Rachel R., David A. Randall, and Cristiana Stan. "Simulations of the West African Monsoon with a Superparameterized Climate Model. Part II: African Easterly Waves." Journal of Climate 27, no. 22 (November 4, 2014): 8323–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00677.1.
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Abstract The relationship between African easterly waves and convection is examined in two coupled general circulation models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the “superparameterized” CCSM (SP-CCSM). In the CCSM, the easterly waves are much weaker than observed. In the SP-CCSM, a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model replaces the conventional cloud parameterizations of CCSM. Results show that this allows for the simulation of easterly waves with realistic horizontal and vertical structures, although the model exaggerates the intensity of easterly wave activity over West Africa. The simulated waves of SP-CCSM are generated in East Africa and propagate westward at similar (although slightly slower) phase speeds to observations. The vertical structure of the waves resembles the first baroclinic mode. The coupling of the waves with convection is realistic. Evidence is provided herein that the diabatic heating associated with deep convection provides energy to the waves simulated in SP-CCSM. In contrast, horizontal and vertical structures of the weak waves in CCSM are unrealistic, and the simulated convection is decoupled from the circulation.
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Berg, Alexis, Benjamin Lintner, Kirsten Findell, and Alessandra Giannini. "Soil Moisture Influence on Seasonality and Large-Scale Circulation in Simulations of the West African Monsoon." Journal of Climate 30, no. 7 (April 2017): 2295–317. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0877.1.
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Prior studies have highlighted West Africa as a regional hotspot of land–atmosphere coupling. This study focuses on the large-scale influence of soil moisture variability on the mean circulation and precipitation in the West African monsoon. A suite of six models from the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 is analyzed. In this experiment, model integrations were performed with soil moisture prescribed to a specified climatological seasonal cycle throughout the simulation, which severs the two-way coupling between soil moisture and the atmosphere. Comparison with the control (interactive soil moisture) simulations indicates that mean June–September monsoon precipitation is enhanced when soil moisture is prescribed. However, contrasting behavior is evident over the seasonal cycle of the monsoon, with core monsoon precipitation enhanced with prescribed soil moisture but early-season precipitation reduced, at least in some models. These impacts stem from the enhancement of evapotranspiration at the dry poleward edge of the monsoon throughout the monsoon season, when soil moisture interactivity is suppressed. The early-season decrease in rainfall with prescribed soil moisture is associated with a delayed poleward advancement of the monsoon, which reflects the relative cooling of the continent from enhanced evapotranspiration, and thus a reduced land–ocean thermal contrast, prior to monsoon onset. On the other hand, during the core/late monsoon season, surface evaporative cooling modifies meridional temperature gradients and, through these gradients, alters the large-scale circulation: the midlevel African easterly jet is displaced poleward while the low-level westerlies are enhanced; this enhances precipitation. These results highlight the remote impacts of soil moisture variability on atmospheric circulation and precipitation in West Africa.
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Horenko, Illia. "On Robust Estimation of Low-Frequency Variability Trends in Discrete Markovian Sequences of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 66, no. 7 (July 1, 2009): 2059–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jas2959.1.
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Abstract Identification and analysis of temporal trends and low-frequency variability in discrete time series is an important practical topic in the understanding and prediction of many atmospheric processes, for example, in analysis of climate change. Widely used numerical techniques of trend identification (like local Gaussian kernel smoothing) impose some strong mathematical assumptions on the analyzed data and are not robust to model sensitivity. The latter issue becomes crucial when analyzing historical observation data with a short record. Two global robust numerical methods for the trend estimation in discrete nonstationary Markovian data based on different sets of implicit mathematical assumptions are introduced and compared here. The methods are first compared on a simple model example; then the importance of mathematical assumptions on the data is explained and numerical problems of local Gaussian kernel smoothing are demonstrated. Presented methods are applied to analysis of the historical sequence of atmospheric circulation patterns over the United Kingdom between 1946 and 2007. It is demonstrated that the influence of the seasonal pattern variability on transition processes is dominated by the long-term effects revealed by the introduced methods. Despite the differences in the mathematical assumptions implied by both presented methods, almost identical symmetrical changes of the cyclonic and anticyclonic pattern probabilities are identified in the analyzed data, with the confidence intervals being smaller than in the case of the local Gaussian kernel smoothing algorithm. Analysis results are investigated with respect to model sensitivity and compared to a standard analysis technique based on a local Gaussian kernel smoothing. Finally, the implications of the discussed strategies on long-range predictability of the data-fitted Markovian models are discussed.
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Nasri, Bouchra, Yves Tramblay, Salaheddine El Adlouni, Elke Hertig, and Taha B. M. J. Ouarda. "Atmospheric Predictors for Annual Maximum Precipitation in North Africa." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 55, no. 4 (April 2016): 1063–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-14-0122.1.
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AbstractThe high precipitation variability over North Africa presents a major challenge for the population and the infrastructure in the region. The last decades have seen many flood events caused by extreme precipitation in this area. There is a strong need to identify the most relevant atmospheric predictors to model these extreme events. In the present work, the effect of 14 different predictors calculated from NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, with daily to seasonal time steps, on the maximum annual precipitation (MAP) is evaluated at six coastal stations located in North Africa (Larache, Tangier, Melilla, Algiers, Tunis, and Gabès). The generalized extreme value (GEV) B-spline model was used to detect this influence. This model considers all continuous dependence forms (linear, quadratic, etc.) between the covariates and the variable of interest, thus providing a very flexible framework to evaluate the covariate effects on the GEV model parameters. Results show that no single set of covariates is valid for all stations. Overall, a strong dependence between the NCEP–NCAR predictors and MAP is detected, particularly with predictors describing large-scale circulation (geopotential height) or moisture (humidity). This study can therefore provide insights for developing extreme precipitation downscaling models that are tailored for North African conditions.
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Srinivasan, J. "Diagnostic study of errors in the simulation of tropical continental precipitation in general circulation models." Annales Geophysicae 21, no. 5 (May 31, 2003): 1197–207. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/angeo-21-1197-2003.
