Journal articles on the topic '190103 Social impacts of climate change and variability'
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TIANA, Bam H. R. "Rural Community’s Livelihood Security and Perception of Climate Variability and Change to Better Address Climate Change Adaptation -Case Study in East Central Madagascar." Volume 5 - 2020, Issue 9 - September 5, no. 9 (September 29, 2020): 634–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt20sep332.
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Madagascar is exposed to a variety of natural hazards, including seasonal cyclones, floods and droughts that have severe impacts on the national economy, mainly dependent on agriculture. Due to these problems, the security of livelihoods is threatened and although Madagascar people had the historic ability to cope with these threats, it is of prime importance to consider climate change adaptation in a more holistic manner in the face of climate change and variability. However, for adaptation to be appropriately enacted there is a need to understand how local context and conditions are. For that, this study aims to understand livelihood security as well as rural community’s perception to climate variability and change and their impacts in order to better address climate change adaptation. The first step is to understand how local livelihoods are characterized, what local conditions are, and how they are related to occurring changes and impacts through a case study in Alaotra Region in East Central Madagascar. An analysis of livelihood resources (human, natural, social, physical and financial capital), livelihood strategies and outcomes was coupled with an investigation of communities’ perception on the climate variability and impacts on their lives and livelihoods. Findings showed that livelihoods of local communities, living mainly from agriculture and fisheries, are threatened by a degrading environment and related impacts, exacerbated by a changing climate. Households are facing climate extremes which directly affect their livelihoods, already characterized by limited assets and entitlements. Outputs from this study are believed to further contribute to understand the factors that need to be considered to better address adaptation strategies based on the current vulnerability and climate variability, both at present time and in the future.
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Basiru, Adeniyi Okanlawon, Abiodun Olusegun Oladoye, Olubusayo Omotola Adekoya, Lucas Aderemi Akomolede, Vincent Onguso Oeba, Opeyemi Oluwaseun Awodutire, Fredrick Charity, and Emmanuel Kolawole Abodunrin. "Livelihood Vulnerability Index: Gender Dimension to Climate Change and Variability in REDD + Piloted Sites, Cross River State, Nigeria." Land 11, no. 8 (August 4, 2022): 1240. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land11081240.
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Vulnerability to climate change and variability impacts has been identified as a major cog in the wheel of both livelihood and resilience, particularly in vulnerable groups in rural areas. This study aims to assess genders’ vulnerability dimension to climate change and variability in REDD + (Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation+) piloted site/clusters, Cross River State, Nigeria. Data were proportionately collected from selected 200 respondents on gender disaggregated level using questionnaires. The assessment adopted the sustainable livelihood approach (livelihood vulnerability index) and compared the results with the IPCC vulnerability standard of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity weighted mean. The results revealed a significant difference in the vulnerability dimension of both women and men disaggregated levels (LVI: men 0.509, women 0.618). The women category was more vulnerable to six out of seven major components of LVI assessed: (livelihood strategies (0.646), social networks (0.364), water (0.559), health (0.379), food and nutrition (0.507), and natural hazards and climate variability (0.482), while men only vulnerable to socio-demographic major component (0.346). Vulnerability indices also showed women to be more exposed (0.482), and sensitive (0.489) with the least adaptive capacities (0.462) to the climate change and variability impacts. Overall, on the IPCC-LVI index, women are more vulnerable (0.0098) to climate change and variability impacts than men (−0.0093). The study recommends that the women's category resilience and adaptive capacity should be empowered in adaptation projects in climate change such as REDD + (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation+) to reduce their vulnerability to impacts of climate change and variability in the context of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacities. This will be instrumental in formulating policies to address the specific needs of gender categories in reducing vulnerability to climate change and variability. This pragmatic approach may be used to monitor gender vulnerability dimension, and livelihood enhancement and evaluate potential climate change adaptation programs. Additionally, the introduction of IPCC-LVI as a baseline instrument will enhance information on gender resilience and adaptive capacity for policy effectiveness in a data-scarce region particularly Africa.
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Silva, A. C. S., C. O. Galvão, and G. N. S. Silva. "Droughts and governance impacts on water scarcity: an~analysis in the Brazilian semi-arid." Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences 369 (June 11, 2015): 129–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-129-2015.
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Abstract. Extreme events are part of climate variability. Dealing with variability is still a challenge that might be increased due to climate change. However, impacts of extreme events are not only dependent on their variability, but also on management and governance. In Brazil, its semi-arid region is vulnerable to extreme events, especially droughts, for centuries. Actually, other Brazilian regions that have been mostly concerned with floods are currently also experiencing droughts. This article evaluates how a combination between climate variability and water governance might affect water scarcity and increase the impacts of extreme events on some regions. For this evaluation, Ostrom's framework for analyzing social-ecological systems (SES) was applied. Ostrom's framework is useful for understanding interactions between resource systems, governance systems and resource users. This study focuses on social-ecological systems located in a drought-prone region of Brazil. Two extreme events were selected, one in 1997–2000, when Brazil's new water policy was very young, and the other one in 2012–2015. The analysis of SES considering Ostrom's principle "Clearly defined boundaries" showed that deficiencies in water management cause the intensification of drought's impacts for the water users. The reasons are more related to water management and governance problems than to drought event magnitude or climate change. This is a problem that holdup advances in dealing with extreme events.
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Gori Maia, Alexandre, Daniele Cesano, Bruno Cesar Brito Miyamoto, Gabriela Santos Eusebio, and Patricia Andrade de Oliveira Silva. "Climate change and farm-level adaptation: the Brazilian Sertão." International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 10, no. 5 (November 19, 2018): 729–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-04-2017-0088.
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Purpose The Sertão, located in the Northeastern region of Brazil, is the most populous semi-arid region in the world. The region also faces the highest rates of poverty, food insecurity and climate risks in this country. Basic economic activities, such as extensive livestock and dairy farming, tend to be mainly affected by the increasing temperatures and recurrent droughts taking place in the past decades. This paper aims to analyze farmers’ responses to climatic variability in the Sertão. Design/methodology/approach Analyses are based on farm-level data of the Agricultural Census 2006 and on historical climate data gathered by meteorological stations. The climate impacts and the effectiveness of adaptive strategies are compared between three groups of farms, which discriminate different levels of social and environmental vulnerability. Four production functions are modeled (milk, cattle, goat and sheep) accounting for sample selectivity bias. Findings In response to increasing temperatures, farmers tend to shift their activities mainly to cattle and dairy farming. But the overall productivity tends to reduce with the recurrence of droughts. Decreasing precipitation affects mainly the production of milk of smallholder family farmers and the cattle herd of non-family farmers. Research limitations/implications Analyses do not account for short- and medium-run productive impacts of extreme droughts, which usually have devastating socioeconomic effects in the region. Originality/value Smallholder family farmers are the most vulnerable group who deserve more social and technical intervention, as they lack basic social and technological resources that can greatly improve their productivities and overcome the impacts of decreasing precipitation.
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Nelson, Laura K., Alison C. Cullen, Laura E. Koehn, Sarah Harper, Jocelyn Runebaum, Molly Bogeberg, Astrea Strawn, and Phillip S. Levin. "Understanding perceptions of climate vulnerability to inform more effective adaptation in coastal communities." PLOS Climate 2, no. 2 (February 7, 2023): e0000103. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000103.
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Coastal social-ecological systems are vulnerable to climate change with impacts distributed unequally amongst human communities. Vulnerability assessments, an increasingly popular methodology for understanding variability in vulnerability and its components, often fail to include or recognize the perceptions of individuals in the focal system. Perceptions of climate vulnerability are influenced by experiences, social networks, and cognitive biases, and often differ from vulnerability as measured by subject experts. Because perceptions influence human behavior, including if and how people take adaptive action, a failure to recognize perceptions can lead to ineffective adaptation plans and an incomplete understanding of system vulnerability. Here, as part of a novel, multi-method effort to evaluate vulnerability to climate change in the California Current social-ecological system, we survey fishers from Washington, Oregon, and California to understand their perceived vulnerability and investigate what factors drive variability in their views. We find that while there is a connection between some factors known to influence vulnerability of fishers, including vessel size and the diversity of fishing portfolios, the most significant predictor of higher perceived vulnerability was environmental worldview, specifically a belief that climate change is occurring. Motivation to adapt is also influenced by the sentiment that the impacts of climate change are more urgent and consequential than other problems; thus, we also evaluate how concern levels for environmental issues compare to other challenges that may affect fishing success and wellbeing. While just under half think that they will be personally harmed by climate change, generally the fishers were more concerned about issues like costs and regulations than they were about environmental impacts. This assessment of perceptions highlights the importance of communication and addressing cognitive barriers to adaptation in the effort to develop climate resilient fisheries and fishing communities in the United States.
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C. Jacobs, Brent, Christopher Lee, David O’Toole, and Katie Vines. "Integrated regional vulnerability assessment of government services to climate change." International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 6, no. 3 (August 12, 2014): 272–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-12-2012-0071.
