Academic literature on the topic '530 Fisica'

Fiscal decentralisation refers to the transfer of authority and responsibility from central government to sub-national or the local government. It is mostly pre-assumed that fiscal decentralisation can play important role in the efficient allocations of resources and improvement of the political, economic and social activities. Many studies unlock the relationship between federal government and sub-national governments or local government. Fiscal decentralisation theories mostly based on Richard Musgrave’s (1939) functions of government. He defined three roles: stabilisation, allocation and distribution whereas, only the allocation function seems to be appropriate to fiscal decentralisation theory. Because these three functions are not equally suitable for all level of governments and it is necessary for efficiency that each function is properly matched to the level. It is a step forward towards more responsive and efficient governance if the decentralisation is done properly [Oates (1972)]. The logic behind fiscal decentralisation is accountability and efficiency; the smaller organisations are more fragile for accountability than the larger ones. However, decentralisation has not always been effective in the provision of service delivery and hardly accountable due to lack of community participation. If there is no spill over effects and in the absence of diseconomies of scale it could be effective and efficient. The sub-national governments where the externalities are internalised and scale economies are acceptable fiscal responsibilities should be assigned [Rodden, et al. (2003)]. The sub-national governments are much closer to the people and they are better informed to respond according to their demands of goods and services [Hayek (1945); Qian and Weingast (1997)]. Service deliveries are highly dependent on transfers from central governments. It is necessary to increase the revenue autonomy of sub-national governments and it is linked with the service delivery in social sector [Elhiraika (2007)]. Lower level of governments is closer to the people and much aware of the preferences of localities. Service deliveries should be located at the lowest level because decentralised provision of services increases the economic welfare [Oates (1999)].

Este trabalho tem como principal objetivo analisar a prevalência de transtornos mentais comuns em homens docentes da Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana e a associação com a prática de Atividade Fisica em tempo de lazer. Trata-se de um estudo epidemiológico de corte transversal; os instrumentos para a coleta da pesquisa foram os questionários sobre características sócio demográficas, nível de Atividade Física em tempo livre (AFTL), Sintomas Psiquiátricos Não-Psicóticos-SRQ20 e Instrumento de Investigação de Qualidade de Vida: WHOQOL- Bref. A análise verificou que os TMC apresentam associação estatisticamente significante (p<0, 05) com a situação conjugal, cor/raça da pele, faixa etária, renda mensal e anos completos de estudo e associação estatisticamente significante, e p-valor = 0,033, entre o nível de atividade física em trabalhadores docentes. Além disso altas horas de trabalho, precariedade e fatores econômicos podem influenciar na prática atividades de lazer dos docentes. Os resultados mostram a necessidade de criar estratégias para prevenção da saúde fisica e mental desses profissionais.

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui morfologi permukaan arang aktif yang diaktivasi secara kimia dengan agen aktivasi potassium silikat (K2SiO3) dan secara fisika dengan variasi temperatur aktivasi. Karbon aktif tandan aren diperoleh dari tahap karbonasi pada suhu (300 oC -400 oC) dan perendaman dengan K2SiO3 selama 12 jam serta aktivasi fisika selama 30 menit dengan variasi temperatur 600oC,700oC, dan 800 oC. morfologi permukaan arang aktif dikarakterisasi menggunakan SEM dan di analysis menggunakan Software Image-J untuk mengetahui luas permukaan pori. Dari analisis, diperoleh luas pori permukaan arang aktif yang hanya diaktivasi secara kimia sebesar 510 nm. Sedangkan dengan aktivasi kimia dilanjutkan dengan pemanasan pada temperatur 600 oC,700 oC, dan 800 oC memiliki luas pori permukaan masing-masing sebesar 535 nm, 628 nm, dan 520 nm. Hasil analisis menunjukan luas pori permukaan pada karbon aktif yang paling besar terdapat pada aktivasi 700 oC yang mencapai 628 nm dan dikategorikan dalam macropori.

This paper studies the effects of fiscal news on the Brazilian economy, building on the new literature that seeks to identify fiscal policy shocks through information from professional forecasts. I build a term structureof primary balance expectations in Brazil, and estimate fiscal reaction functions for different maturities. Primary balance forecasts are decomposed into an expected and unexpected component, based on predicted and residuals obtained from the reaction functions. Expected and unexpected fiscal news are identified respectively as the first factor of the predicted and residual series from the reaction functions, aiming to capture the news that are likely to persist over the forecast horizon. Although with substantial uncertainty, fiscal tightening news induce a short-lived increase in growth, fall in inflation, decline in the real wage and a depreciation of the real exchange rate.

Throughout the decade of the 1990s, major emphasis in Pakistan remained on fiscal reform as a part of the reform programmes undertaken by the various governments of Pakistan. Fiscal reform assumes significance considering the high budget deficits that Pakistan has been experiencing. These have added to Pakistan’s total debt burden in general and external debt in particular. Increase in the burden of debt adds to debt-servicing expenditure which further feeds back into the issue of high fiscal deficit. Debt-servicing increased to almost 47 percent1 by the middle of the decade of 1990s and comprised 8.3 percent of the GDP, up from less than 1 percent mid-1960s. Pakistan’s external debt at over $32 billion2 in 1998 was 41 percent of its GNP which was amongst the highest in the South Asian region with India’s at 20 percent of GNP in the same year and Sri Lanka’s also at 41 percent3 of its GNP. In this paper, we attempt to explore the rationale behind the emphases on the improvement in both the deficit-to-GDP and the tax-to-GDP ratios that have remained the cornerstones of Pakistan’s fiscal reform effort in the decade of the 1990s. Section 2 is a discussion of the extent of successes and failures of the fiscal reform effort thus far and explores the relationship between tax generation and budget deficit. Section 3 discusses the impact of expenditures on budget deficit. Section 4 shows the rise in dependence on external sources of financing. Section 5 gives the conclusions.

