Relevant bibliographies by topics / Analisi probabilistica

Academic literature on the topic 'Analisi probabilistica'

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Published: 11 March 2023

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Journal articles on the topic "Analisi probabilistica"

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De la Sen, M. "On Probabilistic Alpha-Fuzzy Fixed Points and Related Convergence Results in Probabilistic Metric and Menger Spaces under Some Pompeiu-Hausdorff-Like Probabilistic Contractive Conditions." Journal of Function Spaces 2015 (2015): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/213174.

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In the framework of complete probabilistic metric spaces and, in particular, in probabilistic Menger spaces, this paper investigates some relevant properties of convergence of sequences to probabilisticα-fuzzy fixed points under some types of probabilistic contractive conditions.
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Anwar, Fadrinsyah. "Analisis Kualitas Pelayanan Terminal Kargo Bandara Dengan Jaringan Probabilistik." WARTA ARDHIA 41, no. 2 (August 16, 2017): 59. http://dx.doi.org/10.25104/wa.v41i2.145.59-68.

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Service quality measurement at the airport can give a lot of essentialinput for the airport management, especially in determining the appropriate airport management strategy. This study aims to assess the causal relationship of several factors that are assumed may affect the service process at the cargo terminal. The causal relationship model is built on the perception of the service user satisfaction on the performance of the facilities, the performance of Human Resources (HR), and the performance of services at the airport cargo terminal. Thedevelopment of causal relationship model using probabilistic networks. The analysis results on the case of cargo terminal of Juanda Airport in Surabaya show that the performance improvement of facilities and HR can improve the performance of services in the cargo terminal. Furthermore, the important factors that affect the performance improvement of SERVICES arethe storage facilities, the availability of handling equipment in apron, and the skill and knowledge of the officer in the cargo terminal. Keywords: cargo terminal, service quality, probabilistic network. Pengukuran kualitas pelayanan di bandara dapat memberikan banyak masukan penting bagi manajemen bandara terutama dalam menentukan strategi pengelolaan bandara yang baik. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji hubungan kausal faktor-faktor yang diasumsikan dapat mempengaruhi proses pelayanan di terminal kargo. Model hubungan kausal dibangun berdasarkan persepsi kepuasan pengguna jasa terhadap kinerja fasilitas, kinerja Sumber Daya Manusia (SDM), dan kinerja pelayanan di terminal kargo bandara. Pengembangan model hubungan kausal menggunakan metode jaringan probabilistik. Hasil analisis pada kasus terminal kargo Bandara Juanda - Surabaya menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan kinerja fasilitas dan kinerja SDM dapat meningkatkan kinerja pelayanan di terminal kargo. Adapun faktor-faktor penting yang mempengaruhi peningkatan kinerja PELAYANAN adalah fasilitas penyimpanan barang, kelengkapan atau ketersediaan peralatan penanganan barang di apron, dan keterampilan kerja dan pengetahuan petugas terminal kargo. Kata kunci: terminal kargo, kualitas pelayanan, jaringan probabilistik.
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Riveros, Bruno, Mariana Rosim, Gabriel Pedro, Rosa Lucchetta, and Marcelo Nita. "Análise de custo-efetividade e a análise de sensibilidade, um roteiro para execução de uma abordagem probabilística: Introdução à análise de sensibilidade probabilística (Parte I)." Jornal de Assistência Farmacêutica e Farmacoeconomia 1, no. 2 (December 2016): 33–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.22563/2525-7323.2016.v1.n2.p.33-38.

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Hartini, Entin, Roziq Himawan, and Mike Susmikanti. "FRACTURE MECHANICS UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN THE RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE REACTOR PRESSURE VESSEL: (2D) SUBJECTED TO INTERNAL PRESSURE." JURNAL TEKNOLOGI REAKTOR NUKLIR TRI DASA MEGA 18, no. 2 (June 6, 2016): 55. http://dx.doi.org/10.17146/tdm.2016.18.2.2466.

