Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Shock Mobility“

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Zeitschriftenartikel zum Thema "Shock Mobility"

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Puhani, Patrick A. „Labour Mobility: An Adjustment Mechanism in Euroland? Empirical Evidence for Western Germany, France and Italy“. German Economic Review 2, Nr. 2 (01.05.2001): 127–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0475.00031.

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Abstract We evaluate whether labour mobility is likely to act as a sufficient adjustment mechanism in the face of asymmetric shocks in Euroland. As no adequate data on cross-border migration are available, migration elasticities within nation states (Western Germany, France and Italy) are estimated and interpreted as upper bounds for cross-border migration elasticities between European nation states. Labour mobility is highest in Germany, followed by France and Italy. However, the accommodation of a shock to unemployment by migration takes several years. We conclude that labour mobility is unlikely to act as a sufficient adjustment mechanism to asymmetric shocks in Euroland.
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Esposito, Michele L., Janelle Jablonski, Allison Kras, Sara Krasney und Navin K. Kapur. „Maximum level of mobility with axillary deployment of the Impella 5.0 is associated with improved survival“. International Journal of Artificial Organs 41, Nr. 4 (20.02.2018): 236–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0391398817752575.

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Mobility is an important prognostic indicator for patients with cardiogenic shock. No studies have quantified peak mobility for patients with cardiogenic shock who are supported with the Impella 5.0 acute mechanical circulatory support device. The purpose of our study was to evaluate mobility levels among patients with cardiogenic shock being treated with an axillary Impella 5.0 pump. We retrospectively analyzed data from 19 patients receiving an Impella 5.0 device for cardiogenic shock at our institution from 2013 to 2016. We used the Johns Hopkins Highest Level of Mobility Scale to quantify maximum mobility level achieved during active Impella 5.0 support. Higher scores on a scale of 1–8 indicated more mobility. Activity Measure for Post Acute Care Scores were quantified for each patient to assess activity limitations, with a maximum score 24. The mean age of the total cohort was 60 ± 12 years, and the mean left ventricular ejection fraction was 16% ± 6%. In-hospital mortality was 47% (n = 9). Of the 19 Impella 5.0 implants, 10 survived, 6 died from withdrawal of care, and 3 died from worsening heart failure/cardiogenic shock. Similar rates of mobilization during the time of Impella implant were seen between groups. Compared to non-survivors, survivors achieved a higher maximum Johns Hopkins Highest Level of Mobility level, but similar Activity Measure for Post Acute Care scores. In conclusion, maximum mobility after Impella 5.0 implantation may be associated with improved survival. The clinical utility of exercise as a therapeutic intervention for patients requiring prolonged acute mechanical circulatory support requires further study.
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Mandal, Biswajit. „Recessionary Shock, Capital Mobility and the Informal Sector“. South Asia Economic Journal 17, Nr. 1 (09.02.2016): 149–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1391561415621828.

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Yuk, Sunwoo, Kiwon Choi, Sang-Geon Park und Sukmin Lee. „A Study on the Reliability Test of a Lithium Battery in Medical Electric Wheelchairs for Vulnerable Drivers“. Applied Sciences 9, Nr. 11 (04.06.2019): 2299. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app9112299.

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There are test items for lithium-ion batteries in reliability testing for automobiles and motorcycles, but equivalent test items have not yet been established for mobility scooters (also known as electronic wheelchairs). To evaluate the lithium-ion battery pack or system mounted on a mobility scooter, it is necessary to test vibrations and mechanical shock while driving, independent of tests for the lithium-ion battery cells. In an effort to meet this need, test profiles were established for mobility scooter lithium-ion batteries by performing on-road driving tests and mechanical shock tests. The proposed test profiles were validated using robust statistics and proficiency statistics. The safety of the test profiles was tested in a nationally accredited testing laboratory. As a result, the lithium-ion battery mounted on the mobility scooter was found to have incurred no leakage, short circuit, burst, or explosion. The vibration and mechanical shock test profiles proposed in this study are expected to serve as basis data for establishing standards for mobility scooter safety and reliability.
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Bar, Daniel Z., Maya Davidovich, Ayelet T. Lamm, Hagit Zer, Katherine L. Wilson und Yosef Gruenbaum. „BAF-1 mobility is regulated by environmental stresses“. Molecular Biology of the Cell 25, Nr. 7 (April 2014): 1127–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1091/mbc.e13-08-0477.

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Barrier to autointegration factor (BAF) is an essential component of the nuclear lamina that binds lamins, LEM-domain proteins, histones, and DNA. Under normal conditions, BAF protein is highly mobile when assayed by fluorescence recovery after photobleaching and fluorescence loss in photobleaching. We report that Caenorhabditis elegans BAF-1 mobility is regulated by caloric restriction, food deprivation, and heat shock. This was not a general response of chromatin-associated proteins, as food deprivation did not affect the mobility of heterochromatin protein HPL-1 or HPL-2. Heat shock also increased the level of BAF-1 Ser-4 phosphorylation. By using missense mutations that affect BAF-1 binding to different partners we find that, overall, the ability of BAF-1 mutants to be immobilized by heat shock in intestinal cells correlated with normal or increased affinity for emerin in vitro. These results show BAF-1 localization and mobility at the nuclear lamina are regulated by stress and unexpectedly reveal BAF-1 immobilization as a specific response to caloric restriction in C. elegans intestinal cells.
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Fisher, Mary C., Stephanie K. Moore, Sunny L. Jardine, James R. Watson und Jameal F. Samhouri. „Climate shock effects and mediation in fisheries“. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, Nr. 2 (04.01.2021): e2014379117. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2014379117.

