Academic literature on the topic '190103 Social impacts of climate change and variability'

Madagascar is exposed to a variety of natural hazards, including seasonal cyclones, floods and droughts that have severe impacts on the national economy, mainly dependent on agriculture. Due to these problems, the security of livelihoods is threatened and although Madagascar people had the historic ability to cope with these threats, it is of prime importance to consider climate change adaptation in a more holistic manner in the face of climate change and variability. However, for adaptation to be appropriately enacted there is a need to understand how local context and conditions are. For that, this study aims to understand livelihood security as well as rural community’s perception to climate variability and change and their impacts in order to better address climate change adaptation. The first step is to understand how local livelihoods are characterized, what local conditions are, and how they are related to occurring changes and impacts through a case study in Alaotra Region in East Central Madagascar. An analysis of livelihood resources (human, natural, social, physical and financial capital), livelihood strategies and outcomes was coupled with an investigation of communities’ perception on the climate variability and impacts on their lives and livelihoods. Findings showed that livelihoods of local communities, living mainly from agriculture and fisheries, are threatened by a degrading environment and related impacts, exacerbated by a changing climate. Households are facing climate extremes which directly affect their livelihoods, already characterized by limited assets and entitlements. Outputs from this study are believed to further contribute to understand the factors that need to be considered to better address adaptation strategies based on the current vulnerability and climate variability, both at present time and in the future.

Vulnerability to climate change and variability impacts has been identified as a major cog in the wheel of both livelihood and resilience, particularly in vulnerable groups in rural areas. This study aims to assess genders’ vulnerability dimension to climate change and variability in REDD + (Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation+) piloted site/clusters, Cross River State, Nigeria. Data were proportionately collected from selected 200 respondents on gender disaggregated level using questionnaires. The assessment adopted the sustainable livelihood approach (livelihood vulnerability index) and compared the results with the IPCC vulnerability standard of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity weighted mean. The results revealed a significant difference in the vulnerability dimension of both women and men disaggregated levels (LVI: men 0.509, women 0.618). The women category was more vulnerable to six out of seven major components of LVI assessed: (livelihood strategies (0.646), social networks (0.364), water (0.559), health (0.379), food and nutrition (0.507), and natural hazards and climate variability (0.482), while men only vulnerable to socio-demographic major component (0.346). Vulnerability indices also showed women to be more exposed (0.482), and sensitive (0.489) with the least adaptive capacities (0.462) to the climate change and variability impacts. Overall, on the IPCC-LVI index, women are more vulnerable (0.0098) to climate change and variability impacts than men (−0.0093). The study recommends that the women's category resilience and adaptive capacity should be empowered in adaptation projects in climate change such as REDD + (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation+) to reduce their vulnerability to impacts of climate change and variability in the context of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacities. This will be instrumental in formulating policies to address the specific needs of gender categories in reducing vulnerability to climate change and variability. This pragmatic approach may be used to monitor gender vulnerability dimension, and livelihood enhancement and evaluate potential climate change adaptation programs. Additionally, the introduction of IPCC-LVI as a baseline instrument will enhance information on gender resilience and adaptive capacity for policy effectiveness in a data-scarce region particularly Africa.

Abstract. Extreme events are part of climate variability. Dealing with variability is still a challenge that might be increased due to climate change. However, impacts of extreme events are not only dependent on their variability, but also on management and governance. In Brazil, its semi-arid region is vulnerable to extreme events, especially droughts, for centuries. Actually, other Brazilian regions that have been mostly concerned with floods are currently also experiencing droughts. This article evaluates how a combination between climate variability and water governance might affect water scarcity and increase the impacts of extreme events on some regions. For this evaluation, Ostrom's framework for analyzing social-ecological systems (SES) was applied. Ostrom's framework is useful for understanding interactions between resource systems, governance systems and resource users. This study focuses on social-ecological systems located in a drought-prone region of Brazil. Two extreme events were selected, one in 1997–2000, when Brazil's new water policy was very young, and the other one in 2012–2015. The analysis of SES considering Ostrom's principle "Clearly defined boundaries" showed that deficiencies in water management cause the intensification of drought's impacts for the water users. The reasons are more related to water management and governance problems than to drought event magnitude or climate change. This is a problem that holdup advances in dealing with extreme events.

Purpose The Sertão, located in the Northeastern region of Brazil, is the most populous semi-arid region in the world. The region also faces the highest rates of poverty, food insecurity and climate risks in this country. Basic economic activities, such as extensive livestock and dairy farming, tend to be mainly affected by the increasing temperatures and recurrent droughts taking place in the past decades. This paper aims to analyze farmers’ responses to climatic variability in the Sertão. Design/methodology/approach Analyses are based on farm-level data of the Agricultural Census 2006 and on historical climate data gathered by meteorological stations. The climate impacts and the effectiveness of adaptive strategies are compared between three groups of farms, which discriminate different levels of social and environmental vulnerability. Four production functions are modeled (milk, cattle, goat and sheep) accounting for sample selectivity bias. Findings In response to increasing temperatures, farmers tend to shift their activities mainly to cattle and dairy farming. But the overall productivity tends to reduce with the recurrence of droughts. Decreasing precipitation affects mainly the production of milk of smallholder family farmers and the cattle herd of non-family farmers. Research limitations/implications Analyses do not account for short- and medium-run productive impacts of extreme droughts, which usually have devastating socioeconomic effects in the region. Originality/value Smallholder family farmers are the most vulnerable group who deserve more social and technical intervention, as they lack basic social and technological resources that can greatly improve their productivities and overcome the impacts of decreasing precipitation.

