Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Annual maxima'

As environmental change is happening at an unprecedented pace, a comprehensive and holistic approach is needed in order to mitigate the increasing negative effect of extreme natural events occurring based on the natural and anthropogenic variations. Of all the geophysical phenomena, flooding is one of the most catastrophic events, leading to quite a few losses and damages across the World. Recent extraordinary flood events happened in north – western England, precisely sequences of the severe floods in the county of Cumbria, Lancashire and Manchester in 2004, 2009 and 2015, have brought many concerns not only for the residents but also for the community of hydrologists in UK. These extreme events in these areas comparing with their typical river discharge values have raised an important question of whether any significant changes in the magnitude of river flows can be detected as a result of natural/human - induced clime change. If so, whether they can be attributed to any meteorological predictors such as rainfall frequency analysis. The results, performed for 39 river gauging stations based on annual maxima (AM) approach, indicate that around 92% of the river gauging stations show non – stationary behaviour; whereas only in 8%, stationarity is dominant. More importantly, annual rainfall is deemed as the best explanatory variable to express the variability of our data much better than other covariates for a vast majority of stations (around 60%).

There are different ways to understand warfare. Some see it as an artform, some as a science. For hundreds of years writers and theorists have tried to explain war in terms of principles such as initiative, surprise, and simplicity. These principles are sometimes distilled into maxims that try to define the most meaningful, crucial rules of war. This essay examines naval writer Wayne P. Huhges’s maxim “attack effectively first”. The somewhat self-evident concept of attacking effectively first leading to naval victory is tested and discussed. Hughes has developed three factors that he sees as essential in achieving the maxim, firepower, scouting and command and control (C2). The factors are analyzed and applied to the Yom Kippur war to investigate their meaning and value. The results of the analysis show that the factors are necessary to attack effectively first. However more research is required to evaluate how other factors can contribute and if the maxim is relevant in other maritime warfare cases.

The future operation of public low voltage networks has to consider increased decentralised generation using photovoltaic systems for residential application. For utilities it is necessary to determine the maximum permissible installed power of residential photovoltaic systems in sections of the low-voltage network. For this purpose a method based on modelling low-voltage network structures, occurring loads and insolation situations is presented and demonstrated. The maximum permissible installed power of residential photovoltaic systems is fundamentally determined by the structure of the settlement of the affected low-voltage network section. By modifying the generator model the method can be applied too for other types of decentralized generators in the low-voltage network such as fuel cell systems
Für den Betrieb des öffentlichen Niederspannungsnetzes in Wohnsiedlungsgebieten ist zukünftig mit einem verstärkten Einsatz dezentraler photovoltaischer Energiewandlungsanlagen zu rechnen. Für Netzbetreiber ist es erforderlich, die maximal zulässige Netzanschlussleistung derartiger Anlagen für Niederspannungs-Netzbezirke zu bestimmen. Dazu wird ein Verfahren auf der Grundlage der Modellierung der Struktur von Netzbezirken, der dort auftretenden Belastungen und Einstrahlungssituationen vorgestellt und demonstriert. Die maximal zulässige Netzanschlussleistung dezentraler photovoltaischer Energiewandlungsanlagen wird wesentlich durch die Siedlungsstruktur des betreffenden Niederspannungs-Netzbezirkes bestimmt. Durch Modifikation des Erzeugermodelles kann das Verfahren auch für andere dezentrale Kleinerzeuger im Niederspannungsnetz angewandt werden

