Dissertations / Theses on the topic '1991-2007'

Unelected bureaucrats make a broad range of important policy decisions raising concerns of accountability in a democratic society. Many classics in the literature highlight the need to understand agency decisions at stages prior to the final vote by agency appointees, but few studies of the bureaucracy do so. To this point, scholars have treated the issue of shirking as one where laziness and inefficiency are the driving forces. However, it is more realistic to expect that shirking comes in the form of ideological resistance by administrators. I develop a theory that the independence afforded to the bureaucracy is functionally comparable to that of the judiciary, allowing for the insertion of individual attitudinal preferences by bureaucrats. Drawing from the attitudinal model of judicial research, I look at whether attitudes affect the decision making of administrative law judges at the National Labor Relations Board, the influence administrative law judge decisions have on reviewing bodies, and whether attitudinal decision making can be controlled by external political and legal actors. Results demonstrate that Democratic judges are more likely than Republican judges to rule for labor in unfair labor practice cases, administrative law judge decisions provide the basis for subsequent decisions of reviewing bodies, and that few political and legal controls exist over this set of bureaucrats. This research provides evidence that lower level bureaucrats make decisions based on their own political preferences and that these preferences have far ranging consequences for policy and law.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T20:23:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Joaquim Fernandes Filho.pdf: 10624012 bytes, checksum: f30d934b6bd16f43578df1cdcdf6da67 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-05-10<br>This study has as main concern the issue of employment for the population of a city, where Mogi das Cruzes-SP, especially in the industrial sector. This concern is due to some factors that demand management issues and urban and regional planning with an emphasis on industrialization and its variations during the study period. A concern arose during a period of avoidance of industries that were transforming the city into what it was called the "dormitory towns where the population resides in one place, but have to travel to far to find another job. It is important to understand why the focus on the issue of job opportunities in the industry in order to take the industry as a driving force of development around which set out the other business segments such as trade and services. In the municipalities the historical model more common to find the one who comes from rural activities aimed at agriculture and livestock. Although the city under study has maintained a vast area of agricultural production known as the Big Green Belt , the number of occupations in this segment has become less and less and like most of the Brazilian rural population gradually moved to the urban area. In such context the purpose of this study was to examine the role and effectiveness of public policies on the municipal level in promoting the industrialization process and its recovery over the study period<br>O presente estudo tem como principal preocupação a questão do emprego para a população de uma cidade, no caso Mogi das Cruzes-SP, especialmente no segmento industrial. Esta inquietação deve-se a alguns fatores que demandam questões de gestão e de planejamento urbano e regional com ênfase no processo de industrialização e suas variações ao longo do período do estudo. A preocupação surgiu durante um período de evasão de indústrias que estava transformando a cidade naquilo que convenciona-se chamar de Cidade Dormitório quando a população reside num lugar, mas, tem que deslocar-se a outro distante para encontrar trabalho. É importante compreender o porque do foco na questão das oportunidades de trabalho na indústria tendo em vista que tomamos a indústria como elemento polarizador do desenvolvimento ao redor da qual estabelecem-se os demais segmentos de negócios tais como o comércio e a prestação de serviços. Nos municípios brasileiros o modelo histórico mais comum de se encontrar é aquele que tem origem nas atividades rurais voltadas à agricultura e à pecuária. Embora o município em estudo tenha mantido uma vasta área produtiva de agricultura denominada Cinturão Verde, a quantidade de ocupações neste segmento tornou-se cada vez menor e a exemplo da maioria dos municípios brasileiros a população rural gradativamente transferiu-se para a área urbana. Diante deste quadro o propósito do presente estudo foi o de verificar o papel e a eficácia das políticas públicas de âmbito municipal no fomento ao processo de industrialização, bem como de sua recuperação ao longo do período estudado

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T14:58:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Joaquim Fernandes Filho.pdf: 10624012 bytes, checksum: f30d934b6bd16f43578df1cdcdf6da67 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-05-10<br>This study has as main concern the issue of employment for the population of a city, where Mogi das Cruzes-SP, especially in the industrial sector. This concern is due to some factors that demand management issues and urban and regional planning with an emphasis on industrialization and its variations during the study period. A concern arose during a period of avoidance of industries that were transforming the city into what it was called the "dormitory towns where the population resides in one place, but have to travel to far to find another job. It is important to understand why the focus on the issue of job opportunities in the industry in order to take the industry as a driving force of development around which set out the other business segments such as trade and services. In the municipalities the historical model more common to find the one who comes from rural activities aimed at agriculture and livestock. Although the city under study has maintained a vast area of agricultural production known as the Big Green Belt , the number of occupations in this segment has become less and less and like most of the Brazilian rural population gradually moved to the urban area. In such context the purpose of this study was to examine the role and effectiveness of public policies on the municipal level in promoting the industrialization process and its recovery over the study period<br>O presente estudo tem como principal preocupação a questão do emprego para a população de uma cidade, no caso Mogi das Cruzes-SP, especialmente no segmento industrial. Esta inquietação deve-se a alguns fatores que demandam questões de gestão e de planejamento urbano e regional com ênfase no processo de industrialização e suas variações ao longo do período do estudo. A preocupação surgiu durante um período de evasão de indústrias que estava transformando a cidade naquilo que convenciona-se chamar de Cidade Dormitório quando a população reside num lugar, mas, tem que deslocar-se a outro distante para encontrar trabalho. É importante compreender o porque do foco na questão das oportunidades de trabalho na indústria tendo em vista que tomamos a indústria como elemento polarizador do desenvolvimento ao redor da qual estabelecem-se os demais segmentos de negócios tais como o comércio e a prestação de serviços. Nos municípios brasileiros o modelo histórico mais comum de se encontrar é aquele que tem origem nas atividades rurais voltadas à agricultura e à pecuária. Embora o município em estudo tenha mantido uma vasta área produtiva de agricultura denominada Cinturão Verde, a quantidade de ocupações neste segmento tornou-se cada vez menor e a exemplo da maioria dos municípios brasileiros a população rural gradativamente transferiu-se para a área urbana. Diante deste quadro o propósito do presente estudo foi o de verificar o papel e a eficácia das políticas públicas de âmbito municipal no fomento ao processo de industrialização, bem como de sua recuperação ao longo do período estudado