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Abstract. A simple diagnostic model has been used to identify the parameters that induce large errors in the simulation of tropical precipitation in atmospheric General Circulation models (GCM). The GCM that have been considered are those developed by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA). These models participated in the phase II of the Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP II) and simulated the climate for the period 1979 to 1995. The root mean-square error in the simulation of precipitation in tropical continents was larger in NCEP and NCAR simulations than in the JMA simulation. The large error in the simulation of precipitation in NCEP was due to errors in the vertical profile of water vapour. The large error in precipitation in NCAR in North Africa was due to an error in net radiation (at the top of the atmosphere). The simple diagnostic model predicts that the moisture converge is a nonlinear function of integrated water vapour. The large error in the interannual variance of rainfall in NCEP over India has been shown to be due to this nonlinearity.Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (precipitation; tropical meteorology; convective processes)
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Satti, Saleh, Benjamin F. Zaitchik, Hamada S. Badr, and Tsegaye Tadesse. "Enhancing Dynamical Seasonal Predictions through Objective Regionalization." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 56, no. 5 (May 2017): 1431–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-16-0192.1.
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AbstractImproving seasonal forecasts in East Africa has great implications for food security and water resources planning in the region. Dynamically based seasonal forecast systems have much to contribute to this effort, as they have demonstrated ability to represent and, to some extent, predict large-scale atmospheric dynamics that drive interannual rainfall variability in East Africa. However, these global models often exhibit spatial biases in their placement of rainfall and rainfall anomalies within the region, which limits their direct applicability to forecast-based decision-making. This paper introduces a method that uses objective climate regionalization to improve the utility of dynamically based forecast-system predictions for East Africa. By breaking up the study area into regions that are homogenous in interannual precipitation variability, it is shown that models sometimes capture drivers of variability but misplace precipitation anomalies. These errors are evident in the pattern of homogenous regions in forecast systems relative to observation, indicating that forecasts can more meaningfully be applied at the scale of the analogous homogeneous climate region than as a direct forecast of the local grid cell. This regionalization approach was tested during the July–September (JAS) rain months, and results show an improvement in the predictions from version 4.5 of the Max Plank Institute for Meteorology’s atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (ECHAM4.5) for applicable areas of East Africa for the two test cases presented.
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Tadross, M. A., B. C. Hewitson, and M. T. Usman. "The Interannual Variability of the Onset of the Maize Growing Season over South Africa and Zimbabwe." Journal of Climate 18, no. 16 (August 15, 2005): 3356–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3423.1.
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Abstract Subsistence farmers within southern Africa have identified the onset of the maize growing season as an important seasonal characteristic, advance knowledge of which would aid preparations for the planting of rain-fed maize. Onset over South Africa and Zimbabwe is calculated using rainfall data from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the Computing Center for Water Research (CCWR). The two datasets present similar estimates of the mean, standard deviation, and trend of onset for the common period (1979–97) over South Africa. During this period, onset has been tending to occur later in the season, in particular over the coastal regions and the Limpopo valley. However, the CCWR data (1950–97) indicate that this is part of long-term (decadal) variability. Characteristic rainfall patterns associated with late and early onset are estimated using a self-organizing map (SOM). Late onset is associated with heavier rainfall over the subcontinent. When onset is early over Zimbabwe, there is an increased frequency of more intense rainfall over northeast Madagascar during the preceding August. Accompanying these intense events is an increased frequency of positive 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies to the southeast of the continent. Similar positive height anomalies are also frequently present during early onset. The study indicates that onset variability is partly forced by synoptic conditions, and the successful use of general circulation models to estimate onset will depend on their simulation of the zonally asymmetric component of the westerly circulation.
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Yang, Wenchang, Richard Seager, Mark A. Cane, and Bradfield Lyon. "The Annual Cycle of East African Precipitation." Journal of Climate 28, no. 6 (March 13, 2015): 2385–404. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00484.1.
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Abstract East African precipitation is characterized by a dry annual mean climatology compared to other deep tropical land areas and a bimodal annual cycle with the major rainy season during March–May (MAM; often called the “long rains”) and the second during October–December (OND; often called the “short rains”). To explore these distinctive features, ERA-Interim data are used to analyze the associated annual cycles of atmospheric convective stability, circulation, and moisture budget. The atmosphere over East Africa is found to be convectively stable in general year-round but with an annual cycle dominated by the surface moist static energy (MSE), which is in phase with the precipitation annual cycle. Throughout the year, the atmospheric circulation is dominated by a pattern of convergence near the surface, divergence in the lower troposphere, and convergence again at upper levels. Consistently, the convergence of the vertically integrated moisture flux is mostly negative across the year, but becomes weakly positive in the two rainy seasons. It is suggested that the semiarid/arid climate in East Africa and its bimodal precipitation annual cycle can be explained by the ventilation mechanism, in which the atmospheric convective stability over East Africa is controlled by the import of low MSE air from the relatively cool Indian Ocean off the coast. During the rainy seasons, however, the off-coast sea surface temperature (SST) increases (and is warmest during the long rains season) and consequently the air imported into East Africa becomes less stable. This analysis may be used to aid in understanding overestimates of the East African short rains commonly found in coupled models.
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Landman, Willem A., David DeWitt, Dong-Eun Lee, Asmerom Beraki, and Daleen Lötter. "Seasonal Rainfall Prediction Skill over South Africa: One- versus Two-Tiered Forecasting Systems." Weather and Forecasting 27, no. 2 (April 1, 2012): 489–501. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-11-00078.1.
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Abstract Forecast performance by coupled ocean–atmosphere or one-tiered models predicting seasonal rainfall totals over South Africa is compared with forecasts produced by computationally less demanding two-tiered systems where prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the atmospheric general circulation model. Two coupled models and one two-tiered model are considered here, and they are, respectively, the ECHAM4.5–version 3 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM3-DC2), the ECHAM4.5-GML–NCEP Coupled Forecast System (CFSSST), and the ECHAM4.5 atmospheric model that is forced with SST anomalies predicted by a statistical model. The 850-hPa geopotential height fields of the three models are statistically downscaled to South African Weather Service district rainfall data by retroactively predicting 3-month seasonal rainfall totals over the 14-yr period from 1995/96 to 2008/09. Retroactive forecasts are produced for lead times of up to 4 months, and probabilistic forecast performance is evaluated for three categories with the outer two categories, respectively, defined by the 25th and 75th percentile values of the climatological record. The resulting forecast skill levels are also compared with skill levels obtained by downscaling forecasts produced by forcing the atmospheric model with simultaneously observed SST in order to produce a reference forecast set. Downscaled forecasts from the coupled systems generally outperform the downscaled forecasts from the two-tiered system, but neither of the two systems outscores the reference forecasts, suggesting that further improvement in operational seasonal rainfall forecast skill for South Africa is still achievable.
