Journal articles on the topic 'Atmosphere and Weather not elsewhere classified'

Vegetation modifies land-surface properties, mediating the exchange of energy, moisture, trace gases, and aerosols between the land and the atmosphere. These exchanges influence the atmosphere on local, regional, and global scales. Through altering surface properties, vegetation change can impact on weather and climate. We review current understanding of the processes through which tropical land-cover change (LCC) affects rainfall. Tropical deforestation leads to reduced evapotranspiration, increasing surface temperatures by 1–3 K and causing boundary layer circulations, which in turn increase rainfall over some regions and reduce it elsewhere. On larger scales, deforestation leads to reductions in moisture recycling, reducing regional rainfall by up to 40%. Impacts of future tropical LCC on rainfall are uncertain but could be of similar magnitude to those caused by climate change. Climate and sustainable development policies need to account for the impacts of tropical LCC on local and regional rainfall.

Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) imagery has been widely used in remote sensing and photogrammetry for some time. Increasingly often, apart from recording images in the red-green-blue (RGB) range, multispectral images are also recorded. It is important to accurately assess the radiometric quality of UAV imagery to eliminate interference that might reduce the interpretation potential of the images and distort the results of remote sensing analyses. Such assessment should consider the influence of the atmosphere and the seasonal and weather conditions at the time of acquiring the imagery. The assessment of the radiometric quality of images acquired in different weather conditions is crucial in terms of improving the interpretation potential of the imagery and improving the accuracy of determining the indicators used in remote sensing and in environmental monitoring. Until now, the assessment of radiometric quality of UAV imagery did not consider the influence of meteorological conditions at different times of year. This paper presents an assessment of the influence of weather conditions on the quality of UAV imagery acquired in the visible range. This study presents the methodology for assessing image quality, considering the weather conditions characteristic of autumn in Central and Eastern Europe. The proposed solution facilitates the assessment of the radiometric quality of images acquired in the visible range. Using the objective indicator of quality assessment developed in this study, images were classified into appropriate categories, allowing, at a later stage, to improve the results of vegetation indices. The obtained results confirm that the proposed quality assessment methodology enables the objective assessment of the quality of imagery acquired in different meteorological conditions.

Abstract. Very few studies of ecosystem–atmosphere exchange involving eddy covariance data have been conducted in Siberia, with none in the western Siberian middle taiga. This work provides the first estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) and energy budgets in a typical bog of the western Siberian middle taiga based on May–August measurements in 2015. The footprint of measured fluxes consisted of a homogeneous mixture of tree-covered ridges and hollows with the vegetation represented by typical sedges and shrubs. Generally, the surface exchange rates resembled those of pine-covered bogs elsewhere. The surface energy balance closure approached 100 %. Net CO2 uptake was comparatively high, summing up to 202 gC m−2 for the four measurement months, while the Bowen ratio was seasonally stable at 28 %. The ecosystem turned into a net CO2 source during several front passage events in June and July. The periods of heavy rain helped keep the water table at a sustainably high level, preventing a usual drawdown in summer. However, because of the cloudy and rainy weather, the observed fluxes might rather represent the special weather conditions of 2015 than their typical magnitudes.

A cloud is a mass of water vapor floating in the atmosphere. It is visible from the ground and can remain at a variable height for some time. Clouds are very important because their interaction with the rest of the atmosphere has a decisive influence on weather, for instance by sunlight occlusion or by bringing rain. Weather denotes atmosphere behavior and is determinant in several human activities, such as agriculture or energy capture. Therefore, cloud detection is an important process about which several methods have been investigated and published in the literature. The aim of this paper is to review some of such proposals and the papers that have been analyzed and discussed can be, in general, classified into three types. The first one is devoted to the analysis and explanation of clouds and their types, and about existing imaging systems. Regarding cloud detection, dealt with in a second part, diverse methods have been analyzed, i.e., those based on the analysis of satellite images and those based on the analysis of images from cameras located on Earth. The last part is devoted to cloud forecast and tracking. Cloud detection from both systems rely on thresholding techniques and a few machine-learning algorithms. To compute the cloud motion vectors for cloud tracking, correlation-based methods are commonly used. A few machine-learning methods are also available in the literature for cloud tracking, and have been discussed in this paper too.

Drought, and its associated impacts, represents one of the costliest natural hazards worldwide, highlighting the need for prediction and preparedness. While advancements have been made in monitoring current droughts, prediction of onset and termination have proven to be much more challenging. This is because drought is unlike any other natural hazard and cannot be characterised by a single weather event. There is also a high degree of spatial variability in this phenomenon across the vast expanse of the Australian continent. Therefore, by characterising regionally specific expressions of drought, we may improve drought predictability. In this study, we analyse the timing of onset and termination of meteorological droughts across Australia from 1900 to 2015, as well as their local and regional climate controls. We show that meteorological drought onset has a strong seasonal signature across Australia that varies spatially, whereas termination is less seasonally restricted. Using a Random Forest modelling approach with predictor variables representative of large-scale ocean-atmosphere phenomena and local climate, up to 75% of the variance in the Standardised Precipitation Index during both onset and termination could be explained. This study offers support to continued development in long-lead forecasting of local and large-scale ocean/atmosphere conditions to improve drought prediction in Australia and elsewhere.

Abstract Fair-weather cumuli are fundamental in regulating the vertical structure of water vapor and entropy in the lowest 2–3 km of the earth’s atmosphere over vast areas of the oceans. In this study, a long record of profiling cloud radar observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Climate Research Facility (ACRF) at Nauru Island is used to investigate cloud vertical air motion statistics over an 8-yr observing period. Appropriate processing of the observed low radar reflectivities provides radar volume samples that contain only small cloud droplets; thus, the Doppler velocities are used as air motion tracers. The technique is applied to shallow boundary layer clouds (less than 1000 m thick) during the 1999–2007 period when radar data are available. Using the boundary layer winds from the soundings obtained at the Nauru ACRF, the fair-weather cumuli fields are classified in easterly and westerly boundary layer wind regimes. This distinction is necessary to separate marine-forced (westerlies) from land-forced (easterlies) shallow clouds because of a well-studied island effect at the Nauru ACRF. The two regimes exhibit large diurnal differences in cloud fraction and cloud dynamics as manifested by the analysis of the hourly averaged vertical air motion statistics. The fair-weather cumuli fields associated with easterlies exhibit a strong diurnal cycle in cloud fraction and updraft strength and fraction, indicating a strong influence of land-forced clouds. In contrast over the fair-weather cumuli with oceanic origin, land-forced clouds are characterized by uniform diurnal cloudiness and persistent updrafts at the cloud-base level. This study provides a unique observational dataset appropriate for testing fair-weather cumulus mass flux and turbulence parameterizations in numerical models.

Alaska lost 10% of its boreal forest area due to vigorous forest fires in 2004 and 2005. Repeated lightningcaused forest fires adversely impact residents and influence earth’s atmosphere in every fire season. The authors have reported on the weather conditions of Alaska’s most severe lightning occurrence in mid June 2005. This paper examines a range of weather indices like soar, instability, ‘dry lightning’ and other factors that could clearly explain lightning characteristics in Alaska. First, lightning occurrence days from May to September were classified into ‘non or small lightning’ days and ‘lightning’ days to determine threshold values. Second, ‘lightning’ days were categorized into ‘less severe,’ ‘severe,’ ‘very severe,’ and ‘extremely severe’ to notice controlling factors on the lightning severity. Based on this analysis, the lifted index (LIFT) was selected as sensitive to assess upper air instability, and Te850 (environmental temperature at 850 hPa) was selected as sensitive to assess warm and moist air masses. Finally, the possibilities of lightning forecasts in Alaska are discussed using lightning occurrence and LIFT and Te850 in 2005. As there is a time-lag between LIFT measurements (14:00) and the lightning peak (-17:00), and around one day time-lag between Te850 and lightning occurrence, lightning forecasts using LIFT and Te850 could provide a simply applicable forecast index for Alaska.

Mangrove is one of the ecologically significant ecosystems in coastal areas, both on environment and biological resources. Radar remote sensing demonstrates a high potential in detecting, identifying, mapping and monitoring mangrove forests. Advantages of radar remote sensing are that almost unaffected by the weather phenomena in the atmosphere, e.g. clouds so that it can acquire images at day and night times. This study considers possibilities of ALOS PALSAR (L-band) and ENVISAT ASAR APP (C-band) for identifying mangrove forests. Results show that using single-date data of ENVISAT ASAR APP including dual polarization HH&HV are difficult to classify mangrove objects; whilst single-date data of ALOS PALSAR with dual polarization HH&HV have a better classification for tree density but at species level identification (e.g. Avicenna or Rhizophora) is more difficult. Results classified according to forest cover density data with overall accuracy of 81.91.

Abstract. Relationships between solar activity and climate in the North Atlantic region have long been reported and, more recently, mechanisms have been proposed to explain these. Normally such relationships are tested over decadal time scales. Here, daily sea surface temperature fields bridging the period of exceptionally low solar activity between solar cycles 23 and 24 have been analysed. The day-to-day variability of the fields has been measured and the fields have been classified, using cluster analysis. The main water masses are clearly expressed, together with detail of their interactions. Three features relate to the level of solar activity. First, there is a statistically significant difference in the day-to-day variability of the sea surface temperature field between the period of lowest solar activity and the remaining periods. Second, during the transition from summer to winter, there are systematic, inter-annual changes in the day-to-day variability of the sea surface temperature field. Third, the forms of the late summer temperature fields exhibit symmetry about the years of lowest solar activity. These features are attributable to variability in the passage of weather systems. The influence on North Atlantic surface climate of variations in the solar ultraviolet band acting through the stratosphere has been reported in a number of studies. This provides a credible mechanism for solar activity influencing sea surface temperatures in the Greenland Sea.

Abstract Urban–coastal circulations affect urban weather, dispersion and transport of pollutants and contaminants, and climate. Proper characterization and prediction of thermodynamic and dynamic processes in such environments are warranted. A new generation of observation and modeling systems is enabling unprecedented characterization of the three-dimensionality of the urban environment, including morphological parameters. Urban areas of Houston, Texas, are classified according to lidar-measured building heights and assigned typical urban land surface parameters appropriate to each classification. The lidar data were degraded from 1 m to the model resolution (1 km) with the goal of evaluating the impact of degraded resolution urban canopy parameters (UCPs) and three-dimensionality on the coastal–urban mesoscale circulations in comparison to typical two-dimensional urban slab approaches. The study revealed complex interactions between the sea breeze and urban heat island and offers a novel diagnostic tool, the bulk Richardson shear number, for identifying shallow mesoscale circulation. Using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (ARW-WRF) coupled to an atmosphere–land surface–urban canopy model, the authors simulated a theoretical sea-breeze day and confirmed that while coastal morphology can itself lead to complex sea-breeze front structures, including preferred areas of vertical motion, the urban environment can have an impact on the evolution of the sea-breeze mesoscale boundary. The inclusion of lidar-derived UCPs, even at degraded resolution, in the model’s land surface representation can lead to significant differences in patterns of skin surface temperature, convergence, and vertical motion, which have implications for many aspects of urban weather.