The thesis develops an empirically based explanation for the variation in the voting behavior of Brazilian parties in roll calls in the Câmara dos Deputados and in the Senado Federal. Assuming that party discipline is positively related to the amount of leeway in conducting legislative and voting processes granted the President and party bosses, the explanation explores the following propositions: 1) stimuli derived from the electoral arena influence the chain of delegation when it comes to actual voting; 2) such stimuli and others deriving from the party organization, in combination with the party directives in its dealings with the government, explain some of the variation in party discipline in each legislative house; 3) taking each legislative house as the unity of research, the variation is positively related to differences in the level of autonomy granted the party leaders. The explanation thus focuses on the institutions both from their internal and external dynamics. Chapter 2 shows how formal regulation of the principle of representation providesstimuli to delegating power to party leaders in the Câmara dos Deputados and in the Senado Federal. Research findings indicate that procedural provisions aiming at facilitating collective action induce to wider extension of delegation in the lower house than it is the case in the Senado. Following these findings, chapter 3 compares the regimental prerogatives of party leaders in both houses. This analysis leads to theconclusion that members of the lower house must rely more on the support of party leaders in order to maximize their preferences when specific policies are voted and when vying for political offices than it is the case with senators. However, when tested, the hypothesis that parties display greater discipline in the Câmara than in the Senado was not proved. When comparing regimental prerogatives, one finds that some changes in prevailing rules enhance the power of the parties as such. We argue that such changes do not derive from practical imperatives of collective action. Chapter 4 focuses on the delegation to the executive branch of government, following a line of explanation developed by Shugart and Carey (1992), who assume that this prerogative is linkedto the delegation to parties. We detected rule alteration aiming at increasing the control over the power of delegation as established in 1988 or at minimizing its range. These alterations are seen as setting a new pattern of balance between the legislative and the executive branches of government. Taking this institutional framework as a background, an interpretation of the dynamics of presidential andcongressional elections is presented in chapter 5. Research findings at this level show that stimuli derived from coalitions and electoral outcomes, as well as from negotiations concerning voting in roll calls explain both constitutional and regimental changes and observed variation in party discipline in the lower and upper legislative houses.The research findings highlight three main features of the present-day Brazilian political system. First, the consolidation of parties, especially the ones competing in presidential elections. Given the political efficiency of this level of elections and their influence over congressional elections, the politicians who run more than once tend to favor centralization in their strategies to influence electoral and parliamentary arenas. From this analytical perspective, the conclusion that Brazilian political partiesare poorly institutionalized, mostly provincial in their performance, decentralized and feckless must be qualified. Second, a new pattern of balance between the legislative and the executive branches of government is under way. The procedures of the delegation to legislate are being altered due to influences stemming from the electoral arena and this process of change points to the strengthening of thelegislative branch of government in its dealings with the executive. Third, the research findings also show that party discipline and the growing importance of parties in the congressional dynamics are not independent from incentives connected to the electoral arena, that is, while the existing electoral laws enhance political parochialism, the actual dynamics of elections stimulates strategies of concerted action in the electoral and parliamentary arenas.<br>A investigação busca explicar a variação no comportamento dos partidos nas votações nominais da Câmara dos Deputados e do Senado Federal. Partindo da tese de que a disciplina dos partidos brasileiros é estimulada pela forte delegação ao Executivo e às lideranças partidárias, a explicação proposta estruturas e nas seguintes proposições: (1) a cadeia de delegação legislativa é influenciadapelos estímulos forjados na arena eleitoral; (2) esses estímulos e aqueles que advêm da arena organizacional partidária, combinados com o posicionamento frente ao governo, explicam parte da variação na disciplina dos partidos em cada uma das Casas legislativas; (3) entre as Casas, a variação está relacionada com as diferenças na delegação às lideranças. Assim, ao longo da argumentação, as instituições são tratadas de forma exógena e endógena. No segundo capítulo, são comparados os estímulos que orientam a delegação aos líderes, colocados pela legislação que regula a constituição da representação na Câmara e no Senado. Constatamos que aqueles orientados para a superação dos imperativos práticos da ação coletiva motivam maior delegação na Câmara que no Senado. Essa hipótese é verificada no terceiro capítulo, onde são comparadas as prerrogativas regimentais dos líderes nas duas Casas. Verificamos que, para maximizar suas preferências por políticas e por cargos, os deputados são maisdependentes de seus líderes que os senadores. A partir disso, enunciamos a hipótese de que os partidos na Câmara são mais disciplinados que no Senado, o que não é comprovado pelos testes realizados. Na comparação das prerrogativas regimentais, verificamos alterações que fortalecem o poder dos partidos. Sugerimos que elas não se explicam pelos imperativos práticos da ação coletiva. Partindo da argumentação de Shugart e Carey (1992), que sugerem que a delegação ao Executivo está relacionada com a delegação aos partidos, mapeamos, no quarto capítulo, a delegação ao Executivo.Verificamos alterações tendentes a controlar melhor, se não a mitigar, a delegação instituída em 1988. Dadas essas alterações, que apontam para um novo equilíbrio entre os Poderes Executivo e Legislativo, voltamos, no quinto capítulo, à arena eleitoral para investigar a dinâmica das eleições presidenciais e congressuais. Pela análise das coligações e dos resultados eleitorais, dos encaminhamentos das lideranças e dos votos dos parlamentares nas votações nominais, verificamos que,da dinâmica eleitoral, emergem estímulos que explicam tanto as alterações constitucionais e regimentais quanto a variação na disciplina partidária em cada uma das Casas legislativas. Os resultados apontam três aspectos importantes do sistema político brasileiro atual.O primeiro é o fortalecimento dos partidos, especificamente daqueles que participam reiteradamente das eleições presidenciais. Dada a eficiência dessas eleições e sua influência sobre o desempenho dos partidos nas eleições congressuais, os competidores reiterados do cargo presidencial são estimulados a centralizar mais sua ação política nas arenas eleitoral e parlamentar. Assim, o argumento de que osistema partidário brasileiro é constituído por partidos fracos, descentralizados, fracamente institucionalizados e nacionalizados não mais se aplica indistintamente. O segundo é a tendência para um novo equilíbrio entre os Poderes Legislativo e Executivo. A avaliação da evolução da estrutura de delegação legislativa, a partir dos estímulos forjados na arena eleitoral, aponta para o fortalecimento do PoderLegislativo vis-à-vis o Poder Executivo. Por fim, a discussão mostra que a disciplina e o partidarismo que marcam a dinâmica congressual atual não ocorrem à revelia dos incentivos que emergem da arena eleitoral: enquanto a legislação eleitoral estimula o paroquialismo, a dinâmica das eleições incentiva uma atuação partidária mais concertada nas arenas eleitoral e parlamentar.

En ce début de XXIe siècle, des forces nouvelles bouleversent les équilibres existants, elles s'appellent progrès technologiques et mondialisation des marchés. L'université publique, avec ses missions de formation, d'information, de recherche et d'innovation se doit de réagir à ces changements ; Comment réagir ? L'enseignement supérieur public au Liban est censé répondre aux besoins des étudiants et de la société. Durant une trentaine d'année, l'Université Libanaise, seule université publique, a subi les conséquences de la guerre sur un plan socioéconomique et politique. Elle souffre d'une forte centralisation des pouvoirs de décisions qui la paralyse durant les périodes de conflits. Comment une politique et une gouvernance autonomes de l'UL pourront-elles favoriser la réalisation d'objectifs économiques et sociaux essentiels? Nous faisons un état des lieux à travers un diagnostic des différents problèmes au sein de l'UL et des propositions basées sur les bonnes pratiques dans les universités publiques dans différents pays du monde, autour de trois axes : l'organisation académique, la gestion administrative et la politique financière. Nos hypothèses se trouvent globalement validées à travers une analyse appuyée par des entrevues non structurées et une démarche d'observation participante de dix ans. Les réponses: une politique nationale, appuyée par une gouvernance autonome de l'UL, recrutement autonome des enseignants, des chercheurs et du personnel administratif, définition de l'offre de formation et du contenu des cours, évaluation par contrôle interne et par des pairs. Des pratiques autonomes basées sur un financement en fonction des performances<br>In the early twenty-first century, new forces change existing balances; they are called technological advances and globalization of markets. The public university, with its missions of training, information, research and innovation has to react to these changes; how to react? The public higher education in Lebanon is expected to meet the needs of students and society. During the last thirty years, the Lebanese University, the only public university, has suffered the consequences of war on a socio-economically and politically plan. It endures from a strong centralization of the powers of decisions which paralyses it during the periods of conflicts. How can the autonomous policy and governance of UL promote the realization of essential economic and social objectives? We made an appraisal across a diagnosis of different problems within UL and proposals based on good practices in the public universities in different countries of the world, around three axes: the academical organization, administrative management and financial policy. Our hypotheses are generally validated by an analysis supported by not structured meetings and a participant observation of ten years. The answers: a national policy, supported by a self-governance of the UL, autonomous recruitment of teachers, researchers and administrative staff, definition of training and course content, evaluation and internal control by peers. Autonomous practices based on a financing according to performances, a plan of establishment and a contract of objectives

Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-11T13:57:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO - TELMA SANTOS DO NASCIMENTO.pdf: 2544307 bytes, checksum: 4d5b68fa18b67f023f2bca032fd6efe8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-11-20<br>Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Amazonas<br>The study of small and medium cities in the Amazon State shows profiles of important economic and social structure for the Western Amazon. The functions performed by these cities show an interesting role if linked to weather conditions. This study aimed to characterize the atmospheric circulation of the main phenomena of time in cities in the gutter of the Solimoes-Amazon River, from 1991 to 2007, analyzed by two variables: rainfall and wind. The cities selected were Benjamin Constant, Fonte Boa, Tefé, Coari, Codajás, Manaus, Itacoatiara and Parintins. In an attempt to understand whether there were variations in meteorological variables due to the quantitative population affecting the weather of each city, a literature review of the main precipitation systems operating in the region since the large-scale circulation was carried out, mesoscale and synoptic. The methodology was based on data from the National Institute of Meteorology (for precipitation) and reanalysis data (for wind). Owing to lack and absence of data in the series studied it was necessary to apply the technique of filling of flaws based on statistical calculations of linear regression from which the CPC data were evaluated and used to replace the missing data. The main results allowed to create a temporary climatological normal (1991-2000) and compare the values to each city under study. The results of the wind showed the presence and the displacement of the Bolivian High (AB) at high levels in the troposphere during the months of September, October and November (the period close to the wet season) showing its influence in the rainfall. Given the values of precipitation and wind for characterization of atmospheric conditions in the gutter of the river, for further analysis it is necessary to check other climate elements: temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, etc.<br>O estudo de cidades médias e pequenas no estado do Amazonas revela perfis importantes de estruturação econômica e social para a Amazônia Ocidental. As funções exercidas por essas cidades mostram um interessante papel se associadas às condições atmosféricas. Esta pesquisa teve como objetivo caracterizar a circulação atmosférica dos principais fenômenos de tempo em cidades na calha do rio Solimões-Amazonas, no período de 1991 a 2007, analisados por meio de duas variáveis: precipitação pluvial e vento. As cidades selecionadas foram Benjamin Constant, Fonte Boa, Tefé, Coari, Codajás, Manaus, Itacoatiara e Parintins. Na tentativa de compreender se havia variações nas variáveis meteorológicas por conta do quantitativo populacional afetando as condições do tempo de cada cidade fez-se uma revisão bibliográfica dos principais sistemas precipitantes que atuam na região desde a circulação de grande escala, mesoescala e sinótica. A metodologia baseou-se em dados do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (para precipitação) e de dados de Reanálise (para o vento). Pela carência de dados e pela própria ausência na série pesquisada foi necessário aplicar técnica de preenchimento de falhas com base em cálculos estatísticos de regressão linear dos quais foram avaliados os dados do CPC e estes substituíram os dados faltantes. Os principais resultados permitiram construir a normal climatológica provisória (1991-2000) e comparar os valores com cada cidade em estudo. Os resultados dos ventos, demonstraram a presença e o deslocamento da Alta da Bolívia (AB) em altos níveis, durante os meses de setembro, outubro e novembro (período próximo da estação chuvosa) mostrando sua influência nas chuvas na região. Considerando os valores de precipitação e do vento para caracterização das condições atmosféricas na calha do rio, para futuras análises é preciso verificar outros elementos climáticos: temperatura, umidade relativa, pressão atmosférica, etc.

