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1
Drapeau, Samuel. „Risk preferences and their robust representation“. Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät II, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/16135.
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Ziel dieser Dissertation ist es, den Begriff des Risikos unter den Aspekten seiner Quantifizierung durch robuste Darstellungen zu untersuchen. In einem ersten Teil wird Risiko anhand Kontext-Invarianter Merkmale betrachtet: Diversifizierung und Monotonie. Wir führen die drei Schlüsselkonzepte, Risikoordnung, Risikomaß und Risikoakzeptanzfamilen ein, und studieren deren eins-zu-eins Beziehung. Unser Hauptresultat stellt eine eindeutige duale robuste Darstellung jedes unterhalbstetigen Risikomaßes auf topologischen Vektorräumen her. Wir zeigen auch automatische Stetigkeitsergebnisse und robuste Darstellungen für Risikomaße auf diversen Arten von konvexen Mengen. Diese Herangehensweise lässt bei der Wahl der konvexen Menge viel Spielraum, und erlaubt damit eine Vielfalt von Interpretationen von Risiko: Modellrisiko im Falle von Zufallsvariablen, Verteilungsrisiko im Falle von Lotterien, Abdiskontierungsrisiko im Falle von Konsumströmen... Diverse Beispiele sind dann in diesen verschiedenen Situationen explizit berechnet (Sicherheitsäquivalent, ökonomischer Risikoindex, VaR für Lotterien, "variational preferences"...). Im zweiten Teil, betrachten wir Präferenzordnungen, die möglicherweise zusätzliche Informationen benötigen, um ausgedrückt zu werden. Hierzu führen wir einen axiomatischen Rahmen in Form von bedingten Präferenzordungen ein, die lokal mit der Information kompatibel sind. Dies erlaubt die Konstruktion einer bedingten numerischen Darstellung. Wir erhalten eine bedingte Variante der von Neumann und Morgenstern Darstellung für messbare stochastische Kerne und erweitern dieses Ergebnis zur einer bedingten Version der "variational preferences". Abschließend, klären wir das Zusammenpiel zwischen Modellrisiko und Verteilungsrisiko auf der axiomatischen Ebene.The goal of this thesis is the conceptual study of risk and its quantification via robust representations. We concentrate in a first part on context invariant features related to this notion: diversification and monotonicity. We introduce and study the general properties of three key concepts, risk order, risk measure and risk acceptance family and their one-to-one relations. Our main result is a uniquely characterized dual robust representation of lower semicontinuous risk orders on topological vector space. We also provide automatic continuity and robust representation results on specific convex sets. This approach allows multiple interpretation of risk depending on the setting: model risk in the case of random variables, distributional risk in the case of lotteries, discounting risk in the case of consumption streams... Various explicit computations in those different settings are then treated (economic index of riskiness, certainty equivalent, VaR on lotteries, variational preferences...). In the second part, we consider preferences which might require additional information in order to be expressed. We provide a mathematical framework for this idea in terms of preorders, called conditional preference orders, which are locally compatible with the available information. This allows us to construct conditional numerical representations of conditional preferences. We obtain a conditional version of the von Neumann and Morgenstern representation for measurable stochastic kernels and extend then to a conditional version of the variational preferences. We finally clarify the interplay between model risk and distributional risk on the axiomatic level.
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Ghose, Rana Janak. „Regulating GMOs in India : pragmatism, politics, representation, and risk“. Thesis, University of Sussex, 2011. http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/7579/.
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At the core of any effort by a nation state to regulate new technologies for public release is an implicit navigation of uncertainty. The case of Bt cotton in India presents a very timely and pragmatic example of how nation states grapple with uncertainty in a regulatory context. While much attention has been given to how government actors form regulation, far less is given to how actors outside of the government spheres act as catalysts for regulatory reform. In practice, it is often these parties that drive regulation as a process. The question is how. This paper outlines the findings of fieldwork conducted in India between March 2007 and July 2009 in addressing this central question: what does regulation really mean in a context where new technologies burdened with uncertain consequences are introduced? How do preferences, decisions, and regulatory norms adapt to this introduction based on the interactions of a multitude of parties acting on multiple framings of understanding what risk means? The conclusion is that regulation – in the context of Bt cotton in India - is far from a set of government policies derived from scientific measures of risk assessment. Civil society, firms, and farmers themselves all have tremendous influence on how a nation state navigates uncertainty in a regulatory context. It is a process forged on risk interfaces, where constructions of risk both complement and oppose one another. The actors involved enter these spaces, invited or otherwise. What the government may have initially imagined as ‘regulation' is subject to multiple technical, economic, and political framings of risk from each actor. As a result, regulation is a coevolutionary, co-constructed process. This process of negotiating these spaces is what regulation really means.
