Academic literature on the topic 'ARDL bound test'
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Journal articles on the topic "ARDL bound test"
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Mohd Nasir, Noormahayu Binti, Zarul Azhar Nasir, Norasyikin Abdullah Fahami, Muhammad Adidinizar Zia Ahmad Kusairee, and Khalijah Ramli. "Malaysia’s Healthcare Expenditure: ARDL Bound Test." ADVANCES IN BUSINESS RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL 7, no. 2 (October 31, 2021): 267. http://dx.doi.org/10.24191/abrij.v7i2.13340.
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This study aims to analyse the relationships between income level, education expenditure, inflation, and ageing population towards health expenditure in Malaysia over the period of 1997 until 2017. This study employs Autoregressive Distributed-Lag (ARDL) Bound test in determining the long-run empirical relationships between all independent variables and healthcare expenditures in Malaysia. The findings show the existence of long run cointegration between healthcare expenditure inflation, income level, and the government’s education expenditure. The results confirmed that all independent variables have positive long run relationships, except the ageing population that displays a negative relationship in influencing healthcare expenditure in Malaysia. The regression result of GDPP shows income elasticity value of 0.690, reflecting the necessity of healthcare expenditure. The outcome of the paper hopes to provide insights on the importance of healthcare expenditure for the development of this country, especially on its economic fronts.
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BULUT, Erol, and İbrahim TOKATLIOĞLU. "Augmented Taylor Rule Analysis for Turkish Economy: ARDL Bound Test." Fiscaoeconomia 6, no. 3 (September 14, 2022): 976–1002. http://dx.doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1063913.
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Enflasyonla mücadelede son zamanlarda en çok başvurulan politikalardan birisi de enflasyon hedeflemesi politikasıdır. Uygulamada geniş kabul gören bu politikanın hedefi gerçekleştirmek için kullandığı araçlardan bir tanesi ise, merkez bankalarının nominal faiz oranlarını enflasyondaki gelişmelere göre belirleme kabiliyetidir. Nominal faiz üzerindeki ana tartışma konusu, merkez bankalarının nominal faiz oranlarını hangi düzeyde belirleyeceğidir. Bunun için Taylor (1993) çalışmasında oldukça kullanışlı ve literatürde genel kabul gören bir kural geliştirmiştir. Bu kurala göre cari enflasyon düzeyi ile hedeflenen enflasyon arasındaki fark ile cari ve potansiyel büyüme arasındaki fark nominal faiz oranının değişim hızını belirlemektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye için Ocak 2003-Ekim 2021 dönemi arasında genişletilmiş Taylor denklemi ARDL Sınır Testi ve Kayan Pencere Yöntemi ile tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre Türkiye’de genişletilmiş Taylor Denklemi 2008 küresel kriz dönemine kadar etkin bir şekilde çalışırken, krizi dönemi ve sonrasında Taylor denkleminin istikrarı bozulmuş görünmektedir.
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Shah, Imtiyaz Ahmad, and Imtiyaz ul Haq. "The Impact of Tourism Development and Economic Growth on Poverty Reduction in Kazakhstan." Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business 10, no. 1 (September 1, 2022): 77–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/auseb-2022-0005.
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Abstract The paper examines the long-run relationship between poverty reduction, economic growth, and tourism development in Kazakhstan during the period of 2001–2017. We expand the basic model by including other poverty determinants such as inequality, unemployment, and spending on health. We use the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to test the co-integration of variables, as the ARDL bound test of co-integration is less restrictive and provides more reliable coefficients than other time series econometric models. The ARDL bound test results show that there exists a long-run relationship between the said variables. The coefficients of all variables have the expected signs in the long run.
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Myovella, Godwin Aloyce, and Zakayo Samson Kisava. "Budget deficit and inflation in Tanzania: ARDL bound test approach." Pressacademia 7, no. 1 (March 30, 2018): 83–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.17261/pressacademia.2018.797.
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Thanabalasingam, T. "The Role of Political Stability, Labor Market and Education on Migration: The Empirical Evidence from Sri Lanka." Business and Economic Research 10, no. 2 (June 8, 2020): 372. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ber.v10i2.16988.
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This study employs annual data from Sri Lanka over the period of 1990 – 2018 in order to investigate the impact of political instability and the existence of violence, unemployment rate, wage differential and level of education on migration. ADF unit root test confirmed that none of the variables are I(2), which allows us to examine the long run relationship between the variables using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound testing method. AIC is suggested to adapt ARDL (1, 0, 0, 2, 0) model among the top 20 models. ARDL Bound testing approach identified the cointegrating relationship between the variables. The results of both ARDL Bound test and the ARDL version of ECM detected that unemployment rate, political instability and the existence of violence/terrorism and level of education have a positive and significant impact on net migration whereas wage differential do not have significant impact on it even though it affect the net migration negatively both in the long run and in the short run respectively. Also, the coefficients of long run results and the Wald test confirm that the impact of unemployment rate is higher than wage differential, political instability and level of education on net migration in the long run. The result of CUSUM test of selected ARDL model discloses that the estimated model is stable and this model passes the all the diagnostic test. Moreover, Granger causality test identified a causal relationship that stemming from unemployment to net migration, wage differential to net migration, political instability to net migration and level of education to net migration. These findings could be useful to policy makers when they formulating and implementing the policy related to labor markets and good governance.
