Academic literature on the topic 'Anticipated in ation effect'

Nitric oxide from neuronal cells plays detrimental roles in glutamate neurotoxicity and in focal brain ischemia. Nitric oxide directly damages DNA, and breaks in the DNA strands activate poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP), which brings poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation of the nuclear proteins. The excessive activation of PARP is thought to cause depletion of ATP and the energy failure resulting in cell death. To clarify the involvement of poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation in ischemic insult, we examined poly(ADP ribosyl)ation by immunohistochemical methods and the protective effect of 3-aminobenzamide, which is a PARP inhibitor, on focal brain ischemia using an intraluminal permanent middle cerebral artery occlusion model in rats. Poly(ADP ribosyl)ation was widely and markedly detected 2 hours after the ischemic insult in the cerebral cortex and striatum in which infarction developed 24 hours later. The enhanced immunoreactivity of poly(ADP-ribose) gradually decreased, and 16 hours later, no immunoreactivity was detected. Intraventricular administration of 3-aminobenzamide (1 to 30 mg/kg) 30 minutes before the ischemic insult decreased infarction volume in a dose-dependent manner along with the immunohistochemical reduction of poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation. Pretreatment with 7-nitroindazole (25 mg/kg, intraperitoneally), a selective neuronal nitric oxide synthetase inhibitor, partially reduced poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation. These data suggest the involvement of poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation in the development of cerebral infarction.

Epigenetic states that allow chromatin fidelity inheritance can be mediated by several factors. One of them, histone variants and their modifications (including acetylation, methylation, phosphorylation, poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation, and ubiquitylation) create distinct patterns of signals read by other proteins, and are strictly related to chromatin remodelling, which is necessary for the specific expression of a gene, and for DNA repair, recombination, and replication. In the framework of chromatin-controlling factors, the poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation of nuclear proteins, catalysed by poly(ADP-ribose)polymerases (PARPs), has been implicated in the regulation of both physiological and pathological events (gene expression/amplification, cellular division/differentiation, DNA replication, malignant transformation, and apoptotic cell death). The involvement of PARPs in this scenario has raised doubts about the epigenetic value of poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation, because it is generally activated after DNA damage. However, one emerging view suggests that both the product of this reaction, poly(ADP-ribose), and PARPs, particularly PARP 1, play a fundamental role in recruiting protein targets to specific sites and (or) in interacting physically with structural and regulatory factors, through highly reproducible and inheritable mechanisms, often independent of DNA breaks. The interplay of PARPs with protein factors, and the combinatorial effect of poly(ADPribosyl)ation with other post-translational modifications has shed new light on the potential and versatility of this dynamic reaction.Key words: chromatin, epigenetic, poly(ADP-ribose), PARP.

Poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation of heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoproteins (hnRNPs) regulates the posttranscriptional fate of RNA during development.DrosophilahnRNP A1, Hrp38, is required for germ line stem cell maintenance and oocyte localization. The mRNA targets regulated by Hrp38 are mostly unknown. We identified 428 Hrp38-associated gene transcripts in the fly ovary, including mRNA of the translational repressor Nanos. We found that Hrp38 binds to the 3′ untranslated region (UTR) of Nanos mRNA, which contains a translation control element. We have demonstrated that translation of the luciferase reporter bearing the Nanos 3′ UTR is enhanced by dsRNA-mediated Hrp38 knockdown as well as by mutating potential Hrp38-binding sites. Our data show that poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation inhibits Hrp38 binding to the Nanos 3′ UTR, increasing the translationin vivoandin vitro.hrp38andPargnull mutants showed an increased ectopic Nanos translation early in the embryo. We conclude that Hrp38 represses Nanos translation, whereas its poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation relieves the repression effect, allowing restricted Nanos expression in the posterior germ plasm during oogenesis and early embryogenesis.

This study discusses the USD Central Exchange Rate of USD To Rupiah at Bank Indonesia as a Dependency Factor (Y), with independent factors that can approve internal aggregates, namely In ation (X1), BI Rate (X2), and Net Exports (X3). The hypothesis used in this study is In ation (X1) that applies to the USD Middle Rate Against Rupiah at Bank Indonesia (Y), whether the BI Rate (X2) is related to the USD Middle Rate Against Rupiah at Bank Indonesia (Y), whether Net Exports (Y X3) against the USD Exchange Rate Against Rupiah at Bank Indonesia (Y), and whether In ation (X1), BI Rate (X2), and Net Exports (X3) simultaneously oppose the USD Exchange Rate Against Rupiah at Bank Indonesia (Y). The data used are secondary data released by the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency and processed using SPSS.22. The classic test is done using the Normality Test, Autocorrelation Test, and Multicollinearity Test. Hypothesis testing is done using a Simple Linear Test and Multiple Linear Test. This research resulted in a calculated value of X1 against Y of -1.318; the value of t-count X2 against Y is -1,963; and the t-value of X3 against Y is -3,803. The t-table value is negative in this study -2.16037. Multiple linear tests in this study produced a calculated F value of 4.670> 3.587 (F table). The regression equation in this study is Y = 12,226,241 - 166,022.X1 + 196,115.X2 - 0,101.X3 + e. The coe cient of R value is 0.748 and the value of R square is 0.56.

S100 calcium-binding protein B (S100B), a multifunctional macromolecule mainly expressed in nerve tissues and adipocytes, has been suggested to contribute to the pathogenesis of obesity. To clarify the role of S100B in insulin action and glucose metabolism in peripheral tissues, we investigated the effect of S100B on glycolysis in myoblast and myotube cells. Rat myoblast L6 cells were treated with recombinant mouse S100B to examine glucose consumption, lactate production, glycogen accumulation, glycolytic metabolites and enzyme activity, insulin signaling, and poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation of glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH). Glycolytic metabolites were investigated by enzyme assays or metabolome analysis, and insulin signaling was assessed by Western blot analysis. Enzyme activity and poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation of GAPDH was evaluated by an enzyme assay and immunoprecipitation followed by dot blot with an anti-poly(ADP-ribose) antibody, respectively. S100B significantly decreased glucose consumption, glucose analog uptake, and lactate production in L6 cells, in either the presence or absence of insulin. In contrast, S100B had no effect on glycogen accumulation and insulin signaling. Metabolome analysis revealed that S100B increased the concentration of glycolytic intermediates upstream of GAPDH. S100B impaired GAPDH activity and increased poly(ADP-ribosyl)ated GAPDH proteins. The effects of S100B on glucose metabolism were mostly canceled by a poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitor. Similar results were obtained in C2C12 myotube cells. We conclude that S100B as a humoral factor may impair glycolysis in muscle cells independent of insulin action, and the effect may be attributed to the inhibition of GAPDH activity from enhanced poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation of the enzyme.

