Academic literature on the topic 'Agricultural prices – European Union countries'
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Journal articles on the topic "Agricultural prices – European Union countries"
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Tluczak, Agnieszka. "Convergence of prices on the pig market in selected European Union countries. Case study." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 68, No. 3 (March 17, 2022): 107–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/342/2021-agricecon.
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Due to its specificity, animal production depends to a lesser extent than plant production on agrometeorological conditions. Interdependence between the prices of animal products and climatic conditions manifests itself primarily through the fodder markets, which determine the profitability of animal breeding and keeping. The process of economic integration should contribute to a decline in price differentiation between European Union (EU) countries. In the case of the pig market, however, it is necessary to bear in mind the pig cycle, which particularly affects the supply of livestock and their prices. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) currently implemented is not adapted to the turbulent global challenges and, underlining the lack of tools adequate to the increasingly frequent and stronger price fluctuations in agricultural markets, consider it necessary to quickly implement a new strategic reformatting of the EU agricultural policy. This study aims to examine the stochastic convergence between prices on the pig market in the EU countries. The research was conducted using, among others, the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the Johansen test. The monthly data from January 2008 (2008M1) to December 2019 (2019M12) were used in this study (Eurostat, Statistical Yearbook of Agriculture). The conducted research indicates the existence of convergence paths between some countries and the group of EU-15 countries.
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Twardowska, Anna. "Konwergencja typu sigma cen gruntów rolnych w państwach Unii Europejskiej." Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW w Warszawie - Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego 19(34), no. 1 (April 1, 2019): 133–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.22630/prs.2019.19.1.12.
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The article raises the issue of dependence between agricultural land prices in the European Union countries. The aim of the article is to provide an answer to the following question: if the level of agricultural land price differentiation in the European Union is diminishing. The analysis covered prices of agricultural land in selected the EU countries in the period 2006 - 2016. The study was based on the occurrence of convergence in three dimensions: throughout the European Union, between the so-called old EU and between the so-called new EU countries. As a result of the conducted analyses, the phenomenon of sigma-convergence of agricultural land prices across the EU was confirmed. It was also found that in the so-called new EU countries and in so-called old EU countries there is no sigma convergence of agricultural land prices.
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Twardowska, Anna. "Wyrównywanie się cen gruntów rolnych w krajach Unii Europejskiej." Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW w Warszawie - Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego 20(35), no. 1 (March 31, 2020): 67–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.22630/prs.2020.20.1.6.
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The paper deals with issues related to the development of agricultural land prices in the countries of the European Union. The hypothesis regarding absolute beta-convergence of agricultural land prices among 20 selected EU countries was verified. The research was carried out for the years 2006 - 2017 using absolute beta convergence models based on spatial data. Obtained test results confirm the occurrence of so-called the effect of catching up on the agricultural land market in the European Union. Thus, in countries where initially a lower level of agricultural land prices were found, there is a faster increase in prices than in countries with initially higher levels.
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Kettunen, L. "Finnish agriculture after the accession into the European union." Acta Agronomica Hungarica 48, no. 1 (May 1, 2000): 113–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/aagr.48.2000.1.13.
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The preconditions for agriculture are in general worse in Finland than in most EU countries. The growing period is shorter and the effective temperature sum is lower. Mainly due to the unfavourable natural conditions the yield level in Finland is low in comparison with the EU countries. Finnish farms are considerably smaller than farms in the most important EU countries. Regional income disparities are a great problem. The Finnish producer prices were a lot higher than in the EU. It was clear that Finnish agriculture would face great difficulties after accession into the EU. The agricultural chapter of the Accession Treaty can be divided into three groups: conditions related to production; agreements on the support system; and the arrangements concerning the transitional period. It was important for Finland to reach an adequate level of support. Finally Finland was allowed to pay nordic support which was a new form in the support system of the EU. This nordic support is paid on the basis of the hectares of agricultural land or heads of animals. The support for the transitional period may be paid for only five years. This support must be regional and degressive. If serious difficulties should appear the EU Commission may authorise Finland to grant national support to facilitate full integration. In 1995, the year of accession, the producer prices went down considerably. Agricultural income has fallen by 36% in 1998 compared to 1994. In spite of this no collapse in production has occurred. In general, agricultural production has kept its preaccession level. Rapid rationalisation and various supports have helped farmers to trust in agriculture.
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Jaroszewska, Joanna, and Robert Pietrzykowski. "Convergence of the Labour Productivity in European Union Agriculture." Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW w Warszawie - Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego 17(32), no. 4 (December 29, 2017): 120–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.22630/prs.2017.17.4.88.
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The objective of the paper is to examine the changes in the level of diversification of the labour productivity in the European Union countries in the years 1998-2015, and then to determine whether there is any convergence of the labour productivity among these countries. The labour productivity has been calculated as a relation of the gross value added at constant prices per one full-time employee. The study used the Economic Accounts for Agriculture (EAA) and the Agricultural Labour Input (ALI). The study covered the European Union countries, broken down by the countries of the „old” EU (EU-15) and the countries admitted to the EU after 2004. In order to determine the changes occurring in these countries, sigma-convergence (σ) and beta-convergence (β) have been used. The study shows that after 2011 there was a process of convergence among the EU countries in terms of the labour productivity in agriculture.
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Stojanović, Ivana. "The Impact of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union on the General Price Level of Countries that Joined in the Period from 2004 to 2007." Economic Themes 57, no. 2 (June 1, 2019): 233–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/ethemes-2019-0014.