O objetivo deste artigo é verificar se a sustentabilidade fiscal dos estados brasileiros durante o período de 2001 a 2015 é afetada pelo sistema de transferências intergovernamentais. Os resultados indicam que a dívida pública não é sustentável e que ausência de sustentabilidade independe da inclusão/exclusão das transferências. Os efeitos, contudo, são heterogêneos. Os estados das regiões Sul e Sudeste, geralmente pagadores líquidos de transferências, não atendem a condição de sustentabilidade quando o saldo primário usual é utilizado, passando a atendê-la quando é avaliado o saldo primário exclusive as transferências. Já os demais estados demonstram grande fragilidade fiscal, não atendendo a condição de sustentabilidade sob nenhuma circunstância. Eles não mostram desempenho fiscal adequado nem mesmo quando são incluídas as transferências, apesar de serem beneficiários líquidos de recursos.

Este estudo investiga a dinâmica dos gastos do governo brasileiro baseando-se em três abordagens: a Lei de Wagner, a Ilusão Fiscal e o nexo causal com as receitas. Para o período 1997T1-2013T4 foram estimados Modelos Autorregressivos de Defasagens Distribuídas (ARDL) aplicados ao arcabouço da cointegração. Os resultados indicaram: i) indícios contra a validade da Lei de Wagner; ii) presença de Ilusão Fiscal, relacionada à existência de tributação indireta; iii) relação diferenciada da causalidade receitas-despesas, a depender da desagregação dos gastos públicos; iv) relação positiva entre salário mínimo real e dinâmica das despesas.

Like most developing countries a steady budget deficit in Pakistan is the primary cause of all major ills of the economy. It has varied between 5.4 to 8.7 percent during last two decades. On the other hand the current account deficit varied between 2.7 to 7.2 percent during the same period. The variations in fiscal policy can lead to predictable developments in an open economy’s performance on current account, remains a controversial issue. An important aspect of this issue concerns what is termed as twin deficit analysis, according to which fiscal deficits and current account balances are very closely related so that reductions in the former are both necessary and sufficient to obtain improved performance in the later. Theoretical work on the relationship that exist between variations in fiscal policy and the current account balance has been based upon two types of models. These models are constructed from postulated behavioural relationships that purport to describe how the economy works in aggregate without explaining the behaviour of agents who make up the economy [Mundel (1963); Branson (1976); Dornbusch (1976); Kawai (1985) and Marston (1985)]. The second type of model, derives the important macroeconomic relationships from the microfoundations of individual optimising behaviour [Dixit (1978); Neary (1980); Obstfeld (1981); Persson (1982); Kimbrough (1985); Frenkel and Razin (1986); Cuddington and Vinals (1985, 1986a) and Moore (1989)]. However, both of these approaches have yielded divergent results.

O presente trabalho visa a expor as mudanças trazidas pela Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal do Esporte - LRFE e suas principais consequências no futebol brasileiro. Objetiva-se, por meio da óptica do futebol-empresa, observar se e, caso positivo, como e de que maneira a referida lei poderá produzir efeitos no sentido da modernização do futebol e da profissionalização de sua gestão, não apenas no sentido de promover governança, mas também em sua gestão fiscal. Por meio do método hipotético-dedutivo e da metodologia bibliografia e documental, tem-se como objetivos específicos analisar três pontos principais da LRFE: a) o Programa de Modernização da Gestão e de Responsabilidade Fiscal do Futebol Brasileiro - Profut, verificando as condições necessárias para que as entidades desportivas dele façam parte, bem como dos pressupostos para o refinanciamento de dívidas perante a União; c) a influência que a ideia de fair-play financeiro possui nessa lei; e c) analisar os incentivos à governança desportiva, mais especificamente, por meio da responsabilização solidária e ilimitada dos dirigentes por determinadas situações dispostas em lei, que configuram gestão temerária, como no caso de desvio de finalidade e a criação de risco excessivo e irresponsável para o patrimônio do clube. Observa que a União, no caso vertente, funciona como verdadeira credora, uma vez que permite o parcelamento das dívidas, mas, como contraprestação, exige diversas medidas fundamentais para a modernização do esporte no Brasil.

