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1

Terefe, Abiyot Negash, und Samuel Getachew Zewudie. „Trend Analysis and Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Ethiopia“. Journal of Research in Health Sciences 21, Nr. 3 (12.08.2021): e00523-e00523. http://dx.doi.org/10.34172/jrhs.2021.59.

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Background: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is affecting both lives of millions of people and the global economy of the world day by day. This study aimed to determine the trend of COVID-19 and its predictions in Ethiopia. Study Design: This study was conducted based on a time series design. Methods: The required data were collected from the Ethiopian COVID-19 monitoring platform beginning from the onset of the disease in the country until March 28, 2021. Furthermore, the auto-regressive integrated moving average models were used on daily-based time series. The Poisson and Negative Binomial regression were also employed to notice the effects of months on the transmission and disease-related human deaths. Results: The mean daily infection and death of COVID-19 in Ethiopia were 533.47±466.62 and 7.45±6.72, respectively. The peaks of infection and deaths in this country were in March, 2021, and August, 2020. In addition, the trend of daily new deaths (P=0.000) and infection (P=0.000) was significantly increasing. It is expected that around 10 million (8.6%) and 138,084.64 (0.12%) Ethiopians will be infected and die, respectively. Conclusions: The disease transmission and deaths vary from day to day and month to month. The highest peaks of COVID-19 infection and death were in March 2021 and August 2020. For the next end of August 2021, the COVID-19 daily new infection, new death, total case, and total death are expected to be increased. If this epidemic disease is not controlled, Ethiopia will face a severe shortage of hospitals, and the outbreak even becomes worse.
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Zarghami, Mehran, Omid Kharazmi, Abbas Alipour, Masoudeh Babakhanian, Ardeshr Khosravi und Seyyed Davood Mirtorabi. „Time Series Modeling and Forecasting of Drug-Related Deaths in Iran (2014-2016)“. Addiction and Health 15, Nr. 3 (29.07.2023): 149–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.34172/ahj.2023.1277.

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Background: Investigating the temporal variations and forecasting the trends in drug-related deaths can help prevent health problems and develop intervention programs. The recent policy in Iran is strongly focused on deterring drug use and replacing illicit drugs with legal ones. This study aimed to investigate drug-related deaths in Iran in 2014-2016 and forecast the death toll by 2019. Methods: In this longitudinal study, Box-Jenkins time series analysis was used to forecast drug-related deaths. To this end, monthly counts of drug-related deaths were obtained from March 2014 to March 2017. After data processing, to obtain stationary time series and examine the stability assumption with the Dickey-Fuller test, the parameters of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model were determined using autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) graphs. Based on Akaike statistics, ARIMA (0, 1, 1) was selected as the best-fit model. Moreover, the Dickey-Fuller test was used to confirm the stationarity of the time series of transformed observations. The forecasts were made for the next 36 months using the ARIMA (0,1,2) model and the same confidence intervals were applied to all months. The final extracted data were analyzed using R software, Minitab, and SPSS-23. Findings: According to the Iranian Ministry of Health and the Legal Medicine Organization, there were 8883 drug-related deaths in Iran from March 2014 to March 2017. According to the time series findings, this count had an upward trend and did not show any seasonal pattern. It was forecasted that the mean drug-related mortality rate in Iran would be 245.8 cases per month until 2019. Conclusion: This study showed a rising trend in drug-related mortality rates during the study period, and the modeling process for forecasting suggested this trend would continue until 2019 if proper interventions were not instituted.
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Wan Ahmad, Wan Muhammad Amir bin, Noor Azlinaliana Ibrahim, Mohamad Arif Awang Nawi, Nor Farid Mohd Noor, Noraini Mohamad, Nor Azlida Aleng, Farah Muna Mohamad Ghazali und Nasar Um Min Allah. „Malaysian and Italian trend line for Covid-19: A study on trend analysis“. Bulletin of Applied Mathematics and Mathematics Education 1, Nr. 2 (10.12.2021): 61–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.12928/bamme.v1i2.3954.

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The first objective of this study was to evaluate trend line pattern, obtain the appropriate statistical equation model, and predict individual numbers infected by Covid-19. The second objective is to obtain a predictive equation model and forecast death rate for Malaysia and Italy. Malaysia's first positive case Covid-19 recorded January 24, 2020, consisting of three cases. Collected from January 24 to March 29, 2020. Sixty-six day-observations, based on their trend line pattern, earned special attention. Although the first positive case was identified on January 31, 2020, involving two patients. From January 31 to March 29, 2020, approximately 59 observations were collected from Italy. On 18 March 2020, the pattern will contrast with the Malaysian Movement Control Order (MCO). Malaysia and Italy collect death figures. A similar methodology will be applied to find the best-fitted model that fits both countries' death-number scenario. In Italy, the number of Covid-19-infected patients rises and meets quadratic trend line patterns. This induces extreme public distress and diversion. The quadratic trend line series analysed individual Covid-19-infected results. After March 18, 2020, it will continue to use a linear pattern. However, trend deaths also follow quadratic trend line pattern. Trend-line quadratic matched Italy's results. The quadratic line-of-trend model projection demonstrated dominance in estimating infected Covid-19. The quadratic death line from daily death collection data also showed superiority in estimating death number. The fitted quadratic model is better fitted in the Malaysian case, but the pattern shifts to linear trend line after MCO is implemented.
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Stow, Daniel, Robert O. Barker, Fiona E. Matthews und Barbara Hanratty. „National Early Warning Scores and COVID-19 deaths in care homes: an ecological time-series study“. BMJ Open 11, Nr. 9 (September 2021): e045579. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-045579.

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ObjectivesTo investigate whether National Early Warning Scores (NEWS/NEWS2) could contribute to COVID-19 surveillance in care homes.Setting460 care home units using the same software package to collect data on residents, from 46 local authority areas in England.Participants6464 care home residents with at least one NEWS recording.Exposure measure29 656 anonymised person-level NEWS from 29 December 2019 to 20 May 2020 with component physiological measures: systolic blood pressure, respiratory rate, pulse rate, temperature and oxygen saturation. Baseline values for each measure calculated using 80th and 20th centile scores before March 2020.Outcome measureCross-correlation comparison of time series with Office for National Statistics weekly reported registered deaths of care home residents where COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death, and all other deaths (excluding COVID-19) up to 10 May 2020.ResultsDeaths due to COVID-19 were registered from 23 March 2020 in the local authority areas represented in the study. Between 23 March 2020 and 10 May 2020, there were 5753 deaths (1532 involving COVID-19 and 4221 other causes). We observed a rise in the proportion of above-baseline NEWS beginning 16 March 2020, followed 2 weeks later by an increase in registered deaths (cross-correlation of r=0.82, p<0.05 for a 2 week lag) in corresponding local authorities. The proportion of above-baseline oxygen saturation, respiratory rate and temperature measurements also increased approximately 2 weeks before peaks in deaths.ConclusionsNEWS could contribute to COVID-19 disease surveillance in care homes during the pandemic. Oxygen saturation, respiratory rate and temperature could be prioritised as they appear to signal rise in mortality almost as well as NEWS. This study reinforces the need to collate data from care homes, to monitor and protect residents’ health. Further work using individual level outcome data is needed to evaluate the role of NEWS in the early detection of resident illness.
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Pérez-García, Carlos Nicolás, Daniel Enríquez-Vázquez, Manuel Méndez-Bailón, Carmen Olmos, Juan Carlos Gómez-Polo, Rosario Iguarán, Noemí Ramos-López et al. „The SADDEN DEATH Study: Results from a Pilot Study in Non-ICU COVID-19 Spanish Patients“. Journal of Clinical Medicine 10, Nr. 4 (18.02.2021): 825. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm10040825.

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Introduction: The worldwide pandemic, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a novel infection with serious clinical manifestations, including death. Our aim is to describe the first non-ICU Spanish deceased series with COVID-19, comparing specifically between unexpected and expected deaths. Methods: In this single-centre study, all deceased inpatients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 who had died from March 4 to April 16, 2020 were consecutively included. Demographic, clinical, treatment, and laboratory data, were analyzed and compared between groups. Factors associated with unexpected death were identified by multivariable logistic regression methods. Results: In total, 324 deceased patients were included. Median age was 82 years (IQR 76–87); 55.9% males. The most common cardiovascular risk factors were hypertension (78.4%), hyperlipidemia (57.7%), and diabetes (34.3%). Other common comorbidities were chronic kidney disease (40.1%), chronic pulmonary disease (30.3%), active cancer (13%), and immunosuppression (13%). The Confusion, BUN, Respiratory Rate, Systolic BP and age ≥65 (CURB-65) score at admission was >2 in 40.7% of patients. During hospitalization, 77.8% of patients received antivirals, 43.3% systemic corticosteroids, and 22.2% full anticoagulation. The rate of bacterial co-infection was 5.5%, and 105 (32.4%) patients had an increased level of troponin I. The median time from initiation of therapy to death was 5 days (IQR 3.0–8.0). In 45 patients (13.9%), the death was exclusively attributed to COVID-19, and in 254 patients (78.4%), both COVID-19 and the clinical status before admission contributed to death. Progressive respiratory failure was the most frequent cause of death (92.0%). Twenty-five patients (7.7%) had an unexpected death. Factors independently associated with unexpected death were male sex, chronic kidney disease, insulin-treated diabetes, and functional independence. Conclusions: This case series provides in-depth characterization of hospitalized non-ICU COVID-19 patients who died in Madrid. Male sex, insulin-treated diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and independency for activities of daily living are predictors of unexpected death.
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Dziobak, Marek. „#NeverAgainMSD and the March for Our Lives Movement“. Ad Americam 24 (29.11.2023): 15–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.12797/adamericam.24.2023.24.02.

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The United States gives citizens the right to own guns and has developed a specific culture of gun presence in everyday life. However, this privilege raises many controversies, and gun-related deaths are one of the most common causes of death in the U.S. Media often report on tragic shootings in the country. Nonetheless, there is still no clear regulation of legal issues in the field of gun control. This text is devoted to the issue of the March for Our Lives (MFOL) social movement created by a group of students from Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida. The movement was established in response to a shooting that occurred at the school on February 14, 2018. The massacre caused shock almost all over the United States and gave rise to a series of great demonstrations in favor of gun control, which turned into the March For Our Lives social movement. Why did this movement appeared after the events at the Parkland school, and what was its formation like? Did the term “potential tipping point” in the context of gun control and MFOL come true? What is the balance between the organizers’ assumptions and the actual results? This text analyzes the events of 2018 at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School and attempts to answer the question about the essence of the March for Our Lives movement.
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Alshanbari, Huda M., Hasnain Iftikhar, Faridoon Khan, Moeeba Rind, Zubair Ahmad und Abd Al-Aziz Hosni El-Bagoury. „On the Implementation of the Artificial Neural Network Approach for Forecasting Different Healthcare Events“. Diagnostics 13, Nr. 7 (31.03.2023): 1310. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/diagnostics13071310.

