Academic literature on the topic 'Adaptive and integrated disaster resilience'

As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of disasters and associated infrastructure damage, Alternative Project Delivery Methods are well positioned to enable innovative contracting and partnering methods for designing and delivering adaptation solutions that are more time- and cost-effective. However, where conventional “build-back-as-before” post-disaster reconstruction occurs, communities remain vulnerable to future disasters of similar or greater magnitude. In this conceptual paper, we draw on a variety of literature and emergent practices to present how such alternative delivery methods of reconstruction projects can systematically integrate “build-back-better” and introduce more resilient infrastructure outcomes. Considering existing knowledge regarding infrastructure resilience, post-disaster reconstruction and project delivery methods, we consider the resilience regimes of rebound, robustness, graceful extensibility, and sustained adaptability to present the potential for alternative project delivery methods to improve the agility and flexibility of infrastructure against future climate-related and other hazards. We discuss the criticality of continued pursuit of stakeholder engagement to support further improvements to project delivery methods, enabling new opportunities for engaging with a broader set of stakeholders, and for stakeholders to contribute new knowledge and insights to the design process. We conclude the significant potential for such methods to enable resilient infrastructure outcomes, through prioritizing resilience alongside time and cost. We also present a visual schematic in the form of a framework for enabling post-disaster infrastructure delivery for resilience outcomes, across different scales and timeframes of reconstruction. The findings have immediate implications for agencies managing disaster recovery efforts, offering decision-support for improving the adaptive capacity of infrastructure, the services they deliver, and capacities of the communities that rely on them.

Small island developing states (SIDS) are typically characterized by being environmentally and socio-economically vulnerable to disasters and climate change. Additionally, they often have limited resources for freshwater provisioning services. This article presents an assessment of disaster risk and water security-related challenges in SIDS focusing on three major dimensions: (a) how disaster risks are perceived and addressed in the SIDS context using a case study method, (b) analyzing the current status of water security in these regions using an indicator-based approach and (c) assessing gaps and needs in institutions and policies that can facilitate sustainable development goals (SDGs) and targets, adaptation and resilience building in SIDS. In this regard, information on all SIDS is collected to be able to distinguish trends in and between SIDS based on amongst others geographical location and characteristics. This synthesis noted two key observations: first, that in SIDS, the number of disasters is increasing at a higher rate than the global average, and that the frequency and intensity of the disasters will likely increase because of climate change. These combined factors will impact SIDS on the societal level and on environmental levels, reducing their adaptive capacity, resources, and resilience. Second, most SIDS are already water-scarce with low groundwater volumes. Because of increasing demand (e.g., population growth and tourism) and decreasing supply (e.g., pollution and changes in precipitation patterns) freshwater resources are becoming increasingly limited, often suffering from the spillover effects of competing and conflicting uses. Threatened ecosystems and limited economic resources further influence the adaptive capacities of communities in SIDS. In this light, key solutions to address disaster-risk and water security-related challenges can be found by sharing best practices and lessons learned—from examples of good governance, integrated policies, improved community-resilience, and capacity-building. Added to their fragile situation, SIDS struggle to find enough funding to put their development plans, programs, and policies into action.

Abstract. Disaster impacts are more frequent, deadly and costly. The social and environmental consequences are increasingly complex and intertwined. Systematic as well as innovated strategies are needed to manage the impacts. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) is a systematic approach to manage disaster risks while adaptive governance (AG) is suggested as an alternative approach for governing complex problems such as disasters. The author proposes that the AG can be practicalised through a mechanism of multi-stakeholder platforms (MSPs), interpreted as multiplicity of organisations at different scales of governance working towards more coordinated and integrated actions in DRR. Ten MSPs are selected at the global, regional, national and local level, focussing on the Indonesian MSPs. The literature reviews and in-depth interviews with key respondents in Indonesia show that the international and regional MSPs tend to have more human, technical and financial capacity than national and local MSPs. The author finds that most MSP roles focus on the coordination amongst multitudes of organisations. Only those MSPs that are able to generate new funding have the capacity to implement direct risk reduction activities. The development of the MSP is highly influenced by the UNISDR system operating at different levels. Particularly in Indonesia, MSP are also influenced by the operations of various UN and international organisations. Finally, the paper suggests the need for more provision of technical supports to local MSPs, more linkages with established networks in DRR and broader stakeholders involvement within the MSPs.

It is now evident that the consequences of climate change falls disproportionately upon the poor and vulnerable populations. With increasingly unpredictable and erratic rainfall, droughts, floods, and the consequent crop failures, the lives and livelihoods of low-income groups are in constant and increased threat. The national and local adaptation plans, on one hand, strategically aim to strengthen the livelihoods and resilience of vulnerable households, cash transfers as a part of the national social protection program, on the other hand, are effectively employed for poverty reduction and strengthening the resilience of vulnerable groups. While both embody clear and overlapping objective of reduction of poverty and vulnerability to shocks, they are functioning independently, sans coordination. As social protection mechanisms are increasingly integrated with climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in other developing and emerging economies, this article introduces the concept of adaptive social protection and its relevance to the challenges of climate change in the context of Nepal. This policy-relevant paper is based on literature review and secondary sources. Literature gathered and reviewed for this paper include publications derived through online searches using carefully selected keywords. Nepal’s national social protection system is analysed for its potential in managing climate risks, when it is interfaced with the Local Adaption Plan of Actions (LAPA). This article pursues the research question: how can the social protection system be made more shock responsive and adaptive to climate-induced disasters? It concludes with the call for innovative cash-based policy mechanisms that utilise vulnerability mapping of LAPAs, and proactively address poverty, vulnerability and other constraints to human development while being responsive to climate-induced disasters.