En komplett bild av bosättningar från förhistorisk tid har alltid varit svår att kartlägga med tanke på hur tiden gömt undan dessa platser och lämningar genom nedbrytning av det material de tillverkats av och uppbyggnaden av nya lager av sediment. Arkeologer har genom tiden använt sig av en mängd olika typer av metoder och tekniker för att finna spår av dessa förhistoriska lämningar. I modern tid har GIS blivit ett vanligt användningsområde till att assistera den här processen. I den här studien är det ”predictive modeling” som använts för att förutsäga sannolikheten av att kunna hitta nya arkeologiska fynd baserat på redan funna och dess samband med egenskaper i landskapet och miljön. Med en relativt ny metod som använder sig av principen för maximal entropi i sin algoritm hoppas den här studien kunna visa prov på potentialen för den här tekniken i Sverige till att underlätta arkeologers arbete samt ge en inblick i det förflutna när det gäller människors framgång och val av bosättning. Genom att skapa modeller med programvaran Maxent producerades sannolikhetskartor över studieområdet baserat på 221 fyndplatser och upp till 16 faktorer samt statistiska diagram för att ge en djupare inblick i modellens byggnadsprocess. Validering av resultatet visade prov på mycket stor framgång. Trots det utmärkta resultatet finns en viss skepsis i hur behjälplig just den här modellen vore för arkeologin i att hitta nya bosättningar från forntiden. I och med att den här studien är rätt begränsad i sin tillgång till data har den ändå visat potentialen i hur algoritmer med användning av principen för maximal entropi har för arkeologin inom Sverige. Med ett större och mer precisare urval av fyndplatser och faktorer, både över miljö, landskap och övrigt, har modeller som denna en stor potential till att både assistera arkeologin att hitta fortfarande gömda fornnordiska boplatser och utvinna information om forntida människors liv och samhällen.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
A consorciação do milho e sorgo com gramíneas forrageiras pode ser utilizada tanto para a formação de pastagens, como a formação de cobertura morta no sistema de semeadura direta. Dentre os nutrientes aplicados nas fertilizações destaca-se o nitrogênio, devido ser o nutriente absorvido em maior quantidade pelas culturas e o que mais influencia na produtividade de grãos, tendo sua dinâmica no sistema solo-planta condicionada pelo manejo. O trabalho de pesquisa constou de dois experimentos que foram instalados na Fazenda Experimental Lageado da Faculdade de Ciências Agronômicas – Campus de Botucatu, num Latossolo Vermelho, cultivado há aproximadamente 5 anos em sistema de semeadura direta. O objetivo dos experimentos foi avaliar o efeito da adubação nitrogenada na cultura do milho e do sorgo no sistema de cultivo solteiro e consorciado com Brachiaria brizantha e Panicum maximum em sistema de semeadura direta e o posterior desempenho das forrageiras. O delineamento experimental foi o de blocos casualizados, em esquema de parcelas subdivididas, com quatro repetições. As parcelas foram representadas por três sistemas de cultivo da cultura produtora de grãos (cultivo solteiro, cultivo com B. brizantha na linha de semeadura e cultivo com P. maximum na linha de semeadura ) e as subparcelas por quatro doses de nitrogênio em cobertura (0, 50, 100 e 200 kg ha-1 de N). Foram avaliados os atributos químicos do solo, as características agronômicas da cultura, os componentes de produção, a diagnose foliar e a produtividade de grãos, além da produção de massa de matéria seca das forrageiras após a colheita da cultura. Tanto para a cultura do milho quanto para o sorgo pode-se inferir que o cultivo consorciado, desde que seja implantado e manejado adequadamente não afeta a produção de grãos em razão de...
Corn and sorghum intercropped with grass can be used both to pasture formation and to soil cover formation in no-tillage system. Nitrogen is prominent among the nutrients applied in fertilizations, because nitrogen is the most absored nutrient by crops and most affect the grains yield, and its dynamic in soil-plant system is conditioned by management. The research consisted of two experiments that were carried out at Lageado Experimental Farm, of Agricultural Science College, campus of Botucatu, in Red Latosol (Oxisol), cultivated to five years in no-tillage system. The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of nitrogen fertilization on corn and sorghum and Brachiaria brizantha and Panicum maximum intercrops in no-tillage system, and the behavior of forages. The experimental design was in randomized blocks with split plot analyses, with four replications. The plot treatments consisted of three modalities of tillage of corn and sorghum (single crop, intercrop with B. brizantha in the row of sowing or and with P. maximum in the row of sowing) and the split plot of four nitrogen rates (0, 50, 100, and 200 kg ha-1 N). It was evaluated the soil chemical attributes, the agronomical characteristics of crop, grains yield, leaf macronutrients content and forages yield. The intercrop system did not affect grain yield of corn and sorghum, because it did not cause negative effects in plant nutrition and growth. Nitrogen fertilization affected grains yield of corn and sorghum independently of the cultivation system. The residual effect of nitrogen applied on corn and sorghum caused an increased forage yield of B. brizantha and P. maximum. No difference was observed among the soil chemical attributes due to different cultivation systems, because of the high fertility of the soil. The highest net...(Complete abstract click electronic access below)

GSM has been developed during more than a decade and has grown to a very complex system. Due to the wide range of functionality, the high capacity and the complexity of the BSC the testing of stability and performance is time consuming. A simulator is needed for these tests as live networks are not available at this stage in the development process. The performance and stability need to be verified for each new release of functionality. This thesis describes a conceptual model of a GSM network. The conceptual model can be used to configure a simulated radio network and to communicate what is simulated on a conceptual level rather than a detailed level. The model presented consists of several sub models. The subscriber model describes the actions and movement of subscribers; the cell model describes the radio conditions experienced by a subscriber moving within one cell; and the cell network model describes the geographical and structural properties of the network. Together the models are used to compose scenarios with the aim to describe varying radio conditions, varying subscriber behavior and varying cell structures. The aim is that different features of the Ericsson base station controller shall be used in the different scenarios. The scenarios represent different parts of a radio network connected to the same base station controller.

Dampening systems are important in heavy vehicles utilized in rough terrains, with purpose to reduce shocks and vibrations with negative influences on the vehicle and, more importantly, on the operator of the vehicle. During the years the heavy vehicles require sturdier construction parts, due to demands on higher load capacity, where the easy solution to scale up the construction parts is not always applicable for dampening systems with nonlinear behavior. Hence, the sturdiness in the design of these dampening systems requires improvement. In this thesis the design of the rubber spring used as rubber spring in Volvo’s articulated hauler A40G is treated. The aim of this thesis is to find alternative design solutions on the rubber spring, improving its lifetime. The usual failure of these rubber springs is crack propagation in the rubber body. In the method of this thesis, alternative design solution are generated in concepts though brain storming, which are adjusted to achieve the desired behavior of the rubber spring through calculations and tested in performance through simulations in Abaqus. From analyzing the generated data, it is concluded that among the tested design solutions, a combination of fewer plates and shaping the plates as thin bowls, results in highest potential increase in lifetime.