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The rising number of confirmed cases and deaths in Pakistan caused by the coronavirus have caused problems in all areas of the country, not just healthcare. For accurate policy making, it is very important to have accurate and efficient predictions of confirmed cases and death counts. In this article, we use a coronavirus dataset that includes the number of deaths, confirmed cases, and recovered cases to test an artificial neural network model and compare it to different univariate time series models. In contrast to the artificial neural network model, we consider five univariate time series models to predict confirmed cases, deaths count, and recovered cases. The considered models are applied to Pakistan’s daily records of confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered cases from 10 March 2020 to 3 July 2020. Two statistical measures are considered to assess the performances of the models. In addition, a statistical test, namely, the Diebold and Mariano test, is implemented to check the accuracy of the mean errors. The results (mean error and statistical test) show that the artificial neural network model is better suited to predict death and recovered coronavirus cases. In addition, the moving average model outperforms all other confirmed case models, while the autoregressive moving average is the second-best model.
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Hossain, Mohammad Sorowar, Jahidur Rahman Khan, S. M. Abdullah Al Mamun, Mohammad Tariqul Islam und Enayetur Raheem. „Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021) in an urban community of Bangladesh“. PLOS Global Public Health 3, Nr. 7 (14.07.2023): e0002176. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0002176.

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Measuring COVID-19-related mortality is vital for making public health policy decisions. The magnitude of COVID-19-related mortality is largely unknown in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), including Bangladesh, due to inadequate COVID-19 testing capacity and a lack of robust civil registration and vital statistics systems. Even with the lack of data, cemetery-based death records in LMICs may provide insightful information on potential COVID-19-related mortality rates; nevertheless, there is a dearth of research employing cemetery-based death records. This study aimed to assess the excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in an urban setting in Bangladesh using a cemetery-based death registration dataset. A total of 6,271 deaths recorded between January 2015 and December 2021 were analysed using a Bayesian structural time series model. Exploratory analysis found that the average monthly number of deaths was 69 during the pre-COVID-19 period (January 2015-February 2020), but significantly increased to 92 during the COVID-19 period (March 2020-December 2021). The increase in male deaths was twice as large as the increase in female deaths. Model-based results were not statistically significant (relative effect 17%, 95% credible interval: -18%, 57%), but there was an overall increasing trend during the COVID-19 period, and specific months or shorter periods had a substantial increase. This first-of-its-kind study in Bangladesh has assessed the excess mortality in an urban community during the COVID-19 pandemic. Cemetery-based death registration appears to aid in tracking population mortality, especially in resource-limited countries where collecting data on the ground is challenging during crisis periods; however, additional large-scale research is required.
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Iqbal, Javaid, Rahim Moineddin, Robert A. Fowler, Monika K. Krzyzanowska, Christopher M. Booth, James Downar, Jenny Lau et al. „Socioeconomic Status, Palliative Care, and Death at Home Among Patients With Cancer Before and During COVID-19“. JAMA Network Open 7, Nr. 2 (27.02.2024): e240503. http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.0503.

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ImportanceThe COVID-19 pandemic had a profound impact on the delivery of cancer care, but less is known about its association with place of death and delivery of specialized palliative care (SPC) and potential disparities in these outcomes.ObjectiveTo evaluate the association of the COVID-19 pandemic with death at home and SPC delivery at the end of life and to examine whether disparities in socioeconomic status exist for these outcomes.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsIn this cohort study, an interrupted time series analysis was conducted using Ontario Cancer Registry data comprising adult patients aged 18 years or older who died with cancer between the pre–COVID-19 (March 16, 2015, to March 15, 2020) and COVID-19 (March 16, 2020, to March 15, 2021) periods. The data analysis was performed between March and November 2023.ExposureCOVID-19–related hospital restrictions starting March 16, 2020.Main Outcomes and MeasuresOutcomes were death at home and SPC delivery at the end of life (last 30 days before death). Socioeconomic status was measured using Ontario Marginalization Index area-based material deprivation quintiles, with quintile 1 (Q1) indicating the least deprivation; Q3, intermediate deprivation; and Q5, the most deprivation. Segmented linear regression was used to estimate monthly trends in outcomes before, at the start of, and in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.ResultsOf 173 915 patients in the study cohort (mean [SD] age, 72.1 [12.5] years; males, 54.1% [95% CI, 53.8%-54.3%]), 83.7% (95% CI, 83.6%-83.9%) died in the pre–COVID-19 period and 16.3% (95% CI, 16.1%-16.4%) died in the COVID-19 period, 54.5% (95% CI, 54.2%-54.7%) died at home during the entire study period, and 57.8% (95% CI, 57.5%-58.0%) received SPC at the end of life. In March 2020, home deaths increased by 8.3% (95% CI, 7.4%-9.1%); however, this increase was less marked in Q5 (6.1%; 95% CI, 4.4%-7.8%) than in Q1 (11.4%; 95% CI, 9.6%-13.2%) and Q3 (10.0%; 95% CI, 9.0%-11.1%). There was a simultaneous decrease of 5.3% (95% CI, −6.3% to –4.4%) in the rate of SPC at the end of life, with no significant difference among quintiles. Patients who received SPC at the end of life (vs no SPC) were more likely to die at home before and during the pandemic. However, there was a larger immediate increase in home deaths among those who received no SPC at the end of life vs those who received SPC (Q1, 17.5% [95% CI, 15.2%-19.8%] vs 7.6% [95% CI, 5.4%-9.7%]; Q3, 12.7% [95% CI, 10.8%-14.5%] vs 9.0% [95% CI, 7.2%-10.7%]). For Q5, the increase in home deaths was significant only for patients who did not receive SPC (13.9% [95% CI, 11.9%-15.8%] vs 1.2% [95% CI, −1.0% to 3.5%]).Conclusions and RelevanceThese findings suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with amplified socioeconomic disparities in death at home and SPC delivery at the end of life. Future research should focus on the mechanisms of these disparities and on developing interventions to ensure equitable and consistent SPC access.
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Riding, James. „Landscape after genocide“. cultural geographies 27, Nr. 2 (17.10.2019): 237–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1474474019876619.

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The March of Peace (Marš mira) is a 63-mile, 3-day walk through eastern Bosnia organised in memory of the victims of the 1995 Srebrenica genocide and traces in reverse a death march. Marchers take a trail from Nezuk, stopping at mass graves found along the way, arriving at the memorial cemetery in Potočari a day prior to the annual mass funeral for victims who have been recently exhumed. This article charts the journey from the death march to the peace march and asks the reader to assess the efficacy of embodied memory-work and the ethical responsibility to undertake – and responsibilities when undertaking – alternative memory-work in post-genocide landscapes and sites of mass murder, through a series of rhetorical shifts. A number of frames are enacted to challenge other more linear and conventional approaches, allowing the sociological and political productivity of engaging with post-genocide landscapes in a post-conflict state to emerge, referencing dissident forms of remembrance through the method of walking-with others while traversing this post-genocide landscape on foot. Travelling-with around 8,000 mourners, some of whom were survivors of the death march, the aim here is not to simply describe what is taking place; rather, the journey is undertaken in order to activate a space – a space within which I might engage with issues of landscape, conflict and memory in the context of their current discussion within cultural and political geography, genocide studies and memory studies, and more importantly to speak of genocide and a post-genocide landscape.
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De Siqueira Junior, Djalma, Tassiane Cristina Morais, Isabella Portugal, Matheus Paiva Emidio Cavalcanti, Blanca Elena Guerrero Daboin, Rodrigo Daminello Raimundo, Lucas Cauê Jacintho, Jorge De Oliveira Echeimberg, Khalifa Elmusharaf und Carlos Eduardo Siqueira. „Trends in COVID-19 mortality and case-fatality rate in the State of Paraná, South Brazil: spatiotemporal analysis over one year of the Pandemic“. Journal of Human Growth and Development 31, Nr. 3 (01.12.2021): 549–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.36311/jhgd.v31.12792.

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Introduction: by late 2019, China notified a new disease rising, and with the agent’s identification, it was called COVID-19. Despite the efforts of the World Health Organization (WHO) and worldwide countries, the disease spread out of control; on March 11, WHO declared the pandemic state. Brazil is the biggest country in South America, demarcated into 26 states with different economic, cultural, and social aspects. Paraná is one of the Brazilian federative units, it is the sixth more economically important and ranks second in Education. Its first COVID-19 case was confirmed on March 12, 2020, and the first death was on March 27, two weeks after the first death in Brazil. Objective: This study objective is to determine the mortality and case-fatality rates of COVID-19 in the State of Paraná, Brazil, from March 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021. Methods: It is an ecological time-series study, using all cases (854,326) and deaths (17,229 deaths) of COVID-19 reported in public and official database of the State of Paraná Health Department. Case fatality and mortality rates were stratified by sex and age. For trend analysis, the period was divided into a first “wave” (March to November 2020) and a second “wave” (December 2020 to March 2021). The Prais-Winsten regression model for population mortality and case-fatality rates allowed classifying whether it increased, decreased, or was flat. Results: Women were more affected by the number of cases, with 454,056 cases (53.15%) confirmed and 7,257 fatalities (42.12%). A total of 400,270 men (46.85%) were infected and 9,972(57.87%) died. For the first year of COVID-19, in the State of Paraná, the incidence was calculated as 7404.12/100,000 inhabitants, the mortality was 149.32/100,000 inhabitants, and the case-fatality rate was 2.02%. We saw a tendency for decreasing the case-fatality rate (DPC = -0,18; p<0,001). The mortality and incidence showed an increasing trend (DPC=1,13, p<0,001; DPC=1,58, p<0,001, respectively). Conclusion: The level and variability of transmission during this first year of pandemic suggest that the disease in the State of Paraná was never under control.
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Mazzoleni, Lionel, Chadi Ghafari, Fabienne Mestrez, Roxana Sava, Elena Bivoleanu, Philippe Delmotte, France Laurent, Thomas Roland, Camelia Rossi und Stéphane Carlier. „COVID-19 Outbreak in a Hemodialysis Center: A Retrospective Monocentric Case Series“. Canadian Journal of Kidney Health and Disease 7 (Januar 2020): 205435812094429. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2054358120944298.

