Dissertations / Theses on the topic '190102 Ecosystem adaptation to climate change'

As urban populations continue to grow around the world, cities and their residents become increasingly vulnerable to climate change risks. Detrimental impacts on natural ecosystems have been observed in the built environment, as well as poorer quality of life. As urban areas are characterised by complex adaptive systems, the concept of ecosystem services represents an important tool for the management of urban socio-environmental quality and can be applied to climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. This thesis investigates London’s potential resilience to climate changes through ecosystem services management. In particular, the socioecological capacity of the All London Green Grid for contributing to climate change resilience via patterns of green spaces, and carbon storage and sequestration through urban street trees, will be the central focus in the research. This capacity was assessed firstly by conducting an evaluation of the landscape metrics of Greater London’s green spaces to determine the extent and quality of green infrastructure, and how this varies according to relevant socioeconomic variables. This was achieved using GIS and the spatial analysis programme FRAGSTATS. This broad-scale evaluation was then supported by greater in-depth field measurements, focusing specifically on street trees, within selected eleven Business Improvement Districts (BIDs), which are an important vehicle for the local management of the ALGG and thereby climate resilience. This local-scale assessment also incorporated greater evaluation of ecosystem service provision by vegetation, and in particular street trees and their capacity for carbon storage and sequestration. Finally, governance of green spaces within BIDs and broader understanding of resilience and climate change was assessed with qualitative research methods, including semi-structured interviews of different agents and agencies involved in the ALGG network. This included investigation of decision-makers’ perspectives on vulnerabilities and the prospects for further developing London green spaces, to determine the feasibility of different management options.

Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing civil society. Scientific evidence indicates the likelihood of greater variability and more frequent extremes of temperature and precipitation which will result in increased flood risk and corresponding social, economic and environmental impacts. Complementing more traditional structurally-based engineering interventions, an important additionaladaptation strategy is through natural flood management (NFM). NFM seeks to utilise natural processes (i.e. by promoting higher infiltration through land management practices) to attenuate flood peaks. Such measures have wider significance in the context of Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA), to deliver highly beneficial solutions as they provide important benefits in relation to runoff rates but also in terms of wider environmental aspects (e.g. water quality, biodiversity). The present study used a holistic approach to evaluate the effectiveness of NFM options in reducing the flood risk for the current and future climate with a consideration also for the wider delivery of ecosystem services. Tarland Burn catchment (NE Scotland) was used as a platform to explore individual adaptation options through woodland expansion (distinguishing between coniferous and deciduous) and drainage schemes, together with land use scenarios that explore emergent socio-economic contexts. The distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH was utilised for the analysis linking land management options with climate projections obtained from UK Climate Projections (UKCP09). Modelling results showed that the magnitude of extreme weather events is expected to increase up to the end of the century with important implications for climate adaptation strategies. Woodland expansion could help attenuate the high flows, with the benefit for flood protection significantly higher for coniferous woodland compared to deciduous woodland and up to 1.5 more if woodland is located in lowland areas. However, modelling results suggested that there are potential negative impacts of afforestation on low flows (and hence water quality) which could exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. This may become an even greater issue in the future as summers are predicted to be drier and warmer. Improving the efficiency of the drainage network was seen to reduce the high flows, though the results are marginal for the winter when most floods occur. Modelling results suggested that climate change will eventually exceed the capacity of beneficial land use change by itself (through NFM measures) to avoid significant changes on catchment hydrology. This has important implications as other complementary engineered solutions may therefore be required to counteract the adverse impacts of climate change on flood risk. Moreover, the EbA assessments results indicated that NFM options may not always be ‘win-win’ solutions as commonly advertised (McShane et al., 2011). Instead trade-offs between the delivery of different services may be required and decisions should be aimed at maximizing benefits whilst minimizing the disbenefits. This novel approach highlighted that land use change should be carefully managed and the choices about land use and flood risk should always have at their core an enhancement of landscape resilience, particularly at the catchment scale.

Ecosystem-based adaptation as a concept of adapting to the adverse effects of climate change has become a popular approach that enjoys a good reputation. However, the evidence base for it is rather thin. This thesis sets out to explore the challenges and limitations linked to projects that engage in the concept, in order to estimate the potential threat that may lie in the ignorance of them. Timescales of projects related to the concept shall be the second major focus of this thesis as it has not been sufficiently examined yet by the literature. Empirical material has been gathered and analyzed in the form of interviews with people who have been and are currently working in projects related to ecosystem-based adaptation. The results allow recommendations for the implementation of future projects, as lessons learned were identified.