Orientador: Vera Aparecida Madruga Forti
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Educação Física
Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-03T22:00:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Carvalho_RosaneBeltraodaCunha_M.pdf: 1273420 bytes, checksum: 142967dc94d4b9e8b80e0c81f87a3d76 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2003
Resumo: A predominância do sedentarismo, principalmente em nações desenvolvidas e em desenvolvimento, tem preocupado as entidades internacionais ligadas a saude publica. O desenvolvimento do conceito de atividade física como um habito na vida das pessoas, tem sido bem pesquisado, mas, somado a esse fato, o crescimento da população idosa tambem e um fator marcante em todo o mundo. Essa mudança de perfil populacional tem estimulado transformações principalmente políticas e sociais. É sabido que os níveis de atividade física decrescem à medida que a idade cronológica avança. Embora se divulguem amplamente os benefícios oriundos da atividade física regular para todas as pessoas de todas as idades e, especialmente, os idosos, os indivíduos com mais de 50 anos representam a parcela da população mais sedentária. Por isso, a atividade física tem sido apontada como uma das estratégias a serem utilizadas para a melhora da qualidade de vida das pessoas. Porém, ainda faltam dados substanciais necessários para esclarecer como e em que medida o exercício físico pode auxiliar este processo. A avaliação física funcional teve um avanço significativo nas últimas décadas. Esse progresso tem colaborado com as ciências do movimento na análise dos benefícios da atividade física, bem como na elaboração de melhores formas de exercitar os seres humanos. Durante muitos anos, os estudos abordando a avaliação física foram focados, principalmente, no desporto de rendimento, nas crianças e nos adolescentes. Anos após somente é que as pesquisas foram direcionadas à população adulta saudável. Recentemente os estudos enfocando a avaliação física funcional têm direcionado seu interesse aos adultos com incapacidade e idosos. Diante dessa constatação, tem sido difícil o estabelecimento de parâmetros de comparação e acompanhamento dos níveis de condicionamento físico e capacidade funcional nos indivíduos de meia-idade e idosos. Dessa forma, o presente estudo objetivou avaliar pessoas praticantes de atividades físicas regulares na cidade de Campinas/SP. Foram avaliadas 734 mulheres e 245 homens, entre 50 e 86 anos de idade. Foram selecionadas para coleta de dados as variáveis associadas à aptidão física relacionada à saúde: resistência cardiorrespiratória, força muscular, flexibilidade e composição corporal. Os participantes de nossa pesquisa eram praticantes de exercícios físicos regulares com e sem supervisão profissional qualificada. A partir dos dados coletados e analisados o nosso estudo poderá contribuir para que mais informações sobre a avaliação física funcional nessa faixa etária sejam levantadas sejam levantadas. Conseqüentemente, aumentar as chances de serem estabelecidos parâmetros confiáveis sobre os mesmos, especialmente visando a população brasileira. Os índices que subsidiaram os nossos estudos foram os mesmos utilizados recentemente para a população americana fisicamente independente, além dos valores já normatizados por entidades internacionais ligadas à atividade física e saúde
Abstract: There is worrying concern for individuais who have become increasingly sedentary in later life, mainly in the developed world. Taking this point into high consideration, both international entities and Public Health Care are trying to find a solution to this matter which is considered to be of great importance. Research shows that people who take regular physical activities reap the health benefits. In addition, another important fact is the increase of life expectancy. As a result, the elderly make up end ever - increasing percentage of society, which makes it more important them ever for real effort to be made in improving the lives of seniors citizens. The refore, some measures were taken to ensure that the elderly have a good quality of life. Needless to say that the frequency of physical activities decrease as the age increase. People above 50 years of age take less exercise than they used to, becoming more sedentary. As a result, the physical activity has been encouraged as a strategy for gaining quality of life, specially in elderly. However, factual data are required in order to know how and how much physical exercise can help in this processo The functional physical evaluation has been a great development over the last decades. The rapid progression of this new concept collaborated with the movement sciences in the analysis and development of best ways to exercise human beings. For many years the studies about physical evaluation were restricted only to athletes, children and teenagers. Years later, the researches were carried out functional physical evaluation have been focused on disabled people and elderly as well. Considering this point, it is hard to establish parameters of comparison and accompaniment of physical fitness and functional capacity levels for middle age and elderly as well. Thus, the current study aimed at evaluating people engaged with regular physical activity , living in Campinas - São Paulo 734 women and 245 men from 50 - 86 years of age were evaluated. The variables selected were the physical fitness associated with health: cardiorespiratory endurance, muscular strength, flexibility and body composition. The participants performed physical exerci se controlled by a professional supervision or not. On the basis of findings described, it is our belief that this research is will contribute somewhat towards gains in the functional and physical evaluation. Accordingly, the chances of reliable parameters can be increased, specially when focusing on Brazilian citizens. The work was based on the scores used recently for American physically independent, besides the figures recommended for international entities joined to physical activity and health
Mestrado
Mestre em Educação Física

In questo lavoro abbiamo studiato la presenza di correzioni, dette unusuali, agli stati eccitati delle teorie conformi. Inizialmente abbiamo brevemente descritto l'approccio di Calabrese e Cardy all'entropia di entanglement nei sistemi unidimensionali al punto critico. Questo approccio permette di ottenere la famosa ed universale divergenza logaritmica di questa quantità. Oltre a questo andamento logaritmico son presenti correzioni, che dipendono dalla geometria su cui si basa l'approccio di Calabrese e Cardy, il cui particolare scaling è noto ed è stato osservato in moltissimi lavori in letteratura. Questo scaling è dovuto alla rottura locale della simmetria conforme, che è una conseguenza della criticità del sistema, intorno a particolari punti detti branch points usati nell'approccio di Calabrese e Cardy. In questo lavoro abbiamo dimostrato che le correzioni all'entropia di entanglement degli stati eccitati della teoria conforme, che può anch'essa essere calcolata tramite l'approccio di Calabrese e Cardy, hanno lo stesso scaling di quelle osservate negli stati fondamentali. I nostri risultati teorici sono stati poi perfettamente confermati dei calcoli numerici che abbiamo eseguito sugli stati eccitati del modello XX. Sono stati inoltre usati risultati già noti per lo stato fondamentale del medesimo modello per poter studiare la forma delle correzioni dei suoi stati eccitati. Questo studio ha portato alla conclusione che la forma delle correzioni nei due differenti casi è la medesima a meno di una funzione universale.

Le reti di oggetti intelligenti costituiscono una realtà che si sta affermando nel mondo quotidiano. Dispositivi capaci di comunicare tra loro, oltre che svolgere la propria funzione primaria, possono comporre una nuvola che faccia riferimento al legittimo proprietario. Un aspetto fondamentale di questo scenario riguarda la sicurezza, in particolar modo per garantire una comunicazione protetta. Il soddisfacimento di questo requisito è fondamentale anche per altri punti come l'integrità dell'informazione condivisa e l'autenticazione. Lo strumento più antico e tutt'ora adatto alla riservatezza di una comunicazione è costituito dalla crittografia. Una tecnica crittografica è schematicamente composta da un algoritmo che, a seconda di una chiave e del messaggio in ingresso, restituisce in uscita un messaggio cifrato, il crittogramma. Questo viene poi inviato e al legittimo destinatario che, essendo in possesso della chiave e dell'algoritmo, lo converte nel messaggio originale. L'obiettivo è rendere impossibile ad un utente malevolo - non dotato di chiave - la ricostruzione del messaggio. L'assunzione che l'algoritmo possa essere noto anche a terze parti concentra l'attenzione sul tema della chiave. La chiave deve essere sufficientemente lunga e casuale, ma soprattutto deve essere nota ai due utenti che intendono instaurare la comunicazione. Quest'ultimo problema, noto come distribuzione della chiave, è stato risolto con il sistema RSA a chiave pubblica. Il costo computazionale di questa tecnica, specialmente in un contesto di dispositivi non caratterizzati da grandi potenze di calcolo, suggerisce però la ricerca di strade alternative e meno onerose. Una soluzione promettente ed attualmente oggetto di studio sembra essere costituita dalle proprietà del canale wireless. Un ponte radio è caratterizzato da una funzione di trasferimento che dipende dall'ambiente in cui ci si trova e, per il teorema di reciprocità, risulta essere lo stesso per i due utenti che l'hanno instaurato. Oggetto della tesi è lo studio ed il confronto di alcune delle tecniche possibili per estrarre una chiave segreta da un mezzo condiviso, come quello del canale wireless. Si presenterà il contesto in cui verrà sviluppato l'elaborato. Si affronteranno in particolare due casi di interesse, costituiti dalla attuale tecnologia di propagazione del segnale a banda stretta (impiegata per la maggior parte delle trasmissioni senza fili) per passare a quella relativamente più recente della banda Ultra-larga (UWB). Verranno poi illustrate delle tecniche per ottenere stringhe di bit dai segnali acquisiti, e saranno proposti dei metodi per la loro correzione da eventuali discordanze. Saranno infine riportate le conclusioni sul lavoro svolto e le possibili strade future.