Cette thèse porte sur la construction, la pratique et les usages de la Politique Européenne de Sécurité et de Défense depuis les années 1990. L'enjeu est d'étudier cette politique en privilégiant un angle d'approche franco-allemand au départ, et en mettant en œuvre une démarche comparative entre les deux pays, afin de saisir les pratiques, les représentations mais également les points d'achoppement de cette politique de défense d'un type inédit. L'objet « Politique Européenne de Sécurité et de Défense » se situe à la croisée des relations internationales, de l'analyse des politiques publique, de la sociologie de l'action publique, des processus d'européanisation et peut donc faire l'objet d'approches très différentes selon les variables qu'on entend privilégier. Nous avons choisi de l'étudier autrement selon une démarche de sociologie historique et constructiviste qui nous conduit à privilégier certains concepts clés : sociologie des acteurs (trajectoires, habitus et ethos professionnels), configurations de relations entre acteurs structurant un nouvel espace social d’interactions, accent mis sur les processus de socialisation et d’apprentissage. D'un point de vue méthodologique, cette thèse s'appuie sur une démarche qualitative et privilégie l'usage de l’entretien semi-directif : le corpus se compose de 135 entretiens, complétés par la lecture de la presse, de la littérature spécialisée et grise sur le sujet. Elle se compose de trois parties, découpées en 9 chapitres totaux. Dans une première partie, la thèse se concentre sur la genèse de la politique européenne de défense en prenant en compte tant les facteurs conjoncturels que structurels, en l'occurrence le cadre de socialisation de la coopération militaire franco-allemande. Cela correspond à la phase d'émergence et de « mise à l’agenda » de cette politique. Cette partie précise le contexte géopolitique initial particulier qui a constitué une première fenêtre d’opportunité (fin de la guerre froide, réforme de l'OTAN) et souligne le rôle d'entrepreneurs politiques du président Mitterrand et du chancelier Kohl et de leur relation étroite. Elle revient ensuite sur la tentative avortée de constitution d’une Communauté européenne de défense (CED) au début des années 1950 afin de montrer que la Politique Européenne de Sécurité et de Défense ne naît pas ex nihilo, mais s'inscrit dans une longue tradition de réflexion et de tentatives en matière de défense de l'Europe. Enfin, cette partie précise le contexte et le jeu des différents acteurs à l'origine du développement progressif de cette politique aujourd'hui : rôle de l’expérience de l'éclatement de l'ex Yougoslavie, action déterminante des acteurs diplomatique qui prennent le relais des politiques, entrée plus tardive des acteurs militaires<br>This dissertation deals with the construction, practices and legitimating uses of the European Security and Defence Policy since the 1990's. First we study the genesis of the European defence policy taking into account short-term factors opening a policy window (the end of the Cold War, the Balkan conflicts, NATO's reform) as well as structural factors, in this case the socializing framework of the French-German military cooperation. We demonstrate the political entrepreneurship of Mitterrand and Kohl seizing this policy window. They were later taken over by the diplomatic services of the EU states. Secondly we analyze the construction of the European defence policy as a specific social figuration within the EU framework. This new social figuration, relying on proper organs and on intergovernmentalism, interplays with the national defence figurations structured in time, modifying the interdependence games between the capitals and Brussels, and between the main actors groups (in this case officers, diplomats and defence civil servants). Moreover this ESDP figuration is deeply affected and modelled by the weight of the socialization of theses actors on a threefold level : national, professional and institutional. These several socialization weigh on the way theses actors daily practice and conceive the European defence policy. Indeed this new social space is invested on different ways by each categories of actors (military and diplomatic/civilian). Last but not least, the national security cultures are still very pregnant and go on framing ESDP in different ways according to the security representations of each state. This raises legitimating questions for this policy. Eventually European Security and Defence Policy does not aim at building a Euro-army, but fulfils latent functions as a political and symbolic substitute for European security action in the world. These latent functions appear to be at least as important as, if not more than, its manifest functions of reactivity to crisis. Thus ESDP aims at helping construct politically an international role for the EU in security matters

En la tesis se analiza el comportamiento de los tipos de interés cruzados en las operaciones dobles realizadas con Deuda del Estado a medio y largo plazo durante el periodo que abarca desde enero de 1991 hasta diciembre de 2007. Se analiza en este segmento, en primer lugar, el cumplimiento de la teoría de las expectativas racionales (TER) utilizando como metodología el análisis de cointegración; y en segundo lugar se valora la existencia de diferenciales significativos entre la rentabilidad de los dos tipos de operaciones dobles que se pueden realizar en el mercado español: las operaciones con pacto de recompra o repos y las simultáneas. Ambos análisis se han planteado para todo el periodo de estudio y para la muestra segmentada considerando como punto de corte el 1 de enero de 1999, fecha en que se inicia la política monetaria única en la zona euro y se redenomina a euros la deuda pública, con el objetivo de detectar si todo ello ha podido influir en el comportamiento de los tipos de interés cruzados en operaciones dobles sobre Deuda del Estado a medio y largo plazo. En el segundo capítulo Relaciones de equilibrio a largo plazo en el mercado de operaciones dobles con Deuda del Estado, hemos contrastado si se cumplen las tres implicaciones de la formulación de la teoría de las expectativas racionales (TER) de Campbell y Shiller (1987, 1991) expuestas en Hall, Anderson y Granger (1992), en el mercado de operaciones dobles con Deuda del Estado a medio y largo plazo durante el periodo que abarca desde enero de 1991 hasta diciembre de 2007. Se han considerado los tipos de interés cruzados en estas operaciones con vencimientos a 1 día, 1 semana, 1 mes, 3 meses y 6 meses. Se han llevado a cabo dos tipos de análisis; en primer lugar, el univariante, destinado a contrastar que los tipos de interés son series integradas de orden 1 y que los spreads de tipos al contado con diferente vencimiento son series estacionarias. Por otra parte, llevamos a cabo un análisis multivariante, consistente en la contrastación del rango de cointegración de cinco tipos de interés spot. Según la Teoría de las Expectativas Racionales de la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés, el rango de cointegración debería ser cuatro. Así, en cuanto al cumplimiento de la teoría de las expectativas racionales analizado en este capítulo, concluimos que en las operaciones simultáneas con Bonos y Obligaciones del Estado, en la fase posterior al inicio de la última fase de la Unión Económica y Monetaria, el período 1999 a 2007, se obtienen evidencias favorables a ésta. Así, al detectarse en el sistema de 5 tipos de interés analizados una única tendencia estocástica común, ya que el rango de cointegración es 4, se puede intuir que la dinámica de los tipos de interés en el mercado de operaciones simultáneas puede quedar bien explicada a partir de modelos unifactoriales de la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés, donde únicamente se contemplen movimientos paralelos de la misma. Por el contrario, en las series de tipos de interés cruzados en operaciones repo con Bonos y Obligaciones del Estado no hemos hallado evidencias favorables al cumplimiento de la TER en ninguno de los períodos analizados. En el tercer capítulo Análisis del diferencial entre operaciones dobles en el mercado de Deuda del Estado, nos hemos planteado, por las similitudes existentes entre las operaciones con pacto de recompra y las simultáneas, si el mercado las valora de forma similar o si por el contrario, se incluye una prima de rentabilidad en alguna de ellas. Los resultados obtenidos nos indican la existencia de un sobrerendimiento significativo de las simultáneas frente a las repo en todos los vencimientos del mercado. Este diferencial es creciente a medida que aumenta el plazo de las operaciones dobles hasta el vencimiento 1 mes, para todos los períodos analizados; y en general, éstos presentan mayor volatilidad a medida que aumenta el vencimiento de la operación. Esta sobrerentabilidad que hemos hallado en los tipos de interés de las operaciones simultáneas puede venir explicada por la existencia de primas de liquidez: al analizar el volumen de negocio realizado a través de repos y simultáneas en el mercado de Bonos y Obligaciones del Estado no segregados hemos comprobado que el volumen negociado en las operaciones repo supera al de las simultáneas en plazos a 1 día, que a su vez, es el vencimiento que aglutina el mayor volumen de negocio. Finalmente, estos resultados no parecen haberse visto afectados por la adopción de la moneda única; ya que no hemos encontrado diferencias significativas en el comportamiento de los diferenciales.

