Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Sea ice advance“

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Zeitschriftenartikel zum Thema "Sea ice advance"

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Dial, Roman J., Colin T. Maher, Rebecca E. Hewitt, Amy M. Wockenfuss, Russell E. Wong, Daniel J. Crawford, Madeline G. Zietlow und Patrick F. Sullivan. „Arctic sea ice retreat fuels boreal forest advance“. Science 383, Nr. 6685 (23.02.2024): 877–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.adh2339.

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Climate-induced northward advance of boreal forest is expected to lessen albedo, alter carbon stocks, and replace tundra, but where and when this advance will occur remains largely unknown. Using data from 19 sites across 22 degrees of longitude along the tree line of northern Alaska, we show a stronger temporal correlation of tree ring growth with open water uncovered by retreating Arctic sea ice than with air temperature. Spatially, our results suggest that tree growth, recruitment, and range expansion are causally linked to open water through associated warmer temperatures, deeper snowpacks, and improved nutrient availability. We apply a meta-analysis to 82 circumarctic sites, finding that proportionally more tree lines have advanced where proximal to ongoing sea ice loss. Taken together, these findings underpin how and where changing sea ice conditions facilitate high-latitude forest advance.
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Stern, Harry L., und Kristin L. Laidre. „Sea-ice indicators of polar bear habitat“. Cryosphere 10, Nr. 5 (14.09.2016): 2027–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2027-2016.

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Abstract. Nineteen subpopulations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are found throughout the circumpolar Arctic, and in all regions they depend on sea ice as a platform for traveling, hunting, and breeding. Therefore polar bear phenology – the cycle of biological events – is linked to the timing of sea-ice retreat in spring and advance in fall. We analyzed the dates of sea-ice retreat and advance in all 19 polar bear subpopulation regions from 1979 to 2014, using daily sea-ice concentration data from satellite passive microwave instruments. We define the dates of sea-ice retreat and advance in a region as the dates when the area of sea ice drops below a certain threshold (retreat) on its way to the summer minimum or rises above the threshold (advance) on its way to the winter maximum. The threshold is chosen to be halfway between the historical (1979–2014) mean September and mean March sea-ice areas. In all 19 regions there is a trend toward earlier sea-ice retreat and later sea-ice advance. Trends generally range from −3 to −9 days decade−1 in spring and from +3 to +9 days decade−1 in fall, with larger trends in the Barents Sea and central Arctic Basin. The trends are not sensitive to the threshold. We also calculated the number of days per year that the sea-ice area exceeded the threshold (termed ice-covered days) and the average sea-ice concentration from 1 June through 31 October. The number of ice-covered days is declining in all regions at the rate of −7 to −19 days decade−1, with larger trends in the Barents Sea and central Arctic Basin. The June–October sea-ice concentration is declining in all regions at rates ranging from −1 to −9 percent decade−1. These sea-ice metrics (or indicators of habitat change) were designed to be useful for management agencies and for comparative purposes among subpopulations. We recommend that the National Climate Assessment include the timing of sea-ice retreat and advance in future reports.
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Post, Eric, Jeffrey Kerby, Christian Pedersen und Heidi Steltzer. „Highly individualistic rates of plant phenological advance associated with arctic sea ice dynamics“. Biology Letters 12, Nr. 12 (Dezember 2016): 20160332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0332.

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We analysed 12 years of species-specific emergence dates of plants at a Low-Arctic site near Kangerlussuaq, Greenland to investigate associations with sea ice dynamics, a potential contributor to local temperature variation in near-coastal tundra. Species displayed highly variable rates of phenological advance, from a maximum of −2.55 ± 0.17 and −2.93 ± 0.51 d yr −1 among a graminoid and forb, respectively, to a minimum of −0.55 ± 0.19 d yr −1 or no advance at all in the two deciduous shrub species. Monthly Arctic-wide sea ice extent was a significant predictor of emergence timing in 10 of 14 species. Despite variation in rates of advance among species, these rates were generally greatest in the earliest emerging species, for which monthly sea ice extent was also the primary predictor of emergence. Variation among species in rates of phenological advance reshuffled the phenological community, with deciduous shrubs leafing out progressively later relative to forbs and graminoids. Because early species advanced more rapidly than late species, and because rates of advance were greatest in species for which emergence phenology was associated with sea ice dynamics, accelerating sea ice decline may contribute to further divergence between early- and late-emerging species in this community.
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Nakanowatari, Takuya, Jun Inoue, Jinlun Zhang, Eiji Watanabe und Hiroshi Kuroda. „A New Norm for Seasonal Sea Ice Advance Predictability in the Chukchi Sea: Rising Influence of Ocean Heat Advection“. Journal of Climate 35, Nr. 9 (01.05.2022): 2723–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0425.1.

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Abstract Predictability of seasonal sea ice advance in the Chukchi Sea has been investigated in the context of ocean heat transport from the Bering Strait; however, the underlying physical processes have yet to be fully clarified. Using the Pan-Arctic Ice–Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) reanalysis product (1979–2016), we examined seasonal predictability of sea ice advance in early winter (November–December) and its source using canonical correlation analysis. It was found that 2-month leading (September–October) surface heat flux and ocean heat advection is the major predictor for interannual variability of sea ice advance. Surface heat flux is related to the atmospheric cooling process, which has influenced sea ice area in the southeastern Chukchi Sea particularly in the 1980s and 1990s. Anomalous surface heat flux is induced by strong northeasterly winds related to the east Pacific/North Pacific teleconnection pattern. Ocean heat advection, which is related to fluctuation of volume transport in the Bering Strait, leads to decrease in the sea ice area in the northwestern Chukchi Sea. Diagnostic analysis revealed that interannual variability of the Bering Strait volume transport is governed by arrested topographic waves (ATWs) forced by southeasterly wind stress along the shelf of the East Siberian Sea. The contribution of ocean heat flux to sea ice advance has increased since the 2000s; therefore, it is suggested that the major factor influencing interannual variability of sea ice advance in early winter has shifted from atmospheric cooling to ocean heat advection processes. Significance Statement Predictability of sea ice advance in the marginal Arctic seas in early winter is a crucial issue regarding future projections of the midlatitude winter climate and marine ecosystem. This study examined seasonal predictability of sea ice advance in the Chukchi Sea in early winter using a statistical technique and historical model simulation data. We identified that atmospheric cooling and ocean heat transport are the two main predictors of sea ice advance, and that the impact of the latter has become amplified since the 2000s. Our new finding suggests that the precise information on wind-driven ocean currents and temperatures is crucial for the skillful prediction of interannual variability of sea ice advance under present and future climatic regimes.
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Schroeter, Serena, Will Hobbs und Nathaniel L. Bindoff. „Interactions between Antarctic sea ice and large-scale atmospheric modes in CMIP5 models“. Cryosphere 11, Nr. 2 (24.03.2017): 789–803. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-789-2017.

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Abstract. The response of Antarctic sea ice to large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability varies according to sea ice sector and season. In this study, interannual atmosphere–sea ice interactions were explored using observations and reanalysis data, and compared with simulated interactions by models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulated relationships between atmospheric variability and sea ice variability generally reproduced the observed relationships, though more closely during the season of sea ice advance than the season of sea ice retreat. Atmospheric influence on sea ice is known to be strongest during advance, and it appears that models are able to capture the dominance of the atmosphere during advance. Simulations of ocean–atmosphere–sea ice interactions during retreat, however, require further investigation. A large proportion of model ensemble members overestimated the relative importance of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) compared with other modes of high southern latitude climate, while the influence of tropical forcing was underestimated. This result emerged particularly strongly during the season of sea ice retreat. The zonal patterns of the SAM in many models and its exaggerated influence on sea ice overwhelm the comparatively underestimated meridional influence, suggesting that simulated sea ice variability would become more zonally symmetric as a result. Across the seasons of sea ice advance and retreat, three of the five sectors did not reveal a strong relationship with a pattern of large-scale atmospheric variability in one or both seasons, indicating that sea ice in these sectors may be influenced more strongly by atmospheric variability unexplained by the major atmospheric modes, or by heat exchange in the ocean.
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Holland, Marika M., und Donald Perovich. „Sea Ice Summer Camp: Bringing Together Sea Ice Modelers and Observers to Advance Polar Science“. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 98, Nr. 10 (01.10.2017): 2057–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-16-0229.1.