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AbstractApplication of The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union implies the existence of a single market (without customs duties on mutual trade), the community’s priority in meeting the needs for agricultural products (protection against imports) and the existence of financial solidarity (joint financing). Joining the European Union for new member states implies the termination of the implementation of the existing national agricultural policy and the the beginning of the implementation of the CAP. Although membership in the European Union implies many advantages, the period after joining this community can be quite economically unstable for some countries. One of the most significant problems is an increase in agricultural product prices and a rise in the general price level (inflation). The above can be confirmed by a simple empirical analysis of the economic indicators of the countries that joined the EU together in the period from 2004 until 2007.
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García-Germán, Sol, Isabel Bardají, and Alberto Garrido. "Do increasing prices affect food deprivation in the European Union?" Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research 16, no. 1 (April 26, 2018): e0103. http://dx.doi.org/10.5424/sjar/2018161-11254.
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The rise of prices of agricultural commodities in global markets during 2007-2012 was followed by increased consumer food prices around the world. More expensive food may have an impact on consumer food access and thus on their welfare, not only in developing countries but also amongst the most vulnerable in developed countries. Using a longitudinal database from the Statistics on Income and Living Conditions and population-averaged models, we tested whether increasing food prices had an impact on household food deprivation in 26 European Union (EU) member states. Results revealed a significant relationship between food deprivation and the consumer food price index and disposable income. Households in the lowest income quintile in the member states recently acceded to the EU were the most vulnerable to food deprivation. Results also showed that low-income households in densely populated areas were more vulnerable to food deprivation. This should be taken into account when evaluating food assistance programmes that focus on the segments of the population most at risk of food deprivation.
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Firleja, Krzysztof, and Sebastian Kubala. "Determinants of variation of potato prices in the European Union." ECONOMIA AGRO-ALIMENTARE, no. 3 (January 2020): 697–707. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/ecag2019-003007.
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Prices are considered to be an only, directly observable market parameter, deciding on a degree of implementation of functions of market entities. The variability is inherent to prices, in accordance to an attribute of functioning on competitive market. Examination of factors affecting the prices is particularly significant on account of occurrence of many potential variables which may impact their levels and still increasing market ties among particular economies. Potato is one of the basic agricultural raw materials in the world. Potato is of high economic value, mainly through the universal usability both by manufacturers as well as consumers. The purpose of the article was to determine of variables characterizing strong dependency on evolving level of potato prices in the EU countries. Attempts of building a model aimed at depicting potato prices evolution in the European Union countries under an influence of particular variables was performed using panel data models. Conducted analyses allowed to indicate the occurrence of regional variation of potato prices in particular European Union countries. It was also shown that essential impact on a potato prices level is potato production volume, value of gross domestic product and potato import volumes.
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Smędzik-Ambroży, Katarzyna, Martyna Rutkowska, and Hakan Kirbaş. "PRODUCTIVITY OF THE POLISH AGRICULTURAL SECTOR COMPARED TO EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER STATES IN 2004-2017 BASED ON FADN FARMS." Annals of the Polish Association of Agricultural and Agribusiness Economists XXI, no. 3 (August 13, 2019): 422–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0013.3447.
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The aim of the study was to assess the productivity of the Polish agricultural sector compared to other EU countries in the long-term, encompassing the years 2004-2017. The time range of analyzes covered the years 2004-2017, spatial range of analyzes concerned individual EU countries, and the subjective scope of research included representative farms from these countries. Data was from EUFADN. Therefore, a comparative analysis of synthetic indicators of agricultural productivity in 2004-2006, 2007-2010, 2011-2014 and 2015-2017 was performed. It has been proven that agriculture in Poland, compared to other EU countries, was characterized in the years 2004-2017, almost by the lowest level of resource productivity. The sources of competitiveness of agriculture in Poland in relation to other EU countries result from price differences and not from differences in the productivity of land, capital and labor. The Polish agricultural sector, in the last decade, showed almost the lowest productivity of resources in relation to other EU countries. This was proven by excluding the impact of prices on the differences in resource productivity between EU countries. The increase in the productivity of Polish agriculture is therefore a necessary condition to prevent a progressive decrease in the competitiveness of this sector.
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Utnik-Banaś, Katarzyna, Tomasz Schwarz, Elzbieta Jadwiga Szymanska, Pawel Mieczyslaw Bartlewski, and Łukasz Satoła. "Scrutinizing Pork Price Volatility in the European Union over the Last Decade." Animals 12, no. 1 (January 1, 2022): 100. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ani12010100.
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The aim of this study was to analyze the factors that can influence pork prices, particularly the effects of various types of fluctuations on the volatility of pork prices in the European Union as a whole market and individual EU countries. The research material consisted of monthly time series of pork prices collected from 2009 to 2020. These data originated from the Integrated System of Agricultural Information coordinated by the Polish Ministry of Agriculture. Information on global pork production volumes is from the Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT) database. Time series of prices were described by the multiplicative model, and seasonal breakdown was performed using the Census X-11 method. The separation of the cyclical component of the trend was performed using the Hodrick–Prescott filter. In 2019, pork production in the European Union totaled 23,954 thousand tonnes, which accounted for 21.8% of global pork production. The largest producers were Germany, Spain, and France, supplying more than half of the pork to the entire European Union market. Pork prices in the EU, averaged over the 2009–2020 period were Euro (EUR) 154.63/100 kg. The highest prices for pork were recorded in Malta, Cyprus, Bulgaria, and Greece, whereas the lowest prices in Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, and France. The breakdown of the time series for pork prices confirmed that, in the period from 2009 to 2020, pork prices exhibited considerable fluctuations of both a long-term and medium-term nature as well as short-term seasonal and irregular fluctuations. Prices were higher than average in summer (with a peak in June–August) and lower in winter (January–March). Overall, the proportions of different types of changes in pork prices were as follows: random changes—7.9%, seasonal changes—36.6%, and cyclical changes—55.5%.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Agricultural prices – European Union countries"
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Ruano, Lorena. "Institutions, the Common Agricultural Policy, and the European Community's enlargement to Spain, 1977-1986." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2001. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:373a1b83-4ec7-4e81-b270-898729a5bafc.
