Dissertations / Theses on the topic '960301 Climate Change Adaptation Measures'

Doutoramento em Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente
As cidades, áreas que albergam cerca de 70% da população europeia, enfrentam hoje um conjunto de desafios associados a alterações do metabolismo urbano, que num contexto de alteração climática (AC), afectam o microclima urbano e a qualidade do ar (QA). Compreender a interação entre as AC, qualidade do ar e fluxos urbanos de calor (FUC) é um tópico de investigação emergente, reconhecido como área de interesse para a definição e implementação de políticas locais. O principal objetivo do presente trabalho é promover uma avaliação integrada das interações entre medidas de resiliência urbana e as AC, e respectiva influência no microclima urbano, QA e FUC, tendo como caso de estudo a cidade do Porto (Portugal). Pretende-se ainda impulsionar o desempenho dos modelos numéricos para que estes representem realisticamente os fenómenos físicos que ocorrem nas áreas urbanas. Para atingir este objetivo, o sistema de modelos WRF-SUEWS foi aplicado para a área de estudo para avaliar a influência de diferentes níveis de área urbanizada nas trocas de calor entre a superficie e a atmosfera. O modelo foi validado mediante a comparação dos seus resultados com dados medidos obtidos em campanhas de monitorização de fluxos. A influência das variáveis meteorológicas nos FUC, e a forma como estas, por sua vez, são influenciadas pela superfície urbana foi também avaliada. Para tal, o sistema WRF-SUEWS foi aplicado para 1-ano representativo de um período de clima presente (1986-2005) e de clima futuro de médio prazo (2046-2065). O cenário climático futuro foi projetado tendo por base o cenário RCP8.5. Esta análise permitiu quantificar e mapear os efeitos das AC nos FUC na cidade do Porto. Face à necessidade corrente de aumentar a resiliência urbana a futuros eventos meteorológicos extremos (e.g. ondas de calor), o sistema WRF-SUEWS foi ainda aplicado (com uma resolução espacial de 200 m) para avaliar a influência de medidas de resiliência nos FUC. Conhecendo a importância da morfologia urbana para as características do seu próprio clima, um conjunto de parameterizações urbanas (LSM, SUEWS e UCM) foram analisados para área de estudo, por forma a obter uma representação realista das características urbanas no modelo WRF e, consequentemente, obter um melhor desempenho na modelação da QA à escala local. Os resultados revelaram que o modelo UCM é a parameterização urbana que melhor representa os fluxos turbulentos de calor, a temperatura e velocidade do vento à superfície. Como resultado, o modelo CFD VADIS, inicializado pelo modelo WRF-UCM, foi aplicado com uma elevada resolução espacial (3 m) a um bairro típico da cidade do Porto. As simulações realizadas permitiram caracterizar o estado atual da QA na área de estudo, bem como avaliar a influência de diferentes medidas de resiliência nos padrões de velocidade do vento e na concentração de poluentes atmosféricos (PM10, NOX, CO e CO2). Este trabalho constitui uma ferramenta científica inovadora no que diz respeito ao conhecimento dos processos físicos que ocorrem à escala urbana, proporcionando uma visão integradora entre AC, QA e FUC. Estes resultados são relevantes para o apoio à decisão política do que respeita à implementação de estratégias que permitam aumentar a resiliência urbana, nas suas diversas vertentes, a um clima em mudança
Cities, home of about 70% of the European population, are facing important challenges related to changes in urban structure and its metabolism, and to pressures induced by climate change (CC) effects, which are affecting urban microclimate and air quality. The better understanding of the interactions between CC, air quality and urban surface energy balance (USEB) is an emerging priority for research and policy. The main objective of the current study is to provide an integrated assessment of the interaction between resilience measures and CC effects, and its influence on the urban microclimate and air quality as well as on the USEB, having as case study the city of Porto (Portugal). The ultimate goal is to improve the accuracy of numerical modelling to better represent the physical processes occurring in urban areas. For this purpose, the relevant parameters to both USEB and air quality were analysed. The WRF-SUEWS modelling setup was applied to the study area to assess the influence of different levels of urbanization on the surface-atmosphere exchanges. To validate the modelling setup, the results were compared with measurements carried out on field campaigns. The way of how the meteorological variables affect the USEB and how, in turn, these variables are themselves affected by urban surface was also assessed. The modelling setup was applied for 1-year period statistically representative of a present (1986-2005) and medium-term future (2046-2065) climate. The climate projection was produced under the RCP8.5 scenario. This analysis gives insights of how the urban-surface exchanges will be affected by CC, allowing the mapping of the FUC over the study area. As result of the need of increase cities resilience to future extreme weather events (e.g. heat waves), the WRF-SUEWS model (with a spatial resolution of 200 m), was applied to Porto city to evaluate the influence of a set of resilience measures on the USEB. Knowing the importance of urban surfaces to its own microclimate, a set of urban parameterization schemes (LSM, SUEWS and UCM) were analysed for the study area, to achieve a more accurate representation of urban features in the WRF model and, in consequence, to improve the capability of air quality modelling at urban/local scale. The results point out that the UCM is the urban parameterization that provides a more realistic representation of the turbulent energy fluxes and the near-surface air temperatures and wind speed. As result, a CFD modelling (VADIS), forced by WRF-UCM, was used to provide a set of numerical simulations with a high spatial resolution (3 m) over a typical neighbourhood in the Porto city. These simulations allow the characterization of the current air quality status over the study area, as well as the assessment of the influence of different resilience measures in the wind flow and air pollutants dispersion (PM10, NOX, CO and CO2). Overall, this research work is a step forward in understanding the physics of urban environments, providing also a linkage between CC, air quality and USEB. These findings are highly advantageous to support policy makers and stakeholders helping them to choose the best strategies to mitigate extreme weather events and air pollution episodes and so increase cities resilience to a future climate.