Coastal social-ecological systems are vulnerable to climate change with impacts distributed unequally amongst human communities. Vulnerability assessments, an increasingly popular methodology for understanding variability in vulnerability and its components, often fail to include or recognize the perceptions of individuals in the focal system. Perceptions of climate vulnerability are influenced by experiences, social networks, and cognitive biases, and often differ from vulnerability as measured by subject experts. Because perceptions influence human behavior, including if and how people take adaptive action, a failure to recognize perceptions can lead to ineffective adaptation plans and an incomplete understanding of system vulnerability. Here, as part of a novel, multi-method effort to evaluate vulnerability to climate change in the California Current social-ecological system, we survey fishers from Washington, Oregon, and California to understand their perceived vulnerability and investigate what factors drive variability in their views. We find that while there is a connection between some factors known to influence vulnerability of fishers, including vessel size and the diversity of fishing portfolios, the most significant predictor of higher perceived vulnerability was environmental worldview, specifically a belief that climate change is occurring. Motivation to adapt is also influenced by the sentiment that the impacts of climate change are more urgent and consequential than other problems; thus, we also evaluate how concern levels for environmental issues compare to other challenges that may affect fishing success and wellbeing. While just under half think that they will be personally harmed by climate change, generally the fishers were more concerned about issues like costs and regulations than they were about environmental impacts. This assessment of perceptions highlights the importance of communication and addressing cognitive barriers to adaptation in the effort to develop climate resilient fisheries and fishing communities in the United States.

Purpose – This paper aims to describe the conduct and outcomes of an integrated assessment (IA) of the vulnerability to climate change of government service provision at regional scale in New South Wales, Australia. The assessment was co-designed with regional public sector managers to address their needs for an improved understanding of regional vulnerabilities to climate change and variability. Design/methodology/approach – The study used IA of climate change impacts through a complex adaptive systems approach incorporating social learning and stakeholder-led research processes. Workshops were conducted with stakeholders from NSW government agencies, state-owned corporations and local governments representing the tourism, water, primary industries, human settlements, emergency management, human health, infrastructure and natural landscapes sectors. Participants used regional socioeconomic profiling and climate projections to consider the impacts on and the need to adapt community service provision to future climate. Findings – Many sectors are currently experiencing difficulty coping with changes in regional demographics and structural adjustment in the economy. Climate change will result in further impacts on already vulnerable systems in the forms of resource conflicts between expanded human settlements, the infrastructure that supports them and the environment (particularly for water); increased energy costs; and declining agricultural production and food security. Originality/value – This paper describes the application of meta-analysis in climate change policy research and frames climate change as a problem of environmental pollution and an issue of development and social equity.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate climate change perceptions and adaptation strategies in the communities of Morogoro region of Tanzania. Climate change is a vital issue of global concern. Design/methodology/approach – Rain fall data trends collected from different meteorological stations in the region were useful in assessment of climate variability and change trends from the historical perspective. In addition, quantitative interviews, surveys and focussed discussion groups were used to collect data capturing past and present trends in the catchment, and reasons provided by 199 respondents from a total of six villages. The data were collected with the aid of trained research assistants and trained graduates selected from each of the randomly select villages. Findings – Significant differences in rainfall intensities have been recorded by use of feedback results from analysis of variance tests conducted. Major indicators of climate variability and change include: increased dry spells (39.7 per cent), drying of rivers (34.7 per cent), a reduction in water flows (14.6 per cent) and poor economy of the area (11.1 per cent). Research limitations/implications – The scope of the study does not cover certain aspects such as the spatial and temporal changes in daily temperature which could have provided important and additional dimension. This study also did not take into consideration institutional arrangements required to successfully implement national adaptation programmes to climate change. Finally, it is important to remember that peoples’ perceptions determine the social mental picture of climate change. Practical implications – The study suggests the need for leverage on resource use through education and good governance strategies to be employed by resource planners, leaders and policy makers. Social implications – This study links scientific and participatory data as an approach for incorporating modern technologies and local knowledge into the design of useful practices and strategies as well as their successful implementation. Opinions from communities supported the urgent need for effective use and management of resources while laying emphasis on advancement of both indigenous and imported technologies. Originality/value – An understanding of how the community views climate change is crucial in design of practices aimed at improving their well-being. In this regard, a study investigating smallholder farmers’ views regarding major drivers of change, assessing main factors leading to changes in climate experienced and identifying potential coping strategies against climate change, was conducted in East Africa, Tanzania between 2009 and 2010. This paper identifies potential resilient practices intended to minimize destruction and maximize opportunities likely to benefit Morogoro region.