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Climate shocks can reorganize the social–ecological linkages in food-producing communities, leading to a sudden loss of key products in food systems. The extent and persistence of this reorganization are difficult to observe and summarize, but are critical aspects of predicting and rapidly assessing community vulnerability to extreme events. We apply network analysis to evaluate the impact of a climate shock—an unprecedented marine heatwave—on patterns of resource use in California fishing communities, which were severely affected through closures of the Dungeness crab fishery. The climate shock significantly modified flows of users between fishery resources during the closures. These modifications were predicted by pre-shock patterns of resource use and were associated with three strategies used by fishing community member vessels to respond to the closures: temporary exit from the food system, spillover of effort from the Dungeness crab fishery into other fisheries, and spatial shifts in where crab were landed. Regional differences in resource use patterns and vessel-level responses highlighted the Dungeness crab fishery as a seasonal “gilded trap” for northern California fishing communities. We also detected disparities in climate shock response based on vessel size, with larger vessels more likely to display spatial mobility. Our study demonstrates the importance of highly connected and decentralized networks of resource use in reducing the vulnerability of human communities to climate shocks.
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Dushchenko, Vladislav, Serhii Vorontsov, Vyacheslav Masliyev, Oleg Agapov, Roman Nanivskyi, Yurii Cherevko und Anton Masliiev. „Comparing the physical principles of action of suspension damping devices based on their influence on the mobility of wheeled vehicles“. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies 4, Nr. 5(112) (31.08.2021): 51–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2021.237312.

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This paper reports the comparison of two physical principles of action of suspension damping devices based on their influence on the mobility indicators for an 8×8 wheeled machine. A radical difference between these principles of action is the dependence of resistance forces on the speed of the relative movement of working bodies (internal friction: hydraulic shock absorbers) or on the relative movement of working bodies (external friction: friction shock absorbers). Widespread hydraulic shock absorbers have certain disadvantages that do not make it possible to further increase the mobility of wheeled or tracked vehicles without the use of control and recuperation systems. In turn, in friction shock absorbers, the use of new materials has eliminated many of their shortcomings and thus can provide significant advantages. It was established that the application of friction shock absorbers for a given wheeled vehicle did not significantly affect the speed compared to hydraulic ones. The main factor that prevented the implementation of the advantages of friction shock absorbers was the insufficient suspension travel. However, friction shock absorbers absorbed 1.76...2.3 times less power, which reduced the load on nodes and increased efficiency (autonomy). In addition, a more uniform load on suspensions was ensured, which improved their resource, and, due to the prevailing vertical oscillations of the suspended body over the longitudinal-angular ones, the geometric passability improved as well. The comparison of two physical principles of action of damper suspension devices in a wheeled vehicle has shown that the use of friction shock absorbers could provide significant advantages in resolving the task relates to improving the mobility and would fundamentally affect the choice of the suspension energy recuperation system if it is applied.
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Tsapenko, I. Р. „CROSS-BORDER POPULATION MOBILITY AMID AND AFTER THE PANDEMIC SHOCK“. Social & labor researches 40, Nr. 3 (2020): 31–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.34022/2658-3712-2020-40-3-31-43.

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Martinez, J., J. Perez-Serrano, W. E. Bernadina und F. Rodriguez-Caabeiro. „Expression of Hsp90, Hsp70 and Hsp60 in Trichinella species exposed to oxidative shock“. Journal of Helminthology 76, Nr. 3 (September 2002): 217–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/joh2002127.

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AbstractStress response and phosphorylation of heat shock proteins (HSPs) 60, 70 and 90 were studied in Trichinella nativa, T. nelsoni, T. pseudospiralis and T. spiralis larvae at 30-min intervals following exposure to 20, 100 and 200 mM H2O2. There was a time- and dose-dependent differential survival for the infective stage larvae (L1) of these four Trichinella species. Immunoblotting analysis revealed that constitutive Hsp60 and Hsp70, but not Hsp90, from test Trichinella species are constitutively phosphorylated on serine/threonine residues as they converted to forms with increased sodium dodecyl sulphate–polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS–PAGE) mobility by treatment with alkaline phosphatase. After exposure to H2O2, while there was a time-related occurrence of the three HSPs with decreased SDS–PAGE mobility, these HSPs were insensitive to alkaline phosphatase except in the case of exposure to 20 mM H2O2 for Hsp60 from all Trichinella species and Hsp70 from T. spiralis and T. nelsoni. The synthesis of HSPs forms with decreased SDS–PAGE mobility is a susceptibility signal because the lower concentration of peroxide (20 mM) did not cause a decrease on HSPs SDS–PAGE mobility in T. spiralis and T. nelsoni, the two more resistant selected Trichinella species.
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Cajone, F., M. Salina und A. Benelli-Zazzera. „4-Hydroxynonenal induces a DNA-binding protein similar to the heat-shock factor“. Biochemical Journal 262, Nr. 3 (15.09.1989): 977–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1042/bj2620977.