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Abstract Arctic sea ice has undergone significant change with large reductions in thickness and areal extent over the historical record. Numerical models project sea ice loss to continue for the foreseeable future, with the possibility of September ice-free conditions later this century. Understanding the mechanisms behind ice loss and its consequences for the larger Arctic and global systems is important if we are to anticipate and plan for the future. Meeting this challenge requires the collective and collaborative insights of scientists investigating the system from numerous perspectives. One impediment to progress has been a disconnect between the observational and modeling research communities. Advancing the science requires enhanced integration between these communities and more collaborative approaches to understanding Arctic sea ice loss. This paper discusses a successful effort to further these aims: a weeklong sea ice summer camp held in Barrow, Alaska (now known as Utqiaġvik), in May 2016. The camp brought together 25 participants who were a heterogeneous mix of observers and modelers from 13 different institutions at career stages from graduate students to senior researchers. The summer camp provided an accelerated program on sea ice observations and models and also fostered future collaborative interdisciplinary activities. A dialogue with Barrow community members was initiated in order to further understand the local consequences of Arctic sea ice loss. The discussion herein describes lessons learned from this activity and paths forward to advance the understanding and prediction of Arctic climate change.
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Ma¨a¨tta¨nen, Mauri. „Advance in Ice Mechanics in Finland“. Applied Mechanics Reviews 40, Nr. 9 (01.09.1987): 1200–1207. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.3149551.

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In Finland, 110 years of winter navigation has been a natural initiator of ice mechanics research. It has brought with it sea ice monitoring and statistics, ice forecasting, the testing of mechanical properties, ship and icebreaker model testing and full-scale trials, ice resistant aids-to-navigation, and theoretical modelling and numerical simulations. Lately, a lot of ice mechanics research has been devoted to arctic offshore applications. A summary of the major developments is given in this paper.
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Chu, P. C. „Air-Ice-Ocean Feedback Mechanisms and Ice Oscillation on Millennial Time Scales“. Annals of Glaciology 14 (1990): 28–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/s026030550000820x.

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Air-ice-ocean feedback mechanisms, which are not conventionally incorporated within either climate or glacial models, are investigated to illustrate their potential role in generating ice advance/retreat on the time scale of 103–104 years; i.e. for examining the internal causes for the ice oscillation.Three main feedback loops are found from a coupled air-ice-ocean model developed in this paper: (a) ice advance → lower air temperature → ice freezing → ice advance; and (b) ice advance → higher ocean temperature → ice melting → ice retreat; (c) ice advance/retreat → modification of evaporation rate → change of ice accumulation rate and sea-level height → ice advance/retreat. The relative strength of the three feedback mechanisms determines the characteristics of the modes: growing or decaying, oscillatory or non-oscillatory. The solutions show the generation of growing oscillatory modes with the time scale of 103–104 years in certain parameter ranges.
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Chu, P. C. „Air-Ice-Ocean Feedback Mechanisms and Ice Oscillation on Millennial Time Scales“. Annals of Glaciology 14 (1990): 28–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s026030550000820x.

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Air-ice-ocean feedback mechanisms, which are not conventionally incorporated within either climate or glacial models, are investigated to illustrate their potential role in generating ice advance/retreat on the time scale of 103–104 years; i.e. for examining the internal causes for the ice oscillation. Three main feedback loops are found from a coupled air-ice-ocean model developed in this paper: (a) ice advance → lower air temperature → ice freezing → ice advance; and (b) ice advance → higher ocean temperature → ice melting → ice retreat; (c) ice advance/retreat → modification of evaporation rate → change of ice accumulation rate and sea-level height → ice advance/retreat. The relative strength of the three feedback mechanisms determines the characteristics of the modes: growing or decaying, oscillatory or non-oscillatory. The solutions show the generation of growing oscillatory modes with the time scale of 103–104 years in certain parameter ranges.
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Lebrun, Marion, Martin Vancoppenolle, Gurvan Madec und François Massonnet. „Arctic sea-ice-free season projected to extend into autumn“. Cryosphere 13, Nr. 1 (10.01.2019): 79–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-79-2019.

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Abstract. The recent Arctic sea ice reduction comes with an increase in the ice-free season duration, with comparable contributions of earlier ice retreat and later advance. CMIP5 models all project that the trend towards later advance should progressively exceed and ultimately double the trend towards earlier retreat, causing the ice-free season to shift into autumn. We show that such a shift is a basic feature of the thermodynamic response of seasonal ice to warming. The detailed analysis of an idealised thermodynamic ice–ocean model stresses the role of two seasonal amplifying feedbacks. The summer feedback generates a 1.6-day-later advance in response to a 1-day-earlier retreat. The underlying physics are the property of the upper ocean to absorb solar radiation more efficiently than it can release heat right before ice advance. The winter feedback is comparatively weak, prompting a 0.3-day-earlier retreat in response to a 1-day shift towards later advance. This is because a shorter growth season implies thinner ice, which subsequently melts away faster. However, the winter feedback is dampened by the relatively long ice growth period and by the inverse relationship between ice growth rate and thickness. At inter-annual timescales, the thermodynamic response of ice seasonality to warming is obscured by inter-annual variability. Nevertheless, in the long term, because all feedback mechanisms relate to basic and stable elements of the Arctic climate system, there is little inter-model uncertainty on the projected long-term shift into autumn of the ice-free season.
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Dissertationen zum Thema "Sea ice advance"

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Himmich, Kenza. „Antarctic sea ice : a seasonal perspective“. Electronic Thesis or Diss., Sorbonne université, 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024SORUS105.

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La banquise antarctique a subi une réduction brutale en 2016, après plus de quatre décennies d'une lente augmentation. Une telle évolution pourrait avoir de larges conséquences, compte tenu de l'importance de la banquise antarctique pour le climat, l'océan et l'écosystème marin polaire local. Pourtant, les modèles climatiques ne parviennent pas à reproduire les changements observés, laissant planer une incertitude considérable quant à leur origine et à leurs conséquences. Cette déficience des modèles est en partie due à une mauvaise compréhension des processus fondamentaux liés à la banquise antarctique. Dans cette thèse, nous contribuons à faire progresser cette compréhension, en adoptant une perspective saisonnière. Les processus moteurs de l'avancée et du retrait saisonniers de la banquise sont explorés. En particulier, les rôles possibles d'un préconditionnement thermodynamique, des flux de chaleur air-glace-mer et de la dynamique de la banquise sont étudiés. Nous montrons, dans l'état moyen, que les dates d'avancée et de retrait de la banquise sont largement contrôlées par des processus thermodynamiques, à travers un préconditionnement respectif du contenu thermique de la couche de mélange et de l'épaisseur de la banquise. Les variations des flux de chaleur air-glace-mer et la dynamique de la banquise ont une importance significative mais secondaire. Ces conclusions sont étayées par un modèle thermodynamique simple, des analyses d'observations et un modèle glace-océan (NEMO). Nous montrons également que les changements récents dans la saisonnalité de la banquise sont principalement dus à des processus thermodynamiques, comme pour l'état moyen. La réduction de la banquise antarctique suivant l'année 2016 coïncide avec un recul plus précoce et une avancée plus tardive de la banquise, à l'échelle quasi-circompolaire. Notre analyse relie ces changements à une glace plus fine en hiver, une fonte plus rapide au printemps et un océan de surface plus chaud en été, en accord avec les processus de la rétroaction glace-albédo. L'empreinte circumpolaire de ces changements leur suggère une cause océanique
Antarctic sea ice has undergone an abrupt reduction in 2016, following more than four decades of a slow increase. This could have wide-ranging consequences given the importance of Antarctic sea ice for climate, ocean, and local ecosystem. Yet, climate models fail to capture this observed evolution, leaving considerable uncertainty regarding its origin, impacts and future evolution. Models failure relates, but not only, to a poor understanding of fundamental Antarctic sea ice processes. In this thesis, we contribute to progress understanding of Antarctic sea ice, adopting a seasonal perspective. We investigate the drivers of seasonal sea ice edge advance and retreat, analyzing the roles of thermodynamic preconditioning, air-ice-sea heat fluxes and sea ice dynamics. We show that, in the mean state, timings of ice edge advance and retreat are largely controlled by thermodynamics, via preconditioning from mixed layer heat content and sea ice thickness, respectively. Variations in air-ice-sea heat fluxes and sea ice dynamics have a significant but secondary importance. This conclusion is supported by a simple thermodynamic model, observational analyses and the NEMO ice-ocean model. We also show that recent changes in sea ice seasonality are mainly driven by thermodynamics, similar to the mean state. The reduction in Antarctic sea ice following 2016 coincides with nearly circumpolar earlier retreat and later advance of the ice edge. Our analysis links these changes to thinner ice in winter, faster melt in spring and warmer upper ocean in summer, in line with ice-albedo feedback processes. Based on the circumpolar footprint of these changes, we argue that they likely have an oceanic origin
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Reeves, Steven Joseph. „Sea Ice Mapping Using Enhanced Resolution Advanced Scatterometer Images“. BYU ScholarsArchive, 2012. https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/etd/3484.

