Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Asia, Central – Climate'

Climate change is a growing concern, which will increasingly affect many aspects of society. These effects will be felt strongest in regions that are already unstable, or underdeveloped. The nations of Central Asia are both rife with underlying tensions, as well as underdeveloped economically and politically. The cases of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan are looked at in depth to deduce the effects of climate change on the natural resources of those countries, and therefore the probable results on the politics of those nations in the face of the climate change induced effects. The effect of climate change on the environment, and the ripple effect felt politically and economically, is also examined at the regional and international level. At the international level, special attention is paid to the influence of China, Russia, and the West. After examining the background, and the predicted consequences of climate change on that background, the likelihood of instability and conflict in the region is very high. Instances of particular concern are examined, as are factors that might mitigate some of the worst instability and conflict. Lessons learned from Central Asia’s experience with climate change are easily transferable to the many underdeveloped regions of the world that will soon feel the effects of climate change.

The effect of recent climate change in Central Asia poses a significant and potentially serious challenge to the region’s agricultural sector. An investigation of the aerosol-climate- crop yield correlation in this region is essential for a better understanding of the effect of aerosols and climate on Central Asian agriculture. Our goal is to investigate the linkages between aerosol, climate and major crop production (cotton, maize, wheat, and rice) in specified agricultural regions in the five Central Asian countries. Our approach is to perform the Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient analysis in order to observe the statistical correlation between crop yield, temperature, precipitation, and aerosol optical depth (AOD), for each indicated agricultural region in the selected countries. Besides, using NASA GIOVANNI website tools, we retrieve distribution maps and time series of temperature, precipitation and AOD to facilitate the analyses. The research shows that in some aspects, the relation between AOD, climate, and crop yield is different in Central Asia than in previous global or large scale research hypotheses. The statistical correlations vary not only across countries but also across agricultural regions. For example, in Kazakhstan, opposite correlations exist between precipitation and AOD in two different agricultural regions even though both regions are rain-fed. In the more arid countries (with lower rain rates) such as Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, no correlation exists between crop production and temperature, precipitation, and AOD, while the less arid (with higher rain rate) countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan) indicate a positive correlation.

Large uncertainties remain in estimating the anthropogenic fraction of mineral dust and the climatic impact of dust aerosol, partly due to a poor understanding of the dust source dynamics under the influence of climate variability and human-induced land-cover/land-use change (LCLUC). So far, the dust dynamics and linkage to climate and LCLUC in Central Asia have received little attention from the aerosol research community. This thesis comprises a comprehensive study of the dust dynamics in Central Asia focusing on 1) the seasonality of erosion threshold and dust emission affected by soil moisture, vegetation phenology and surface roughness, 2) the dust interannual variability and connections with large-scale climate variation (ENSO) through effects on the atmospheric circulation, precipitation, vegetation dynamics and drought, and 3) the impact of dust aerosol on surface radiative balance and photosynthetically active radiation, and possible effect on dryland ecosystems. A coupled dust model and multi-year ground and satellite observations of dust frequency, dust loading, and atmospheric and land conditions are used in this study. We find the threshold friction velocity significantly varies in space and time in response to soil moisture seasonality, surface roughness heterogeneity and vegetation phenology. Spring is associated a higher threshold friction velocity than summer, due to wetter soils and more vegetation cover. As a result, although more frequent strong winds occur during spring, spring dust emission is less than summer by 46.8% (or 60.4 Mt). Ignoring the dependence of the threshold friction velocity on the surface characteristics leads to biased spatial distribution and seasonality of dust emission. There is a strong linkage between dust and ENSO in Central Asia: La Nina years produce drought condition and enhance the dust activity. A decline in the strong wind frequency during 1999−2012 results in a decreasing trend in the modeled dust emission, at a rate of -7.81±2.73 Mt yr-1, as well as a decreasing trend in the ground observed dust frequency index, at a rate of -0.14±0.04%. We estimate that 58.4% of dust emission is caused by human activity during the 1999−2012 period. Our estimates suggest human plays an important role in the region’s dust budget through agriculture and water resource usage.