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Osadume, Richard, and Uzoma, C. Blessing. "Maritime Trade and Economic Development: A Granger Causality and Bound Test Approach." LOGI – Scientific Journal on Transport and Logistics 11, no. 2 (November 1, 2020): 23–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/logi-2020-0012.
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AbstractThis paper investigates Maritime trade and economic development: A granger causality and Bound test approach. Most scholars believe that maritime trade openness will transform economy into a developed nation while some disagree. The main objective of this research is to examine the relationship between maritime trade and economic development; specifically, to ascertain whether maritime trade granger-causes economic development; and to determine whether there is a co-integration between maritime trade and economic development. The study used secondary data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the United Nations development Programme, and tested the effect of independent variables on a dependent variable. The variables were tested using Stationarity, heteroskedasticity, Ramsey reset, granger-causality and ARDL Bounds test at the 5% level of significance. The findings revealed that maritime trade proxy by trade openness had a significant effect on economic development captured by HDI and the ARDL Bound test showed a significant effect of trade openness on economic development. The study concludes that maritime trade granger-causes economic development with a Bi-directional causal relationship and significant co-integration exists between them; and recommends among others the provision of conducive environment and cheap funding by the government to encourage the growth of maritime trade.
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Garba Mohammed Guza, Ahmed Balarabe Musa, and Sunday Elijah. "Violent Crime and Unemployment in Nigeria: An ARDL Bound Test Cointegration." Journal of Economic Info 6, no. 4 (November 24, 2019): 21–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.31580/jei.v6i4.1097.
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This study attempts to examine whether there is a long-run relationship existing between crime rates and unemployment in Nigeria for the period 2004 to 2016. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach was used to determine the cointegration between unemployment and crime rates. The results show that unemployment and crime (murder, armed robbery, robbery, assaults, sexual offense, and cultism) are cointegrated. The empirical findings show that the unemployment rate and violent crime, such as; armed robbery, robbery-murder, assaults, sex violence, and cultism are all cointegrated. The long-run coefficients results indicated that the unemployment rate has a positive and significant effect on murder, sex violence, assaults, and cultism
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IYO Ipeghan, Dr, Dr EKPETE Marshall Simon, and EKPETE Kinsley Simon. "Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Approach of Financial Intermediation of Commercial Banks and Risk in Nigeria." Sumerianz Journal of Economics and Finance, no. 312 (December 16, 2020): 246–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.47752/sjef.312.246.264.
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This study empirically examines the relationship between financial intermediation of commercial banks and risk in Nigeria spanning from 2007-2019 and utilizing the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration and Granger causality analysis. The result of the ARDL bounds test reveals a stable long run relationship between the dependent and independent variables with greater bound value of 16.02. The ARDL results also reveal the presence of short and long run positive and significant relationship between loans and advances and risk factors. The finding of the Granger causality reveals bidirectional causality between loans and advances and risk factors. The study recommends that commercial banks should continue their short term lending of credit for investment as default has been drastically reduced in lending to customers.
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Elian, Mohammad I., Nabeel Sawalha, and Ahmad Bani-Mustafa. "Revisiting the FDI–Growth Nexus: ARDL Bound Test for BRICS Standalone Economies." Modern Applied Science 14, no. 6 (May 13, 2020): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/mas.v14n6p1.
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In this paper the author tests for the short-run dynamics and long-run cointegration relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and economic growth for the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) standalone economies controlling for real exchange rate, trade openness, and domestic investment. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing method of cointegration is used to test for the long-run relationship of our FDI time series model by investigating annual macroeconomic datasets for the years 1981 to 2018 (inclusive). Coupled with the ARDL, the error correction model is applied to test for the short-run dynamics, while the Toda Yamamoto test is used to examine the causality direction between the constructs of interest. The Breusch-Godfrey and Ljung-Box are used as diagnostic tests for the ARDL assumptions of normality, independency, and autocorrelation in residuals, while the Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test is used to test for heteroscedasticity. According to the short-run estimates, all variables have a significant lagged impact on FDI inflows with slight differences among countries. As for the long run, estimates reveal a positive and significant impact of GDP on FDI inflows for Russia, India, China, and South Africa but a positive and insignificant relationship for Brazil. The long-run estimates for the controlling variables evidence varied results among the BRICS countries. In contrast to Brazil and Russia, the Toda Yamamoto causality test discloses a significant and unidirectional flow between the GDP growth and FDI inflows for India, China, and South Africa. The results have meaningful implications for policy reform structures, economic integration among economies, multinational firms, and portfolio managers.
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Muazu, Abdulrazak Umar, and Lawali Mohammad. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1970-2010: ARDL Bounds Test Approach." International Journal of Business Administration and Management Research 1, no. 1 (June 15, 2015): 4. http://dx.doi.org/10.24178/ijbamr.2015.1.1.04.
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This paper analyses the impact of public expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria during the period 1970 to 2010 making use of annual time series data. The study employs the bounds testing (ARDL) approach toexamine the long run and short run relationships between public expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria. The bounds test suggested that the variables of interest put in the framework are bound together in the long-run. The associated equilibrium correction was also significant confirming the existence of long-run relationships. Our findings indicate the impact of total public spending on growth to be negative which is consistent with other past studies. Recurrent expenditure however was found to have little significant positive impact on growth. Therefore, government should increase its spending on infrastructure, social and economic activities.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "ARDL bound test"
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Yu, Shengjin. "The relationship between consumptions and incomes for China and India : An ARDL Bound Test Approach." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-15360.
