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Zeitschriftenartikel zum Thema "Which represent the basis for the analytical part"

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Koreneva, Elena. „ANALYSIS OF COMBINED PLATES WITH ALLOWANCE FOR CONTACT WITH ELASTIC FOUNDATION“. International Journal for Computational Civil and Structural Engineering 15, Nr. 4 (29.12.2019): 83–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.22337/2587-9618-2019-15-4-83-87.

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The paper covers the problems of combined plates with circular base and consisting of a few sections with different laws of thickness variation. Analytical methods of analysis of similar structures are not yet devel­oped. The present work suggests the analytical method for solving of the stated problems, the contact with the elas­tic subgrade is also considered. The above-mentioned approach is shown on the example of the analysis of the bot­tom of the cylindrical reservoir, resting on the elastic subgrade. The inner part of this construction is represented by the ring plate of variable thickness which increases along the direction from the internal boundary. The outer part is represented by the ring plate of the constant thickness. The influence of the elastic basis and the upper part of the reservoir is taken into consideration. The solutions for stresses and deflections of the combined plate are given in closed form in terms of Bessel functions. The conditions of the plate’s sections conjugation are fulfilled.
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de Melo Resende, Viviane. „Discursive representation and violation of homeless people’s rights: Symbolic violence in Brazilian online journalism“. Discourse & Communication 10, Nr. 6 (07.11.2016): 596–613. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1750481316674778.

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This article is part of the research project ‘Representação midiática da violação de direitos e da violência contra pessoas em situação de rua no jornalismo on-line’, associated with Red Latinoamericana de Análisis Crítico del Discurso de la Extrema Pobreza (REDLAD), and focuses upon the ways in which electronic news media represent homeless people in Brazil. The focus is a pair of texts, related through internal hyperlinks, about the controversy concerning the installation of a social center in a middle-class neighborhood in central Sao Paulo. The texts are analyzed on the theoretical basis of critical discourse analysis (CDA) and considering the following analytical categories: metaphor, representation of social actors and intertextuality. Analyses show a scenario of ‘invasion by unwelcome people’, who are not perceived as rights holders, but as a threat to the rights of others.
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Gritsenko, V. V., O. S. Pavlova, N. V. Tkachenko, S. A. Usubian, O. E. Khukhlaev und V. A. Shorohova. „The analysis of foreign empirical models of intercultural competence and methods for its evaluation (Part 2)“. Современная зарубежная психология 9, Nr. 3 (2020): 108–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.17759/jmfp.2020090310.

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The article is the second analytical review about foreign empirical models of intercultural competence and psychodiagnostic methods developed on their basis, which have been tested for reliability and validity in foreign psychology. Here the analysis is presented of five approaches to intercultural competence and the results of its research. This article also describes the structure of subject-oriented, i.e. focused dominantly on the assessment of intercultural traits, or intercultural relations and worldviews, or intercultural possibilities, and mixed models, i.e. combined character traits, worldviews and possibilities. It is emphasized that the complexity of mixed models makes it possible to consider individual components of cross-cultural competence not as independent predictors of the effectiveness of cross-cultural efficiency, but in their relationship. This raises the question of the ratio of these components, their mutual conditionality and impact on each other and on intercultural competence in general, which has not yet been properly answered in science and whose resolution represents a promising direction for future research in this area.
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Gómez‐Treviño, Enrique, Francisco J. Esparza und Sóstenes Méndez‐Delgado. „New theoretical and practical aspects of electromagnetic soundings at low induction numbers“. GEOPHYSICS 67, Nr. 5 (September 2002): 1441–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1190/1.1512744.

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This paper presents a theoretical yet practical study of electromagnetic (EM) soundings at low induction numbers for vertical and horizontal magnetic dipoles. The physical model is a heterogeneous half‐space with arbitrary vertical conductivity variations. The study comprises a novel approach for solving forward problems, analytical formulas for inversion, and a practical algorithm for recovering conductivity variations from field measurements. The basis of the theoretical approach is a series representation of the EM field in terms of ascending powers of frequency. At low induction numbers only two terms are required. When substituted into Maxwell's equations, one term in the series can be obtained in terms of the other. Furthermore, if the electrical conductivity varies only with depth, the imaginary part of the field can be obtained from its real part through a differential equation. The real part, which corresponds to zero frequency, plays the role of a distributed source for the frequency‐dependent imaginary part. In the case of vertical magnetic dipoles, the approach applies directly to the real and imaginary components of the magnetic field, while for horizontal dipoles one must use the Hertz potential, but the procedure is exactly the same. In each case this leads to a statement of the forward problem as the solution of a real differential equation. The solutions are integral expressions valid for arbitrary conductivity profiles. Assuming that these expressions represent integral equations for conductivity, analytical inverse formulas are derived for both vertical and horizontal dipoles. These formulas ensure a unique recovery of the conductivity profile under ideal conditions. An algorithm based on linear programming offers a variety of practical advantages for the inversion of field data. Numerical experiments and applications to field data illustrate the performance of the algorithm.
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Caravale, Giovanni A. „Demand Conditions and the Interpretation of Ricardo“. Journal of the History of Economic Thought 16, Nr. 2 (1994): 229–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1053837200001966.

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Kenneth J. Arrow's recent article on Ricardian theory (Arrow 1991) represents the occasion for a renewed discussion of the basic building blocks of the classics' analytical scheme and of the role of demand conditions in this context. Arrow's argument pivots around two ideas: that Ricardo's theory is built without any reference to demand, and that the role of demand can be conceived of only within the logical context of neoclassical demand functions, which are absent in Ricardo, thus making his theoretical scheme irremediably weak. These ideas form the basis of a drastically dichotomized representation on the part of Arrow of current interpretations of Ricardo. On the one hand are the neoclassical-type views, epitomized by his own position, with their emphasis on the allocation problem; on the other hand are the purely cost-oriented neo-Ricardian interpretations, with their strongly Marxist ideological bias.
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FAGANEL, ROMAN, und DRAGOMIR ČEVRIZ. „ANALITIČNI PRISTOP K NAČRTOVANJU VIROV IN SPREJEMANJU ODLOČITEV V OBRAMBNEM SISTEMU“. SECURITY FORCES OF THE FUTURE/VARNOSTNE SILE PRIHODNOSTI, VOLUME 2017 ISSUE 19/4 (15.11.2017): 91–109. http://dx.doi.org/10.33179/bsv.99.svi.11.cmc.19.4.5.

