Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Accidents de la route – Évaluation du risque'
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Brault, Maxime. "L'utilisation de l'analyse de responsabilité pour évaluer le risque d'accident mortel pour les personnes qui consomment des drogues et qui conduisent un véhicule automobile au Québec entre 1999 et 2002." Thesis, Université Laval, 2006. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2006/23971/23971.pdf.
Kouki-Zekri, Mériem. "Analyse du risque en assurance automobile : nouvelles approches." Thesis, Paris 2, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011PA020012/document.
This dissertation provides a contribution to the risk analysis on the French automobile insurance market. The objective of this thesis is threefold. The first aim relates to a theoretical framework applied on insurance market. An original model of double asymmetry of information is presented The main result that emerges is the existence of two kinds of contracts at equilibrium :a separating contract and a pooling contract. The second point concerns the past claims and the risk-coverage correlation. Bivariate and trivariate models are applied for this purpose. It results that the assumption of asymmetry of information is not rejected. The third issue is related to the over-premium that insurers apply quasi-systematically to the young drivers. We show, using econometric modeling, that this over-pricing compared to the experienced drivers’premium isnot necessary and its removal does not compromise the sustainability of the insurance company
Maatig, Meriem. "Effets des comportements à risque des conducteurs sur la sinistralité : analyse empirique sur des données françaises." Paris 2, 2010. http://www.theses.fr/2010PA020031.
Belmekki, Sabrine. "Multi-level risk and collective perception for high quality of service automated mobility in a highly dynamic V2X connected environment." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université de Lille (2022-....), 2023. http://www.theses.fr/2023ULILB009.
The use of automated vehicle (AV) technologies such as self-driving cars is becoming more prevalent in daily life. These technologies aim to create fully- connectedtransportation systems, still there are concerns that remain unaddressed. Studieshave shown that AVs can reduce collisions, ease traffic congestion, and providetransportation options for those who lack access. Yet, car manufacturers havealready implemented certain automated features in their vehicles. One importantaspect of AVs is improving communication between the vehicle and roadside.The objective of this study is to investigate the adaptability and suitability of theChain branch leaf (CBL) communication model in cooperative systems to exam-ine its impact on traffic responses. Additionally, the research aims to determinethe role of Roadside Units and the effectiveness of multi-level perception in riskmitigation. The ultimate goal of this research is to improve communication andcollaboration between autonomous vehicles leading to safer and more efficient traf-fic flow.This thesis focuses on the estimation of obstacle attributes, the road, and theego-vehicle to improve the quality of service on the road through communication,localization, and perception functions. We propose architectures and communica-tion strategies that will take into account the information of surrounding vehiclesto optimize coverage and estimate collision risk at different levels including local,extended local, extended branch, and global.Subsequently, we use the most relevant metrics (Time to Collision (TTC), TimeHeadway (TH), Distance of Gruyer (DG), RISK (R), Risk estimator with Uncer-tainties and Multidimensional model (RIMUM)), to estimate the four (extended)collision risks. In optimal conditions first with perfect location and perception,and then the uncertainty scenario of perception with perfect location. Resultsshow that the extended risks allow better anticipation of the collision than thelocal risk.Furthermore, we have developed a new extended version of the Chain branch leaf-Gateway (CBL-G) model, which proves to be more efficient in terms of coverage.The hierarchical architecture of the model allows us to calculate collision riskswith greater accuracy. The different levels of risk allow us to identify potentiallydangerous situations earlier, which is considered to be very relevant for incidentprevention.In our future research projects, we plan to study other situations such as roadintersections, highway exits, and entrances, as well as roundabouts. Additionally,we would also like to explore cases where we are unable to locate nodes throughthe chain (such as passing through tunnels). And elaborate risk indicators thatexplore all key components (ego vehicle, driver, obstacle, road, and environment)
Fortier, Catherine. "La vitamine D en hémodialyse : Évaluation du risque de chute." Thesis, Université Laval, 2012. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2012/29574/29574.pdf.
Encelle, Paul. "Contribution à l'analyse des mécanismes de gestion et de mesures sociales d'un risque : le cas français des accidents du travail." Paris 10, 1985. http://www.theses.fr/1985PA100119.
Lenguerrand, Érik. "L'exposition au risque routier et sa prise en compte dans les analyses épidémiologiques des accidents de la route selon la disponibilité de l'information." Lyon 1, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008LYO10018.
Determining the primary road safety risk requires knowing the population at risk of being crash involved. Exposure to road risk is difficult to analyse as it is a multidimensional concept and the necessary information is often missing. Firstly, the characteristics of road exposure concept are described in a Chapter on the State of the art. Secondly, the epidemiological and accidentological approaches that allow estimating the road risk when the information on the exposure is available are discussed. Thirdly, the methods of induced and quasi-induced exposure, which are uses for determining accident risks in absence of exposure data, are compared with case control study approach. Finally, the relevance of primary safety conclusions obtained through secondary road safety data, are discussed. This work describes the strengths and weaknesses of different methods used for taking in account the role of exposure to road risk in observational analysis of primary safety
Meheust, Maxime. "Analyse et modélisation des indicateurs du risque routier : le modèle MIRR." Thesis, Paris 10, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016PA100034.