Este trabalho trata o problema genérico da obtenção analítica exata das variedades algébricas que definem domínios de estabilidade e multiestabilidade para sistemas dinâmicos dissipativos com equações de movimento definidas por funções racionais. Apresentamos um método genérico, válido para qualquer sistema dinâmico, que permite reduzir a análise de sistemas multidimensionais arbitrários à análise de um sistema unidimensional equivalente. Este método é aplicado ao mapa de Hénon, o exemplo paradigmático de sistema multidimensional, para estudar a estrutura aritmética imposta pela dinâmica das órbitas de períodos 4, 5, e 6, bem como seus domínios de estabilidade no espaço de parâmetros. Graças à obtençao de resultados analíticos exatos, podemos explorar pela primeira vez as peculariedades de cada um dos períodos mencionados. Algumas das novidades mais marcantes encontradas são as seguintes: Para período 4, encontramos um domínio de multiestabilidade caracterizado pela coexistência de duas órbitas definidas em corpos algébricos distintos. Observamos a existência de discontinuidades na dinâmica simbólica quando os parâmetros são mudados adiabáticamente ao longo de circulações fechadas no espaço de parâmetros e explicamos sua origem algébrica. Publicamos tais resultados em dois artigos: Physica A, 295, 285-290(2001) e Physical Review E, 65, 036231 (2002). Para período 5, obtivemos a variedade algébrica que define o "camarão" (shrimp) característico, obtemos uma expressão analítica para todas as órbitas de período 5, classificamos todas as singulariedades presentes no espaço de parâmetros e analisamos todas as mudanças que ocorrem ao circular-se em torno de tais singulariedades. Para período 6, da expressão analítica que fornece todas as órbitas, encontramos um resultado muito surpreendente, o mais notável desta dissertação: a possibilidade de coexistência de órbitas reais e complexas estáveis, para valores reais dos parâmetros físicos. Resultados preliminares parecem indicar serem tais órbitas complexas uma espécie de órbitas fantasmas, com semelhanças as órbitas encontradas por Gutzwiller para sistemas Hamiltonianos (não- dissipativos).

Budget control is a process of financial monitoring to ensure effective allocation, collection and efficient utilizing of public funds. It is a process that is aimed at ensuring the accomplishment of public policy objectives. Budget control is regulated by financial legislation as well as regulations and procedures which guide public financial administrators. Continuous monitoring is needed once appropriation is allowed by parliament or provincial legislatures to ensure effective service rendering as well as tax and user charges collection. This study investigates the reported ineffective budget control measures implemented by the provincial treasury in the Province of the Eastern Cape particularly in the Eastern Cape Department of Education (George, 2004). Ineffective budget control may be associated with the implementation of unstable fiscal policy by the provincial treasury that led to deficit spending in the Department of Education during the 2004/5 financial year. The purpose of this study is to show that the implementation of stable fiscal policy instruments by the provincial treasury would lead to effective budget control in provincial departments such as the Eastern Cape Department of Education. Governments in many instances encounter various challenges in controlling their expenditures on an annual basis as well as in the medium term. This is due to the notion that once the government exceeds the current year’s budget, it consumes the forthcoming budget. Borrowing is by nature an implicit consumption of future unplanned revenue. This makes the Medium Term Revenue Framework in the province immaterial as the provincial own revenue is insignificant. The relative uncontrollability of government expenditure stems from the notion that the provision of, for instance, primary education and social welfare is intertwined with legal entitlement within prescribed parameters. Allocative efficiency embodies recognition of legal entitlement that is reflected in the distribution imperatives if the provincial treasury is to be effective in the budget control function. The National Norms and Standards for School Funding of 2006 state explicitly that public spending in public schools is targeted at increasing the literacy levels of the poor. Intergovernmental fiscal relations play a pivotal role in modelling the fiscal policy of the province. This stems from the fact that expected national collected revenue is distributed as an equitable share to national, provincial and local spheres of government. The criteria for revenue sharing are based on economic disparities and demographics in each sphere of government. It is imperative to note in intergovernmental relations that there are functional areas of concurrent national and provincial competencies. The budget control function of the provincial treasury is implemented within the framework of various administrative processes which are aimed at ensuring effective transactional activities. The disbursement of funds and various other financial processes are subject to the delegation of powers as prescribed in the Public Finance Management Act, 1999 (Act 1 of 1999), as amended by Act 29 of 1999. The provincial governments’ fiscal policies are modelled to be consistent with the macro-economic objectives of the national government. It is for the purpose of macro-economic stability that only national government is eligible to borrow to finance a budget deficit. Provinces are legally prohibited from overspending their budgets. If the fiscal policies of the provinces materially and unreasonably prejudice the national economic policies, the relevant provincial treasury is responsible for taking appropriate steps to place the financial administration on a sound footing.