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Why did EC enlargement negotiations with Spain take so long? This thesis argues that agricultural issues dominated negotiations despite the political and strategic aims of stabilizing Western Europe's southern flank that underpinned the raison d'être of this enlargement. The framework of Historical New Institutionalism is used to argue that several 'biases' operating at three levels account for the length and nature of these negotiations. At the first level, the 'bilateral' format of the negotiation procedure between Spain and the EC favoured existing EC members and protected the acquis communautaire. The Community's negotiating positions, as bargains in themselves, tended to be inflexible, and reduced Spain's input in the discussions and in the agenda-setting process. At the EC level, the CAP exhibited an unusual capacity to withstand the changes required by enlargement. This was because the EC's decisionmaking structure was fragmented into sectors and levels which allowed a closely knit 'policy community' to run the CAP in a way that was relatively insulated from other issue-areas. Change in the CAP occurred to cope with enlargement, but in a path-dependent way, passing the cost of adaptation on to Spain. At the national level, member states' so-called national interests with regard to enlargement were mixed, with no clear priority, and conflicting sectoral views. This resulted from the mechanisms of interest intermediation and inter-departmental co-ordination, which shaped the formulation and representation of national views in Brussels. Spain's accession was finally made possible when new redistributive policies for the Mediterranean and fresh budgetary resources were agreed. These were approved as part the wider package-deals surrounding the Single Market project and the Single European Act. HNI provides a new and persuasive framework with which to understand the difficulties of institutional change associated with enlargement negotiations.
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Huang, Zhi Feng. "Study of European Union Common Agricultural Policy : France agricultural policy anaysis." Thesis, University of Macau, 2008. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b2555543.
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Münch, Wolfgang. "Effects of EU enlargement to the Central European countries on agricultural markets /." Frankfurt am Main [u.a.] : Lang, 2002. http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/fy037/2003054521.html.
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Wang, Yan Chao. "EU's agricultural support policy and its revelation on China's agricultural policy." Thesis, University of Macau, 2011. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b2555588.
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Woolgar, Chris. "European Union Dairy Policy and the Least Developed Countries : Case Study - Africa." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Sektionen för planering och mediedesign, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-1113.
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Agricultural policy within the European Union (EU) is but one of the founding pillars upon which unification was developed. Negotiated out of a post-war Europe, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) emphasized the protection of the domestic market, through government subsidies and payment programmes, artificially raising the price of domestic products while restricting access for the foreign agricultural producers. The objective of this paper is to explore the link between the agricultural decisions made by the EU and the effects on citizens in the Least Developed Countries (LDC). To develop a comprehensive understanding of the issue at hand a review of the existing literature will be necessary, as well as an analysis of the available quantitative data. The findings revealed that the CAP is but one factor that impacts development of agriculture in LDC’s, many other factors, such as international and bi-lateral trade agreements, government institutions, and political lobbying also influence the outcome.
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Pishbahar, Esmaeil. "The effects of European Union trade policies on agricultural imports from developing and poor countries." Rennes 1, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008REN1G002.
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L'Union européenne (UE) est le plus grand marché agricole. La plupart des sources d'importation de l' UE sont les pays en développement (PED) et les pays les moins avancés (PMA). Les exportations agricoles des PMA jouent un rôle important dans leur développement. Le commerce international peut agir en tant que moteur de croissance et de réduction de pauvreté. Un accès au marché accru pour les PMA leur fournirait les moyens de favoriser le développement. Les accords commerciaux préférentiels jouent un rôle central pour de nombreux PED. Certains des régimes préférentiels de l'UE accordent un libre accès au marché aux PMA (comme TSA-Tout sauf les armes). Néanmoins, l'UE permettra un accès aux importations de riz exempt de droits et de quotas pour les PMA à partir de septembre 2009. Par conséquent, cette recherche se concentre sur la relation entre les accords commerciaux de l'UE et les modifications d'accès au marché des bénéficiaires. Cette thèse se compose de quatre papiers. D'abord, les effets des accords commerciaux de l'UE sont étudiés à partir d'un modèle de gravité et de données agrégées. Les résultats indiquent qu'un grand nombre d'accords commerciaux soutiennent les exportations agricoles des PED sur le marché européen. Néanmoins, un des accords unilatéraux les plus importants (TSA) a un effet négatif sur les exportations agricoles vers l'UE. Ensuite, les modifications d'accès au marché pour un produit particulier (ici le riz) sont considérées avec un modèle d'Armington. Nos résultats empiriques prouvent que, lorsque le modèle d'Armington est estimé en ignorant les droits de douane et le paramètre non-homothétique, les résultats peuvent être biaisés et de validité incertaine. En outre, les simulations démontrent que malgré une grande différence entre les taxes à l'importation du Suriname et ceux des autres pays, sa part de marché ne changerait pas considérablement. Cela démontre la faible capacité des PMA (tels que le Surinam) à concurrencer les pays développés (tels que les USA)The European Union (EU) is the biggest agricultural market. Most of EU's import sources are developing countries and least developed contries 'LDCs). The agricultural exports of LDCs have an important role in development of these countries. The international trade can act as an engine of growth and poverty reduction. Enhanced market access for the LDCs would provide them the means to harness trade for development and poverty reduction. Preferential trade agreements play a central role in forming trade opportunies for numerous developing countries. The EU supplies numerous trading agreements. Some of EU's preferential regimes grant free-duty market access for the LDCs (like EBA-Everything But Arms). Nevertheless, the Eu will allow duty-free and quota-free access to imports of rice originating from the LDCs from September 2009 within the framework of EBA. Hence, this research focuses on the relationship between EU's trading agreements and changes in the market access of beneficiaries. This research consists of four papers. First, the effects of the EU's trading agreements are studied with a gravity model and aggregated data. The results indicate that a large number of Eu's RTAs support the agricultural exports of developing countries to the Eu market. Nevertheless, one of the most important and unilateral RTAs (EBA) has the negative effect over agricultural exports to Eu. Second, the changes of market access for a special product (here rice) are considered with an Armington model and disaggregated data. Our empirical results show that when the Armington model is estimated ignoring the tariff and the non-homothetic parameter, results may be biased and of uncertain validity. In addition, the simulation findings demonstrate that in spite of a large difference between import tariffs rates of Surname and other countries, its market share would not change greatly. It shows the weak capacity of LDCs (such as Surinam) to compete with developed countries (such as the US)
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Grewlich, Jerome. "International trade in wine and geographical indications : common interests between the EU and South Africa." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/49995.
