Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Teenagers – united states – social conditions“

Guaranteeing the availability of European labour markets constituted a very important element of the Polish foreign policy during the negotiation of conditions under which Poland would become a member of the European Union. At the time of the Polish accession, Poles as citizens of United Europe gained the right to take up legal work in other Member States. This opportunity was taken by Polish young people – “thirdgeneration emigrants” tempted by better earnings and prospects for the future. The proposed text is an attempt to capture migrants’ reality in the context of adaptative difficulties experienced by migrants with regard to globalisation-related transformations and the construct of a global teenager. The research results were obtained from two research projects carried out: (1) a research project carried out under the promotional grant in the years 2008-2012 (National Center for Science in Krakow – NN 106 348 140 (grant manager: Prof. Magdalena Piorunek, PhD) under the title: ‘Polish emigration and reemigration as an experience. Sociological and pedagogical aspect’, the results of which have been published in: Kozielska J., (2014) Post-accession migration. The theoretical and empirical context. Social support. The research sample in the quantitative analysis consisted of 174 persons who emigrated for at least one year and stayed in Poland for at least 6 months from the time of their return to the time of the research. The sample was targeted, and the target group consisted of return emigrants who emigrated during the pre-accession period and decided to stay in a European state rather than a “traditional” country of migration like the United States of America. The quantitative research was supplemented with a qualitative analysis of texts derived from hermeneutic methods, which included online forums (created by and for emigrants, both those who are still abroad and those who are planning to return or have already returned to Poland) and blogs containing fragments of emigrants’ biographies; (2) a research project carried out in London and Scotland under the POSTDOC scholarship of the Adam Mickiewicz University “Unique Graduate = Opportunities. An increase in the didactic potential of the Adam Mickiewicz University through proinnovative education in English, interdisciplinariness, e-learning, investment in human resources” under the title: ‘Transnational biographical counselling. A paradigm of qualitative research. An in-depth interview – 15 families with children (aged between 3 and 13 years) (2015-2017)’.

Background: Relatively little is known about social inequality in human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination among teenagers in the United States. This study aims to investigate whether there is a social disparity in HPV vaccination among teenagers and if so, whether it can differ according to the source of teen vaccination information (parental reports and provider records). Methods: We used the data from the 2019 National Immunization Survey-Teen (NIS-Teen; 42,668 teenagers, aged 13–17) including parent-reported vaccination status. Among them, 18,877 teenagers had adequate provider-reported vaccination records. Two socioeconomic status (SES) measures were used: mother’s education and annual family income. Multivariate logistic analyses were conducted. Results: False negatives of parental reports against provider records were more than two times higher (p < 0.001) in low-SES teens than in high-SES teens. In both SES measures, the proportion of HPV-unvaccinated teenagers was lowest at the highest SES level in analyses with parental reports. However, it was the opposite in analyses with provider records. Interestingly, regardless of the vaccination information source, the HPV unvaccinated rate was highest in the middle-SES teens (>12 years, non-college graduates; above poverty level, but not >USD 75 K). Conclusions: Significant social inequality in HPV vaccination among teenagers exists in the United States. The pattern of social inequality in HPV vaccination can be distorted when only parent-reported vaccination information is used.

This paper examines affiliation with the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement using the constructivism theory. The main finding presented in the paper is that the discrimination experienced by African Americans in the United States in the past two decades. The BLM movement's history was a response to the death of two black teenagers, Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown, who were both unarmed and shot and killed. The most famous one happened this year, the death of George Floyd for the brutal police action by pressing the victim's neck with his leg until Floyd died. The second key finding is that BLM organizations generated more to frame the movement as a struggle for individual rights. Still, many youths assume that this movement is just a trend on social media. Finally, social media's influence where the spread of news, content, videos is the important point of the black lives matter movement in the US.

This paper examines affiliation with the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement using the constructivism theory. The main finding presented in the paper is that the discrimination experienced by African Americans in the United States in the past two decades. The BLM movement's history was a response to the death of two black teenagers, Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown, who were both unarmed and shot and killed. The most famous one happened this year, the death of George Floyd for the brutal police action by pressing the victim's neck with his leg until Floyd died. The second key finding is that BLM organizations generated more to frame the movement as a struggle for individual rights. Still, many youths assume that this movement is just a trend on social media. Finally, social media's influence where the spread of news, content, videos is the important point of the black lives matter movement in the US.

Teenage pregnancy has a history of being a “social problem” in the United States, with there being higher rates in rural communities. Social support, a contributor to improving mental health outcomes, can significantly impact a teenager’s pregnancy and parenting experience. Using House’s (1981) social support framework, this study explores the teenagers’ perceptions of how their rural community reacted and responded to them as pregnant and parenting teenagers. The results were formulated through the thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews (n = 26) with current and former pregnant and/or parenting teenagers. The participants reported experiencing both positive and negative social support. There were more reports of emotional support and instrumental support among the forms of positive support than there were in the other categories. Informational support was lacking. The appraisal support from community members was negative. There is a need for rural communities to develop effective social support strategies to provide positive support for pregnant and parenting teenagers.