In most of the developing countries, small scale farmers (SSFs) are usually the primary agricultural producers of staple crop. Furthermore, they highly depend on rainfall for their rain-fed agricultural production. SSFs have limited capacity to adapt to extreme climate variability, thus rendering them to be among the most vulnerable to climate change. Some recent studies show that agricultural production and productivity is being negatively impacted by climate change and variability in most parts of Southern Africa. This is likely to continue for decades into the future, unless corrective or adaptation measures are implemented to reduce the impact on agriculture. Conservation Agriculture (CA) is one of the climate change and weather variability adaptation measures being promoted for SSFs in Kalomo District of Zambia. CA is not only being promoted to improve production and productivity for food security for the majority rural population, but also as an adaptation measure for sustainable agricultural production. The present study analysed the CA practices being promoted in Kalomo district of southern Zambia and the associated challenges in the management and implementation, as well as, how best these challenges can be addressed. Semi-structured interviews and literature review were used as methodologies of data collection for the study. The findings of the study indicate that among the three principles of CA, minimum tillage is mostly practiced compared to crop rotation and retention of crop residue. Within minimum tillage, ripping was found to be practiced on a larger scale compared to making basins. The major challenges include planning and human resource development, financial resource and policy constraints and cultural barriers to adoption of CA.

The thesis work has studied mainly autonomous adaptation measures used by local communities against natural hazards. In course of time the climate change will make these hazards frequent and severe challenging peoples capacity to cope with them. The work is conducted as a case study in nine coastal agro-ecological zones of Bangladesh. Coastal zones have socio-economical potential but are at the same time vulnerable to destructive effects of climate change in agriculture, human settlements, health, ecosystem and security. In collaboration with the Department of Environmental sciences in Jahangirnagar University, Bangladesh, adaptation measures practiced at study areas have been gathered and then evaluated using a rated set of eleven criteria which has been derived from principles of sustainable adaptation. As a result of this study several adaptation measures show high sustainability, some medium but most of them with a low sustainability in terms of effectiveness, efficiency and implementation ability. The conclusion is to enhance local adaptive capacity in terms of its hazards context and to modify adaptation measures to be more sustainable.

Approaches to address climate change as part of a larger strategy where climate benefitsare only a part of a larger set of other benefits, like sustainable development benefits, arelimited to mitigation. The need for “[a] structured but flexible approach to adaptation”sought by developing countries requires a similar consideration in order to realize whatelements of adaptation could be ‘structured’ and what elements ‘flexible.’ Applyingprogram theory, this work explores ways in which adaptation to climate change mayemerge as a consequence of development policies. This is applied to the experience ofagriculture in Mozambique to model policy implementation in response to the 2007 foodcrisis using concepts from programme and strategy theory to examine how a chain ofactivities obtain results not initially targeted, exemplifying how adaptation to climatechange can emerge as a co-benefit of development polices. The case study indicates thatadaptation and development interact better when policies are designed to integratedifferent needs and are sustained not just by those directly implementing them, and thatgenerating adaptation co-benefits will be different according to the scales and level inwhich policies apply. The study concludes with suggestions for multilevel mechanismfor integrating adaptation through policy instruments containing policies that throughstrategic rearrangement can achieve different results. Future research should furtherconsider the implications of applying current international adaptation instruments towider portfolios to assess the possibilities of creating a mechanism for mainstreamingadaptation within the current political constrains.

This publication summarizes the main results of the INCAProject during 2011/2012 and the contributions to the according INCA-Summer-School, which took place from September 19th – September 27th 2012 at the Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Institute of International Forestry and Forest Products, Professorship of Tropical Forestry in Tharandt, Germany.:AN INTERNATIONAL NETWORK ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON SMALL FARMERS IN THE TROPICAL ANDES – GLOBAL CONVENTIONS FROM A LOCAL PERSPECTIVE S. 1 1. Introduction S. 2 2. The concept of an International Network on Climate Change S. 5 3. The outlook on an endogenous approach S. 9 4. References S. 12 ADAPTATION MEASURES S. 17 Adaptation strategies of Andean campesinos to cope with the climatic variability – Examples from the Mantaro Valley, Peru S. 18 A socio-economic analysis of livelihood strategies in rural forest depending communities in lowland Bolivia under a changing climate S. 20 Who knows what and why? Intra-cultural knowledge variation of agroforestry plants S. 21 Traditional ecological knowledge, resilience and food security: local strategies in three communities in the Yungas ecosystem, La Paz, Bolivia S. 22 Influence of agroforestry systems in risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Peruvian Andes S. 24 Assessing adaptation to climate change: Environmental and socio-economic changes in the Andes of Bolivia S. 26 Adaptive capacity of rural communities to climate change in the bio-cultural system of the Andes, Bolivia S. 28 Socio-economic analysis of farm-forestry systems: Case studies from Achamayo and Palcazu watersheds, Peruvian Andes S. 29 MONITORING AND MODELING LAND USE CHANGE S.33 Modeling and forecast of changes in land-use and land-cover caused by climate change in the Peruvian Andes S. 34 Land-use and land-cover change in Cotapata National Park – Natural integrated management area, Bolivia S. 37 Monitoring and analyzing land-use / land-cover changes using remote sensing and GIS in the Achamayo and Shullcas region, Peruvian Andes S. 39 Climate change and land-use in the Bolivian Andes S. 41 Modeling the adaptation strategies of farmers of the Andes against climate change and the related development of land-use / land-cover S. 43 MANAGEMENT OF A CHANGING LANDSCAPE S. 45 Evaluating the strategies for the management of biophysical resources in farm communities of the Mantaro Valley, Central Andes of Peru S. 46 Participative planning, monitoring and evaluation system in bio-cultural local communities S. 50 The monitoring program in Apolobamba protected area S. 51 Progress in the diagnosis of biodiversity vulnerability to climate change in Bolivia S. 52 Sectoral program of adaptation to climate change of biodiversity and ecosystems S. 53 DEFORESTATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE S. 55 Possible interactions between climate projections and deforestation scenarios in Bolivia S. 56 Transport and possible climate impacts of aerosols from biomass burning from the Amazon to the Bolivian Andes S. 56 Transboundary air pollution in southern Amazon of Peru S. 57 SUMMARY S. 59 Challenges presented by climate change in the Andean region: Land-use cover change and adaptive response of small farmers S. 60 List of participants and additional information S. 62