För att vatten ska kunna levereras enligt de krav som ställs från användarna i samhället behövs ett väl anpassat ledningsnät. Det innebär bland annat att vatten ska finnas tillgängligt i den mängd som behövs och vid den tidpunkt som vatten krävs. För att vattenreningsverken ska kunna leverera rätt mängd vatten måste ledningsnätet vara dimensionerat för att kunna transportera allt vatten som skall pumpas ut till användarna. Detta kräver en god uppskattning om de vattenflöden som behövs. Det förväntade vattenflödet till olika samhällsanvändare uppskattas utifrån befintliga användningsmönster samt publikation P83, framtagen av Svenskt Vatten. Allt eftersom samhället utvecklas behöver publikationen uppdateras för att denna ska stämma så väl överens med verkligheten som möjligt. Vattenanvändningsmönster i skolor, kontor, handelsområden och industrier undersöktes som en del av ett pågående projekt för att undersöka om P83 bör uppdateras. För dessa har år- och dygnsvariationer, flöden och maxfaktorer analyserats från årslånga mätserier. Utifrån uppmätta värden kunde alternativa fördelningsnycklar som potentiellt skulle bidra till förbättring också analyseras. Resultaten tyder på att det finns förbättringsmöjligheter för flödesberäkningar för brukartyperna skolor, handel och industri jämfört med dagens metoder. För skolor och handel skulle inomhusarea vara en relevant fördelningsnyckel att använda vid beräkningar medan takyta vore en mer lämplig parameter att använda för industrier. De maxfaktorer som finns angivna i P83 stämde inte särskilt väl överens med de uppmätta i studien och skulle behöva uppdateras. Studien visar också på ett behov av att dela upp de brukarkategorier som finns i dagsläget till fler kategorier då de tre som finns i dagsläget är mycket generella. Dessutom undersöktes möjligheten att kombinera olika brukartyper för att utjämna vattenflöden under dygnet. Villor eller radhus bör lämpligen kombineras med skolor, kontor eller industrier för att få ett jämnare vattenflöde under dagtid.
For water to be delivered according to the requirements of the users in the society there is a need for the water pipelines to be well dimensioned. This means that the amount of water that is needed has to be available at the time when it is required. For the water treatment plants to be able to deliver the right amount of water the pipelines must be sized to carry the water that should be delivered to the users. This requires a good estimate of the amount of water needed. The expected water flow to different users is estimated based on existing water usage patterns as well as the P83 publication, developed by Swedish Water. As society develops the publication may need to be updated to correspond well with reality. Water use patterns in schools, offices, retail stores and industries were examined as a part of an ongoing project to investigate whether P83 should be updated. For these annual and diurnal variations, water flows and max factors were analyzed from yearlong series of measurements. Based on the measured values alternate allocation keys that could potentially contribute to improvement were analyzed. The results suggest that there are possible improvements for flow calculations for schools, retail stores and industry compared to current methods. For schools and retail stores the indoor area would be a relevant variable to use for calculations, while the roof area would be a more appropriate variable to use for industries. The max factors listed in P83 did not agree with those measured in the study and would need to be updated. The study shows that the three categories used in P83 are very general and ought to be divided into more specific categories. Furthermore, the possibility to combine different types of water users to equalize the water flow to an area during the day was analyzed. Villas or semi-attached houses should preferably be combined with schools, offices or industries for evening out the flow during day time.