Adaptation is necessary to cope with, or take advantage of, the effects of climate change on socio-ecological systems. This is especially important in the forestry sector, which is sensitive to the ecological and economic impacts of climate change, and where the adaptive decisions of owners play out over long periods of time. These decisions are subject to experienced and expected impacts, and depend upon the temporal interactions of a range of individual and institutional actors. Knowledge of, and responses to, climate change are therefore very important if forestry is to cope with, or take advantage of, the effects of climate change over longer timescales. It is important to understand the role of human behaviour and decision-making processes in the study of complex socio-ecological systems and modelling is a method that can support experiments to advance this understanding. This study is based on the development of CRAFTY-Sweden; an agent-based model that allows the exploration of Swedish land-use dynamics and adaptation to climate change through scenario analysis. In CRAFTY-Sweden, forest and farmland owners make land use and management decisions according to their objectives, management preferences and capabilities. As a result of their management and location characteristics they are able to provide ecosystem services. To explore future change, quantitative scenarios were used that considered both socio-economic development pathways and climatic change. Simulations were run under the different scenarios for the period 2010-2100, for the whole of Sweden. Furthermore, because institutions (i.e. organisations) also influence socio-ecological systems through their actions and interactions between them and with land owners and the environment, a conceptual model of institutional actions applied to socio-ecological systems was developed. The application of this conceptual model was explored through a model of institutions that can act, interact and adapt to environmental change in attempting to affect ecosystem service provision within a simple forestry governance system. I found that forestry in the future will likely be unable to meet societal demands for forest services solely on the basis of autonomous adaptation. A northward expansion of agriculture and especially of forestry proved positive for both sectors to adapt to changing conditions, under several scenarios, given the substantial land availability and the improved environmental conditions for plant growth. Legacy effects of past land-use change can have a great impact on future land-use change and adaptation processes, especially in forestry. Also, greater competition for land may lead to shorter forest rotation times. Socio-economic change and land owner behavioural differences may have a larger impact on owner competitiveness, land-use change and ecosystem service provision than climate-driven changes in land productivity. Different owner objectives and behaviour resulted in different levels of ecosystem service provision. Also, particular forest types were differently suitable for adaptation depending on the sets of objectives under which they were managed. Owners implementing particular management strategies can be differently competitive under different future scenarios, and the suitability of such strategies for adaptation is not a static, inherent characteristic of a system. Instead, it evolves in response to changing contexts that include both the external global change drivers and the internal dynamics of agent interactions. Additionally, institutional conceptual models as presented here can support better understanding of the key institutional decision-making dynamics and their consequences, endogenously, flexibly across different socio-ecological systems. Finally, study limitations, future research and the policy relevance of findings are discussed.

This Bachelor‟s thesis aims at explaining the relationship between forests and climate change, a subject that has been given a lot of attention in environmental discussions in recent years, particularly because forests are a source of carbon dioxide emissions and in the same time have the potential to mitigate climate change through carbon sequestration. However, with the importance of mitigation as a background, the focus of this study is on adaptation. The purpose is to identify mutual benefits from the diverse forest ecosystems, and examine the possible benefits from forests to the rural poor population in Tanzania, in a future scenario of increased vulnerability to climate change. The methodology for the study can be divided into two parts, one qualitative literature study and one field study in Babati District northern Tanzania, limited to interviews and excursions. This thesis gives details about the scientific projections and local perceptions of climate change and the effects of climate change. The results of the thesis highlights the importance of sustainably managed forests and agroforestry systems, which have been successful in Babati through local participation; economic incentives such as carbon credit and other payments for ecosystem services, which is a possible future extension of forestry activities; and increased integration between sectors, which make sure that adaptation within different sectors can be done simultaneously.

Ecosystem services are essential for human climate adaptation. As climate change is a direct driver of change for ecosystem service provisioning, it is of importance to care for our ecosystems to be able to cope with future challenges. Local governance has a central role in climate adaptation due to its responsibility in physical planning. To be able to plan for changes driven by climate change, a flexible, adaptive strategy is necessary. Ecosystem-based Adaptation, EbA, can provide this flexibility to an overall adaptation strategy. In this case study, the potential of EbA to help Nature-based Tourism, NbT, to adapt to a changing climate was spatially mapped to be a useful part of the basis for local physical planning. The mapping includes areas of biodiversity, water infrastructure and features that provide resilience to climate change. The results show that there are areas with potential for EbA that can address adverse effects of climate change for the NbT. These spatial mapped areas provide an instant overview of the key areas to consider when planning for climate adaptation. These mapped areas are also combined with a qualitative assessment of the potential for EbA. By providing decision-makers with information on where and how ecosystem services can assist local climate adaptation, decisions that support both the future of humanity and ecosystems are enabled. However, to reach enforcement of EbA, the knowledge has to be included in binding documents such as detail plans.