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ABSTRACT FRACTURE MECHANICS UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN THE RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE REACTOR PRESSURE VESSEL: (2D) SUBJECTED TO INTERNAL PRESSURE. The reactor pressure vessel (RPV) is a pressure boundary in the PWR type reactor which serves to confine radioactive material during chain reaction process. The integrity of the RPV must be guaranteed either in a normal operation or accident conditions. In analyzing the integrity of RPV, especially related to the crack behavior which can introduce break to the reactor pressure vessel, a fracture mechanic approach should be taken for this assessment. The uncertainty of input used in the assessment, such as mechanical properties and physical environment, becomes a reason that the assessment is not sufficient if it is perfomed only by deterministic approach. Therefore, the uncertainty approach should be applied. The aim of this study is to analize the uncertainty of fracture mechanics calculations in evaluating the reliability of PWR`s reactor pressure vessel. Random character of input quantity was generated using probabilistic principles and theories. Fracture mechanics analysis is solved by Finite Element Method (FEM) with MSC MARC software, while uncertainty input analysis is done based on probability density function with Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) using python script. The output of MSC MARC is a J-integral value, which is converted into stress intensity factor for evaluating the reliability of RPV’s 2D. From the result of the calculation, it can be concluded that the SIF from probabilistic method, reached the limit value of fracture toughness earlier than SIF from deterministic method. The SIF generated by the probabilistic method is 105.240 MPa m0.5. Meanwhile, the SIF generated by deterministic method is 100.876 MPa m0.5. Keywords: Uncertainty analysis, fracture mechanics, LHS, FEM, reactor pressure vessels ABSTRAK ANALISIS KETIDAKPASTIAN FRACTURE MECHANIC PADA EVALUASI KEANDALAN BEJANA TEKAN REAKTOR: 2D DENGAN BEBAN INTERNAL PRESSURE. Bejana tekan reaktor (RPV) merupakan pressure boundary dalam reaktor tipe PWR yang berfungsi untuk mengungkung material radioaktif yang dihasilkan pada proses reaksi berantai. Maka dari itu integritas bejana tekan reaktor harus senantiasa terjamin baik reaktor dalam keadaan operasi normal, maupun kecelakaan. Dalam melakukan analisis integritas RPV, khususnya yang berkaitan dengan pecahnya bejana tekan reaktor akibat adanya retak dilakukan analisis secara fracture mechanics. Adanya ketidakpastian input seperti sifat mekanik bahan, lingkungan fisik, dan input pada data, maka dalam melakukan analisis keandalan tidak hanya dilakukan secara deterministik saja. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah melakukan analisis ketidakpastian input pada perhitungan fracture mechanik pada evaluasi keandalan bejana tekan reaktor PWR. Pendekatan untuk karakter random dari kuantitas input menggunakan teori probabilistik. Analisis fracture mechanics dilakukan berdasarkan metode elemen hingga (FEM) menggunakan perangkat lunak MSC MARC. Analisis ketidakpastian input dilakukan berdasarkan probability density function dengan Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) menggunakan python script. Output dari MSC MARC adalah nilai J-integral untuk mendapatkan nilai stress intensity factor pada evaluasi keandalan bejana tekan reactor 2D. Dari hasil perhitungan dapat disimpulkan bahwa SIF probabilistik lebih dulu mencapai nilai batas fracture tougness dibanding SIF deterministik. SIF yang dihasilkan dengan metode probabilistik adalah 105,240 MPa m0,5. Sedangkan SIF metode deterministik adalah 100,876 MPa m0,5. Kata kunci: Analisis ketidakpastian, fracture mechanics, LHS, FEM, bejana tekan reaktor
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Udiyani, Pande Made, and Sri Kuntjoro. "PENGARUH KONDISI ATMOSFERIK TERHADAP PERHITUNGAN PROBABILISTIK DAMPAK RADIOLOGI KECELAKAAN PWR 1000-MWe." JURNAL TEKNOLOGI REAKTOR NUKLIR TRI DASA MEGA 17, no. 3 (October 3, 2015): 149. http://dx.doi.org/10.17146/tdm.2015.17.3.2326.

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ABSTRAK PENGARUH KONDISI ATMOSFERIK TERHADAP PERHITUNGAN PROBABILISTIK DAMPAK RADIOLOGI KECELAKAAN PWR 1000-MWe. Perhitungan dampak kecelakaan radiologi terhadap lepasan produk fisi akibat kecelakaan potensial yang mungkin terjadi di Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) diperlukan secara probabilistik. Mengingat kondisi atmosfer sangat berperan terhadap dispersi radionuklida di lingkungan, dalam penelitian ini akan dianalisis pengaruh kondisi atmosferik terhadap perhitungan probabilistik dari konsekuensi kecelakaan reaktor. Tujuan penelitian adalah melakukan analisis terhadap pengaruh kondisi atmosfer berdasarkan model data input meteorologi terhadap dampak radiologi kecelakaan PWR 1000-MWe yang disimulasikan pada tapak yang mempunyai kondisi meteorologi yang berbeda. Simulasi menggunakan program PC-Cosyma dengan moda perhitungan probabilistik, dengan data input meteorologi yang dieksekusi secara cyclic dan stratified, dan disimulasikan di Tapak Semenanjung Muria dan Pesisir Serang. Data meteorologi diambil setiap jam untuk jangka waktu satu tahun. Hasil perhitungan menunjukkan bahwa frekuensi kumulatif untuk model input yang sama untuk Tapak pesisir Serang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan Semenanjung Muria. Untuk tapak yang sama, frekuensi kumulatif model input cyclic lebih tinggi dibandingkan model stratified. Model cyclic memberikan keleluasan dalam menentukan tingkat ketelitian perhitungan dan tidak membutuhkan data acuan dibandingkan dengan model stratified. Penggunaan model cyclic dan stratified melibatkan jumlah data yang besar dan pengulangan perhitungan akan meningkatkan ketelitian nilai-nilai statistika perhitungan. Kata kunci: dampak kecelakaan, PWR 1000-MWe, probabilistik, atmosferik, PC-Cosyma ABSTRACT THE INFLUENCE OF ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO PROBABILISTIC CALCULATION OF IMPACT OF RADIOLOGY ACCIDENT ON PWR-1000MWe. The calculation of the radiological impact of the fission products releases due to potential accidents that may occur in the PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor) is required in a probabilistic. The atmospheric conditions greatly contribute to the dispersion of radionuclides in the environment, so that in this study will be analyzed the influence of atmospheric conditions on probabilistic calculation of the reactor accidents consequences. The objective of this study is to conduct an analysis of the influence of atmospheric conditions based on meteorological input data models on the radiological consequences of PWR-1000MWe accidents. Simulations using PC-Cosyma code with probabilistic calculations mode, the meteorological data input executed cyclic and stratified, the meteorological input data are executed in the cyclic and stratified, and simulated in Muria Peninsula and Serang Coastal. Meteorological data were taken every hour for the duration of the year. The result showed that the cumulative frequency for the same input models for Serang coastal is higher than the Muria Peninsula. For the same site, cumulative frequency on cyclic input models is higher than stratified models. The cyclic models provide flexibility in determining the level of accuracy of calculations and do not require reference data compared to stratified models. The use of cyclic and stratified models involving large amounts of data and calculation repetition will improve the accuracy of statistical calculation values. Keywords: accident impact, PWR 1000 MWe, probabilistic, atmospheric, PC-Cosyma
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Nuryanti, Nuryanti, Suparman Suparman, Mochamad Nasrullah, Elok S. Amitayani, and Wiku Lulus Widodo. "ANALISIS KELAYAKAN FINANSIAL PROYEK PLTN SMR DI INDONESIA DENGAN MEMPERTIMBANGKAN VARIABEL KETIDAKPASTIAN." Jurnal Pengembangan Energi Nuklir 17, no. 2 (December 29, 2015): 133. http://dx.doi.org/10.17146/jpen.2015.17.2.2609.