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Purpose – This paper aims to describe the conduct and outcomes of an integrated assessment (IA) of the vulnerability to climate change of government service provision at regional scale in New South Wales, Australia. The assessment was co-designed with regional public sector managers to address their needs for an improved understanding of regional vulnerabilities to climate change and variability. Design/methodology/approach – The study used IA of climate change impacts through a complex adaptive systems approach incorporating social learning and stakeholder-led research processes. Workshops were conducted with stakeholders from NSW government agencies, state-owned corporations and local governments representing the tourism, water, primary industries, human settlements, emergency management, human health, infrastructure and natural landscapes sectors. Participants used regional socioeconomic profiling and climate projections to consider the impacts on and the need to adapt community service provision to future climate. Findings – Many sectors are currently experiencing difficulty coping with changes in regional demographics and structural adjustment in the economy. Climate change will result in further impacts on already vulnerable systems in the forms of resource conflicts between expanded human settlements, the infrastructure that supports them and the environment (particularly for water); increased energy costs; and declining agricultural production and food security. Originality/value – This paper describes the application of meta-analysis in climate change policy research and frames climate change as a problem of environmental pollution and an issue of development and social equity.
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Ojoyi, Mercy M., and Jean-Marc Mwenge Kahinda. "An analysis of climatic impacts and adaptation strategies in Tanzania." International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 7, no. 1 (March 16, 2015): 97–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-12-2012-0072.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate climate change perceptions and adaptation strategies in the communities of Morogoro region of Tanzania. Climate change is a vital issue of global concern. Design/methodology/approach – Rain fall data trends collected from different meteorological stations in the region were useful in assessment of climate variability and change trends from the historical perspective. In addition, quantitative interviews, surveys and focussed discussion groups were used to collect data capturing past and present trends in the catchment, and reasons provided by 199 respondents from a total of six villages. The data were collected with the aid of trained research assistants and trained graduates selected from each of the randomly select villages. Findings – Significant differences in rainfall intensities have been recorded by use of feedback results from analysis of variance tests conducted. Major indicators of climate variability and change include: increased dry spells (39.7 per cent), drying of rivers (34.7 per cent), a reduction in water flows (14.6 per cent) and poor economy of the area (11.1 per cent). Research limitations/implications – The scope of the study does not cover certain aspects such as the spatial and temporal changes in daily temperature which could have provided important and additional dimension. This study also did not take into consideration institutional arrangements required to successfully implement national adaptation programmes to climate change. Finally, it is important to remember that peoples’ perceptions determine the social mental picture of climate change. Practical implications – The study suggests the need for leverage on resource use through education and good governance strategies to be employed by resource planners, leaders and policy makers. Social implications – This study links scientific and participatory data as an approach for incorporating modern technologies and local knowledge into the design of useful practices and strategies as well as their successful implementation. Opinions from communities supported the urgent need for effective use and management of resources while laying emphasis on advancement of both indigenous and imported technologies. Originality/value – An understanding of how the community views climate change is crucial in design of practices aimed at improving their well-being. In this regard, a study investigating smallholder farmers’ views regarding major drivers of change, assessing main factors leading to changes in climate experienced and identifying potential coping strategies against climate change, was conducted in East Africa, Tanzania between 2009 and 2010. This paper identifies potential resilient practices intended to minimize destruction and maximize opportunities likely to benefit Morogoro region.
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Hlahla, Sithabile, Mulala Danny Simatele, Trevor Hill, and Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi. "Climate–Urban Nexus: A Study of Vulnerable Women in Urban Areas of KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa." Weather, Climate, and Society 14, no. 3 (July 2022): 933–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-20-0180.1.
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Abstract The changes in climatic conditions and their associated impacts are contributing to a worsening of existing gender inequalities and a heightening of women’s socioeconomic vulnerabilities in South Africa. Using data collected by research methods inspired by the tradition of participatory appraisals, we systematically discuss the impacts of climate change on marginalized women and the ways in which they are actively responding to climate challenges and building their adaptive capacity and resilience in the urban areas of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We argue that changes in climate have both direct and indirect negative impacts on women’s livelihoods and well-being. Less than one-half (37%) of the women reported implementing locally developed coping mechanisms to minimize the impacts of climate-related events, whereas 63% reported lacking any form of formal safety nets to deploy and reduce the impacts of climate-induced shocks and stresses. The lack of proactive and gender-sensitive local climate change policies and strategies creates socioeconomic and political barriers that limit the meaningful participation of women in issues that affect them and marginalize them in the climate change discourses and decision-making processes, thereby hampering their efforts to adapt and reduce existing vulnerabilities. Thus, we advocate for the creation of an enabling environment to develop and adopt progendered, cost-effective, transformative, and sustainable climate change policies and adaptation strategies that are responsive to the needs of vulnerable groups (women) of people in society. This will serve to build their adaptive capacity and resilience to climate variability and climate change–related risks and hazards.
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PERRY, R. I. "Potential impacts of climate change on marine wild capture fisheries: an update." Journal of Agricultural Science 149, S1 (December 23, 2010): 63–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021859610000961.
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SUMMARYThis paper provides a brief update on the potential impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and marine wild capture fisheries based on the scientific literature published since 2007. Current models predict shifts in fish distributions of 45–60 km per decade, with 0·80 of species moving poleward. With a high CO2 emissions scenario, little overall change in the global maximum potential fisheries catch is projected (±1%), although with high spatial variability: decreases of 40% are projected for the tropics, with increases of 30–70% for higher latitudes. Tropical nations appear to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on fisheries production. Coupled atmosphere–ocean–fish production–human society models are beginning to be developed for specific market systems. Results suggest that how society responds can have as large or larger an effect as the strength of the climate impact. Good observations of the impacts of climate change exist for high latitude, coral reef and North Atlantic systems. Management strategies are being developed to address climate change and fisheries, including risk and vulnerability assessment frameworks, pro-active planning with stakeholders regarding potential impacts and responses and examining existing regulations to identify gaps created by altered species distributions (e.g. unregulated fishing in newly ice-free areas). Overall, fisheries governance systems are needed which are flexible and can quickly adapt to changing ecological and human societal conditions. Significant knowledge gaps include a comprehensive and co-ordinated global network of observations to help distinguish climate change from variability, and increased detail in the structure and processes of models. Necessary next steps include reducing the uncertainties of climate impacts models at present, understanding the synergistic effects of multiple stressors and the inclusion of humans into coupled models and socio-economic analyses, in particular at regional and local scales. In the intermediate term, developing nations in tropical regions are likely to be most negatively impacted, whereas developed nations at higher latitudes are most likely to benefit. In the longer term, overall marine food security will depend on the impacts of climate change on marine primary production, for which the present projections are highly uncertain. Adoption of an integrated social–ecological approach that improves the adaptive capacities of ecological and human social systems will help to sustain food security from marine wild capture fisheries.
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Moosa, Christina Shaheen. "Individual Obligations, Climate Change, and Shared Responsibility." Edukacja Etyczna 17 (2020): 42–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.24917/20838972.17.3.
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Eff ectively addressing climate change has proven to be intractable, even as the impacts of increased climate variability have become more prominent. In this paper, I consider the existence of individual moral obligations regarding climate change. Through an engagement with Walter-Sinnott-Armstrong and Avram Hiller’s debate concerning the moral signifi cance of individual level GHG emis-sions, I diagnose a fi t problem that exists in the application of our ordinary ways of thinking about individual moral obligations (what I call the causal liability model) to the ethical challenges of climate change. In light of this fi t problem, I argue that the question of individual moral obligations concerning climate change should be preceded by an analysis the nature of climate change as a moral problem. I argue that, given certain features, climate change is a matter of social justice and suggest that models of shared responsibility off er a path forward for articulating individual obligations in this context.
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Nelson, Donald, and Timothy Finan. "The Emergence Of A Climate Anthropology In Northeast Brazil." Practicing Anthropology 22, no. 4 (September 1, 2000): 6–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.17730/praa.22.4.d2x8323820806314.
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Climate studies have traditionally fallen within the purview of the natural sciences where cause and predictable pattern are sought for such phenomena as climate change and climate variability. In the past, social scientists had little occasion to cross disciplinary paths with atmospheric or oceanographic scientists. Not that social science has ignored climate, for anthropology and geography claim a rich literature on the impacts of climate variability, particularly drought, on human populations (e.g., Franke and Chasin 1980; Watts 1983; Langworthy and Finan 1997). New theoretical ground, fertilized by an increasing number of empirical studies, now promises to bear the fruit we call climate anthropology. The expanding social science agenda has responded to two relatively recent advances in the natural sciences. The first has been the widening scientific consensus regarding global climate change and its anthropogenic causes. Global change cannot be adequately characterized without understanding the human-environment interactions that have contributed to the phenomenon, forcing social and natural scientists to pursue common research objectives. The second influence on climate anthropology has been the improvement in scientific understanding of oceanic/atmospheric interactions, thus allowing for more refined predictability of climatic events, particularly extreme ones. It is with this advance in climate predictability that climate anthropology is beginning to reap an exceedingly bountiful harvest in both theory and application.
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Bonzemo, Sindani Bon. "To Examine Coping Adaptive Strategies Used by Households and Make Policy Recommendations for Addressing Future Climate Change Impacts on Livelihoods in Kapsokwony Division, Mt. Elgon Sub-County, Bungoma County, Kenya." International Journal of Educational Studies 1, no. 4 (December 28, 2018): 251–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.53935/2641-533x.v1i4.94.