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Thesis (MScAgric)--Stellenbosch University, 2004.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: European-South African trade relations concerrnng wine and spirits are characterized by various opportunities and, at the same time, a range of conflicts. The latter notably relates to the dispute over geographical indications and designations of origin. Considering this confusing amalgamation of discord and harmony, it is the purpose of this study, entitled "International Trade in Wine and Geographical Indications - Common Interests between the EU and South Africa", to understand the rationale for trade in wine from both sides of the coin. Moreover, this research assesses possible multilateral and bilateral solutions for dealing with trade frictions between the EU and South Africa and identifies common interests with a view to establish a lasting foundation for blossoming trade in wine and sustained growth. The underlying methodology is a qualitative interpretative approach and bases on insights into modern marketing and international management theory. On this basis the "objective" interests of the EU and South Africa in trade in wine are analysed in order to assess the coming into existence of the Trade, Development and Cooperation Agreement as well as the Wine and Spirits Agreement. Pivot of these trade negotiations is the dispute on geographical indications, which is scrutinized by looking into relevant chapters of the WTO and its TR.IPS Agreement. With regards to the Wine and Spirits Agreement it is salient to ask whether it is economically and politically reasonable for South Africa to accept a financial package from the EU to secure the 'voluntary' phasing out of a number of trademarks and geographical indications. The study concludes with an outlook regarding the globalisation of the world's wine market, potential future investment flows between the EU and South Africa and the need for an effective marketing strategy in order to become or remain global player in an increasing competitiveness caused by globalisation.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Europese en Suid-Afrikaanse handelsverhoudinge in wyn en spiritualieë word gekenmerk deur verskeie geleenthede en terselfdertyd 'n reeks konflikte. Laasgenoemde hou merkbaar verband met die twis oor geografiese indikatore en aanwysings van oorsprong. Gegewe hierdie verwarrende tweedrag en harmonie, is die doel van hierdie studie, getiteld "Internasionale Handel in Wyn en Geografiese Aanwysings - Gemeenskaplike belange tussen die EU en Suid-Afrika", om die 'rationale' agter die wynhandel van twee kante te beskou. Verder ondersoek hierdie navorsing moontlike multi- en bilaterale oplossings vir die handelswrywing tussen die EU en Suid-Afrika en identifiseer gemeenskaplike belange met die doelom 'n fondament te bou vir volhoubare groei in die wynhandel. Die onderliggende metodologie is 'n kwalitatiewe verklarende benadering, gebaseer op insigte uit moderne bemarkings- en bestuursteorie. Op hierdie vlak word die 'objektiewe' belange van die EU en Suid-Afrika in die wynhandel ontleed om gevolgtrekkings oor die Handels-, Ontwikkelings- en Samewerkingsooreenkoms en die Wyn- en Spiritualieë- Ooreenkoms te maak. Onderliggend aan hierdie onderhandelinge is die twis oor geografiese aanwysings, wat noukeurig ondersoek is deur relevante hoofstukke van die WHO Ooreenkoms en sy TRIPS-komponent te raadpleeg. Met verwysing na die Wyn- en Spiritualieë- Ooreenkoms is dit voor die hand liggend om te vra of dit ekonomies en polities verstandig vir Suid-Afrika is om 'n finansiële pakket van die EU te aanvaar in ruil vir die vrywillige uitfasering van 'n aantal handelsmerke en geografiese aanwysings. Die studie sluit af met '11" blik op globalisering van die wêreld se wynmarkte, die potensiële toekomstige vloei van beleggings tussen die EU en Suid-Afrika, en die behoefte aan 'n effektiewe bemarkingsstrategie om 'n globale speler te word.
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Corbett, Johannes Kruger. "The EU-SA free trade agreement : implications for selected agricultural products." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/51976.