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Background: The rapid worldwide spread of COVID-19 has posed a serious threat to patients treated with kidney replacement therapy (KRT). Moreover, the impact of the disease on hemodialysis centers, the patients, and the health care workers is still not completely understood. Objective: We present the analysis of a COVID-19 outbreak in a hemodialysis center in Belgium and report the incidence, clinical course, and outcome of the disease. Design: A retrospective cross-sectional cohort study. Setting: A hemodialysis center during the COVID-19 outbreak. Patients: A total of 62 patients on maintenance hemodialysis at a tertiary care center in Belgium attended by 26 health care workers. Measurements: Baseline patients’ characteristics were retrieved. The incidence, clinical course, and outcome were reported. The differences between COVID-19 survivors and nonsurvivors were assessed along with the differences between COVID-19-hospitalized and nonhospitalized patients. The incidence of the disease and outcome of health care workers were also reported. Methods: Proportions for categorical variables were compared using the Fisher exact test and χ2. The Mann-Whitney rank sum test was used to compare continuous variables. Univariate analysis and a binomial logistic regression were used to explore variables as predictors of death. Results: Between March 6 and April 14, 2020, 40 of 62 (65%) patients tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome beta coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) along with 18 of 26 (69%) health care professionals. Twenty-five (63%) of the infected patients were hospitalized with a median time for hospitalization-to-discharge of 8 (interquartile range [IQR] = 4-12) days. Eleven (28%) COVID-19-related deaths were recorded with a median time for onset of symptoms-to-death of 9 (IQR = 5-14) days. Lymphocytopenia was prevalent among the cohort and was found in 9 of 11 (82%) reported deaths ( P = .4). There was no influence of the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers on COVID-19-related deaths ( P = .3). Advanced age, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and obstructive sleep apnea syndrome were all found to be significantly related to death. Of the 18 infected health care professionals, 13 (72%) were symptomatic and 2 (11%) were hospitalized. There was no reported death among the health care workers. Limitations: Limited follow-up time compared with the course of the disease along with a small sample size. Conclusions: Patients treated with KRT show a high mortality rate secondary to COVID-19. CVD and age are shown to impact survival. Proactive measures must be taken to prevent the spread of the virus in such facilities. Trial Registration: Not applicable as this is a retrospective study.
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Janbabaee, Ghasem, Aliasghar Nadi-Ghara, Mahdi Afshari, Majid Yaghoubi Ashrafi, Mohsen Aarabi, Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran, Reza Alizadeh-Navaei, Mohammad Eslami Jouybari und Mahmood Moosazadeh. „Forecasting the incidence of breast, colorectal and bladder cancers in north of Iran using time series models; comparing Bayesian, ARIMA and Bootstrap approaches“. Asian Pacific Journal of Environment and Cancer 4, Nr. 1 (15.07.2021): 3–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.31557/apjec.2021.4.1.3-7.

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Introduction: Cancers are the second cause of death worldwide. Prevalence and incidence of cancers is getting increased by aging and population growth. This study aims to predict the incidence of breast, colorectal and bladder cancers in north of Iran until 2020 using time series models. Methods: The number of breast, colorectal and bladder cancer cases from April 2014 to March 2016 was extracted. The time variable was each month of the study years and using the number of daily registered cancers in each month, the time series of the monthly incident cases was designed. Then, three methods of time series analysis including Box Jenkins, Bayesian and Bootstrap were applied for predicting the incidence of the above cancers until March 2020. Results: The number of bladder cancer cases in March 2014 was 6 cases. This study showed that the number of breast cancer cases in March 2020 will be increased to 15, 15 and 26 cases based on ARIMA, Bootstrap and Bayesian methods respectively. In addition, the incident cases of breast cancer, will be increased from 32 in 2014 to 65 (ARIMA method), 47(Bootstrap method) and 364 (Bayesian method). The corresponding figure for colorectal cancer was 30, 30 and 95 respectively. Conclusion: The increasing trend of breast, bladder and colorectal cancers will be continued which is considerable based on the Bayesian method results. Considering the limited reliable data used in a short time, it seems that the forecasting results of this model is acceptable.
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Dobes Kawatake de Sousa, Claudia, Tassiane Cristina Morais, Blanca Elena Guerrero Daboin, Isabella Portugal, Matheus Paiva Emidio Cavalcanti, Jorge de Oliveira Echeimberg, Lucas Cauê Jacintho, Rodrigo Daminello Raimundo, Khalifa Elmusharaf und Carlos Eduardo Siqueira. „Epidemiological profile of covid-19 in the state of espírito santo, brazil, from march 2020 to june 2021“. Journal of Human Growth and Development 31, Nr. 3 (01.12.2021): 507–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.36311/jhgd.v31.12770.

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Introduction: coronavirus 2019 Disease (COVID-19) was quickly declared a pandemic, and Brazil is facing the most significant health and hospital crisis in its history. From March to June 2021 represented 50.8% of all deaths in the State of Espirito Santo. Objective: to analyze the lethality and mortality by COVID-19 in the State of Espirito Santo from March 2020 to June 2021. Methods: an ecological study was carried out, using a time series of public and official data available on the Health Department of the State of Espirito Santo, Brazil. Were considered information about cases and deaths (from March 2020 to June 2021) of COVID-19. Percentage case-fatality and mortality and incidence rates per 100,000 population were calculated. Time-series analyses were performed using the Prais-Winsten regression model, estimating the Daily Percent Change (DPC), and the trends were classified as flat, increasing, or decreasing. Significant differences were considered when p<0.05. Results: 524,496 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of June 30, 2021, and 11,516 progressed to death. The presence of cardiovascular diseases represents more than half of confirmed comorbidities (54.37%) in patients with COVID-19, followed by diabetes (19.95%) and obesity (9.34%). Men had higher mortality and lethality, especially in older age groups, but the incidence was higher among women. A characteristic profile of two waves was observed; the first wave was extended from March to October 2020 and the second complete wave from November 2020 to June 2021. During the second wave, high peaks of incidence, lethality, and mortality were recorded. At the end of the second wave, the incidence rate remained with increasing trends (p < 0.05), with a DPC of 2.06%. Conclusion: the peak concentration of cases, deaths, and indicators of lethality, mortality evidenced even after one year of pandemic, characterizes the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic, still in entire evolution in the State Espirito Santo and Brazil.
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Lazić, Katarina. „LIKOVI IZ „GOLOG ŽIVOTA““. Nasledje Kragujevac XIX, Nr. 51 (2022): 421–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.46793/naskg2251.421l.

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The topic of this work will primarily be the characters from the documentary film Bare existence directed by Aleksandar Mandić. The scenario for the film was written by Danilo Kiš himself. It was filmed in March 1989. in Israel. For the first and only time, Danilo Kiš appears in front of the camera in the role of a television narrator who represents the destinies of two Jews, Jovanka Ženi Lebl and Eva Nahir Panić, seven months before his death. Through their lives, the history of our region from the 1930s to the 1960s, poverty, communism, war, the State Security Service (UDBA), emigration, etc. are narrated in an exciting way. The series Bare existence was premiered in February 1990., six months after Kiš’s death, as the last tel- evision program that all citizens of the former Yugoslavia could watch together. The series consists of four episodes.
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Ghozi, Akhdan Aziz, Ayu Aprianti, Ahmad Dzaki Putra Dimas und Rifky Fauzi. „Analisis Prediksi Data Kasus Covid-19 di Provinsi Lampung Menggunakan Recurrent Neural Network (RNN)“. Indonesian Journal of Applied Mathematics 2, Nr. 1 (15.04.2022): 25. http://dx.doi.org/10.35472/indojam.v2i1.763.

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This study aims to examine the architectural performance of the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) model in predicting Covid-19 cases in Lampung Province. The RNN method is part of Deep Learning which will be used to model data on Covid-19 cases in Lampung Province from March 26, 2020 to March 28, 2021. The RNN model was chosen because the Covid-19 data is in the form of a time series and the advantages of RNN are that it can capture information on the data time series using multiple network layers which allow better modeling and resulting in high prediction accuracy. The data is divided into 3, namely active cases, recovered cases, and dead cases. After preparing the data, the 368 data were divided into 294 initial latih data and 74 test data. After latih on the data for each data, then a test is carried out on the data for each data as a reference for predicting the latest data. The most optimal results show the cumulative active case model with RMSE=0.0022; for cumulative recovery cases obtained RMSE = 0.0007; while the cumulative death cases obtained RMSE = 0.0012. Based on the modeling error, then make predictions on the three cases which results in RMSE = 0.001 for cumulative active cases; RMSE=0.0027 for cumulative recovery cases; and RMSE=0.001 for cumulative death cases.
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Kishanrao, Domple Vijay, und Satish Kishanrao Wadde. „Trends of admission and deaths of burn patients (2000 to 2016) in a tertiary care hospital of Maharashtra: a time series analysis“. International Journal Of Community Medicine And Public Health 6, Nr. 11 (24.10.2019): 4972. http://dx.doi.org/10.18203/2394-6040.ijcmph20195090.

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Background: The World Health Organization projects that by 2020, injuries will surpass infectious diseases as the leading cause of death worldwide. Therefore we conducted the present study with objective to identify trends of admissions and deaths of burn patients and to forecast the number of cases of admission and deaths in a tertiary care hospital, Maharashtra by using time series analysis.Methods: The present retrospective study was conducted at a tertiary care hospital of Maharashtra in the month of September 2017. Month wise admissions (7674 patients) and deaths (2865) of burn patients in last seventeen years (2000 to 2016) were used for this purpose. Data was analyzed by using SPSS version 16.Results: There was increasing trend of admissions of burn patients in December to January. Increase in the deaths was also observed in the months of February and March by simple seasonal model of Expert Modeler in SPPS. This predicted 30-44 admissions and 9-13 deaths of burn patients in the year of 2019.Conclusions: The trends and forecasting of admissions and deaths of burn patients will be useful for hospital administrators for management of cases.
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Rasul, Parween Muhammad, und Kawes Omar Hamad Zangana. „The presentation and outcome of pneumonia in neonates: a case series study“. Advanced Medical Journal 6, Nr. 1 (01.06.2020): 53–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.56056/amj.2020.119.

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Background and objectives: Pneumonia is defined as inflammation of the lung parenchyma. The aim of this study is to identify types of neonatal pneumonia (congenital or acquired), presentations and outcome. Methods: This study is a case series study done in the neonatal care unit of both Rapareen Teaching Hospital and Maternity Teaching Hospital in Erbil City from August 2018 to March 2019. Fifty cases were enrolled, including preterm, term and post-term neonates who were diagnosed as pneumonia. Majority of cases were treated with empirical antibiotics (ampicillin plus cefotaxime or ampicillin plus gentamycine), and we followed them till discharge in order to know the outcome of them (alive or dead). Results: Fifty neonates with neonatal pneumonia were included in this study. Their mean age + SD were 13 + 6.76 days, ranging from 2 to 29 days, the majority of neonates (74%) were males and 80% were acquired pneumonia. Among admitted neonates, 70% presented with respiratory distress. Death rate was higher in late-onset pneumonia. Conclusions: We confirmed that acquired pneumonia, is more prevalent than congenital pneumonia, most of them presented by respiratory distress. The death rate was more in male neonates, premature, low birth weight neonates and among neonates who presented with apnea.
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Marazzi, Mario, Boriana Miloucheva und Gustavo J. Bobonis. „Mortality of Puerto Ricans in the USA post Hurricane Maria: an interrupted time series analysis“. BMJ Open 12, Nr. 8 (August 2022): e058315. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2021-058315.