Background/Objectives: This study aims to investigate whether materialism tendency will act as a moderating variable for the inaction inertia phenomenon.Methods/Statistical analysis: A total of 121 college students were randomly assigned to 2 (difference in attractiveness condition: large vs. small) × 2 (materialism: high vs. low) mixed design. Respondents read two-part scenario and responded to several questions: manipulation check item to assess perceived attractiveness, some questions related to regret (immediate regret, recalled experienced regret, anticipated inaction regret, anticipated action regret), behavioral intention, and demographics.Findings: First, the manipulation of the perception of difference in attractiveness (manipulated with price difference) was as the researcher intended. Immediate regret after missing the initial opportunity, recalled experienced regret, and anticipated action regret were found to be varied on the level of materialism. The level of recalled experienced regret, anticipated action regret, and anticipated inaction regret varied according to the difference in attractiveness conditions. The interaction effects of the level of materialism and difference in attractiveness conditions appeared only for anticipated action regret and anticipated inaction regret. Anticipated action regret and inaction regret were found to have a significant effect on behavioral intention regardless of the level of materialism. On the other hand, recalled experienced regret had a significant impact on behavioral intention only in low-materialist group.Improvements/Applications: This study has theoretical and practical implications from the point of view of how the various kinds of regrets vary according to materialism in the area of inaction inertia effect.

Besides the light-harvesting and protecting role, carotenoids are also instrumental as structural components for the assembly of light-harvesting complexes in purple bacteria and green plants, as well as for the formation of photosystem II complex. Carotenoids stabilize those pigm ent-protein complexes, but have no effect on the form ation of the reaction centers of purple bacteria and photosystem I of plants.

Intergroup behaviour is often regarded as selfish, unethical and immoral. In this thesis I argue against this proposition by stating that intergroup behaviour is guided by moral principles. I propose that negative anticipated group-based emotions serve the social function of promoting moral intergroup behaviour. I argue that aversive anticipated group-based emotions (such as shame) signal the harmful consequences of a future ingroup action and that the desire to avoid these aversive consequences motivates group members to inhibit immoral intergroup behaviour. The research in this thesis investigates the role of anticipated group-based guilt and shame in promoting moral and inhibiting immoral intergroup behaviour. In Chapter 2, I found that anticipated group-based shame and ingroup-directed anger (but not guilt) positively predicted collective action against a proposed ingroup transgression. The research in Chapter 3 assessed the role of anticipated group-based emotions and ingroup identification on discrimination. I found that people with low and high (but not moderate) levels of self-investment reduced discrimination when they anticipated aversive group-based emotions. In Chapter 4, I found that anticipated groupbased shame only moderated discrimination when the ingroup were of high-status and the social hierarchy was stable. In the majority of the studies in this thesis I found that group members are motivated to avoid ingroup transgressions when they anticipate experiencing groupbased shame for this action. I argue that this anticipated emotion signals that undertaking an action is likely to result in a social identity threat and that the desire to maintain a positive social identity motivates group members to avoid the transgression. I conclude by stating that this anticipated emotion serves the social function of promoting moral intergroup behaviour and protecting social identity.

Climate change impact and drought phenomena linked with anthropogenic pressure have become a growing concern for water resource managers and policy makers, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. This research proposes generic methodologies to evaluate the prospective impact of such changes at a basin-scale. The Lower Zab River Basin, northern Iraq, has been selected as a representative case study. These methodologies have been achieved through the following: (1) Highlight the impact of potential evapotranspiration (PET) methods, elevation, and climatic conditions on the reconnaissance drought index (RDI) results, applying three of the most widespread PET estimates, which are Thornthwaite, Hargreaves, and Blaney-Criddle in addition to the Food and Agriculture Organization Penman-Monteith reference technique, using data from 24 stations cover different elevations and climatic conditions for the period from 1979 to 2014. The initial form of RDI is directly influenced by the selected PET method at different elevations for all regions. (2) Combine the results of the flow duration curve and the digital filtering algorithms to overcome the limitations of the traditional baseflow separation methods, and then determine the baseflow annual variations. The water yielded from the basin storage system during the dry seasons resulted in dissimilarities in the observed baseflow index between the pre-damming and post-damming periods of the streamflow. (3) Quantify the hydrological alterations of various flow characteristics utilise the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration method, in addition to multi- regression, hydrologic sensitivity, and hydrologic model simulations. Climate change was the main factor reducing streamflow. (4) Compare the results of seven ensembles General Circulation Models (GCM) with the results of delta perturbation (DP) scenarios. Both scenarios predicted almost identical decreases in the mean monthly flows to the reservoir. The DP scenarios allow the sensitivity of the impact models to climate change to be more evidently determined compared to GCM scenarios so that they could be complemented GCM scenarios.

Retirement planning has been shown to affect transition into retirement, and satisfaction with it. The current study was designed to investigate the effect that financial planning choices have on an individuals anticipated level of retirement satisfaction, their adjustment to retirement and their overall satisfaction with retirement. Retirement was defined as an exit from an organisation or career path of considerable duration, taken with intention of reduced psychological commitment to work thereafter (Feldman, 1994) therefore some retirees in the current study were working in retirement. To incorporate this into the current research, the relationship between working in retirement and planning was explored; looking at whether the previously discussed effects of financial planning (on anticipated retirement satisfaction, adjustment to retirement and overall retirement satisfaction) are affected by work in retirement. The Retirement Satisfaction Index (RSI; (Floyd et al., 1992)) was used to measure anticipated retirement satisfaction, adjustment to retirement and overall retirement satisfaction. Financial planning choices and demographic details were recorded from questionnaires. Participants were 98 retired persons living in New Zealand. Factor analysis was used to explore the factor structure of the RSI (Floyd et al., 1992) on a New Zealand sample, the factor struture was similar to structure repeorted by Floyd et.al (1992) and Fouqueraeu, Fenandez and Mullet (1999). Some changes were noted in the ‘retirement satisafaction’ factor. The implication of these are discussed. Individual financial planning had a positive effect on overall retirement. There were no significant effects found for anticipated satisfaction and adjustment to retirement. Further working in retirement had no significant effects on individual planning or the previously discussed effects of individual planning on the retirement experience.