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Thesis (MBA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2000.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: As the Trade Development and Co-operation Agreement (TDCA) creates competitive challenges and opportunities, labour and capital will seek the highest returns, dri ving out less efficient performances while bolstering more efficient enterprises and industries. This dynamic process of adjustments will continue throughout the implementation of this agreement. The South African government sees the agreement with the European Union as a step towards restructuring the country's economy and making it part of the rapidly changing world economy. This policy view of the South African government will result in those sectors of the economy that are not internationally competitive, receiving no support from government. Consequently these sectors will decrease in time. Of the three agricultural profiles studied, fresh fruit (deciduous fruit) will benefit the most from the TDCA. The most obvious effect the agreement will have on the sector is the saving on customs duties payable on exports to the EU. An estimate on 1997 trade figures revealed that in the short term the deciduous fruit industry will save approximately RI00 million. Over the implementation period of 10 years, the industry will save about Rl billion. After that, savings amounting to approximately R125 million per annum should be possible. The canned fruit sector is an export-driven industry that exports about 90 per cent of its products, 50 per cent of which is exported to the EU. The export tariffs to the EU are very high. As non-EU member, South Africa is the biggest provider of canned fruit to the EU. Some analyses revealed that the total savings in tariffs for the first year of implementation will be R25 million. The industry stands to save approximately R100 million over the implementation period. At the EU's request, South Africa agreed to negotiate a separate Wine and Spirits Agreement. The EU believes that South Africa's continued use of certain "geographical indications" or terms is in breach of Article 23 of the Trade-related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) agreement. The quotas granted by the EU on wine and sparkling wine cover 79 per cent of South African exports to the EU. South Africa granted the EU a 0.26 million litre quota for sparkling wine and a 1 million-litre quota for bottled wine. SA will phase out the use of the terms "port", "sherry", "grappa", ouzo", "korn" , "jagertee" and "pacharan" over agreed time periods. The issue will be taken to the WTO for a ruling in this regard. The EU has agreed to grant SA a duty-free tariff quota for wine but has suspended the tariff quota until the Wine and Spirits agreement has been signed. The EU will also provide financial assistance of 15 million ECU to help restructure the SA wine and spirits sector. The South African agricultural industry should take note of the constantly changing international marketing environment. The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) signed with the European Union opens up new markets and enhances existing ones that must be exploited. It is imperative that every role player should evaluate the level of competitiveness of his or her enterprise. Thus the message is very clear: Agricultural production with an international trading view is the only sustainable road to follow.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Soos die Handel, Ontwikkelings en Samewerkingsooreenkoms kompeterende geleenthede en uitdagings skep, sal arbeid en kapitaal verskuif na die hoogste opbrengste beskikbaar. In hierdie proses sal daar wegbeweeg word van onvoldoende prestasies en sal effektiewe ondememings en industriee floreer. Hierdie dinarniese proses van herstruktuering sal voortduur regdeur die implementeringsperiode van hierdie handelsooreenkoms. Die Suid Afrikaanse regering beskou die ooreenkoms met die Europese Unie as 'n belangrike stap in die proses om die land se ekonomie te herstrukltureer en so deel te maak van die vinnig veranderende wereld ekonomie. Hierdie regerings beleid sal daartoe lei dat sektore wat nie intemasionaal mededingend is nie, geen ondersteuning vanaf die regering sal ontvang nie. Met tyd sal hierdie sektore verdwyn. Van die drie landbousektore wat bestudeer is, sal vars vrugte (sagte vrugte) die meeste voordeel trek uit die ooreenkoms. Die besparing van aksynsbelasting op die uitvoere na die Europese Unie is die mees kenmerkendste voordeel vir die sektor. 'n Beraming gebaseer op 1997 handels syfers toon 'n jaarlikse besparing van plus minus R100 miljoen. Deur die hele implementeringsperiode, sal die besparing plus minus Rl biljoen beloop. Na afloop van die implementeringsperiode, sal jaarlikse besparing van plus minus R125 miljoen moontlik wees. Die inmaak vrugte sektor is 'n uitvoer gedrewe industrie wat gemiddeld 90 persent van hul prod uk uitvoer. Van hierdie uitvoere is 50 persent bestem vir die Europese Unie. Die uitvoertariewe na die Europese Unie is baie hoog. As nie-lidland, is Suid Afrika die grootste verskaffer van geblikte vrugte aan die Europese Unie. Beramings voorsien dat die sektor 'n totale besparing vir die eerste jaar van implemetering van plus minus R25 miljoen kan beloop. Die industrie kan soveel as R100 rniljoen oor die implementeringsperiode bespaar. Op die Europese Unie se versoek, het Suid Afrika ingestem om 'n afsonderlike Wyn en Spiritualie ooreenkoms te onderhandel. Die Europese Unie beweer dat Suid Afrika se gebruik van sekere "geografiese aanduidings" of terme, In verbreking is van Artikel 23 van die Handelsverwante Aspekte van die Intellektuele Eiendomsregte Ooreenkoms. Wyn en vonkelwyn kwotas wat deur die Europese Unie aan Suid Afrika toegestaan is, beloop 79 persent van die uitvoere na die Europese Unie. Suid Afrika het die Europese Unie In kwota van 0.26 miljoen liter vir vonkelwyn en 1 miljoen kwota vir gebottelde wyn toegestaan. Voorts sal Suid Afrika die terme "port", "sherry", "grappa", "ouzo", "kom" , "jagertee" and "pacharan" met die ooreengekome peri odes uitfaseer. Die aspek sal egter na die WHO geneem word vir In finale beslissing. Die Europese Unie het ooreengekom om aan Suid Afrika In tarief vrye kwota vir wyn toe te staan, maar het dit opgehef tot tyd en wyl die Wyn en Spiritualie ooreenkoms onderteken is. Die Europese Unie sal ook finansiele ondersteuning van 15 miljoen ECU skenk om die Suid Afrikaanse Wyn en Spiritualiee industrie te help hestruktureer. Suid Afrikaanse Landbou sal notisie moet neem van die konstante verandering in die intemasionale bemarkingsomgewing. Die Vrye Handelsooreenkoms wat geteken is met die Europese Unie, open nuwe markte en sal bestaande markte bevorder. Hierdie geleenthede moet benut word. Dit is baie belangrik dat elke rolspeler sy vlak van kompeterende vermoe moet evalueer, om so sy eie siening oor die ooreenkoms te kan uitspreek. Hieruit is die boodskap dus baie duidelik: Landbou produksie met In intemasionale handels uitkyk, is die enigste volhoubare pad om te volg.