During the last few decades Central Asia has experienced widespread changes in land cover and land use following the socio-economic and institutional transformations of the region catalyzed by the USSR collapse in 1991. The decade-long drought events and steadily increasing temperature regimes in the region came on top of these institutional transformations, affecting the long term and landscape scale vegetation responses. This research is based on the need to better understand the potential ecological and policy implications of climate variation and land use practices in the contexts of landscape-scale changes dynamics and variability patterns of land surface phenology responses in Central Asia. The land surface phenology responses - the spatio-temporal dynamics of terrestrial vegetation derived from the remotely sensed data - provide measurements linked to the timing of vegetation growth cycles (e.g., start of growing season) and total vegetation productivity over the growing season, which are used as a proxy for the assessment of effects of variations in environmental settings. Local and regional scale assessment of the before and after the USSR collapse vegetation response patterns in the natural and agricultural systems of the Central Asian drylands was conducted to characterize newly emerging links (since 1991) between coupled human and natural systems, e.g., socio-economic and policy drivers of altered land and water use and distribution patterns. Spatio-temporal patterns of bioclimatic responses were examined to determine how phenology is associated with temperature and precipitation in different land use types, including rainfed and irrigated agricultural types. Phenological models were developed to examine relationship between environmental drivers and effect of their altitudinal and latitudinal gradients on the broad-scale vegetation response patterns in non-cropland ecosystems of the desert, steppe, and mountainous regional landscapes of Central Asia.The study results demonstrated that the satellite derived measurements of temporal cycles of vegetation greenness and productivity data was a valuable bioclimatic integrator of climatic and land use variation in Central Asia. The synthesis of broad-scale phenological changes in Central Asia showed that linkages of natural and human systems vary across space and time comprising complex and tightly integrated patterns and processes that are not evident when studied separately.

Wild populations of Malus sieversii [Ldb.] M. Roem are valued genetic and watershed resources in Inner Eurasia. These populations are located in a region that has experienced rapid and on-going climatic change over the past several decades. We assess relationships between climate variables and wild apple radial growth with dendroclimatological techniques to understand the potential of a changing climate to influence apple radial growth. Ring-width chronologies spanning 48 to 129 years were developed from 12 plots in the Trans-Ili Alatau and Jungar Alatau ranges of Tian Shan Mountains, southeastern Kazakhstan. Cluster analysis of the plot-level chronologies suggests different temporal patterns of growth variability over the last century in the two mountain ranges studied. Changes in the periodicity of annual ring-width variability occurred ca. 1970 at both mountain ranges, with decadal-scale variability supplanted by quasi-biennial variation. Seascorr correlation analysis of primary and secondary weather variables identified negative growth associations with spring precipitation and positive associations with cooler fall-winter temperatures, but the relative importance of these relationships varied spatially and temporally, with a shift in the relative importance of spring precipitation ca. 1970 at Trans-Ili Alatau. Altered apple tree radial growth patterns correspond to altered climatology in the Lake Balkhash Basin driven by unprecedented intensified Arctic Oscillations after the late 1970s.

The increasing global air temperature will trigger changes in the global mean water vapor, precipitation patterns and evapotranspiration, which further leads to changes, for instance, instream flow, groundwater flow and soil moisture. Projections of future changes in thehydrological regime of the Aral Sea Drainage Basin (ASDB) in Central Asia are however highlyuncertain, due to complexities of natural and engineered water systems of the basin. The AmuDarya River Delta (ADRD) is vital to the water budget of the Large Aral Sea, the livelihood inUzbekistan and Turkmenistan, as well as the surrounding riparian ecosystem. This study attemptsto investigate responses of river flow in the Aral Sea Drainage Basin and key riparian vegetationspecies (of the so-called Tugai community) in the Amu Darya River Delta to projected futureclimate change. Results from hydrological model and outputs from multi-GCM predictions providea basis for conducting more robust quantitative analysis of possible future hydro-climatic changesin the Amu Darya River Basin. A qualitative synthesis of the suitability of Tugai is furthermoreperformed in order to increase the knowledge of the riparian vegetation status under thechanging hydro-climatic conditions. The results show that the averaged temperature in the ASDBis likely to continuously increase and yield a total increase of about 2 °C ~ 5°C by 2100. Thechange trend of the annual regional precipitation of 2100 is relatively unclear, with estimatesranging from 50 mm lower than today to 75 mm higher than today. Modeled ensemble means (EM)river flow, obtained from hydrological modeling of climate output from multi-GCM projections,converge on showing future decreases in river runoff (R). Projected absolute R may decrease tozero around 2100, implying no surface flow and a dry out near the river outlet. The relationship ofwater flux between upstream and downstream will be changed dramatically due to climatechange. More specifically, R of the upstream region will decrease, and it is likely to becomeinsufficient for feeding downstream river reaches as it used to. The decreased river flow in thedelta may accelerate the desertification and salinization processes. Consequently, speciestransitions may occur, along with degradations of the existing Tugai communities. Theuncertainties of hydro-climatic change projections to some extent hinder the understanding of thedynamic hydrological-climatic-ecological system. However, the detailed responses of the delta toclimate change based on multiple qualitative and quantitative analyses provide an important basisfor the formulation of more robust forecasts on the future ecological development in the ADRD, and further for recommendations of measures to mitigate the ecosystem’s deterioration under achanging climate.