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By using a gel mobility assay, we have shown that treatment of HeLa cells with 4-hydroxynonenal, a major product of the peroxidation of membrane lipids and an inducer of heat-shock proteins, has the same effect as heat shock in causing the appearance of a protein which binds to the sequence of DNA specific for the induction of heat-shock genes. Lipoperoxidation and heat exposure seem to share a common mechanism of specific gene activation.
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Dissertationen zum Thema "Shock Mobility"

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Curl, Heather D. „The "ongoing culture shock" of upward mobility| Cultural capital, symbolic violence and implications for family relationships“. Thesis, University of Pennsylvania, 2013. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3594289.

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Social mobility is often viewed as a way to alleviate poverty and create equality; it represents the basis upon which the United States is viewed as a meritocratic nation of opportunity. Missing from this persistent narrative, however, is analysis of the actual experience of social mobility. This qualitative study explores the narratives of individuals as they reflect on their experiences of upward mobility through education. Data include in-depth interviews with 25 individuals with an advanced degree whose parents did not attend college, and 10 individuals who have an advanced degree similar to their parents. This study considers three dimensions of cultural capital—embodied cultural capital associated with how individuals present themselves, linguistic cultural capital associated with how individuals speak and communicate and cultural capital related to taste, beliefs and knowledge, associated with individual’s leisure time choices, food and drink preferences and beliefs about the world. Across data, mobile individuals express the expectation or need to take on the cultural practices and behavior of their new class context. Data suggest that the process through which upwardly mobile individuals experience shifts in culture is more complex than currently conceived. In addition, these changes in culture can lead to internal conflict and difficulty in connection with families of origin; representing the potential costs of upward mobility. Implications include an amendment to cultural mobility research and to current strategies in urban education which position cultural capital as a character trait that can be learned or taken up by individuals.

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Foxworth, Judy L. Padua Darin A. „Effects of shock absorbing insoles on knee pain, functional mobility, and lower extremity biomechanics in persons with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis“. Chapel Hill, N.C. : University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2007. http://dc.lib.unc.edu/u?/etd,1367.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2007.
Title from electronic title page (viewed Apr. 25, 2008). "... in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of PhD in the School of Medicine Human Movement Science Curriculum." Discipline: Human Movement Science; Department/School: Medicine.
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Schwab, Vera. „Towards more resilient border twin cities? The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic induced (im)mobility shock on two European border twin cities“. Thesis, Stockholms universitet, Kulturgeografiska institutionen, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-193844.

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When the COVID-19 pandemic hit Europe in the beginning of 2020, a majority of countries reacted by closing their state borders. By drawing on concepts of border studies and border regional resilience, this thesis aims to examine the impact of the (im)mobility shock caused by the pandemic on two border twin cities in Europe. Through a qualitative approach, conducting semi-structured expert interviews and content analyses, the thesis attempts to identify (1) Which factors facilitated/obstructed the coping/adapting strategies to the problems caused by the pandemic induced state border closures; and (2) Which long-term effects the COVID-19 crisis will have on the future development of the border twin cities and whether their development path will transform into a more resilient one. The main finding of this thesis is that the crisis management on the local level was considerably limited by the restrictions enacted at the national level. To be better prepared for similar shocks, the border twin cities have already made plans based on their experience. However, it remains to be seen whether these strategies can contribute to the resilience of the cities. Nevertheless, coordination between the local, regional and national level is essential to plan and establish resilient border twin cities.
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Al, Zubia Salem. „La mobilité d'étudiants libyens en France : relever le défi de l'altérité - un pari impossible ? une approche quantitative et exploratoire“. Thesis, Besançon, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015BESA1020.

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Notre recherche s'intéresse à la mobilité étudiante libyenne. Les particularités du public concerné ainsi que les objectifs de leur séjour en France différencient à plusieurs égards cette mobilité d'autres formes de mobilité académique. En effet, notre échantillon est constitué de professeurs (dans différents domaines) ayant repris des études et qui sont, en partie, des non-spécialistes en langue française, donc sans connaissance préalable de cette langue. Un certain nombre de ces étudiants était accompagné de leur famille. Ces faits constituent les spécificités les plus saillantes de l'échantillon d'enquête. L'étude s'intéresse, au moyen d'une approche quantitative, au parcours de ces étudiants « particuliers ». Notre recherche veut mettre en lumière les manières dont ces étudiants, qui ont longtemps vécu dans un système fermé où ils étaient, entre autres, exposés à la diffusion d'images négatives sur l'Occident ont fait face à une altérité linguistique et culturelle très différente de leur milieu d'origine. Elle interroge l'impact du choc culturel, les stratégies d'adaptation à des pratiques sociales qui ne leur sont absolument pas familières et leur disposition à l'ouverture. Une importance particulière est accordée à l'influence de la religion, base de leur culture d'origine, sur la perception de la différence. Nous montrons que la mise en perspective de deux univers opposés induira des questionnements sur l'autre et sur soi auxquels les étudiants répondront par une forte résistance au milieu d'accueil, nourrie par un bouclier identitaire omniprésent, même si l'expérience a permis à certains d'acquérir un regard plus large sur la différence et sur l'échange avec l'autre différent. Par ailleurs, l'étude pointe les failles du système éducatif libyen et de la politique éducative libyenne en général, caractérisés par un manque de vision globale et de décisions aléatoires. Par ses résultats, l'étude espère contribuer à améliorer la compréhension des problèmes spécifiques auxquels ces étudiants sont confrontés et qui rendent indispensables une préparation, un accompagnement ainsi qu'un retour réflexif sur l'expérience
Our research deals with the Libyan students’ mobility, but this study differs from the usual student studies due to the nature of its sample and the objectives of this mobility. Indeed, our sample is composed of professors (in different areas) who have resumed studies, a growing number of non-specialists in French who have never studied this language before, and finally the very nature of this mobility is intriguing because these professors have moved with their families. We are talking about the specificities of the Libyan students’ mobility. Through a thorough study, the work focuses on the journey of these students 'special needs'. Indeed this work is to measure the extent of the culture shock experienced by these very students. The analysis shed light on the dynamics of their representations. The encounter with other students revealed our own students many realities about themselves during their time at universities. Our students who also have developed strong resistance home about Western identities nourished by an omnipresent identity shield face challenges and have to debunk some misinterpretations. Although the factors influencing on the social background are important, we were able to identify the most important ones for our respondents. The study also emphasizes on the flaws of the Libyan education system, and the Libyan educational policies in general, characterized by a lack of global vision and partial decision making. The result of this study can contribute to better preparation for Libyan students who want to study abroad and also to suggest that more intercultural awareness must be taken into consideration when it comes to students’ mobility
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Bierworth, Rick Daniel. „Design of a rear-wheel after-market suspension system for manual wheelchairs“. [Tampa, Fla.] : University of South Florida, 2007. http://purl.fcla.edu/usf/dc/et/SFE0001964.

