Academic literature on the topic 'Analisi dei trade-off'

- The aim of the paper is to focus on privatization of local public utilities (lpu) as a complex and «multidimensional» process. As an example of this issue, we study the case of Eněa spa, a company that manages the lpu of the Western area of Emilia Romagna, by the merging of three multi-utility companies (former city-owned firms). Making use of the Weigel (2003) theoretical framework, «formal» vs «substantial» privatization is discussed. The potential trade-off beetween efficiency and «social» objectives (not only prices, but also quality and security), together with low level of real competition in lpu often anable to carry on with excessively high rents, as a remedy for financial diseases of the (still public) owners.

This paper assesses the performance of MFIs in the MENA region. The purpose of this analysis is to determine the trade-off between financial and social performance in our sample. So how well do Arab MFIs in the MENA region perform? What is the orientation of these institutions? To answer these questions we followed a methodology that consists of two parts. The first step involves the use of the DEA method to assess the performance of the MFIs in our sample. The second step consists of applying PCA on the efficiency scores obtained from the DEA method, in order to determine the orientation of each entity examined.

The present work deals with the study and analysis of the simultaneous optimization of time, cost and quality by using artificial intelligence technique; The approach is based on the use of genetic algorithms implemented in Matlab applied to a case study, the construction of a new University Campus in Cesena, focusing on the external walls of the building itself. The objective is to find a set of optimal solutions, equally valid, for the realization of stratigraphies of the different types of external masonry; It will then be the task of the designer to choose among possible solutions which he believes to be most appropriate, based on the requirements of the project, which may be in terms of quality, cost, time or a combination of two or more of these evaluation parameters. It will thus illustrate how different solutions provided by the program can be used and collected in a three-dimensional graph.

Les travaux de la présente thèse portent sur le recalage de modèles dynamiques d’aubes de turbinecomposites à matrice céramique. Ils s’inscrivent dans le cadre de la quantification d’incertitudes pour la validation de modèles et ont pour objectif de fournir des outils d’aide à la décision pour les ingénieurs desbureaux d’études. En effet, la dispersion importante observée lors des campagnes expérimentales invalidel’utilisation des méthodes de recalage déterministe. Après un état de l’art sur la relation entre les incertitudeset la physique, l’approche de Vérification & Validation a été introduite comme approche permettantd’assurer la crédibilité des modèles numériques. Puis, deux méthodes de recalages stochastiques, permettantde déterminer la distribution statistique des paramètres, ont été comparées sur un cas académique. La priseen compte des incertitudes n’élude pas les potentielles compensations entre paramètres. Par conséquent, desindicateurs ont été développés afin de détecter la présence de ces phénomènes perturbateurs. Ensuite, lathéorie info-gap a été employée en tant que moyen de modéliser ces méconnaissances. Une méthode derecalage stochastique robuste a ainsi été proposée, assurant un compromis entre la fidélité du modèle auxessais et la robustesse aux méconnaissances. Ces outils ont par la suite été appliqués sur un modèle éléments
This work is focused on the stochastic updating of ceramic matrix composite turbine blade model. They arepart of the uncertainty quantification framework for model validation. The aim is to enhance the existing toolused by the industrial decision makers. Indeed, consequent dispersion was measured during the experimentalcampaigns preventing the use of deterministic approaches. The first part of this thesis is dedicated to therelationship between mechanical science and uncertainty. Thus, Verification and Validation was introduced asthe processes by which credibility in numerical models is established. Then two stochastic updatingtechniques, able to handle statistic distribution, were compared through an academic example. Nevertheless,taking into account uncertainties doesn’t remove potential compensating effects between parameters.Therefore, criteria were developed in order to detect these disturbing phenomena. Info-gap theory wasemployed as a mean to model these lack of knowledge. Paired with the stochastic updating method, a robuststochasticapproach has been proposed. Results demonstrate a trade-off relationship between the model’sfidelity and robustness. The developed tools were applied on a ceramic matrix composite turbine blade finiteelement model