Les changements environnementaux globaux (CEG) menacent les écosystèmes marins et les populations humaines qui en dépendent. Une recherche scientifique croissante tente d’évaluer les impacts des changements environnementaux sur les écosystèmes et les services écosystémiques, notamment pour guider les politiques publiques. Focalisée sur les systèmes socio-écologiques (SSE) des récifs coralliens, cette thèse analyse les approches proposées dans la littérature et conçoit de nouvelles méthodologies, évaluations et indicateurs pour guider la science et l’action publique. Nous montrons qu’une stratégie de recherche régionale doit prendre en compte la complexité et produire de meilleures projections des impacts des CEG sur les récifs coralliens et les services associés. Nous cartographions des indicateurs à l’échelle globale pour évaluer où la dépendance des sociétés aux récifs coralliens sera affectée par les menaces globales dues à un niveau de CO2 élevé. Nous analysons comment la science répond aux impacts des CEG sur les récifs coralliens et nous identifions des pistes pour la recherche. Enfin, nous opérationnalisons une facette de la vulnérabilité, la capacité d’adaptation écologique, pour servir d’outil pour évaluer l’effectivité des actions locales dans un contexte de CEG. Ce manuscrit contribue à des avancées théoriques et méthodologiques sur l’évaluation des impacts, de la vulnérabilité et de l’adaptation aux CEG. Il développe des approches interdisciplinaires pour l’étude des SSE et des services écosystémiques, ciblant les récifs coralliens comme étude de cas. Enfin, il analyse l’émergence d’un champ scientifique sur les solutions aux GEC pour les récifs coralliens
Global environmental change (GEC) in the ocean threatens marine ecosystems and the people who depend on them. A growing scientific effort is attempting to evaluate the impacts of environmental changes on ecosystems and ecosystem services and guide policy-making to respond to this global issue. Focusing on social-ecological systems of coral reefs, this thesis critically reviews the approaches put forward in the literature to understand gaps and to design new methodologies, assessments, and indicators to guide science and policy. Our findings show that a regionally targeted strategy of research should address complexity and provide more realistic projections about the impacts of GEC on coral reefs ecosystems and ecosystem services. We map global-scale indicators to understand where human dependence on coral reef ecosystems will be affected by globally-driven threats expected in a high-CO2 world. We then analyze how science is responding to the challenge posed by GEC on coral reefs and to identify gaps in research.Finally, we attempt to operationalize an overlooked component of vulnerability assessments, ecological adaptive capacity, to serve as a tool to help assess where local actions can be effective in the context of climate change. This manuscript contributes to theoretical and methodological advances to evaluate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to GEC. It develops interdisciplinary approaches for the study of social-ecological systems and ecosystem services, targeting coral reefs as a case study. Finally, it synthesizes critically the emergence of a scientific field on solutions to GEC for coral reef social-ecological systems

A key challenge for sustainable urban development is to deal with the effects of climate change. To approach this issue, ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA), i.e. the use of ecosystem services for climate adaptation, has been promoted by both scholars and practitioners. In this context, the thesis addresses two research questions: how EbA is included in strategic climate adaptation planning and how EbA is implemented in practice. To tackle these topics, the study uses a multiple case study design, where the process from strategic planning to its implementation is investigated in two Northern European cities: Copenhagen and Malmö. To collect in-depth data, qualitative methods were used: a document analysis and semi-structured interviews with planning officials were conducted. The findings of the study show that there is a high degree of awareness of the different EbA measures, their potential role to address climate change effects and their co-benefits in climate adaptation plans. However, the practical implementation of the plans was executed only at a project-based scale to address some climate change impacts rather than holistically and on a regional level. The main EbA measure that was used was the expansion and transformation of public green space. The thesis concludes that a more comprehensive approach concerning the use of EbA is needed and further mainstreaming is highly required.
En viktig utmaning för hållbar stadsutveckling är att adressera effekterna av de stundande klimatförändringar. För att ta sig an denna fråga har användningen av ekosystembaserad anpassning (EbA), dvs. användningen av ekosystemtjänster för klimatanpassning, främjats av både forskare och utövare. I detta sammanhang behandlar studien två forskningsfrågor: hur EbA ingår i strategisk klimatanpassningsplanering och hur EbA implementeras i praktiken. Studien innehåller en fallstudie- design, där processen från strategisk planering till dess genomförande undersöks i två nordeuropeiska städer: Köpenhamn och Malmö. För att samla in data användes två kvalitativa metoder: en dokumentanalys och semistrukturerade intervjuer med tjänstepersoner på kommuner. Resultaten från studien visar att det finns en hög grad av medvetenhet om de olika EbA åtgärderna, deras potentiella roll för att hantera klimatförändringseffekter och deras synergier i klimatanpassningsplaner. Det praktiska genomförandet av planerna utfördes endast i en projektbaserad skala för att ta med vissa klimatförändringseffekter snarare än på ett holistiskt vis och på en större regional nivå. Den viktigaste EbA åtgärden som användes var utbyggnaden eller omvandlingen av de offentliga grönytorna. Sammanfattningsvis har studien visat på att det finns behov av ett mer heltäckande tillvägagångssätt och ytterligare integrering beträffande användandet av EbA krävs.