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Long and short term changes in climate are disproportionately affecting all parts of the world in equal measure. The most impacted by vagaries of climate change are the most vulnerable and the poor who live in the developing world. Climate change and climate variability impacts the smallholder farmers though they continue to apply traditional technologies in order to cope with climate change vulnerability. In most of the parts the world over, coping strategies are lacking especially in the African States. Trans-disciplinary research approach was used to analyze the perception of community’s’ responses to climate change and climate variability at the household level. The purpose of this study was to build new transformation knowledge by integrating the traditional and the modern adaptive technologies in order to transform lives of the indigenous communities in the study area. This paper therefore explores and highlights the existing and modern technologies which can be employed by farmers to counteract the impacts of climate change and climate variability. Primary data was collected through in-depth and informant interviews together with Focused Group Discussions (FGDs) and a structured questionnaire administered to 384 household heads in twelve sub-locations in the study area (Kapsokwony Division) formed the basis of these policy recommendations. Secondary data constituting rainfall and temperature parameters was collected from Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). The long and short term integrated adaptive strategies and policy recommendations generated and developed by all the actors including those from the academia and the traditional communities during the research are meant to build climate resilience and adaptive capacity at local and national levels. A framework that has been developed by this research will help support policy decisions in conservation agriculture and livestock rearing systems, water resource management, change in social behavior, accessing early warning information, promotion of organic farming and human health systems. If fully implemented these policy recommendations will go a long way to bring a paradigm shift that will improve livelihoods and social economic development in the region. These recommendations can be replicated in any other region of the world to bring about desired changes to a people impacted by climate change. The research study achieved capacity building, resilience, adaptive learning, change in attitude and behavior, community empowerment, application of transformation knowledge as well as climate change awareness amongst area residents. The new societal knowledge was used to elucidate long term policies and adaptive strategies to enhance climate resilience, help eliminate poverty levels, improve livelihoods and sustain social economic development. The study recommends collaboration among stakeholders and integration of various sources of knowledge in addressing climate change and climate variability among residents in Kapsokwony Sub-county. Further research should be carried out in the future to corroborate these findings.
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Goldin, J., G. Owen, A. Lebese, J. J. Botha, T. A. B. Koatla, and J. J. Anderson. "Towards An Ethnography of Climate Change Variability: Perceptions and Coping Mechanisms of Women and Men from Lambani Village, Limpopo Province." Human Geography 10, no. 2 (July 2017): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/194277861701000201.
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Attention to gender and equity has lagged behind in climate change research, programming, national policy-making and in the international negotiations. Studies on climate change and gender links with climate change have initially and by necessity been somewhat speculative in nature. While all societies are affected by climate change, the impacts also vary by location, exposure, and context specific social characteristics, identity, power relations and political economy. This draws attention to recognition of difference and sameness and the way in which common, confusing, contradictory results emerge across and within terrains. In its concern for gender-blindness, this paper specifically considers the way in which climate variability impacts on men and women in a given locale and captures the enriched narratives and voices of both rural women and men in two selected villages in Lambani, Limpopo Province, South Africa. To build women's participation in national climate change adaptation planning and to take heed of the multiple entanglements around this topic, participatory processes are required that enable diverse groups of disadvantaged women's as well as men's voices to be heard by policy-makers. We use participatory action research (PAR) to capture people's emotions and perceptions around climate change. In our context, difference is not positioned as the opposition to sameness. It is also incorporated into the self as difference within and is seen as a means of becoming. We consider climatic impacts to be moments where the human and non-human rub up against each other and where human affect becomes tangible. Here our attention to affect is twofold. Not only does it allow for a more realistic reflection of entanglements with nature but also we see affect as being more than emotion as it is a dynamic opening up to possibilities that can effectuate change.
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Akinyemi, Felicia O. "Climate Change and Variability in Semiarid Palapye, Eastern Botswana: An Assessment from Smallholder Farmers’ Perspective." Weather, Climate, and Society 9, no. 3 (April 12, 2017): 349–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-16-0040.1.
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Abstract Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and variability in semiarid contexts. Despite the limited adaptation options often used and the largely subsistence agriculture practiced, studies have shown that smallholders have accumulated local knowledge about changes in climatic conditions. Farmers with field experience and an extensive stay in three sites in Palapye, eastern Botswana, were interviewed. This study related farmers’ perceptions of changes in climate with results from analysis of climate data. Major changes perceived are a reduction in rainfall amount, rising temperature, and increasing frequency of drought conditions. Perceived reduction in rainfall amount is confirmed by analysis results as variability in rainfall amount is high throughout the series. Rainfall was poorly distributed and below average at the beginning of the cropping seasons for four years between 2013 and 2017. For 1990, 2003, and 2012, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was −1.77 (severe drought), −1.37 (moderate drought), and −2.32 (extreme drought), respectively. To minimize impacts on crop production, farmers simultaneously planted different crops based on the perception that climatic impacts on different crops vary and favored crops perceived as drought resistant. Livestock farmers supplemented with livestock feeds, reduced herd size, and moved livestock to areas with better forage. Off-farm incomes from selling products harvested from the wild are important to farmers as a coping strategy, particularly when rain fails. Some female farmers brewed and sold alcohol made locally from sorghum. That local knowledge and perceptions exist and are used by smallholder farmers to adapt to climate change and variability is suggested. Engaging with local knowledge systems is an imperative for climate change policy making.
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Petraglia, Michael D., Huw S. Groucutt, Maria Guagnin, Paul S. Breeze, and Nicole Boivin. "Human responses to climate and ecosystem change in ancient Arabia." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 15 (April 13, 2020): 8263–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920211117.
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Recent interdisciplinary archaeological and paleoenvironmental research in the Arabian peninsula is transforming our understanding of ancient human societies in their ecological contexts. Hypotheses about the cultural and demographic impacts of a series of droughts have primarily been developed from the environmental and archaeological records of southeastern Arabia. Here we examine these human–environment interactions by integrating ongoing research from northern Arabia. While droughts and extreme environmental variability in the Holocene had significant impacts on human societies, responses varied across space and time and included mobility at various scales, as well as diverse social, economic and cultural adaptations, such as the management of water resources, the introduction of pastoral lifeways, and the construction of diverse types of stone structures. The long-term story of human societies in Arabia is one of resilience in the face of climate change, yet future challenges include rising temperatures and flash flooding. The history of human responses to climatic and ecosystem changes in Arabia can provide important lessons for a planet facing catastrophic global warming and environmental change.
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Rahman, R., and H. Zafarullah. "Impact of climate change on human health: adaptation challenges in Queensland, Australia." Climate Research 80, no. 1 (April 9, 2020): 59–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01591.
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The purpose of this article was to explore the impacts of climate change on human health in Australia in general, and the state of Queensland in particular. We evaluated health-related services and adaptation challenges in the health sector and indicate possible remedies. The scientific consensus on the evidence for anthropogenic climate change is convincing. Climate change will have potentially devastating human health effects including increased morbidity, mortality and injury in the near future. Its impacts will be unevenly distributed among geographical regions and population groups. The elderly, children and people who are chronically ill and economically disadvantaged will be more vulnerable than others. Adaptation is a valuable tool for minimizing the effects of climate change on human health, but the mechanisms involve various societal, cultural, economic, political, environmental, information and technological challenges that need to be addressed rigorously and cautiously. Developing and designing appropriate healthcare systems to meet the challenges involved with adaptation is equally important in reducing the health effects of climate variability. There is an increased need for information about climatic impacts on human health and a need to increase institutional capacity, social and human capital, leadership, communication and partnerships as well as promoting stakeholders’ engagement in the adaptation processes in order to ensure success.
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Bremer, Scott, Anne Blanchard, Nabir Mamnun, Mathew Stiller-Reeve, Md Mahfujul Haque, and Endre Tvinnereim. "Narrative as a Method for Eliciting Tacit Knowledge of Climate Variability in Bangladesh." Weather, Climate, and Society 9, no. 4 (August 17, 2017): 669–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-17-0007.1.
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Abstract Climate change adaptation has increasingly come to be conceptualized as a place-based social process, in large part mediated by the local cultural context. The specificity of adaptation has called for partnerships between scientific and local communities to “co-produce” knowledge of climate variability (weather) and longer-term climate change. However, this raises numerous methodological challenges, including how to elicit the representations, knowledge, and cultural meanings of weather that are tacit to people in a community, and represent them in an explicit form that can be shared in a process of “co-production”. Such work demands careful attention to the way tightly intertwined knowledge systems continuously rebuild representations of climate in a place, and how these knowledge systems are also intertwined with values and the exercise of power. This paper takes up this challenge and explores the potential offered by theories and methods of narrative. Looking at a research project “co-producing” knowledge of weather and impacts in northeast Bangladesh, this paper describes the experience of running narrative interviews with communities there, and how these narratives were analyzed along four themes to contribute to the co-production process. These themes included 1) the weather phenomena and impacts important to local communities, 2) how weather provides meaning and identity in that place, 3) how community actors produce and share weather knowledge, and 4) the climate-related narratives pervading the community. In sharing this experience, this paper seeks to fulfil a demand for more detailed practical accounts of narrative methods in climate adaptation research, particularly for knowledge co-production.
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Poudel, Jiban Mani. "Pond Becomes a Lake: Challenges for Herders in the Himalayas." Practicing Anthropology 42, no. 2 (March 1, 2020): 30–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.17730/0888-4552.42.2.30.
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Abstract Climate change is disturbing the existing functional relations between socio-ecological systems in the Himalayan region of Nepal. In this paper, I look at the disturbance posed by climate change to the social and ecological dimensions, referencing the Himalayan herders as eye-witnesses. I focus on two thematic areas, that is, the challenges faced by the mountain herders in the context of climate change and their coping strategies. This paper is a product of nine months of ethnographic study between the years 2012 and 2018 conducted at the Nhāson valley. The herders' stories are “real stories” with insights into the climate variability and fluctuation, which is critically valuable to understand the environmental phenomena at a time when scientific evidence is not enough. In this context, an ethnographic study can contribute in documenting the place-specific and culture-specific stories as the powerful evidence to climate change and how it impacts the grounded social and ecological systems.