This thesis addresses the complexities of conducting hydrological climate change impact assessments in mountainous, highly glacierised catchments by developing and validating a glacier dynamics module for the hydrological model SWIM. It provides the first integrated climate change impact assessment for the five headwaters of the Tarim River, NW China/Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia, overcoming the region’s severe data-scarcity. The region’s heterogeneity and limited data availability is characterised, with a focus on the quality of precipitation datasets. After using the original SWIM model for an analysis of observed glacial lake outburst floods and highlighting the model’s insufficiencies for long-term assessments, a new glacier dynamics model of intermediate complexity is developed, bridging catchment and glacier scales. This new model implements all major glacier processes, including ice movement, avalanching, sublimation and sub-debris melting. It is validated in one of the data-scarce Tarim River headwater catchments as well as the data-abundant Upper Rhone catchment, Switzerland. The model is then implemented in all five Tarim headwaters and calibrated to discharge, glacier hypsometry and mass balance, using an automatic multi-objective approach. The model provides a correction of the high mountain precipitation, a driving variable shown to be highly uncertain. It is then used to assess three IPCC climate change scenarios for the 21st century using an ensemble of eight global and one regional climate model. Impacts on glacier area and volume as well as discharge are explored, including their climate model and calibration parameter uncertainties. Results show current catchment precipitation to be 1.4–4.3 times greater than observation datasets suggest, a finding in-line with climate model simulations and remote sensing based datasets. Under a generally warmer and wetter climate, glacier cover is expected to recede and discharge may experience large increases as a consequence, especially in the near future. Uncertainties are large, however, mainly owing to climate model variability.

Le climat asiatique est aujourd'hui caractérisé par une forte dualité entre un climat de moussons au Sud-Est et un climat aride en Asie centrale. Ces climats sont tous les deux définis par une saisonnalité marquée, que ce soit en terme de précipitations pour le premier ou de températures pour le second. Si l'intensification des moussons asiatiques au Néogène, liée à l'influence du soulèvement final du plateau tibétain sur les climats asiatiques, semble faire consensus dans la communauté scientifique, la caractérisation des climats paléogènes est encore peu établie. Ainsi la question de savoir quand cette dualité climatique s'est installée en Asie reste encore ouverte. Au Paléogène, les reliefs liés à la collision entre les plaques indienne et eurasiatique étaient encore naissant et la distribution entre les terres et les mers très différente de l'actuelle. Notablement, une vaste mer épicontinentale et peu profonde (la Proto-Paratethys) s'étendait à travers l'Europe et l'Asie Centrale. À la fin du Paléogène, la Proto-Parathetys se retire de l'Asie Centrale, et les hautes topographies asiatiques se mettent en place. Dans ce contexte géodynamique, cette thèse cherche à caractériser les fluctuations à haute fréquence du climat en Asie Centrale afin de comprendre l'évolution de la saisonnalité au cours du Paléogène, et plus précisément pendant la période de l'Éocène (-55 à -34 Ma). Pour cela une approche originale utilisant une méthode géochimique multi- proxy sur des coquilles d'huîtres a été établie. Grâce à l'apport de l'analyse incrémentielle de marqueurs élémentaires et isotopiques sur les coquilles nous accédons aux variations saisonnières de la température et de la salinité de l'eau de mer. Ceci nous permet de mieux cerner les bilans hydriques et thermiques à l'échelle de l'année et ainsi de caractériser le climat d'Asie Centrale à très haute résolution. Combinant cette approche géochimique avec une étude sédimentologique et une étude numérique à plus grande échelle, cette thèse cherche à mieux établir les causes de l'évolution du climat régional au cours du Paléogène
The modern Asian climate is mainly characterized by a monsoonal duality between humid summers in southern and eastern Asia and arid winters in Central Asia resulting in a strong seasonality in terms of precipitation and temperature in these respective regions. Although Neogene monsoonal intensification - mainly attributed to Tibetan plateau uplift - is well established, Paleogene Asian climate is still poorly understood such that the question of how and when this climate duality was established remains open. During Paleogene times, paleoreliefs due to the ongoing Indo-Asia collision and the land-sea distribution were very different compared to modern. Notably, a shallow epicontinental sea (the Proto-Paratethys) covered part of Europe and Central Asia. During the Eocene (-55 to -34 Ma), the Proto-Paratethys retreated westward while high Asian topographies formed. In this peculiar context, this PhD thesis aims to characterize the evolution of high-frequency climatic fluctuations in Central Asia in order to better constrain the seasonality changes associated with sea retreat, topographic uplift or nascent monsoons. We develop a novel approach using a geochemical multi-proxy methodology on oyster shells. Thanks to incremental analyses of elements and isotopes on bivalve shells, we estimate seasonal variations of temperature and salinity in seawater at high resolution. This enables to constrain precisely the annual-scale water and thermal balances and, by applying this technique to successive oyster bearing deposits widely distributed over Central Asia, aims to characterize Central Asian climate evolution. Combining this geochemical approach with a sedimentological and a numerical studies at larger time- and geographic- scale, this PhD thesis is aiming at better understanding the causes of the Eocene regional climate evolution

