Journal articles: 'Asia, Central – Climate'

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Zhang, Jingjing, Xingming Hao, Haichao Hao, Xue Fan, and Yuanhang Li. "Climate Change Decreased Net Ecosystem Productivity in the Arid Region of Central Asia." Remote Sensing 13, no. 21 (November 5, 2021): 4449. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13214449.

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Numerous studies have confirmed that climate change leads to a decrease in the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of terrestrial ecosystems and alters regional carbon source/sink patterns. However, the response mechanism of NEP to climate change in the arid regions of Central Asia remains unclear. Therefore, this study combined the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach (CASA) and empirical models to estimate the NEP in Central Asia and quantitatively evaluate the sensitivity of the NEP to climate factors. The results show that although the net primary productivity (NPP) in Central Asia exhibits an increasing trend, it is not significant. Soil heterotrophic respiration (RH) has increased significantly, while the NEP has decreased at a rate of 6.1 g C·m−2·10 a−1. Spatially, the regional distribution of the significant increase in RH is consistent with that of the significant decrease in the NEP, which is concentrated in western and southern Central Asia. Specifically, the NPP is more sensitive to precipitation than temperature, whereas RH and NEP are more sensitive to temperature than precipitation. The annual contribution rates of temperature and precipitation to the NEP are 28.79% and 23.23%, respectively. Additionally, drought has an important impact on the carbon source/sink in Central Asia. Drought intensified from 2001 to 2008, leading to a significant expansion of the carbon source area in Central Asia. Therefore, since the start of the 21st century, climate change has damaged the NEP of the Central Asian ecosystem. Varying degrees of warming under different climate scenarios will further aggravate the expansion of carbon source areas in Central Asia. An improved understanding of climate change impacts in Central Asia is critically required for sustainable development of the regional economy and protection of its natural environment. Our results provide a scientific reference for the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and global emissions reduction.

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Akmatalieva, A. M. "Foreign Policy Tools for Water Management in Central Asia." Post-Soviet Issues 8, no. 3 (November 30, 2021): 361–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.24975/2313-8920-2021-8-3-361-368.

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This article is devoted to the issue of ineffective and irrational water management in Central Asia. Water management has gained transboundary character, states are divided by their upstream and downstream status and water is perceived as unlimited natural resource which requires new approaches. Author proposes foreign policy tools for water management as constant political dialogue, establishment of permanent body on water management and initiation of projects within China’s Belt and Road imitative, US’s Greater Central Asia and Russia’s Greater Eurasia platform. The vital importance of water as natural resource for life and human development is unquestionable and needs special attention in the context of the climate change and growing population of the Central Asian region. Asian Development Bank has provided three recommendations to Central Asian governments in facing climate change as expanding the supply of water available in the future; increasing the productivity of water; and reducing future demand for water. With predictions of the UN Population Prospects by 2050 Central Asia will have about 100 million inhabitants which undoubtedly will also increase the need for water resources. Taking into acount such factors as climate change and growing population the need for water resources will become only vital in the neearest future and demand for effective and rational water management must be already on the regional agenda.

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Burkhanov, Umar, and Feruza Saburova. "HOW MIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT MICROECONOMIC WELLBEING IN CENTRAL ASIA." CBU International Conference Proceedings 5 (September 22, 2017): 73–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.12955/cbup.v5.905.

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Climate change may pose serious challenges to the economies of Central Asian countries, but in-depth studies on a national level are lacking. The paper is aimed to contribute filling this gap and devoted to assessing the economic impacts of climate change in selected areas of Central Asia. The methods of the desk study and documental analysis are used to summarize the adverse effects of climate change in rural livelihoods. Moreover, the preliminary results of the survey conducted in selected regions of Fergana valley within MikroKlima project used as a corresponding data for economic impact analysis on a household level. The results reveal that the effects of unfavorable weather conditions uneven for short and long term, and across Central Asia. Moreover, the most potential damage from climate change will affect the rural population, and there is also a high positive correlation between water shortage, increased aridity, and poverty, aggravated by climate change.

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Berndtsson, Ronny, and Kamshat Tussupova. "The Future of Water Management in Central Asia." Water 12, no. 8 (August 9, 2020): 2241. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12082241.

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Central Asia is an increasingly important strategic geopolitical region. During the latest decades, the region has often been identified as close to potential conflict regarding water usage. This includes the sharing of water from the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya in the Aral Sea Basin. The Aral Sea disaster has exposed a complex picture of water needs and potential political conflict. Rapid population increase together with climate change impacts are likely to further aggravate the short- and long-term future precarious situation for water management in the region. This Special Issue focuses on present and future water management issues in Central Asia in view of future climate changes and how these will affect socioeconomic development. Central Asia is, in general, water rich; however, exercising efficient and fair water management will be important in view of future population increase and climate change. At the same time, water and natural resource development is a cornerstone in all the Central Asian republics. Especially, water resources are, to a great extent, shared between all five republics. A common ground for water-sharing is, therefore, of utmost importance.

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Han, Ying, Tianhe Wang, Ruiqi Tan, Jingyi Tang, Chengyun Wang, Shanjuan He, Yuanzhu Dong, Zhongwei Huang, and Jianrong Bi. "CALIOP-Based Quantification of Central Asian Dust Transport." Remote Sensing 14, no. 6 (March 15, 2022): 1416. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs14061416.

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Central Asia is one of the most important sources of mineral saline dust worldwide. A comprehensive understanding of Central Asian dust transport is essential for evaluating its impacts on human health, ecological safety, weather and climate. This study first puts forward an observation-based climatology of Central Asian dust transport flux by using the 3-D dust detection of Cloud-Aerosol LiDAR with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). The seasonal difference of transport flux and downstream contribution are evaluated and compared with those of the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). Central Asian dust can be transported not only southward in summer under the effect of the South Asian summer monsoon, but also eastward in other seasons under the control of the westerly jet. Additionally, the transport of Central Asian dust across the Pamir Plateau to the Tibetan Plateau is also non-negligible, especially during spring (with a transport flux rate of 150 kg m−1 day−1). The annual CALIOP-based downstream contribution of Central Asian dust to South Asian (164.01 Tg) is 2.1 times that to East Asia (78.36 Tg). This can be attributed to the blocking effect of the higher terrain between Central and East Asia. Additionally, the downstream contributions to South and East Asia from MERRA-2 are only 0.36 and 0.84 times that of CALIOP, respectively. This difference implies the overestimation of the wet and dry depositions of the model, especially in the low latitude zone. The quantification of the Central Asian dust transport allows a better understanding of the Central Asian dust cycle, and supports the calibration/validation of aerosol-related modules of regional and global climate models.

