Dissertations / Theses on the topic '190301 Climate change mitigation strategies'

Scientists started to study the relationship between changing weather patterns and the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other harmful gasses. They soon discovered compelling evidence that CO2 concentration and other gases have been increasing and it was causing temperatures to increase in certain areas on the earth, which disturb historic weather patterns. Climate change has become a very popular field of study in the modern science. Europe first introduced measures to reduce carbon emissions but it was the Kyoto in 1997 where global leaders were asked to participate in a joint protocol to reduce greenhouse gases. South Africa responded to climate change challenges in 2008 with the Long term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS). The Integrated Resource Plan for electricity to 2030 was developed from the LTMS scenarios and after some major amendments it was accepted and promulgated by Government and has recently been included in the National Development Plan to 2030 (NDP). There are concerns about the achievability of some of the objectives listed in the NDP and this study explored the IRP2010 as the proposed strategy to meet energy demand and reduce emissions. The purpose for this study was to answer this question: Is there an optimum climate change mitigation strategy for South Africa and how can the effect thereof be simulated on economic growth? Through primary and secondary research during the study it was possible to define some 32 categories of energy producing assets that are commercially active or nearly market-ready. The characteristics of the various assets and the relevant fuel are defined in mathematical equations. It was found that the three portfolios that matched the 450TWh electricity requirement would perform substantially better than the NDP portfolio in terms of cost and similar on emissions with marginally fewer employment opportunities created. The proposed electricity strategy in this study was 390TWh and 33.5 Million tonnes of oil consumption by 2030. This strategy was substantially more affordable than the 450TWh strategy. Trends in the Supply and Use tables since 1993 were studied and then forecasted to 2030 to determine consumption levels on electricity and liquid fuel into the future. It was found that electricity demand is seriously overestimated and South Africa would end up with large excess capacity in electricity infrastructures if the NDP energy strategy (IRP2010) is implemented. It is concluded that the NDP energy strategy to 2030 is based on an incorrect electricity demand forecast. It would lead to excessive investment in an electricity infrastructure. Government has confirmed that part of the new infrastructure would be nuclear. It is also found that NDP has not clearly supported nuclear as part of the strategy. Nuclear is partly the reason why the capital requirement of the NDP portfolio is so much higher than the other portfolios. It is the conclusion of this study that South Africa do not need to invest in a nuclear build programme as the electricity demand would be adequately covered by adding the new Medupi and Kusile power stations, Ingula pump storage scheme, some wind and solar renewables, electricity from cogeneration, biogas, biomass, small hydro and imported hydro from neighbour countries. To invest in electricity capacity to generate 450TWh annually by 2030 would result in excessive energy cost, GDP growth could be up to 1% lower due to underperforming capital investments in the electricity infrastructure and higher energy cost would lead to a decline in global competitiveness.

Fulfilling climate targets requires ambitious changes. The building sector is a large contributor to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), but also offers opportunities for climate change impact reductions. This thesis aims at supporting strategic decisions to reach climate change mitigation targets in the building sector, based on knowledge about what factors contribute significantly to climate impact from buildings in a life cycle perspective and how practitioners can influence these factors. More specifically, a first point of investigation concerns what aspects play a key importance in buildings’ climate impact, and what climate change mitigation strategies for the building sector should focus on. A quantitative analysis of backcasting scenarios for 2050 was performed using a spreadsheet model to estimate GHG emissions for the building sector. The parameters were adjusted to ensure that a GHG emission quota was reached in every scenario. This provided an illustration of four very different ways the building sector could contribute to the fulfillment of a global climate change mitigation target. The results were used to discuss what aspects of buildings were particularly important for target fulfillment. These aspects include a low-carbon energy mix, a reduction of GHG emissions from construction materials and an optimized use of space. A second point of investigation concerns how municipalities can influence practices through the use of environmental requirements in construction, in particular requirements based on a life cycle approach. A survey of Swedish municipalities was used to assess their current practices and knowledge level regarding mitigating climate change impact from construction, as well as the influence of a municipality’s size on these practices. It was followed up by semi-structured interviews investigating barriers to the use of environmental requirements in construction. Barriers were identified regarding in-house skills, access to data, resources, ambiguities regarding the law and guidance from national authorities. A stepwise strategy was suggested to overcome these barriers and successfully implement environmental requirements. Therefore, the thesis as a whole provides insight on how municipalities could use environmental requirements in construction to influence current practices in the building sector, so that the changes needed to fulfill the 1.5℃ target are implemented.