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Sea ice is of great interest due to its effect on the global climate, the Earth's ecosystem, and human activities. Microwave remote sensing has proven to be an effective way to measure many of the characteristics of sea ice. In particular, several algorithms map the daily sea ice extent using a variety of instruments. Enhanced resolution images generated from the Scatterometer Image Reconstruction (SIR) algorithm can be used to generate a high resolution ice extent map. Previous algorithms using SIR images were developed for scatterometers which are no longer operational. The Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) is a newer scatterometer which has different characteristics from the earlier scatterometers. The previous algorithms do not perform as well when applied to ASCAT. This thesis presents a new algorithm for ASCAT developed to discriminate sea ice from the open ocean and create daily maps of the ice extent. It is developed from previous algorithms used on earlier scatterometers. The algorithm uses an iterative Bayes decision rule to classify pixels as sea ice or ocean. Digital image processing techniques are used to reduce misclassifications. The ice maps from the new algorithm are compared with the NASA Team sea ice concentration maps from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E). The comparisons include: difference in area, distance between ice edges, number of missed and false detections. The new ice maps are also compared with the Remund-Long algorithm for the QuikSCAT satellite using the same metrics. The ice edge is verified with high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. The new ice maps perform similarly to previous ice mapping algorithms for scatterometers.
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Nasonova, Sasha. „Estimating Arctic sea ice melt pond fraction and assessing ice type separability during advanced melt“. Thesis, Remote Sensing, 2017. https://dspace.library.uvic.ca//handle/1828/9313.

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Arctic sea ice is rapidly declining in extent, thickness, volume and age, with the majority of the decline in extent observed at the end of the melt season. Advanced melt is a thermodynamic regime and is characterized by the formation of melt ponds on the sea ice surface, which have a lower surface albedo (0.2-0.4) than the surrounding ice (0.5-0.7) allowing more shortwave radiation to enter the system. The loss of multiyear ice (MYI) may have a profound impact on the energy balance of the system because melt ponds on first-year ice (FYI) comprise up to 70% of the ice surface during advanced melt, compared to 40% on MYI. Despite the importance of advanced melt to the ocean-sea ice-atmosphere system, advanced melt and the extent to which winter conditions influence it remain poorly understood due to the highly dynamic nature of melt pond formation and evolution, and a lack of reliable observations during this time. In order to establish quantitative links between winter and subsequent advanced melt conditions, and assess the effects of scale and choice of aggregation features on the relationships, three data aggregation approaches at varied spatial scales were used to compare high resolution satellite GeoEye-1 optical images of melt pond covered sea ice to winter airborne laser scanner surface roughness and electromagnetic induction sea ice thickness measurements. The findings indicate that winter sea ice thickness has a strong association with melt pond fraction (fp) for FYI and MYI. FYI winter surface roughness is correlated with fp, whereas for MYI no association with fp was found. Satellite-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data are heavily relied upon for sea ice observation; however, during advanced melt the reliability of observations is reduced. In preparation for the upcoming launch of the RADARSAT Constellation Mission (RCM), the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistical test was used to assess the ability of simulated RCM parameters and grey level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) derived texture features to discriminate between major ice types during winter and advanced melt, with a focus on advanced melt. RCM parameters with highest discrimination ability in conjunction with optimal GLCM texture features were used as input parameters for Support Vector Machine (SVM) supervised classifications. The results indicate that steep incidence angle RCM parameters show promise for distinguishing between FYI and MYI during advanced melt with an overall classification accuracy of 77.06%. The addition of GLCM texture parameters improved accuracy to 85.91%. This thesis provides valuable contributions to the growing body of literature on fp parameterization and SAR ice type discrimination during advanced melt.
Graduate
2019-03-21
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Dimitriou, David S. „Comparison of advanced Arctic Ocean model sea ice fields to satellite derived measurements“. Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 1998. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA351909.

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Thesis (M.S. in Meteorology and Physical Oceanography) Naval Postgraduate School, September 1998.
Thesis advisors, Yuxia Zhang, Albert J. Semtner. "September 1998."-Cover. Includes bibliographical references (p. 127-131). Also available online.
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Bücher zum Thema "Sea ice advance"

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König, Christine. Eisfernerkundung mit "NOAA-advanced very high resolution radiometer" (AVHRR) und "synthetic aperture radar" (SAR). Hamburg: Bundesamt für Seeschiffahrt und Hydrographie, 1995.

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1962-, Tsatsoulis C., und Kwok R. 1955-, Hrsg. Analysis of SAR data of the polar oceans: Recent advances. Berlin: Springer, 1998.

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Dimitriou, David S. Comparison of advanced Arctic Ocean model sea ice fields to satellite derived measurements. Monterey, Calif: Naval Postgraduate School, 1998.

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Emery, William. Sea ice motions in the central Arctic ice central arctic pack ice as inferred from AVHRR imagery: Annual progress report to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. [Washington, DC: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1993.

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A, Maslanik James, Fowler Charles und United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration., Hrsg. Sea ice motions in the central Arctic ice central arctic pack ice as inferred from AVHRR imagery: Final progress report to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. [Washington, DC]: The Administration, 1995.

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Hapgood, Charles H. Maps of the ancient sea kings: Evidence of advanced civilization in the ice age. London: Souvenir, 2001.

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Abdollah, Mohd Fadzli Bin, Hilmi Amiruddin, Amrik Singh Phuman Singh, Fudhail Abdul Munir und Asriana Ibrahim, Hrsg. Proceedings of the 7th International Conference and Exhibition on Sustainable Energy and Advanced Materials (ICE-SEAM 2021), Melaka, Malaysia. Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-3179-6.

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Sandler, Corey. Official Sega Genesis and Game Gear strategies, 3RD Edition. New York: Bantam Books, 1992.

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Sandler, Corey. Official Sega Genesis and Game Gear strategies, 2ND Edition. Toronto: Bantam Books, 1991.

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Ice routes: The application of advanced technologies to the routing of ships through sea ice. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2000.

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Buchteile zum Thema "Sea ice advance"

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Armand, Leanne, Alexander Ferry und Amy Leventer. „Advances in palaeo sea ice estimation“. In Sea Ice, 600–629. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118778371.ch26.

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Melling, Humfrey. „Sea-Ice Observation: Advances and Challenges“. In Arctic Climate Change, 27–115. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-2027-5_3.

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Milne, Glenn A. „Recent advances in predicting glaciation-induced sea-level changes and their impact on model applications“. In Ice Sheets, Sea Level and the Dynamic Earth, 157–76. Washington, D. C.: American Geophysical Union, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/gd029p0157.