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Rojas, Carlos. „The Impact of Migration on Natives’ Unemployment Rates : A study on the municipal level in Sweden“. Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Nationalekonomi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-32839.

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The following is a study of the impact of migration on unemployment rates for natives in Sweden, on municipal level. A cross sectional data set has been analyzed using multiple linear regressions. The regression analysis has searched for the impact on the unemployment rates among natives of the size of the share of migrants in the municipalities as well as of the change in the size of the share of migrants during a time span of 13 years. The results show that migration has small or non-existent impact on the unemployment rates of natives. The results vary depending on the period being investigated and also depending on the characteristics of the municipality that is investigated. When dividing the municipalities into three categories (city, urban and rural municipalities) significant impact of migration on native’s unemployment rates is to be found in city and urban municipalities, but not in rural. The results also indicate that the most significant impact is to be found in the present period of time, while in the long term the impact diminishes to become less significant or not significant at all. 10% migrants in a city municipality in 2015 increased natives’ unemployment level that same year by 0.4 percentage units. More rapid increases of the share of migrants in the labor force have more impact as well. A municipality were the share of migrants grew with 1 percentage unit between 2003 and 2015, had 0.1 percentage unit higher unemployment rate for natives in 2015. This study’s results follow the pattern from earlier studies in the field, that since the 1990’s have shown similar effects when measuring different countries on different continents – sometimes the effect has been significant, sometimes not, and when significant the impact has been rather small, often clustering around zero.
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Rios, de Anda Agustin. „Influence of the solvent sorption, additivation, and chemical modification on the molecular mobility dynamics of Polyamide 6,6 amorphous phase and its consequences on the tensile and impact strength properties of this polymer“. Thesis, Lyon 1, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012LYO10259/document.

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Ce travail s’inscrit dans le projet de développement des réservoirs essence pour voitures à partir des formulations Polyamide 6,6 (PA6,6). Le PA6,6 est un bon candidat pour des applications techniques car il possède des bonnes propriétés thermomécaniques rapportés à son poids. Ces formulations doivent montrer des bonnes propriétés barrière aux essences classiques, aux biofuels (essence contenant de l’éthanol) et aussi à l’eau qui est présente dans l’atmosphère, tout en ayant une bonne tenue aux chocs.Les enjeux scientifiques sont la meilleure compréhension des interactions entre le PA6,6 et des solvants purs de polarités et tailles différentes mais aussi des mélanges ternaires composés d’éthanol, toluène et isooctane à différentes concentrations et qui modélisent les biofuels. On veut aussi étudier l’effet de ces solvants sur la température de transition vitreuse Tg qui est la signature de la mobilité moléculaire de la phase amorphe. Ensuite, l’effet de l’additivation ou de l’ajout des co-monomères sur les propriétés barrière et mécaniques, notamment les propriétés choc, a été étudié. Dans ce travail nous avons pu décrire comment la nature d’un solvant conditionne sa sorption et son effet plastifiant dans le PA6,6. On a aussi observé que la nature et les interactions interchaînes de la matrice polymère conditionnent aussi la prise en solvants. De plus, une approche thermodynamique a été proposée pour étudier et comprendre la sorption de mélanges ternaires éthanol-toluène-isooctane et leur effet plastifiant dans le PA6,6. On a aussi montré que les propriétés mécaniques du PA6,6 dépendent ou sont liées à l’état de mobilité moléculaire de la phase amorphe de ce polymère
This work forms part of a project aimed to develop Polyamide 6,6(PA6,6)-based automotive fuel tanks. PA6,6 is a good candidate for technical applications since it possesses good thermo-mechanical properties compared to its weight. These formulations must exhibit good impermeable properties to classic gasoline, to biofuels (gasoline containing ethanol), and to water which is found in the atmosphere, while keeping good impact behavior.The scientific issues are the better understanding of PA6,6-solvent interactions in the case of a series of solvents having different sizes and polarities and also for a set of ternary mixtures composed of ethanol, toluene, and isooctane at various concentrations that model biofuels. The effect of these solvents on the glass transition temperature Tg (molecular mobility signature) was assessed. The effect of additivating or chemically-modifying PA6,6 on the impact and barrier properties of the polymer was studied.In this work, it was described how the nature of a solvent conditions its sorption and its plasticizing effect on PA6,6. It was also observed that the PA6,6 inter-chain interactions also condition the solvent sorption. Moreover, a thermodynamic approach describing the sorption and plasticizing effects of ternary mixtures in PA6,6 was considered and developed. It was also observed that PA6,6 mechanical properties depend or are related to the amorphous phase molecular mobility state
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Rios, de Anda Agustin, und de Anda Agustin Rios. „Influence of the solvent sorption, additivation, and chemical modification on the molecular mobility dynamics of Polyamide 6,6 amorphous phase and its consequences on the tensile and impact strength properties of this polymer“. Phd thesis, Université Claude Bernard - Lyon I, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00933978.