The article is devoted to the problem of the studying of fashion and protests in the modern society.Within the work some classical and modern theoretical methods of the regarding of protests and the forms of their realization are viewed. It is stated that in the most cases a protest is studied with the observing of either common behavior or actions, public or social movements, or various ways of political involving and participating.Also, there the terms of ‘political participating’ and ‘political protest’ are differentiated in the modern political discourse.As a matter of fact, in the article it is proposed to consider ‘fashion’ as a complicated structured phenomena that, on one hand, is an innovation (an individualization) and, on the other hand, an inheritance (a massif dissemination, a social equalization).Likewise, there are analyzed possible variations of cooperation between fashion and protests under conditions of the progressing mobility. Hence, it is decided that fashion stimulates participants of actual protests and, at the same time, expands their number with so-called ‘passive component’. For example, the black color has united the most spectacular representatives of the cinema regarding one problem that is connected with the Golden Globe Film Festival. However, such a massif dissemination of the black dress-code could have made all the guests of the festival accept the common idea.So, it is concluded that the dissemination of protests causes the appearance of legitimate social movements and organizations, as well as destructive modes of common behavior. In the light of above mentioned, it should be stressed that teenagers are in the group of the most possible risk who are very active participants of meetings, tumults that provoke the spreading of antisocial behavior in the society.In addition, in the article is proclaimed the idea that the cooperation between fashion and protests in the modern mobile society is presented by two variants. They are ‘fashion in protests’ that is characterized by the presence of fashion symbols in any protest and ‘fashion problems’ that occur constantly.As for the first variant, a certain list of examples can be proposed: individual demarches, group and collective actions that expect their popularization in the entire society (or, at least, in some of its parts). Protest practices prove that this popularization is based on the transformed classical scheme of the existence and functioning of culture in the society (for example, the appearance of fashion symbols such as the orange color during the events in Ukraine in 2004).As for the second variant, we can suggest as an example the fact that at the end of the XXth century and at the beginning of the XXIst century were widely discussed problems of humans` and parents` rights, the support of healthy life style and etc. For this reason, there were the Movement for humans` rights, the Movement for parents` rights, the Life Without Drogues Movement, the Eco Food Movement and many others.

In retrospect, I think that the fate that befell the social indicators ‘movement's rich array of economic statistics and related measures were simply inadequate indicators of emerging developments and issues under prevailing conditions of rapid social change and severe social strains. The felt need was for more adequate monitoring and reporting of social conditions and processes – implying a need to develop improved measures of these phenomena, together with expanded data collection capabilities. Thus the dual goals of the social indicators movement were apparent from the start: to establish an improved social reporting capability as soon as possible, and to encourage longer-term research and development in the general area of social, measurement and model-building. It may be helpful, therefore, to consider the outcome of these two efforts separately.

Abstract: In the United States, teen suicide rates tripled over several decades, but have declined slightly since the mid-1990s. Suicide, by its nature, is a complex problem. Many myths have developed about individuals who complete suicide, suicide risk factors, current prevention programs, and the treatment of at-risk youth. The purpose of this article is to address these myths, to separate fact from fiction, and offer recommendations for future suicide prevention programs. Myth #1: Suicide attempters and completers are similar. Myth #2: Current prevention programs work. Myth #3: Teenagers have the highest suicide rate. Myth #4: Suicide is caused by family and social stress. Myth #5: Suicide is not inherited genetically. Myth #6: Teen suicide represents treatment failure. Psychiatric illnesses are often viewed differently from other medical problems. Research should precede any public health effort, so that suicide prevention programs can be designed, implemented, and evaluated appropriately. Too often suicide prevention programs do not use evidence-based research or practice methodologies. More funding is warranted to continue evidence-based studies. We propose that suicide be studied like any medical illness, and that future prevention efforts are evidence-based, with appropriate outcome measures.

This dissertation is based on Sociocultural Theory, Social Learning Theory and Trauma Theory, as well as a new theoretical framework (Post Traumatic Slave Syndrome) which takes into account multigenerational trauma. Five research questions involving independent variables believed to predict violent behavior in African American male youth were investigated. The first three questions addressed stressors experienced by African Americans: violence witnessing, violence victimization, and daily urban hassles. The fourth and fifth questions concerned the sociocultural characteristics of racial socialization and prosocial attitudes toward respect. Participants were 200 African American male youth residing in inner Northeast Portland, Oregon who were recruited from four organizations: The Portland House of Umoja residential facility, McLaren Youth Correctional Facility, Donald E. Long Youth Correctional Facility and the Bridge Builders Gentlemen's Rites of Passage Program. The study included two groups of African American male youth ages 14 to 18, 100 of whom were incarcerated and 100 of whom were non-incarcerated. All five independent variables significantly predicted use of violence in separate regression equations. Multiple regression analyses revealed that the strongest predictor of the use of violence was victimization extent which alone accounted for 43.3% of the total variance in use of violence. In the second step of the regression, witnessing was added to the equation which increased the explained variance to 49.2%. The third and final step added prosocial attitudes toward respect to the regression accounting for a total of 51.2% of the variance of the extent of the use of violence. Variables excluded from the final regression equation were racial socialization and urban hassles which failed to significantly increase the prediction of the criterion variable of extent of use of violence. The data provide evidence that trauma characteristics of absent mothers, witnessing violence, experiencing violence, and feeling disrespected by others are key factors that can provide practitioners a better lens to use in assessment and treatment planning than the current response of punishment and incarceration for displays of violent behavior.

A large body of research finds correlations between unemployment and health. This raises the question of whether unemployment benefit programs, which aim to alleviate financial stress associated with job loss, have their own health effects. Although existing studies indicate that receiving unemployment benefits is likely protective for health, most studies do not account for the potentially endogenous relationship between unemployment benefit receipt and individual characteristics. Since not all unemployed people are eligible for, or receive unemployment benefits, estimates of the health effects of unemployment benefits may be biased. This thesis aims to better understand whether unemployment benefits have a causal effect on health by taking advantage of quasi-experimental variations in unemployment benefit programs in the United States. In the first study, I investigate whether the presence of generous State unemployment benefit programs results in fewer suicides during labour market downturns. In the second study, I use longitudinal data to explore whether State unemployment benefit generosity buffers the impact of job loss on self-reported health. The third study examines whether unemployment benefit eligibility expansions lead to greater participation in physically active leisure. Lastly, I use an instrumental variables approach to estimate the self-reported health effects of receiving unemployment benefits. Across all four studies, I consistently find evidence that unemployment benefits have a health promoting effect in the short-term: unemployment benefits are associated with lower suicide rates, better self-reported health and increased physical activity. While the precise mechanisms remain uncertain, I argue that unemployment benefits may positively affect health by subsidizing income and leisure time, both of which can be beneficial for physical and mental health. Although unemployment benefits are unlikely to be a costeffective approach to improve health, the results indicate that policymaker efforts to reduce or limit access to unemployment benefits may lead to unanticipated adverse health effects.