This research investigated the decision process surrounding the self-regulated learning of new uses of existing technology. With firms investing up to 50% of their capital budgets on information technology (in excess of 1 trillion dollars in aggregate), understanding what factors motivate or inhibit more encompassing use of technology is of practical concern (Bowen 1986; Nambisan et al. 1999; Mahmood et a. 2001). I introduced a dynamic element to the technology adoption/acceptance literature by using a framework based upon deferral option theory. This framework allows for the decision to learn a new use of technology to occur over time. I found that potential users chose to defer learning new uses of technology even when usefulness was evident and ease of learning was not prohibitive. Further, an additional benefit to using the deferral option framework was its inclusion of both rewards and penalties; I found that not only do potential users consider what can be gained by learning, but also what can be lost by trying to learn and failing. In addition to using a framework premised on deferral option theory, I investigated the properties of time pressure and subjective norms on the decision to learn new uses of technology. As time pressure offered a possible alternate explanation for why potential users defer learning, I controlled for it experimentally and determined that time pressure did affect deferral choice. Further, as subjective norms have had limited success as a predictor of intent to use technology in prior literature, I investigated the separate pieces of the theoretical construct, referent group perceptions and the motivation to comply with those perceptions. By manipulating environment between work and play settings, different motivational sources were enacted by the potential users. Specifically, I found that when potential users were externally motivated subjective norms did influence deferral, and when internally motivated, subjective norms did not influence a potential user??s decision to defer learning a new use of technology.

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ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to illustrate how the basic Real Business Cycle (RBC) model can be modified to incorporate money in an attempt to construct monetary business cycle models of the U.S. economy. This is done for one case where money enters the model as direct lump-sum transfers to households and for the other case where money injections enter the economy through the financial system. Interestingly, the two channels generate very different responses to a money growth shock. In the first case, a positive money growth shock increases nominal interest rates and depresses economic activity, which is called the anticipated inflation effect. However, the popular consensus among economists is that nominal interest rates fall after a positive monetary shock. This motivates the construction of our second model where it is conjectured that the banking sector plays an important role in the monetary transmission mechanism and money is injected into the model through financial intermediaries. It is observed in this model that a positive monetary shock reduces interest rates and stimulates economic activity, which is called the liquidity effect. Furthermore, the statistics generated by the models show that monetary shocks have no effect on real variables when money enters as direct lump-sum transfers to households. On the contrary, such shocks have significant real impact when money enters through the financial system. Taken together, this implies that how money enters into the model significantly matters for the impact of monetary shocks and such shocks entering through financial intermediaries may be important in determining the cyclical fluctuations of the U.S. economy.
Thesis (B.Ec.(Hons)) -- University of Adelaide, School of Economics, 2017

碩士
國立臺灣科技大學
企業管理系
94
Because of popularity of the internet, and the fast, efficient of online auction platform, make domestic consumption of online auction activity becomes hot in recent years. According to the survey of e-commerce market of Institute for Information Industry of Taiwan (2005 ), 68% of the internet users have experience of online shopping, and the proportion of internet users who participate in online auction is up to 39%. In addition, the online market scale in Taiwan is up to 59,800 million in 2005, grew up 54% in comparison with 2004. And the market scale of online auction predicted to be 31,700 million, grew up 65% than last year. Therefore, the domestic online shopping environment is moving towards popular. After the prime investigation and observing the process of online auction, the product and bidding information offered by website are obviously insufficient. For example, in product information, the auction website only offers the basic goods specification, if consumers need more goods information, must take a lot of effort to obtain more other’s usage experiences and comment information (word-of-mouth message ) through other channel. So, under the incomplete situation of this kind of information, consumers may feel inconvenient to make bidding decision. In addition, consumption pattern in online auction and traditional business transaction are quite different, full of uncertainty during the process of auctioning, for example, sellers’ reputation, quality of the products, the complication of auction procedure, low commitment (Ariely and Simonson 2003 ) or long auctions time, etc., may cause bidders to stop bidding, moreover, the psychology factors, for instance psychological endowment(Strahilevitz and Loewenstein 2001)and anticipated regret of losing, will influence the bidding behavior, too. And Ariely and Simonson (2003 ) proposed, loser’s curse plays a more significant role in online auction. Turnbull, Leek and Ying (2000 ) supposed, word of mouth can effectively reduce the uncertainty of buying new product or the service. So how to increase consumers’ bidding intention and bids will be interesting topic. The purpose of this research is to explore the factors influence the bidding behavior. This research includes two studies to examine the effect of word of mouth, psychological endowment and anticipated regret to bidding behavior. The results of this research are as follows: 1. The word of mouth of products offered by online auction website can increase consumers' bidding price. 2. When bidders with the psychological endowment of bidding target, they will generate more aggressive bids. 3. When cause bidders to anticipate the regret of lose, they will generate more aggressive bids. 4. Anticipated regret of losing will moderate the effect of psychological endowment to bidding behavior. In addition, this research will discuss the implications and contributions of the research respect to the research results. Furthermore this research indicates the limitation of this research and directions of future research.