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Leal Filho, Walter, Abul Al-Amin, Gustavo Nagy, Ulisses Azeiteiro, Laura Wiesböck, Desalegn Ayal, Edward Morgan, et al. "A Comparative Analysis of Climate-Risk and Extreme Event-Related Impacts on Well-Being and Health: Policy Implications." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 15, no. 2 (February 13, 2018): 331. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15020331.
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There are various climate risks that are caused or influenced by climate change. They are known to have a wide range of physical, economic, environmental and social impacts. Apart from damages to the physical environment, many climate risks (climate variability, extreme events and climate-related hazards) are associated with a variety of impacts on human well-being, health, and life-supporting systems. These vary from boosting the proliferation of vectors of diseases (e.g., mosquitos), to mental problems triggered by damage to properties and infrastructure. There is a great variety of literature about the strong links between climate change and health, while there is relatively less literature that specifically examines the health impacts of climate risks and extreme events. This paper is an attempt to address this knowledge gap, by compiling eight examples from a set of industrialised and developing countries, where such interactions are described. The policy implications of these phenomena and the lessons learned from the examples provided are summarised. Some suggestions as to how to avert the potential and real health impacts of climate risks are made, hence assisting efforts to adapt to a problem whose impacts affect millions of people around the world. All the examples studied show some degree of vulnerability to climate risks regardless of their socioeconomic status and need to increase resilience against extreme events.
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Vasconcelos, Mônica Alves de, Henrique dos Santos Pereira, Myriam Lopes, and David Franklin da Silva Guimarães. "Impacts of Climate Change on the Lives of Riverine Farmers on the Lower Rio Negro, Amazon." Atmosphere 13, no. 11 (November 15, 2022): 1906. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111906.
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Global climate change, although gradual, is already clearly perceptible for the whole society; however, its impacts affect individuals and regions in diverse ways. Riverine communities in the Brazilian Amazon are highly vulnerable to this change, as seasonal hydroclimatic cycles govern their daily lives, integrate their way of life with the environment, and determine the organization of social and agricultural calendars. This work aimed to understand the impacts caused by climate change on the lives of riverine family farmers on the lower Rio Negro. Initially, through the analysis of changes in hydroclimatic trends and, later, through the description of perception, we tried to present the impacts on the ways of life to then know the climate adaptation strategies. The research was carried out in the state of Amazonas, in the riverine communities Tiririca, Marajá, Santo Antônio, and Terra Preta, located in the Rio Negro Sustainable Development Reserve, with 43 subjects through semi-structured and focus group interviews. Historical trends in the seasonality of the hydrological regime, precipitation, and temperature were analyzed, while qualitative data from environmental perception were analyzed using the technique of content analysis. Physical records of local climate variability and environmental perception are, in most cases, compatible and indicate that hydroclimatic cycles are changing. For the riverine people, the rains have been decreasing and there is unanimity in the perception that the increase in temperature is a reality that has affected their way of life at work, education, health, and food. Although communities have been developing spontaneous adaptive strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change, effective public policies need to reinforce these local responses to climate variability, contributing to the quality of life of populations.
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Ayu Puspito Sari, Deffi, Faroby Falatehan, Diki Surya Irawan, Gede Sedana, and Robbi Rahim. "Mitigation and Adaptation Analysis of the Climate Change Impact Using Sustainable Livelihood Model." International Journal of Engineering & Technology 7, no. 2.5 (March 10, 2018): 108. http://dx.doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i2.5.13963.
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This study aims to identify and analyze the farmers’ perception of the climate variability and the impacts of the climate variability, identify and analyze the vulnerability and the income of the farmers due to the climate variability, identify and analyze the farmer strategy in anticipating and adapting the climate variability and recommending the adaptation mechanism based on engineering, institutional, technological, social, economic, and cultural organizations to the farmer in responding to the climate variability. Most of the farmers know and understand the climate change information from the television. Farmers mostly feel this climate change through the increase in temperature and the number of dry days. The impact of the climate change affects the livelihood of the farmers, not a few farmers suffered the losses due to the decreased in productivity. To reduce the decrease in income, the farmers increase the use of input, thus affecting the income of the farmers. The results of a comparison of the farmers between 2009 and 2015, there is an increase in productivity and revenue, but this increase is lower than the increased costs incurred by the farmers. This resulted in lower revenues of the farmers in 2015 than in 2009. There are 3 kinds of the strategies which is undertaken by the farmers: economic, ecological and social adaptation. For the economic adaptation, the expectations of the farmers to the capital assets are higher than the actual condition. Ideally, the highest ideal expected by the farmers is physical capital, while the lowest is social capital. Meanwhile, for the ecological adaptation, the community seeks to improve the irrigation channel, replace commodities and utilize the appropriate technology. As for the social adaptation, farmers are expecting the help from the government. The policy implications from this research are: 1) the farmer in Jatiluwih are mostly aware of climate change, some strategies have been implemented by the farmers to maintain their income that affected by the climate change such as to work in the city or become a tour guide in their area. Based on the analysis of the sustainable livelihood, the farmers' expectation of physical capital such as electricity, water, irrigation, and roads are relatively high compared to the other capital. Because of the cost of supply is high, the provision of the physical capital is not easy, the government intervention is needed. Therefore, the farmers are expecting the government to be able to improve the condition of these facilities, especially for the irrigation. Irrigation plays an important role in farming. 2) The social capital of the farmers is high, the farmers have a good relationship with the government, indigenous people, and farmer groups. Therefore, in addition to providing the physical assistance, the government can also conduct the guidance and socialization on reducing the impact of the climate change through farmer or cultural group.
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Sutherst, Robert W. "Global Change and Human Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases." Clinical Microbiology Reviews 17, no. 1 (January 2004): 136–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/cmr.17.1.136-173.2004.
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SUMMARY Global change includes climate change and climate variability, land use, water storage and irrigation, human population growth and urbanization, trade and travel, and chemical pollution. Impacts on vector-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, infections by other arboviruses, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and leishmaniasis are reviewed. While climate change is global in nature and poses unknown future risks to humans and natural ecosystems, other local changes are occurring more rapidly on a global scale and are having significant effects on vector-borne diseases. History is invaluable as a pointer to future risks, but direct extrapolation is no longer possible because the climate is changing. Researchers are therefore embracing computer simulation models and global change scenarios to explore the risks. Credible ranking of the extent to which different vector-borne diseases will be affected awaits a rigorous analysis. Adaptation to the changes is threatened by the ongoing loss of drugs and pesticides due to the selection of resistant strains of pathogens and vectors. The vulnerability of communities to the changes in impacts depends on their adaptive capacity, which requires both appropriate technology and responsive public health systems. The availability of resources in turn depends on social stability, economic wealth, and priority allocation of resources to public health.
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Jin, Junliang, Guoqing Wang, Jianyun Zhang, Qinli Yang, Cuishan Liu, Yanli Liu, Zhenxin Bao, and Ruimin He. "Impacts of climate change on hydrology in the Yellow River source region, China." Journal of Water and Climate Change 11, no. 3 (September 3, 2018): 916–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.085.
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Abstract Variations of precipitation, temperature, and runoff in the Yellow River source region were analyzed with the Mann–Kendall and Spearman rank correlation tests over the past 60 years. Based on the seven climate scenarios from CMIP5 climate models under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, responses of hydrological process to climate change were simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Variation analysis results indicated that recorded temperature presented significant increasing trend. Daily minimum temperature presented higher increasing trend than daily maximum temperature. Annual gross precipitation presented minor increasing and annual runoff presented minor decreasing. The VIC model performed well on simulating monthly discharge at Tangnaihai station, with NSE of 0.91 and 0.93 in calibration and validation periods, respectively. The projected annual mean temperature would rise (with 25th and 75th percentiles) 1.07–1.32 °C, 1.76–2.33 °C, 3.45–4.29 °C, annual precipitation is expected to increase 3.43%–11.77%, 8.05%–17.27%, 12.84%–27.89%, and runoff would moderately increase with high variability of 0.82%–14.26%, −3.41%–19.14%, 1.43%–38.26% relative to the baseline of 1961–1990 under each RCP in the 2080s, respectively. The inhomogeneity of runoff may increase in the future. Many more droughts and floods under climate change may threaten social development in this region in the future.
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K. BOOMIRAJ, SUHAS P. WANI, P. K. AGGARWAL, and K. PALANISAMI. "Climate change adaptation strategies for agro-ecosystem – a review." Journal of Agrometeorology 12, no. 2 (December 1, 2010): 145–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.54386/jam.v12i2.1297.
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Agriculture the major economic and social activity in the globe. It is understood that agriculture is highly sensitive to climatic variability and likely to be affected most to predicted climate change. The fourth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reconfirmed that the phenomenon of existence of climate change in recent decades is due to anthropogenic activities. It is also revealed the availability of wide array of adaptation options for agro-ecosystem to cope up with the impact of climate change. However, it is important to design more extensive adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of agriculture and rural poor to impacts of climate change. Climate change impacts and responses are presently observed as autonomous adaptation in the physical and ecological systems as well as in human adjustments to resource availability and risks at different spatial and trophic levels. But these strategies are not enough to reduce the current anthropogenic driven climate change, so there is a need to adopt the planned adaptation. This paper reviews the findings based on the series of studies carried across the globe on the potential adaptation strategies to alleviate the impact of climate change by improving the resilience of the agro-ecosystems. Adaptation strategies have to be in place to reduce vulnerability to climate change through developing consensus between industrialized countries and developing countries at global scale, whereas new public policies in place at national regional and local level is prudent to support adaptation research, insurances, incentives to farmers to adapt new technologies.