Abstract The changes in climatic conditions and their associated impacts are contributing to a worsening of existing gender inequalities and a heightening of women’s socioeconomic vulnerabilities in South Africa. Using data collected by research methods inspired by the tradition of participatory appraisals, we systematically discuss the impacts of climate change on marginalized women and the ways in which they are actively responding to climate challenges and building their adaptive capacity and resilience in the urban areas of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We argue that changes in climate have both direct and indirect negative impacts on women’s livelihoods and well-being. Less than one-half (37%) of the women reported implementing locally developed coping mechanisms to minimize the impacts of climate-related events, whereas 63% reported lacking any form of formal safety nets to deploy and reduce the impacts of climate-induced shocks and stresses. The lack of proactive and gender-sensitive local climate change policies and strategies creates socioeconomic and political barriers that limit the meaningful participation of women in issues that affect them and marginalize them in the climate change discourses and decision-making processes, thereby hampering their efforts to adapt and reduce existing vulnerabilities. Thus, we advocate for the creation of an enabling environment to develop and adopt progendered, cost-effective, transformative, and sustainable climate change policies and adaptation strategies that are responsive to the needs of vulnerable groups (women) of people in society. This will serve to build their adaptive capacity and resilience to climate variability and climate change–related risks and hazards.

SUMMARYThis paper provides a brief update on the potential impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and marine wild capture fisheries based on the scientific literature published since 2007. Current models predict shifts in fish distributions of 45–60 km per decade, with 0·80 of species moving poleward. With a high CO2 emissions scenario, little overall change in the global maximum potential fisheries catch is projected (±1%), although with high spatial variability: decreases of 40% are projected for the tropics, with increases of 30–70% for higher latitudes. Tropical nations appear to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on fisheries production. Coupled atmosphere–ocean–fish production–human society models are beginning to be developed for specific market systems. Results suggest that how society responds can have as large or larger an effect as the strength of the climate impact. Good observations of the impacts of climate change exist for high latitude, coral reef and North Atlantic systems. Management strategies are being developed to address climate change and fisheries, including risk and vulnerability assessment frameworks, pro-active planning with stakeholders regarding potential impacts and responses and examining existing regulations to identify gaps created by altered species distributions (e.g. unregulated fishing in newly ice-free areas). Overall, fisheries governance systems are needed which are flexible and can quickly adapt to changing ecological and human societal conditions. Significant knowledge gaps include a comprehensive and co-ordinated global network of observations to help distinguish climate change from variability, and increased detail in the structure and processes of models. Necessary next steps include reducing the uncertainties of climate impacts models at present, understanding the synergistic effects of multiple stressors and the inclusion of humans into coupled models and socio-economic analyses, in particular at regional and local scales. In the intermediate term, developing nations in tropical regions are likely to be most negatively impacted, whereas developed nations at higher latitudes are most likely to benefit. In the longer term, overall marine food security will depend on the impacts of climate change on marine primary production, for which the present projections are highly uncertain. Adoption of an integrated social–ecological approach that improves the adaptive capacities of ecological and human social systems will help to sustain food security from marine wild capture fisheries.

Eff ectively addressing climate change has proven to be intractable, even as the impacts of increased climate variability have become more prominent. In this paper, I consider the existence of individual moral obligations regarding climate change. Through an engagement with Walter-Sinnott-Armstrong and Avram Hiller’s debate concerning the moral signifi cance of individual level GHG emis-sions, I diagnose a fi t problem that exists in the application of our ordinary ways of thinking about individual moral obligations (what I call the causal liability model) to the ethical challenges of climate change. In light of this fi t problem, I argue that the question of individual moral obligations concerning climate change should be preceded by an analysis the nature of climate change as a moral problem. I argue that, given certain features, climate change is a matter of social justice and suggest that models of shared responsibility off er a path forward for articulating individual obligations in this context.