Orientador: Carlos Alexandre Costa Crusciol
Banca: Ciro Antonio Rosolem
Banca: Salatier Buzetti
Banca: Heitor Cantarella
Banca: Waldo Alejandro Ruben Cabezas
Resumo: A consorciação do milho e sorgo com gramíneas forrageiras pode ser utilizada tanto para a formação de pastagens, como a formação de cobertura morta no sistema de semeadura direta. Dentre os nutrientes aplicados nas fertilizações destaca-se o nitrogênio, devido ser o nutriente absorvido em maior quantidade pelas culturas e o que mais influencia na produtividade de grãos, tendo sua dinâmica no sistema solo-planta condicionada pelo manejo. O trabalho de pesquisa constou de dois experimentos que foram instalados na Fazenda Experimental Lageado da Faculdade de Ciências Agronômicas - Campus de Botucatu, num Latossolo Vermelho, cultivado há aproximadamente 5 anos em sistema de semeadura direta. O objetivo dos experimentos foi avaliar o efeito da adubação nitrogenada na cultura do milho e do sorgo no sistema de cultivo solteiro e consorciado com Brachiaria brizantha e Panicum maximum em sistema de semeadura direta e o posterior desempenho das forrageiras. O delineamento experimental foi o de blocos casualizados, em esquema de parcelas subdivididas, com quatro repetições. As parcelas foram representadas por três sistemas de cultivo da cultura produtora de grãos (cultivo solteiro, cultivo com B. brizantha na linha de semeadura e cultivo com P. maximum na linha de semeadura ) e as subparcelas por quatro doses de nitrogênio em cobertura (0, 50, 100 e 200 kg ha-1 de N). Foram avaliados os atributos químicos do solo, as características agronômicas da cultura, os componentes de produção, a diagnose foliar e a produtividade de grãos, além da produção de massa de matéria seca das forrageiras após a colheita da cultura. Tanto para a cultura do milho quanto para o sorgo pode-se inferir que o cultivo consorciado, desde que seja implantado e manejado adequadamente não afeta a produção de grãos em razão de ...(Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo)
Abstract: Corn and sorghum intercropped with grass can be used both to pasture formation and to soil cover formation in no-tillage system. Nitrogen is prominent among the nutrients applied in fertilizations, because nitrogen is the most absored nutrient by crops and most affect the grains yield, and its dynamic in soil-plant system is conditioned by management. The research consisted of two experiments that were carried out at Lageado Experimental Farm, of Agricultural Science College, campus of Botucatu, in Red Latosol (Oxisol), cultivated to five years in no-tillage system. The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of nitrogen fertilization on corn and sorghum and Brachiaria brizantha and Panicum maximum intercrops in no-tillage system, and the behavior of forages. The experimental design was in randomized blocks with split plot analyses, with four replications. The plot treatments consisted of three modalities of tillage of corn and sorghum (single crop, intercrop with B. brizantha in the row of sowing or and with P. maximum in the row of sowing) and the split plot of four nitrogen rates (0, 50, 100, and 200 kg ha-1 N). It was evaluated the soil chemical attributes, the agronomical characteristics of crop, grains yield, leaf macronutrients content and forages yield. The intercrop system did not affect grain yield of corn and sorghum, because it did not cause negative effects in plant nutrition and growth. Nitrogen fertilization affected grains yield of corn and sorghum independently of the cultivation system. The residual effect of nitrogen applied on corn and sorghum caused an increased forage yield of B. brizantha and P. maximum. No difference was observed among the soil chemical attributes due to different cultivation systems, because of the high fertility of the soil. The highest net...(Complete abstract click electronic access below)
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This study aims to determine the appropriate size of field plots for field experimentation with sunflower. An experiment was conducted in randomized complete blocks design with 14 cultivars of sunflower and 10 replications. The field plots consisted of four rows of six-meter long rows, spaced 0.7 m and 0.3 m between plants, with a total area of 16.8 m2. The useful area of the plot (7.56 m2), consisting of the two central rows, was divided into 12 basic units, each one consisting of three plants in the row (0.63 m2). The production of sunflower grains obtained in basic units was grouped in order to form portions of seven kinds of five different predefined sizes. The appropriate size of the experimental plot was estimated by the following methods: a) Intraclass correlation coefficient b) Maximum modified curvature c) Segmented linear model with plateau and d) Hatheway (1961). Were also estimated the soil heterogeneity coefficient (b) and the detectable difference among treatments (d). There was a reduction in the coefficient of variation with increasing the size of the plot. The soil of the experiment showed high heterogeneity ( = 1.0585). They were estimated by the methods of the intraclass correlation coefficient, maximum modified curvature and segmented linear model with plateau, respectively, the optimal plot sizes corresponding to 2.52, 3.74 and 2.48 m2. The maximum modified curvature method presented estimate of the optimum plot size more appropriate, together with the detectable difference between means of cultivars to accurately assess the yield of sunflower grain. The plot of 3.74 m2 of useful area was considered appropriate to assess the yield of sunflower grains and it was smaller than the size generally used in researches with sunflower. Though the Hatheway method (1961), they were estimated several very aplicable plot sizes. Considering all the cultivars for the same difference to be detected among means of cultivars, the use of a portion of smaller size with the largest number of replicates required less experimental area than the larger plots with a fewer number of replications
O objetivo desse trabalho foi determinar o tamanho adequado de parcela para experimentação de campo com girassol. Foi realizado um experimento no delineamento em blocos completos casualizados com 14 cultivares de girassol e 10 repetições. As parcelas foram constituídas de quatro fileiras de seis metros de comprimento, espaçadas de 0,7 m e entre plantas de 0,3 m, com área total de 16,8 m2. A área útil da parcela (7,56 m2), composta das duas fileiras centrais, foi dividida em 12 unidades básicas, cada uma constituída de três plantas na fileira (0,63 m2). A produção de grãos do girassol obtida nas unidades básicas foi agrupada de modo a formar sete tipos de parcelas de cinco tamanhos diferentes pré-estabelecidos. O tamanho adequado da parcela experimental foi estimado por meio dos seguintes métodos: a) Coeficiente de correlação intraclasse; b) Máxima curvatura modificado; c) Modelo linear segmentado com platô e d) Hatheway (1961). Estimaram-se também o coeficiente de heterogeneidade do solo (b) e a diferença detectável entre tratamentos (d). Ocorreu redução do coeficiente de variação com o aumento do tamanho da parcela. O solo do experimento apresentou alta heterogeneidade ( = 1,0585). Foram estimados pelos métodos do coeficiente de correlação intraclasse, máxima curvatura modificado e modelo linear segmentado com platô, respectivamente, os tamanhos ótimos de parcela correspondentes a 2,52, 3,74 e 2,48 m2. O método da máxima curvatura modificado apresentou estimativa do tamanho ótimo da parcela mais adequado, aliado à diferença detectável entre médias de cultivares para avaliar com precisão o rendimento de grãos do girassol. Parcela 3,74 m2 de área útil foi considerada adequada para avaliação do rendimento de grãos do girassol e foi menor que o tamanho geralmente usado nas pesquisas com o girassol. Pelo método de Hatheway (1961) estimaram-se diversos tamanhos de parcelas, muitos aplicáveis. Considerando todas as cultivares, para uma mesma diferença a ser detectada entre médias de cultivares, a utilização de parcela de menor tamanho com maior número de repetições requereu menos área experimental do que parcelas maiores com menor número de repetições

