Dissertationen zum Thema „Serials Department“
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Hu, Yi Ni. „Serial killers in the People's Republic of China :the origins underlying the serial killing“. Thesis, University of Macau, 2016. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b3534658.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleIrwin, Adam. „The diagnosis of serious bacterial infections in the children's Emergency Department“. Thesis, University of Liverpool, 2016. http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/2005599/.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleLucius, Tommie J. „Department of Defense quality management systems and ISO 9000:2000“. Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2002. http://sirsi.nps.navy.mil/uhtbin/hyperion-image/02Mar%5FLucius.pdf.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleMargolis, Jayne B. „The Muhlenberg College Media Services Department videotaped audio visual equipment training series“. Instructions for remote access. Click here to access this electronic resource. Access available to Kutztown University faculty, staff, and students only, 1989. http://www.kutztown.edu/library/services/remote_access.asp.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleSource: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 45-06, page: 2807. Abstract precedes title page. Typescript. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 50-51).
Rico, Florentino Antonio. „Emergency department capacity planning for a pandemic scenario : nurse allocation“. [Tampa, Fla] : University of South Florida, 2009. http://purl.fcla.edu/usf/dc/et/SFE0003245.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleLam, Vai Iam. „Time domain approach in time series analysis“. Thesis, University of Macau, 2000. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b1446633.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleMui, Chi Seong. „Frequency domain approach to time series analysis“. Thesis, University of Macau, 2000. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b1446676.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleHolfert, Heidi H. „Learning objectives for Department of the Navy entry-level budget analysts (Series GS-560)“. Thesis, Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/28331.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleEl-Sharo, Moh'd Ragheb A. „Predicting hospital admissions from emergency department using artificial neural networks and time series analysis“. Diss., Online access via UMI:, 2009.
Den vollen Inhalt der Quelle findenIncludes bibliographical references.
Liu, Shuang. „Convergence of Fourier series on the sphere in the Clifford analysis setting“. Thesis, University of Macau, 2002. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b1446719.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleLee, Kam-hung. „Implementation of ISO 9000 in electrical & mechanical services Department /“. Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 1996. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B17983769.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleLee, Jacques Simon. „Acute abdominal pain in the emergency department : physicians' use of opioid analgesics and the incidence of serious outcomes“. Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1997. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape11/PQDD_0004/MQ44204.pdf.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleTobin, Martin James. „Risk Management for Persons with Serious Mental Illness: A Process Analysis of Washington State Department of Corrections' Tools“. Antioch University / OhioLINK, 2019. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=antioch1572238409240387.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleLee, Kam-hung, und 李錦鴻. „Implementation of ISO 9000 in electrical & mechanical services Department“. Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1996. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31267373.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleNg, Piu Lawrence, und 吳彪. „The development and implementation of ISO 9000 in the LPM branch, civil engineering department“. Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1997. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31268249.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleHong, Fang. „Cross-listed shares in Hong Kong and mainland China stock markets : time series evidence“. Thesis, University of Macau, 2010. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b2144049.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleNg, Piu Lawrence. „The development and implementation of ISO 9000 in the LPM branch, civil engineering department /“. Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 1997. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B18835892.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleZhao, Ping. „Time series analysis and forecasting with the application of SAS in forecasting tourist arrivals in Macau“. Thesis, University of Macau, 2004. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b1447314.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleDang, Pei. „Time-frequency analysis based on mono-components“. Thesis, University of Macau, 2011. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b2489938.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleWaters, Heidi C. „Evaluating the Impact of Integrated Care on Service Utilization in Serious Mental Illness“. ScholarWorks, 2017. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/3374.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleChu, Kuok Kun. „Nonlinear time series analysis of Chinese stock markets : Shanghai stock exchanges & Shenzhen stock exchanges“. Thesis, University of Macau, 2000. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b1636220.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleArbuckle, Lon Michel Luk. „Short-Term Occupancy Prediction at the Ottawa Hospital Using Time-Series Data for Admissions and Longitudinal Patient Data for Discharge“. Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/20545.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleKaspar, Margaret Ann. „California's "long-standing, serious noncompliance" in the delivery of special education and related services“. CSUSB ScholarWorks, 2002. https://scholarworks.lib.csusb.edu/etd-project/2132.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleTang, Lin. „Efficient Inference for Periodic Autoregressive Coefficients with Polynomial Spline Smoothing Approach“. University of Toledo / OhioLINK, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo1449770216.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleCochran, Tanya R. „Toward a Rhetoric of Scholar-Fandom“. Digital Archive @ GSU, 2009. http://digitalarchive.gsu.edu/english_diss/51.
Der volle Inhalt der QuellePearce, Maryanne. „An Awkward Silence: Missing and Murdered Vulnerable Women and the Canadian Justice System“. Thèse, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/26299.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleSheetz, Nathaniel Cloud Medeiros D. J. „Predicting emergency department census using time series regression“. 2008. http://etda.libraries.psu.edu/theses/approved/WorldWideIndex/ETD-2966/index.html.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleChen, Chieh-Fan, und 陳介凡. „Forecasting emergency department revenue and patient volumes -- a study of time series analysis“. Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/31669076245425122484.
Der volle Inhalt der Quelle高雄醫學大學
醫務管理學研究所碩士在職專班
98
Study objective The present study aimed to determine the feasibility of forecasting the emergency department (ED) revenue and patient volumes based on the three aspects of meteorology, organization and socio-economy. Methods In this retrospective study, we attempted to predict the monthly ED revenue and trauma, non-traumatic, pediatric patient volumes in the future intermediate period with the method of Box-Jenkins Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series model. Data for analysis were the counts of monthly revenue and patient volumes at the ED of an acute care regional general hospital from Jan. 2005 to Sep. 2009. Patients were stratified into three divisions: trauma, non-traumatic and pediatric patients. The ARIMA method was separately applied to each of the income and the three separate divisions. Independent variables explored in the model were monthly average of daily maximum and minimum temperature, daily relative humidity and monthly rain fall in meteorological aspect; trauma, pediatric, non-traumatic patient volumes in organizational aspect and variation of stock market index in socio-economic aspect. Results The three aspects had different influences on ED revenue and patients volumes. The ED revenue tended to increase with the maximum temperature, relative humidity, rain fall, non-traumatic and traumatic visits; and decrease with the minimum temperature. Traumatic patient volumes increased with the minimum temperature and the stock market index fluctuation. Non-traumatic visits tended to increase with the maximum temperature, relative humidity and the stock market index fluctuation. The pediatric visits increased with the maximum temperature and relative humidity but decreased with the minimum temperature. The model of intermediate forecasting ED revenue had reasonable to good results. And it is accuracy for traumatic patient volumes is good to excellent; for non- traumatic patient volumes is reasonable to good; but for pediatric patient volumes, it’s not good. Conclusion Meteorological, organizational and socio-economic predictors can make an accurate forecasting model for intermediate ED revenue, traumatic and non-traumatic patient volumes.
Chen, Shu-Hsing, und 陳素幸. „Measuring Operational Performance and Time-Series Efficiency Change Model on Hospitals of Department of Health“. Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/37672301670369239373.
Der volle Inhalt der Quelle元智大學
管理研究所
97
With the change of payment methods of National Health Insurance (NHI) and the change of operational modes in medical industry, medical care institutions are facing the impact of reduction in global budget floating values of NHI and the reduction in medical income. However, public hospitals still have to offer medical care services, undertake the social responsibility and policy responsibility endowed by the government, and put the health policy of disease prevention and health promotion into practice. Affiliated hospitals of Department of Health (DOH) are the most widely distributed hospitals among the public hospital system. Ever since the NHI policy was put into practice, the medical care seeking behaviors of people have changed. With the gradual decrease in official budget of the government, affiliated hospitals of DOH started to implement the policy of regional alliance to make medical network more complete. It is hoped that the regional alliance among hospitals can reduce the management costs and improve service quality and operational efficiency through methods, such as resources sharing, techniques exchange, joint marketing and joint procurement. The subjects of this study were 22 acute care affiliated hospitals of DOH. This study used Data Envelopment Analysis and chose proper variables of inputs and outputs to evaluate the operational efficiency of year 2007 and analyze the efficiency of time-series from 2005 to 2007. The DEA model in this study used the number of hospital beds, doctors, nurses, non-medical staffs, and administrative staffs as inputs and used the number of inpatients, surgeries, and both outpatient and emergency visits as outputs. The empirical results of DEA found that when comparing the analytical results of efficiency of affiliated hospitals of DOH with external environments (i.e. other public hospitals, Non-Profit Proprietary Hospitals, and private hospitals), the overall efficiency of affiliated hospitals of DOH in 2007 ranked the third, the technical performance was poor, and the scale efficiency ranked the second. It could be inferred that when comparing affiliated hospitals of DOH with other hospitals, many aspects in affiliated hospitals of DOH were still left to be improved, especially the aspect of technical efficiency. Also, the improvement in technical efficiency would help improving the overall efficiency. When comparing the internal environments (i.e. the 22 acute care affiliated hospitals of DOH), the analytic results of overall efficiency of 12 hospitals was relatively high (CCR=1), the technical efficiency of 16 hospitals was relatively high, and the scale efficiency of 12 hospitals was relatively high, which was the same with that of overall efficiency (Scale=1). The analytical results of Super-Efficiency indicated that the performance of Taitung Hospital was the best. The long term year-span analysis of efficiency of 22 acute care affiliated hospitals of DOH found that except for Heng-chun Tourism Hospital, the efficiency of other 21 hospitals in 2007 improved much better than that in 2005. It could be concluded that the implementation of regional alliance among hospitals by resources sharing, techniques exchange, and joint marketing did improve the service quality and operational performance of hospitals, reduce the management costs, and achieve great performance in increasing competitiveness. Keywords: Affiliated hospitals of Department of Health, Performance evaluation, Data Envelopment Analysis
Tok, Teck-Siang, und 卓德松. „A Study of The Revenue of Regional HospitalPediatric Department:A Time Series Analysis“. Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/37018326543859624930.
Der volle Inhalt der Quelle高雄醫學大學
醫務管理學研究所碩士在職專班
97
In the early stages of Taiwan healthcare system, although health resources are scarce and most hospitals are smaller in size comparatively, but most health care organizations were still able to maintain a reliable profit. But as time progress and with the change of the medical care environment, today health system management is much different from the older day. Poor organization administration may face close down or retreat from the market. There are plenty of references about how much resource input and output, especially from medical care or national medical strategy dealing with medical resource distribution and efficiency or outcome of medical resource they input. But research about the relationship of how much resource an individual hospital investment and it resulted revenue is very rare. Thus hope that this study by Time Series Analysis, can find out how under the National Health Insurance global budget how related factors affected a hospital pediatric department medical resource input and it resulted revenue. Also hope that this finding can help to set up a production equation for predicting future hospital pediatric department revenue. Purpose The study has two purposes: (1) to understand the effect of several variables on revenue of a regional hospital pediatric department. These variables include human resources (visiting staff, resident, nurse), number of outpatient, outpatient clinic, emergency patient, pediatric bed, inpatient, inpatient-day, hospital newborn, the capital equipment net value (deduction amortizes after the book value), 0-19 years-olds population and newborn baby of Pingtung County. (2) To find an equation that able to predict revenue of pediatric department in the future. Materials and methods The study hospital for this analysis is a Christian regional teaching hospital located in Pingtung City. Retrospective longitudinal quantitative data from Jan 2004 to May 2008 were used in this study. The research v was designed according to the motivation and purposes of this study. An experimental model framework of this research was decided only after thorough search of related references and studies. A model was constructed for investment of resources input and final outcome of pediatric department revenue. In this study the time series ARIMA model of SPSS 12.0 version was employed. Results The revenue of pediatric department of the study hospital had a decreasing tendency at the first two and half years, but showed an increase trend in the following years of the study period. After the first order of indifference, the increasing and decreasing trends disappeared. No seasonal changes were noted after the spectral analysis. In the auto-correlations analysis of the revenue of pediatric department, the p value is less than 0.05, meaning that monthly revenues have a close intra-relationship to each other. In order to diminish the influence of “time” variable in the revenue of pediatric department, figures of ACF and PACF were analyzed. An ARIMA (p,d,q) model is finally decided, that is (2,12). The influenced variables in this model are number of outpatient clinic, outpatient, inpatient, inpatient-day, visiting staff, resident and hospital newborn. Variables like number of emergency patient, pediatric bed, nurse, the capital equipment value and newborn baby of Pingtung County showed no statistical significant. The positive influenced variables are number of outpatient, inpatient-day, visiting staff, resident, and hospital newborn. The negative influenced variables are number of outpatient, inpatient and 0-19 years olds population of Pingtung County. Discussion and Conclusion This study elucidated variables that have significant influence on the increase of revenue of pediatric department, the sequence from strongest to weakest influence variables are number of visiting staff, resident, hospital newborn, in-patient person-day and outpatient. The variables that have significant influence on the decrease of revenue of pediatric department, from strongest to weakest influence variables are number of outpatient clinic, inpatient and the population of 0-19 year olds of vi Pingtung County. The most important factors of the revenue of pediatric department come from the income of outpatient, in-patient and emergency pediatric department. The pediatric doctors, visiting staffs and residents are the main resource creating the income. From this point of view, increase the number of doctors will increase the income of pediatric department. But increased income does not equivalent to increased profit. Therefore, the management level should find out an appropriated number and ratio of visiting staffs and residents after have an overall consideration of the globe budget payment system, the capacity, equipments and adequate target profits of the hospital. There is no statistical significant influence between the income of pediatric department and its emergency department. The possible explanation is due to the relative stable patient number during the study period. The difference between the predict and the observed value of the revenue of the pediatric department of ARIMA model (2,1,2) is around 20.86%, and the MAPEs are ranged from 3.11% to 35.95%. It is a quiet good revenue-forecasting model.
CHEN, LI-AN, und 陳立安. „A Deep Neural Network Based Non-linear Ensemble Framework for Time Series Forecasting of Emergency Department Patients Visits“. Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/6cbgrb.
Der volle Inhalt der Quelle輔仁大學
資訊管理學系碩士班
107
Due to the convenience of medical treatment and the provision of National Health Insurance in Taiwan, there are often problems in which emergency department are often and emergency overcrowding occurs. This research will use the historical emergency visits data to predict the daily patient visits through a time series model for doctors and nurses to make the most appropriate head count arrangement. From the above motivations, this study will develop three research purposes. 1. Use a time series data to make predictions and evaluate the effectiveness of each prediction model. 2. Use a heuristic algorithm in the model to see if it will effectively improve the model. 3. Use the combined forecasting method to confirm whether the prediction accuracy of the model can be improved. This research will combine the linear and nonlinear combination prediction methods with the following five models. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model(ARIMA), Gray Prediction, Recurrent Neural Networks(RNN), Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit(GRU). In addition to combine five models to predict the numbers of emergency patients, the research will also be adjusted in each model by using Differential Evolution(DE). Using Mean Square Error(MSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE) evaluation indicators to judge the quality of the results. It can be known from the experimental results that in the single model, the traditional time series model has a poorer prediction effect than the cyclic neural network model. The addition of heuristic algorithm and combined prediction method can improve the prediction accuracy, and the result is better than the single model.
Wang, Jonathan. „On Quantifying and Forecasting Emergency Department Overcrowding at Sunnybrook Hospital using Statistical Analyses and Artificial Neural Networks“. Thesis, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1807/33580.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleWei-cheng, Chen, und 陳偉誠. „A Study on Corporate Design Department''s Involvement of Carrying Out ISO 9000 Series Quality Assurance System and Its Consequences“. Thesis, 1999. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/36908688058192174863.
Der volle Inhalt der Quelle國立成功大學
工業設計學系
87
ABSTRACTAs the global trade competition becomes more and more intense, getting ISO 9000 recognition is considered as the key pass into EC (European Community) and winning international orders for Taiwan''s businesses. Meanwhile, as Taiwan tries to upgrade industries'' competence, design and R&will inevitably play a more and more important roll. Therefore, how ISO standard series affect design and R& and how design sectors responsible for design and R&in businesses respond to the ISO trends and involve the carrying out of ISO''s are worth investigating. And hence, the purpose of this study is set to identify the appropriate rolls design sectors should play and to maximize the value they can contribute to the businesses during carryingout the ISO series.The study comprises three phases in summing up the model for design sector''s participating carrying out ISO 9000 series. First, it analyzes current government strategies toward ISO series, business policies on ISO series, and the relationships between design and ISO series. Secondly, it investigates, via case studies, the breadth and depth of design sector''s participation while the business carrying out ISO 9000 series. Thirdly, it verifies the findings, via questionnaires, to construct the model. All the subjects selected for this experiment had least passed ISO 9001.Some early results summarized from this study exhibit below:(1) The major problems design sectors facing in carrying out ISO 9000 series include: forgot to update documents, and frequent organizational changes;(2) The influences of ISO 9000 series on design performances can be measured by three indicators: the completeness of documents and drawings, the continuity of documents, and the searchability of documents;(3) The advantages design sectors benefit from being implementing ISO 9001 included: can formalize the production of design documents and design drawings, and identify exactly where goes wrong if any;(4) The disadvantages affecting design sectors while implementing ISO 9001 included: documenting was tedious and complicated for designers, and time for design was occupied by paperwork;(5) The most significant contribution design sectors made in carrying out ISO 9000 series is compiling product development related documents.Keywords: ISO 9000, Design, R& Design Sector
„Application of ISO 9000 quality standard to a maintenance department of a construction material supplier“. Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1995. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5888305.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleThesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1995.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 64-65).
ABSTRACT --- p.iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.v
LIST OF FIGURES --- p.vii
LIST OF TABLES --- p.viii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS --- p.ix
Chapter
Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION
The Development of Quality --- p.1
Rise of International Quality Standard --- p.2
ISO 9000 Quality Standard --- p.3
Significance of ISO 9000 --- p.5
Maintenance Management --- p.7
Project Objective --- p.8
Chapter II. --- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Case Study Approach --- p.10
Settings and Timeframe --- p.10
Data Collection --- p.11
Literature Review --- p.12
Chapter III. --- MAINTENANCE MANAGEMENT
Company Profile --- p.13
Maintenance Department --- p.14
Repair and Maintenance --- p.16
Problems Encountered --- p.18
Improved Operating System --- p.21
Benefits of the New System --- p.28
Limitations of the New System --- p.29
Chapter IV. --- APPLICATION OF ISO 9000 QUALITY SYSTEM
14Elements Applied to Maintenance Department --- p.31
Implementation Process --- p.41
Difficulties Encountered --- p.45
Hints to Successful Implementation --- p.47
Benefits and Drawbacks --- p.50
Chapter V. --- CONCLUSION
Summary --- p.53
Recommendations for Further Study --- p.55
APPENDIX --- p.57
BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.63
Cheng, Yi-Ching, und 鄭宜青. „The Comparison Study of Service Failure and Service Recovery Between Domestic and Japanese Series Department Stores in Taiwan─Take Kaohsiung As an Example“. Thesis, 2003. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/56803310125580913512.
Der volle Inhalt der Quelle朝陽科技大學
企業管理系碩士班
91
In the recent year, the economic development of Taiwan is striding toward the service industry as the predominance of the modern era, the economic independence of the female consumers and many elements such as to carry out the two days off from the weekend, have led to the demand of the citizen for the high quality and comfortable shopping provided by the department stores, and the needs of the places for leisure activities, to increase by days. In the severe competition of the modern day environment, in order for those in the industry to stand out, one would need to devote to maintain the customer relationship. The customer complaint for the enterprise consists of direct and indirect influence; how to effectively handle customer complaint, to elevate the degree of loyalty for the long-term customer, is an important element that cannot be overlooked by the general merchandise industry. The purpose of this research, is to conduct an area partition between the domestic department stores and the Japanese series department stores, and to adjust the phases for the customer complaint reason, the complaint behavior and handling of the complaint, and through analyzing the variable phases of the relation between cause and effect and the influence of the overall customer satisfaction, in order to further understanding the customers and the people of industry of the department stores. Through the research of the discussion for the actual proves, the descriptive conclusion for this research is as followed: 1. The customer complaint reasons for complaint behavior, the customer complaint behavior for handling complaint, the handling of the customer complaint for the overall customer satisfaction, and the customer complaint reason for the overall customer satisfaction, all have noticeable of positive relationship. 2. The domestic department stores and the Japanese series of department stores have the noticeable difference for the customer complaint reason, but the customer complaint behavior and the method of handling complaints do not have noticeable differences. 3. After the complaint happened, the method of handling the complaint by the department stores, for the overall customer satisfaction, the Japanese series of department stores have advantage over the domestic department stores.
Rea, William S. „The application of atheoretical regression trees to problems in time series analysis : a thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Canterbury /“. 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/1715.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleVieira, Adriana Maria da Silva. „Modelação de admissões e internamentos na urgência do Hospital de Braga“. Master's thesis, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1822/42920.
Der volle Inhalt der QuelleEste estudo teve como objetivos, através da modelação de padrões e tendências, desenvolver modelos que permitissem prever, tanto o número de pacientes admitidos diariamente nos três serviços de urgência (geral, obstétrico e pediátrico), como o número de pacientes internados via urgência, no Hospital de Braga, em Portugal. Para tal foram usadas técnicas de regressão linear e de Poisson, respetivamente, bem como análise de séries temporais. Recorrendo ao uso de variáveis sazonais, meteorológicas, ambientais e epidemiológicas, tentou encontrar-se equações matemáticas que permitissem a previsão futura do número de admissões em ambos os serviços de urgência e internamento. O uso de variáveis que não as sazonais revelou-se de pouco valor preditivo, apesar de existirem variáveis estatisticamente signi cativas. Além disso, para o hospital é mais simples utilizar apenas dados internos ou do conhecimento geral. Assim, foi decidida a utilização de apenas variáveis sazonais, sendo estas o dia da semana, o mês do ano e os feriados. Adicionalmente utilizou-se também a variável t que representa o tempo, em dias, decorrido desde 1 de janeiro de 2012. No caso das admissões no serviço de urgência, estas foram modeladas recorrendo a técnicas de regressão linear múltipla, tendo-se veri cado correlação temporal nos resíduos de cada modelo, sendo o número de admissões de um determinado dia correlacionadas com as dos 7 dias anteriores no caso da urgência geral, e com as dos 8 dias anteriores no caso de ambas urgências, obstétrica e pediátrica. Por outro lado, no caso das admissões no serviço de internamento via urgência, a modelação foi feita com recurso à regressão de Poisson, não se veri cando a existência de qualquer tipo de correlação temporal. Neste caso, também não se registou qualquer evidência de que os feriados estejam relacionados com o número de internamentos. Toda a modelação foi feita com recurso ao software R versão 3.2.2., (2015-08-14).
This study aims, trough patterns and trend modelling, to develop models that allows to predict the number of patients that visit, on a daily basis, the three emergency departments (general, obstetric and pediatric), as well as, the number of hospitalized patients, at Braga's Hospital, Portugal. For such, were used, respectively, linear and Poisson regression, as well as, time series analysis. Using calendar, meteorological, environmental and epidemiological variables, we tried to get mathematical equations that allows to forecast the future number of admissions, both in emergency and hospitalization services. The use of other variables than the calendar ones proved to have little predictive value, despite existing statistically signi cant variables. Furthermore, is simpler for the hospital use only internal data or general knowledge. Thus, it was decided to use only calendar variables, being these the day of the week, the month of the year and holidays. Additionally, we used the variable t, representing the elapsed time, in days, since January 1, 2012. In the case of emergency department admissions, these were modeled using multiple linear regression techniques, having been veri ed temporal correlation in the residuals of each model, being the number of admissions for a given day correlated with the previous 7 days in case of general emergency, and with the previous 8 days for both emergency, obstetric and pediatric. On the other hand, in the hospitalization admission case, modeling was done resorting to the Poisson regression, not having been veri ed the existence of any type of temporal correlation. In this case, it was also not registered any evidence that the holidays are related to the number of admissions. All modeling was performed with R software, version 3.2.2., (2015-08-14).