Human and social challenges related to the road safety including the costs for the society, are so important that they require a diversity of complementary analysis tools in order to better understand the road risk problem. The issue of this thesis aimed precisely at offering new tools to assess, in the best possible way, this phenomenon and to ultimately guide and support government decision-making in this field. These tools have been developed by modelling successively the mileage driven which formalizes the risk exposure, the injury accidents, the fatalities, the injuries and the two associated severity rates, using a long period and a monthly frequency. This was made by taking into consideration the multidimensional aspect, regarding the tested exogenous variables (motives for movement, meteorology, structure of the vehicle fleet and of the population, economic environment, behavioural factors, etc..), intrinsic to this issue. Breaking with conventional road accident models, the tools proposed by the MIRR model use, for every analysed variable, long-term econometric equations coupled with short-term ones. These approaches thus allow two complementary views of the road risk for a better understanding of this issue as well as an improved perception of future challenges
Maruejouls, Christophe. "Évaluation de moyens de mitigation innovants du risque hydrogène dans les réacteurs de fusion thermonucléaire." Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy, INPL, 2003. http://www.theses.fr/2003INPL051N.
One of the main accidents in ITER-type thermonuclear fusion reactors is the loss of coolant leading to hydrogen production. Within the framework of the studies on the ITER fusion reactor, a mitigation strategy for this risk must be devised by focusing on a system, which can be placed near the hydrogen source. The uncertainty as to the air content during such a scenario forbids the use of classic methods based on the hydrogen/oxygen reaction. Former studies have proposed a process based on the reduction of the manganese dioxide enhanced by silver oxide mixture. Realizing this solid/gas reaction in a fixed bel led to the kinetic determination by comparing experimental results with those provided by a model. This work also allowed to achieve a pre-design basis of the device to be implemented on ITER reactor
Morange, Arnaud. "Socio-anthropologie du risque routier : sur la nature et les causes de la réversibilité négative de l'automobilisme." Caen, 2003. http://www.theses.fr/2003CAEN1392.
Peretti-Watel, Patrick. "Les représentations du risque." Paris, Institut d'études politiques, 1999. http://www.theses.fr/1999IEPP0021.
Augé, Patrick. "Spécification, modélisation et vérification d'une architecture multi-agents dédiée à la gestion des risques de collision automobile." Paris 11, 2001. http://www.theses.fr/2001PA112345.
Computer sciences take a rising place in various industrial systems, complex spatial equipment are for instance controlled by computer systems. The equipment operates correctly when the behavior of the computer part is correct. Thus, verification methods are of great importance, as they prove the correct behavior according to rigorous and exhaustive analyses based on strong theories, the methods also bring appropriated tools. Within the verification scheme, a model of the system is described using languages which semantics associate to the model a state graph that represents all possible executions. This space makes it possible the identification of such states or sequences which are not allowed. The construction of this graph may lead to the combinatorial explosion problem. This key step takes thus preponderant place in this thesis, here are considered various construction strategies with reduction, based on partial orders and equivalency relations : verification tools implementing these strategies are compared according to various classical case studies. A more complex case study, that concerns an agent based system dedicated to road collision risks management, has also been dealt with. Consequently, specification, graph construction and verification aspects were considered. This part of the study associates researchers from different areas, highlighting key points of complex systems design. This collaboration allowed the definition of abstractions, focusing on interactions, reducing thus the size of state graphs, making possible the verification step. Modeling, within tools languages, of parallel processing, led us to propose several control schemes which verifications all succeeded
Villieux, Arnaud. "La colère au volant et ses conséquences sur le risque routier chez les jeunes automobilistes : Validation française de l'échelle de colère au volant D.A.S (driving anger expression inventory) et de l'inventaire d'expressions de la colère au volant D.A.X (Driving anger expression inventory)." Paris 5, 2007. http://www.theses.fr/2007PA05H098.
The aim of this PhD was to test for the first time in France through eight empirical studies, the relationships between trait driving anger, how people express their anger while driving, traffic violations and accidents among young drivers. We translate and validate in French the Driving Anger Scale (Deffenbacher et al. , 1994) and the Driving Anger Expression Inventory (Deffenbacher et al. , 2002). High positive correlations were observed between D. A. S. And aggressive forms of anger expression from D. A. X and also with violations. Anger evoked by progress impeded situations and use of the vehicle to express anger were good predictors of self-reported violations. Driving logs show that encounter anger-provoking situations while driving is rather frequent during short and usual trips. The implications of the findings for intervention strategies were considered
Sy, Mouhamadou Moustapha. "Analyse d'incertitude en situation accidentelle : transfert de radionucléides dans l'environnement et évaluation de l'exposition humaine par voie alimentaire." Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016AIXM4313/document.
Risk assessment, in case of nuclear emergency, is confronted to uncertainties on the transfer of radioactive substances in terrestrial ecosystems and to human population through the food chain, which could affect the reliability of decisions. The extent of the repercussions of Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents highlighted the difficulty of managing the consequences of such disasters and specifically to accommodate the different sources of uncertainty within decision-making processes. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology to account for uncertainties within environmental and food risk assessment models to improve decision support tools used for accidental situations. Different hierarchical Bayesian models aiming at capturing, within a unique modelling framework, uncertainty and variability about radioecological parameters of great importance for accidental situation were developed. Models parameters were estimated by Bayesian inference applied on databases obtained by an extended literature review. The impact on the risk assessment models of uncertainties about these radioecological parameters was then assessed by stochastic simulations and sensitivity analyses applied on two case-studies: a hypothetical accident simulating a standardized deposition of radionuclides and the accident of Fukushima nuclear power plant. The works developed in this project contribute to enhance knowledge on key processes governing environmental transfer of radionuclides and to improve the parameterization of the radioecological risk assessment models with respect to the research lines outlined by the scientific community in radioecology
Thomasson, Delphine. "Réflexions sur la régularité de dispersion des débris spatiaux et applications à la détermination de la probabilité de collision en orbite." Thesis, Lille 1, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019LIL1I035/document.