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ObjectivesTo determine death occurrences of Puerto Ricans on the mainland USA following the arrival of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico in September 2017.DesignCross-sectional study.ParticipantsPersons of Puerto Rican origin on the mainland USA.ExposuresHurricane Maria.Main outcomeWe use an interrupted time series design to analyse all-cause mortality of Puerto Ricans in the USA following the hurricane. Hispanic origin data from the National Vital Statistics System and from the Public Use Microdata Sample of the American Community Survey are used to estimate monthly origin-specific mortality rates for the period 2012–2018. We estimated log-linear regressions of monthly deaths of persons of Puerto Rican origin by age group, gender, and educational attainment.ResultsWe found an increase in mortality for persons of Puerto Rican origin during the 6-month period following the hurricane (October 2017 through March 2018), suggesting that deaths among these persons were 3.7% (95% CI 0.025 to 0.049) higher than would have otherwise been expected. In absolute terms, we estimated 514 excess deaths (95% CI 346 to 681) of persons of Puerto Rican origin that occurred on the mainland USA, concentrated in those aged 65 years or older.ConclusionsOur findings suggest an undercounting of previous deaths as a result of the hurricane due to the systematic effects on the displaced and resident populations in the mainland USA. Displaced populations are frequently overlooked in disaster relief and subsequent research. Ignoring these populations provides an incomplete understanding of the damages and loss of life.
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Rodea-Montero, Edel Rafael, Rodolfo Guardado-Mendoza, Brenda Jesús Rodríguez-Alcántar, Jesús Rubén Rodríguez-Nuñez, Carlos Alberto Núñez-Colín und Lina Sofía Palacio-Mejía. „Trends, structural changes, and assessment of time series models for forecasting hospital discharge due to death at a Mexican tertiary care hospital“. PLOS ONE 16, Nr. 3 (08.03.2021): e0248277. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248277.

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Background Data on hospital discharges can be used as a valuable instrument for hospital planning and management. The quantification of deaths can be considered a measure of the effectiveness of hospital intervention, and a high percentage of hospital discharges due to death can be associated with deficiencies in the quality of hospital care. Objective To determine the overall percentage of hospital discharges due to death in a Mexican tertiary care hospital from its opening, to describe the characteristics of the time series generated from the monthly percentage of hospital discharges due to death and to make and evaluate predictions. Methods This was a retrospective study involving the medical records of 81,083 patients who were discharged from a tertiary care hospital from April 2007 to December 2019 (first 153 months of operation). The records of the first 129 months (April 2007 to December 2017) were used for the analysis and construction of the models (training dataset). In addition, the records of the last 24 months (January 2018 to December 2019) were used to evaluate the predictions made (test dataset). Structural change was identified (Chow test), ARIMA models were adjusted, predictions were estimated with and without considering the structural change, and predictions were evaluated using error indices (MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and MASE). Results The total percentage of discharges due to death was 3.41%. A structural change was observed in the time series (March 2009, p>0.001), and ARIMA(0,0,0)(1,1,2)12 with drift models were adjusted with and without consideration of the structural change. The error metrics favored the model that did not consider the structural change (MAE = 0.63, RMSE = 0.81, MAPE = 25.89%, and MASE = 0.65). Conclusion Our study suggests that the ARIMA models are an adequate tool for future monitoring of the monthly percentage of hospital discharges due to death, allowing us to detect observations that depart from the described trend and identify future structural changes.
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MUNTELE, Ionel. „SPATIAL PATTERNS AND DRIVERS IN THE EVOLUTION OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN ROMANIA (MARCH 2020-JUNE 2021)“. Analele Universităţii din Oradea, Seria Geografie 32, Nr. 1 (30.06.2022): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.30892/auog.321101-875.

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The manifestation of the Covid-19 pandemic raised great interest due to the speed with which it spread globally and by outlining specific diffusion patterns. Romania faced off early on the rise in the number of infections, initially, as in other European countries, extremely localized but later expanded nationwide. The analysis of the available information regarding the evolution of the number of infections and deaths caused, over a sufficiently extended period (March 2020-June 2021) allowed the identification of several spatial patterns. Their regional coherence indicates a series of correlations with socio-economic factors, validated by PCA (principal component analysis). The importance of economic development, in connection with the degree of urbanization, employment and labour mobility or population density thus explains the incidence of the number of cases at a level higher than the national average. In the case of death caused by Covid-19, the quality of the health infrastructure played an important role, the counties with a higher level of endowment being less affected. At the same time, the share of the elderly population, in association with the less populated rural area, was not positively correlated with the number of cases or deaths. Lower population interaction, weaker exposure to international mobility has created the premises for a specific pattern of evolution in these areas.
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Manthey, Jakob, Domantas Jasilionis, Huan Jiang, Olga Meščeriakova-Veliulienė, Janina Petkevičienė, Ričardas Radišauskas, Jürgen Rehm und Mindaugas Štelemėkas. „Interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of alcohol control policy on socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Lithuania: a study protocol“. BMJ Open 11, Nr. 12 (Dezember 2021): e053497. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2021-053497.

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IntroductionAlcohol use is a major risk factor for mortality. Previous studies suggest that the alcohol-attributable mortality burden is higher in lower socioeconomic strata. This project will test the hypothesis that the 2017 increase of alcohol excise taxes linked to lower all-cause mortality rates in previous analyses will reduce socioeconomic mortality inequalities.Methods and analysisData on all causes of deaths will be obtained from Statistics Lithuania. Record linkage will be implemented using personal identifiers combining data from (1) the 2011 whole-population census, (2) death records between 1 March 2011 (census date) and 31 December 2019, and (3) emigration records, for individuals aged 40–70 years. The analyses will be performed separately for all-cause and for alcohol-attributable deaths. Monthly age-standardised mortality rates will be calculated by sex, education and three measures of socioeconomic status (SES). Inequalities in mortality will be assessed using absolute and relative indicators between low and high SES groups. We will perform interrupted time series analyses, and test the impact of the 2017 rise in alcohol excise taxation using generalised additive mixed models. In these models, we will control for secular trends for economic development.Ethics and disseminationThis work is part of project grant 1R01AA028224-01 by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. It has been granted research ethics approval 050/2020 by Centre for Addiction and Mental Health Research Ethics Board on 17 April 2020, renewed on 30 March 2021. The time series of mortality inequalities as well as the statistical code will be made publicly available, allowing other researchers to adapt the proposed method to other jurisdictions.
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Rossom, R., R. Penfold, A. Owen-Smith, G. Simon und B. Ahmedani. „Suicide Deaths Before and During the COVID 19 Pandemic“. European Psychiatry 66, S1 (März 2023): S88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1192/j.eurpsy.2023.267.

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IntroductionWith stressors that are often associated with suicide increasing during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there has been concern that suicide mortality rates may also be increasing. Our objective was to determine whether suicide mortality rates increased during the COVID-19 pandemic.With stressors that are often associated with suicideincreasing during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic,there has been concern that suicide mortality rates may alsobe increasing.ObjectivesOur objective was to determine whether suicidemortality rates increased during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsWe conducted an interrupted time-series study using data from January 2019 through December 2020 from 2 large integrated health care systems. The population at risk included all patients or individuals enrolled in a health plan at HealthPartners in Minnesota or Henry Ford Health in Michigan. The primary outcome was change in suicide mortality rates, expressed as annualized crude rates of suicide death per 100,000 people in 10 months following the start of the pandemic in March 2020 compared with the 14 months prior. We conducted an interrupted time-series study using data fromJanuary 2019 through December 2020 from 2 large integrated health care systems. The population at risk included all patients or individuals enrolledin a health plan at HealthPartners in Minnesota or Henry Ford HealthSystem in Michigan. The primary outcome was change in suicide mortality rates, expressed as annualized crude rates of suicide death per 100,000 people in 10 months following the start of the pandemic in March2020 compared with the 14 months prior.ResultsThere were 6,434,675 people at risk in the sample, with 55% women and a diverse sample across ages, race/ethnicity, and insurance type. From January 2019 through February 2020, there was a slow increase in the suicide mortality rate, with rates then decreasing by 0.45 per 100,000 people per month from March 2020 through December 2020 (SE= 0.19, P=0.03). There were 6,434,675 people at risk in the sample, with 55% women and a diverse sample across ages, race/ethnicity, and insurance type. From January 2019 through February 2020, there was a slow increase in the suicide mortality rate, with rates then decreasing by 0.45 per 100,000 people per month from March 2020 through December 2020 (SE= 0.19, P=0.03).ConclusionsOverall suicide mortality rates did not increase with the pandemic, and in fact slightly declined from March to December 2020. Our findings should be confirmed across other settings and, when available, using final adjudicated state mortality data. Overall suicide mortality rates did not increase with the pandemic, and in fact slightly declined from March to December 2020. Our findings should be confirmed across other settings and,when available, using final adjudicated state mortality data.Disclosure of InterestNone Declared
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Strongman, Helen, Helena Carreira, Bianca L. De Stavola, Krishnan Bhaskaran und David A. Leon. „Factors associated with excess all-cause mortality in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK: A time series analysis using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink“. PLOS Medicine 19, Nr. 1 (06.01.2022): e1003870. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003870.

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Background Excess mortality captures the total effect of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on mortality and is not affected by misspecification of cause of death. We aimed to describe how health and demographic factors were associated with excess mortality during, compared to before, the pandemic. Methods and findings We analysed a time series dataset including 9,635,613 adults (≥40 years old) registered at United Kingdom general practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We extracted weekly numbers of deaths and numbers at risk between March 2015 and July 2020, stratified by individual-level factors. Excess mortality during Wave 1 of the UK pandemic (5 March to 27 May 2020) compared to the prepandemic period was estimated using seasonally adjusted negative binomial regression models. Relative rates (RRs) of death for a range of factors were estimated before and during Wave 1 by including interaction terms. We found that all-cause mortality increased by 43% (95% CI 40% to 47%) during Wave 1 compared with prepandemic. Changes to the RR of death associated with most sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were small during Wave 1 compared with prepandemic. However, the mortality RR associated with dementia markedly increased (RR for dementia versus no dementia prepandemic: 3.5, 95% CI 3.4 to 3.5; RR during Wave 1: 5.1, 4.9 to 5.3); a similar pattern was seen for learning disabilities (RR prepandemic: 3.6, 3.4 to 3.5; during Wave 1: 4.8, 4.4 to 5.3), for black or South Asian ethnicity compared to white, and for London compared to other regions. Relative risks for morbidities were stable in multiple sensitivity analyses. However, a limitation of the study is that we cannot assume that the risks observed during Wave 1 would apply to other waves due to changes in population behaviour, virus transmission, and risk perception. Conclusions The first wave of the UK COVID-19 pandemic appeared to amplify baseline mortality risk to approximately the same relative degree for most population subgroups. However, disproportionate increases in mortality were seen for those with dementia, learning disabilities, non-white ethnicity, or living in London.
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Keresztesi, Arthur-Atilla, Filip Perde, Andreea Ghita-Nanu, Carmen-Corina Radu, Mihai Negrea und Gabriela Keresztesi. „Post-Mortem Diagnosis and Autopsy Findings in SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Forensic Case Series“. Diagnostics 10, Nr. 12 (10.12.2020): 1070. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/diagnostics10121070.