碩士
國立成功大學
國際企業研究所碩博士班
93
According to the statistic from Ministry of Transportation and Communication, one out of five persons owns a car in Taiwan and the owning proportion is growing about 20% per year. Because of the limited of parking space, it is difficult for Taiwanese’s family to own two or more cars at one time. Therefore, we infer that the annual growth rate probably stands for the repurchase behavior. In order to keep the consumers and maintain the consumer relationship, automobile firms invest a lot to develop loyalty programs. They believe that consumer will re-buy the same brand next time if firms provide variety of loyalty programs. 　Previously, the researches indicated that once people accepted loyalty programs which provided by the automobile brand they were using, they will be satisfied toward the brand. But, we also found that satisfaction doesn’t represent for loyalty intention anymore. Because, during the decision process, consumers will perceive a lot of information from other brands, the competitive brand. Because of limited of information and actual using experiences, people might feel regret if they forgive competitive brands finally. Thus, a successful loyalty program has two main objectives. First, firms should try to increase the satisfaction toward the original brand through perceived value which created by loyalty programs. Secondly, loyalty programs should inhibit the attractiveness of competitors and decrease the degree of anticipated regret. 　For companies, they would like to know which type of loyalty program will consist of more proportion of loyalty. Finally, does perceived value made up by loyalty program could directly build up loyalty intention or it just affects loyalty in indirect way. 　The target of this research is domestic automobile companies. We sampled the subjects randomly in different show rooms and analyzing the data through factor analysis, regression and SEM. The conclusions of this research are as followed. (1)Direct type of loyalty programs could form greater effectiveness to perceived value than indirect type loyalty program. (2)Consumers feel satisfied when they perceived high value toward the loyalty programs. (3)Perceived value created by loyalty programs might decrease the anticipated regret. (4) Post-purchased satisfaction is the most important role to affect loyalty intention. 　For the firms, we have several suggestions. (1)Firms should ensure the quality of direct type of loyalty to accumulate the perceived value. (2)Consumers will evaluate the product they have already chosen by the performance of product design and contact experience. (3) For competitive brands, they could try hard to enhance the quality of product design to attractive people.

Personal causation relies on translating goals into goal-directed behavior. This chapter addresses how humans generate a goal-directed behavior, that is, how they initiate and control intentional, goal-directed actions. In particular, it discusses how anticipated action effects are integrated with motor patterns, so to guide future effect-driven actions, and how action intentions struggle with overlearned habits. It argues that intentional and conscious processes typically precede, rather than accompany, intentional actions, and that the experience of personal agency and the identification of action errors are based on a comparison between expected and actual action effects. A final outlook addresses the implications of increasing insight into cognitive embodiment and of increasing interdisciplinarity for the study of human action control and personal causation.

Consumption decisions are crucial determinants of business cycles and growth. Knowledge of how consumers respond to the economic environment and how they react to the risks that they encounter during the life cycle is therefore crucial for evaluating stabilization policies and the effectiveness of fiscal packages implemented in response to economic downturns or financial crises. Do anticipated income changes have a different impact on consumption than unanticipated shocks? Do all consumers respond in the same way, or does the response vary by the economic circumstances and consumers’ characteristics? Do the rich increase consumption less than the poor when their income changes? In the past decades, economist have proposed many analytical perspectives, and studied these questions with a variety of data and approaches. This book attempts to guide readers through the most important theoretical papers in the field, and to evaluate theoretical models using facts or available empirical estimates. It is divided into three parts. The first seven chapters provide the basic ingredients of models with intertemporal choice, guiding the reader from a model without uncertainty to intertemporal models with precautionary saving and borrowing constraints. The central part of the book reviews recent empirical literature on the effect of income changes on consumption and on the relevance of precautionary saving. The last four chapters contain a selection of various extensions of the intertemporal model studied in the first part of the book.

Almost every country throughout the globe has been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. The virus's propagation has a disastrous effect on both human health and the economy as a whole. The COVID-19 global recession is the worst since World War II ended. According to the IMF's April 2021 World Economic Outlook Report, the global economy declined by 3.5 percent in 2020, 7 percent drop from the 3.4 percent growth predicted in October 2019. While almost every IMF-covered nation saw negative growth in 2020, the decline was more extreme in the world's poorest regions. The global supply system and international trade of all countries, including India, were affected by the nationwide lockdown in India and around the world to stop the pandemic from spreading. Since the beginning of 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on the global business climate. The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant public health and economic problems in South Asian countries and the worst impacted being India, Bangladesh and Pakistan in recent years. The nationwide lockdown adopted by the countries was effective in slowing down the spread of the coronavirus in South Asia, but it came at a substantial financial and social cost to society. Manufacturing activities in Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines have shrunk sharply. Tourism, trade and remittances, and all major sources of foreign money for South Asian countries, have been substantially impacted. The COVID-19 spread has had a significant influence on global financial markets. The international financial and energy markets substantially dropped as the number of cases began to rise globally, primarily in the United States, Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Iran, and South Korea along with South Asian countries. Reduced travel has had a substantial impact on service businesses such as tourism, hospitality, and transportation. According to IMF, (space required after,) 2020 South Asian economies are likely to shrink for the first time in 4 decades. The pandemic has pushed millions into poverty and widened income and wealth disparities because of premature deaths, workplace absenteeism and productivity losses. A negative supply shock has occurred with manufacturing and productive activity decreasing due to global supply chain disruptions and factory closures. This resulted in a severe short-term challenge for policymakers, especially when food and commodity prices rise, exacerbating economic insecurity. Failure to achieve equitable recovery might result in social and political unrest, as well as harsh responses from governments that have been less tolerant of dissident voices in recent years. Almost every area of the Indian economy is being ravaged by the pandemic. But the scope and degree of the damage vary from sector to sector within each area. One of the worst-affected areas in India is the Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) sector. Apart from MSMEs, Agriculture and Agro-based industries, Banking companies and NBFCs and Social Sectors are also in jeopardy. The pandemic creates turmoil in the Capital Market and Mutual Funds industry. India's auto manufacturing and its ancillary sectors were badly hit during the initial stages of the pandemic when lockdown measures were adopted and the situation continued to remain subdued for many quarters. It is still uncertain whether this recession will have long-term structural ramifications for the global economy or will have only short-term financial and economic consequences. Additionally, the speed and the strength of the healing may be crucially dependent on the capability of the governments to accumulate and roll out the COVID-19 vaccines. In the context of the pandemic and its devastating impact on the Indian economy, an edited volume is proposed which intends to identify and analyse the footfalls of the pandemic on various sectors and industries in India. The proposed edited volume endeavours to understand the status, impact, problems, policies and prospects of the agricultural and agro-based industries, Banking and NBFCs, MSMEs, Social Sector, Capital Market and Mutual Funds during the pandemic and beyond. The proposed volume will contain research papers/articles covering the overall impact of the pandemic on various sectors, measures to be adopted to combat the situation and suggestions for overcoming the hurdles. For this, research papers and articles will be called from academicians, research scholars and industrialists having common research interests to share their insights relating to this area. It is anticipated that the volume will include twenty to twenty-five chapters. An editorial committee will be constituted with three chief editors and another external editor to review the articles following a double-blind review process to assure the quality of the papers according to the global standards and publisher's guidelines. The expected time to complete the entire review process is one month, and the publication process will start thereafter. The proposed volume is believed to be having significant socio-economic implications and is intended to cater to a large audience which includes academicians, researchers, students, corporates, policymakers, investors and general readers at large.