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Waldron, Cherry-Ann. „Cardiovascular risk prediction : how useful are web-based tools and do risk representation formats matter?“ Thesis, Cardiff University, 2011. http://orca.cf.ac.uk/55126/.
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Cardiovascular risk prediction tools are becoming increasing available on the web for people to use at home. However, research into the most effective ways of communicating cardiovascular risk has been limited. This thesis examined how well web-based cardiovascular risk prediction tools present cardiovascular risk and encourage risk reduction. Variation was found in both the quality of the risk communication and the number of features incorporated into the tools to facilitate decisions about lifestyle change and treatment. Additionally, past literature into the effectiveness of cardiovascular risk representation formats was systematically reviewed. This highlighted the need for more methodologically sound studies, using actual risk assessment rather than hypothetical risk scenarios. This thesis also described a four-armed web-based randomised controlled trial (RCT) conducted to examine the effects of different cardiovascular risk representation formats on patient-based outcomes. It comprised a cardiovascular risk formatter that presented risk in one of three formats: bar graph, pictogram and metonym (e.g. image depicting the seriousness of having a myocardial infarction). There were two control groups to examine the Hawthorne effect. In total, 903 respondents took part in the trial. The most successful recruitment methods were web-based, including staff electronic noticeboards and social networking sites. The RCT found that viewing cardiovascular risk significantly reduces negative emotions in the 'worried well', thus helping to correct inaccurate risk perceptions. There were no main effects of risk representation formats, suggesting that the way risk is presented had little influence on the population that were recruited, in terms of motivating behaviour change, facilitating understanding of risk information or altering emotion. However, a possible type II error occurred as the sample was unrepresentative, highly educated and biased towards those of low cardiovascular risk. Further research is needed to reach target audiences and engage those who would benefit the most from using risk assessment tools.
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Polley, Jason S. „Acts of justice : risk and representation in contemporary American fiction“. Thesis, McGill University, 2006. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=102824.
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Spectacles of justice preoccupy contemporary American culture. Legal culture---including the Watergate trials, the Lewinsky scandal, and OJ Simpson's trial for alleged murder---assumes a central place in the American imaginary. Configurations of the law are not limited to media reportage and televised docudramas. Nor are arbitrations confined to law faculties and the spaces of formal courts. Working through depictions of due process in different ways and in different zones, contemporary American writers point up the prevalence of legality in everyday life. Whether on college campuses, in TV studios and suburban homes, or at theatres and racetracks, justice mediates interpersonal relations. Personal narratives proliferate as modes of self-justification. Everyone has a right to represent her side of a story. As interpretations of reality, however, none of these stories can claim absolute justness. No one has a monopoly on the law or victimhood.This dissertation inspects how Jonathan Franzen, Don DeLillo, and Jane Smiley present the inconsistencies of the law. These American novelists emplot global escapes into their work as a means to inform notions of liberty and jurisprudence. For these writers, freedom requires the recognition of contradictory---and unanticipated---narratives. "Justice Theory" emerges where media, gambling, performance, and suburban studies intersect with ethics, globalism, and narratology. In Franzen's novel The Corrections and essay collection How to Be Alone, self-validation requires the appreciation of the stories of others. In DeLillo's later works, particularly the plays The Day Room and Valparaiso, justice materializes in terms of isolation and the will to alter personal stories. For Smiley, as construed in her long novels The Greenlanders and Horse Heaven, dynamic responsive actions attend risky, unpredictable encounters in competitive milieus like the racetrack. These authors reveal that executions of justice and the perpetration of injustice involve varied consequences. The law is not only about punishment and recompense. Rather, legality directs the consequences of its applications toward the ideal of justice, which evolves alongside the subjects that it serves and the stories that they relate.