Велике воде су сложена појава како у погледу фактора који је изазивају, тако иу  погледу  њеног  утицаја  на  екосистем  и друштво.  У  дисертацији  је  приказана предност  анализе  великих  вода,  са  две променљиве  (запремине  и  трајање),  у односу  на  уобичајену  анализу  са  једном вредношћу  (најчешће  максимални годишњи  протицај).  Резултати  добијени статистичком анализом великих вода, које су издвојене методом  прага су показали да имају већу применљивост у водопривреди него  методе  које  користе  стандардне вредности,  јер  дају  конкретне  вредности могућих  количина  воде  (запремине великих вода)  Метода прага је примењена на  22  станица  на  четири  највеће  реке Панонског  басена  (Дунав,  Сава,  Тиса  и Драва) за период 1964-2013. година што до сад  представља  највећи  узорак  на  овако великом  географском  подручју.  Као  праг за  издвајање  великих  вода  узета  је вредност  Q10,  јер  је  циљ  био  анализа просторних  и  временских  карактеристика екстремних    великих вода у највећих река Панонског басена. Избор прага утицао је и на  избор  методе  годишњих  максимума  за статистичку  анализу  карактеристика великих  вода.  За  одређивање  параметра  теоријских  расподела  коришћени  су  L-моменти  који  дају  поузданије  оцене параметара  од  обичних  момената.  У досадашњим  радовима,  који  су анализирали  карактеристике  великих  вода методом  годишњих  максимума,  функција расподеле  се  унапред  одабирала,  а  не  на основу  тестова  сагласности  и  провере графика вероватноће, као што је урађено у овој  дисертацији.  За  проверу  сагласности годишњег максимума запремина и трајања коришћени  су  тестови  Колмогоров-Смирнов  и  Крамер  –Мизес,  на  основу којих су изабране меродавне расподеле за прорачун  великих  вода  различитих повратних  периода  на  станицама,  и обрнуто.  Помоћу  L-момент  дијаграма  (LCs/L-Ck)  утврђена  је  хомогеност  региона, у  овом  случају  Панонског  басена,  као  иизабрана  регионална  расподела  (LN)  за запремине и трајање велике воде.  Кластер анализа коришћена  је као друга метода за издвајање  хомогених  региона.  На  основу ове  анализе  у  Панонском  басену  су издвојена  три  региона  која  имају  исте карактеистике.
Velike vode su složena pojava kako u pogledu faktora koji je izazivaju, tako iu  pogledu  njenog  uticaja  na  ekosistem  i društvo.  U  disertaciji  je  prikazana prednost  analize  velikih  voda,  sa  dve promenljive  (zapremine  i  trajanje),  u odnosu  na  uobičajenu  analizu  sa  jednom vrednošću  (najčešće  maksimalni godišnji  proticaj).  Rezultati  dobijeni statističkom analizom velikih voda, koje su izdvojene metodom  praga su pokazali da imaju veću primenljivost u vodoprivredi nego  metode  koje  koriste  standardne vrednosti,  jer  daju  konkretne  vrednosti mogućih  količina  vode  (zapremine velikih voda)  Metoda praga je primenjena na  22  stanica  na  četiri  najveće  reke Panonskog  basena  (Dunav,  Sava,  Tisa  i Drava) za period 1964-2013. godina što do sad  predstavlja  najveći  uzorak  na  ovako velikom  geografskom  području.  Kao  prag za  izdvajanje  velikih  voda  uzeta  je vrednost  Q10,  jer  je  cilj  bio  analiza prostornih  i  vremenskih  karakteristika ekstremnih    velikih voda u najvećih reka Panonskog basena. Izbor praga uticao je i na  izbor  metode  godišnjih  maksimuma  za statističku  analizu  karakteristika velikih  voda.  Za  određivanje  parametra  teorijskih  raspodela  korišćeni  su  L-momenti  koji  daju  pouzdanije  ocene parametara  od  običnih  momenata.  U dosadašnjim  radovima,  koji  su analizirali  karakteristike  velikih  voda metodom  godišnjih  maksimuma,  funkcija raspodele  se  unapred  odabirala,  a  ne  na osnovu  testova  saglasnosti  i  provere grafika verovatnoće, kao što je urađeno u ovoj  disertaciji.  Za  proveru  saglasnosti godišnjeg maksimuma zapremina i trajanja korišćeni  su  testovi  Kolmogorov-Smirnov  i  Kramer  –Mizes,  na  osnovu kojih su izabrane merodavne raspodele za proračun  velikih  voda  različitih povratnih  perioda  na  stanicama,  i obrnuto.  Pomoću  L-moment  dijagrama  (LCs/L-Ck)  utvrđena  je  homogenost  regiona, u  ovom  slučaju  Panonskog  basena,  kao  iizabrana  regionalna  raspodela  (LN)  za zapremine i trajanje velike vode.  Klaster analiza korišćena  je kao druga metoda za izdvajanje  homogenih  regiona.  Na  osnovu ove  analize  u  Panonskom  basenu  su izdvojena  tri  regiona  koja  imaju  iste karakteistike.
High  waters  are  a  complex phenomenon  both  in  terms  of  the  factors  that cause it, as well as in terms of its impact on the ecosystem  and  society.  This  dissertation presents  the  advantage  of  analyzing  high waters  with  two  variables  (volumes  and duration), compared to the usual analysis with one  value  (usually  the   maximum  annual discharge).  The  results  obtained  by  the statistical  analysis  of  high  waters,  which  are defined  by  the  threshold  method,  have  shown that  they  have  greater  applicability  in  water management  than  methods  that  use  standard values  because  they  give  concrete  values  of possible  water  quantities  (volume  of  highwaters).  The  threshold  method  was  applied  to 22 stations on the four largest rivers Pannonian Basin  (Danube,  Sava,  Tisa  and  Drava)  for the period  1964-2013.  This  represents  the  largest sample  in  such  a  large  geographical  area.  The value  of  Q10  was  taken  as  the  threshold  for defining  the  high  waters,  as  the  aim  was  to analyze the spatial and  temporal   characteristics of extreme  high waters  in the  largest rivers of the  Pannonian  Basin.  The  threshold  selection also  influenced  the  selection  of  the  annual maximum method for statistical analysis of the characteristics of high waters. L-moments wereused  to  determine  the  parameter  of  the theoretical  distributions,  which  give  more reliable  estimates  of  parameters  than  ordinary moments.  In  the  previous  researches,  which analyzed  the  characteristics  of  high  waters  by the  method  of  annual  maximums,  the distribution  function  was  selected  in  advance, and  not  on  the  basis  of  tests  of  approval  and check  of  probability  graphs,  as  is  done  in  this dissertation. In order to  check the goodness-offit  tests  of  annual  maximum   volumes  and duration,  the  tests  Kolmogorov-Smirnov  and Kramer-Mizes  were  used,  and  based  on  their results  representative  distribution  was  chosen for  calculation  of  different  return  periods  of high waters on the stations, and vice versa.  The L-moment  diagram  (L-Cs/L-Ck)  determined the homogeneity   of the region, in this case the Pannonian  basin.  L-moments  were  used  for selection  of  regional  distribution  (LN)  forvolumes  and  duration  of  high  waters.  Cluster analysis  was  used  as  the  second  method  for separating homogeneous regions.  Based on this analysis  in the Pannonian  Basin, three regions have  been  identified  that  have  the  same hydrological characteristics.

