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Author: Grafiati
Published: 10 December 2022
Last updated: 28 January 2023

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1

Mohd Nasir, Noormahayu Binti, Zarul Azhar Nasir, Norasyikin Abdullah Fahami, Muhammad Adidinizar Zia Ahmad Kusairee, and Khalijah Ramli. "Malaysia’s Healthcare Expenditure: ARDL Bound Test." ADVANCES IN BUSINESS RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL 7, no. 2 (October 31, 2021): 267. http://dx.doi.org/10.24191/abrij.v7i2.13340.

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This study aims to analyse the relationships between income level, education expenditure, inflation, and ageing population towards health expenditure in Malaysia over the period of 1997 until 2017. This study employs Autoregressive Distributed-Lag (ARDL) Bound test in determining the long-run empirical relationships between all independent variables and healthcare expenditures in Malaysia. The findings show the existence of long run cointegration between healthcare expenditure inflation, income level, and the government’s education expenditure. The results confirmed that all independent variables have positive long run relationships, except the ageing population that displays a negative relationship in influencing healthcare expenditure in Malaysia. The regression result of GDPP shows income elasticity value of 0.690, reflecting the necessity of healthcare expenditure. The outcome of the paper hopes to provide insights on the importance of healthcare expenditure for the development of this country, especially on its economic fronts.
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BULUT, Erol, and İbrahim TOKATLIOĞLU. "Augmented Taylor Rule Analysis for Turkish Economy: ARDL Bound Test." Fiscaoeconomia 6, no. 3 (September 14, 2022): 976–1002. http://dx.doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1063913.

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Enflasyonla mücadelede son zamanlarda en çok başvurulan politikalardan birisi de enflasyon hedeflemesi politikasıdır. Uygulamada geniş kabul gören bu politikanın hedefi gerçekleştirmek için kullandığı araçlardan bir tanesi ise, merkez bankalarının nominal faiz oranlarını enflasyondaki gelişmelere göre belirleme kabiliyetidir. Nominal faiz üzerindeki ana tartışma konusu, merkez bankalarının nominal faiz oranlarını hangi düzeyde belirleyeceğidir. Bunun için Taylor (1993) çalışmasında oldukça kullanışlı ve literatürde genel kabul gören bir kural geliştirmiştir. Bu kurala göre cari enflasyon düzeyi ile hedeflenen enflasyon arasındaki fark ile cari ve potansiyel büyüme arasındaki fark nominal faiz oranının değişim hızını belirlemektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye için Ocak 2003-Ekim 2021 dönemi arasında genişletilmiş Taylor denklemi ARDL Sınır Testi ve Kayan Pencere Yöntemi ile tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre Türkiye’de genişletilmiş Taylor Denklemi 2008 küresel kriz dönemine kadar etkin bir şekilde çalışırken, krizi dönemi ve sonrasında Taylor denkleminin istikrarı bozulmuş görünmektedir.
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Shah, Imtiyaz Ahmad, and Imtiyaz ul Haq. "The Impact of Tourism Development and Economic Growth on Poverty Reduction in Kazakhstan." Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business 10, no. 1 (September 1, 2022): 77–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/auseb-2022-0005.

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Abstract The paper examines the long-run relationship between poverty reduction, economic growth, and tourism development in Kazakhstan during the period of 2001–2017. We expand the basic model by including other poverty determinants such as inequality, unemployment, and spending on health. We use the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to test the co-integration of variables, as the ARDL bound test of co-integration is less restrictive and provides more reliable coefficients than other time series econometric models. The ARDL bound test results show that there exists a long-run relationship between the said variables. The coefficients of all variables have the expected signs in the long run.
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Myovella, Godwin Aloyce, and Zakayo Samson Kisava. "Budget deficit and inflation in Tanzania: ARDL bound test approach." Pressacademia 7, no. 1 (March 30, 2018): 83–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.17261/pressacademia.2018.797.

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Thanabalasingam, T. "The Role of Political Stability, Labor Market and Education on Migration: The Empirical Evidence from Sri Lanka." Business and Economic Research 10, no. 2 (June 8, 2020): 372. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ber.v10i2.16988.

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This study employs annual data from Sri Lanka over the period of 1990 – 2018 in order to investigate the impact of political instability and the existence of violence, unemployment rate, wage differential and level of education on migration. ADF unit root test confirmed that none of the variables are I(2), which allows us to examine the long run relationship between the variables using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound testing method. AIC is suggested to adapt ARDL (1, 0, 0, 2, 0) model among the top 20 models. ARDL Bound testing approach identified the cointegrating relationship between the variables. The results of both ARDL Bound test and the ARDL version of ECM detected that unemployment rate, political instability and the existence of violence/terrorism and level of education have a positive and significant impact on net migration whereas wage differential do not have significant impact on it even though it affect the net migration negatively both in the long run and in the short run respectively. Also, the coefficients of long run results and the Wald test confirm that the impact of unemployment rate is higher than wage differential, political instability and level of education on net migration in the long run. The result of CUSUM test of selected ARDL model discloses that the estimated model is stable and this model passes the all the diagnostic test. Moreover, Granger causality test identified a causal relationship that stemming from unemployment to net migration, wage differential to net migration, political instability to net migration and level of education to net migration. These findings could be useful to policy makers when they formulating and implementing the policy related to labor markets and good governance.
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Osadume, Richard, and Uzoma, C. Blessing. "Maritime Trade and Economic Development: A Granger Causality and Bound Test Approach." LOGI – Scientific Journal on Transport and Logistics 11, no. 2 (November 1, 2020): 23–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/logi-2020-0012.

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AbstractThis paper investigates Maritime trade and economic development: A granger causality and Bound test approach. Most scholars believe that maritime trade openness will transform economy into a developed nation while some disagree. The main objective of this research is to examine the relationship between maritime trade and economic development; specifically, to ascertain whether maritime trade granger-causes economic development; and to determine whether there is a co-integration between maritime trade and economic development. The study used secondary data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the United Nations development Programme, and tested the effect of independent variables on a dependent variable. The variables were tested using Stationarity, heteroskedasticity, Ramsey reset, granger-causality and ARDL Bounds test at the 5% level of significance. The findings revealed that maritime trade proxy by trade openness had a significant effect on economic development captured by HDI and the ARDL Bound test showed a significant effect of trade openness on economic development. The study concludes that maritime trade granger-causes economic development with a Bi-directional causal relationship and significant co-integration exists between them; and recommends among others the provision of conducive environment and cheap funding by the government to encourage the growth of maritime trade.
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Garba Mohammed Guza, Ahmed Balarabe Musa, and Sunday Elijah. "Violent Crime and Unemployment in Nigeria: An ARDL Bound Test Cointegration." Journal of Economic Info 6, no. 4 (November 24, 2019): 21–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.31580/jei.v6i4.1097.