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Charles, S. P., B. C. Bates, and N. R. Viney. "Linking atmospheric circulation to daily rainfall patterns across the Murrumbidgee River Basin." Water Science and Technology 48, no. 7 (October 1, 2003): 233–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2003.0445.
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The hydrological cycle in Australia covers an extraordinary range of climatic and hydrologic regimes. It is now widely accepted that Australian hydrology is significantly different from all other regions and continents with the partial exception of southern Africa. Rainfall variability is very high in almost all regions with respect to amount and the lengths of wet and dry spells. These factors are keys to the behaviour and health of Australian aquatic ecosystems and water resources. Thus assessment of how rainfall may change under a potential future climate is critical. For a case study of the Murrumbidgee River Basin (MRB), a statistical downscaling model that links broad scale atmospheric circulation to multi-site, daily precipitation is assessed using observed data. This model can be driven with climate model simulations to produce rainfall scenarios at the scale required by impacts models. These can then be used in probabilistic risk assessments of climate change impacts on river health. These issues will be discussed in the context of assessing the potential impacts of precipitation changes due to projected climate change on river health.
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Panja, D., and F. M. Selten. "Extreme associated functions: optimally linking local extremes to large-scale atmospheric circulation structures." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 7, no. 5 (October 10, 2007): 14433–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-7-14433-2007.
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Abstract. We present a new statistical method to optimally link local weather extremes to large-scale atmospheric circulation structures. The method is illustrated using July–August daily mean temperature at 2 m height (T2m) time-series over the Netherlands and 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) time-series over the Euroatlantic region of the ECMWF reanalysis dataset (ERA40). The method identifies patterns in the Z500 time-series that optimally describe, in a precise mathematical sense, the relationship with local warm extremes in the Netherlands. Two patterns are identified; the most important one corresponds to a blocking high pressure system leading to subsidence and calm, dry and sunny conditions over the Netherlands. The second one corresponds to a rare, easterly flow regime bringing warm, dry air into the region. The patterns are robust; they are also identified in shorter subsamples of the total dataset. The method is generally applicable and might prove useful in evaluating the performance of climate models in simulating local weather extremes.
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Toniazzo, Thomas, Mats Bentsen, Cheryl Craig, Brian E. Eaton, Jim Edwards, Steve Goldhaber, Christiane Jablonowski, and Peter H. Lauritzen. "Enforcing conservation of axial angular momentum in the atmospheric general circulation model CAM6." Geoscientific Model Development 13, no. 2 (February 21, 2020): 685–705. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-685-2020.
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Abstract. Numerical general circulation models of the atmosphere are generally required to conserve mass and energy for their application to climate studies. Here we draw attention to another conserved global integral, viz. the component of angular momentum (AM) along the Earth's axis of rotation, which tends to receive less consideration. We demonstrate the importance of global AM conservation in climate simulations with the example of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) with the finite-volume (FV) dynamical core, which produces a noticeable numerical sink of AM. We use a combination of mathematical analysis and numerical diagnostics to pinpoint the main source of AM non-conservation in CAM–FV. We then present a method to enforce global conservation of AM, and we discuss the results in a hierarchy of numerical simulations of the atmosphere of increasing complexity. In line with theoretical expectations, we show that even a crude, non-local enforcement of AM conservation in the simulations consistently results in the mitigation of certain persistent model biases.
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Spinoni, Jonathan, Paulo Barbosa, Edoardo Bucchignani, John Cassano, Tereza Cavazos, Jens H. Christensen, Ole B. Christensen, et al. "Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data." Journal of Climate 33, no. 9 (May 1, 2020): 3635–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0084.1.
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AbstractTwo questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981–2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.44°) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only, ~15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071–2100 versus 1981–2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (~47% under RCP4.5, ~49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas.
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Zanis, Prodromos, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Robert J. Allen, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Jason Cole, et al. "Fast responses on pre-industrial climate from present-day aerosols in a CMIP6 multi-model study." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20, no. 14 (July 17, 2020): 8381–404. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8381-2020.
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Abstract. In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations: a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014. In response to the pattern of all aerosols effective radiative forcing (ERF), the fast temperature responses are characterized by cooling over the continental areas, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, with the largest cooling over East Asia and India, sulfate being the dominant aerosol surface temperature driver for present-day emissions. In the Arctic there is a warming signal for winter in the ensemble mean of fast temperature responses, but the model-to-model variability is large, and it is presumably linked to aerosol-induced circulation changes. The largest fast precipitation responses are seen in the tropical belt regions, generally characterized by a reduction over continental regions and presumably a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. This is a characteristic and robust feature among most models in this study, associated with weakening of the monsoon systems around the globe (Asia, Africa and America) in response to hemispherically asymmetric cooling from a Northern Hemisphere aerosol perturbation, forcing possibly the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical precipitation to shift away from the cooled hemisphere despite that aerosols' effects on temperature and precipitation are only partly realized in these simulations as the sea surface temperatures are kept fixed. An interesting feature in aerosol-induced circulation changes is a characteristic dipole pattern with intensification of the Icelandic Low and an anticyclonic anomaly over southeastern Europe, inducing warm air advection towards the northern polar latitudes in winter.
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Ricaud, P., J. P. Pommereau, J. L. Attié, E. Le Flochmoën, L. El Amraoui, H. Teyssèdre, V. H. Peuch, W. Feng, and M. P. Chipperfield. "Equatorial transport as diagnosed from nitrous oxide variability." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 9, no. 21 (November 2, 2009): 8173–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-8173-2009.