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Bonatti, Michelle, Sandro L. Schlindwein, Ana Carolina F. De Vasconcelos, Stefan Sieber, Luiz Renato D. Agostini, Marcos A. Lana, Alfredo C. Fantini, Larissa H. I. Homem, and Adriano Canci. "Social Organization and Agricultural Strategies to Face Climate Variability: A Case Study in Guaraciaba, Southern Brazil." Sustainable Agriculture Research 2, no. 3 (May 29, 2013): 118. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/sar.v2n3p118.
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<p>Climate scenarios and projections have suggested that the impacts of climate change on land use will be noticed particularly by the communities that depend on natural resources for their subsistence. The climate vulnerability of poor communities varies greatly, but in general, climate change combines with other threats and becomes superimposed on existing vulnerabilities. This paper presents a case study that strives to understand the social organization in a vulnerable community of Guaraciaba, in southern Brazil, to investigate aspects of an adaptation strategy to climate change based on the local development and conservation of landraces of a set of crop species. Landraces are varieties better adapted to adversities, especially drought, which is an important threat to the famers in the region. Every farmer receives annually a “kit of biodiversity”, a set of local varieties with the amount of seeds necessary to be cultivated in order to produce enough food for the family. The study had a qualitative approach and was carried out through semi-structured interviews with technicians and 30% of the rural families who farm with landraces. The study concludes that the factors that make this adaptation strategy sustainable are: the ability to undertake actions strongly based on local socio-cultural needs (a social support network), biodiversity management practices designed to reduce external economic dependence, self management of genetic resources, the establishment of priorities based on locally available resources, a work plan for community participation (field days, a community based festival), the establishment of the roles of community in the planning and implementation of programs for biodiversity management.</p>
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Ofgeha, Gemechu Y., and Muluneh W. Abshire. "Characterizing Small-scale Farmers Differential Vulnerability to Global Environmental Change: Case Studies in Anger Watershed, Southwestern Ethiopia." Journal of Sustainable Rural Development 4, no. 2 (November 30, 2020): 105–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.32598/jsrd.4.2.1.
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Purpose: Global environmental change of climate variability and land use dynamics are emerging livelihood challenges facing local poor. Although, the synergetic impacts of these processes have been cognate in Ethiopia, vulnerability researches were fixed to climate variability, inadequate on conceptual and methodological considerations of non-climate stressors. To this attention, we assessed small-scale farmers’ vulnerability situations in Anger watershed of southwestern Ethiopia. Methods: The case study design guided by mixed methods approach was used. Multistage sampling technique was used for the study. The data collected from 335 household heads were analyzed by multivariate analysis, measures of differences, and substantiated by qualitative enquiry based on focus group discussions and observations. Result: Household’s vulnerability magnitude ranges from high to moderate, while in aggregate, kolla agroecology was more vulnerable than highland. The effects of social adaptability and sensitivity to land resources were significantly contributed for the vulnerability differences. Although, climate variability was notable, structural land use dynamics was unequivocal stressor deepened the household’s vulnerability in kolla. Conclusions: Vulnerability is the result of interactive and interconnected processes of climate, non-climate stressors, and households’ internal capacity in the study area. Thus, attributing local vulnerability to only climate variability, neglecting local non-climatic disturbances could mislead development planning. Hence, future studies should consider such processes simultaneously to provide comprehensive evidences on vulnerability situations. The national adaptations program needs to integrate climate change with the emerging other global changes in planning rural resilience. Policy fortifying agricultural investments should synchronize win-win strategy for relationships between investors and local community.
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Sok, Serey, Nyda Chhinh, Sanara Hor, and Pheakdey Nguonphan. "Climate Change Impacts on Rice Cultivation: A Comparative Study of the Tonle Sap and Mekong River." Sustainability 13, no. 16 (August 11, 2021): 8979. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13168979.
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Climate change is unequivocal. Farmers are increasingly vulnerable to floods and drought. In this article, the negative impact of climate hazards on rice cultivation in the Tonle Sap and Mekong River influenced by climatic variability between 1994 and 2018 are analyzed. A cohort of 536 households from four Cambodian districts participated in household surveys designed to consider how various vulnerability factors interacted across this time series. It was found that: (i) The major climate hazards affecting rice production between 1994 and 2018 were frequent and extreme flood and drought events caused by rainfall variability; (ii) In 2018, extreme flood and drought occurred in the same rice cultivation cycle. The impact caused by each hazard across each region were similar; (iii) An empirical model was used to demonstrate that drought events tend to limit access to irrigation, impact rice production, and result in an increased prevalence of water-borne diseases. Flood events cause reduced rice production, damage to housing, and impede children from accessing education. The impact of drought events on rice production was found to be more severe than flood events; however, each climatic hazard caused physical, economic, social, and environmental vulnerabilities. It is recommended that sufficient human and financial resources are distributed to local authorities to implement adaptation measures that prepare rice farmers for flood and drought events and promote equitable access to water resources.
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Peppler, Randy A. "“It’s Not Balancing out Like It Should Be”: Perceptions of Local Climate Variability in Native Oklahoma." Weather, Climate, and Society 9, no. 2 (April 1, 2017): 317–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-16-0081.1.
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Abstract Fieldwork was conducted in 2009–11 with Native American agriculturalists and traditionalists in southwestern Oklahoma on the form and use of their weather and climate knowledge: how it is constituted, how it is used in agricultural decision-making, and the extent to which their own weather knowledge is valued in light of other forms of weather information available. Conversations rekindled memories of knowledge imparted and stories told by previous generations and illuminated observational signs some still rely upon. Conversations also revealed that while the agriculturalists and traditionalists are acculturated into contemporary society, they still hold tightly to culturally important ways of knowing about and being in the world and are keen observers of their local environments. Given the contemporary relevance of climate change and its impacts on Indigenous peoples, this paper focuses on their observations and thoughts about climate variability: Have you noticed changes? What impacts do these changes have on you, including both on your agricultural activities and your trusted observational signs? What do you think about the public discourse on climate change? According to most, a changing climate is a real phenomenon perceived at the local scale and is impacting their ability to observe relied-upon indicators, and has caused them to make changes in their agricultural endeavors. The knowledge professed by those in this study can be placed within the larger context of Indigenous environmental knowledge formation, as it follows closely with that discovered through archival research and that described by other inquiries from around the world.
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Gitima, Ginjo, Abiyot Legesse, and Dereje Biru. "Assessing The Impacts of Climate Variability on Rural Households in Agricultural Land Through The Application of Livelihood Vulnerability Index." Geosfera Indonesia 6, no. 1 (April 30, 2021): 96. http://dx.doi.org/10.19184/geosi.v6i1.20718.
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Climate variability adversely affects rural households in Ethiopia as they depend on rain-fed agriculture, which is highly vulnerable to climate fluctuations and severe events such as drought and pests. In view of this, we have assessed the impacts of climate variability on rural household’s livelihoods in agricultural land in Tarchazuria district of Dawuro Zone. A total of 270 samples of household heads were selected using a multistage sampling technique with sample size allocation procedures of the simple random sampling method. Simple linear regression, the standard precipitation index, the coefficient of variance, and descriptive statistics were used to analyze climatic data such as rainfall and temperature. Two livelihood vulnerability analysis approaches, such as composite index and Livelihood Vulnerability Index-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (LVI-IPCC) approaches, were used to analyze indices for socioeconomic and biophysical indicators. The study revealed that the variability patterns of rainfall and increasing temperatures had been detrimental effects on rural households' livelihoods. The result showed households of overall standardized, average scores of Wara Gesa (0.60) had high livelihood vulnerability with dominant major components of natural, physical, social capital, and livelihood strategies to climate-induced natural hazards than Mela Gelda (0.56). The LVI-IPCC analysis results also revealed that the rural households in Mela Gelda were more exposed to climate variability than Wara Gesa and slightly sensitive to climate variability, considering the health and knowledge and skills, natural capitals, and financial capitals of the households. Therefore, interventions including road infrastructure construction, integrated with watershed management, early warning information system, providing training, livelihood diversification, and SWC measures' practices should be a better response to climate variability-induced natural hazards.
Keywords: Households; Livelihood Vulnerability Index; climate variability; Tarchazuria District
Copyright (c) 2021 Geosfera Indonesia and Department of Geography Education, University of Jember
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share A like 4.0 International License
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Siegel, Katherine J., Reniel B. Cabral, Jennifer McHenry, Elena Ojea, Brandon Owashi, and Sarah E. Lester. "Sovereign states in the Caribbean have lower social-ecological vulnerability to coral bleaching than overseas territories." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 286, no. 1897 (February 20, 2019): 20182365. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2365.
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Coral reef social-ecological systems worldwide face major impacts from climate change, and spatial variation in vulnerability is driven by differential exposure to climatic threats, ecological and socio-economic sensitivity to those threats, ecological recovery potential, and socio-economic adaptive capacity. We assess variation in social-ecological vulnerability to climate change-induced coral bleaching, specifically for reef-based fisheries and tourism, of islands throughout the insular Caribbean, thus providing the first region-wide quantitative analysis of island-scale social-ecological vulnerability to coral bleaching. We show that different components of vulnerability have distinct spatial patterns and that variability in overall vulnerability is driven more by socio-economic than ecological components. Importantly, we find that sovereign islands are less vulnerable on average than overseas territories and that the presence of fisheries management regulations is a significant predictor of adaptive capacity and socio-economic sensitivity, with important implications for island-level governance and policies to reduce climate vulnerability.