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ABSTRAK ANALISIS KELAYAKAN FINANSIAL PROYEK PLTN SMR DI INDONESIA DENGAN MEMPERTIMBANGKAN VARIABEL KETIDAKPASTIAN. SMR merupakan salah satu alternatif mengatasi ketergantungan wilayah Luar Jawa Bali terhadap PLTD. Masalah yang sangat krusial dalam proyek PLTN (termasuk SMR) adalah finansial, terkait dengan sifat padat modal pada proyek ini. Selain itu, pada proyek PLTN SMR juga dimungkinkan terjadinya beberapa variabel ketidakpastian. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan analisis kelayakan finansial proyek PLTN SMR dengan mengakomodasi kemungkinan terjadinya variabel ketidakpastian tersebut. Metodologi yang digunakan adalah analisis probabilistik yang dilakukan dengan teknik Monte Carlo. Teknik ini mensimulasikan keterkaitan antara variabel-variabel ketidakpastian dengan indikator kelayakan finansial proyek. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pada pendekatan probabilistik proyek PLTN SMR dinilai layak pada “most probable value” harga jual listrik sebesar 15 cents/kWh, ditunjukkan dengan rata-rata NPV yang positif (US$ 135.324.004) dan rata-rata kedua nilai IRR yang lebih dari MARR (IRR proyek = 10,65%, IRR Equity = 14,29%, sementara MARR = 10%). Probabilitas ditolaknya proyek PLTN SMR adalah sekitar 20%. Tiga variabel utama yang paling berpengaruh dalam proyek adalah: harga jual listrik, biaya investasi dan tingkat inflasi. Kata kunci: kelayakan finansial, PLTN SMR, variabel ketidakpastian, NPV, IRR ABSTRACT FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS ON SMALL MEDIUM REACTOR NUCLEAR POWER PLANT (SMR NPP) PROJECT IN INDONESIA UNDER UNCERTAINTY. NPP SMR is one alternative to overcome the Outside Java Bali region's dependence on diesel power plant. One crucial issue in the NPP project (including SMR) would be financing, associated with the capital-intensive nature of the project. In addition, the SMR NPP project also be vulnerable in occurrence of some uncertainties. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the financial feasibility of SMR NPP project by accomadating the possibility of the uncertainties. The methodology used is probabilistic analysis which was performed by Monte Carlo technique. This technique simulates the relationship between the uncertainty variables with financial feasibility indicators. The results showed that in probabilistic approach, SMR NPP project is considered feasible on the "most probable value" of electricity selling price of 15 cents/kWh, indicated by positive average value of NPV (US$ 135,324,004) and the average value of both of IRRs are bigger than MARR (IRR project = 10.65%, IRR Equity = 14.29%, while MARR = 10%). The probability of rejection of the SMR project was about 20%. The three main variables that are most influential in the project were: selling price of electricity, invesment cost and inflation rate. Keywords: financial feasibility, SMR NPP, uncertainties, NPV, IRR
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Pavese, Carlotta. "Probabilistic Knowledge in Action." Analysis 80, no. 2 (April 1, 2020): 342–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/analys/anz094.

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Tsujimoto, Kazuki, and Toshiaki Omori. "Switching Probabilistic Slow Feature Analysis for Time Series Data." International Journal of Machine Learning and Computing 10, no. 6 (December 2020): 740–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.18178/ijmlc.2020.10.6.999.

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Arbutina, Dalibor, Aleksandra Vasić-Milovanović, and Uroš Kovačević. "Probabilistic analysis of voltage divider ratios." FME Transactions 47, no. 3 (2019): 624–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/fmet1903624a.

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Irzik, G. "Armstrong's account of probabilistic laws." Analysis 51, no. 4 (October 1, 1991): 214–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/analys/51.4.214.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Analisi probabilistica"

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Bertoni, Vanessa. "Analisi probabilistica e uso di controventi dissipativi in telai in accaio e composti acciaio - calcestruzzo." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Trieste, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10077/4469.