This PhD work is a contribution to the global estimation of collision risks in the Earth space environment. To estimate these risks, two time scales complement one another: over very short terms (from a few hours to a few days) the strongest changes of collision probabilities are likely to be due to catastrophic events (collision between satellites or explosions), whereas over long and even very long terms (decades or even centuries) the main goal is to assess the spatio-temporal evolution of a whole population of space debris. In both cases, this is the evaluation of the dangerousness of regions where active satellites evolve which is at stake.Throughout the discussion, we focuse on databases assimilation of on-orbit objects, as well as on simulations for small and (then) numerous objects objects that are unobservable. We follow the goal of characterizing the statistical distribution of the global population, as well as specific families generated after a punctual event (i.e: fragmentation). Some estimations of the incurred risks are provided over both short and long time scales. An innovative method is proposed to characterize the space debris distribution, that is rather commonly used in the fields of applied mathematique but not that frequently in astrodynamics: this method is based on spatial statistics to determine the space debris distribution from a statistical point of view. By defining the notions of aggregation and repulsion dynamics between objects, we have assessed the influence of small particles on the fragments distribution.The study of a real fragmentation and of the corresponding space debris cloud evolution is also conducted. The geometrical characteristics of the cloud over time are supplied as well as the estimation of the closure times corresponding to the different evolution phases of the cloud. This concrete example is also on the basis of a sensitivity analysis: by enlightening the influence of some parameters standing for the explosion and the orbit evolution parameterization, the spreading of the cloud is characterized from a statistical point of view.As a final step of this approach, some criteria are discussed to open a path through the calibration of a complete fragmentation model thanks to comparisons with real data coming from observations
Alvarez, Stephanie. "Évaluation des gains de sécurité, sécurisation des essais et analyse des accidents du véhicule autonome : une approche systémique." Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PSLEM006/document.
As automakers develop automated driving systems, they must address the implications of such systems on road safety. Notably for the safety benefit assessment, trial safety and accident analysis. However, the existing conceptual framework in road safety may not be adapted to analyze the changes and new interactions introduced by vehicle automation at all the levels of the road transport sociotechnical system.The main objective of this thesis is to apply a systems theoretic approach based on STAMP to examine the safety benefit assessment, trial safety and accident analysis of automated driving across all the levels of the road transport sociotechnical system.This research first contributes to safety benefit assessment by estimating the target population of a highway pilot system and by generating questions derived from an STPA analysis (hazard analysis based on STAMP) to facilitate the evaluation of the influence of the highway pilot system on road safety.Next, this work establishes a framework to ensure trial safety across the macroscopic and microscopic levels of the vehicle trial system by structuring the outputs of two STPA analyses.Finally, this thesis integrates elements from existing crash analysis methods and newly developed guidance elements into CAST (an accident analysis method based on STAMP) to develop a new method for the accident analysis of crashes involving automated driving called CASCAD. The application of CASCAD was illustrated using the available information of the Tesla crash on May 2016.The three applications of this research show the potential of a STAMP-based approach to provide a suitable conceptual framework for the analysis of the implications of road safety on automated driving
Tixier, Jérôme. "Méthodologie d'évaluation du niveau de risque d'un site industriel de type Seveso, basée sur la gravité des accidents majeurs et la vulnérabilité de l'environnement." Aix-Marseille 1, 2002. http://www.theses.fr/2002AIX11060.
Lenguerrand, Erik. "L'exposition au risque routier et sa prise en compte dans les analyses épidémiologiques des accidents del la route selon la disponibilité de l'information." Phd thesis, Université Claude Bernard - Lyon I, 2008. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00544856.
Alves, de Lima Danilo. "Sensor-based navigation applied to intelligent electric vehicles." Thesis, Compiègne, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015COMP2191/document.
Autonomous navigation of car-like robots is a large domain with several techniques and applications working in cooperation. It ranges from low-level control to global navigation, passing by environment perception, robot localization, and many others in asensor-based approach. Although there are very advanced works, they still presenting problems and limitations related to the environment where the car is inserted and the sensors used. This work addresses the navigation problem of car-like robots based on low cost sensors in urban environments. For this purpose, an intelligent electric vehicle was equipped with vision cameras and other sensors to be applied in three big areas of robot navigation : the Environment Perception, Local Navigation Control, and Global Navigation Management. In the environment perception, a 2D and 3D image processing approach was proposed to segment the road area and detect the obstacles. This segmentation approach also provides some image features to local navigation control.Based on the previous detected information, a hybrid control approach for vision based navigation with obstacle avoidance was applied to road lane following. It is composed by the validation of a Visual Servoing methodology (deliberative controller) in a new Image-based Dynamic Window Approach (reactive controller). To assure the car’s global navigation, we proposed the association of the data from digital maps in order tomanage the local navigation at critical points, like road intersections. Experiments in a challenging scenario with both simulated and real experimental car show the viabilityof the proposed methodology
Roy, Sophie. "Étude de la relation entre l'évolution de la condition auditive du travailleur et le risque d'accident du travail." Thesis, Université Laval, 2007. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2007/24459/24459.pdf.
Bourgeois, Julie. "Vivre avec la démence à domicile : évaluation des situations à risque pour le patient et de la vigilance chez l'aidant informel." Grenoble 2, 2009. http://www.theses.fr/2009GRE29035.