QC 20190218

Global climate is changing continuously as a result of industrial revolution and rapid urbanisation in many countries of the world which has significant impacts on environment, socio-economic condition, physical and biological issues. Increase of global temperature, rainfall changes, sea level rise, occurrences of extreme weather events such as floods, cyclones, typhoons, droughts etc. are the major and direct consequences of climate change in the world (Pulhin et al., 2010, & Shaw et al., 2010). There are also many other indirect consequences of climate change such as increasing poverty, food production reduction, health nuisance, ecological imbalance, environmental degradation etc. which have adverse impacts on the society and people (Shaw et al., 2010). Considering these acute problems, people of the world are acting collectively to combat with the consequences of climate change. As for example, establishment of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), undertaking various global agreements and protocols, formulation of policies, plans etc. on climate change and disaster management are the reactions of global people to deal with climate change and climate induced natural disasters. Bangladesh is a low-laying riverine disaster prone and densely populated country with high rate of population growth. Every year she is facing various climate induced natural disasters. In addition, climate change aggravates the consequences of natural disasters and thus, Bangladesh is recognised as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world. The worst situation is facing by the people of coastal areas due to their limited access to endowed resources, high risks and vulnerabilities to climate change and disasters (ERD, 2008; Ali, 1999; & Thomolla et al.). But, the coastal areas are endowed with various resources such as mineral resources, fisheries, forestry, ports and tourism facilities etc. Over exploitation, climate change and disasters are destroying these natural resources, degrading environment and making people vulnerable to disastrous situations. Low economic development, extreme poverty, geographic location and climate make the country vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters. Moreover, Bangladesh is facing various challenges related to climate change mitigation and disaster risk reduction due to poor socio-economic condition, lack of integration, lack of incorporation of emergency plan in development activities, inefficient institutional frameworks, limited access to information, lack of scientific assessment method and tool, limited access to natural resources, no curriculum on natural hazards, funding/financial constraints (Pulhin et al., 2010). This research has been undertaken to evaluate readiness of the people to climate change adaptation and disasters risk reduction in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. The main objectives of this research are to investigate livelihoods condition of the people to tackle impacts of climate change and natural disasters, assess resilience of the community/people to climate change and natural disasters, evaluate existing institutional frameworks, policies, plans and strategies and formulate climate change adaptation strategies by reviewing strategies from international best practices. The main methods of conducting this study were desktop research; data collection through questionnaire survey and key informants interview; Data input in SPSS and Excel, processing and analysis; institutional frameworks, policies, programmes and strategies evaluation. A preliminary literature review was carried out to enrich theoretical background and understand the possible impacts of climate change and natural disasters, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and to formulate study goals and objectives. A comprehensive literature review was conducted and based on the literature review a conceptual framework of the study was developed. Socio-economic conditions such as population increase, GDP growth rate, literacy rate etc. and environmental condition such as GHGs emission, sea level rise, temperature increase etc. have been analysed to know climate change and disaster preparedness conditions of the people and severity of the impacts in Bangladesh. Impacts of climate change and disasters such as major disasters, population and GDP exposed to disasters, inundation risk, damages and losses etc. have been mentioned to comprehend the severity of the situations. Secondary data for this study was collected from different sources such as previous studies, census data, ministries and departments, World Bank, UN agencies etc. and performed the analysis. To know real world scenario a study area was selected and data related to socio-economic condition, status of preparedness of the people etc. were collected through household questionnaire survey, checklist, key informant interview, expert opinions. Data collected from questionnaire survey were analysed by SPSS and MS Excel. Based on the data collected from field survey disaster preparedness and resilience of the people to climate change and disasters have been evaluated and after evaluation it is found that people’s disaster preparedness and resilience to climate change and disasters are average or below average. Besides that, institutional frameworks and various policies, plans, strategies, programmes for disaster management, climate change mitigation and adaptation have been evaluated. Many countries of the world have recognised that regulatory and institutional frameworks of climate change and disaster management in Bangladesh is comprehensive and appropriate, and they have also enhanced disaster management capacity of the country. Related data and documents have been collected from various secondary sources and evaluated by qualitative analysis method. Policies, plans, strategies and programmes (i.e. National Plan for Disaster Management (NPDM) 2010-2015; National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)-2005; Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP)-2008 and Coastal Development Strategy (CDS)-2006) have been evaluated based on five evaluation criteria such as relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, impacts and sustainability set by Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to know their effectiveness to achieve their ultimate goals and objectives. Analysis of the institutional framework and policies, plans, programmes showed that they are comprehensive and able to achieve targeted goals and objectives. But, lack of proper integration and coordination, shortage of resources, lack of transparency and accountability are creating problems to achieve the desired outcomes. Based on drawbacks found from the analysis, recommendations on socio-economic development, coastal resources and environmental protection, developing disaster preparedness, climate change adaptation strategies and institutional regulatory framework have been provided to improve disaster preparedness and resilience of the people. After implementation of these recommendations in the study area or other parts of the country the following outcomes such as better livelihood, food security, balanced ecosystem, environmental protection, improved disaster preparedness, climate change mitigation and disaster risk reduction will be achieved.
published_or_final_version
Urban Planning and Design
Master
Master of Science in Urban Planning

Human interference with the Earth’s climate, through the release of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), is estimated to have already increased average statewide temperatures in California by 1.7° Fahrenheit (F), with a further 2.7°F of warming expected by mid-century. The negative impacts of increased temperatures may be especially acute in mid-latitude cities that currently enjoy a mild climate, such as Los Angeles (LA), which are projected to warm to a point that will significantly affect human health and well being. The built environment increases urban temperatures through building materials that readily absorb heat from the sun, a lack of vegetation, a lack of pervious surface area, and anthropogenic heat. Local governments can take action to help their cities adapt to future temperatures through changes to building materials, urban design and infrastructure. This study evaluates six urban design strategies for reducing temperatures and therefore adapting to increased heat in LA: cool roofs, cool pavements, solar panels, tree planting, structural shading and green roofs. The methods used in this analysis include a cost-effectiveness analysis, key stakeholder interviews, and case studies from other cities in the US. Findings indicate that cool roofs are the most cost-effective strategy for urban heat island mitigation, with cool pavements and tree planting also cost-effective. Findings from stakeholder interviews indicate that political feasibility is high for all strategies except structural shading, which was thought to be costly and difficult to implement. However, significant political barriers were also identified for tree planting and green roofs. Findings from four case studies indicate that climate adaptation policies should emphasize co-benefits, include flexible design standards, and provide financial or performance-based incentives for property owners or developers. Specific recommendations for implementing climate adaptation measures are provided for urban planners, policy makers, urban designers and architects in Los Angeles.