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Morrier, Michael Joseph. „Disproportionate Representation of Preschool-Aged Children with Disabilities“. Digital Archive @ GSU, 2008. http://digitalarchive.gsu.edu/epse_diss/48.
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Historically, students from ethnically diverse backgrounds in grades K-12 have been over-represented in special education, yet little research on disproportionate representation has been conducted with preschool-aged children. This study examined if 72,525 preschool-aged children with disabilities from ethnically diverse backgrounds were disproportionately represented in special education within and across five southern states. Data were gathered from the 2006 December 1st Child Count reported by each State Department of Education to the U.S. Department of Education. Chosen states offered state-funded pre-kindergarten programs, which should have provided equal opportunities for inclusion across states. Analyses compared children with disabilities for disproportionate representation across state of residence, across special education eligibilities, across educational placements, and amount of inclusion provided. Data were analyzed for child and placement characteristics. Due to data suppression by individual states, analyses were conducted using children from Black and White backgrounds, and children from Hispanic backgrounds were used when reported by individual states. Child characteristics considered included the child’s: (a) type of disability eligibility category, (b) age, and (c) ethnicity. Placement characteristics included: (a) type of educational placement, (b) state in which child resided, and (c) amount of inclusion received. Indices of disproportionate representation were calculated using: (a) composition index, (b) risk index, (c) odds ratio, and (d) relative risk ratio. A 3 x 5 ANOVA was used to calculate placement differences between states. Factorial analysis was used to calculate determinants of placement status for preschool-aged children with disabilities. Results revealed disproportionate representation does occur at the preschool level, although between state variability was great, and patterns differed from the K-12 literature. Children from American Indian backgrounds were over-represented due to high proportions in states of Alabama and North Carolina, while children from Asian and Hispanic backgrounds were under-represented. Children from Black and White backgrounds were represented in special education at expected rates. The most common eligibility categories were speech/language impairments and developmental delay. Placement results revealed over-representation for White preschoolers and males, although type of state-funded pre-k program was a non-significant factor. Inclusion analyses favored Whites and males. Child demographic factors explained the majority of variability in inclusion status.
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Ghassemi, Marzyeh. „Representation learning in multi-dimensional clinical timeseries for risk and event prediction“. Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/112389.
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Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2017.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 99-108).
There are major practical and technical barriers to understanding human health, and therefore a need for methods that thrive on large, complex, noisy data. In this work, we present machine learning methods that distill large amounts of heterogeneous health data into latent state representations. These representations are then used to estimate risks of poor outcomes, and response to intervention in multivariate physiological signals. We evaluate the reduced latent representations by 1) establishing their predictive value in important clinical tasks and 2) showing that the latent space representations themselves provide useful insight into underlying systems. In particular, we focus on case studies that can provide evidence-based risk assessment and forecasting in settings with guidelines that have not traditionally been data-driven. In this thesis we evaluate several methods to create patient representations, and use these features to predict important outcomes. Representation learning can be thought of as a form of phenotype discovery, where we attempt to discover spaces in the new representation that are markers of important events. We argue that these latent representations are useful markers when they 1) create better prediction results on outcomes of interest, and 2) do not duplicate features that are currently known bio-markers. We present four case studies of learning representations, and evaluate the representations on real predictive tasks. First, we create forward-facing prediction models using baseline clinical features, and those from a Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model trained with clinical progress notes. We then evaluate the per-patient latent state membership to predict mortality in an intensive care setting as time moves forward. Second, we use non-parametric Multi-task Gaussian Process (MTGP) hyper-parameters as latent features to estimate correlations within and between signals in sparse, heterogeneous time series data. We evaluate the hyper-parameters for forecasting missing signals in traumatic brain injury patients, and predicting mortality in intensive care unit patients. Third, we train switching-state autoregressive models (SSAMs) to model the underlying states that emit patient vital signs over time. We evaluate the time-specific latent state distributions as features to predict vasopressor onset and weaning in intensive care unit patients. Finally, we use statistical and symbolic features extracted from wearable ambulatory accelerometers (ACC) mounted to the neck to classify patient pathology, and stratify patients' risk of voice misuse. We evaluate the utility of both statistically generated features and symbolic representations of glottal pulses towards patient classification.
by Marzyeh Ghassemi.
Ph. D.