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Towards the end of 2019, a novel coronavirus was identified as the culprit for a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China. Since then, it has rapidly spread worldwide, affecting more than 43 million people, and in March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared it a pandemic. The purpose of the study is to present the findings of 15 forensic autopsies performed in Romania, on SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) positive subjects, and to present the case of one SARS-CoV-2 infected patient who experienced a violent death, as established during their autopsy. A total of 11 male and 4 female patients were autopsied, and SARS-CoV-2 infection was diagnosed post-mortem in two cases. The most frequent symptoms before death were dry cough, dyspnoea, and fever. Hypertension, ischemic cardiac disease, and a history of stroke were the most frequent associated diseases. The mean duration from the symptoms’ debut to a RT-PCR positive SARS-CoV-2 test was 3.7 days, while the mean survival time from the RT-PCR positive test was 4.2 days. A histological examination was performed in seven cases and revealed, in most of them, hyaline membranes, and mixed inflammatory cell infiltration of the interstitium, alveoli, and perivascular areas. In addition, all of the examined cases developed small vessel thrombosis. A case of violent death was also reported, regarding a 87-year-old male subject who suffered a femur fracture (domestic fall) and was diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection the following day after surgery. After transfer to a COVID-19 (coronavirus disease-19) support hospital, during an episode of behavioral disorder, the patient jumped from the first floor window. Death occurred a few days later, and the cause was established as bronchopneumonia superimposed on SARS-CoV-2 infection. In conclusion, autopsies should be conducted while providing a safe environment for professionals to perform them, because they are crucial procedures that can help gain a better understanding of the role of SARS-CoV-2 infection in thanatogenesis.
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Moshammer, Hanns, Michael Poteser und Hans-Peter Hutter. „COVID-19 and air pollution in Vienna—a time series approach“. Wiener klinische Wochenschrift 133, Nr. 17-18 (06.05.2021): 951–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00508-021-01881-4.

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SummaryWe performed a time series analysis in Vienna, Austria, investigating the temporal association between daily air pollution (nitrogen dioxide, NO2 and particulate matter smaller than 10 µm, PM10) concentration and risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection and death. Data covering about 2 months (March–April 2020) were retrieved from public databases. Infection risk was defined as the ratio between infected and infectious. In a separate sensitivity analysis different models were applied to estimate the number of infectious people per day. The impact of air pollution was assessed through a linear regression on the natural logarithm of infection risk. Risk of COVID-19 mortality was estimated by Poisson regression. Both pollutants were positively correlated with the risk of infection with the coefficient for NO2 being 0.032 and for PM10 0.014. That association was significant for the irritant gas (p = 0.012) but not for particles (p = 0.22). Pollutants did not affect COVID-19-related mortality. The study findings might have wider implications on an interaction between air pollution and infectious agents.
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Laing, Rachel, und Christl A. Donnelly. „Evolution of an epidemic: Understanding the opioid epidemic in the United States and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on opioid-related mortality“. PLOS ONE 19, Nr. 7 (09.07.2024): e0306395. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0306395.

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We conduct this research with a two-fold aim: providing a quantitative analysis of the opioid epidemic in the United States (U.S.), and exploring the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on opioid-related mortality. The duration and persistence of the opioid epidemic lends itself to the need for an overarching analysis with extensive scope. Additionally, studying the ramifications of these concurrent severe public health crises is vital for informing policies to avoid preventable mortality. Using data from CDC WONDER, we consider opioid-related deaths grouped by Census Region spanning January 1999 to October 2022 inclusive, and later add on a demographic component with gender-stratification. Through the lens of key events in the opioid epidemic, we build an interrupted time series model to reveal statistically significant drivers of opioid-related mortality. We then employ a counterfactual to approximate trends in the absence of COVID-19, and estimate excess opioid-related deaths (defined as observed opioid-related deaths minus projected opioid-related deaths) associated with the pandemic. According to our model, the proliferation of fentanyl contributed to sustained increases in opioid-related death rates across three of the four U.S. census regions, corroborating existing knowledge in the field. Critically, each region has an immediate increase to its opioid-related monthly death rate of at least 0.31 deaths per 100,000 persons at the start of the pandemic, highlighting the nationwide knock-on effects of COVID-19. There are consistent positive deviations from the expected monthly opioid-related death rate and a sizable burden from cumulative excess opioid-related deaths, surpassing 60,000 additional deaths nationally from March 2020 to October 2022, ∼70% of which were male. These results suggest that robust, multi-faceted measures are even more important in light of the COVID-19 pandemic to prevent overdoses and educate users on the risks associated with potent synthetic opioids such as fentanyl.
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Alghazzawi, Daniyal, Atika Qazi, Javaria Qazi, Khulla Naseer, Muhammad Zeeshan, Mohamed Elhag Mohamed Abo, Najmul Hasan et al. „Prediction of the Infectious Outbreak COVID-19 and Prevalence of Anxiety: Global Evidence“. Sustainability 13, Nr. 20 (14.10.2021): 11339. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su132011339.

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Forecasting disease outbreaks in real-time using time-series data can help for the planning of public health interventions. We used a support vector machine (SVM) model using epidemiological data provided by Johns Hopkins University Centre for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CCSE), World Health Organization (WHO), and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to predict upcoming records before the WHO made an official declaration. Our study, conducted on the time series data available from 22 January till 10 March 2020, revealed that COVID-19 was spreading at an alarming rate and progressing towards a pandemic. The initial insight that confirmed COVID-19 cases were increasing was because these received the highest number of effects for our selected dataset from 22 January to 10 March 2020, i.e., 126,344 (64%). The recovered cases were 68289 (34%), and the death rate was around 2%. Moreover, we classified the tweets from 22 January to 15 April 2020 into positive and negative sentiments to identify the emotions (stress or relaxed) posted by Twitter users related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis identified that tweets mostly conveyed a negative sentiment with a high frequency of words for #coronavirus and #lockdown amid COVID-19. However, these anxiety tweets are an alarm for healthcare authorities to devise plans accordingly.
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Zimmermann, Ivan Ricardo, Mauro Niskier Sanchez, Gustavo Saraiva Frio, Layana Costa Alves, Claudia Cristina de Aguiar Pereira, Rodrigo Tobias de Sousa Lima, Carla Machado, Leonor Maria Pacheco Santos und Everton Nunes da Silva. „Trends in COVID-19 case-fatality rates in Brazilian public hospitals: A longitudinal cohort of 398,063 hospital admissions from 1st March to 3rd October 2020“. PLOS ONE 16, Nr. 7 (16.07.2021): e0254633. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0254633.

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Background Almost 200,000 deaths from COVID-19 were reported in Brazil in 2020. The case fatality rate of a new infectious disease can vary by different risk factors and over time. We analysed the trends and associated factors of COVID-19 case fatality rates in Brazilian public hospital admissions during the first wave of the pandemic. Methods A retrospective cohort of all COVID-19-related admissions between epidemiological weeks 10–40 in the Brazilian Public Health System (SUS) was delimited from available reimbursement records. Smoothing time series and survival analyses were conducted to evaluate the trends of hospital case fatality rates (CFR) and the probability of death according to factors such as sex, age, ethnicity, comorbidities, length of stay and ICU use. Results With 398,063 admissions and 86,452 (21.7%) deaths, the overall age-standardized hospital CFR trend decreased throughout the period, varying from 31.8% (95%CI: 31.2 to 32.5%) in week 10 to 18.2% (95%CI: 17.6 to 18.8%) in week 40. This decreasing trend was observed in all sex, age, ethnic groups, length of stay and ICU admissions. Consistently, later admission (from July to September) was an independent protective factor. Patients 80+ year old had a hazard ratio of 8.18 (95% CI: 7.51 to 8.91). Ethnicity, comorbidities, and ICU need were also associated with the death risk. Although also decreasing, the CFR was always around 40–50% in people who needed an ICU admission. Conclusions The overall hospital CFR of COVID-19 has decreased in Brazilian public hospitals during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020. Nevertheless, during the entire period, the CFR was still very high, suggesting the need for improving COVID-19 hospital care in Brazil.
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Jacobs, T., E. Morden, M. Smith, A. von Delft, R. Kassanjee, V. Mudaly, A. Boulle und M.-A. Davies. „Severe outcomes among adults with TB during COVID-19“. IJTLD OPEN 1, Nr. 7 (01.07.2024): 292–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.5588/ijtldopen.24.0220.

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<sec><title>BACKGROUND</title>The COVID-19 pandemic prompted strict public health measures to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission, potentially interrupting TB programmes in the Western Cape, South Africa.</sec><sec><title>METHODS</title>We conducted a retrospective cohort study, estimating changes in new TB case rates and risk of death during TB-specific admissions within 6 months of TB first evidence, during the pre-pandemic (1 January 2019–26 March 2020) and after the implementation of public health and social measures (PHSM) periods (26 March 2020–30 September 2021), based on PHSM strictness. We used interrupted time series and logistic regression models to adjust for key characteristics.</sec><sec><title>RESULTS</title>We found an average 22% reduction (95% CI 19–25) in monthly TB cases during the entire PHSM implementation period. Additionally, the risk of death during TB-specific admissions increased, with the adjusted odds ratio ranging across PHSM levels from 1.36 (95% CI 1.17–1.57) on Level 1 to 1.44 (95% CI 1.16–1.79) on Level 2 compared with the pre-pandemic period.</sec><sec><title>CONCLUSIONS</title>There was a decline in the number of diagnosed TB cases and an increased risk of severe outcomes from 26 March 2020 to 30 September 2021 in the Western Cape. TB programme recovery strategies must be prioritised, and TB management programmes must be integrated into future pandemic responses.</sec>
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Sadegh Rezai, Mohammad, Fereshteh Rostami-Maskopaee, Mohammad Reza Navaeifar, Azin Hajialibeig, Maedeh Gooran, Behzad Haghighi Ask, Ali Manafi Anari, Eslam Shorafa und Seyedeh Narjes Abootalebi. „Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome Mortality Following COVID-19 in Iranian Children: A Case Series and Literature Review“. Journal of Pediatrics Review 11, Nr. 3 (01.07.2023): 231–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.32598/jpr.11.3.1109.1.