The global increase in demand for dwelling energy and implications of changing climatic conditions on buildings require the built environment to build sustainable dwellings. The aim of this thesis is to apply passive mitigation and adaptation design strategies to newly detached residential buildings in the UK with the view to identify the key building envelop and systems parameters to secure the right balance of energy consumption and thermal comfort in dwellings. In addition, currently, acceptable robust validation process for validating space temperatures is required, as existing simulation software validation is geared toward energy consumption. The thesis further aims to apply an effective validation method to the validation of building simulation indoor temperatures. This thesis comprised of six case studies. In the first study, Bland-Altman’s method of comparison is used as a validation technique in validating space temperatures in building simulation application. This is a newly developed knowledge in civil and construction engineering research in validating thermal analysis simulation software. The relevance of this approach is due to the emergent understanding that the goodness of fit measures used in current building simulation model validation are inadequate coupled with that fact that the current simulation software validation are geared toward energy consumption. In the second study, global Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis is performed on two differing weather patterns of UKCIP02 and UKCP09 weather data sets to compare their impact on future thermal performance of dwellings when use in thermal analysis simulation. The investigation seeks to ascertain the influential weather parameters which affect future dwelling indoor temperatures. The case study when compared to literature affirms the mean radiant temperature and the dry bulb air temperature as the key parameters which influence operative temperatures in dwellings. The third study, the extent of impact of climate change on key building performance parameters in a free running residential building is quantified. The key findings from this study were that the average percentage decrease for the annual energy consumption was predicted to be 2.80, 6.60 and 10.56 for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s time lines respectively. A similar declining trend in the case of annual natural gas consumption was 4.24, 9.98 and 16.1, and that for building emission rate and heating demand were 2.27, 5.49 and 8.72 and 7.82, 18.43 and 29.46 respectively. This decline is in consonance with the range of annual average temperature change predicted by the GCM based on the IPCC scenarios (IPCC, 2001) which generally shows an increase in temperature over stipulated timelines. The study further showed that future predicted temperature rise might necessitate the increasing use of cooling systems in residential buildings. The introduction of cooling to offset overheating risk, the trend of heating and cooling demand shows progressive increase variability with an average percentage increase of 0.53, 4.68 and 8.12 for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s timelines respectively. It is therefore observed that the introduction of cooling cancels out the energy gains related to heating due to future climatic variability. The fourth, fifth and sixth case studies consider the integrated passive mitigation strategies of varying future climatic conditions, variable occupant behaviour, building orientation, adequate provision of thermal mass, advance glazing, appropriate ventilation and sufficient level of external shading which influence the potential thermal performance of dwellings and a methodology that combines thermal analysis modelling and simulation coupled with the application of CIBSE TM52 adaptive overheating criteria to investigate the thermal comfort and energy balance of dwellings and habitable conservatories. In the fourth study, the impact of four standardized construction specifications on thermal comfort on detached dwellings in London, Birmingham and Glasgow are considered. The results revealed that the prime factor for the variation of indoor temperatures is the variability of climatic patterns. In addition, London is observed to experience more risk of thermal discomfort than Birmingham and Glasgow over the time period for the analysis. The total number of zones failing 2 or 3 CIBSE TM52 overheating criteria is more in London than in Birmingham and Glasgow. It was also observed that progressive increase in thermal mass of the standardized construction specifications decrease the indoor temperature swings but increase in future operative temperatures. The day ventilation scenario was seen not to be effective way of mitigating internal heat gains in London and Birmingham. The opposite was observed in Glasgow. Night ventilation coupled with shading offered the best mitigation strategy in reducing indoor temperatures in London and Birmingham. In the fifth study, Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis is used to determine the impact of standard construction specifications and UKCP09 London weather files on thermal comfort in residential buildings. Consideration of London urban heat island effect in the CIBSE TM49 weather files leading to the generation of three different weather data sets for London is analysed. The key findings of the study indicated that in the uncertainty analysis (box and whiskers plots), the medians for the day ventilation scenarios are generally higher than those of the night ventilation and further higher than the night ventilation with shading scenarios. This shows that applying mitigation scenarios of night ventilation and shading have a significant impact on reducing internal operative temperatures. In addition, the sensitivity analysis shows glazing as the most dominant parameter in enhancing thermal comfort. The sensitivity of glazing to thermal comfort increases from Gatwick, with London Weather Centre having the highest sensitivity index. This could be attributed to the urban heat island effect of central London, leading to higher internal operative temperatures. The study thus shows that more consideration should be given to glazing and internal heat gains than floor and wall construction when seeking to improve the thermal comfort of dwellings. Finally, the sixth study considers the use of passive solar design of conservatories as a viable solution of reducing energy consumption, enhancing thermal comfort and mitigating climate change. The results show that the judicious integration of the passive solar design strategies in conservatories with increasing conservatory size in elongated south facing orientation with an aspect ratio of at least 1.67 could progressively decrease annual energy consumption (by 5 kWh/m2), building emission rate (by 2.0 KgCO2/m2) and annual gas consumption (by 7 kWh/m2) when the conservatory is neither heated nor air-conditioned. Moreover, the CIBSE TM52 overheating analysis showed that the provision of optimum ventilation strategy depending on the period of the year coupled with the efficient design of awnings/overhangs and the provision of external adjustable shading on the east and west facades of the conservatory could significantly enhance the thermal comfort of conservatories. The findings from these case studies indicate that thermal comfort in dwellings can be enhanced by analysis of future climatic patterns, improved building fabric and provision of passive design consideration of improved ventilation and shading. They also confirm that the utilization of appropriate mitigation strategies to enhance thermal comfort could contribute to the reduction of the environmental implications to the built environment and facilitate the drive towards the attainment of future sustainability requirements.