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Lombana, Jahir. "Competitiveness and trade policy problems in agricultural exports a perspective of producing, exporting countries in the case of banana trade to the European Union /." Saarbrücken VDM, Müller, 2006. http://deposit.d-nb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?id=2918474&prov=M&dok_var=1&dok_ext=htm.
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Chen, Natalie. "Essays in empirical international economics: the case of european product and labour market integration." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/211601.
Full textBooks on the topic "Agricultural prices – European Union countries"
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Dvořák, Tomáš. European Union enlargement and equity markets in accession countries. Washington, D.C: International Monetary Fund, Monetary and Financial Systems Dept., 2005.
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Adjustment of Agricultural Policies of Central European Countries on the Way to the European Union (Conference) (1996 Szirák, Hungary). Agricultural accession of the Central and Eastern European countries to the European Union. Budapest: Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Science, 1995.
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Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, ed. Evaluation of agricultural policy reforms in the European Union. Paris: OECD, 2011.
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Tarditi, S. Agricultural strategies for the enlargement of the European Union to central and eastern European countries. [Brussels]: European Commission, DGI, 1994.
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Usher, J. A. EC agricultural law. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.
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Effects of EU enlargement to the Central European countries on agricultural markets. Frankfurt am Main: Peter Lang, 2003.
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F, Beard N., and Jordan Kate, eds. Implications for developing countries of likely reform of the common agricultural policy of the European Union. London: Commonwealth Secretariat, 1999.
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1958-, Dabbert Stephan, ed. The economics of landscape and wildlife conservation. Oxon: CAB International, 1998.
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David, Blandford, and Hill Berkeley, eds. Policy reform and adjustment in the agricultural sectors of developed countries. Oxfordshire, UK: CABI Pub., 2005.
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Floor, Brouwer, and Lowe Philip, eds. CAP regimes and the European countryside: Prospects for integration between agricultural, regional and environmental policies. Wallingford, UK: CABI Pub., 2000.
Find full textBook chapters on the topic "Agricultural prices – European Union countries"
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Piccinini, Antonio, and Margaret Loseby. "The European Union, Developing Countries and Central and Eastern European Countries." In Agricultural Policies in Europe and the USA, 80–93. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230597150_7.
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Telatar, M. Erdinç, and Nermin Yaşar. "The Convergence of Electricity Prices for European Union Countries." In Regulations in the Energy Industry, 55–63. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-32296-0_4.
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Martinho, Vítor João Pereira Domingues. "The Economic, Social, and Environmental Determinants for the Agricultural Output in Some European Union Countries." In The Agricultural Economics of the 21st Century, 49–70. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09471-7_5.
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Martinho, Vítor João Pereira Domingues. "Cross-section and Spatial Approaches for the Agricultural Contexts in the 27 Countries of the European Union." In The Agricultural Economics of the 21st Century, 19–34. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09471-7_3.
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Castaneda, Dora. "Technical Regulations in Agricultural Trade Agreements between the European Union and Central American Countries." In Managing Economies, Trade and International Business, 218–43. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230274013_12.
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Kiewnick, Sebastian. "The stem nematode Ditylenchus dipsaci in sugar beet: a species of extremes." In Integrated nematode management: state-of-the-art and visions for the future, 388–93. Wallingford: CABI, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781789247541.0054.
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Abstract The stem nematode Ditylenchus dipsaci is a migratory endoparasitic nematode of worldwide importance. D. dipsaci was long considered as a species with up to 30 different host races with specific host crop spectra. However, more recent phylogenetic studies showed that isolates from agricultural plant species, including sugar beet, should be considered as D. dipsaci sensu stricto. It is regulated as a quarantine species in many countries and classified as a regulated non-quarantine pest in the European Union to avoid further spread of this nematode by infested seeds or planting material. This chapter discusses the economic importance, distribution, host range, damage symptoms, biology and life cycle, interactions with other nematodes and pathogens, recommended integrated nematode management, and management optimization of D. dipsaci. Future research requirements and future developments are also mentioned.
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Quendler, Erika, Christina Mayer, and Karl Michael Ortner. "Economic Transformation of Austrian Agriculture Since EU Accession." In Environmental and Agricultural Informatics, 875–905. IGI Global, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-9621-9.ch039.
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After joining the European Union (EU) in 1995 Austria adopted the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This chapter reviews the changes in agricultural production and the economic situation of agriculture since the accession to the EU. The analysis is primarily based on macro-economic data from the Economic Accounts for Agriculture (EAA) over the period between 1995 and 2014. Select examples identify the developments applicable for Austria – also in comparison to other EU countries and groups of countries as well as to Switzerland. Expectations and forecasts regarding the consequences of integration, e.g. changes in the price levels, have been more or less fulfilled but there is a need for further research on the development of regions and on special issues such as the resilience of Austrian agriculture.
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Quendler, Erika, Christina Mayer, and Karl Michael Ortner. "Economic Transformation of Austrian Agriculture since EU Accession." In Global Perspectives on Trade Integration and Economies in Transition, 299–329. IGI Global, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-0451-1.ch015.
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After joining the European Union (EU) in 1995 Austria adopted the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This chapter reviews the changes in agricultural production and the economic situation of agriculture since the accession to the EU. The analysis is primarily based on macro-economic data from the Economic Accounts for Agriculture (EAA) over the period between 1995 and 2014. Select examples identify the developments applicable for Austria – also in comparison to other EU countries and groups of countries as well as to Switzerland. Expectations and forecasts regarding the consequences of integration, e.g. changes in the price levels, have been more or less fulfilled but there is a need for further research on the development of regions and on special issues such as the resilience of Austrian agriculture.
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"European Union." In Agricultural Policies in OECD Countries, 64–67. OECD, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_oecd-2008-6-en.