The purpose of this study was to compare the differences in the utilization of coping mechanisms of minority and White adolescents. By measuring the coping skills in adolescents, it sought to identify which strategies are most frequently used within the construct of race.

The purpose of this study is to explain the consequences of a changing age structure on social change in the urban industrialized environment. This analysis determines the impact of the younger to the older labor force aged population on both negative and positive forms of social change behavior. The indices of social behavior to be examined are the deviant behaviors of homicide, suicide and certain innovative behavior associated with patent activity. The specific age composition of the population to be examined is the ratio of young male adults aged 15-34 to those aged 35-64. The analysis of main effects of the model is conducted, controlling for the effects of unemployment and urban growth. These control variables have traditionally been documented as being important factors associated with deviant forms of behavior. However, the more contemporary literature increasingly recognizes the relationship between age and the tendency to act out certain social change behaviors. Most of social change emphasizes "negative" deviant behaviors. This study incorporated two innovative measures related to patents in an attempt to measure "positive" forms of deviant behavior. This strategy is used to determine if positive behavior can be explained by the same independent variables used to account for negative behavior. A multiple linear regression model is used to analyze the hypothesis of the research model. The results show a significant relationship between the age composition of the population and the selected indices of social behavior. As expected, the traditional indices of negative deviant behavior are consistent with the findings of the model. The less traditional indices used to measure innovation also result in positive findings. However, the significance of these latter findings is more modest in comparison to those of the traditional measures of deviant behavior. The implications of this study are that when pressure for opportunity builds in the population due to a heavy proportion of young adults, the prevalence of both positive (innovative) and negative (destructive) behavior increases. These behaviors reflect the need within society to change and adapt to population requirements. These dynamics are heightened as our society becomes more urbanized under the circumstances. The task for social policy makers is how to encourage the positive innovative forms of social change.

Are experiences with migration affecting culturally specific gendered practices, roles, attitudes, and ideologies of Mexican women and men? Which experiences reinforce patriarchy? Which experiences transform patriarchy? This thesis proposes that Mexican immigrant women will subscribe to and enact different gendered behaviors depending upon their perception of gendered gains. Various factors, such as time of arrival, previous experiences with negative machismos, and workforce participation affect how they construct gendered identities. The context where bargaining occurs-whether itwas the home, the community, or the workplace - inform women of what strategies they need implement in order to negotiate with patriarchy. This study employs two models, Deniz Kandiyoti's concept of the patriarchal bargain and Sylvya Walby' s theoretical position of patriarchy fomenting unique gender inequalities within different contexts, to process the different ways Mexican immigrant women perceive and perform gender. The author analyzed data collected from participant observation activities, focus groups, and interviews with women of Mexican descent living in new immigrant destinations. Mexican immigrant women's narratives of negotiations and transformations with male partners indicated equal adherence of traditional and nontraditional gendered behaviors in order to build satisfactory patriarchal bargains. In addition, data suggested that identity formation was the outcome of migratory influences; it also indicated that progressive ideas about gender were salient before migrating to the U.S .. Findings also suggested that reassured masculine identities, due to the stable work options open to Mexican immigrant males in this area, became a factor in the emergence and adherence of distinct gendered attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions by women in this study.

Objectives. To more clearly articulate, and more graphically demonstrate, the impact of poverty on various health outcomes and social conditions by comparing the poorest counties to the richest counties in the United States and to other countries in the world. Methods. We used 5-year averages for median household income to form the 3141 US counties into 50 new “states”—each representing 2% of the counties in the United States (62 or 63 counties each). We compared the poorest and wealthiest “states.” Results. We documented dramatic and statistically significant differences in life expectancy, smoking rates, obesity rates, and almost every other measure of health and well-being between the wealthiest and poorest “states” in the country. The populations of more than half the countries in the world have a longer life expectancy than do US persons living in the poorest “state.” Conclusions. This analysis graphically demonstrates the true impact of the extreme socioeconomic disparities that exist in the United States. These differences can be obscured when one looks only at state data, and suggest that practitioners and policymakers should increasingly focus interventions to address the needs of the poorest citizens in the United States.

In America, it is estimated that between 500,000 and two million children run away each year. A majority of these runaways become involved with illegal substance abuse. This study questions whether children experience substance abuse prior to their running away or if their substance abuse is an attempt to cope with the new stressors created by street life. Data collection will include having 50 volunteers complete a questionnaire, with consideration of race and gender. The findings suggested that no relationship exist between runaways engaging in drug use and the amount of stress experienced at home or during the runaway.

Living arrangements of older people in Europe and the US have changed considerably in the last decades. The impact of these changes on mental health in later life is not fully understood. Making use of interdisciplinary ageing datasets (the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe and the Health and Retirement Study in the US), this thesis aims to evaluate how changes in the way older people live influence depressive symptoms in old age – focusing on two types of living arrangements: intergenerational co-residence and housing tenure. Composed of four empirical chapters, this PhD thesis makes four methodological and substantive contributions to the literature. The first chapter sets the stage for a cross-national comparison of the effect of living arrangements on depression. It assesses the comparability of commonly used depressive symptoms measures in the primary ageing datasets (Euro-D and CES-D scales). The second chapter focuses on the effect of early access to homeownership (before the age of 35) and housing stability on later life depression in the US. The findings suggest that accessing the housing ladder early on in the life course and remaining in that home are associated with both lower levels of depressive symptoms and slower progression of depression in later life. The third empirical chapter investigates the association between changes in housing tenure and depression in later life in the US. Using individual fixedeffects models, this analysis assesses whether within-person changes in housing tenure are associated with within-person changes in depressive symptoms. The analyses show that acquiring a home after 50 brings mental health benefits. The fourth empirical chapter evaluates the effects of intergenerational co-residence in 14 European countries. Using an instrumental variable approach to account for reverse causality, the findings suggest that co-residing with an adult child in the context of the 2008 economic crisis can yield mental health benefits for their parents. Taken together, the results presented in this thesis underscore the importance of living arrangements as key life course determinants of depression in old age.

AbstractRecent large wildfires in the USA have exposed millions of people to smoke, with major implications for health and other social and economic values. Prescribed burning for ecosystem health purposes and hazardous fuel reduction also adds smoke to the atmosphere, in some cases affecting adjacent communities. However, we currently lack an appropriate assessment framework that looks past the planned versus unplanned nature of a fire and assesses the environmental conditions under which particular fires burn, their socio-ecological settings, and implications for smoke production and management. A strong scientific foundation is needed to address wildland fire smoke challenges, especially given that degraded air quality and smoke exposure will likely increase in extent and severity as the climate gets warmer. It will be especially important to provide timely and accurate smoke information to help communities mitigate potential smoke impacts from ongoing wildfires, as well as from planned prescribed fires. This assessment focuses on primary physical, chemical, biological, and social considerations by documenting our current understanding of smoke science and how the research community can collaborate with resource managers and regulators to advance smoke science over the next decade.

Abstract This chapter provides an overview of the policy infrastructure and key policies in place concerning the social rights of Danish citizens residing abroad. It builds on evidence from legal and administrative documents, on communications with key informants, as well as on existing studies and reports concerning the Danish Government’s approach to emigration and diaspora policies. Concrete cases for this study are five countries where the largest Danish diaspora concentrate: Sweden, Norway, Germany, the United States of America and the United Kingdom. It argues that reliance on supra-national agreements, previous rather negative public opinion about emigrants as well as the residence principle embedded in the qualifying conditions for social benefits are three main factors which explain the limited attention currently given by the Danish Government to diaspora policies, in particular the social protection of Danish citizens residing abroad.

AbstractTaking contemporary visual discourse on ‘precarious passages’ as a starting point, Sander’s contribution explores the media and material conditions of migrant maritime mobilities around 1900. In the wake of the second wave of mass migration to the United States, a new kind of steamship was developed that shaped the experience of the passage from the ‘Old’ to the New World: the Grand Ocean Lines. Not unlike today, the parameters of this experience were based on economic and social structures. While the great mass of migrants traveled under unreasonably perilous conditions in the dark and dirty steerage holds of the ship, the upper decks of the ocean liners developed into ‘Grand Hotels,’ offering the first- and second-class passengers luxurious voyages on the very same steamers. Alfred Stieglitz’s famous cubist photograph “The Steerage” (1907) powerfully shows these divergent class conditions. The picture, in which new formal parameters are combined with a clear look at everyday reality on the steamship, thus became one of the most important images of maritime modernity.

Abstract Aremarkable part of the current dialogue about youth violence in the United States has been its future orientation. We saw in chapter 1 how the concerns and rhetoric in the mid- 1990s, paralleled earlier alarms in the mid-1970s, with one significant exception. Missing from earlier eras was a focus not on current conditions but on future developments. A large number of analyses began in 1995 to project increases in the volume and severity of youth violence in the first decade of the next century. Statistical analyses of crime trends are projected to the year 2005 or 2010. Demographic data about adolescent populations have been combined with assumptions about the crime rates of future cohorts of teen of fenders. For this reason, projections about the number of teenagers expected in coming years and their social characteristics are important elements in debates about policy.

Chapter 2 introduces the teenagers in this study and provides a précis of the structural conditions of juvenile justice at both field sites. The two systems are contextualized within historical and contemporary developments of juvenile justice in the United States.

This chapter focuses on the developmental issues that impact sleep during infancy and childhood and link to adult sleep. For example, it examines differences in sleep across childhood as well as the relationship of pediatric and adult sleep health and specific issues such as mother–child bedsharing. The chapter discusses the social determinants of sleep for children—for example, increasing screen time and social media involvement, impact of bedtime routines, the mismatch of school hours to the biology of sleep in teenagers (e.g., highlighting that a reason that high schools start at 8 AM in the United States is so that parents can drop them off before they take off on their long commutes to work).

Abstract During the 1940s and 1950s, cigarette smoking rivaled baseball as America’s national pastime. On motion picture screens, cigarettes were depicted as wholly desirable, smoked by the glamorous and sophisticated, by gritty Gis winning World War II, and tilting up at a jaunty angle from President Franklin Roosevelt’s profile. In 1965, 52% of American adult men were cigarette smokers. Now, however, cigarettes are widely castigated as the nation’s number one public health problem. Cigarette manufacturers have been besieged by multimillion and even multibillion dollar lawsuits; their shares trade at a record low price-earnings ratio (Norris 2000). In many cities, office workers who want a cigarette break are forced to huddle outside the building’s doorway. In 1995, only 25% of American adults were smokers, and in many social circles, smoking is regarded as pathological. This remarkable transformation is far from complete. Millions of Americans have not quit smoking, hundreds of thousands continue to die from lung cancer and other diseases each year, and teenagers still join the army of the addicted in disturbingly large numbers. Nevertheless, it seems clear that tobacco, once unchallenged, is now on the defensive, and few would bet that in 25 years the proportion of Americans who smoke cigarettes as we know them will be as high as it is today.

This chapter discusses Hadassah's welfare and education projects. In addition to its involvement in health care, Hadassah was also engaged in a large number of projects to benefit children and teenagers, both during the Mandate period and after the State of Israel was established. These projects were consistent with the perception of appropriate realms of activity for women in the United States since the end of the nineteenth century — nursing (especially within the field of public health), social work, and education — and in this sense expressed Hadassah's identity as a women's organization more than its health and medical projects did. Hadassah's activity in this field also reflected the concerns of the time at which the organization was founded. No previous period in the history of the United States had been so focused on children as the Progressive era (1890–1920), during which many new movements emerged to benefit children and numerous new educational methods were developed. This focus on children and youth had considerable influence on the path that Hadassah took.

Abstract Countries face choices in establishing national systems of employee social insurance and employee benefits. They may rely heavily on private employers to provide for such needs as retirement income and health insurance. They may rely almost entirely on government to meet these needs. Or they may utilize a mix of both approaches. The choice that countries make about these matters ideally should reflect labor-market pressures and the employment relationship. Industrialized countries generally have made basic decisions about social insurance and benefits a long time ago. They are, in a sense, stuck with approaches designed in the past which may or may not accord with modem labor-market conditions. But sometimes events occur which allow reexamination of social insurance and benefit approaches. In particular, the countries which form the European Community (EC) are now wrestling with social issues including the role of social insurance and private employee benefit plans.

English is one of the most spoken languages in the world. A global language communication is inherent in him. This language is also distinguished by a significant diversity of dialects and speech. It appeared in the early Middle Ages as the spoken language of the Anglo-Saxons. The formation of the British Empire and its expansion led to the widespread English language in Asia, Africa, North America and Australia. As a result, the Metropolitan language became the main communication language in the English colonies, and after independence it became State (USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand) and official (India, Nigeria, Singapore). Being one of the 6 Official Languages of the UN, it is studied as a foreign language in educational institutions of many countries in the modern time [1, 2, s. 12-14]. Despite the dozens of varieties of English, the American (American English) version, which appeared on the territory of the United States, is one of the most widespread. More than 80 per cent of the population in this country knows the American version of the British language as its native language. Although the American version of the British language is not defined as the official language in the US Federal Constitution, it acts with features and standards reinforced in the lexical sphere, the media and the education system. The growing political and economic power of the United States after World War II also had a significant impact on the expansion of the American version of the British language [3]. Currently, this language version has become one of the main topics of scientific research in the field of linguistics, philology and other similar spheres. It should also be emphasized that the American version of the British language paved the way for the creation of thousands of words and expressions, took its place in the general language of English and the world lexicon. “Okay”, “teenager”, “hitchhike”, “landslide” and other words can be shown in this row. The impact of differences in the life and life of colonists in the United States and Great Britain on this language was not significant either. The role of Nature, Climate, Environment and lifestyle should also be appreciated here. There is no officially confirmed language accent in the United States. However, most speakers of national media and, first of all, the CNN channel use the dialect “general American accent”. Here, the main accent of “mid Pppemestern” has been guided. It should also be noted that this accent is inherent in a very small part of the U.S. population, especially in Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois. But now all Americans easily understand and speak about it. As for the current state of the American version of the British language, we can say that there are some hypotheses in this area. A number of researchers perceive it as an independent language, others-as an English variant. The founder of American spelling, American and British lexicographer, linguist Noah Pondebster treats him as an independent language. He also tried to justify this in his work “the American Dictionary of English” written in 1828 [4]. This position was expressed by a Scottish-born English philologist, one of the authors of the “American English Dictionary”Sir Alexander Craigie, American linguist Raven ioor McDavid Jr. and others also confirm [5]. The second is the American linguist Leonard Bloomfield, one of the creators of the descriptive direction of structural linguistics, and other American linguists Edward Sapir and Charles Francis Hockett. There is also another group of “third parties” that accept American English as a regional dialect [5, 6]. A number of researchers [2] have shown that the accent or dialect in the US on the person contains significantly less data in itself than in the UK. In Great Britain, a dialect speaker is viewed as a person with a low social environment or a low education. It is difficult to perceive this reality in the US environment. That is, a person's speech in the American version of the British language makes it difficult to express his social background. On the other hand, the American version of the British language is distinguished by its faster pace [7, 8]. One of the main characteristic features of the American language array is associated with the emphasis on a number of letters and, in particular, the pronunciation of the letter “R”. Thus, in British English words like “port”, “more”, “dinner” the letter “R” is not pronounced at all. Another trend is related to the clear pronunciation of individual syllables in American English. Unlike them, the Britons “absorb”such syllables in a number of similar words [8]. Despite all these differences, an analysis of facts and theoretical knowledge shows that the emergence and formation of the American version of the British language was not an accidental and chaotic process. The reality is that the life of the colonialists had a huge impact on American English. These processes were further deepened by the growing migration trends at the later historical stage. Thus, the language of the English-speaking migrants in America has been developed due to historical conditions, adapted to the existing living environment and new life realities. On the other hand, the formation of this independent language was also reflected in the purposeful policy of the newly formed US state. Thus, the original British words were modified and acquired a fundamentally new meaning. Another point here was that the British acharism, which had long been out of use, gained a new breath and actively entered the speech circulation in the United States. Thus, the analysis shows that the American version of the British language has specific features. It was formed and developed as a result of colonization and expansion. This development is still ongoing and is one of the languages of millions of US states and people, as well as audiences of millions of people. Keywords: American English, English, linguistics, accent.

Health disparities encompass a range of factors, including race, ethnicity, gender, age, disability status, and socioeconomic conditions. This project highlights disparities in healthcare access, quality of care, and health outcomes, with a particular focus on racial and ethnic disparities in health insurance coverage, prenatal care, and maternal morbidity. Gender disparities are also evident. Addressing these issues requires a multifaceted approach, including addressing social determinants of health, promoting equitable healthcare policies, and fostering cultural competence. Equitable access to healthcare services, quality care, and improved data collection are essential in eliminating disparities. Initiatives to support underserved communities, improve healthcare quality, and enhance cultural competence are recommended. Research and evidence-based approaches, along with policy reforms at various levels, such as anti-discrimination laws and increased funding for public health, are crucial. Collaboration among healthcare organizations, community groups, government agencies, and advocacy organizations is essential for effective interventions

Abstract In the past decades, financial institutions have led the way for companies to adhere to international standards for social performance. The journey began in the Industrial Revolution, when negative societal business impacts rapidly escalated, which led people to demand for their management. Initially focused on working conditions, impacts on the environment soon started to gain notice. Halfway through the 20th century, a combination of oil spills and mass media attention generated enough public pressure for the United States to sign the first piece of legislation requiring the environmental impact assessment. With this law and its replication abroad, however, came the concern with social impacts as well. Both environmental and social performance expectations soon spread internationally and, by the 1980s, multilateral financial institutions, most prominently the World Bank, incorporated such considerations into their investment and lending practices, which is the source of all such international standards today. These standards require the establishment of a social management system to integrate risk and impact management processes and stakeholder engagement activities. Given the challenge of implementing these requirements, a social risk management development framework is proposed to bring together the extensive and multidisciplinary demands of effective social performance. Five development areas are proposed: governance, social policy, tools, resourcing and capacity, and knowledge sharing. This is an important step to take today as it is expected that the next decades will see these international demands increase, possibly by ever increasing governmental regulation.

Students and practitioners of architecture challenge the hegemonic Whiteness, maleness, cisheteronormativity, and capitalist control of these disciplines as a means of democratizing and decolonizing practice to create conditions for Black self-determination. This paper considers how architectural professionals have responded to contemporary movements for social justice in the United States and the ways in which some are more and some less successful at addressing the intersecting nature of identity-based oppressions. Organizations and convenings, including the National Organization of Minority Architects (NOMA), Black in Design, the Design Futures Public Interest Design Student Leadership Forum, Equity by Design, and the Architecture Lobby are considered from 2012 to the pre-pandemic spring of 2020, with a focus on the emergence of new spaces and shifts in how existing spaces engage with activist movements as a result of changing political conditions. The paper provides historical background and constructive critique. It concludes with recommendations for creating institutions that respond proactively, rather than reactively, to racist violence, sexual harassment, assault, and exploitation, and for making lasting meaning of these injustices when they occur. The roles Black people and other people of color, particularly women, have played, and the roles White people, particularly men, and White institutions must play in creating an antiracist, feminist architecture are a focus of this paper.

The purpose of this research is to learn how youth aged 11–14 understand highly aggregated data about social and economic conditions, especially related to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. We designed an after-school program that introduces students to data broadly in the context of “using data for social good.” Using CODAP, an educational data visualization tool, students explore data about countries’ health and education indicators. We observe that youth are highly engaged with these data yet sometimes struggle to make sense of the aggregate values that hide variability within countries. Using examples from student projects, this paper reports preliminary findings about how youth analyze data aggregated by governmental entities such as countries, states, or cities.

This study aims to identify urban resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, England, and China. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a terrible impact on the lives of many citizens, especially in urban areas. Cities are the central point of economic growth and governance, cities must continue the function even in conditions of crisis or disaster. So that it becomes interesting to review the strategies of big cities in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. This study used a simple statistical method, and bibliometric analysis was performed using VOSviewer software. Scientific literature data was taken from the Scopus database which was searched with the keywords urban resilience and covid 19 with a range of 2019 to 2022. limitations on authors or affiliations of the 3 countries in literature publications, namely the united states, England and China. This analysis includes a number of publications, citation analysis, and visualization of co-occurrence patterns of the most frequently occurring keywords. Bibliometric analysis shows the United States leading the way in article publication with 25 articles, followed by England and China with 15 articles each. The results of data analysis show that the initial strategy of urban resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic in the three countries was carried out by limiting community activities in public spaces to prevent the transmission of the COVID-19 disease. In addition, the urban resilience strategy is carried out by building integrated health services and digital infrastructure and carrying out transportation management. Another strategy is to build public spaces that can provide social distancing and provide easier access to information and communication technology for the entire citizens. In future research, it is hoped that we can discuss how to transform the strategy by adjusting to the style of the city and the needs of the citizens.

В данной статье определены ведущие тенденции развития Российской Федерации в условиях введённых санкций, рассмотрен вопрос их влияния на различные сферы жизни общества и обозначены пути решения возникших проблем. Высказываются рекомендации по преодолению санкций и развитию в новых политических и экономических реалиях отдельных отраслей социально-экономической политики российского государства — здравоохранения, социального обеспечения, образования, туризма, экономики и др. Перечисляется перечень возможных последствий от введённых санкций, как положительных, так и отрицательных. Научная новизна работы заключается в том, что на Российскую Федерацию в настоящее время ежедневно накладываются всё новые и новые пакеты санкций со стороны ряда европейских государств и США. Целью исследования является изучение информации о сложившейся в настоящее время ситуации в нашем государстве и последующее определение влияния на обстановку в стране введённых санкций, последствиями которых выступают уходы с российского рынка многочисленных компаний. Проанализировав статью, можно сделать краткие выводы: 1. Тенденция импортозамещения позволит нашему государству выйти на новый экономический уровень, стать независимым от европейского рынка, а также снизить общий уровень цен на российском рынке. 2. Малый и средний бизнес при нынешних условиях лишается большей части конкурентов и получает стимул на развитие, в том числе в сфере туризма. 3. Политическая сфера также получает шанс на развитие посредством поднятия рейтинга доверия населения к действующей власти. 4. Санкции положили начало модернизации права в социальной сфере, так как осуществляется принятие новых законов по степени возникновения новых санкций. 5. Единственной отрицательной особенностью выступает психологическая атмосфера населения – повышается общая тревожность в обществе. Однако, при ускоренном развитии всех вышеперечисленных сфер, это явление быстро пойдёт на спад, так как в таком случае люди убедятся в незначительности последствий санкций. This article identifies the leading trends in the development of the Russian Federation under the imposed sanctions, examines the issue of their impact on various spheres of society and identifies ways to solve the problems that have arisen. Recommendations are made on overcoming sanctions and developing certain branches of the socio-economic policy of the Russian state in the new political and economic realities — healthcare, social security, education, tourism, economy, etc. The list of possible consequences from the imposed sanctions, both positive and negative, is listed. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the fact that new and new packages of sanctions from a number of European states and the United States are being imposed on the Russian Federation every day. The purpose of the study is to study information about the current situation in our country and the subsequent determination of the impact on the situation in the country of the sanctions imposed, the consequences of which are the departures from the Russian market of numerous companies. After analyzing the article, we can draw brief conclusions: 1. The trend of import substitution will allow our state to reach a new economic level, become independent from the European market, and also reduce the overall price level in the Russian market. 2. Under the current conditions, small and medium-sized businesses lose most of their competitors and receive an incentive to develop, including in the tourism sector. 3. The political sphere also gets a chance to develop by raising the rating of public confidence in the current government. 4. Sanctions marked the beginning of the modernization of law in the social sphere, as the adoption of new laws is carried out according to the degree of occurrence of new sanctions. 5. The only negative feature is the psychological atmosphere of the population – the general anxiety in society increases. However, with the accelerated development of all of the above areas, this phenomenon will quickly decline, since in this case people will be convinced of the insignificance of the consequences of sanctions.

"Police officers are some of the first professionals that might have direct interaction with individuals with mental illnesses. Statistics show that from 2017 to 2020 about 3986 individuals in the United States were fatally shot by police officers (Statista, 2021). These reports indicate that at least 25% and as many as 50% of all fatal shootings involved individuals with untreated severe mental illness. The purpose of this pilot study was to test the effectiveness of a five-day psycho-educational mental health awareness training in enhancing law enforcement officers’ knowledge about mental illness, and their perceptions towards mentally ill individuals using a pretest-posttest design. The Community Attitudes Towards the Mentally Ill (CAMI) scale was used to measure participants’four mental health attitudinal domains - authoritarianism, benevolence, social restrictiveness, and community mental health ideology. The results indicate that at the completion of the training there was an increase in participants’ confidence about their knowledge of the mentally ill individuals and mental illness conditions. However, the results also indicate a slight decrease in participants' mental illness social restrictiveness sentiment after the completion of the training. Additionally, the results also show a correlation between demographic variables and some of the domains. Implications for practice are discussed."

Recent high profile exposure and rupture of pipelines at river crossings in the United States (U.S.) has raised the awareness of riverine hazards and the corresponding risks of operating pipeline river crossings. The decadal tendencies for rivers to change vertically (i.e. scour and deposition) and horizontally (i.e. channel migration) increases the risk to ageing pipeline systems. The corresponding cost of the consequences from potential exposures, damages or even ruptures at river crossings has re-defined the risk regime for planning, permitting, designing, installing, operating, and regulating river crossings. Pipeline systems installed decades ago frequently did not incorporate state of the art hydrotechnical engineering approaches, and did not address long-term channel scour and erosion dynamics, instead setting sagbends and burial depths relative to active (i.e. short term) channel conditions and not planning for long-term geomorphic trends. Planning for river crossing routing assessments now include increasing awareness of how riverine systems function. Hydrotechnical studies incorporate hydrologic, hydraulic, and fluvial geomorphic assessments and investigations, as well as environmental, social, and land inputs to the planning, permitting, design and construction processes. Recent high profile damage, exposure, and in some cases rupture of pipelines in river crossings has brought these issues into the public domain. Pipeline regulatory agencies and congressional oversight in the U.S. has responded to recent pipeline incidents in dynamic riverine conditions with increased permit planning, design and operation requirements. This paper will discuss the ways changing rivers are resulting in increasing challenges for pipeline operators, and discusses how Williams Northwest Pipeline (NWP) has implemented several practical mitigation measures to proactively address river crossing risks.

The current international environment, viewed from a geopolitical and geoeconomic point of view, is characterized by unpredictability and heightened dynamism. After the Second World War, the theoretical and doctrinal landscape was marked by an increasing openness to the concepts of harmony, cooperation, structural peace, prohibition of war. The UN is a symbol of multilateralism and sustained worldwide efforts for peace, security and sustainable development. Strategic autonomy, national security and other non-economic objectives (environmental sustainability, protection of workers and human rights) motivate calls for collaboration between countries with similar political-economic values and systems. In today's conditions, security considerations have already become more prominent in trade relations. Since the end of the 90s, several scenarios have been proposed for the reform of the United Nations: the reform of the Security Council, the reform of the UN Secretariat, the financial reform, the reform of human rights, the reform of operational activities and, last but not least, the reform of the Economic Council and Social. The research methodology uses various research methods: the logical analysis method, the systemic method, the comparative method, the historical method, the situation analysis used in geopolitical theory and the stakeholder analysis to understand the positions and perspectives of the players (stakeholders) who have an interest and/or likely to be affected by a particular reform, as well as to outline the prospects for reform and how particular states/organizations might influence the outcome of the process.

This paper investigates the importance of the age composition for pandemic policy design. To do so, it introduces an economic framework with age heterogeneity, individual choice, and incomplete information, emphasizing the value of testing. Calibrating the model to the US Covid-19 pandemic reveals an 80% reduction in death toll due to voluntary actions and the lockdown implemented in the United States. The optimal lockdown, however, is more stringent than what was implemented in the United States. Moreover, the social planner follows an asymmetric approach by locking down the young relatively more than the old. We underscore the importance of testing, showing its impact on reduced deaths, lower economic costs and laxer lockdown. We use the framework to provide systematic insights into pandemics caused by different viruses (among others the Spanish flu), and underline the influence of economic conditions on optimal policies.

Thus far in reporting the findings of our project “Fifty Years After: Black Employment in the United States Under the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission,” our analysis of what has happened to African American employment over the past half century has documented the importance of manufacturing employment to the upward socioeconomic mobility of Blacks in the 1960s and 1970s and the devastating impact of rationalization—the permanent elimination of blue-collar employment—on their socioeconomic mobility in the 1980s and beyond. The upward mobility of Blacks in the earlier decades was based on the Old Economy business model (OEBM) with its characteristic “career-with-one-company” (CWOC) employment relations. At its launching in 1965, the policy approach of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission assumed the existence of CWOC, providing corporate employees, Blacks included, with a potential path for upward socioeconomic mobility over the course of their working lives by gaining access to productive opportunities and higher pay through stable employment within companies. It was through these internal employment structures that Blacks could potentially overcome barriers to the long legacy of job and pay discrimination. In the 1960s and 1970s, the generally growing availability of unionized semiskilled jobs gave working people, including Blacks, the large measure of employment stability as well as rising wages and benefits characteristic of the lower levels of the middle class. The next stage in this process of upward socioeconomic mobility should have been—and in a nation as prosperous as the United States could have been—the entry of the offspring of the new Black blue-collar middle class into white-collar occupations requiring higher educations. Despite progress in the attainment of college degrees, however, Blacks have had very limited access to the best employment opportunities as professional, technical, and administrative personnel at U.S. technology companies. Since the 1980s, the barriers to African American upward socioeconomic mobility have occurred within the context of the marketization (the end of CWOC) and globalization (accessibility to transnational labor supplies) of high-tech employment relations in the United States. These new employment relations, which stress interfirm labor mobility instead of intrafirm employment structures in the building of careers, are characteristic of the rise of the New Economy business model (NEBM), as scrutinized in William Lazonick’s 2009 book, Sustainable Prosperity in the New Economy? Business Organization and High-Tech Employment in the United States (Upjohn Institute). In this paper, we analyze the exclusion of Blacks from STEM (science, technology, engineering, math) occupations, using EEO-1 employment data made public, voluntarily and exceptionally, for various years between 2014 and 2020 by major tech companies, including Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Cisco, Facebook (now Meta), Hewlett Packard Enterprise, HP Inc., Intel, Microsoft, PayPal, Salesforce, and Uber. These data document the vast over-representation of Asian Americans and vast under-representation of African Americans at these tech companies in recent years. The data also shine a light on the racial, ethnic, and gender composition of large masses of lower-paid labor in the United States at leading U.S. tech companies, including tens of thousands of sales workers at Apple and hundreds of thousands of laborers & helpers at Amazon. In the cases of Hewlett-Packard, IBM, and Intel, we have access to EEO-1 data from earlier decades that permit in-depth accounts of the employment transitions that characterized the demise of OEBM and the rise of NEBM. Given our findings from the EEO-1 data analysis, our paper then seeks to explain the enormous presence of Asian Americans and the glaring absence of African Americans in well-paid employment under NEBM. A cogent answer to this question requires an understanding of the institutional conditions that have determined the availability of qualified Asians and Blacks to fill these employment opportunities as well as the access of qualified people by race, ethnicity, and gender to the employment opportunities that are available. Our analysis of the racial/ethnic determinants of STEM employment focuses on a) stark differences among racial and ethnic groups in educational attainment and performance relevant to accessing STEM occupations, b) the decline in the implementation of affirmative-action legislation from the early 1980s, c) changes in U.S. immigration policy that favored the entry of well-educated Asians, especially with the passage of the Immigration Act of 1990, and d) consequent social barriers that qualified Blacks have faced relative to Asians and whites in accessing tech employment as a result of a combination of statistical discrimination against African Americans and their exclusion from effective social networks.

Background. In the United States, patients referred to as high-need, high-cost (HNHC) constitute a very small percentage of the patient population but account for a disproportionally high level of healthcare use and cost. Payers, health systems, and providers would like to improve the quality of care and health outcomes for HNHC patients and reduce their costly use of potentially preventable or modifiable healthcare services, including emergency department (ED) and hospital visits. Methods. We assessed evidence of criteria that identify HNHC patients (best fit framework synthesis); developed program theories on the relationship among contexts, mechanisms, and outcomes of interventions intended to change HNHC patient behaviors (realist review); and assessed the effectiveness of interventions (systematic review). We searched databases, gray literature, and other sources for evidence available from January 1, 2000, to March 4, 2021. We included quantitative and qualitative studies of HNHC patients (high healthcare use or cost) age 18 and over who received intervention services in a variety of settings. Results. We included 110 studies (117 articles). Consistent with our best fit framework, characteristics associated with HNHC include patient chronic clinical conditions, behavioral health factors including depression and substance use disorder, and social risk factors including homelessness and poverty. We also identified prior healthcare use and race as important predictors. We found limited evidence of approaches for distinguishing potentially preventable or modifiable high use from all high use. To understand how and why interventions work, we developed three program theories in our realist review that explain (1) targeting HNHC patients, (2) engaging HNHC patients, and (3) engaging care providers in these interventions. Theories identify the need for individualizing and tailoring services for HNHC patients and the importance of building trusting relationships. For our systematic review, we categorized evidence based on primary setting. We found that ED-, primary care–, and home-based care models result in reduced use of healthcare services (moderate to low strength of evidence [SOE]); ED, ambulatory intensive caring unit, and primary care-based models result in reduced costs (low SOE); and system-level transformation and telephonic/mail models do not result in changes in use or costs (low SOE). Conclusions. Patient characteristics can be used to identify patients who are potentially HNHC. Evidence focusing specifically on potentially preventable or modifiable high use was limited. Based on our program theories, we conclude that individualized and tailored patient engagement and resources to support care providers are critical to the success of interventions. Although we found evidence of intervention effectiveness in relation to cost and use, the studies identified in this review reported little information for determining why individual programs work, for whom, and when.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.