1. Introduction This Special Issue (Part 2) expands upon the theme “Building Local Capacity for Long-term Disaster Resilience” presented in Special Issue Part 1 (JDR Volume 5, Number 2, April 2010) by examining the evolving concept of disaster resilience and providing additional reflections upon various aspects of its meaning. Part 1 provided a mixed set of examples of resiliency efforts, ranging from administrative challenges of integrating resilience into recovery to the analysis of hazard mitigation plans directed toward guiding local capability for developing resiliency. Resilience was broadly defined in the opening editorial of Special Issue Part 1 as “the capacity of a community to: 1) survive a major disaster, 2) retain essential structure and functions, and 3) adapt to post-disaster opportunities for transforming community structure and functions to meet new challenges.” In this editorial essay we first explore in Section 2 the history of resilience and then locate it within current academic and policy debates. Section 3 presents summaries of the papers in this issue. 2. Why is Resilience a Contemporary Theme? There is growing scholarly and policy interest in disaster resilience. In recent years, engineers [1], sociologists [2], geographers [3], economists [4], public policy analysts [5, 6], urban planners [7], hazards researchers [8], governments [9], and international organizations [10] have all contributed to the literature about this concept. Some authors view resilience as a mechanism for mitigating disaster impacts, with framework objectives such as resistance, absorption, and restoration [5]. Others, who focus on resiliency indicators, see it as an early warning system to assess community resiliency status [3, 8]. Recently, it has emerged as a component of social risk management that seeks to minimize social welfare loss from catastrophic disasters [6]. Manyena [11] traces scholarly exploration of resilience as an operational concept back at least five decades. Interest in resilience began in the 1940s with studies of children and trauma in the family and in the 1970s in the ecology literature as a useful framework to examine and measure the impact of assault or trauma on a defined eco-system component [12]. This led to modeling resilience measures for a variety of components within a defined ecosystem, leading to the realization that the systems approach to resiliency is attractive as a cross-disciplinary construct. The ecosystem analogy however, has limits when applied to disaster studies in that, historically, all catastrophic events have changed the place in which they occurred and a “return to normalcy” does not occur. This is true for modern urban societies as well as traditional agrarian societies. The adoption of “The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015” (also known as The Hyogo Declaration) provides a global linkage and follows the United Nations 1990s International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction effort. The 2005 Hyogo Declaration’s definition of resilience is: “The capacity of a system, community or society potentially exposed to hazards to adapt by resisting or changing in order to reach and maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure.” The proposed measurement of resilience in the Hyogo Declaration is determined by “the degree to which the social system is capable of organizing itself to increase this capacity for learning from past disasters for better future protection and to improve risk reduction measures.” While very broad, this definition contains two key concepts: 1) adaptation, and 2) maintaining acceptable levels of functioning and structure. While adaptation requires certain capacities, maintaining acceptable levels of functioning and structure requires resources, forethought, and normative action. Some of these attributes are now reflected in the 2010 National Disaster Recovery Framework published by the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) [13]. With the emergence of this new thinking on resilience related to disasters, it is now a good time to reflect on the concept and assess what has recently been said in the literature. Bruneau et al. [1] offer an engineering sciences definition for community seismic resilience: “The ability of social units (e.g., organizations, communities) to mitigate hazards, contain the effects of disasters when they occur, and carry out recovery activities in ways that minimize social disruption and mitigate the effects of future earthquakes.” Rose [4] writes that resiliency is the ability of a system to recover from a severe shock. He distinguishes two types of resilience: (1) inherent – ability under normal circumstances and (2) adaptive – ability in crisis situations due to ingenuity or extra effort. By opening up resilience to categorization he provides a pathway to establish multi-disciplinary approaches, something that is presently lacking in practice. Rose is most concerned with business disruption which can take extensive periods of time to correct. In order to make resource decisions that lower overall societal costs (economic, social, governmental and physical), Rose calls for the establishment of measurements that function as resource decision allocation guides. This has been done in part through risk transfer tools such as private insurance. However, it has not been well-adopted by governments in deciding how to allocate mitigation resources. We need to ask why the interest in resilience has grown? Manyena [11] argues that the concept of resilience has gained currency without obtaining clarity of understanding, definition, substance, philosophical dimensions, or applicability to disaster management and sustainable development theory and practice. It is evident that the “emergency management model” does not itself provide sufficient guidance for policymakers since it is too command-and-control-oriented and does not adequately address mitigation and recovery. Also, large disasters are increasingly viewed as major disruptions of the economic and social conditions of a country, state/province, or city. Lowering post-disaster costs (human life, property loss, economic advancement and government disruption) is being taken more seriously by government and civil society. The lessening of costs is not something the traditional “preparedness” stage of emergency management has concerned itself with; this is an existing void in meeting the expanding interests of government and civil society. The concept of resilience helps further clarify the relationship between risk and vulnerability. If risk is defined as “the probability of an event or condition occurring [14]#8221; then it can be reduced through physical, social, governmental, or economic means, thereby reducing the likelihood of damage and loss. Nothing can be done to stop an earthquake, volcanic eruption, cyclone, hurricane, or other natural event, but the probability of damage and loss from natural and technological hazards can be addressed through structural and non-structural strategies. Vulnerability is the absence of capacity to resist or absorb a disaster impact. Changes in vulnerability can then be achieved by changes in these capacities. In this regard, Franco and Siembieda describe in this issue how coastal cities in Chile had low resilience and high vulnerability to the tsunami generated by the February 2010 earthquake, whereas modern buildings had high resilience and, therefore, were much less vulnerable to the powerful earthquake. We also see how the framework for policy development can change through differing perspectives. Eisner discusses in this issue how local non-governmental social service agencies are building their resilience capabilities to serve target populations after a disaster occurs, becoming self-renewing social organizations and demonstrating what Leonard and Howett [6] term “social resilience.” All of the contributions to this issue illustrate the lowering of disaster impacts and strengthening of capacity (at the household, community or governmental level) for what Alesch [15] terms “post-event viability” – a term reflecting how well a person, business, community, or government functions after a disaster in addition to what they might do prior to a disaster to lessen its impact. Viability might become the definition of recovery if it can be measured or agreed upon. 3. Contents of This Issue The insights provided by the papers in this issue contribute greater clarity to an understanding of resilience, together with its applicability to disaster management. In these papers we find tools and methods, process strategies, and planning approaches. There are five papers focused on local experiences, three on state (prefecture) experiences, and two on national experiences. The papers in this issue reinforce the concept of resilience as a process, not a product, because it is the sum of many actions. The resiliency outcome is the result of multiple inputs from the level of the individual and, at times, continuing up to the national or international organizational level. Through this exploration we see that the “resiliency” concept accepts that people will come into conflict with natural or anthropogenic hazards. The policy question then becomes how to lower the impact(s) of the conflict through “hard or soft” measures (see the Special Issue Part 1 editorial for a discussion of “hard” vs. “soft” resilience). Local level Go Urakawa and Haruo Hayashi illustrate how post-disaster operations for public utilities can be problematic because many practitioners have no direct experience in such operations, noting that the formats and methods normally used in recovery depend on personal skills and effort. They describe how these problems are addressed by creating manuals on measures for effectively implementing post-disaster operations. They develop a method to extract priority operations using business impact analysis (BIA) and project management based business flow diagrams (BFD). Their article effectively illustrates the practical aspects of strengthening the resiliency of public organizations. Richard Eisner presents the framework used to initiate the development and implementation of a process to create disaster resilience in faith-based and community-based organizations that provide services to vulnerable populations in San Francisco, California. A major project outcome is the Disaster Resilience Standard for Community- and Faith-Based Service Providers. This “standard” has general applicability for use by social service agencies in the public and non-profit sectors. Alejandro Linayo addresses the growing issue of technological risk in cities. He argues for the need to understand an inherent conflict between how we occupy urban space and the technological risks created by hazardous chemicals, radiation, oil and gas, and other hazardous materials storage and movement. The paper points out that information and procedural gaps exist in terms of citizen knowledge (the right to know) and local administrative knowledge (missing expertise). Advances and experience accumulated by the Venezuela Disaster Risk Management Research Center in identifying and integrating technological risk treatment for the city of Merida, Venezuela, are highlighted as a way to move forward. L. Teresa Guevara-Perez presents the case that certain urban zoning requirements in contemporary cities encourage and, in some cases, enforce the use of building configurations that have been long recognized by earthquake engineering as seismically vulnerable. Using Western Europe and the Modernist architectural movement, she develops the historical case for understanding discrepancies between urban zoning regulations and seismic codes that have led to vulnerable modern building configurations, and traces the international dissemination of architectural and urban planning concepts that have generated vulnerability in contemporary cities around the world. Jung Eun Kang, Walter Gillis Peacock, and Rahmawati Husein discuss an assessment protocol for Hazard Mitigation Plans applied to 12 coastal hazard zone plans in the state of Texas in the U.S. The components of these plans are systematically examined in order to highlight their respective strengths and weaknesses. The authors describe an assessment tool, the plan quality score (PQS), composed of seven primary components (vision statement, planning process, fact basis, goals and objectives, inter-organizational coordination, policies & actions, and implementation), as well as a component quality score (CQS). State (Prefecture) level Charles Real presents the Natural Hazard Zonation Policies for Land Use Planning and Development in California in the U.S. California has established state-level policies that utilize knowledge of where natural hazards are more likely to occur to enhance the effectiveness of land use planning as a tool for risk mitigation. Experience in California demonstrates that a combination of education, outreach, and mutually supporting policies that are linked to state-designated natural hazard zones can form an effective framework for enhancing the role of land use planning in reducing future losses from natural disasters. Norio Maki, Keiko Tamura, and Haruo Hayashi present a method for local government stakeholders involved in pre-disaster plan making to describe performance measures through the formulation of desired outcomes. Through a case study approach, Nara and Kyoto Prefectures’ separate experiences demonstrate how to conduct Strategic Earthquake Disaster Reduction Plans and Action Plans that have deep stakeholder buy-in and outcome measurability. Nara’s plan was prepared from 2,015 stakeholder ideas and Kyoto’s plan was prepared from 1,613 stakeholder ideas. Having a quantitative target for individual objectives ensures the measurability of plan progress. Both jurisdictions have undertaken evaluations of plan outcomes. Sandy Meyer, Eugene Henry, Roy E. Wright and Cynthia A. Palmer present the State of Florida in the U.S. and its experience with pre-disaster planning for post-disaster redevelopment. Drawing upon the lessons learned from the impacts of the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, local governments and state leaders in Florida sought to find a way to encourage behavior that would create greater community resiliency in 2006. The paper presents initial efforts to develop a post-disaster redevelopment plan (PDRP), including the experience of a pilot county. National level Bo-Yao Lee provides a national perspective: New Zealand’s approach to emergency management, where all hazard risks are addressed through devolved accountability. This contemporary approach advocates collaboration and coordination, aiming to address all hazard risks through the “4Rs” – reduction, readiness, response, and recovery. Lee presents the impact of the Resource Management Act (1991), the Civil Defence Emergency Management Act (2002), and the Building Act (2004) that comprise the key legislation influencing and promoting integrated management for environment and hazard risk management. Guillermo Franco and William Siembieda provide a field assessment of the February 27, 2010, M8.8 earthquake and tsunami event in Chile. The papers present an initial damage and life-loss review and assessment of seismic building resiliency and the country’s rapid updating of building codes that have undergone continuous improvement over the past 60 years. The country’s land use planning system and its emergency management system are also described. The role of insurance coverage reveals problems in seismic coverage for homeowners. The unique role of the Catholic Church in providing temporary shelter and the central government’s five-point housing recovery plan are presented. A weakness in the government’s emergency management system’s early tsunami response system is noted. Acknowledgements The Editorial Committee extends its sincere appreciation to both the contributors and the JDR staff for their patience and determination in making Part 2 of this special issue possible. Thanks also to the reviewers for their insightful analytic comments and suggestions. Finally, the Committee wishes to again thank Bayete Henderson for his keen and thorough editorial assistance and copy editing support.