The growing proportion of people with Alzheimer's disease living at home poses problems about their safety and accompaniment. Cognitive inpairment from dementia involves memory and judgement difficulties which have repercussions on their daily life and expose them to situations of risk. The caregiver's concern is to preserve the safety of his relative, supervising, identifying and anticipating the difficulties in order to avoid risks situations. This implicit responsability, qualified as "vigilance", is an integral part of the caregivers tasks. The first aim of this study was to describe the prevalence of safety problems at home in a sample of patients with demencia seen (n=103) in a memory consultation clinic. Results show that all of the people with dementia were exposed to risks at home. The most common risks reported concerned fires, food and medication. The use of the Safety Assessment Scale is useful in the context of consultation to determine the risks at home and to focus the interview with the caregivers torwards preventing accidents and improving quality of life in the home settings. The second empirical goal of this study is to mesure, qualitatively and quantitatively, the level of vigilance of caregivers of people with dementia. Results show subgroups of caregivers with a very high level of vigilance, feeling they must now be available for their relative 24H/24. The reasons often include some patient's safety and risky behaviours, including wandering. The third aim is to explore factors associated with caregivers vigilance. The level of vigilance is associated with patient features (dependance in activities of daily living, home risks) and with characteristics of the caregiver (burden, psychological disorders). Propositions are offered in order to improve safety at home for people with dementia, and to support caregivers identified as psychologically vulnerable
Loschmann, Ronald. "Contribution à l'élaboration d'une méthode d'analyse prévisionnelle de la sécurité de systèmes à risques multiples : application à un site industriel urbain." Aix-Marseille 3, 2002. http://www.theses.fr/2002AIX30050.
The work presented in this thesis is in the scope of organisational safety and knowledge engineering. It contributes to the elaboration of a computerized method for the provisional analysis on safety of Urban Industrial Sites (UIS). The method consists in foreseeing the critical behaviour of UIS, given accident scenarios, by means of an hybrid model simulator. The simulator rests on the UIS and the accident conceptual models, elaborated from ontological studies and the KOD method. The UIS model renders an account of technical, human and organisational aspects. The accident model, inspired from the J. Dumaine model, permits to assess the consequences of the three industrial accident types : the release of toxic substances, fire and explosion. The conceptual models are formalized using UML-RT extended for hybrid systems and implemented with Anylogic. Our experimentations were carried out on the UIS of Marseilles St Menet
Leproust, Sandy. "Inaptitude médicale à la conduite automobile : évaluation de l'opportunité d'un programme de dépistage." Bordeaux 2, 2007. http://www.theses.fr/2007BOR21492.
Assessing fitness to drive of individuals with medical conditions has become a major road safety issue in most industrialized countries. The aim of this thesis was to assess, from a public health point of view, the opportunity of screening for inability to drive. The first step was to examine potential issues to be solved before screening can be implemented and effective : 1/ demonstrating, using insurance data from Quebec, that there might be an opportunity to detect, during usual medical visiits, medical conditions that potentially put older drivers at higher risk of collision ; 2/ adaptating criteria proposed to judge the indication of screening for chronic diseases to the issue of screening in the ontext of road safety. Using this framework allowed us to conclude that screening for inability to drive was not indicated now, given the lack of evidence. This result has justified developing a decision analysis model to assess the potential effectiveness and feasibility of three possible strategies to deal with individuals potentially unfit to drive. From this decision analysis, based on a Markov model, we concluded that, whatever the medical condition, the age when detection starts, and the rythm of screening, a no-screening strategy was always better than a single-test screening strategy. By providing a better understanding of the issue of screening for inability to drive, this work underlines the need for the organization of a task force to develop recommendations for possible actions and researches to answer unresolved emerging questions
Lopes, de Oliveira Loureiro Martins Fernando. "Épidémiologie et prise en charge des blessés médullaires traumatiques : évaluation dans la région centre du Portugal." Dijon, 1998. http://www.theses.fr/1998DIJOMU01.
Reinhardt, Niziolek Sylviane. "IInfluence de la consommation de cannabis sur les accidents de la voie publique : à propos d'une étude realisée au C.H.R. de Metz-Thionville." Nancy 1, 1989. http://www.theses.fr/1989NAN11145.
Nallet, Nathalie. "Profils de personnalité en lien avec les infractions et/ou les accidents de la route : qui sont les stagiaires permis à points ?" Thesis, Lyon 2, 2009. http://www.theses.fr/2009LYO20018/document.
« Is the visible computable » constitutes the leitmotiv of this research. It finds its origin in the practice of a psychologist animator in numerous point recovery courses. The application ground is road safety; part of a public health and worldwide preoccupation. The system ideology is based on the link between offences and accidents. The road education issue questions terms of cognitive treatment and is linked to social and legal preoccupations. But committing offences is a complex and located act, under the influence of several parameters, particulary: age, sex, personality, risk-taking, sensation-seeking, mental representations and behaviour as well as social influence. The literature review allows the link between individual risk factors and traffic violations, or even accidents to be made. A case-control study (n=2014), with 854 course takers describes them and invalidates the idea according to which they would be comparable to Mister Everybody. Course takers are not very sensitive to sanction, as seen during childhood where girls are more sensitive to punishment than boys who are sensitive to encouragement. Therefore an education and prevention system which takes reward into account remains to be imagined in constructing the pedagogy of the courses. The reward principle should not allow anybody, in particular men who represent 90% of the course takers, to stock points in order to reduce them later. Social characteristics, way of life and personality of drivers in the course bring knowledge to construct the courses. Post licence assessments including individual concerns in a collective stake of public health could allow a move from remedy to prevention. The pedagogy must focus even more on way of life and especially living together rather than theoretical content. It has already been shown that the more the accent is put on personality in this type of animation the lower the rate of repetition (DAN 2000). It remains to be seen whether it is support or therapy, and in the latter case whether the length of the point recovery course period as well as an absence of valuation and monitoring is a problem or a utopian ideal
Zargouni, Yadh. "Évaluation de l'efficacité des mesures de sécurité routière." Paris 6, 1986. http://www.theses.fr/1986PA066194.
Dusserre, Gilles. "Contribution à la gestion des interventions lors d'accidents de transport de matières dangereuses." Aix-Marseille 1, 1997. http://www.theses.fr/1997AIX11046.