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Povzetek V prispevku opredeljujemo ožji koncept načrtovanja obrambnih virov (poudarek je na finančnih virih), ki temelji na dejanjih in rezultatih ter presega odločitve le na podlagi intuicije za doseganje boljših rezultatov pri odločanju, razporejanju in načrtovanju vojaških sredstev ter zmogljivosti. Viri v sodobnih vojaških organizacijah so omejeni in prav njihova načrtna/namenska dodelitev in racionalna izraba oziroma poraba predstavlja velik izziv sodobnega načrtovanja. Za doseganje optimalnih rezultatov je zelo pomembno razumevanje in poznavanje obstoječih virov, njihovo razporejanje in upravljanje znotraj vojaške organizacije. Nepravilno razporejeni viri prinašajo dodatne negativne posledice, kot so višji stroški, tehnološki zaostanek in zmanjševanje možnosti reševanja življenj. Z analitičnim pristopom upravljanja se oblikuje temeljna podlaga za raziskovanje vzrokov, procesov in pojavov odstopanj od načrtovanja virov skozi kratkoročna, srednjeročna in dolgoročna obdobja obrambnega načrtovanja. Predstavljena je metodologija procesa obrambnega načrtovanja, ki je osredotočena predvsem na kvantitativne pristope kot komplementarni del kvalitativnemu segmentu raziskovanja. Ključne besede: Upravljanje virov, intuicija, analiza stroškov in koristi, ekonomska analiza, matematični analitični modeli, proces odločanja. Abstract In the article, we define a narrow concept of defence expenditure planning (with the emphasis on financial resources), which is based on the acts and results and exceeds intuition-based decisions and achieve better results in decision making, allocating and planning of military assets and capabilities. Resources in modern military organizations are limited and it is their planned or eligible allocation and rational use and consumption that represent a major challenge in modern planning. In order to achieve optimum results, understanding and awareness of the existing resources, their allocation and management within a military organization are crucial. Incorrectly allocated resources bring additional adverse consequences, such as higher costs, technological backlog and reduced possibility of saving lives. An analytical management approach creates the basis for exploring the causes, processes and phenomena of deviations from resource planning through short-term, medium-term and long-term defence planning periods. The article presents the methodology of the defence planning process, which is mainly focused on quantitative approaches as a complementary part of the qualitative research segment. Key words: Resource management, intuition, cost-benefit analysis, economic analysis, mathematical analytical models, decision-making process.
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Grigaravičiūté, Sandra. „Diplomacy of the Concil of Lithuania in Entente powers“. Sabiedrība un kultūra: rakstu krājums = Society and Culture: conference proceedings, Nr. XXII (06.01.2021): 55–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.37384/sk.2020.22.055.

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The research reveals appointment, competence and type of activities of the authorized representatives of the Council of Lithuania delegated to represent the Council of Lithuania, Lithuania’s interests or affairs abroad (in neutral and “belligerent countries”) from 22 October 1917 to 11 November 1918. The Entente Powers include the United States, Great Britain, France and also Italy in some cases. Russia, which also belonged to the Entente, is left outside the scope of the research, because after Soviet Russia signed the Peace Treaty of Brest-Litovsk (3 March 1918), it did no longer fight on the side of the Entente. The research on the diplomacy of the Council of Lithuania in the Entente Powers was carried out on the basis of published (press, memoirs, published documents) and unpublished sources (from the Lithuanian Central State Archives, Manuscripts Department of the Wroblewski Library of the Lithuanian Academy of Sciences). The study employed the methods of analysis and comparison, the descriptive method, and the comparison of sources and literature. While processing the primary sources, in particular in French and German languages, the logistic-analytical method was applied (the notional content and information analysis was carried out). The research consists of two parts. In the first part of investigation the author analyzes the appointment and competence of the authorized representatives of the Council of Lithuania in neutral and “belligerent countries” and concludes, that the analysis of the circumstances of appointment and chronology of the authorized representatives of the Council of Lithuania in neutral and “belligerent countries” as well as the content of their authorizations made it clear that permanent authorized representatives, Juozas Purickis and Vladas Daumanatas-Dzimidavičius, who were appointed on 22 October 1917, had their residence in Lausanne and constituted a part of the collegial body of Lithuanian National Council, were authorized to represent the Council of Lithuania; however, only Purickis’ authorization included the phrase “to represent Lithuania’s interests abroad”; there was no indication as to what countries were meant. An equivalent wording – “to represent Lithuania’s interests abroad” – was also included in the texts of authorizations of non-permanent authorized representatives – Augustinas Voldemaras and Konstantinas Olšauskas. The material contained in the minutes of the meetings of the Council of Lithuania entails that “representation in belligerent countries” also meant representation in the Entente Powers, though no direct indication was included. In the second part of the study the author reveals the specific type of activities of the authorized representatives of the Council of Lithuania (October 1917 – November 1918) and states, that Permanent representatives of the Council of Lithuania, who were based in Lausanne and formed a part of the collegial Lithuanian National Council, did not always coordinate their diplomatic steps in the Entente Powers or in their embassies in Bern; hence, the Council of Lithuania had to deny or dissociate itself from certain statements made by the Lithuanian National Council (in Lausanne) (the declaration of separation from Russia of 25 December 1917; the protest telegram of June 1918). Both permanent and non-permanent representatives of the Council of Lithuania authorized to represent Lithuania’s interests abroad shared the same goal of seeking “the recognition of the right to self-determination for the Lithuanian nation” and the recognition of independence declared by the Council of Lithuania (on the basis of Part I of the Act of 11 December 1917 and the Act of 16 February 1918).
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Shutan, M. I. „On the two-part poems of F.I. Tyutchev’s“. Literature at School, Nr. 4, 2020 (2020): 20–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.31862/0130-3414-2020-4-20-32.