Projektionen der Effekte von Umweltveränderungen auf sozio-ökologische Systeme sind ein fester Bestandteil der Nachhaltigkeitsforschung. Solche Projektionen beruhen auf Modellen und Modellketten. In jedem Modellierungsschritt werden modelspezifische Unsicherheiten bezüglich Parameterwerten, Eingabedaten und Modelstruktur akkumuliert und führen zu einer Kaskade der Unsicherheiten. Ziel dieser Dissertation ist es, die Kaskade der Unsicherheiten der Wirkungen von Umweltveränderungen am Beispiel der Waldökosystemmodellierung zu behandeln. Dies führt zu zwei übergreifenden Forschungsfragen: 1. Wie beeinflussen unterschiedliche Typen von Unsicherheiten die Projektionen der Wirkungen sich verändernder Umweltbedingungen auf Waldökosysteme? 2. Gibt es einen übergeordneten Rahmen für nachhaltiges Ressourcenmanagement in sozio-ökologischen Systemen, in den Unsicherheiten eingebettet werden können? Diese Dissertation zeigt, dass die Produktivität von Wäldern unter Bedingungen des Klimawandels in kühleren und feuchteren Regionen zunehmen und in wärmeren und trockeneren abnehmen kann. Diese Ergebnisse sind qualitativ konsistent über eine Vielzahl von Modellstrukturen, Klimaszenarien und Modelparameter, die jedoch quantitativ zu nennenswerten Unsicherheiten in Projektionen führen. Diese Arbeit zeigt, dass es Methoden gibt, um bestimmte Unsicherheiten einzuschätzen, aber auch, dass viele Klimawirkungsstudien die Wirkung von Veränderungen im Mittelwert von Klimavariablen betrachten und nicht die von Extremwerten. Außerdem zeigt diese Arbeit, dass adaptive, sektorenübergreifende Strategien für ein nachhaltiges Ressourcenmanagement existieren, die mit Unsicherheiten von Klimawirkungen umgehen können und nachhaltige, regionale Entwicklungen fördern. Die Kaskade der Unsicherheiten ist eine zentrale Herausforderung für nachhaltiges Ressourcenmanagement. Eine systematischere Behandlung von Unsicherheiten ermöglicht robuste Projektionen der Wirkungen sich verändernder Umweltbedingungen.
Projecting the effects of environmental change on social-ecological systems is a crucial component of sustainability science. Such projections rely on models and modeling chains. At each modeling step, model-specific uncertainties about parameter values, input data or structure accumulate and lead to a cascade of uncertainty. The aim of this thesis is to explore the cascade of uncertainties in responses to environmental change in a structured way at the example of forest ecosystem modeling. This leads to two overarching research questions: 1. How do different types of uncertainties affect projections of the effects of environmental change on forest ecosystems? 2. What is the general framework of sustainable natural resource management in coupled social-ecological systems in which uncertainties need to be integrated? This thesis shows that forest productivity under climate change may increase in cool and wet regions and decrease in already warm and dry regions. These findings are robust despite large differences in model structure, climate change scenarios and model parameters that induce considerable uncertainty into future projections. It also stresses that there are methods available to assess uncertainties but also that many climate change impact studies have focused on testing the response of plants to changes in mean climate rather than climatic extremes. Finally, this thesis shows that adaptive, cross-sectoral natural resource management strategies exist that accommodate uncertain impacts of environmental and societal change and foster sustainable regional development. I conclude that the cascade of uncertainty challenges sustainable natural resource management and that a more systematic treatment of uncertainties is strongly needed to generate robust projections of the impacts of environmental change. The findings of this thesis provide a general framework in which both modelers and decision-makers can integrate model results and assess their robustness.

Cuba’s expansive coral reefs and mangrove habitats provide a variety of ecosystem services to coastal communities including nursery grounds for fisheries, shoreline stability, and storm and flood protection. While Cuba’s coastal habitats are some of the most preserved in the Caribbean, they are under increasing threat of degradation from the impacts of climate change, increased tourism, and coastal development. With the goal of sustainable development, Cubans need to assess the storm and flood protection benefits these coastal habitats provide, and integrate this information into future expansion and management plans within the National Protected Areas System (SNAP). Using the open source software, Integrated Valuation on Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), a national-scale coastal vulnerability model was developed to provide quantitative estimates of coastal exposure and the protective role of coastal habitats during storm events. This model integrates storm information with bathymetry and coastline geomorphology, coupled with coastal habitat data to estimate the influence of these habitats in reducing vulnerability to storms and flooding. By combining these results with human population data, the model identifies where coastal communities are most vulnerable to wave energy and storm surge, and where coral reefs and mangroves provide the most protection by reducing impacts to these communities. We classify these regions as areas of conservation priority. We observed that fifty percent of the areas identified as areas of conservation priority lack any form of environmental protection. We recommend including these key habitats within the National System of Protected Areas. This will permit decision makers to more effectively concentrate restoration and conservation efforts in areas where people and natural resources will experience greater benefit from valuable ecological services.