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This study attempts to examine whether there is a long-run relationship existing between crime rates and unemployment in Nigeria for the period 2004 to 2016. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach was used to determine the cointegration between unemployment and crime rates. The results show that unemployment and crime (murder, armed robbery, robbery, assaults, sexual offense, and cultism) are cointegrated. The empirical findings show that the unemployment rate and violent crime, such as; armed robbery, robbery-murder, assaults, sex violence, and cultism are all cointegrated. The long-run coefficients results indicated that the unemployment rate has a positive and significant effect on murder, sex violence, assaults, and cultism
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IYO Ipeghan, Dr, Dr EKPETE Marshall Simon, and EKPETE Kinsley Simon. "Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Approach of Financial Intermediation of Commercial Banks and Risk in Nigeria." Sumerianz Journal of Economics and Finance, no. 312 (December 16, 2020): 246–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.47752/sjef.312.246.264.

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This study empirically examines the relationship between financial intermediation of commercial banks and risk in Nigeria spanning from 2007-2019 and utilizing the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration and Granger causality analysis. The result of the ARDL bounds test reveals a stable long run relationship between the dependent and independent variables with greater bound value of 16.02. The ARDL results also reveal the presence of short and long run positive and significant relationship between loans and advances and risk factors. The finding of the Granger causality reveals bidirectional causality between loans and advances and risk factors. The study recommends that commercial banks should continue their short term lending of credit for investment as default has been drastically reduced in lending to customers.
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Elian, Mohammad I., Nabeel Sawalha, and Ahmad Bani-Mustafa. "Revisiting the FDI–Growth Nexus: ARDL Bound Test for BRICS Standalone Economies." Modern Applied Science 14, no. 6 (May 13, 2020): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/mas.v14n6p1.

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In this paper the author tests for the short-run dynamics and long-run cointegration relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and economic growth for the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) standalone economies controlling for real exchange rate, trade openness, and domestic investment. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing method of cointegration is used to test for the long-run relationship of our FDI time series model by investigating annual macroeconomic datasets for the years 1981 to 2018 (inclusive). Coupled with the ARDL, the error correction model is applied to test for the short-run dynamics, while the Toda Yamamoto test is used to examine the causality direction between the constructs of interest. The Breusch-Godfrey and Ljung-Box are used as diagnostic tests for the ARDL assumptions of normality, independency, and autocorrelation in residuals, while the Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test is used to test for heteroscedasticity. According to the short-run estimates, all variables have a significant lagged impact on FDI inflows with slight differences among countries. As for the long run, estimates reveal a positive and significant impact of GDP on FDI inflows for Russia, India, China, and South Africa but a positive and insignificant relationship for Brazil. The long-run estimates for the controlling variables evidence varied results among the BRICS countries. In contrast to Brazil and Russia, the Toda Yamamoto causality test discloses a significant and unidirectional flow between the GDP growth and FDI inflows for India, China, and South Africa. The results have meaningful implications for policy reform structures, economic integration among economies, multinational firms, and portfolio managers.
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Muazu, Abdulrazak Umar, and Lawali Mohammad. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1970-2010: ARDL Bounds Test Approach." International Journal of Business Administration and Management Research 1, no. 1 (June 15, 2015): 4. http://dx.doi.org/10.24178/ijbamr.2015.1.1.04.

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This paper analyses the impact of public expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria during the period 1970 to 2010 making use of annual time series data. The study employs the bounds testing (ARDL) approach toexamine the long run and short run relationships between public expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria. The bounds test suggested that the variables of interest put in the framework are bound together in the long-run. The associated equilibrium correction was also significant confirming the existence of long-run relationships. Our findings indicate the impact of total public spending on growth to be negative which is consistent with other past studies. Recurrent expenditure however was found to have little significant positive impact on growth. Therefore, government should increase its spending on infrastructure, social and economic activities.
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Al-Qudah, Ali Mustafa. "The Determinants of Money Demand in Jordan: ARDL Approach." Journal of Management Research 11, no. 1 (January 23, 2019): 61. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/jmr.v11i1.13771.

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The current study examined the relationship between real money demand (M2) and its determinants represented by real gross domestic product, real interest rate, inflation rate and budget deficit in Jordan for the period (2000Q1-20018Q1). The study used unit root test, Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL), cointegration and long run, bound test to examine the study hypotheses. ARDL cointegration equation and ARDL Bound test show that there is a long run relationship between money demand M2 and its determinants, real interest rate, inflation rate, budget deficit and real gross domestic product. The short run ARDL results shows that the past period of money demand has a negative and significant impact on money demand, while inflation rate and Gross domestic product have a positive and significant impact on money demand in Jordan. The long run ARDL results show that the inflation rate, real gross domestic product and budget deficit have a positive long run relationship with money demand (M2)and Its impact on (M2 ) is positive and statistically significant at 1 percent level, while interest rate has a negative and significant impact on Money demand (M2 ). Inflation rate, real gross domestic product, budget deficit and interest rate are good determinants for money demand M2. The cumulative sum (CUSUM) of recursive residuals and cumulative sum of squares (CUSUMQ) of recursive residuals confirm that the estimated money demand M2 model is stable.
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Dutta, Ujjal Protim, and Partha Pratim Sengupta. "Remittances and Real Effective Exchange Rate." South Asia Economic Journal 19, no. 1 (March 2018): 124–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1391561418761077.