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Abstract. The mechanisms of transport on annual, semi-annual and quasi-biennial time scales in the equatorial (10° S–10° N) stratosphere are investigated using the nitrous oxide (N2O) measurements of the space-borne ODIN Sub-Millimetre Radiometer from November 2001 to June 2005, and the simulations of the three-dimensional chemical transport models MOCAGE and SLIMCAT. Both models are forced with analyses from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast, but the vertical transport is derived either from the forcing analyses by solving the continuity equation (MOCAGE), or from diabatic heating rates using a radiation scheme (SLIMCAT). The N2O variations in the mid-to-upper stratosphere at levels above 32 hPa are generally well captured by the models though significant differences appear with the observations as well as between the models, attributed to the difficulty of capturing correctly the slow upwelling associated with the Brewer-Dobson circulation. However, in the lower stratosphere, below 32 hPa, the observed variations are shown to be mainly seasonal with peak amplitude at 400–450 K (~17.5–19 km), totally missed by the models. The minimum N2O in June, out of phase by two months with the known minimum seasonal upwelling associated with the Brewer-Dobson circulation and moreover amplified over the Western Pacific compared to Africa is incompatible with the seasonal change of upwelling evoked to explain the O3 annual cycle in the same altitude range (Randel et al., 2007). Unless the 1.5 ppbv amplitude of N2O annual cycle in the upper troposphere is totally wrong, the explanation of the observed N2O annual cycle of 15 ppbv in the lower stratosphere requires another mechanism. A possible candidate for that might be the existence of a downward time-averaged mass flux above specific regions, as shown by Sherwood (2000) over Indonesia, required for compensating the energy sink resulting from the deep overshooting of cold and heavy air at high altitude over intense convective areas. But, since global models do currently not capture this subsidence, it must be recognised that a full explanation of the observations cannot be provided for the moment. However, the coincidence of the peak contrast between the Western Pacific and Africa with the maximum overshooting volume in May reported by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar, suggests a strong influence of deep convection on the chemical composition of the tropical lower stratosphere up to 500 K (21 km).
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Ibebuchi, Chibuike Chiedozie. "On the Relationship between Circulation Patterns, the Southern Annular Mode, and Rainfall Variability in Western Cape." Atmosphere 12, no. 6 (June 10, 2021): 753. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060753.
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This study investigates circulation types (CTs) in Africa, south of the equator, that are related to wet and dry conditions in the Western Cape, the statistical relationship between the selected CTs and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and changes in the frequency of occurrence of the CTs related to the SAM under the ssp585 scenario. Obliquely rotated principal component analysis applied to sea level pressure (SLP) was used to classify CTs in Africa, south of the equator. Three CTs were found to have a high probability of being associated with wet days in the Western Cape, and four CTs were equally found to have a high probability of being associated with dry days in the Western Cape. Generally, the dry/wet CTs feature the southward/northward track of the mid-latitude cyclone, adjacent to South Africa; anti-cyclonic/cyclonic relative vorticity, and poleward/equatorward track of westerlies, south of South Africa. One of the selected wet CTs was significantly related to variations of the SAM. Years with an above-average SAM index correlated with the below-average frequency of occurrences of the wet CT. The results suggest that through the dynamics of the CT, the SAM might control the rainfall variability of the Western Cape. Under the ssp585 scenario, the analyzed climate models indicated a possible decrease in the frequency of occurrence of the aforementioned wet CT associated with cyclonic activity in the mid-latitudes, and an increase in the frequency of the occurrence of CT associated with enhanced SLP at mid-latitudes.
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Gaetani, Marco, Gabriele Messori, Qiong Zhang, Cyrille Flamant, and Francesco S. R. Pausata. "Understanding the Mechanisms behind the Northward Extension of the West African Monsoon during the Mid-Holocene." Journal of Climate 30, no. 19 (August 30, 2017): 7621–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0299.1.
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Abstract Understanding the West African monsoon (WAM) dynamics in the mid-Holocene (MH) is a crucial issue in climate modeling, because numerical models typically fail to reproduce the extensive precipitation suggested by proxy evidence. This discrepancy may be largely due to the assumption of both unrealistic land surface cover and atmospheric aerosol concentration. In this study, the MH environment is simulated in numerical experiments by imposing extensive vegetation over the Sahara and the consequent reduction in airborne dust concentration. A dramatic increase in precipitation is simulated across the whole of West Africa, up to the Mediterranean coast. This precipitation response is in better agreement with proxy data, in comparison with the case in which only changes in orbital forcing are considered. Results show a substantial modification of the monsoonal circulation, characterized by an intensification of large-scale deep convection through the entire Sahara, and a weakening and northward shift (~6.5°) of the African easterly jet. The greening of the Sahara also leads to a substantial reduction in the African easterly wave activity and associated precipitation. The reorganization of the regional atmospheric circulation is driven by the vegetation effect on radiative forcing and associated heat fluxes, with the reduction in dust concentration to enhance this response. The results for the WAM in the MH present important implications for understanding future climate scenarios in the region and in teleconnected areas, in the context of projected wetter conditions in West Africa.
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BattÉ, L., and M. DeÉQueÉ. "Seasonal predictions of precipitation over Africa using coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models: skill of the ENSEMBLES project multimodel ensemble forecasts." Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 63, no. 2 (January 2011): 283–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00493.x.
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Siam, Mohamed S., Marie-Estelle Demory, and Elfatih A. B. Eltahir. "Hydrological Cycles over the Congo and Upper Blue Nile Basins: Evaluation of General Circulation Model Simulations and Reanalysis Products." Journal of Climate 26, no. 22 (October 29, 2013): 8881–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00404.1.
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Abstract The simulations and predictions of the hydrological cycle by general circulation models (GCMs) are characterized by a significant degree of uncertainty. This uncertainty is reflected in the range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) GCM predictions of future changes in the hydrological cycle, particularly over major African basins. The confidence in GCM predictions can be increased by evaluating different GCMs, identifying those models that succeed in simulating the hydrological cycle under current climate conditions, and using them for climate change studies. Reanalyses are often used to validate GCMs, but they also suffer from an inaccurate representation of the hydrological cycle. In this study, the aim is to identify GCMs and reanalyses' products that provide a realistic representation of the hydrological cycle over the Congo and upper Blue Nile (UBN) basins. Atmospheric and soil water balance constraints are employed to evaluate the models' ability to reproduce the observed streamflow, which is the most accurate measurement of the hydrological cycle. Among the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, and 40-yr ECWMF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), ERA-Interim shows the best performance over these basins: it balances the water budgets and accurately represents the seasonal cycle of the hydrological variables. The authors find that most GCMs used by the IPCC overestimate the hydrological cycle compared to observations. They observe some improvement in the simulated hydrological cycle with increased horizontal resolution, which suggests that some of the high-resolution GCMs are better suited for climate change studies over Africa.