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Aaron, Michele Suzanne. „Un/safe texts : 'madmen', masochists and the representation of self-endangerment“. Thesis, University of Southampton, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.323788.
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Chattopadhyay, Jacqueline. „Representation and Household Risk Exposure: Attention to Access and Quality in Domestic Policy“. Thesis, Harvard University, 2012. http://dissertations.umi.com/gsas.harvard:10196.
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This project defines a concept, “attention to quality,” and proposes that legislative attention to quality is a dependent variable that political science can use to evaluate the content of representation the political system offers, specifically to trace a means by which politics may influence household exposure to financial risk and possibly income inequality. Upstream of regulation or other formal policy solutions, attention to quality is observable consideration of the possibility that a good poses risk, or fails to shield consumers from risk, due to features of its own design. The project studies congressional attention to quality for three privately-vended, middle-class goods with the capacity to impact household risk exposure: health insurance, home loans, and prescription drugs. It also examines attention to quality in risk-modulating pieces of the welfare-state, taking Medicare as an example. The project explicitly contrasts attention to quality with attention to access for each good. Second, based on original datasets, this project reports robust evidence that legislative attention to access exceeds legislative attention to quality for the privately vended goods, particularly insurance and loans. It finds the reverse true of welfare-state goods. In doing so, the project contributes new quantitative evidence to the emergent body of research in American politics on how political processes, as opposed to strictly the macro-economy, may influence household financial insecurity. Third, the project makes progress in uncovering the underpinnings of quality attention. It finds senator attention to quality linked to partisan considerations—particularly the other political party’s degree of dominance in quality talk—in ways that appear to depress quality attention for privately-vended goods but buoy it for welfare-state goods. Quality’s visibility to the public appears to heighten the degree to which legislators consider the other party’s degree of dominance in quality talk when deciding whether to give quality attention. These patterns occur against a backdrop of what appears to be electorally-minded access attention: incumbents attend to the access facet of privately-vended goods as reelection dates approach, while not exhibiting such behavior around the quality facet. These findings have implications for research on congressional agenda setting and representation.
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Lu, Danni. „Representation Learning Based Causal Inference in Observational Studies“. Diss., Virginia Tech, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/102426.
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This dissertation investigates novel statistical approaches for causal effect estimation in observational settings, where controlled experimentation is infeasible and confounding is the main hurdle in estimating causal effect. As such, deconfounding constructs the main subject of this dissertation, that is (i) to restore the covariate balance between treatment groups and (ii) to attenuate spurious correlations in training data to derive valid causal conclusions that generalize. By incorporating ideas from representation learning, adversarial matching, generative causal estimation, and invariant risk modeling, this dissertation establishes a causal framework that balances the covariate distribution in latent representation space to yield individualized estimations, and further contributes novel perspectives on causal effect estimation based on invariance principles.
The dissertation begins with a systematic review and examination of classical propensity score based balancing schemes for population-level causal effect estimation, presented in Chapter 2. Three causal estimands that target different foci in the population are considered: average treatment effect on the whole population (ATE), average treatment effect on the treated population (ATT), and average treatment effect on the overlap population (ATO). The procedure is demonstrated in a naturalistic driving study (NDS) to evaluate the causal effect of cellphone distraction on crash risk. While highlighting the importance of adopting causal perspectives in analyzing risk factors, discussions on the limitations in balance efficiency, robustness against high-dimensional data and complex interactions, and the need for individualization are provided to motivate subsequent developments.
Chapter 3 presents a novel generative Bayesian causal estimation framework named Balancing Variational Neural Inference of Causal Effects (BV-NICE). Via appealing to the Robinson factorization and a latent Bayesian model, a novel variational bound on likelihood is derived, explicitly characterized by the causal effect and propensity score. Notably, by treating observed variables as noisy proxies of unmeasurable latent confounders, the variational posterior approximation is re-purposed as a stochastic feature encoder that fully acknowledges representation uncertainties. To resolve the imbalance in representations, BV-NICE enforces KL-regularization on the respective representation marginals using Fenchel mini-max learning, justified by a new generalization bound on the counterfactual prediction accuracy. The robustness and effectiveness of this framework are demonstrated through an extensive set of tests against competing solutions on semi-synthetic and real-world datasets.