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Remittances in India have been growing rapidly since 1991. Most of the studies find that remittance has had a significant impact on real effective exchange rate (REER). It is imperative to evaluate the impact of a transfer such as remittance and aid on country’s competitiveness. This article is an attempt to investigate the impact of workers’ remittances and some selected macro-variables on REER of India using annual data from 1980–2015. The study conducted autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound test co-integration approach to explore this long-run relationship. The ARDL bound test approach confirms significant long-run relationships among the selected variables at 1 per cent level of significance. In addition to this, the ARDL short-run error correction model implies that while REER may temporarily deviate from its long-run equilibrium, the deviations adjust towards the equilibrium level in the long run. JEL: F31, F35, F41
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13

Shubaita, Elham, Muhammad Mar’i, and Mehdi Seraj. "Investigating in the J-curve phenomenon in Tunisia- ARDL bound test approach." Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies 12, no. 5(J) (November 12, 2020): 23–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v12i5(j).3077.

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This paper investigates the relationship between trade balance, real exchange rates, and incomes in Tunisia by adopting the autoregressive distributed model (ARDL) by using data over the period of 1980 to 2018. We also used the bound test cointegration between variables at a 10% significant level. Our findings show that the Tunisia economy does not match the Marshall-Lerner condition in the long run, that provides an accurate description of the particular situation for which a country currency devaluation or depreciation its currency under both fixed or floating regime is predicted to enhance the trade balance of a country, which means there is no j-curve phenomenon in the long run, which tries to differentiate between the change of short-run and long-run effects in the change of exchange rate on the trade balance. Our findings match the Marshall-Lerner condition in the short run and can confirm the existing j-curve in the case of Tunisia.
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Damane, Moeti. "Empirical Analysis of Private Consumption in Lesotho: An ARDL Bound Test Approach." Modern Economy 09, no. 03 (2018): 400–421. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/me.2018.93026.

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15

Qamruzzaman, Md, and Jianguo Wei. "Financial Innovation, Stock Market Development, and Economic Growth: An Application of ARDL Model." International Journal of Financial Studies 6, no. 3 (August 2, 2018): 69. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6030069.

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This study aims to explore the relationship between economic growth, financial innovation, and stock market development of Bangladesh for the period 1980–2016. To investigate long-run cointegration, this study used the autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) bounds testing approach. In addition, the Granger-causality test is used to identify directional causality between research variables under the error correction term. Study findings from the ARDL bound testing approach confirm the existence of a long-run association between financial innovation, stock market development, and economic growth. Furthermore, the findings from the Granger-causality test support bidirectional causality between financial innovation, economic growth and stock market development, and economic growth both in the long run and short run. These findings support the theory that market-based financial development and financial innovation in the financial system can spur economic development.
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Aşık, Bekir. "Economic Determinants of Turkish Inflation Rates: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach." Journal of Eurasian Economies 1, no. 1 (January 23, 2022): 16–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/j01.1.0103.

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Consumer price index-based inflation rates have increased in the recent years in Turkey due to increases in a number of variables, such as exchange rates, loans, money supply and GDP. In order to choose appropriate policies to reduce the inflation rates, policy makers should determine the economic determinants of inflation accurately. In this paper, the economic determinants of Turkish inflation rates are investigated using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test over the sample period of 2003-2021. In order to determine the economic determinants of inflation rates, money supply, dollar/TL exchange rates, interest rates, consumer loans and GDP are selected as explanatory variables. According to the results of this study, in the short-run the lagged values of inflation and dollar/TL exchange rate have an effect on inflation rates; and in the long-run the real money balances is the most effective variable. The relation between the real interest rate and inflation rates are weak both in the short- and in the long-run.
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Chaudhary, Shashi Kant. "Remittances Economic Growth and Investment Nexus: Evidence From Nepal." NRB Economic Review 34, no. 1 (September 5, 2022): 1–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/nrber.v34i1.47991.

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This paper assesses the contribution of remittances on GDP and private gross fixed capital formation of Nepal by employing the ARDL bound test approach. The model incorporates the level of financial development, and the institutional quality of Nepal as regressors in addition to the macroeconomic regressors recognised by the literature. Perron’s (1997) innovation outlier model of breakpoint unit root test has been used to confirm the suitability of the variables in the ARDL bounds test approach. The findings show a positive effect of remittances on GDP while a negative effect on private gross fixed capital formation. The paper concludes that remittances do not act as a source of capital flows in the context of Nepal, rather they behave as compensatory transfers to the recipient households. To align remittances in productive activities such as self-employment, financial investment, etc., a remittance-focused policy is advised to reach out the recipients and provide them rigorous advisory and training supports.
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LÖGÜN, Anıl, and Rahman AYDIN. "INVESTIGATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TURKEY AND DEVELOPED STOCK MARKETS IN THE PANDEMIC PERIOD: ARDL BOUND TESTING APPROACH." EUROASIA JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES & HUMANITIES 8, no. 21 (July 25, 2021): 36–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.38064/eurssh.221.

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The integration of stock markets is an essential issue for international investors who aim to make short and long term investments. This paper examines Turkey and developed stock markets co-movements during the pandemic. International portfolio diversification advantages are investigated for Turkish investors who have a portfolio in developed markets. For this purpose, the long-term relationship between stock markets is analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test. The study covers January 2019 and April 2021, and this period is divided into two separate periods, pre-pandemic and pandemic. The results of ARDL bounds tests have not found a cointegration relationship between stock markets in both the pre-pandemic period and the pandemic period. Granger causality test results show that NIKKEI 225 (Japan), DAX (Germany), FTSE 100 (United Kingdom) and CAC 40 (France) are the cause of BIST 100 (Turkey) in the pre-pandemic period. However, Granger causality test results show that there is no causality relationship during the pandemic period. Turkish stock market investors investing in developed stock markets will benefit from portfolio diversification in the long term.
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Dangal, Dil Nath. "Tertiary Education and Economic Growth of Nepal: An ARDL-ECM Analysis." Humanities and Social Sciences Journal 13, no. 2 (December 1, 2022): 15–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hssj.v13i2.49799.