Considerable scientific evidence showing climate change will amplify disasters and cause adverse health impacts. If not mitigated, climate change will push health systems beyond their limits and capacity. The projected trend of increasing climaterelated disasters will intensify existing health risks arising from more frequent and severe extreme weather events like floods, bushfires, poor air and water quality, and emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. This incidents place enormous demands on the future of the healthcare sector, especially on hospitals. To prepare for and deal with the immense challenges ahead, hospitals need to incorporate climate change adaptation (CCA)1 strategies into planning for disaster risk reduction (DRR)2. It is, thus, timely to investigate the feasibility of and pathways to future-poof hospitals against disasters in a changing climate. Hospitals are no stranger to climate change as an issue. They are at the forefront of addressing the health impacts of disasters, treating the illnesses and injuries caused by them, and upholding critical response roles during and after disasters. This role will continue to expand as hospitals struggle to cope with the additional demands of climate change-related disasters. Many hospitals have in place their own emergency response procedures, but little information is available in terms of the extent of how they have incorporated CCA measures into their risk management plans. While hospitals are affected by climate change there is also the reality that they are in part responsible for accelerating climate change. Studies estimate that the healthcare sector is responsible for approximately 4.4% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, it is important therefore for healthcare to start shifting to renewable and reliable energy sources and adopt environmentally responsible waste management practices. The problem remains to facilitate this; it would require leadership commitment, and full participation of other healthcare sector stakeholders. The organisation Health Promoting Hospitals Network (HPH), with members worldwide, promotes an integrative, eco-friendly partnership approach to improving hospital practices. The HPH is well-suited to leading the way to integrate DRR and CCA to future-proof hospitals, making it an ideal partner for this research. Among its network members, Taiwan, with its extensive HPH network and supportive government policies, was chosen for this study. Therefore, this study aims to examine opportunities and strategies for developing HPH’s work in Taiwan ensuring that hospitals are geared towards being future-proof against disasters brought about by climate change. The research began with an extensive critical literature review and then applied quantitative and qualitative methods to conduct a case study on Taiwan’s Health Promoting Hospitals. The study adopted the participatory action research (AR) approach, commonly used in health promoting settings, because it enables participants to develop strategies and actions for change and improve knowledge, strategies, and actions in the process. Overall, the study found that the AR process enabled HPH participants to lead the climate movement in the healthcare sector in Taiwan. This has led Taiwan’s health promoting hospitals to transform towards a sustainable future. Using the AR process, key challenges to effectively implement DRR and CCA efforts were identified, and it was determined that these issues could be addressed through standards that regulate hospitals. Therefore, the researchers and partners created and advocated for a new climate action standard under Taiwan’s Healthy Hospitals 2.0 Accreditation Program. As the study was being conducted, the whole world was affected by the COVID-19 and soon after a pandemic was announced. This led to the AR to modify its priorities in response to emergency needs. The result is the co-design of eco-friendly measures that could ensure healthcare workers’ protection and safety and to make healthcare reduce hazardous waste given that the pandemic has produced many unintentional health care wastes in the process of battling the virus. The research and its findings first synthesise the literature on the rationale for linking CCA and DRR in the hospital sector to inform health authorities and hospital decisionmakers on the need to incorporate these into future action plans. Second, it identifies useful indicators and strategies to guide climate action for building future-proof hospitals, especially in Taiwan. Third, it addresses organisational changes and ways HPH networks could advocate for and facilitate these changes, including strategies to leverage that hospital accreditation scheme to enhance adherence. Finally, the research adds to the evidence that HPHs can use participatory AR to deal with complex issues to better prepare for the future. This is not only timely but has practical implications for other settings-based health promotion movements such as Healthy Cities, Workplaces, and Health-Promoting Schools to help them integrate CCA and DRR into their future action plans in the pursuit of sustainable development.
Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
School of Medicine & Dentistry
Griffith Health
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Dans un contexte de changement climatique actuel et futur, se traduisantnotamment par un assèchement déjà observé en Méditerranée, cette thèse seconcentre sur l’étude de la variabilité contemporaine et future (1957-2100)des événements de très longs épisodes secs (eTLES) hivernaux (septembreavril)dans le bassin méditerranéen. Une méthodologie originale a été développéeau cours de cette thèse pour appréhender les eTLES comme desévénements climatiques singuliers, caractérisés par des critères de localisation,de durée et d’extension spatiale.Sur la période contemporaine (1957-2013), 76 eTLES ont été détectésdans le bassin méditerranéen. Ces événements sont répartis en 4 principalesconfigurations géographiques : Nord-Est, Ouest, Dispersés & Restreints etSud-Est. Les configurations de types Nord-Est et Ouest sont associées àdes blocages anticycloniques localisés à environ 1 000 km au nord-ouestdes secteurs principalement affectés par les eTLES, favorisant un ciel dégagéet l’absence de précipitations. Les configurations de types Dispersés& Restreints et Sud-Est sont particulières, car la première est caractériséecomme étant une classe résiduelle regroupant des eTLES à faible extensionspatiale répartis dans l’ensemble du bassin, la seconde est caractérisée pardes eTLES saisonniers qui s’insèrent dans la continuité de l’été sec observéà l’est du bassin méditerranéen.Les grands régimes de circulation atmosphérique du domaine Euro-Atlantique montrent un certain contrôle sur les eTLES. Ainsi, la phasepositive de l’oscillation nord-atlantique (NAO+) est le seul régime à êtreclairement favorable au développement d’eTLES sur la quasi-totalité du bassin.Le régime est-atlantique (EA) ne montre pas de contrôle sur les eTLES,atlantic ridge (AR) et la phase négative de l’Oscillation Nord-Atlantique(NAO-) sont deux régimes généralement défavorables aux eTLES. Cependant,des eTLES sont pourtant associés aux régimes AR, EA et NAO-. Pourcela, il faut que ces trois régimes de circulation soient associés à des pressionsatmosphériques légèrement plus élevées au nord-ouest des secteursimpactés par les eTLES, comparativement à leur climatologie respective.Les longues séquences des régimes AR, EA et NAO+, représentatives d’unecertaine stabilité atmosphérique durable dans le temps, sont préférentiellementassociées aux eTLES, contrairement aux courtes séquences de ces troisrégimes. À l’inverse, les longues séquences du régime NAO-, renforçant les basses pressions atmosphériques sur l’Europe et le bassin méditerranéen,sont peu associées aux eTLES.Bien que les deux modèles ALADIN52 et LMDZ4-NEMOMED8 affichentdes résultats différents à plusieurs niveaux, ils s’accordent tout demême à montrer que les eTLES devraient être de plus en plus longs d’icià l’horizon 2100, de façon encore plus marquée pour la trajectoire RCP8.5que RCP4.5. Une analyse multi-modèles comprenant 12 simulations CMIP5montre qu’en moyenne par saison, la pression réduite au niveau de la meraurait tendance à augmenter sur l’océan Atlantique, au large des côtes françaiseset sur le centre du bassin méditerranéen, de façon robuste pour latrajectoire RCP8.5. À l’inverse, la fréquence et la durée des séquences des 4régimes de circulation atmosphérique ne semblent pas être amenées à évoluerd’ici à l’horizon 2100.Une étude est enfin menée pour constater les impacts des eTLES surla production agricole en Espagne. Le nombre de jours d’eTLES impactedavantage les rendements d’orge, de blé et d’avoine (espèces d’hiver et cultivéesau travers d’une agriculture pluviale) que les simples ratios de jourssecs et les cumuls de pluie en Espagne. Une étude de cas réalisée sur deuxsaisons ayant reçu des cumuls de pluie comparables montre qu’en plus desrendements, un eTLES provoque une baisse significative de l’humidité dessols et du débit du fleuve Èbre
In the context of climate change, as reflected by a dryer Mediterraneanbasin, this thesis focused on the study of the contemporary and future variability(1957-2100) of the wintertime (September to April) very long dryspells events (called VLDSe) in the Mediterranean basin. An original methodologywas developed in this thesis in order to define VLDSe as singularclimatic events, characterized by location, duration and spatial extent criteria.76 VLDSe were detected in the Mediterranean basin on the contemporaryperiod (1957-2013). These events are divided into 4 main geographicalpatterns: North-East, West, Scattered Localized and South-East. North-East and West configurations are associated with anticyclonic conditionslocated approximately 1 000 km northwestern to the areas affected by theVLDSe, favoring a clear sky and no precipitations. The Scattered Localizedand South-East configurations are special: the first one is characterized asa residual class grouping VLDSe with small spatial extent and distributedthroughout the entire basin, and the second one is characterized by seasonalVLDSe which are the continuation of the dry summer observed in the eastof the Mediterranean basin.Euro-Atlantic weather regimes have some control on the VLDSe. Thepositive phase of the north-atlantic oscillation regime (NAO+) is the onlyone that is clearly favorable to the development of VLDSe on almost the entirebasin. The east-atlantic regime (EA) does not show any control on theVLDSe, and the atlantic ridge (AR) and the negative phase of the northatlanticoscillation (NAO-) regimes are generally detrimental to VLDSe. However,some VLDSe can sometimes be associated with AR, EA and NAOregimes.This requires these three weather regimes to be associated withslightly higher atmospheric pressure northwest of the areas impacted bythe VLDSe, compared to their respective climatology. Long duration of theAR, EA and NAO+ regimes, which are coupled with sustained atmosphericstability, are preferentially associated with VLDSe, in contrast to the shortduration. Conversely, the long duration of the NAO- regime, reinforcingthe low atmospheric pressure on Europe and the Mediterranean basin, areweakly associated with VLDSe.Although the two climate models ALADIN52 and LMDZ4-NEMOMED8 differ in several respects, they agree in that VLDSe should be longer by 2100,especially in the RCP8.5 trajectory. A multi-model analysis with 12 CMIP5simulations shows that wintertime sea-level pressure tends to increase in theAtlantic Ocean, off the French coast and in the central the Mediterraneanbasin for the RCP8.5 trajectory. Conversely, the frequency and duration ofthe 4 weather regimes do not show significant trends until the end of the21st century.Finally, a study is carried out to assess the impact of VLDSe on agriculturalproduction in Spain. The number of VLDSe days has a larger impactson the yields of barley, wheat and oats (winter species and cultivatedthrough rainfed agriculture) than the simple ratio of dry days or seasonalrainfall amounts in Spain. A two-season case study, based on seasons withcomparable rainfall amounts, shows that in addition to yields, a VLDSecauses a significant decrease in soil moisture and in the Ebro River flow