Neste trabalho buscamos calcular as caracter´ısticas ´opticas e eletrˆonicas de nanofitas de di´oxido de estanho (SnO2) pura e com vacˆancia de oxigˆenio, e as modificac¸ ˜oes nas estruturas e propriedades, que ocorreram nas mesmas; utilizando como ferramenta os c´alculos de primeiros princ´ıpios, baseados no m´etodo da Teoria do Funcional da Densidade (DFT). Utilizamos o c´odigo SIESTA nas nossas simulac¸ ˜oes, utilizando algumas aproximac¸ ˜oes necess´arias, que ser˜ao descritas posteriormente. Atrav´es do SIESTA calculamos as func¸ ˜oes diel´etricas, partes real e imagin´aria, e por meio destas calculamos algumas propriedades ´opticas como coeficiente de absorc¸ ˜ao, refletˆancia, condutividade ´optica e outras. O estudo das propriedades eletrˆonicas das estruturas foi atrav´es das estruturas eletrˆonica de bandas, da densidade de estado total (DOS), da densidade de estado parcial (PDOS), do c´alculo do momento magn´etico resultante, e do estudo do mapa de contorno da diferenc¸a de densidade eletrˆonica. Os resultados obtidos se comparados a estudos experimental, mostram-se satisfat´orios, onde alguns resultados concordaram muito bem com outros trabalhos encontrados na literatura.
In this work we calculate the optical and electronic characteristics of tin dioxide nanoribbons (SnO2) and pure oxygen vacancy, and the changes in the structures and properties, which occurred in the same; using as a tool the first-principles calculations, based on the method Theory Density Functional (DFT). Using the SIESTA code in our simulations, using some approximations necessary, which will be described. Through the SIESTA calculate the dielectric functions, real and imaginary parts, and means calculate some optical properties such as absorption coefficient, reflectance and other optical conductivity. The study of the electronic properties of the structures was through the electronic band structure, the total state density (DOS) of the partial density of state (PDOS), calculating the resulting magnetic moment and of the study of contour map of the difference of electron density. The results are compared to experimental studies, appear satisfactory, where some results are in agreement with other studies in the literature.
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES

A utilização de novas rotas de síntese de materiais nanoestruturados tem levado a obtenção de materiais apresentando formas anisotrópicas, que podem dar origem a novas propriedades e aplicações. Nesse contexto, este trabalho tem por objetivo a caracterização estrutural e magnética de Óxidos Magnéticos Diluídos nanoestruturados a base de ZnO dopados com Co (ZnO:Co) preparados a partir de moagem mecânica. Recentemente, grande atenção se tem dado na utilização do ZnO como OMDs para aplicação em Spintrônica. O objetivo é obtermos nanocristais de óxidos magnéticos sem a formação de fases secundárias e que apresentem ordenamento ferromagnético com temperatura de Curie acima da temperatura ambiente. A incorporação do Co na estrutura de ZnO foi avaliada através de analises microestruturais e químicas utilizando as técnicas de Difração de Raios X, Microscopia Eletrônica de Varredura, Espectroscopia Dispersiva de Energia, Espectroscopia Raman, X-Ray Absorption Near Edge Structure. A caracterização magnética se fez por magnetometria SQUID. Conjugando os resultados dessas diferentes técnicas, confirmou-se a substituição do Zn pelo Co na estrutura do ZnO, sem alteração da mesma. Observamos que o processo de moagem mecânica empregado possui um limite de eficiência que nos permitiu atingir diâmetros medianos dos grãos da ordem de 100 nm. Observamos também que o processo de moagem mecânica introduz defeitos estruturais no sistema ZnO:Co em correlação com a eficiência de moagem. A magnetometria SQUID revelou a coexistência de uma fase paramagnética e uma fase ferromagnética. As análises da fase ferromagnética demonstram claramente sua origem intrínseca e a sua associação direta à presença de defeitos estruturais introduzidos pela moagem mecânica
The synthesis of nanostructured material trough new routes has conducted to materials with anisotropic shapes that would lead to new properties and applications. In this context, the aim of this work is to characterize structural and magnetically nanostructured Dilute Magnetic Oxides based on the ZnO matrix and doped with Co prepared by the mechanical milling process. The goal is to obtain nanocrystals of magnetic oxides without the observation of undesired secondary phases that would present a ferromagnetic order with Curie temperature above the room temperature. In order to evaluate the incorporation of Co in the ZnO host structure, it was performed a careful microstructural and chemical characterization using the following techniques: X-Ray Diffractometry, Scanning Electron Microscope, Energy Dispersive X-Ray Spectrometry, Raman Spectroscopy and X-Ray Absorption Near Edge Structure. The magnetic characterization was performed by SQUID magnetometry. Conjugating the results of different techniques, confirmed the replacement of Zn by Co in the structure of ZnO without significant distortion. We observed that the mechanical milling has an efficiency limit, which led us to reach median diameters for the milled grains of the order of 100 nm. We also observed that the mechanical milling process introduces structural defects in the ZnO:Co system in correlation with the mechanical milling efficiency. The SQUID magnetometry reveled the coexistence of paramagnetic and ferromagnetic phases. The analyses of the ferromagnetic phase showed clearly its intrinsic origin associated directly to the presence of the structural defects introduced by the mechanical milling.
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES

This thesis presents the result of a study, within the scope of the PLANETA experiment (an INFN research program), on the effect of nanostructures on laser-matter interaction. Specifically, the plasma created on targets containing metal nanowires when irradiated with a laser pulse 6 ns long, at 1064 and 532 nm wavelength, with a power density of about 1 · 1012 W/cm2 . Laser-produced plasma is of interest for a wide range of scientific and technological application, from using them as a source of X-rays to the possibility of nuclear fusion thanks to the high densities and temperatures which can be reached inside the plasma. However, most applications are constrained by the very limited penetration of laser energy into matter, due to the rapid formation of a reflective critical surface of dense plasma. PLANETA experiment was meant to investigate if targets with metal nanowires (thin cylinders with diameter < 100 nm, smaller than the laser’s wavelength) could lead to production of a hotter and/or longer lived plasma compared to bulk metal. The proposed mechanism would be a deeper penetration of laser light into the targets. This could lead to volumetric, instead of superficial heating, and thus to the production of a hotter and denser plasma compared to a bulk metal target. Targets were produced at the electron microscopy lab of INFN Bologna, with nanowires of different geometrical parameters and different metals. They were irradiated with a Nd-Yag laser at the INFN Laboratori Nazionali del Sud in Catania, and the resulting plasmas were observed with detectors of several kinds to compare them with plasmas from bulk metals. A different INFN facility at the Department of Physics, University of L’Aquila, equipped with a 532 nm wavelength laser was available to the PLANETA experiment.