This publication summarizes the main results of the INCAProject during 2011/2012 and the contributions to the according INCA-Summer-School, which took place from September 19th – September 27th 2012 at the Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Institute of International Forestry and Forest Products, Professorship of Tropical Forestry in Tharandt, Germany.:AN INTERNATIONAL NETWORK ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON SMALL FARMERS IN THE TROPICAL ANDES – GLOBAL CONVENTIONS FROM A LOCAL PERSPECTIVE S. 1 1. Introduction S. 2 2. The concept of an International Network on Climate Change S. 5 3. The outlook on an endogenous approach S. 9 4. References S. 12 ADAPTATION MEASURES S. 17 Adaptation strategies of Andean campesinos to cope with the climatic variability – Examples from the Mantaro Valley, Peru S. 18 A socio-economic analysis of livelihood strategies in rural forest depending communities in lowland Bolivia under a changing climate S. 20 Who knows what and why? Intra-cultural knowledge variation of agroforestry plants S. 21 Traditional ecological knowledge, resilience and food security: local strategies in three communities in the Yungas ecosystem, La Paz, Bolivia S. 22 Influence of agroforestry systems in risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Peruvian Andes S. 24 Assessing adaptation to climate change: Environmental and socio-economic changes in the Andes of Bolivia S. 26 Adaptive capacity of rural communities to climate change in the bio-cultural system of the Andes, Bolivia S. 28 Socio-economic analysis of farm-forestry systems: Case studies from Achamayo and Palcazu watersheds, Peruvian Andes S. 29 MONITORING AND MODELING LAND USE CHANGE S.33 Modeling and forecast of changes in land-use and land-cover caused by climate change in the Peruvian Andes S. 34 Land-use and land-cover change in Cotapata National Park – Natural integrated management area, Bolivia S. 37 Monitoring and analyzing land-use / land-cover changes using remote sensing and GIS in the Achamayo and Shullcas region, Peruvian Andes S. 39 Climate change and land-use in the Bolivian Andes S. 41 Modeling the adaptation strategies of farmers of the Andes against climate change and the related development of land-use / land-cover S. 43 MANAGEMENT OF A CHANGING LANDSCAPE S. 45 Evaluating the strategies for the management of biophysical resources in farm communities of the Mantaro Valley, Central Andes of Peru S. 46 Participative planning, monitoring and evaluation system in bio-cultural local communities S. 50 The monitoring program in Apolobamba protected area S. 51 Progress in the diagnosis of biodiversity vulnerability to climate change in Bolivia S. 52 Sectoral program of adaptation to climate change of biodiversity and ecosystems S. 53 DEFORESTATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE S. 55 Possible interactions between climate projections and deforestation scenarios in Bolivia S. 56 Transport and possible climate impacts of aerosols from biomass burning from the Amazon to the Bolivian Andes S. 56 Transboundary air pollution in southern Amazon of Peru S. 57 SUMMARY S. 59 Challenges presented by climate change in the Andean region: Land-use cover change and adaptive response of small farmers S. 60 List of participants and additional information S. 62

This thesis is a critical evaluation of the theory and practice of Sustainable Supply Chain Management (SSCM). It seeks to understand why SSCM theory has so little to say about environmental sustainability and to explore how SSCM practice is contributing towards the transition towards sustainable development. I conjecture that SSCM scholars have not engaged sufficiently with the broader sustainability literature and other constructions of sustainability, which has led to a lack of theory development within SSCM. The sustainability paradigms framework that forms the core of the thesis was developed in order to broaden the discussion around sustainability within SSCM. Specifically, it embraces the contested nature of the concept of sustainability and uses multiple sustainability paradigms to construct future directions for theory development. In order to put the concept of environmental sustainability at the centre of SSCM theory, the concept of ‘environmental effectiveness’ was developed which seeks to differentiate between environmentally sustainable strategies and those that merely seek to achieve reductions in unsustainability. In order to evaluate the practice of SSCM, a case study was conducted. The concept of ‘environmental effectiveness’ is operationalized through the use of non-perceptual measures related to carbon emissions and evaluates the extent to which SSCM practices contribute towards climate stabilization, a key sustainability objective. It is found that those SSCM practices that have been shown to improve ‘environmental performance’ within the extant SSCM literature did not deliver ‘environmentally effective performance’ within the case study. This raises the possibility that the literature has mistaken reductions in unsustainability for sustainability proper and that we may need to go back to basics. The findings are discussed with reference to the sustainability paradigms framework and multiple opportunities for theory development within SSCM are explored.

There is increasing concern about potential climate-driven regime shifts– large abrupt shifts in social-ecological systems that could have large impacts onecosystems services and human well-being. This paper aims to synthesize the potentialpathways for building resilience to such regime shifts. Ten examples from the RegimeShift Database provided the cases for analysis. Causal loop diagrams were used toanalyze feedback mechanisms at different scales and identify “leverage points” –places to intervene in the system in order to build resilience. Sixteen of these leveragepoints were identified, most of which relate to agricultural management. Mostfeedback mechanisms include at least one leverage point highlighting the potential forbuilding resilience to climate-induced regime shifts. The most common leverage pointsidentified in our analyses were vegetation cover, algae volume and atmospherictemperature. These leverage points were compared to mitigation strategies discussedby the IPCC. This comparison indicates that current climate change mitigationstrategies do not alter most of the leverage points directly. This suggests that IPCCstrategies should be broadened in order to reduce the risk of regime shifts, and theassociated impacts on human well-being.

Some sociologists have suggested that focusing on individual behaviour change to reduce emissions detracts attention from larger structural issues. The first part of this thesis draws on mixed methods (1 interview study and 3 experimental studies) to look at the relationship between views on individual and structural levels of climate change mitigation. Interviewees mostly suggested individual behaviour change as a means for addressing climate change. The subsequent experimental studies investigate to what extent support for structural level change is minimised by focusing attention on individual behaviour change, but no such evidence emerged. However, there are other unexpected outcomes: for example, participants judge recycling to be one of the most impactful behaviours, illustrating that people's judgements of effective climate change mitigation may need revising. The second part of the thesis relates to suggestions that lack of personal experience of climate change partly explains people's inaction. Drawing on fieldwork consisting of 77 interviews conducted in California on people's experience of drought, I firstly explore how people experience the drought itself; such as what changes they note and how drought perceptions are influenced by location. Secondly, I discuss whether and why people tend to think that drought and climate change are related or not. Importantly, people mostly interpret the drought according to their pre-existing climate change beliefs, so that if they already believed climate change was happening then the drought is treated as further evidence, whereas those who were sceptical of climate change usually see the drought as part of a natural cycle. In conjunction these studies expand the existing literature on views towards climate change mitigation and the role that personal experience plays in understandings of climate change.