The research presented in this dissertation attempted to determine whether climate variability is critical to sea level changes in coastal BC. To that end, a number of statistical models were proposed to clarify the relationships between five climate variability indices representing large-scale atmospheric circulation regimes and sea levels, storm surges, extreme winds and storm track variability in coastal BC. The research findings demonstrate that decadal to inter decadal climatic variability is fundamental to explaining the changing frequency and intensity of extreme atmospheric and oceanic environmental variables in coastal BC. The trends revealed by these analyses suggest that coastal flooding risks are certain to increase in this region during the next few decades, especially if the global sea-levels continue to rise as predicted. The out come of this study emphasis the need to look beyond climatic means when completing climate impact assessments, by clearly showing that climate extremes are currently causing the majority of weather-related damage along coastal BC. The findings highlight the need to derive knowledge on climate variability and change effects relevant at regional to local scales to enable useful adaptation strategies. The major findings of this research resulted in five independent manuscripts: (i) Sea level responses to climatic variability and change in Northern BC. The Manuscript (MC) is published in the Journal of atmospheric and oceans (AO 46 (3), 277-296); (ii) Extreme sea-level recurrences in the south coast of BC with climate considerations. This MC is in review with the Asia Pacific Journal of Climate Change (APJCC); (iii) Extreme sea-surge responses to climate variability in coastal BC. This MC is currently in review in the Annals of the AAG (AN-2009-0098); (iv) Extreme wind regime responses to climate variability and change in the inner-south-coast of BC. This MC is published in the Journal of Atmosphere and Oceans (AO 47 (1), 41-62); (v) Sensitivity of winter storm track characteristics in North-eastern Pacific to climate variability. This manuscript is in review with the Journal of Atmosphere and Oceans (AO (1113)). The findings of this research program made key contributions to the following regional sea level rise impact assessment studies in BC: (i) An examination of the Factors Affecting Relative and Absolute Sea level in coastal BC (Thomson et al., 2008). (ii) Coastal vulnerability to climate change and sea level rise, Northeast Graham Island, Haida Gwaii (formally known as the Queen Charlotte Islands), BC (Walker et al., 2007). (iii) Storm Surge: Atmospheric Hazards, Canadian Atmospheric Hazards Network - Pacific and Yukon Region, C/O Bill Taylor.