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Penev, Slavica. "Investment Climate and Foreign Direct Investment Trends in the South Caucasus and Central Asia." South East European Journal of Economics and Business 2, no. 1 (April 1, 2007): 31–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10033-007-0013-1.

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Investment Climate and Foreign Direct Investment Trends in the South Caucasus and Central AsiaThis paper analyzes and compares investment climates and trends in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. The analyses and comparisons were conducted in view of the impacts of transitional progress, economic development, and the energy reserves from these regions on the inflow of foreign direct investment. Improvement of the investment climate by accelerating the transition process and reducing investment risks can be seen as the most important determinants of FDI inflows into the countries of these two regions. Structural diversification of South Caucasian and Central Asian natural resource-based economies would be essential in ending dependence on the energy and mining sectors and would have positive long-term effects on economic growth and the investment climate, and attract other, additional types of FDI.

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Balcerak, Ernie. "New record of climate history in central Asia." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 93, no. 8 (February 21, 2012): 86–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012eo080018.

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Mannig, Birgit, Markus Müller, Eva Starke, Christian Merkenschlager, Weiyi Mao, Xiefei Zhi, Ralf Podzun, Daniela Jacob, and Heiko Paeth. "Dynamical downscaling of climate change in Central Asia." Global and Planetary Change 110 (November 2013): 26–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.05.008.

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Heinold, Bernd, and Ina Tegen. "Modelling mineral dust in the Central Asian region." E3S Web of Conferences 99 (2019): 02012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20199902012.

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In Central Asia, climate and air quality are largely affected by local and long-travelled mineral dust. For the last century, the area has experienced severe land-use changes and water exploitation producing new dust sources. Today global warming causes rapid shrinking of mountain glaciers with yet unknow consequences for dust and its climate effects. Despite the importance for a growing population, only little is known about sources, transport pathways and properties of Central Asian dust. A transport study with a global aerosol-climate model is undertaken to investigate the life cycle of mineral dust in Central Asia for the period of a remote-sensing campaign in Tajikistan in 2015–2016. An initial evaluation with sun photometer measurements shows reasonable agreement for the average amount of dust, but a significant weakness of the model in reproducing the seasonality of local dust with maximum activity in summer. Source apportionment reveals a major contribution from Arabia throughout the year in accordance with observations. In the model, local sources mainly contribute in spring and autumn while summer-time dust production is underestimated. The results underline the importance of considering long-range transport and, locally, a detailed representation of atmospheric dynamics and surface characteristics for modelling dust in Central Asia.

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Gerlitz, Lars, Eva Steirou, Christoph Schneider, Vincent Moron, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz. "Variability of the Cold Season Climate in Central Asia. Part I: Weather Types and Their Tropical and Extratropical Drivers." Journal of Climate 31, no. 18 (September 2018): 7185–207. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0715.1.

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To understand the atmospheric mechanisms resulting in a pronounced cold season climate variability in central Asia, an objective weather-type classification is conducted, utilizing a k-means-based clustering approach applied to 500-hPa geopotential height (GPH) fields. Eight weather types (WT) are identified and analyzed with regard to characteristic pressure patterns and moisture fluxes over Eurasia and specific near-surface climate conditions over central Asia. To identify remote drivers of the central Asian climate, WT frequencies are analyzed for their relationships with tropical and extratropical teleconnection modes. The results indicate an influence of Northern Hemispheric planetary wave tracks on westerly moisture fluxes with positive anomalies of precipitation associated with the formation of a Rossby trough over central Asia. Particularly the propagation of the east Atlantic–western Russia and the Scandinavian patterns is shown to modulate regional climate conditions. Variations of ENSO are shown to affect the frequency of particular WTs because of the formation of an anticyclonic anomaly over the Indian Ocean and an increase of tropical fluxes of moisture and heat into central Asia during El Niño events. Further a WT internal influence of ENSO is distinctly defined, with enhanced moisture supply during the ENSO warm phase. The analysis of climatic trends shows that 50% of observed temperature changes can be assigned to variations of the WT composition, indicating that most likely changing regional circulation characteristics account for the enhanced warming rates in central Asia. Trends of precipitation sums are likewise shown to be associated with changing WT frequencies, although the WT–precipitation relationships include large uncertainties.

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Makhmudova, U., A. Djuraev, and T. Khushvaktov. "Environmental flows in integrated sustainable water resource management in Tuyamuyin water reservoir, Uzbekistan." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 937, no. 3 (December 1, 2021): 032024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/937/3/032024.

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Abstract Climate change is causing extreme recession of the mountain glaciers in Central Asia. Also increased evapotranspiration from higher temperatures in arid and semi-arid zones in Uzbekistan. Additionally, climate change has an effect increased exceptional water deficits. In such scenarios Environmental despite for a more sustainable water supply system, available reservoir capacity. Central Asia unlock watershed region, its main rivers are the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya, and its key problems of the region the efficient use of water from these rivers. Supplying water to the Khorezm oasis and Karakalpakstan, Tuyamuyin reservoir is the main water resource. With an increasing population of the region and Aral Sea ecological problems, mounting demand exists for a more sustainable water supply system. Water reservoirs of Central Asian river contribute to the improvement of water resources management in the lower part of the region and thus, play a strategic role in regional water supplication. 70% of Central Asia is arid and semi-arid regions and therefore, water supply for irrigation and population purposes is the main water sector of all Central Asian countries.

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Boute, Anatole. "The Water-Energy-Climate Nexus Under International Law: A Central Asian Perspective." Michigan Journal of Environmental & Administrative Law, no. 5.2 (2016): 371. http://dx.doi.org/10.36640/mjeal.5.2.water.