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Omolo, Nancy, Paramu Mafongoya, and Oscar Ngesa. "Gender and Resilience to Climate Variability in Pastoralists Livelihoods System: Two Case Studies in Kenya." Journal of Sustainable Development 10, no. 2 (March 30, 2017): 218. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/jsd.v10n2p218.
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Recurrent droughts due to climate change has led to vulnerability of the pastoralist communities, leading to loss of assets and food insecurity. Climate change will have different impacts on women and men’s livelihoods. Building resilience at individual, household and community level will largely depend on the suitability of interventions to the local context, particularly in relation to the social dynamics and power relations that create differences in vulnerability. Most of the research have focused on national and regional studies. The impact of climate change will not be uniformly distributed in countries within Africa or within the same country. This specific research focuses on two diverse ecological zones at the local level in the same County of Turkana in north western Kenya: agro-pastoral zone and primary pastoral zone. This paper aims to evaluate women and men’s adaptive capacity to climate variability in Turkana, north-western Kenya. It is evident that increasing resilience can be realised by reducing vulnerabilities and increasing adaptive capacity. The results revealed that agro-pastoralists are more resilient to climate change than primary pastoralists. Male headed household are more resilient than female headed households. Access to basic services is contributing more in the resilience score than assets, gender of house hold head and age. Generally, few families in this region have very high resilience score.
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Sander, J., J. F. Eichner, E. Faust, and M. Steuer. "Rising Variability in Thunderstorm-Related U.S. Losses as a Reflection of Changes in Large-Scale Thunderstorm Forcing*." Weather, Climate, and Society 5, no. 4 (October 1, 2013): 317–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-12-00023.1.
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Abstract Thunderstorm-related normalized economic and insured losses in the United States east of the Rockies from the period 1970–2009 (March–September) exhibit higher peaks and greater variability in the last two decades than in the preceding two decades. To remove the bias from increasingly detected losses over time due to newly built-up locations, only large events that incurred normalized losses of at least $250 million (U.S. dollars) economically ($150 million insured) were selected. These are multistate damage events that are unlikely to have been missed at any time within the analysis period, thus providing for homogeneity of the events covered. Those losses, if aggregated, account for the major proportion (~80%) of all thunderstorm-related losses in the period 1970–2009. This study demonstrates that the pattern of variability in the time series of these losses can be seen as a reflection (“fingerprint”) of the temporal variability in severe thunderstorm forcing. The meteorological information on forcing is inferred from NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data. No final attribution of the climatic variability identified in thunderstorm forcing and losses—either to natural climate variability or to anthropogenic climate change—can be conclusively arrived at in this study because of the chosen methodology. Nevertheless, the expected impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the forcing of convective storms appear consistent with these findings.
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Deng, Wenjia, Jinxi Song, Hua Bai, Yi He, Miao Yu, Huiyuan Wang, and Dandong Cheng. "Analyzing the Impacts of Climate Variability and Land Surface Changes on the Annual Water–Energy Balance in the Weihe River Basin of China." Water 10, no. 12 (December 6, 2018): 1792. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w10121792.
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The serious soil erosion problems and decreased runoff of the Loess Plateau may aggravate the shortage of its local water resources. Understanding the spatiotemporal influences on runoff changes is important for water resource management. Here, we study this in the largest tributary of the Yellow River, the Weihe River Basin. Data from four hydrological stations (Lin Jia Cun (LJC), Xian Yang (XY), Lin Tong (LT), and Hua Xian (HX)) and 10 meteorological stations from 1961–2014 were used to analyze changes in annual runoff. The Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt abrupt change point test diagnosed variations in runoff in the Weihe River basin; the time periods before and after abrupt change points are the base period (period I) and change period (period II), respectively. Within the Budyko framework, the catchment properties (ω in Fu’s equation) represent land surface changes; climate variability comprises precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (ET0). All the stations showed a reduction in annual runoff during the recording period, of which 22.66% to 50.42% was accounted for by land surface change and 1.97% to 53.32% by climate variability. In the Weihe River basin, land surface changes drive runoff variation in LT and climate variability drives it in LJC, XY, and HX. The contribution of land surface changes to runoff reduction in period I was less than that in period II, indicating that changes in human activity further decreased runoff. Therefore, this study offers a scientific basis for understanding runoff trends and driving forces, providing an important reference for social development, ecological construction, and water resource management.
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Sasgen, Ingo, Annette Salles, Martin Wegmann, Bert Wouters, Xavier Fettweis, Brice P. Y. Noël, and Christoph Beck. "Arctic glaciers record wavier circumpolar winds." Nature Climate Change 12, no. 3 (February 10, 2022): 249–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01275-4.
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AbstractGlaciers in the Arctic respond sensitively to climate change, recording the polar amplification of global warming with increasing mass loss. Here, we use glacier mass balances in Svalbard and northern Arctic Canada to categorize tropospheric variability and the associated summer circulation over the Arctic. We establish a link between annual glacier mass balances and their respective atmospheric forcings since 1950 using GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite data (2002–2021), as well as regional climate models and reanalysis data (1950–2019). We find that asynchronous behaviour of mass balance between the regions has become very likely since the early 2000s, exceeding the range of previous decadal variability. Related tropospheric circulation exhibits more meridional patterns, a greater influence of meridional heat advection and a wavier summer circulation. The traceable impact on glacier mass balances emphasizes the importance of dynamic next to thermodynamic climate changes for the future of glacier mass loss, Arctic ecology and societal impacts.
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González Ornelas, Itzel, and Gabriela Muñoz Meléndez. "Adaptive Capacity to Climate Variability in Three Rural Communities atSierra de San Pedro Martir." Frontera norte 33 (January 1, 2021): 1–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.33679/rfn.v1i1.2114.
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Climate change adaptation has multiple definitions, to have a reference conceptual framework we understand it as the reduction of vulnerability to climate variability. This paper’s objective was to assess the adaptive capacity and response to climate variability in three rural communities at Sierra de San Pedro Martir National Park. We applied discourse analysis and non-participatory observation. As for data collecting, we carried out structured interviews during community workshops and semi-structured ones to external stakeholders. Results show that communities recognized droughts as the most important climate phenomenon, given that it impacts their economic activities and daily life alike. But inhabitants did not associate water availability to environmental services provided by the National Park. Our main contribution was modifying the methodological tool. Conclusions indicate that adaptive responses are associated with social characteristics of the local population and their strategies diversity. The public institutions’ role in rural adaptation was not addressed in-depth.
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Darabant, András, Birgit Habermann, Kibruyesfa Sisay, Christopher Thurnher, Yonas Worku, Selamawit Damtew, Mara Lindtner, Leisa Burrell, and Abrham Abiyu. "Farmers’ perceptions and matching climate records jointly explain adaptation responses in four communities around Lake Tana, Ethiopia." Climatic Change 163, no. 1 (October 15, 2020): 481–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02889-x.
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AbstractFarmers’ climate perceptions are responsible for shaping their adaptive responses and are thus essential to consider for the design of strategies to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience. In this study, we collected social data in four communities in the central Ethiopian Highlands on farmers’ climate perceptions and adaptations using group discussions and PRA tools. We related these to climate data spanning 30 years (1981 to 2010), consisting of daily minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation, modelled for the four communities using global databases and regional meteorological data. We found that farmers’ climate perceptions showed considerable spatial and gender differences. Perceptions matched well with records describing climate variability, particularly in terms of the shortening and the increased variability of the rainy season, as well as the occurrence of extreme drought in recent years. Climate change, described by long-term average increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation, was perceived, but with subordinate priority. Perceived climate impacts included reduced crop yield, increased occurrence of pests and diseases and increased crop damage by extreme events and poverty. Adaptations were mainly land based and included agronomic measures, land management and ecosystem restoration. Furthermore, important gender differences in adaptation could be traced back to typical gender roles. Results highlight the risk of broadcast adaptation programs, such as the government-propagated combination of mineral fertilizers and early maturing crop varieties. Most importantly, they point to the need to consider climate variability, site- and gender-specific perceptions and priorities.
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Camenisch, Chantal, Kathrin M. Keller, Melanie Salvisberg, Benjamin Amann, Martin Bauch, Sandro Blumer, Rudolf Brázdil, et al. "The 1430s: a cold period of extraordinary internal climate variability during the early Spörer Minimum with social and economic impacts in north-western and central Europe." Climate of the Past 12, no. 11 (December 1, 2016): 2107–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2107-2016.
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Abstract. Changes in climate affected human societies throughout the last millennium. While European cold periods in the 17th and 18th century have been assessed in detail, earlier cold periods received much less attention due to sparse information available. New evidence from proxy archives, historical documentary sources and climate model simulations permit us to provide an interdisciplinary, systematic assessment of an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century. Our assessment includes the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping extreme climatic conditions and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in north-western and central Europe.Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and anthropogenic archives indicate that the 1430s were the coldest decade in north-western and central Europe in the 15th century. This decade is characterised by cold winters and average to warm summers resulting in a strong seasonal cycle in temperature. Results from comprehensive climate models indicate consistently that these conditions occurred by chance due to the partly chaotic internal variability within the climate system. External forcing like volcanic eruptions tends to reduce simulated temperature seasonality and cannot explain the reconstructions. The strong seasonal cycle in temperature reduced food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis and a famine in parts of Europe. Societies were not prepared to cope with failing markets and interrupted trade routes. In response to the crisis, authorities implemented numerous measures of supply policy and adaptation such as the installation of grain storage capacities to be prepared for future food production shortfalls.