A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy May, 2015.
There is sufficient evidence supporting that climate change and variability are pervasive realities that are strongly impacting on smallholder farmers in the Great Ruaha River sub-Basin of Tanzania. This PhD study examines smallholder farmers’ vulnerability, coping and adaptation strategies to climate change and variability (including non-climatic stresses), and investigates how such coping and adaptation may be constrained or enhanced given climate variability and change. Both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods were used when engaging with smallholder farmers and government officials. Primary data collection was undertaken in two phases, with phase one using participatory tools (e.g. focus group discussions, wealth ranking, community mapping and transect walk, and historical time lines). Data collected include climatic and non-climatic extreme events, farmers’ perceptions, coping and adaptation strategies. Phase two involved detailed individual interviews (questionnaire surveys) and key informant interviews (case studies), so as to obtain in-depth information on issues of interest. Secondary data were collected from existing statistical sources, literature surveys in archives, libraries and documentation centres, and from governmental agencies (e.g. TMA). Demographic, agricultural production and livestock statistics, and rainfall and temperature records were collected. Results from selected meteorological stations and farmers’ perceptions (74%) indicate that there has been an increase in average maximum temperatures, and both dry and wet years with varying magnitudes during the past four decades. Other climatic stresses include delayed onset and later cessation of the rain seasons. The agreement between farmers’ perceptions and rainfall trends provides good evidence that the climate has become increasingly variable in the GRRB during the past four decades. Achieving sustainable livelihoods is further compounded by non-climatic stresses such as access to markets and coordinating institutions. Results indicate that vulnerability is a complex phenomenon that entails two approaches (end-point and starting-point perspectives). The end-point perspective views vulnerability as the net projected climate change impacts after adaptation has taken place, whilst the starting-point perspective looks at both the current and future multiple stresses and places much emphasis in improving the adaptive capacity. In the study villages, such a nuanced picture highlighted areas for enhanced adaptation strategies. Farmers respond by using various strategies to deal with droughts, floods and other stresses when they occur. During droughts, they mostly use irrigation (canal, pumping and cans), or plant short-term maturing crops. During food shortages, farmers use strategies such as buying food, borrowing money, temporary migration, working in other people’s farms for cash, and reducing consumption. Moreover, the farmers’ choice of adaptation and coping strategies is influenced by factors such as location, access to resources, education levels and institutions. This calls for a whole system approach, which entails defining vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climatic and non-climatic stresses and thus designing appropriate response strategies. For example, mainstreaming adaptation to such stresses when considering development plans, projects, programmes and policies at all scales.