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Water, energy, and climate change are intrinsically related to each other but are nonetheless subject to different international legal regimes. The fragmented nature of water, energy, and climate governance represents a challenge for the sustainable management of resources in the energy and water landscape of the 21st century. Regulatory choices in one field can potentially undermine the policy objectives pursued in the other fields. Promoting conventional and unconventional energy production for energy security purposes increases pressure on the availability of fresh water resources and contributes to climate change. Climate change exacerbates the scarcity of water resources, which leads to increasing tensions relating to water access and energy supply in certain regions of the world. Water- and energy-related tensions are particularly acute in Central Asia. Because of its large energy reserves and strategic location in the heart of Eurasia, the Central Asian region is of significant importance for world energy markets. In addition to fossil energy, Central Asia holds large water resources. However, energy and water resources are unevenly distributed in the region, which creates a need for close transboundary cooperation in order to ensure equitable and sustainable access to these vital resources. Despite the mutual benefits of cooperation in Central Asia, governments are reluctant to rely on their neighbors for their water and energy security. States’ refusal to cooperate generates high energy, social, economic, and environmental costs, and poses a serious threat to peace and stability in a region of particular geopolitical relevance. External legal mechanisms are needed to overcome the present political obstacles to transboundary cooperation in resources management. In an effort to overcome the fragmented nature of water, energy, and climate law, this Article examines how international law—in particular the principle of transboundary cooperation—can contribute to addressing the resource management challenges in Central Asia. Additionally, this analysis aims to contribute to the development of international law on transboundary resources management. Based on the Central Asian case study, this Article argues in favor of an integrated approach to water-energy-climate regulation in order to achieve water-energy-climate security in a mutually reinforcing way.

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Lutz, A. F., W. W. Immerzeel, A. Gobiet, F. Pellicciotti, and M. F. P. Bierkens. "New climate change scenarios reveal uncertain future for Central Asian glaciers." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 9, no. 11 (November 8, 2012): 12691–727. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-9-12691-2012.

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Abstract. Central Asian water resources largely depend on (glacier) melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges, located in the basins of the Amu and Syr Darya rivers, important life lines in Central Asia and the prominent water source of the Aral Sea. To estimate future water availability in the region, it is thus necessary to project the future glacier extent and volume in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. The latest climate change projections provided by the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) generated for the upcoming fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are used to model future glacier extent in the Central Asian region for the two large river basins. The outcomes are compared to model results obtained with the climate change projections used for the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). We use a regionalized glacier mass balance model to estimate changes in glacier extent as a function of glacier size and projections of temperature and precipitation. The model is developed for implementation in (large scale) hydrological models, when the spatial model resolution does not allow for modelling of individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Both CMIP3 and CMIP5 model simulations point towards a strong decline in glacier extent in Central Asia. However, compared to the CMIP3 projections, the CMIP5 projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia provide a wider range of outcomes, mostly owing to greater variability in precipitation projections among the latest suite of climate models. These findings have great impact on projections of the timing and quantity of water availability in glacier melt dominated rivers in the region. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier extent and downstream water availability uncertain.

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Gerlitz, Lars, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Heiko Apel, Abror Gafurov, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, and Bruno Merz. "A statistically based seasonal precipitation forecast model with automatic predictor selection and its application to central and south Asia." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20, no. 11 (November 17, 2016): 4605–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4605-2016.

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Abstract. The study presents a statistically based seasonal precipitation forecast model, which automatically identifies suitable predictors from globally gridded sea surface temperature (SST) and climate variables by means of an extensive data-mining procedure and explicitly avoids the utilization of typical large-scale climate indices. This leads to an enhanced flexibility of the model and enables its automatic calibration for any target area without any prior assumption concerning adequate predictor variables. Potential predictor variables are derived by means of a cell-wise correlation analysis of precipitation anomalies with gridded global climate variables under consideration of varying lead times. Significantly correlated grid cells are subsequently aggregated to predictor regions by means of a variability-based cluster analysis. Finally, for every month and lead time, an individual random-forest-based forecast model is constructed, by means of the preliminary generated predictor variables. Monthly predictions are aggregated to running 3-month periods in order to generate a seasonal precipitation forecast. The model is applied and evaluated for selected target regions in central and south Asia. Particularly for winter and spring in westerly-dominated central Asia, correlation coefficients between forecasted and observed precipitation reach values up to 0.48, although the variability of precipitation rates is strongly underestimated. Likewise, for the monsoonal precipitation amounts in the south Asian target area, correlations of up to 0.5 were detected. The skill of the model for the dry winter season over south Asia is found to be low. A sensitivity analysis with well-known climate indices, such as the El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, reveals the major large-scale controlling mechanisms of the seasonal precipitation climate for each target area. For the central Asian target areas, both ENSO and NAO are identified as important controlling factors for precipitation totals during moist winter and spring seasons. Drought conditions are found to be triggered by a cold ENSO phase in combination with a positive state of NAO in northern central Asia, and by cold ENSO conditions in combination with a negative NAO phase in southern central Asia. For the monsoonal summer precipitation amounts over southern Asia, the model suggests a distinct negative response to El Niño events.

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Hofer, Julian, Dietrich Althausen, Sabur F. Abdullaev, Bakhron I. Nazarov, Abduvosit N. Makhmudov, Holger Baars, Ronny Engelmann, and Albert Ansmann. "Aerosol layer heights above Tajikistan during the CADEX campaign." E3S Web of Conferences 99 (2019): 02009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20199902009.

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Mineral dust influences climate and weather by direct and indirect effects. Surrounded by dust sources, Central Asian countries are affected by atmospheric mineral dust on a regular basis. Climate change effects like glacier retreat and desertification are prevalent in Central Asia as well. Therefore, the role of dust in the climate system in Central Asia needs to be clarified and quantified. During the Central Asian Dust EXperiment (CADEX) first lidar observations in Tajikistan were conducted. Long-term vertically resolved aerosol measurements were performed with the multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar PollyXT from March 2015 to August 2016 in Dushanbe, Tajikistan. In this contribution, a climatology of the aerosol layer heights is presented, which was retrieved from the 18-month lidar measurements. Automatic detection based on backscatter coefficient thresholds were used to retrieve the aerosol layer heights and yield similar layer heights as manual layer height determination. The significant aerosol layer height has a maximum in summer and a minimum in winter. The highest layers occurred in spring, but in summer uppermost layer heights above 6 km AGL are frequent, too.