"Motorcycle behavior in the ASEAN region strongly affects the quality of road transport safety where many fatal traffic accidents, including motorcycle accidents, occur. To develop accident avoidance safety systems, it is important to understand motorcycle behavior. This study focuses on uncovering basic information about motorcycle behavior in situations where they overtake vehicles in the Kuala Lumpur area, Malaysia. The accident pattern among go straight vehicles and overtaking motorcycles is one of the most common patterns of fatal accidents in this country. It will be very useful information of motorcycle behaviors before accident occurring. Unfortunately, such important dataset of information can not be investigated yet. However behaviors at not so dangerous or risky situation can be acquired to understand traffic situation between vehicle and motorcycle. These data also give some important information about motorcycle behaviors. To identify these traffic situations, more than 500 hours of traffic situation data (the surrounding environment of the test vehicle) were monitored by a camera mounted on the front side of a test vehicle that drove around the Kuala Lumpur area. Some basic information, namely, overtaking patterns and their frequency, the relative speed of the test vehicle overtaken by motorcycles and the closeness of the motorcycle that is just behind the overtaken test vehicle starts overtaking, were revealed through the analysis. Regarding the overtaking pattern, most motorcycles overtook through a straight trajectory, especially in a congested situation. However the relative frequency of overtaking from just behind the test vehicle pattern increased in a non congested situation. The overtaking speed was less than 10[km/h] in half of the overtaking cases, while the other half varied from 10 to 50 [km/h]. Finally, the closeness of the motorcycle to the vehicle before it started overtaking was less than 5 [m] in some cases (for example, in case of 40-60[km/h] overtaking, around 20% of distances were less than 5[m]), which is a very short distance, and one that occurred frequently in fast driving situations."

Research and/ or Engineering Questions/ Objective In the event of an accident, in today's vehicle belt, airbag systems and steering columns absorb the kinetic energy of occupants in front crashes. Most steering columns are equipped with a deformation device, which provides limited forward displacement of the steering wheel when being impacted dynamically by the occupant. As these features perform on fixed force levels, they deform less when loaded with lower energy, so e.g. when impacted by a smaller occupant. So especially for small occupants the maximum available forward displacement is not used, so they will be decelerated on a higher g-levels than needed.<br>Student researchers of Trier University of Applied Sciences, Germany, and Hindustan Institute of Technology and Sciences, India, started a joint research program with support of the German DAAD and investigated solution to provide maximum forward displacement for occupants of all sizes. This solution could improve vehicle safety significantly in Western markets with in average larger people (correlating approx. with 50%ile dummy) as well as Asian markets with an in average smaller population (correlating approx. with 5%ile dummy). In current legislation, safety systems such as the steering column must be validated in tests using 50%ile Hybrid III dummies only. A component simulation model with a standard restraint system was set up using HyperMesh and LS-Dyna to investigate kinematics and injury pattern for all available dummy sizes (5-50-95%ile). For the steering column a damping device was developed allowing adaptive force levels with help of magnetorheological fluids. Various load levels could be developed for the different dummy sizes. The kinetic energy thus could be dissipated over a longer distance so occupant injuries have been reduced. Feasibility studies on the advanced damper have proven the potential of the approach. To date, there is no technical implementation to determine the exact mass of an occupant in a vehicle, therefore only the seat position can be used as indicator for the mass and size. Nevertheless, a progressive absorption characteristic is included which will not load the occupants more than in today's systems. What does the paper offer that is new in the field including in comparison to other work by the authors? Magnetorheological fluids suffer of the problem of sedimentation, so their usage in rarely used restraint systems is critical. The design presented will ensure high level of dilution throughout the vehicle life, what is unique in the market. The solution thus can improve safety for a wide range of occupants in passenger cars and helps minimize or even prevent injuries. The method provides a general approach for an efficient way of improving occupant safety over a wide range of occupant sizes.

Low- to moderate speed side impacts occur with some frequency in the real world. Prior research into occupant responses in low- to moderate speed side impacts are sparse and have largely focused on evaluating responses of volunteers in low severity collisions or using Hybrid III Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs) for comparison with volunteers and/or in moderate severity impacts. The objective of this study was to examine trends in head and neck loading during side impact testing in new vehicle models over the prior two decades. Data from 371 simulated side impact crash tests (model years 2002 to 2020) conducted as a part of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) Vehicle Side Impact Crashworthiness Evaluation Protocol were obtained. This evaluation involved a stationary test vehicle struck on the driver side by a crash cart fitted with an IIHS deformable barrier element at an impact velocity of approximately 50 kph resulting in a change of velocity of approximately 24 kph (23.8 ± 3.7 kph) of the test vehicle. Instrumented 5th percentile female SID-IIs dummies were positioned in the driver seat and the left rear seat. Head injury criterion (HIC 15), maximum lateral bending (Mx) and compression (I-S force) were calculated for all tests to evaluate head and neck loading, respectively. Qualitative and quantitative comparisons were also made for the 22 paired optional side airbag tests. Trends in the test dummy responses were compared across model years and vehicle classes (passenger light trucks and vans versus cars). There appeared to be a decrease in biomechanical loading with model year for the head and neck metrics (HIC 15, lateral bending, and compression). There were also differences observed between driver and passenger metrics. It is noteworthy that all data points were well below published injury assessment reference values for all model years and vehicle types.

A new dog clutch for automatic transmission (AT) was developed to improve transmission efficiency. With this dog clutch, it is possible to replace a conventional 1st gear clutch (combination of a multi-plate wet-type clutch and a one-way sprag clutch) in AT. The dog rotor and rotary shaft are constantly engaged through helix splines. If the dog rotor and stator are engaged, albeit a small amount, the rotary force of the dog rotor is converted to a translating force of the engaging direction. Therefore, the engaging force of the dog clutch is assisted by this translating force when it is turned on. In contrast, the direction of the translating force is inverted when the 2nd gear clutch is engaged. The dog rotor receives the disengaging force, and it is passively disengaged as in a one-way sprag clutch when shifting upward from 1st to 2nd gear. Therefore, the transmission torque of the 1st and 2nd gears does not overlap and AT torque-gap does not occur when shifting gears with the proposed dog clutch. We confirmed that the longitudinal G-gap during the gear shift was the same as that of the conventional AT in the vehicle running test. Moreover, the drag losses of the dog clutch were 50-60 % lower than those of the multi-plate wet-type clutch. When AT downshifts during power-on, it is necessary to maintain a low driving torque until the relative rotational speed between the dog rotor and stator is reduced and the dog rotor engages completely. However, the proposed dog clutch can transmit the driving torque in the middle of engaging, thus reducing the waiting time. We demonstrated that the waiting time in the simulation was reduced because of the new dog clutch. The simulation model included the edge contact of the dog tooth and the frictional resistance forces. The friction coefficients measured in the clutch unit test were used for the model. The proposed dog clutch performs better than conventional clutch; therefore, it will be convinced to apply AT as well as drivetrain of the EV and PHEV.

The capabilities of virtual development of safety systems for occupant safety are increasing with the growth of acceptance, computational power and the usability of tools. Nevertheless, nowadays car safety systems are primarily developed using single statistical representations of humans, like the 5%-ile female or the 50%-ile male body. Hence variation of anthropometry existing in the real-world is only covered to a very limited extent. Recently, several studies developed fast calculating models using methods of rigid body simulation or metamodeling. They suggested investigating rapid or even near-real-time prediction-models for variations of outer parameters, such as airbag characteristics or crash pulse. In contrast, the proposed paper aims to get insight into the impact of human body variation on its crash behavior. This behavior can then be related to a model of a specific percentile. The objective of this approach is to run one simulation with a single representation of a human body and get data for deviated models based on previous simulations. Therefore, the main advantage of this concept is the reduction of the simulation time, needed to get all results of the occupants with different sizes (body mass index, statue, the ratio of sitting height and statue). To test the feasibility of the approach, a 2D rigid body system was created as a simplified model using LS-Dyna and Python. It represents a car's occupant who is restrained by a lap and shoulder belt under the influence of a crash pulse. The joint characteristics were modeled via spring, damper and friction definitions aiming for human-like behavior. To create a database, extensive simulations were carried out by varying the dimensions of body parts, applying a Latin-Hypercube Design Of Experiments scheme. The parameter limits were taken from UMTRI's human shape database. Since the minimal model provides a very limited set of reasonable assessment channels, only kinematic responses like maximum displacement and acceleration of the head and chest were evaluated. The obtained results seem to prove expected correlations between mass and maximum acceleration as well as forward displacement. For the model's training, different combinations of features and targets are tested. For example, the results from simulations with one body measure set are used as feature-vector, while the target-vector is formed by the kinematic characteristics of diverging human representations. After normalizing the data, various regression and machine learning algorithms were applied and their performance evaluated.

The proposed paper presents a feasibility study on Time-of-Flight (ToF) cameras for Reverse Autonomous Emergency Braking systems (reverse AEB) and the application of computer vision techniques for automatic target identification in the real-time. The consumer testing organisations play an important role in the expansion of vehicle safety systems. The New Car Assessment Programme (NCAP) organisations assess vehicle safety considering different areas, for instance in Europe the rating of EuroNCAP consists of four categories: Adult Occupants, Child Occupants, Vulnerable Road Users (VRU) and Safety Assists. One of the tested systems is Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB), which activates automatically the vehicle's brakes in order to prevent or reduce the severity of a collision. The new EuroNCAP protocol, effective from January 2020, brought the application of AEB also to reverse motion of vehicles to prevent accidents with pedestrians. The Reverse AEB automatically activates brakes when a potential obstacle behind the vehicle is detected. The system has the ability to reduce a significant number of accidents, particularly during parking manoeuvres. The proposed work aims to investigate the suitability of the innovative PMD technology with a ToF Camera for the reverse AEB. Following the protocol guidelines for the assessment test conditions, the Vehicle Under Test (VUT) should be tested with speeds of -4 and -8 km/h with impact offsets of 25, 50 and 75%. The protocol considers an adult pedestrian target. However, the presented research goes beyond the requirements of the protocol and addresses the case of a certified child target, which is more dangerous because of its smaller size. The work consists of a data acquisition phase with a real ToF camera sensor in a scenario according to the guidelines of the AEB VRU Systems protocol from EuroNCAP. The camera generates point clouds information in 3D format, which is acquired at a rate of 10 FPS (frames per second). The captured 3D data are stored and used as an input for the development in MATLAB/Simulink, where the identification algorithm is implemented. It locates the child target's position and determines the distance relative to the vehicle. Further, a decision-making system decides to activate the brakes according to their limits, avoiding collision with the target on one hand side and reducing false positive issues on the other hand side. In order to simulate the braking manoeuvre, the vehicle dynamic model is developed in a MATLAB/Simulink environment. Finally, the paper summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of the application of the proposed technology.

Amongst passenger vehicles, SUVs are mainly constructed Body-on-Frame as it has better off-road capabilities. Frame design must take into consider the vehicle architecture, geometric and functional interfaces, crashworthiness and local and global stiffnesses. The stiffness of the frame directly affects critical vehicle dynamics & NVH characteristics. The vehicle frame contributes to roughly 10% of total vehicle weight. Hence, Light-weighting of the frame will result in significant weight reduction of the overall vehicle. Weight of the vehicle is a critical parameter in fuel economy, material cost and dynamics. The frame design is a critical platform architecture development as it has direct linkage to architectural dimensions and the platform modularity definitions. Currently, the frame is designed in 3D CAD and taken through a CAE loop. The frame design is iterated until it meets the pre-defined performance targets. This results in extended duration for the architecture freeze and subsequently the entire product development process. To speed up the frame design process, a method is proposed to optimize the frame design with respect to the global stiffnesses and weight at the concept stage, even before the first level CAD is prepared. The paper focuses on parameterizing the ladder frame of a vehicle, running structural simulations with a parametric beam model, correlating with the actual values and finally generating a frame concept model from optimization to be taken further for detailed engineering. The ladder frame is parameterized based on the geometry and sections of the side-members and locations and sections of the cross-members and 46 parameters were generated. The simulations were run in a commercial software where the frame was modelled as beam elements and the joints are modelled as rigid joints. Loads & constraints are applied as per the stiffness test protocols and global stiffnesses are simulated. The results from the simulation were correlated with test results as well as 3D CAE values for internal benchmarks with 90% accuracy. A Design of experiments was run which resulted in a mathematical model which was used to perform optimization. The optimization generated a concept frame with 20% weight reduction and a 50% increase in Bending and Torsional Stiffness. The results matched with 3D CAE simulation results and the frame taken forward for detailed engineering. Extremely low simulation time make it possible to run multiple iterations and perform optimization very quickly. The sensitivity and direction of goodness of each parameter which is an output from the simulation helps in further detailing the design. As this new process enables front-loading of CAE during the concept stage which accelerates the process of product development. Keywords: Frame Design, Global Stiffness, Light-weighting, Parametric Model, Concept Development