Climate change effects are getting more evident year by year. Athens is specially affected by climate change related shocks, especially by poor air quality, flooding and heat waves. Every year climate shocks threatens and worsens the situation in the city. The municipality of Athens, together with the European Investment Bank and EQO-NIXUS (consulting company) have undertaken a project in order to increase the resilience and the mitigation and adaptation measures of the city, taking as case study 5 public buildings located in different areas of the centre of the city. This project is in line with the Athens Resilience Strategy drawn by the Municipality of Athens in order to integrate new ways to prepare and protect the city from future shocks and stresses. This study aims to investigate and propose mitigation and adaptation measures that could be potentially applied into the 5 selected public buildings in order to improve the energy efficiency and the resilience towards heat waves, flooding and pollution of the air. A literature review study has been performed in order to look for good practices worldwide in terms of energy efficiency and climate mitigation and adaptation in order to find the best measures that could be applied in the 5 selected buildings. Finally, a multi-criteria decision analysis has been executed to prioritise which measures result to be more relevant for each specific building. The study shows that, in overall, energy efficiency and raise of public awareness are the most relevant measures that can be potentially applied in the buildings in order to tackle the climate shocks that threatens Athens. Finally, if the measures are applied into the buildings and the resilience and energy efficiency measures are improved, this study could be replicated to other buildings of Athens in order to achieve the 2030 strategy plan set by the municipality of Athens.
Effekterna av klimatförändringen blir alltmer tydliga. Greklands huvudstad Aten påverkas exempelvis av försämrad luftkvalitet, översvämningar och värmeböljor och extrema klimatrelaterade händelser förvärrar situationen i staden. Atens kommun har tillsammans med Europeiska investeringsbanken och EQO-NIXUS (ett privat konsultföretag) genomfört ett projekt för att öka motståndskraften mot klimatförändringens effekter, genom anpassningsåtgärder, där fem offentliga byggnader i olika delar av Atens centrum studeras. Projektet är relaterat till Atens resiliensstrategi som handlar om hur staden ska integrera nya sätt förbereda och skydda staden och dess invånare från framtida extrema händelser och påfrestningar. Denna studie syftar till att undersöka och föreslå anpassningsåtgärder som potentiellt kan tillämpas i de fem olika offentliga byggnaderna för att förbättra energieffektiviteten och resiliensen mot värmeböljor, översvämningar och luftföroreningar. En litteraturstudie har genomförts för att identifiera globala, goda exempel när det gäller energieffektivitet och anpassning till ett förändrat klimat som potentiellt kan tillämpas i de fem byggnaderna. Slutligen har en multikriterieanalys med flera kriterier genomförts för att prioritera vilka åtgärder som är mest relevanta för varje specifik byggnad. Studien visar att energieffektivitet och ökning av allmänhetens medvetenhet totalt sett är de mest relevanta åtgärderna som potentiellt kan tillämpas i byggnaderna för att hantera klimatförändringar. Slutligen, om dessa åtgärder tillämpas och resiliensen och energieffektivitetsåtgärderna förbättras, skulle denna studie kunna vara relevant även för andra byggnader i Aten och därmed bidra till uppfyllelsen av stadens 2030-strategi.

A key challenge for sustainable urban development is to deal with the effects of climate change. To approach this issue, ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA), i.e. the use of ecosystem services for climate adaptation, has been promoted by both scholars and practitioners. In this context, the thesis addresses two research questions: how EbA is included in strategic climate adaptation planning and how EbA is implemented in practice. To tackle these topics, the study uses a multiple case study design, where the process from strategic planning to its implementation is investigated in two Northern European cities: Copenhagen and Malmö. To collect in-depth data, qualitative methods were used: a document analysis and semi-structured interviews with planning officials were conducted. The findings of the study show that there is a high degree of awareness of the different EbA measures, their potential role to address climate change effects and their co-benefits in climate adaptation plans. However, the practical implementation of the plans was executed only at a project-based scale to address some climate change impacts rather than holistically and on a regional level. The main EbA measure that was used was the expansion and transformation of public green space. The thesis concludes that a more comprehensive approach concerning the use of EbA is needed and further mainstreaming is highly required.
En viktig utmaning för hållbar stadsutveckling är att adressera effekterna av de stundande klimatförändringar. För att ta sig an denna fråga har användningen av ekosystembaserad anpassning (EbA), dvs. användningen av ekosystemtjänster för klimatanpassning, främjats av både forskare och utövare. I detta sammanhang behandlar studien två forskningsfrågor: hur EbA ingår i strategisk klimatanpassningsplanering och hur EbA implementeras i praktiken. Studien innehåller en fallstudie- design, där processen från strategisk planering till dess genomförande undersöks i två nordeuropeiska städer: Köpenhamn och Malmö. För att samla in data användes två kvalitativa metoder: en dokumentanalys och semistrukturerade intervjuer med tjänstepersoner på kommuner. Resultaten från studien visar att det finns en hög grad av medvetenhet om de olika EbA åtgärderna, deras potentiella roll för att hantera klimatförändringseffekter och deras synergier i klimatanpassningsplaner. Det praktiska genomförandet av planerna utfördes endast i en projektbaserad skala för att ta med vissa klimatförändringseffekter snarare än på ett holistiskt vis och på en större regional nivå. Den viktigaste EbA åtgärden som användes var utbyggnaden eller omvandlingen av de offentliga grönytorna. Sammanfattningsvis har studien visat på att det finns behov av ett mer heltäckande tillvägagångssätt och ytterligare integrering beträffande användandet av EbA krävs.