Nallet, N. "Profils de personnalité en lien avec les infractions et/ou les accidents de la route. Qui sont les stagiaires permis à points ?" Phd thesis, Université Lumière - Lyon II, 2009. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00544915.
Shaikh, al arab Abeer. "Intérêt de la variabilité du rythme cardiaque comme marqueur de risque." Thesis, Lille 2, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012LIL2S005.
The heart rate variability (HRV) has arisen as a promising simple and non invasive biomarker of autonomic nervous system (ANS) function, through its effects on the heart. Multiple studies have shown that the decrease in the HRV is associated usually with poor prognosis. We proposed to further investigate the HRV in other domains of clinical application, including cardiac or extra-cardiac pathologies. In particular, the pathological contexts in which the ANS plays an important role :1-Traffic road accident (RTA) and the risk of development of post traumatic stress disorders (PTSD) in survivors.2-Effect of pain and of epidural analgesia on maternal HRV during childbirth.3-Genetic polymorphisms of beta adrenergic receptors (β-AR) in patients with left ventricular dysfunction and implanted with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) for secondary prevention. At first, our study is the first to show that the temporal analysis of 24-h HRV is not only a predictive factor of the occurrence of PTSD but also its severity among victims of RTA AVP. The variability index was the best predictor of PTSD with the area under the receiver-operating curve for discriminating PTSD at 6 month at 0.92 (95% CI:0.785;1.046). Acut-off at 2.19% yielded a sensitivity of 85.7% and a specificity of 81.8% for PTSD. Positive and negative predictive values were respectively 75% and 90%. At next, we showed that the ANI, which reflects the influence of ventilation on heart rate, allows an objective measure of pain in conscious subjects? At last, we found that patients with the substitutions Arg (instead of Gly) at position 16 and Gln (instead of Glu) at position 27 for β2-AR have a lower HRV value than patients with wild type receptor
Liang, Ci. "Contributions to risk modeling and analysis at railway level crossings." Thesis, Lille 1, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018LIL1I017/document.
This PhD thesis deals with advanced quantitative risk analysis and modeling techniques with the aim to improve the safety of LXs. The contributions of the work reported in this thesis are four-fold:Firstly, we analyze the impact of various factors (transport mode, geographical region and traffic moment) on the risk level at LXs quantitatively. Then, based on the field experiments carried out at 12 LXs throughout France, through quantitative analysis of motorist behavior is performed to acquire the knowledge of motorist violation mechanism causing train-car collisions. Moreover, an advanced statistical accident prediction model which takes into account a variety of impacting factors, i.e., the average daily road traffic, the average daily railway traffic, the annual road accidents, the vertical road profile, the horizontal road alignment, the road width, the crossing length, the railway speed limit and the geographic region, is further developed. This model allows for estimating accident frequency with a considerably high accuracy and has a more appropriate form compared with the existing models pertaining to LX accident prediction. Subsequently, an effective and comprehensive modeling framework based on Bayesian networks (BNs) for risk reasoning is proposed. The performance validation results indicate that our BN risk model has sound estimation performance. In summary, the aforementioned contributions are a direct response to the key knowledge gap about various mechanisms underlying LX accidents. Such contributions pave the way for identifying practical design measures and targeted technical solutions, so as to improve LX safety
Delnieppe, Florence. "Les jeunes et la conduite routière à risque dans les Landes en 1998/." Bordeaux 2, 1999. http://www.theses.fr/1999BOR2M126.
Garcia, Hernandez Elizabeth Antonia. "Analyse de sensibilité globale appliquée à l'évaluation des risques thermiques Kinetic modeling using temperature as an on-line measurement: application to the hydrolysis of acetic anhydride, a revisited kinetic model." Thesis, Normandie, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020NORMIR10.
Thermal runaway is one of the main critical events in chemical industry accidents. To evaluate the risk of such events, thermal risk assessment, must be done. Nevertheless, based on thermal risk assessment, it is not possible to know the most influence model inputs on the thermal risk. Global sensitivity analysis was proposed as a new perspective to evaluate the influence and the interaction of the model inputs on thermal risk parameters. The following parameters were studied: maximum reaction temperature, temperature rise and time to reach the maximum reaction temperature. The method was applied to two reaction systems: a homogeneous phase system with a single reaction, hydrolysis of acetic anhydride, and a two-phase system with several reactions, epoxidation of cottonseed oil
Carette, Pierre. "Développement d’un programme multifactoriel de prévention à domicile des facteurs de risque de chute des personnes âgées : évaluation de l’efficacité du programme et de l’apport de la posturographie." Poitiers, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012POIT1408.
Introduction: Falls have become a major public health problem in industrialized countries with an ageing population. It has been estimated that one third of the population over 65 years experience one or more falls per year. Fall consequences may be traumatic, psychological, economical and/or social. It is well-known the aetiology of falling is multifactorial and falls risk factors are quite numerous. Therefore in other to be effective in prevention it would be logical to develop intervention that would include a multifactorial approach. In this context, it seems also reasonable to include postural control assessment in such program. Aim: To develop a multidisciplinary/multisensory intervention program to prevent falls in elderly subjects. Design, subjects and methods: Randomized intervention with a multidisciplinary/multisensory approach including assessment of postural control vs a control group in 80 elderly subjects living at home. The follow was for twelve months. The main criterion of judgment was the fall. Other criteria were the postural control and the quality of life. Results: After one year, a significant decrease in the number of fallers was detected in the group that followed the intervention program when compared with the control group (from xx to 19. 5% vs xx to 90% of fallers, respectively). Postural control and quality of life also significantly increased in the former group when compared with the latter one. Discussion/Conclusion: Our approach was effective and our multidisciplinary/multisensory and individualized prevention program should now be investigated on a larger scale (e. G. Multicentric study) to determine its global efficiency including economical aspects
Hoang-Thy, Nhac-Vu. "Contribution à une meilleure compréhension du devenir des blessés de la route : évaluation des conséquences à un an dans une cohorte ESPARR." Phd thesis, Université Claude Bernard - Lyon I, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01071748.