En 1990, l'Iraq envahit le Koweït. A l'issue d'une guerre à sens unique, le Conseil de sécurité des Nations Unies impose avec la résolution 687 (1991), le désarmement de l'Irak au moyen d'un système d'inspections - vérification de ses Armes de Destruction Massives. Ce régime juridique perdurera jusqu'à la résolution 1762 (2007), comme moyen de pression sur le régime irakien. Il ne disparaîtra qu'une fois celui-ci vaincu par la conjugaison des conséquences de la guerre du golfe, des sanctions économiques, de la guerre d'attrition conduite de 1991 à 2002 et par une agression armée en 2003. Le mandat de désarmement de l’Iraq a été confié à l’Agence Internationale de l’Energie Atomique (AIEA) et à la Commission Spéciale des Nations Unies, puis à l’AIEA et à la Commission de Contrôle et de Vérification en Iraq des Nations Unies. Parallèlement, les sanctions économiques adoptées pour faire évacuer le Koweït sont maintenues 13 ans. Elles reposeront sur la résolution 986 (1995) dite pétrole contre nourriture et causeront 1 500 000 décès. L'Irak sera également soumis à une coercition militaire et une ingérence permanentes : imposition de deux Zones d'Exclusion Aérienne, tentatives de déstabilisation du régime, raids successifs. En 2003, cet Etat est l’objet d’une invasion puis d’une occupation, justifiées par les présences d'ADM, demeurées introuvables, mais n’ayant qu'un seul objectif : renverser le régime. En définitive, l'espèce irakienne démontre le caractère primitif du droit international qui a permis que l'activité normative arbitraire du Conseil de sécurité des Nations Unies et l'unilatéralisme des Etats-Unis, soient la source de la destruction d'un Etat et d'un peuple<br>In 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait. After a one-sided war, the Security Council with UN resolution 687 (1991), requires the disarmament of Iraq through a system of inspections - checking his Weapons of Massive Destruction. This legal regime will continue until resolution 1762 (2007) as a means of pressuring the Iraqi regime. It will not disappear once it defeated by the combined effects of the Gulf War, economic sanctions, war of attrition conducted from 1991 to 2002 and an armed attack in 2003. The mandate of disarming Iraq has been entrusted to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and United Nations Special Commission and the IAEA and the United Nations Commission of Control and Audit in Iraq. Economic sanctions adopted to evacuate Kuwait are maintained 13 years. They will be based on resolution 986 (1995) said oil against food and cause 1. 5 million deaths. Iraq will also be subjected to military coercion and interference permanent: imposition of two no-fly zones, attempts to destabilize the regime, successive raids. In 2003, this state is subject to invasion and occupation, justified by the presence of WMD remained unaccounted for, but with only one objective: to overthrow the regime. Ultimately, the Iraqi case demonstrates the primitif character of international law that allowed arbitrary legislative activity of the Security Council of UN and unilateralism of the United States, are the source of the destruction of a state and of a people

Att använda erfarenheter, i form av principer, vid militär planering är inget nytt fenomen. SedanNapoleontiden har det vuxit fram riktlinjer för militär planering och genomförande i form avKrigföringens grundprinciper och principer för att skapa en framgångsrik logistik. Exempel påprinciper och hur de ska tolkas finns i de flesta av världens försvarsmakters doktriner.Syftet med uppsatsen är att ge exempel på hur principer för logistik kan användas för att reflekteraöver de logistiska utmaningar, som en befälhavare eller stabsofficer ställs inför vid en militärplanering.Som empiri, för att värdera principerna mot, har Falklandkriget 1982 och Gulfkriget 1991, med ettbrittiskt/amerikansk perspektiv använts. De är båda konventionella krig med ett tydligt militärtslutmål, men har väldigt olika förutsättningar för logistiken i både en tid-, rum- ochstyrkejämförelse.Uppsatsen använder abduktion som metod. Fem principer för logistik bildar hypoteser förframgång som ställs mot empirin, i form av de två krigen. Krigen ställs mot varandra, medprinciperna som analysverktyg, och komparationens likheter och skillnader gör det möjligt attvärdera och dra slutsatser av principernas innebörd.Resultatet visar att principerna har ett värde och analysen ger vid handen ett flertal slutsatser somkan användas vid militär planering. Principerna ska inte ses som ett krav som måste uppnås för attnå framgång, utan som stöd och riktlinjer för att ta tillvara beprövad erfarenhet.<br>Using experience, in the form of principles, in military planning is not a new phenomenon. SinceNapoleon there has been development of guidelines for military planning and execution in theform of Principles of War and principles for creating successful logistics. Examples of principlescan be found in most of the world’s defense forces’ doctrines.The overall aim of the thesis is to give examples of how to use principles for logistics to reflecton the logistic challenges you face, as a commander or a staff officer, in military planning.The empirical material used to test the principles against are the Falkland War and the Gulf War,from a British/American perspective. They are both conventional wars with a clear military endstate, but differ a lot in the logistic requirements, both in a time-, space- and forces comparison.The thesis uses the method of abduction. Five principles of logistics make five hypotheses forsuccess that are contrasted with the empirical evidence, in the form of the two wars. The wars arecompared to each other, with the principles as analytic tools, and the similarity and thedifferences in the comparison make it possible to draw conclusions about the principles’ content.The result shows that the principles have value and the analysis gives a number of conclusionsthat can be used in military planning. The principles should not be seen as requirements forsuccess, but rather as a support of, and as guidelines for your planning in order to make use ofprevious experience.<br>Avdelning: ALB – Slutet Mag. 3 C-upps. Hylla: Upps. ChP 07-09

Ce travail constitue une réflexion sur le rôle structurel des migrants et des réfugiés sur l'évolution des relations internationales au sein du monde arabe et sur les institutions politiques dans la région. En partant de l’étude des itinéraires individuels et des formes de mobilisation des communautés transnationales érythréennes, on propose une sociologie politique de la mobilité à l’échelle régionale. À cette analyse des réseaux de la migration et des formes de la mobilité, on affronte l’étude des institutions de gestion de la migration et de l’asile dans les pays d’accueil. On constate l’échec relatif des politiques migratoires et des politiques «anti-intégration» menées par les pays d’accueil et les ambiguïtés de la «gestion» des migrations par l’État diasporique érythréen. Le contrôle par les États de la mobilité et de l’intégration ou la ségrégation sociale et politique des migrants dans les pays d’accueil, se heurtent à la résistance du «fait migratoire», des réseaux historiques de l’asile et la permanence des déterminants de l’exil. On constate en revanche un «effet retour» de la mobilité sur la capacité des États de la région : le processus social de longue durée qu’est l’exil érythréen met en question la souveraineté des État sur leurs territoires et leurs population et induit des transformations au sein des institutions politiques des pays de la région. La mobilité est donc envisagée comme un facteur de transformation politique à l’échelle du champ migratoire que l’on observe<br>This thesis analyzes the role played by migrants and refugee from Eritrea in the evolution of international relations in the Arab world and on the political transformations in the countries of origin and the countries of asylum and immigration. Starting with individual itineraries and collective mobilization within diasporic communities, we describe the sociological functioning of migration networks around the Red sea. We compare this sociology of Eritrean migrations to the strategies and management devices used by States, governmental and inter-governmental organizations to control fluxes and diasporic communities. We reckon that migration policies and integration policies fail considering the resilience of the social and political processes favoring mobility and settlement of Eritrean abroad in the Arab world. We claim that mobility itself is a factor of political change in a context of low institutionnal integration and that migration, through social and informal way, provokes crucial political transformations at the national and regional level

This thesis explored the role of the six wealthy Russian businessmen, the oligarchs, in 1996 reelection of President Boris Yeltsin. This research was qualitative and descriptive. The goal was to collect the information from various sources and summarize it, demonstrating how the interference of the oligarchs reflected on the process of the election, as well as on the careers of their own.The research concluded that the oligarchs' role was, first of all, in the organization and financing a highly effective election campaign team; consolidating the business elite and big capital around Yeltsin, using the media that they controlled as a tool of pro-Yeltsin propaganda; and influencing some key decision taken by Yeltsin. The result was Yeltsin's victory, and the increase of the oligarchs' wealth and political power.This ability of the oligarchs to manipulate politics completely cemented the interrelation between business and politics in Russia, which contributed to Russia's reputation as a country of corruption and lawlessness.<br>Department of Political Science

Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-10T17:55:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Carlos Alberto Seibert.pdf: 2629874 bytes, checksum: 20dce4437b00c0c416a7cf1b7fd6084f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-08-22<br>Esta disertación trata de la participación de los Moradores del Loteamiento Ceval en la historia de Marechal Cândido Rondon (1991 2007), se propone a hacer un estudio de caso sobre la formación del sector urbano-industrial frigorífico y la lucha por morada. Este proceso tuvo inicio en 1963 y continúa hasta el momento. La problematización enfoca las relaciones entre los múltiples sujetos sociales implicados: trabajadores, em-presarios y empresas, del frigorífico, moradores del Loteamiento Ceval, gobierno muni-cipal, estadual y federal, prensa y Ministerio Público. En el primer momento el análisis está direccionado para la formación del espacio urbano-industrial de la ciudad que ocu-rrió simultáneamente con la formación del frigorífico de carne porcina de Marechal Cândido Rondon en el período de 1963-1996. Juntamente con ese proceso se formó la Villa Obrera en el frigorífico de Marechal Cândido Rondon que, en 1991, hizo parte de una negociación envolviendo Gobierno Municipal y la empresa Ceval Alimentos. Desde esa negociación las casas, de la entonces Villa Obrera, fueron transferidas para el actual Loteamiento Ceval. En el Loteamiento Ceval, además de la ilegalidad, los moradores están sometidos a los efectos de la polución, a los riesgos a la integridad física, moral y salud, a la degradación ambiental, a la baja calidad de vida, y el desempleo, a la margi-nación, al descaso del poder público y, principalmente, la discriminación y a la segrega-ción social. Desde 2004 como investigación y extensión, la actuación de la Universidad contribuyó decisivamente para la organización del acervo documental que resultó en el Procedimiento Administrativo Ministerial nº 01/2003, en el cual peritos del Centro de Apoyo Operacional a las Promotorías de Protección al Medio Ambiente, de Curitiba, subvencionaron a 2ª Promotoría de Justicia de la Comarca de Marechal Cândido Ron-don en la confección de la Acción Civil Pública Ambiental, Autos 225/2005. De esta forma, en cuanto órgano de la Justicia, esta Promotoría actuó visando la defensa de los derechos difusos, especialmente, en este caso, en defensa del medio ambiente y de la integridad física y moral de los moradores.<br>Esta dissertação trata da participação dos Moradores do Loteamento Ceval na história de Marechal Cândido Rondon (1991 2007), se propõe a fazer um estudo de caso sobre a formação do setor urbano-industrial frigorífico e a luta por moradia. Este processo teve início em 1963 e continua até o momento. A problematização enfoca as relações entre os múltiplos sujeitos sociais envolvidos: trabalhadores, empresários e empresas, do frigorífico, moradores do Loteamento Ceval, governo municipal, estadual e federal, imprensa e Ministério Público. No primeiro momento a análise está voltada para a for-mação do espaço urbano-industrial da cidade que ocorreu concomitantemente com a formação do frigorífico de carne suína de Marechal Cândido Rondon no período de 1963-1996. Juntamente com esse processo formou-se a Vila Operária no frigorífico de Marechal Cândido Rondon que, em 1991, fez parte de uma negociação envolvendo Go-verno Municipal e a empresa Ceval Alimentos. A partir dessa negociação as casas, da então Vila Operária, foram transferidas para o atual Loteamento Ceval. No Loteamento Ceval, além da ilegalidade, os moradores estão submetidos aos efeitos da poluição, aos riscos à integridade física, moral e saúde, à degradação ambiental, à baixa qualidade de vida, e o desemprego, à marginalização, ao descaso do poder público e, principalmente, a discriminação e à segregação social. A partir de 2004 enquanto pesquisa e extensão, a atuação da Universidade contribuiu decisivamente para a organização do acervo docu-mental que resultou no Procedimento Administrativo Ministerial nº 01/2003, no qual peritos do Centro de Apoio Operacional às Promotorias de Proteção ao Meio Ambiente, de Curitiba, subsidiaram a 2ª Promotoria de Justiça da Comarca de Marechal Cândido Rondon na confecção da Ação Civil Pública Ambiental, Autos 225/2005. Desta forma, enquanto órgão da Justiça, esta Promotoria atuou visando a defesa dos direitos difusos, especialmente, neste caso, em defesa do meio ambiente e da integridade física e moral dos moradores.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.<br>ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study concerned the piratical attacks occurring along the East and West coasts of Africa. Although maritime piracy along the coasts of Africa is not a new phenomenon, recent upsurges in piratical attacks have attracted a great deal of attention. Despite Nigeria being long considered as the hotspot for piratical activity in Africa, the greatest upsurge of piratical activity has been seen in the areas surrounding Somalia, including the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. The primary objective of this study is to identify the main causes of maritime piracy in Somalia and Nigeria. Also the correlation between state capacity (failed or weak) and the motivations for piracy (greed or grievance) is investigated. The secondary objectives of this study are to investigate the direct manifestations of piracy, as well as the current counter piracy initiatives. This is done in order to evaluate the successes and failures of current counter-piracy approaches in order to create more viable and successful counter measures. It is found that historical factors, as well as political, economic, social and environmental factors contribute greatly to the rise of maritime piracy in both Somalia and Nigeria. Furthermore, it has been found that there are numerous direct causes of piracy in these two countries. These differences and similarities have been investigated using a comparative analysis framework.<br>AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie het betrekking tot die seerowery wat langs die Oos-en Weskus van Afrika plaasvind. Alhoewel seerowery langs die kus van Afrika nie 'n nuwe verskynsel is nie, het die onlangse oplewing van seerower-aanvalle baie aandag geniet in verskeie oorde. Ten spyte daarvan dat Nigerië lank beskou was as die probleem-area vir seerower aktiwiteit in Afrika, word die grootste toename van seerowery in die gebiede rondom Somalië, insluitend die Golf van Aden en die Indiese Oseaan ervaar. Die primêre doel van hierdie studie is om die oorsake van seerowery in Somalië en Nigerië te identifiseer. Die verband tussen staat-kapasiteit (mislukte of swak) en die motiverings vir seerowery (gierigheid of griewe) word ondersoek. Die sekondêre doelwitte van hierdie studie is om die direkte manifestasies van seerowery te ondersoek, sowel as die huidige teen-seerower inisiatiewe. Dit word gedoen om die suksesse en mislukkings van die huidige teen-seerower benaderings te evalueer ten einde meer lewensvatbare en suksesvolle teenmaatreels te skep. Dit is gevind dat historiese faktore, sowel as die politieke-, ekonomiese-, sosiale- en omgewings- faktore baie bydra tot die ontstaan en opbloei van seerowery in Somalië en Nigerië. Dit is gevind dat daar talle direkte oorsake van seerowery in hierdie twee lande is. Hierdie verskille en ooreenkomste is ondersoek met behulp van vergelykende analises.

Les sciences sociales qui traitent du Maghreb se sont constituées dans un contexte particulier, celui de la colonisation. Ce travail propose une description sémantique de leur phase récente à travers un corpus de quatre textes, écrits par des auteurs importants dans leurs disciplines respectives : Charles-André Julien, Mostéfa Lacheraf, Pierre Bourdieu et Germaine Tillion. Tous les quatre ont vécu le passage de la période coloniale à la période postcoloniale. Une analyse critique de leurs textes montre, en traçant des parcours interprétatifs à l’échelle globale, la continuité de certains cadres doxiques hérités des savoirs antérieurs. Elle distingue cinq types de réécriture, parfois très innovants : géographique, écologique, nationaliste, méditerranéiste et mythologique<br>The social sciences which deal with the Maghreb were chiefly established in the context of colonisation. The present work proposes a semantic description of a recent phase of these sciences. Through a corpus based on four texts, the following prominent authors were selected: Charles-André Julien, Mostéfa Lacheraf, Pierre Bourdieu and Germaine Tillion. All of them experienced the transition from the colonial to the post colonial period. After a critical analysis of their texts, grounded on constructed interpretative trajectories, the dissertation establishes the continuity of some "doxical configurations" inherited from past forms of knowledge. Five types of rewriting processes are distinguished: geographic, ecological, nationalist, mediterraneanist and mythological ones

Ce mémoire porte sur l’élargissement de l’OTAN, à partir de l’étude du cas de la candidature de la Croatie. L’auteure y analyse comment l’élargissement de l’OTAN à la Croatie est représentatif de la transformation politico-idéologique de l’organisation et du nouveau rôle qu’elle s’attribue aujourd’hui au sein du système international post-Yalta. En centrant son étude sur un cas concret, l’auteure examine l’adéquation entre les grands principes de l’élargissement et leur application historique réelle, ce qui la porte à considérer la signification des conditionnalités politiques et militaires imposées à la Croatie pour son adhésion. En fin de compte, l’auteure évalue la candidature croate et démontre comment la perspective d’élargissement fait partie intégrante d’une stratégie de l’OTAN à l’égard des Balkans. Cette étude s’inscrit dans le domaine de l’histoire des relations internationales. L’approche développée et les choix méthodologiques adoptés sont inspirés des tenants de l’histoire immédiate et de la microhistoire.<br>This master’s thesis focuses on NATO enlargement by a case study of Croatia candidature. The author examines how NATO’s enlargement to Croatia is representative of the organization transformation and of the new role taken currently in the post-Yalta system. Starting from this initial questioning, the author analyzes the historical meaning of this politico-ideological transformation of North Atlantic Alliance and by centering this study on a concrete case, she examines the adequacy between the great principles of enlargement and their real historical application. The author analyzes finally the significance of the political and military conditionalities imposed on Croatia for its adhesion. Ultimately, she evaluates its candidature and shows how this prospect for enlargement is an integral part of a NATO strategy for the Balkans. This research falls within the field of History of International Relations. Micro-History and Immediate History have inspired the methodological choices and historical approach developed here.