[EN] Adaptation to the multiple facets of global change challenges the conventional means of sustainably planning and managing water resources at the river basin scale. Numerous demand or supply management options are available, from which adaptation measures need to be selected in a context of high uncertainty of future conditions. Given the interdependency of water users, agreements need to be found at the local level to implement the most effective adaptation measures. Therefore, this thesis develops an approach combining economics and water resources engineering to select a cost-effective programme of adaptation measures in the context of climate change uncertainty, and to define an equitable allocation of the cost of the adaptation plan between the stakeholders involved. A framework is developed to integrate inputs from the two main approaches commonly used to plan for adaptation. The first, referred to as "top-down", consists of a modelling chain going from global greenhouse gases emission scenarios to local hydrological models used to assess the impact of climate change on water resources. Conversely, the second approach, called "bottom-up", starts from assessing vulnerability at the local level to then identify adaptation measures used to face an uncertain future. Outcomes from these two approaches are integrated to select a cost-effective combination of adaptation measures through a least-cost optimization model developed at the river basin scale. The model is then used to investigate the trade-offs between different planning objectives defined in terms of environmental flow requirements, irrigated agriculture development, and the cost of the programme of measures. The performances of a programme of measures are finally assessed under different climate projections to identify robust and least-regret adaptation measures. The issue of allocating the cost of the adaptation plan is considered through two complementary perspectives. The outcome of a negotiation process between the stakeholders is modelled through the implementation of cooperative game theory to define cost allocation scenarios. These results are compared with cost allocation rules based on social justice principles to provide contrasted insights into a negotiation process. This innovative framework has been applied in a Mediterranean case study in the Orb River basin (France). Mid-term climate projections, downscaled from 9 General Climate Models, are used to assess the uncertainty associated with climate projections. Demand evolution scenarios have been developed to project agricultural and urban water demands on the 2030 time horizon. The least-cost river basin optimization model developed in GAMS allows the cost-effective selection of a programme of measures from a catalogue of 462 supply and demand management measures. Nine cost allocation scenarios based on different social justice principles have been discussed through face-to-face semi-structured interviews with 15 key informants and compared with solution concepts from cooperative game theory for a 3-player game defined at the river basin scale. The interdisciplinary framework developed in this thesis combines economics and water resources engineering methods, establishing a promising means of bridging the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches and supporting the creation of cost-effective and equitable adaptation plans at the local level.
[ES] La adaptación a los múltiples aspectos del cambio global supone un reto para los enfoques convencionales de planificación y gestión sostenible de los recursos hídricos a escala de cuenca. Numerosas opciones de gestión de la demanda o de la oferta están disponibles, de entre las cuales es necesario seleccionar medidas de adaptación en un contexto de elevada incertidumbre sobre las condiciones futuras. Dadas las interdependencias existentes entre los usuarios del agua a nivel local, hace falta buscar acuerdos a escala de cuenca para implementar las medidas de adaptación más eficaces. Por este motivo, esta tesis desarrolla una metodología que, combinando economía e ingeniería de los recursos hídricos, busca seleccionar un programa de medidas coste-eficaz frente a las incertidumbres del cambio climático, y asimismo definir un reparto justo del coste de la adaptación entre los actores implicados. El marco metodológico ha sido desarrollado para integrar contribuciones de los dos principales enfoques utilizados para la planificación de la adaptación. El primero, denominado descendente ("top-down"), consiste en una cadena de modelación que va desde los escenarios de emisiones de gases efecto invernadero a nivel global hasta los modelos hidrológicos utilizados a nivel local para evaluar así el impacto del cambio climático sobre los recursos hídricos. Por el contrario, el segundo enfoque denominado ascendente ("bottom-up") empieza por evaluar la vulnerabilidad del sistema a nivel local para después identificar medidas de adaptación frente a un futuro incierto. Los resultados de los métodos mencionados previamente se han integrado con el fin de seleccionar una combinación coste-eficaz de medidas de adaptación a través de un modelo de optimización a menor coste a escala de cuenca. El modelo se utiliza para investigar las soluciones de compromiso ("trade-offs") entre diversos objetivos de planificación como son los caudales ecológicos necesarios, el desarrollo del regadío y el coste del programa de medidas. Seguidamente, se han evaluado los programas de adaptación frente a varias condiciones climáticas para definir así un programa de medidas robusto y de arrepentimiento mínimo frente al cambio climático. En la última parte se