In recognition of the reliability issue when extending causal conclusions beyond training distributions, Chapter 4 argues ascertaining causal stability is the key and introduces a novel procedure called Risk Invariant Causal Estimation (RICE). By carefully re-examining the relationship between statistical invariance and causality, RICE cleverly leverages the observed data disparities to enable the identification of stable causal effects. Concretely, the causal inference objective is reformulated under the framework of invariant risk modeling (IRM), where a population-optimality penalty is enforced to filter out un-generalizable effects across heterogeneous populations. Importantly, RICE allows settings where counterfactual reasoning with unobserved confounding or biased sampling designs become feasible. The effectiveness of this new proposal is verified with respect to a variety of study designs on real and synthetic data.
In summary, this dissertation presents a flexible causal inference framework that acknowledges the representation uncertainties and data heterogeneities. It enjoys three merits: improved balance to complex covariate interactions, enhanced robustness to unobservable latent confounders, and better generalizability to novel populations.Doctor of Philosophy
Reasoning cause and effect is the innate ability of a human. While the drive to understand cause and effect is instinct, the rigorous reasoning process is usually trained through the observation of countless trials and failures. In this dissertation, we embark on a journey to explore various principles and novel statistical approaches for causal inference in observational studies. Throughout the dissertation, we focus on the causal effect estimation which answers questions like ``what if" and ``what could have happened". The causal effect of a treatment is measured by comparing the outcomes corresponding to different treatment levels of the same unit, e.g. ``what if the unit is treated instead of not treated?". The challenge lies in the fact that i) a unit only receives one treatment at a time and therefore it is impossible to directly compare outcomes of different treatment levels; ii) comparing the outcomes across different units may involve bias due to confounding as the treatment assignment potentially follows a systematic mechanism. Therefore, deconfounding constructs the main hurdle in estimating causal effects. This dissertation presents two parallel principles of deconfounding: i) balancing, i.e., comparing difference under similar conditions; ii) contrasting, i.e., extracting invariance under heterogeneous conditions. Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 explore causal effect through balancing, with the former systematically reviews a classical propensity score weighting approach in a conventional data setting and the latter presents a novel generative Bayesian framework named Balancing Variational Neural Inference of Causal Effects(BV-NICE) for high-dimensional, complex, and noisy observational data. It incorporates the advance deep learning techniques of representation learning, adversarial learning, and variational inference. The robustness and effectiveness of the proposed framework are demonstrated through an extensive set of experiments. Chapter 4 extracts causal effect through contrasting, emphasizing that ascertaining stability is the key of causality. A novel causal effect estimating procedure called Risk Invariant Causal Estimation(RICE) is proposed that leverages the observed data disparities to enable the identification of stable causal effects. The improved generalizability of RICE is demonstrated through synthetic data with different structures, compared with state-of-art models. In summary, this dissertation presents a flexible causal inference framework that acknowledges the data uncertainties and heterogeneities. By promoting two different aspects of causal principles and integrating advance deep learning techniques, the proposed framework shows improved balance for complex covariate interactions, enhanced robustness for unobservable latent confounders, and better generalizability for novel populations.
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Demers, Jean-Simon. „Racing Heroes and Grieving Widows: A Study of the Representation of Death in Motorsport“. Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/38195.
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Gilles Villeneuve, Ayrton Senna, Greg Moore, Dale Earnhardt. Only four of a number of high-profile race car drivers to have lost their lives taking part in events at the highest levels of motorsport. The aim of the present study is to analyze the coverage of death in high-level motorsport in the printed sports news of La Presse and The Toronto Star in Canada for the 1982 to 2017 period inclusively. Mobilizing the existing literature on risk-taking, namely Lyng’s concept of edgework, as well as Hall’s work on representation, a thematic analysis of a sample of sports news articles (N=488) was conducted. Three main themes emerged from the analysis. The discussion surrounding motorsport fatalities revolved around the individual (the deceased driver), the social aspect of the death (primarily the family members left behind), and journalistic practices (how to cover death). In conclusion, the coverage of death in motorsport was found to be an instance where the athlete is heroized and sometimes revered even decades after their death. In this aspect, the figure of Gilles Villeneuve remains pivotal to motorsport discussions in Canada, even to this day. It also was found that sports journalists, through their coverage of deadly accidents, enact the traditional roles of the journalist in offering social criticism of their subject matter to their readers, and that motorsport drivers enact a highly specific type of masculinity when practicing their sport.