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China and India have many in common, are geographically large developing countries with enormous populations, but with notably different economic systems. This paper focus on exploring the relationship between GDP and consumption behaviors in China and India over the period 1978-2006. We use GDP as a proxy to represent income and household final consumption as a proxy to represent consumption. The long run relations are estimated by ARDL (1, 1) model. We find that India’s consumption is in the line of theory. But the relationship between GDP and consumption in China is unique, in terms of a negative intercept, a negative time trend and a larger than one marginal propensity to consumption. This may due to two possible explanations. First, after almost 30 years high growth households in China are optimistic to their future incomes. They prefer to borrowing for smoothing their consumptions. Second, there might have winding income what are not in the statistics. Finally, we adopt a series of diagnostic tests to check if selected models are strong enough and analysis the results.
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Altin, Mehmet. "Economic Sentiment Indicator as a Demand Determinant in Tourism: A Case of Turkey." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/42577.
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Tourism is one of the fastest growing industries in the world, employing approximately 220 million people and generating over 9.4% of the world's GDP. The growing contribution of tourism is accompanied by an increased interest in understanding the major factors which influence visitation levels to those countries. Therefore, finding the right variables to understand and estimate tourism demand becomes very important and challenging in policy formulations. The purpose of this study is to introduce Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) to the field of tourism demand studies. Using ESI in demand analysis, this study will assist in the ability to tap into individuals' hopes and/or worries for the present and future.
The study developed a demand model in which the number of tourist arrivals to Turkey from select EU countries is used as the dependent variable. ESI along with more traditional variables such as Interest Rate, Relative Price, and Relative Exchange Rate were brought into the model as the independent demand determinants. The study utilized such econometric models as ARIMA for seasonality adjustment and ARDL Bound test approach to cointegration for the long and short-run elasticities. ESI was statistically significant in 8 countries out of 13, three of those countries had a negative coefficient and five had a positive sign as proposed by the study.
The study posits that ESI is a good indicator to gauge and monitor tourism demand and adding the visitors' state of mind into the demand equation could reduce errors and increase variance in arrivals. Policy makers should monitor ESI as it fluctuates over time. Since we do not have direct influence on travelers' demand for tourism, it is imperative that we use indirect approaches such as price adjustment and creating new packages or promotional expenditures in order to influence or induce demand. Using this information generated from the study, government officials and tourism suppliers could adjust their promotional activities and expenditures in origin countries accordingly.Master of Science
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Sagir, Serhat. "Effects Of Monetary Policy On Banking Interest Rates: Interest Rate Pass-through In Turkey." Master's thesis, METU, 2011. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12613717/index.pdf.
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In this study, the effects of CBRT monetary policy decisions on the consumer, automobile, housing and commercial loans of the banks during the period from the early of 2004 to the middle of 2011 are examined. In order to perform this study, it is benefited from weekly weighted average loan interest rate data of the banks, which is the data having the highest frequency that could be obtained from the electronic data distribution system of CBRT.
Monetary policy instruments of Central Bank may change in the course of time or monetary policy could be executed by more than one instrument. Therefore, as the political interest rate would be insufficient in the calculation of the effect of monetary policy on loan interest rates of the banks, Government Dept Securities&rsquopremiums are used instead of the political interest rates in this study to make it reflect the policies of central bank more clearly as a whole. Among the Government Dept Securities that have different maturity structure, benchmark bonds that are adapted to the expected political interest rate changes and that react to the unexpected interest rate changes at the high rate (reaction coefficient 0.983) are used. In order to weight the cointegration relation between interest rates, unrestricted error correction model is established and it is determined by Bound Test that there is a long-term relation between each interest rate and interest rate of benchmark bond. After a cointegration relation is determined among the serials, autoregressive distributed lag model is used to determine the level of transitivity and it is determined that monetary policy decisions affect the banking interest rate at 77% level and by 13 weeks delay on average.
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Rosado, Pauline. "O crescimento económico e as emissões de CO2." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/19407.
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Mestrado em Métodos Quantitativos para a Decisão Económica e EmpresarialEm novembro de 1990, no primeiro relatório Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) foi reconhecido, pela primeira vez, que a combustão de energias fósseis tem consequências negativas sobre o ambiente. Desde essa data, a quantidade crescente de emissões de CO2 está associada ao processo das alterações climáticas. 40 anos depois da primeira conferência climática em 1979, as emissões de CO2 mundiais aumentaram de 85% acompanhando o PIB mundial que passou de 9.965 a 79.297 triliões de dólares. Neste enquadramento, este trabalho tem como objetivo perceber se existem relações de longo prazo entre o crescimento económico e as emissões de CO2 num conjunto de países através da especificação de modelos ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag). Perceber se essa relação existe é essencial para fundamentar as decisões governamentais. Este modelo é composto por 5 variáveis julgadas essenciais para esta análise: emissões de CO2 per capita, PIB per capita, o consumo de energia, a abertura comercial e a população urbanizada. Este trabalho abarca um horizonte temporal de 1971 a 2014 e tem em conta dados sobre 20 países com níveis de rendimento diferentes. Os resultados indicam que dos 20 países, tanto desenvolvidos como em desenvolvimento, 14 apresentam uma relação de longo prazo entre o crescimento económico e as emissões de CO2. Esta constatação permite concluir que é necessário e urgente que todos os países, desenvolvidos ou não, tenham uma agenda de políticas ambientais que promova a redução das emissões de CO2, em paralelo com o crescimento das suas economias.
In November 1990, in the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report it was recognized for the first time that combustion of fossil fuels has negative consequences for the environment. Since then, the increasing amount of CO2 emissions has been associated with climate change process. 40 years after the first climate conference in 1979, global CO2 emissions increased by 85% as the world GDP went from 9,965 to 79,297 trillion dollars. The countries' resilience to implement the solutions approved in the climate conferences in order to limit CO2 emissions and the continued increase in GDP has raised the question about the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions. In this context, this paper aims to understand if there are long-term relationships between economic growth and CO2 emissions in a set of countries, by specifying an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL). Understanding whether such a relationship exists is essential to ease government decisions. The model include 5 variables: per capita CO2 emissions, Gross Domestic Product per capita, energy consumption, trade openness and population in urban areas. This paper analyzes data between 1971 and 2014 and on 20 countries with different income levels. The results show that 14 of the 20 countries, both developed and developing, don't have a long term relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions. This finding allows to conclude that it is necessary and urgent that all countries, whether developed or not, have an environmental policy agenda that promotes the reduction of CO2 emissions while assuring economic growth.
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Martins, Diogo Miguel Gomes. "Do labour market reforms pay off? Unemployment and capital accumulation in Portugal." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/12572.
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Mestrado em Economia Monetária e FinanceiraEsta dissertação tem como propósito o estudo da relação de longo-prazo entre o desemprego, a acumulação de capital e as variáveis do mercado de trabalho em Portugal, entre o 1º trimestre de 1985 e o 4º trimestre de 2013. É utilizado o modelo ARDL-Bounds Test para realizar a estimação econométrica. A evidência encontrada sugere que a acumulação de capital foi o principal determinante da taxa de desemprego de longo-prazo (NAIRU), ao passo que as variáveis do mercado de trabalho têm um poder explicativo residual ou inexistente. Estes resultados sugerem que a NAIRU é endógena em relação à acumulação de capital. Com efeito, conclui-se que as reformas no mercado de trabalho propostas pela Troika foram inadequadas para o caso português, uma vez que foram baseadas num enquadramento teórico (a teoria da NAIRU exógena) não representativo do mercado de trabalho desse país.
The aim of this dissertation is to study the long-run relationship between unemployment, capital accumulation and labour market variables in Portugal for the 1985Q1-2013Q4 period. We use an ARDL-bounds test model to perform the econometric estimation. We find evidence that capital accumulation has been the main driver of long-run unemployment (NAIRU), whilst labour market variables have played either a negligible or an existent explicative role. It suggests that Portuguese NAIRU is endogenous relative to capital accumulation. Consequently, we conclude that the labour market reforms proposed by Troika were inadequate to the Portuguese case as they were based upon a theoretical framework (exogenous NAIRU model) that was not representative of the Portuguese labour market.
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Alcobia, João André Ferreira. "Functional and interpersonal distribution of income and economic growth in Portugal." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/16383.
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Mestrado em Economia Monetária e FinanceiraO objetivo desta dissertação de mestrado é estudar a relação de longo prazo entre a distribuição funcional e interpessoal do rendimento e o crescimento do PIB em Portugal para o período entre 1985 e 2016. O modelo econométrico escolhido é ARDL-bounds test. Há evidências de que a transferência de rendimento do fator capital para o fator trabalho tem efeitos positivos no crescimento de longo prazo de Portugal. O aumento nos rendimentos de topo (TOP 0,01%) também tem efeitos positivos, mas menores no crescimento de longo prazo. As razões invocadas para o aumento do peso do profit share são essencialmente as mesmas que o aumento dos rendimentos de topo. Conclui-se que os governos devem concentrar-se em medidas para aumentar o wage share e, consequentemente, propiciarão a aceleração do crescimento económico de longo prazo.
The objective of this master's thesis is to study the long-term relationship between the interpersonal and functional distribution of income and GDP growth in Portugal for the period between 1985 and 2016.The econometric model chosen is the ARDL-bounds test.There is evidence that the transfer of income from the capital to the labor factor has positive effects on the long term growth of Portugal. The increase in top yields (TOP 0,01%) also have positive but smaller effects.As the reasons given for the increase in the weight of profit share are essentially the same as the increase in top income, it is concluded that governments should be focused on measures to increase wage share and consequently reduce income inequality, having positive long-term economic growth effects.
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Shooshtari, Milad. "ELASTICITY OF DEMAND FOR NATURAL GAS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA." 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10222/49070.
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In this paper, we used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the bounds test approach to estimate the elasticity of demand for natural gas in Western and Central Canada. The best model specification selected by Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) for each province suggests that there exist long-run relationships between the dependent variable and independent variables for all provinces, except Ontario.
Consumption per capita in these provinces can be explained by natural gas prices, electricity prices, income, and heating degree days (a measurement for the weather factor) in levels for the selected specification. The results show that natural gas demand is very inelastic with respect to natural gas prices and also with respect to heating degree days.
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LIU, SHU HSIN, and 劉書昕. "Is Gold a Hedge instrument in Taiwan and US Markets?─Evidence from ARDL Bounds Test." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/67m5jd.
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碩士國立高雄應用科技大學
國際企業研究所
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The aim of this paper is to examine whether the gold is a hedge instrument in Taiwan and US markets by using the ARDL bounds test. The monthly data of gold price, stock, consumer product index(CPI), industrial production index(IPI) for Taiwan and US is used from 1997/01-2016/04. We use ADF unit root test and Phillips-Perron unit root test to test the unit root for these variable and the Zivot and Andrews unit root test to find the structure break point, and ARDL model (Pe-saran and Shin, 1998) to analyze the effect of gold in Taiwan and US markets. We find that 1. Taiwan stock market and income had significant effect gold in the short run. 2. US in-flation and income had significant effect Gold in the short run. 3. Gold is the hedge instrument against inflation in both Taiwan and US inflation in the long run. 4. During financial crisis, gold is the safe haven instrument for both Taiwan and US stock market in in the long run.
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Neves, Sónia Cristina Almeida. "Are electricity ordinary and special regimes driving economic activity?" Master's thesis, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.6/5988.
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This study focuses on the analysis of interactions between electricity generation sources under both the Special Regime and the Ordinary Regime in Spain, and their relationships with economic activity. The time span comprises data from January 2003 to September 2014. The Toda-Yamamoto causality test is carried out to check causality relationships. Both short- and long-run effects are assessed, by using the ARDL bounds test approach. Overall, the results reveal strong internal consistency when comparing the ARDL results with the causality analysis. On the one hand, a unidirectional causality running from the ordinary regime to the special regime was found. On the other hand, with respect to the ordinary regime there is empirical evidence for the energy-growth hypothesis. In the meantime, the special regime contributes to hampering economic growth in Spain.A presente dissertação estuda a interação entre fontes de geração de eletricidade através da produção sob regime especial e sob regime ordinário e a sua relação com a atividade económica. O estudo utiliza dados mensais de Janeiro de 2003 até Setembro de 2014. O teste de causalidade Toda-Yamamoto foi executado para averiguar quais as relações de causalidade existentes entre as variáveis. A metodologia ARDL bounds test permitiu capturar os efeitos de curto e de longo prazo em separado. Globalmente, os resultados das causalidades revelam grande consistência quando comparados com os resultados da metodologia ARDL. Os resultados sugerem a existência de uma causalidade unidirecional da produção de eletricidade em regime ordinário para o regime especial. Analisando o tradicional nexus pode-se concluir que a hipótese de feedback é verificada entre o regime ordinário e a atividade económica. Por outro lado, verifica-se também que o regime especial é um entrave ao crescimento da atividade económica.
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Nunes, André Francisco Roque. "Electricity generation mix and economic growth: What role is being played by nuclear sources and carbon dioxide emissions in France?" Master's thesis, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.6/5831.
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The gradual trend towards the electrification of the economies has raised new challenges. Focusing on France, this dissertation uses monthly data from January 2010 to November 2014, to study the challenge of the simultaneous integration of various sources of generation and their relationship with economic growth. For the analysis of the dynamics of interaction between electricity sources, the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach was shown to be appropriate, as it allows short- and long-run effects to be distinguished. The results indicate that nuclear energy has been a huge driver of economic growth in France, meanwhile leads to an environment with lower CO2 emissions. Renewables were shown to exert a negative effect on economic growth, which could be due to lack of investment in other sources of production due to the resilient position held by nuclear source. The substitution effect among sources is noticeable. The robustness of the results was checked with annual data, from 1970 until 2012, and the results are comparable with those from the monthly data.A presente dissertação visa analisar a interação simultânea entre as várias fontes de produção de eletricidade e o crescimento económico. Esta pesquisa foca-se em França, utilizando dados mensais a partir de Janeiro de 2010 até Novembro de 2014. Para analisar as diferentes dinâmicas de interação utilizou-se o modelo autorregressivo (ARDL). Esta metodologia permite fazer uma distinção entre efeitos de curto e de longo prazo. Os resultados demostram que a energia nuclear tem sido uma grande impulsionadora do crescimento da economia Francesa, e na diminuição das emissões de CO2. Sendo que, as energias renováveis revelam ter um efeito negativo no crescimento económico. De fato, este efeito pode ser causado pela falta de investimentos na implementação de energias renováveis, devido à posição dominante da energia nuclear, no sistema electroprodutor Francês. A robustez dos resultados foi verificada com dados anuais, de 1970 até 2012, através dos quais os resultados obtidos são comparáveis com os dos dados mensais, verificando o efeito de substituição entres as fontes de geração de eletricidade.
Books on the topic "ARDL bound test"
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White, William. The application of polystyrene bound tin hydride to a continuous flow reactor system for the reduction of alkyl and aryl halides. 1990.
Find full textBook chapters on the topic "ARDL bound test"
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Faizulayev, Alimshan, and Isah Wada. "Spillover Effect of Interest Rate Volatility on Banking Sector Development in Nigeria: Dynamic ARDL Bound Test Approach." In Global Issues in Banking and Finance, 111–25. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30387-7_8.
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Fahrani, Ramzi, and Azza Béjaoui. "On the Evolutionary Interplay Between Remittances, Financial Development, and Economic Growth." In Advances in Educational Marketing, Administration, and Leadership, 78–96. IGI Global, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-8003-4.ch004.
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In this chapter, the authors attempt to investigate the interaction between remittances and financial development and its impact on the economic growth over the period 1980-2016. In this respect, they apply the autoregressive distributed lag bound test (ARDL) approach on cross-country of data series from 1980 to 2016 to study the short- and long-run relationship of remittances and financial development with economic growth. The empirical results show that the direct effects of shipments on growth are significant. On the other hand, the impact of remittances on economic seems to be more significant by means of the financial development. It also shows that these shipments are more efficient in the case of a less developed informal sector, a politically stable economy, and a developed financial structure.
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Bhattacharyya, Rajib. "Changing Patterns of Energy Use and Its Linkage With Some Macroeconomic Variables in India and China." In Handbook of Research on Economic and Political Implications of Green Trading and Energy Use, 163–80. IGI Global, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-8547-3.ch009.
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Over the last decade there has been a gradual change in the global energy landscape, with fast-growing emerging markets overtaking the traditional centers in terms of energy demand. International Energy Outlook 2017 forecasts that energy consumption in non-OECD countries would increase by 41% between 2015 and 2040 in contrast to a 9% increase in OECD countries. The chapter focuses on two major areas: (1) examining the changing pattern of the composition of energy use in the two selected countries of Asia (India and China) and (2) examining the short-run and long-run relationship among energy use, GDP per capita, energy intensity, use of electricity power, extent of urbanization. Using ARDL bound test for the period 1990 to 2014 for the World Development Indicator data 2017-18, it reveals that the powerhouses of global energy demand growth are led by the developing economies of Asia (i.e., China, India, Indonesia, Morocco, Brazil, Singapore, and Thailand). In the case of India, a long-run association has been found between energy use and GDP per capita, energy intensity, use of electricity power, and extent of urbanization, but no instances are for China.
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Bhattacharyya, Rajib. "Changing Patterns of Energy Use and Its Linkage With Some Macroeconomic Variables in India and China." In Research Anthology on Clean Energy Management and Solutions, 1615–33. IGI Global, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-9152-9.ch070.
Full textAbstract:
Over the last decade there has been a gradual change in the global energy landscape, with fast-growing emerging markets overtaking the traditional centers in terms of energy demand. International Energy Outlook 2017 forecasts that energy consumption in non-OECD countries would increase by 41% between 2015 and 2040 in contrast to a 9% increase in OECD countries. The chapter focuses on two major areas: (1) examining the changing pattern of the composition of energy use in the two selected countries of Asia (India and China) and (2) examining the short-run and long-run relationship among energy use, GDP per capita, energy intensity, use of electricity power, extent of urbanization. Using ARDL bound test for the period 1990 to 2014 for the World Development Indicator data 2017-18, it reveals that the powerhouses of global energy demand growth are led by the developing economies of Asia (i.e., China, India, Indonesia, Morocco, Brazil, Singapore, and Thailand). In the case of India, a long-run association has been found between energy use and GDP per capita, energy intensity, use of electricity power, and extent of urbanization, but no instances are for China.
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Ari, Yakup. "The Impact of USD-TRY Forex Rate Volatility on Imports to Turkey from Central Asia." In Economic, Educational, and Touristic Development in Asia, 70–89. IGI Global, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-2239-4.ch004.
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The purpose of this study is to put out the impact of volatility of the USD-TRY forex rate on imports to Turkey from Central Asia. The volatility of the USD/TRY exchange rate is analysed with a conditional variance model which is Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model and its extensions. The other section of the methodology is an application of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test which is an efficient approach to determine the cointegration, long-term and short-term relations between macroeconomic variables. The exponential GARCH volatility of the exchange rate and the monthly trade data between the years 2005 and 2018 are used in the ARDL bounds test.
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Chaabouni, Sami, and Chokri Abednnadher. "The Determinants of Health Expenditures in Tunisia." In Health Economics and Healthcare Reform, 253–67. IGI Global, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-3168-5.ch015.
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This article examines the determinants of health expenditures in Tunisia during the period 1961-2008, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach by Pesaran et al. (2001). The results of the bounds test show that there is a stable long-run relationship between per capita health expenditure, GDP, population ageing, medical density and environmental quality. In fact, on the one hand there are the short-run and long-run results which reveal that health care is a necessity, not a luxury good. On the other hand, results of the causality test show that there is a bidirectional causal flow from health expenditures to income, both in the short and in the long run.
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Cergibozan, Raif, and Caner Demir. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Outflows from Turkey." In Outward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Emerging Market Economies, 227–43. IGI Global, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-2345-1.ch011.
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The aim of this study is to specify the determinants of the outward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows from Turkey. For this purpose, the ARDL Bounds Test is used in order to observe the possible relation between these flows and define potential factors that might have an effect on them. The evidences of the empirical analysis reveal that the destination countries' market size, the home country's development level, trade openness and wage rate are positively related to outward FDI while the home country's interest rate shows a negative relationship. Turkey's outward FDI is significantly determined by the opportunities of the foreign markets as well as the outstanding home country factors.
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Cergibozan, Raif, and Caner Demir. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Outflows from Turkey." In Foreign Direct Investments, 659–75. IGI Global, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-2448-0.ch028.
Full textAbstract:
The aim of this study is to specify the determinants of the outward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows from Turkey. For this purpose, the ARDL Bounds Test is used in order to observe the possible relation between these flows and define potential factors that might have an effect on them. The evidences of the empirical analysis reveal that the destination countries' market size, the home country's development level, trade openness and wage rate are positively related to outward FDI while the home country's interest rate shows a negative relationship. Turkey's outward FDI is significantly determined by the opportunities of the foreign markets as well as the outstanding home country factors.
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Çetin, Murat, Eyyup Ecevit, Fahri Seker, and Davuthan Günaydin. "Financial Development and Energy Consumption in Turkey." In Handbook of Research on Behavioral Finance and Investment Strategies, 297–314. IGI Global, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-7484-4.ch018.
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This chapter investigates the cointegration and causal relationship between financial development and energy consumption in the case of Turkey over the period 1960-2011. In doing so, the ARDL bounds testing and Johansen-Juselius approaches to cointegration and Granger causality test based on vectorerror correction model are employed. The empirical results show that the series are cointegrated. The empirical results also show a positive and statistically significant relationship between financial development and energy consumption in the long run. In addition, a unidirectional causality running from financial development to energy consumption is found in the short and long run. Thus, this chapter provides an empirical evidence that financial development is a determinant of energy consumption in Turkey. This chapter also presents some implications for Turkey's energy policy.
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Yılmaz Özsoy, Çiğdem. "Investigation Into the Relationship Between the Supply and Demand and Price of Ethereum: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach." In Ekonometride Güncel Yöntemler ve Uygulamalar, 37–46. Istanbul University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.26650/b/ss10.2021.013.03.
Full textConference papers on the topic "ARDL bound test"
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Razali, Radzuan, Habib Khan, Afza Shafie, and Abdul Rahman Hassan. "The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Malaysia: ARDL bound test approach." In 4TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON FUNDAMENTAL AND APPLIED SCIENCES (ICFAS2016). Author(s), 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4968159.
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Ersin, Özgür Ömer, and Mustafa Batuhan Tufaner. "An Econometric Analysis on the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c10.02163.
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The globalization process has accelerated the liberalization of foreign trade and capital movements. This acceleration is caused in widening and intensifying relations between foreign direct investment and foreign trade. This paper examines the foreign direct investments’ contribution to the foreign trade. The empirical study is based on time series analysis for Turkey and used monthly data over the period 1992-2017. Econometric techniques for time series are applied to test unit roots, Johansen cointegration test, ARDL bound model and Granger causality test. The test results indicate that there is a correlative relation between foreign trade and foreign direct investment. As a result foreign trade affects foreign direct investments.
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Ay, Ahmet, Şerife Özşahin, and Mustafa Gerçeker. "The Relationship between Nominal Exchange Rate and Sectoral Output: An Emprical Analysis." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c05.00901.
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In this study, it is investigated the existence of the long term relationship between nominal exchange rate and sectoral output for seven different sectors in Turkey by using control variables including money supply, total public expenditure, oil price and unemployment rate. For this purpose, possible relations are tried to be determined by using bound test and ARDL method for the period 1998 Q1-2011 Q3 with quarterly data. As a result of the bound test, it is achieved that there is a long term relationship in all sectors excluding construction. Based on this finding, it is estimated the long term coefficients and equations for the six sectors. These long term coefficients indicate that the rise in the TL/dollar nominal exchange rate affects sectoral output negatively in all sectors excluding finance because of the cost effects of imported input usage.
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Bedir, Serap, Dilek Özdemir, and Kerem Karabulut. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle for Eurasian Economies." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c05.00916.
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The presence of a relation between saving and investment which has been debated in the empirical literature following the pioneering of Feldstein-Horioka (1980) is paramount to the determination of economic policies. Feldstein-Horioka (1980) stated that the relationship between saving and investment depends on the degree of international capital mobility. A high correlation between saving and investment is often taken as evidence of capital immobility. The purpose of this study is to empirically test the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. The model developed within the context of the theoretical framework was estimated by means of panel ARDL (auto-regressive distributed lag bound test) approach which is a panel vector error correction method using the data for Eurasian economics for the period 1992-2011. The data is taken from World Development Indicators. The short-run analysis supports the Feldstein-Horioko hypothesis and captured from error correction model (ECM). The results of the bounds test suggest that there is a long run relationship between savings and investment. Therefore, the Feldstein–Horioko correlations are not a puzzle for our sample because of the low correlation and high capital mobility.
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Manga, Müge, Mehmet Akif Destek, Muammer Tekeoğlu, and Erkut Düzakın. "The Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c07.01689.
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The relationship between financial development and economic growth and the direction of causality between them have been received a lot of attention recently by many scholars. It is also important to analyze this relationship and the direction of causality due to implications of policies. In this study the relationship between financial development, trade liberalization and economic growth for Turkey are examined using three different models. Model 1, 2 and 3 investigate the effect of domestic loans to the private sector and trade liberalization on GDP, the impact of the domestic credit provided by banks to the private sector and trade liberalization on GDP and the effect of M2 money supply and M2 trade liberalization on GDP, respectively. Data extracted from World Development Indicators. Autoregressive-Distributed Lag Bound Test (ARDL) is used as a co-integration test to determine the long run relationship between variables. In addition, Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is utilized to test the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth according to the three financial indicators such as domestic loans to the private sector, the domestic credit provided by banks to the private sector and M2 money supply. According to the results there is a unidirectional relationship from economic growth to domestic loans to the private sector and the domestic credit provided by banks to the private sector. Additionally, the results indicate that a bidirectional relationship exist between M2 money supply and economic growth.
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Liu, Xiaoqin, and Hongyu Liu. "An ARDL bounds test approach to CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China." In 2011 International Conference on E-Business and E-Government (ICEE). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icebeg.2011.5876667.
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Heidari, Hassan, and Narmin Davoudi. "Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in Iran: An Application of Bounds Test Approach to Cointegration." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c01.00172.
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This paper examines the long-run relationship between exports, imports and economic growth in Iranian economy using annual data over the period of 1960-2007. As Iran is an oil-exporting country, and oil-export boom has a direct impact on the import demand function, and it leads to higher levels of consumption that impact on growth, we emphasize the role of the imports variable in this investigation. Moreover, following recent studies about importance of human capital in endogenous growth models, we extend Feder's model (1982) by entering a proxy for human capital. As Iranian economy has been subject to numerous shocks and regime shifts, we apply Bai and Perron (2003) test to detect any possible endogenous structural breaks. Hence, investigating data properties by concerning structural breaks shows that our variables are not in the same order of integration. This property convince us to use Bounds Test approach to cointegration developed by pesaran et, al. (2001) where it can be applied irrespective of order of integration of the variables. Finally, being sure about existence a long-run relationship between variables, ARDL approach and ECM employed to argue about short-run and long-run coefficient. The results reveal that while there is significant positive relationship between exports and economic growth, the effect of imports is insignificant and also human capital has a negative effect on growth both in short and long run.
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Bedir, Serap, and Arzu Tural Dikmen. "Fiscal Deficit and Inflation: New Evidences from Turkey Using a Bounds Testing Approach." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c05.00915.
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A well-established theory in macroeconomics is that governments running persistent deficits have sooner or later to finance those deficits with money creation, thus producing inflation. The fiscal view of inflation has been especially prominent in the developing country literature, which has long recognized that less efficient tax collection, political instability, and more limited access to external borrowing tend to lower the relative cost of seigniorage and increase dependence on the inflation tax. For this reason, the main factors which affecting inflation rate in developing countries are extremely important for policy makers as when the causes of inflation are correctly specified the appropriate policy change can be easily diagnosed and effectively implemented. The purpose of this study is to test the empirical relationship between inflation and the budget deficit for the Turkish economy by an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) analysis for the period 1970–2010. The data is taken from Republic of Turkey Ministry of Development and World Bank’s Database. The empirical findings indicates that fiscal deficit is one of the important variables of the price level along with other variables like interest rates, exchange rate, per capita income, trade of GDP. The short-run analysis captured from error correction model (ECM). The results of the bounds test suggest that there is a long run relationship between fiscal deficit and inflation. These findings drive important inferences for implications of monetary and fiscal policies.
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Benazić, Manuel, and Daniel Tomić. "Testing the stability of money multupliers for Croatia." In Organizations at Innovation and Digital Transformation Roundabout: Conference Proceedings. University of Maribor Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18690/978-961-286-388-3.5.
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This paper analyses the stability of monetary multiplication process in Croatia and its forecasting ability. The money multiplier approach assumes that the monetary authorities are able to control the monetary base through money multipliers by affecting the money supply and the rate of inflation. Thus, by controlling the monetary base, monetary authorities can achieve price stability. For implementing an effective and accurate monetary policy, money multipliers should be stable. The stability of money multipliers implies that different measures of money supply (i.e. different monetary aggregates) and reserve money are stationary or that different measures of money supply and reserve money are cointegrated. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to test for the stationarity of money multipliers and to determine the long-run relationship between different monetary aggregates and reserve money for Croatia using monthly data in the period from 2011 to 2019 and the bounds testing (ARDL) approach for cointegration. The results of the unit-root tests indicate that money multipliers are nonstationary, therefore unstable and inappropriate for the short-run policy purpose. On the other side, the existence of stable cointegration relationships suggests the validity of the money multiplier model in the long-run
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Can, Zeynep Gizem, Ufuk Can, and Harun Bal. "Inclusive Growth and Globalization: The Case of Turkey." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c11.02277.
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This study aims to determine the relationship between inclusive growth and globalization. Since both concepts are multidimensional and do not directly related data on these concepts, an inclusive growth index is formed which covers sixteen different data with the help of principal component analysis. The globalization data are compiled from the KOF Swiss Economic Institute and the relationship between them is determined by Engle-Granger cointegration, Granger causality and ARDL bounds tests. Econometric findings show that inclusive growth has accelerated in the period between 1991 and 2015, that there is a long-term relationship with the inclusive growth index and the globalization index. This situation is contradictory with the conclusion that the causality relationship in the literature is towards global growth through inclusive growth. Information, social, economic and financial globalizations are directly related to economic performance, education, health and infrastructure investments and its funding conditions.