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This work forms part of a project aimed to develop Polyamide 6,6(PA6,6)-based automotive fuel tanks. PA6,6 is a good candidate for technical applications since it possesses good thermo-mechanical properties compared to its weight. These formulations must exhibit good impermeable properties to classic gasoline, to biofuels (gasoline containing ethanol), and to water which is found in the atmosphere, while keeping good impact behavior.The scientific issues are the better understanding of PA6,6-solvent interactions in the case of a series of solvents having different sizes and polarities and also for a set of ternary mixtures composed of ethanol, toluene, and isooctane at various concentrations that model biofuels. The effect of these solvents on the glass transition temperature Tg (molecular mobility signature) was assessed. The effect of additivating or chemically-modifying PA6,6 on the impact and barrier properties of the polymer was studied.In this work, it was described how the nature of a solvent conditions its sorption and its plasticizing effect on PA6,6. It was also observed that the PA6,6 inter-chain interactions also condition the solvent sorption. Moreover, a thermodynamic approach describing the sorption and plasticizing effects of ternary mixtures in PA6,6 was considered and developed. It was also observed that PA6,6 mechanical properties depend or are related to the amorphous phase molecular mobility state.
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Bolland, Amber. „Stuck in Times of COVID-19 : Representation of Migrants in New Zealand during the COVID-19 pandemic“. Thesis, Malmö universitet, Institutionen för globala politiska studier (GPS), 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-43583.

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This thesis examines the representation of temporary migrants in the OCVID-19 pandemic in New Zealand. The aim of the study is to understand how the pandemic effected this early decision making by the New Zealand Parliament in correlation with migration, more specific, the temporary migrants who are stuck within New Zealands borders. These issues can be linked with shock mobility, more specific, with immobility within shock. The material is analysed with the WPR method. The study concludes that there is a changing discourse and a changing representation of the temporary migrants. Where at first the New Zealand citizens have to be protected, later on in the discourse the migrants need to be helped and it is followed by financial gain that the temporary migrants bring with their labour and spending. The findings create a contribution in the field of shock mobility, with a focus on the immobility within shock mobility.
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Francis, Neville. „Essays on human capital and technology shocks /“. Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2001. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3013694.

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Bücher zum Thema "Shock Mobility"

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S, Cameron Robert. Mobility, shock, and firepower: The emergence of the U.S. Army's armor branch, 1917-1945. Washington, D.C: Center of Military History United States Army, 2008.

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Klau, Friedrich. Labour market flexibility and external price shocks. Paris, France: OECD, 1985.

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Gazioglu, S. Influence of fiscal shocks and varying marginal propensity to consume (MPC) on exchange rate volatility under imperfect capital mobility and asset substitutability. Aberdeen: University of Aberdeen, Dept. of Economics, 1991.

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Mobility, Shock, And Firepower: The Emergence Of The U. S. Army's Armor Branch, 1917-1945. Washington, D.C., USA: U.S. G.P.O., 2008.

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Verme, Paolo, Abdoul Gadiry Barry, Jamal Guennouni und Mohamed Taamouti. Labor Mobility, Economic Shocks, and Jobless Growth: Evidence from Panel Data in Morocco. The World Bank, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6795.

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Hellwig, Timothy, Yesola Kweon und Jack Vowles. Democracy Under Siege? Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198846208.001.0001.

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For the worlds democracies, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008–9 was catalyst for the most precipitous economic downturn in eight decades. This book examines how the GFC and ensuing Great Recession affected the workings of mass politics in the established democracies. The initial wave of research on the crisis concluded it did little to change the established relationships between voters, parties, and elections. Yet, nearly a decade since the initial shock, we are witnessing a wave of political changes, the extent to which has not been fully explained by existing studies. How did the economic malaise bear on the political preferences of citizens? This book pushes against the received wisdom by advancing a framework for understanding citizen attitudes, preferences, and behaviour. We make two main claims. First, while previous studies of the GFC tend to focus on an immediate impact of the crisis, we argue that economic malaise had a long-lasting impact. In addition to economic shock, we emphasize that economic recovery has a significant impact on citizens assessment of political elites. Second, we argue that unanticipated exogenous shocks like the GFC grant party elites an opening for political manoeuvre through public policy and rhetoric. As a result, political elites have a high degree of agency to shape public perceptions and behaviour. Political parties can strategically moderate citizens economic uncertainty, mobilize/demobilize voters, and alter individuals political preferences. By leveraging data from over 150,000 individuals across over 100 nationally representative post-election surveys from the 1990s to 2017, this book tests these research claims across a range of outcomes, including economic perceptions, policy demands, political participation, and the vote.
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Portillo, Rafael. A Structural Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in the CEMAC Region. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198785811.003.0020.