AbstractSnow cover plays a significant role in the weather and climate system by affecting the energy and mass transfer between the surface and the atmosphere. It also has far-reaching effects on ecosystems of snow-covered areas. Therefore, global snow-cover observations in a timely manner are needed. Satellite-based instruments can be utilized to produce snow-cover information that is suitable for these needs. Highly variable surface and snow-cover features suggest that operational snow extent algorithms may benefit from at least a partly empirical approach that is based on carefully analyzed training data. Here, a new two-phase snow-cover algorithm utilizing data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on board the MetOp satellites of the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) is introduced and evaluated. This algorithm is used to produce the MetOp/AVHRR H32 snow extent product for the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H SAF). The algorithm aims at direct detection of snow-covered and snow-free pixels without preceding cloud masking. Pixels that cannot be classified reliably to snow or snow-free, because of clouds or other reasons, are set as unclassified. This reduces the coverage but increases the accuracy of the algorithm. More than four years of snow-depth and state-of-the-ground observations from weather stations were used to validate the product. Validation results show that the algorithm produces high-quality snow coverage data that may be suitable for numerical weather prediction, hydrological modeling, and other applications.

Abstract Numerical weather, climate, or Earth system models involve the coupling of components. At a broad level, these components can be classified as the resolved fluid dynamics, unresolved fluid dynamical aspects (i.e., those represented by physical parameterizations such as subgrid-scale mixing), and nonfluid dynamical aspects such as radiation and microphysical processes. Typically, each component is developed, at least initially, independently. Once development is mature, the components are coupled to deliver a model of the required complexity. The implementation of the coupling can have a significant impact on the model. As the error associated with each component decreases, the errors introduced by the coupling will eventually dominate. Hence, any improvement in one of the components is unlikely to improve the performance of the overall system. The challenges associated with combining the components to create a coherent model are here termed physics–dynamics coupling. The issue goes beyond the coupling between the parameterizations and the resolved fluid dynamics. This paper highlights recent progress and some of the current challenges. It focuses on three objectives: to illustrate the phenomenology of the coupling problem with references to examples in the literature, to show how the problem can be analyzed, and to create awareness of the issue across the disciplines and specializations. The topics addressed are different ways of advancing full models in time, approaches to understanding the role of the coupling and evaluation of approaches, coupling ocean and atmosphere models, thermodynamic compatibility between model components, and emerging issues such as those that arise as model resolutions increase and/or models use variable resolutions.

Abstract. We estimate future area burned in Alaskan and Canadian forest by the midcentury (2046–2065) based on the simulated meteorology from 13 climate models under the A1B scenario. We develop ecoregion-dependent regressions using observed relationships between annual total area burned and a suite of meteorological variables and fire weather indices, and apply these regressions to the simulated meteorology. We find that for Alaska and western Canada almost all models predict significant (p < 0.05) increases in area burned at the midcentury, with median values ranging from 150 to 390%, depending on the ecoregion. Such changes are attributed to the higher surface air temperatures and 500 hPa geopotential heights relative to present day, which together lead to favorable conditions for wildfire spread. Elsewhere the model predictions are not as robust. For the central and southern Canadian ecoregions, the models predict increases in area burned of 45–90%. Except for the Taiga Plain, where area burned decreases by 50%, no robust trends are found in northern Canada, due to the competing effects of hotter weather and wetter conditions there. Using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we find that changes in wildfire emissions alone increase mean summertime surface ozone levels by 5 ppbv for Alaska, 3 ppbv for Canada, and 1 ppbv for the western US by the midcentury. In the northwestern US states, local wildfire emissions at midcentury enhance surface ozone by an average of 1 ppbv, while transport of boreal fire pollution further degrades ozone air quality by an additional 0.5 ppbv. The projected changes in wildfire activity increase daily summertime surface ozone above the 95th percentile by 1 ppbv in the northwestern US, 5 ppbv in the high latitudes of Canada, and 15 ppbv in Alaska, suggesting a greater frequency of pollution episodes in the future atmosphere.

Abstract. We estimate future area burned in the Alaskan and Canadian forest by the mid-century (2046–2065) based on the simulated meteorology from 13 climate models under the A1B scenario. We develop ecoregion-dependent regressions using observed relationships between annual total area burned and a suite of meteorological variables and fire weather indices, and apply these regressions to the simulated meteorology. We find that for Alaska and western Canada, almost all models predict significant (p < 0.05) increases in area burned at the mid-century, with median values ranging from 150 to 390 %, depending on the ecoregion. Such changes are attributed to the higher surface air temperatures and 500 hPa geopotential heights relative to present day, which together lead to favorable conditions for wildfire spread. Elsewhere the model predictions are not as robust. For the central and southern Canadian ecoregions, the models predict increases in area burned of 45–90 %. Except for the Taiga Plain, where area burned decreases by 50 %, no robust trends are found in northern Canada, due to the competing effects of hotter weather and wetter conditions there. Using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we find that changes in wildfire emissions alone increase mean summertime surface ozone levels by 5 ppbv for Alaska, 3 ppbv for Canada, and 1 ppbv for the western US by the mid-century. In the northwestern US states, local wildfire emissions at the mid-century enhance surface ozone by an average of 1 ppbv, while transport of boreal fire pollution further degrades ozone air quality by an additional 0.5 ppbv. The projected changes in wildfire activity increase daily summertime surface ozone above the 95th percentile by 1 ppbv in the northwestern US, 5 ppbv in the high latitudes of Canada, and 15 ppbv in Alaska, suggesting a greater frequency of pollution episodes in the future atmosphere.

ABSTRACT Solar cycle 24 is one of the weakest solar cycles recorded, but surprisingly the declining phase of it had a slow coronal mass ejection (CME) that evolved without any low coronal signature and is classified as a stealth CME that was responsible for an intense geomagnetic storm at Earth (Dst = −176 nT). The impact of this space weather event on the terrestrial ionosphere has been reported. However, the propagation of this CME beyond 1 au and the impact of this CME on other planetary environments have not been studied so far. In this paper, we analyse the data from the Sun–Earth L1 point and from the Martian orbit (near 1.5 au) to understand the characteristics of the stealth CME as observed beyond 1 au. The observations near Earth are using data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite located at L1 point, whereas those near Mars are from the instruments for plasma and magnetic field measurements onboard Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission. The observations show that the stealth CME has reached 1.5 au after 7 d of its initial observations at the Sun and caused depletion in the nightside topside ionosphere of Mars, as observed during the inbound phase measurements of the Langmuir Probe and Waves (LPW) instrument onboard MAVEN. These observations have implications on the ion escape rates from the Martian upper atmosphere.

During the pre-monsoon months of March, April and May the weather over Kolkata is generally very uncomfortable due to high temperature and relative humidity. During this season Kolkata is affected by the nor’wester activity. Generally the nor’wester activity is defined as a disastrous weather activity and is locally called as ‘Kaalbaisakhi’ as it is ‘kaal’ or destruction during Bengali Baishakh (April-May) month over Bengal. However the downdraft associated with the nor’wester brings cool air and temperature sometimes drops by as much as 8 to 9 degree Celsius and the atmosphere becomes comfortable for some period. This is an entirely different and positive aspect of nor’wester.The human comfortability depends upon many weather parameters apart from human physiological parameters. However the primary weather factors are air temperature and relative humidity especially for tropical areas. Many authors have worked on this and the well accepted formula for thermal index THI or Discomfort Index DI is taken from Thom (1957,1958) which is a function of dry bulb and wet bulb temperature i.e., THI or DI = 0.4 (Ta + Tw) + 15 where temperature is in ºF and is 0.72 (Ta + Tw) + 40.6 where temperature is in ºC. Various stages of comfortability are classified viz., (i) Discomfortable (ii) Partial discomfortable and (iii) Comfortable. Neglecting the effect of wind and further simplifying the equation for DI as a function of (Ta + Tw) the range varies from 27 to 55 in increasing order of temperature.During the pre-monsoon months when the climate over Kolkata is very sultry and uncomfortable, people generally desire the onset of nor’wester for some temporary relief although it results into destruction. The nor’wester makes the weather comfortable after its occurrence and remains comfortable for 10 to 12 hours and some time even for a day. The present study is made taking six years data over Kolkata, both Alipore and Dum Dum. It is seen that except early morning of March the remaining period of pre-monsoon season is found to be uncomfortable climatologically. In the present study there were 91 occasions of squalls and it is found that most of the squalls occurred during the month of April and May and on most of the occasions nor’wester made the weather comfortable for a large part of the day in the month of April. By the end of May nor’wester activity also brought relief but not to that extent as in March and April to the people of Kolkata and neighbourhood.

AbstractNocturnal convection initiation (NCI) is more difficult to anticipate and forecast than daytime convection initiation (CI). A major component of the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign in the U.S. Great Plains was to intensively sample NCI and its near environment. In this article, we summarize NCI types observed during PECAN: 1 June–16 July 2015. These NCI types, classified using PECAN radar composites, are associated with 1) frontal overrunning, 2) the low-level jet (LLJ), 3) a preexisting mesoscale convective system (MCS), 4) a bore or density current, and 5) a nocturnal atmosphere lacking a clearly observed forcing mechanism (pristine). An example and description of each of these different types of PECAN NCI events are presented. The University of Oklahoma real-time 4-km Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model ensemble forecast runs illustrate that the above categories having larger-scale organization (e.g., NCI associated with frontal overrunning and NCI near a preexisting MCS) were better forecasted than pristine. Based on current knowledge and data from PECAN, conceptual models summarizing key environmental features are presented and physical processes underlying the development of each of these different types of NCI events are discussed.

Abstract A large set of hourly meteorological data from seven towers deployed in Montesina Valley (Cordoba, Spain) is studied in relation to the prevailing synoptic situation. The complete collection of daily synoptic maps for 1985-90 has been classified in seven basic weather patterns. First-order transition probabilities and weatherpattern persistences have been calculated for each of the patterns. The behavior of the local valley wind field is described as a function of the synoptic patterns. The work reported here, based on observations of the characteristic time and space patterns of flow in the valley under different synoptic conditions, has made it possible to obtain a set of empirical rules and regression functions to produce forecasts of the local wind field as a function of the synoptic situation and the hour of the day to be used in the emergency plans. The result of this work is currently being implemented in an atmospheric dispersion module of an expert system that will be used as a tool to predict the evolution of accidental and routine hazardous emissions to the atmosphere in complex terrain such as valleys and coastal areas.

Abstract Wind vectors over the ocean were extracted from a large number of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images from the European Remote Sensing Satellites (ERS-1 and ERS-2). The wind directions are inferred from the orientation of wind streaks that are imaged by the SAR, while the wind speeds are retrieved by inversion of the C-band model CMOD4. The derived wind directions and speeds were compared to wind vectors from the numerical Regional Model (REMO) that are available hourly on a 55-km grid. The large number of comparisons and independent weather situations allowed for an analysis of subsets that are classified by SAR-derived wind speed. A strong decrease of the standard deviation of directional differences with increasing wind speed was found. Biases of directional differences depend on SAR wind speed as well. Furthermore, the influence of the temporal difference between SAR overflight and model and an automatic image filtering on the directional error is demonstrated. Overall, reasonable fields of wind vectors were extracted from SAR imagery in 70 of 80 cases. These fields provide valuable information for validation of numerical models of the atmosphere and case studies of coastal wind fields.