Exploring elections features from a geographical perspective is the focus of this study. Its primary objective is to develop a scientific approach based on geoinformation technology (GIT) that promotes deeper understanding how geographical settings affect the spatial and temporal variations of voting behaviour and election outcomes. For this purpose, the five parliamentary elections (1991-2005) following the political turnaround in 1990 in the South East European reform country Albania have been selected as a case study. Elections, like other social phenomena that do not develop uniformly over a territory, inherit a spatial dimension. Despite of fact that elections have been researched by various scientific disciplines ranging from political science to geography, studies that incorporate their spatial dimension are still limited in number and approaches. Consequently, the methodologies needed to generate an integrated knowledge on many facets that constitute election features are lacking. This study addresses characteristics and interactions of the essential elements involved in an election process. Thus, the baseline of the approach presented here is the exploration of relations between three entities: electorate (political and sociodemographic features), election process (electoral system and code) and place (environment where voters reside). To express this interaction the concept of electoral pattern is introduced. Electoral patterns are defined by the study as the final view of election results, chiefly in tabular and/or map form, generated by the complex interaction of social, economic, juridical, and spatial features of the electorate, which has occurred at a specific time and in a particular geographical location. GIT methods of geoanalysis and geovisualization are used to investigate the characteristics of electoral patterns in their spatial and temporal distribution. Aggregate-level data modelled in map form were used to analyse and visualize the spatial distribution of election patterns components and relations. The spatial dimension of the study is addressed in the following three main relations: One, the relation between place and electorate and its expression through the social, demographic and economic features of the electorate resulting in the profile of the electorate’s context; second, the electorate-election interaction which forms the baseline to explore the perspective of local contextual effects in voting behaviour and election results; third, the relation between geographical location and election outcomes reflecting the implication of determining constituency boundaries on election results. To address the above relations, three types of variables: geo, independent and dependent, have been elaborated and two models have been created. The Data Model, developed in a GIS environment, facilitates structuring of election data in order to perform spatial analysis. The peculiarity of electoral patterns – a multidimensional array that contains information on three variables, stored in data layers of dissimilar spatial units of reference and scales of value measurement – prohibit spatial analysis based on the original source data. To perform a joint spatial analysis it is therefore mandatory to restructure the spatial units of reference while preserving their semantic content. In this operation, all relevant electoral as well as socio-demographic data referenced to different administrative spatial entities are re-referenced to uniform grid cells as virtual spatial units of reference. Depending on the scale of data acquisition and map presentation, a cell width of 0.5 km has been determined. The resulting fine grid forms the basis of subsequent data analyses and correlations. Conversion of the original vector data layers into target raster layers allows for unification of spatial units, at the same time retaining the existing level of detail of the data (variables, uniform distribution over space). This in turn facilitates the integration of the variables studied and the performance of GIS-based spatial analysis. In addition, conversion to raster format makes it possible to assign new values to the original data, which are based on a common scale eliminating existing differences in scale of measurement. Raster format operations of the type described are well-established data analysis techniques in GIT, yet they have rarely been employed to process and analyse electoral data. The Geovisualization Model, developed in a cartographic environment, complements the Data Model. As an analog graphic model it facilitates efficient communication and exploration of geographical information through cartographic visualization. Based on this model, 52 choropleth maps have been generated. They represent the outcome of the GIS-based electoral data analysis. The analog map form allows for in-depth visual analysis and interpretation of the distribution and correlation of the electoral data studied. For researchers, decision makers and a wider public the maps provide easy-to-access information on and promote easy-to-understand insight into the spatial dimension, regional variation and resulting structures of the electoral patterns defined.<br>Gegenstand der vorliegenden Studie ist die Erforschung der aus politischen Wahlen resultierenden Raumstrukturen mit Methoden und Techniken der Geoinformationsverarbeitung. Auf der Basis eines gemeinsamen räumlichen Bezuges wird es durch die Verknüpfung der Wahlergebnisse mit ausgewählten wirtschaftlichen, demographischen und sozialen Parametern möglich, die räumliche Verteilung, Kernräume (Hochburgen) und räumlich-strukturelle Verknüpfungen der Wahlergebnisse politischer Parteien zu untersuchen. Die Resultate tragen zu einem besseren Verständnis der Ergebnisse politischer Wahlen und deren räumliche Dimensionen auf nationaler bis lokaler Ebene bei. Die Studie wird am Beispiel der fünf Parlamentswahlen (1991-2005) des südosteuropäischen Reformstaates Albanien durchgeführt, die seit der politischen Wende 1990 stattgefunden haben. Ausgangspunkt der Untersuchung ist die Tatsache, dass Wahlen, wie zahllose andere gesellschaftliche Phänomene auch, eine räumliche Dimension besitzen. Diese kommt in der territorialen Organisation politischer Wahlen in Wahlkreisen explizit zum Ausdruck. In der parlamentarischen Vertretung der politischen Parteien spiegelt sich dies allerdings nur indirekt wider. Zwar waren die parteipolitischen Aspekte politischer Wahlen als auch die parlamentarische Repräsentation sowie die soziodemographischen Strukturen der Wahlbevölkerung Gegenstand einer Vielzahl von Studien aus Politik- und Sozialwissenschaften. Dies auch gilt für die Geographie. Die erwähnte räumliche Dimension politischer Wahlen wurde bislang aber seltener in das Zentrum von Untersuchungen gestellt. Es mangelt insofern auch an spezifischen Methodologien, die eine integrierte Untersuchung aller relevanten Wahlparameter ermöglichen und eine umfassende Bewertung alle Aspekte des Wahlwahlverhaltens einer Wahlbevölkerung bei politischen Wahlen unterstützen. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht strukturelle wie räumliche Merkmale und Zusammenhänge der wesentlichen Faktoren, die bei politischen Wahlen relevant sind. Ausgangspunkt ist die Untersuchung so genannter Wahlmuster, die durch das Zusammenwirken folgender Faktoren entstehen: Wahlprozess (Wahlsystem, Wahlcode), politische und soziodemographische Kenndaten der Wahlbevölkerung, räumliche Ausbreitung und regionale Struktur der Wahlbezirke sowie die räumliche Verteilung und Strukturierung der Wahlbevölkerung. Als Wahlmuster wird die endgültige Repräsentation von Wahlergebnissen, i.d.R. in Tabellen- und Kartenform, betrachtet. Wahlmuster entstehen durch komplexe Interaktion der sozialen, wirtschaftlichen, juristischen und räumlichen Merkmale der Wahlbevölkerung zu einer bestimmten Zeit (Wahltag) in einem bestimmten Raum (Wahlgebiet). Für die Untersuchung der räumlichen und zeitlichen Dimension der Wahlmuster werden Methoden und Techniken der Geoinformationsverarbeitung eingesetzt. Die räumliche Dimension wird dabei in drei Merkmalsgruppen untersucht: Erstens, die Beziehungen zwischen Raum (Standort) und Wahlbevölkerung, wie sie sich in den demographischen, wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Kennwerten der Wahlbevölkerung manifestieren. Zweitens, die Interaktion zwischen Walbevölkerung und Wahl, die die Grundlage bildet, um regionale Kontexteffekte bei Wahlverhalten und Wahlergebnissen zu untersuchen. Drittens, die Verknüpfung von Wahlergebnissen und deren räumlichen Bezügen, wie sie sich in der stetigen Veränderung der Wahlkreisgrenzen niederschlägt. Um die genannten Merkmalsgruppen zu untersuchen, werden drei Variablengruppen gebildet: räumliche, unabhängige, abhängige Variablen. Ihre raumzeitlichen Interaktionen werden mittels zweier raumbezogener Modelle untersucht. Das graphikfreie Datenmodell wird in einem Geoinformationssystem erstellt und erlaubt die Strukturierung der Wahldaten. Dies bildet eine Voraussetzung für die nachfolgende räumliche Analyse. Das besondere Kennzeichen der Wahlmuster – eine mehrdimensionale Matrix der Variableninformation, die in unterschiedlichen, nicht aggregierbaren administrativen Raumbezugseinheiten vorliegt – behindert die räumliche Analyse der Originaldaten. Um dennoch räumliche Analysen durchzuführen, ist es erforderlich, den Raumbezug zu verändern bei gleichzeitiger Beibehaltung der thematischen Merkmale. Hierbei werden alle Wahldaten sowie die relevanten soziodemographischen Daten auf eine gemeinsame Raumbezugseinheit bezogen. Statt unterschiedlich administrativ abgegrenzter Raumeinheiten werden regelmäßige Rasterzellen gleicher Maschenweite als Raumbezugseinheiten definiert und den bisherigen, separaten Raummustern der Variablen überlagert. Auf diese Weise wird die räumliche Gleichverteilung aller Variablen in eine gemeinsame räumliche Bezugsbasis überführt, ohne dass die semantischen Merkmale verändert werden. Entsprechend dem Erfassungs- und Präsentationsmaßstab wurde eine Maschenweite von 0,5 km gewählt. Der hieraus resultierende feingranulare Raumgitter bildet die gemeinsame Basis für die nunmehr möglich integrierte räumliche Analyse aller Merkmalsgruppen. Die hier beschriebene rasterbasierte Raumanalyse stellt eine eingeführte Methode der GIS-basierten Geoinformationsverarbeitung dar. Sie wurde bislang jedoch selten zur Verarbeitung und Analyse von Wahldaten eingesetzt. Das mit dem Datenmodell korrespondierende graphikbezogene Visualisierungsmodell wird in einer Kartenkonstruktionsumgebung erstellt und erlaubt die fachgerechte kartographische Veranschaulichung ausgewählter Analyseergebnisse des Datenmodells. Daten- und Kartenmodell sind durch einen Datenfilter verknüpft, der die erforderliche Datenkonversion ermöglicht. Auf Basis des Visualisierungsmodells wurden zweiundfünfzig Kartenmodelle des Kartogramm- bzw. Kartodiagrammtyps erzeugt. Sie ermöglichen die vertiefte visuelle Exploration, Analyse und Interpretation der räumlichen Verteilung und Korrelation der untersuchten Wahldaten. Komplementär zum graphikfreien Datenmodell eröffnet das Visualisierungsmodell Fachwissenschaftlern, politischen Entscheidungsträgern und - in begrenztem Umfang – einer interessierten Öffentlichkeit einen intuitiven Erkenntniszugang zur den räumlichen Dimensionen, der regionalen Variation der Wahlergebnisse und den resultierenden raumgebundenen Wahlmustern.