We investigate the relation between existing fiscal rules and investments in the context of a fiscal crisis in Brazil. We analyze existing fiscal rules at national and subnational levels, their enforcement, and proposed alternatives. Using narrative analysis, case studies, interviews, empirical estimation, and model simulations, we conclude that public investment is not closely related to fiscal rules in Brazil but is mainly determined by fiscal conditions both at national and subnational (state) levels. It is the steady increase of personnel expenditures in real terms that underlies the fiscal deterioration of the last decade, despite the existence of fiscal rules devised to prevent it. We argue that a constitutional rule limiting subnationals personnel expenditures to 50 percent of net revenues, triggering adjustment measures when reaching 47.5 percent, would be an effective instrument for subnational fiscal management, opening fiscal space for increasing investments. At the national level, despite the existence of several fiscal rules, the only effective fiscal anchor is the primary expenditure ceiling introduced in 2016, which has successfully curbed expenditures, including those of the judiciary and legislature.

We study the optimal one-shot tax reform in the standard incomplete markets model where households differ in their wealth, earnings, permanent labor skill, and age. The government can provide transfers by raising tax revenue and has several tax instruments at its disposal: a flat capital income tax, a flat consumption tax, and a non-linear labor income tax. The optimal fiscal policy funds a transfer that is nearly 50 percent of GDP through a combination of very high taxes on consumption and capital income. The labor tax schedule has a high average rate but is also moderately progressive. We find an identical outcome when policy is instead determined by majority voting. Finally, we offer suggestive empirical evidence that households’ preferences for tax and redistribution are more strongly associated with political identity than economic status.

This paper presents projections for 18 Latin America and Caribbean countries of pensions and health expenditures over the next 50 years, compares them to advanced countries, and calculates estimates of the fiscal gap due to aging. The exercise is crucial since life expectancy is increasing and fertility rates are declining in virtually all advanced countries and many developing countries, but more so in Latin America and the Caribbean. While the populations of many of the regions countries are still relatively young, they are aging more rapidly than those in more developed countries. The fiscal implications of these demographic trends are severe. The paper proposes policy and institutional reforms that could begin to be implemented immediately and that could help moderate these trends in light of relevant international experience to date. It suggests that LAC countries need to include an intertemporal numerical fiscal limit or rule to the continuous increase in aging spending while covering the needs of the more vulnerable. They should consider also complementing public pensions with voluntary contribution mechanisms supported by tax incentives, such as those used in Australia, New Zealand (Kiwi Saver), and the United States (401k). In addition, LAC countries face an urgent challenge in curbing the growth of health care costs, while improving the quality of care. Efforts should focus on improving both the allocative and the technical efficiency of public health spending.

Nigeria is faced with substantial economic and health burdens caused by tobacco smoking. The economic burden of smoking accounts for approximately 1.3 per cent of Nigeria's GDP. In terms of its health impact, 4.9 per cent of all deaths in 2019 were attributed to smokingrelated diseases. The thousands of Nigerians that die annually from tobacco-induced diseases are no longer able to contribute productively to the economy. Tobacco taxation is one very effective mechanism for reducing the burden of smoking. This paper measures and benchmarks the economic gains and the number of lives that could be saved through increased tobacco taxation in Nigeria. Should the government of Nigeria increase the excise tax to 240 Naira per pack (together with an ad valorem tax of 50 per cent of the CIF/ex-works price), our model predicts that, over 30 years, nearly 150,000 premature deaths could be avoided. This is in addition to the more than 150 per cent increase in government revenue that would also result. The model indicates that the larger the increase in the excise tax, the greater would be its fiscal and public health impact.

This paper examines the widespread perception in India that the country has an acute teacher shortage of about one million teachers in public elementary schools, a view repeated in India’s National Education Policy 2020. Using official DISE data, we show that teacher vacancies cannot be equated with teacher shortages: while the number of teacher vacancies (in teacher-deficit schools) is 766,487, the number of teacher surpluses (in surplus-teacher schools) is 520,141, giving a net deficit of only 246,346 teachers in the country. Secondly, removing estimated fake student numbers from enrolment data greatly reduces the required number of teachers and raises the number of surplus teachers, converting the net deficit of 246,346 teachers into an estimated net surplus of 98,371 teachers. Thirdly, if we both remove estimated fake enrolment and also make a hypothetical change to the teacher allocation rule to adjust for the phenomenon of emptying public schools (which has slashed the national median size of public schools to a mere 63 students, and rendered many schools ‘tiny’), the estimated net teacher surplus rises to 239,800 teachers. Fourthly, we show that if government does fresh recruitment to fill the supposed approximately one-million vacancies as promised in National Education Policy 2020, the already modest national mean pupil-teacher-ratio of 25.1 would fall to 19.9, at a permanently increased fiscal cost of nearly Rupees 637 billion (USD 8.7 billion) per year in 2019-20 prices, which is higher than the individual GDPs of 50 countries that year. The paper highlights the major efficiencies that can result from evidence-based policy on minimum viable school-size, teacher allocation norms, permissible maximum pupil teacher ratios, and teacher deployment.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.