Abstract On 31 May 1998, an F3 tornado struck Mechanicville, New York, injuring 68 people and causing $71 million in damage. The tornado was part of a widespread, severe weather outbreak across the northeast United States. The synoptic conditions that caused the outbreak and the mesoscale and storm-scale environments that produced the tornado are discussed. The coupling of two strong upper-level jets and a very strong low-level jet, in association with an unseasonably strong surface cyclone, created a synoptic-scale environment favorable for severe weather. As the result of these jet interactions, a very warm, moist air mass was transported into the Northeast with an associated increase in the wind shear in the lower troposphere. A terrain-channeled low-level southerly flow up the Hudson Valley may have created a mesoscale environment that was especially favorable for tornadic supercell development by increasing storm-relative helicity in the low levels of the atmosphere and by transporting warm, moist air northward up the valley, leading to increased instability. A broken line of locally severe thunderstorms moved eastward across New York several hours prior to the tornado. The storm that produced the Mechanicville tornado developed over central New York ahead of this line of storms. As the line of storms moved east, it intensified into a solid line and bowed forward down the Mohawk Valley of New York. These storms were moving faster than the isolated supercell to the east and overtook the supercell where the eastern end of the Mohawk Valley opens into the Hudson Valley. Based on limited observational evidence and the results of simulations of idealized quasi-linear convective systems reported elsewhere in the literature, it is hypothesized that backed low-level flow ahead of a bookend vortex at the northern end of the bowing line of storms over the Mohawk Valley may have contributed to the tornadogenesis process as the squall line overtook and interacted with the intensifying supercell.

High rates of deep drainage (water loss below the root-zone) in Western Australia are contributing to groundwater recharge and secondary salinity. However, quantifying potential drainage through measurements is hampered by the high degree of complexity of these systems as a result of diverse soil types, a range of crops, different rainfall regions, and in particular the inherent season-to-season variability. Simulation models can provide the appropriate means to extrapolate across time and space. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to analyse deep drainage under wheat crops in the Mediterranean climate of the central Western Australian wheatbelt. In addition to rigorous model testing elsewhere, comparisons between simulated and observed soil water loss, evapotranspiration, and deep drainage for different soil types and seasons confirmed the reasonable performance of the APSIM model. The APSIM model was run with historical weather records (70–90 years) across 2 transects from the coast (high rainfall zone) to the eastern edge of the wheatbelt (low rainfall zone). Soils were classified as 5 major types: deep sand, deep loamy sand, acid loamy sand, shallow duplex (waterlogging), and clay soil (non-waterlogging). Simulations were carried out on these soil types with historical weather records, assuming current crop management and cultivars. Soil water profiles were reset each year to the lower limit of plant-available water, assuming maximum water use in the previous crop. Results stressed the high degree of seasonal variability of deep drainage ranging from 0 to 386 mm at Moora in the high rainfall region (461 mm/year average rainfall), from 0 to 296 mm at Wongan Hills in the medium rainfall region (386 mm/year average rainfall), and from 0 to 234 mm at Merredin in the low rainfall region (310 mm/year average rainfall). The largest amounts of drainage occurred in soils with lowest extractable water-holding capacities. Estimates of annual drainage varied with soil type and location. For example, average (s.d.) annual drainage at Moora, Wongan Hills, and Merredin was 134 (73), 90 (61), and 36 (43) mm on a sand, and 57 (64), 26 (43), and 4 (18) mm on a clay soil, respectively. These values are an order of magnitude higher than drainage reported elsewhere under native vegetation. When not resetting the soil each year, carry-over of water left behind in the soil reduced the water storage capacity in the subsequent year, increasing long-term average deep drainage, depending on soil type and rainfall region. The analyses revealed the extent of the excess water problem that currently threatens the sustainability of the wheat-based farming systems in Western Australia.

Accurate estimation of the atmospheric boundary layer height (ABLH) is critically important and it mainly relies on the detection of the vertical profiles of atmosphere variables (temperature, humidity,’ and horizontal wind speed) or aerosols. Aerosol Lidar is a powerful remote sensing instrument frequently used to retrieve ABLH through the detection of the vertical distribution of aerosol concentration. A challenge is that cloud, residual layer (RL), and local signal structure seriously interfere with the lidar measurement of ABLH. A new objective technique presenting as giving a top limiter altitude is introduced to reduce the interference of RL and cloud layer on ABLH determination. Cloud layers are identified by looking for the rapid increase and sharp attenuation of the signal combined with the relative increase in the signal. The cloud layers weather overlay are classified or are decoupled from the ABL by analyzing the continuity of the signal below the cloud base. For cloud layer capping of the ABL, the limiter is determined to be the altitude where a positive signal gradient first occurs above the cloud upper edge. For a cloud that is decoupled from the ABL, the cloud base is considered to be the altitude limiter. For RL in the morning, the altitude limiter is the greatest positive gradient altitude below the RL top. The ABLH will be determined below the top limiter altitude using Haar wavelet (HM) and the curve fitting method (CFM). Besides, the interference of local signal noise is eliminated through consideration of the temporal continuity. While comparing the lidar-determined ABLH by HM (or CFM) and nearby radiosonde measurements of the ABLH, a reasonable concordance is found with a correlation coefficient of 0.94 (or 0.96) and 0.79 (or 0.74), presenting a mean of the relative absolute differences with respect to radiosonde measurements of 10.5% (or 12.3%) and 22.3% (or 17.2%) for cloud-free and cloudy situations, respectively. The diurnal variations in the ABLH determined from HM and CFM on four selected cases show good agreement with a mean correlation coefficient higher than 0.99 and a mean absolute bias of 0.22 km. Also, the determined diurnal ABLH are consistent with surface turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) combined with the time-height distribution of the equivalent potential temperature.

Abstract. The influence of intraseasonal variation (ISV) on convective activities over Sumatera (or Sumatra) is studied by using data derived from the Equatorial Atmosphere Radar (EAR), the Boundary Layer Radar (BLR), the surface weather station, the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS), and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In June 2002, convective activities over the Indian Ocean, the maritime continent, and the western Pacific were significantly modulated by the ISV. Blackbody brightness temperature observed by GMS (TBB) showed that two super cloud clusters (SCCs) developed over the Indian Ocean (70-90° E) in the first half of June 2002, and propagated eastward from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific. Convective activities were enhanced over the western Pacific (130-160° E) in the latter half of June 2002. Convergence at 1000hPa, which prevailed over the Indian Ocean in the first half of June 2002, propagated eastward to the western Pacific in the latter half of June 2002. Zonal wind observed by EAR and surface pressure observed at the observation site suggested the existence of a Kelvin-wave-like structure of ISV. From temporal variations of TBB, zonal wind at 850hPa, and vertical shear of horizontal wind between 700 and 150hPa, we classified the observation periods into the inactive phase (1-9 June), active phase (10-19 June), and postwesterly wind burst phase of ISV (20-26 June). During the inactive phase of ISV, convective activities caused by local circulation were prominent over Sumatera. Results of radar observations indicated the dominance of convective rainfall events over the mountainous area of Sumatera during the inactive phase of ISV. During the active phase of the ISV, cloud clusters (CCs), which developed in the convective envelope of SCC with a period of 1-2 days, mainly induced the formation of convective activities over Sumatera. Results of radar observations indicated that both convective and stratiform rainfall events occurred over the mountainous area of Sumatera during the active phase of ISV. In the postwesterly wind burst phase of ISV, convective activities were suppressed over Sumatera. Features of convective activities found over Sumatera generally agreed well with those found in Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere/Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). However, local circulation played an important role in the formation of convective activities over Sumatera in the inactive phase of ISV.

Abstract. Surface coastal observations from two automatic weather stations at Paposo (~25° S) and radiosonde observations at Paposo and Iquique (~20° S) were carried out during VOCALS-REx (VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment). Within the coastal marine boundary layer (MBL), sea–land breezes are superimposed on the prevailing southerlies, resulting in light northeasterly winds from midnight to early morning and strong southwesterlies in the afternoon. The prevailing northerlies above the MBL and below the top of the Andes are modulated by the onshore-offshore (zonal) flow forced by the diurnal cycle of surface heating/cooling along the western slope of the Andes. The daytime phase of this diurnal cycle is consistent with an enhanced afternoon coastal subsidence manifested in afternoon warming near the top of the subsidence inversion (~1.8 K at 800 hPa), lowering (~130 m) of its base (top of the MBL), and clearing of coastal Sc (stratocumulus) clouds. Results from a numerical simulation of the atmospheric circulation in a mean zonal cross section over the study area capture the afternoon zonal wind divergence and resulting subsidence of about 2 cm s−1 along a narrow (~10 km) coastal strip maximizing at around 800 hPa. Day-to-day variability in the MBL depth during VOCALS-REx shows sub-synoptic oscillations, aside from two major disruptions in connection with a deep trough and a cutoff low, as described elsewhere. These oscillations are phase-locked to those in sea-level pressure and afternoon alongshore southerlies, as found in connection with coastal lows farther south. From 24-h forward trajectories issued from significant points at the coast and inland at the extremes of the diurnal cycle, it can be concluded that the strong mean daytime Andean pumping prevents any possibility of continental sulfur sources from reaching the free troposphere above the Sc cloud deck in at least a one-day timescale, under mean conditions. Conversely, coastal sources could contribute with sulfur aerosols preferentially in the morning, provided that the weak daytime inland flow becomes partially blocked by the coastal terrain.

Clouds play an important role in the energy and moisture cycle of the earth–atmosphere system, which affects many important processes in nature and human societies. However, there are very few fine-grained and high-precision global cloud climatology data available for high-resolution models. In this paper, we produced a fine-grained (1 km resolution) global land cloud climatology (GLHCC) report based on MOD09 cloud masks from 2001 to 2016, with a temporal resolution of 10 days. The two improvements (short-wave infrared and Band 2/6 ratio threshold method) on the original MOD09 cloud mask have reduced the snow, ice, and bright areas mistakenly classified as clouds. The preliminary cloud products undergo the removal of orbital artifacts by Variational Stationary Noise Remover (VSNR) and the removal of abnormal albedo areas to generate the final cloud climatology data. The new product was directly validated by ground-based cloud observations collected from 3777 global weather stations. PATMOS-X from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and MOD/MYD35 served as comparison products for consistency check of GLHCC. The assessment results show that GLHCC demonstrated a strong correlation with ground station observations, MOD/MYD35, and PATMOS-X. When the ground observations were taken as the truth value, GLHCC and MOD/MYD35 displayed higher accuracy than PATMOS-X. In most selected interested areas where the three behave differently, GLHCC matched the facts better than MOD/MYD35 and PATMOS-X. The GLHCC can well represent the cloud distribution over the past 16 years and will play an important role in the fine-grained demands of many aspects of nature and human society.

AbstractThis paper presents a technique used to empirically classify operationally defined “haze” days in South Korea from 2000 to 2007 into long-range transported (LRT) and stagnant (STG) haze cases. A total of 547 haze days were classified into these two cases by tracking consecutive 6-day synoptic weather charts and air trajectories. The meteorological features associated with long-range transport of haze were identified by contrasting the values of 35 candidate meteorological parameters corresponding to the two types of haze cases. A suitable subset of synoptic variables was then chosen to diagnose the unique meteorological features of each case. The statistical test showed that geostrophic wind speed, vorticity, vorticity advection at a geopotential height of 850 hPa, and the vertical stability index of the lower atmosphere were indicated as highly effective parameters for distinguishing between the LRT and STG cases. The classification accuracies showed 93.2%, 87.8%, 85.4%, and 84.4% for these four variables, respectively. The STG case was well characterized by negative vorticity, with stable atmospheric stability conditions and weak geostrophic wind speed, that is, ~2.8 m s−1 at a geopotential height of 850 hPa, whereas the LRT case had relatively strong geostrophic wind speed, >6 m s−1. For both cases, the location of the anticyclone played an important role in haze occurrence, directly and indirectly. A high pressure system led to stable STG haze with weak ventilation, resulting from upper-atmospheric subsidence. The LRT case was associated with a strong anticyclone that prevailed over southwestern China, maintaining the pressure gradient force that generated the westerly wind that was persistently conducive to downwind long-range transport of haze.