Les coûts de la reproduction sont un compromis biologique (trade-off ) fondamental en théorie des histoires de vie. Par ce compromis, le succès, pour un organisme, d’un évènement de reproduction réduit sa survie et sa fertilité futures. Pour les écologues, ce trade-off correspond principalement à un compromis physiologique résultant d’un processus d’allocation ayant lieu à chaque instant et au niveau de chaque individu. Au contraire, en démographie évolutive, il est envisagé comme un trade-off génétique découlant du polymorphisme génotypique d’un gène pléiotropique agissant de manière antagoniste sur la reproduction aux jeunes âges et la fitness aux âges élevés. L’étude des mécanismes des coûts de la reproduction, physiologiques et génétiques, de leur possible cohabitation et de leur effets relatifs, croisés et conjoints est le sujet de cette thèse. Un examen attentif de la définition originelle des coûts de la reproduction par Williams (1966), nous permet de construire un modèle théorique des coûts physiologiques intégrant leurs aspects mécaniques et évolutifs. Cette construction nous permet d’induire l’intensité des coûts de la reproduction selon la position d’un organisme sur trois continuums d’histoire de vie: "slow-fast", "income-capital breeders" et "quantity-quality".A partir de la décomposition, par Stearns (1989b), de l’architecture des contraintes d’histoire de vie en trois parties – le niveau génotypique, la structure intermédiaire et le niveau phénotypique – nous étendons notre modèle conceptuel pour y intégrer à la fois des trade-offs physiologiques et génétiques. Cela nous permet d’inférer les effets de l’environnement, de sa variance et de la stochasticité individuelle sur la détectabilité de chaque famille de coûts. La différence entre coûts physiologiques et génétiques se retrouve également dans leur modélisation mathématique. Il est donc nécessaire de développer de nouveaux modèles permettant d’incorporer coûts physiologiques et génétiques. Nous proposons ensuite une méthode vectorielle de construction d’un tel type de modèle, que nous appelons Matrice de Projection de Population Multitrait (MPPM). Ce dernier peut implémenter chaque type de coût en l’intégrant dans la matrice en tant que trait. Nous étendons ensuite aux MPPMs les techniques d’analyse de sensibilité, standards en démographie évolutive, des modèles à un trait aux MPPMs. Surtout, nous décrivons un nouvel outil d’analyse, pertinent en théorie des histoires de vie et en démographie évolutive: la Trait Level Analysis. Elle consiste à comparer des modèles qui partagent les mêmes propriétés asymptotiques. Ceci est rendu possible par le repliement d’une MPPM selon certains traits, une opération qui réduit le nombre de traits du modèle en moyennant ses transitions selon les abondances ergodiques relatives. Ainsi, la Trait Level Analysis permet de mesurer l’importance évolutive des coûts de la reproduction en comparant des modèles implémentant ces coûts, avec des versions ergodiquement équivalentes de ces modèles mais repliées selon les traits supportant les compromis. Nous utilisons des méthodes, classiques et nouvelles, de calculs des moments de la fitness – gradient de sélection, variance du succès reproducteur, variance environnementale – que nous appliquons aux modèles avec coûts et sans coûts afin de mesurer leurs effets démographiques et évolutifs. Nous présentons les effets conjoints des coûts physiologiques et génétiques sur la distribution par âge des taux vitaux d’une population. Nous montrons également comment les coûts physiologiques influencent les deux composants de la sélection efficace, en aplatissant le gradient de sélection d’un côté et en accroissant la taille efficace de la population de l’autre. Enfin, nous démontrons comment l’effet tampon des coûts sur les variances environnementales et démographiques améliore la résilience d’une population soumise aux coûts physiologiques de la reproduction
Costs of reproduction are pervasive in life history theory. Through this constraint, the reproductive effort of an organism at a given time negatively affects its later survival and fertility. For life historians, they correspond mostly to a physiological trade-off that stems from an allocative process, occurring at each time-step, at the level of the individual. For evolutionary demographers, they are essentially about genetic trade-offs, arising from a genetic variance in a pleiotropic gene acting antagonistically on early-age and late-age fitness components. The study, from an evolutionary demographic standpoint, of these mechanisms and of the relative, cross and joint effects of physiological and genetic costs, is the aim of this thesis. The close examination of Williams (1966)’s original definition of the physiological costs of reproduction led us to produce a theoretical design of their apparatus that accounts for both their mechanistic and evolutionary mechanisms. This design allowed us to make predictions with regards to the strength of costs of reproduction for various positions of organisms on three life-history spectra: slow-fast, income-capital breeders and quality-quantity. From Stearns (1989b)’s tryptic architecture of life history trade-offs –that divides their structure into the genotypic level, the intermediate structure and the phenotypic level – we devised a general framework, which models the possible cohabitation of both physiological and genetic costs. From this, we inferred differing detectability patterns of both types of costs according to the environmental conditions, their variance and individual stochasticity. We could also establish that both costs buffer environmental variations, but with varying time windows of effect. Their dissimilarity emerges also from the differences between mathematical projection models specific to each cost. A new family of evolutionary models is therefore required to implement both physiological and genetic trade-offs. We then describe the vector-based construction method for such a model which we call Multitrait Population Projection Matrix (MPPM) and which allows incorporating both types of costs by embedding them as traits into the matrix. We extend the classical sensitivity analysis techniques of evolutionary demography to MPPMs. Most importantly, we present a new analysis tool for both life history and evolutionary demography: the Trait Level Analysis. It consists in comparing pairs of models that share the same asymptotic properties. Such ergodic equivalent matrices are produced by folding, an operation that consists in reducing the number of traits of a multi-trait model, by averaging transitions for the traits folded upon, whilst still preserving the asymptotic flows. The Trait Level Analysis therefore allows, for example, to measure the evolutionary importance of costs of reproduction by comparing models incorporating them with folded versions of these models from which the costs are absent. Using classical and new methods to compute fitness moments – selection gradient, variance in reproductive success, environmental variance - in models with and without the costs, we can show their effects on various demographic and evolutionary measures. We reveal, in this way, the combined effects of genetic and physiological costs on the vital rates of an age-structured population. We also demonstrate how physiological costs affect both components of effective selection, as they flatten the slope of selection gradients and increase the effective size of a population. Finally, we show how their buffering of environmental and demographic variance confer greater resilience to populations experiencing physiological costs of reproduction

I Servizi Ecosistemici (SE) sono definiti come i benefici che l’uomo ottiene dagli ecosistemi. Gli ecosistemi forestali risultano fondamentali per la produzione di numerosi beni e servizi come prodotti legnosi, qualità dell’acqua e dell’aria, controllo dell’erosione, biodiversità, paesaggio, e molti altri. Conoscere la distribuzione spaziale dei SE, le interazioni che si possono generare (trade-off e sinergie) tra più servizi ed il loro valore economico sono elementi fondamentali da tenere di conto nei processi di pianificazione ambientale e forestale. Gli interventi selvicolturali modificano le caratteristiche delle foreste (composizione specifica, struttura, densità) e di conseguenza la qualità e la quantità dei SE prodotti. Obiettivo del presente lavoro è quello di proporre una metodologia spazialmente esplicita, basata su un approccio multiscala (MiMoSe – Multiscale Mapping of eco System services), per valutare le relazioni tra differenti scenari gestionali e la fornitura dei SE. Lo studio è stato condotto in Regione Molise. Per raggiungere tale obiettivo sono stati utilizzati metodi di analisi spaziale, il modello InVEST e un indice qualitativo, sviluppati adattandoli al contesto forestale mediterraneo per la mappatura e l’analisi dei trade-offs di tre servizi ecosistemici: produzione legnosa, sequestro di carbonio e funzione turistico-ricreativa. Sono stati simulati tre scenari gestionali: il primo basato sulle pratiche selvicolturali normalmente utilizzate nell’area di studio (Scenario A, business-as-usual), un secondo più orientato alla protezione della natura (Scenario B) ed il terzo incentrato sulla produzione legnosa (Scenario C). Gli scenari gestionali sono stati simulati a livello di particella forestale su un intervallo temporale di 20 anni. Il confronto dei tre SE analizzati è stato effettuato standardizzando i valori di produzione legnosa, sequestro di CO2 e dell’indice turistico-ricreativo in un intervallo di valori compreso fra 0 e 1. Lo studio consente di valutare come varia la fornitura di SE applicando pratiche selvicolturali differenziate e di analizzare i trade-off fra i differenti SE, aiutando a definire le modalità di pianificazione e gestionali che consentono di compensare la fornitura dei SE esaminati. L’approccio MiMoSe si presta ad essere utilizzato in contesti forestali simili a quelli considerati in questo studio anche per l’analisi di un numero maggiore di beni e servizi.

Abstract Recent years, financial difficulties led engineers to look for not only the efficiency of the function of a product but also the cost of its development. In order to reduce the time for the development, engineers in each discipline have to develop and improve their objectives collaboratively. Sometimes, they have to cooperate with those who have no knowledge at all for their own disciplines. Collaborative designs have been studied to solve these kinds of the problems, but most of them need some sorts of negotiation among disciplines and assumes that these negotiations will be done successfully. However, in the most cases of real designs, manager of each discipline does not want to give up his or her own objectives to stress on the other objectives. In order to carry out these negotiations smoothly, we need some sort of evaluation criteria which will show efficiency of the product considering the designs by each division and if possible, considering the products of the competitive company, too. In this study, we use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to calculate the efficiency of the design and showed every decision maker the directions of the development of the design. We will call here these kinds of systems as supervisor systems and implemented these systems in computer networks that every decision maker can use conveniently. Through simple numerical examples, we showed the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has recently emerged as a promising technique to play games with very large state spaces. Ataxx is a simple two-player board game with large and deep game tree. In this work, we apply different MCTS algorithms to play the game Ataxx and evaluate its performance against different adversaries (e.g., minimax2). Our analysis highlights one key aspect of MCTS, the trade-off between samples (and accuracy) and chances of winning the game which translates to a trade-off between the delay in making a move and chances of winning.

A Computação Móvel na Borda (MEC) surgiu como uma alternativa para diminuir a latência da rede, fazendo com que o processamento do fluxo de dados ocorresse mais próximo dos usuários mobile. No entanto, a configuração dos servidores pode influenciar diretamente no desempenho da arquitetura MEC. Este artigo propõe um modelo de Rede de Petri Estocástica (SPN) para modelar tal cenário e analisar seu desempenho, considerando diversos parâmetros que podem afetar diretamente no Tempo Médio de Resposta (MRT) e no Nı́vel de Utilização. Apresentamos também análises numéricas com valores de entrada reais que servem como um guia prático para auxiliar administradores de infraestruturas computacionais a adequar suas arquiteturas, encontrando o trade-off entre o MRT e o nı́vel de utilização.

In design processes of machinery, much computer software, for examples CAD/CAE/CAM software, are used. The design processes are aided by this software. The seamless connections of the design processes are necessary for the improvement of the cost benefit of the products. However, sometimes, the conflicts among designs or design processes are occurred by the change of the design at a certain design process and these conflicts are should be noticed and solved immediately. In this research, we have developed the design system including CAD software and the developed system has some functions to find the conflicts of the change of designs and to solve the conflicts. We use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to calculate the efficiency of the design and Satisficing Trade-off Method (STM) to find and solve the conflicts. We have confirmed through some fundamental numerical examples and discussed of the proposed system and method and showed the effectiveness of out study.

This paper focuses on the optimization of the purge cycle for dead-ended anode (DEA) operation of a proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell. Controling the purge interval at given operating conditions can optimize the fuel cell efficiency and hydrogen loss during the purge. For this optimization, a model capturing the liquid water and nitrogen accumulation in the anode and the purge flow behavior is presented. A target range of purge interval is then defined based on the minimal purge time that removes the plug of liquid and nitrogen in the channel end and the maximum purge interval beyond which hydrogen is wasted since hydrogen molar fraction all along the channel has been restored to one. If the purge is sufficiently long that all of the accumulated water and nitrogen are removed then the power output in the subsequent cycle (galvanostatic operation) would be highest, compared with incomplete purges which do not fully restore hydrogen concentration in the anode. Such purge schedule, however, is associated with certain amount of hydrogen loss. Therefore, there is a trade-off between hydrogen loss and power output, and a corresponding purge interval that produces the largest efficiency. The optimum purge intervals for different cycle durations are identified. The calculated DEA efficiencies are compared with flow-through (FT) operation. The analysis and model-based optimization methodology presented in this paper can be used for optimizing DEA operation of PEMFC with minimum experimentation and development time.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.