The occurrence of flood disasters has become a vicious problem in many urban regions. Operationalization of flood resilience has become a significant concern with the increase of urban development and climate change. The objective of this paper is at first to analyze how flood resilience has been framed over the past period of time. Second, this paper has focused to identify the practical difficulties related to the available flood risk assessment and management frameworks for operationalization of flood resilience. The results show that the flood risk and resilience has been framed differently throughout the time, in diverse perspectives but still remains as contested concepts. Evolutionary resilience has been reframed the flood risk management system as an integrated and adaptive system with the recognition of the uncertainties due to the dynamics of socio-spatial interdependencies of flood risk. Therefore, the integration and the adaptive capacity of spatial planning has become a crucial aspect for operationalizing flood resilience which is governed through the knowledge base of the dominant discourses of stakeholders and the way of power and the resource exercised in the context.

Agriculture based livelihoods in the developing countries are bearing significant negative impacts due to climate change. In this scenario, agroforestry is one of the best alternatives to cope with climate change and disaster risks. However, the agroforestry approaches adopted in the past were sectoral and partial, and were insufficient to contribute to socio-economic wellbeing and resilient communities. Nepal has been implementing package-based integrated agroforestry since 2016. It is a project approach to advance agroforestry practices by including disaster mitigation, land and water management, and community development activities. This paper reflects on the process and outcomes of the agroforestry practices, implemented by the government in seven super zones of Nepal. The programs have shown fairly satisfactory output in building adaptive capacity to climate change, awareness and active participation in agroforestry development activities. This paper reveals that the agroforestry alone cannot be sustained, and hence, it has to be integrated with land productivity enhancement, natural resource management, climate change adaptation, and livelihood support in addition to tree plantation in agricultural lands. This paper is crucial in understanding the scope of package-based integrated agroforestry approach to build climate resilient communities.

Local knowledge and communities’ active role in disaster risk areas are recognized in the literature as key conditions to better understand risks, enhance adaptive capacities and foster local resilience. A participatory action research project in forest fire-prone areas in Monchique, Portugal, is aligned with the literature and adopts participatory mapping as a method that can bring evidence to the importance of local knowledge and communities’ agency. In the BRIDGE Project, different types of knowledge are integrated, triggering local/collective agency and fostering a forest fire community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR) approach. An innovation laboratory (InnoLab) provides the space for dialogue and knowledge sharing for different actors that manage forest territories. In the InnoLab, participatory mapping is used as a method to engage landowners where risk factors and local vulnerabilities were identified. Their active engagement enabled a collective perception in the assessment of vulnerability and led to the identification of strategic measures for risk reduction. This paper shares the process and outcomes of this participatory mapping, highlighting the benefits of a community approach and the importance of local knowledge and practices as recognized in the literature. It also reveals how the active role of local stakeholders can help drive a CBDRR process.

Abstract The concept of health system resilience has gained popularity in the global health discourse, featuring in UN policies, academic articles and conferences. While substantial effort has gone into the conceptualization of health system resilience, there has been no review of how the concept has been operationalized in empirical studies. We conducted an empirical review in three databases using systematic methods. Findings were synthesized using descriptive quantitative analysis and by mapping aims, findings, underlying concepts and measurement approaches according to the resilience definition by Blanchet et al. We identified 71 empirical studies on health system resilience from 2008 to 2019, with an increase in literature in recent years (62% of studies published since 2017). Most studies addressed a specific crisis or challenge (82%), most notably infectious disease outbreaks (20%), natural disasters (15%) and climate change (11%). A large proportion of studies focused on service delivery (48%), while other health system building blocks were side-lined. The studies differed in terms of their disciplinary tradition and conceptual background, which was reflected in the variety of concepts and measurement approaches used. Despite extensive theoretical work on the domains which constitute health system resilience, we found that most of the empirical literature only addressed particular aspects related to absorptive and adaptive capacities, with legitimacy of institutions and transformative resilience seldom addressed. Qualitative and mixed methods research captured a broader range of resilience domains than quantitative research. The review shows that the way in which resilience is currently applied in the empirical literature does not match its theoretical foundations. In order to do justice to the complexities of the resilience concept, knowledge from both quantitative and qualitative research traditions should be integrated in a comprehensive assessment framework. Only then will the theoretical ‘resilience idea’ be able to prove its usefulness for the research community.