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Bharwani, Sukaina, Mike Bithell, Thomas E. Downing, Mark New, Richard Washington, and Gina Ziervogel. "Multi-agent modelling of climate outlooks and food security on a community garden scheme in Limpopo, South Africa." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 360, no. 1463 (October 24, 2005): 2183–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1742.
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Seasonal climate outlooks provide one tool to help decision-makers allocate resources in anticipation of poor, fair or good seasons. The aim of the ‘Climate Outlooks and Agent-Based Simulation of Adaptation in South Africa’ project has been to investigate whether individuals, who adapt gradually to annual climate variability, are better equipped to respond to longer-term climate variability and change in a sustainable manner. Seasonal climate outlooks provide information on expected annual rainfall and thus can be used to adjust seasonal agricultural strategies to respond to expected climate conditions. A case study of smallholder farmers in a village in Vhembe district, Limpopo Province, South Africa has been used to examine how such climate outlooks might influence agricultural strategies and how this climate information can be improved to be more useful to farmers. Empirical field data has been collected using surveys, participatory approaches and computer-based knowledge elicitation tools to investigate the drivers of decision-making with a focus on the role of climate, market and livelihood needs. This data is used in an agent-based social simulation which incorporates household agents with varying adaptation options which result in differing impacts on crop yields and thus food security, as a result of using or ignoring the seasonal outlook. Key variables are the skill of the forecast, the social communication of the forecast and the range of available household and community-based risk coping strategies. This research provides a novel approach for exploring adaptation within the context of climate change.
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Lopes, Myriam, Ana Cristina Monteiro, Isabel Ribeiro, Elisa Sá, Helena Martins, Miguel Coutinho, and Carlos Borrego. "Alterações Climáticas e Gestão da Água em Portugal (Climate Change and Water Management in Portugal)." Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física 5, no. 6 (January 21, 2013): 1333. http://dx.doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v5i6.232926.
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As alterações climáticas (AC) constituem actualmente uma das maiores ameaças ambientais globais, com repercussões sociais e económicas para todo o planeta e humanidade. Os recursos hídricos, nomeadamente nas componentes de gestão da procura, do fornecimento e riscos infra-estruturais, são uma das áreas mais vulneráveis às AC. Este trabalho pretende ser um contributo para a gestão dos recursos hídricos em Portugal integrando a gestão do risco associado aos impactes das AC. Neste sentido, o trabalho inclui: i) a análise da variabilidade climática e da detecção das AC em Portugal; ii) a identificação do impacte de futuros cenários climáticos nos recursos hídricos e a identificação das maiores ameaças e fatores de risco; iii) a análise das estratégias de adaptação e sistemas de compensação existentes; iv) e a identificação de medidas adicionais a implementar em Portugal de modo a reduzir os riscos das AC na gestão da água. Palavras-chave: Alterações Climáticas, Recursos Hídricos, Risco, Gestão da água, Adaptação Climate Change and Water Management in Portugal ABSTRACT Presently climate change (CC) is one of the greatest global environmental threats, with social and economic repercussions for the entire planet and humanity. Due to their vulnerability to CC, water resources are of major concern, particularly in the components of demand management, supply and infrastructure risks. This work intends to be a contribution for water resource management in Portugal, integrating risk management and climate change impacts. In this sense, this work includes: i) an analysis of climatic variability and climate change in Portugal; ii) an identification of the impacts of climate change scenarios in water resources and an identification of the major pressures and risk factors; iii) an analysis of the adaptation strategies and existing compensation systems; iv) and an identification of the additional measures to be implemented in Portugal, in order to reduce climate change impacts in water resources. Keywords: Climate change, water resources, risk, water management, adaptation
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Poyar, Kyle Andrew, and Nancy Beller-Simms. "Early Responses to Climate Change: An Analysis of Seven U.S. State and Local Climate Adaptation Planning Initiatives." Weather, Climate, and Society 2, no. 3 (July 1, 2010): 237–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010wcas1047.1.
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Abstract State and local governments in the United States manage a wide array of natural and human resources that are particularly sensitive to climate variability and change. Recent revelations of the extent of the current and potential climate impact in this realm such as with the quality of water, the structure of the coasts, and the potential and witnessed impact on the built infrastructure give these political authorities impetus to minimize their vulnerability and plan for the future. In fact, a growing number of subnational government bodies in the United States have initiated climate adaptation planning efforts; these initiatives emphasize an array of climate impacts, but at different scales, scopes, and levels of sophistication. Meanwhile, the current body of climate adaptation literature has not taken a comprehensive look at these plans nor have they questioned what prompts local adaptation planning, at what scope and scale action is being taken, or what prioritizes certain policy responses over others. This paper presents a case-based analysis of seven urban climate adaptation planning initiatives, drawing from a review of publicly available planning documents and interviews with stakeholders directly involved in the planning process to provide a preliminary understanding of these issues. The paper also offers insight into the state of implementation of adaptation strategies, highlighting the role of low upfront costs and cobenefits with issues already on the local agenda in prompting anticipatory adaptation.
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Petrescu-Mag, Ruxandra Malina, Philippe Burny, Ioan Banatean-Dunea, and Dacinia Crina Petrescu. "How Climate Change Science Is Reflected in People’s Minds. A Cross-Country Study on People’s Perceptions of Climate Change." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 7 (April 2, 2022): 4280. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19074280.
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The way people perceive climate change scientific evidence becomes relevant in motivating or demotivating their climate actions. Climate change is one of the most publicized topics globally, and media has become an important “validator” of science. Therefore, science has become more exposed to criticism. Even when most scientists, decision makers, and laypeople agree on the robust evidence of climate science, there is still room for disagreement. The main aim of this paper is to reveal how climate change knowledge generated by science is perceived by the laypeople and to observe a possible gap between them. The study answered two questions “What are the main contrasting climate change topics in the scientific literature?” and “What are Romanian and Belgian participants’ perceptions of these topics?”. A qualitative approach was chosen for data analysis, using Quirkos software. The present cross-country study showed commonalities and differences of views between the two groups of participants regarding six climate change topics. Divergent perceptions among Belgians and Romanians came out, for example, within the theme “The heroes, villains, and victims of climate change.” Thus, whereas Belgians considered all people, including themselves, responsible for climate change, Romanians blamed mostly others, such as big companies, governments, and consumers. Additionally, both groups stated that climate change existed, but contrary to Belgians, Romanians voiced that climate change was often used as an exaggerated and politicized topic. The analysis revealed that perceptions about climate change, its causes, and its impacts are social constructs with a high degree of variability between and within the two national groups. The study argued that the cleavages between scientific literature and people’s views were blind spots on which a participatory approach was needed to better cope with climate change challenges.
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Mehta, Vikram M., Cody L. Knutson, Norman J. Rosenberg, J. Rolf Olsen, Nicole A. Wall, Tonya K. Bernadt, and Michael J. Hayes. "Decadal Climate Information Needs of Stakeholders for Decision Support in Water and Agriculture Production Sectors: A Case Study in the Missouri River Basin." Weather, Climate, and Society 5, no. 1 (January 1, 2013): 27–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-11-00063.1.
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Abstract Many decadal climate prediction efforts have been initiated under phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. There is considerable ongoing discussion about model deficiencies, initialization techniques, and data requirements, but not much attention is being given to decadal climate information (DCI) needs of stakeholders for decision support. Here, the authors report the results of exploratory activities undertaken to assess DCI needs in water resources and agriculture sectors, using the Missouri River basin as a case study. This assessment was achieved through discussions with 120 stakeholders. Stakeholders’ awareness of decadal dry and wet spells and their societal impacts in the basin are described, and stakeholders’ DCI needs and potential barriers to their use of DCI are enumerated. The authors find that impacts, including economic impacts, of decadal climate variability (DCV) on water and agricultural production in the basin are distinctly identifiable and characterizable. Stakeholders have clear notions about their needs for DCI and have offered specific suggestions as to how these might be met. However, while stakeholders are eager to have climate information, including decadal climate outlooks (DCOs), there are many barriers to the use of such information. The first and foremost barrier is that the credibility of DCOs is yet to be established. Second, the nature of institutional rules and regulations, laws, and legal precedents that pose obstacles to the use of DCOs must be better understood and means to modify these, where possible, must be sought. For the benefit of climate scientists, these and other stakeholder needs are also articulated in this paper.
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Bourne, Amanda R., Susan J. Cunningham, Claire N. Spottiswoode, and Amanda R. Ridley. "High temperatures drive offspring mortality in a cooperatively breeding bird." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 287, no. 1931 (July 29, 2020): 20201140. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.1140.
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An improved understanding of life-history responses to current environmental variability is required to predict species-specific responses to anthopogenic climate change. Previous research has suggested that cooperation in social groups may buffer individuals against some of the negative effects of unpredictable climates. We use a 15-year dataset on a cooperative breeding arid zone bird, the southern pied babbler Turdoides bicolor , to test (i) whether environmental conditions and group size correlate with survival of young during three development stages (egg, nestling, fledgling) and (ii) whether group size mitigates the impacts of adverse environmental conditions on survival of young. Exposure to high mean daily maximum temperatures (mean T max ) during early development was associated with reduced survival probabilities of young in all three development stages. No young survived when mean T max > 38°C, across all group sizes. Low survival of young at high temperatures has broad implications for recruitment and population persistence in avian communities given the rapid pace of advancing climate change. Impacts of high temperatures on survival of young were not moderated by group size, suggesting that the availability of more helpers in a group is unlikely to buffer against compromised offspring survival as average and maximum temperatures increase with rapid anthropogenic climate change.