In rural areas of least developed countries, the preparation of meals remains the predominant energy consuming activity. Cooking is mostly performed with firewood – using the ancient “technology” of the 3-stone fire. This practice results in numerous challenges that hinder the transformation envisioned by the Millennium Development Goals and it therefore contributes towards slowing the development of rural areas. Activities focussing on amending this status-quo can be termed insufficient in scope- and sustainability. The main deficiencies of most projects are that the prime focus of the mainstream of these endeavours has been on demand side management, mainly performed by disseminating cookstoves, and that there has been little innovation in respect to raising stove adoption rates. As the strict efficiency focus obviously only captures one side of the problem – merely focussing on treating symptoms rather than providing an effective solution, this thesis stresses the need for a paradigm shift towards more holistic interventions. This work very much focuses on the topic of stove adoption. This is a complex topic - very much linked to attaining behavioural change. Deliberations concluded that the identification of enabling factors for adoption, which can be termed a prerequisite for developing sustainable methods for stove projects, requires a mix of instruments. To suffice the required data demand the initial literature review was complemented by a thorough assessment of the kitchen environment and the cooking behaviour of stove owners. The fieldwork concentrated on 210 beneficiaries of an efficient cookstove project. The applied methods included interviews, observations and pictorial documentation. As a remedy to the challenges and current shortcomings identified during field work and literature review, the author herein develops a novel and more holistic implementation strategy for stove projects – the so- called 3-Step approach. This is based on the simultaneous implementation of availing cookstoves, building capacity in respect to kitchen management, as well as performing small-scale household level tree planting. The research, which further encompassed the piloting of the 3-Step approach, led to the overall conclusion that the proposed increase in project scope holds a multitude of opportunities for improving the livelihoods of the rural target groups. The main impact of this innovative strategy lies in a decrease of average transaction costs as well as in a considerable increase in project sustainability. As will be extensively elaborated, the former is achieved by a more effective utilisation of the extensive infrastructure of trained artisans. The latter refers to the expected income increase on household level, as well as to improvements in environmental- and human health. In combination these enable rural communities to better adapt to climate change.

Increasingly unpredictable, extreme and erratic rainfall with higher temperatures threatens to undermine the adaptive capacity of food systems and ecological resilience of smallholder landscapes. Despite growing concern, land managers still lack quantitative techniques to collect empirical data about the potential impact of climatic variability and change. This thesis aims to assess how ecosystem services and function and how this links with biodiversity and human wellbeing in smallholder agro-ecosystems in a changing climate. To this end, rather than relying on scenarios or probabilistic modelling, space was used as a proxy for time to compare states in disparate climatic conditions. Furthermore, an integrated methodological framework to assess ecosystem services at the field and landscape level was developed and operationalised, the results of which can be modelled with measures of wellbeing. Various multidisciplinary analytical tools were utilised, including ecological and socio-economic surveys, biological assessments, participatory open enquiry, and documenting ethnobotanical knowledge. The study was located within monsoon rice farms in the Terai Plains of Nepal, and dry season vegetable farms in Northern Ghana. Sites were selected that are climatically and culturally diverse to enable comparative analysis, with application to broad areas of adaptive planning. The linkages that bring about biophysical and human changes are complex and operate through social, political, economic and demographic drivers, making attribution extremely challenging. Nevertheless, it was demonstrated that within hotter and drier conditions in Ghana long-tongued pollinators and granivores, important for decomposition processes and pollination services, are more abundant in farms. Results further indicated that in cooler and drier conditions in Nepal, the taxonomic diversity of indigenous and close relative plant species growing in and around farms, important for the provisioning of ecosystem services, decreases. All other things equal, in both Nepal and Ghana findings indicate that overall human wellbeing may be adversely effected in hotter conditions, with a potentially significantly lower yields, fewer months of the year in which food is available, higher exposure to natural hazards and crop loss, unemployment, and psychological anxiety. Yet, surveys indicate smallholders continue to maintain a fair diversity of species in and around farms, which may allow them to secure basic necessities from provisioning ecosystem services. Moreover, farmers may employ adaptive strategies such as pooling labour and food sharing more frequently, and may have greater access to communication, technology, and infrastructure. Novel methodological and empirical contributions of this research offer predictive insights that could inform innovations in climate-smart agricultural practice and planning.