Severe recovery deficits after post-disaster interventions have become the landscape seen globally. Humanitarian operations have struggled to find coherence between relief and recovery activities, which has resulted in a perceived operational gap between relief, recovery and development. This current dynamic has caused significant deficiencies within humanitarian programming, such as weak strategy, a lack of transition mechanisms, exit plans and effective recovery. A situation that stems from the current paradigm the humanitarian system operates under and the framework that has evolved around it. Supporting the development of adaptive resilience of a disaster-affected population, within the humanitarian sphere, has been theoretically posed to be fundamental for recovery; a programmatic consideration that could ensure former weak resilience would not hinder post-disaster recovery. Therefore, could a resilience building approach offer much needed solutions to the challenge of recovery within post-disaster contexts? This research aimed to understand whether resilience building within post-disaster environments could increase potential recovery of disaster affected populations and whether it is feasible to build individual/household (HH) level resilience through emergency response operations? The research looked specifically at adaptive resilience at the individual/HH level, clarifying the concept and understanding its modality in order to operationalise it within humanitarian programming. The common barriers to recovery experienced by individuals/HH in a crisis event were gauged, and the relationship between adaptive resilience and recovery determined. A unique singular case study was used to collect quantitative and qualitative data required to answer the key objectives of this research. The case study chosen was the 2010 Haiti earthquake response. Primary data was collected over a 7 months period through 37 semi-structured interviews and 31 online questionnaires with donors, government, INGOs, LNGOs and the private sector, that were operating within the Haiti response, and 18 disaster affected community members within a community discussion forum. Bringing a total participation of 86 individuals and organisations. An in-depth case study was developed in order to offer an evidence base for the proposed theory, that supporting adaptive resilience through emergency response programming has the ability to stimulate recovery. A new data collection tool was trialed within the community discussion forum, namely the Sociogram. This tool looked to assess the main components of adaptive resilience. Methodological rigour was introduced through the use of methodological and data triangulation to ensure validity and reliability of the research. The research successfully identified the main barriers to recovery, pinpointed the key components for adaptive resilience and the influence of emergency programming on the development of adaptive resilience, establishing the relationship between them. The role emergency response operations can play in the development of adaptive resilience was then explored. It has been demonstrated that to ensure recovery and allow for a more resilient society to evolve, adaptive resilience needs to be and can be supported and developed within emergency response operations. The research has been able to demonstrate, through the analysis of the Shelter and WASH response undertaken in Haiti, that developing resilience in the post-disaster environment is possible and an approach that is able to improve strategy within emergency response operations. Improvements would be seen in the provision of essential services within the response, a substantial increase in transitional and exit options and an increased capacity to proactively stimulate rapid recovery. This strategic approach to emergency response programming has the ability to offer the coherence needed between relief, recovery and development. Determining that a resilience building approach within emergency response operations could be the missing link or resolution to the perceived operational gap between relief, recovery and development. Pursuing a resilience building approach has the potential to bring much needed cultural change within the humanitarian sector that will shape operations for a more strategic and successful future.

The impacts and costs of natural disasters on people, properties and environment is often severe when they occur on a large scale or when not prepared for. Factors such as impacts of climate change, urban growth, poor planning to mention a few, have continued to significantly increase the frequencies and impacts of natural disasters across the world, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) inclusive. While the frequencies of natural disasters might not be controlled easily, the need for more effective early warning systems has become highly important. In recent years, existing researches and international organisations such as the United Nations (UN) have identified lack of Early Warning System (EWS) and the lack of integrated approach to disaster response as one of the reasons many deaths occur when natural disasters happen especially in developing countries. For instance, some communities in the (UAE) have suffered the impact of natural disasters in recent years due to lack of EWS deployment and lack of community knowledge of risks of natural disasters. These problems emphasises the importance of this research which aims to decrease the vulnerability of communities in the Emirates by developing a framework for integrated early warning systems in community in order to increase response capabilities against the risk of natural disasters in the United Arab Emirates. This research used case study, semi-structure interview and questionnaire techniques to investigate deployment of EWS and current practice of EWS in the emirates of Abu Dhabi and Fujairah. The effectiveness of the EWS in the UAE was evaluated international best practice in EWS and ten principles which guides EWS deployment in seven countries. While this influenced the collection of secondary data, it also influenced the collection of primary data through semi-structured interviews with 12 strategic officers from organisations involved emergency, crisis and disaster management in the UAE from the Emirates of Fujairah and Abu Dhabi. Questionnaires were also administered to a total of 1,080 respondents from the two emirates. The research outcomes show that EWS in Abu Dhabi and Fujairah lacked the essential elements of EWS. The results also emphasised the need to promptly develop the specific elements which are lacking and to improve the ones which were ineffective. The conclusion of this research have emphasised that community-centred EWS can be applied in the UAE, but can only be effectively applied by using the framework developed in this research which captures areas for further development and areas of improvement.

The intensifying nature and extent of disasters together with the associated devastation and astronomical costs required to manage the rippling effects of disasters, enunciates the national and international focus on disaster risk reduction. Further the ever evolving and complex dynamics of risk as the decisive contributor to disasters has heightened the urgency to pursue effective disaster risk assessment as a prerequisite to inform the disaster risk management planning and disaster risk reduction intervention processes. A structured and systematic approach to disaster risk assessment assists in maintaining rigour thus promoting the quality and validity of the process and its outcomes. Appropriate models serve as valuable tools in enabling this methodological perspective to undertake disaster risk assessment. The nonexistence of an appropriate disaster risk assessment model in South Africa has initiated the emphasis and purpose of this study thereby underscoring the critical need for the development of an effective, holistic and integrated disaster risk assessment model for local government in South Africa. In spear heading the process towards the development of an appropriate disaster risk assessment model, the research commenced with establishing and asserting the fundamental link between disaster risk assessment and disaster risk reduction as an avenue to contextualise and ground the key issues in effective disaster risk reduction. The exploratory analysis engaged in presenting a theoretical construct of disaster risk assessment examined the core components informing the disaster risk assessment process. This discussion led to the comparative review of three disaster risk assessment models viz the Community-Wide Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment (CVCA) Model, the Community-Based Risk Reduction Model and the South African Disaster Risk Assessment Model interrogating the significant characteristics, structure and application of the models. The results of the comparison of the above three models provided the necessary insight for the development of the disaster risk assessment model for local government in South Africa. Further influenced by the outcomes of the applied research on the critical analysis of the current disaster risk assessment practice within the four selected municipalities representing local government in South Africa; viz eThekwini Metropolitan, Ekurhuleni Metropolitan, Bojanala District and Stellenbosch local Municipalities. Through the data coding, classification and interpretive process, constructive and correlated research findings were immanent guiding the final development of the integrated disaster risk assessment model for local government in South Africa.
Thesis (Ph.D. (Public Management and Administration))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012

In the face of future uncertainties, many places are struggling with decisions about how to prepare for and adapt to climate change. The purpose of this research is to shed light on the concept of resilience, and uncover lessons for resilience-building exposed by a past disaster, Hurricane Wilma. The dissertation begins with an introduction (Chapter 1) detailing the research problem, key terms and overall research design. The study was conducted in three distinct phases. The first phase (Chapter 2), explored the concept of resilience to understand how it was defined in three South Florida communities. Content analyses of city and county documents were conducted to extract explicit definitions of resilience as well as implicit definitions based on carefully selected keywords. Results showed the engineering resilience concept was most prevalent across all three study areas. Furthermore, keywords related to the dimension of the built environment were most common in Broward and Lee Counties. While this may indicate a need for communities to shift toward more progressive, social-ecological conceptualizations of resilience, a more central conclusion was that local applications of resilience frameworks need to be more explicit about how they define resilience, and what resilience-building looks like in that particular context. Phase two (Chapter 3) explored the interplay between specified resilience, addressing resistance to known disturbances, and general resilience, addressing a system's capacity to deal with less predictable shocks. This phase entailed a content analysis of 172 Sun-Sentinel newspaper articles about Hurricane Wilma. Prominent themes that emerged included distribution of benefits and risks, social learning and memory, cross-scale issues, vulnerability and social networks. This chapter concludes with four specific recommendations for Broward County to enhance resilience to future storms and less predictable disturbances, like climate change and sea level rise. During the third phase (Chapter 4) a modified resilience activation framework was applied to analyze social factors that may limit or promote adaptive capacity in South Florida. Focus groups with homeowners were used to gain insight about past experiences with Hurricane Wilma, as well as perceptions and expectations regarding local climate adaptation efforts. Results showed that risk perceptions, insurance practices, and social networks may influence the willingness and ability of individuals to prepare for and adapt to disasters. Social limits to adaptation among participants included inaccurate risk perceptions based on past experiences and feelings of helplessness, and a lack of political trust at the state level. Social resources that can be leveraged to enhance adaptive capacity included knowledge reserves of long-term residents, strong bonding capital, and trust in local, non-elected government employees. Results from each phase of research were synthesized to create a novel procedural roadmap to guide how communities integrate resiliency into their planning documents.

Despite shifts toward a more collaborative approach to emergency management, little scholarly attention has focused on the roles of local public organizations and nonprofits that do not have explicit emergency management missions in disaster response. Scholars and government officials call for identifying key local actors and developing a more collaborative emergency preparedness approaches prior to disaster situations. In practice, emergency officials seldom recognize post-disaster efforts of these local actors. Efforts to anticipate the potential decisions and actions of organizations that do not routinely deal with disasters necessitate a better understanding of how managers perceive their post-disaster related roles and what may account for such perceptions. Focusing on public libraries in the U.S., this study draws on information gathered through surveys and semi-structured interviews with library managers and directors operating in Hampton Roads, Virginia. To further investigate variations in willingness to engage in emergency response among local jurisdictions, the study explores context-related characteristics such as organizational arrangements and features of the policy environment in which library managers operate as well as factors related to individual managerial practices. The study finds that library officials' perceptions vary across libraries. Variations range from a more defensive approach to a more proactive approach. Efforts to account for the extent to which officials would be willing to engage in a more proactive approach should consider both the emergence of individual-managers' entrepreneurial spirit and their involvement in community-based disaster planning.
Ph. D.

This thesis improves the understanding of adaptive water governance in the policy process, and draws lessons of policy relevance for flood management. Scholars using the concept of adaptive water governance posit that factors influencing the governing activities of social actors are of critical importance to improve society’s capacity to better respond to the on-going water crisis. They developed a set of principles for adaptive water governance, in particular the need for polycentric forms of governance, where power over decision-making is not held by a single social actor but distributed across society, and the use of participatory processes, promoting collective action and enhancing collective reflection. Empirical evidence on the validity of these principles remains sparse, in particular in public policy processes.The thesis uses established research on the policy process to better conceptualise the governance of complex water problems. It examines empirically the emergence of integrated, ecosystem-based flood management in Scotland, a typical Western democracy though characterised by an interesting history of institutional design and flood policy dynamics. First, factors influencing the formulation and integration of the approach in national environmental policies are identified, drawing on an inductive, thematic and historical analysis of documents and interviews with key policy actors. Second, factors influencing the implementation of the approach, in particular the role of policy instruments and public participation, are then identified in the Eddleston and Bowmont-Glen catchments. A combination of documentary analysis, interviews with local actors, and Q Methodology are used. The thesis supports the general principle that polycentric governance can improve the adaptability of governance systems. Horizontally, multiple actors with decision-making power may encourage greater reflexivity in the policy process. Having multiple policy regimes may also foster innovative interventions. Vertically, significant autonomy between governance levels may help better adapt policies to the appropriate scale of intervention. The devolution of legislative powers from the British to the Scottish level is presented as an example. At a more local level, providing greater autonomy to implementers can enhance their capacity to enforce policies. The thesis also provides evidence for critics of polycentric governance. In particular, polycentric governance may result in a lack of coherence between policy regimes, heterogeneous implementation, and potentially status-quo, rather than change. The thesis supports the idea that a strong participatory approach may help overcome the limitations of polycentric governance. Findings indicate that critical factors for success are the institutional context in which it occurs, its inclusive nature, adequate resourcing, time available, and the willingness of participants to reach compromise and learn. Individual entrepreneurship is clearly fundamental to increase the adaptability of governance systems.Overall, the thesis shows that attention to the public policy process is an important analytical approach to the study of adaptive governance. Past research on the policy process provides constructive theories to explore principles of adaptive governance in an empirical context. Main policy recommendations, for Scotland and beyond, include, amongst others, a call for strong governance arrangements to accompany the work of multi-actor groups for policy integration, the use of instrument mixes across policy regimes to influence land managers, and greater support for non-governmental catchment organisations to foster local collaboration and improve policy implementation.

Climate change is already having a powerful effect on many areas through superstorms and flooding events. The flooding from tropical storm Irene in 2011 took Vermont by surprise, sparking momentum for change. While adaptive capacity as a response to climate change is vital, in many cases it may not be enough. This thesis developed an analytical framework for assessing transformative capacities from a linked social-ecological system perspective. By combining the literatures of transition management and resilience transformations, a cohesive framework emerged, with a scope incorporating multiple interacting scales and phases of transformation.  The findings suggest a multiplicity of capacities are activated in a post-disaster setting, with networks, bridging organizations, and leaders as primary for restorative, adaptive, and transformative capacity activation, while innovation and obstacle negotiating as primary foci for informal networks and experimentation. Broadly, the framework when applied spatially (multi-scale) and temporally (multi-phase) was effective in uncovering dynamics of change processes. Additionally, a foundation of social, economic, and cultural aspects was shown to be influential in the development and mobilization of capacities, including community resilience, place attachment, and the long-term viability of the economic sector. This study makes a theoretical contribution by linking transitions and transformations literatures in a single framework, which can be tested in further studies.

The ability to recover from the effects of climate change among communities is acknowledged in previous research, where focus is laid on disaster recovery through adaptive capacities and resilience. The objective of this study was to investigate a rural community’s ability to cope with natural disasters in in the aftermath of Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston, by using the case of Mudu Village in Koro Island, Fiji. The data was based on observations through an ethnographically inspired approach, as well as 20 semistructured interviews with residents in Mudu Village and other relevant stakeholders. The study was based upon the characteristics of the concept of community resilience, which allowed for deeper understanding of disaster recovery and coping mechanisms among rural communities exposed to natural disasters. The result of the thesis has showed that disaster preparedness and social support systems within the community has increased due to the experience from past recovery processes. By using the concept of community resilience, it has further become clear that the dependence on natural resources has decreased the capacity to cope with and recover from natural disasters in Mudu Village, which thus constitutes the main hindrance to community resilience.

Rationale – Climate disasters represent a significant and growing proportion of the humanitarian burden and are a key factor in increasing poverty and insecurity. A myriad of studies demonstrate that aid delivered in an ex-ante fashion can be effective in mitigating losses of life, assets and livelihoods associated with climate hazards. This inquiry supplements the nascent body of research and empirical evidence base pertaining to the building of anticipatory capacity into large-scale national systems, namely via linking a Forecast-based Financing mechanism to an existing social protection system. Research question – Using the case of flood disasters in Bardiya district, Nepal, the research inquired the following: How can social protection be combined with Forecast-based Financing in order to optimise anticipatory humanitarian relief for climate-related disasters? Sub-questions – Research sub-questions guided the inquiry: (1) To what extent are current social protection beneficiaries exposed to climate-related disasters? (2) What is the specific climate vulnerability of social protection beneficiaries? (3) What are the anticipatory relief needs of climate vulnerable social protection beneficiaries? Methodology – Grounded in empirical research via the conduct of a qualitative single case study, the inquiry adopted a conceptual perspective and an exploratory design. A remote data collection strategy was applied, which included (1) a thorough desk review of key scientific literature and secondary data provided by in-field humanitarian organisations; and (2) semi-structured interviews with key informants. Key findings – The data demonstrated that the exposure of social protection beneficiaries to flood hazards is comparable to the general population. Nevertheless, an elevated climate vulnerability is evident secondary to an increased sensitivity and diminished adaptive capacity. The flood anticipatory relief needs/preferences identified include cash-based assistance, food provisions, evacuation assistance and/or enhanced Early Warning Systems. Conclusion – The research supports the utilisation of the proposed conceptual model for an integrated social protection and Forecast-based Financing mechanism, inclusive of vertical and horizontal expansion, in order to effectively identify the most climate vulnerable groups and to guide the provision of targeted anticipatory actions. The mechanism is optimised when a people-centred approach is utilised, with reference to the idiosyncratic, lifecycle and corresponding intersectional vulnerabilities of the targeted population. These findings will contribute to prospective programming in Nepal; additionally, the extent to which they can be generalised will be informed by future applied efficacy studies and comparative analyses with research from differing contexts.

Mestrado em Desenvolvimento e Cooperação Internacional
Nas últimas décadas tem-se verificado um aumento considerável na frequência e intensidade de desastres naturais. A preocupação daí consequente reflectiu-se na intensificação, desde os anos 70, de reflexões académicas e publicações, resultantes de encontros e conferências, de âmbito nacional e internacional - como as conferências mundiais sobre prevenção de desastres. Nos anos 90, decretada a Década Internacional para a Prevenção de Desastres, deu-se uma transição de paradigma em relação aos desastres naturais: de uma cultura de reacção a uma cultura de prevenção. A cultura de prevenção, através da gestão de desastres, enfatiza a identificação de ameaças e vulnerabilidades, tendo ainda em consideração o nível de capacidade de resposta à redução do risco de desastres (RRD), para medir o impacto de um desastre. Neste quadro encontram-se inseridos programas de redução do risco de desastres a nível mundial, que obtêm financiamento através do programa de preparação de desastres, da Comissão Europeia, designado DIPECHO. A Oikos - Cooperação e Desenvolvimento, a partir de três DIPECHO implementados na micro-região sul, centro e norte de Auachapán (El Salvador), visa promover a consciencialização, responsabilização e comprometimento - tanto a nível político como das comunidades e entidades relativamente à redução do risco de desastres (RRD).
In the last decades there has been a considerable increase in what concerns about frequency and intensification of natural disasters. Such concern consequence of that reality has been reflected in the intensification, since the 70's, of academic reflections and publications, as a result of meetings and conferences, both national and international - such as the world conferences of natural disasters' prevention. In the 90's - the International Decade for Disasters' Prevention - there was a change in the paradigm related to natural disasters: from a reaction culture to a prevention one. The last one, through the management of disasters, emphasizes the threats and vulnerabilities identification, as well as it takes into account the level of ability to respond to the disaster risk reduction (DRR), in order to measure its impact. In this context, there has been included several disaster risk reduction programs, at a global level, which obtain financing from the Disasters Preparation, of the European Commission - the DIPECHO. Oikos - Cooperação e Desenvolvimento, through three DIPECHO programs implemented in the southern, centre and northern micro-regions of Auachapán (El Salvador), aims to promote the awareness, responsability, and commitment, both at political and community levels, relative to the RRD.

Integrated water resources management (IWRM) has become a globally recognized approach to water governance. However, the definition of IWRM remains abstract, and implementation challenges remain. This chapter analyzes IWRM from the perspective of adaptive governance, which conceptualizes IWRM as an institutional arrangement that seeks to solve collective-action problems associated with water resources and adapt over time in response to social and environmental change. Adaptive governance synthesizes several strands of literature to identify the core social processes of water governance: cooperation, learning, and resource distribution. This chapter reviews the existing research on these ideas and presents frontier research questions that require continued investigation to understand how IWRM contributes to the sustainability and resilience of water governance. It argues that an adaptive governance lens allows movement beyond the contentious normative debate surrounding the appropriate definition of IWRM to analyze the core social and political processes driving its decision-making processes.

This collection of essays is driven by the proposition that environmental and cultural sustainability are inextricably linked. The authors are unified by the influence of the pioneering work of Jeff Todd Titon in developing broadly ecological approaches to folklore, ethnomusicology, and sustainability. These approaches lead to advocacy and activism. Building on and responding to Titon's work, the authors call for profoundly integrated efforts to better understand sustainability as a challenge that encompasses all living beings and ecological systems, including human cultural systems. While many of the chapters address musicking and ecomusicology, others focus on filmmaking, folklore, digital media, philosophy, and photography. Organized into five parts, Part 1 establishes a theoretical foundation and suggests methods for approaching the daunting issues of sustainability, resilience, and adaptive management. Part 2 offers five case studies interpreting widely divergent ways that humans are grappling with ecological and environmental challenges by engaging in expressive culture. Part 3 illustrates the role of media in sustainable cultural practices. Part 4 asks how human vocal expression may be central to human self-realization and cultural survival with case studies ranging from the digital transmission of Torah chanting traditions to Russian laments. Part 5 embraces Titon's highly influential work establishing and promoting applied ethnomusicology, and speaks directly to the themes of advocacy and activism.

Essentials for Health Protection: Four Key Components is an introductory to intermediate level textbook and reference book for undergraduate and postgraduate students, as well as healthcare professionals, non-health actors, and policymakers who are interested in obtaining an overview of an integrated and comprehensive public health approach to health protection. Health protection is one of the three major core theoretical domains of public health, which aims to prevent and manage communicable disease outbreaks and environmental health risks and related diseases. Effective health protection measures may enhance individual, community, and institutional resilience in coping with extreme events. In addition to introducing the four areas covering both health and environmental protection, namely, climate change adaptation and mitigation, emergency preparedness, communicable disease control, and environmental health, this book will also explore a number of new health protection frontiers, such as key discussions in Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management (H-EDRM), planetary health, and sustainability. The whole health protection spectrum from risk mitigation, prevention interventions, and emergency response are discussed in a comprehensive, contextual, multidisciplinary, and cross-national way. Various text boxes and case examples are included throughout the book to illustrate what the current status of health protection is globally and impart the latest controversies and dynamics that might change the landscape and reality of health protection practices and development.

AbstractThis study outlines the adaptation planning journey undertaken by Derry City and Strabane District Council (DCSDC) in Northern Ireland and reflects how the prevailing policy context and level of organisational adaptive capacity create the conditions for mainstreaming climate adaptation into planning and development. This chapter explores the potential of local government in Northern Ireland to integrate local authority policy drivers such as disaster risk reduction (DRR), emergency planning, risk and assurance, and community resilience. The ability to communicate risks and solutions was identified as an important consideration when undertaking adaptation planning, particularly when discussing the adaptation planning process and securing input or support from colleagues. Moreover, a significant amount of engagement was required with local government agencies to increase understanding of the relevance of climate change and DRR. Embedding DRR and climate change adaptation (CCA) within local authority policy and planning can enable a greater understanding of specific risks to local governments and act as a catalyst for further action.

With the increasing climate change, the contradiction between the vulnerable natural conditions and rapid urbanization in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area becomes much more prominent. Urban security is threatened by various severe natural disasters, such as rising sea level, storm surges, and intensified floods, etc. To solve this problem, based on the theory of resilient city, this paper develops three resilient urban design principles: 1) integrated city principle; 2) adaptive technology principle; 3) flexible design principle, and build a research-designfeedback loop pattern. In the research and prediction stage, we quantitatively calculate the influence of natural disasters that may happen in the future in the Greater Bay Area and map the disaster influence in the natural basement layer, urban infrastructure network layer and urban settlement layer by Geographic Information System(GIS) through scenario stimulation. Based on this, the most severely affected areas in the future will be defined as key design areas. In the urban design stage, we focus on one of the key design areas – Pazhou and stimulate multiple scenarios to assess the urban resilient risk. We propose different integrated urban design strategies to balance the urban development and risk, select the adaptive hydraulic engineering technology to realize a more sustainable green infrastructure and build a flexible development framework to face the future uncertainty. In the evaluation and feedback stage, we develop a time series model of heavy rainfall to evaluate urban resilience in different design and quantify the impact of natural disasters through a set of urban resilience indicators in various layers, in order to pick up more resilient design to optimize. The practice experience shows that the resilient city is a long-term process, which requires an interdisciplinary cooperation mode, among research, design and feedback and a great management and control platform and a multi-objective evaluation index system so as to achieve real-time monitoring, regular evaluation, and dynamic control. This study attempts to make up for the lack of resilience city research in planning and design practice, to provide practical experience for the next stage of urban building.

<p>This paper presents a cost-benefit model as part of the options appraisal process to evaluate alternative ground mitigation interventions to reduce vulnerability and/or improve resilience of built assets to earthquake induced liquefaction disaster (EILD) events. The paper presents a review of alternative approaches to cost-benefit analysis and develops forward looking (risk based) and backward looking (impact based) cost-benefit models that can be used by practitioners and policy makers to improve community resilience through better contingency and disaster management planning. The paper customises the models against EILD scenarios and identifies the cost and benefit attributes that need to be assessed if the models are to be effectively integrated into a resilience assessment and improvement framework for improved community resilience to EILD events.</p>

In 2016 the City of Rotterdam joined the 100 Resilient Cities of The Rockefeller Foundation. The 100 Resilient Cities is an initiative emphasizing the need for cities to build resilience. Rotterdam was one of the first to heed the call of the 100 Resilient Cities highlighting the city’s position as a frontrunner in addressing climate adaptive urban planning projects and innovative means in dealing with flood risks and vulnerabilities. Learning from the great North Sea flood of 1953 disaster experience, the Netherlands ensured strong preventive measures making the country safe from flooding. The City of Rotterdam benefits from these strong preventive measures as this safeguards the city and the biggest and most important port in Europe from any disaster. However, these strong preventive measure have also muted the concept of resilience on the stakeholders. This is also further weighed down by the many different initiatives present in the city. The paper seeks to investigate the institutional and non-institutional actors perspective on resilience and the environmental threats in the City of Rotterdam. The research assumes that knowledge and experience on Rotterdam’s environmental vulnerabilities and threats lead to better collaboration between and among stakeholders in making the city resilient. This knowledge and experience also leads to the mutual adaptation of roles between the government and other stakeholders of the city such as the citizens, businesses, academe, civil society organizations among others. The research explores questions related to stakeholders perception on risk and vulnerability of the city to disasters, disaster awareness and concern, and their definition of resilience and a resilient city.

Disasters resulting from natural hazards cause physical, social and economic damage. With rise in frequency and severity of such natural hazards each year, post-disaster shelter and settlement reconstruction projects are getting more and more complex. Future project managers who will be managing shelter and settlement reconstruction projects require continuous updating of their skills and knowledge to effectively contribute in disaster resilience. They require project management methodology and education to plan and implement projects that will deliver value to their stakeholders. In 2021, faculty from Technical University of Kaiserslautern in Germany as a Higher Educational Institute (HEI) together with partner institutes quickly integrated disaster related knowledge into its curriculum and offered elective course titled “Reconstruction of Shelter and Settlements after Disasters”. Through active learning strategy like scenario-based learning the course taught Master’s degree students from Civil engineering program about ways to integrate resilience into planning, design, construction process. Students worked through a storyline based on a complex problem of managing projects in post-disaster reconstruction in small groups. This paper describes the process of design of scenario-based learning. Furthermore, through literature review and from empirical evidence obtained from course evaluation survey this paper explores efficiency of scenario-based learning and identifies certain project management skillsets that can be delivered to students who want to work in post-disaster reconstruction projects. The findings show that scenario-based learning can engage students when its contents are well-structured to portray reality and complexity. A practical process for assessing, planning and delivering high value outcomes for post-disaster reconstruction projects immerses students into critical thinking and problem solving.

In 2021, Dordrecht, the oldest city in the Netherlands, will be commemorating the 600th anniversary of the St. Elizabeth flood. This disaster flood event inundated the entire Dordrecht and separated the city from Geertruidenberg. After the flood Dordrecht was left with only the old city center that the city had to reclaim their land. To date Dordrecht has remained an island surrounded by water. The city’s vulnerability to flooding have prompted the city to actively participate in climate adaptation strategies and innovative design methodologies to help the island city cope with changing climatic conditions. Dordrecht is one of the cities participating in the Room for the River project which allows vast tracks of land to be flooded in the event of a big flood. The city is also surrounded by dikes that protect parts of the city from any impending flood danger. Still the historic city center which lies in the unembanked area occasionally experience flooding. Every two to five years residents of Dordrecht especially in the old city center experience some low level flooding due to high waters and heavy rainfall. Yearly the city conducts a drill in the city center to train people on how to place flood barriers and sandbags in front of their homes. However, there is also a sense of complacency especially for the areas in the city where the structural measures were heavily constructed (those that are within the dike). This feeling of complacency may have been placed due to their strong belief that the city is indeed safe due to the structural measures that have been carefully integrated to ensure that flooding will never happen again. Memory-based disaster experience can be the starting point in building knowledge on disasters. Most often people who have experienced a disaster can provide experiential knowledge in dealing with disasters in the future. Further people who experience disasters on a more regular basis have more built in memory and knowledge. Using interviews from key stakeholders of Dordrecht, the paper will draw out how this memory-based disaster experience and living with water helps Dordrecht towards its vision to become a self-reliant island.

Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) as discussed in this report is an approach to enhance the well-being of communities at risk. As an integrated approach, ASP builds on the interface of Disaster Risk Management (DRM), Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Social Protection (SP) to address interconnected risks by building resilience, thereby overcoming the shortcomings of traditionally sectoral approaches. The design of meaningful ASP measures needs to be informed by specific information on risk, risk drivers and impacts on communities at risk. In contrast, a limited understanding of risk and its drivers can potentially lead to maladaptation practices. Therefore, multidimensional risk assessments are vital for the successful implementation of ASP. Although many sectoral tools to assess risks exist, available integrated risk assessment methods across sectors are still inadequate in the context of ASP, presenting an important research and implementation gap. ASP is now gaining international momentum, making the timely development of a comprehensive risk analytics tool even more important, including in Indonesia, where nationwide implementation of ASP is currently under way. OBJECTIVE: To address this gap, this study explores the feasibility of a climate and disaster risk analytics tool for ASP (CADRAT-ASP), combining sectoral risk assessment in the context of ASP with a more comprehensive risk analytics approach. Risk analytics improve the understanding of risks by locating and quantifying the potential impacts of disasters. For example, the Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) framework quantifies probable current and expected future impacts of extreme events and determines the monetary cost and benefits of specific risk management and adaptation measures. Using the ECA framework, this report examines the viability and practicality of applying a quantitative risk analytics approach for non-financial and non-tangible assets that were identified as central to ASP. This quantitative approach helps to identify cost-effective interventions to support risk-informed decision making for ASP. Therefore, we used Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, as a case study, to identify potential entry points and examples for the further development and application of such an approach. METHODS & RESULTS: The report presents an analysis of central risks and related impacts on communities in the context of ASP. In addition, central social protection dimensions (SPD) necessary for the successful implementation of ASP and respective data needs from a theoretical perspective are identified. The application of the quantitative ECA framework is tested for tropical storms in the context of ASP, providing an operational perspective on technical feasibility. Finally, recommendations on further research for the potential application of a suitable ASP risk analytics tool in Indonesia are proposed. Results show that the ECA framework and its quantitative modelling platform CLIMADA successfully quantified the impact of tropical storms on four SPDs. These SPDs (income, access to health, access to education and mobility) were selected based on the results from the Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability Assessment (HEVA) conducted to support the development of an ASP roadmap for the Republic of Indonesia (UNU-EHS 2022, forthcoming). The SPDs were modelled using remote sensing, gridded data and available global indices. The results illustrate the value of the outcome to inform decision making and a better allocation of resources to deliver ASP to the case study area. RECOMMENDATIONS: This report highlights strong potential for the application of the ECA framework in the ASP context. The impact of extreme weather events on four social protection dimensions, ranging from access to health care and income to education and mobility, were successfully quantified. In addition, further developments of CADRAT-ASP can be envisaged to improve modelling results and uptake of this tool in ASP implementation. Recommendations are provided for four central themes: mainstreaming the CADRAT approach into ASP, data and information needs for the application of CADRAT-ASP, methodological advancements of the ECA framework to support ASP and use of CADRAT-ASP for improved resilience-building. Specific recommendations are given, including the integration of additional hazards, such as flood, drought or heatwaves, for a more comprehensive outlook on potential risks. This would provide a broader overview and allow for multi-hazard risk planning. In addition, high-resolution local data and stakeholder involvement can increase both ownership and the relevance of SPDs. Further recommendations include the development of a database and the inclusion of climate and socioeconomic scenarios in analyses.

Risk induced by natural hazards and climate change has been accelerating worldwide, leading to adverse impacts on communities' well-being. Dealing with this risk is increasingly complex and requires cross-sectoral action. Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) has emerged as a promising approach to strengthen the resilience of communities by integrating Social Protection (SP), Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) efforts. To inform this integration and thereby support the development of a functional ASP approach, the identification and provision of relevant data and information are vital. In this context, risk assessments are crucial as they establish the groundwork for the design of effective ASP interventions. However, despite the importance of risk information for ASP and the abundance of sectoral assessments, there is not yet a comprehensive risk assessment approach, a reality that also applies to Indonesia. Although the country is one of the international pioneers of the concept and has enshrined ASP at the highest national level in its development plans, this emphasis in policy and practice has been hampered by the absence of more unified assessment methods. The Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability Assessment (HEVA) presented here takes a unique approach to develop such a cross-sectoral risk assessment and apply it throughout Indonesia. The HEVA brings together different risk understandings of key actors both internationally and domestically within SP, DRM and CCA, as well as identifying commonalities across sectors to establish a joint understanding. The HEVA not only considers risk as an overarching outcome but also focuses on its drivers, i.e. hazards, exposure and vulnerability, to identify why specific communities are at risk and thus customize ASP interventions. Subsequently, risks are assessed for Indonesia’s regions and provinces based on this cross-sectoral risk understanding. Secondary data has been acquired from various existing sectoral assessments conducted in Indonesia, and in total, data for 44 indicators has been compiled to calculate hazard, exposure and vulnerability levels for all 34 Indonesian provinces. Findings of the HEVA suggest that overall risk is high in Indonesia and no single province can be characterized as a low-risk area, demonstrating a strong relevance for ASP throughout the whole of the country. Papua, Maluku, and Central Sulawesi were identified as provinces with the highest overall risk in Indonesia. However, even Yogyakarta, which was identified as a comparatively low-risk province, still ranks among the ten most hazard-prone provinces in the country and has a demonstrated history of severe impact events. This also underlines that the composition of risk based on the interplay of hazard, exposure and vulnerability differs significantly among provinces. For example, in Papua and West Papua, vulnerability ranks as the highest in Indonesia, while hazard and exposure levels are comparatively low. In contrast, East Java and Central Java are among the highest hazard-prone provinces, while exposure and vulnerability are comparatively low. The results provide much more comprehensive insight than individual sectoral analyses can offer, facilitating the strategic development and implementation of targeted ASP interventions that address the respective key risk components. Based on lessons learned from the development and application of the HEVA approach, as well as from the retrieved results, the report provides recommendations relevant for policymakers, practitioners and researchers. First, recommendations regarding risk assessments for ASP are given, emphasizing the need to bring together sectoral understandings and to consider the interconnection of hazards, exposure and vulnerability, including their drivers and root causes, to assess current and future risk. It is also recommended to complement national level assessments with more specific local assessments. Secondly, recommendations regarding ASP option development in general are provided, including the importance of considering side effects of interventions, root causes of risks, the potential of nature-based solutions and barriers to implementation due to local capacities when designing ASP interventions. Third, recommendations regarding focal areas for ASP programmes are outlined for the case of Indonesia, such as prioritizing interventions in risk hotspots and areas characterized by high readiness for ASP solutions. At the same time, it is vital to leave no region behind as all provinces face risks that potentially jeopardize communities’ well-being.

The effects of climate-related natural hazards pose a significant threat to sustainable development in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region and in particular its transportation sector. Risk Management provides an appropriate framework for assessing and mitigating the impacts of climate change and other climate-related natural hazards on transportation systems and choosing actions to enhance their resilience. However, analysts and policymakers involved in transportation planning, policy, and investment face significant challenges in managing the risks triggered by the effects of climate change. Climate change impacts the lifespan of roads, airports, and railroads as they have time horizons that surpass 40 years, thus making it harder (if not impossible) to forecast with confidence all relevant future events that will affect such infrastructure. In addition, the climate has already changed, so the return frequency of storms, for example, and other extreme events may now be different than suggested by the historical record in ways that are not always currently well understood. Implementing Risk Management under conditions of such uncertainty can prove difficult. Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) enables Risk Management under conditions of Deep Uncertainty, that is when risks cannot confidently be quantified. This guidebook is aligned with the Disaster and Climate Change Risk Assessment Methodology for IDB projects (IDB 2018) and introduces and provides guidance on applying methods for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) to transportation planning. It presents the methodological steps that are necessary for the implementation of DMDU methodologies and reviews several such methods, including scenario planning, Adaptive Pathways, and robust decision making (RDM). This review is geared towards supporting the incorporation of DMDU methods into IDBs transportation sector funding and planning processes.