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Egerer, Monika, Brenda Lin, and Dave Kendal. "Temperature Variability Differs in Urban Agroecosystems across Two Metropolitan Regions." Climate 7, no. 4 (April 3, 2019): 50. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli7040050.
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Climatically similar regions may experience different temperature extremes and weather patterns that warrant global comparisons of local microclimates. Urban agroecosystems are interesting sites to examine the multidimensional impacts of climate changes because they rely heavily on human intervention to maintain crop production under different and changing climate conditions. Here, we used urban community gardens across the California Central Coast metropolitan region, USA, and the Melbourne metropolitan region, Australia, to investigate how habitat-scale temperatures differ across climatically similar regions, and how people may be adapting their gardening behaviors to not only regional temperatures, but also to the local weather patterns around them. We show that, while annual means are very similar, there are strong interregional differences in temperature variability likely due to differences in the scale and scope of the temperature measurements, and regional topography. However, the plants growing within these systems are largely the same. The similarities may be due to gardeners’ capacities to adapt their gardening behaviors to reduce the adverse effects of local temperature variability on the productivity of their plot. Thus, gardens can serve as sites where people build their knowledge of local weather patterns and adaptive capacity to climate change and urban heat. Climate-focused studies in urban landscapes should consider how habitat-scale temperature variability is a background for interesting and meaningful social-ecological interactions.
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Anghileri, D., F. Pianosi, and R. Soncini-Sessa. "A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 8, no. 1 (January 19, 2011): 585–617. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-8-585-2011.
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Abstract. While quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on hydrology at the basin scale is quite addressed in the literature, extension of quantitative analysis to impact on the ecological, economic and social sphere is still limited, although well recognized as a key issue to support water resource planning and promote public participation. In this paper we propose a framework for assessing climate change impact on water-related activities at the basin scale. The peculiarities of our approach are that: (i) the impact quantification is based on a set of performance indicators defined together with the stakeholders, thus explicitly taking into account the water-users preferences; (ii) the management policies are obtained by optimal control techniques, linking stakeholder expectations and decision-making; (iii) the multi-objective nature of the management problem is fully preserved by simulating a set of Pareto-optimal management policies, which allows for evaluating not only variations in the indicator values but also tradeoffs among conflicting objectives. The framework is demonstrated by application to a real world case study, Lake Como basin (Italy). We show that the most conflicting water-related activities within the basin (i.e. hydropower production and agriculture) are likely to be negatively impacted by climate change. An uncertainty analysis is performed in order to assess how the climate natural variability and approximations in modeling the physical system (climate and hydrology) and the socio-economic system (management policy) affect the robustness of the estimated impacts. We demonstrate that the contribution of natural climate uncertainty is rather significant and that, among different modelling uncertainty sources, the one from climate modeling is very significant.
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Zhao, Yang, and Xinxiao Yu. "Effects of climatic variability and human activity on runoff in the Loess Plateau of China." Forestry Chronicle 89, no. 02 (April 2013): 153–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.5558/tfc2013-032.
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The Loess Plateau in north-central China has a long history of human activities. As a result of climate change, deforestation and sparse vegetative cover, the region suffers from water shortages and severe soil erosion, significantly influencing efforts for sustainable social development. In order to understand the impacts of climatic variability and human activities on runoff and other hydrological factors in this region, the Luoyugou catchment and its paired catchments (Qiaozidong and Qiaozixi) were selected. Statistical analysis indicated precipitation did not vary significantly whereas the annual runoff decreased from 1986 to 2008, with an abrupt change in 1994. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) increased slightly but not significantly. A comparison of runoff in the paired catchments showed land use changes reduced runoff by more than 38% under the same rainfall conditions. Human activities were the strongest contributor to changes in runoff and AET, at 67% and 90% respectively, while the remaining contributor was climate variation. The influence of various human activities on runoff is quite different, and soil-water conservation initiatives have a greater impact on runoff (about 41%). Thus, human activities were the primary reason for the reduction in runoff in the study catchment compared to climate. Greater emphasis should be given to afforestation and soil-water conservation measures.
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Hu, Guozheng, Jocelyn Davies, Qingzhu Gao, and Cunzhu Liang. "Response of ecosystem functions to climate change and implications for sustainable development on the Inner Mongolian Plateau." Rangeland Journal 40, no. 2 (2018): 191. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/rj18041.
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The responses of ecosystem functions in Inner Mongolian grasslands to climate change have implications for ecosystem services and sustainable development. Research published in two previous Special Issues of The Rangeland Journal shows that recent climate change added to overgrazing and other factors caused increased degradation of Inner Mongolian rangelands whereas on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, climate change tended to ameliorate the impacts of overgrazing. Recent climate change on the Mongolian Plateau involved warming with increasingly variable annual precipitation and decreased summer rainfall. Future climate projections are different, involving modest increases in precipitation and further climate warming. Research published in the current Special Issue shows that precipitation is the climate factor that has the most substantial impact on ecosystem functions in this region and is positively correlated with plant species diversity, ecosystem carbon exchange and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index. Increased flows of provisioning and regulating ecosystem services are expected with future climate change indicating that its impacts will be positive in this region. However, spatial heterogeneity in the environments and climates of Inner Mongolia highlights the risk of over-generalising from local-scale studies and indicates the value of increased attention to meta-analysis and regional scale models. The enhanced flows of ecosystem services from climate change may support sustainable development by promoting recovery of degraded grasslands with flow-on benefits for livelihoods and the regional economy. However, realising these potential benefits will depend on sound landscape management and addressing the risk of herders increasing livestock numbers to take advantage of the extra forage available. Investment in education is important to improve local capacity to adapt rangeland management to climate change, as are policies and strategies that integrate social, economic and ecological considerations and are tailored to specific regions. Gaps in understanding that could be addressed through further research on ecosystem functions include; belowground carbon exchange processes; the impact of increased variability in precipitation; and the impact of different management practices under changed climates.
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Nagy, Gustavo J., Carolina Cabrera, Genaro Coronel, Marilyn Aparicio-Effen, Ivar Arana, Rafael Lairet, and Alicia Villamizar. "Addressing climate adaptation in education, research and practice: the CLiVIA-network." International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 9, no. 4 (August 21, 2017): 469–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-04-2016-0056.
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Purpose Climate change and variability are both a developmental and an environmental issue. Adaptation to climate change and variability has gained a prominent place on global and local policy agendas, evolving from mainly climate risks impacts and vulnerability assessments to mainly adaptation action, imposing new defies to higher education (HE). The purpose of this paper is to introduce the Climate Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) Network (CliVIA-Net), a South American university-based coalition aimed at achieving a science for/of adaptation. Design/methodology/approach CliVIA-Net is a collaborative effort by academic groups from across the spectrum of the natural, social and health sciences focused on improving climate VIA on education, research and practice. In consonance with international literature and practices, the network shifted from a discipline-oriented approach to an interdisciplinary and Earth System Science (ESS)-oriented one. It seeks to advance fundamental understanding and participatory practice-oriented research and to develop a problem orientation question/solving answering methodology. A set of cases studies illustrates how CliVIA-Net faces adaptation and sustainability challenges in the twenty-first century. Findings Focusing on interdisciplinary graduate education, practice-oriented research and problem orientation practice on climate threats which are already threatening the environment, population’s well-being and sustainability, allows for the co-production of knowledge and solutions, as well stakeholders’ buy-in and commitment. Originality/value CliVIA-Net draws upon the results of evolving interdisciplinary approaches on global change and VIA education, the research partnership with stakeholders and decision-makers to develop environmental and health outcomes, e.g. vulnerability indicators and scenario planning.
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Anghileri, D., F. Pianosi, and R. Soncini-Sessa. "A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15, no. 6 (June 28, 2011): 2025–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2025-2011.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract. While quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on hydrology at the basin scale is quite addressed in the literature, extension of quantitative analysis to impact on the ecological, economic and social sphere is still limited, although well recognized as a key issue to support water resource planning and promote public participation. In this paper we propose a framework for assessing climate change impact on water-related activities at the basin scale. The specific features of our approach are that: (i) the impact quantification is based on a set of performance indicators defined together with the stakeholders, thus explicitly taking into account the water-users preferences; (ii) the management policies are obtained by optimal control techniques, linking stakeholder expectations and decision-making; (iii) the multi-objective nature of the management problem is fully preserved by simulating a set of Pareto-optimal management policies, which allows for evaluating not only variations in the indicator values but also tradeoffs among conflicting objectives. The framework is demonstrated by application to a real world case study, Lake Como basin (Italy). We show that the most conflicting water-related activities within the basin (i.e. hydropower production and agriculture) are likely to be negatively impacted by climate change. We discuss the robustness of the estimated impacts to the climate natural variability and the approximations in modeling the physical system and the socio-economic system, and perform an uncertainty analysis of several sources of uncertainty. We demonstrate that the contribution of natural climate uncertainty is rather remarkable and that, among different modelling uncertainty sources, the one from climate modeling is very significant.
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Challinor, Andy J., W. Neil Adger, Tim G. Benton, Declan Conway, Manoj Joshi, and Dave Frame. "Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 376, no. 2121 (April 30, 2018): 20170301. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0301.
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Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment.