Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Significant economic presence“

Introduction. Reproductive health of women is determined by females? demographic and socio-economic characteristics, their behavior, and the complex of environmental factors. Objective. The paper examines the predictive impact of personal and environmental characteristics, health and healthcare characteristics regarding the most important aspects of reproductive health. Methods From a sample of 2,718 women, aged 20-49 years, we collected information on various characteristics using a structured questionnaire. Based on factorial analysis (principal components method, Kaisser Varimax criterion) we selected representative variables (factors), describing personal (demographic and socio-economic) characteristics of women, their environment (family, household, community), health (attitudes towards health, life-style, health status), healthcare (independent) and the characteristics of reproductive health (dependent variables). The predictors were analyzed by multiple regression and correlation. Results. Sexual behavior was determined by socio-economic status, personal tidiness, rest, presence of risk factor(s), health evaluation and attitude toward personal responsibility, trust in physicians etc. The predictors of contraception involved satisfaction with one?s own health, serious health problems, health evaluation. The presence and number of abortions were determined by personal psychological maturity, rest, risk factors, life-style, health evaluation and its manifestations, and the continuity and timely healthcare. The predictors of adequate protection of reproductive health involved the cultural level of the community, financial standing of the household, satisfaction with one?s own life, tidiness and rest, presence of risk factors, health evaluation, attitude towards personal responsibility, and trust in physicians. HIV control was determined by satisfaction with one?s own life, physical activity of women, presence of serious health problems, and the content of primary healthcare. Postpartal protection was determined by the cultural level of the community, reasons for dissatisfaction with one?s own life, presence of risk factors and deficiencies, and timely contraception. The predictors of reproductive period duration are availability of health care in a community and personal tidiness of women. Conclusion. The study confirmed predictive impact of most of the studied characteristics.

Purpose The purpose of this study is to empirically assess the relationship between Islamic banking presence in Southeast Asian countries and the economic growth. Design/methodology/approach The presence of Islamic banks is measured by the ratio of Islamic to conventional banking assets as well as the ratio of deposits of Islamic to conventional banking. This study starts by checking the presence of cointegration using Pedroni’s and Westerlund’s specifications; short- and long-run dynamics are further analyzed with the panel autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL)-based estimators: pooled mean group (PMG), mean group (MG) and dynamic fixed effect (DFE). Furthermore, a two-stage regression [two-stage least squares (2SLS)] was constructed to measure the sensitivity of economic growth to the Islamic banking presence. Quarterly data from Southeast Asian countries cover the period between 2000Q1 and 2012Q4. Findings A long-run relationship is evident between economic growth and the Islamic banking presence in the selected region, but not in the short run. Furthermore, the Muslim population share in a given country plays a positive and statistically significant role in fueling the contribution of Islamic banking share in the financial sector on the economic growth. Social implications The results of this study show that Sharia-compliant banks succeeded in mobilizing additional resources for the financial sector, which may increase the stability of the banking system and the efficiency of the whole banking sector. The authors believe that the inclusion of Islamic banking products in the financial systems will, along with the diversification effect, stimulate financial deepening and, therefore, improve the financial stability in the countries under investigation in particular, and all countries with significant Muslim population in general. Originality/value This study empirically assesses the contribution of Islamic banking presence on the economic growth with a focus on Southeast Asia, as this region encompasses the most developed and experienced institutions in the field of Islamic finance. Error correction-based models such as PMG, MG and DFE lend itself to the analysis of the panel data. This study also uses the instrument-based 2SLS to cope with the endogeneity problem between the real and financial sectors.

Abstract Contrary to widespread belief, significant numbers of people have lived long lives throughout recorded history. On average, women have lived longer than men. Definitions of old age as beginning between the ages of sixty and seventy have been remarkably consistent through time, despite major social and economic changes, as has government enforcement of age-related regulations, increasingly as government bureaucracy grew from the eighteenth to the twentieth centuries. Despite long-prevailing simplified stereotypes, the reality of old age has always been highly diverse. Nowhere have people been respected or cared for simply because of their age; nor have all been frail dependents. Some have always been active to late ages, making positive, independent contributions to their families and communities, a fact that is too often overlooked by historians. Older people have mattered in all cultures and should not be overlooked.

Rapid economic reforms and proper GDP growth in China has affected the regional development of Chinese provinces. This study aims to estimate the degree of economic and environmental disparities within Chinese provinces for developing policy recommendations of regional transformation. The reduced log-linear specification of endogenous growth model is used for the estimation of convergence rates within Chinese provinces. The empirical results prove that an increase of 1% in GDP per capita basic year reduces the economic growth rate by 0.1% in the reference year. Thus, the ratio of the average per capita income in the wealthiest group to poorest provinces accounted for the factor 9.6 in 1995 and factor 4.1 in the year 2015, which means a reduction of disproportionate development. Environmental convergence trends were also found and less polluted provinces eventually increase emissions at higher rates than the initially polluted ones. With the pass of time, all provinces do move to the same steady state in environmental parameters. The speed of the economic and environmental convergence in China provinces is rather slow, and the economic growth was achieved by great sacrifices of an environment, since all provinces are striving to the same steady state in terms of pollution increase. The industrialized regions due to the presence of significant financial resources should pay more attention to the protection of the environment using all the available economic potential. At the same time, both initially poor provinces and rich have to develop more profoundly agriculture, tourism, recreation, and other environmentally friendly industries to improve economic performance.

ABSTRACTBackground:Centenarians’ psychological well-being is presently of great interest in psychogeriatric research but little is known about factors that specifically account for the presence of clinically relevant anxiety symptoms in this age group. This study examined the presence of anxiety and its predictors in a sample of centenarians and aims to contribute to a better understanding of anxiety determinants in extreme old age.Methods:We examined how socio-demographic, health, functional, and social factors contribute to the presence of clinically significant anxiety symptoms in centenarians recruited from two Portuguese centenarian studies. The Geriatric Anxiety Inventory – Short Form (GAI-SF) was used to assess anxiety symptoms.Results:A total of 97 centenarians (mean age 101.1 years; SD = 1.5 years; range = 100–108) with no/minor cognitive impairment were included. Clinically significant anxiety symptoms (GAI-SF ≥3) were present in 45.4% (n = 44) of the sample. Main predictive factors included worse health perception, higher number of medical conditions, financial concerns related to medical expenses (income inadequacy) and loneliness.Conclusions:Results suggest that along with health status (subjective and objective), income inadequacy related to medical expenses and feeling lonely may predispose centenarians to clinically significant anxiety and be important to their overall well-being. Further research is needed on the repercussions of clinical anxiety in centenarians’ quality of life and on co-morbid conditions (e.g. depression) at such advanced ages.

The present paper analyses the impact of Sukuk issuances on the economic growth of Malaysia over a period of 10 years from 2008 to 2017 on a yearly basis. There are six different types of Sukuk issuances which includes the long-term government/treasury/central bank (LGTC), long-term corporate (LCTE), long-term agency (LAGY), short-term government/treasury/central bank (SGTC), short-term corporate (SCTE) and short-term agency (SAGY) with the presences of the moderating variable which is the exchange rate (ER). The 10 years’ time-series data were analyzed by using the diagnostic test, unit root test and multiple regression analysis. The outcome of the study indicates that the presence of the ER, LCTE, SGTC, SCTE, and SAGY found to have a significant and positive relationship with the economic growth (GDP) of Malaysia. However, LGTC found not to be significant but shows a positive relationship with the GDP in Malaysia, whilst LAGY is found to be significant but shows a negative relationship with the GDP in Malaysia. Therefore, the Sukuk issuances give an impact on the economic growth of Malaysia, whereby with the presences of the moderating variable, the long-term and short-term Sukuk issuances can spur the economic growth of Malaysia.

A major theme of economic theory is that optimality, at the level of the firm or the economy as a whole, can be reached by profit maximization using competitive prices. The conclusion requires the assumption that the production possibility set be convex and is not valid if production displays economies of scale based on significant indivisibilities. The paper provides a specific quantity test for detecting optimality in the presence of indivisibilities and suggests that it may be useful to view the large firm as an algorithm for solving programming problems in which some of the variables assume integral values.

The political-economic cycle can be caused as the consequence of the wrong political decisions, made with the aim of re-election and maintaining the political power. These decisions influence the macroeconomic indicators of the country and their presence is problematic in the advanced economies. The main objective of this study is to verify the existence of the political-economic cycle model in the case of Greece and to identify the type of this cycle. The basement is given by the approach of Alesina and Roubini (1992), which observes the relationship between the political dummy variables and the selected macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product, unemployment rate and inflation rate. The eight linear regression models are developed in the R software environment, while the three of them are opportunistic and the five are ideological. These models are identified as statistically significant and according to the methodology, tested for the presence of serial correlation, heteroscedasticity and residual normality. As the models do not confirm the presence of an opportunistic or ideological political-economic cycle, according to the data, the influence of the political parties on changes in the macroeconomic variables before the election is not proved for the case of Greece.

The present paper aims to investigate the impact of coffee exports on long-term economic growth in an open economy for 32 countries exporting coffee over the period of 1994–2013. The study applied a dynamic panel Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) modelling approach with estimators. All variables involved in the specified model were found to be stationary of order I (1) at a first difference. The Pooled Mean-Group (PMG) long-run results suggest the presence of a significant positive effect of coffee exports on economic growth. The empirical findings of the study suggest policy implications, promoting the coffee sector to boost the countries’ economy.

The central aim of this paper is to empirically assess the effects of financial liberalization on economic growth in the presence of banking crises. Our empirical investigation is based on a dynamic panel model for a sample of 10 South Mediterranean countries during the period 1980-2005. Results suggest that equity market liberalization positively affects economic growth in these countries, especially in the period of fragility and banking crises. Capital account liberalization, however, has no significant effects. As expected, banking crises exert negative effects on economic growth. When we control for the presence of macroeconomic stability and appropriate openness sequencing, the anticipated effects of capital account liberalization become significant. We conclude that macroeconomic reforms and trade opening are both crucial prerequisites for the success of the capital account liberalization process.

The emergence and progression of the digital economy has distorted the core principles of international taxation. Foreign multinational companies now have the ability to fundamentally operate in market jurisdictions without having a ―physical presence‖. This poses a various challenges to the current international tax regimes because it enables businesses to have a ―significant economic presence‖ without a taxable nexus. Therefore, it becomes extremely difficult to ―ring-fence‖ the digital economy. The Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has attempted to address these challenges in Action 1 of its Base Erosion Profit Shifting (BEPS) Plan report entitled ―Addressing the Tax Challenges of the Digital Economy - Action 1: 2015 Report‖. Action 1 recommended a few proposals to address the challenges presented in taxing the digital economy, but they were not agreed upon. In the absence of a consensus on the proposals in Action 1, especially from a direct tax perspective, a number of countries began to explore unilateral measures in order to protect their tax base. South Africa is referred to as the ―getaway to Africa‖ and considering South Africa‘s importance in the global economy, it is imperative to ascertain South Africa‘s approach to taxing the digital economy. This study will assess South Africa‘s approach to taxing the digital economy within the international tax spectrum. This assessment will be based on a review of the unilateral approaches taken by other jurisdictions, to determine whether South Africa has taken the correct stance in not taking direct tax measures so far, as well as to assess whether there is anything else South Africa can do to protect its tax base as it awaits global consensus on the taxation of the digital economy. The observations of this study discovered that the unilateral measures taken by the various countries have caused retaliations by trade partners, impractical implementation issues and has created greater uncertainty. This study affirms that South Africa‘s subtle approach to taxing the digital economy was correct and that the expansion of its current source taxation rules should be considered in order to protect the South African tax base whilst a ―global consensus‖ on taxing the digital economy is still to be reached.
Mini Dissertation (MPhil (International Taxation))--University of Pretoria, 2020.
pt2021
Taxation
MPhil (International Taxation)
Unrestricted