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2009/2010
In questa tesi si indagano vari metodi per la protezione sismica delle strutture a partire da una corretta e realistica valutazione della loro risposta sismica attraverso un approccio probabilistico che tenga conto delle aleatorietà più significative. Se la risposta non soddisfa quanto atteso si può intervenire in vari modi come attraverso l’introduzione di controventi dissipativi. Si analizzano qui due tipologie: i controventi dotati di dispositivi visco elastici e quelli con dispositivi fluido viscosi. Di entrambi si presentano dei metodi di progetto completi con relativi confronti.
XXIII Ciclo
1977
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Bella, Maurizio. "Modellazione numerica di strutture sismoresistenti e analisi probabilistiche di tipo montecarlo." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Trieste, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10077/3460.

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2008/2009
Lo scopo della presente Tesi è lo sviluppo e la messa a punto di una serie di modelli numerici e codici di calcolo atti a modellare il comportamento di strutture sismoresistenti di tipo intelaiato sottoposte ad azione sismica al fine di poter effettuare una valutazione dell'affidabilità strutturale per mezzo di analisi probabilistiche di tipo Montecarlo. In particolare la modellazione dei giunti composti trave-colonna, è stata realizzata definendo un modello meccanico per componenti, atto a descrivere il comportamento del giunto modellato per mezzo di un insieme di elementi rigidi e deformabili, opportunamente connessi tra di loro e a cui sono stati assegnati opportuni modelli istertici. A tale scopo si è proceduto allo sviluppo ed implementazione all’interno del codice di calcolo ABAQUS e ADAPTIC di una serie di modelli isteretici reperiti in letteratura atti alla modellazione numerica delle principali componenti deformative individuabili nei giunti trave colonna e nei dispositivi viscoelastici utilizzati nella realizzazione di controventi dissipativi. Nello sviluppo del modello meccanico per la modellazione del comportamento dei giunti nodi trave colonna composti si è prestata particolare attenzione alla definizione degli elementi che descrivono l’interazione tra la soletta e la colonna. Per agevolare l’esecuzione dell’elevato numero di analisi numeriche richieste dalle analisi probabilistiche di tipo Montecarlo si è inoltre proceduto a sviluppare un pre-processore ed un post-processore in grado di interfacciarsi con i codici di calcolo utilizzati. Nel primo capitolo verrà introdotto il problema della valutazione dell'affidabilità delle strutture. Nel secondo capitolo verranno introdotti i metodi di analisi strutturale con particolare riferimento al metodo dell'analisi probabilistica di tipo montecarlo applicato alla valutazione dell'affidabilità delle strutture. Nel terzo capitolo si esaminerà la problematica della modellazione numerica delle strutture sismoresistenti. Nel quarto capitolo verranno illustrati i modelli numerici sviluppati e implementati nonchè i codici di calcolo sviluppati. Nel quinto capitolo verrà illustrato il processo di validazione dei modelli numerici sviluppati utilizzando i risultati forniti da una serie di indagini sperimentali condotte da vari autori e reperite in letteratura. Infine nel sesto capitolo si procederà alla valutazione dell'affidabilità strutturale di una struttura intelaiata campione. Più precisamente la struttura oggetto dell’indagine è il telaio testato nel European Laboratory for Structural Assessment (ELSA) del Joint Research Center (JRC) di Ispra (Varese). In particolare, per tale struttura verranno determinate le curve di fragilità con riferimento allo spostamento relativo di interpiano (IRDA) assunto come indice di danno strutturale.
XXII Ciclo
1979
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Tagliaferri, Lorenza. "Probabilistic Envelope Curves for Extreme Rainfall Events - Curve Inviluppo Probabilistiche per Precipitazioni Estreme." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2008. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/99/.

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A regional envelope curve (REC) of flood flows summarises the current bound on our experience of extreme floods in a region. RECs are available for most regions of the world. Recent scientific papers introduced a probabilistic interpretation of these curves and formulated an empirical estimator of the recurrence interval T associated with a REC, which, in principle, enables us to use RECs for design purposes in ungauged basins. The main aim of this work is twofold. First, it extends the REC concept to extreme rainstorm events by introducing the Depth-Duration Envelope Curves (DDEC), which are defined as the regional upper bound on all the record rainfall depths at present for various rainfall duration. Second, it adapts the probabilistic interpretation proposed for RECs to DDECs and it assesses the suitability of these curves for estimating the T-year rainfall event associated with a given duration and large T values. Probabilistic DDECs are complementary to regional frequency analysis of rainstorms and their utilization in combination with a suitable rainfall-runoff model can provide useful indications on the magnitude of extreme floods for gauged and ungauged basins. The study focuses on two different national datasets, the peak over threshold (POT) series of rainfall depths with duration 30 min., 1, 3, 9 and 24 hrs. obtained for 700 Austrian raingauges and the Annual Maximum Series (AMS) of rainfall depths with duration spanning from 5 min. to 24 hrs. collected at 220 raingauges located in northern-central Italy. The estimation of the recurrence interval of DDEC requires the quantification of the equivalent number of independent data which, in turn, is a function of the cross-correlation among sequences. While the quantification and modelling of intersite dependence is a straightforward task for AMS series, it may be cumbersome for POT series. This paper proposes a possible approach to address this problem.
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LOPES, VALDIR M. "Incidentes em reatores nucleares de pesquisa examinados por analise de probabilidade deterministica e analise probabilistica de seguranca." reponame:Repositório Institucional do IPEN, 2010. http://repositorio.ipen.br:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/9589.

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Tese (Doutoramento)
IPEN/T
Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP
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Beccuti, Marco. "Modeling and analisys of probabilistic system : Formalism and efficient algorithm." Paris 9, 2008. https://portail.bu.dauphine.fr/fileviewer/index.php?doc=2008PA090060.

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Stanghellini, Andrea. "Analisi costi benefici di un'infrastruttura stradale con approccio probabilistico all'analisi di sensitività e di rischio." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2012. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/4782/.

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L'obiettivo dell'elaborato è definire gli importi delle voci fondamentali in ingresso al metodo di calcolo tramite un'intensa ricerca bibliografica in materia e realizzare un procedimento pratico di riferimento applicato al campo delle infrastrutture stradali. I risultati ottenuti dal calcolo sono stati verificati e confrontati con test di sensitività sulle variabili critiche (Analisi di Sensitività, Analisi di Switch e Analisi di Rischio).
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Asafu-Adjei, Joseph Kwaku. "Probabilistic Methods." VCU Scholars Compass, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10156/1420.

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Sato, Fujio 1944. "Um estudo comparativo da analise de curto-circuito probabilistico em ambientes paralelo e distribuido." [s.n.], 1995. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/260361.

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Orientadores: Alcir Jose Monticelli, Ariovaldo Verandio Garcia
Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Eletrica
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Resumo: Este trabalho apresenta a paralelização de um programa de análise de curto-circuito probabilístico utilizando o método de Monte Cado para sistemas de potência. O programa, originariamente desenvolvido e implementado em computadores seqüenciais, foi codificado para dois ambientes distintos de alto desempenho (paralelo e distribuído), tendo como um dos objetivos a verificação de alguns itens importantes concernentes ao processamento paralelo, tais como: portabilidade, desempenho, escalabilidade e comunicação. As implementações paralela e distribuída desta aplicação foram feitas com dois modelos de programação concorrente: o SP M D (Single Process Multiple Data) e o Mestre/Escravo. Os resultados foram obtidos através de testes em quatro sistemas elétricos da região Sul-Sudeste do Sistema Interligado brasileiro
Abstract: This work presents the parallelization of a power system probabilistic short-circuit analysis program using Monte Gar/o method. A sequential version of the code, originally developed for one-processor machine, was extended to two different high performance computer system architectures (parallel and distributed). The main objective of the research was to study issues such as portability, performance, scalability and communication. Two programming models have been implemented on both architectures: SP MD, (Single Process Multiple Data) and MasterjSlave. The architectures and the models have been evalueted by simulation on four real-life networks of the brazilian South-Southeast interconnected system
Doutorado
Energia Eletrica
Doutor em Engenharia Elétrica
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Alhajj, Chehade Hicham. "Geosynthetic-Reinforced Retaining Walls-Deterministic And Probabilistic Approaches." Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes, 2021. http://www.theses.fr/2021GRALI010.

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L'objectif de cette thèse est de développer, dans le cadre de la mécanique des sols, des méthodes d’analyse de la stabilité interne des murs de soutènement renforcés par géosynthétiques sous chargement sismique. Le travail porte d'abord sur des analyses déterministes, puis est étendu à des analyses probabilistes. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, un modèle déterministe, basé sur le théorème cinématique de l'analyse limite, est proposé pour évaluer le facteur de sécurité d’un mur en sol renforcé ou la résistance nécessaire du renforcement pour stabiliser la structure. Une technique de discrétisation spatiale est utilisée pour générer une surface de rupture rotationnelle, afin de pouvoir considérer des remblais hétérogènes et/ou de représenter le chargement sismique par une approche de type pseudo-dynamique. Les cas de sols secs, non saturés et saturés sont étudiés. La présence de fissures dans le sol est également prise en compte. Ce modèle déterministe permet d’obtenir des résultats rigoureux et est validé par confrontation avec des résultats existants dans la littérature. Dans la deuxième partie du mémoire de thèse, ce modèle déterministe est utilisé dans un cadre probabiliste. Tout d'abord, l’approche en variables aléatoires est utilisée. Les incertitudes considérées concernent les paramètres de résistance au cisaillement du sol, la charge sismique et la résistance des renforcements. L'expansion du chaos polynomial qui consiste à remplacer le modèle déterministe coûteux par un modèle analytique, combinée avec la technique de simulation de Monte Carlo est la méthode fiabiliste considérée pour effectuer l'analyse probabiliste. L'approche en variables aléatoires néglige la variabilité spatiale du sol puisque les propriétés du sol et les autres paramètres modélisés par des variables aléatoires, sont considérés comme constants dans chaque simulation déterministe. Pour cette raison, dans la dernière partie du manuscrit, la variabilité spatiale du sol est considérée en utilisant la théorie des champs aléatoires. La méthode SIR/A-bSPCE, une combinaison entre la technique de réduction dimensionnelle SIR (Sliced Inverse Regression) et une expansion de chaos polynomial adaptative (A-bSPCE), est la méthode fiabiliste considérée pour effectuer l'analyse probabiliste. Le temps de calcul total de l'analyse probabiliste, effectuée à l'aide de la méthode SIR-SPCE, est considérablement réduit par rapport à l'exécution directe des méthode probabilistes classiques. Seuls les paramètres de résistance du sol sont modélisés à l'aide de champs aléatoires, afin de se concentrer sur l'effet de la variabilité spatiale sur les résultats fiabilistes
The aim of this thesis is to assess the seismic internal stability of geosynthetic reinforced soil retaining walls. The work first deals with deterministic analyses and then focus on probabilistic ones. In the first part of this thesis, a deterministic model, based on the upper bound theorem of limit analysis, is proposed for assessing the reinforced soil wall safety factor or the required reinforcement strength to stabilize the structure. A spatial discretization technique is used to generate the rotational failure surface and give the possibility of considering heterogeneous backfills and/or to represent the seismic loading by the pseudo-dynamic approach. The cases of dry, unsaturated and saturated soils are investigated. Additionally, the crack presence in the backfill soils is considered. This deterministic model gives rigorous results and is validated by confrontation with existing results from the literature. Then, in the second part of the thesis, this deterministic model is used in a probabilistic framework. First, the uncertain input parameters are modeled using random variables. The considered uncertainties involve the soil shear strength parameters, seismic loading and reinforcement strength parameters. The Sparse Polynomial Chaos Expansion that consists of replacing the time expensive deterministic model by a meta-model, combined with Monte Carlo Simulations is considered as the reliability method to carry out the probabilistic analysis. Random variables approach neglects the soil spatial variability since the soil properties and the other uncertain input parameters, are considered constant in each deterministic simulation. Therefore, in the last part of the manuscript, the soil spatial variability is considered using the random field theory. The SIR/A-bSPCE method, a combination between the dimension reduction technique, Sliced Inverse Regression (SIR) and an active learning sparse polynomial chaos expansion (A-bSPCE), is implemented to carry out the probabilistic analysis. The total computational time of the probabilistic analysis, performed using SIR-SPCE, is significantly reduced compared to directly running classical probabilistic methods. Only the soil strength parameters are modeled using random fields, in order to focus on the effect of the spatial variability on the reliability results
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Guo, Xiangfeng. "Probabilistic stability analysis of an earth dam using field data." Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020GRALI017.

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Compte tenu de la nature des sols, des incertitudes sur leurs propriétés sont largement rencontrées en géotechnique, en particulier dans le domaine des barrages en terre. Actuellement, il est de plus en plus nécessaire de tenir compte de ces incertitudes pour l'évaluation de la sécurité des grands barrages, notamment dans le cadre des études d’analyse de risques. Cependant, les analyses probabilistes sont complexes et difficiles à mettre en œuvre en raison du nombre limité de mesures, des temps de calcul importants et des limites des méthodes fiabilistes implémentées dans les outils de simulation commerciaux. De plus, la plupart des études précédentes sont basées sur des cas académiques et des données hypothétiques.Ce travail tente de résoudre les problèmes mentionnés ci-dessus en fournissant une étude d'analyse probabiliste pour la stabilité d'un barrage réel en terre en considérant les données in-situ disponibles. Cette étude inclut les éléments principaux suivants: (1) définition de la variabilité des sols en utilisant les mesures disponibles; (2) développement des modèles déterministes; (3-4) analyses probabilistes bu barrage en utilisant des approches en variables aléatoires et en champs aléatoires; (5) analyse 3D de la fiabilité du barrage considéré. Des méthodes fiabilistes avancées (par exemple le métamodèle adaptatif) sont introduites. Cela permet d'estimer précisément la probabilité de rupture du barrage et les valeurs statistiques des facteurs de sécurité avec un temps de calcul significativement réduit. En outre, certaines questions, qui restaient floues dans le domaine de l'analyse probabiliste des barrages, sont discutées (e.g. l’analyse de sensibilité globale des paramètres hydrauliques et géo-mécaniques des sols ; l’étude des performances de cinq méthodes de fiabilité; la simulation/comparaison de trois types de champs aléatoires : générique, conditionnel et non-stationnaire). Le travail présenté, basé sur des données réelles, pourrait être un bon complément aux études probabilistes existantes des ouvrages géotechniques. Les lecteurs pourront également trouver des informations utiles à partir des résultats obtenus afin de mieux résoudre les problèmes pratiques de géo-ingénierie dans un cadre probabiliste
Uncertainties of soil properties are widely encountered in the field of geotechnical engineering especially for earth dams which are constructed with earthen materials. In recent years, there is an increasing need, motivated by the deficiencies of the traditional deterministic approach or guided by the national regulations such as in France, of accounting for these uncertainties for a safe assessment of large dams particularly in the framework of risk analysis studies. However, probabilistic analyses are still complex and not so easy to implement in practice due to the limited number of in-situ measurements, expensive computation efforts and lack of implementation of reliability methods in commercial simulation tools. Moreover, most of the previous studies are based on academic cases and hypothetic data.This work attempts to deal with the aforementioned issues by providing a probabilistic analysis study for the stability of a real earth dam using available field data. This study includes the following main elements: (1) definition of the soil variability by using the available measurements; (2) development of the deterministic models; (3-4) dam probabilistic analyses using the random-variables and random-fields approaches; (5) three-dimensional reliability analysis of the considered dam. Advanced reliability methods, such as the adaptive surrogate modelling, are introduced for the studied earth dam problem. This allows accurately estimating the dam failure probability and the safety factor statistics with a significantly reduced calculation time. In addition, some issues, that remain unknown or unclear in the field of the dam probabilistic analysis, are discussed (e.g. global sensitivity analysis of the soil hydraulic and shear strength parameters; performance survey of five reliability methods; simulation/comparison of three different kinds of random fields: generic (unconditional-stationary), conditional and nonstationary). The presented work, based on real measurements, could be a good supplement to the existing probabilistic studies of geo-structures. Readers will find useful information from the obtained results in order to better solve the practical geotechnical problems in a probabilistic framework
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Books on the topic "Analisi probabilistica"

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Alon, Noga. The probabilistic method. 3rd ed. New York, NY: John Wiley, 2008.

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Alon, Noga. The probabilistic method. New York: Wiley, 1992.

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H, Spencer Joel, ed. The probabilistic method. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2016.

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Alon, Noga. The Probabilistic Method. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 2005.

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Alon, Noga. The probabilistic method. 3rd ed. New York, NY: John Wiley, 2008.

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Alon, Noga. The probabilistic method. 2nd ed. New York: Wiley, 2000.

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Townsend, John S. Review of the probabilistic failure analysis methodology and other probabilistic approaches for application in aerospace structural design. Huntsville, Ala: George C. Marshall Space Flight Center, 1993.

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Probabilistic techniques in analysis. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1995.

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Hynes, Mary Ellen. Probabilistic liquefaction analysis. Washington, DC: Division of Engineering Technology, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1999.

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Hynes, M. E. Probabilistic liquefaction analysis. Washington, D.C: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1990.

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Book chapters on the topic "Analisi probabilistica"

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Reidys, Christian. "Probabilistic Analysis." In Combinatorial Computational Biology of RNA, 143–86. New York, NY: Springer New York, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-76731-4_5.

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Snapp, Robert R. "Probabilistic Analysis." In Encyclopedia of Social Network Analysis and Mining, 1–28. New York, NY: Springer New York, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-7163-9_155-1.

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Maxim, Dorin, Liliana Cucu-Grosjean, and Robert I. Davis. "Probabilistic Analysis." In Handbook of Real-Time Computing, 1–23. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-4585-87-3_9-1.

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Snapp, Robert R. "Probabilistic Analysis." In Encyclopedia of Social Network Analysis and Mining, 1362–88. New York, NY: Springer New York, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-6170-8_155.

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Maxim, Dorin, Liliana Cucu-Grosjean, and Robert I. Davis. "Probabilistic Analysis." In Handbook of Real-Time Computing, 323–46. Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-287-251-7_9.

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Bürgisser, Peter, and Felipe Cucker. "Probabilistic Analysis." In Grundlehren der mathematischen Wissenschaften, 21–58. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-38896-5_2.

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Snapp, Robert R. "Probabilistic Analysis." In Encyclopedia of Social Network Analysis and Mining, 1866–92. New York, NY: Springer New York, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-7131-2_155.

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Huang, Xiaoxia. "Probabilistic Portfolio Selection." In Portfolio Analysis, 11–60. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-11214-0_2.

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Larsen, Rasmus, and Klaus Baggesen Hilger. "Probabilistic Generative Modelling." In Image Analysis, 861–68. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/3-540-45103-x_114.

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Wirsching, P. H. "Probabilistic Fatigue Analysis." In Probabilistic Structural Mechanics Handbook, 146–65. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-1771-9_7.

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Conference papers on the topic "Analisi probabilistica"

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Ramanath, Vinay, and Gene E. Wiggs. "DACE Based Probabilistic Optimization of Mechanical Components." In ASME Turbo Expo 2006: Power for Land, Sea, and Air. ASMEDC, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/gt2006-91024.

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Application of DACE (Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments) methods for probabilistic design space exploration and optimization to the design of a mechanical component is demonstrated. The key part of the paper is focused on the problem formulation and process flow for performing a probabilistic optimization. The authors have shown that for computationally intensive problems, probabilistic optimization can be carried out efficiently within a DACE framework. For problems that are not costly to compute, direct probabilistic optimization can be carried out by the efficient integration of probabilistic analysis and global optimization (such as Genetic Algorithms). The strategy in the paper proves to be especially beneficial for those organizations that are reluctant to move to probabilistic methods and also for the current practitioners of probabilistics. The methodology is illustrated with examples from both simple and computationally intensive engineering problems.
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Parajuli, H. Ram, J. Kiyono, H. Taniguchi, K. Toki, and P. Nath Maskey. "Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Nepal." In RISK ANALYSIS 2010. Southampton, UK: WIT Press, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/risk100351.

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Carvalho, E., J. Cruz, P. Barahona, Theodore E. Simos, George Psihoyios, and Ch Tsitouras. "Probabilistic Reasoning with Continuous Constraints." In Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics. AIP, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.2790083.

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Chang, Kuang-Hua, Xiaoming Yu, and Kyung Choi. "Probabilistic structural stability prediction." In 6th Symposium on Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization. Reston, Virigina: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.2514/6.1996-4064.

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Shin, Youngwon. "Improving Probabilistic Damage Tolerance Analysis for Inspection Optimization: Possibilistic-Probabilistic Approach." In 12th AIAA/ISSMO Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization Conference. Reston, Virigina: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.2514/6.2008-6050.

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Wang, C., W. Gao, and S. Tangaramvong. "Hybrid Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Analysis of Structures with Mixed Uncertainties." In Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM) and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty, Modeling, and Analysis (ISUMA). Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784413609.220.

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Tavakoli, Yashar, H. Haj Seyyed Javadi, and Hossein Erfani. "A Probabilistic Analysis for Greedy Paths." In NUMERICAL ANALYSIS AND APPLIED MATHEMATICS: International Conference on Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics 2008. American Institute of Physics, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.2990983.

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Afshin Abdollahi. "Probabilistic decision diagrams for exact probabilistic analysis." In 2007 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Computer-Aided Design. IEEE, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iccad.2007.4397276.

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Capiez-Lernout, Evange´line, and Christian Soize. "Specifying Manufacturing Tolerances for a Given Amplification Factor: A Nonparametric Probabilistic Methodology." In ASME Turbo Expo 2003, collocated with the 2003 International Joint Power Generation Conference. ASMEDC, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/gt2003-38050.

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It is known that the forced response of mistuned bladed disks can strongly be amplified in comparison with the forced response of the tuned system. The random character of mistuning thus requires the construction of probabilistics models of random uncertainties. This paper presents a nonparametric probabilistic model of random uncertainties which is adapted to the problematics of the blade mistuning. This nonparametric approach allows all the uncertainties yielding mistuning (manufacturing tolerances, dispersion of materials) to be taken into account and includes also the uncertainties due to the modeling errors. This new probabilistic model takes into account both the mistuning of the blade eigenfrequencies and the blade modal shapes. The first point concerns the construction of this nonparametric approach in order to perform a mistuning analysis. The second part is devoted to the inverse problem associated with the manufacturing tolerances. A relationship between the manufacturing tolerances and the level of mistuning is also constructed.
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Bhimanadam, V. R., and F. J. Blom. "Probabilistic PTS Analysis." In ASME 2016 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2016-63112.

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This paper describes the effect of variability of fracture toughness of nuclear pressure vessels during a PTS event. The model used in this paper is based on the NESC-1 experiment. To determine the behavior of the surface breaking defect NRG performed three dimensional finite element calculations and subsequently extended these calculations to the probabilistic calculations. Three-dimensional finite-element model of the cladded cylinder was generated using ANSYS with semi-elliptical surface crack having a crack depth of 75 mm and a crack length of 205 mm. The cylinder specimen was subjected to thermal-shock and centrifugal loading conditions and analyzed with a themo-elastic-plastic material model and subsequently determined the fracture mechanics parameters (J and K) along the elliptical crack front as a function of time and temperature. The determined stress intensity factor K has been compared with the available cleavage fracture toughness (KJC) data with 50% fracture probability which has been obtained from the Master Curve according to BS7910. The comparison has been performed for the locations in the base metal as well as the locations in the heat affected zone. Deterministic analysis has been extended to probabilistic analysis to calculate the failure probability for the crack initiation at the locations in the base metal as well as the locations in the heat affected zone along the crack front by considering probabilistic distributions from Master Curve and FAVOR. Master Curve analysis through the ASME code case N-629 has been applied to the material. Results obtained from these two methods have been compared and also the results are used to compare the inherent safety factors in the deterministic analysis using RTNDT and Master Curve.
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Reports on the topic "Analisi probabilistica"

1

Benson, William E., Jr Berg, and Joseph W. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, January 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada203074.

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Cohen, Paul R. Probabilistic, Dynamic Analysis of Plans. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, March 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada422223.

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Darwiche, Adnan. Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis for Situation Awareness. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, June 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada484629.

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Hansen, Jeffery. Probabilistic Analysis of Time Sensitive Systems. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, October 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada610981.

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Blakely, Scott. Probabilistic Analysis for Reliable Logic Circuits. Portland State University Library, January 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.15760/etd.1859.

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Cheverton, R. D., and T. L. Dickson. HFIR vessel probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), January 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/654200.

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Zio, Enrico, and Nicola Pedroni. Uncertainty characterization in risk analysis for decision-making practice. Fondation pour une culture de sécurité industrielle, May 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.57071/155chr.

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This document provides an overview of sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis. For each phase of the risk analysis process (system modeling, hazard identification, estimation of the probability and consequences of accident sequences, risk evaluation), the authors describe and classify the types of uncertainty that can arise. The document provides: a description of the risk assessment process, as used in hazardous industries such as nuclear power and offshore oil and gas extraction; a classification of sources of uncertainty (both epistemic and aleatory) and a description of techniques for uncertainty representation; a description of the different steps involved in a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), and an analysis of the types of uncertainty that can affect each of these steps; annexes giving an overview of a number of tools used during probabilistic risk assessment, including the HAZID technique, fault trees and event tree analysis.
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Franco, John. Probabilistic Analysis of Algorithms for NP-Complete Problems. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, October 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada179537.

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Blumenthal, Saul, and Prem Goel. Fatigue Crack Propagation: Probabilistic Modeling and Statistical Analysis. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, March 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada195885.

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Seitz, R. PROBABILISTIC SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS WORKSHOP SUMMARY REPORT. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), June 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/933167.

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