In 2015, the Paris Agreement was signed by nations all over the world. The new climate agreementwill replace previous Kyoto Protocol post-2020 and will likely change the conditions for using carbonoffsetting. It is probable that even more stringent controls will be required to ensure a credible carbon marketwhich avoids double counting and secures environmental integrity. Voluntary use of offsetting has to becompatible with the new rules set under the Paris Agreement to manage these risks. More countries will countemission reductions to their new nationally determined contributions, and therefore increases the risk ofdouble counting. Hence, the purpose of this master thesis was to reveal how the Swedish companies’ currentuse of voluntary carbon offsetting is compatible with the likely carbon market post-2020. The companiesreasons as why they use voluntary carbon offsetting, together with their underlying ethical view, based ontheir practices around carbon offsetting, were investigated. Eight qualitative semi-structured interviews withSwedish companies using voluntary carbon offsetting were conducted during February - March in 2020. Theresult was analysed through the ethical theories consequentialist and duty-based theory to understand theirunderlying ethical view in relation to their carbon offsetting. The result showed that there are two primaryreasons as why companies use voluntary carbon offsetting. The first reason is that voluntary carbon offsettingis a part of their strategy to reduce their climate impact, and the second reason is to gain the trust of customersand marketing themselves through voluntary carbon offsetting. The thesis concludes that for the companies’to best guarantee the expected outcome of their offsetting, and be compatible with the post-2020 carbonoffsetting, they should have a combination of consequentialist and duty-based underlying ethical view withstrong follow up. Furthermore, regardless of reason for using voluntary carbon offsetting, or their ethicalview towards the action, the companies may choose to move to the alternative of financially supportingthe host countries in their work to reduce their GHG emissions instead of offsetting post-2020.

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

O clima é um dos fatores ambientais que impõe os maiores riscos para a atividade agrícola, sendo responsável pelas oscilações e frustrações das safras no Brasil. Em cenário de mudanças climáticas, os atuais níveis de produtividade do milho de 1ª e de 2ª safra deverão ser alterados. Para se avaliar tais impactos, os modelos de simulação de culturas possibilitam estimar o crescimento, o desenvolvimento fenológico e a produtividade das culturas sob ampla gama de condições ambientais e de manejo, sendo, portanto, ferramentas eficientes para esse tipo de estudo. Considerando os possíveis impactos das mudanças climáticas na produtividade da cultura do milho, o presente estudo teve por objetivos: i) realizar preenchimento de falhas em séries de dados meteorológicos e, gerar séries sob projeções futuras do clima a curto (2010- 2039), médio (2040-2069) e longo (2070-2099) prazos, para os cenários de emissão intermediária (RCP4.5) e de alta emissão (RCP8.5); ii) calibrar e validar os modelos DSSAT/CERES-Maize e MONICA para simular a produtividade do milho de 1ª e de 2ª safra, e analisar a sensibilidade desses modelos, identificando os fatores de maior influência na produtividade do milho; iii) aplicar o modelo DSSAT/CERES-Maize, para determinar a produtividade do milho de 1ª e de 2ª safra, em condições de clima atual e futuro, e avaliar possíveis estratégias de manejo, de forma individual e combinada, como épocas de semeadura, ciclo da cultivar, irrigação e adubação nitrogenada, para minimização dos possíveis impactos. Para o preenchimento de falhas em séries de dados meteorológicos, o método de Bristow- Campbell (estimação da radiação solar), e a base em ponto de grade XAVIER foram as que apresentaram melhor desempenho. As projeções de clima futuro evidenciaram condições de clima mais quente, com redução no total acumulado de chuva nas regiões Norte-Nordeste e aumento no Sul do país, e as regiões Sudeste e Centro-Oeste configurando como áreas de transição. Os modelos DSSAT/CERES-Maize e MONICA apresentaram índice de desempenho (c) muito bom para ambas as safras, na estimação da produtividade do milho, com EAM inferior a 450 e 350 kg ha-1 na 1ª e na 2ª safra, respectivamente. Para as estimativas por conjunto, os valores de c foram avaliados como ótimos para as duas safras, com EAM caindo para 276 e 194 kg ha-1, na 1ª e na 2ª safra, respectivamente. Ambos os modelos mostraram sensibilidade às alterações climáticas e de adubação, porém com o modelo DSSAT/CERES-Maize se mostrando mais adequado para estudos de impactos de mudanças climáticas na cultura do milho. As simulações sob clima futuro com o modelo DSSAT/CERES-Maize, mostraram perdas de produtividade em relação aos atuais níveis, variando de 41 a 63% para milho da 1ª safra, e de 58 a 65% para o milho da 2ª safra, com as estratégias de manejo quanto a data de semeadura, ciclo da cultivar, irrigação e adubação nitrogenada mostrando redução das perdas e até mesmo ganhos de produtividade quando adotadas em condições de clima futuro.
Climate is one of the major environmental factors that impose the greatest risks for the agricultural activity, being responsible for the oscillations and frustrations of the crops in Brazil. In a scenario of climate change, the current yield levels of maize growing in-season and offseason should be impacted. In order to evaluate such impacts, crop simulation models allow estimating the growth, phenological development and yield under a wide range of environmental and crop management conditions, being efficient tools for applying to this kind of study. Considering the possible impacts of climate change on maize crop yield, the present study had as objectives: i) to fill gaps in meteorological data series and to generate series under future climate projections in the short (2010-2039), medium (2040-2069) and long (2070-2099) terms periods, for the intermediate emission (RCP4.5) and high emission (RCP8.5) scenarios; ii) to calibrate and validate the DSSAT/CERES-Maize and MONICA models to simulate inseason and off-season maize yield and to analyze the sensitivity of these models, identifying the factors that have the major influence on yield; (iii) to apply the DSSAT/CERES-Maize model to determine maize yield in the in-season and off-season, under current and future climate conditions, and evaluate possible crop management strategies, individually and in combination, such as sowing dates, crop cycle, irrigation and nitrogen fertilization, to minimize possible negative impacts. In order to fill the gaps in meteorological data series, the Bristow- Campbell method (for solar radiation estimation) and the XAVIER daily gridded database were the ones that presented the best performance. The projections of future climate showed warmer climate conditions, with a reduction in the rainfall amounts in the North-Northeast and an increase in the South of the country, with the Southeast and Center-West regions representing transition areas. Both DSSAT/CERES-Maize and MONICA models showed very good performance index (c) in the estimation of maize yield for both seasons, with MAE lower than 450 and 350 kg ha-1 during the in-season and off-season, respectively. For the ensemble estimation, the estimation improve, with optimal performance index, with MAE falling to 276 and 194 kg ha-1, for in-season and off-season maize growing, respectively. Both models showed sensitivity to climate change and fertilization, but with the DSSAT/CERES-Maize model being more suitable for studies of climate change impacts on maize crop. The simulations under future climate with DSSAT/CERES-Maize model showed a yield loss in relation to current levels, ranging from 41 to 63% for in-season, and from 58 to 65% for off-season, with management strategies regarding sowing date, cultivar cycle, irrigation and nitrogen fertilization, showing reduction of losses and even yield gains when adopted in the future climate conditions.