Submitted by Noeme Timbo (noeme.timbo@metodista.br) on 2016-09-14T18:52:33Z No. of bitstreams: 1 IGORMARQUES.pdf: 1484987 bytes, checksum: 222e9ad06f9f0aead873e9543fe463b9 (MD5)
Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-14T18:52:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 IGORMARQUES.pdf: 1484987 bytes, checksum: 222e9ad06f9f0aead873e9543fe463b9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-27
Against the backdrop of the denominational status of network Adventist education present in a remarkable way in the school space and the intense religious diversity students, this research analyzes the relationship of possible tensions between the denominational school status and religious diversity present. It takes into account the process of modernity causing significant change in education, in religion and in the form of the two institutes relate to each other. It took into account the socio-economic and religious profile of the students and how is the reception of religious education in Adventist school space, including students who declare themselves Adventists. The area chosen for this research was the Adventist schools located in the ABCD Paulista context, which offer high school. These school units are located in the cities of Diadema, Santo Andre and Sao Caetano do Sul, cities located in the same micro region, but with different socioeconomic realities.
Tendo como pano de fundo a confessionalidade da rede adventista de educação presente de maneira marcante no espaço escolar e a intensa diversidade religiosa discente, esta pesquisa analisa a relação de possíveis tensões entre a confessionalidade escolar e a diversidade religiosa presente neste espaço. Leva em consideração o processo de modernidade causadora de importantes transformações na educação, na religião e na forma dos dois institutos se relacionarem. Levou-se em consideração o perfil socioeconômico e religioso dos alunos e possíveis tensões na recepção do religioso no espaço escolar adventista por parte dos discentes, inclusive por aqueles que se declaram adventistas. O espaço escolhido para esta pesquisa foi o de colégios adventistas localizadas no contexto do ABCD Paulista, que ofertam o Ensino Médio. Estas unidades escolares estão situadas nas cidades de Diadema, Santo André e São Caetano do Sul, cidades localizadas na mesma microrregião, mas com distintas realidades socioeconômicas.

Nesta dissertação, explicaremos em que medida o Estabelecimento Estável, como critério-chave de aferição da presença de uma sociedade ou de um grupo de sociedades no território de outro Estado, se tornou inadequado no contexto da Economia Digital, assim como as consequências que daí resultam para os Estados. Perante este problema, e o consequente surto de medidas unilaterais adotadas por muito Estados, a OCDE - no âmbito do Plano BEPS -, e a Comissão Europeia, têm vindo a apresentar soluções harmonizadoras com vista à reconfiguração do instituto do EE e a tributação justa dos modelos de negócio digitais. Recorrendo à doutrina especializada, o nosso trabalho passará por analisar estas propostas do ponto de vista da sua viabilidade, das suas vantagens e desvantagens, tendo em conta as características específicas destes modelos de negócio.
In this dissertation, we will explain to what extent the Permanent Establishment, as a key criterion for assessing the presence of an enterprise or a group of enterprises in the territory of another State, has become inadequate within the context of the Digital Economy, as well as the consequences that result for those States. Faced with this problem, as well as the consequent outbreak of unilateral measures adopted by several States, the OECD - within the scope of the BEPS Action Plan -, and the European Commission have been presenting solutions towards the reconfiguration of the PE institute and the fair taxation of digital business models. Resorting to the specialized doctrine, our work will involve the analysis of these proposals from the point of view of their viability, their advantages and disadvantages, taking into account the specific characteristics of these business models.

Esta dissertação explorará o conceito de Estabelecimento Estável nos termos do artigo 5.º da Convenção Modelo da OCDE e a sua inaptidão para fazer frente aos desafios colocados pela digitalização dos negócios. Neste sentido, analisaremos o caminho até agora percorrido, salientando os frutos do Projeto BEPS, levado a cabo pela OCDE, bem como as Diretivas propostas pela Comissão Europeia. Destacamos a introdução do teste da presença digital significativa, que vem alterar o atual conceito de Estabelecimento Estável. Não obstante, são necessárias algumas correções que levem ao alcance de acordo entre os Estados-Membros na sua implementação, colocando um travão à emergência de medidas unilaterais tomadas, prejudiciais para o bom funcionamento do Mercado Único Digital.
This dissertation will address the concept of Permanent Establishment, as foreseen in article 5 of the OECD Model Convention, and its inability to face the challenges posed by the digitalization of the businesses. In this sense, we will analyse the progress made until now, in special the results from the BEPS Project, carried out by the OECD, as well as the Directives proposed by the European Commission. We highlight the importance of the introduction of the significant digital presence test, which complements the current Permanent Establishment definition. However, there are still some corrections to be made in order to achieve the agreement of all the Member States in its implementation, putting an end to the emergence of unilateral measures, highly harmful to the well-functioning of the Digital Single Market.

A Digitalização da Economia representa um desafio acrescido para a soberania dos Estados devido à crescente perda de receita fiscal associada a uma obsolescência de determinados conceitos fiscais concebidos para um modelo de empresa tradicional que pressupõe a existência de um estabelecimento estável mediante o qual realizam as suas operações. A nossa dissertação foca-se nos serviços de investimento prestados remotamente pelas corretoras online independentes fazendo alusão à controvérsia instalada pelas dificuldades de tributação com o advento do comércio eletrónico, sem descurar a apreciação das soluções propostas pela OCDE e UE para a Economia Digital. Contudo, as soluções, além de complexas, são meras recomendações que não conseguem gerar o consenso no seio da comunidade internacional. Assumimos, por isso, o carácter urgente da adaptação do conceito estabelecimento estável à presença digital significativa proposta pelo BEPS para efeitos de imputação dos lucros gerados à jurisdição onde efetivamente é criado valor.
The digitalization of the economy represents an added challenge for the sovereignty of States due to the growing loss of tax revenue associated with the obsolescence of certain tax concepts designed for a traditional business model that presupposes the existence of a stable establishment through which they carry out their operations. Our dissertation focuses on the investment services provided remotely by independent online brokers alluding to the controversy installed by the difficulties of taxation with the advent of e-commerce, without neglecting the appreciation of the solutions proposed by the OECD and EU for the Digital Economy. However, the solutions, besides being complex, are mere recommendations that fail to generate consensus within the international community. We therefore assume the urgent nature of adapting the concept of stable establishment to the significant digital presence proposed by BEPS for the purpose of allocating the profits generated to the jurisdiction where value is effectively created.

The modern economy is characterized by a high level of dynamism of the factors of the external and internal environment of enterprises, influencing the possibility of their stable development. With the transition of the Russian economy to market methods of doing business, in which enterprise management must take into account various scenarios, risk becomes an integral element of socio-economic relations. Risk is present in all spheres of life, regardless of whether its presence is taken into account in the situation of choosing an alternative method of managing a business entity or not. The presence of risk is a significant factor in the development of business and the economy as a whole. To minimize and neutralize risks, the enterprise must constantly ensure its safety. In modern conditions, due to the pandemic and economic downturn, enterprises are forced to revise their methods of safety management and risk neutralization. This monograph, dedicated to modern problems of business security management, is the result of the joint work of teachers and students of the Department of Economic Security, Accounting and Law of the Don State Technical University.

The textbook covers the main topics related to the national economic significance, origin, distribution of potatoes; morphological and anatomical structure of potato plants. Features of potato biology by periods of growth and development, as well as its requirements for growing conditions are given. Technological methods of cultivation, the system of fertilization and protection from pests, diseases and weeds, seed production and varietal studies, the economy of potato production are presented. Meets the requirements of the Federal state educational standards of higher education of the latest generation for the preparation of bachelors. For undergraduate students studying in the field of "agronomy", as well as specialists in agricultural production.

In the sphere of the vast panorama of international studies on the family in the pre-industrial age, the 11th Study Week promoted by the Fondazione Datini explored the economic role played by the members of this fundamental group in the survival and evolution of society. Developing over the course of five centuries, and examining the peculiarities proper to the different geographical areas of Europe, the studies collected in this book analyse economic strategies aimed at generating and perpetuating financial and property fortunes, or even simply at protecting and preserving the family group. They also address the articulated economic functions which the various components performed within the family, and the manner in which such strategies integrated and interacted in a complex context of different entities and social brackets. Within this framework, the book presents not just a series of new studies on the individual family groups, but above all is intended to underscore the important collective function of the family, which played a significant role in the growth, stasis or decline of the societies of pre-industrial Europe.

The book outlines a brief history of the development of Microbiology, General properties of microorganisms, their position in nature, modern conceptions of the morphology of prokaryotic and eukaryotic microorganisms. Presents the basic principles of classification of microorganisms, basic physiology and genetics. Describes the methods and conditions of cultivation of microorganisms. Considered the most important biochemical processes caused chemoheterotrophic microorganisms and their practical significance in food production in the national economy. The considered methods of immobilization of cells of microorganisms and their practical significance. The role of microorganisms in food production from vegetable raw materials and to obtain practically important for the national economy of organic acids. The textbook is accompanied by illustrations. At the end of each Chapter test questions for self-examination. Meets the requirements of Federal state educational standards of higher education of the last generation. Designed for students majoring in "food from vegetable raw materials, production Technology and organization of public catering".

The textbook covers a wide range of issues related to econometric modeling. Regression models are the core of econometric modeling, so the issues of their evaluation, testing of assumptions, adjustment and verification are given a significant place. Various aspects of multiple regression models are included: multicollinearity, dummy variables, and lag structure of variables. Methods of linearization and estimation of nonlinear models are considered. An apparatus for evaluating systems of simultaneous and apparently unrelated equations is presented. Attention is paid to time series models. Detailed solutions of the examples in Excel and the R software environment are included. Meets the requirements of the federal state educational standards of higher education of the latest generation. For undergraduate and graduate students studying in the field of "Economics", the curriculum of which includes the disciplines "Econometrics"," Econometric Modeling","Econometric research".

The lagging behind of the Italian economy in the sphere of technologically advanced manufacture represents a significant factor in the debate on the risks of the country's decline. Nevertheless we know relatively little about the diffusion in Italy of companies specialising in information technology. The research presented in this book – the outcome of a national project – reveals how this sector is dominated by small businesses, concentrated in a number of urban areas (the cases studied are Pisa, Florence, Turin, Osimo and Castelfidardo). It emerges that the social networks linking the businessmen with University researchers are crucial to an understanding of the processes of innovation. But what is equally important is the capacity of the collective entities, both public and private, to provide the entire country with the services that are indispensable for the development of enterprise.

The textbook systematizes basic knowledge in the field of finance, financial analysis and financial management, presented in their direct relationship and significance from the point of view of evaluation, diagnosis, forecasting and monitoring of the continuity of the organization's activities. It includes seven chapters grouped into three sections. The first section is devoted to the theoretical foundations of the organization's financial management, stakeholders and sources of the organization's activities. The second section discusses the basics of financial analysis, providing knowledge of the main directions, information base and methods of financial analysis, as well as allowing them to be applied reasonably, calculate and evaluate analytical indicators, determine the impact of globalization processes, various macro-and microfactors on the financial condition of the organization. The third section contains the basics of financial management, providing an understanding of the essence of the financial mechanism of the organization and algorithms for justifying decisions in the field of financial management. It complies with the federal state educational standards of higher education of the latest generation and provides the formation of basic competencies in the field of finance, financial management and financial analysis. For bachelor's, specialist's and master's students studying in the field of Economics, the system of additional professional education, training centers for advanced training of auditors and other financial market specialists, as well as for individual preparation of applicants for qualification certification and passing qualification exams.

The role of emerging markets is changing in the twenty-first century, from the traditional provider of low-cost, labor-intensive goods to a global growth engine. These emerging economies are growing at double the rate of advanced economies because of technology and global connectivity. Traditionally they have been big exporters of commodities and raw materials to the rest of the world. The export of commodities has contributed significantly to the development of industrial and physical infrastructure in many countries around the world. However, emerging markets are also lucrative markets and an important source of growth for many international companies as they export their products or increase their presence in these markets by opening subsidiaries or through joint venture mechanisms. Today these markets are coming into their own, moving from sole source exporters feeding the world’s growth to becoming increasingly significant normative economic members of the global family.

This chapter examines black business activities in Chicago in the 1920s. Robert S. Abbott, Jesse Binga, and Anthony Overton dominated the business activities of the Black Metropolis with their control over finance and information like no others in their community and very much like the business titans found throughout other major Chicago economic enclaves. Business was national king at this time and their collective presence provided a significant part of the foundation of making the Black Metropolis a reality. The economic influence of the 1920s built to such a crescendo that other interests and activities were virtually submerged to it as an epicenter. In fact, one internal memorandum of the NAACP concluded the following: “There are so many diversified interests in Chicago that the N.A.A.C.P. really suffers greatly from indifference on the part of the people.” These diversified interests were related to economics and the emergence of a consumers'society—working for extra money from which to increase spending and buying; spending for recreation and leisure rather than just for necessity; buying property, automobiles, and the new technological devices such as the refrigerator and record player; and investing in oil exploration, stocks, bonds, and real estate.

This book maintains that container shipping is vital to the actualisation of globalisation, and that without it, globalisation would remain a concept rather than reality. It argues that container shipping has been academically overlooked as a global business sector in favour of more prominent sectors such as oil or arms trade, and aims to provide a complete history of containerisation from the 1950s to the turn of the millennium. This history explores the growth of the container industry due to prominent innovation in vessel design, early adoption of the internet, large international mergers, and significant physical alterations to the global port system. With particular emphasis on the east-west trade, the chapters cover the growth and development of the container industry, to the social changes experienced by seafaring labour forces, the cultural impact of the container - bringing a domineering land-presence to maritime activity, through to the environmental concerns surrounding the industry. The study is not a quantitative economic analysis of the industry, rather, an updated history that strives to demonstrate the importance of transport infrastructures to any consideration of global business sectors, by providing evidence of the container industry’s stimulation of the global economy.

The article presents the author's view on economic fraud, considers the main causes of their occurrence, and studies their types. Economic fraud is considered as a significant threat to the economic security of economic entities.

Abstract R&D investments have the potential to boost innovation at the local level. However, this only happens where appropriate complementary skills and conditions are available locally to support knowledge generation and absorption. Where major R&D facilities are located in regions that lack the appropriate receptive environment the local mismatch between R&D and skilled labor can persistently hinder innovation and local spillovers. How can this be avoided? Public policies have an important role to play. They should facilitate the development of connections between local teams and those active in the research facility. The presence of star researchers in large research facilities might—for example—be a key factor to facilitate collaboration with local industrial partners offering significant opportunities for technological upgrading.

The traditional concept of EP status is obsolete and enables digital companies to enter a foreign market jurisdiction without having a minimal physical presence. These companies usually do not reach the threshold required to establish the necessary taxable nexus to attribute the profits to that jurisdiction. For the purpose of realigning corporate taxation with the location of actual business activities, Action 1 Final Report relaunches the debate of a new nexus based on the concept of significant economic presence.

This chapter highlights the economic characteristics of developing countries. The economy of a developing country may possess characteristics that distinguish it from an industrialized economy, and markets often function differently in developing countries. These characteristics include small, fragmented, and less competitive domestic markets; widespread poverty, which further exacerbates the small size of the domestic market; significant variations in firm productivity; barriers to entrepreneurship; missing institutions and prevalence of market failure; poorly developed financial markets; heavy state presence; prevalence of the informal sector; domination of large business groups; and widespread corruption and state capture. Approaches to competition law enforcement formulated in industrialized economies are based on the economic environment of these countries and do not reflect the circumstances of a developing country economy. The chapter then discusses each economic characteristic one by one, proposing necessary adjustments to competition law doctrines and enforcement approaches.

This chapter examines the existing pattern in the area of trade and economic integration among the BRICS countries which was tended to be neglected and to which there have been few original or significant contributions until now. The research results indicate the presence of the long-run sustainable equilibrium relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), trade and economic growth. It is thus important that policymakers have to remove obstacles to FDI inflows and improve the respective absorptive capacity of national economies in order to maximize positive growth effects. This study also discusses how China performed well through attracting FDI inflows and maintained trade balance.

This chapter examines the existing pattern in the area of trade and economic integration among the BRICS countries which was tended to be neglected and to which there have been few original or significant contributions until now. The research results indicate the presence of the long-run sustainable equilibrium relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), trade and economic growth. It is thus important that policymakers have to remove obstacles to FDI inflows and improve the respective absorptive capacity of national economies in order to maximize positive growth effects. This study also discusses how China performed well through attracting FDI inflows and maintained trade balance.

Some countries spend a relatively large percentage of GDP on their militaries in order to preserve or secure their status as global powers. Others do so because they are ruled by military governments or aggressive regimes that pose a military threat to their neighbors or their own populations. It is debatable whether there is a causal relationship between military spending and economic growth in the economy. It is again a policy debate how much to allocate funds for civilian and how much for military expenditure. Under these puzzling results of the impact of military expenditure on economic growth which is frequently found to be non-significant or negative, yet most countries spend a large fraction of their GDP on defense and the military. The chapter tries to investigate the relationship between military spending and economic growth in India. It also sees whether external threats, corruption, and other relevant controls have any causal effect. This chapter obtains that additional expenditure on Indian military in the presence of additional threat is significantly detrimental to growth implying that India cannot afford to fight or demonstrate power at the cost of its development.

China views the decline of the United States and the West as signal to advance its interests, norms, and values on the world stage. But sentiments that one superpower will replace another miss the bigger picture. China’s rise to the commanding heights of the global economy and world affairs is not preordained. Its potential evolution into a global superpower, with a deep presence and strong influence over economic, political, military, and culture abroad, will rather be conditioned by how China behaves toward the rest of the world, and how the world responds. The world’s other large economies, major militaries, technology leaders, and cultural hubs will be significant in shaping the future world. For developed and developing countries alike, there is recognition that economic engagement with China produces strategic vulnerabilities to their own competitiveness and foreign policy and defense autonomy. China will struggle to realize its political, economic, and military global ambitions.

The chapter presents a study made in order to find out how the e-learning experience enhances the social presence in the community of practice. The study was carried out for the online master degree programme in project management, delivered by the Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest. The main research method was a survey and the research instrument was a questionnaire. Statistics and data mining were applied. Statistics was applied to check hypothesis and quantify the correlation significance. Due to the large number of the variables and the indirect relationships, the analysis paths become very complex and it would be extremely difficult to manage the analysis workflow. So, the data mining approach was chosen. As a theoretical framework and analytical perspective for this research, Wenger’s theories of learning in Community of practice (CoP), and the social presence model of Garisson et al., are applied. The study revealed that the characteristics of the online social presence in learning environments enhanced the students’ interest for CoPs. Another finding of this study is that for project management area there is not a significant correlation between the learning domain and that of the CoPs chosen to get involved. The reason is that most of the project personnel hold a first degree in an area other than project management.

This chapter addresses the important relationships that are currently evolving between Russia, China, and the Middle East. Russia and China have emerged as increasingly powerful actors in the Middle East and their presence and influence in the region has grown significantly. While both states have had longstanding historical links with the region, the twenty-first-century panorama is a quite distinctive one, with new economic and geopolitical factors driving a return to Middle East and North Africa (MENA). In addition, significant Muslim populations in both countries add another dynamic to contemporary Russian and Chinese relations with MENA. The chapter then identifies the challenges this presents for the United States and the West, and how the states and peoples of the Middle East are responding to the resurgence of Russian and Chinese power in the region.

With growing attention to environmental problems in Russia and the world, the problem of effectively extinguishing forest fires is becoming one of the most urgent, solved by state and regional authorities in Russia. This is due to the presence of significant economic and environmental damage from such fires, which in practice are difficult to assess. The article considers the issues of assessing the economic feasibility of extinguishing fires in Russia. A number of environmental indicators that are not taken into account when assessing damage from fires are also highlighted.

Economic theory predicts that the development of the financial sector should have a positive impact on the overall economic development. Research has predominantly confirmed this expectation, with the remark that at earlier stages of economic development this impact should be higher, while a disproportionate banking sector has detrimental effect on growth through its impact on attracting highly skilled workforce, increased presence of moral hazard and the associated banking crises. This issue has been studied only occasionally in the case of the former socialist economies of Central and Eastern Europe and the former USSR. This paper represents an attempt to analyze the impact of the banking sector and securities markets development on the economic growth of these countries. A sample of 22 countries is assembled, using data from 1995 to 2018 and a panel regression and a GMM technique are used to derive conclusions on the researched topic. The analysis has shown that the banking sector has played a positive role in the economic growth throughout the analyzed period, while the role of the stock market is not significant. This is in line with the previous studies which have confirmed that the positive role of the securities markets should be expected only at higher levels of economic development. Also, the impact of the overall financial sector is deemed to be positive.

Western Balkans have several definitions depending on the lens through which this concept is observed. The definitions can be economic, political or economic. The analysis is further complicated by the partial presence of the European Union, various economic treaties and unresolved conflicts as well as the fact that the largest urban populations are scattered without definitive trends. Cities continue to attract new arrivals as a result of the direct centralization tendencies throughout the region and result in an unsustainable growth of cities that in turn result in economic and social complications. This article uses a matrix classification model to classify the existing literature on cities in Western Balkans, identify specific conditions for particular groups and proposes different approaches for groups of cities in order to maximise the effects of smart cities projects so that doubling and significant overlapping in financing are avoided.

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) encompassing computer and network hardware and software, and so on, as well as various services and applications associated with them, are assuming a growing presence within the modern homestead and have an indelible impact on the professional and everyday life of people. This research aims to explore factors influencing the successful adoption and usage of ICTs within Polish households. Based on prior literature and practical experiences, a framework of success factors is provided. The required data was collected from a survey questionnaire administered to a sample of Polish households to examine this framework and identifies which factors are of greatest importance for the adoption and usage of ICTs within households in Poland. Based on 751 questionnaires the paper indicates that the adoption of ICTs within households is mainly influenced by the economic status of households and cost of ICTs, perceived economic benefits from the usage of ICTs, technological availability and security of ICTs, ICT competences and awareness, as well as satisfaction with the adoption of ICTs. Furthermore, gender, education, and place of residence do not reflect significant differences on the factors. Yet, there are significant differences among the factors that could be attributed to age. Both, policy makers and ICT providers can benefit from the findings with regard to bridging the gap of ICT adoption and use in the Polish households.

A common terrorist threat worldwide is the use of large vehicle bombs to attack high value targets. Detonation of large yield devices can cause significant damage to nearby buildings, facilities and infrastructure with potentially high loss of life and large economic losses. Blast pressures can have major consequences on critical facilities such as nuclear power plants, causing economic loss, environmental damage and system failure. Closely spaced structures in a dense configuration provide a complicated setting for evaluating airblast pressures caused by explosive devices. The presence of multiple buildings can channel the airblast, resulting in significant effects on load magnitudes at range from the detonation. Buildings reflect propagating blast waves causing increased loading at some locations and reduced loads elsewhere due to shielding from direct blast waves. The complex interaction between structures, streets, alleys and geographical terrain can have a major impact on structural loads. Currently, the most common way to estimate airblast pressures resulting from above ground explosive detonations is to use fast running, approximate blast tools such as CONWEP. These simplified tools may not provide accurate guidance on airblast pressures in complex environments. The following paper illustrates the use of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) calculations of complex building configurations to quantify the resulting blast environment. Comparisons with simplified methods are presented. An approach to using a database of CFD simulations, customized for a specific site, to provide a fast running blast assessment tool is described. This approach provides a convenient, fast running tool for designers and security planners to visualize and accurately quantify the hazard from any threat size and location within the area of interest.

1989 and the years following 1991 were the times in which many important economic and political turnovers had taken place in the world. That was the time when Berlin Wall fall down with scattering the Eastern block and many politically and economically independent states came into being, at the same time, ongoing about 70 years socialist system also started to spin into liberal system. The constituted 27 states in 1991 were tended to liberal economic system instead of socialist economy, and these stated were called as transition economies. With the transition period, there has have been significant decreases in the level of affluence, hyperinflation and some common properties seen at the beginning. It became inevitable to get foreign debt for reorganization and configuration of these economies. Nevertheless these foreign debts caused many serious problems in some of these economies. In the present work we tried to understand the economic structure and external loans of the transition economies, which are different with respect to their natural resources and are similar to each other in term of social, political and cultural aspects. It was under debated to investigate the relationship between indicated foreign debts and indicated domestic income and external trade so foreign trade financing problematic which thought to be the source of going into debt and economical development relations are searched.

This study sought to investigate future expectations and laboration of the migrant women from Turkey in Germany. The research was carried out with 570 migrant women from Turkey in Germany in 2012-2013. The data were collected by using a questionnaire developed by the researcher based on a literature review. Data were analyzed with factor analysis by using the statistical package SPSS. According to the research results, a significant number of women said that they are housewives but not working. This result points out the continuity of perception and evaluation of being a housewife “as not a profession and form of labor”. The data about women except from housewives reveals the difficulties in their labor life and also the effectiveness of informal networks on laborization process. Overwhelming majority of these women have experienced various jobs and indicated lower and inadequate wages as the reason of these experiences. In addition, the most effective means in the process of finding jobs is the circle of acquaintances rather than job-creating agencies, trainings and employment tests. As a result of the inadequacy of formal structure, a significant number of women has to work with low wages and not obtained sufficient social benefits. In spite of the difficulties faced by women in their laborization process, a great majority of women have the social security right. The presence of social security, however, could not prevent feeling insecure about their future and negative evaluation about their economic conditions.

The complexity of inter-ethnic relations is caused by various factors, e.g. globalisation processes, the intensification of migration flows, peculiarities of social interactions, and the presence of conflicts in a multi-ethnic environment. In this regard, the aim of our study was to examine the relationship between inter-ethnic attitudes and personal security among respondents of different ethnic backgrounds in different regions of the Russian Federation. Respondents were asked to fill out a questionnaire based on the questionnaire for a comprehensive study of acculturation developed by John Berry, aimed at studying such psychological constructs as the assessment of tolerance/intolerance of ethnic attitudes of the respondent, the assessment of migrant-phobia, the scale of assessment of integral security (physical, cultural, economic), the assessment of orientation towards multicultural ideology, the determination of acculturation expectations/strategies of respondents. The authors have found a statistically significant relationship between such variables as ethnic tolerance, attitudes towards social equality and levels of migrant-phobia; between such variables as economic, physical and cultural security and migrant-phobia. It was found that respondents in the Amur region are mostly oriented towards expectations such as integration and exclusion, while respondents in the Sverdlovsk region are more oriented towards integration and assimilation. The authors believe the study to be important and valuable since the resulting data indicate the presence of different features of inter-ethnic relations in different regions of the Russian Federation, determining the nature of inter- ethnic relations and the level of tension in the region.

In spite of current world economic climates, recognition that alternative energy sources to the traditional fossil fuels has to be explored and understood. One potential energy source being researched and developed is hydrogen gas. Currently the most economical method of transporting large quantities of hydrogen gas is through steel pipelines. It is well known that hydrogen embrittlement has the potential to degrade steel’s mechanical properties when hydrogen migrates into the steel matrix. Consequently, the current pipeline infrastructure used in hydrogen transport is typically operated in a conservative fashion. This operational practice is not conducive to economical movement of significant volumes of hydrogen gas as an alternative to fossil fuels. The degradation of the mechanical properties of steels in hydrogen service is known to depend on the microstructure of the steel. Understanding the levels of mechanical property degradation of a given microstructure when exposed to hydrogen gas under pressure can be used to evaluate the suitability of the existing pipeline infrastructure for hydrogen service and guide alloy and microstructure design for new hydrogen pipeline infrastructure. To this end, the microstructures of relevant steels and their mechanical properties in relevant gaseous hydrogen environments must be fully characterized to establish suitability for transporting hydrogen. Previously data from a US Department of Energy/private sector funded project to evaluate four commercially available pipeline steels alloy/microstructure performance in the presences of gaseous hydrogen was presented in 2010. Interest in this previous work from industry and the ASME B31.12 Hydrogen Piping and Pipeline Systems codes and standards committee resulted in additional funding for continued evaluation of additional pipeline steel alloys/microstructures in the presences of gaseous hydrogen. Samples from API grades X52 (1960’s and current vintage designs), X70 (1980’s and current vintage) and X80 along with various samples from an X52 induction bend pipe and one pressure vessel steel A516 Gr 70 are being evaluated. Microstructural characterization, fracture toughness and fatigue testing in the presence of gaseous hydrogen at 800 psig and 3,000 psig are being conducted. This paper will describe the fracture toughness results achieved to date on various commercially available pipeline steels used in the existing North American pipeline infrastructure in the presence of gaseous hydrogen at pressures relevant for transport in pipelines. Microstructures and fracture toughness performances will be compared between these in this study along with those published previously. In addition, recommendations for future work related to gaining a better understanding of steel pipeline performance in hydrogen service will be discussed.

Purpose – the purpose of this paper is to investigate whether supply line engineering strategies of goods and service exports, exports transport services and export time have a significant impact on GDP growth of BIMSTEC countries or not. Research methodology – the study employed a panel vector error correction model (VECM) instead of loose VAR to examine the short and long-run relationship among the selected indicators and GDP growth. Findings – in the long-run, the time of export negatively and suggestively associate with GDP. Conversely, VECM based Granger causality test signposted that in short-run only unidirectional causality running from goods and service exports (GSE), trade duration like exports time (ET) toward GDP and for the rest of the variables no causality found. Research limitations – this study is contextualized only on Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Practical implications – to investigate the current position of the link between supply line logistics strategies and economic growth by using annual data for the period of 1980 to 2014 and possible weaknesses and logistics presence. Originality/Value – this paper is an attempt, first of its kind, to fill up this shortfall, to estimate the relationship of exports transport services, exports time, and goods and services exports with GDP growth of BIMSTEC countries.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Subtask A “Network analysis and integration” focuses on the overall aspects of district heating and cooling networks with integrated solar thermal (ST) technologies. Particularly important are the cases in which the solar share is such to significantly influence the operation of the network and the other heat/cold supply units. In the present factsheet, the best-practice examples collected in the factsheet A-D1.1 are analyzed and compared.

Economic policy decision-making requires constantly assessing the state of economic activity. However, this is not an easy task: official figures have significant lags, and the timely information is usually partial and has different frequencies. This paper applies two types of short-term forecasting methodologies (Factor-MIDAS and DFM) for Colombian economic activity involving information with mixed frequencies. We present a heuristic process to select relevant variables, and we evaluate the proposed models' fits by comparing them with traditional forecasting methodologies. Overall, DFM and Factor-MIDAS forecasts are better than those generated by conventional methodologies, especially as the flow of information increases. In times of COVID-19, the model with the best relative fit was the DFM.

This paper presents the results of two mobile phone surveys conducted by the Asian Development Bank among farmers in Punjab and Sindh provinces in Pakistan in mid-2020 during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The surveys collected information about how COVID-19-related measures and economic and transport disruptions affected farmers’ harvests, marketing efforts, input prices, and financial needs. The surveys found that the COVID-19 pandemic had significant negative impacts on farm households in both provinces. The paper provides additional context on COVID-19-related effects on local and regional economies and food supply chains. It also covers a simultaneous locust invasion along the India–Pakistan border, which has created “crisis within a crisis” in the surveyed provinces and exacerbated conditions that could lead to famine, disease, and increased poverty.

Today’s China presents fundamental challenges to the democracies of Europe and North America. Perspectives on China will continue to differ due to geography, economic exposure, perceptions, historical trajectories as well as foreign policy approaches. But there has been significant convergence among transatlantic partners. Today, areas of agreement are substantial and offer a solid basis for cooperation. What is needed is a pragmatic approach identifying joint action where possible and managing differences where necessary. This report proposes a transatlantic agenda aimed at achieving quick wins, with recommendations organized by seven issue areas.

Cross-border trade plays a prominent role in economic, social, and political life in Sub-Saharan Africa, contributing significantly to development, poverty reduction, and job creation. Across the continent, cross-border trade accounts for 43 percent of the entire population’s income. As actors embedded in licit and illicit networks at local and regional levels, cross-border traders have the potential to fuel conflict or mitigate it. They can act as spoilers, supporting armed groups and war economies, or as peace intermediaries, negotiating peace deals and bridging conflict divides across communities. Given that most armed conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa are shaped by cross-border dynamics, cross-border traders present an underexamined yet critical point of entry for analyzing and addressing conflicts and should be included in new and ongoing peacebuilding programming. This policy note provides recommendations on how policymakers can leverage the untapped peacebuilding potential of cross-border traders and decrease their spoiling power.

The main recommendations of the panel report can be summarised under five key headings:  HUMANITY The Panel recommends recognition that research in this field should be geared towards the development of critical understandings of self and society in the modern world. Archaeological research into the modern past should be ambitious in seeking to contribute to understanding of the major social, economic and environmental developments through which the modern world came into being. Modern-world archaeology can add significantly to knowledge of Scotland’s historical relationships with the rest of the British Isles, Europe and the wider world. Archaeology offers a new perspective on what it has meant to be a modern person and a member of modern society, inhabiting a modern world.  MATERIALITY The Panel recommends approaches to research which focus on the materiality of the recent past (i.e. the character of relationships between people and their material world). Archaeology’s contribution to understandings of the modern world lies in its ability to situate, humanise and contextualise broader historical developments. Archaeological research can provide new insights into the modern past by investigating historical trends not as abstract phenomena but as changes to real lives, affecting different localities in different ways. Archaeology can take a long-term perspective on major modern developments, researching their ‘prehistory’ (which often extends back into the Middle Ages) and their material legacy in the present. Archaeology can humanise and contextualise long-term processes and global connections by working outwards from individual life stories, developing biographies of individual artefacts and buildings and evidencing the reciprocity of people, things, places and landscapes. The modern person and modern social relationships were formed in and through material environments and, to understand modern humanity, it is crucial that we understand humanity’s material relationships in the modern world.  PERSPECTIVE The Panel recommends the development, realisation and promotion of work which takes a critical perspective on the present from a deeper understanding of the recent past. Research into the modern past provides a critical perspective on the present, uncovering the origins of our current ways of life and of relating to each other and to the world around us. It is important that this relevance is acknowledged, understood, developed and mobilised to connect past, present and future. The material approach of archaeology can enhance understanding, challenge assumptions and develop new and alternative histories. Modern Scotland: Archaeology, the Modern past and the Modern present vi Archaeology can evidence varied experience of social, environmental and economic change in the past. It can consider questions of local distinctiveness and global homogeneity in complex and nuanced ways. It can reveal the hidden histories of those whose ways of life diverged from the historical mainstream. Archaeology can challenge simplistic, essentialist understandings of the recent Scottish past, providing insights into the historical character and interaction of Scottish, British and other identities and ideologies.  COLLABORATION The Panel recommends the development of integrated and collaborative research practices. Perhaps above all other periods of the past, the modern past is a field of enquiry where there is great potential benefit in collaboration between different specialist sectors within archaeology, between different disciplines, between Scottish-based researchers and researchers elsewhere in the world and between professionals and the public. The Panel advocates the development of new ways of working involving integrated and collaborative investigation of the modern past. Extending beyond previous modes of inter-disciplinary practice, these new approaches should involve active engagement between different interests developing collaborative responses to common questions and problems.  REFLECTION The Panel recommends that a reflexive approach is taken to the archaeology of the modern past, requiring research into the nature of academic, professional and public engagements with the modern past and the development of new reflexive modes of practice. Archaeology investigates the past but it does so from its position in the present. Research should develop a greater understanding of modern-period archaeology as a scholarly pursuit and social practice in the present. Research should provide insights into the ways in which the modern past is presented and represented in particular contexts. Work is required to better evidence popular understandings of and engagements with the modern past and to understand the politics of the recent past, particularly its material aspect. Research should seek to advance knowledge and understanding of the moral and ethical viewpoints held by professionals and members of the public in relation to the archaeology of the recent past. There is a need to critically review public engagement practices in modern-world archaeology and develop new modes of public-professional collaboration and to generate practices through which archaeology can make positive interventions in the world. And there is a need to embed processes of ethical reflection and beneficial action into archaeological practice relating to the modern past.

Australia was one of nine countries and economies to participate in the 2018 TALIS-PISA link study, together with Cuidad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (Argentina), Colombia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Georgia, Malta, Turkey and Viet Nam. This study involved coordinating the samples of schools that participated in the Program of International Student Assessment (PISA, a study of the performance of 15-year-old students) and the Teaching and Learning International Survey (TALIS, a study that surveys teachers and principals in lower secondary schools) in 2018. A sample of teachers from schools that were selected to participate in PISA were invited to respond to the TALIS survey. TALIS data provides information regarding the background, beliefs and practices of lower secondary teachers and principals, and PISA data delivers insights into the background characteristics and cognitive and non-cognitive skills of 15-year-old students. Linking these data offers an internationally comparable dataset combining information on key education stakeholders. This report presents results of analyses of the relationships between teacher and school factors and student outcomes, such as performance on the PISA assessment, expectations for further study and experiences of school life. Results for Australia are presented alongside those of the average (mean) across all countries and economies that participated in the TALIS-PISA link study for comparison, but the focus remains on what relationships were significant among Australian students.

Australia was one of nine countries and economies to participate in the 2018 TALIS-PISA link study, together with Cuidad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (Argentina), Colombia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Georgia, Malta, Turkey and Viet Nam. This study involved coordinating the samples of schools that participated in the Program of International Student Assessment (PISA, a study of the performance of 15-year-old students) and the Teaching and Learning International Survey (TALIS, a study that surveys teachers and principals in lower secondary schools) in 2018. A sample of teachers from schools that were selected to participate in PISA were invited to respond to the TALIS survey. TALIS data provides information regarding the background, beliefs and practices of lower secondary teachers and principals, and PISA data delivers insights into the background characteristics and cognitive and non-cognitive skills of 15-year-old students. Linking these data offers an internationally comparable dataset combining information on key education stakeholders. This report presents results of analyses of the relationships between teacher and school factors and student outcomes, such as performance on the PISA assessment, expectations for further study and experiences of school life. Results for Australia are presented alongside those of the average (mean) across all countries and economies that participated in the TALIS-PISA link study for comparison, but the focus remains on what relationships were significant among Australian students.

Many countries worldwide face significant miss reporting in tax declarations. Miss reporting leads to undesired low revenue and economic distortions. This paper discusses the extent to which the residual bookkeeping burden faced by small firms in simplified regimes influence tax declarations. A randomized control trial among 1,500 irregular firms in Piaui, Brazil showed that adding the tax amount due and records on transactions to a warning notification improved compliance in 21 percentage points and increased the reported revenue in 39 percent. Firms without an accountant were less likely to regularize their status without the added information. These findings suggest the use of third party information to support voluntary compliance may present an opportunity for digital services to improve tax revenue services.