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Docquier, David, Laura Perichon und Frank Pattyn. „Representing Grounding Line Dynamics in Numerical Ice Sheet Models: Recent Advances and Outlook“. In The Earth's Cryosphere and Sea Level Change, 417–35. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-2063-3_8.

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Kondrashov, Dmitri, Mickaël D. Chekroun, Xiaojun Yuan und Michael Ghil. „Data-Adaptive Harmonic Decomposition and Stochastic Modeling of Arctic Sea Ice“. In Advances in Nonlinear Geosciences, 179–205. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-58895-7_10.

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Dierssen, Heidi M., und Shungudzemwoyo P. Garaba. „Bright Oceans: Spectral Differentiation of Whitecaps, Sea Ice, Plastics, and Other Flotsam“. In Recent Advances in the Study of Oceanic Whitecaps, 197–208. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36371-0_13.

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Panicker, Dency V., Bhasha Vachharajani und D. Ram Rajak. „Evolution of Sea Ice Thickness Over Various Seas of the Arctic Region for the Years 2012–13 and 2018–19“. In Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, 241–52. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-9953-8_21.

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Zamshin, Viktor V., und Vladislav A. Shliupikov. „Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Concentration Analysis Based on the NOAA Long-Term Satellite and Sea-Truth Data in the Atlantic Antarctic“. In Advances in Polar Ecology, 143–55. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-78927-5_10.

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Pinninti, Ramakrishna, Nirmallya Dey, S. K. Abdul Alim und Pankaj Pratap Singh. „Analysis and Prediction of Sea Ice Extent Using Statistical and Deep Learning Approach“. In Advances in IoT and Security with Computational Intelligence, 277–86. Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-5085-0_27.

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Khuntia, S., und S. Mohapatra. „Interaction of Oblique Waves by Base Distortion on a Permeable Bed in an Ice-Covered Sea“. In Advances in Fluid Dynamics, 315–26. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4308-1_25.

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Konferenzberichte zum Thema "Sea ice advance"

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Howell, Carl, Martin Richard, Joshua Barnes und Tony King. „Short-Term Operational Sea Ice Forecasting for Arctic Shipping“. In ASME 2015 34th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2015-42085.

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The Arctic sea ice is declining in extent, volume and thickness. With this decline comes an increased interest in the two main Arctic shipping routes: Canada’s Northwest Passage (NWP) and Russian Northern Sea Route (NSR). The NWP is the most direct route between Asia and the East coast of North America. Some routes are up to 40% shorter than those using the Suez Canal. With commercial and contractual implications, Arctic shipping route access needs to be predictable with sufficient lead time to allow optimization. This paper presents a methodology for forecasting the timing and length of the open-water season (by determining freeze-up and break-up dates) on regional scales at key locations in the NWP along with examples of applications. A suite of statistical models were developed to forecast the timing and length of the open-water season at key locations within the NWP, using a multi-node based quadratic discriminant (QD) approach. Forecasts are feasible up to four weeks in advance. Ensembles of QD models were built for key regions using a feature selection method to select an optimized set of input parameters to better discriminate between two states (i.e., ice or open-water). The set of available features used included observed and modeled environmental, oceanographic and atmospheric parameters. Results of models with a 28-day forecast horizon show that over 59% of predictions for break-up and 79% of predictions for freeze-up fall within a ±4-day range, which is the error on the reference dates derived from the weekly CIS ice charts.
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Ge, Yuhui, Shifeng Ding, Renwei Liu und Aimin Wang. „Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Ice Pressure Loads Under Turning Operations in Level Ice“. In ASME 2023 42nd International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2023-104305.

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Abstract There is variability in the degree of danger encountered by different hull areas when turning in level ice, so predicting the trend of load characteristics with turning angle in advance can improve navigation safety. In this paper, we use a well-developed numerical simulation method, A more reasonable turning condition was selected, and the Weibull distribution is used to describe the numerical results. The collision probability of ice pressure along the hull area under different turning angles are analyzed by probabilistic statistical methods, and the trend of ice pressure peak with angle at typical positions is studied to reveal the intrinsic relationship between ice pressure load characteristics and turning angles.The results showed that the collision mainly occurred in the inner midship at the beginning of the turn, and gradually shifted to the bow and the shoulder area as the turning angle increased; when the turning angle tended to be horizontal or vertical with the sea ice, the collision probability in the outer midship increased.
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Maitland, Clay. „Lessons and Memories of the Titanic, (1912-2012)“. In SNAME 10th International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice. SNAME, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.5957/icetech-2012-m-tt-1.

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The historical legacy of the TITANIC defies a brief manuscript of 20- plus pages. Much better, and more detailed work has been done to give the subject a “modern” context, notably by the United States Coast Guard in the Summer 2012 issue of Proceedings of the Marine Safety and Security Council, vol.69, no. 2, from which the following remarks draw heavily. The night of April 14, 1912 – the famous “night to remember,” chosen by Walter Lord as the title of his excellent history – presents us with many questions that will probably never be answered. Most of these are technical: the “what ifs” that, in one form or another, haunt us after, but usually not before, a disaster at sea. The importance of safety at sea is shown by the pictures available since 1985, showing the broken fragments of wreckage lying on the ocean floor south of Cape Race. Since the wreckage was located, we can see the pairs of empty shoes and boots that mark where human remains once lay. The TITANIC facts are familiar: at 11:40 P.M. on April 14, 1912, she collided with an iceberg. Two hours and 40 minutes later, the pride of the White Star Line began her two-mile plunge to the bottom of the North Atlantic. Of the 2,224 passengers and crew aboard, only 710 survived. While there have been sea disasters that produced greater loss of life, the sinking of TITANIC is probably the most famous and far-reaching maritime disaster in history. While the loss of TITANIC has been described as “perhaps the most documented and least commonly understood marine casualty in maritime history”, a positive result of the TITANIC disaster, and of course many other tragedies at sea that have occurred since, has been to establish a formal protocol of goals and procedures for analysis and investigation. These goals, from the point of view of the investigator/flag state, other governments, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), and other regulators, is the identification of unsafe conditions, in order to identify them in advance of future disasters. Today, responsible regimes charged with administration of the safety of life at sea are said to follow a philosophy of prevention first and, then, response. The 1985 discovery of the wreck of the TITANIC sparked a new round of forensic investigation. The bow section was found largely intact with the stern section in hundreds of pieces approximately 2,000 feet away. The realization that TITANIC’s hull had broken at some point during the sinking added a new understanding of the already famous disaster. The discovery of the wreck also provided new forensic evidence in the form of recovered artifacts and detailed surveys. It was these new clues and advances in computer-driven engineering tools that gave rise to a revision of previously held beliefs. The significance of the TITANIC, and the events that led to such a large loss of life, remain with us today.
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Bryg, David J., George Mink und Link C. Jaw. „Combining Lead Functions and Logistic Regression for Predicting Failures on an Aircraft Engine“. In ASME Turbo Expo 2008: Power for Land, Sea, and Air. ASMEDC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/gt2008-50118.

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The increasing demand for performance and durability of advanced aerospace systems has increased the need for health management of these systems. Effective health management involves seamless integration of failure diagnostics, failure prediction, part life estimation, and maintenance logistics. These capabilities have only partially been implemented in current health management systems. Hence the effectiveness of current management systems has not achieved its potential. To achieve the goal of effective prognostic and health management (PHM), promising technologies from various disciplines must be integrated. One of these technologies is logistic regression. In this method, aircraft engine takeoff data is combined with control system fault information and by introducing lead times prior to the fault. Lead times of 1, 7, 14, and 30 days were analyzed using logistic regression on the difference from expected thermodynamic values. The resulting equations give probability of failure over time. An example using real engine data from GE-F414 engines to predict engine stall and anti-ice valve failures are presented. The results show good predictability of these events between a week and a month in advance. For example, for the event of an imminent anti-ice valve failure, the true-negative fraction was 99.6% and the positive-predictive value was 93.1%. This methodology can be combined with an engine health monitoring (EHM) system to provide prognostic failure predictions. Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were evaluated as an additional measure of the quality of the predictions. These ROC curves show that there is prognostic value with this approach. This methodology can be updated and refined with additional data. As the results get more refined, the reliability of the fleet can increase, costs can be reduced, and safety increased.
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Ehlers, Sören, Pentti Kujala, Brian Veitch, Faisal Khan und Jarno Vanhatalo. „Scenario Based Risk Management for Arctic Shipping and Operations“. In ASME 2014 33rd International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2014-23112.