Laarabi, Mohamed Haitam. "Optimisation multicritère des itinéraires pour transport des marchandises dangereuses en employant une évaluation en logique floue du risque et la simulation du trafic à base d'agents." Thesis, Paris, ENMP, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014ENMP0074/document.
Everyday thousands of trucks transporting hundreds of thousands of tons of dangerous goods by various modalities and both within and across nations. However, the term “dangerous” indicates an intrinsic adversity that characterize these products, which can manifest in an accident leading to release of a hazardous substance (e.g. radioactive, flammable, explosive etc.). In this situation, the consequences can be lethal to human beings, other living organisms and damage the environment and public/private properties.The importance of dangerous goods boils down to the significant economic benefits that generates. In fact, one cannot deny the contribution of the transport of all fossil fuel derived product, which represents more than 60% of dangerous goods transported in Europe. Eni, the Italian leading petrochemical company, every day operates a fleet of about 1,500 trucks, which performs numerous trips from loading terminals to filling stations. Distribution of petroleum products is a risky activity, and an accident during the transportation may lead to serious consequences.Aware of what is at stake, the division Eni R&M - Logistics Secondary, historically active in Genoa headquarters, is collaborating since 2002 with the DIBRIS department at University of Genoa, and the CRC at Mines ParisTech, with the purpose of studying possible improvements regarding safety in transport of dangerous goods, particularly petroleum products. Over years, this collaboration has led to the development of different technologies and mainly to an information and decision support system. The major component of this system is a platform for monitoring Eni fleet, at the national level, to deliver the products to the distribution points, called the Transport Integrated Platform (TIP). These vehicles are equipped with a device capable of transmitting data stream in real-time using a GPRS modem. The data transmitted can be of different nature and contain information about the state of the vehicle and occurred events during the trip. These data are intended to be received by centralized servers then get processed and stored, in order to support various applications within the TIP.With this in mind, the studies undertaken throughout the thesis are directed towards the development of a proposal to further minimize the risk related to the transportation of dangerous goods. In other words, a trade-off based model for route selection taking into consideration economic and safety factors. The objective is prompted by the need to support existent regulations and safety standards, which does not assure a full warranty against accidents involving dangerous goods.The goal is carried out by considering the existent system as basis for developing an Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) aggregating multiple software platforms. These platforms should allow planners and decision makers to monitor in real-time their fleet, to assess risk and evaluate all possible routes, to simulate and create different scenarios, and to assist at finding solutions to particular problems.Throughout this dissertation, I highlight the motivation for such research work, the related problem statements, and the challenges in dangerous goods transport. I introduce the TIP as the core for the proposed ITS architecture. For simulation purposes, virtual vehicles are injected into the system. The management of the data collection was the subject of technical improvement for more reliability, efficiency and scalability in real-time monitoring of dangerous goods shipment. Finally, I present a systematic explanation of the methodology for route optimization considering both economic and risk criteria. The risk is assessed based on various factors mainly the frequency of accident leading to hazardous substance release and its consequences. Uncertainty quantification in risk assessment is modelled using fuzzy sets theory
Moskal, A. "Epidémiologie du traumatisme routier chez les deux-roues motorisés." Phd thesis, Université Claude Bernard - Lyon I, 2009. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00544028.
Haidar, Mahran. "L'intégration de la sécurité routière dans l'action locale : l'influence de la hiérarchisation du réseau sur le risque routier." Thesis, Paris Est, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014PEST1127.
Planning urban mobility dominated by networks and car travel brings up the question of the effects of network hierarchy on accident risk. This issue has not been addressed very much in the literature. It can be linked to a broader problem which aims to integrate road safety into local action. Road risks depend on the characteristics of individuals who travel in different modes using networks (with more or less risk) that are managed by public authorities. Risk analysis of accident involvement for residents of different hierarchical levels is at the heart of this thesis. It can be approached through spatial and socioeconomic dimensions generated by network hierarchy. Spatial and socioeconomic differentiation of these residents can lead to risk inequalities. The studies carried out as part of this thesis suggest a methodological approach whose main components are epidemiological, statistics and spatial analysis. Investigating the influence of network hierarchy on traffic accident risk made it possible to find the potential link between the spatial and socioeconomic dimensions and traffic risk. It also allowed to target populations that are at high risk in order to motivate elected officials to act in favour of the residents' safety while making them aware of the risk residents are exposed to rather than the accidents of roads they manage. On the other hand, it highlights the policies related to network hierarchy while considering accident risk in order to address the objective of road safety at the earliest possible stage of the decision making process in urban planning projects
Diakite, Aïssata. "Rôle de l'alcool et des substances psychoactives dans les accidents de la voie publique à Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire (Étude ASMA-CI)." Thesis, Lyon 1, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015LYO10064/document.