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Tian, Zhiping, Tim Li, and Dabang Jiang. "Strengthening and Westward Shift of the Tropical Pacific Walker Circulation during the Mid-Holocene: PMIP Simulation Results." Journal of Climate 31, no. 6 (March 2018): 2283–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0744.1.
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Based on the zonal mass streamfunction, the mid-Holocene annual and seasonal changes in the tropical Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) are examined using numerical simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phases 2 and 3. Compared to the preindustrial period, the annual mean of the PWC intensity strengthened (with an average increase of 0.26 × 1014 kg2 m−2 s−1 or 5%), and both the western edge and center of the PWC cell shifted westward (by an average of 4° and 3°, respectively) in the majority of the 29 models used for analysis during the mid-Holocene. Those changes were closely related to an overall increase in the equatorial Indo-Pacific east–west sea level pressure difference and low-level trade winds over the equatorial Pacific. Annual mean PWC changes come mainly from boreal warm seasons. In response to the mid-Holocene orbital forcing, Asian and North African monsoon rainfall was strengthened due to large-scale surface warming in the Northern Hemisphere in boreal warm seasons, which led to an intensified large-scale thermally direct east–west circulation, resulting in the enhancement and westward shift of the tropical PWC. The opposite occurred during the mid-Holocene boreal cold seasons. Taken together, the change in the monsoon rainfall over the key tropical regions of Asia and North Africa and associated large-scale east–west circulation, rather than the equatorial Pacific SST change pattern, played a key role in affecting the mid-Holocene PWC strength.
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Dosio, Alessandro, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Martina Schubert-Frisius, and Daniel Lüthi. "Dynamical downscaling of CMIP5 global circulation models over CORDEX-Africa with COSMO-CLM: evaluation over the present climate and analysis of the added value." Climate Dynamics 44, no. 9-10 (July 29, 2014): 2637–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2262-x.
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Jackson, Lawrence S., Declan L. Finney, Elizabeth J. Kendon, John H. Marsham, Douglas J. Parker, Rachel A. Stratton, Lorenzo Tomassini, and Simon Tucker. "The Effect of Explicit Convection on Couplings between Rainfall, Humidity, and Ascent over Africa under Climate Change." Journal of Climate 33, no. 19 (October 1, 2020): 8315–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0322.1.
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AbstractThe Hadley circulation and tropical rain belt are dominant features of African climate. Moist convection provides ascent within the rain belt, but must be parameterized in climate models, limiting predictions. Here, we use a pan-African convection-permitting model (CPM), alongside a parameterized convection model (PCM), to analyze how explicit convection affects the rain belt under climate change. Regarding changes in mean climate, both models project an increase in total column water (TCW), a widespread increase in rainfall, and slowdown of subtropical descent. Regional climate changes are similar for annual mean rainfall but regional changes of ascent typically strengthen less or weaken more in the CPM. Over a land-only meridional transect of the rain belt, the CPM mean rainfall increases less than in the PCM (5% vs 14%) but mean vertical velocity at 500 hPa weakens more (17% vs 10%). These changes mask more fundamental changes in underlying distributions. The decrease in 3-hourly rain frequency and shift from lighter to heavier rainfall are more pronounced in the CPM and accompanied by a shift from weak to strong updrafts with the enhancement of heavy rainfall largely due to these dynamic changes. The CPM has stronger coupling between intense rainfall and higher TCW. This yields a greater increase in rainfall contribution from events with greater TCW, with more rainfall for a given large-scale ascent, and so favors slowing of that ascent. These findings highlight connections between the convective-scale and larger-scale flows and emphasize that limitations of parameterized convection have major implications for planning adaptation to climate change.
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Lyon, Bradfield. "Biases in CMIP5 Sea Surface Temperature and the Annual Cycle of East African Rainfall." Journal of Climate 33, no. 19 (October 1, 2020): 8209–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0092.1.
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AbstractIn much of East Africa, climatological rainfall follows a bimodal distribution characterized by the long rains (March–May) and short rains (October–December). Most CMIP5 coupled models fail to properly simulate this annual cycle, typically reversing the amplitudes of the short and long rains relative to observations. This study investigates how CMIP5 climatological sea surface temperature (SST) biases contribute to simulation errors in the annual cycle of East African rainfall. Monthly biases in CMIP5 climatological SSTs (50°S–50°N) are first identified in historical runs (1979–2005) from 31 models and examined for consistency. An atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is then forced with observed SSTs (1979–2005) generating a set of control runs and observed SSTs plus the monthly, multimodel mean SST biases generating a set of “bias” runs for the same period. The control runs generally capture the observed annual cycle of East African rainfall while the bias runs capture prominent CMIP5 annual cycle biases, including too little (much) precipitation during the long rains (short rains) and a 1-month lag in the peak of the long rains relative to observations. Diagnostics reveal the annual cycle biases are associated with seasonally varying north–south- and east–west-oriented SST bias patterns in Indian Ocean and regional-scale atmospheric circulation and stability changes, the latter primarily associated with changes in low-level moist static energy. Overall, the results indicate that CMIP5 climatological SST biases are the primary driver of the improper simulation of the annual cycle of East African rainfall. Some implications for climate change projections are discussed.
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Mao, Yiwen, and Adam Monahan. "Comparison of Linear Predictability of Surface Wind Components from Observations with Simulations from RCMs and Reanalysis." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 57, no. 4 (April 2018): 889–906. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-17-0283.1.
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AbstractThis study compares the predictability of surface wind components by linear statistical downscaling using data from both observations and comprehensive models [regional climate models (RCM) and NCEP-2 reanalysis] in three domains: North America (NAM), Europe–Mediterranean Basin (EMB), and East Asia (EAS). A particular emphasis is placed on predictive anisotropy, a phenomenon referring to unequal predictability of surface wind components in different directions. Simulated predictability by comprehensive models is generally close to that found in observations in flat regions of NAM and EMB, but it is overestimated relative to observations in mountainous terrain. Simulated predictability in EAS shows different structures. In particular, there are regions in EAS where predictability simulated by RCMs is lower than that in observations. Overestimation of predictability by comprehensive models tends to occur in regions of low predictability in observations and can be attributed to small-scale physical processes not resolved by comprehensive models. An idealized mathematical model is used to characterize the predictability of wind components. It is found that the signal strength along the direction of minimum predictability is the dominant control on the strength of predictive anisotropy. The biases in the model representation of the statistical relationship between free-tropospheric circulation and surface winds are interpreted in terms of inadequate simulation of small-scale processes in regional and global models, and the primary cause of predictive anisotropy is attributed to such small-scale processes.