AbstractWater resources will be significantly impacted upon by climate change, and these impacts will be transmitted to the many sectors and services dependent on them. The nature, extent, and timing of these impacts remain uncertain, but the long lifetime of water infrastructures requires that their planning, development, and operations should be resilient to climate changes. An effective approach is to focus on the management of current climate variability as it relates to water, which strengthens the ability of communities and countries to foresee, manage, and adapt to the impacts of longer-term climate change on water-related activities. This approach is illustrated by cases from Southern and Eastern Africa.Current “stationary” stochastic methods of hydrological analysis can still be used under assumptions of a “dynamic stationarity” although more regular updating of hydrological data will be required. Methodologies to evaluate economic dimensions of risk reduction introduce additional uncertainties but may help decision-makers to understand the risks and opportunities. Diversification of sources and sequencing of resource development pathways are helpful strategies to adapt to climate change but must ensure that risks affecting different sources are not correlated. Attention must also be given to demand-side interventions in order to reconcile supply and demand, and these perspectives must be shared with social, economic, and political actors to ensure that strategies are communicated, understood, and supported by the wider community.

AbstractWater resources will be significantly impacted upon by climate change, and these impacts will be transmitted to the many sectors and services dependent on them. The nature, extent, and timing of these impacts remain uncertain, but the long lifetime of water infrastructures requires that their planning, development, and operations should be resilient to climate changes. An effective approach is to focus on the management of current climate variability as it relates to water, which strengthens the ability of communities and countries to foresee, manage, and adapt to the impacts of longer-term climate change on water-related activities. This approach is illustrated by cases from Southern and Eastern Africa.Current “stationary” stochastic methods of hydrological analysis can still be used under assumptions of a “dynamic stationarity” although more regular updating of hydrological data will be required. Methodologies to evaluate economic dimensions of risk reduction introduce additional uncertainties but may help decision-makers to understand the risks and opportunities. Diversification of sources and sequencing of resource development pathways are helpful strategies to adapt to climate change but must ensure that risks affecting different sources are not correlated. Attention must also be given to demand-side interventions in order to reconcile supply and demand, and these perspectives must be shared with social, economic, and political actors to ensure that strategies are communicated, understood, and supported by the wider community.

AbstractFor their livelihood activities, rural farming communities depend more on extractive capital. Their capacity to cultivate sufficiently for their family maintenance is greatly impeded by the absence of either temperature or rainfall quantity pattern or uniformity. The divergent effects of recent extreme weather events around the world, including within relatively small geographical areas, exemplify the unequal impacts of climate change on populations. Akwa Ibom State has been found vulnerable to extreme weather events, such as flooding, severe storms, and rising sea levels, leading to homelessness, poverty, conflicts, and war for millions of people. All of these have resulted in social disturbances and dislocations among rural populations, especially in coastal communities, making them more vulnerable to climate variability. In the field of social vulnerability in the state, not much has been achieved. This chapter analyzes the vulnerability of the rural population to climate variability; the socio-economic characteristics of the rural population; the index of social vulnerability of rural dwellers to climate variability; social vulnerability factors; and the rural population’s social vulnerability mitigation initiatives in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. Social science approaches to human vulnerability draw critical attention to the root causes and factors why people are forced to respond to risks from climate change. A complex social approach to vulnerability is most likely to enhance mitigation and adaptation preparation efforts, given that vulnerability is a multidimensional mechanism rather than an invariable state.

AbstractFor their livelihood activities, rural farming communities depend more on extractive capital. Their capacity to cultivate sufficiently for their family maintenance is greatly impeded by the absence of either temperature or rainfall quantity pattern or uniformity. The divergent effects of recent extreme weather events around the world, including within relatively small geographical areas, exemplify the unequal impacts of climate change on populations. Akwa Ibom State has been found vulnerable to extreme weather events, such as flooding, severe storms, and rising sea levels, leading to homelessness, poverty, conflicts, and war for millions of people. All of these have resulted in social disturbances and dislocations among rural populations, especially in coastal communities, making them more vulnerable to climate variability. In the field of social vulnerability in the state, not much has been achieved. This chapter analyzes the vulnerability of the rural population to climate variability; the socio-economic characteristics of the rural population; the index of social vulnerability of rural dwellers to climate variability; social vulnerability factors; and the rural population’s social vulnerability mitigation initiatives in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. Social science approaches to human vulnerability draw critical attention to the root causes and factors why people are forced to respond to risks from climate change. A complex social approach to vulnerability is most likely to enhance mitigation and adaptation preparation efforts, given that vulnerability is a multidimensional mechanism rather than an invariable state.