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The author analyses inflation in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community. First, a semi-structural VAR is used to identify the sources of inflation empirically; the chapter finds that fiscal shocks and the commodity price shocks that generally drive them have been important sources of inflation volatility, with monetary policy passively accommodating. A DSGE model is then developed and calibrated to replicate the empirical findings and to study the implications of a more active monetary policy. This active policy would involve greater (sterilized) reserve accumulation, which under the plausible assumption of limited capital mobility can help contain equilibrium appreciation pressures and therefore inflation, but at the cost of crowding out the private sector. Attempting to use monetary policy to contain inflation under a fixed exchange rate has important drawbacks, which highlights the need to rely on fiscal policy for macro and price stability in these countries.
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Fagiolo, Giorgio. The International Trade Network. Herausgegeben von Jennifer Nicoll Victor, Alexander H. Montgomery und Mark Lubell. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190228217.013.29.

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This chapter critically reviews the stream of literature that has recently applied the theory of complex networks to the study of international trade. It surveys three interrelated lines of research. First it discusses descriptive work aimed at characterizing the topological properties of the international trade network (ITN) and their evolution. Second, it describes simple models that can replicate and explain those empirical properties. Third, it looks at how the topological properties of the ITN can be used as predictors of the future performance of world countries and the diffusion of economic shocks. Finally, the chapter argues that a promising avenue for future research in this field may involve analyzing in a common network framework not only trade relations but also other bilateral linkages among countries, including, inter alia, finance, investment, and human mobility.
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Piatkowski, Marcin. What Black Death was to Western Europe, Communism was to Central and Eastern Europe. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198789345.003.0004.

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I argue in this chapter that despite its ultimate social, economic, and moral bankruptcy, communism imposed on Poland after 1945 sowed the seeds of the country’s economic success after 1989. The old, feudal social structures were bulldozed to snap Poland out of growth-inhibiting extractive society equilibrium, creating a classless society, boosting social mobility, and securing good quality of education for all. Forced industrialization and unprecedented labour movements supported solid GDP growth rates in Poland until the 1960s, but low returns on investment, lack of technological progress, and external shocks caused declining growth rates in the 1970s, and economic stagnation in the 1980s. I conclude that the assumption that if Poland had returned to capitalism after 1945, it would have developed as quickly as the West, is simplistic. I show that a capitalist Poland would have faced significant challenges to growth, and convergence with the West would not have been guaranteed.
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Richards, Eric. The genesis of international mass migration. Manchester University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.7228/manchester/9781526131485.001.0001.

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Very large numbers of people began to depart the British Isles for the New Worlds after about 1770. This was a pioneering movement, a rehearsal for modern international migration. This book contends that emigration history is not seamless, that it contains large shifts over time and place, and that the modern scale and velocity of mobility have very particular historical roots. The Isle of Man is an ideal starting point in the quest for the engines and mechanisms of emigration, and a particular version of the widespread surge in British emigration in the 1820s. West Sussex was much closer to the centres of the expansionary economy in the new age. North America was the earliest and the greatest theatre of oceanic emigration in which the methods of mass migration were pioneered. Landlocked Shropshire experienced some of the earliest phases of British industrialisation, notably in the Ironbridge/Coalbrookdale district, deep inland on the River Severn. The turmoil in the agrarian and demographic foundations of life reached across the British archipelago. In West Cork and North Tipperary, there was clear evidence of the great structural changes that shook the foundations of these rural societies. The book also discusses the sequences and effects of migration in Wales, Swaledale, Cornwall, Kent, London, and Scottish Highlands. It also deals with Ireland’s place in the more generic context of the origins of migration from the British Isles. The common historical understanding is that the pre-industrial population of the British Isles had been held back by Malthusian checks.
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Buchteile zum Thema "Shock Mobility"

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Meir, G., und R. J. Clifton. „Dislocation Mobility in High Purity LiF from 100°K to 300°K“. In Shock Waves in Condensed Matter, 303–7. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-2207-8_40.

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Gazioḡlu, Şaziye. „Influence of Fiscal Shocks on Exchange Rate Volatility under Imperfect Capital Mobility and Asset Substitutability“. In Open-Economy Macroeconomics, 167–85. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-12884-6_9.

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„Redefining culture shock in a European context“. In Student Mobility and Narrative in Europe, 137–57. Routledge, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780203167038-11.

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Jones, Helen. „Broader Horizons and Greater Confidence: UK Students’ Learning from Mobility“. In Globalisation, Education and Culture Shock, 68–85. Routledge, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781315254159-6.

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Boafo-Arthur, Susan, und Ama Boafo-Arthur. „Help Seeking Behaviors of International Students“. In Global Perspectives and Local Challenges Surrounding International Student Mobility, 262–80. IGI Global, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-9746-1.ch014.

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International students' pursuit of education in the United States (US) is mutually beneficial to both international students and the economy of the United States. Students often experience culture shock or transitional stress upon arrival. Despite these challenges, research indicates that international students are not likely to seek professional counseling to manage or resolve their issues. In the event that they seek help they are known to prefer medical instead of psychological help. Authors in this chapter review the influence of stigma and acculturational variables on help seeking behaviors of international students. The authors also discuss implications for international students and institutions of higher education, and conclude with recommendations that may be beneficial to international students, student counseling services, and institutions of higher education in the United States.
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Yang, Ping. „Intercultural Communication between East and West“. In Handbook of Research on Study Abroad Programs and Outbound Mobility, 755–77. IGI Global, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-0169-5.ch030.

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This chapter examines verbal and non-verbal intercultural communication challenges faced by Australian students studying abroad in China. Using intercultural communication theories, the author analyses potential cultural shock and intercultural differences to help Australian students be aware of academic and social survival skills in their destination country. While there are many publications about international students' intercultural communication issues and intercultural adaptation difficulties within English-speaking countries, there are comparatively few works on Australian students' intercultural communication competence needed for living in China. This chapter looks at pedagogical implications of intercultural communication training for Australian students prior to their overseas studies and outbound mobility experience.
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Yang, Ping. „Intercultural Communication Between East and West“. In Multicultural Instructional Design, 840–62. IGI Global, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-9279-2.ch039.

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This chapter examines verbal and non-verbal intercultural communication challenges faced by Australian students studying abroad in China. Using intercultural communication theories, the author analyses potential cultural shock and intercultural differences to help Australian students be aware of academic and social survival skills in their destination country. While there are many publications about international students' intercultural communication issues and intercultural adaptation difficulties within English-speaking countries, there are comparatively few works on Australian students' intercultural communication competence needed for living in China. This chapter looks at pedagogical implications of intercultural communication training for Australian students prior to their overseas studies and outbound mobility experience.
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Winson, Ian. „How the foot and ankle works (mechanics of the foot)“. In Oxford Textbook of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, herausgegeben von Umraz Khan, 661–64. Oxford University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199682874.003.0063.

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This chapter examines the mechanics of the foot from the clinician’s perspective. The kinematics, kinetics, muscle balance, and stability of the foot and ankle are complex, as the foot has evolved to provide shock absorption, stability, propulsion, and accommodation. It does this by maintaining a stable, balanced structure in all positions of the foot. The mobility of the joints together with their stabilizing structures (the ligaments of the foot), and the complex balance between muscle tension and tendon position relative to the axis of rotation of the joints, are responsible for this function. As a consequence of this complex dynamic structure, the foot stores a significant amount of energy during ambulation, and its efficient use of this is a major reason for the ability of humans to travel long distances.
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Sadowski-Smith, Claudia. „The Post-Soviet Diaspora in Comparative Perspective“. In New Immigrant Whiteness. NYU Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.18574/nyu/9781479847730.003.0006.

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This chapter analyzes additional data from my interviews with post-Soviet immigrants and Gary Shteyngart’s novel Super Sad True Love Story (2010) in order to outline connections between post-USSR, Latina/o, and Asian American migration. In the interviews, post-Soviet migrants largely stressed their ambivalence toward laws like Arizona’s 2010 Senate Bill 1070 that target undocumented migration and from which they expected exemption because of their differential modes of entry. Because of their shared status as immigrants or experiences with state surveillance in the USSR or in post-Soviet nations, however, interviewees also expressed empathy with Mexican immigrants as the group most targeted by the law. While these views are reminiscent of turn of the twentieth century European immigrants’ insistence on their differences from nonwhite contemporaries, they also recall eastern European Jewish immigrants’ ambivalence toward or rejection of white supremacy through empathy with African Americans because of their own marginalization in the Russian empire. Set in a dystopian United States that is undergoing similar neoliberal shock therapies as the former Soviet Union, Shteyngart’s novel draws attention to parallels between second-generation Russian Jewish immigrants and Asian Americans, who are similarly associated with upward mobility, while Latina/os and African Americans are considered losers in the neoliberal era.
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„Mobility and Economic Resilience in Melanesia“. In Household Vulnerability and Resilience to Economic Shocks, 85–100. Routledge, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781315587097-14.

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Konferenzberichte zum Thema "Shock Mobility"

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Novothny, Ferenc. „E-mobility Protection Against Electric Shock“. In 2020 IEEE 3rd International Conference and Workshop in Óbuda on Electrical and Power Engineering (CANDO-EPE). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/cando-epe51100.2020.9337788.

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Andreotti, Luciano C., und Sérgio N. Vannucci. „Shock Absorber Mathematical Modeling“. In SAE Brasil 98 VII International Mobility Technology Conference and Exhibit. 400 Commonwealth Drive, Warrendale, PA, United States: SAE International, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.4271/982959.

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Vieira, Dirceu, Fernando Tizzo, Samuel Lopes Souza und Eduardo Baptista. „Influencing Factors of Lag in Shock Absorber“. In SAE Brasil 97 VI International Mobility Technology Conference and Exhibit. 400 Commonwealth Drive, Warrendale, PA, United States: SAE International, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.4271/973098.

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Oricchio, Lourenço A., und Roberto H. Hayashi. „Integrated Sealing System for Shock Absorber in Vehicle Suspensions“. In SAE Brasil 97 VI International Mobility Technology Conference and Exhibit. 400 Commonwealth Drive, Warrendale, PA, United States: SAE International, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.4271/973099.