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Jagadheesha, D., and R. Ramesh. "Past monsoons : A review of proxy data and modelling." MAUSAM 52, no. 1 (December 29, 2021): 275–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v52i1.1694.
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Recent modelling studies have given insight into the role of internal feedback processes among components of the climate system on the evolution of monsoon strength since the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years ago). Here we present an overview of these modelling studies related to the summer monsoon over India and northern Africa. These studies indicate that the seasonal insolation changes alone do not explain the observed extent of hydrological changes during the early and middle Holocene over northern Africa. To simulate the extent of observed changes during this period incorporation of vegetation as an active component in climate models appears to be necessary. Over the Indian region, model results show that precipitation-soil moisture feedbacks play an important role in determining the response of the monsoon to changes in insolation and glacial-age surface boundary conditions. Indian monsoon strength from proxy records during the early and middle. Holocene have also been used in conjunction with coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation model experiments to refute the suggestion that semi-permanent warm surface conditions prevailed over equatorial Pacific ocean from 11 to 5ka.
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Shuttleworth, W. J., Z. L. Yang, and M. A. Arain. "Aggregation rules for surface parameters in global models." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 1, no. 2 (June 30, 1997): 217–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-1-217-1997.
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Abstract. Aggregation rules are derived for calculating the effective value of parameters that determine the exchange of momentum and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere at the length scales used in General Circulation Models (GCMs). The derivation involves starting from theories that link parameters relevant at grid scale and patch scale, and then imposing the limitations necessarily present when models are operated in a free-standing, predictive mode. The application of these rules is illustrated by example for the case of the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). Remotely sensed global maps of land cover classes at 1 km x 1 km pixel scale for North America, South America, and Africa are used with these new aggregation rules to calculate area-average values of parameters for the 3° x 3° grid mesh used in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model. There are significant differences between the parameters calculated using aggregation rules and the values selected on the basis of the dominant vegetation cover in each grid, this being the selection procedure conventionally applied with BATS.
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Sud, Y. C., E. Wilcox, W. K. M. Lau, G. K. Walker, X. H. Liu, A. Nenes, D. Lee, K. M. Kim, Y. Zhou, and P. S. Bhattacharjee. "Sensitivity of boreal-summer circulation and precipitation to atmospheric aerosols in selected regions – Part 1: Africa and India." Annales Geophysicae 27, no. 10 (October 23, 2009): 3989–4007. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/angeo-27-3989-2009.
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Abstract. Version-4 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-4) General Circulation Model (GCM) was employed to assess the influence of potential changes in aerosols on the regional circulation, ambient temperatures, and precipitation in four selected regions: India and Africa (current paper), as well as North and South America (companion paper). Ensemble-simulations were carried out with the GCM to assess the aerosol direct and indirect effects, hereafter ADE and AIE. Each simulation was started from the NCEP-analyzed initial conditions for 1 May and was integrated through May-June-July-August of each year: 1982–1987 to provide an ensemble set of six simulations. In the first set, called experiment (#1), climatological aerosols were prescribed. The next two experiments (#2 and #3) had two sets of simulations each: one with 2X and other with 1/2X the climatological aerosols over each of the four selected regions. In experiment #2, the anomaly regions were advectively restricted (AR), i.e., the large-scale prognostic fields outside the aerosol anomaly regions were prescribed while in experiment #3, the anomaly regions were advectively Interactive (AI) as is the case in a normal GCM integrations, but with the same aerosols anomalies as in experiment #2. Intercomparisons of circulation, diabatic heating, and precipitation difference fields showed large disparities among the AR and AI simulations, which raised serious questions about the proverbial AR assumption, commonly invoked in regional climate simulation studies. Consequently AI simulation mode was chosen for the subsequent studies. Two more experiments (#4 and #5) were performed in the AI mode in which ADE and AIE were activated one at a time. The results showed that ADE and AIE work in concert to make the joint influences larger than sum of each acting alone. Moreover, the ADE and AIE influences were vastly different for the Indian and Africa regions, which suggest an imperative need to include them rationally in climate models. We also found that the aerosol induced increase of tropical cirrus clouds would potentially offset any cirrus thinning that may occur due to warming in response to CO2 increase.
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Soldatenko, Sergei A., and Rafael M. Yusupov. "The Determination of Feasible Control Variables for Geoengineering and Weather Modification Based on the Theory of Sensitivity in Dynamical Systems." Journal of Control Science and Engineering 2016 (2016): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/1547462.
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Geophysical cybernetics allows for exploring weather and climate modification (geoengineering) as an optimal control problem in which the Earth’s climate system is considered as a control system and the role of controller is given to human operators. In mathematical models used in climate studies control actions that manipulate the weather and climate can be expressed via variations in model parameters that act as controls. In this paper, we propose the “instability-sensitivity” approach that allows for determining feasible control variables in geoengineering. The method is based on the sensitivity analysis of mathematical models that describe various types of natural instability phenomena. The applicability of this technique is illustrated by a model of atmospheric baroclinic instability since this physical mechanism plays a significant role in the general circulation of the atmosphere and, consequently, in climate formation. The growth rate of baroclinic unstable waves is taken as an indicator of control manipulations. The information obtained via calculated sensitivity coefficients is very beneficial for assessing the physical feasibility of methods of control of the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and for designing optimal control systems for climatic processes. It also provides insight into potential future changes in baroclinic waves, as a result of a changing climate.
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Hannak, Lisa, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Anke Kniffka, and Gregor Pante. "Why Do Global Climate Models Struggle to Represent Low-Level Clouds in the West African Summer Monsoon?" Journal of Climate 30, no. 5 (February 14, 2017): 1665–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0451.1.
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Abstract Climate models struggle to realistically represent the West African monsoon (WAM), which hinders reliable future projections and the development of adequate adaption measures. Low-level clouds over southern West Africa (5°–10°N, 8°W–8°E) during July–September are an integral part of the WAM through their effect on the surface energy balance and precipitation, but their representation in climate models has received little attention. Here 30 (20) years of output from 18 (8) models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Year of Tropical Convection) are used to identify cloud biases and their causes. Compared to ERA-Interim reanalyses, many models show large biases in low-level cloudiness of both signs and a tendency to too high elevation and too weak diurnal cycles. At the same time, these models tend to have too strong low-level jets, the impact of which is unclear because of concomitant effects on temperature and moisture advection as well as turbulent mixing. Part of the differences between the models and ERA-Interim appear to be related to the different subgrid cloud schemes used. While nighttime tendencies in temperature and humidity are broadly realistic in most models, daytime tendencies show large problems with the vertical transport of heat and moisture. Many models simulate too low near-surface relative humidities, leading to insufficient low cloud cover and abundant solar radiation, and thus a too large diurnal cycle in temperature and relative humidity. In the future, targeted model sensitivity experiments will be needed to test possible feedback mechanisms between low clouds, radiation, boundary layer dynamics, precipitation, and the WAM circulation.
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Beraki, Asmerom F., David G. DeWitt, Willem A. Landman, and Cobus Olivier. "Dynamical Seasonal Climate Prediction Using an Ocean–Atmosphere Coupled Climate Model Developed in Partnership between South Africa and the IRI." Journal of Climate 27, no. 4 (February 10, 2014): 1719–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00275.1.
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Abstract The recent increase in availability of high-performance computing (HPC) resources in South Africa allowed the development of an ocean–atmosphere coupled general circulation model (OAGCM). The ECHAM4.5-South African Weather Service (SAWS) Modular Oceanic Model version 3 (MOM3-SA) is the first OAGCM to be developed in Africa for seasonal climate prediction. This model employs an initialization strategy that is different from previous versions of the model that coupled the same atmosphere and ocean models. Evaluation of hindcasts performed with the model revealed that the OAGCM is successful in capturing the development and maturity of El Niño and La Niña episodes up to 8 months ahead. A model intercomparison also indicated that the ECHAM4.5-MOM3-SA has skill levels for the Niño-3.4 region SST comparable with other coupled models administered by international centers. Further analysis of the coupled model revealed that La Niña events are more skillfully discriminated than El Niño events. However, as is typical for OAGCM, the model skill was generally found to decay faster during the spring barrier. The analysis also showed that the coupled model has useful skill up to several-months lead time when predicting the equatorial Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) during the period spanning between the middle of austral spring and the start of the summer seasons, which reaches its peak in November. The weakness of the model in other seasons was mainly caused by the western segment of the dipole, which eventually contaminates the dipole mode index (DMI). The model is also able to forecast the anomalous upper air circulations, particularly in the equatorial belt, and surface air temperature in the Southern African region as opposed to precipitation.
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McCrary, Rachel R., David A. Randall, and Cristiana Stan. "Simulations of the West African Monsoon with a Superparameterized Climate Model. Part I: The Seasonal Cycle." Journal of Climate 27, no. 22 (November 4, 2014): 8303–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00676.1.
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Abstract The West African monsoon seasonal cycle is simulated with two coupled general circulation models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), which uses traditional convective parameterizations, and the “superparameterized” CCSM (SP-CCSM), in which the atmospheric parameterizations have been replaced with an embedded cloud-resolving model. Compared to CCSM, SP-CCSM better represents the magnitude and spatial patterns of summer monsoon precipitation over West Africa. Most importantly, the region of maximum precipitation is shifted from the Gulf of Guinea in CCSM (not realistic) to over the continent in SP-CCSM. SP-CCSM also develops its own biases—namely, excessive rainfall along the Guinean coast in summer. Biases in rainfall from both models are linked to a misrepresentation of the equatorial Atlantic cold tongue. Warm sea surface temperature (SST) biases are linked to westerly trade wind biases and convection within the intertropical convergence zone. Improved SST biases in SP-CCSM are linked to increased tropospheric warming associated with convection. A weaker-than-observed Saharan heat low is found in both models, which explains why the main band of precipitation does not penetrate as far northward as observed. The latitude–height position of the African easterly jet (AEJ) is comparable to observations in both models, but the meridional temperature and moisture gradients and the strength of the jet are too weak in SP-CCSM and too strong in CCSM. Differences in the AEJ are hypothesized to be influenced by the contrasting representation of African easterly waves in both models; no wave activity is found in CCSM, and strong waves are found in SP-CCSM.
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Zhang, Gang, Kerry H. Cook, and Edward K. Vizy. "The Diurnal Cycle of Warm Season Rainfall over West Africa. Part II: Convection-Permitting Simulations." Journal of Climate 29, no. 23 (November 10, 2016): 8439–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0875.1.
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Abstract Convection-permitting simulations at 3-km resolution using a regional climate model are analyzed to improve the understanding of the diurnal cycle of rainfall over West Africa and its underlying physical processes. The warm season of 2006 is used for the model simulations. The model produces an accurate representation of the observed seasonal mean rainfall and lower-troposphere circulation and captures the observed westward propagation of rainfall systems. Most of West Africa has a single diurnal peak of rainfall in the simulations, either in the afternoon or at night, in agreement with observations. However, the number of simulated rainfall systems is greater than observed in association with an overestimation of the initiation of afternoon rainfall over topography. The longevity of the simulated propagating systems is about 30% shorter than is observed, and their propagation speed is nearly 20% faster. The model captures the observed afternoon rainfall peaks associated with elevated topography (e.g., the Jos Plateau). Nocturnal rainfall peaks downstream of the topographic afternoon rainfall are also well simulated. However, these nocturnal rainfall peaks are too widespread, and the model fails to reproduce the observed afternoon rainfall peaks over regions removed from topographic influence. This deficiency is related to a planetary boundary layer that is deeper than observed, elevating unstable profiles and inhibiting afternoon convection. This study concludes that increasing model resolution to convection-permitting space scales significantly improves the diurnal cycle of rainfall compared with the models that parameterize convection, but this is not sufficient to fully resolve the issue, perhaps because other parameterizations remain.