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This study examined the relationship between tertiary schooling and economic growth in Nepal. The autoregressive distributed-lagged (ARDL) bound test for cointegration and error-correction method (ECM) were employed. Time series data of 1989/90 to 2018/19 were taken into consideration. Updated time series and ARDL bounds test were applied for cointegration with ECM analysis to estimate the aimed relationship between variable of interests. Economic growth (RGDP) as dependent variable, education (GERT) as a regressor, and controlled variables––physical capital, labor force, and CPI––were used. The results of the study revealed cointegration between education and economic growth, confirming their long-run relationship. The negative and significant ECT1-t strengthened the presence of long-run relationship among RGDP and GERT. This study found tertiary schooling as a productivity enhancer of human capital in Nepal. Based on this finding, this study recommends promoting the tertiary schooling through adequate financing.
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Atinafu, Wondatir. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: Evidence from ARDL Bound Test Approach." Dynamic Econometric Models 19 (December 28, 2019): 57. http://dx.doi.org/10.12775/dem.2019.004.

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Jyoti. "Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on India’s Manufacturing Exports: An Empirical Investigation on Long-Run Relation." Journal of Asian Economic Integration 3, no. 1 (February 23, 2021): 61–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2631684620982426.

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After the collapse of the fixed exchange rate system of Bretton Woods, the fluctuations of exchange rate and its impact on macroeconomic performance and trade in countries around the world are becoming an increasing debate among researchers and policymakers. This study empirically investigates whether fluctuations in real exchange rate may affect real exports in the Indian context. The study has employed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test procedure to analyse the long-run relationship among variables using quarterly data from 2005Q1 to 2017Q4. The results of the ARDL bound test reveal that real exports are cointegrated with relative prices, real exchange rate volatility and world real GDP. The study has found negative but insignificant impact of exchange rate volatility on exports, but world GDP as a proxy of foreign economic activity and real effective exchange rate as relative prices have positive and statistically significant impact on Indian manufacturing exports. Further, the ARDL short-run error correction model implies that while the model may temporarily deviate from its long-run equilibrium, the deviations adjust towards the equilibrium level in the long run. JEL Codes: F01, F31, F14
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Khanal, Mohan. "Relationship between Macroeconomic Policy and Long-Run Economic Growth of Nepal." Quest Journal of Management and Social Sciences 3, no. 2 (December 25, 2021): 265–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/qjmss.v3i2.41584.

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Background: The paper is an attempt to find the long-run relationship between macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Nepal. The variables in the study are run across the Cobb-Douglas production model. Objective: This paper examines the relationship between Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Population, Trade openness, Money Supply and GDP growth economic growth in Nepal. Method: The ARDL bound test and Error Correction model incorporated in the study to examine the long-run relationship among macroeconomic variables. Conclusion: Based on the Bound Test of F-statistics the Cointegration Result exists among the variable and ARDL (1,1,1,1,1) relation is estimated. Implications: Since the study has found the existence of a cointegration relationship on the variables of the study and the long-term relationship among economic growth is significant with GFCF. The policy should be targeted at investment growth in Nepal.
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Kadel, Suren Babu. "Deficit Budget and Economic Growth in Nepal." Management Dynamics 24, no. 1 (July 4, 2021): 151–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/md.v24i1.47555.

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This article attempts to identify the relationship between budget deficit and economic growth in Nepal. A deficit budget is associated with the role of government in the economy. On employing the ARDL bounds test on the data set from 1990 to 2020, it is found that there is a long-run relationship between the budget deficit and economic growth. The bound test and error correction term specify a long-run relationship between the Nepalese economy’s budget deficit and economic growth. According to the empirical study, the budget deficit significantly impacts real GDP, a proxy for economic growth.
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Yang, Zishuai, and Tae-Yeong CHOI. "The Relationship between Travel Consumer Price Index and Macroeconomic Variables in China : An Application of ARDL Bound Test." JOURNAL OF FISHRIES AND MARINE SCIENCES EDUCATION 32, no. 2 (April 30, 2020): 489–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.13000/jfmse.2020.4.32.2.489.

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EBENEZER, Mr Y. "Measuring Effectiveness Of Economic Growth On Reducing Infant Mortality Rate In Tamilnadu." Restaurant Business 118, no. 4 (April 4, 2019): 129–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.26643/rb.v118i4.7993.

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This paper deals with economic growth and infant mortality rate in Tamilnadu. The objects of this paper are to test the relationship between Per capita Net State Domestic Product and infant mortality rate and also to measure the impact of Per capita Net State Domestic Product on infant mortality rate in Tamil Nadu. This analysis has employed the ADF test and ARDL approach. The result of the study shows that IMR got reduced and Per capita Net State Domestic Product increased during the study period. This analysis also revealed that there is a negative relationship between IMR and the economic growth of Tamilnadu. In addition, ARDL bound test result has concluded that per capita Net State Domestic Product of Tamilnadu has long run association with IMR.
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Nepal, Surendra Raj. "Determinants of Trade Deficit in Nepal: An Econometric Investigation." Nepalese Journal of Statistics 4 (December 18, 2020): 73–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/njs.v4i0.33498.

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Background: Nepal has been importing some of goods and services from other countries and is also capable of exporting some other goods and services to foreign countries. Because of over dependency on foreign goods, Nepal has been suffering from trade deficit for more than 45 years. Objective: This study aims to investigate the relationship of trade deficit in Nepal with its determinants by using econometric analysis where exchange rate, real gross domestic product and foreign direct investment are taken as determinants of trade deficit. Its main objective is to examine the long-run, short-run and causal relationship among the variables. Materials and Methods: Annual time series data from 1974/75 (from 1988/89 in case of FDI) to 2018/2019 obtained from different sources: Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Survey of Nepal, The World Bank and Department of Industry, Nepal Government were used in this study. Unit root test was used to check stationary. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), ARDL bound test and Error Correction Model (ECM) were applied to find short-run as well as long-run relationship. Finally, pair-wise causal relationship was tested by using Granger causality. Results: All variables were found to be stationary at first difference. The test statistic of ARDL bound test was 8.17 and was greater than upper bound of 6.36 at 1% significance level. Error correction term’s p-value was 0.0052 and the corresponding values for pair-wise Granger causality from trade deficit to FDI and FDI to trade deficit were 0.00009 and 0.00005, respectively. Conclusion: There was positive and significant long-run relationship between exchange rate and trade deficit whereas there was negative and significant long-run relationship between real GDP and trade deficit. Moreover, real GDP positively affected trade deficit in short-run. Furthermore, bidirectional causal relationship has been observed between FDI and trade deficit.
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Olubunmi, Amusa Bolanle, Nwagwu Chinedu John, Yusuf Modupe Ololade, and Sokunbi Gbenro Matthew. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An ARDL, Bound Test and ECM Approach." Saudi Journal of Business and Management Studies 04, no. 10 (October 31, 2019): 800–805. http://dx.doi.org/10.36348/sjbms.2019.v04i10.002.