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The article presents a typology of Tyutchev’s two-part poems, created on the basis of revealing the nature of semantic relations between their compositional elements. These are poems: 1) ith a philosophical or moral-psychological generalization in the second part, which does not just reform the content that is already clear to the reader, but reveals its meaning in the language of concepts and images (the implicit form and various variants of the explicit form: a common motif that binds the parts together; a dialogue; a chain of rhetorical questions; a persona’s consciousness, contemplating and ranking a lyrical character as the artistic center of the lyrical structure); 2) with the psychological gesture in the second part that conveys the desire of certain actions, able to change something in reality or in the inner world of the lyrical “I”; 3) with parallelism of human and nature, implemented mostly through the expanded comparison without, as a rule, a complete analogy (situation: the lyrical hero contemplates a particular material object – and an association with the world of the human soul comes to their mind); 4) with the contrast of objects of nature, its states, human and nature, life and death. In connection with the last point, it is specifically emphasized that one should not confuse the logic of contrast with contrast as a compositional technique. In the light of the analytical and interpretative operations, the following conclusion is made: all the types of relations between the two compositional elements, noted in the article, are represented by both symmetrical and asymmetric structures corresponding to different strophic forms, which allows us to speak about the flexibility of the poet’s artistic thinking, which finds different structural models for expressing the philosophical and moral-psychological content.
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Gottschalk, L., I. Krasovskaia, E. Leblois und E. Sauquet. „Mapping mean and variance of runoff in a river basin“. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 10, Nr. 4 (03.07.2006): 469–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-10-469-2006.

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Abstract. The study presents an approach to represent the two first order moments of temporal runoff variability as a function of catchment area and aggregation time interval, and to map them in space. The problem is divided into two steps. First, the first order moment (the long term value) is analysed and mapped applying an interpolation procedure for river runoff. In a second step a simple random model for the river runoff process is proposed for the instantaneous point runoff normalised with respect to the long term mean. From this model analytical expressions for the time-space variance-covariance of the inflow to the river network are developed, which then is used to predict how the second order moment varies along rivers from headwaters to the mouth. The observation data are handled by a hydrological information system, which allows to display the results either in the form of area dependence of moments along the river branches to the basin outlet or as a map of the variation of the moments across the basin. The findings are demonstrated by the example of the Moselle drainage basin (French part).
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Turečková, Kamila, und Jan Nevima. „The Cost Benefit Analysis for the Concept of a Smart City: How to Measure the Efficiency of Smart Solutions?“ Sustainability 12, Nr. 7 (27.03.2020): 2663. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12072663.

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This paper is dedicated, both theoretically and conceptually, to a methodical approach towards the efficiency evaluation of proposed smart city solutions. The implementation of smart solutions in proposed projects and activities is supported by a complex assessment of benefits and costs as part of a cost benefit analysis (CBA) with the goal of maximizing the efficiency of such a solution, especially in the case of public activities for which it is typical to lack a market evaluation. A smart solution can be defined as an innovative and functional approach towards solving situations in a responsible way and with positive consequences for society. These smart solutions represent the core of the smart city concept, which together with the smart region concept presents a new economic domain where new markets or market segments offering innovative and intelligent (tangible and intangible) solutions for said cities and regions can be developed. CBA and feasibility analyses represent suitable tools for evaluation of socially and economically acceptable projects and their implementation in real life. The efficiency of these solutions is then proved by benefit and cost comparisons under the condition that these outcomes are acceptable for all stakeholders. Methodically, the paper is structured inductively. The detailed literature review provides the basis for a formulation of general principles of using a CBA for innovative smart city solution efficiency evaluations based on chosen cases, for example, from the Moravia Silesian region. Due to the originality of each submitted project, it is possible to use this proposed methodical approach of CBA applications as a primary analytical frame and it is necessary to add the specific attributes of each solution that is being evaluated.
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Dissertationen zum Thema "Which represent the basis for the analytical part"

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Ostrovská, Nina. „On-line marketingová komunikace“. Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta podnikatelská, 2021. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-442880.

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Bücher zum Thema "Which represent the basis for the analytical part"

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Library, Gloucester City. The Gloucestershire books in the lending library: These items represent a small amount only of the Library'a material on the county. The greater part of it is in the Gloucestershire collection, items from which can always be consulted in the reference library, May 1949. Gloucester: Gloucester City Libraries, 1949.

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United States. Congress. House. A bill to establish a period during which individuals under 65 years of age who are entitled to benefits under part A of the Medicare program on the basis of a disability or end stage renal disease may enroll under part B of the Medicare program in order to meet eligibility requirements for health benefits under the Civilian Health and Medical Program of the Uniformed Services under title 10, United States Code. [Washington, D.C.?]: [United States Government Printing Office], 1994.

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Noah, Webster. A grammatical institute, of the English language: Comprising, an easy, concise, and systematic method of education, designed for the use of English schools in America. : In three parts. : Part II. Containing, a plain and comprehensive grammar, grounded on the true principles and idioms of the language; with an analytical dissertation, in which the various uses of the auxiliary signs are unfolded and explained: and an essay towards investigating the rules of English verse. Hartford: Printed by Hudson & Goodwin, for the author, M,DCC,LXXXIV. Under protection of the statute., 1784.

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Paliwal. Prediction of Response in Radiation Therapy: The Physical & Biological Basis / Part 2 Analytical Models & Modelling (Symposium proceedings / American Association of Physicists in Medicine). Amer Inst of Physics, 1990.

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A grammatical institute of the English language: Comprising, an easy, concise, and systematic method of education, designed for the use of English schools in America. : In three parts. : Part II. Containing, a plain and comprehensive grammar, grounded on the true principles and idioms of the language; with an analytical dissertation, in which the various uses of the auxiliary signs are unfolded and explained: and an essay towards investigating the rules of English verse. Hartford: Printed by Barlow & Babcock, M,DCC,LXXXV. Under protection of the statue., 1785.