aborda el problema del reparto justo de los costes del plan de adaptación, entendiendo que esto es una manera de favorecer su implementación. Para ello, se han modelado los resultados de un proceso de negociación entre los diferentes actores mediante escenarios de reparto basados en la teoría de juegos cooperativos. Posteriormente, se han comparado estos resultados con otras reglas de reparto de costes basadas en principios de justicia social, proporcionando así un punto de vista diferente al proceso de negociación. Este novedoso enfoque ha sido aplicado a una cuenca mediterránea, la cuenca del rio Orb (Francia). Para ello, se han empleado proyecciones climáticas a medio-plazo de datos reescalados de 9 Modelos de Circulación Global. Además, se han desarrollado escenarios de evolución de la demanda en los sectores urbano y agrícola para el horizonte de planificación de 2030. El modelo de optimización a menor coste a escala de cuenca desarrollado en GAMS permite seleccionar un programa de medidas, de entre las 462 medidas de gestión de la oferta o de la demanda. Nueve escenarios de reparto de costes basados en diferentes principios de justicia social han sido debatidos con informantes clave mediante entrevistas y comparados con conceptos de solución de la teoría de juegos cooperativos, considerando un juego de 3 jugadores a escala de cuenca. El marco interdisciplinario desarrollado durante esta tesis combina métodos de economía y de ingeniería de los recursos hídricos de manera prometedora y permite integrar los enfoques "top-down" y "bottom-up", contribuyendo a definir un plan de adaptación coste-eficaz y justo a nivel local.
[CAT] L'adaptació als múltiples aspectes del canvi global implica un repte per als enfocaments convencionals de planificació i gestió sostenible dels recursos hídrics a escala de conca. Existeixen nombroses opcions de gestió de la demanda y de la oferta. De entre elles, cal seleccionar mesures d'adaptació en un context d'incertesa elevada sobre les condicions futures. Donades les interaccions entre els usuaris de l'aigua a nivell local, és necessari buscar acords a escala de conca per tal d'implementar les mesures d'adaptació més eficaces. Per aquest motiu, la tesi desenvolupa una metodologia que, mitjançant la combinació d'economia i enginyeria dels recursos hídrics, siga adient per seleccionar un programa de mesures cost-eficaç per a fer front a les incerteses del canvi climàtic i, a més a més, definir un repartiment just del cost d'adaptació entre els actors implicats. El marc metodològic ha estat desenvolupat amb el fi de permetre integrar contribucions del principals enfocaments que s'utilitzen per a la planificació de l'adaptació. El primer, que es denomina descendent ("top-down"), consisteix a una cadena de modelació que va des dels escenaris d'emissions de gas d'efecte hivernacle a nivell global fins als models hidrològics a nivell local per avaluar l'impacte del canvi climàtic sobre els recursos hídrics. Per contra, el segon enfocament, que es denomina ascendent ("bottom-up"), comença per avaluar la vulnerabilitat del sistema a nivell local per a tot seguit identificar mesures d'adaptació de cara a un futur incert. Els resultats del mètodes esmentats prèviament, s'han integrat per a seleccionar una combinació de mesures d'adaptació cost-eficaç mitjançant un model d'optimització a menor cost a escala de conca. El model s'utilitza per investigar les solucions de compromís ("trade-offs") entre els diversos objectius de planificació, com són els cabals ecològics necessaris, el desenvolupament del regadiu i el cost del programa de mesures. A continuació, s'avaluen els programes d'adaptació per a varies condicions climàtiques amb el fi de definir un programa de mesures robust i de penediment mínim per a fer front al canvi climàtic. En la darrera part, s'escomet el problema del repartiment just dels costs del pla d'adaptació, considerant que això és una manera de facilitar la implementació del pla. En conseqüència, els resultats d'un procés de negociació entre els diferents actors han estat modelats mitjançant escenaris de repartiment basats en la teoria de jocs cooperatius. Tot seguit, els resultats s'han comparat amb altres regles de repartiment de costos basades en principis de justícia social. Això ha proporcionat un punt de vista diferent al procés de negociació. Aquest enfocament innovador s'ha aplicat a una conca mediterrània, la conca del riu Orb (França). Amb aquesta finalitat s'han utilitzat projeccions climàtiques a mig termini de dades reescalades de 9 Models de Circulació Global (MCG). A més a més, s'han desenvolupat escenaris d'evolució de la demanada en els sectors agrícola i urbà per a l'horitzó de planificació de 2030. El model d'optimització a menor cost a escala de conca desenvolupat en GAMS permet seleccionar un programa de mesures, de entre les 462 mesures de gestió de la oferta o de la demanda. Els nou escenaris de repartiment de costs han estat debatuts amb informants clau, mitjançant entrevistes, i comparats amb conceptes de solució de la teoria de jocs cooperatius, considerant un joc de 3 jugadors a escala de conca. El marc interdisciplinari desenvolupat al llarg de la tesi combina mètodes d'economia i d'enginyeria dels recursos hídrics de manera prometedora i permet la integració d'enfocaments "top-down" i "bottom-up", fet que contribueix a definir un pla d'adaptació cost-eficaç i just a escala local.
Girard, CDP. (2015). Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design a cost-effective and equitable programme of measures for adaptation of a river basin to global change [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/59461
TESIS
Premiado