With the growth of cloud computing, the use of the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform to conduct research on water inversion, natural disaster monitoring, and land use change using long time series of Landsat images has also gradually become mainstream. Landsat images are currently one of the most important image data sources for remote sensing inversion. As a result of changes in time and weather conditions in single-view images, varying image radiances are acquired; hence, using a monthly or annual time scale to mosaic multi-view images results in strip color variation. In this study, the NDWI and MNDWI within 50 km of the coastline of the Yucatán Peninsula from 1993 to 2021 are used as the object of study on GEE platform, and mosaic areas with chromatic aberrations are reconstructed using Landsat TOA (top of atmosphere reflectance) and SR (surface reflectance) images as the study data. The DN (digital number) values and probability distributions of the reference image and the image to be restored are classified and counted independently using the random forest algorithm, and the classification results of the reference image are mapped to the area of the image to be restored in a histogram-matching manner. MODIS and Sentinel-2 NDWI products are used for comparison and validation. The results demonstrate that the restored Landsat NDWI and MNDWI images do not exhibit obvious band chromatic aberration, and the image stacking is smoother; the Landsat TOA images provide improved results for the study of water bodies, and the correlation between the restored Landsat SR and TOA images with the Sentinel-2 data is as high as 0.5358 and 0.5269, respectively. In addition, none of the existing Landsat NDWI products in the GEE platform can effectively eliminate the chromatic aberration of image bands.

Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected millions of people worldwide. The infection is mostly spread through the inhalation of infected droplets. Saudi Arabia is a vast country having different climatic conditions. Methods The study evaluated the influence of environmental factors on the spread of COVID-19. Six zones (A to F) were classified depending on the climatic conditions. The study was conducted by retrospective analysis of COVID-19 records from the ministry of health between the months of September 2020 and August 2021. The environmental data such as average temperature (°C), humidity (%), wind speed (m/s) and sun exposure (kwh/m2) were retrieved from official sites. The data was analyzed to determine the effect of these factors on the spread of COVID-19. SPSS IBM 25 software was used to conduct the analysis and p < 0.05 was considered to indicate the significance of the results. Results According to the findings, the rate of infection was greater between April and July 2021. Six climatic zones experienced high temperatures, little humidity, consistent wind flow, and intense sun exposure throughout this time. The correlation study revealed a significant (p < 0.05) relationship between the environmental factors and the spread of COVID-19. The data suggested that during summer condition when the weather is hot, less humid, and steady wind flow with lots of sun exposure, the COVID-19 infection rate got augmented in Saudi Arabia. Poor ventilation and closed-door habitats in an air-conditioned atmosphere during this period could have played a role in human transmission. More research on air quality, population mobility and diseased condition is essential, so that precise proactive measures can be designed to limit the spread of infection in specific climatic seasons.

The capability of Weather Radar to see through the thunder clouds and rain has made it a unique observation tool for remotely surveying the atmosphere. Pulsed radar technique has been applied with remarkable success to map the rain field of various duration and intensities along with movement of storms in real time within the effective detection range of radar. It is a very good tool for forecaster to provide better warning for impending storms and heavy rainfall over the area under radar surveillance and thereby losses due to storm can be minimized while their benefits can be continued like water resource management. In the present work attention has been focused on conducting a comprehensive study of frequencies of occurrence of echoes around Jaisalmer up to 200 km from radar site and the surrounding of it has divided into four equal sectors, i.e., sector-1 (NW, 270°-360° ) , sector-2 (NE, 0°-90°) , sector-3 (SE, 90°-180° ) and sector-4 (SW, 180°-270°). Total number of echoes under the study was 28918 for the period from 19th April, 1993 to 31st December, 2010. Total number of echoes analyzed in Sector-1, were 5441(18.8%), in sector-2, number of echoes analyzed were 9554(33.0%), in sector-3, number of echoes analyzed were 9479 (32.8%) and in sector-4, number of echoes analyzed were 4444(15.4%). Radar echoes to be classified month-wise and the lowest number of average echoes observed in the month of December was 0.4%, in the month of November 0.5%, in October and March 1.6% and in the month of January and February 2.0% .The highest number of annual average echoes observed in the month of July was 30.1% followed by August 24.6%, June 17.2%, May 8.3%, April 6.3% and September 5.8%. Height wise echoes analyzed and the highest number of echoes found for 3 km in all the four sectors were 29.0% and the lowest were for 16 km as 0.2%.

Abstract In the Midwest U.S. Corn Belt, the 1999 and 2000 summer seasons (15 June–15 September) expressed contrasting spatial patterns and magnitudes of precipitation (1999: dry; 2000: normal to moist). Distinct from the numerical modeling approach often used in studies of land surface–climate interactions, a “synoptic climatological” (i.e., stratified composite) approach is applied to observation data (e.g., precipitation, radar, and atmospheric reanalyses) to determine the relative influences of “top-down” synoptic atmospheric circulation (Part I, this paper) and “bottom-up” land surface mesoscale conditions (Part II) on the predominantly convective precipitation variations. Because mesoscale modeling suggests that the free-atmosphere wind speed (“background wind”) regulates the land surface–atmosphere mesoscale interaction, each day’s spatial range of wind speed at 500 hPa [V(500)] over the Central Corn Belt (CCB) is classified into one of five categories ranging from “weak flow” to “jet maximum.” Deep convective activity (i.e., presence/absence and morphological signature type) is determined for each afternoon and early evening period from the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) imagery. Frequencies of the resulting background wind–convection joint occurrence types for the 1999 and 2000 summer seasons are examined in the context of the statistics determined for summers in the longer period of 1996–2001, and also compose categories for which NCEP–NCAR reanalysis (NNR) fields are averaged to yield synoptic composite environments for the two study seasons. The latter composites are compared visually with high-resolution (spatial) composites of precipitation to help identify the influence of top-down climate controls. The analysis confirms that reduced (increased) organization of radar-indicated deep convection tends to occur with weaker (stronger) background flow. The summers of 1999 and 2000 differ from one another in terms of background flow and convective activity, but more so with respect to the six-summer averages, indicating that a fuller explanation of the precipitation differences in the two summers must be sought in the analysis of additional synoptic meteorological variables. The composite synoptic conditions on convection (CV) days (no convection (NC) days) in 1999 and 2000 are generalized as follows: low pressure incoming from the west (high pressure or ridging), southerly (northerly) lower-tropospheric winds, positive (negative) anomalies of moisture in the lower troposphere, rising (sinking) air in the midtroposphere, and a location south of the upper-tropospheric jet maximum (absence of an upper-tropospheric jet or one located just south of the area). Features resembling the “northerly low-level jets” identified in previous studies for the Great Plains are present on some NC-day composites. On CV days the spatial synchronization of synoptic features implying baroclinity increases with increasing background wind speed. The CV and NC composites differ least on days of weaker flow, and there are small areas within the CCB having no obvious association between precipitation elevated amounts and synoptic circulation features favoring the upward motion of air. These spatial incongruities imply a contributory influence of “stationary” (i.e., climatic) land surface mesoscale processes in convective activity, which are examined in Part II.

Abstract. The Sentinel-5P TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) instrument, launched in October 2017, provides unique observations of atmospheric trace gases at a high resolution of about 5 km, with near-daily global coverage, resolving individual sources like thermal powerplants, industrial complexes, fires, medium-scale towns, roads, and shipping routes. Even though Sentinel-5P (S5P) is a global mission, these datasets are especially well suited to test high-resolution regional-scale air quality (AQ) models and provide valuable input for emission inversion systems. In Europe, the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) has implemented an operational regional AQ forecasting capability based on an ensemble of several European models, available at a resolution of 0.1∘ × 0.1∘. In this paper, we present comparisons between TROPOMI observations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and the CAMS AQ forecasts and analyses of NO2. We discuss the different ways of making these comparisons and present quantitative results in the form of maps for individual days, summer and winter months, and a time series for European subregions and cities between May 2018 and March 2021. The CAMS regional products generally capture the fine-scale daily and averaged features observed by TROPOMI in much detail. In summer, the comparison shows a close agreement between TROPOMI and the CAMS ensemble NO2 tropospheric columns with a relative difference of up to 15 % for most European cities. In winter, however, we find a significant discrepancy in the column amounts over much of Europe, with relative differences up to 50 %. The possible causes for these differences are discussed, focusing on the possible impact of retrieval and modeling errors. Apart from comparisons with the CAMS ensemble, we also present results for comparisons with the individual CAMS models for selected months. Furthermore, we demonstrate the importance of the free tropospheric contribution to the estimation of the tropospheric column and thus include profile information from the CAMS configuration of the ECMWF's (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) global integrated model above 3 km altitude in the comparisons. We also show that replacing the global 1∘ × 1∘ a priori information in the retrieval by the regional 0.1∘ × 0.1∘ resolution profiles of CAMS leads to significant changes in the TROPOMI-retrieved tropospheric column, with typical increases at the emission hotspots up to 30 % and smaller increases or decreases elsewhere. As a spinoff, we present a new TROPOMI NO2 level 2 (L2) data product for Europe, based on the replacement of the original TM5-MP generated global a priori profile by the regional CAMS ensemble profile. This European NO2 product is compared with ground-based remote sensing measurements of six Pandora instruments of the Pandonia Global Network and nine Multi-AXis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) instruments. As compared to the standard S5P tropospheric NO2 column data, the overall bias of the new product for all except two stations is 5 % to 12 % smaller, owing to a reduction in the multiplicative bias. Compared to the CAMS tropospheric NO2 columns, dispersion and correlation parameters with respect to the standard data are, however, superior.