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Buchteile zum Thema "Which represent the basis for the analytical part"

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Pulec, Jiří. „Robert Konečný a jeho písemná pozůstalost v univerzitním archivu“. In Filosofie jako životní cesta, 73–87. Brno: Masaryk University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.5817/cz.muni.p210-9458-2019-4.

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In January 2018, Masaryk University archives obtained an extensive written estate of Robert Konečný (1906–1981), an associate professor of philosophy and professor of psychology at Masaryk University, the pioneer of health-care psychology in Czechoslovakia, a poet and author, and a major figure of resistance to Nazism. Robert Konečný’s personal files, which belong among the best preserved items in the university archives, were organized and made accessible during 2018. Extensive correspondence mainly includes collections of letters from key figures of Czech literature, philosophy and psychology. A remarkable part of the estate consists of texts of Konečný’s lectures and speeches as well as documents on his educational activity in radio and television broadcasting. The files also represent a valuable source for the study of resistance to Nazism in Moravia. An extensive set of manuscripts, typescripts and prints from the fields of psychology, philosophy and literature can serve as a basis for the preparation of Konečný’s bibliography.
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Michael, Faure. „Part II Analytical Approaches, Ch.10 Economics“. In The Oxford Handbook of International Environmental Law. Oxford University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/law/9780198849155.003.0010.

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This chapter explains that the starting point for the economic approach to both domestic as well as international environmental law is that environmental problems (including but not limited to environmental pollution) constitute a market failure. From this economic perspective transboundary environmental pollution emerges. Moreover, global environmental quality is, from an economic perspective, a so-called public good of which all states will benefit. But since no state can exclude others from benefitting from this global environmental good, there is a danger of ‘free-riding’ as a result of which this global public good (environmental quality) may be insufficiently produced. These starting points provide a basis for the emergence of international environmental law, more particularly treaty law. However, a classic paradigm in what has become known as the law and economics literature is the Coase Theorem. The chapter then addresses the likelihood of Coasean solutions to emerge as a remedy to transboundary environmental pollution. It also looks at reasons for states to conclude treaties.
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Sangwan, Neeti, und Naveen Dahiya. „A Classification Framework Towards Application of Data Mining in Collaborative Filtering“. In Collaborative Filtering Using Data Mining and Analysis, 100–114. IGI Global, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-0489-4.ch005.

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Recommendation making is an important part of the information and e-commerce ecosystem. Recommendation represent a powerful method that filter large amount of information to provide relevant choice to end users. To provide recommendations to the users, efficient and cost effective methods needs to be introduced. Collaborative filtering is an emerging technique used in making recommendations which makes use of filtering by data mining. This chapter presents a classification framework on the use of data mining techniques in collaborative filtering to extract the best recommendations to the users on the basis of their interests.
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Deng, Xiaohu, Christopher Goebert, Gershon Morgulis und Isaac Yates. „Municipal Bonds“. In Debt Markets and Investments, 95–112. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190877439.003.0006.

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This chapter discusses various types of municipal bonds, which represent an important part of the bond market. After providing a brief history of municipal bonds, the chapter then discusses two major types of municipal bonds: general obligation and revenue bonds. The next topics focus on tax exemption, credit considerations, and municipal bond structuring alternatives such as fixed, variable, and serial debt. Next, the chapter discusses the municipal bond value proposition resulting from comparatively low rates of default coupled with relatively high investment returns on a taxable equivalent basis. The chapter also highlights several “hot button” issues facing the municipal bond market such as pension bonds, private-public partnerships, and types of bond sales.
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Podgornik, Nevenka. „A Psychosocial Approach to Treating Young People's and Young Adults' Computer Addictions“. In Advances in Psychology, Mental Health, and Behavioral Studies, 281–91. IGI Global, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-8449-0.ch013.

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The article discusses the problem of digital addiction among adolescents and young adults within the context of socio-anthropology. Given the presence of this problem, we formed, as part of a project at the faculty and part of the psychotherapeutic approach to the treatment of the problem, an individual and a group program for the psychosocial treatment of digital addiction for adolescents and young adults. In the present article we clearly present both programs, which represent an innovative curative quality program. Both are designed coherently and focus on the manifested symptoms as well as on the treatment of the psychosocial background. They are designed on the basis of positive foreign practices, are adequately upgraded with consultative-therapeutic modality elements and are designed systematically and continuously, with the proper context and activity upgrade all the way up to the adolescent's regain of control over his life.
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Aamir Iqbal, Muhammad, Naila Ashraf, Wajeehah Shahid, Deeba Afzal, Faryal Idrees und Raice Ahmad. „Fundamentals of Density Functional Theory: Recent Developments, Challenges and Future Horizons“. In Density Functional Theory - Recent Advances, New Perspectives and Applications [Working Title]. IntechOpen, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.99019.

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Density Functional Theory (DFT) is a powerful and commonly employed quantum mechanical tool for investigating various aspects of matter. The research in this field ranges from the development of novel analytical approaches focused on the design of precise exchange-correlation functionals to the use of this technique to predict the molecular and electronic configuration of atoms, molecules, complexes, and solids in both gas and solution phases. The history to DFT’s success is the quest for the exchange-correlation functional, which utilizes density to represent advanced many-body phenomena inside one element formalism. If a precise exchange-correlation functional is applied, it may correctly describe the quantum nature of matter. The estimated character of the exchange-correlation functional is the basis for DFT implementation success or failure. Hohenberg-Kohn established that every characteristic of a system in ground state is a unique functional of its density, laying the foundation for DFT, which is being utilized to explore the novelty of materials. This chapter is aimed to present an overview of DFT by explaining the theoretical background, commonly used approximations as well as their recent developments and challenges faced along-with new horizons.
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Epstein, Irving R., und John A. Pojman. „Fundamentals“. In An Introduction to Nonlinear Chemical Dynamics. Oxford University Press, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195096705.003.0007.