L’objectif de cette thèse est d’étudier les interactions allélopathiques dans la forêt de chêne pubescente en région méditerranéenne et d’envisager comment ces interactions peuvent être affectées par le changement climatique. Nous avons montré que l'arbre dominant Q. pubescens et ses espèces compagnes A. monspessulanum et C. coggygria ont des potentialités allélopathiques différentes en fonction du stade phénologique des feuilles ce qui pourrait affecter la germination et la croissance des plantes herbacées de sous-étage. Ces différences d'effet allélopathique peuvent résulter non seulement de différences dans la quantité des composés allélopathiques produits, mais aussi de différences qualitatives observées en fonction du stade phénologique. Cela suggère que l’effet allélopathique puisse varier dans le temps de manière à correspondre au stade de développement des plantes herbacées cibles. Sur l’une des plantes cibles utilisées dans les bioessais, les effets allélopathiques ont d’autre part été accentués en changeant les conditions environnementales (hydriques et/ou thermiques) ce qui suggère des modifications éventuelles des potentiels allélopathiques des plantes à attendre avec le changement climatique. Nos résultats en pépinière ont montré le potentiel allélopathique de cotinus et pinus sur la croissance des plantules de chêne, quelques soient les conditions d’arrosage (stressé ou non stressé. En affectant notamment la biomasse du système racinaire dont la croissance est un élément clé des espèces méditerranéennes pour résister à la sécheresse estivale prolongée, ces interactions pourraient jouer un rôle important dans les processus de régénération du chêne pubescent
The aim of this thesis is to study allelopathic interactions in the downy oak forest in the mediterranean region and to consider how these interactions can be affected by climate change. We have shown that the dominant tree Q. pubescens and its companion species A. monspessulanum and C. coggygria have different allelopathic potentialities, evaluated in vitro on herbaceous target plants, depending on the phenological stage of the leaves, which could in natura affect the germination and growth of understory herbaceous plants. These differences in allelopathic effect may result not only from differences in the quantity of allelopathic compounds produced, but also from qualitative differences observed as a function of the phenological stage. This suggests that the allelopathic effect may vary over time to match the stage of development of the target herbaceous plants. On one of the target plants used in the bioassays, the allelopathic effects were further accentuated by changing the water and / or thermal conditions which suggests possible modifications of the allelopathic potential of the plants to be expected with climate change.Our results in the plant nursery showed the allelopathic potential of cotinus and pinus on the growth of oak seedlings, whatever the watering conditions (stressed or unstressed). By affecting in particular the biomass of the root system, the growth of which is a key element of the mediterranean species to resist the prolonged summer drought, these interactions could play an important role in the regeneration processes of downy oak

Les écosystèmes jouent un rôle important dans les stratégies visant à faire face au changement climatique parce qu'ils s'attaquent à la fois à ses causes et à ses effets grâce à leurs services écosystémiques. Les écosystèmes agissent comme des filets de sécurité pour les communautés rurales et comme tampons contre les impacts climatique en fournissant des services d'approvisionnement (par exemple la nourriture et le bois) et des services de régulation (par exemple la régulation de l'eau et le contrôle de l'érosion). De plus, la séquestration du carbone par les écosystèmes contribue à atténuer le changement climatique. La gestion des terres affecte les services écosystémiques (SE) de diverses manières et, en raison de l’existence de compromis (« tradeoffs »), peut améliorer l'offre d'un SE au détriment des autres. Par exemple, la conversion des forêts à l'agriculture pour augmenter la production alimentaire peut dégrader la régulation de l'eau. Bien que les compromis soient reconnus, les connaissances sur la façon dont les changements dans la gestion des terres affectent les SE et leurs bénéficiaires sont encore limitées. Cette recherche vise à améliorer notre compréhension de la façon dont les changements dans la gestion des terres influent sur la résilience des communautés locales face aux aléas climatiques et sur la fourniture de SE aux niveaux régional et mondial. Nous avons combiné des méthodes multidisciplinaires et participatives pour analyser les changements dans la gestion des forêts et des arbres dans les réponses des communautés locales aux aléas climatiques. Dans quatre communautés rurales touchées par des inondations et des sécheresses dans des paysages forestiers tropicaux en Indonésie, nous avons inventorié les forêts, enquêté les ménages, discuté avec des groupes focaux et analysé des images satellite. Pour analyser comment les SE sont affectés par les changements dans la gestion des terres, nous avons développé un cadre conceptuel pour rendre compte des multiples contributions humaines dans la fourniture des SE. Les résultats ont montré comment les communautés ont utilisé les écosystèmes dans leurs réponses aux impacts climatiques et comment les changements dans la gestion des terres ont affecté la fourniture de SE. Dans les sites d'étude les moins forestiers, les communautés avaient les plus grands besoins de SE forestiers pour les aider à s'adapter à la sécheresse. Entre 5 et 45% des ménages ont rapporté au moins une stratégie d'adaptation basée sur des produits issus des forêts et des arbres, par exemple la récolte du bois ou la collecte des feuilles, du caoutchouc et des légumes sauvages. Plusieurs stratégies d'anticipation au niveau communautaire visaient à protéger ou à restaurer les forêts afin de réduire les impacts des sécheresses et des inondations sur le sol et l'eau. Les communautés n'étaient pas des bénéficiaires passifs des SE, mais ont contribué activement à leur fourniture de multiples façons. Elles ont géré les terres, mobilisé du capital humain ou manufacturé (par exemple les savoirs, les engrais), distribué les bénéfices et apprécié leur contribution au bien-être. Ces actions ont déterminé qui bénéficie des écosystèmes et comment. Les apports humains dans la fourniture des SE dépendaient de règles communautaires (par exemple, restrictions de coupe de bois ou taxes), du capital (par exemple moyens de transport ou d'irrigation), des valeurs (par exemple les perceptions de la dégradation de l'environnement) et des facteurs spatiaux (par exemple la localisation des habitations et des champs dans les zones sujettes aux catastrophes). Une meilleure compréhension des apports humains dans la fourniture des SE et des compromis entre services peut guider la conception de solutions basées sur les écosystèmes pour renforcer la résilience des populations locales aux risques climatiques tout en fournissant d'autres bénéfices globaux pour le développement durable
Ecosystems play an important role in strategies for facing climate change because they address both its causes and effects through the delivery of ecosystem services. Ecosystems act as safety nets for rural livelihoods and as buffers against damages by supplying provisioning services (e.g., food and timber) and regulating services (e.g., water regulation and erosion control). In addition, carbon sequestration by ecosystems contributes to mitigate climate change. Land management affects ecosystem services in diverse ways and, because of trade-offs, can enhance the supply of one ecosystem service of interest at the expense of others. For example, the conversion of forests to agriculture to increase food production may degrade water regulation. Although trade-offs are recognized, knowledge on how changes in land management affect ecosystem services and their beneficiaries is still limited. This research aims to increase our understanding of how land management changes impact the resilience of local communities to climate hazards and the provision of ecosystem services at regional and global level. We combined multi-disciplinary and participatory methods to analyze changes in the management of forests and trees in the responses of local communities to climate hazards. Across four rural communities affected by floods and droughts in tropical forest landscapes in Indonesia, we inventoried forests, surveyed households, discussed with focus groups, and analysed satellite images. To analyse how ecosystem services are affected by changes in land management, we developed a conceptual framework to account for the multiple human contributions in the delivery of ecosystem services. The findings showed how communities used ecosystems in their responses to climatic impacts and how changes in land management affected the supply of ecosystem services. In the study sites with least forests, communities had the highest needs for forest ecosystem services to help them adapt to drought. Between 5 and 45% of the households reported at least one coping strategy based on products from forests and trees, for example harvesting timber or collecting leaves, rubber, and wild vegetables. Several anticipatory strategies at the community level aimed to protect or restore forests to reduce the impacts of droughts and floods on soil and water. Communities were not passive beneficiaries of ecosystem services but actively contributed to their delivery in multiple ways. They managed land, mobilized human and human-made assets (e.g. skills, fertilizers), allocated benefits, and appreciated their contribution to well-being. Such actions determined who benefited from ecosystems and how. The human contributions in the delivery of ecosystem services depended on community rules (e.g. logging restrictions or taxes), assets (e.g. access to transportation or irrigation systems), values (e.g. perception of environmental degradation), and spatial factors (e.g., location of houses and crops in disaster prone areas). The land management strategies of local communities in response to climate hazards also affected the delivery of ecosystem services at regional and global scales, through changes in biodiversity, water regulation, and carbon sequestration. An improved understanding of human inputs and trade-offs in the delivery of ecosystem services can inform the design of sound ecosystem-based solutions for strengthening the resilience of local people to climate hazards while providing other global benefits for sustainable development