Kiekviena politinės lyderystės apraiška 1990 – 1991 metais vykusio Irako – Kuveito konflikto kontekste buvo skirtinga priklausomai nuo JAV, Didžiosios Britanijos, Prancūzijos ir Irako politinių lyderių asmeninių savybių, lyderiavimo motyvų, nuo skirtingai suvokiamų atskiros visuomenės tikslų įgyvendinimo specifikos, nuo tarptautinės grupės ypatybių ir kitų socialinių, politinių, ekonominių bei kultūrinių sąlygų. Vieni politiniais lyderiais tapo dėl asmeninio patrauklumo, charizmos, kiti atsidūrė tam tikru momentu tam tikroje situacijoje, treti veikė vedini savo asmeninių ambicijų. Kaip tik todėl magistro darbo objektas yra politinių lyderių vaidmuo Irako – Kuveito konflikte. Darbo aktualumas. 1990 – 1991 metais Persijos įlankoje netrūko radikalių permainų: pagrindiniu tikslu buvo laikomas Irako prezidento Sadamo Huseino nuvertimas, o tai reiškė, jog sąjungininkai privalėjo užimti Irako sostinę Bagdadą ir kontroliuoti visus strateginius jame esančius objektus. Būtent šioje situacijoje politiniams lyderiams atsirado puiki terpė pasireikšti. Magistro darbe aiškinamasi apie galingiausių to meto valstybių verbalinį ir fizinį ryšį, jų vykdomus ar ketinamus vykdyti veiksmus. Kadangi nebuvo ir vis dar nėra jokios paprastos lyderystės formulės ar griežtos mokslinės disciplinos, kuria būtų galėję vadovautis nagrinėjami politiniai lyderiai, tai tapo akstinu pažvelgti į šią problemą iš naujo. Darbo chronologinės ribos. Pavadinime įvardintas 1990 – 1991 metų laikotarpis. Konfliktas... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]<br>Every political clash leaves a trace in World history. The conflict between Iraq and Kuwait in the end of XX century is not the exception. Amid growing tension between the two Persian Gulf neighbors, Saddam Hussein concluded that the United States and the rest of the outside world would not interfere to defend Kuwait. On August 2, 1990, Iraqi forces invaded Kuwait and quickly seized control of the small nation. Within days, the United States, along with the United Nations, demanded Iraq’s immediate withdrawal. U.S. and other UN member nations began deploying troops in Saudi Arabia within the week, and the worldwide coalition began to form under UN authority. On January 16, 1991, Allied forces began devastating bombing of Iraq and its forces in Kuwait. The Allied bombing sought to damage Iraq’s infrastructure so as to hinder its ability to make war while also hurting both civilian and military morale. Unfortunately, Allied air strikes and cruise missile attacks against Iraq proved more devastating than expected. When the Allied armies launched the ground war on February 23, the Iraqi occupation forces in Kuwait were already beaten. On March 3, 1991, Iraq accepted the terms of the cease-fire and the fighting ended. So the object of master‘s work has been the evaluation of the role, substantiality and particularity of political leaders during the conflict between Iraq and Kuwait in 1990 – 1991. The goal has been to point out the connection between the expression of political... [to full text]

碩士<br>淡江大學<br>國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班<br>97<br>Military diplomacy is important element in a nation’s foreign relations. This thesis discusses military diplomacy of the People’s Republic of China under the leadership of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. Issues examined in the thesis include: the essence, principle, and basic forms of its military diplomacy; exchanges of military officers with foreign militaries in observation of military exercises inside China and overseas; conducting joint search and rescue exercises with neighboring states; participation of bilateral and multilateral efforts in search of new ways to tackle challenges of the diverse environment and to ensure security in international community. Chinese military has actively participated in humanitarian support and disaster relief efforts, as those missions have become emerging roles and duties of armed forces of all nations. Chinese military also actively takes part in the United Nations peacekeeping operations, showing strong intentions in the improvement and development of military relations with the developed countries. As a part of overall diplomacy on strengthening its friendly ties with neighbors, the Chinese military has also made efforts to improve ties with militaries of neighboring states. At the same time, China has stressed the importance of participating in multilateral security dialogue and cooperation, arms control and disarmament. The author intends to draw a clearer picture of Chinese military diplomacy, its current state, and future developments. Consequently, the impact of Chinese military diplomacy upon regional security and the future of Taiwan were analyzed.

Defence date: 14 December 2010<br>Examining Board: László Bruszt (EUI) (Supervisor); Sven Steinmo (EUI); Terry Lynn Karl (Stanford University); Béla Greskovits (Central European University)<br>PDF of thesis uploaded from the Library digital archive of EUI PhD theses<br>This thesis explains the divergent outcomes in the evolution of political and economic institutions in two neighboring countries : Belarus and Ukraine between 1991 and 2007. Beyond the principal focus on these two pathways, the thesis also incorporates the examination of a third one, that of Russia, for various empirical, theoretical and methodological reasons. It explores in detail how the disparity in a quality of domestic political competition (largely determined by the strength of nationalist movements, the constellation of elites, and the European leverage and linkage) together with the variables of the external rent flows (timing of the external rent-expansion, costs, ownership and the perceived stability of rents) set the two countries on divergent paths. Going deeper, it analyses the logic behind both reproduction and change of political and economic institutions in Belarus and Ukraine. The focus on the dimension of external rents is the main added value and that what contributes to the uniqueness of this project, for it explains - why, when, how and in conjunction with what other factors, external economic rents steered the pathways away from autocratic socialism.

碩士<br>國立暨南國際大學<br>經濟學系<br>99<br>The data used in this research was Manpower Utilization Survey in 1991, 1999 and 2007, from Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistic, Executive Yuan. The methodology of quantile regression was used to estimate the wage rate fuction by selecting bootstrapping samples. Furthermore, Machado and Mata (2005) counterfactual decomposition was used to analyze covariates and coefficients for affecting wage rate. The findings of this research were that the wage rate distribution affecting by covariates and coefficients moved rightward during 16 years. In the counterfactual analysis for men, the rate of wage differentials attributed to the coefficients was large. However, for women, the wage rate distribution affected by covariates was more than men. Especially the counterfactual analysis of 1991~2007, the rate of wage differentials affected by the covariates and coefficients was near. The changes of the covariates were more in the longtime so the wage gap attributed to the covariates was much. Moreover, regardless of any year in the counterfactual analysis, the wage differentials attributed to differences of coefficients were more than differences of covariates.