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Fausset, Cara Bailey. „Comprehension of health risk probabilities: the roles of age, numeracy, format, and mental representation“. Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/44832.
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Probabilities, an essential dimension of risk communication, can be presented in various formats including frequencies (e.g., 1 in 10), percentages (e.g., 10%), or verbal phrases (e.g., unlikely); the literature is mixed concerning which format best supports comprehension. Additionally, it is not well understood how people who vary in their level of numeracy understand those probabilities. The goal of the present three-phase within-participant study was to understand how the factors of format and numeracy influence comprehension and mental representations of probabilities for younger and older adults. Overall, the results of this research clearly indicated that comprehension and mental representation of health risk probabilities are influenced by format, age, and numeracy. To best support comprehension and comparison of health risk probabilities for younger adults and healthy older adults with varying numeracy, percent format should be used.
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Gerbais, Juliette. „Women Representation in Disaster Risk Reduction : A Critical Discourse Analysis of the UNDRR Frameworks“. Thesis, Malmö universitet, Malmö högskola, Institutionen för globala politiska studier (GPS), 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-18446.
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While early relocation is not makeable, disaster risk reduction seems to be the most effective tool to decrease the impact of a disaster. This case study focuses on three UNDRR frameworks as they appear to be the greatest instance of international documents referring to disaster risk reduction (DRR). Especially, this research examines the representation of women within these frameworks and how their portrayal in DRR has changed over the last two decades. To do so, a critical discourse analysis of the three UNDRR frameworks is conducted. This study benefits from a social vulnerability approach and further engages with the Feminist Political Ecology theory. The analysis finds that even though women are increasingly represented in the frameworks, their roles as active participants remain negligible. Their knowledge and interest are still not recognised as valuable in DRR. Rather, women seem to be employed as tools to include more gender-sensitive programmes. This study recommends a greater and more complex emphasis on women in future DRR policies.
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van, Pelt Nadia. „Play-making on the edge of reality : managing spectator risk in early English drama“. Thesis, University of Southampton, 2013. https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/366616/.
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This thesis places the notion of risk and the diversity of treatment that the management of risk involves, at the centre of the discourse about Early English drama. It locates the spectator’s experience on the edge of reality and fiction. Offering an alternative to current theories of metatheatricality and cognitive theory, this research attempts to contribute to knowledge by arguing that the most important element of the dramatic experience exists between the two poles of an awareness of artifice and absorption, and that the dramatic experience is managed by playwright, actor and spectator with respect to these two poles. This thesis focuses on the spectator, not just on the absorbed spectator who ‘lives’ in the drama, such as one finds in cognitive studies, or on the reflective spectator who is conscious of the artifice of drama, such as in metatheatrical studies, but rather on participatory spectators, and on spectators moving between the two positions of absorption and reflection. The case studies in this thesis are reflective of the contexts of early English dramatic performance: they show how similar issues were controlled differently in different contexts; that there might be no clear boundary between Catholic and Protestant drama in terms of spectator management; that some playwrights had political reasons to believe it best if they did not manage their spectators’ experience, while other playwrights displayed a deep commitment to controlling not only spectators’ experiences and responses during the performance but also afterwards, suggesting that risk management is not an act but rather a process; that dramatic performance could cause disaster if not sufficiently managed, or if the performance context in which the drama was performed, was misjudged, but that the use of the dramatic medium could also be recuperated by later events of a similar nature. Examining drama in its specific literary and historical context, this thesis reconstructs the play-experience not only through the plays, but also through a study of how plays were described in Star Chamber records, ambassadorial records, eye-witness accounts, and other records. It clarifies early drama’s most fundamental characteristic to be an intervention in society, and as such always relating to non-dramatic issues, and inevitably carrying risk with it.
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Jane, Robert. „Improving the representation of the fragility of coastal structures“. Thesis, University of Plymouth, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/13080.