According to the European Commission’s working definition of Nature Based Solutions (NBS), these are diverse solutions inspired and supported by nature, delivering co-benefits in the triple bottom line. Properly implemented, NBS work as systemic approach to deliver urban ecosystem services (UES) through Urban Green Infrastructure (UGI). To test the effectiveness of NBS in urban climate resilience strategies and to mainstream them towards a 2050 scenario, the H2020 UNaLab project provides cities across the world with know-how, tools, technical assistance and network support. To address the challenge’s complexity, UNaLab calls for the participation of diverse stakeholders in prospective planning exercises following the UNaLab Roadmapping Methodology (URM). The URM has theoretical potential to create Cooperative Institutions to govern the common-wealth based on the co-produced ES at UGI, becoming Urban Green Commons (UGC). The present research studies this potential in practice; assessing whether it enables stakeholder cooperation beyond the planning stage, thus, providing an alternative approach to producing the urban space. Surveys and interviews with URM practitioners allowed to assess the implementation of the URM and its potential for cooperative engagement. Results from two case studies show that there are no particular features of the first stage of the methodology that sustains the claims for such potential. However, it also pointed at the importance of soft-skills for facilitation to enable stakeholder participation and visual media to support sense-making, and areas of opportunity such as a methodical approach to address biases in stakeholder selection and allowing participants to influence the URM activities to locally-attune them, as relevant to realise the methodology’s potential to enable the collective action to use the NBS approach as a frame to turn the UGI into UGC.
De acordo com a definição de trabalho da Comissão Europeia de Soluções Baseadas na Natureza (SBN), estas são diversas soluções inspiradas e apoiadas pela natureza, proporcionando co-benefícios sociais, ambientais e económicos. Corretamente implementado, as NBS funcionam como uma abordagem sistémica para fornecer serviços ecossistémicos urbanos (SEU) através da Infraestrutura Verde Urbana (IVU). Para testar a eficácia do NBS em estratégias de resiliência climática urbana e integrá-las a um cenário de 2050, o projeto H2020 UNaLab oferece às cidades em todo o mundo know-how, ferramentas, assistência técnica e suporte de rede. Para abordar a complexidade do desafio, o UNaLab apela à participação de diversas partes interessadas em exercícios de planeamento prospectivo, seguindo a metodologia Roadmapping de UnaLab (MRU). O URM tem potencial teórico para criar Instituições Cooperativas para governar a riqueza comum baseada nos SEU co-produzidos na IVU, em espaços verdes comuns (EVC). A presente pesquisa estuda esse potencial na prática. Pretende avaliar se permite a cooperação das partes interessadas além do estágio de planeamento, proporcionando, assim, uma abordagem alternativa para a produção do espaço urbano. Pesquisas e entrevistas com profissionais da MRU permitiram avaliar a implementação da MRU e seu potencial para o envolvimento cooperativo. Os resultados dos dois estudos de caso mostram que não existem características específicas decorrentes da primeira etapa da MRU que sustentem as reivindicações por tal potencial. Entretanto, os resultados mostram também a importância das soft-skills como potenciadoras da participação das partes interessadas e a media visual para apoiar a construção de sentido. Existem áreas de oportunidade no processo, como uma abordagem metódica na seleção de stakeholders e permitir que os participantes influenciem as atividades da URM de modo a harmonizá-las localmente. Estas recomendações são relevantes para realizar o potencial da MRU e permitir que a ação coletiva use as SBN como para transformar a IVU em EVC.
Mestrado em Estudos Ambientais