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"European Union." In Agricultural Policies in OECD Countries 2005, 125–80. OECD, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_oecd-2005-8-en.
Full textConference papers on the topic "Agricultural prices – European Union countries"
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DRĂCEA, Raluca, and Laura CIOBANU. "THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR TO ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ROMANIA." In Competitiveness of Agro-Food and Environmental Economy. Editura ASE, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.24818/cafee/2019/8/08.
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Although agriculture is one of the main economic sectors of Romania, its contribution to GDP has constantly decreased over the last 28 years, from 23.00% in 1989 to 4.37% in 2017. This phenomenon is explained by the fact that Romania’s economy past from being an economy based on an agricultural structure to one based on services. Even though the contribution of agriculture to GDP formation is declining, Romania still has the largest share of the agricultural sector in the GDP structure from all the countries of the European Union – about 3 times higher than the European average, and also the highest share of agricultural land in the total land area. These aspects show that within the member countries of the European Union, Romania is the country most dependent on agriculture, with the largest number of people involved in agriculture and with the largest share of agricultural areas in total. In this context, the paper analyzes the impact of the agricultural sector on Romania’s economic growth, between 2000-2017. The empirical analysis is based on three independent variables (agricultural production, public expenditure on agriculture and direct investment in agriculture) and one dependent variable (GDP at constant prices). The data panel consists of information provided by the NIS (National Institute of Statistics), and the data are analyzed using multiple regression.
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Zagorova, Krassimira. "Analysis of the Mechanism of the Common Organization of the Markets for Agricultural Products in the European Union." In 8th International Scientific Conference ERAZ - Knowledge Based Sustainable Development. Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.31410/eraz.2022.1.
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The Common Organization of the Market for Agricultural Products in the European Union is part of the common agricultural policy, which ensures both stable and predictable markets and resilient purchase prices, which in turn safeguards farmers’ stable earnings and provides constant supply of quality food to consumers. The aim of this study is to analyze the applicability and adaptability of the mechanism of the common organization of markets in the EU, including: its internal aspect, mainly related to interventions in the market for agricultural products, and its external aspect related to the trade with third countries, import and export licenses, refund of part of costs associated with exporting agricultural products produced in the Community, etc. The Common Organization of Markets, as a basis for implementing the EU Common Agricultural Policy, operates within a financial framework periodically updated by the European Commission in order to adequately implement the principle of subsidiarity, allowing EU Member States to play a key role in terms of interventions in the agricultural sector.
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PRANDECKI, Konrad, and Edyta GAJOS. "THE SHARE OF AGRICULTURE IN GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES – VALUATION." In RURAL DEVELOPMENT. Aleksandras Stulginskis University, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.15544/rd.2017.255.
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Reducing greenhouse gases emissions is one of the major environmental challenges of the modern world. The European Union (EU) has set itself ambitious reduction targets. Proper monitoring of emissions and its valuation is necessary to achieve this goal. In addition, valuation (in monetary terms) will help to raise awareness of the climate change costs among society. The aim of this article is to present international comparisons within the EU covering the monitoring and valuation of aggregate emissions of selected greenhouse gases in general and in agriculture. The study uses Eurostat data for the years 2007-2015. The evaluation was based on the average annual price of carbon dioxide allowances under the European Union Emissions Trading System. Leipzig stock market data were used to determine the price. The study compares the total greenhouse gas emissions and its value in different EU countries. These results show that the largest emitters in the EU are Germany, United Kingdom, France. A comparison of per capita and per GDP emissions results in an almost reversal of this order. The share of agriculture in greenhouse gas emissions was 11% in 2015 and ranged between countries from 3% (Malta) do 32% (Ireland). The results show also that the decline in value is greater than the decrease in emissions. This is due to the dramatic change in the price of allowances. The decrease in quantity of agricultural emission was 0,5%, whilst the decrease in value was 55,5% between years 2008 and 2015.
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Durgun, Özlem. "Herbal Production in the Turkish Agricultural Sector." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c03.00573.
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Agricultural production depends on natural conditions. All the countries try to stabilize and increase the food supply for communities. For this reason, the agriculture sector, support policies analyzed and conducted well. In agricultural support policies, there are different objectives like raising farm incomes, production and productivity. In Turkey, agricultural is very important. Because certain part of the population of Turkey live in rural areas. There are agricultural activities. They support those living in urban areas, especially in times of crisis. People living in rural areas, as well as food and labor force ready for those living in urban areas. In 2001 is an important milestone in Turkish agricultural policies. Before 2001, agricultural support policies consisted of mainly market price support, credit support and input subsidies. New policies started to be implemented after 2001. The purpose of this study was to determine the level of success in the new agricultural support policies in the context of the agreement with the European Union. We tried to find the best way to deal with the current main problems of Turkish Agricultural Sector in last year's.
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KRUKOWSKI, Artur, Tomasz KIJEK, Anna NOWAK, Armand KASZTELAN, Anna KOBIAŁKA, and Anna MATRAS-BOLIBOK. "THE POTENTİAL OF THE EUROPEAN UNİON COUNTRİES TO PRODUCE BİOMASS FOR BİODİESEL PRODUCTİON AND CONSUMPTİON PURPOSES." In RURAL DEVELOPMENT. Aleksandras Stulginskis University, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.15544/rd.2017.169.