Changes in land use and water use can greatly impact the cycling of water and water-borne substances. Increased redistribution of river water to irrigated fields can cause enhanced evapotranspiration and decreased river discharge. Additionally, the water quality can be affected by the external input of fertilisers and pesticides, and by changed pollutant transport pathways in expansive irrigation canal systems. This thesis examines basin-scale changes in water use, river discharge, water quality and nitrogen (N) loading under conditions of intensified irrigated agriculture, using the Aral Sea drainage basin (ASDB) with its two large rivers Syr Darya and Amu Darya in Central Asia as study area. Results show that more efficient irrigation techniques could reduce outtake of river water to the cotton fields in the ASDB by about 10 km3/year, while the corresponding river water saving at the outlet would be 60% lower. The result illustrates the importance of accounting for return flows of irrigation water in basin-scale water saving assessments. Moreover, a decrease in riverine N concentrations at the outlet of the Amu Darya River Basin (ADRB) was observed during a 40-year period of increasing N fertiliser input. The decrease was identified to be primarily caused by increased recirculation of river water in the irrigation system, leading to increased flow-path lengths and enhanced N attenuation. Decreasing N loads were shown to be primarily related to reduced discharge. N export from the basin may further decrease due to projected discharge reductions related to climate change. Furthermore, nutrients and metals were occasionally found at concentrations above drinking water guideline values in surface waters in the ADRB. However, metal concentrations in groundwater in the lower ADRB were subject to orders of magnitude higher health hazards. Projected decrease in downstream surface water availability would thus imply decreased access to water suitable for drinking.

At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 4: Submitted. Paper 5: Manuscript.

La chaîne du Tianshan s'étend sur ~2800 km en longitude et sépare deux bassins désertiques d'Asie Centrale, le Tarim au sud et le Junggar au nord. Ses reliefs élevés (>7000 m) sont issus d'une réactivation cénozoïque due à la collision Inde-Asie. Cette chaîne forme ainsi une barrière naturelle aux courants atmosphériques d'Asie Centrale et sa surrection a dû avoir un impact sur l'évolution climatique durant le Néogène. Son évolution morphologique est contrôlée par la tectonique et le climat, à plusieurs échelles de temps et d'espace. Le Tianshan est donc un objet naturel pour l'étude des interactions Orogenèse-Climat-Erosion. Le piedmont nord du Tianshan est formé de plis d'avant-pays incisés par des rivières, mettant à l'affleurement des séries fluvio-lacustres cénozoïques des bassins de piedmont, issues de l'érosion de la chaîne. Une étude sédimentologique (faciès, matière organique-MO et minéraux lourds-ML) a été menée sur trois sites Jingou He, Kuitun He et Ebi Nor, afin de reconstituer les paléoenvironnements depuis 25 Ma. Il a été montré que la composition organique des sédiments n'est pas liée aux environnements sédimentaires. De plus, les palynofaciès exposent des variations climatiques globales, comme les périodes d'aridification connues en Asie Centrale à ~15, 8 et 3 Ma, ainsi que des variations régionales sur le piedmont nord. La confrontation des résultats avec ceux de l'étude du magnétisme des roches permet d'apporter des informations supplémentaires : les variations climatiques sur le piedmont nord seraient dues soit à la tectonique (~20,5; 15,5; 11,5 et 4,5 Ma), soit au climat (~20,5; ~17,5; ~13,8; ~9-8,8; ~4,5 et ~1,2 Ma). L’étude sédimentaire des séries néogènes du bassin du Junggar révèle que 1) les palynofaciès permettent de décrire l’évolution des environnements, en terme de degré d’humidité/aridité, cela malgré les faibles contenus organiques, 2) la confrontation avec d'autres paramètres permet de proposer une origine tectonique ou climatique aux changements environnementaux, 3) la corrélation entre les 3 sites d’étude montre que ces variations sont au moins d'échelle régionale.

L’empreinte des activités humaines sur les milieux naturels commence à se faire sentir avec la révolution néolithique, il y a quelques 10.000 ans, aux débuts de l’Holocène. Dans le cadre de l’ANR PaléoSyr/PaléoLib et à partir d’archives sédimentaires prélevées dans différents contextes environnementaux (côtier, lacustre et fluviatile/marais), le but de ce travail est de mettre en évidence l’évolution des changements paléoenvironnementaux pour chaque site et d’en évaluer la part relevant respectivement des fluctuations climatiques et des activités humaines, afin de mieux comprendre la relation Homme- Environnement-Climat à l’Holocène. L’étude de ces différents contextes paléoenvironnementaux permet de contraindre temporellement le développement des premières influences humaines sur leur milieu naturel, et de préciser leur mode d’action, à l’aide de marqueurs biotiques (pollen) et abiotiques du sédiment. Les principales fluctuations environnementales enregistrées soulignent les hétérogénéités régionales de réponse aux forçages climatiques et permettent ainsi d’affiner nos connaissances aux échelles locale et régionale
The first sizeable consequences of human activities on the natural environment are thought to have taken place during the Neolithic revolution, at the beginnings of the Holocene, about 10,000 years ago. The aim of this study is to assess the respective role of climate fluctuations and human activities on the evolution of different environmental contexts (coastal, lake and fluvial / swamp) during this interval using sedimentary and palynological records, and hence improve our understanding of Human-Environment-Climate relationships during the Holocene. The study of these different paleoenvironmental settings through the use of both biotic (pollen) and abiotic (sediment geochemistry) markers allow to constrain the temporal development of the first human influences on the natural environment, and to determine their various modes of action (e.g. pastoralism, cultivation). The sequence of environmental changes reconstructed in this study hence highlights profound regional heterogeneities in the response of the studied areas to climatic and anthropic forcing and thus have important implications for our knowledge of the environment-human relationships at the local and regional scales

La chaîne du Tianshan s'étend sur ~2800 km en longitude et sépare deux bassins désertiques d'Asie Centrale, le Tarim au sud et le Junggar au nord. Ses reliefs élevés (>7000 m) sont issus d'une réactivation cénozoïque due à la collision
Inde-Asie. Cette chaîne forme ainsi une barrière naturelle aux courants atmosphériques d'Asie Centrale et sa surrection a dû avoir un impact sur l'évolution climatique durant le Néogène. Son évolution morphologique est contrôlée par la tectonique et le climat, à plusieurs échelles de temps et d'espace. Le Tianshan est donc un objet naturel pour l'étude des interactions Orogenèse-Climat-Erosion. Le piedmont nord du Tianshan est formé de plis d'avant-pays incisés par des rivières, mettant à l'affleurement des séries fluvio-lacustres cénozoïques des bassins de piedmont, issues de l'érosion de
la chaîne. Une étude sédimentologique (faciès, matière organique-MO et minéraux lourds-ML) a été menée trois sites Jingou He, Kuitun He et Ebi Nor, afin de reconstituer les paléoenvironnements depuis 25 Ma. Il a été montré que la composition organique des sédiments n'est pas liée aux environnements sédimentaires. De plus, les palynofaciès exposent des variations climatiques globales, comme les périodes d'aridification connues en Asie Centrale à ~15, 8 et 3 Ma, ainsi que des variations régionales sur le piedmont nord. La confrontation des résultats avec ceux de l'étude du magnétisme des roches permet d'apporter des informations supplémentaires : les variations climatiques sur le piedmont nord seraient dues soit à la tectonique (~20,5; 15,5; 11,5 et 4,5 Ma), soit au climat (~20,5; ~17,5; ~13,8; ~9-8,8; ~4,5 et ~1,2 Ma).
L'étude sédimentaire des séries néogènes du bassin du Junggar révèle que 1) les palynofaciès permettent de décrire l'évolution des environnements, en terme de degré d'humidité/aridité, cela malgré les faibles contenus organiques, 2) la confrontation avec d'autres paramètres permet de proposer une origine tectonique ou climatique aux changements environnementaux, 3) la corrélation entre les 3 sites d'étude montre que ces variations sont au moins d'échelle régionale.