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Al-Qudah, Ali Mustafa. "The Determinants of Tax Revenues: Empirical Evidence From Jordan." International Journal of Financial Research 12, no. 3 (January 11, 2021): 43. http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v12n3p43.

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The purpose of this study is to identify the determinants of tax revenues (TXR) in Jordan. The study covered the period (1990-2019) and used ARDL Bound test for co-integration, ARDL Long Run form, and ARDL Error Correction regression to examine the study hypotheses. The results of the bound test and co-integration equation (CointEq1) shows that there exists a long run relationship between (INDUST, LPCI, FD, FAID, GE, OPEN) and (TXR) in Jordan. The analysis results revealed that per capita GDP, fiscal deficit and government expenditure have a positive significant impact on tax revenues in the short run and long run. While, Foreign aids has a negative significant impact on tax revenues. Industrial sector Value added and economic openness have a positive significant impact in the short run while having a positive insignificant impact on tax revenues in the long run. The results explore that per capita GDP, fiscal deficit, foreign aids and government expenditure are good determinants for tax revenues in the short run as well as in the long run, while industrial sector value added and economic openness are good determinants in the short run. The findings suggest a reduction in government expenditure due to the upward trend in the fiscal deficit and public debt, and the continued increase in (GE) leading to more internal and external imbalances.
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Mahdi, Abubakar El-Sidig A. A. "Impact of Crude Oil Price Changes on Household Consumption Expenditure in Oman (1990-2016)." GATR Journal of Business and Economics Review 4, no. 2 (June 26, 2019): 97–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.35609/jber.2019.4.2(4).

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Objective – The preceding three years (2014, 2015, and 2016) saw a drop in the price of oil which has impacted all parts of Omani macroeconomic life. This study aims to identify the association between oil price changes and aggregate household consumption expenditure in the Sultanate by analyzing the long term relationship between the variables of interest. Methodology/Technique – The (ARDL) Autoregressive Distributed Lag bound test of co-integration is used with 27 annual observations obtained between 1990 and 2016. Findings – The statistical results show that there is a long term, positive relationship between the two variables. Novelty – As Oman is heavily dependent on oil, any fluctuation in the price of oil will undoubtedly cause instability in the economy (macroeconomic variables) demonstrating the presence of a robust correlation between consumption and oil prices. The bound test of the ARDL approach demonstrates this relationship. This study is therefore useful for Muscat officials to identify ways to reduce the dependency on oil. Type of Paper: Empirical Keywords: Total Household Consumption Expenditure; Crude Oil Price; Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL); Omani Economy. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Abubakar El-Sidig A.A Mahdi. 2019. Impact of Crude Oil Price Changes on Household Consumption Expenditure in Oman (1990-2016), J. Bus. Econ. Review 4 (2): 97 – 104. https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2019.4.2(4) JEL Classification: D1, D13, D19, E30.
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Al-Qudah, Ali Mustafa. "The Determinants of Tax Revenues: Empirical Evidence From Jordan." International Journal of Financial Research 12, no. 3 (January 11, 2021): 43. http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v12n3p43.

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The purpose of this study is to identify the determinants of tax revenues (TXR) in Jordan. The study covered the period (1990-2019) and used ARDL Bound test for co-integration, ARDL Long Run form, and ARDL Error Correction regression to examine the study hypotheses. The results of the bound test and co-integration equation (CointEq1) shows that there exists a long run relationship between (INDUST, LPCI, FD, FAID, GE, OPEN) and (TXR) in Jordan. The analysis results revealed that per capita GDP, fiscal deficit and government expenditure have a positive significant impact on tax revenues in the short run and long run. While, Foreign aids has a negative significant impact on tax revenues. Industrial sector Value added and economic openness have a positive significant impact in the short run while having a positive insignificant impact on tax revenues in the long run. The results explore that per capita GDP, fiscal deficit, foreign aids and government expenditure are good determinants for tax revenues in the short run as well as in the long run, while industrial sector value added and economic openness are good determinants in the short run. The findings suggest a reduction in government expenditure due to the upward trend in the fiscal deficit and public debt, and the continued increase in (GE) leading to more internal and external imbalances.
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Khan, Uzma, Aarif Mohammad Khan, Md Shabbir Alam, and Nouf Alkatheery. "Causation between Consumption, Export, Import, and Economic Growth of Oman." ETIKONOMI 21, no. 1 (March 16, 2022): 67–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.15408/etk.v21i1.20034.

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To examine the causation between consumption, export, import, and economic growth for the Sultanate of Oman using yearly time series data collected from the World Bank for 2000-2018. Further, it was tested by basic statistics, the Bound test with the ARDL model, and the Granger-causality tests. The findings of the Bound test analysis indicate the presence of both long-run and short-run associations among competing variables. The ARDL Model result reflects that imports have both short-run and long-run effects, supported by the Granger Causality tests by indicating the presence of unidirectional causality import to economic growth and import to consumption. The outcome of the study revealed that import is essential for economic growth as imports can absorb foreign technology in the domestic economy that can boost the export and further act as an engine of growth. How to Cite: Khan, U., Khan, A. M., Alam, M. D., & Alkatheery,N. (2022). Causation Between Consumption, Export, Import & Economic Growth of Oman. Etikonomi, 21(1), 67-78. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v21i1.20034.
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NPG, Samantha, and Liu Haiyun. "Does Inward Foreign Direct Investment Promote Export? Empirical Evidence from Sri Lanka." Business and Economic Research 8, no. 3 (May 31, 2018): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ber.v8i3.13061.

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Export-led growth hypothesis assumed that long-term economic growth can be achieved through higher exports. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is one of the determinants of export performance that can have a substitute effect or complementary relationship to export. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of inward FDI on the export performance of Sri Lanka during the period from 1980 to 2016. Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and bound test are applied to identify the long-run relationship and short-run dynamics of the selected variables. The short-run causality is checked by applying the Granger causality test. The ARDL bound test confirms long-run relationship among the variables. The study finds positive insignificant long run and short-run relationships between FDI and exports in Sri Lanka for the data period. Exports are highly sensitive to GDP and real effective exchange rate in the short-run and to domestic investment in the long-run. In order to promote exports via FDI, government policy should focus on attracting more FDI by drawing attention to national competitiveness. The study suggests a comprehensive sector level investigation on the impact of FDI on export performance of Sri Lanka.
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NASREEN, SAMIA, and SOFIA ANWAR. "FINANCIAL STABILITY AND THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL INTEGRATION IN SOUTH ASIA: EVIDENCE FROM TIME-SERIES DATA." Singapore Economic Review 65, no. 02 (March 8, 2017): 303–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217590817500011.

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Using the aggregate financial stability index (AFSI) which measures the gradual progression and changes in financial market stability, this paper empirically evaluates the impact of financial and economic integration on financial stability in South Asian countries using time-series data for the period 1980–2012. Auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach to cointegration is applied to ensure long-run relationship between variables. Bound F-test results confirm the long-run relationship between selected variables. The estimated results show that economic and financial integration has exerted a significant negative effect on financial stability in long run.
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Kyophilavong, Phouphet, John Luke Gallup, Teerawat Charoenrat, and Kenji Nozaki. "Testing tourism-led growth hypothesis in Laos?" Tourism Review 73, no. 2 (May 14, 2018): 242–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/tr-03-2017-0034.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Laos. Design/methodology/approach The authors test the tourism-led growth hypothesis using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration estimation (Pesaran et al., 2001) and Granger causality tests. Findings The results of this paper show that when tourism is forcing variable, there is no long-run relationship between tourism development and economic growth. The Granger causality test demonstrates that there is a uni-directional causality running from economic growth in tourism. Social implications The empirical results and policy recommendation may be useful for other small developing countries. Originality/value This study is the first study to investigate the relationship between tourism development and growth in Laos, using a relatively new econometric approach – ARDL bound testing.
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Anochiwa, Lasbrey, Oguwuike Michael Enyoghasim, Kalu E. Uma, C. Paul Obidike, Iyke Uwazie Uwazie, Ikwor Okoroafor Ogbonnaya, O. Richard Ojike, and Clara Kelechi Anyanwu. "ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS IN NIGERIA: EVIDENCE BASED ON ARDL BOUND TEST APPROACH." International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 10, no. 6 (October 10, 2020): 713–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.10021.

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36

Abdullahi, Muhammad Mustapha, Nor Aznin Bt Abu Bakar, and Sallahuddin B. Hassan. "Determining the Macroeconomic Factors of External Debt Accumulation in Nigeria: An ARDL Bound Test Approach." Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 211 (November 2015): 745–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.11.098.

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37

Baig, Nida, Shahbaz Khan, Naeem Gul Gilal, and Abdul Qayyum. "Do Natural Disasters Cause Economic Growth? An ARDL Bound Testing Approach." Studies in Business and Economics 13, no. 1 (April 1, 2018): 5–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/sbe-2018-0001.

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AbstractThis article strives to work out the causal relationship between natural disasters and economic growth in Pakistan. The study empirically tests the linkage using econometric techniques autoregressive distributed lag bound model by Pesaran (2001) and Granger causality test. We develop a proxy for the loss of natural disasters by a similar method as Noy (2009) and Bergholt et.al, (2012) did. The results of ARDL bounds testing approach evidence a negative long run relationship between the proxies of natural disasters and economic growth. The results of Granger Causality depict the uni-directional causality from natural disasters to economic growth both in short-run and long-run. Overall, the study determines that natural disasters deteriorate economic growth in Pakistan. This is the first study in Pakistan to assess the causal relationship among natural disasters and economic growth. So, further empirical evidence may link natural disasters to microeconomics and financial indicators. In future, researchers might control the impact of foreign development aid, remittances, political stability and country’s corruption rating. Natural disasters are an alarming issue and, addressing the questions related to their impacts on welfare of human being and economic growth of the countries contain significant importance in order to attract the attention of global development agencies and policymakers. As per INFORM (2015) risk index, Pakistan has the highest vulnerability towards natural disasters after Afghanistan. So, the study contains more significant value in context of Pakistan.
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Karahan, Pinar, and Nilgun Caglarirmak Uslu. "The Relationship between Credit Volume and Current Account Deficit: A Dynamic Analysis for Turkey." World Journal of Applied Economics 2, no. 1 (January 1, 2017): 31. http://dx.doi.org/10.22440/econworld.j.2016.2.1.pk.0019.

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One of Turkey’s most important macroeconomic problems is persistent current account deficit. Credit volume has been shown as one of the basic determinants of current account rate, especially after the global financial crisis in Turkish economy. The Central Bank of Turkey has begun to implement the policy to ensure financial stability by slowing down credit volume in response to current account deficit affected by rapid credit expansion after the global financial crisis of 2008. In this study, we investigated the relationship between credit volume and current account deficit covering the period of 2005:Q1- 2015:Q3 employing Bound test approach, ARDL model and Kalman filter method. Bound test results suggest the existence of co-integration relationship between current account deficit and credit volume. ARDL model results indicate that the credit volume is statistical significant and positively affects current account deficit in the short and long run. The results show that a 1 % increase in credit volume leads to nearly a 0.62 % increase in current account deficit. Kalman Filter method results indicate that the effect of credit volume on current account deficit increased after global financial crisis and started to decrease after 2013.
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39

Sakuntala, Dwita, M. Shabri Abd Majid, Aliasuddin Aliasuddin, and Suriani Suriani. "Causality between Green Stock Market with Monetary Policy, Global Uncertainty, and Environmental Damage in Indonesia." International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 12, no. 6 (November 28, 2022): 215–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.13348.