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Malsy, M., T. Aus der Beek, S. Eisner, and M. Flörke. "Climate change impacts on Central Asian water resources." Advances in Geosciences 32 (December 13, 2012): 77–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-32-77-2012.

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Abstract. Central Asia is in large parts dominated by low precipitation and, consequentially, by low water availability. Therefore, changes of natural water resources induced by climate change are of high interest. The aim of this study is to analyse the potential impact of climate change on Central Asian water resources until the end of the 21st century and to point out the main affected regions. Thus, simulations with the large-scale hydrology model WaterGAP3 for the baseline and scenario periods were performed with outputs from three General Circulation Models (GCMs: ECHAM5, IPSL-CM4, and CNRM-CM3) and two IPCC-SRES emission scenarios (A2 and B1). The results show that mean modelled annual water availability increases for all scenarios and GCMs while CNRM-CM3 induces the wettest water situation for the 2085s and ECHAM5 the lowest water availability. Furthermore, robust trends to wetter or dryer conditions could be found for many basins. A seasonal shift of mean modelled water availability could be derived for ECHAM5 which does not show a second peak during summer. The application of daily input data showed no improvement of modelled monthly river discharges for most Central Asian basins compared to monthly input data.

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Zong, Xuezheng, Xiaorui Tian, and Yunhe Yin. "Impacts of Climate Change on Wildfires in Central Asia." Forests 11, no. 8 (July 25, 2020): 802. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f11080802.

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This study analyzed fire weather and fire regimes in Central Asia from 2001–2015 and projected the impacts of climate change on fire weather in the 2030s (2021–2050) and 2080s (2071–2099), which would be helpful for improving wildfire management and adapting to future climate change in the region. The study area included five countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The study area could be divided into four subregions based on vegetation type: shrub (R1), grassland (R2), mountain forest (R3), and rare vegetation area (R4). We used the modified Nesterov index (MNI) to indicate the fire weather of the region. The fire season for each vegetation zone was determined with the daily MNI and burned areas. We used the HadGEM2-ES global climate model with four scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) to project the future weather and fire weather of Central Asia. The results showed that the fire season for shrub areas (R1) was from 1 April to 30 November, for grassland (R2) was from 1 March to 30 November, and for mountain forest (R3) was from 1 April to 30 October. The daily burned areas of R1 and R2 mainly occurred in the period from June–August, while that of R3 mainly occurred in the April–June and August–October periods. Compared with the baseline (1971–2000), the mean daily maximum temperature and precipitation, in the fire seasons of study area, will increase by 14%–23% and 7%–15% in the 2030s, and 21%–37% and 11%–21% in the 2080s, respectively. The mean MNI will increase by 33%–68% in the 2030s and 63%–146% in the 2080s. The potential burned areas of will increase by 2%–8% in the 2030s and 3%–13% in the 2080s. Wildfire management needs to improve to adapt to increasing fire danger in the future.

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Yuan, Ye, Anming Bao, Tie Liu, Guoxiong Zheng, Liangliang Jiang, Hao Guo, Ping Jiang, Tao Yu, and Philippe De Maeyer. "Assessing vegetation stability to climate variability in Central Asia." Journal of Environmental Management 298 (November 2021): 113330. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113330.

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Bernauer, Thomas, and Tobias Siegfried. "Climate change and international water conflict in Central Asia." Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 1 (January 2012): 227–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343311425843.

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Siegfried, Tobias, Thomas Bernauer, Renaud Guiennet, Scott Sellars, Andrew W. Robertson, Justin Mankin, Peter Bauer-Gottwein, and Andrey Yakovlev. "Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia?" Climatic Change 112, no. 3-4 (October 8, 2011): 881–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0253-z.

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Chen, Fa-Hu, and Wei Huang. "Multi-scale climate variations in the arid Central Asia." Advances in Climate Change Research 8, no. 1 (March 2017): 1–2. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.02.002.

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Kurbonov, Shamsiddin M. "DEVELOPMENT OF COOPERATION IN THE FIELD OF WATER DIPLOMACY IN CENTRAL ASIA." Oriental Journal of History, Politics and Law 02, no. 02 (April 1, 2022): 88–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.37547/supsci-ojhpl-02-02-12.

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The transboundary nature and limited nature of water resources in Central Asia makes water a key resource that largely determines the further development of the region. Climate change, population growth and increased demand for water have mixed effects on the water, food and energy security of the countries of Central Asia. That is why cooperation in these areas is a common concern to ensure stability in the region.

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Viter, Anna, Sándor J. Zsarnóczai, and László Vasa. "Climate change impact on crop production in Central Asian Countries." Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce 9, no. 4 (December 30, 2015): 75–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.19041/apstract/2015/4/10.

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Increased risk due to global warming has already become embedded in agricultural decision making in Central Asia and uncertainties are projected to increase even further. Agro-ecology and economies of Central Asia are heterogeneous and very little is known about the impact of climate change at the subnational levels. The bio-economic farm model is used for ex-ante assessment of climate change impacts at sub-national levels in Central Asia. The bio-economic farm model is calibrated to ten farming systems in Central Asia based on the household survey and crop growth experiment data. The production uncertainties and the adaptation options of agricultural producers to changing environments are considered paramount in the simulations. Very large differences in climate change impacts across the studied farming systems are found. The positive income gains in large-scale commercial farms in the northern regions of Kazakhstan and negative impact in small-scale farms in arid zones of Tajikistan are likely to happen. Producers in Kyrgyzstan may expect higher revenues but also higher income volatilities in the future. Agricultural producers in Uzbekistan may benefit in the near future but may lose their income in the distant future. The negative impacts could be further aggravated in arid zones of Central Asia if irrigation water availability decline due to climate change and water demand increase in upstream regions. The scenario simulations show that market liberalization and improved commodity exchange between the countries have very good potential to cope with the negative consequences of climate change. JEL classification: Q11, Q18

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Hagg, W., L. N. Braun, M. Weber, and M. Becht. "Runoff modelling in glacierized Central Asian catchments for present-day and future climate." Hydrology Research 37, no. 2 (April 1, 2006): 93–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2006.0008.