碩士<br>淡江大學<br>東南亞研究所碩士班<br>96<br>In cold war period, Southeast Asia under the international situation which U.S. and Soviet Union mutually strives for hegemony, and Southeast Asia countries must observe the might country''s in many regional purposes opinion, and the degree which taked was not been high. Simultaneously, the Southeast Asia countries in order to avoid into the hegemony country’s fall guy, they started mutually to draw up outside the regional security business and strengthen the cooperation like politics, the economy, the culture... and so on. And they attempt in the two-pole system to find Southeast Asia’s development direction. After the Vietnam war (1961-1975), besides the U.S. and China normalization of relation, they associate with Southeast Asia closely, gradually opens the turning point which U.S., China and Southeast Asia cooperate in the future. After cold war, U.S. and China gradually appear competition in Southeast Asia. On the one hand, U.S. and Southeast Asia countries maintenance military or economic cooperation. On the other hand, China was positive and the Southeast Asia countries contact in 1990 ages, as well as chinese friendly action when 1997-1998 regional finance storm occurs, changed the Southeast Asia countries to China''s view. After 911 event, the regional situation has the momentous change once more, U.S. opened the counter- terrorism war in Southeast Asia, and increases opportunities which the U.S.、China and Southeast Asia cooperates. In opposition terrorism premise, U.S. stably in Southeast Asia''s hegemony status, China increases in Southeast Asia''s influence, Southeast Asia obtains opportunities of leading the regional business between U.S. and China. This thesis mainly divides into three periods. First period from 1991 to Southeast Asia finance storm. Mainly discusses U.S. and China in Southeast Asia''s power relations. The second period from the Southeast Asia finance storm to 911 event and mainly discusses which the period of Southeast Asia’s region change. The third period discusses U.S., China, ASEAN tripartite in Southeast Asia''s interaction and to forecast the development of the region.

Cette thèse porte sur la construction, la pratique et les usages de la Politique Européenne de Sécurité et de Défense depuis les années 1990. Elle étudie en premier lieu la genèse de la politique européenne de défense en prenant en compte tant les facteurs conjoncturels comme fenêtre d'opportunité politique (la fin de la guerre froide, conflits balkaniques, réforme de l'OTAN) que structurels, en l'occurrence le cadre de socialisation de la coopération militaire franco-allemande. La thèse démontre le rôle d'entrepreneurs politiques joués par Mitterrand et Kohl, relayés ensuite par les services diplomatiques européens. Dans un second temps, la thèse analyse la construction de la politique européenne de défense comme une configuration sociale spécifique au sein de la construction européenne. Cette configuration nouvelle, dotée d'organes propres et régie par l'intergouvernementalisme, interfère avec les configurations nationales de politique étrangère et de défense structurées sur le temps long, en modifiant les jeux d'interdépendance entre les capitales et Bruxelles, et entre les différents groupes d'acteurs concernés (en l'occurrence avant tout les militaires, et les diplomates et acteurs civils de la Défense). De plus, la configuration PESD est largement affectée par le poids de la socialisation tant nationale que professionnelle et organisationnelle des acteurs, qui influence leurs pratiques et leurs représentations de cette politique. Ce nouvel espace social fait l'objet d'un investissement différencié par les principaux acteurs qui la font fonctionner. Enfin, le poids des représentations nationales de sécurité joue à un niveau macro comme un obstacle pour la PESD, ce qui soulève dès lors des enjeux de légitimation pour elle. Finalement, la PESD ne vise pas à construire une armée européenne, mais remplit des fonctions latentes de substitut politique et symbolique au moins aussi importantes, si ce n'est plus, que ses fonctions manifestes de réactivité aux crises. La PESD contribue ainsi à construire politiquement le rôle d'acteur international de l'UE en matière de sécurité.

no<br>I have been eagerly awaiting the publication of this book since 2000, when, as a PhD student, I was lucky enough to be able to visit the St Mary Spital excavations where I knew quite a few of the excavators and osteologists. It was apparent at that early stage in the research of St Mary Spital that this was a very exciting and important excavation and skeletal assemblage. This book does not disappoint.

Problématique : La morbidité et la mortalité pédiatriques, ainsi que les caractéristiques épidémiologiques de l'enfant hospitalisé ont connu de nettes modifications durant la dernière décennie. But du travail : Est d'analyser les causes de morbidité et de mortalité pédiatriques hospitalières dans le service de Médecine Infantile « C » de l'hôpital d'enfants de Tunis durant l'année 1991 et l'année 2007, de déterminer l'évolution du profil épidémiologique de la morbidité et de la mortalité et de discuter l'impact de cette évolution sur l'activité médicale, paramédicale et les besoins en matériel de santé. Méthodes : Il s'agit d'une étude descriptive, rétrospective incluant tous les enfants hospitalisés pour la première fois durant l'année 2007 en comparant les résultats avec ceux d'une étude analogue réalisée dans le même service en 1991. Résultats : Le nombre des hospitalisations a augmenté de 27,68% passant de 1727 en 1991 à 2205 en 2007. Les admissions des nouveau-nés se sont accrues passant de 9,32% à 21,41% entre les deux années. La durée moyenne de séjour est passée de dix à cinq jours. Les admissions pour affections périnatales (13,87%) et affections respiratoires (23,87%) ont doublé. Les maladies infectieuses demeurent une cause fréquente d'hospitalisation (19%). Le taux de mortalité globale est passé de 8,63% à 2,4%. Il a baissé chez les deux sexes et pour toutes les tranches d'âge. Une augmentation de la proportion des nouveau-nés parmi les décès passant de 31,54% en 1991 à 58,49% en 2007 a été constatée. Les affections respiratoires péri et néonatales ont constitué la première cause de décès (49,06%) en 2007 remplaçant les maladies infectieuses. Le taux de létalité a baissé pour toutes les pathologies à l'exception des maladies du système nerveux et des anomalies congénitales. Conclusion : La Tunisie est en phase intermédiaire entre les pays en développement et les pays développés. Les efforts doivent se concentrer sur la pathologie périnatale, la réanimation des nouveaunés, et particulièrement les prématurés, et la pathologie respiratoire.

Tese de mestrado integrado, Engenharia da Energia e do Ambiente, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2017<br>A presente dissertação tem como principal objetivo o estudo da ação do vento nos desfiladeiros urbanos, especialmente com vista à ventilação natural. Desta forma criou-se um modelo, de forma a simular em túnel de vento várias configurações de desfiladeiros urbanos, capaz de criar uma base de dados robusta de coeficientes de pressão para uma zona edificada. Utilizaram-se parâmetros adimensionais que relacionam a altura, comprimento e largura do edifício, bem como o espaçamento existente entre edifícios, para caracterizar os desfiladeiros urbanos. Após o tratamento e análise dos resultados obtidos pretende-se criar uma base de dados capaz de ser utilizada por qualquer utilizador e seguir a metodologia da norma portuguesa NP EN 1991-1-4/2007 - Ações em estruturas, que presentemente apenas inclui resultados para um edifício isolado e com uma incidência de vento de 0º. A nova base de dados permitirá a leitura dos coeficientes de pressão, bem como conseguir compará-los entre desfiladeiros urbanos. Verificou-se ao longo dos ensaios que com o aumento do espaçamento entre edifícios, as distribuições de pressão se aproximam cada vez mais de edifício isolado, principalmente quando a área da superfície exposta ao vento é menor. Por outro lado, dando foco ao parâmetro adimensional que relaciona o comprimento e a altura, foi possível observar que para desfiladeiros com edifícios de menor comprimento a distribuição de coeficientes de pressão apresenta uma maior gama de valores, em módulo, tanto para a fachada a barlavento (mais positivos), como para a cobertura e laterais (mais negativos). À medida que esta relação aumenta, e o comprimento aumenta em relação à altura, observa-se uma maior estabilidade nos resultados obtidos, sendo possível ver uma tendência para um determinado valor para quase todas as evoluções obtidas. A utilização da metodologia de divisão de fachadas existente na norma, complementada com a criação de mais detalhe na fachada a barlavento, revelou-se ser correta dando total conhecimento sobre os coeficientes de pressão para as fachadas em análise e permitindo a comparação entre ensaios.<br>The present dissertation has as its main goal the study of wind’s action in street canyons, especially concerning natural ventilation. Therefore, a model was created in order to simulate in a wind tunnel various street canyon configurations that are able to create a robust database with pressure coefficients in a built area. Adimensional parameters that relate dimensions such as height, length and width of a building were used as well as spacing between buildings to characterize the street canyons. After the results treatment and analysis it’s intended to create a database capable of being utilized by any user following the NP EN 1991-1-4/2007 – Actions in structures standard methodology, that presently just includes results for an isolated building under a wind incidence of 0º. The new database will allow the reading of pressure coefficients, as well as the ability to compare them between different street canyons. It comes out that with larger spacing between buildings pressure distributions goes toward the ones in isolated buildings, mainly when the windward surface’s area is smaller. On the other hand, focusing on the adimensional parameter that relates length and height it was possible to observe that for small canyons the distribution of pressure coefficients presents a broader scale range, in module, both for the windward façade (more positive) and for the cover and sides (more negative). As this relation grows and the length rises in relation to height results show more stable values and a tendency to a certain value for almost every evolution obtained can be observed. The use of façade splitting methodology present in the standard complemented with a more detailed division of the windward façade revealed to be correct giving total knowledge about the pressure coefficient for the analysed façades allowing a comparison between the different experiments made.