AbstractMIS technique compared to the open technique is associated with substantial benefits for the patients, attributable to less surgical trauma; however, this does not imply the absence of physiologic changes when not anticipated may be deleterious. These physiologic alterations are triggered by a combination of the following: the insufflation gas used, the increase in intra-abdominal pressure (IAP), the extreme patient positioning during surgery, and the effect of the surgery itself [1].

AbstractThe term ‘cognitive structures’ is used to describe the fact that mental models underlie thinking, reasoning and representing. Cognitive structures generally improve the efficiency of information processing by providing a situational framework within which there are parameters governing the nature and timing of information and appropriate responses can be anticipated. Unanticipated events that violate the parameters of the cognitive structure require the cognitive model to be updated, but this comes at an efficiency cost. In reversal learning a response that had been reinforced is no longer reinforced, while an alternative is now reinforced, having previously not been (A+/B− becomes A−/B+). Unanticipated changes of contingencies require that cognitive structures are updated. In this study, we examined the effect of lesions of the orbital frontal cortex (OFC) and the effects of the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), escitalopram, on discrimination and reversal learning. Escitalopram was without effect in intact rats. Rats with OFC lesions had selective impairment of reversal learning, which was ameliorated by escitalopram. We conclude that reversal learning in OFC-lesioned rats is an easily administered and sensitive test that can detect effects of serotonergic modulation on cognitive structures that are involved in behavioural flexibility.

AbstractPast research on children’s concepts of God has suggested a developmental tendency moving from anthropomorphic to non-anthropomorphic representations. Besides replication, we tested a model of de-anthropomorphization. Methods. We collected drawings of God (N = 532) from 5- to 17-year-old children in French-speaking Switzerland and constructed a model of anthropomorphism and de-anthropomorphization. Age, gender, and religiosity (i.e., schooling) were utilized as predictor variables in logistic regression analyses. Results. Consistent with past research, both age and religious schooling facilitated the occurrence of non-anthropomorphic God representations. Analyses on de-anthropomorphization revealed that age had a positive effect on most strategies (with one exception), and that schooling did not play a significant role in that regard, neither did gender. Discussion. The current findings move beyond binary oppositions concerning anthropomorphic God figures, which appear to be conceptually much more complex than previously anticipated. Theoretical as well as practical implications are discussed.

AbstractThe global Anticipated Energy Transition Period (AETP) is one that all stakeholders must embrace with respect to curbing energy poverty, thereby addressing issues related to climate change especially in the sub-Saharan region of Africa. The region is endowed with abundant richer, cleaner, and affordable energy sources, majority of which has remained untapped due to many reasons, one of which is tied to the socio-cultural traditional beliefs and value systems of the citizens. This has forced majority of the inhabitants to continue to rely on the use of non-biodegradable materials for the purpose of cooking and many other activities. This value system, therefore, contributes to have had an adverse effect on the climate and also on the health of the citizens most of whom are women and children residing in rural areas. The outlook on the AETP, their effect on climate change, the use of Clean Energy Technology (CET) domestically, the various strata expected to come with the AETP, the socio-cultural dynamics in terms of acceptability by all (rural, peri-urban, and urban areas) is addressed in this chapter. The chapter concluded by designing a CET model that could assist in planning for the AETP and mitigating climate change.

AbstractSince 1990, a series of cost-sharing policies in England have changed how higher education and undergraduates are funded. A funding system predicated on student loan debt emerged, informed by neo-liberal thinking and ideas underpinning the marketization of higher education. Annual tuition fees of £9000 were introduced in 2012 for all full-time undergraduates, repaid by loans with repayments linked to graduates’ ability to pay. Sustaining these reforms and evidenced in the policy rhetoric, are a range of unsubstantiated assumptions about their impact, the benefits of student loans, and their effect on student behaviour. Loans sought to protect students from tuition fee increases, to make higher education more affordable, to encourage and widen higher education participation, and to promote student choice. But these aims have been realised only partially, and the 2012 reforms can undermine these aims. Student loans have not been embraced equally by all students, as anticipated. The financial and psychic costs of borrowing can limit students’ higher education and post-graduation choices, opportunities, and experiences. But such occurrences are not random—they are socially stratified. Those students who are already disadvantaged are the most negatively affected. The student funding reforms in England, therefore, have helped to perpetuate rather than just ameliorate existing inequalities.

AbstractThe life insurance sector not only pertains to a variety of distributors, such as for example, ‘bancassurance’ entities combining investments services, investment and insurance products, but also to the large portion of unit-linked/investment based life insurance products. Major legal changes introduced by Directive (EU) 2016/97 (“IDD”) will therefore need to be carefully considered and anticipated by the life insurance industry, including specific professional and organizational requirements, specific information standards for insurance-based investment products, which will include the provision of appropriate information and requirements for advice to be suitable, restrictions on remuneration, and special requirements relating to the advice to be provided to the customer by any distributor related to costs and charges or to the distribution of the product—including the cost of advice. The international character of the Life Insurance has an important impact on the work to the implementation of IDD which aims at a so-called minimum harmonization. No doubt that the implementation may appear wide and burdensome, but it is a unique opportunity for all entities involved to achieve a good balance of liabilities between the professionals involved, review risk management options and look for sustainable business alternatives. This chapter examines the impact of IDD on life insurance and addresses the harmonization impact and effect of the IDD in the insurance industry.