Background: Physiologic functional capacity through maximal oxygen uptake (V̇O2max) can be measured in many different ways depending on sport and qualities needed to be assessed.In handball a demanding 3000 meter (m) running test is used to evaluate V̇O2max. If this test is sport specific or if it could be replaced by a less strenuous test is unknown. Aim: The aim ofthis study was to compare performance on 3000-meter running with predicted V̇O2max from a submaximal treadmill jogging test (SMTJ) and performance of the Yo-Yo intermittentrecovery test 1 (IR1). Methods: Male handball players (n = 12) performed the 3000 m running test, the Submaximal Treadmill Jogging test and the Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery test level 1. Measurements in seconds (s), ml ∙ kg-1 ∙ min-1 and meters where collected and correlated using Pearson r, interclass correlation. Results: A strong significant linear correlation (p < 0.01) was found between performance in 3000 m running (s) and Yo-Yo IR1 performance (m), r = - 0.724 (r2 = 0.524). A weak, not significant linear correlation (p > 0.05)was found between performance in 3000 m running (s) and predicted V̇O2max from submaximal treadmill test (ml ∙ kg-1 ∙ min-1), r = - 0.309 (r2 = 0.095). Conclusion: According to this study the 3000 m running test could be replaced by the Yo-Yo IR1 test or vice versa in adolescent male handball players. The submaximal treadmill test used in this study had several potential errors in estimating V̇O2max, this is probably the reason why only a weak correlation was found between the SMTJ and the 3000 m running test.

Studien syftar till att undersöka illustrationsplaners betydelse som ett förtydligande dokument till detaljplanen, samt i vilken utsträckning illustrationsplaner uppfyller tydlighetskravet i 4 kap 32 och 33 § § Plan- och bygglagen (PBL). Studien har framtagits med avsikt att uppmärksamma en problematik vars effekter kan påverka det faktiska medborgarinflytandet. En brist på forskning har observerats inom ämnet och studien avser därför bidra till att fylla den kunskapsluckan i samhällsplaneringen.  Tydlighetskravet innebär att detaljplanens regleringar tydligt ska redovisas för att säkerställa medborgarnas förståelse för planens innebörd och konsekvenser. I avsikt att uppnå tydlighetskravet används ofta illustrationsplaner som kommunikationsverktyg för att förmedla detaljplanens syfte och planbestämmelser till allmänheten. Detta beror på att detaljplanen ofta kan upplevas svårtydd eftersom detaljplankartans utformning tydligt skiljer sig från hur kartor brukar illustreras i andra sammanhang. Genom kvalitativ innehållsanalys ämnar undersökningen besvara i vilken utsträckning illustrationsplaner uppfyller tydlighetskravet i PBL. Vid undersökningen jämfördes detaljplanekarta och planbestämmelser med tillhörande illustrationsplan för att gradera hur tydliga illustrationsplaner är. Detta genomfördes genom ett antal uppställda påståenden som illustrationsplanen kunde svara mot. Påståendena baseras bland annat på tidigare domslut kring illustrationer samt semiotikens syn på hur bilder kan tolkas. Undersökningen kompletterades med ett antal intervjuer från branschkunniga personer, detta för att få en mer kvalitativ och djupgående förståelse för resultatet samt illustrationsplaners betydelse som kommunikativt verktyg. Undersökningens resultat visar på en bristfällighet hos de undersökta illustrationsplanerna vad gäller tydlighet. Svårtolkade illustrationsplaner försvårar medborgarens möjligheter att uppfatta detaljplanens konsekvenser och deras möjlighet att lämna relevanta synpunkter under planprocessen minskar därmed ytterligare. Denna syn på illustrationsplanens potentiella konsekvenser delades med de personer som intervjuades i samband med studien.  Med undersökningen och intervjuerna som grund har ett antal ställningstaganden och förslag sammanställts som anses inneha praktisk relevans för samhällsplaneringen. Ett exempel på detta är att en mer gedigen vägledning bör tas fram, till förmån för en nationellt enhetligare användning av illustrationer. Vägledningen hade kunnat utformas på olika sätt, bland annat genom att bristfälliga planer sammanställs för att påvisa vilka konsekvenser som kan följa av en otydlig illustrationsplan. Därtill har även annan typ av vägledning samt andra förslag lyfts fram i studiens slutsatser.