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The study examines the effect of monetary policy, global uncertainty and environmental damage on the green stock market in Indonesia in the long and short term, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test method. The ARDL bound test results show that there is cointegration in the long term between the green stock market and monetary policy, global uncertainty and environmental damage. Empirical evidence finds that in the long term, the variables that affect the green stock market in Indonesia are monetary policy from interest rates, global uncertainty and environmental damage from carbon emissions. While in the short term the variables that affect the green stock market are interest rates without lag, lag 1, lag 2 and lag 3; global uncertainty in lag 1 and lag 2; and carbon emissions without lag and lag 1; while forest damage without lag shows a very weak effect at the 10% significance level. Coefficient also shows significant and negative sign. A deeper analysis found that there is a bidirectional causality from monetary policy to green stock markets and vice versa, and from carbon emissions to green stock markets and vice versa.
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Ali, Hina, and Zahra Masood Bhutta. "Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus in Pakistan: An Analysis of Bound Testing Approach." Sukkur IBA Journal of Economics and Finance 2, no. 1 (September 6, 2018): 10. http://dx.doi.org/10.30537/sijef.v2i1.199.

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This study researches on the financial development and economic growth in Pakistan. The study demonstrates the correlation connecting financial development and economic growth from the range of time, 1974 - 2014. For checking the stationarity of variables, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Philip-Peron (P.P) unit root technique is applied. To elaborate long-run relationship, ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) and Bound test is conducted. By ARDL technique, study investigate that Gross Domestic Product, Money supply, Exchange rate, Gross fixed capital formation, Domestic Savings and Trade Openness are assimilated. According to research findings: economic growth directly related to money supply (M2) and domestic saving in long-run but money supply illustrates insignificant impact. The study uses GDP as endogenous variable and represents Economic growth. While M2 as exogenous variable which represents financial development and financial liberalization. Current researches seek to establish direct relation of economic growth with trade openness and money supply. Pakistani researchers aim to examine the association of economic policies with financial satisfaction over the globe.
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41

Stamatiou, Pavlos, and Nikolaos Dritsakis. "The Effects of FDI on Greek Economy: An Empirical Analysis." International Journal of Accounting and Finance Studies 2, no. 2 (July 23, 2019): p39. http://dx.doi.org/10.22158/ijafs.v2n2p39.

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This paper investigates the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on economic growth in Greece, within a framework that also accounts unemployment rate, using annual data covering the period 1970 to 2017. Several econometric models are applied including the ARDL bound test approach for cointegration as well as ECM-ARDL model for causality. The results of the study confirm the existence of a long run relationship among the examined variables. The Granger causality results indicated a strong unidirectional causality between economic development and foreign direct investments with direction from economic development to foreign direct investments. Finally, the variance decomposition method and the impulse response functions are used to test the strength of causality between the variables. The results of the study offer new perspectives and insight for new policies for sustainable economic development, increasing investments and reducing unemployment.
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Prasetyo, Alvin Sugeng. "Determinants of Demand For Money and The Velocity of Money in Indonesia." Journal of Developing Economies 3, no. 2 (December 20, 2018): 10. http://dx.doi.org/10.20473/jde.v3i2.10464.

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The demand for money is one of many monetary economics topics that is popular in every country. This study aims to test and analyze some influential factors of the demand for money and the velocity of money in Indonesia. The data source of this study takes from the International Financial Statistics. The method used is ARDL with a period of 2000Q1-2017Q4. The result of the analysis shows that all the variables are stationary on the I (0), a Bound test shows there are cointegration and the selected model that is ARDL (4, 2, 0, 0, 0). The study concludes that the economic growth and the growth rate of the rupiah/USD give a significant effect toward the growth of M2 in the long term and short term, and the velocity of money in Indonesia has an increased trend.
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Kriskkumar, Karunanithi, Niaz Ahmad Mohd Naseem, and Wan Ngah Wan Azman-Saini. "Investigating the Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price on the Economic Growth in Malaysia: Applying Augmented ARDL and Nonlinear ARDL Techniques." SAGE Open 12, no. 1 (January 2022): 215824402210799. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/21582440221079936.

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This paper attempts to investigate if the effect of oil price on growth is asymmetrical for Malaysia, a small-open-dynamic oil-exporting country, over a period from 1981 to 2017. The empirical method employed in this study is the augmented autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bound test approach and the recent innovative nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Results suggest that neglecting nonlinearities can lead to misleading results. More precisely, the result reveals that adjustments in the price of oil influence Malaysia’s economic growth asymmetrically. An increase and decrease in the price of oil strengthen the economic growth of Malaysia, demonstrating Malaysia’s ability to be both an oil-producing country and a trading nation. These results strongly imply that Malaysia is able to take advantage of changes in the oil price efficiently.
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44

Shah, R. K., and Tara Prasad Bhusal. "Nexus between Public Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nepal." Economic Journal of Nepal 40, no. 1-4 (December 31, 2017): 28–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ejon.v40i1-4.35946.

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The article attempts to identify the relationship between public expenditure and economic growth in Nepal. Public expenditure is a fundamental element for the economic growth. On employing, ARDL bound test on data set for the period of 1975-2016, it is found that there in a long-run relationship between the public expenditure and economic growth. The bound test and error correction term clearly specify that there exists a long run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in Nepalese economy. From the empirical study, it is found that government expenditure has significant influence on real GDP, which is proxy for economic growth. The study confirms the Keynesian theory of making government expenditure to boost economic growth of Nepal.
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45

Mansoor Ahmed, Koondhar, Qiu Lingling, Li Houjian, Liu Weiwei, and He Ge. "A nexus between air pollution, energy consumption and growth of economy: A comparative study between the USA and China-based on the ARDL bound testing approach." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 64, No. 6 (June 15, 2018): 265–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/101/2017-agricecon.

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The aim of the study is to investigate and compare the correlation between energy consumption, air pollution and economic growth in China and the USA. Both countries are powerful economic countries in the world, thus we attempt to know whether energy consumption and air pollution vary as the economy develops. The data for the research spanning from 1970 to 2014 was gathered from an indicator of the World Bank. The time span was decided due to the data availability of both countries. To examine the long-run equilibrium relationship, there was performed the ARDL bound test. Results of unit root indicated that all the variables were integrated of order one. In the case of the ARDL bound test, the values of F-statistics exceeded the upper bound value, which means they are statistically significant. The estimation results substantiated the positive coefficient of energy consumption at the 1% significance level in China, implying that air pollution can increase as the energy consumption rises in China. However, the empirical results of the USA were exactly on the contrary. The outcomes of the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests revealed that all coefficients in both the short- and long-run models were stable. Based on the above analysis, the study suggests that China should adopt innovation and environmentally friendly modern technologies. Specifically, China ought to inspire and motivate energy saving and low-carbon research innovations, energy saving industries, green investment and carbon sequester technologies as well as public environmental awareness creations to mitigate environmental deterioration and climate change.
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46

Ahead Alfarkh, Aya, and Prof Ahmad Ibrahim Malawi. "أثر التحرير المالي على الاحتياطيات الأجنبية في الأردن." Jordan journal of applied sciences-Humanities​ Science Series 33, no. 1 (October 1, 2022): 15. http://dx.doi.org/10.35192/jjoas-h.v33i1.370.

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This study aimed to investigate the impact of financial liberalization on foreign reserves in Jordan over the period (1998-2018). Several diagnostic tests have been applied, such as Augmented Dickey- Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) test for Stationarity. The results have shown that all of the time series are not stationary in their levels, where are their first differences are stationaryaccording to Dickey- Fuller test (ADF), but the results have shown that some of the time series are stationary in their levels and some of them are stationary in the first difference according to Phillips-Perron test. Cusum stability test was applied for checking the stability of the model parameters, and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach was applied for the cointegration test. The results have shown the financial freedom (as a proxy variable for financial liberalization) has a positive statistically significant impact on foreign reserves. So this study recommends to extend financial liberalization in order to increase foreign reserves in Jordan. Keywords: Financial Liberalization, Foreign reserves, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model.
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Pachiyappan, Duraisamy, Yasmeen Ansari, Md Shabbir Alam, Prabha Thoudam, Kuppusamy Alagirisamy, and Palanisamy Manigandan. "Short and Long-Run Causal Effects of CO2 Emissions, Energy Use, GDP and Population Growth: Evidence from India Using the ARDL and VECM Approaches." Energies 14, no. 24 (December 10, 2021): 8333. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14248333.

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This paper investigates the nexus between CO2 emissions (CO2E), GDP, energy use (ENU), and population growth (PG) in India from 1980–2018 by comparing the “vector error correction” model (VECM) and “auto regressive distributed lag” (ARDL). We applied the unit root test, Johansen multi-variate cointegration, and performed a Variance decomposition analysis using the Cholesky approach. The VECM and ARDL-bound testing approaches to cointegration suggest a long-term equilibrium nexus between GDP, energy use, population growth and CO2E. The empirical outcomes show the existence of a long-term equilibrium nexus between the variables. The Granger causality results show that short-term bi-directional causality exists between GDP and ENU, while a uni-directional causality between CO2E and GDP, CO2E and ENU, CO2E and PG, and PG and ENU. Evidence from variance decomposition indicates that 58.4% of the future fluctuations in CO2E are due to changes in ENU, 2.8% of the future fluctuations are due to changes in GDP, and 0.43% of the future fluctuations are due to changes in PG. Finally, the ARDL test results indicate that a 1% increase in PG will lead to a 1.4% increase in CO2E. Our paper addresses some important policy implications.
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48

Lin, Feng-Li, Roula Inglesi-Lotz, and Tsangyao Chang. "Revisit coal consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth nexus in China and India using a newly developed bootstrap ARDL bound test." Energy Exploration & Exploitation 36, no. 3 (November 22, 2017): 450–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0144598717741031.

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This study revisits coal consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth nexus for both China and India using a newly developed Bootstrap ARDL model over the period of 1969–2015. Empirical results indicate no long-run relationship among these three variables for both China and India, and Granger causality test based on Bootstrap ARDL model indicates a feedback between coal consumption and economic growth, between economic growth and CO2 emissions and between coal consumption and CO2 emissions in China. However, we find a one-way Granger causality running from coal consumption to economic growth and the feedback hypothesis is confirmed between economic growth and CO2 emissions and between coal consumption and CO2 emissions in India. The coefficients signal that coal consumption is an important factor towards the promotion economic growth in both China and India. For China, higher economic growth reduces CO2 emissions, while for India, it further increases CO2 emissions. Our empirical results have important policy implications for the government conducting effective energy polices to promote economic growth in both China and India.
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Singh, Amar, and Arvind Mohan. "An Empirical Model for the Indian Foreign Investment and Stock Market Volatility: Evidence From ARDL Bounds Testing Analysis." International Journal of Financial Research 11, no. 2 (March 16, 2020): 154. http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v11n2p154.

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Foreign investment is a major factor to determine volatility in the stock market. To discover the influence on Stock Market volatility of foreign investment we have considered FE, FD, and FDI as proxy variables of foreign investment and Indian stock market volatility is represented by Indian vix. The period for this study is 2009 to 2017 (monthly data). To address this issue of volatility in the long/short-run we have applied the ARDL. The preference given to the ARDL model over Johansen co-integration is to the difference in the order of integration among the variables. ARDL model allows us to combine the I(0) and I(1) series whereas I(1) required in the case of Johansen approach. Results of unit root confirm the I(0)/I(1) order of integration, which allows us to apply the ADRL bound test. F-statistics is higher than the upper bound critical value at 10%, 5% and providing the evidence of co-integration among variables at a 5% level of significance. Hence, there is a long-run relationship amid the variables. Long-run form results show the negative sign of the coefficient and it is significant. The ECM value is (-0.9671) and it confirms that nearly 96.71 % of the inaccuracy rose in each period and automatically corrected in specified time period.
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Khan, Yousaf Ali. "Investigating and estimating the size of Shadow Economy by using monetary approach: Case study of Malaysia." Frontiers in Management and Business 3, no. 2 (2022): 219–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.25082/fmb.2022.02.003.

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The purpose of this study is to explore and estimate the size of Shadow Economy of Malaysia. This study used annual Time series data from 1980 to 2018, introduced Lending Interest Rate as additional variable for the first time to estimate the Shadow or dim Economy, and focused on the Currency Demand Approach (CDA) which is the best way of estimation the size of S.E. The results of ARDL, Unit Root Test (ADF) and Bound Test have also generated for the purpose. And this study investigated positive relationship between Currency Circulation to Money Supply Ratio and GDP, Inflation, Interest rate, and Total Tax Revenue through ARDL and estimated the required Shadow Economy, and also explored the Shadow Economy of Malaysia and estimated the size of S.E. Size of tax evasion community has also derived by present research which represent that taxes are not the only measures of Shadow Economy.
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