We implemented a data collecting process including 893 victims who died or were injured following a RTA, and were admitted to the Emergency Room or to the Forensic Institute in Abidjan. This hospital-based data was linked with police data and toxicological testing. The method developed in our laboratory for blood alcohol determination using GC-FID demonstrated a good compliance with analytical performance requirements in terms of repeatability, accuracy, linearity, stability and limit of quantification. Blood alcohol levels found in victims at the time of the RTA were compatible with an excessive alcohol intake. More than 75% of drivers with a positive alcohol test had a blood alcohol concentration greater than 1g/L. Prevalence of alcohol above 0.8g/L reaches 41% in light four-wheel drivers, 35% in two-wheel riders, 17% in pedestrian and 13% in passengers. The prevalence of psychoactive drugs was lower (11%) compared to alcohol and usually associated with blood alcohol level greater than 0.8g/L. The assessment of the risk of serious injury (NISS9+) associated to the level of blood alcohol content suggest that victims showing a moderate blood alcohol level are more at risk to sustain serious injury compared to sober victims (OR = 7.7; IC95% : 2.5 – 24.2). In conclusion, we make some practical proposals to strengthen and for facilitating the application of the current law concerning driving under the influence of alcohol. We also make recommendations for prevention of road traffic injuries in the Ivory Coast
Varet, Florent. "Comportements à risques et infractionnistes chez les automobilistes : relations entre valeurs, normes sociales et différences liées au sexe, au genre et à l'âge." Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019AIXM0266.
Men and young drivers are more often involved in serious and fatal road accidents than women and older drivers. According to the literature, risky and offending behaviours (ROBs) at the wheel could be motivated by the search for a sense of belonging and social status, but also by the affirmation of values relating to competence, power and masculinity. Few studies have proposed to directly test the mediating role of these values and normativity in gender and age differences affecting ROBs. Our work proposes to explore the role of adherence to certain values in the occurrence of ROBs at wheel; (b) to test the mediating role of these values in gender and age differences; (c) to verify the normativity of these behaviours according to gender and age. Six studies were carried out. The main results indicate that (a) adherence to values centred toward the pursuit of a high social status is particularly associated with ROBs; (b) these values partially mediate the observed gender and age differences; (c) ROBs related to speed are more socially valued by men and young drivers, but this phenomenon is not supported by the same motivations for these two populations. The theoretical implications of its results are discussed in terms of empirical relationships between the different models used. Applied perspectives for behaviour change in the field of road safety are also discussed
Bergel-Hayat, Ruth. "La prise en compte de variables explicatives dans les modèles de séries temporelles : application à la demande de transport et au risque routier." Phd thesis, Université Paris-Est, 2008. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00432051.
Palermo, Karine. "Vers un régime unique du risque lié au travail." Phd thesis, Université du Droit et de la Santé - Lille II, 2008. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00405449.
Kubiak, Julien. "La "managérialisation" de la prévention des risques professionnels en entreprise. Enquête parmi les préventeurs de la S.N.C.F." Thesis, Université Paris-Saclay (ComUE), 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016SACLV023.
This thesis deals with the transformations that the prevention of occupational risks underwent in the french national railway company (SNCF) from 1991 to 2012. The research methodology intertwines a long term ethnographical observation (within the framework of a private contract from 2008 to 2010) with a historical research, as well as the analysis of more than 130 interviews. This work allows us to retrace the history of prevention and of the actors of prevention in the company ever since the launching of the first staff safety national policy and until the nomination of the « competent worker » in occupational health and safety (OHS), in july 2012. Through this specific angle, the thesis shows how the « managerialization » of OHS reframes both the content and the meaning of prevention. The concept of « managerialization » refers to the various phasesof a process that benefits from the lack of clarity of the prevention legislation to aim at reaching management goals. The ocupational risks « managerialization » feeds from the opportunities created by the ambiguity of its general principles and by the recent upheaval in the division of labour in the OHS field. Analysing the evolution of the work of the company prevention workers, similarities and constants reveal a task classification that responds to three different types of risks. The shift from occupational health risks prevention to the prevention of risks of a bureaucratic (non-compliance) and social nature (strikes) reflects the evolution of the prevention sector as part of the global evolution of the company, at the edge of railway liberalization
Denat, Tom. "Creation of a Biodiversity Severity Index to evaluate the risks of accidental pollutions in the industry : a multi-criteria sorting approach." Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PSLED013/document.
This thesis is based on two main axes. The first one deals with the creation of an indicator that aims at evaluating the expected severity of the consequences of a scenario of accidental pollution. In order to create this methodology ofevaluation, I chose to use methodological tools from multi-criteria decision aiding. So as to deal with the complexity of this problem, i decided to split it into several sub-problems using a hierarchy of criteria, being mainly inspired by the "value focused thinking approach". In this work, I interacted with several experts in toxicology and in ecology in order to betterdeal with every aspect of this problem.While studying several elicitation methods for the multi-criteria sorting problem, I proposed a new one that I named Dominance Based Monte Carlo algorithm (DBMC), which brings me to the secons axis of this thesis. This elicitation algorithm has two main specificities: being model free and a stochastic functionning. In this thesis, we study its theoretical properties. In particular, we prove that despite its stochastic nature, the result of the Dominance Based Monte Carlo algorithm converges almost surely. We also study its practical performances through a test named k-fold validation and we compared these performances to those of other elicitation algorithms for the sorting problem
Robache, Frédéric. "Évaluation sur simulateur de conduite du comportement humain en situation de pré-crash : application à l'amélioration des airbags." Thesis, Valenciennes, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017VALE0013/document.
Automakers are lawfully required to achieve a minimum level of security which is checked during standardized crash tests. This results in a limited number of scenarios, which do not take individual specificities into account. This dissertation evaluates real human behaviour during the pre-crash phase, by means of a driving simulator. The experiment, integrating an unavoidable accident, studied the behaviour of 76 drivers, of which 40 drivers on a dynamic simulator. Concerning this group, 43 acquisition channels dedicated to drivers were added. From the results, one can retain that the crash can be predicted for half of the drivers through the observation of their behaviour and their interaction with the car. Due to swerving manoeuvres, 25% of the drivers have their forearm just in front of the steering wheel at the time of crash. This situation may compromise the efficiency of the airbags, that is verified experimentally on a static bench, by the deployment of airbags in front of a Hybrid III-50% dummy. The throwing of the arm causes an impact of 120 g to the head. In a second stage, the integration of left upper limbs from PMHS reveals that the situation is likely to generate fractures in the forearm. A numerical model has been designed to estimate the consequences of the atypical position during a frontal crash at 50km/h. The head acceleration reaches 270 g, synonymous with high lesion risks. Finally, a technological modification of the airbags is proposed to reduce this risk. The assumption is made that the use of remote sensors technologies can allow an early detection of the crash and therefore slower triggering of airbags. Tested experimentally and then numerically, this technical evolution reduces the violence of the impact to respect the injury criteria
Oueidat, Dahlia. "Apport de la modélisation et de la simulation à l'analyse des risques et la prévention des accidents d'un site de stockage de GPL." Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016PSLEM023/document.
System thinking concepts and simulation tools are used to model the risk prevention plan and operational modes designed to enforce safety constraints at a French liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) storage and distribution facility. In France, such facilities are classified and the subject of special legislation and safety regulations. Their supervision is the responsibility of a control and regulatory body. A technological risk and prevention plan is provided, where all the dangerous phenomena likely to occur in addition to the safety control measures are listed in the safety report. Safety is therefore addressed through rules, and control mechanisms ensure that the system complies with safety constraints. Taking this facility as a case study, we use the STAMP theoretical framework together with AnyLogic simulation software to model technical elements and human and organizational behavior. We simulate how the system evolves over time and the strategies that are deployed in a loss of control scenario. The aim is to assess whether the prescribed safety program covers all of the system's phases; namely operations and audits. The results enrich other research that focuses on the contribution of system dynamics to risk analysis and accident prevention
Saboune, Jamal. "Développement d'un système passif de suivi 3D du mouvement humain par filtrage particulaire." Phd thesis, Troyes, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008TROY0002.
The main idea behind the PARAChute project is to reduce the number of falls in the elderly by preventing them. This thesis work which is a part of this project aims to develop a new non intrusive human gait analysis system which would be a component of a fall risk evaluation system. Many methods have been used to evaluate dynamic equilibrium of a person while walking. By studying these methods, we were able to identify some gait parameters which are pertinent for fall risk detection. All these methods previously used, are based on clinical tests, or on using wearable sensors. Thus, we opted to develop a new approach based on a completer marker less 3D human motion capture system. The new system we created uses video feeds, a virtual 3d body model and a novel particle filtering algorithm we developed. This algorithm reorganizes the model’s configurations search space in a efficient, optimal and deterministic way. In order to reduce the complexity of this algorithm, we also developed a factorized version of it, using a dynamic Bayesian network. In terms of quality of 3D reconstruction, the results of our method are satisfactory
Treibich, Carole. "Four Essays on the Economics of Road Risks in India." Paris, EHESS, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014EHES0063.
My dissertation aims at understanding the environmental and behavioral determinants of road traffic accidents in a developing country, India. To do so, a panel database on Indian states over a twelve year period has been built. A household survey among drivers and passengers of motorbikes has been also implemented in Delhi in 2011, this to overcome the absence of individual data on road habits. Chapter 1 is a macroeconomic study on the Indian subcontinent. The results found suggest that India should invest more particularly in road infrastructures, in the strict implementation of road rules and in education programs on road related risks. Given that 70% of motorized vehicles are two-wheelers in India, I decided to focus the rest of my analysis on this subgroup. Chapter 2 provides a presentation of the survey. I study in Chapter 3 the adequate measurement of risk aversion in the context of a developing country. I explore the impact of questions and interviewers on the elicited individuals' preferences towards risk. In Chapter 4, a theoretical model on the influence of risk aversion on prevention activities is first adapted to the road safety context. When looking at the data, we found that more risk averse drivers are more likely to wear a helmet while there is no significant effect on choice of speed. As for passengers, they seem to adapt their helmet use to their environment and in particular to their driver's skills. In Chapter 5, I show that previous experiences of road crash and police stop impact subjective expectations. Fear of injuries lead to a greater use of helmet on long distance journeys, while police threat rather determines the helmet use on short trips
Wang, Bin. "Observateurs d'état pour le diagnostic de comportement dynamique de véhicules automobiles en environnement réel de conduite." Phd thesis, Université de Technologie de Compiègne, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01016796.
Rangra, Subeer. "Performance shaping factor based human reliability assessment using valuation-based systems : application to railway operations." Thesis, Compiègne, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017COMP2375/document.
Humans are and remain one of the critical constituents of modern transport operations. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods provide a multi-disciplinary approach: systems engineering and cognitive science methods to evaluate the interaction between humans and the system. This thesis proposes a novel HRA methodology acronymed PRELUDE (Performance shaping factor based human REliability assessment using vaLUation-baseD systEms). Performance shaping factors (PSFs) are used to characterize a dangerous operational context. The proposed framework of Valuation-based System (VBS) and belief functions theory (BFT) uses mathematical rules to formalize the use of expert data and construction of a human reliability model capable of representing all kinds of uncertainty. PRELUDE is able to predict the human error probability given a context, and also provide a formal feedback to reduce the said probability. The second part of this work demonstrates the feasibility of PRELUDE with empirical data from simulators. A protocol to obtain data, a transformation and data analysis method is presented. An experimental simulator campaign is carried out to illustrate the proposition. Thus, PRELUDE is able to integrate data from multiple sources (empirical and expert) and types (objective and subjective). This thesis, hence address the problem of human error analysis, taking into account the evolution of the HRA domain over the years by proposing a novel HRA methodology. It also keeps the rail industry’s usability in mind, providing a quantitative results which can easily be integrated with traditional risk analyses. In an increasingly complex and demanding world, PRELUDE will provide rail operators and regulatory authorities a method to ensure human interaction-related risk is understood and managed appropriately in its context