In this work, I dealt with the repercussion of drought on agriculture and land in the cadastral Jinošov. For this area, I analyzed the erosion and ratio of outflow. I also conducted a proposal of adaptation measures against erosion and water retention in the area. In conclusion, I analyzed withholding data and assessed the retention before and after the proposal of adaptation measures. The result of my work is finding that rainfall is inadequate and largely come out of the growing season, that despite all the measures fail to create on the necessary retention for the correct functioning of the landscape. Therefore it is necessary to solve water supply from other areas where is sufficient supply of water.

Les àrees costaneres han de fer front als riscos creixents relacionats amb la PNM. El Delta de l'Ebre és un ecosistema representatiu de la vulnerabilitat de les zones costaneres a la PNM. La producció d’arròs és la principal activitat econòmica, ocupant un 65 % de la superfície total, és sensible a la PNM, i l'augment de la salinitat del sòl, el factor més limitat de la producció. Per tant, cal analitzar els impactes de la PNM, és a dir, la inundació i la salinització del sòl, i desenvolupar les mesures d'adaptació adequades. Vam construir models espacials (1 × 1 m) sobre les zones més vulnerables a la inundació, pèrdua de sediments, salinitat del sòl i pèrdua de producció d'arròs. Mitjançant l’acoblament de dades SIG amb GLMz, i posteriorment, els models es van executar en diferents escenaris previstos per l'IPCC (AR5) fins a l’any 2100. També vam avaluar la viabilitat d'una mesura d'adaptació innovadora basada en la natura, que consisteix a recuperar els sediments atrapats en els embassaments de la conca a la plana deltaica. L'elevació (inversament) va ser la variable més important a l'hora d'explicar la variació en la salinitat del sòl, els models van predir una disminució de l'índex de producció d'arròs normalitzat (RPI) seguint el gradient d'elevació del delta. Depenent de l'escenari considerat, els models prediuen una reducció del RPI al 2010 del 62.1% al 54,6% per l’any 2100, en l'escenari més conservador (PNM = 0.53 m); i fins al 33.8% per al pitjor dels escenari considerat (PNM = 1.8 m), amb una disminució dels beneficis de fins a 300 € per hectàrea. Per als mateixos escenaris, la superfície d’arrossars inundada va ser del 36-90 %, i la pèrdua de sediment va ser de entre 122 i 418 milions de tones. La mesura d'adaptació proposada, basada en la natura, va tenir un efecte positiu en la producció d'arròs i es pot considerar una opció de gestió innovadora per mantenir els serveis ecosistèmics del Delta de l'Ebre, tot i la PNM. Els nostres models es poden aplicar a altres àrees deltaiques de tot el món, ajudant els agricultors i els ‘stakeholders’ a identificar àrees vulnerables als efectes de la PNM així com a desenvolupar plans de gestió.
Las zonas costeras tienen que hacer frente a los crecientes riesgos relacionados con la subida del nivel del mar (SLR). El Delta del Ebro es un valioso ecosistema representativo de la vulnerabilidad de las zonas costeras al SLR. La producción de arroz, la principal actividad económica de la zona, ocupa ca. el 65% de la superficie total, y es sensible a la SLR, y al aumento de la salinidad del suelo el factor más limitante en el cultivo del arroz. Por tanto, es necesario analizar los impactos de la SLR, es decir, la inundaciones y la salinización del suelo, y desarrollar medidas de adaptación apropiadas. Hemos construido modelos espaciales (1 × 1 m) en áreas propensas a inundación, pérdida de sedimentos, salinización del suelo y pérdida de producción de arroz. Se acoplaron datos de GIS con GLMz y los modelos se realizaron bajo diferentes escenarios predichos por el IPCC (AR5) hasta 2100. También evaluamos la viabilidad de una medida innovadora de adaptación basada en la naturaleza que consiste en reintroducir sedimentos atrapados en embalses de bajo Ebro a la llanura deltaica. La elevación (inversamente relacionada a la salinidad del suelo) fue la variable más importante para explicar la salinidad del suelo, por lo que los modelos predijeron una disminución en el Índice de Producción de Arroz normalizado (RPI) siguiendo el gradiente de elevación del delta. Según el escenario considerado, los modelos predicen una reducción de RPI del 62.1 % en 2010 a 54.6 % en 2100 para el escenario más conservador (SLR = 0.53 m); Y al 33,8 % en el peor escenario considerado (SLR = 1,8 m), con una disminución de los beneficios de hasta 300 €/ha. Para los mismos escenarios, la superficie de los campos de arroz inundados osciló entre 36 y 90 %, y la pérdida de sedimentos de 122 a 418 millones de toneladas. La medida de adaptación propuesta tuvo un efecto positivo en la producción de arroz y puede considerarse como una opción de gestión innovadora para mantener los servicios ecosistémicos del Delta del Ebro a pesar del SLR. Nuestros modelos pueden aplicarse a otras áreas deltaicas en todo el mundo, ayudando a los agricultores y a las partes interesadas a identificar áreas vulnerables a los impactos del SLR y a desarrollar planes de manejo.
Coastal areas have to cope with increasing risks related to SLR. The Ebro Delta is a valuable ecosystem representative of the vulnerability of coastal areas to SLR. Rice production is the main economic activity, occupying ca. 65 % of the total surface is sensitive to SLR, and the increase in soil salinity, the most limiting factor. Thus, it is necessary to analyse the impacts of SLR, i.e. flooding and soil salinization, and to develop appropriate adaptation measures. We built spatial models (1 × 1 m) in areas prone to be flooded, sediment loss, soil salinity, and rice production loss. We coupled data from GIS with GLMz and models were run under different scenarios predicted by IPCC (AR5) up to 2100. We also evaluated the feasibility of an innovative nature-based adaptation measure consisting in reintroducing sediments trapped in basin reservoirs into the delta plain. Elevation (inversely related) was the most important variable in explaining soil salinity, thus, models predicted a decrease in normalized Rice Production Index following the delta elevation gradient. Subjected to the scenario considered, the models predict a RPI reduction from 62.1 % in 2010 to 54.6 % by 2100 in the most conservative scenario (SLR = 0.53 m); and to 33.8 % in the worst considered scenario (SLR = 1.8 m), with a decrease of profit up to 300 € per hectare. For the same scenarios, the flooded rice fields’ area ranged 36-90 %, and the sediment loss 122-418 million tonnes. The nature-based adaptation measure proposed had a positive effect on rice production, and it can be considered as an innovative management option for maintaining the Ebro Delta ecosystem services although SLR. Our models can be applied to other deltaic areas worldwide, helping farmers and stakeholders to identify vulnerable areas to SLR impacts and to develop management plans.

碩士
國立中興大學
法律學系碩士在職專班
101
The adverse impacts caused by global warming and climate change might lead several extreme weather events in Taiwan and damaged properties and lifes in the island. The climate change attrack the attentions of the citizen. Because of its unique geographic location and natural environments, Taiwan is prone to be seriously affected by shifts in rainfall patterns and the frequent occurrences of extreme. The types of disasters have transferred from floods or sediment disasters into complex disasters. The traditional river basin governance models and measures hare facing great challenge. By viewing the climate adaptation policies and comprehensive river basin governance specification of United Kingdom, Japan, the Netherlands, the United States and the European Union, this article find the gaps on our climate change adaptation strategies and river basin governance specifications. We recommended climate change adaptation concepts should change into programmatic comprehensive river basin governance regulations. The related Land Planning and Usage Act, Water Act, Soil and Water Conservation Act, Forest Act and other regulations shall be established as a dedicated unit. Finally, this thesis also suggests the promotion on comprehensive river basin governance specification by referring the legislative development from international trend.

Research Doctorate - Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
This thesis by publication is composed of an overview on climate change and health, brief literature review, rationale, objectives, five published papers, and a final chapter providing a conclusion and recommendations. At the time of submission, four papers have been published and a further paper has been accepted to peer reviewed journals. Chapter 1 provides an overview of climate change and health, a brief literature review of climate change and its impact on health, the global perspective of climate change and human health, and health consequences of climate change in Bangladesh. It also describes the rationale for conducting this study; and presents research questions, objectives, and a statement regarding ethical approval. Chapter 2 (Paper 5), reports a primary analytic assessment of the climate change risks to health in Bangladesh. The title of the paper is "Climate Change and Health: Burden of Bangladesh", published in the Asian-Pacific Newsletter on Occupational Health and Safety 2011, 18 (1):14-16 from the University of Helsinki, Finland. A comprehensive summary of the epidemiological evidence of climate sensitive health outcomes and particularly vulnerable groups has also been presented here. It showed the health effects stemming from climate change, distribution of diseases, and the Government cost estimates for the possible additional health burdens of climate change in Bangladesh. The total costs for climate attributed diseases were estimated to be US $2.8 billion by 2021. Chapter 3 (Paper 4), makes an attempt to highlight the negative impacts of changing climate on health and establish the need for linking climate change and health adaptation with sustainable development. This paper titled "Climate Change and Health Adaptation for sustainable development" was published in Journal of Development Management and Communication 2014, 1 (3):258-264 from Joypur, India. The adverse effects of climate change will mostly be seen in Least Developed Countries, which are already burdened with world’s most prominent climate sensitive health challenges. The shift of Millennium Development Goals to Sustainable Development Goals demands planned adaptive strategies to face these challenges. Chapter 4 (Paper 2), “Knowledge and perception about climate change and health: findings from a baseline survey among vulnerable communities in Bangladesh” has been submitted to BMC Public Health. This is a cross-sectional survey, undertaken among 6720 households of 224 enumeration areas of rural villages geographically distributed in seven vulnerable districts of Bangladesh. The study revealed that the majority of the participants (54.2%) have had knowledge about climate change from some source but 45.8% did not (p< 0.001). Among the knowledgeable participants (n=3645), the majority felt excessive temperature as the change of climate (83.2%). Among the respondents 94.5% perceived change in climate and extreme weather events. Most of them (91.9%) observed change in rainfall pattern in the last 10 years and 97.8% people think their health care expenditure increased after the extreme weather events. Age, educational qualification, monthly income, and occupation were significantly associated with the knowledge of climate change (p<0.001). The most influential factor was the level of education to understand climate change and its impact on health. Chapter 5 (Paper 3), titled: “Climate change and health in Bangladesh: A baseline survey” has been accepted by the Global Health Action (in press). This chapter provides information on potential climate change impact on health, magnitude of climate sensitive diseases and baseline scenarios of health systems to climate variability and change. The majority of the respondents (n=6750) were low income vulnerable group (60% farmer or day labourer) with an average of 30 years stay in their locality. Most of them (96%) faced extreme weather events, 45% of people became homeless and displaced for a mean duration of 38 days in the last 10 years. Almost all of the respondents (97.8%) believe that health care expenditure increased after the extreme weather events. Mean annual total health care expenditure was 6,555 Bangladeshi Taka (1 USD = 77 BDT in 2015) and exclusively out-of-pocket of the respondents. Incidence of dengue was 1.29 (95% CI 0.65 – 2.56) and malaria 13.86 (95% CI 6.00 – 32.01) per 1,000 adult population for 12 months preceding the data collection. Incidence of diarrhoea and pneumonia among under 5 children of the households for the preceding month was 10.3% (95% CI 9.16 – 11.66) and 7.3% (95% CI 6.35 – 8.46), respectively. The findings of this survey showed that there is a potential risk of climate change on human health in Bangladesh. The magnitude of malaria, dengue, childhood diarrhoea and pneumonia was high among the vulnerable communities. Chapter 6 (Paper 1), deals with the child-centred adaptive measures for climate change and health adaptation. The paper “Child centred approach to climate change and health adaptation through schools in Bangladesh: a cluster randomised intervention trial” published in PLoS One 2015, 10(8):e0134993. This cluster randomized intervention trial involved 60 schools throughout Bangladesh, with 3293 secondary school students participating. The objective of this study was to test the effectiveness of the school manual developed by the Government of Bangladesh in increasing the knowledge level of the school children about climate change and health adaptation. A total of 1515 students from 30 intervention schools received the intervention through classroom training based on the school manual and 1778 students of the 30 control schools did not get the manual but a leaflet on climate change and health issues. Six months later, a post-intervention test of the same questionnaire used in the pre-test was performed at both intervention and control schools. The pre and post test scores were analysed along with the demographic data by using random effects model. The intervention group had a 17.42% (95% CI: 14.45 to 20.38, P=<0.001) higher score in the post-test after adjusting for pre-test score and other covariates in a multi-level linear regression model. These results suggest that school-based intervention for climate change and health adaptation is effective for increasing the knowledge level of school children. Chapter 7 provides conclusion and recommendations that summarizes the key results of the research and demonstrates how the original research aims were achieved. The thesis concludes with a discussion of the implications of the research and directions for further research.

This publication summarizes the main results of the INCAProject during 2011/2012 and the contributions to the according INCA-Summer-School, which took place from September 19th – September 27th 2012 at the Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Institute of International Forestry and Forest Products, Professorship of Tropical Forestry in Tharandt, Germany.

Sustainability of biophysical soil and water conservation measures undertaken on communal land remains a challenge. This research was conducted in the two watersheds of Legambo district, Ethiopia, using a conservation project implemented as disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The study examined relevance and appropriateness of conservation measures and identified factors affecting sustainability. Findings show that population growth is high and crop production is the major source of income for all households. Crop income levels varied significantly (P<<0.01) with wealth status of households. Droughts, floods, crop diseases and frost are hazards that frequently occur in the area. Some conservation measures implemented were considered by communities as inappropriate. Low community participation, poor planning and unclear objectives and use rights, weak enforcement of by-laws and lack of maintenance of structures are the major challenges. Integrating family planning, enhancing participation of women, clarifying responsibilities and benefit sharing arrangements, enforcement of rules and building capacity are suggested to improve effectiveness and sustainability of conservation measures
Environmental Sciences
M. Sc. (Environmental Management)

The diploma thesis "Comparing Climate Change Adaptation Measures: The Cases of the Czech Republic, Germany and Poland" compares national adaptation strategies on climate change of the Czech Republic, Germany and Poland. These strategies represents general politics of selected states on the field of climate change adaptation and the author compares them regarding the adaptation measures they contain. For this comparison, framework based on options and recommendations provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the EU is used. Author also analyses mitigation policies of selected states and examines similarities and differences in both approaches. In conclusion author relates his findings towards existing research and using both, he introduces limited theoretical findings about possible relationship between mitigation and adaptation policies of states.

As alterações climáticas representam um dos maiores desafios para as populações e as áreas urbanas, seus impactes têm acentuado problemas socioambientais pré-existentes e seus efeitos já afetam, consideravelmente, estas áreas, principalmente no que se relaciona à variação climática média prevista e ao aumento de eventos meteorológicos extremos. Os impactes causados pelas alterações climáticas poderão afetar a saúde humana, a manutenção das áreas verdes, a gestão das infraestruturas urbanas e a mobilidade, de passageiros e dos sistemas de distribuição, inclusive a logística urbana. A adoção de medidas de adaptação às alterações climáticas e de mitigação das emissões de gases de efeito de estufa têm se tornado mais frequentes ao nível das cidades, mas não há um modelo a ser seguido, pois, cada cidade apresenta particularidades relacionadas aos níveis de impacte das alterações climáticas e das respostas possíveis, havendo a necessidade de se analisar individualmente para se elaborar uma solução adequada para atender as necessidades de cada contexto. As áreas urbanas, onde são encontradas as maiores concentrações populacionais e uma maior movimentação de bens e serviços, estão mais expostas às alterações climáticas e, os impactes podem afetar a logística urbana, pois pode haver interrupção da cadeia de abastecimento. Entretanto, as operações de logística urbana podem causar externalidades negativas, que podem ser acentuadas pelas alterações climáticas, e positivas, pela implementação de medidas de adaptação. Foi desenvolvida, nesta dissertação, a investigação de duas temáticas: a logística urbana e a adaptação às alterações climáticas, pois, analisar as dependências e sinergias entre as medidas de adaptação e as atividades de logística urbana, focando na forma em que alterações na estrutura urbana, visando a adaptação às alterações climáticas, podem influenciar a fase final da distribuição urbana (last mile). Pretendeu-se ainda analisar a existência de antagonismos entre a implementação de uma cidade adaptada às alterações climáticas e a gestão eficaz da logística urbana. Para tal, foi desenvolvido um quadro de análise entre a adaptação e a logística urbana, sendo tipificadas 23 medidas de adaptação às alterações climáticas em meio urbano com 17 efeitos potenciais na logística urbana. Este quadro foi aplicado para um estudo de caso desenvolvido nesta dissertação, com enfoque na cidade de Almada, onde foi aplicada a análise das dependências e sinergias, e apresentadas propostas direcionadas para a melhoria no município, no que respeita a: (i) desenvolvimento e implementação de medidas de adaptação às alterações climáticas que possam reduzir os efeitos negativos sobre a logística urbana; (ii) implementação de medidas de gestão das operações de logística urbana direcionadas para a melhoria da eficiência operacional, ambiental e económica; (iii) incrementar a perceção dos técnicos municipais e empresas de logística sobre a importância de uma cadeia de abastecimento mais sustentável, visando a melhoria da qualidade de vida e do espaço urbano. Com base nos resultados obtidos, foi possível identificar uma interação significativa entre as medidas de adaptação às alterações climáticas e a logística urbana. Verificou-se que a implementação de medidas de adaptação às alterações climáticas nos sistemas urbanos contribui para a mudança ou melhoria na gestão da logística urbana atual.
The adoption of measures to adapt to climate change and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions have become more frequent at the level of cities, but there is no model to be followed, as each city has particularities related to the levels of impact of climate change and possible responses, with the need to analyse individually to develop an adequate solution to meet the needs of each context. Urban areas, where the highest population concentrations and a greater movement of goods and services are found, are more exposed to climate change and the impacts can affect urban logistics, as there may be an interruption in the supply chain. However, urban logistics operations can cause negative externalities, which can be accentuated by climate change, and positive, by the implementation of adaptation measures. In this dissertation, the investigation of two themes was developed: urban logistics and adaptation to climate change, therefore, analysing the dependencies and synergies between adaptation measures and urban logistics activities, focusing on how changes in the urban structure, aiming at adaptation to climate change, can influence the final phase of urban distribution (last mile). It was also intended to analyse the existence of antagonisms between the implementation of a city adapted to climate change and the effective management of urban logistics. To this end, an analysis framework between adaptation and urban logistics was developed, typifying 23 measures of adaptation to climate change in urban areas with 17 potential effects on urban logistics. This framework was applied to a case study developed in this dissertation, focusing on the city of Almada, where the analysis of dependencies and synergies was applied, and proposals were presented aimed at improving the municipality, concerning: (i) development and implementation of climate change adaptation measures that can reduce the negative effects on urban logistics; (ii) implementation of management measures for urban logistics operations aimed at improving operational, environmental and economic efficiency; (iii) increase the perception of municipal technicians and logistics companies about the importance of a more sustainable supply chain, aimed at improving the quality of life and urban space. Based on the results obtained, it was possible to identify a significant interaction between climate change adaptation measures and urban logistics. It was found that the implementation of climate change adaptation measures in urban systems contributes to the change or improvement in the management of current urban logistics.