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Arctic oil and gas explorations and Arctic shipping must ensure the safety and protection of this sensitive environment in spite of the challenging operational conditions. However, current regulations and assessment methods do not predict the associated risk level reliably. In other words, ships transiting ice-covered waters are not designed according to physical measures, such as accurate limit states under ice loading, but according to economic and empirical design measures. Similarly, offshore installations should be designed according to the accurate limit states, but the actual ice loads are uncertain so this is not possible at present. Risk-based design methodologies using first principal methods offer a way to advance safe operations and transport of natural resources within and out of the Arctic Sea. This paper introduces a holistic treatment of the design relevant features and their identification to improve safe Arctic operations and transport. The focus is on design relevant Arctic aspects related to extreme and accidental ice events. The approach includes estimating ice loads, including extreme load events, assessing structural consequences of the loading events, assessing associated potential environmental consequences, and establishing a risk based design framework for managing risks.
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Rodriguez, Luis, Juan Uribe, P. A. Munoz, Roberto Parrado und Nestor Sanabria. „Petroleum Exploration Using New Technologies in 3D Seismic Operations in Arctic Environment - North Slope Alaska“. In ASME 2018 37th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2018-78064.

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Oil exploration in arctic regions is a very complex activity taking place in a sensitive environment, highlighted by social, wildlife and extreme weather conditions restricting operations to a very limited time window based on the opening of the Tundra season regulations which assesse the quality of the ice and snow coverage over frozen tundra, lakes and seas. Thanks to new technologies, oil exploration in the arctic environment takes a great steps in 3D seismic acquisition methods passing from cable recording equipment and the dependence of sensor connectivity to a recording center and replacing this system with a very versatile system of wireless receivers units equipped with GPS positioning and time stamp recording and storing the seismic data “in situ”. This new technology has allowed a high unit count of light receivers to operate in extreme conditions, which in the past was practically impossible given the limitations of the logistical support to carry out this type of operations in remote and difficult access areas. Definitely this technological development has allowed Repsol to explore a larger surface area in a single winter season acquiring high resolution seismic data that allows obtaining high quality images with better geophysical attributes. Seismic sources have also undergone a notable evolution through the use of high productivity techniques of vibrating trucks moving from a set of multiple vibrators to a single vibrator emission getting up to date simultaneous source acquisitions which allows recording more information without waiting for a second set of vibrators or single vibroseis truck to start shaking to emit energy to the ground. The ability to vibrate at the same time with many sets of single vibrators allows operation on frozen sea either with grounded ice or vibrating on floating ice expanding the exploration boundary to the open sea zones. The new technology has made it possible for Repsol to improve the operational capability of the crew without increasing the number of people or increasing the logistical support required to operate in remote and difficult access areas. This technological advance has allowed the improvement of the quality of oil exploration using 3D seismic techniques reducing the price per recorded trace or per surface source, increasing the possibility to acquire larger surfaces and better seismic data in a single winter season window. More importantly, these technologies have allowed affordable oil exploration with a high respect for the communities, the wildlife and the environment.
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Foss, Greg, An Nguyen, Victor Ocaña und Patrick Heimbach. „Arctic Ocean-Sea Ice Interactions“. In PEARC '18: Practice and Experience in Advanced Research Computing. New York, NY, USA: ACM, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3219104.3229429.

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Samsel, Francesca, Greg Abram, Lauren Gant, Wilbert Weijer und Milena Veneziani. „Atmospheric Rivers: Changes in Arctic Sea Ice“. In PEARC '23: Practice and Experience in Advanced Research Computing. New York, NY, USA: ACM, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3569951.3603642.

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Bobby, Pradeep, und Desmond Power. „Advances in Satellite Technology for Ice Management“. In Offshore Technology Conference. OTC, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.4043/32591-ms.

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Abstract The need to monitor ice conditions has motivated the launch of several earth observation (EO) satellites and ice mapping applications are among the highest consumers of satellite data. However, oil and gas operations (O&G) in ice-prone (both sea ice and iceberg) environments have largely been using EO data for upstream, strategic reports on ice conditions. There are many recent and upcoming advances in EO technology that are already enabling satellites to be used for other critical operations and there is value in using satellites extensively for ice management. The remainder of this paper briefly describes these advances and their impact on detecting ice conditions to support oil and gas operations.
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Calla, OPN, Shruti Singhal, Shubhra Mathur, Amit Kumar und Kishan Lal Gadri. „Expected Arctic Sea Ice extent as on 2036“. In 2016 International Conference on Recent Advances and Innovations in Engineering (ICRAIE). IEEE, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icraie.2016.7939510.

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Berichte der Organisationen zum Thema "Sea ice advance"

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Ackley, S. F., T. Maksym und S. Stammerjohn. Wave-Ice and Air-Ice-Ocean Interaction During the Chukchi Sea Ice Edge Advance. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, September 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada601218.

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Guest, Peter S., Christopher W. Fairall und P. O. Persson. Office of Naval Research (ONR), Arctic and Global Prediction Program Department Research Initiative (DRI), Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics of the Emerging Arctic Ocean Quantifying the Role of Atmospheric Forcing in Ice Edge Retreat and Advance Including Wind-Wave Coupling. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, September 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada616467.

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Moeyaert, Mariola. Advanced Meta-Analysis. Instats Inc., 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.61700/ttn9i9ntp8uvj469.

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This seminar will introduce you to advanced meta-analytic methods. Commonly encountered meta-analytic topics and issues will be covered, including meta-regression models, methods for handling multiple effect sizes per study (i.e., dependent effect sizes), missing data, publication bias, meta-analysis SEM, and single-case experiments meta-analysis. During this seminar, participants will learn how to use RStudio to model these commonly encountered complexities. Hands-on exercises will be incorporated throughout the seminar. An official Instats certificate of completion is provided at the conclusion of the seminar. For European PhD students, each seminar offers 2 ECTS Equivalent points.
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Moeyaert, Mariola. Advanced Meta-Analysis. Instats Inc., 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.61700/k4me5g0k92l56469.

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This seminar will introduce you to advanced meta-analytic methods. Commonly encountered meta-analytic topics and issues will be covered, including meta-regression models, methods for handling multiple effect sizes per study (i.e., dependent effect sizes), missing data, publication bias, meta-analysis SEM, and single-case experiments meta-analysis. During this seminar, participants will learn how to use RStudio to model these commonly encountered complexities. Hands-on exercises will be incorporated throughout the seminar. An official Instats certificate of completion is provided at the conclusion of the seminar. For European PhD students, each seminar offers 2 ECTS Equivalent points.
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Miller, Gad, und Jeffrey F. Harper. Pollen fertility and the role of ROS and Ca signaling in heat stress tolerance. United States Department of Agriculture, Januar 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2013.7598150.bard.

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The long-term goal of this research is to understand how pollen cope with stress, and identify genes that can be manipulated in crop plants to improve reproductive success during heat stress. The specific aims were to: 1) Compare heat stress dependent changes in gene expression between wild type pollen, and mutants in which pollen are heat sensitive (cngc16) or heat tolerant (apx2-1). 2) Compare cngc16 and apx2 mutants for differences in heat-stress triggered changes in ROS, cNMP, and Ca²⁺ transients. 3) Expand a mutant screen for pollen with increased or decreased thermo-tolerance. These aims were designed to provide novel and fundamental advances to our understanding of stress tolerance in pollen reproductive development, and enable research aimed at improving crop plants to be more productive under conditions of heat stress. Background: Each year crop yields are severely impacted by a variety of stress conditions, including heat, cold, drought, hypoxia, and salt. Reproductive development in flowering plants is highly sensitive to hot or cold temperatures, with even a single hot day or cold night sometimes being fatal to reproductive success. In many plants, pollen tube development and fertilization is often the weakest link. Current speculation about global climate change is that most agricultural regions will experience more extreme environmental fluctuations. With the human food supply largely dependent on seeds, it is critical that we consider ways to improve stress tolerance during fertilization. The heat stress response (HSR) has been intensively studied in vegetative tissues, but is poorly understood during reproductive development. A general paradigm is that HS is accompanied by increased production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and induction of ROS-scavenging enzymes to protect cells from excess oxidative damage. The activation of the HSR has been linked to cytosolic Ca²⁺ signals, and transcriptional and translational responses, including the increased expression of heat shock proteins (HSPs) and antioxidative pathways. The focus of the proposed research was on two mutations, which have been discovered in a collaboration between the Harper and Miller labs, that either increase or decrease reproductive stress tolerance in a model plant, Arabidopsis thaliana (i.e., cngc16--cyclic nucleotide gated channel 16, apx2-1--ascorbate peroxidase 2,). Major conclusions, solutions, achievements. Using RNA-seq technology, the expression profiles of cngc16 and apx2 pollen grains were independently compared to wild type under favourable conditions and following HS. In comparison to a wild type HSR, there were 2,776 differences in the transcriptome response in cngc16 pollen, consistent with a model in which this heat-sensitive mutant fails to enact or maintain a normal wild-type HSR. In a comparison with apx2 pollen, there were 900 differences in the HSR. Some portion of these 900 differences might contribute to an improved HSR in apx2 pollen. Twenty-seven and 42 transcription factor changes, in cngc16 and apx2-1, respectively, were identified that could provide unique contributions to a pollen HSR. While we found that the functional HS-dependent reprogramming of the pollen transcriptome requires specific activity of CNGC16, we identified in apx2 specific activation of flavonol-biosynthesis pathway and auxin signalling that support a role in pollen thermotolerance. Results from this study have identified metabolic pathways and candidate genes of potential use in improving HS tolerance in pollen. Additionally, we developed new FACS-based methodology that can quantify the stress response for individual pollen in a high-throughput fashion. This technology is being adapted for biological screening of crop plant’s pollen to identify novel thermotolerance traits. Implications, both scientific and agricultural. This study has provided a reference data on the pollen HSR from a model plant, and supports a model that the HSR in pollen has many differences compared to vegetative cells. This provides an important foundation for understanding and improving the pollen HSR, and therefor contributes to the long-term goal of improving productivity in crop plants subjected to temperature stress conditions. A specific hypothesis that has emerged from this study is that pollen thermotolerance can be improved by increasing flavonol accumulation before or during a stress response. Efforts to test this hypothesis have been initiated, and if successful have the potential for application with major seed crops such as maize and rice.
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Ocampo-Gaviria, José Antonio, Roberto Steiner Sampedro, Mauricio Villamizar Villegas, Bibiana Taboada Arango, Jaime Jaramillo Vallejo, Olga Lucia Acosta-Navarro und Leonardo Villar Gómez. Report of the Board of Directors to the Congress of Colombia - March 2023. Banco de la República de Colombia, Juni 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-jun-dir-con-rep-eng.03-2023.

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Banco de la República is celebrating its 100th anniversary in 2023. This is a very significant anniversary and one that provides an opportunity to highlight the contribution the Bank has made to the country’s development. Its track record as guarantor of monetary stability has established it as the one independent state institution that generates the greatest confidence among Colombians due to its transparency, management capabilities, and effective compliance with the central banking and cultural responsibilities entrusted to it by the Constitution and the Law. On a date as important as this, the Board of Directors of Banco de la República (BDBR) pays tribute to the generations of governors and officers whose commitment and dedication have contributed to the growth of this institution.1 Banco de la República’s mandate was confirmed in the National Constitutional Assembly of 1991 where the citizens had the opportunity to elect the seventy people who would have the task of drafting a new constitution. The leaders of the three political movements with the most votes were elected as chairs to the Assembly, and this tripartite presidency reflected the plurality and the need for consensus among the different political groups to move the reform forward. Among the issues considered, the National Constitutional Assembly gave special importance to monetary stability. That is why they decided to include central banking and to provide Banco de la República with the necessary autonomy to use the instruments for which they are responsible without interference from other authorities. The constituent members understood that ensuring price stability is a state duty and that the entity responsible for this task must be enshrined in the Constitution and have the technical capability and institutional autonomy necessary to adopt the decisions they deem appropriate to achieve this fundamental objective in coordination with the general economic policy. In particular, Article 373 established that “the State, through Banco de la República, shall ensure the maintenance of the purchasing power of the currency,” a provision that coincided with the central banking system adopted by countries that have been successful in controlling inflation. In 1999, in Ruling 481, the Constitutional Court stated that “the duty to maintain the purchasing power of the currency applies to not only the monetary, credit, and exchange authority, i.e., the Board of Banco de la República, but also those who have responsibilities in the formulation and implementation of the general economic policy of the country” and that “the basic constitutional purpose of Banco de la República is the protection of a sound currency. However, this authority must take the other economic objectives of state intervention such as full employment into consideration in their decisions since these functions must be coordinated with the general economic policy.” The reforms to Banco de la República agreed upon in the Constitutional Assembly of 1991 and in Act 31/1992 can be summarized in the following aspects: i) the Bank was assigned a specific mandate: to maintain the purchasing power of the currency in coordination with the general economic policy; ii) the BDBR was designatedas the monetary, foreign exchange, and credit authority; iii) the Bank and its Board of Directors were granted a significant degree of independence from the government; iv) the Bank was prohibited from granting credit to the private sector except in the case of the financial sector; v) established that in order to grant credit to the government, the unanimous vote of its Board of Directors was required except in the case of open market transactions; vi) determined that the legislature may, in no case, order credit quotas in favor of the State or individuals; vii) Congress was appointed, on behalf of society, as the main addressee of the Bank’s reporting exercise; and viii) the responsibility for inspection, surveillance, and control over Banco de la República was delegated to the President of the Republic. The members of the National Constitutional Assembly clearly understood that the benefits of low and stable inflation extend to the whole of society and contribute mto the smooth functioning of the economic system. Among the most important of these is that low inflation promotes the efficient use of productive resources by allowing relative prices to better guide the allocation of resources since this promotes economic growth and increases the welfare of the population. Likewise, low inflation reduces uncertainty about the expected return on investment and future asset prices. This increases the confidence of economic agents, facilitates long-term financing, and stimulates investment. Since the low-income population is unable to protect itself from inflation by diversifying its assets, and a high proportion of its income is concentrated in the purchase of food and other basic goods that are generally the most affected by inflationary shocks, low inflation avoids arbitrary redistribution of income and wealth.2 Moreover, low inflation facilitates wage negotiations, creates a good labor climate, and reduces the volatility of employment levels. Finally, low inflation helps to make the tax system more transparent and equitable by avoiding the distortions that inflation introduces into the value of assets and income that make up the tax base. From the monetary authority’s point of view, one of the most relevant benefits of low inflation is the credibility that economic agents acquire in inflation targeting, which turns it into an effective nominal anchor on price levels. Upon receiving its mandate, and using its autonomy, Banco de la República began to announce specific annual inflation targets as of 1992. Although the proposed inflation targets were not met precisely during this first stage, a downward trend in inflation was achieved that took it from 32.4% in 1990 to 16.7% in 1998. At that time, the exchange rate was kept within a band. This limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, which simultaneously sought to meet an inflation target and an exchange rate target. The Asian crisis spread to emerging economies and significantly affected the Colombian economy. The exchange rate came under strong pressure to depreciate as access to foreign financing was cut off under conditions of a high foreign imbalance. This, together with the lack of exchange rate flexibility, prevented a countercyclical monetary policy and led to a 4.2% contraction in GDP that year. In this context of economic slowdown, annual inflation fell to 9.2% at the end of 1999, thus falling below the 15% target set for that year. This episode fully revealed how costly it could be, in terms of economic activity, to have inflation and exchange rate targets simultaneously. Towards the end of 1999, Banco de la República announced the adoption of a new monetary policy regime called the Inflation Targeting Plan. This regime, known internationally as ‘Inflation Targeting,’ has been gaining increasing acceptance in developed countries, having been adopted in 1991 by New Zealand, Canada, and England, among others, and has achieved significant advances in the management of inflation without incurring costs in terms of economic activity. In Latin America, Brazil and Chile also adopted it in 1999. In the case of Colombia, the last remaining requirement to be fulfilled in order to adopt said policy was exchange rate flexibility. This was realized around September 1999, when the BDBR decided to abandon the exchange-rate bands to allow the exchange rate to be freely determined in the market.Consistent with the constitutional mandate, the fundamental objective of this new policy approach was “the achievement of an inflation target that contributes to maintaining output growth around its potential.”3 This potential capacity was understood as the GDP growth that the economy can obtain if it fully utilizes its productive resources. To meet this objective, monetary policy must of necessity play a countercyclical role in the economy. This is because when economic activity is below its potential and there are idle resources, the monetary authority can reduce the interest rate in the absence of inflationary pressure to stimulate the economy and, when output exceeds its potential capacity, raise it. This policy principle, which is immersed in the models for guiding the monetary policy stance, makes the following two objectives fully compatible in the medium term: meeting the inflation target and achieving a level of economic activity that is consistent with its productive capacity. To achieve this purpose, the inflation targeting system uses the money market interest rate (at which the central bank supplies primary liquidity to commercial banks) as the primary policy instrument. This replaced the quantity of money as an intermediate monetary policy target that Banco de la República, like several other central banks, had used for a long time. In the case of Colombia, the objective of the new monetary policy approach implied, in practical terms, that the recovery of the economy after the 1999 contraction should be achieved while complying with the decreasing inflation targets established by the BDBR. The accomplishment of this purpose was remarkable. In the first half of the first decade of the 2000s, economic activity recovered significantly and reached a growth rate of 6.8% in 2006. Meanwhile, inflation gradually declined in line with inflation targets. That was how the inflation rate went from 9.2% in 1999 to 4.5% in 2006, thus meeting the inflation target established for that year while GDP reached its potential level. After this balance was achieved in 2006, inflation rebounded to 5.7% in 2007, above the 4.0% target for that year due to the fact that the 7.5% GDP growth exceeded the potential capacity of the economy.4 After proving the effectiveness of the inflation targeting system in its first years of operation, this policy regime continued to consolidate as the BDBR and the technical staff gained experience in its management and state-of-the-art economic models were incorporated to diagnose the present and future state of the economy and to assess the persistence of inflation deviations and expectations with respect to the inflation target. Beginning in 2010, the BDBR established the long-term 3.0% annual inflation target, which remains in effect today. Lower inflation has contributed to making the macroeconomic environment more stable, and this has favored sustained economic growth, financial stability, capital market development, and the functioning of payment systems. As a result, reductions in the inflationary risk premia and lower TES and credit interest rates were achieved. At the same time, the duration of public domestic debt increased significantly going from 2.27 years in December 2002 to 5.86 years in December 2022, and financial deepening, measured as the level of the portfolio as a percentage of GDP, went from around 20% in the mid-1990s to values above 45% in recent years in a healthy context for credit institutions.Having been granted autonomy by the Constitution to fulfill the mandate of preserving the purchasing power of the currency, the tangible achievements made by Banco de la República in managing inflation together with the significant benefits derived from the process of bringing inflation to its long-term target, make the BDBR’s current challenge to return inflation to the 3.0% target even more demanding and pressing. As is well known, starting in 2021, and especially in 2022, inflation in Colombia once again became a serious economic problem with high welfare costs. The inflationary phenomenon has not been exclusive to Colombia and many other developed and emerging countries have seen their inflation rates move away from the targets proposed by their central banks.5 The reasons for this phenomenon have been analyzed in recent Reports to Congress, and this new edition delves deeper into the subject with updated information. The solid institutional and technical base that supports the inflation targeting approach under which the monetary policy strategy operates gives the BDBR the necessary elements to face this difficult challenge with confidence. In this regard, the BDBR reiterated its commitment to the 3.0% inflation target in its November 25 communiqué and expects it to be reached by the end of 2024.6 Monetary policy will continue to focus on meeting this objective while ensuring the sustainability of economic activity, as mandated by the Constitution. Analyst surveys done in March showed a significant increase (from 32.3% in January to 48.5% in March) in the percentage of responses placing inflation expectations two years or more ahead in a range between 3.0% and 4.0%. This is a clear indication of the recovery of credibility in the medium-term inflation target and is consistent with the BDBR’s announcement made in November 2022. The moderation of the upward trend in inflation seen in January, and especially in February, will help to reinforce this revision of inflation expectations and will help to meet the proposed targets. After reaching 5.6% at the end of 2021, inflation maintained an upward trend throughout 2022 due to inflationary pressures from both external sources, associated with the aftermath of the pandemic and the consequences of the war in Ukraine, and domestic sources, resulting from: strengthening of local demand; price indexation processes stimulated by the increase in inflation expectations; the impact on food production caused by the mid-2021 strike; and the pass-through of depreciation to prices. The 10% increase in the minimum wage in 2021 and the 16% increase in 2022, both of which exceeded the actual inflation and the increase in productivity, accentuated the indexation processes by establishing a high nominal adjustment benchmark. Thus, total inflation went to 13.1% by the end of 2022. The annual change in food prices, which went from 17.2% to 27.8% between those two years, was the most influential factor in the surge in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Another segment that contributed significantly to price increases was regulated products, which saw the annual change go from 7.1% in December 2021 to 11.8% by the end of 2022. The measure of core inflation excluding food and regulated items, in turn, went from 2.5% to 9.5% between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022. The substantial increase in core inflation shows that inflationary pressure has spread to most of the items in the household basket, which is characteristic of inflationary processes with generalized price indexation as is the case in Colombia. Monetary policy began to react early to this inflationary pressure. Thus, starting with its September 2021 session, the BDBR began a progressive change in the monetary policy stance moving away from the historical low of a 1.75% policy rate that had intended to stimulate the recovery of the economy. This adjustment process continued without interruption throughout 2022 and into the beginning of 2023 when the monetary policy rate reached 12.75% last January, thus accumulating an increase of 11 percentage points (pp). The public and the markets have been surprised that inflation continued to rise despite significant interest rate increases. However, as the BDBR has explained in its various communiqués, monetary policy works with a lag. Just as in 2022 economic activity recovered to a level above the pre-pandemic level, driven, along with other factors, by the monetary stimulus granted during the pandemic period and subsequent months, so too the effects of the current restrictive monetary policy will gradually take effect. This will allow us to expect the inflation rate to converge to 3.0% by the end of 2024 as is the BDBR’s purpose.Inflation results for January and February of this year showed declining marginal increases (13 bp and 3 bp respectively) compared to the change seen in December (59 bp). This suggests that a turning point in the inflation trend is approaching. In other Latin American countries such as Chile, Brazil, Perú, and Mexico, inflation has peaked and has begun to decline slowly, albeit with some ups and downs. It is to be expected that a similar process will take place in Colombia in the coming months. The expected decline in inflation in 2023 will be due, along with other factors, to lower cost pressure from abroad as a result of the gradual normalization of supply chains, the overcoming of supply shocks caused by the weather, and road blockades in previous years. This will be reflected in lower adjustments in food prices, as has already been seen in the first two months of the year and, of course, the lagged effect of monetary policy. The process of inflation convergence to the target will be gradual and will extend beyond 2023. This process will be facilitated if devaluation pressure is reversed. To this end, it is essential to continue consolidating fiscal sustainability and avoid messages on different public policy fronts that generate uncertainty and distrust. 1 This Report to Congress includes Box 1, which summarizes the trajectory of Banco de la República over the past 100 years. In addition, under the Bank’s auspices, several books that delve into various aspects of the history of this institution have been published in recent years. See, for example: Historia del Banco de la República 1923-2015; Tres banqueros centrales; Junta Directiva del Banco de la República: grandes episodios en 30 años de historia; Banco de la República: 90 años de la banca central en Colombia. 2 This is why lower inflation has been reflected in a reduction of income inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient that went from 58.7 in 1998 to 51.3 in the year prior to the pandemic. 3 See Gómez Javier, Uribe José Darío, Vargas Hernando (2002). “The Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Colombia”. Borradores de Economía, No. 202, March, available at: https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/5220 4 See López-Enciso Enrique A.; Vargas-Herrera Hernando and Rodríguez-Niño Norberto (2016). “The inflation targeting strategy in Colombia. An historical view.” Borradores de Economía, No. 952. https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/6263 5 According to the IMF, the percentage change in consumer prices between 2021 and 2022 went from 3.1% to 7.3% for advanced economies, and from 5.9% to 9.9% for emerging market and developing economies. 6 https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/noticias/junta-directiva-banco-republica-reitera-meta-inflacion-3
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African Open Science Platform Part 1: Landscape Study. Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf), 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.17159/assaf.2019/0047.

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This report maps the African landscape of Open Science – with a focus on Open Data as a sub-set of Open Science. Data to inform the landscape study were collected through a variety of methods, including surveys, desk research, engagement with a community of practice, networking with stakeholders, participation in conferences, case study presentations, and workshops hosted. Although the majority of African countries (35 of 54) demonstrates commitment to science through its investment in research and development (R&D), academies of science, ministries of science and technology, policies, recognition of research, and participation in the Science Granting Councils Initiative (SGCI), the following countries demonstrate the highest commitment and political willingness to invest in science: Botswana, Ethiopia, Kenya, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda. In addition to existing policies in Science, Technology and Innovation (STI), the following countries have made progress towards Open Data policies: Botswana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, South Africa and Uganda. Only two African countries (Kenya and South Africa) at this stage contribute 0.8% of its GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to R&D (Research and Development), which is the closest to the AU’s (African Union’s) suggested 1%. Countries such as Lesotho and Madagascar ranked as 0%, while the R&D expenditure for 24 African countries is unknown. In addition to this, science globally has become fully dependent on stable ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) infrastructure, which includes connectivity/bandwidth, high performance computing facilities and data services. This is especially applicable since countries globally are finding themselves in the midst of the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR), which is not only “about” data, but which “is” data. According to an article1 by Alan Marcus (2015) (Senior Director, Head of Information Technology and Telecommunications Industries, World Economic Forum), “At its core, data represents a post-industrial opportunity. Its uses have unprecedented complexity, velocity and global reach. As digital communications become ubiquitous, data will rule in a world where nearly everyone and everything is connected in real time. That will require a highly reliable, secure and available infrastructure at its core, and innovation at the edge.” Every industry is affected as part of this revolution – also science. An important component of the digital transformation is “trust” – people must be able to trust that governments and all other industries (including the science sector), adequately handle and protect their data. This requires accountability on a global level, and digital industries must embrace the change and go for a higher standard of protection. “This will reassure consumers and citizens, benefitting the whole digital economy”, says Marcus. A stable and secure information and communication technologies (ICT) infrastructure – currently provided by the National Research and Education Networks (NRENs) – is key to advance collaboration in science. The AfricaConnect2 project (AfricaConnect (2012–2014) and AfricaConnect2 (2016–2018)) through establishing connectivity between National Research and Education Networks (NRENs), is planning to roll out AfricaConnect3 by the end of 2019. The concern however is that selected African governments (with the exception of a few countries such as South Africa, Mozambique, Ethiopia and others) have low awareness of the impact the Internet has today on all societal levels, how much ICT (and the 4th Industrial Revolution) have affected research, and the added value an NREN can bring to higher education and research in addressing the respective needs, which is far more complex than simply providing connectivity. Apart from more commitment and investment in R&D, African governments – to become and remain part of the 4th Industrial Revolution – have no option other than to acknowledge and commit to the role NRENs play in advancing science towards addressing the SDG (Sustainable Development Goals). For successful collaboration and direction, it is fundamental that policies within one country are aligned with one another. Alignment on continental level is crucial for the future Pan-African African Open Science Platform to be successful. Both the HIPSSA ((Harmonization of ICT Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa)3 project and WATRA (the West Africa Telecommunications Regulators Assembly)4, have made progress towards the regulation of the telecom sector, and in particular of bottlenecks which curb the development of competition among ISPs. A study under HIPSSA identified potential bottlenecks in access at an affordable price to the international capacity of submarine cables and suggested means and tools used by regulators to remedy them. Work on the recommended measures and making them operational continues in collaboration with WATRA. In addition to sufficient bandwidth and connectivity, high-performance computing facilities and services in support of data sharing are also required. The South African National Integrated Cyberinfrastructure System5 (NICIS) has made great progress in planning and setting up a cyberinfrastructure ecosystem in support of collaborative science and data sharing. The regional Southern African Development Community6 (SADC) Cyber-infrastructure Framework provides a valuable roadmap towards high-speed Internet, developing human capacity and skills in ICT technologies, high- performance computing and more. The following countries have been identified as having high-performance computing facilities, some as a result of the Square Kilometre Array7 (SKA) partnership: Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Mauritius, Namibia, South Africa, Tunisia, and Zambia. More and more NRENs – especially the Level 6 NRENs 8 (Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, and recently Zambia) – are exploring offering additional services; also in support of data sharing and transfer. The following NRENs already allow for running data-intensive applications and sharing of high-end computing assets, bio-modelling and computation on high-performance/ supercomputers: KENET (Kenya), TENET (South Africa), RENU (Uganda), ZAMREN (Zambia), EUN (Egypt) and ARN (Algeria). Fifteen higher education training institutions from eight African countries (Botswana, Benin, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, Sudan, and Tanzania) have been identified as offering formal courses on data science. In addition to formal degrees, a number of international short courses have been developed and free international online courses are also available as an option to build capacity and integrate as part of curricula. The small number of higher education or research intensive institutions offering data science is however insufficient, and there is a desperate need for more training in data science. The CODATA-RDA Schools of Research Data Science aim at addressing the continental need for foundational data skills across all disciplines, along with training conducted by The Carpentries 9 programme (specifically Data Carpentry 10 ). Thus far, CODATA-RDA schools in collaboration with AOSP, integrating content from Data Carpentry, were presented in Rwanda (in 2018), and during17-29 June 2019, in Ethiopia. Awareness regarding Open Science (including Open Data) is evident through the 12 Open Science-related Open Access/Open Data/Open Science declarations and agreements endorsed or signed by African governments; 200 Open Access journals from Africa registered on the Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ); 174 Open Access institutional research repositories registered on openDOAR (Directory of Open Access Repositories); 33 Open Access/Open Science policies registered on ROARMAP (Registry of Open Access Repository Mandates and Policies); 24 data repositories registered with the Registry of Data Repositories (re3data.org) (although the pilot project identified 66 research data repositories); and one data repository assigned the CoreTrustSeal. Although this is a start, far more needs to be done to align African data curation and research practices with global standards. Funding to conduct research remains a challenge. African researchers mostly fund their own research, and there are little incentives for them to make their research and accompanying data sets openly accessible. Funding and peer recognition, along with an enabling research environment conducive for research, are regarded as major incentives. The landscape report concludes with a number of concerns towards sharing research data openly, as well as challenges in terms of Open Data policy, ICT infrastructure supportive of data sharing, capacity building, lack of skills, and the need for incentives. Although great progress has been made in terms of Open Science and Open Data practices, more awareness needs to be created and further advocacy efforts are required for buy-in from African governments. A federated African Open Science Platform (AOSP) will not only encourage more collaboration among researchers in addressing the SDGs, but it will also benefit the many stakeholders identified as part of the pilot phase. The time is now, for governments in Africa, to acknowledge the important role of science in general, but specifically Open Science and Open Data, through developing and aligning the relevant policies, investing in an ICT infrastructure conducive for data sharing through committing funding to making NRENs financially sustainable, incentivising open research practices by scientists, and creating opportunities for more scientists and stakeholders across all disciplines to be trained in data management.
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