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Robust Flood Risk Analysis (FRA) is essential for effective flood risk management. The performance of any flood defence assets will heavily influence the estimate of an area's flood risk. It is therefore critical that the probability of a coastal flood defence asset incurring a structural failure when subjected to a particular loading i.e. its fragility is accurately quantified. The fragility representations of coastal defence assets presently adopted in UK National FRA (NaFRA) suffer three pertinent limitations. Firstly, assumptions relating to the modelling of the dependence structure of the variables that comprise the hydraulic load, including the water level, wave height and period, are restricted to a single loading variable. Consequently, due to the "system wide" nature of the analysis, a defence's conditional failure probability must also be expressed in terms of a single loading in the form of a fragility curve. For coastal defences the single loading is the overtopping discharge, an amalgamation of these basic loading variables. The prevalence of other failure initiation mechanisms may vary considerably for combinations of the basic loadings which give rise to equal overtopping discharges. Hence the univariate nature of the existing representations potentially restricts their ability to accurately assess an asset's structural vulnerability. Secondly, they only consider failure at least partially initiated through overtopping and thus neglect other pertinent initiation mechanisms acting in its absence. Thirdly, fragility representations have been derived for 61 generic assets (idealised forms of the defences found around the UK coast) each in five possible states of repair. The fragility representation associated with the generic asset and its state of repair deemed to most closely resemble a particular defence is adopted to describe its fragility. Any disparity in the parameters which influence the defence's structural vulnerability in the generic form of the asset and those observed in the field are also likely to further reduce the robustness of the existing fragility representations. In NaFRA coastal flood defence assets are broadly classified as vertical walls, beaches and embankments. The latter are typically found in sheltered locations where failure is water level driven and hence expressing failure probability conditionally on overtopping is admissible. Therefore new fragility representations for vertical wall and gravel beach assets which address the limitations of those presently adopted in NaFRA are derived. To achieve this aim it was necessary to propose new procedures for extracting information on the site and structural parameters characterising a defence's structural vulnerability from relevant resources (predominately beach profiles). In addition novel statistical approaches were put forward for capturing the uncertainties in the parameters on the basis of the site specific data obtained after implementation of the aforementioned procedures. A preliminary validation demonstrated the apparent reliability of these approaches. The pertinent initiation mechanisms behind the structural failure of each asset type were then identified before the state-of-the-art models for predicting the prevalence of these mechanisms during an event were evaluated. The Obhrai et al. (2008) re-formulation of the Bradbury (2000) barrier inertia model, which encapsulates all of the initiating mechanisms behind the structural failure of a beach, was reasoned as a more appropriate model for predicting the breach of a beach than that adopted in NaFRA. Failure initiated exclusively at the toe of a seawall was explicitly accounted for in the new formulations of the fragility representations using the predictors for sand and shingle beaches derived by Sutherland et al. (2007) and Powell & Lowe (1994). In order to assess whether the new formulations warrant a place in future FRAs they were derived for the relevant assets in Lyme Bay (UK). The inclusion of site specific information in the derivation of fragility representations resulted in a several orders of magnitude change in the Annual Failure Probabilities (AFPs) of the vertical wall assets. The assets deemed most vulnerable were amongst those assigned the lowest AFPs in the existing analysis. The site specific data indicated that the crest elevations assumed in NaFRA are reliable. Hence it appears the more accurate specification of asset geometry and in particular the inclusion of the beach elevation in the immediate vicinity of the structure in the overtopping calculation is responsible for the changes. The AFP was zero for many of the walls (≈ 77%) indicating other mechanism(s) occurring in the absence of any overtopping are likely to be responsible for failure. Toe scour was found to be the dominant failure mechanism at all of the assets at which it was considered a plausible cause of breach. Increases of at least an order of magnitude upon the AFP after the inclusion of site specific information in the fragility representations were observed at ≈ 86% of the walls. The AFPs assigned by the new site specific multivariate fragility representations to the beach assets were positively correlated with those prescribed by the existing representations. However, once the new representations were adopted there was substantially more variability in AFPs of the beach assets which had previously been deemed to be in identical states of repair. As part of the work, the new and existing fragility representations were validated at assets which had experienced failure or near-failure in the recent past, using the hydraulic loading conditions recorded during the event. No appraisal of the reliability of the new representations for beaches was possible due to an absence of any such events within Lyme Bay. Their AFPs suggest that armed with more information about an asset's geometry the new formulations are able to provide a more robust description of a beach's structural vulnerability. The results of the validation as well as the magnitude of the AFPs assigned by the new representations on the basis of field data suggest that the newly proposed representations provide the more realistic description of the structural vulnerability of seawalls. Any final conclusions regarding the robustness of the representations must be deferred until more failure data becomes available. The trade-off for the potentially more robust description of an asset's structural vulnerability was a substantial increase in the time required for the newly derived fragility representations to compute the failure probability associated with a hydraulic loading event. To combat this increase, (multivariate) generic versions of the new representations were derived using the structural specific data from the assets within Lyme Bay. Although there was generally good agreement in the failure probabilities assigned to the individual hydraulic loading events by the new generic representations there was evidence of systematic error. This error has the potential to bias flood risk estimates and thus requires investigation before the new generic representations are included in future FRAs. Given the disparity in the estimated structural vulnerability of the assets according to the existing fragility curves and the site-specific multivariate representations the new generic representations are likely to be more reliable than the existing fragility curves.