Indonesia's climate classification is divided into three rainfall patterns. The three patterns are Seasonal Pattern, Equatorial Pattern, and Local Pattern (Anti Seasonal). Flood Disaster Management based on extreme rainfall is very much needed, as the analysis was taken as a case study on January 22, 2019, a flood disaster occurred in South Sulawesi. The flood event indicated that there was heavy rain that flushed the South Sulawesi region for several days, which is classified as monsoonal rainfall. This study aims to analyze the characteristics of heavy rain with atmospheric anomalies during these events by calculating rainfall intensity to determine future flooding patterns and using the WRF model to analyze cloud distribution patterns and rainfall distribution. The method used in this research is Mononobe and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) using the Fabric Fritsch cumulus parameterization scheme. The analysis showed that the intensity and duration of rainfall of 2, 5 10, 25, and 50 years were obtained from the Mononobe model, as well as from the atmospheric dynamics data, there was rain for 3 consecutive days caused by cumulonimbus type rain clouds. Based on the WRF model, it can be seen that the CAPE value before the onset of rain is quite significant, thus supporting the growth of rain clouds as an important variable in flood disaster management in the South Sulawesi region in particular and the tropical zone in. general. Motivation/Background: Indonesia is included in a tropical climate where extreme rainfall is important to analyze. The majority of flood disasters in the tropics occur in decades of extreme atmosphere, this is an important reason in this study. Method: The Mononobe method can be used to calculate the distribution pattern of rainfall intensity throughout 2, 5, 10, 25, and 50 years, as a prediction of future rainfall intensity patterns. The WRF model is used to calculate the cloud distribution pattern and the spatial distribution of rainfall. Results: The results of this study obtained patterns of rainfall intensity and duration of 2, 5, 10, 25, and 50 years from the Mononobe model, as well as from the atmospheric dynamics data, there was rain for 3 consecutive days caused by cumulonimbus rain clouds. The pattern of cloud distribution and rainfall at the time of the incident at the WRF model research location. Conclusions: Analysis of the distribution pattern of rainfall intensity for the periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, and 50 years, as well as the distribution pattern of clouds and rainfall, is very necessary for disaster identification, especially hydrometeorology. This is very important as a variable in flood disaster management, especially in the tropics

<p>A seca é um fenômeno natural que o ser humano não consegue impedir que ocorra. Nesse sentido, a presente pesquisa tem por objetivo, analisar o comportamento do regime hídrico do município de Patos interior da Paraíba, no período de 1994 a 2009 utilizando o IAC. Para o desenvolvimento da pesquisa, realizou-se um levantamento pluviométrico de 15 anos obtidos no site da Agência Executiva de Gestão das Águas da Paraíba (AESA) de 1994 a 2009. Os dados foram disponibilizados em planilha eletrônica do Microsoft Excel com informações diárias, mensais e anuais e por último foi analisado o comportamento das precipitações através do Índice de Anomalia de Chuva (IAC), que é bastante simples e empregado para avaliação dos períodos secos ou úmidos. Pelo o estudo observou-se que apenas 2009 apresentou um mês (abril), como extremamente úmido e os demais anos foram classificados como muito úmidos, úmidos e secos. O ano mais seco foi 1998 que apresentou anomalias negativas de fevereiro a maio, seguido de 1999 com anomalias negativas em fevereiro e abril do período chuvoso. Dos resultados se percebe que as principais chuvas que ocorrem sob a região estudada caem sobre a terra de forma mal distribuída e irregular, e que o índice pluviométrico da região, se comparado com outras regiões áridas do planeta, o semiárido paraibano é um dos que mais chove em todo mundo, deixando claro que a falta de água que assola os nordestinos são decorrentes das características das chuvas. Percebe-se que apenas 2009 apresentou mês tido como extremamente úmido e isso não é caraterístico da região, devendo-se, sobretudo a modelos de estabilização da atmosfera por eventos meteorológicos que provocaram as chuvas fora do período chuvoso de Patos.</p><p><strong> </strong></p><p align="center"><strong><em>Analysis of water regime of Patos-PB through Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI)</em></strong></p><p><strong>Abstract</strong><strong>: </strong>Drought is a natural phenomenon that humans can't prevent that from occurring. In this sense, this research aims to analyze the behavior of the water regime of the first five months of the year in the city of Patos, Paraíba interior, in the period from 1994 to 2009 using the IAC. For the development of research, conducted a survey of 15-year rainfall obtained on the website of the Executive Agency for the management of Waters of Paraíba (EASA) of 1994 to 2009. The data were provided in Excel spreadsheet with daily, monthly and annual information and finally was analyzed the behavior of precipitation through the rain Anomaly index (IAC), which is quite simple and is employed to evaluate the dry or humid periods. By the study noted that only 2009 presented a month (April), as extremely moist and the remaining years were classified as humid, wet and dry. The driest year was 1998 that presented negative anomalies from February to may, followed by 1999 with negative anomalies in February and April of the rainy season. The results one realizes that the main rains that occur in the region studied falls on the earth so poorly distributed and irregular, and the rainfall in the region, compared with other arid regions of planets, the semi-arid region Brazil is one of the more it rains all over the world, making it clear that the lack of water in the Northeast are due to the characteristics of the rains. One realizes that only 2009 presented month had as extremely moist and this is not characteristic of the region, and especially the stabilization models of the atmosphere for weather events that caused the rains outside the rainy season of Ducks.</p>

Data mining is the application of examining large current databases in sequence to create new information. It is a classification of artificial intelligence build on the concept that systems can get from data, analyze patterns and make judgment with minimal human intervention. The forecast of air quality is done with analyzing the AQI (Air Quality Index) of the atmosphere in different areas. These predictions are done using the BP Neural network Algorithm in which the data of the gases like CO2, CO, SO2, O3, NO2, PM2.5 etc. is first classified in the system, and then the normality is checked by comparison of each gases with the normality. But the prediction cannot be fully excepted because it doesn’t consider the outside weather condition of the atmosphere. This paper uses the ANN (Artificial Neural Network) technique along with BP Neural Network which analysis the weather condition of the atmosphere along with the data of the polluted gases. This paper predict more efficient air quality index of the atmosphere.

Abstract Initialization methods are needed for geophysical components of earth-system prediction models. These methods are needed from medium-range to decadal predictions and also for short-range earth-system forecasts in support of safety (e.g., severe weather), economic (e.g., energy), and other applications. Strongly coupled land-atmosphere data assimilation (SCDA), producing balanced initial conditions across the land-atmosphere components, has not yet been introduced to operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Most NWP systems have evolved separate data assimilation (DA) procedures for the atmosphere vs. land/snow system components. This separated method has been classified as a weakly coupled DA system (WCDA). In the NOAA operational short-range weather models, a moderately coupled land/snow-atmosphere assimilation method (MCLDA) has been implemented, a step forward from WCDA towards SCDA. The atmosphere and land (including snow) variables are both updated within the DA using the same set of observations (e.g., aircraft, radiosonde, satellite radiances, surface, etc.). Using this assimilation method, land-surface state variables have cycled continuously for 6 years since 2015 for the 3-km NOAA HRRR model and with CONUS cycling since 1997. Month-long experiments were conducted with and without MCLDA for both winter and summer seasons using the 13-km Rapid Refresh model with atmosphere (50 levels), soil (9 levels) and snow (up to 2 layers if present) on the same horizontal grid. Improvements were evident for 2-m temperature for all times of day out to 6-12h for both seasons but stronger in winter. Better temperature forecasts were also shown in the 1000-900 hPa layer corresponding roughly to the boundary layer.

AbstractCold conditions in the upper layer of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, at a time of pervasive warming elsewhere, have provoked significant debate. Uncertainty arises both from potential causes (surface heat loss and ocean circulation changes) and characteristic timescales (interannual to multidecadal). Resolution of these uncertainties is important as cold conditions have been linked to recent European weather extremes and a decline in the Atlantic overturning circulation. Using observations, supported by high resolution climate model analysis, we show that a surprisingly active ocean regularly generates both cold and warm interannual anomalies in addition to those generated by surface heat exchange. Furthermore, we identify distinct sea surface temperature patterns that characterise whether the ocean or atmosphere has the strongest influence in a particular year. Applying these new insights to observations, we find an increasing role for the ocean in setting North Atlantic mixed layer heat content variability since 1960.

Abstract As offshore wind power is continuously integrated into the electric power systems in around the world, it is critical to understand its variability. Weather regimes (WRs) can provide meteorological explanations for fluctuations in wind power. Instead of relying on traditional large-scale circulation WRs, this study focuses on assessing the dependency of wind resources on WRs in the tailored region clustered based on the finer spatial scale. For this purpose, we have applied self-organizing map algorithm (SOM) to cluster atmospheric circulations over the South China Sea (SCS) and characterized wind resources for the classified WRs. Results show that WRs at mesoscale can effectively capture weather systems driving wind power production variability, especially on multi-day timescale. Capacity factor reconstruction during four seasons illustrates that WRs highly influence most areas in winter and southern part of SCS in summer, and WRs can serve as a critical source of predicting the potential of wind resources. In addition, we further qualify the wind power intermittency and complementarity under different WRs, which have not been assessed associated with WRs. During WRs with changeable atmosphere conditions, the high complementarity over coastal areas can reduce the impact of intermittency on wind power generation. The proposed approach is able to be implemented in any region and may benefit wind resource evaluation and characterization.

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are highly dynamic events originating in the solar atmosphere, that show a wide range of kinematic properties and are the major drivers of the space weather. The angular width of the CMEs is a crucial parameter in the study of their kinematics. The fact that whether slow and fast CMEs (as based on their relative speed to the average solar wind speed) are associated with different processes at the location of their ejection is still debatable. Thus, in this study, we investigate their angular width to understand the differences between the slow and fast CMEs. We study the width distribution of slow and fast CMEs and find that they follow different power law distributions, with a power law indices (α) of –1.1 and –3.7 for fast and slow CMEs respectively. To reduce the projection effects, we further restrict our analysis to only limb events as derived from manual catalog and we find similar results. We then associate the slow and fast CMEs to their source regions, and classified the sources as Active Regions (ARs) and Prominence Eruptions. We find that slow and fast CMEs coming from ARs and PEs, also follow different power laws in their width distributions. This clearly hints toward a possibility that different mechanisms might be involved in the width expansion of slow and fast CMEs coming from different sources.These results are also crucial from the space weather perspective since the width of the CME is an important factor in that aspect.

IntroductionTasmania hangs from the map of Australia like a drop in freefall from the substance of the mainland. Often the whole state is mislaid from Australian maps and logos (Reddit). Tasmania has, at least since federation, been considered peripheral—a region seen as isolated, a ‘problem’ economically, politically, and culturally. However, Tasmania not only cleaves to the ‘north island’ of Australia but is also subject to the gravitational pull of an even greater land mass—Antarctica. In this article, we upturn the political conventions of map-making that place both Antarctica and Tasmania in obscure positions at the base of the globe. We show how a changing global climate re-frames Antarctica and the Southern Ocean as key drivers of worldwide environmental shifts. The liquid and solid water between Tasmania and Antarctica is revealed not as a homogenous barrier, but as a dynamic and relational medium linking the Tasmanian archipelago with Antarctica. When Antarctica becomes the focus, the script is flipped: Tasmania is no longer on the edge, but core to a network of gateways into the southern land. The state’s capital of Hobart can from this perspective be understood as an “Antarctic city”, central to the geopolitics, economy, and culture of the frozen continent (Salazar et al.). Viewed from the south, we argue, Tasmania is not a problem, but an opportunity for a form of ecological, cultural, economic, and political sustainability that opens up the southern continent to science, discovery, and imagination.A Centre at the End of the Earth? Tasmania as ParadoxThe islands of Tasmania owe their existence to climate change: a period of warming at the end of the last ice age melted the vast sheets of ice covering the polar regions, causing sea levels to rise by more than one hundred metres (Tasmanian Climate Change Office 8). Eleven thousand years ago, Aboriginal people would have witnessed the rise of what is now called Bass Strait, turning what had been a peninsula into an archipelago, with the large island of Tasmania at its heart. The heterogeneous practices and narratives of Tasmanian regional identity have been shaped by the geography of these islands, and their connection to the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. Regions, understood as “centres of collective consciousness and sociospatial identities” (Paasi 241) are constantly reproduced and reimagined through place-based social practices and communications over time. As we will show, diverse and contradictory narratives of Tasmanian regionality often co-exist, interacting in complex and sometimes complementary ways. Ecocritical literary scholar C.A. Cranston considers duality to be embedded in the textual construction of Tasmania, writing “it was hell, it was heaven, it was penal, it was paradise” (29). Tasmania is multiply polarised: it is both isolated and connected; close and far away; rich in resources and poor in capital; the socially conservative birthplace of radical green politics (Hay 60). The weather, as if sensing the fine balance of these paradoxes, blows hot and cold at a moment’s notice.Tasmania has wielded extraordinary political influence at times in its history—notably during the settlement of Melbourne in 1835 (Boyce), and during protests against damming the Franklin River in the early 1980s (Mercer). However, twentieth-century historical and political narratives of Tasmania portray the Bass Strait as a barrier, isolating Tasmanians from the mainland (Harwood 61). Sir Bede Callaghan, who headed one of a long line of federal government inquiries into “the Tasmanian problem” (Harwood 106), was clear that Tasmania was a victim of its own geography:the major disability facing the people of Tasmania (although some residents may consider it an advantage) is that Tasmania is an island. Separation from the mainland adversely affects the economy of the State and the general welfare of the people in many ways. (Callaghan 3)This perspective may stem from the fact that Tasmania has maintained the lowest Gross Domestic Product per capita of all states since federation (Bureau of Infrastructure Transport and Regional Economics 9). Socially, economically, and culturally, Tasmania consistently ranks among the worst regions of Australia. Statistical comparisons with other parts of Australia reveal the population’s high unemployment, low wages, poor educational outcomes, and bad health (West 31). The state’s remoteness and isolation from the mainland states and its reliance on federal income have contributed to the whole of Tasmania, including Hobart, being classified as ‘regional’ by the Australian government, in an attempt to promote immigration and economic growth (Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development 1). Tasmania is indeed both regional and remote. However, in this article we argue that, while regionality may be cast as a disadvantage, the island’s remote location is also an asset, particularly when viewed from a far southern perspective (Image 1).Image 1: Antarctica (Orthographic Projection). Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons, Modified Shading of Tasmania and Addition of Captions by H. Nielsen.Connecting Oceans/Collapsing DistanceTasmania and Antarctica have been closely linked in the past—the future archipelago formed a land bridge between Antarctica and northern land masses until the opening of the Tasman Seaway some 32 million years ago (Barker et al.). The far south was tangible to the Indigenous people of the island in the weather blowing in from the Southern Ocean, while the southern lights, or “nuyina”, formed a visible connection (Australia’s new icebreaker vessel is named RSV Nuyina in recognition of these links). In the contemporary Australian imagination, Tasmania tends to be defined by its marine boundaries, the sea around the islands represented as flat, empty space against which to highlight the topography of its landscape and the isolation of its position (Davies et al.). A more relational geographic perspective illuminates the “power of cross-currents and connections” (Stratford et al. 273) across these seascapes. The sea country of Tasmania is multiple and heterogeneous: the rough, shallow waters of the island-scattered Bass Strait flow into the Tasman Sea, where the continental shelf descends toward an abyssal plain studded with volcanic seamounts. To the south, the Southern Ocean provides nutrient-rich upwellings that attract fish and cetacean populations. Tasmania’s coast is a dynamic, liminal space, moving and changing in response to the global currents that are driven by the shifting, calving and melting ice shelves and sheets in Antarctica.Oceans have long been a medium of connection between Tasmania and Antarctica. In the early colonial period, when the seas were the major thoroughfares of the world and inland travel was treacherous and slow, Tasmania’s connection with the Southern Ocean made it a valuable hub for exploration and exploitation of the south. Between 1642 and 1900, early European explorers were followed by British penal colonists, convicts, sealers, and whalers (Kriwoken and Williamson 93). Tasmania was well known to polar explorers, with expeditions led by Jules Dumont d’Urville, James Clark Ross, Roald Amundsen, and Douglas Mawson all transiting through the port of Hobart. Now that the city is no longer a whaling hub, growing populations of cetaceans continue to migrate past the islands on their annual journeys from the tropics, across the Sub-Antarctic Front and Antarctic circumpolar current, and into the south polar region, while southern species such as leopard seals are occasionally seen around Tasmania (Tasmania Parks and Wildlife). Although the water surrounding Tasmania and Antarctica is at times homogenised as a ‘barrier’, rendering these places isolated, the bodies of water that surround both are in fact permeable, and regularly crossed by both humans and marine species. The waters are diverse in their physical characteristics, underlying topography, sea life, and relationships, and serve to connect many different ocean regions, ecosystems, and weather patterns.Views from the Far SouthWhen considered in terms of its relative proximity to Antarctic, rather than its distance from Australia’s political and economic centres, Tasmania’s identity undergoes a significant shift. A sign at Cockle Creek, in the state’s far south, reminds visitors that they are closer to Antarctica than to Cairns, invoking a discourse of connectedness that collapses the standard ten-day ship voyage to Australia’s closest Antarctic station into a unit comparable with the routinely scheduled 5.5 hour flight to North Queensland. Hobart is the logistical hub for the Australian Antarctic Division and the French Institut Polaire Francais (IPEV), and has hosted Antarctic vessels belonging to the USA, South Korea, and Japan in recent years. From a far southern perspective, Hobart is not a regional Australian capital but a global polar hub. This alters the city’s geographic imaginary not only in a latitudinal sense—from “top down” to “bottom up”—but also a longitudinal one. Via its southward connection to Antarctica, Hobart is also connected east and west to four other recognized gateways: Cape Town in South Africa, Christchurch in New Zealand; Punta Arenas in Chile; and Ushuaia in Argentina (Image 2). The latter cities are considered small by international standards, but play an outsized role in relation to Antarctica.Image 2: H. Nielsen with a Sign Announcing Distances between Antarctic ‘Gateway’ Cities and Antarctica, Ushuaia, Argentina, 2018. Image Credit: Nicki D'Souza.These five cities form what might be called—to adapt geographer Klaus Dodds’ term—a ‘Southern Rim’ around the South Polar region (Dodds Geopolitics). They exist in ambiguous relationship to each other. Although the five cities signed a Statement of Intent in 2009 committing them to collaboration, they continue to compete vigorously for northern hemisphere traffic and the brand identity of the most prominent global gateway. A state government brochure spruiks Hobart, for example, as the “perfect Antarctic Gateway” emphasising its uniqueness and “natural advantages” in this regard (Tasmanian Government, 2016). In practice, the cities are automatically differentiated by their geographic position with respect to Antarctica. Although the ‘ice continent’ is often conceived as one entity, it too has regions, in both scientific and geographical senses (Terauds and Lee; Antonello). Hobart provides access to parts of East Antarctica, where the Australian, French, Japanese, and Chinese programs (among others) have bases; Cape Town is a useful access point for Europeans going to Dronning Maud Land; Christchurch is closest to the Ross Sea region, site of the largest US base; and Punta Arenas and Ushuaia neighbour the Antarctic Peninsula, home to numerous bases as well as a thriving tourist industry.The Antarctic sector is important to the Tasmanian economy, contributing $186 million (AUD) in 2017/18 (Wells; Gutwein; Tasmanian Polar Network). Unsurprisingly, Tasmania’s gateway brand has been actively promoted, with the 2016 Australian Antarctic Strategy and 20 Year Action Plan foregrounding the need to “Build Tasmania’s status as the premier East Antarctic Gateway for science and operations” and the state government releasing a “Tasmanian Antarctic Gateway Strategy” in 2017. The Chinese Antarctic program has been a particular focus: a Memorandum of Understanding focussed on Australia and China’s Antarctic relations includes a “commitment to utilise Australia, including Tasmania, as an Antarctic ‘gateway’.” (Australian Antarctic Division). These efforts towards a closer relationship with China have more recently come under attack as part of a questioning of China’s interests in the region (without, it should be noted, a concomitant questioning of Australia’s own considerable interests) (Baker 9). In these exchanges, a global power and a state of Australia generally classed as regional and peripheral are brought into direct contact via the even more remote Antarctic region. This connection was particularly visible when Chinese President Xi Jinping travelled to Hobart in 2014, in a visit described as both “strategic” and “incongruous” (Burden). There can be differences in how this relationship is narrated to domestic and international audiences, with issues of sovereignty and international cooperation variously foregrounded, laying the ground for what Dodds terms “awkward Antarctic nationalism” (1).Territory and ConnectionsThe awkwardness comes to a head in Tasmania, where domestic and international views of connections with the far south collide. Australia claims sovereignty over almost 6 million km2 of the Antarctic continent—a claim that in area is “roughly the size of mainland Australia minus Queensland” (Bergin). This geopolitical context elevates the importance of a regional part of Australia: the claims to Antarctic territory (which are recognised only by four other claimant nations) are performed not only in Antarctic localities, where they are made visible “with paraphernalia such as maps, flags, and plaques” (Salazar 55), but also in Tasmania, particularly in Hobart and surrounds. A replica of Mawson’s Huts in central Hobart makes Australia’s historic territorial interests in Antarctica visible an urban setting, foregrounding the figure of Douglas Mawson, the well-known Australian scientist and explorer who led the expeditions that proclaimed Australia’s sovereignty in the region of the continent roughly to its south (Leane et al.). Tasmania is caught in a balancing act, as it fosters international Antarctic connections (such hosting vessels from other national programs), while also playing a key role in administering what is domestically referred to as the Australian Antarctic Territory. The rhetoric of protection can offer common ground: island studies scholar Godfrey Baldacchino notes that as island narratives have moved “away from the perspective of the ‘explorer-discoverer-colonist’” they have been replaced by “the perspective of the ‘custodian-steward-environmentalist’” (49), but reminds readers that a colonising disposition still lurks beneath the surface. It must be remembered that terms such as “stewardship” and “leadership” can undertake sovereignty labour (Dodds “Awkward”), and that Tasmania’s Antarctic connections can be mobilised for a range of purposes. When Environment Minister Greg Hunt proclaimed at a press conference that: “Hobart is the gateway to the Antarctic for the future” (26 Apr. 2016), the remark had meaning within discourses of both sovereignty and economics. Tasmania’s capital was leveraged as a way to position Australia as a leader in the Antarctic arena.From ‘Gateway’ to ‘Antarctic City’While discussion of Antarctic ‘Gateway’ Cities often focuses on the economic and logistical benefit of their Antarctic connections, Hobart’s “gateway” identity, like those of its counterparts, stretches well beyond this, encompassing geological, climatic, historical, political, cultural and scientific links. Even the southerly wind, according to cartoonist Jon Kudelka, “has penguins in it” (Image 3). Hobart residents feel a high level of connection to Antarctica. In 2018, a survey of 300 randomly selected residents of Greater Hobart was conducted under the umbrella of the “Antarctic Cities” Australian Research Council Linkage Project led by Assoc. Prof. Juan Francisco Salazar (and involving all three present authors). Fourteen percent of respondents reported having been involved in an economic activity related to Antarctica, and 36% had attended a cultural event about Antarctica. Connections between the southern continent and Hobart were recognised as important: 71.9% agreed that “people in my city can influence the cultural meanings that shape our relationship to Antarctica”, while 90% agreed or strongly agreed that Hobart should play a significant role as a custodian of Antarctica’s future, and 88.4% agreed or strongly agreed that: “How we treat Antarctica is a test of our approach to ecological sustainability.” Image 3: “The Southerly” Demonstrates How Weather Connects Hobart and Antarctica. Image Credit: Jon Kudelka, Reproduced with Permission.Hobart, like the other gateways, activates these connections in its conscious place-branding. The city is particularly strong as a centre of Antarctic research: signs at the cruise-ship terminal on the waterfront claim that “There are more Antarctic scientists based in Hobart […] than at any other one place on earth, making Hobart a globally significant contributor to our understanding of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean.” Researchers are based at the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), and the Australian Antarctic Division (AAD), with several working between institutions. Many Antarctic researchers located elsewhere in the world also have a connection with the place through affiliations and collaborations, leading journalist Jo Chandler to assert that “the breadth and depth of Hobart’s knowledge of ice, water, and the life forms they nurture […] is arguably unrivalled anywhere in the world” (86).Hobart also plays a significant role in Antarctica’s governance, as the site of the secretariats for the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) and the Agreement on the Conservation of Albatrosses and Petrels (ACAP), and as host of the Antarctic Consultative Treaty Meetings on more than one occasion (1986, 2012). The cultural domain is active, with Tasmanian Museum and Art Gallery (TMAG) featuring a permanent exhibit, “Islands to Ice”, emphasising the ocean as connecting the two places; the Mawson’s Huts Replica Museum aiming (among other things) to “highlight Hobart as the gateway to the Antarctic continent for the Asia Pacific region”; and a biennial Australian Antarctic Festival drawing over twenty thousand visitors, about a sixth of them from interstate or overseas (Hingley). Antarctic links are evident in the city’s natural and built environment: the dolerite columns of Mt Wellington, the statue of the Tasmanian Antarctic explorer Louis Bernacchi on the waterfront, and the wharfs that regularly accommodate icebreakers such as the Aurora Australis and the Astrolabe. Antarctica is figured as a southern neighbour; as historian Tom Griffiths puts it, Tasmanians “grow up with Antarctica breathing down their necks” (5). As an Antarctic City, Hobart mediates access to Antarctica both physically and in the cultural imaginary.Perhaps in recognition of the diverse ways in which a region or a city might be connected to Antarctica, researchers have recently been suggesting critical approaches to the ‘gateway’ label. C. Michael Hall points to a fuzziness in the way the term is applied, noting that it has drifted from its initial definition (drawn from economic geography) as denoting an access and supply point to a hinterland that produces a certain level of economic benefits. While Hall looks to keep the term robustly defined to avoid empty “local boosterism” (272–73), Gabriela Roldan aims to move the concept “beyond its function as an entry and exit door”, arguing that, among other things, the local community should be actively engaged in the Antarctic region (57). Leane, examining the representation of Hobart as a gateway in historical travel texts, concurs that “ingress and egress” are insufficient descriptors of Tasmania’s relationship with Antarctica, suggesting that at least discursively the island is positioned as “part of an Antarctic rim, itself sharing qualities of the polar region” (45). The ARC Linkage Project described above, supported by the Hobart City Council, the State Government and the University of Tasmania, as well as other national and international partners, aims to foster the idea of the Hobart and its counterparts as ‘Antarctic cities’ whose citizens act as custodians for the South Polar region, with a genuine concern for and investment in its future.Near and Far: Local Perspectives A changing climate may once again herald a shift in the identity of the Tasmanian islands. Recognition of the central role of Antarctica in regulating the global climate has generated scientific and political re-evaluation of the region. Antarctica is not only the planet’s largest heat sink but is the engine of global water currents and wind patterns that drive weather patterns and biodiversity across the world (Convey et al. 543). For example, Tas van Ommen’s research into Antarctic glaciology shows the tangible connection between increased snowfall in coastal East Antarctica and patterns of drought southwest Western Australia (van Ommen and Morgan). Hobart has become a global centre of marine and Antarctic science, bringing investment and development to the city. As the global climate heats up, Tasmania—thanks to its low latitude and southerly weather patterns—is one of the few regions in Australia likely to remain temperate. This is already leading to migration from the mainland that is impacting house prices and rental availability (Johnston; Landers 1). The region’s future is therefore closely entangled with its proximity to the far south. Salazar writes that “we cannot continue to think of Antarctica as the end of the Earth” (67). Shifting Antarctica into focus also brings Tasmania in from the margins. As an Antarctic city, Hobart assumes a privileged positioned on the global stage. This allows the city to present itself as central to international research efforts—in contrast to domestic views of the place as a small regional capital. The city inhabits dual identities; it is both on the periphery of Australian concerns and at the centre of Antarctic activity. Tasmania, then, is not in freefall, but rather at the forefront of a push to recognise Antarctica as entangled with its neighbours to the north.AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by the Australian Research Council under LP160100210.ReferencesAntonello, Alessandro. “Finding Place in Antarctica.” Antarctica and the Humanities. Eds. Peder Roberts, Lize-Marie van der Watt, and Adrian Howkins. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2016. 181–204.Australian Government. 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Story spreads out through time the behaviors or bodies – the shapes – a self has been or will be, each replacing the one before. Hence a story has before and after, gain and loss. It goes somewhere…Moreover, shape or body is crucial, not incidental, to story. It carries story; it makes story visible; in a sense it is story. Shape (or visible body) is in space what story is in time. (Bynum, quoted in Garland Thomson, 113-114) Drawing on Goffman’s classic work on stigma, research documenting the existence of discrimination and bias against individuals classified as obese goes back five decades. Since Cahnman published “The Stigma of Obesity” in 1968, other researchers have well documented systematic and growing discrimination against fat people (cf. Puhl and Brownell; Puhl and Heuer; Puhl and Heuer; Fikkan and Rothblum). While weight-based stereotyping has a long history (Chang and Christakis; McPhail; Schwartz), contemporary forms of anti-fat stigma and discrimination must be understood within a social and economic context of neoliberal healthism. By neoliberal healthism (see Crawford; Crawford; Metzel and Kirkland), I refer to the set of discourses that suggest that humans are rational, self-determining actors who independently make their own best choices and are thus responsible for their life chances and health outcomes. In such a context, good health becomes associated with proper selfhood, and there are material and social consequences for those who either unwell or perceived to be unwell. While the greatest impacts of size-based discrimination are structural in nature, the interpersonal impacts are also significant. Because obesity is commonly represented (at least partially) as a matter of behavioral choices in public health, medicine, and media, to “remain fat” is to invite commentary from others that one is lacking in personal responsibility. Guthman suggests that this lack of empathy “also stems from the growing perception that obesity presents a social cost, made all the more tenable when the perception of health responsibility has been reversed from a welfare model” (1126). Because weight loss is commonly held to be a reasonable and feasible goal and yet is nearly impossible to maintain in practice (Kassierer and Angell; Mann et al.; Puhl and Heuer), fat people are “in effect, asked to do the impossible and then socially punished for failing” (Greenhalgh, 474). In this article, I explore how weight-based stigma shaped the decisions of bariatric patients to undergo weight loss surgery. In doing so, I underline the work that emotion does in circulating anti-fat stigma and in creating categories of subjects along lines of health and responsibility. As well, I highlight how fat bodies are lived and negotiated in space and place. I then explore ways in which participants take up notions of time, specifically in regard to risk, in discussing what brought them to the decision to have bariatric surgery. I conclude by arguing that it is a dynamic interaction between the material, social, emotional, discursive, and the temporal that produces not only fat embodiment, but fat subjectivity “failed”, and serves as an impetus for seeking bariatric surgery. Methods This article is based on 30 semi-structured interviews with American bariatric patients. At the time of the interview, individuals were between six months and 12 years out from surgery. After obtaining Intuitional Review Board approval, recruitment occurred through a snowball sample. All interviews were audio-taped with permission and verbatim interview transcripts were analyzed by means of a thematic analysis using Dedoose (www.dedoose.com). All names given in this article are pseudonyms. This work is part of a larger project that includes two additional interviews with bariatric surgeons as well as participant-observation research. Findings Navigating Anti-Fat Stigma In discussing what it was like to be fat, all but one of the individuals I interviewed discussed experiencing substantive size-based stigma and discrimination. Whether through overt comments, indirect remarks, dirty looks, open gawking, or being ignored and unrecognized, participants felt hurt, angry, and shamed by friends, family, coworkers, medical providers, and strangers on the street because of the size of their bodies. Several recalled being bullied and even physically assaulted by peers as children. Many described the experience of being fat or very fat as one of simultaneous hypervisibility and invisibility. One young woman, Kaia, said: “I absolutely was not treated like a person … . I was just like this object to people. Just this big, you know, thing. That’s how people treated me.” Nearly all of my participants described being told repeatedly by others, including medical professionals, that their inability to lose weight was effectively a failure of the will. They found these comments to be particularly hurtful because, in fact, they had spent years, even decades, trying to lose weight only to gain the weight back plus more. Some providers and family members seemed to take up the idea that shame could be a motivating force in weight loss. However, as research by Lewis et al.; Puhl and Huerer; and Schafer and Ferraro has demonstrated, the effect this had was the opposite of what was intended. Specifically, a number of the individuals I spoke with delayed care and avoided health-facilitating behaviors, like exercising, because of the discrimination they had experienced. Instead, they turned to health-harming practices, like crash dieting. Moreover, the internalization of shame and blame served to lower a sense of self-worth for many participants. And despite having a strong sense that something outside of personal behavior explained their escalating body weights, they deeply internalized messages about responsibility and self-control. Danielle, for instance, remarked: “Why could the one thing I want the most be so impossible for me to maintain?” It is important to highlight the work that emotion does in circulating such experiences of anti-fat stigma and discrimination. As Fraser et al have argued in their discussion on fat and emotion, the social, the emotional, and the corporeal cannot be separated. Drawing on Ahmed, they argue that strong emotions are neither interior psychological states that work between individuals nor societal states that impact individuals. Rather, emotions are constitutive of subjects and collectivities, (Ahmed; Fraser et al.). Negative emotions in particular, such as hate and fear, produce categories of people, by defining them as a common threat and, in the process, they also create categories of people who are deemed legitimate and those who are not. Thus following Fraser et al, it is possible to see that anti-fat hatred did more than just negatively impact the individuals I spoke with. Rather, it worked to produce, differentiate, and drive home categories of people along lines of health, weight, risk, responsibility, and worth. In this next section, I examine the ways in which anti-fat discrimination works at the interface of not only the discursive and the emotive, but the material as well. Big Bodies, Small Spaces When they discussed their previous lives as very fat people, all of the participants made reference to a social and built environment mismatch, or in Garland Thomson’s terms, a “misfit”. A misfit occurs “when the environment does not sustain the shape and function of the body that enters it” (594). Whereas the built environment offers a fit for the majority of bodies, Garland Thomson continues, it also creates misfits for minority forms of embodiment. While Garland Thomson’s analysis is particular to disability, I argue that it extends to fat embodiment as well. In discussing what it was like to navigate the world as fat, participants described both the physical and emotional pain entailed in living in bodies that did not fit and frequently discussed the ways in which leaving the house was always a potential, anxiety-filled problem. Whereas all of the participants I interviewed discussed such misfitting, it was notable that participants in the Greater New York City area (70% of the sample) spoke about this topic at length. Specifically, they made frequent and explicit mentions of the particular interface between their fat bodies and the Metropolitan Transit Authority (MTA), and the tightly packed spaces of the city itself. Greater New York City area participants frequently spoke of the shame and physical discomfort in having to stand on public transportation for fear that they would be openly disparaged for “taking up too much room.” Some mentioned that transit seats were made of molded plastic, indicating by design the amount of space a body should occupy. Because they knew they would require more space than what was allotted, these participants only took seats after calculating how crowded the subway or train car was and how crowded it would likely become. Notably, the decision to not take a seat was one that was made at a cost for some of the larger individuals who experienced joint pain. Many participants stated that the densely populated nature of New York City made navigating daily life very challenging. In Talia’s words, “More people, more obstacles, less space.” Participants described always having to be on guard, looking for the next obstacle. As Candice put it: “I would walk in some place and say, ‘Will I be able to fit? Will I be able to manoeuvre around these people and not bump into them?’ I was always self-conscious.” Although participants often found creative solutions to navigating the hostile environment of both the MTA and the city at large, they also identified an increasing sense of isolation that resulted from the physical discomfort and embarrassment of not fitting in. For instance, Talia rarely joined her partner and their friends on outings to movies or the theater because the seats were too tight. Similarly, Decenia would make excuses to her husband in order to avoid social situations outside of the home: “I’d say to my husband, ‘I don’t feel well, you go.’ But you know what? It was because I was afraid not to fit, you know?” The anticipatory scrutinizing described by these participants, and the anxieties it produced, echoes Kirkland’s contention that fat individuals use the technique of ‘scanning’ in order to navigate and manage hostile social and built environments. Scanning, she states, involves both literally rapidly looking over situations and places to determine accessibility, as well as a learned assessment and observation technique that allows fat people to anticipate how they will be received in new situations and new places. For my participants, worries about not fitting were more than just internal calculation. Rather, others made all too clear that fat bodies are not welcome. Nina recalled nasty looks she received from other subway riders when she attempted to sit down. Decenia described an experience on a crowded commuter train in which the woman next to her openly expressed annoyance and disgust that their thighs were touching. Talia recalled being aggressively handed a weight loss brochure by a fellow passenger. When asked to contrast their experiences living in New York City with having travelled or lived elsewhere, participants almost universally described the New York as a more difficult place to live for fat people. However, the experiences of three of the Latinas that I interviewed troubled this narrative. Katrina felt that the harassment she received in her country of origin, the Dominican Republic, was far worse than what she now experienced in the New York Metropolitan Area. Although Decenia detailed painful experiences of anti-fat stigma in New York City, she nevertheless described her life as relatively “easy” compared to what it was like in her home country of Brazil. And Denisa contrasted her neighbourhood of East Harlem with other parts of Manhattan: “In Harlem it's different. Everybody is really fat or plump – so you feel a bit more comfortable. Not everybody, but there's a mix. Downtown – there's no mix.” Collectively, their stories serve as a reminder (see Franko et al.; Grabe and Hyde) to be suspicious of over determined accounts that “Latino culture” is (or people of colour communities in general are), more accepting of larger bodies and more resistant to weight-based stigma and discrimination. Their comments also reflect arguments made by Colls, Grosz, and Garland Thomson, who have all pointed to the contingent nature between space and bodies. Colls argue that sizing is both a material and an emotional process – what size we take ourselves to be shifts in different physical and emotional contexts. Grosz suggests that there is a “mutually constitutive relationship between bodies and cities” – one that, I would add, is raced, classed, and gendered. Garland Thomson has described the relationship between bodies and space/place as “a dynamic encounter between world and flesh.” These encounters, she states, are always contingent and situated: “When the spatial and temporal context shifts, so does the fit, and with it meanings and consequences” (592). In this sense, fat is materialized differently in different contexts and in different scales – nation, state, city, neighbourhood – and the materialization of fatness is always entangled with raced, classed, and gendered social and political-economic relations. Nevertheless, it is possible to draw some structural commonalities between divergent parts of the Greater New York City Metropolitan Area. Specifically, a dense population, cramped physical spaces, inaccessible transportation and transportation funding cuts, social norms of fast paced life, and elite, raced, classed, and gendered norms of status and beauty work to materialize fatness in such a way that a ‘misfit’ is often the result for fat people who live and/or work in this area. And importantly, misfitting, as Garland Thomson argues, has consequences: it literally “casts out” when the “shape and function of … bodies comes into conflict with the shape and stuff of the built world” (594). This casting out produces some bodies as irrelevant to social and economic life, resulting in segregation and isolation. To misfit, she argues, is to be denied full citizenship. Responsibilising the Present Garland Thomson, discussing Bynum’s statement that “shape carries story”, argues the following: “the idea that shape carries story suggests … that material bodies are not only in the spaces of the world but that they are entwined with temporality as well” (596). In this section, I discuss how participants described their decisions to get weight loss surgery by making references to the need take responsibility for health now, in the present, in order to avoid further and future morbidity and mortality. Following Adams et al., I look at how the fat body is lived in a state of constant anticipation – “thinking and living toward the future” (246). All of the participants I spoke with described long histories of weight cycling. While many managed to lose weight, none were able to maintain this weight loss in the long term – a reality consistent with the medical fact that dieting does not produce durable results (Kassirer and Angell; Mann et al.; Puhl and Heuer). They experienced this inability as not only distressing, but terrifying, as they repeatedly regained the lost weight plus more. When participants discussed their decisions to have surgery, they highlighted concerns about weight related comorbidities and mobility limitations in their explanations. Consistent then with Boero, Lopez, and Wadden et al., the participants I spoke with did not seek out surgery in hopes of finding a permanent way to become thin, but rather a permanent way to become healthy and normal. Concerns about what is considered to be normative health, more than simply concerns about what is held to be an appropriate appearance, motivated their decisions. Significantly, for these participants the decision to have bariatric surgery was based on concerns about future morbidity (and mortality) at least as much, if not more so, than on concerns about a current state of ill health and impairment. Some individuals I spoke with were unquestionably suffering from multiple chronic and even life threatening illnesses and feared they would prematurely die from these conditions. Other participants, however, made the decision to have bariatric surgery despite the fact that they had no comorbidities whatsoever. Motivating their decisions was the fear that they would eventually develop them. Importantly, medial providers explicitly and repeatedly told all of these participants that lest they take drastic and immediate action, they would die. For example: Faith’s reproductive endocrinologist said: “you’re going to have diabetes by the time you’re 30; you’re going to have a stroke by the time you’re 40. And I can only hope that you can recover enough from your stroke that you’ll be able to take care of your family.” Several female participants were warned that without losing weight, they would either never become pregnant or they would die in childbirth. By contrast, participants stated that their bariatric surgeons were the first providers they had encountered to both assert that obesity was a medical condition outside of their control and to offer them a solution. Within an atmosphere in which obesity is held to be largely or entirely the result of behavioural choices, the bariatric profession thus positions itself as unique by offering both understanding and what it claims to be a durable treatment. Importantly, it would be a mistake to conclude that some bariatric patients needed surgery while others choose it for the wrong reasons. Regardless of their states of health at the time they made the decision to have surgery, the concerns that drove these patients to seek out these procedures were experienced as very real. Whether or not these concerns would have materialized as actual health conditions is unknown. Furthermore, bariatric patients should not be seen as having been duped or suffering from ‘false consciousness.’ Rather, they operate within a particular set of social, cultural, and political-economic conditions that suggest that good citizenship requires risk avoidance and personal health management. As these individuals experienced, there are material and social consequences for ‘failing’ to obtain normative conceptualizations of health. This set of conditions helps to produce a bariatric patient population that includes both those who were contending with serious health concerns and those who feared they would develop them. All bariatric patients operate within this set of conditions (as do medical providers) and make decisions regarding health (current, future, or both) by using the resources available to them. In her work on the temporalities of dieting, Coleman argues that rather than seeing dieting as a linear and progressive event, we might think of it instead a process that brings the future into the present as potential. Adams et al suggest concerns about potential futures, particularly in regard to health, are a defining characteristic of our time. They state: “The present is governed, at almost every scale, as if the future is what matters most. Anticipatory modes enable the production of possible futures that are lived and felt as inevitable in the present, rendering hope and fear as important political vectors” (249). The ability to act in the present based on potential future risks, they argue, has become a moral imperative and a marker of proper of citizenship. Importantly, however, our work to secure the ‘best possible future’ is never fully assured, as risks are constantly changing. The future is thus always uncertain. Acting responsibly in the present therefore requires “alertness and vigilance as normative affective states” (254). Importantly, these anticipations are not diagnostic, but productive. As Adams et al state, “the future arrives already formed in the present, as if the emergency has already happened…a ‘sense’ of the simultaneous uncertainty and inevitability of the future, usually manifest in entanglements of fear and hope” (250). It is in this light, then, that we might see the decision to have bariatric surgery. For these participants, their future weight-related morbidity and mortality had already arrived in the present and thus they felt they needed to act responsibly now, by undergoing what they had been told was the only durable medical intervention for obesity. The emotions of hope, fear, anxiety and I would suggest, hatred, were key in making these decisions. Conclusion Medical, public health, and media discourses frame obesity as an epidemic that threatens to bring untold financial disaster and escalating rates of morbidity and mortality upon the nation state and the world at large. As Fraser et al argue, strong emotions (such hatred, fear, anxiety, and hope), are at the centre of these discourses; they construct, circulate, and proliferate them. Moreover, they create categories of people who are deemed legitimate and categories of others who are not. In this context, the participants I spoke with were caught between a desire to have fatness understood as a medical condition needing intervention; the anti-fat attitudes of others, including providers, which held that obesity was a failure of the will and nothing more; their own internalization of these messages of personal responsibility for proper behavioural choices, and, the biologically intractable nature of fatness wherein dieting not only fails to reduce weight in the vast majority of cases but results, in the long term, in increased weight gain (Kassirer and Angell; Mann et al.; Puhl and Heuer). Widespread anxiety and embarrassment over and fear and hatred of fatness was something that the individuals I interviewed experienced directly and which signalled to them that they were less than human. Their desire for weight loss, therefore was partially a desire to become ‘normal.’ In Butler’s term, it was the desire for a ‘liveable life. ’A liveable life, for these participants, included a desire for a seamless fit with the built environment. The individuals I spoke with were never more ashamed of their fatness than when they experienced a ‘misfit’, in Garland Thomson’s terms, between their bodies and the material world. Moreover, feelings of shame over this disjuncture worked in tandem with a deeply felt, pressing sense that something must be done in the present to secure a better health future. The belief that bariatric surgery might finally provide a durable answer to obesity served as a strong motivating factor in their decisions to undergo bariatric surgery. By taking drastic action to lose weight, participants hoped to contest stigmatizing beliefs that their fat bodies reflected pathological interiors. Moreover, they sought to demonstrate responsibility and thus secure proper subjectivities and citizenship. In this sense, concerns, anxieties, and fears about health cannot be disentangled from the experience of anti-fat stigma and discrimination. Again, anti-fat bias, for these participants, was more than discursive: it operated through the circulation of emotion and was experienced in a very material sense. The decision to have weight loss surgery can thus be seen as occurring at the interface of emotion, flesh, space, place, and time, and in ways that are fundamentally shaped by the broader social context of neoliberal healthism. AcknowledgmentI am grateful to the anonymous reviewers of this article for their helpful feedback on earlier version. References Adams, Vincanne, Michelle Murphy, and Adele E. Clarke. “Anticipation: Technoscience, Life, Affect, Temporality.” Subjectivity 28.1 (2009): 246-265. 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