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Before plunging into the meat of our discussions, we will review some basic but necessary ideas. Much of this material will be familiar to many readers, and we encourage you to move quickly through it or to skip it completely if appropriate. If you have not encountered these concepts before, you will find it worthwhile to invest some time here and perhaps to take a look at some of the more detailed references that we shall mention. We begin with a review of chemical kinetics. We then consider how to determine the stability of steady states in an open system using analytical and graphical techniques. Finally, we look at some of the methods used to represent data in nonlinear dynamics. The problems that we are interested in involve the rates of chemical reactions, the study of which forms the basis of chemical kinetics. This is a rich and beautiful subject, worthy of whole volumes. For those interested in a less superficial view than we have room to present here, we recommend several excellent texts on kinetics (Jordan, 1979; Cox, 1994; Espenson, 1995). We review here a minimal set of fundamentals necessary for what comes later.
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Vertakova, Yulia, Saniyat Agamagomedova, Irina Sergeeva, Andrey Tarasov, Svetlana Morkovina, Enric Seedine und Potapova Irina. „Digital Mechanisms of Management System Optimization in the Forest Industry“. In Avatar-Based Control, Estimation, Communications, and Development of Neuron Multi-Functional Technology Platforms, 174–98. IGI Global, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-1581-5.ch009.

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This chapter discusses digital mechanisms for optimizing the management system in the forest industry, which includes organizational, legal, socio-economic, and environmental aspects. Efficient forest management is considered as an integral part of efficient nature management and includes the use of forest resources, their protection, and reproduction of forests. Digital management mechanisms in forest management in general and in the forest industry in particular are based on platform solutions. Platform solutions are based on the formation and processing of data on the basis of a single automated information system, which acts as the foundation for the development of digitalization in forestry. Such a digital platform is designed to provide informational, analytical, consulting, and other support to the activities of all subjects of relations in the field of use, conservation, protection, and reproduction of forest resources.
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Halland, Ingrid. „Introduction“. In Ung Uro, 11–25. Cappelen Damm Akademisk/NOASP, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.23865/noasp.127.ch1.

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In Ung Uro: Unsettling Climates in Nordic Art, Architecture and Design, thirteen young writers, critics, and art historians examine how Nordic visual art, architecture, and design relate to the Anthropocene. The chapters in the book represent a new generation of scholarship in the field of visual studies, which holds that critique and analysis of artistic expression must have a different form and agency than before: less descriptive and impartial, according to objective parameters, and more speculative and insistent, in accordance with subjective experiences. By discussing the artwork Future Library: 2014–2114 by Katie Paterson, this introductory chapter presents key notions that run throughout the book: Arne Næss’ deep ecology, Donna Haraway’s ‘staying with the trouble’ and Giorgio Agamben’s notion of profanation. Further, chapter introduces how ethical criticality functions as a methodological underpinning for the authors’ interpretation and proposes the term deep relationalism as an analytical concept for describing a tendency in the Nordic arts in the latter part of the 2010s: an interest in processual works with an ethical value base directed towards destabilising human exceptionalism.
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Frost, Liz. „Making sense of shame theory: a psychosocial structure“. In Shame and Social Work, 19–38. Policy Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1332/policypress/9781447344063.003.0002.

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Against the background of the multifaceted and various interpretations and definitions of the concept of shame in sociological, psychological, and philosophical literature, Liz Frost, author of this chapter, proposes a systematic classification at which level shame could be considered. This three-part taxonomy she developed in reference to Honneth’s theory of recognition with the expectation of generating an analytical tool for social work theory, reflection, and practice. Three levels are taken into account: political/national, group/social and individual/personal. In each category it will consider how and by whom this type of shame might be generated, some key ideas or arguments within its purview, and some effects and/or practices that it leads to. The importance of the proposed taxonomy is illustrated and clarified on the basis of the phenomenon of ageism.
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Konferenzberichte zum Thema "Which represent the basis for the analytical part"

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Liszkai, Tama´s R., Matthew Snyder und Anne Demma. „Materials Aging Degradation of Reactor Vessel Internals: Part II—Structural Evaluation and Global Finite Element Models“. In ASME 2009 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference. ASMEDC, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2009-77786.

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Pressurized water reactor (PWR) vessel internals components can experience material aging and degradation due to irradiation [1]. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), under sponsorship of the Materials Reliability Program (MRP), developed PWR Internals Inspection and Evaluation (I&E) Guidelines mainly to support license renewal of U.S. plants [2]. The functionality analysis of reactor internals components and assemblies was one of the tools used to develop these guidelines. The purpose of the functionality analysis is to provide a best estimate evaluation of the reactor internals core barrel assembly for materials degradation and to assess whether the components retain their function. The evaluation uses an irradiated material-specific constitutive model for use in a finite element analysis representing the current state of knowledge for plasticity, creep, stress relaxation, void swelling, and embrittlement [3], 4, [5]. This constitutive model is a function of temperature and fluence. The analysis focuses on finding the integrated effects of material aging combined with steady-state operational characteristics of the reactor vessel (RV) internals. In order to evaluate the potential failure mechanisms of the core barrel assembly, finite element models were developed capable of representing the complex interactions between the components. The goal of this specific analysis is to characterize the potential failure modes, spatial and chronological distribution of potential component failures for a representative model of the Babcock & Wilcox (B&W) designed plants. Evaluation of the reactor vessel internals for materials aging degradation involves three analytical calculations. Radiation calculations of the core provide essential information on radiation dose and heat rates, due to gamma-heating, of the RV internals. The computational fluid dynamics domain (CFD) allows the evaluation of the RV internals temperatures through conjugate heat transfer (CHT) analysis coupled with coolant flow. Detailed structural analysis of the RV internals components and bolted connections is the third major analytical calculation, which facilitates the development of operating stress fields within the RV internals. Structural analysis was performed as two parts. First, a global structural model of the core barrel assembly was used to represent the interaction of components of the core barrel assembly during 60 years of operation. The global model does not include detail of the areas of stress concentration within bolted connections, therefore local models of selected bolts were developed. Results of both the global and local models were used as a basis for evaluating age-related effects. The description of the functionality analysis for the B&W designed RV internals is divided into three papers. Part I was presented in PVP-2008 [6] and included a description of the overall methodology with special attention to CFD-CHT evaluations. Part II, detailed in this paper, describes global structural finite element models. Part III, to be also presented at PVP-2009 [7], presents a description of local models of bolted connections, results, and conclusions.
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Snyder, Matthew D., Tama´s R. Liszkai und Anne Demma. „Materials Aging Degradation of Reactor Vessel Internals: Part III—Structural Evaluation and Local Finite Element Models“. In ASME 2009 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference. ASMEDC, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2009-77784.

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Pressurized water reactor (PWR) internals components can experience material aging and degradation due to irradiation. The purpose of the functionality analysis is to provide a best-estimate evaluation of the reactor internals core barrel assembly for materials degradation to see if the components retain their function. The evaluation uses an irradiated material-specific constitutive model for use in a finite element analysis [1] representing the current state of knowledge for plasticity, creep, stress relaxation, void swelling, and embrittlement. This constitutive model is a function of temperature and fluence. The analysis focuses on finding the integrated effects of material aging combined with steady-state operational characteristics of the reactor internals. In order to evaluate the potential failure mechanisms of the core barrel assembly, finite element models were developed capable of representing the complex interactions between the components. The goal of this specific analysis is to characterize the potential failure modes, spatial and chronological distribution of potential component failures for a representative model of the Babcock & Wilcox-type (B&W) designed plants. Evaluation of the reactor vessel internals for materials aging degradation involves three analytical calculations. Radiation calculations of the core provide essential information on radiation dose and heat rates of the internals. The computational fluid dynamics domain (CFD) allows evaluation of the internals temperatures through conjugate heat transfer (CHT) analysis coupled with coolant flow. Detailed structural analysis of the internals components and bolted connections is the third major physics field involved, which facilitates the development of operating stress fields within the internals. Structural analysis was performed as two parts. First, a global structural model of the core barrel assembly was used to represent the interaction of components of the core barrel assembly during 60 years of operation. The global model does not include detail of the areas of stress concentration within bolted connections. Therefore local models of selected bolts were developed. Results of both the global and local models were used as a basis for evaluating age-related effects. The description of the functionality analysis for the B&W designed RV internals is divided into three papers. Part I was presented in PVP-2008 [2] and included a description of the overall methodology with special attention to CFD-CHT evaluations. Part II, to be presented at PVP 2009 [2] describes global structural finite element models. Part III, presented in this paper, presents a description of local models of bolted connections, results, and conclusions.
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Woods, Kirby, und Kenneth Thomas. „Fatigue Cycle Monitoring“. In ASME 2011 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference. ASMEDC, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2011-58036.

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The past and/or current approach to cycle count is a deviation from the current license basis (CLB)/design stress report, CENC-1150 Analytical Report, as applied in the fatigue evaluations for pressure and thermal cycles. These departures are relative to design projection versus actual operating experience in relation to “Cyclic Life” and the intent of ASME III, Section N-415 component suitability requirements for power operations of 40 years and subsequent life extension beyond to 60 years. In general, the practice of counting scram events does not accurately represent the “Cyclic Life” and is overly conservative, resulting in inaccurate projections of component reliability. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requires licensees to keep an account of the number of transient occurrences to ensure that design assumptions used in the fatigue evaluation required by ASME Section III are not exceeded. In the mid 1970s, typical plant technical specifications required “the number of the transients which are comparable to or more severe than the transients evaluated in the stress report Code fatigue usage calculations will be recorded in a log book.” In the mid 1980s this transitioned into counting of transients, “this program provides controls to track the Final Safety Analysis Report, Section III-3.5, cyclic and transient occurrences to ensure that components are maintained within the design limits” (NUREG-1434, Section 5.5.5). In addition, the evaluation of Time-Limiting Age Analysis per Title 10 Code of Federal Regulation Part 54, Section 54.21(c). Cycle counting is used to summarize lengthy, irregular load-versus-time histories by providing the number of times cycles of various amplitudes occur. The definition of a cycle varies with the method of cycle counting. In fatigue analysis, a cycle is the load variation from valley-to-peak-to-valley. Cycle counts can be made for time histories of force, stress, strain, torque, acceleration, deflection or other loading parameters of interest. In general, the operational transients plants experience do not approach the magnitude or severity of the bounding events used in these analysis. Thus counting every transient as equal to a design event is unnecessarily conservative. However, no clear specific guidance for Owners on how to perform cycle counting has been promulgated. This paper provides guidance for formulating a fatigue management program that takes advantage of the original analytical design stress reports.
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Heaslip, Greg M., und Jeff M. Punch. „Analysis of Experimental Shock and Impact Response Data of a Printed Wire Board“. In ASME 2003 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. ASMEDC, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2003-41892.

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There is considerable reported evidence that a large percentage of portable electronics product failure is due to impact or shock during use. Failures of the external housing, internal electronic components, package-to-board interconnects, and liquid crystal display panels may occur as the result of dropping. For many orientations of drop, the Printed Wire Board (PWB) will flex significantly during the impact event and subsequent clattering. Reducing the curvature and acceleration of the PWB during impact is an integral part of the design strategy for such products. This paper investigates the response of a PWB subjected to drop and shock tests through a combination of an analytical model, explicit dynamic Finite Element Analysis (FEA), and experimentation. A test vehicle consisting of a double-sided copper clad laminate PWB, mounted as a double cantilever, is used as a basis for the investigation. A free fall drop-test system is used to represent the drop scenario, and a vibration/shock system is used to impart shocks to the test vehicle. Measurements from strain gages and accelerometers are recorded using a high-speed data acquisition system. Results from experimentation show the strain/time series data from which maximum strain, natural frequencies, and damping coefficient are extracted. These measurements are compared with theoretical calculations and FEA output for the various shock and impact profiles. The investigation illustrates the response of a PWB to various shock and impact scenarios through theory, numerical simulation, and experimentation. Wavelet techniques are used to analyse the time series data, and from the resultant time/frequency space, component frequencies are extracted. It is shown that wavelet techniques are a useful tool in the analysis of shock and impact response data.
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Yu-sheng, Liu, Xu Chao, Zhuang Shao-xin, Li Cong-xin und Zhang Pan. „Scaling Analysis of Passive Heat Exchanger Under Station Blackout Accident“. In 2017 25th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone25-66274.

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Station blackout accidents increasingly become the focus of research in the field of nuclear safety after Japan’s Fukushima nuclear plant accident in March 2011. Core decay heat under station blackout condition will be transferred by natural circulation occurring between core and passive heat exchanger for the nuclear plants incorporated passive safety design concept such as AP1000 or CAP1400. As a result, response of safety systems will differ in accident sequence and kind between passive safety plant and traditional plant. What is more, cooling capacity of passive heat exchanger (PHX) which takes on heat sink has significant effect on performance of natural circulation in passive safety system. The safety need that characteristics of passive safety plant should be verified through integral experiment facility makes scaling analysis important in design or modification of experiment facility. Furthermore, scaling analysis of natural circulation phenomena under station blackout accident plays an important role in design verification, safety review verification or thermo-hydraulic program development. It not only determines the similar similarity criteria between the nuclear power plant prototype and test facility, but also provides technical basis for selecting different experiment schemes. As a part of scaling analysis on natural circulation phenomena for station blackout, the cooling capacity of PHX in test facility should be scaled properly and reasonably with conservatism. Therefore, scaling of passive residual heat removal (PRHR) heat exchanger under station blackout accident is investigated analytically in this paper. The analytical model for natural circulation in passive heat exchanger is established based on the performance characteristics of PRHR system in passive plant. By proper hypothesis and simplification, the governing equations for PHX are normalized using steady-state solutions, initial or boundary conditions. The similarity criteria that should be preserved between PHXs in test facility and prototype are finally obtained from non-dimensionalized equations. Furthermore, the distortion analysis for PHE design is also investigated based on the similarity criteria for selected scaling factors and parameters. The safety analysis based on models of nuclear power plant prototype and test facility is conducted on transient performance of designed PHX with PHX of prototype. The results show that: heat source number is the dominant similarity criteria for PHXs design under SBO condition. Requirements of Richardson number and friction number could be satisfied by resistance adjusting on test loop. The performance of PHX designed following heat source number requirement can better represent the transient response characteristics of prototype under SBO condition.
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Kövecses, J., W. L. Cleghorn und R. G. Fenton. „Analytical Foundations for Modeling Interactions in Dynamic Systems Based on Impulsive Constraints“. In ASME 1998 Design Engineering Technical Conferences. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc98/mech-5866.

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Abstract In this paper we outline the analytical foundations of an approach for modeling interactions in dynamic systems. The method is based on impulsive constraints which can be employed to represent time-varying interaction of dynamic subsystems, and the transition between different phases of motion. Besides impulsive constraints, the analysis is based on Jourdain’s principle, and a kinematic representation of constrained mechanical systems which is related to this principle. Both finite and impulsive constraints are considered in a general manner, assuming that those can be nonlinear in velocities. It will be shown that Jourdain’s principle can create a simple and physically clear basis for such constrained motion problems. A classification of motions constrained by finite or impulsive constraints is discussed. An impulse-momentum level form of Jourdain’s principle is presented to handle impulsive constraints. An example of two robotic arms in cooperation is employed to illustrate the material presented.
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Law, C. H., und A. R. Wadia. „Low Aspect Ratio Transonic Rotors: Part 1 — Baseline Design and Performance“. In ASME 1992 International Gas Turbine and Aeroengine Congress and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/92-gt-185.

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The analytical design and experimental test of a single-stage transonic axial-flow compressor are described. This design is the baseline of a compressor design study in which several blade design parameters have been systematically varied to determine their independent effects on compressor performance. The baseline design consisted of ruggedizing an existing compressor design, that demonstrated outstanding aerodynamic performance, to correct some undesirable aeromechanical characteristics. The design study was performed by varying only one design parameter at a time, keeping other design variables as close as possible to the baseline design. Specific design parameters of interest were those for which very little data was available to determine their sensitivity on compressor performance. This paper describes the baseline compressor design and its experimental performance. A detailed definition and flow analysis of the baseline design test point (used as the basis for all subsequent design variations) are provided.
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Fukasawa, Tsuyoshi, Shigeki Okamura, Takahiro Somaki, Takayuki Miyagawa, Masato Uchita, Tomohiko Yamamoto, Tomoyoshi Watakabe und Satoshi Fujita. „Research and Development of Three-Dimensional Isolation System for Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor: Part 1 — Proposal of Analytical Models Based on Loading Tests“. In ASME 2018 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2018-84532.

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This paper describes that the analytical model for the three-dimensional isolation system [1], which consists of thick rubber bearings, disc springs and oil dampers, is created through loading tests. The new-type analytical models of each element are proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of the seismic response analysis. The concept of the three-dimensional isolation system has been proposed to ensure the structural integrity for large reactor vessels. The primary specifications of the three-dimensional isolation system are a horizontal natural period of 3.4 s and a vertical natural period of 0.33 s. The investigations of horizontal isolation performances have been conducted for the various types of isolation devices, beginning with rubber bearings, whereas the previous studies focused on the vertical isolation performances are only a few. Hence, isolation characteristics, such as restoring force and damping force, should be clarified by loading tests using vertical seismic isolation elements, and analytical model to assess the seismic response should be identified on the basis of the loading test results. This paper presents a new analytical model with providing of the differential equations to improve the prediction accuracy and demonstrates the seismic performance, including beyond-design-basis ground motion, for the three-dimensional isolation system by the seismic response analysis.
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Hart, James D., Nasir Zulfiqar, David H. Moore und Greg R. Swank. „“Digital Pigging” as a Basis for Improved Pipeline Structural Integrity Evaluations“. In 2006 International Pipeline Conference. ASMEDC, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ipc2006-10349.

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This paper describes the application of “digital pigging” procedures for converting field measurements of pipeline geometry (e.g., top of pipe survey profiles), results from geometry pig surveys, or analytically generated pipeline centerline profiles into corresponding profiles of pipeline curvature and bending strain. Application of digital pigging procedures to pipeline elevation and/or inclination profiles developed from accelerometer based geometry pigs provides a basis for performing the additional calculations required to develop bending strain profiles which may not be a part of the geometry survey deliverable but are required for pipeline structural integrity evaluations. This paper presents examples of digital pig runs over analytical pipe centerline profiles to illustrate the important effects of feature length, pig length and curvature gage length. Comparisons of the results from digital pig runs over actual geometry pig data profiles and digital pig runs over the corresponding known analytical profiles will illustrate how basic pattern recognition concepts can be used as a basis for improved synthesis of real pig data signatures. This paper also presents examples of digital pigging calculations performed on geometry pig survey data that show how low-pass filtering can be used to reduce the effects of noise in the survey data as well as the influence of curvature gage length on the computed curvature/bending strain profiles.
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Zwingenberg, M., B. Dobrzynski, S. Klumpp, K. Werner und F. K. Benra. „Generation of Gas Turbine Component Maps on Basis of Operational Data“. In ASME Turbo Expo 2012: Turbine Technical Conference and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/gt2012-68776.

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This paper describes how operational data from heavy duty gas turbines can be used for component map generation. The main aspects described are the data evaluation and validation process, the applied degradation correction methodology and the component map generation using calibrated streamline curvature methods for compressor and turbine. The operational data storage system of heavy duty gas turbines can be used, in case the customer agreed to provide the data, for fleet statistics, degradation behavior investigation or component map generation. The update of existing component maps using operational data is mainly necessary for older gas turbines types since the available numerical gas turbine models do not always represent the current state of knowledge. The process of generating component maps based on operational data requires several steps which are explained in detail in this paper. The first step is the data evaluation and validation part. This step is based on a full thermodynamic evaluation including an evaluation of systematic and random uncertainties for all required performance parameters. This generated dataset is then validated using a combination of a Kalman Filter based single fault isolator and a fuzzy logic based multiple fault isolator. A short performance evaluation of this data validation system is given as well. After the validation part the operational dataset is corrected for aging effects regarding compressor and turbine performance in order to get the new and clean component characteristic. Subsequently, a validated and aging corrected high quality database for the component map generation is available. The applied steps as well as a direct comparison for the compressor efficiency prior and post aging correction are displayed. In the following steps, already existing streamline curvature methods (SCM) for compressor and turbine are adapted to the generated dataset using a probabilistic based calibration process. The applied optimization technique is identical for compressor and turbine, but two different approaches for the calibration of the loss modeling have been implemented. The compressor SCM is calibrated with a minimum set of modified loss parameters which are modeled as a function of load. For the turbine, the modifications of the loss coefficients are constant over load. This requires an increased set of loss parameters for calibration compared to the compressor. The calibration results for both components are presented and discussed in detail. The calibrated SCMs can now be used for the component map generation in order to yield high quality component maps in accordance with current fleet experience even for older gas turbine frames.
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Berichte der Organisationen zum Thema "Which represent the basis for the analytical part"

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Yatsymirska, Mariya. KEY IMPRESSIONS OF 2020 IN JOURNALISTIC TEXTS. Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, März 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.30970/vjo.2021.50.11107.

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The article explores the key vocabulary of 2020 in the network space of Ukraine. Texts of journalistic, official-business style, analytical publications of well-known journalists on current topics are analyzed. Extralinguistic factors of new word formation, their adaptation to the sphere of special and socio-political vocabulary of the Ukrainian language are determined. Examples show modern impressions in the media, their stylistic use and impact on public opinion in a pandemic. New meanings of foreign expressions, media terminology, peculiarities of translation of neologisms from English into Ukrainian have been clarified. According to the materials of the online media, a «dictionary of the coronavirus era» is provided. The journalistic text functions in the media on the basis of logical judgments, credible arguments, impressive language. Its purpose is to show the socio-political problem, to sharpen its significance for society and to propose solutions through convincing considerations. Most researchers emphasize the influential role of journalistic style, which through the media shapes public opinion on issues of politics, economics, education, health care, war, the future of the country. To cover such a wide range of topics, socio-political vocabulary is used first of all – neutral and emotionally-evaluative, rhetorical questions and imperatives, special terminology, foreign words. There is an ongoing discussion in online publications about the use of the new foreign token «lockdown» instead of the word «quarantine», which has long been learned in the Ukrainian language. Research on this topic has shown that at the initial stage of the pandemic, the word «lockdown» prevailed in the colloquial language of politicians, media personalities and part of society did not quite understand its meaning. Lockdown, in its current interpretation, is a restrictive measure to protect people from a dangerous virus that has spread to many countries; isolation of the population («stay in place») in case of risk of spreading Covid-19. In English, US citizens are told what a lockdown is: «A lockdown is a restriction policy for people or communities to stay where they are, usually due to specific risks to themselves or to others if they can move and interact freely. The term «stay-at-home» or «shelter-in-place» is often used for lockdowns that affect an area, rather than specific locations». Content analysis of online texts leads to the conclusion that in 2020 a special vocabulary was actively functioning, with the appropriate definitions, which the media described as a «dictionary of coronavirus vocabulary». Media broadcasting is the deepest and pulsating source of creative texts with new meanings, phrases, expressiveness. The influential power of the word finds its unconditional embodiment in the media. Journalists, bloggers, experts, politicians, analyzing current events, produce concepts of a new reality. The world is changing and the language of the media is responding to these changes. It manifests itself most vividly and emotionally in the network sphere, in various genres and styles.
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Vargas-Herrera, Hernando, Juan Jose Ospina-Tejeiro, Carlos Alfonso Huertas-Campos, Adolfo León Cobo-Serna, Edgar Caicedo-García, Juan Pablo Cote-Barón, Nicolás Martínez-Cortés et al. Monetary Policy Report - April de 2021. Banco de la República de Colombia, Juli 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr2-2021.

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1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
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