Regression is a central problem in statistics and machine learning with applications everywhere in science and technology. In probabilistic regression the relationship between a set of features and a real-valued target variable is modelled as a conditional probability distribution. There are cases where this distribution is very complex and not properly captured by simple approximations, such as assuming a normal distribution. This thesis investigates how conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) can be used to properly capture more complex conditional distributions. GANs have seen great success in generating complex high-dimensional data, but less work has been done on their use for regression problems. This thesis presents experiments to better understand how conditional GANs can be used in probabilistic regression. Different versions of GANs are extended to the conditional case and evaluated on synthetic and real datasets. It is shown that conditional GANs can learn to estimate a wide range of different distributions and be competitive with existing probabilistic regression models.

abstract: Ten regional climate models (RCMs) and atmosphere-ocean generalized model parings from the North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program were used to estimate the shift of extreme precipitation due to climate change using present-day and future-day climate scenarios. RCMs emulate winter storms and one-day duration events at the sub-regional level. Annual maximum series were derived for each model pairing, each modeling period; and for annual and winter seasons. The reliability ensemble average (REA) method was used to qualify each RCM annual maximum series to reproduce historical records and approximate average predictions, because there are no future records. These series determined (a) shifts in extreme precipitation frequencies and magnitudes, and (b) shifts in parameters during modeling periods. The REA method demonstrated that the winter season had lower REA factors than the annual season. For the winter season the RCM pairing of the Hadley regional Model 3 and the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model had the lowest REA factors. However, in replicating present-day climate, the pairing of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics' Regional Climate Model Version 3 with the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model was superior. Shifts of extreme precipitation in the 24-hour event were measured using precipitation magnitude for each frequency in the annual maximum series, and the difference frequency curve in the generalized extreme-value-function parameters. The average trend of all RCM pairings implied no significant shift in the winter annual maximum series, however the REA-selected models showed an increase in annual-season precipitation extremes: 0.37 inches for the 100-year return period and for the winter season suggested approximately 0.57 inches for the same return period. Shifts of extreme precipitation were estimated using predictions 70 years into the future based on RCMs. Although these models do not provide climate information for the intervening 70 year period, the models provide an assertion on the behavior of future climate. The shift in extreme precipitation may be significant in the frequency distribution function, and will vary depending on each model-pairing condition. The proposed methodology addresses the many uncertainties associated with the current methodologies dealing with extreme precipitation.
Dissertation/Thesis
M.S. Civil and Environmental Engineering 2013

Extreme rainfall events have triggered a significant number of flash floods in Madeira Island along its past and recent history. Madeira is a volcanic island where the spatial rainfall distribution is strongly affected by its rugged topography. In this thesis, annual maximum of daily rainfall data from 25 rain gauge stations located in Madeira Island were modelled by the generalised extreme value distribution. Also, the hypothesis of a Gumbel distribution was tested by two methods and the existence of a linear trend in both distributions parameters was analysed. Estimates for the 50– and 100–year return levels were also obtained. Still in an univariate context, the assumption that a distribution function belongs to the domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution for monthly maximum rainfall data was tested for the rainy season. The available data was then analysed in order to find the most suitable domain of attraction for the sampled distribution. In a different approach, a search for thresholds was also performed for daily rainfall values through a graphical analysis. In a multivariate context, a study was made on the dependence between extreme rainfall values from the considered stations based on Kendall’s τ measure. This study suggests the influence of factors such as altitude, slope orientation, distance between stations and their proximity of the sea on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall. Groups of three pairwise associated stations were also obtained and an adjustment was made to a family of extreme value copulas involving the Marshall–Olkin family, whose parameters can be written as a function of Kendall’s τ association measures of the obtained pairs.

碩士
逢甲大學
水利工程與資源保育學系
104
Regional analysis is a very important part of the design in hydraulic engineering. Base on measured data from the past,this study can find correlations between the stations.Therefore, regional analysis solve the situation inadequate data, and creates a partition for each of rainfall in Taiwan. This study used two cluster approaches, Cluster analysis and self-organizing map (SOM) with the reference of 127 raingauge data (recorded over 20-years). Hydrological factors presented annual maximum 24-hour rainfall data (mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis), and Physiographical factor displayed station locations and elevation.After this study established each rainfall characteristics partitions, this study detected partition information by L-moment method.The results showed that after adjusting rainfall characteristics data, the two classifications were likely uniformity. Next, this study used the goodness-of-fit measurement to select the best regional probability distributions of rainfall.The Cluster Analysis results show that the best regional probability distribution for 2 normal distribution ,the Gumbel I and the Pearson type III distribution were the best for 1 region.On the other hand, SOM only shows 3 normal distributions and 2 Gumbel I distributions.Finally, this study used SOM results and with Thiessen polygons method dividing Taiwan rainfall characteristics into several partition. In the absence of rainfall frequency analysis information, this storm frequency analysis results will provide a reference for the design of future project planning.

碩士
淡江大學
土木工程學系碩士班
102
Taiwan is an island located in the western Pacific Ocean and suffered from strong winds, such as tropical cyclones or typhoons in the summer season and monsoons in the winter season. To give a wind resistant design of a structure, specialists and structural engineers need to understand the local design wind speed in detail. However, due to the lack of observed wind speed data, numerical models are developed to simulate design wind speed. In this study, analysis on annual maximum wind speed and the peak wind speed during a typhoon event is executed. 29 meteorological stations in Taiwan are collected to understand the basic statistical parameters of 10-minute mean wind speeds. Further, the trend of annual maximum wind speed and the highly correlated third and fourth moments are found. To tell the extreme distribution of 29 stations, the GEVD extreme value distribution model is applied. Then a non-Gaussian simulation technique called Hermite-based transform is adopted for simulation of annual maximum wind speed for each station by inputting their statistical parameters. Results show that even the simulation is based on short term period record, the non-Gaussian simulation method to simulation the annual maximum wind speed provides fairly good agreement with the full-year observation. Finally in this study, the typhoon event is especially picked up among 4 stations, Yilan , Aliahsn , Hsinchu , Kaohsiung, to show the inconsistence with the distribution with annual maximum wind speeds. The GEVD model is also applied for discussion.