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Diaconescu, Emilia Paula, Philippe Gachon, and René Laprise. "On the Remapping Procedure of Daily Precipitation Statistics and Indices Used in Regional Climate Model Evaluation." Journal of Hydrometeorology 16, no. 6 (November 12, 2015): 2301–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-15-0025.1.
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Abstract Gridded estimates of precipitation using both satellite and observational station data are regularly used as reference products in the evaluation of basic climate fields and derived indices as simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) over the current period. One of the issues encountered in RCM evaluation is the fact that RCMs and reference fields are usually on different grids and often at different horizontal resolutions. A proper RCM evaluation requires remapping on a common grid. For the climate indices or other derived fields, the remapping can be done in two ways: either as a first-step operation on the original field with the derived index computed on the final/common grid in a second step, or to compute first the climate index on the original grid before remapping or regridding it as a last-step operation on the final/common grid. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how the two approaches affect the final field, thus contributing to one of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in Africa (CORDEX-Africa) goals of providing a benchmark framework for RCM evaluation over the West Africa monsoon area, using several daily precipitation indices. The results indicate the advantage of using the last-step remapping procedure, regardless of the mathematical method chosen for the remapping, in order to minimize errors in the indices under evaluation.
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Putrasahan, Dian, Ben P. Kirtman, and Lisa M. Beal. "Modulation of SST Interannual Variability in the Agulhas Leakage Region Associated with ENSO." Journal of Climate 29, no. 19 (September 19, 2016): 7089–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0172.1.
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Abstract The Agulhas leakage transports warm and saline water from the Indian Ocean into the South Atlantic Ocean, forming part of the upper returning arm of the meridional overturning circulation, which can influence climate. Ocean–atmosphere interactions and the strength of Agulhas leakage control sea surface temperature (SST) in the Agulhas leakage corridor, which may in turn affect regional climate variability. In a high-resolution run of the Community Climate System Model (version 3.5; CCSM3.5), it is found that the interannual variability of Agulhas leakage SST is linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Anomalous wind stress curl over the south Indian Ocean associated with ENSO excites westward-propagating oceanic Rossby waves that initiate southwestward-propagating anomalies along the coast of Africa. It takes approximately 2 years for this signal to reach the southern tip of South Africa and enter the South Atlantic, where it accounts for 20%–30% of the interannual SSH variability in the Agulhas leakage region. The authors find a similar propagation of anomalies with satellite observations. A similar ENSO cycle along with Rossby wave adjustment is detected in an analogous low-resolution CCSM3.5 run. However, the signal does not propagate all the way along the boundary to affect Agulhas leakage SST. Hence, it is found that high-resolution coupled climate models are necessary to resolve the tropical–subtropical oceanic teleconnection between ENSO and Agulhas leakage SST.
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Nohara, Daisuke, Akio Kitoh, Masahiro Hosaka, and Taikan Oki. "Impact of Climate Change on River Discharge Projected by Multimodel Ensemble." Journal of Hydrometeorology 7, no. 5 (October 1, 2006): 1076–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm531.1.
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Abstract This study investigates the projections of river discharge for 24 major rivers in the world during the twenty-first century simulated by 19 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario. To reduce model bias and uncertainty, a weighted ensemble mean (WEM) is used for multimodel projections. Although it is difficult to reproduce the present river discharge in any single model, the WEM results produce more accurate reproduction for most rivers, except those affected by anthropogenic water usage. At the end of the twenty-first century, the annual mean precipitation, evaporation, and runoff increase in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, southern to eastern Asia, and central Africa. In contrast, they decrease in the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southern North America, and Central America. Although the geographical distribution of the changes in precipitation and runoff tends to coincide with that in the river discharge, it should be emphasized that the change in runoff at the upstream region affects the river flow in the downstream region. In high-latitude rivers (Amur, Lena, MacKenzie, Ob, Yenisei, and Yukon), the discharge increases, and the peak timing shifts earlier because of an earlier snowmelt caused by global warming. Discharge tends to decrease for the rivers in Europe to the Mediterranean region (Danube, Euphrates, and Rhine), and southern United Sates (Rio Grande).
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Segele, Zewdu T., Peter J. Lamb, and Lance M. Leslie. "Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability of Ethiopia/Horn of Africa Monsoon. Part I: Associations of Wavelet-Filtered Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Global Sea Surface Temperature." Journal of Climate 22, no. 12 (June 15, 2009): 3396–421. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2859.1.
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Abstract Horn of Africa rainfall varies on multiple time scales, but the underlying climate system controls on this variability have not been examined comprehensively. This study therefore investigates the linkages between June–September Horn of Africa (especially Ethiopian) rainfall and regional atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature (SST) variations on several key time scales. Wavelet analysis of 5-day average or monthly total rainfall for 1970–99 identifies the dominant coherent modes of rainfall variability. Several regional atmospheric variables and global SST are then identically wavelet filtered, based on the rainfall frequency bands. Regression, correlation, and composite analyses are subsequently used to identify the most important rainfall–climate system time-scale relationships. The results show that Ethiopian monsoon rainfall variation is largely linked with annual time-scale atmospheric circulation patterns involving variability in the major components of the monsoon system. Although variability on the seasonal (75–210 days), quasi-biennial (QB; 1.42–3.04 yr), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO; 3.04–4.60 yr) time scales accounts for much less variance than the annual mode (210 days–1.42 yr), they significantly affect Ethiopian rainfall by preferentially modulating the major regional monsoon components and remote teleconnection linkages. The seasonal time scale largely acts in phase with the annual mode, by enhancing or reducing the lower-tropospheric southwesterlies from the equatorial Atlantic during wet or dry periods. The wet QB phase strengthens the Azores and Saharan high and the tropical easterly jet (TEJ) over the Arabian Sea, while the wet ENSO phase enhances the Mascarene high, the TEJ, and the monsoon trough more locally. The effects of tropical SST on Ethiopian rainfall also are prominent on the QB and ENSO time scales. While rainfall–SST correlations for both the QB and ENSO modes are strongly positive (negative) over the equatorial western (eastern) Pacific, only ENSO exhibits widespread strong negative correlations over the Indian Ocean. Opposite QB and ENSO associations tend to characterize dry Ethiopian conditions. The relationships identified on individual time scales now are being used to develop and validate statistical prediction models for Ethiopia.