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da Silva Rosa, Silas Luis S. P., und Sérgio N. Vannucci. „Dimensioning of Fixations in Vehicle Shock Absorbers Static of Eyes“. In SAE Brasil 98 VII International Mobility Technology Conference and Exhibit. 400 Commonwealth Drive, Warrendale, PA, United States: SAE International, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.4271/982888.

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Colla, Antonio S. „Suspension Shock Absorber Piston Seal System Evolution Using Molded P.T.F.E. Rings“. In SAE Brasil 97 VI International Mobility Technology Conference and Exhibit. 400 Commonwealth Drive, Warrendale, PA, United States: SAE International, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.4271/973094.

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Ueda, Jun, Melih Turkseven, Euisun Kim, Quincy Lowery, Courtland Bivens und Michael Mayo. „Shock Absorbing Exoskeleton for Vertical Mobility System: Concept and Feasibility Study“. In 2018 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems (IROS). IEEE, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iros.2018.8593820.

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Jadhav, Yuvaraj M., und Yuvraj V. Dhanal. „Test Methodology with Shock Loads and Fatigue Limit of Press Fitted Gears on Shaft“. In 8th SAEINDIA International Mobility Conference & Exposition and Commercial Vehicle Engineering Congress 2013 (SIMCOMVEC). 400 Commonwealth Drive, Warrendale, PA, United States: SAE International, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.4271/2013-01-2794.

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Cheirmakani, Bala Manikandan, Balamurugan Pandian, Lionel Beneston und Balamurugan Subburaj. „Investigation of Thermal Shock Resistance of CeO2 Coating on Titanium Alloy by Magnetron Sputtering“. In International Conference on Advances in Design, Materials, Manufacturing and Surface Engineering for Mobility. 400 Commonwealth Drive, Warrendale, PA, United States: SAE International, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4271/2019-28-0103.

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Garzeri, Flavio José, Angelo Nuti und Reyolando M. L. R. F. Brasil. „Improvement of Internal Noise Characteristics of a Vehicle with McPherson Suspension by Mass Addition to the Rod of the shock absorber“. In SAE Brasil 97 VI International Mobility Technology Conference and Exhibit. 400 Commonwealth Drive, Warrendale, PA, United States: SAE International, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.4271/973062.

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Berichte der Organisationen zum Thema "Shock Mobility"

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Nakamura, Emi, Jósef Sigurdsson und Jón Steinsson. The Gift of Moving: Intergenerational Consequences of a Mobility Shock. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Juli 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w22392.

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Quillen, William S., und M. J. Highsmith. Metabolic and Biomechanical Measures of Gait Efficiency of Three Multi-Axial, Vertical Shock and Energy Storing Return Prosthetic Feet During Simple & Complex Mobility Activities. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, Oktober 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada574692.

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Quillen, William S., und M. J. Highsmith. Metabolic and Biomechanical Measures of Gait Efficiency of Three Multi-Axial, Vertical Shock and Energy Storing Return Prosthetic Feet During Simple & Complex Mobility Activities. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, Oktober 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada601342.

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Quillen, William S., und M. J. Highsmith. Metabolic and Biomechanical Measures of Gait Efficiency of Three Multi-Axial, Vertical Shock and Energy Storing-Return Prosthetic Feet During Simple and Complex Mobility Activities. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, Dezember 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada615208.

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Cazamias, J., D. Lassila, M. Shehadeh und H. Zbib. A Report on the use of Weak-Shock Wave Profiles and 3-D Dislocation Dynamics Simulations for Validation of Dislocation Multiplication and Mobility in the Phonon Drag Regime. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), Februar 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/15013922.

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Borjas, George, und Kirk Doran. Cognitive Mobility: Labor Market Responses to Supply Shocks in the Space of Ideas. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Dezember 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w18614.

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Aromi, J. Daniel, María Paula Bonel, Julián Cristia, Martín Llada und Luis Palomino. Socioeconomic Status and Mobility during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Analysis of Eight Large Latin American Cities. Inter-American Development Bank, Juni 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003315.

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This study analyzes mobility patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic for eight large Latin American cities. Indicators of mobility by socioeconomic status (SES) are generated by combining georeferenced mobile phone information with granular census data. Before the pandemic, a strong positive association between SES and mobility is documented. With the arrival of the pandemic, in most cases, a negative association between mobility and SES emerges. This new pattern is explained by a notably stronger reduction in mobility by high-SES individuals. A comparison of mobility for SES decile 1 vs decile 10 shows that, on average, the reduction is 75% larger in the case of decile 10. According to estimated lasso models, an indicator of government restrictions provides a parsimonious description of these heterogeneous responses. These estimations point to noticeable similarities in the patterns observed across cities. We also explore how the median distance traveled changed for individuals that travel at least 1 km (the intensive margin). We find that the reduction in mobility in this indicator was larger for high-SES individuals compared to low-SES individuals in six out of eight cities analyzed. The evidence is consistent with asymmetries in the feasibility of working from home and in the ability to smooth consumption under temporary income shocks.
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Vargas-Herrera, Hernando, Juan Jose Ospina-Tejeiro, Carlos Alfonso Huertas-Campos, Adolfo León Cobo-Serna, Edgar Caicedo-García, Juan Pablo Cote-Barón, Nicolás Martínez-Cortés et al. Monetary Policy Report - April de 2021. Banco de la República de Colombia, Juli 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr2-2021.

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1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
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