Abstract In developing countries like Tanzania, societal vulnerability to the risks of climate change and variability (CC&V) exacerbate ongoing social and economic challenges because people's livelihoods are largely dependent on resources that are sensitive to climate change such as agriculture. Although studies show that most communities in Africa have low adaptive capacity, for centuries people have developed traditional adaptation strategies to face climate inter-annual variability and extreme events based on their long-term experiences. Various studies show how CC&V have impacted the socio-economic and and environmental conditions among the pastoral and agropastoral societies. However, little emphasis has been given to studying the community's resilience status to CC&V impacts. Much of the focus has been placed on studying the community vulnerability and impacts of CC&V as well as coping and adaptation strategies to avert CC&V impacts. Little is known on how the interaction between society and nature can enhance or reduce community resilience under changing climate. The study was conducted in two villages, Ibulyu and Mahaha, in Bariadi District. The main objective of the study was to deepen our understanding of the socio-ecological resilience of agropastoral communities to CC&V impacts in a semi-arid district. The study employed both qualitative and quantitative research designs. Quantitative data were captured through a household survey whereas qualitative data was collected through focus group discussion, key informant interviews and field observation. The results show that CC&V have negatively affected the farming system in the study area. The ecological setting of the area has significantly been altered to the extent that it cannot provide the required ecosystem services and products that are important for human and livestock sustainance. Changes in the production system have negatively affected community resilience and increased their vulnerability.

AbstractThe impacts of climate change are already being felt on human and environmental systems, with the brunt of the impacts being felt by communities in the Global South, particularly small-holder farmers due to their poverty levels and greater direct dependency on natural resources for their livelihoods. Hence, there is a need to understand how to build small-holder farmers’ resilience to climate change. Climate change adaptation strategies need to build livelihood resilience in the face of climate change as well as address the factors that contribute to farmers’ vulnerability. This chapter draws from a mixed-method study conducted in three villages each in a different agro-ecological zone in the Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania, to explore how to build farmers’ livelihood resilience through addressing factors that increase livelihood vulnerability to climate change. These farmers’ livelihoods are vulnerable because of both the impacts of climate variability on the farmers’ livelihood assets and certain social and environmental structures and characteristics. Building small-holder farmers’ livelihood resilience that can ensure the desired levels of livelihood outcomes in the face of climate variability and change, requires integration of strategies across household resource management as well as farm-based livelihood assets, and a holistic rather than piecemeal approach to small-holder farmers’ livelihoods.

Abstract This study examined the role of ecosystem services in enhancing climate change resilience of local communities in Ngarambe-Tapika Wildlife Management Area (WMA). The study aimed to identify forms of ecosystem services that can be gained from conservation of a WMA in relation to climate change adaptation. The design for this study adopted both a quantitative and a qualitative research approach. The study was undertaken in Ngarambe-Tapika WMA located between latitude 39° S and 39°30' S and between longitude 12°30' E and 13° E. It is located alongside the north-eastern border of the Selous Game Reserve. The area is also the home of local people whose lifestyles and livelihoods are intricately tied to the biological diversity and the functioning of this natural system. Purposive sampling was employed in selecting respondents for the household questionnaire, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. This study found that income obtained from Ngarambe-Tapika ecosystems by the communities were invested in material welfare and livelihoods that enhance resilience to climate change, primarily social services (54.9%) such as construction of houses, dispensaries and rehabilitation of the primary schools, and some of the money was spent on electricity provision for the community and energy for light and water pumps. Other benefits included employment (16.5%), protection from dangerous and problematic wildlife (14.3%) and petty business (14.3%). Generally, in Ngarambe-Tapika WMA there is a need to emphasize conservation awareness and extension programmes which advocate sustainable utilization of wildlife resources, and adopt an integrated approach of climate-smart agriculture to address the challenges related to food insecurity and climate change and variability. The latter would enable increased agricultural productivity to support equitable increases in farm incomes, improve food security and build resilience of agricultural and food security systems to adapt to climate change and variability.

Changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems. These impacts affect poor people's lives through impacts on livelihoods and the destruction of homes. In Delta State, Nigeria, the impacts of climate change are real. Adaptation has been identified as the key to reducing the impacts of climate change. However, successful adaptation depends on use of climate services. While climate services are essential to adaptation, the services do not always reach the users who need it most. This chapter analyzes factors influencing access and utilization of climate services in Delta State. The chapter utilizes the survey research while data were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. Findings show a low utilization of climate service. The determinants of access and utilization of climate services include income, educational attainments, access to ICT facilities, extension agents, and the level of local climate variability. The chapter calls for awareness creation on the importance of climate services.

Problematic harmful algal bloom is wide and tenacious, upsetting estuaries, coasts, and freshwaters system throughout the ecosphere, alongside disturbing human health, social life as well as national economy. Particular environmental factors supports growth of algal blooms, temperature always is significant when speaking about water-ecosystem. Disparity in temperature also found to affect the interaction of physical, chemical and biological parameters so it is equally imperative to consider effects of climate change, as change in climatic conditions supports unwanted growth of algae. Also inconsistency in climate equally contributes to the apparent increases of HAB, therefore effects of climate change needs to be totally comprehended along with development of the risk assessments and effective management of HABs. Increased HAB activities have a direct negative effect on ecosystems and they can frequently have a direct commercial impact on aquaculture, depending on the type of HAB. Causing economic impact also, as there is still insufficient evidence to resolve this problem. Therefore this chapter considers the effects of past, present and future climatic variability on HABs along with impacts of toxins release by them, on marine organism as well as human beings correspondingly, mitigation of HAB with help of suitable biological agents recognized.