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A conceptual precipitation–runoff model was applied in five glacierized catchments in Central Asia. The model, which was first developed and applied in the Alps, works on a daily time step and yields good results in the more continental climate of the Tien Shan mountains for present-day climate conditions. Runoff scenarios for different climates (doubling of CO2) and glacierization conditions predict an increased flood risk as a first stage and a more complex picture after a complete glacier loss: a higher discharge during spring due to an earlier and more intense snowmelt is followed by a water deficiency in hot and dry summer periods. This unfavourable seasonal redistribution of the water supply has dramatic consequences for the Central Asian lowlands, which depend to a high degree on the glacier melt water for irrigation and already nowadays suffer from water shortages.

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Kitamura, Yoshinobu, Osamu Kozan, Kengo Sunada, and Satoru Oishi. "Water Problems in Central Asia." Journal of Disaster Research 2, no. 3 (June 1, 2007): 134–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2007.p0134.

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We review water-related issues in Central Asia's Syr Darya and Amu Darya River basins as seen in changes in water management and climatic trends. We start by clarifying these problems in basins that are basically in an arid region where water circumstances as a source is unstable and water rights and use among riparian countries are highly discrepant. Results of the examinations on water management clarified 4 major issues: (1) problems affecting countries downstream, such as water shortages in summer and artificial flood damage in winter; (2) problem of irrigation water distribution in the Fergana Valley; (3) the salinization of farmland in middle and lower riparian reaches; and (4) deterioration in Aral Sea and neighboring ecosystems due to drastically lowered water levels. An analysis of the impact of climate change on local hydrological systems pointed up potential new indications: (5) trends in global warming triggering earlier snow melts and floods; and (6) trend in the warming prompting earlier vegetative activity. We conclude by recommending concrete measures for appropriate irrigation and better water management.

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Althausen, Dietrich, Julian Hofer, Sabur Abdullaev, Abduvosit Makhmudov, Holger Baars, Ronny Engelmann, Khanneh Wadinga Fomba, et al. "Mineral dust in Central Asia: Combining lidar and other measurements during the Central Asian dust experiment (CADEX)." EPJ Web of Conferences 176 (2018): 04009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/epjconf/201817604009.

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Mineral dust needs to be characterized comprehensively since it contributes to the climate change in Tajikistan / Central Asia. Lidar results from the measurements of mineral dust during CADEX are compared with results of sun photometer measurements, satellite-based measurements, and chemical analysis of ground samples. Although the dust is often advected from far-range sources, it impacts on the local conditions considerably.

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Xiong, Yufei, Zhijie Ta, Miao Gan, MeiLin Yang, Xi Chen, Ruide Yu, Markus Disse, and Yang Yu. "Evaluation of CMIP5 Climate Models Using Historical Surface Air Temperatures in Central Asia." Atmosphere 12, no. 3 (February 26, 2021): 308. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030308.

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Using historical data compiled by the Climate Research Unit, spatial and temporal analysis, trend analysis, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, and Taylor diagram analysis were applied to test the ability of 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models to accurately simulate the annual mean surface air temperature in central Asia from the perspective of the average climate state and climate variability. Results show that each model can reasonably capture the spatial distribution characteristics of the surface air temperature in central Asia but cannot accurately describe the regional details of climate change impacts. Some of the studied models, including CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-H, could better simulate the high- and low-value centers and the contour distribution of the surface air temperature. Taylor diagram analysis showed that the root mean square errors of all models were less than 3, the standard deviations were between 8.36 and 13.45, and the spatial correlation coefficients were greater than 0.96. EOF analysis showed that the multi-model ensemble can accurately reproduce the surface air temperature characteristics in central Asia from 1901 to 2005, including the rising periods and the fluctuations of the north and south inversion phases. Overall, this study provides a valuable reference for future climate prediction studies in central Asia.

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Hofer, Julian, Dietrich Althausen, Sabur F. Abdullaev, Abduvosit Makhmudov, Bakhron I. Nazarov, Georg Schettler, K. Wadinga Fomba, et al. "Mineral dust in central asia: 18-month lidar measurements in tajikistan during the central Asian dust experiment (CADEX)." EPJ Web of Conferences 176 (2018): 04001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/epjconf/201817604001.

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Tajikistan is often affected by atmospheric mineral dust. The direct and indirect radiative effects of dust play a sensitive role in the climate system in Central Asia. The Central Asian Dust Experiment (CADEX) provides first lidar measurements in Tajikistan. The autonomous multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar PollyXT was operated for 1.5 years (2015/16) in Dushanbe. In spring, lofted layers of long-range transported dust and in summer/ autumn, lower laying dust from local or regional sources with large optical thicknesses occurred.

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Li, Fengyuan, Lili Shao, and Shuqiang Li. "Tropical Niche Conservatism Explains the Eocene Migration from India to Southeast Asia in Ochyroceratid Spiders." Systematic Biology 69, no. 5 (February 3, 2020): 987–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/sysbio/syaa006.

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Abstract Biological migrations between India and Southeast (SE) Asia provide an ideal system for exploring the effects of geology and climate on species ranges. Geologists have confirmed that the direct collision between India and Eurasia occurred in the Early Eocene, but most migrations occurred between the Indian subcontinent and SE Asia rather than the former and the southern margin of Eurasia. To explain this seemingly paradoxical disconnect between the routes of plate movement and biological migration, we studied the evolutionary history of the tropical spider family Ochyroceratidae based on 101 globally distributed species. We infer a robust dated phylogeny using both transcriptomic data and a data set of classical markers and relate these to biogeographic and climatic analyses. Our results indicate that the monophyly of Ochyroceratidae is strongly supported, and the divergence times suggest a Cretaceous Gondwanan origin of the family. Reconstructed biogeographic histories support a dispersal event from the Indian subcontinent to islands of SE Asia 55–38 Ma. Climatic analyses and the fossil record reveal that ochyroceratids are characterized by a high degree of tropical niche conservatism, and that the ancestor of the Indian and SE Asian clades originated in very warm, wet environments. Early Eocene tropical, perhumid climates in India, and SE Asia may have facilitated ochyroceratid migration, whereas the dry or seasonal climate extending from the eastern coast of China to Central Asia may have acted as a barrier, preventing dispersal. Our analyses suggest that climate plays a more important role than geology in biological migration from the Indian subcontinent to SE Asia, providing new insights into the Indian–Asian biogeographic link. [Biogeography; ecology; geological connections; macroevolution; paleoclimate.]

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Rakhmatullaev, Shavkat, and Iskandar Abdullaev. "Central Asian irrigation sector in a climate change context: some reflections." Journal of Water and Climate Change 5, no. 3 (May 29, 2014): 341–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2014.120.

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According to expert opinion, the Central Asian region is likely to experience climate-induced changes with the irrigation sector being the most vulnerable to any change. Climate change impacts are interconnected with land use and socio-economic changes, and many other processes of a human–environmental system. Assessment and adequate information sharing play a critical role in decision making for planning, and allocation of resources for the successful implementation of the adaptation measures. However, a successful adaptation is only possible if the interests of stakeholders and, to a large extent, communities vulnerable to the risks of climate change are provided for. This paper discusses specific assessment of potential impacts of climate change in the water sector, namely on electric pump-lifted irrigation facilities and water reservoirs in Central Asia.

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Port, U., and M. Claussen. "Stability of the vegetation–atmosphere system in the early Eocene climate." Climate of the Past Discussions 11, no. 3 (May 5, 2015): 1551–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-1551-2015.

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Abstract. We explore the stability of the atmosphere–vegetation system in the warm, almost ice-free early Eocene climate and in the interglacial, pre-industrial climate by analysing the dependence of the system on the initial vegetation cover. The Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology is initialised with either dense forests or bare deserts on all continents. Starting with desert continents, an extended desert remains in Central Asia in early Eocene climate. Starting with dense forest coverage, this desert is much smaller because the initially dense vegetation cover enhances water recycling in Central Asia relative to the simulation with initial deserts. With a smaller Asian desert, the Asian monsoon is stronger than in the case with a larger desert. The stronger Asian monsoon shifts the global tropical circulation leading to coastal subtropical deserts in North and South America which are significantly larger than with a large Asian desert. This result indicates a global teleconnection of the vegetation cover in several regions. In present-day climate, a bi-stability of the atmosphere–vegetation system is found for Northern Africa only. A global teleconnection of bi-stabilities in several regions is absent highlighting that the stability of the vegetation–atmosphere system depends on climatic and tectonic boundary conditions.

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Hu, Zengyun, Chi Zhang, Qi Hu, and Hanqin Tian. "Temperature Changes in Central Asia from 1979 to 2011 Based on Multiple Datasets*." Journal of Climate 27, no. 3 (January 24, 2014): 1143–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00064.1.

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Abstract The arid and semiarid region in central Asia is sensitive and vulnerable to climate variations. However, the sparse and highly unevenly distributed meteorological stations in the region provide limited data for understanding of the region’s climate variations. In this study, the near-surface air temperature change in central Asia from 1979 to 2011 was examined using observations from 81 meteorological stations, three local observation validated reanalysis datasets of relatively high spatial resolutions, and the Climate Research Unit (CRU) dataset. Major results suggested that the three reanalysis datasets match well with most of the local climate records, especially in the low-lying plain areas. The consensus of the multiple datasets showed significant regional surface air temperature increases of 0.36°–0.42°C decade−1 in the past 33 years. No significant contributions from declining irrigation and urbanization to temperature change were found. The rate is larger in recent years than in the early years in the study period. Additionally, unlike in many regions in the world, the temperature in winter showed no increase in central Asia in the last three decades, a noticeable departure from the global trend in the twentieth century. The largest increase in surface temperature was occurring in the spring season. Analyses further showed a warming center in the middle of the central Asian states and weakened temperature variability along the northwest–southeast temperature gradient from the northern Kazakhstan to southern Xinjiang. The reanalysis datasets also showed significant negative correlations between temperature increase rate and elevation in this complex terrain region.

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Li, Chaofan, Qifei Han, and Wenqiang Xu. "Contribution of Climate Change and Grazing on Carbon Dynamics in Central Asian Pasturelands." Remote Sensing 14, no. 5 (March 1, 2022): 1210. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs14051210.

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Reducing the uncertainties in carbon balance assessment is essential for better pastureland management in arid areas. Climate forcing data are some of the major uncertainty sources. In this study, a modified Biome-BGC grazing model was driven by an ensemble of reanalysis data of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data (CFSR), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), to study the effect of climate change and grazing on the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of the pasturelands in Central Asia. Afterwards, we evaluated the performance of corresponding climate datasets over four major pastureland types, and quantified the modeling uncertainty induced by climate forcing data. Our results suggest that (1) a significant positive trend in temperature and a negative trend in precipitation were obtained from the three climate datasets. The average precipitation is apparently higher in the CFSR and MERRA data, showing the highest temperature value among the data sets; (2) pasturelands in Central Asia released 2.10 ± 1.60 Pg C in the past 36 years. The highest values were obtained with the CFSR (−1.53 Pg C) and the lowest with the MERRA (−2.35 Pg C) data set; (3) without grazing effects, pasturelands in Central Asia assimilated 0.13 ± 0.06 Pg C from 1981–2014. Grazing activities dominated carbon release (100%), whereas climate changes dominated carbon assimilation (offset 6.22% of all the carbon release). This study offered possible implications to the policy makers and local herdsmen of sustainable management of pastureland and the adaptation of climate change in Central Asia.

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Zech, Cornelia, Tilo Schöne, Julia Illigner, Nico Stolarczuk, Torsten Queißer, Matthias Köppl, Heiko Thoss, et al. "Hydrometeorological data from a Remotely Operated Multi-Parameter Station network in Central Asia." Earth System Science Data 13, no. 3 (March 26, 2021): 1289–306. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1289-2021.

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Abstract. The regional research network Water in Central Asia (CAWa) funded by the German Federal Foreign Office consists of 18 remotely operated multi-parameter stations (ROMPSs) in Central Asia. These stations were installed by the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) in Potsdam, Germany, in close cooperation with the Central-Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences (CAIAG) in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; the national hydrometeorological services in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; the Ulugh Beg Astronomical Institute in Tashkent, Uzbekistan; and the Kabul Polytechnic University, Afghanistan. The primary objective of these stations is to support the establishment of a reliable data basis of meteorological and hydrological data especially in remote areas with extreme climate conditions for applications in climate and water monitoring in Central Asia. Up to now, 10 years of data have been provided for an area of scarce station distribution and with limited open-access data which can be used for a wide range of scientific or engineering applications. The data described in this paper are made publicly available with the digital object identifier (DOI) https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.1.2.2020.002 (Zech et al., 2020) or via the Sensor Data Storage System (SDSS) at http://sdss.caiag.kg (last access: 22 February 2021).

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Li, Longlei, and Irina N. Sokolik. "Developing a Dust Emission Procedure for Central Asia." Air, Soil and Water Research 10 (January 1, 2017): 117862211771193. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1178622117711939.

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Airborne mineral dust is thought to have a significant influence on the climate through absorbing and scattering both shortwave and longwave radiations and affecting cloud microphysical processes. However, a knowledge of long-term dust emissions is limited from both temporal and spatial perspectives. Here, we have developed a quantitative climatology: the column-integrated mass of the dust aerosol loading in Central Asia by incorporating the dust module (DuMo) into the Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model and accounting for regional climate and Land-Cover and Land-Use Changes for the 1950-2010 period in April. This data set is lowly to moderately correlated (0.22-0.48) with the satellite Aerosol Optical Depth in April of the 2000s and lowly correlated (0.02-0.11) with the Absorbing Aerosol Index in April of the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. The total dust loading is approximately 207.85 Mton per month in April during the recent decade (2000-2014) over dust source regions. Although only the month of April was simulated, results suggest that trends and magnitudes are captured well, using the WRF-Chem-DuMo.

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Kuzmina, Zh V., and S. E. Treshkin. "Climate Changes in the Aral Sea Region and Central Asia." Arid Ecosystems 6, no. 4 (October 2016): 227–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/s2079096116040028.

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Gong, Zhi, Dailiang Peng, Jingyi Wen, Zhanqing Cai, Tiantian Wang, Yuekai Hu, Yaxin Ma, and Junfeng Xu. "Research on trend of warm-humid climate in Central Asia." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 74 (July 2017): 012017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/74/1/012017.

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Pankova, E. I., and M. V. Konyushkova. "Climate and soil salinity in the deserts of Central Asia." Eurasian Soil Science 46, no. 7 (July 2013): 721–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/s1064229313070065.

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39

Yu, Yang, Xi Chen, Markus Disse, Bernd Cyffka, Jiaqiang Lei, Haiyan Zhang, Andreas Brieden, et al. "Climate change in Central Asia: Sino-German cooperative research findings." Science Bulletin 65, no. 9 (May 2020): 689–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2020.02.008.

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40

Sommer, R., M. Glazirina, T. Yuldashev, A. Otarov, M. Ibraeva, L. Martynova, M. Bekenov, et al. "Impact of climate change on wheat productivity in Central Asia." Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 178 (September 2013): 78–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2013.06.011.

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41

Lioubimtseva, Elena, and Roy Cole. "Uncertainties of Climate Change in Arid Environments of Central Asia." Reviews in Fisheries Science 14, no. 1-2 (January 2006): 29–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10641260500340603.

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Qiu, Yuan, Qi Hu, and Chi Zhang. "WRF simulation and downscaling of local climate in Central Asia." International Journal of Climatology 37 (March 24, 2017): 513–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.5018.

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Liu, Wanlu, Lulu Liu, and Jiangbo Gao. "Adapting to climate change: gaps and strategies for Central Asia." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 25, no. 8 (October 6, 2020): 1439–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11027-020-09929-y.

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Ganiev, Rustam, and Vladimir Kukarskih. "Climate extremes and the Eastern Turkic Empire in Central Asia." Climatic Change 149, no. 3-4 (July 6, 2018): 385–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2236-9.

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Marti, Beatrice Sabine, Aidar Zhumabaev, and Tobias Siegfried. "A comprehensive open-source course for teaching applied hydrological modelling in Central Asia." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 27, no. 1 (January 17, 2023): 319–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-319-2023.

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Abstract. Numerical modelling is often used for climate impact studies in water resources management. It is, however, not yet highly accessible to many students of hydrology in Central Asia. One big hurdle for new learners is the scripting requirement for the preparation of relevant data prior to the actual modelling. We present a robust, open-source workflow and comprehensive teaching material that aim at bridging the gap between theoretical hydrological modelling know-how and applied modelling for climate impact studies in Central Asia. The teaching material has been refined over 2 consecutive years and is being taken up by several professors teaching hydrological modelling in Central Asia.

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Mukhtarova, Karlygash, Klara Makasheva, Zere Kenzhebaeva, and Mansiya Sadyrova. "PROSPECTS FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION IN CENTRAL ASIA." CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS 22, no. 3 (September 27, 2021): 094–108. http://dx.doi.org/10.37178/ca-c.21.3.08.

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This research article examines the state and prospects of economic cooperation among the countries of Central Asia (CA). As history would have it, economic cooperation within the CA region was previously limited, and investments in Central Asia were mainly concentrated in the mining sector of the economy. Demographic and economic trends in the region have led to an expansion of the internal market; most Central Asian states have implemented wide-ranging reforms, which have improved the overall investment climate; and the CA states have stepped up the development of multilateral trade and economic relations, laying the groundwork for broader cooperation. The article also covers recent problems related to the economic situation in the region. For example, the current situation associated with COVID-19 has had an impact on economic relations between the CA countries. In the view of international experts, this crisis has not provided any new reasons for integration in the region. The quarantine measures taken in various Central Asian countries have had a negative effect on their foreign trade and thus on intra-regional trade and economic cooperation in general. The authors also examine other problems, such as those caused by the CA countries’ economic dependence on other countries, namely their dependence on imports from outside the region. These problems also affect the prospects of economic cooperation in Central Asia. All countries, including those rich in natural resources, want to produce and export finished goods with high value added. The production of high value added products and services enables a country to earn more revenue and reduce its dependence on primary commodity exports. The Central Asian countries are no exception. But for many reasons their finished products are often insufficiently competitive in countries outside the region. Despite the existence of economic problems connected with the need to improve the economic aspects of cooperation, there is a clear trend towards diversification of the economy of the CA countries caused by a desire to develop various specializations. These include agricultural processing, production of consumer goods for the population, development of the service sector, and other areas. Thus, the choice of a new model for the development of multilateral relations and the emerging trend towards economic growth in the region have made it possible to lay the foundation for long-term cooperation among the Central Asian states. Keywords: regional cooperation, Central Asia region, diversification of the economy, trade regimes, external economic policy, region, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan.

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Liu, Yang, Xiu Geng, Zhixin Hao, and Jingyun Zheng. "Changes in Climate Extremes in Central Asia under 1.5 and 2 °C Global Warming and their Impacts on Agricultural Productions." Atmosphere 11, no. 10 (October 9, 2020): 1076. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11101076.

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Changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming may impact agricultural production across Central Asia. We used the simulated daily data of average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and analyzed the current climate status and future projected changes of a set of climate extreme indices related to agricultural production under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming. In addition, the possible impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Central Asia were discussed. The results show that the annual mean temperature in Central Asia will increase by 1.48 °C and 2.34 °C at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels, respectively, compared to the base period (1986–2005), and the increasing trends are significant at the α = 0.01 level for all grids. The number of warm days and growing season length will increase. Under the 1.5 °C scenario, the mean annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation (R95P) will experience increases of 7.68% and 26.55%, respectively, and the consecutive dry days (CDD) will be reduced by 1.1 days. However, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) shows significant drought conditions in most of Central Asia (more than 60%). Under the 2 °C scenario, there will be a 3.89% increase in PRCPTOT and a 24.78% increase in R95P. Nevertheless, accompanying the increase in CDD (0.8 day) and the decrease in SPEI, drought conditions will be further exacerbated. These results indicate that Central Asia is likely to face more severe ecological problems in the future, which will threaten the regional agricultural production and the food security. Therefore, adaptation strategies should be implemented immediately to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on Central Asia’s agriculture.

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Han, Qifei, Geping Luo, Chaofan Li, and Shoubo Li. "Response of Carbon Dynamics to Climate Change Varied among Different Vegetation Types in Central Asia." Sustainability 10, no. 9 (September 14, 2018): 3288. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10093288.

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The effect of climate change on the spatio-temporal patterns of the terrestrial carbon dynamics in Central Asia have not been adequately quantified despite its potential importance to the global carbon cycle. Therefore, the modified BioGeochemical Cycles (Biome-BGC) model was applied in this study to evaluate the impacts of climatic change on net primary productivity (NPP) and net ecosystem productivity. Four vegetation types were studied during the period 1979 to 2011: cropland, grassland, forest, and shrubland. The results indicated that: (1) The climate data showed that Central Asia experienced a rise in annual mean temperature and a decline in precipitation from 1979 to 2011; (2) the mean NPP for Central Asia in 1979–2011 was 281.79 gC m−2 yr−1, and the cropland had the highest NPP compared with the other vegetation types, with a value of 646.25 gC m−2 yr−1; (3) grassland presented as a carbon source (−0.21 gC m−2 yr−1), whereas the other three types were carbon sinks; (4) the four vegetation types showed similar responses to climate variation during the past 30 years, and grassland is the most sensitive ecosystem in Central Asia. This study explored the possible implications for climate adaptation and mitigation.

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Lukyanets, Artem S., Galina N. Ochirova, and Anastasia S. Maksimova. "ECOLOGICAL MIGRATION FROM CENTRAL ASIA TO RUSSIA." SCIENTIFIC REVIEW. SERIES 1. ECONOMICS AND LAW, no. 1 (2021): 38–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.26653/2076-4650-2021-1-04.

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Developing countries and low-income countries with rapidly growing populations and underdeveloped agricultural technologies are most vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters. The countries of Central Asia are already exposed to the impact of natural and climatic changes due to insufficient financial and technical capabilities to overcome negative climatic and environmental phenomena. The authors predict an increase in the ecological migration of the population from Central Asia to Russia due to the visa-free regime, territorial proximity, established migrant social networks and other factors, which partially will compensate for the Russian population decline. Without a legal channel for environmental migration, these flows will be forced to use the labor migration channel. However, there are a number of potential negative consequences that need to be further scrutinized.

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Wolff, Christian, Birgit Plessen, Alexey S. Dudashvilli, Sebastian FM Breitenbach, Hai Cheng, Lawrence R. Edwards, and Manfred R. Strecker. "Precipitation evolution of Central Asia during the last 5000 years." Holocene 27, no. 1 (October 6, 2016): 142–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0959683616652711.

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Central Asia is located at the confluence of large-scale atmospheric circulation systems. However, the number of Holocene climate records is still low in most parts of this region and insufficient to allow detailed discussion and comparisons to disentangle the complex climate history and interplays between the different climatic systems. Here, we present the first stalagmite record from arid Central Asia (south-western Kyrgyzstan) by using δ18O, δ13C, and micro x-ray fluorescence (µXRF)-sulfur data spanning the last 5000 years. The cave hosting stalagmite Uluu-2 is ideally suited to identify past shifts in seasonal variations in precipitation in this part of the world. Comparison of instrumental and paleo-isotopic studies demonstrates that the Uluu-2 speleothem isotope composition faithfully records climate changes and responds to shifts in the proportion of moisture derived from mid-latitude Westerlies during the winter/spring season. The reconstructions suggest that the area was characterized by a dry climate from 4700 to 3900 yr BP, interrupted by a wet episode around 4200 yr BP. Further drier conditions also occurred between 4000 and 3500 yr BP. Wetter conditions were re-established at ca. 2500 yr BP, after another dry episode between 3000 and 2500 yr BP. With the exception of two short dry events (1150 and 1300 yr BP), the period after 1700 yr BP shows moderate to wet conditions. Regional comparisons suggest that the strength and position of the Westerly winds control climatic shifts in arid Central Asia, leading to complex local responses.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Asia, Central – Climate'

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