碩士
國立屏東科技大學
水土保持系
91
Five frequency analysis methods were used in this study for the Maximum one day rainfall and annual from the data issued by Central Weather Bureau(CWB) of weather observation station in December, 2000(5th edition) and data in annual book about 188 weather observation stations of CWB in Kaohsiung and Pingtung. As the results of analysis shown, it is suggested to use Pearson type Ⅲ method for predicting frequency analysis of annual rainfall in Kaohsiung City, Kaohsiung County, Pingtung County, and the whole region of Kaohsiung and Pingtung; for the Maximum one day rainfall,Log Natural Distribution for predicting frequency analysis is suggested to use in Kaohsiung City, Log Pearson type Ⅲ method in Kaohsiung County, Pingtung County, and the whole region of Kaohsiung and Pingtung. Based on the distributions from applicable theories, the most applicable theory for each station was found. Then, use the hydrological frequency analysis to estimate the hydrological parameters of 5-yr, 20-yr, 25-yr, 50-yr and 100-yr, and draw the rainfall contour map accordingly for the reference for different requirements. The rainfall contour map shows that the rainfall increases as the elevation increases, but it is hard to estimate the increase rate. By taking each village, town, city and district as the regional units, the frequency regression equations, R squares and standard deviations were obtained, which can provide the relevant engineers an easy way to obtain the hydrological parameters for the reference of construction design. As for the relationship of rainfalls and elevations of station, it can be found from the results of this study that the more the year number of record, the closer the relationship between the average annual rainfall and the maximum one day rainfall. Therefore, as the year number of record increases, the reliability of the hydrological frequency analysis increases. However, the average annual rainfall and the maximum one day rainfall increase as the elevation of the stations increases, but there is no fixed increase trend. The average annual rainfall and maximum one day rainfall have no conspicuous relationship with the elevations of the stations. Especially, the relationship of the maximum one day rainfall and the elevation is worse.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1997.
Typescript. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 411-424).

碩士
淡江大學
水資源及環境工程學系碩士班
95
The purpose of the study aims to estimate frequencies of annual maximum 1-day rainfall for ungauged sites in Taiwan using regionalization approach. The index flood method with parameters estimated by L-moments is used to establish the regional frequency model. Kriging is then employed to estimate the mean annual maximum 1-day rainfall of ungauged sites in order to analyze the rainfall magnitudes of various frequencies. Delineation of homogeneous regions is determined by cluster analysis in this study based on the coordinates of the rainfall gauge stations, the means and coefficient of variation of the annual maximum 1-day rainfall. The L-moment based discordancy, heterogeneity, and goodness-of-fit measures are then used to detect unusual sites and select the optimal regional probability models. In this study, a total of 77 rainfall gauge stations are used as the basis to estimate the frequencies of the annual maximum 1-day rainfall for ungauged sites. The number of homogeneous regions derived by cluster analysis is 3. The best regional probability model for one region is Pearson type Ⅲ distribution, and generalized Pareto distribution is the best model for the other two regions. Frequency analysis for ungauged sites needs to establish the variogram models of the mean and coefficient of variation of the annual maximum 1-day rainfall first. The obtained variogram models is then used to estimate the mean annual maximum 1-day rainfall for the ungauged sites. The ungauged sites belong to which homogeneous region depend on the minimum distance to the centroid of the homogeneous regions. Combined with the derived regional frequency model and estimated mean annual maximum 1-day rainfall, the computing procedures of frequency analysis for ungauged sites are identical with the procedures of gauged sites.

碩士
國立臺灣大學
土木工程學研究所
101
Due to the climate changing, the hydrological stationarity, a fundamental component of engineering design and practice involves predicting or characterizing future conditions based on previous observation or record, could be inappropriate. We have been experiencing more intense and more frequent extreme hydrological events in recent. Under current climate changing condition, the stationary assumption and corresponding assessment approach need to be re-evaluated carefully. This study investigates the nonstationarity of annual maximum daily precipitation in Taiwan. Based on the concept of IDT (identification of distribution and trend), three different schemes are applied to analyze the precipitation data from nine major cities in Taiwan. These studies adopts, Weighted Least Square Method, Discrete Wavelet Transform Method, and Empirical Mode Decomposition, to explore the time variation of first and second statistical moments of annual maximum precipitation. From the analysis, we find that all the three schemes demonstrate clear nonstationarity in Keelung, Taitung and Hwalian. According the result, this study further discusses the change of exceedance probability and return period in the near future. As results, we can determine the hydrological risks, review the current management policies and engineering standards, and have a better long term planning in engineering.

Many commercially grown apple cultivars have a biennial cropping habit, producing many small fruit in one year and few or none in the following year. The production of fruits is known to inhibit flower initiation for the following year. This undesirable trait is frequently managed by removing (thinning) some flowers or young fruit in years of heavy flowering which improves the size of remaining fruits, but does not reliably improve flowering in the following year. The effect of thinning on flower initiation is not well understood. Two mathematical models are developed describing the relationship between flowering in one year and the next. The first models the effects of thinning on return bloom and attempts to define maximum repeatable flower number. The second models how proximity of growing points may impact biennial bearing and maximum annual flower number. This second model may be useful to advance research into biennial bearing in apple.

碩士
淡江大學
水資源及環境工程研究所
81
Houghton(1978)提出威克拜分布(Wakeby Distribution) ，本研究將其與頻率分析中 常用之分布(TN、LN2、LN3、EV1、PT3及LPT3)作一詳盡之比較，究中使用合成資以模 擬各迴歸周期之理論值及模擬隨機樣本值兩者來探討威克拜分布之性，並分析台灣年 一日、二日及三日最大暴兩量，探討威克拜分布之適用性。合成資之研究結果顯示威 克拜分布無論於推估各頻率理論值或擬合樣本值上，其精確度均較六種常用分布為高 ，同時，實測資料研究結果亦顯示威克拜分布較其他常用分布更適合模擬台灣暴雨資