It is possible to define the concept of risk in various ways. Risk is the deviation possibility of the realized value from the expected value. It has two components, nonsystematic risk and systematic risk. Despite this, pandemics are risk factors that cannot be anticipated. They have deeply affected economies and financial markets under every condition. The importance of the detection of the COVID-19 pandemic comes from the selection of monetary and fiscal policies to be applied by governments during the rehabilitation process of economies. Equity share markets provide important information regarding the future of a company or economy. The reason for this is that the current value of an equity share is dependent on the deducted calculation of the cash flows of the equity share to be provided in the future. The actual price of the equity share is determined according to supply and demand under market conditions.

Today, there is an intense competition regarding the provision of private health services. In the context of such competition, it is important to provide that health personnel commit to their jobs and have job satisfaction in order for hospitals to thrive. However, perceptions and cognitions related to leaving employment are affected due to the specific features of health services and due to the heavy workload of personnel. The current study was conducted in order to determine the effect of organizational commitment and job satisfaction on employee turnover rates among health personnel. A total of 415 nurses who were employed in 5 private hospitals located in Istanbul completed questionnaires. In the study, expected employee turnover, organizational commitment, and job satisfaction scales were administered. Data was analyzed using the SPSS 17.0 software. It was found that expected employee turnover levels showed significant differences according to the demographic features of the nurses. In addition, employee turnover rates were negatively related to organizational commitment and job satisfaction. According to this, employee turnover levels decrease as organizational commitment and job satisfaction increase. Based on these results, it is recommended that hospital administrations should place importance on programs that aim to increase organizational commitment and job satisfaction among nurses in order to reduce employee turnover rates.

The article discusses the results of the ERI tests for the effects of heavy charged particles. The data that arose during the irradiation of single radiation effects are presented. During the irradi-ation of the samples, the measurement of the integral flux (fluence) of ions was carried out using track detectors. To conduct the tests, technological equipment was used that implements the operating modes of the tested analog-to-digital converter and provides measurement of the parameters-the validity criteria. When irradiating samples with ions, the occurrence of a thyristor effect, cata-strophic failure and functional interruption effects were not recorded.

AC electrothermal effect generates temperature gradients in the fluids, consequently inducing free charges that move in electric fields, and produce microflows in microchannel. This paper reports dramatic improvements in flow rate over conventional ac electrokinetic micropumps by exploiting asymmetry in electric potentials over the electrodes. A micropump consisting of planar asymmetric electrode array was tested using AC signals with and without a DC bias. The pumping velocity is much faster with a DC voltage, in some cases by an order of magnitude, reaching 3.2 mm/sec linear velocities with only 9 Vrms. Our hypothesis attributes the increase of ACET force to the ion generation near electrode by reactions and the resulting high conductivity gradient. The discovery presents an exciting opportunity for microfluidics, and further improvement can be anticipated with some optimization.

Abstract The critical impact of corner voids on the anticipated reliability of CSP subjected to mechanical stresses is demonstrated in this paper. Experimental and numerical simulation results indicate that the presence of a corner underfill void subjects the solder joint to stress values approaching that of a non-underfilled CSP. In the absence of underfill voids, the reliability in drop testing improved when the CSP was underfilled, and the improvement was inversely proportional to the modulus of the underfill in the range studied. Results indicate that underfill quality could potentially play a critical role in determining reliability in the field for products subjected to mechanical loading.

Macro Fiber Composite (MFC) actuators, which are commonly integrated in modern smart structures, may be subjected to high levels of mechanical loads. Opposed to the electrical actuation, these loads are not always controlled or anticipated by the user. Thus, they may yield a response that is beyond the linear range due to a stress induced ferro-elastic domain switching. In this paper, the phenomenon of domain switching and mechanical depolarization in the MFC actuator and the resulting degradation of the actuation capabilities are investigated. As an illustrative numerical example, the response of MFC layers in an active beam element is analyzed. Emphasis is placed on the location of the fiber segment along the active beam with a distinction between the compressed and the tensed layers. The results highlight the range of effects associated with the potential nonlinear response of the active structure under high levels of mechanical load.

Abstract The thermal performance of a candidate next-generation falling particle receiver (FPR) is analyzed subject to various expected operating conditions. This receiver design was created from the result of an extensive optimization study and developed to support the Generation 3 Particle Pilot Plant (G3P3) project. Previous analysis demonstrated high thermal efficiencies for the receiver at nominal quiescent conditions, but further analysis was required to demonstrate that the receiver could maintain that thermal performance in a wide range of anticipated environments. In this study, the thermal efficiency was numerically evaluated using a CFD model for different wind conditions and shown to maintain a thermal efficiency above 83% for considered wind conditions. Moreover, the effect of radiative spillage from the incoming concentrated solar beam on the receiver exterior was investigated using ray tracing and CFD models. The exterior wall material temperature limits were not exceeded for the anticipated design power from the heliostats. Additional features were numerically explored including the addition of a chimney to capture particle fines and waste heat and a multi-stage concept to maximize curtain opacity. Particle fines of 10 μm were shown to preferentially flow into this chimney rather than out of the aperture, and the multi-stage design decreased radiative losses and minimized wall temperatures behind the particle curtain.

Applications requiring the containment and transport of hydrogen gas at pressures greater than 70 MPa are anticipated in the evolving hydrogen economy infrastructure. Since hydrogen is known to alter the mechanical properties of materials, data are needed to guide the selection of materials for structural components. The objective of this study is to characterize hydrogen-assisted fracture in two austenitic steels, 21Cr-6Ni-9Mn (21-6-9) and 22Cr-13Ni-5Mn (22-13-5), as well as explore the role of yield strength and small concentrations of ferrite on hydrogen-assisted fracture. The testing methodology involves exposure of uniaxial tensile specimens to high-pressure hydrogen gas in order to precharge the specimens with hydrogen, then subsequently testing the specimens to measure strength and ductility. In all cases, the alloys remained ductile despite precharging to hydrogen concentrations >1 at%, this is substantiated by reduction in area of >50% and fracture surfaces dominated by microvoid coalescence. Low concentrations of ferrite and moderate changes in yield strength did not affect the hydrogen-assisted fracture of 21-6-9 and 22-13-5 respectively.