As increasingly recognised by scholars, climate change is posing new challenges in the field of risk management and urban planning. The natural and anthropogenic risks that characterise a given territory, see their effects amplified by those of climate change. Even though cultural heritage has passed through decades and centuries, it has never experienced such unexpected and variable events as those forecasted by climate change for the foreseeable future, making it a sensitive element of the living environment. This thesis, whose general context has been defined and provided by the European H2020 SHELTER project, aims at defining guidelines to reduce the gap between disaster risk management and urban planning in the field of cultural heritage in historic areas. To this aim, the current integration of both cultural heritage and protection and prevention measures within planning policies and tools for the case study of Ravenna has been explored, reported and analysed, with a specific focus on the church and archaeological area of Santa Croce. The specific objective is to understand to what extent data risk management, climate change adaptation and heritage site management are currently treated as key interlinked elements. The results obtained have led to the definition of a protocol for integrating climate change and disaster risks management into heritage management which is articulated into six phases. As part of the protocol, an evaluation method of how urban planning tools already in force contribute to the adaptive capacity of Ravenna’ territory in terms of treating and dealing with risk management has been proposed and validated. The proposed guidelines may lead to the improvement of the heritage management plans that heritage site managers applies to cope with risks related and the effects of climate change. Lastly, three punctual design actions for increasing the resilience of the area of Santa Croce have been explored.

For the past 25 years (1990-1015), the state of Ghana forests have experienced loss of cover by 2% annually. Deforestation has therefore, characterised the state the forest ecosystems all these years. Severally drivers of deforestation mostly anthropogenic, have caused the diverse degrees of forest loss in the various forest sub-types within the studied area. Notably are; agriculture which was predominate driver in 1990-2010 while mining and mineral exploration from 2011-2015 as the most principle cause of the forest calamity. Deforestation has contributed to the fast rising effects of climate change in Ghana of which evidences are clearly shown in rising temperatures and drought and flooding cases resulting from unannounced rainfall patterns.

This publication summarizes the main results of the INCAProject during 2011/2012 and the contributions to the according INCA-Summer-School, which took place from September 19th – September 27th 2012 at the Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Institute of International Forestry and Forest Products, Professorship of Tropical Forestry in Tharandt, Germany.

In response to growing environmental concerns, policy makers in Canada have been developing climate change mitigation strategies that will enable Canada to meet medium and long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The water industry is energy- and carbon-intensive, thus the magnitude and long-term uncertainty of proposed carbon mitigation policies could have implications for water distribution system capital planning decisions that are made today. The intent of this thesis was to examine the implications of discount rate and carbon price uncertainty on cost, energy use and GHG emissions in the design/optimization of the Amherstview water distribution system in Loyalist Township, Ontario, Canada. A non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm is coupled with the hydraulic solver EPANET2 in a single-objective optimization approach to identify network expansion designs that minimize total cost as the sum of: i) capital cost of installing new and parallel pipes and of cleaning and lining existing pipes; ii) operation cost of electricity for pumping water; and iii) carbon cost levied on electricity used for pumping water. The Amherstview system was optimized for a range of discount rates and carbon prices reflective of possible climate change mitigation strategies in Canada over the next 50 years. The problem formulation framework was developed according to a “real-world” municipal approach to water distribution system design and expansion. Decision variables such as pipe sizes are restricted to “real-world” commercially-available pipe diameters and parameter values are chosen according to engineering judgment and best-estimates. Parameter uncertainty is characterized by sensitivity analysis rather than the more computationally-demanding and data-intensive Monte Carlo simulation method. The impact of pipe material selection on energy use and GHG emissions was investigated for polyvinyl chloride and cement-mortar lined ductile iron pipes. Results from this first-ever study indicate that the discount rate and carbon prices investigated had no significant influence on energy use and GHG emissions in the Amherstview system. Pipe material selection was also found to minimally affect the amount of GHG emitted in the Amherstview system.
Thesis (Master, Civil Engineering) -- Queen's University, 2010-08-26 15:01:27.174

This dissertation examines issues related to avian influenza (AI) disease. This is done via three essays that individually examine: (1) the impacts of climate change on the probability and expected numbers of AI outbreaks and associated economic loss; (2) the effects that media coverage of AI outbreaks has on meat demand in the United States, and (3) the potential effectiveness of AI mitigation strategies on poultry production and welfare under a simulated AI outbreak in United States. The climate change and spread of AI outbreaks study finds that the probability and expected number of AI outbreaks increases as climate change proceeds. Particularly, past climate change has contributed to the current spread of AI disease by 11% and the future climate change will increase this spread by another 12%. Moreover, the underreporting probability of AI outbreaks is also examined and results show that the underreporting probability is much higher in countries with lower gross domestic production level, larger export of poultry products and more numbers of AI confirmed human deaths. Therefore, disease prevention and control plans should focus on these economically poor and climatically changed regions. AI outbreak information has significant effects on meat demand in the United States. In particular, impacts of overseas AI human deaths on meat demand equal 0.02% for beef, -0.005% for pork, and -0.01% for chicken for sample when there was no AI occurred in the United States, while it has smaller impacts on meat expenditure when using the whole sample. In addition, human deaths due to AI disease will increase beef demand and decrease that for pork and chicken. However, AI media coverage in short-run has insignificant effect on meat demand, which suggests that consumers are more cautious when cases occur within the United States as opposed to international cases. In the study on the effects and welfare implications of AI mitigation strategies, results find that vaccination strategy is welfare decreasing under most cases of demand shocks but is desirable in some regions when both domestic and excess demand decrease. Under the assumption of one AI outbreak in the United States, the associated mitigation costs because of past climate change are relatively small.

Ethiopia is an agrarian country dominated by subsistence farming which is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study was therefore carried out to assess smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change and adaptation strategies followed to prevent vulnerability to climate change in the Medium and Upper highlands of the Amhara region of Ethiopia. Data was collected from 300 sample smallholder farmers using questionnaire, key informant interviews, and Focus Group discussions with farmers and experts. The survey result showed that households differ in terms of asset endowments, vulnerability, and coping and adaptation capability to climate change. About 87.3% noticed climatic change and their perception of climatic variable attributes indicated about 75% felt a decline in the amount of rainfall, 52.6% stated early onset, about 66.6 % showed late on set, 84% expressed poor distribution of rainfall, high temperature (83.7%) and desiccating wind (52.7%). The major adaptation strategies employed by the majority of small holder farmers included enhancing traditional irrigation, use of drought tolerant and early maturing varieties, converting farm land to tree growing and relay cropping immediately after harvesting. The coping strategies to climate variability are largely related to migrating to urban areas, engaging in daily work, selling of fuel wood and asset while mitigation measures have focused on ecosystem rehabilitation. “Multi Nominal Logit” (MNL) model analysis indicated gender, education, off farm activity, farm size, ownership of oxen, farmer to farmer extension, access to credit and information on climate change as determinants of adaptation to climate change and variability. Institutional support to farmers’ efforts to adapt to climate change is generally weak. The overall analysis leads to conclude that despite the presence of awareness on climate change and its likely impacts on livelihoods of the smallholder farmer, development intervention at local level are not systematically designed to address the problems of the resource poor farmers and environmental challenges. In the immediate future there is an urgent need to capitalize on existing awareness, document, package and disseminate successful adaptation interventions to farmers. As a long term solution it is recommended that institutions in charge of climate change need to develop a national drought and climate change management strategic plan with full accountability to facilitate ecosystem development, resilience against climate change and ultimately improvements in the livelihood of farmers. Such interventions could potentially be achieved by taking practical measures on policy support and Institutional building for climate change, knowledge management on adaptation to climate change, filling technological gaps related to agriculture including livestock husbandry in the context of climate change, applying innovative local level participatory land use planning and promoting livelihood diversification initiatives that could enable small holder farmers create assets to enhance their livelihoods.
Environmental Sciences
D. Phil. (Environment Management)

Linking climate change to sustainable development has caused a shift in the focus of the climate change discourse. The main discourse concerns the environment, poverty and sustainable development. This development discourse will help future researchers to negotiate the often contested and sometimes politicized agenda around the debate on the value of climate change to local development policies. The time has come to take into consideration IKS and the role it plays in community life. extremely seriously. IKS need to be recognised and integrated into development strategies by all levels of government. At the same time, it is necessary to understand and explore the potential contribution of IKS to local development. Recognition and integration of IKS into development strategies or policies requires research. However, research into IKS should ideally be carried out with the participation of the local communities. Research has shown that women are best experienced in IKS and ha\e developed resilient systems to mitigate and resolve local problems. Through life orientation they hold strategic IKS and turn out to be more active in the local development agenda The findings were that people were highly dependent on government grants since there were no job opportunities due to a decline in farming activities and excessive weather conditions. These factors were in turn causing unusual diseases, migration of people from rural to urban areas in search of job opportunities and developments. Drought and veldt fires also led to a decline in grazing pastures and numbers of livestock . Extinction of indigenous plants. premature deaths, water scarcity and dried-up fountains that used to supply the community members with water are attributes of climate change leading to lack of development. It was revealed that developments take time to reach rural people because their voices were not heard by those who are in power. Lack of community consultation on developments and prioritization of community needs were matters s of concern to the respondents.
Thesis (M.Soc.Sc.(Indigenous Knowledge Systems) North-West University, Mafikeng Campus, 2013

碩士
國立中興大學
水土保持學系所
101
In recent years, the global climate change has led to increased frequency and scale of disasters and caused severe floods around the world. Under the impacts of compound disasters caused by extreme climate due to global climate change, Taiwan society is experiencing more and more risk of suffering disasters. This has made the disaster prevention and rescue work are also getting more difficult and caused serious impacts on the lives and property of people. Therefore, the purpose of this study is, based on the reasons of causing damage, to investigate the flood prevention and mitigation strategies to mitigate flood disasters in Taimali River affected by strong rainfall caused by Typhoon Morakot in 2009 year. This study assessed the damages of hydraulic structures through field inspections by the experts and scholars and interviews of the residents. Comparing with overflow causing flood due to exceeding flood protection standard, the hydraulic structures damaged by flood is more serious. Therefore, the new levees should not only be constructed in accordance with governance plan but also be taken strengthening the types of levees into account in response to compound disasters, from the view point of improvement, so as to reduce the frequency of surffering daming again . Considering the reduced design standard of flood control due to limitations of engineering measures and the impacts of climate change and the improved but insufficient basic standard with engineering measures due to limited financial capacity, it is recommended to promote non-engineering measures such as self-protection communities for flood disaster. With the concept of implementing all-citizen disaster prevention and strengthening self-protection capability of flood mitigation, the goal of zero sacrifice, loss minimization and low disaster risks could be reached.

The main objective of this study is to evaluate climate change mitigation strategies in the forestry and energy sectors in the SADC with emphasis on the DRC and the RSA. This study is evaluative and cross-sectional. Its results were got through interviews of 56 key informants using the interview guide, and four focus group discussions in the DRC based on the focus group guide. The non-probability sample, mainly the purposive sample and the snowballing sampling were used. After the data analysis, the following results were found: In terms of the strategies for fighting drivers of deforestation both in the DRC and in RSA, it was revealed that the DRC focuses more on the REDD+ projects and NGO activities while the RSA protects its small existing natural forests through Acts, laws, advanced research and establishment of commercial plantations. The results which are related to the contribution of REDD programmes and NGOs to climate change mitigation in the RSA and the DRC have revealed that there are no REDD programmes in the RSA for carbon stock. In the DRC, the NOVACEL REDD+ pilot project has a carbon stock of 60 000 tons which continues to grow with 8 tons of CO2 /ha/year; 210 tons/ha/year on the left side of the Congo River, and on the right side 195 tons/ha/year is generated by the Isangi Geographically Integrated REDD+ pilot project. The WCS Mambasa Forestry REDD+ pilot project has 230 tons/ha/year, while 16 000 tons of CO2/year are stocked under the Luki REDD+ pilot project. The Eco-Makala and Equatorial REDD+ pilot projects have not yet estimated their carbon stocks. Regarding the involvement of the civil society in activities of climate change mitigation in the DRC, people are more involved in REDD’s alternative activities which are funded by the projects. However, in the RSA, people are used as labour in commercial plantations. The RSA derives its major energy from coal (94%) but the DRC has a high potential in hydropower that can generate up to 100 000 MGW. On the use of remote sensing, both the DRC and the RSA employ remote sensing but the RSA has a Spatial Agency while the DRC does not
College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences
D. Litt. et Phil. (Environmental Science)

Climate change has come to be understood as a deleterious phenomenon, which threatens business, society and ecological systems, thus making it imperative to understand its impact on human, social and economic activities as well as the impact of these activities on climate change. Against this background, this research sought to determine climate change intervention strategies in the mining supply chain in general, specifically focussing on opencast mining contracting and plant hire companies’ practices. This focus on the mining industry was driven by its importance in South Africa and globally, despite its significant direct and indirect contribution to climatic changes. The mixed-methods multiple case study focused on the climate change management of the Mutual Construction Company Group of Companies (MCCGC), an open cast toll mining firm and equipment supplier. Limited to two sites, Pilanesberg Platinum Mines (PPM) and Tharisa Minerals (Tharisa) Mines, the researcher gathered data through interviews, questionnaires, observations and document review. Data was analysed through deductive content analysis. The research made three major findings: (i) the MCCGC, like its principals PPM and Tharisa, does not have an explicit climate change management strategy. Instead, climate change is managed indirectly through implicit strategies seeking to manage environment, health and safety concerns of the mines, (ii) as a contractor, the MCCGC has had to adopt PPM and Tharisa’s implicit approach to climate change management strategies to meet contractual obligations, instead of an explicit approach and, (iii) the MCCGC and its principals’ commitment to environment, health and safety management, and implicitly climate change management, is not mere rhetoric but is being put into practice. The research concluded that MCCGC’s lack of expressed climate change management intentions and practices exposed the firm to climate change risks, most notably financial risks and reputation risks. Financial risks arise from possible ex post climate change liability. In addition, MCCGC is risking its contract tenures, particularly if the two mines change ownership and the new owners insist on an explicit rather than implied climate change strategy with all its suppliers. Reputational risks arise from the possible failure to attract new clientele and investors who may perceive MCCGC as a risky partner, due to an inept climate change intervention strategy
College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences
M. Sc. (Environmental Management)

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O turismo é uma importante fonte de crescimento económico e uma indústria de grande importância na Região Autónoma da Madeira. Este trabalho pretende incidir sobre a sensibilidade da indústria a variações climáticas e às condições climatéricas. As inevitáveis alterações, a que teremos de nos adaptar, acarretam consequências que podem eventualmente levar a situações que alterem o fluxo turístico da RAM. O aumento da temperatura tem como consequências a subida do nível do mar, o aumento da ocorrência de eventos climáticos extremos, introdução e propagação de novas espécies no nosso ecossistema, escassez de água e aumento do consumo energético. É importante apurar quais as expectativas do turista acerca do destino Madeira, e tentar chegar a uma conclusão acerca da vulnerabilidade do destino e das estratégias de mitigação possíveis, para proteger a imagem do destino e preservar a relevância do setor no panorama internacional turístico. Com base numa amostra de cerca de 300 turistas foi possível obter uma série de conclusões e observações úteis sobre o tema analisado.
Tourism is a valuable source for economic growth and a very important industry in the Autonomous Region of Madeira. This thesis plans to focus on the industry’s sensitivity to climate and weather variation and change. The inevitable changes to which we will have to adjust, have consequences that might eventually lead to touristic flow altering situations. The temperature rise is expected to induce certain changes such as sea level rise, increased occurrence of extreme weather events, introduction and proliferation of new species in ecosystems, water scarcity and increasing energy consumption. It is important to identify tourist’s expectations about the destination Madeira, trying to reach a conclusion on the vulnerability of the destination and the possible mitigation strategies that would lead to the protection of the destination’s image while maintaining its relevance in the international touristic market. Based on a sample of approximately 300 tourists it was possible to draw a series of observations and conclusions on the topic discussed.