>Coastal and marine resources have been in global decline the past three decades. Research suggests that the decline is due to an undervaluation of ecosystem services. The Natural Capital Project (Natcap) has developed models to assess the impact of human activities on the sustained delivery of ecosystem services within terrestrial and marine environments. With the use of Natcap models, this case study (located at Cox Bay, Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada), examined coastal protection services provided by nearshore habitats, and provides an economic valuation of these services. The model results indicate that nearshore habitats do play a role in reducing coastal vulnerability and coastal erosion, with an "avoided damages" cost of $1 million. Sand dunes provided the greatest amount of coastal protection, whereas seagrasses were found to have a negligible effect. These outcomes can inform policy and decision makers about trade-offs regarding habitat protection, coastal development and climate change adaptation.

In 2010-2011 Australia experienced its most expensive floods in history with costs to insurers and state and federal governments exceeding A$10 billion. Climate and population changes are likely to increase future flood threats and economists estimate that by 2050, even without factoring in climate change, Australia’s natural disaster damage bill could reach $33 billion per year. Flood management is thus a key area for improving adaptive capacity. While the causes of flooding are well-known, effective solutions have proved elusive and some flood management options may be maladaptive in the longer term. There were contradictions in flood management literature. Some sources categorized structural measures such as dykes and levees as adaptation measures. Others warned about their negative impacts. Meanwhile, innovative approaches used overseas appeared little known or used in Australia. Although structural measures were often criticized in adaptation literature, there was a lack of guidance about how to reduce reliance on them. Similarly, resilience researchers with a social-ecological systems perspective argued the need to identify policy and institutional interventions that would make it possible to move from undesirable to more desirable resilience domains. The challenge was therefore to determine how best to adapt to increasing flood risk, and how to facilitate the adoption of adaptive approaches. A key question was whether adaptive approaches used elsewhere were transferrable to Australia. Given the dominance of resilience theory in modern disaster management, a related research aim was to determine whether or not disaster resilience policy was likely to achieve adaptive outcomes. Literature review was the primary research method, supplemented with semi-structured interviews. Sources included recent flood reviews, academic literature, policy and legal documents. These were used to develop comparative case studies from China, The Netherlands, the United States and Australia. This was extended to cover global organizations for the resilience component of the work. Data analysis drew on literature relating to adaptation, resilience, comparative public policy, institutional theory and emergency management. Resilience interpretations were identified in a systematic way using a modified emergency management framework, complemented with narratives. Results revealed that resilience interpretations varied according to country, with Australia tending to be the least adaptive and the Netherlands the most. This reflects changes in attitudes towards structural mitigation. While support for structural mitigation remains strong in Australia, recent flood events in other countries have exposed its weaknesses. This has resulted in a shift to reduce levee dependency, accompanied by support for alternatives such as ecosystem based measures and development relocation. Such measures encounter significant barriers in Australia, making policy transfer problematic. Nevertheless, case studies revealed opportunities to improve program implementation, and investigation of path dependency associated with structural mitigation identified opportunities to alter feedbacks. Regarding application of resilience theory to disaster management, it was found that while resilience is a useful concept for researchers, there are problems when it is operationalised. A better focus for practitioners would be to negotiate long-term adaptation pathways.

Sustainability of biophysical soil and water conservation measures undertaken on communal land remains a challenge. This research was conducted in the two watersheds of Legambo district, Ethiopia, using a conservation project implemented as disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The study examined relevance and appropriateness of conservation measures and identified factors affecting sustainability. Findings show that population growth is high and crop production is the major source of income for all households. Crop income levels varied significantly (P<<0.01) with wealth status of households. Droughts, floods, crop diseases and frost are hazards that frequently occur in the area. Some conservation measures implemented were considered by communities as inappropriate. Low community participation, poor planning and unclear objectives and use rights, weak enforcement of by-laws and lack of maintenance of structures are the major challenges. Integrating family planning, enhancing participation of women, clarifying responsibilities and benefit sharing arrangements, enforcement of rules and building capacity are suggested to improve effectiveness and sustainability of conservation measures
Environmental Sciences
M. Sc. (Environmental Management)