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This article aims at evaluating the capacity of agriculture in the member states of the European Union regarding the production of biodiesel from biomass as well as identification and empirical verification of relationships between the rapeseed market and the consumption of biodiesel. The studies were based on panel data for the EU-28 member states in the period 2010-2013 obtained from Eurostat. The results of the studies point to significant differentiation in the production and consumption of biodiesel and its share in the consumption of liquid fuels in the transport sector in the EU. In 2010-2013 the consumption of biodiesel in EU countries exceeded 10.5 M TOE, with 2012 being a unique year when the consumption of biodiesel increased to nearly 12 M TOE. France and Germany are the leaders in the consumption of biodiesel in the EU; their consumption accounts for about 40% of the EU’s consumption. In the same period in the EU countries rape was cultivated over 6673.7 k ha, with the largest area recorded also in France (1516.4 k ha) and in Germany (1390.4 k ha) - the total area of rapeseed crops in those countries accounted for 43% of the total area in the EU. In this period the annual yield of rapeseed in the 28 member states of the EU on average amounted to 19979.4 k t, 50.3% of which were crops from France and Germany. This article proposes the construction of a theoretical model describing the relationship between the consumption of biodiesel and the key determinants of its production. The studies carried out show that the variable having the strongest impact on the consumption of biodiesel in the countries of the EU is the price of rapeseed (smaller-the-better characteristic). At the same time it was demonstrated that the consumption of biodiesel is stimulated by the supply of rapeseed.
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Kontsevaya, Stanislava, Lubos Smutka, Alexander Metlyahin, and Alina Danilovska. "Trade Flow Estimation Between Russia and European Union Countries per Agricultural Commodity Group." In Hradec Economic Days 2020, edited by Petra Maresova, Pavel Jedlicka, Krzysztof Firlej, and Ivan Soukal. University of Hradec Kralove, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.36689/uhk/hed/2020-01-040.
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KIJEK, Tomasz, Anna NOWAK, Armand KASZTELAN, and Artur KRUKOWSKI. "AGRICULTURAL TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY CHANGES IN THE NEW AND THE OLD EUROPEAN UNION MEMBERS." In Rural Development 2015. Aleksandras Stulginskis University, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.15544/rd.2015.084.
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The aim of this study was the evaluation of agricultural total factor productivity changes between new member countries which have acceded to EU after 2004 and so-called ‘old 15’ EU members. The analysis covered the years 2007–2013. The study is based on Malmquist productivity index divided into technological change and changes in technical efficiency. The results showed a slight increase in the agricultural total factor productivity in the EU countries in the years 2007–2013 (0.1 %, which mainly resulted from a slight increase in technical efficiency in agriculture(0.4 % ), while at the same time adverse technological changes. Among all the countries of the ‘old 15’, only Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, United Kingdom and Sweden reported increased index of productivity. In the group of countries that joined the EU after 2004, the total productivity growth took place in such countries as Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Malta, Slovakia and Hungary. The reason for this increase was primarily changes in technical efficiency.
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Palkova, Zuzana, Marta Harnicarova, Jan Valicek, Vojtech Stehel, Nikolay Mihailov, Maria Fragkaki, Walid Mahmoud Khalilia, and Aziz Abdel Karim Awad Salameh. "Perspective of education in Agriculture 4.0 in selected countries in European Union and Palestine." In 2022 8th International Conference on Energy Efficiency and Agricultural Engineering (EE&AE). IEEE, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eeae53789.2022.9831232.
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Baigonushova, Damira, Junus Ganiev, and Mairam Baigonusheva. "Government Support of the Agricultural Sector in the EAEU Countries." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c11.02291.
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As it is known, in 2010, a customs union with three participants, Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan, was formed on the territory of the former Soviet Union. In 2015, the union moved to another stage, the economic union. In 2015, Kyrgyzstan became a full member of this union and is currently trying to adapt to new economic conditions. In particular, the Agricultural Policy Department of the Eurasian Economic Commission is currently actively working on the development and implementation of common agricultural policy. Kyrgyzstan, despite the limited territory for agricultural production, is an agricultural country and has a comparative advantage in this sector. Therefore, the country should take an active role in the development of a common agricultural policy and create favorable conditions for the development of the own agrarian sector and use advantages. The purpose of this work is to analyze the developed plans and policies of the Agricultural Policy Department of the Eurasian Economic Commission, as well as conduct a comparative analysis with the common agricultural policy of the European Union, and at the end to make proposals.
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Fanelli, R. M., and A. Di Nocera. "27. Differences and analogies in the environmental aspects among agricultural sectors of European Union countries." In 55th SIDEA Conference. The Netherlands: Wageningen Academic Publishers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.3920/978-90-8686-898-8_27.
Full textReports on the topic "Agricultural prices – European Union countries"
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Osidoma, Japhet, and Ashiru Mohammed Kinkwa. Creatively Improving Agricultural Practices and Productivity: Pro Resilience Action (PROACT) project, Nigeria. Oxfam, February 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.21201/2021.7260.
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Since April 2016, The European Union and the Oxfam Pro-Resilience Action Project in Kebbi and Adamawa States, Nigeria, have supported poor smallholder rural farmers to improve their agricultural productivity. The project has a specific focus on increasing crop yields per hectare for better land usage, as well as ensuring farmers possess the skills they need to maintain good agricultural practices, such as inputs utilization and climate mitigation strategies, as well as an information-sharing system on weather and market prices. The project uses a Farmer Field School model that continues to serve as a viable platform for rural farmers to access hands-on skills and basic modern farming knowledge and techniques. The case studies presented here demonstrate a significant increase in farmers’ productivity, income and resilience. This approach should be emulated by governments and private sector players to achieve impact at scale in Nigeria’s agricultural sector, which is the country’s top non-oil revenue stream.
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Pastuszko, Radosław Pastuszko, and Włodzimierz Gogłoza Gogłoza. The impact of European Union Common Agricultural Policy on the intensification of animal farming in Bulgaria, Romania, and the countries that have signed association agreements with the EU. Tiny Beam Fund, January 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.15868/socialsector.37974.
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Monetary Policy Report - July 2022. Banco de la República, October 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr3-2022.
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In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias