Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Supplier’s evaluation“

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Zeitschriftenartikel zum Thema "Supplier’s evaluation"

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Kimani, Mary Nyambura, und Dr Patrick Mwangangi. „INFLUENCE OF SUPPLIER EVALUATION CRITERIA ON PERFORMANCE OF METALS AND ALLIED FIRMS IN KENYA“. International Journal of Supply Chain and Logistics 2, Nr. 1 (26.10.2018): 93. http://dx.doi.org/10.47941/ijscl.v2i1.255.

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Purpose: This study aimed at examining the influence of supplier evaluation on performance of metal and allied firms in Kenya by focusing on supplier’s financial capability, supplier’s regulatory compliance, supplier’s technical capability and supplier’s level of human resource competency. The study was guided by Lean Supplier Competence Model, Institutional Theory, Resource Based Theory and Social Exchange Theory.Methodology: The population target of the study comprised of 213 respondents drawn from managerial, supervisory and junior positions in procurement departments in all 71 metal and allied firms in Kenya. The study adopted a census method where it included all members of the target population. Questionnaires and data collection sheets were used to collect primary and secondary data respectively. The collected data was coded and analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively through Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 21. Data was analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics where regression analysis was used to establish the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable. Descriptive and inferential results were presented in form of tables and figures. Pilot study was conducted prior data collection to test reliability and validity of data collection instruments.Results: The findings of the study revealed that supplier’s financial capability, supplier’s regulatory compliance, supplier’s technical capability and supplier’s level of human resource competence have a positive and significant influence on performance of metal and allied firms in Kenya.Recommendations: The study recommends that metal and allied firms should focus on supplier’s financial capability, supplier’s regulatory compliance, supplier’s technical capability and supplier’s level of human resource competence when conducting supplier’s evaluation since the practices have a positive and significant influence on performance of metal and allied firms.
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Han, Guanghua, Ming Dong und Qi Sun. „Managing Distrust-Induced Risk with Deposit in Supply Chain Contract Decisions“. Scientific World Journal 2014 (2014): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/961394.

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This paper studies the trust issue in a two-echelon supply chain information sharing process. In a supply chain, the retailer reports the forecasted demand to the supplier. Traditionally, the supplier’s trust in the retailer’s reported information is based on the retailer’s reputation. However, this paper considers that trust is random and is also affected by the reputation and the demand gap. The supplier and retailer have been shown to have different evaluations regarding the degree of trust. Furthermore, distrust is inherently linked to perceived risk. To mitigate perceived risk, a two-stage decision process with an unpayback deposit contract is proposed. At the first stage, the supplier and the retailer negotiate the deposit contract. At the second stage, a Stackelberg game is used to determine the retailer’s reported demand and the supplier’s production quantity. We show that the deposits from the retailer’s and supplier’s perspectives are different. When the retailer’s reported demand is equal to the supplier’s forecasted demand, the retailer’s evaluation of the deposit is more than that of supplier’s. When the retailer’s reported demand is equal to the retailer’s forecasted demand, the deposit from the retailer’s perspective is at the lowest level.
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Chytilová, Ekaterina, und Marie Jurová. „The application of method supplier’s complex evaluation. Case study“. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 60, Nr. 7 (2012): 139–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201260070139.

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The main goal of this article includes the illustration of selecting bidders evaluation with help Method of complex evaluation of suppliers (MCE). Nowadays the evaluation of suppliers has more importance is in the supply chain management. For SMEs with discontinuous custom manufacturing supplier evaluation at first stage becomes a priority to maintain and enhance the competitiveness of farm output and overall competitiveness. This article presents results of control MCE. The results of this article are results of suppliers’ evaluation conditions and eliminations of MCE application on the base of real enterprise data. MCE is oriented to small and medium-sized enterprises with discontinue manufacturing to order. Research is oriented to selecting procedure of existing suppliers at the first stage of supply chain. Nationality and geographic location haven’t importance to MCE application. Illustrative case study presents the evaluation process to the specific conditions and subsequently demonstrated viability of MCE.
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Lau, Henry, Dilupa Nakandala und Paul Kwok Shum. „A business process decision model for fresh-food supplier evaluation“. Business Process Management Journal 24, Nr. 3 (04.06.2018): 716–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/bpmj-01-2016-0015.

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Purpose Frequent food safety incidents caused widespread consumer concerns. Even though food safety is one of the weakest links in the fresh food supply chain and influences consumer food choice in ways different from the quality dimension, this factor is hardly proposed as one of the key traditional supplier selection criteria (e.g. quality, delivery, and price) in the literature. The purpose of this paper is to develop a business process decision model to assess the non-compensating food safety sub-criteria in order to disqualify fresh food suppliers that cannot reach the minimum threshold for low probable food safety failure. The preferred fresh food suppliers can minimize the risk of food safety failure and the associated huge food safety failure costs spanning from private consumer anguish to social distress that cause unbearable costs of sales loss and damage to brand image in business. Design/methodology/approach This study proposes a novel approach that combines several well-established multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques, including fuzzy AHP (FAHP), TOPSIS, and ELECTRE, and innovatively apply to analyze supplier performance and prioritize potential fresh food suppliers. This hybrid business process model can enforce compliance to all the five non-compensatory sub-criteria of food safety. Since ELECTRE is a non-compensatory MCDM method, it is therefore particularly applicable for disqualifying high risk fresh food suppliers from further full scale supplier performance evaluation by FAHP and TOPSIS. This hybrid business process decision model is able to capitalize on the strengths of these MCDM methods and offset their deficiencies. Findings This study uses data of an international supermarket chain to validate feasibility of the proposed model. Results indicate that this model is able to assess the non-compensating food safety sub-criteria via the ELECTRE method in order to disqualify fresh food suppliers that cannot reach the minimum threshold for low probable food safety failure. Only the preferred suppliers with the required food safety capability can proceed to the second stage of the supplier selection process. Assessment via the TOPSIS method reveals the ranking order of those top performing suppliers according to their relative scores along all the supplier selection criteria. The TOPSIS ranking results with the selection of the suppliers C, E, A, and F are robust and consistent across all the different scenarios. Practical implications Application to the fresh food industry is possible with the aid of the MCDM methods. The contribution to the body of knowledge in this teaching and research field demonstrates the importance of first identifying the order qualifier for disqualifying those suppliers that do not satisfy the food safety requirements via the ELECTRE method. The proposed assessment procedure complies with the regulatory policy on food safety, and would influence public policy in applying the best practice of food safety regulation. Without first qualifying the potential suppliers on the basis of food safety, wrong decision can be made to select those high food risk suppliers that have relatively higher overall scores in other supplier selection criteria. Using the assessment results has positive economic and commercial impact on the purchasing managers to formulate appropriate purchasing and supplier development strategy to enhance supplier’s food safety performance, whilst maximizing the overall supplier portfolio performance. The improved supplier’s food safety performance will certainly benefit the society’s quality of life as well. Originality/value Based on the analytical MCDM methods of FAHP, TOPSIS, and ELECTRE, purchasing managers can operationalize the Hill’s framework of order qualifier and winner that has primarily been used in the literature and manufacturing industry. This study represents the first move to innovatively apply the FAHP, TOPSIS, and ELECTRE methods to operationalize the Hill’s framework of order qualifier and winner that has primarily been used in the literature and manufacturing industry. Application to the fresh food industry to validate the feasibility of the proposed model has been conceived and implemented in this study. Analysis of the data inputs of a supermarket chain via the three MCDM methods generate the results that fulfill the purpose of achieving the research objective of identifying and managing the supplier base that can deliver the best supplier performance, conditional on first passing the fresh food safety test.
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Xu, Hao, Liuxin Chen, Qiongfang Li und Jianchao Yang. „A Multi-Attribute Decision Method under Uncertainty Environment Conditions—The Green Supplier Evaluation Perspective“. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, Nr. 1 (05.01.2021): 344. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18010344.

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Due to the continuous changes of political environment, consumption habits, technological progress and other factors, the external environment of enterprises is full of uncertainty. The turbulence of external environment is not conducive to the long-term operation and development of enterprises, but also brings great challenges to the selection of suppliers. This makes the competition of enterprises focus on how to choose long-term cooperation suppliers in the uncertain external environment. In addition, due to the deterioration of the global environment, governments pay more and more attention to environmental pollution, and consumers are more and more inclined to green consumption, which makes many companies pay more and more attention to environmental indicators when selecting suppliers. In the case of external environment turbulence and serious environmental pollution, the evaluation and selection of green suppliers in uncertain environment is particularly important for the long-term development of enterprises. What’s more, when the supplier’s capability gap is small, the decision-maker often hesitates among several suppliers. In this paper, the hesitant fuzzy is used to describe the hesitant psychology of decision-makers in selecting suppliers, the variance fluctuation is used to describe the characteristics of hesitant fuzzy numbers, and the probability is used to measure the uncertainty of the environment. A green supplier evaluation model under the uncertainty environment is proposed, which comprehensively evaluates the green suppliers under the uncertain environment. Furthermore, it is compared with other methods that do not consider the uncertainty and the adaptability of evaluation method and right confirmation method, so as to reflect the influence of uncertainty to green supplier evaluation and the importance of adaptability of evaluation method and right confirmation method.
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Tang, Jia-Wei, und Tsuen-Ho Hsu. „A fuzzy preference relations model for evaluating key supplier relationships in TFT-LCD TV panel manufacturing industry“. Management Decision 53, Nr. 8 (21.09.2015): 1858–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/md-12-2014-0691.

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Purpose – Interest in investigating key supplier relationships from both academic and corporate spheres has increased in recent years. However, it is difficult to develop a sustainable and effective model for evaluating key supplier relationships because the information available in the practical environment is often uncertain and asymmetric. The purpose of this paper is to identify critical factors concerning key suppliers selection derive from resource-based view and construct a hierarchical evaluation framework which has elements of implied change or transformation of the firm’s resources for operation strategies when evaluating key suppliers relationships. Moreover, the authors propose a fuzzy preference relations (FPR) model, with a hierarchical evaluation framework, to address the imprecise and inconsistent information used by managers to evaluate key supplier relationships and further to select appropriate suppliers. Design/methodology/approach – The FPR model based on the consistent FPR methodology not only provides an efficient and systematic evaluation for key supplier relationships by using the performance and evaluation scores of each key supplier, but also solves problems arising from the conventional multi-criteria analysis approach. This methodology is faster to execute and enhance the consistency and accuracy with regard to the decision makers’ judgments. To illustrate how the model is created and assessed, the authors use the TFT-LCD TV panel manufacturing industry as an empirical subject. Findings – The FPR model holds promise for assisting TFT-LCD TV manufacturers in evaluating key supplier relationships with TFT-LCD TV panel suppliers. The findings indicate that first, “the supplier’s product quality” is the most important factor when evaluating key supplier relationships, followed by “selling price set by the supplier” and “specialized supplier development capability”; second, after the 1980s, all suppliers had similar delivery capabilities with only small differences in delivery times, such that the relative importance of “time required for shipments” has become less significant, and customer awareness of the “customer assistance and service” factor has been heightened; third, the provision of excellent product quality and attractive low prices by suppliers requires technical capability, therefore, from the perspectives of industry experts, “specialized supplier development capability” is far more important than “time required for shipments”; and fourth, TFT-LCD TV manufacturers need to focus on their product quality performance continually, and concentrate on applying process technology strategy as well as product and service development strategy to build up “difficult to imitate resources” for competitive advantages. Originality/value – The main contribution is to provide managers with an efficient and systematic model that can evaluate the performance of key supplier relationships in terms of critical factors derived from resource-based theories. By focussing on employing the proposed model with successful management for key supplier relationships, the authors hope to help buying companies improve the benefits of supplier relationships. Because of the uncertainties and complexities of real strategy making in TFT-LCD TV panel industry, the authors offer a model that implicitly assume that managers can have influences over the strategic direction of their organization.
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Chen, Kuen-Suan, Shui-Chuan Chen, Ting-Hsin Hsu, Min-Yi Lin und Chih-Feng Wu. „Fuzzy Evaluation Model of Process Improvement Capability with Costs Consideration“. Applied Sciences 11, Nr. 10 (11.05.2021): 4344. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app11104344.

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The Taguchi capability index, which reflects the expected loss and the yield of a process, is a useful index for evaluating the quality of a process. Several scholars have proposed a process improvement capability index based on the expected value of the Taguchi loss function as well as the corresponding cost of process improvement. There have been a number of studies using the Taguchi capability index to develop suppliers’ process quality evaluation models, whereas models for evaluating suppliers’ process improvement potential have been relatively lacking. Thus, this study applies the process improvement capability index to develop an evaluation model of the supplier’s process improvement capability, which can be provided to the industry for application. Besides, owing to the current need to respond quickly, coupled with cost considerations and the limits of technical capabilities, the sample size for sampling testing is usually not large. Consequently, the evaluation model of the process improvement capability developed in this study adopts a fuzzy testing method based on the confidence interval. This method reduces the risk of misjudgment due to sampling errors and improves the testing accuracy because it can incorporate experts and their accumulated experiences.
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Yazdani, Morteza, Prasenjit Chatterjee, Dragan Pamucar und Manuel Doval Abad. „A risk-based integrated decision-making model for green supplier selection“. Kybernetes 49, Nr. 4 (31.05.2019): 1229–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/k-09-2018-0509.

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Purpose Supply chain (SC) environment is surrounded by risk variables. This issue is regarded as an emerging and strategic problem which must be resolved by SC executives. The ability to measuring green supplier’s performance and affecting risk variables to demonstrating effective suppliers list has a potential contribution to be investigated. This paper aims to develop a decision-making model to assess green suppliers under legislation and risk factors. This leads to fewer disruptions in managing the SC and its impact to further improvement. It also presents research concepts forming a new approach for identification, prediction and understating relationship of supply risk. Design/methodology/approach At primal stage, different risk factors that influence green suppliers’ performance are indicated and their relationship is analyzed using decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method. At the same time, failure mode and effect analysis is used to determine risk rating of each supplier. Finally, the evaluation based on distance from average solution (EDAS) method ranks suppliers and several comparisons and analysis are performed to test the stability of the results. The approaches include comparison to technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution, multi-attributive border approximation area comparison, Vlse Kriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje and complex proportional assessment methods, followed by analysis of rank reversal, weight sensitivity analysis and effect of dynamic metrics. Findings A real-time case study on green supplier selection (GSS) problem of a reputed construction company of Spain has been presented to demonstrate the practical aspects of the proposed method. In practice, though organizations are aware of various risks from local and global suppliers, it is difficult to incorporate these risk factors for ranking the suppliers. This real-case application shows the evaluation and incorporation of risk factors into the supplier selection model. Practical implications The proposed multi-criteria decision model quantitatively aids managers in selecting green suppliers considering risk factors. Originality/value A new model has been developed to present a sound mathematical model for solving GSS problems which considers the interaction between the supplier selection risk factors by proposing an integrated analytical approach for selecting green suppliers strategically consisting of DEMATEL, FMEA and EDAS methods.
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Sepadyati, Nova. „An Exploration of Risks Involved in Managing Supplier Portfolio in Multinational Companies Operating in Indonesia“. Jurnal Teknik Industri 21, Nr. 2 (16.12.2019): 79–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.9744/jti.21.2.79-90.

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Purpose -- The purpose of this qualitative study is to find out how companies manage their relationship with different suppliers to ensure their performance. The aim of the research is to understand how supplier portfolio affects companies’ decision both in selecting and managing the relationship with their suppliers.Design/methodology/approach -- A case study approach is employed to undertake the research, where data collected from semi-structure interviews and companies’ reports.Findings -- Presents indications from a study of three MNCs in FMCG sector in Indonesia regarding their practices in managing risks involved in supplier portfolio. Supplier evaluation criteria still limited on operational criteria, and supplier selection is influenced by politics and buyer’s previous experience. Key risks perceived by companies mainly regarding unperformed suppliers as expected and supplier’s opportunistic behavior, and unstable economic/political condition. Using portfolio model, current relationship with their suppliers is mapped. Most of the companies have not aligned the type of their relationship with the appropriate type of contract and performance measurement. Moreover, a formal supplier rating has not found in all companies, let alone supplier development initiativesResearch limitations -- There are several limitations of the research approach including researcher’s personal bias, limited access to companies and time constraints.Practical implications -- The research findings highlight the implications of applying relationship portfolio model in a practical setting. As well as identifying the key risks in the relationship, the research highlights strategies such as periodic bidding, gaining updated information about suppliers, and setting median price.Originality -- There have not been any studies regarding risk management in a buyer-supplier relationship in MNCs from developed countries operating in emerging country, particularly in Indonesia. The findings have given the first explanation of what companies perceived as key risks in managing their supplier portfolio in the specific context.
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Cannavacciuolo, Lorella, Luca Iandoli, Cristina Ponsiglione und Giuseppe Zollo. „Knowledge elicitation and mapping in the design of a decision support system for the evaluation of suppliers’ competencies“. VINE 45, Nr. 4 (09.11.2015): 530–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/vine-01-2015-0011.

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Purpose – This paper aims to present a methodology for the mapping and evaluation of suppliers’ competencies and know-how. The authors operationalize the concept of organizational competence and provide companies with a customized management tool to map suppliers’ critical competencies for screening strategic from non-strategic suppliers and providing inputs for suppliers’ development. Design/methodology/approach – Competencies assessment, carried out through a fuzzy knowledge management system (VINCI), is performed through the aggregation of indicators related to the control of critical resources, the degree of implementation of critical processes, the competitive positioning and the financial situation of a supplier. Competencies description and operationalization are based on the bottom-up elicitation of the subjective knowledge managers actually use to assess suppliers’ capability. Such subjective knowledge is then validated and formalized through a top-down approach based on strategic literature. Findings – The authors tested VINCI on a sample of 38 suppliers of a large company. The results show that the methodology provides its users with a highly customizable knowledge map and its associated decision support tool that keeps into account the peculiar strategic needs of the company in the management of an existing portfolio of suppliers. Practical implications – VINCI outcomes can be used to perform benchmarking analyses, define entry criteria and thresholds for suppliers’, identify improvement targets and service levels to be considered in the definition of supply contracts, supporting the alignment of supplier’s management with business strategy. Originality/value – The most important original contribution of this work resides in the operationalization and measurements of firms’ competencies based on the elicitation of subjective knowledge that managers use in the actual assessment. A further distinctive feature of this paper is that the method is applied to small and medium companies, whereas large part of the literature on core or organizational competencies assessment is focused on large companies.
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Dissertationen zum Thema "Supplier’s evaluation"

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Hudcová, Anna. „Návrhy změn metodiky hodnocení dodavatelů“. Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta podnikatelská, 2018. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-442564.

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This diploma thesis is about supplier’s evaluation for company which I chosen. The theoretical part deals with quality, instruments of quality, management of quality and is about the basic information about the suppliers. The practical part analyzes actual status of company in supplier rating. The conclusion and results of this diploma thesis are focused on proposal possible changes and are focused on relief and for improvement the supplier rating in company.
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Soares, Bruno André Rodrigues. „Estudo da aplicação de uma metodologia multicritério na seleção de fornecedores : método AHP“. Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/21622.

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Mestrado em Ciências Empresariais
A presente dissertação tem como objetivo o estudo e aplicação das metodologias multicritério de apoio à decisão para a avaliação e seleção de fornecedores numa empresa de construção civil, sendo que interligado a esse, procurou reduzir-se os riscos da seleção incorreta de um fornecedor, potencializando e maximizando as relações a médio/longo prazo. Considerando as alterações imputadas à avaliação de fornecedores nos últimos anos, bem como a integração de múltiplos critérios de seleção ao invés somente do critério preço, levaram nos a desenvolver este estudo. Este caso da empresa “ABC”, permitiu verificar e estudar diretamente os problemas da seleção de fornecedores aplicados ao meio empresarial. De modo a encadear todo o processo, foi realizada uma revisão de literatura, tendo em vista a perceção do estado de arte, bem como adquirir conhecimentos relativos aos métodos multicritério e critérios habitualmente utlizados na avaliação de fornecedores. A partir dessa revisão de literatura, foi escolhido o método AHP - Analytic Hierarchy Process para determinar qual o melhor fornecedor de sistemas de ar condicionado (Aquecimento, Ventilação e Ar Condicionado – AVAC) para a empresa “ABC”. A definição de critérios foi realizada tendo em conta as preferências da empresa “ABC” relativamente aos seus fornecedores, tendo sido possível definir 5 critérios imprescindíveis. A seleção e execução do método AHP, foi determinante para a triagem dos fornecedores, sendo possível determinar qual o mais benéfico para a empresa, em cinco fornecedores possíveis que se candidataram a este processo. O trabalho desenvolvido constitui um contributo importante para a avaliação e seleção de fornecedores na empresa “ABC”, pelo seu valor, bem como pela forma como permitirá a resolução dos problemas de decisão com diferentes critérios.
This thesis aims to study and apply the multi-criteria methodologies of decision support for supplier’s evaluation and selection in a civil construction company. Connected to this, it was sought to reduce the risks of the incorrect selection of a supplier, enhancing and maximizing relationships in the medium / long term. Considering the changes assigned to supplier’s evaluation in the recent years, as well as the integration of multiple selection criteria instead of only the price criterion, led us to develop this study. This case of the company “ABC” allowed us to verify and directly study the problems of supplier’s selection applied to the business environment. To link the whole process, a literature review was carried out, aiming at the perception of the state of the art, as well as to acquire knowledge regarding multi-criteria methods and criteria commonly used in supplier’s evaluation. From this literature review, the AHP - Analytic Hierarchy Process method was chosen to determine the best HVAC (Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) supplier for company "ABC". The definition of criteria was carried out considering the preferences of the company "ABC" regarding its supplier’s, and it was possible to define 5 essential criteria. The selection and execution of the AHP method, was decisive for supplier’s screening, being possible to determine which is the most beneficial for the company, in five possible suppliers who applied for this process. The work carried out constitutes an important contribution to supplier’s evaluation and selection in the company “ABC”, due to its value, as well as the way in which it will allow the resolution of decision problems with different criteria.
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Smith, Brandon Wayne. „Constructing a supplier score card to evaluate the performance of export suppliers in the food & beverage industry“. Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/22001.

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Mehmood, Tallat, und Farnaz Khodabandeh. „Ranking suppliers by using the Sustainable Supplier Evaluation Criteria (SSEC) and Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods“. Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för ekonomistyrning och logistik (ELO), 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-64703.

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Background: Despite the competition for achieving lower costs and higher profits, companies are nowadays becoming increasingly aware of the environmental and social impacts of their operations. This is unveiled by growing numbers of sustainable activities in companies’ reports. Companies’ are also under more pressure from authorities and public to increase their business’s environmental performance, a so-called sustainable management process. Besides the pressure for developing environmental responsible activities, companies still remain with their low cost measures. Hence, they are concerned with the issue of identifying suitable measures to assess their sustainability.Supplier selection, processes by which companies evaluate, select and maintain their suppliers, regarded as one of the major operations affecting companies sustainable performance. While supplier selection was often performed in the past using conventional measures, there is an essential need to develop a framework for sustainable supplier selection in supply chain. By doing this research the company can ensure its operations are in line with environmental and social regulations and requirements. Research questions: - What is the important and applicable sustainable supplier evaluation criteria (SSEC) that could be applied? - What Multi criteria decision making method (MCDM) is suitable for evaluating and ranking the suppliers? - How would Renault group in Iran rank the supplier against the sustainable supplier evaluation criteria (SSEC)? - Which Sustainable supplier evaluation criteria (SSEC) could help the lowest ranked supplier to improve its sustainability performance? Purpose: The purpose of this research is to develop important and applicable sustainable supplier evaluation criteria (SSEC) and find out the multi criteria decision making method (MCDM) for ranking the suppliers. Furthermore, it also suggests to the manger to improve the sustainability performance of lower ranked suppliers. Method: The empirical data and the conclusions made from Renault Group in Iran are based on qualitative case study. This thesis is written from a positivistic perspective with a deductive approach. Conclusions: The main conclusions of this study are as below: - Developing a comprehensive list of attributes including the most important and applicable Sustainable Supplier Evaluation Criteria (SSEC) for evaluating sustainability performance of supplier for Renault Company in Iran. - TOPSIS is evaluated MCDM method to rank the suppliers against SSEC in Renault group in Iran. - The suppliers of the company are ranked and the best and the weakest supplier are determined using the TOPSIS. - The lowest ranked supplier is showed which SSEC could improve its performance by applying a parametric analysis.
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Kováčová, Zuzana. „Využití prostředků umělé inteligence pro podporu rozhodování v podniku“. Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta podnikatelská, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-222909.

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This Master's thesis deals with using the theory of fuzzy logic in building up a model of suppliers evaluation of Heidelberg Slovakia company. Using the model the company will obtain an image about the efficiency and reliability of its suppliers. The information can be used to decision making support in supply chain management.
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Smeja, Inken, Ulrike Tenschert und Dirk Przewosnik. „Supplier Selection : A Study of the Supplier Selection Process within the Sporting Goods Manufacturing Industry“. Thesis, Växjö University, School of Management and Economics, 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:vxu:diva-857.

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Due to the ongoing globalisation and fast changes within the business environment companies are forced to adapt more quickly to customer needs. Therefore, they depend on reliable suppliers which provide them with the necessary goods and services. As a consequence, finding suitable suppliers is of utmost importance for companies. To be able to choose those suppliers companies need to establish criteria on which basis potential suppliers can be evaluate and select afterwards.

Against this background, this master thesis researches the supplier selection process from the end manufacturer’s point of view. Hereby, the focus is laid on theoretical supplier evaluation criteria and methods. Due to the lack of investigations in this branch of industry the authors have chosen the sporting goods manufacturing industry within Sweden and Austria as their field of study. They have been supported in their research by the companies the Arctic City Counting House AB, the ATOMIC Austria GmbH, and the HEAD Sports AG which provided them with the essential empirical data.

Keeping the above mentioned fact in the back of one’s mind, the authors deduce the following research question:

On which basis and how do manufacturers of sports equipment in Sweden and Austria evaluate and select their suppliers?

Within the theoretical part the reader of this thesis first of all gets an overview of supplier-buyer relationships and afterwards is informed about the structure of the supplier selection process, starting with the preparation step, followed by prequalification and evaluation steps and resulting in the final selection and the continuous controlling of the suppliers. In addition, common criteria which are necessary to evaluate suppliers are presented. Furthermore, the reader is provided with an insight into general evaluation models whereby four common theoretical methods are explained in detail (AHP, TCO, DCA, and DEA). Out of this theoretical data a conceptual model was created.

The empirical part consists of practical information which was provided by the three researched companies mentioned above through questionnaires and interviews. The analysed data concludes that the evaluation criteria which are given in theory are also used in practice. In addition, it was discovered that a further criteria category is applied within the researched companies. The values of the evaluation criteria depend on the goals of the respective company. The theoretical evaluation models on the other hand are not used by the examined sporting goods manufacturers. All of them use their own methods which are presented in the empirical as well as in the analytical part of this thesis. Finally, this thesis ends with a conclusion and with the answer of the research question.

Based on this thesis sporting goods manufacturers get an insight in specific supplier evaluation methods and thus gain the chance to learn how other companies within this industry evaluate and select their suppliers.

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Croce, Steven A. „Risk management framework for evaluating suppliers“. Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/40544.

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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science; and, (M.B.A.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management; in conjunction with the Leaders for Manufacturing Program at MIT, 2007.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 50).
Sikorsky Aircraft Co. currently finds itself in a critical growth period, in terms of both sales contracts and supplier agreements. Popular supply chain strategies preach reduction and simplification of the supply base, but Sikorsky encounters "must-grow" situations with their supply base, due to factors like international offset provisions and capacity needs. Growth in the number of supplier relationships each year strains the supply management department and makes it difficult to complete full analyses of new suppliers. The goal of this research is to provide tools that combine the knowledge of experienced supply chain employees with statistical analysis in a package that will allow any member of the supply chain group to complete a thorough supplier risk analysis in the minimum amount of time. To address Sikorsky's supply chain risk, a concrete framework is desired that will ask the right questions about a supplier and produce an indicator of the level of risk involved in a supplier agreement. This project sets out to identify the connections between the sources of risk (risk drivers) and affected performance metrics (effects). These connections can be presented in an easy-to-use tool that enables quick yet thorough analyses. The framework links supplier analyses with the resulting performance, and uses the results to make data driven inferences about future supplier relationships. This allows quick and informed assessments by anyone in the supply chain group, regardless of their level of experience. The result of this project is a software-based risk assessment framework with scoring based on historical Sikorsky supplier performance.
(cont.) The data have revealed through statistical regression analysis strong correlations between a number of risk drivers and resulting supplier performance. These correlations can be used to score suppliers with similar attributes through the model. In addition, the model can be used as a knowledge retention mechanism of supplier performance data to facilitate future refinements of both the model and risk driver/effect correlations.
by Steven A. Croce.
M.B.A.
S.M.
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Egeröd, Jens, und Emma Nordling. „Strategic Supplier Evaluation - Considering environmental aspects“. Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Logistik, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-63197.

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This study aims at presenting a strategic supplier evaluation model that can assist Cederroth in strategic supplier selection and give indications on potential areas for strategic supplier development. The evaluation model aims at assessing supplier performance also with respect to environmental aspects. The final model has been developed through five steps, five models, with starting point in a theoretical review and basic empirical data. Following the model was developed through four iterations of workshops, interviews, weighting and case studies. The final model includes 7 criteria categories and 41 criteria whereas one category including 7 criteria assesses a supplier’s environmental performance.
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Krejčoková, Oldřiška. „Hodnocení dodavatelů vybrané firmy“. Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta podnikatelská, 2017. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-317071.

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This diploma thesis deals with the application of quality tools in the production company. The theoretical part deals with the history of quality, its current status and mainly describes some of the basic quality tools. The practical part describes the current status of quality management in the company and the system of assessment and selection of suppliers. The conclusions and results of this diploma thesis should prove that by introducing a method for selection, supplier evaluation, the company will achieve cost reduction and the establishment of a beneficial supplier-customer relationship.
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Andersson, Simon. „Could suppliers take greater transport and owner responsibility? : Evaluation of changed Incoterms at GKN Aerospace“. Thesis, Högskolan Väst, Avd för företagsekonomi, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hv:diva-5667.

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GKN Aerospace Engine Systems acts as supplier to the original equipment manufacturers of aircraft engines and is one owe the largest component manufacturer in the aerospace industry. They purchase raw material from suppliers all over the world. The components are big and heavy which means that transport cost could be saved with ship transport. But since GKN Aerospace Engine Systems use Free carrier agreement as incoterm they tie up capital during the transportation. The capital tied up could instead be used in other investments. To overcome the problem with tied up capital during transport the incoterm agreement has been evaluated. The incoterm Delivery at place means that the supplier owns the material and thereby also the capital cost during the transportation. A production stop due to lack of raw material is expensive and to minimize the risk it is important to evaluate all possible risks. The purpose with this thesis is to identify potential risks. The concept with DAP makes it possible for the suppliers to use their own freight carrier, that could lower the prices, but it also increase the inbound transport to GKN Aerospace Engine Systems. The administration cost in the goods receive tends to increase with a DAP solution. It is also necessary to change place where the delivery precision is measured. The supplier also needs some knowledge in export transportation and have competence in transports.
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Bücher zum Thema "Supplier’s evaluation"

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Organisation, India Planning Commission Programme Evaluation. Evaluation report on essential supplies programme. New Delhi: Programme Evaluation Organisation, Planning Commission, Govt. of India, 1985.

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Snodgrass, Carl M. An evaluation of future natural gas supplies. Springfield, Ill: Illinois Commerce Commission, 1988.

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Burrill, Victoria. Evaluation of package design: A focus on suppliers'/customers' perceptions. Manchester: UMIST, 1994.

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Liu, Hu-Chen, und Xiao-Yue You. Green Supplier Evaluation and Selection: Models, Methods and Applications. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-0382-2.

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Suffet, I. H. Taste and odor in drinking water supplies: Phase III. Denver, CO: AWWA Research Foundation, 1996.

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Martin, Peter T. Detector technology evaluation. [Fargo, N.D.]: Mountain-Plains Consortium, 2003.

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Drago, Joseph A. Critical assessment of radon removal systems for drinking water supplies. Denver, Co: AWWA Research Foundation and American Water Works Association, 1998.

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Glass, Jacqueline. Cryptosporidium in private water supplies: Evaluation of microbiological risk assessment method. (s.l: The Author), 2003.

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George, Harris. Managing supplier performance: Measurement, quality improvement, and certification. [New York, N.Y.?]: American Management Association, 1997.

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Swatland, H. J. On-line evaluation of meat. Lancaster, Pa: Technomic Pub. Co., 1995.

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Buchteile zum Thema "Supplier’s evaluation"

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Ma, Xinyu, und Qing Zhang. „The Study of Fresh Products Supplier’s Comprehensive Evaluation Based on Balanced Scorecard“. In Smart Service Systems, Operations Management, and Analytics, 329–40. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30967-1_30.

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Nakajima, Takafumi, Hiroshi Onoda und Katsuya Nagata. „A study on the development of the evaluation method of supplier’s contributions to the Green IT“. In Design for Innovative Value Towards a Sustainable Society, 302–7. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-3010-6_58.

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Öztayşi, Başar, und Mine Işık. „Supplier Evaluation Using Fuzzy Clustering“. In Supply Chain Management Under Fuzziness, 61–79. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-53939-8_4.

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Urbaniak, Maciej. „Sustainability as Criteria of Evaluation of Suppliers“. In Sustainable Logistics and Production in Industry 4.0, 103–19. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-33369-0_7.

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Lee, Hsuan-Shih. „A Fuzzy Method for Evaluating Suppliers“. In Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery, 1035–43. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/11881599_128.

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Amindoust, Atefeh, und Ali Saghafinia. „Supplier Evaluation Using Fuzzy Inference Systems“. In Supply Chain Management Under Fuzziness, 3–19. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-53939-8_1.

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Feyziog̃lu, Orhan, und Gülçin Büyüközkan. „Evaluation of Green Suppliers Considering Decision Criteria Dependencies“. In Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 145–54. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-04045-0_12.

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Davis, Jan, Gerry Garvey und Michael Wood. „6. Managing community water supplies; Evaluation for planning“. In Developing and Managing Community Water Supplies, 141–68. Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxfam Publishing, 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.3362/9780855986872.006.

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Hofmann, Erik, Daniel Maucher, Martin Kotula und Oliver Kreienbrink. „Supplier Evaluation and Performance Measurement on the Buyer-Supplier-Relationship Level“. In Professional Supply Management, 93–127. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-38439-4_5.

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Oged, M., D. G. Warner und E. Gurbuz. „Supplier Performance Evaluation and Rating System (Spears)“. In Supercollider 5, 291–94. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-2439-7_69.

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Konferenzberichte zum Thema "Supplier’s evaluation"

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Nawi, Mohd Nasrun Mohd, Mohd Azrulfitri Azimi, Mohd Affendi Ahmad Pozin, Wan Nadri Osman und Herman Shah Anuar. „Project Management Consultancy (PMC) procurement approach: Supplier’s evaluation and selection dilemma“. In PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON APPLIED SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 2016 (ICAST’16). Author(s), 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4960912.

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Akman, Gu¨ls¸en, F. Mine O¨tku¨r und Gu¨l E. Okudan. „A Distance-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Making Approach to Problem of Supplier Involvement in New Product Development“. In ASME 2010 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. ASMEDC, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2010-29087.

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Because of rising global competition and more rapid technological changes, the need for faster development of products with higher quality and reliability has increased, also elevating the importance of supplier involvement. Accordingly, companies give high priority to development of relationships with their suppliers, including collaborative product development. This paper focuses on evaluating current suppliers, which are to be involved in design decisions and product development processes. First, an overview of the supplier involvement in product development process is described. Then, a questionnaire form is introduced, which was administered to 40 automotive suppliers to determine the supplier selection criteria’s importance levels. Survey results were evaluated using statistical means for reliability and suitability. Finally, in order to select the best supplier, results were evaluated using a method integrating Analytical Network Process (ANP) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The evaluation criteria were weighted with ANP, and then supplier companies were ranked using TOPSIS methodology.
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Sabbagh, Ramin, und Farhad Ameri. „A Thesaurus-Guided Text Analytics Technique for Capability-Based Classification of Manufacturing Suppliers“. In ASME 2017 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2017-67652.

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Capability analysis is a necessary step in the early stages of supply chain formation. Most existing approaches to manufacturing capability evaluation and analysis use structured and formal capability models as input. However, manufacturing suppliers often publish their capability data in an unstructured format. The unstructured capability data usually portrays a more realistic view of the services a supplier can offer. If parsed and analyzed properly, unstructured capability data can be used effectively for initial screening and characterization of manufacturing suppliers specially when dealing with a large pool of prospective suppliers. This work proposes a novel framework for capability-based supplier classification that relies on the unstructured capability narratives available on the suppliers’ websites. Naïve Bayes is used as the text classification technique. One of the innovative aspects of this work is incorporating a thesaurus-guided method for feature selection and tokenization of capability data. The thesaurus contains the informal vocabulary used in the contract machining industry for advertising manufacturing capabilities. An Entity Extractor Tool (EET) is developed for the generation of the concept vector model associated with each capability narrative. The proposed supplier classification framework is validated experimentally through forming two capability classes, namely, heavy component machining and difficult and complex machining, based on real capability data.
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Letheby, Kirby. „Utility Perspectives on Opportunity Fuels“. In 2002 International Joint Power Generation Conference. ASMEDC, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ijpgc2002-26175.

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Use of opportunity fuels can provide cost-effective business deals for utilities. Successful use of these fuels is based on meeting fuel supply needs of the utility. These needs are specific to the particular power plant under consideration and can present significant challenges. Plant needs can be determined through an evaluation process based on a common set of fuel supply requirements. Results of this evaluation identify what is required for a successful fuel-supply business deal. The cost-benefits from this evaluation process are helpful in determining if the opportunity fuel will support a win-win business deal between the fuel supplier and the fuel user. This paper presents a framework for this evaluation process followed by case study reviews. This evaluation process can be helpful to fuel suppliers in understanding how to meet power plant fuel-supply needs and to power plant operators in clearly defining the needs that opportunity fuel suppliers must meet.
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Stokes, Harlan. „IGES Success on a Shoestring: A Management Case Study of CAD/CAM Data Exchange“. In ASME 1991 International Computers in Engineering Conference and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/cie1991-0043.

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Abstract In the Autumn of 1988, the Materials Operations at Control Data Corporation’s Computer Products Group began a program to electronically exchange mechanical CAD models with its suppliers. The “Supplier CAD-Link” program provided many immediate benefits and offers a unique learning experience about electronic data interchange. Existing technologies are used, so the program operates on a shoestring budget with no major dollar investments required of CDC or the suppliers. The program uses the IGES standard file format, so suppliers can apply the lessons learned to CAD/CAM data exchanges with other companies. Now, with the continuing success of the CAD-Link program. Computer Products is re-evaluating many of the old paper based methods of doing business. This paper explores some of the issues for managing a CAD/GAM data exchange program.
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zhang, Mingwei. „Green Suppliers Evaluation by Fuzzy Clustering and TOPSIS Suppliers“. In The 7th International Conference on Computer Engineering and Networks. Trieste, Italy: Sissa Medialab, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.22323/1.299.0051.

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Hashemkhani Zolfani, Sarfaraz, Prasenjit Chatterjee und Morteza Yazdani. „A structured framework for sustainable supplier selection using a combined BWM-CoCoSo model“. In Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Economics Engineering. Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/cibmee.2019.081.

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Purpose – sustainability in industrial organizations is becoming one of the predominant concepts in the context of modern industrialization due to global warming, economic significance, and social awareness. These have prompted a huge concern toward sustainable supply chain management (SSCM) to be adopted and promoted as an innovative business model. Supplier evaluation and selection play a significant role in SSCM for taking appropriate procurement decisions. Research methodology – a hybrid MADM model based on Best Worst Method (BWM) and Combined Comprise Solution (CoCoSo) method. Findings – a case study in the steel industry is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results show the potentiality of the proposed model in resolving complex sustainability issues in the SCM environment. Research limitations – other weighting techniques like the analytic network process (ANP) and decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) approaches can also be combined and performances can be compared. Practical implications – the proposed model can be used by the organizations to select the most appropriate suppliers who contribute to the movement of the SC towards sustainability. Originality/Value – a multi-criteria evaluation model has been proposed for solving a sustainable supplier selection problem while considering economic, environmental and social criteria simultaneously by integrating BWM-COCOSO methods
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Jones, Kerry. „Improved Quality Truck Castings“. In ASME 2013 Rail Transportation Division Fall Technical Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/rtdf2013-4722.

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Component failure in bolsters and side frames remains a problem for both railroads and suppliers, causing expensive repairs and even derailments. To understand and combat this problem, an evaluation of the steel was required. Bolsters were obtained from several suppliers to evaluate the current state of Association of American Railroads (AAR) M-201 standard for Grade B+ cast steel. Charpy impact and tensile test samples were machined from critical areas of these castings and tested at an independent laboratory. Distinct differences were found in processes and in mechanical properties between some suppliers. Supplier names are not identified in this paper. Based on the chemical and mechanical testing results and data analysis, changes to AAR M-201 Grade B+ requirements have been proposed. Additional bolsters have been obtained for further testing. These bolsters will incorporate the proposed changes to the standard and the same mechanical testing will be performed on them to determine the effectiveness of the proposed changes. Full scale static or fatigue testing will be conducted on additional bolsters. A survey of scrapped bolsters and side frames from several railcar producers and reclaim operations was conducted to determine the leading causes of failures of components removed from service. These results form the basis for a database that can be used to identify failure trends.
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André, Samuel, Roland Stolt und Fredrik Elgh. „A Platform Model for Suppliers of Customized Systems: Creating an Ability to Master Fluctuating Requirements“. In ASME 2016 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2016-59481.

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Companies developing highly customized products within the supplier industry are continuously faced with fluctuating requirements during both the quotation process and continued development. This research proposes a platform approach to aid suppliers when modularity or platform scalability do not suffice. The platform approach, Design Platform, focuses on descriptions that not only contain information about tangible components and systems but also information, knowledge and methods supporting the actual design of the product. A support system called Design Platform Manager has been developed to aid in using the platform approach and is introduced at a supplier active in the automotive industry. The system enables creation of generic product items that can be structured and instantiated to become product variants as well as Design Elements that are blocks of knowledge that describe a design or supports the activity of designing. A first evaluation is made that overall shows good result according to the company representatives.
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Velencei, Jolan. „The Evaluation of Transport Vehicle Suppliers“. In 1st International Conference on Emerging Trends and Challenges in the Management Theory and Practice (ETCMTP 2019). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.200201.013.

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Berichte der Organisationen zum Thema "Supplier’s evaluation"

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Grieco, S. E. Evaluation of Mil-F-28861 filters and suppliers. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), September 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/10187576.

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Barbour, Rick. Software Capability Evaluation, Version 3.0. Implementation Guide for Supplier Selection. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, April 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada315789.

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Carney, David, Harvey Greenawalt, George Grigonis und Patricia Oberndorf. Case Study: Computer Supplier Evaluation Practices of the Parenteral Drug Association (PDA). Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, Mai 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada416880.

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Knipper, Michael E. Determining the Value of Automation in Commercial and USAF Supplier Evaluation Systems. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, März 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada415062.

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Greenwell, E. N., E. D. McClanahan und R. W. Moss. Evaluation of target power supplies for krypton storage in sputter-deposited metals. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), April 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/5620957.

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Vargas-Herrera, Hernando, Juan Jose Ospina-Tejeiro, Carlos Alfonso Huertas-Campos, Adolfo León Cobo-Serna, Edgar Caicedo-García, Juan Pablo Cote-Barón, Nicolás Martínez-Cortés et al. Monetary Policy Report - April de 2021. Banco de la República de Colombia, Juli 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr2-2021.

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1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
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7

Evaluation of pumpage data furnished by selected public water suppliers in Arkansas, May 1990 through March 1991. US Geological Survey, 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/wri934104.

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8

Emergency and backup power supplies at Department of Energy facilities: Augmented Evaluation Team -- Final report. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), November 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/10127777.

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9

Evaluation of the drought susceptibility of water supplies used in the Kentucky River Basin in 1988. US Geological Survey, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/wri914105.

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