While the macroscopic mechanical properties of pure ice has been investigated by laboratory tests and its behavior has been characterized by existing fracture mechanics models, the effect of environmental conditions — such as the concentration of embedded carbon dioxide (CO2) — is not fully understood. It is known that the chemical environment can have significant effects on the mechanical properties of ice. Using full atomistic molecular dynamics (MD), we probe the tensile strength of a single ice crystal. We systematically introduce a random concentration of CO2 molecules by replacing H2O molecules on the ice crystal lattice (e.g., substitutional defects). As anticipated, we observe a drop in strength with an increase in CO2 concentration. The decreased ice strength is not merely caused by material defects induced by the CO2 inclusions, but rather by the fact that the strength of hydrogen bonds — the chemical bonds between water molecules in an ice crystal — is actively disrupted under increasing concentrations of CO2. The inclusions provide both stress concentrations and nucleation points for crack/void formation. We then assume a Poisson distribution to reflect various concentrations of CO2 and apply nanoscale Weibull statistics (NWS) as a brittle material failure model. The results can be used to help predict the strength range of bulk ice.

Materials such as added clays, weight materials, drill solids and metalic wear products in the drilling fluid are known to distort the geomagnetic field at the location of the Measurement While Drilling (MWD) tool magnetometers that are used to measure the direction of well path. This distortion contributes to substantial errors in determination of azimuth while drilling deviated wells. These errors may result in missing the target of a long deviated 12 ¼″ section in the range of 1–200m; representing a significant cost to be mitigated. The error becomes even more pronounced if drilling occurs in arctic regions close to the magnetic North Pole (or South Pole). The effect on the magnetometer readings is obviously linked to the kinds and amounts of magnetic materials in the drilling fluid. The problem has recently been studied by laboratory experiments and analyses of downhole survey data. A series of experiments has been carried out to understand how some drilling fluid additives relate to the magnetic distortion. Experiments with free iron ions show that presence of iron ions does not contribute to magnetic distortion; while experiments with bentonite-based fluids show a strong effect of bentonite on magnetic shielding. Albeit earlier measurements showing a strong dependency of the content of organophilic clay, clean laboratory prepared oil-based drilling fluids show no increased shielding when adding organophilic hectorite clays. The anticipated difference between these two cases is outlined in the paper. When eroded steel from an offshore drilling site is added into the oil-based drilling fluid, it is found that these swarf and steel fines significantly increase the magnetic shielding of the drilling fluid. The paper outlines how the drilling direction may be distorted by the presence of these additives and contaminants and how this relates to the rheological properties of the drilling fluid.

We study the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the pension policy response on the private and public pension systems of Peru. We find that the policies allowing early withdrawals from the private pension balances imply a significant reduction in expected pension wealth by about 40 people, yet there are important heterogeneous effects: the losses are larger for males, for affiliates at the bottom of the distribution of income or pension wealth, and for older people as they have less time to rebuild their pension pots. We detect that the excess of mortality due to the pandemic will reduce the actuarial net liability of the public pension system by about 2.4 percent, even after accounting for new survival pensions and a drop in contributions. The effect is largely driven by savings due to the anticipated deaths of pensioners. Moreover, a new set of reduced pension benefits implemented in the public pension system during the pandemic could cost about 4 percent of the actuarial net reserve.

The Covid-19 crisis led multilateral and bilateral donors to revise their funding strategies to respond to the crisis and to adapt existing programming to the new context it created. This resulted in changes to overall allocations, with some countries increasing aid commitments and institutions like the World Bank scaling up lending to low- and middle-income countries while others have cut aid budgets due to low economic growth and demands on domestic resources at home. Changes in aid volumes and disbursal mechanisms are anticipated to have significant impacts on low- and middle-income countries’ abilities to cope with the crisis in the short term, and the targeting of these investments are likely to have a lingering effect on recoveries for years to come. Although aid makes up a small proportion of countries’ available finance to tackle the Covid-19 crisis, “other financing options such as foreign direct investment, workers’ remittances, and taxes – have fallen and are slow to recover” (Prizzon, 2021). Aid finance will therefore be critical to many countries’ short-term responses to Covid-19 and capacities to abate longer-term negative impacts on social and economic outcomes as countries begin to recover. This report gives a broad overview of trends in bilateral, multilateral, and private foundations’ funding strategies over the course of the pandemic to highlight observable shifts in practice. The review is based on a rapid search of funding announcements from a selection of bilateral donors, a selection of multilateral institutions, and overall trends reported by foundations. The report also includes evidence reported by secondary literature on finance for development over the course of the Covid-19 crisis.

Infectious disease is one of the most serious causes of economic loss in all sectors of aquaculture. There is a critical need to understand the molecular basis for protection against infectious disease so that safer, more reliable and more cost-effective strategies can be designed for their control. As part of this effort, the major goal of our BARD project was to determine the importance of endobiotics as a defense against protozoan ectoparasites in fish. Endobiotics, or antimicrobial polypeptides, are peptides and small proteins that are increasingly recognized as having a vital role in the innate defense of virtually all animals. One objective of our BARD project was to determine the antiparasitic potency of one specific group of endobiotics that were isolated from hybrid striped bass (Morone saxatilis x M chrysops). We found that these endobiotics, which we had previously named histone-like proteins (HLPs), exhibited potent activity against Amyloodinium and that the putative levels of HLPs in the skin were well within the levels that we found to be lethal to the parasite in vitro. We also found evidence for the presence of similar antibiotics in sea bream (Sparus aurata) and Mediterranean sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax). We also examined the effect of chronic stress on the expression of HLP in fish and found that HLP levels were dramatically decreased after only one week of a crowding/high ammonia sublethal stress. We also began to explore the feasibility of upregulating endobiotics via immunostimulation. However, we did not pursue this objective as fully as we originally intended because we spent a much larger effort than originally anticipated on the last objective, the attempted isolation of novel endobiotics from hybrid striped bass. In this regard, we purified and identified four new peptide endobiotics. These endobiotics, which we have named piscidins (from "Pisces" meaning fish), have potent, broad-spectrum activity against a number of both fish and human pathogens. This includes not only parasites but also bacteria. We also demonstrated that these peptides are present in the mast cell. This was the first time that the mast cell, the most common tissue granulocyte in vertebrates, was shown to possess any type of endobiotic. This finding has important implications in explaining the possible function of mast cells in the immune response of vertebrates. In summary, the research we have accomplished in this BARD project has demonstrated that endobiotics in fish have potent activity against many serious pathogens in aquaculture and that there is considerable potential to use these compounds as stress indicators in aquaculture. There is also considerable potential to use some of these compounds in other areas of medicine, including treatment of serious infectious diseases of humans and animals.

The general goal was to identify, map, and tag, with DNA markers, segments of chromosomes of a wild species (wild emmer wheat, the progenitor of cultivated wheat) determining the number, chromosomal locations, interactions, and effects of genes that control quantitative traits when transferred to a cultivated plant (bread wheat). Slight modifications were introduced and not all objectives could be completed within the human and financial resources available, as noted with the specific objectives listed below: 1. To identify the genetic contribution of each of the available wild emmer chromosome-arm substitution lines (CASLs) in the bread wheat cultivar Bethlehem for quantitative traits, including grain yield and its components and grain protein concentration and yield, and the effect of major loci affecting the quality of end-use products. [The quality of end-use products was not analyzed.] 2. To determine the extent and nature of genetic interactions (epistatic effects) between and within homoeologous groups 1 and 7 for the chromosome arms carrying "wild" and "cultivated" alleles as expressed in grain and protein yields and other quantitative traits. [Two experiments were successful, grain protein concentration could not be measured; data are partially analyzed.] 3. To derive recombinant substitution lines (RSLs) for the chromosome arms of homoeologous groups 1 and 7 that were found previously to promote grain and protein yields of cultivated wheat. [The selection of groups 1 and 7 tons based on grain yield in pot experiments. After project began, it was decided also to derive RSLs for the available arms of homoeologous group 4 (4AS and 4BL), based on the apparent importance of chromosome group 4, based on early field trials of the CASLs.] 4. To characterize the RSLs for quantitative traits as in objective 1 and map and tag chromosome segments producing significant effects (quantitative trait loci, QTLs by RFLP markers. [Producing a large population of RSLs for each chromosome arm and mapping them proved more difficult than anticipated, low numbers of RSLs were obtained for two of the chromosome arms.] 5. To construct recombination genetic maps of chromosomes of homoeologous groups 1 and 7 and to compare them to existing maps of wheat and other cereals [Genetic maps are not complete for homoeologous groups 4 and 7.] The rationale for this project is that wild species have characteristics that would be valuable if transferred to a crop plant. We demonstrated the sequence of chromosome manipulations and genetic tests needed to confirm this potential value and enhance transfer. This research has shown that a wild tetraploid species harbors genetic variability for quantitative traits that is interactive and not simply additive when introduced into a common genetic background. Chromosomal segments from several chromosome arms improve yield and protein in wheat but their effect is presumably enhanced when combination of genes from several segments are integrated into a single genotype in order to achieve the benefits of genes from the wild species. The interaction between these genes and those in the recipient species must be accounted for. The results of this study provide a scientific basis for some of the disappointing results that have historically obtained when using wild species as donors for crop improvement and provide a strategy for further successes.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.

Macroeconomic summary Economic activity has recovered faster than projected, and output is now expected to return to pre-pandemic levels earlier than anticipated. Economic growth projections for 2021 and 2022 have been revised upward, though significant downward bias remains. (Graph 1.1). Colombia’s economy returned to recovery in the third quarter after significant supply shocks and a third wave of COVID-19 in the second. Negative shocks affecting mobility and output were absent in the third quarter, and some indicators of economic activity suggest that the rate of recovery in demand, primarily in consumption, outpaced estimates from the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) in the context of widely expansive monetary policy. Several factors are expected to continue to contribute to output recovery for the rest of the year and into 2022, including the persistence of favorable international financial conditions, an expected improvement in external demand, and an increase in terms of trade. Increasing vaccination rates, the expectation of higher levels of employment and the consequent effect on household income, improved investment performance (which has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels), and the expected stimulus from monetary policy that would continue to be expansive should also drive economic activity. As a result, output is estimated to have returned to its pre-pandemic level in the third quarter (previously expected in the fourth quarter). Growth is expected to decelerate in 2022, with excess productive capacity projected to close faster than anticipated in the previous report. Given the above, GDP growth projections have been revised upward for 2021 (9.8%, range between 8.4% and 11.2%) and 2022 (4.7%, range between 0.7% and 6.5%). If these estimates are confirmed, output would have grown by 2.3% on average between 2020 and 2022. This figure would be below long-term sustainable growth levels projected prior to the pandemic. The revised growth forecast for 2022 continues to account for a low basis of comparison from this year (reflecting the negative effects of COVID-19 and roadblocks in some parts of the country), and now supposes that estimated consumption levels for the end of 2021 will remain relatively stable in 2022. Investment and net exports are expected to recover at a faster pace than estimated in the previous report. Nevertheless, the downward risks to these estimates remain unusually significant, for several reasons. First, they do not suppose significant negative effects on the economy from possible new waves of COVID-19. Second, because private consumption, which has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could perform less favorably than estimated in this forecast should it reflect a temporary phenomenon related to suppressed demand as service sectors re-open (e.g. tourism) and private savings accumulated during the pandemic are spent. Third, disruptions to supply chains could be more persistent than contemplated in this report and could continue to affect production costs, with a negative impact on the economy. Finally, the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances could translate to increased vulnerability to changes in international financial conditions or in international and domestic economic agents’ perception of risk in the Colombian economy, representing a downward risk to growth. A higher-than-expected increase in inflation, the persistence of supply shocks, and reduced excess productive capacity have led to an increase in inflation projections above the target on the forecast horizon (Graph 1.2). Inflation increased above expectations to 4.51% in the third quarter, due in large part to the price behavior of foods and regulated items, and to a lesser extent to core inflation. Increased international prices and costs continue to generate upward pressure on various sub-baskets of the consumer price index (CPI), as has the partial reversion of some price relief measures implemented in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias