Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Tourism - China“

Many tourism studies have shown that travelers and tourism industry participants are the most important contributors to the image of a location in the tourism business. Considering the potential to find possible links between motivation, rural tourism destination image and tourist satisfaction. The main objective of this paper is to review the literature on the variable that affects tourist behavior based on (motivation, image and satisfaction) that can improve the developments especially in rural tourism in China and to find the most influence variables.

Background: The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a mega-project worth more than 54 billion US dollars, as a result of which bilateral relations between Pakistan and China reached new heights. The CPEC is designed to facilitate the establishment of links between Pakistan and the road network, railways and pipelines in conjunction with energy, industrial and other infrastructure projects to ensure the critical energy shortage necessary to enhance the economic growth in Pakistan.Objective: The main purpose of this article is to shed light on promotion of mutual understanding on China's initiative for the revival of the Silk Road and the benefits and challenges for the tourism industry which the CPEC can bring to the neighboring countries, especially Pakistan. A very new project will give us plenty of room to develop a number of innovative points greatly to improve the quality of services and the overall tourist experience in these new tourist destinations.Methodology: Qualitative research and analysis with the help of online research and data collection; the study of excellence in individual scenarios tourist sites, focusing on the aspects of service and policy will be useful to improve tourism on both sides via the Silk Road. Authors also collected data from tourist websites and recommend top rated tourist attractions on Silk Road from Khunjrab pass (border between china and Pakistan) to Gawadar, Pakistan. These tourists’ attraction are hints for tourists, travel agents and new researchers.

International tourism serves as an important mechanism for the socio-economic development of the country, provides a steady inflow of foreign hard currency, investment and the development of many related industries. Since 1978, China's inbound tourism market has maintained a stable and rapid development trend. The period of rapid growth of inbound tourism in China began in 1986. More than 55 million travelers from all over the world visit China every year. At present, China's tourism industry has entered the stage of rapid development and has become an important industrial sector of the national economy. The comprehensive contribution of tourism to China's GDP has reached about 11 %. The total number of direct and indirect jobs in the tourism industry now accounts for 10.3 % of the country's total employed population. Today, China ranks fifth to sixth in the world in foreign exchange earnings from tourism. China's East, South, Southwest and Center have the highest demographic and accommodation capacity for tourism development. China's regular and high-speed rail network is also confined to these regions of the country. South Korea, Japan, the USA and Russia are among the leading inbound tourist donor countries. China annually receives about 5 million tourists from South Korea. Europe and America, which have high GDP per capita, also provide a large flow of tourists. Among the thirty-one provincial areas in China, Beijing, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Guangdong, which are located in the economically developed provinces and coastal areas in the east and south, have the most tourist arrivals, more than 3 million. Currently, the tourism industry in China is developing steadily, the inbound tourism market continues to grow at a high pace.

The article is devoted to the study of the features of the impact of tourism on the interaction of split nations. The focus is on the evolution of mobility regimes between China and Taiwan and their impact on the transformation of bilateral relations. The political processes that preceded the development of tourist contacts in the Taiwan Strait have been highlighted, the influence of tourist interaction on the establishment of peace and political stability in the region as well as the integration of China and Taiwan into a single tourist area have been explored. The main stages of the transformation of the foreign policy component of the tourism policy of China and Taiwan are traced. It is argued that China's tourism policy during the last ten years (2008-2018) has been accompanied by the active use of tourist flows as an instrument of economic, cultural and political integration of Taiwan. This was made possible by establishing direct transport links, visa liberalization, and the possibility of individual tourist trips to Taiwan. Such an activity led to the politicization of economic and tourism cooperation with China in Taiwan society, influenced the electoral process that became implicit in the «Sunflower Movement» in 2014. Freedom of travel for Chinese tourists to Taiwan has become a revolutionary transformation not only in the tourism industry on the island, but also a symbol of the transformation of relations between the two shores of the Taiwan Strait. It is concluded that China's tourism policy to create a spatial mobility regime with Taiwan is oriented towards the use of tourism as a global actor of economic and cultural integration, as well as foreign economic and political pressure. Keywords: «divided nations», Taiwan-China relations, tourism, tourism policy.

With rapid development of tourism industry in China, more and more literature study on tourist impacts attracts scholars’ research interests, especially tourist impacts on destinations. Tourism impacts mainly include four aspects, which are economy, culture, society, and environment. In China, it refers mainly to the former three fields. This article describes the positive and negative impacts of these three fields in China.

<p class="Normal1">We estimate the factors of inbound tourism in China by using a panel gravity model equation of 178 origin countries from 1995 to 2012. We find the cultural dummy variables like common language, common border and religion driving the tourism flows to China. Besides, the climate variables like annual average temperature and cloud cover play a significant factors in affecting the tourist arrivals in China. An interesting result we have found that, cloud has a positive and negative relationship in country of destination and origin respectively implying that, cloudy variable in the country of origin has a negative impact on international tourist flows in China. In the contrary, cloud variable is observed positive relation in China. </p>

The large increase in the number of tourists brings challenges to the tourist carrying capacity of tourist destinations. By constructing a tourism carrying capacity indicator system and a coupling coordination model, we calculate and compare the development of tourism carrying capacity and the coupling coordination between all first-class indicators of tourism carrying capacity for provinces and cities in China. We find that the tourism carrying capacity and the coupling coordination between all first-class indicators of tourism carrying capacity for provinces and cities in China both showed an upward trend from 2008 to 2017, but the development was not balanced. In coastal provinces, their development level was high although lately showing a downward trend. In the provinces of the northwest China, their development level is low, and their development speed is relatively slow. The provinces and cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the southwest China recorded the fastest growth rate. In addition, we found that the development of tourism carrying capacity is closely related to coupling coordination between all first-class indicators of tourism carrying capacity.

The article examines recent trends in the economic relations between Sri Lanka and China focussing on trade, investment and tourism dimensions. Although bilateral economic ties between Sri Lanka and China have strengthened over time, the article demonstrates Sri Lanka’s low rank among China’s economic partners. For example, while China is the second-largest tourism partner of Sri Lanka in terms of tourist arrivals, Sri Lanka does not rank among even China’s top 25 tourist destinations. Consequently, the article recommends certain policy priorities to ensure mutually beneficial economic relations. With regards to tourism, it recommends promoting Sri Lanka’s brand on Chinese e-tourism websites and social media, introducing user-friendly tourist apps in Chinese, strengthening air connectivity and celebrating Chinese festivals. Similarly, trade and investment could be facilitated by stronger links with Chinese cities and connecting Sri Lankan students in China to the Chinese industry via internships and building commercial networks from the ground up.

This study analyses the Chinese government’s involvement in Red Tourism, with a special focus on the government’s political intentions in conveying messages at Red Tourism sites, and, critically, how tourists respond to the messages presented there. There are two separate identifiable phases in the development of Red Tourism since 2004. The first phase is from 2004 to 2010 and the second one is from 2011 to 2015. Shaoshan, the birthplace of Mao Zedong, and Zhijiang, which is dedicated to commemorating the surrender of the Japanese Imperial Army, are selected to examine the government’s political intentions behind the messages presented at these two Red Tourism sites. The former is the best example from the first phase, while the latter is one of the most important in the second phase. The messages produced by the Chinese government are communicated to tourists in Red Tourism sites, encouraging tourists to embrace certain political ideals. However, the messages presented at Red Tourism sites do not necessarily lead to tourists accepting unreservedly the government point of view. Tourists are free to reject this discourse and construct their own reading of the sites, and this they frequently do. Therefore, the sender of the messages, the government, and the receiver of the messages, the tourists, may not be in agreement. It is to be hoped that this study contributes to a better understanding of Red Tourism in contemporary China, while the responses of visitors may will provide valuable insights into the state of Chinese society today.

In an experiential economy, tourists demand quality tourism experiences. Tourists want more than to see sights or to overnight in a hotel, they want each component of their travel to deliver a quality experience. As the industry becomes more competitive, industry focus and research on the determinants of quality tourism experiences is burgeoning.This research studies Gold Coast resident’s perspectives of quality tourism experiences both as a tourist and as a host to tourists. China tour group individuals applied their quality filters of pricality, functionality, aesthetics and familiarity, to benchmark the China tour mediating quality concepts, Tour leader, Locally hosted visits, Tour elements, Tour group, Tour destination, and Hosting to evaluate a quality tourism experience. Situated within the social sciences, the design of this research is multifacted and uses a blended approach of traditions and methods with the intent of interpretion and meaning-making. To this end an interpretive constructivist approach lead to the adoption of a blend of phenomenology and ethnography traditions.
Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith Business School
Griffith Business School
Full Text

The development of tourism may catalyse a vast array of impacts, social, cultural, socioeconomic, environmental or political. In ethnic minority communities and regions, impacts are potentially greater due to the pre-existing social, cultural and even sociopolitical constructs. Tourism, as a global phenomenon, is confined to operating within the local context. This is certainly the case in ethnic minority communities of China's southern peripheries. Tourism development is a differential process of formal and informal sector development. Formal sector development is generally capital intensive and relatively highly organised. In contrast, the informal sector involves many small vendors and family or community run businesses. The sectoral dichotomy may also be applied, in a general sense, to the types of tourists utilizing accommodation and services provided by these two distinct sectors. As the balance between the two sectors changes over time and across space, there is a commensurate shift in the type and scale of impacts generated by tourism in host communities. It is this that makes the sectoral paradigm so relevant to the role (or indeed lack of role) of ethnic minorities in tourism development in their local areas and communities. Apart from economic impacts, there are sociocultural and even socioenvironmental impacts on host communities. As with socioeconomic impacts, sociocultural impacts are also influenced by the differential development of the formal and informal sectors over time. Furthermore, particularly in ethnic minority areas, socioeconomic and sociocultural impacts are tightly integrated and one impact realm cannot adequately be considered in isolation.

The development of tourism may catalyse a vast array of impacts, social, cultural, socioeconomic, environmental or political. In ethnic minority communities and regions, impacts are potentially greater due to the pre-existing social, cultural and even sociopolitical constructs. Tourism, as a global phenomenon, is confined to operating within the local context. This is certainly the case in ethnic minority communities of China's southern peripheries. Tourism development is a differential process of formal and informal sector development. Formal sector development is generally capital intensive and relatively highly organised. In contrast, the informal sector involves many small vendors and family or community run businesses. The sectoral dichotomy may also be applied, in a general sense, to the types of tourists utilizing accommodation and services provided by these two distinct sectors. As the balance between the two sectors changes over time and across space, there is a commensurate shift in the type and scale of impacts generated by tourism in host communities. It is this that makes the sectoral paradigm so relevant to the role (or indeed lack of role) of ethnic minorities in tourism development in their local areas and communities. Apart from economic impacts, there are sociocultural and even socioenvironmental impacts on host communities. As with socioeconomic impacts, sociocultural impacts are also influenced by the differential development of the formal and informal sectors over time. Furthermore, particularly in ethnic minority areas, socioeconomic and sociocultural impacts are tightly integrated and one impact realm cannot adequately be considered in isolation.
Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith Business School
Griffith Business School
Full Text

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Waterloo, 2001.
"A thesis presented to the University of Waterloo in fulfilment of the thesis requirement for the degree of Doctor in Philosophy in Planning". Includes bibliographical references. Also available in microfiche format.

AbstractIn the future, artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to substantially change both the tourism industry and tourist behavior. At present, research on artificial intelligence and tourism is receiving widespread attention, but most of them focus on a certain subject or a specific aspect of the tourism industry. For example, artificial intelligence influences the behavior of tourists and tourism enterprises. The analysis of the impact of artificial intelligence on the tourism industry as a system is still insufficient. Therefore, this research proposes a multi-dimensional framework from an industry perspective based on the existing definition of artificial intelligence. The framework involves three aspects: the level of intelligence, task types, and whether artificial intelligence is embedded in robots. The authors use a large number of Chinese practice cases to investigate how AI affects the tourism industry, then put forward a research agenda to analyze how destination government, tourism enterprises and tourist experience will change in the future. Finally, they highlight important issues related to privacy, prejudice and ethics.

The paper deals with new trends in the development of regional tourists' business under crisis conditions. The opportunities of digital transformations of home and inbound tourism are appreciated some versions of digital transformation of tourists' assets are offered.

The article analyzes the main trends in the development of domestic tourism in Russia, changes in the development of domestic tourism associated with an unfavorable epidemiological situation. The effectiveness of anti-crisis measures is assessed, including measures of state support for the regions, undertaken for the development of domestic tourism in Russia.

In recent years, as people pay more attention to healthy life, the "big health" industry is heading for a new round of growth. As a combination of tourism and "big health" industry, wellness tourism has good market environment. The wellness tourism in China is in its initial stage, and the research on wellness tourism products based on the demand of tourists is insufficient. In this paper, Phoenix Valley Forest Parkas the research object, using the form of questionnaire survey based on the needs of tourists, put forward suggestions on the development of forest wellness tourism products, in order to enrich the content of wellness tourism research and provide reference for the industry development.

Tourism plays an important role in international relations in the modern world. Educational trips occupy a special place in international trade in services. Educational tourism is a way of human self-development, an opportunity to grow personally and professionally. Young people are interested not only in walking along the streets with sights, but also in the opportunity to gain new knowledge, learn the language of the host country. Despite the active development of this type of tourism, there is still no consensus regarding the interpretation of the essence of educational tourism and its concept.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.