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Background: Children generally are less contaminated by COVID-19 than other age groups, but multisystem inflammatory syndrome-children (MIS-C) can cause severe outcomes in some children. The information about MIS-C patient mortality is limited, and the cause of mortality may vary by geographical region. Therefore, we performed this case series study to report the clinical features and treatment of MIS-C patients associated with COVID-19 who died in selected referral hospitals in Iran. Case Presentation: We presented 9 cases of deceased MIS-C patients hospitalized from March 2020 to September 2021. The median age of deceased patients was 89 months (interquartile range: 8-162 mo). Five patients (55%) were male. The COVID-19 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or serology test was positive in 7 children (77%). About 80% of the patients had comorbidities, most commonly obesity. All the patients were febrile at admission, and 77.78% had a fever for over 5 days. Respiratory, cardiac, and gastrointestinal signs were the most common. On admission, 6 patients were transferred to the pediatric intensive care unit. All patients received intravenous immunoglobulin and steroids. Conclusions: The most common organ failure was lung, heart, liver, and kidney, but the main cause of death was cardiopulmonary failure. Early diagnosis and management of MIS-C are necessary to prevent severe complications and death.
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Capoccia, Laura, Wassim Mansour, Luca di Marzo, Sabrina Grimaldi und Alessia Di Girolamo. „Symptomatic Popliteal Artery Aneurysms in Recently SARS-CoV-2-Infected Patients: The Microangiopathic Thrombosis That Undermines Treatment“. Diagnostics 13, Nr. 4 (09.02.2023): 647. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/diagnostics13040647.

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Background: Arterial and venous thrombosis are complications in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients. The microangiopathic thrombosis in affected patients can compromise results in urgent limb revascularizations. Aim of our study is to report on the incidence of symptoms development in patients affected by popliteal artery aneurysm (PAA) and to analyze the effect of COVID-19 infection on outcomes. Methods: Data on patients surgically treated for PAA from the massive widespread of COVID-19 vaccine (March 2021) to March 2022 were prospectively collected. Factors considered for analysis were: presence of symptoms, aneurysm diameter and length, time from symptom onset and hospital referral, ongoing or recently COVID-19 infection. Outcomes measures were: death, amputation, and neurological deficit. Results: Between March 2021 and March 2022, 35 patients were surgically treated for PAA. Among them 15 referred to our hospital for symptomatic PAA and were urgently treated. Urgent treatments included both endovascular procedures and open surgeries. Nine out of 15 symptomatic patients had an ongoing or recently recovered COVID-19 infection. COVID-19 infection was strongly associated to symptoms development in patients affected by PAA and to surgical failure in those patients (OR 40, 95% CI 2.01–794.31, p = 0.005). Conclusion: In our series, presence of COVID-19 infection was strongly associated to ischemic symptoms onset and to complications after urgent treatment in symptomatic patients.
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Flexon, Jamie L., Lisa Stolzenberg und Stewart J. D’Alessio. „Cheating the Hangman“. Crime & Delinquency 57, Nr. 6 (31.03.2009): 928–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0011128709333726.

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On March 1, 2005, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the execution of offenders under the age of 18 at the time of their criminal offense was unconstitutional. Although many welcomed this decision, some individuals still remain concerned that the elimination of the specter of capital punishment will inevitably increase homicidal behavior among juveniles by reducing the prospect of deterrence. Using monthly data from the Supplemental Homicide Reports and a multiple time-series research design, the authors investigate the impact of the Roper v. Simmons decision on homicides perpetrated by juveniles in the 20 states affected by the law. Maximum likelihood results reveal that the repeal of the juvenile death penalty has had no effect on juvenile homicidal behavior.
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Conti, Sara, Pietro Ferrara, Giampiero Mazzaglia, Marco I. D'Orso, Roberta Ciampichini, Carla Fornari, Fabiana Madotto et al. „Magnitude and time-course of excess mortality during COVID-19 outbreak: population-based empirical evidence from highly impacted provinces in northern Italy“. ERJ Open Research 6, Nr. 3 (Juli 2020): 00458–2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1183/23120541.00458-2020.

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BackgroundThe real impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on overall mortality remains uncertain as surveillance reports have attributed a limited number of deaths to novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during the outbreak. The aim of this study was to assess the excess mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in highly impacted areas of northern Italy.MethodsWe analysed data on deaths that occurred in the first 4 months of 2020 provided by the health protection agencies (HPAs) of Bergamo and Brescia (Lombardy), building a time-series of daily number of deaths and predicting the daily standardised mortality ratio (SMR) and cumulative number of excess deaths through a Poisson generalised additive model of the observed counts in 2020, using 2019 data as a reference.ResultsWe estimated that there were 5740 (95% credible set (CS) 5552–5936) excess deaths in the HPA of Bergamo and 3703 (95% CS 3535–3877) in Brescia, corresponding to a 2.55-fold (95% CS 2.50–2.61) and 1.93 (95% CS 1.89–1.98) increase in the number of deaths. The excess death wave started a few days later in Brescia, but the daily estimated SMR peaked at the end of March in both HPAs, roughly 2 weeks after the introduction of lockdown measures, with significantly higher estimates in Bergamo (9.4, 95% CI 9.1–9.7).ConclusionExcess mortality was significantly higher than that officially attributed to COVID-19, disclosing its hidden burden likely due to indirect effects on the health system. Time-series analyses highlighted the impact of lockdown restrictions, with a lower excess mortality in the HPA where there was a smaller delay between the epidemic outbreak and their enforcement.
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Perkin, Michael Richard, Sarah Heap, Agatha Crerar-Gilbert, Wendy Albuquerque, Serena Haywood, Zoe Avila, Richard Hartopp, Jonathan Ball, Kate Hutt und Nigel Kennea. „Deaths in people from Black, Asian and minority ethnic communities from both COVID-19 and non-COVID causes in the first weeks of the pandemic in London: a hospital case note review“. BMJ Open 10, Nr. 10 (Oktober 2020): e040638. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-040638.

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ObjectiveTo undertake a case review of deaths in a 6-week period during the COVID-19 pandemic commencing with the first death in the hospital from COVID-19 on 12th of March 2020 and contrast this with the same period in 2019.SettingA large London teaching hospital.ParticipantsThree groups were compared: group 1—COVID-19-associated deaths in the 6-week period (n=243), group 2—non-COVID deaths in the same period (n=136) and group 3—all deaths in a comparison period of the same 6 weeks in 2019 (n=194).Primary and secondary outcome measuresThis was a descriptive analysis of death case series review and as such no primary or secondary outcomes were pre-stipulated.ResultsDeaths in patients from the Black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) communities in the pandemic period significantly increased both in the COVID-19 group (OR=2.43, 95% CI=1.60–3.68, p<0.001) and the non-COVID group (OR=1.76, 95% CI=1.09–2.83, p=0.02) during this time period and the increase was independent of differences in comorbidities, sex, age or deprivation. While the absolute number of deaths increased in 2020 compared with 2019, across all three groups the distribution of deaths by age was very similar. Our analyses confirm major risk factors for COVID-19 mortality including male sex, diabetes, having multiple comorbidities and background from the BAME communities.ConclusionsThere was no evidence of COVID-19 deaths occurring disproportionately in the elderly compared with non-COVID deaths in this period in 2020 and 2019. Deaths in the BAME communities were over-represented in both COVID-19 and non-COVID groups, highlighting the need for detailed research in order to fully understand the influence of ethnicity on susceptibility to illness, mortality and health-seeking behaviour during the pandemic.
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Kontopantelis, Evangelos, Mamas A. Mamas, Roger T. Webb, Ana Castro, Martin K. Rutter, Chris P. Gale, Darren M. Ashcroft et al. „Excess years of life lost to COVID-19 and other causes of death by sex, neighbourhood deprivation, and region in England and Wales during 2020: A registry-based study“. PLOS Medicine 19, Nr. 2 (15.02.2022): e1003904. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003904.

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Background Deaths in the first year of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Wales were unevenly distributed socioeconomically and geographically. However, the full scale of inequalities may have been underestimated to date, as most measures of excess mortality do not adequately account for varying age profiles of deaths between social groups. We measured years of life lost (YLL) attributable to the pandemic, directly or indirectly, comparing mortality across geographic and socioeconomic groups. Methods and findings We used national mortality registers in England and Wales, from 27 December 2014 until 25 December 2020, covering 3,265,937 deaths. YLLs (main outcome) were calculated using 2019 single year sex-specific life tables for England and Wales. Interrupted time-series analyses, with panel time-series models, were used to estimate expected YLL by sex, geographical region, and deprivation quintile between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020 by cause: direct deaths (COVID-19 and other respiratory diseases), cardiovascular disease and diabetes, cancer, and other indirect deaths (all other causes). Excess YLL during the pandemic period were calculated by subtracting observed from expected values. Additional analyses focused on excess deaths for region and deprivation strata, by age-group. Between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020, there were an estimated 763,550 (95% CI: 696,826 to 830,273) excess YLL in England and Wales, equivalent to a 15% (95% CI: 14 to 16) increase in YLL compared to the equivalent time period in 2019. There was a strong deprivation gradient in all-cause excess YLL, with rates per 100,000 population ranging from 916 (95% CI: 820 to 1,012) for the least deprived quintile to 1,645 (95% CI: 1,472 to 1,819) for the most deprived. The differences in excess YLL between deprivation quintiles were greatest in younger age groups; for all-cause deaths, a mean of 9.1 years per death (95% CI: 8.2 to 10.0) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 10.8 (95% CI: 10.0 to 11.6) in the most deprived; for COVID-19 and other respiratory deaths, a mean of 8.9 years per death (95% CI: 8.7 to 9.1) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 11.2 (95% CI: 11.0 to 11.5) in the most deprived. For all-cause mortality, estimated deaths in the most deprived compared to the most affluent areas were much higher in younger age groups, but similar for those aged 85 or over. There was marked variability in both all-cause and direct excess YLL by region, with the highest rates in the North West. Limitations include the quasi-experimental nature of the research design and the requirement for accurate and timely recording. Conclusions In this study, we observed strong socioeconomic and geographical health inequalities in YLL, during the first calendar year of the COVID-19 pandemic. These were in line with long-standing existing inequalities in England and Wales, with the most deprived areas reporting the largest numbers in potential YLL.
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Mauritson, Emmaline, Minhdan Nguyen, Judy Truong, Jared Chow, Naveed Wagle, Jose Carrillo, Santosh Kesari et al. „QOL-28. THE LIVED EXPERIENCE OF PATIENTS WITH CHORDOMA – A RETROSPECTIVE CASE SERIES“. Neuro-Oncology 25, Supplement_5 (01.11.2023): v255. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/neuonc/noad179.0980.

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Abstract BACKGROUND Chordoma is a rare malignant tumor arising from the skull base or spine with limited treatment options and poor prognosis. Patients with chordoma experience significant physical and emotional symptoms deleterious to quality of life (QOL). Current literature detailing the experiences of patients with chordoma, including end of life, is limited. Each patient’s course differs depending on tumor location, lesion size, metastatic nature of disease, and treatments. We sought to better understand the lived journey of the chordoma patients seen in our center. METHODS This was a retrospective chart review that evaluated a cohort of chordoma patients seen at our center from March 2017 to May 2023. RESULTS/ CONCLUSION A total of 18 patients were included. Average patient age at diagnosis was 53.3 years old (range: 23 to 87 years). Majority were female (67%) and 78% were White/Caucasian. Clival tumors were most common (55%), followed by spine (sacral (28%) and cervical (17%)). Nearly all tumors were recurrent (94%), almost half were metastatic (44%). All patients underwent tumor resection; the average number of surgeries underwent per patient was 2.7. Fifteen patients received radiation (83%) and sixteen patients participated in at least one clinical trial (88%). The average Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) at the initial outpatient visit was 80, which decreased to 72.2 by last outpatient visit. Most reported symptoms included emotional distress (78%), neuropathic pain (72%), muscular and bone pain (56%), vision changes (44%), dysphagia (39%), and headaches (39%). The average survival from diagnosis was 3.7 years (range: 2 to 23 years). Eight patients (45%) have passed, 5 of whom were enrolled on hospice at the time of death. Causes of death included seizures (1), respiratory failure due to tumor progression (3), bowel ischemia (1), medical aid in dying (1) and failure to thrive (1).
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St. Michel, David P., Naeem Goussous, Nathalie L. Orr, Rolf N. Barth, Stephen H. Gray, John C. LaMattina und David A. Bruno. „Hepatic Artery Pseudoaneurysm in the Liver Transplant Recipient: A Case Series“. Case Reports in Transplantation 2019 (27.12.2019): 1–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/9108903.

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Introduction. Hepatic artery pseudoaneurysm is a rare and potentially fatal complication of liver transplantation with a reported incidence of 0.3–2.6% and associated mortality approaching 75%. Clinical presentation typically includes sudden hypotension, gastrointestinal bleed or abnormal liver function tests within two months of transplantation. We report a series of four cases of hepatic artery pseudoaneurysm in adult liver transplant recipients with the goal of identifying factors that may aid in early diagnosis, prior to the development of life threatening complications. Methods. A retrospective chart review at a high volume transplant center revealed 4 cases of hepatic artery pseudoaneurysm among 553 liver transplants (Incidence 0.72%) between March 2013 and March 2017. Results. Two of the four patients died immediately after intervention, one patient survived an additional 151 days prior to death from an unrelated condition and one patient survived at two years follow up. All cases utilized multiple imaging modalities that failed to identify the pseudoaneurysm prior to diagnosis with computed tomography angiography (CTA). Two cases had culture proven preoperative intrabdominal infections, while the remaining two cases manifested a perioperative course highly suspicious for infection (retransplant for hepatic necrosis after hepatic artery thrombosis and infected appearing vessel at reoperation, respectively). Three of the four cases either had a delayed biliary anastomosis or development of a bile leak, leading to contamination of the abdomen with bile. Additionally, three of the four cases demonstrated at least one episode of hypotension with acute anemia at least 5 days prior to diagnosis of the hepatic artery pseudoaneurysm. Conclusions. Recognition of several clinical features may increase the early identification of hepatic artery pseudoaneurysm in liver transplant recipients. These include culture proven intrabdominal infection or high clinical suspicion for infection, complicated surgical course resulting either in delayed performance of biliary anastomosis or a biliary leak, and an episode of hypotension with acute anemia. In combination, the presence of these characteristics can lead the clinician to investigate with appropriate imaging prior to the onset of life threatening complications requiring emergent intervention. This may lead to increased survival in patients with this life threatening complication.
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Hegde, Shruti, Rizwan Khan, Magdi Zordok und Michael Maysky. „Characteristics and outcome of patients with COVID-19 complicated by Takotsubo cardiomyopathy: case series with literature review“. Open Heart 7, Nr. 2 (Oktober 2020): e001360. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/openhrt-2020-001360.

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BackgroundCardiac involvement with COVID-19 is increasingly being recognised. Clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with COVID-19 complicated by secondary Takotsubo cardiomyopathy (TC) is poorly understood.MethodsThis retrospective case series was conducted between March and April 2020 at four hospitals of Steward Health Care Network of Massachusetts, USA. Seven patients out of 169 who had echocardiogram were identified to have features of TC. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, management and outcome were gathered from their electronic medical records. We also reviewed all the published cases of COVID-19 and TC in the literature to recognise their common clinical characteristics, risk factors and outcomes.ResultsIn our series of seven patients, three typical, two inverted, one biventricular and one global TC were recognised. Three were females and four were males. The mean age was 71±11 years. In-hospital death was observed in 57% of patients. Patients who belonged to the high-risk group and had high-risk echocardiographic features in our series had a 100% mortality rate.ConclusionsCOVID-19 complicated by TC has a high mortality rate. Early identification of patients with COVID-19 who are at higher risk for developing secondary TC is important for the prevention of complications, and thus improved outcomes.
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Syafri, Adis Audiana, I. Putu Ryan Dharma Putra und I. Wayan Eka Mahendra. „Efforts to improve the physical quality of the elderly through the healthy living community movement (GERMAS) in Petiga Village“. Community Empowerment 6, Nr. 12 (31.12.2021): 2322–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.31603/ce.6333.

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The death rate due to Covid-19 has continued to increase since it was first announced in early March 2020. This community service is carried out with the Healthy Living Community Movement (Germas) approach, one of which is physical activity. The activities were carried out using an educative and persuasive method for 4 months, starting from August to November 2021. This community service includes three types of activities, namely training and yoga assistance for elderly cadres, training in making herbal drinks (loloh) and establishing a tracking path for the elderly in Petiga Village. From a series of programs, the people of Petiga Village gave a positive response. These activities are able to provide benefits in accordance with the health problems of the elderly.
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Kang, Tep M. „Propofol Infusion Syndrome in Critically Ill Patients“. Annals of Pharmacotherapy 36, Nr. 9 (September 2002): 1453–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1345/aph.1a321.

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OBJECTIVE: To describe the clinical presentation of propofol infusion syndrome in critically ill adults. DATA SOURCES: Clinical literature was accessed through MEDLINE (1966 — March 2001). Key search terms included Diprivan, propofol, and propofol infusion syndrome. Case reports and small case series evaluating the use and toxicity of propofol in sedating critically ill adults were reviewed. DATA SYNTHESIS: The association between propofol infusion syndrome and death in children secondary to myocardial failure is well documented. However, few data are available regarding the syndrome in critically ill adults. Based on a review of those data, it appears that propofol infusion syndrome can occur in both children and adults. Common clinical features of propofol infusion syndrome may include hyperkalemia, hepatomegaly, lipemia, metabolic acidosis, myocardial failure, and rhabdomyolysis. Although the premise has not been proven, recent published cases appear to demonstrate an association between propofol infusion and death secondary to myocardial failure. CONCLUSIONS: Until further safety data become available, caution should be exercised when using high-dose (>5 mg/kg/h) and long-term (>48 h) propofol infusion in sedating critically ill adults.
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Mira, Ana Rita, João Pedro Pereira, Catrine Dahlstedt-Ferreira, Margarida Enes, Hélder Oliveira Coelho und Ana Beatriz Godinho. „Fetal Deaths in SARS-CoV-2-Infected Pregnant Women: A Portuguese Case Series“. Case Reports in Obstetrics and Gynecology 2022 (03.08.2022): 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/8423733.

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Introduction. Stillbirth has been documented as an outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy. Placental hypoperfusion and inflammation secondary to maternal immune response seem to play a role in the cascade of events that contribute to fetal death. The aim of our study is to report a perinatal outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy adding information to the pool of data on COVID-19 pregnancy outcomes. Case Presentation. This is the first stillbirth case series occurring in pregnant women infected with SARS-CoV-2 in a Portuguese cohort. Between April 2020 and March 2021, we had 2680 births in our centre, of which 130 (4.95%) involved mothers infected with SARS-CoV-2. Of total births, there were 14 stillbirths (0.52%), accounting for the highest stillbirth rate we have had in the last 5 years. Among these 14 stillbirths, 5 (35.71%) occurred in SARS-CoV-2-infected mothers. We report the clinical features and placental histopathologic findings of 4 stillbirth cases that occurred in our hospital. Discussion. The stillbirth rate among SARS-CoV-2-infected pregnant women (5/130; 3.84%) was significantly increased compared to noninfected patients (9/2550; 0.35%). Most women (3/4) were asymptomatic for COVID-19, a surprising outcome, given the current literature. All cases had histologic exams showing placental signs of vascular malperfusion, although we acknowledge that 3/5 had obstetric conditions related to placental vascular impairment such as preeclampsia and HELLP syndrome. Conclusion. Stillbirth can be a perinatal consequence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy, even in asymptomatic patients. We urge more studies to explore the association between SARS-CoV-2 infection and the risk of stillbirth.
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Purwandari, Titi, Solichatus Zahroh, Yuyun Hidayat, Sukonob Sukonob, Mustafa Mamat und Jumadil Saputra. „Forecasting model of COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia: An application of time series approach using neural network“. Decision Science Letters 11, Nr. 1 (2022): 35–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.5267/j.dsl.2021.10.001.

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COVID-19 has spread to more than a hundred countries worldwide since the first case reported in late 2019 in Wuhan, China. As one of the countries affected by the spread of COVID-19 cases, the local government of Malaysia has issued several policies to reduce the spread of this outbreak. One of the measures taken by the Malaysian government, namely the Movement Control Order, has been carried out since March 18, 2020. In order to provide precise information to the government so that it can take the appropriate measures, many researchers have attempted to predict and create the model for these cases to identify the number of cases each day and the peak of this pandemic. Therefore, hospitals and health workers can anticipate a surge in COVID-19 patients. In this research, confirmed, recovered, and death cases prediction was performed using the neural network as one of the machine learning methods with high accuracy. The neural network model used is the Multi-Layer Perceptron, Neural Network Auto-Regressive, and Extreme Learning Machine. The three models calculated the average percentage error (APE) values for 7 days and obtained APE values for most cases less than 10%; only 1 case in the last day of one method had an APE value of approximately 11%. Furthermore, based on the best model, then the forecast is made for the next 7 days. In conclusion, this study identified that the MLP model is the best model for 7-step ahead forecasting for confirmed, recovered, and death cases in Malaysia. However, according to the result of testing data, the ELM performs better than the MLP model.
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CRIST, STEPHEN A. „DER HOFKAPELLMEISTER IN THÜRINGEN UM 1700: INTERNATIONALES SYMPOSIUM ANLÄSSLICH DES 300. TODESTAGES VON PHILIPP HEINRICH ERLEBACH WEIMAR AND RUDOLSTADT, 10–11 OCTOBER 2014“. Eighteenth Century Music 12, Nr. 2 (24.08.2015): 271–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1478570615000214.

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The larger context of this conference was the annual festival of early music in Thuringia known as Güldener Herbst (Golden Autumn). The series of concerts, church services, guided tours and similar events in late September and early October took note of the three hundredth anniversaries of Carl Philipp Emanuel Bach's birth on 8 March 1714 and Philipp Heinrich Erlebach's death a few weeks later, on 17 April. Since Bach was born in Weimar (central Germany) but worked primarily in the northern cities of Berlin and Hamburg, and Erlebach, conversely, hailed from a small town in the far northwest but spent his career in Rudolstadt (about twenty miles south of Weimar), the 2014 festival focused on cultural interrelationships between the two regions, summed up in the subtitle ‘Norddeutsche Impulse’ (north German impulses).
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Gaoussou, Sogoba, Katilé Drissa, Soumbounou Goundo, Goïta Lassina, Fofana Oumar, Sangaré Sidy, Traoré Lamine Issaga et al. „Post-Traumatic Peritonitis in the General Surgery Departement of the Fousseyni Daou Hospital in Kayes, Mali“. SAS Journal of Surgery 10, Nr. 01 (30.01.2024): 136–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.36347/sasjs.2024.v10i01.024.

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Introduction: Acute generalized peritonitis is an acute inflammation and / or infection of the peritoneum. It is most often secondary to perforation of an intraperitoneal organ and/ or the spread of an intra-abdominal septic focus. Post-traumatic peritonitis is due to the pathological opening of the wall of a hollow organ of the digestive tract following trauma. Objective: To study post-traumatic peritonitis in the general surgery department of the Fousseyni Daou Hospitol in Kayes. Patients and Method: This was a rétrospective and descriptive study. The retrospective period extended from March 2019 to February 2022 and the prospective period from March 2022 to February 2023 inclusive. We included in this study all patients who consulted the emergency reception services and who were operated and the hospitalized in the general surgery department of the Fousseyni Daou Hospitol in Kayes for post-traumatic peritonitis. Results: The frequency of post-traumatic peritonitis was 10%. The 11-20 year old age group was the most represented with 34.40%. In our series, 90.60% of patients Cameroun urgently. Abdominal contusions were the most frequent reason for admission with 46.90%. Public road accidents were the most common etiology with 34.40%. The most common preoperative diagnosis was peritonitis by perforation of a hollow organ with 62.50%. Therapeutically,50% of patients benefited from excision, suture, washing and drainage. Surgical site infection was the main complication with 28.60%, and the death rate was 57.10% among complications. Conclusion: Post-traumatic peritonitis is nowadays a concern in emergency surgery because it represents a significant cause of death in the surgical environment.
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Sonoda, Yuki, Akihiko Ozaki, Arinobu Hori, Asaka Higuchi, Yuki Shimada, Kana Yamamoto, Tomohiro Morita, Toyoaki Sawano, Claire Leppold und Masaharu Tsubokura. „Premature Death of a Schizophrenic Patient due to Evacuation after a Nuclear Disaster in Fukushima“. Case Reports in Psychiatry 2019 (07.04.2019): 1–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/3284153.

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Although psychiatric patients are likely to be adversely impacted by disasters, information regarding the processes involved in adverse impacts is limited. In March 2011, Japan experienced an earthquake, tsunami, and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. In its aftermath, Takano Hospital, 22 km south of the power plant, underwent forced patient evacuation. A 54-year-old Japanese male with schizophrenia, who had been hospitalized in the psychiatric ward for over 20 years, was transferred and experienced a series of hospital relocations. Although his physical status was intact when he left Takano Hospital, his condition gradually worsened, presumably due to incomplete exchange of patient information between institutions and changes in the treatment environment. Having developed ileus a few days prior, he was bedridden when he returned to Takano Hospital in May 2011. Over the course of treatment, he developed aspiration pneumonia and died in August 2011. A review of medical records revealed that all his purgative medicines had been stopped after his evacuation, possibly contributing to the development of ileus. This case highlights the necessity of establishing systems enabling patient information sharing between institutions in disaster settings and the importance of recognizing that long-term evacuation may have fatal impacts for psychiatric patients.
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Bogdanova, O. V., und E. A. Vlasova. „In Search of Self-Knowledge (Intertext of I. Brodsky’s Poem “The Procession”)“. Nauchnyi dialog 11, Nr. 2 (19.03.2022): 258–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.24224/2227-1295-2022-11-2-258-281.

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In the article, based on the material of the “mystery poem” by I. Brodsky “The Procession” (1961), intertextual links are traced that allow us to penetrate into the deep layers of the poem, to see behind its plot not the story of a love disappointment (I. Romanova) or the motives of the farcical comedy dell’arte (E. Fetisova), but philosophical reflections on time, on life and death (life-death). The intertextuality in “The Procession” goes beyond literature: the compositional structure of the poem is mediated by the influence of jazz variations and blues repetitions. As a musical pretext of “The Procession”, the classic of the Leningrad dixieland “When the saints go marching in...” is attributed. According to the jazz harmony the plot of the poem is formed as a series of zongs-voices, variants-improvisations of Hamlet’s theme “To be or not to be?” (“life / death”), which in Brodsky’s poem received a subjective version: “death comes as if for the first time...” The “vortex” composition, mediated by the rhythms of jazz, allows Brodsky to lead the hero through all the circles of Dante’s “Hell”, bringing him closer to “Purgatory” in the final poem and giving him the opportunity to pass initiation, to be among the “initiates”. The hero does not reach the heights of “Paradise”, but he is granted “even breath [verse]”, explicating the idea of an eternal life march to an unattainable world harmony.
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Gaoussou, Sogoba, Katilé Drissa, Soumbounou Goundo, Goïta Lassina, Konaté Souleymane, Sangaré Sidy, Traoré Lamine Issaga et al. „Epidemio-Clinical and Therapeutic Aspects of Digestive Surgical Emergencies at Fousseyni Daou Hospital in Kayes“. SAS Journal of Surgery 10, Nr. 01 (30.01.2024): 131–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.36347/sasjs.2024.v10i01.023.

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Introduction: According to the WHO, digestive surgical emergencies are abdominal pain lasting a few hours or days (les s than three) and which are related to a surgical pathology requiring emergency treatment. Digestive surgical emergencies are pathologies which occupy an important place in surgery due to their high frequency, their difficult management, and their high mortality and morbidity rate. Objective: Study the epidemio-clinical and therapeutic aspects of digestive surgical emergencies à the Fousseyni Daou in Kayes Hospital. Patients et Method: This was a prospective and descriptive study from March 2022 to March 2023 in the general surgery department of Fousseyni Daou Hospitol in Kayes. We included in this study all patients operated on for a digestive surgical emergency without distinction of sex or age. Results: The frequency of digestive surgical emergencies was 42.53%. The 10-20 year old age group was most represented with 37%. Abdominal pain was the most fréquent reason for admission with 87%. The site of pain was the right iliac fossa in 35% of cases. Acute appendix was the most common preoperative diagnosis with 37%. In our series, 54% of patients were operated on in les s than 24 hours. Therapeutically, 47% of patients benefited from an appendectomy. In our series, 30% of patients presented with a postoperative complications. We observed 3 cases of death. Conclusion: Digestive surgical emergencies occupy an important place in digestive pathology due to their high frequency at the Fousseyni Daou Hospitol in Kayes. The etiologies are multiple and varied, hence the need for close multidisciplinary collaboration for treatment.
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Abdul-Mumin, Alhassan, Kingsley Appiah Bimpong, Cesia Cotache-Condor, Jonathan Oppong, Ana Maria Simono Charadan, Adam Munkaila, Joao Vitor Perez de Souza und Emily R. Smith. „Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on perinatal care and outcomes: A retrospective study in a tertiary hospital in Northern Ghana“. PLOS ONE 19, Nr. 5 (31.05.2024): e0301081. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0301081.

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Background Perinatal mortality remains a global challenge. This challenge may be worsened by the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and child health. Objectives Examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on perinatal care and outcomes in the Tamale Teaching Hospital in northern Ghana. Methods A hospital-based retrospective study was conducted in the Tamale Teaching Hospital. We compared antenatal care attendance, total deliveries, cesarean sections, and perinatal mortality before the COVID-19 pandemic (March 1, 2019 to February 28, 2020) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (March 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021). Interrupted time series analyses was performed to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on perinatal care and outcomes at TTH. Results A total number of 35,350 antenatal visits and 16,786 deliveries were registered at TTH from March 2019 to February 2021. Antenatal care, early neonatal death, and emergency cesarean section showed a rapid decline after the onset of the pandemic, with a progressive recovery over the following months. The total number of deliveries and fresh stillbirths showed a step change with a marked decrease during the pandemic, while the macerated stillbirths showed a pulse change, a temporary marked decrease with a quick recovery over time. Conclusion The COVID-19 pandemic had a negative impact on perinatal care and outcomes in our facility. Pregnancy monitoring through antenatal care should be encouraged and continued even as countries tackle the pandemic.
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Sowden, Ryann, Erica Borgstrom und Lucy E. Selman. „‘It’s like being in a war with an invisible enemy’: A document analysis of bereavement due to COVID-19 in UK newspapers“. PLOS ONE 16, Nr. 3 (04.03.2021): e0247904. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247904.

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The COVID-19 pandemic has been followed intensely by the global news media, with deaths and bereavement a major focus. The media reflect and reinforce cultural conventions and sense-making, offering a lens which shapes personal experiences and attitudes. How COVID-19 bereavement is reported therefore has important societal implications. We aimed to explore the reportage and portrayal of COVID-19 related bereavement in the top seven most-read British online newspapers during two week-long periods in March and April 2020. We conducted a qualitative document analysis of all articles that described grief or bereavement after a death from COVID-19. Analysis of 55 articles was informed by critical discourse analysis and Terror Management Theory, which describes a psychological conflict arising between the realisation that death is inevitable and largely unpredictable and the human need for self-preservation. We identified three main narratives: (1) fear of an uncontrollable, unknown new virus and its uncertain consequences—associated with sensationalist language and a sense of helplessness and confusion; (2) managing uncertainty and fear via prediction of the future and calls for behaviour change, associated with use of war metaphors; and (3) mourning and loss narratives that paid respect to the deceased and gave voice to grief, associated with euphemistic or glorifying language (‘passed away’, ‘heroes’). Accounts of death and grief were largely homogenous, with bereavement due to COVID-19 presented as a series of tragedies, and there was limited practical advice about what to do if a loved one became seriously ill or died. Reporting reflected the tension between focusing on existential threat and the need to retreat from or attempt to control that threat. While the impact of this reporting on the public is unknown, a more nuanced approach is recommended to better support those bereaved by COVID-19.
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