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Shanmugam, Divy. „A tale of two time series methods : representation learning for improved distance and risk metrics“. Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/119575.
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Thesis: M. Eng., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2018.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 43-49).
In this thesis, we present methods in representation learning for time series in two areas: metric learning and risk stratification. We focus on metric learning due to the importance of computing distances between examples in learning algorithms and present Jiffy, a simple and scalable distance metric learning method for multivariate time series. Our approach is to reframe the task as a representation learning problem -- rather than design an elaborate distance function, we use a CNN to learn an embedding such that the Euclidean distance is effective. Experiments on a diverse set of multivariate time series datasets show that our approach consistently outperforms existing methods. We then focus on risk stratification because of its clinical importance in identifying patients at high risk for an adverse outcome. We use segments of a patient's ECG signal to predict that patient's risk of cardiovascular death within 90 days. In contrast to other work, we work directly with the raw ECG signal to learn a representation with predictive power. Our method produces a risk metric for cardiovascular death with state-of-the-art performance when compared to methods that rely on expert-designed representations.
by Divya Shanmugam.
M. Eng.
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Wiebe, Vaneesa Joy. „Parenting style and self-other representation in high risk adolescents, the moderating role of attachment patterns“. Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape10/PQDD_0023/MQ51506.pdf.
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Chui, Lawrence. „An Experimental Examination of the Effects of Fraud Specialist and Audit Mindsets on Fraud Risk Assessments and on the Development of Fraud-Related Problem Representations“. Thesis, University of North Texas, 2010. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc30447/.
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Fraud risk assessment is an important audit process that has a direct impact on the effectiveness of auditors' fraud detection in an audit. However, prior literature has shown that auditors are generally poor at assessing fraud risk. The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) suggests that auditors may improve their fraud risk assessment performance by adopting a fraud specialist mindset. A fraud specialist mindset is a special way of thinking about accounting records. While auditors think about the company's recorded transactions in terms of the availability of supporting documentations and the authenticity of the audit trail, fraud specialists think instead of accounting records in terms of the authenticity of the events and activities that are behind the reported transactions. Currently there is no study that has examined the effects of the fraud specialist mindset on auditors' fraud risk assessment performance. In addition, although recent studies have found that fraud specialists are more sensitive than auditors in discerning fraud risk factors in situation where a high level of fraud risk is present, it remains unclear whether the same can be said for situation where the risk of fraud is low. Thus, the purpose of my dissertation is to examine the effects of fraud specialist and audit mindsets on fraud risk assessment performance. In addition, I examined such effects on fraud risk assessment performance in both high and low fraud risk conditions. The contributions of my dissertation include being the first to experimentally examine how different mindsets impact fraud-related judgment. The results of my study have the potential to help address the PCAOB's desire to improve auditors' fraud risk assessment performance though the adoption of the fraud specialist mindset. In addition, my study contributes to the literature by exploring fraud-related problem representation as a possible mediator of mindset on fraud risk assessment performance. I executed my dissertation by conducting an experiment in which mindset (fraud specialist or audit) was induced prior to the completion of an audit case (high or low in fraud risk). A total of 85 senior-level accounting students enrolled in two separate auditing classes participated in my study. The results from my experimental provide empirical support that it is possible to improve auditors' fraud risk assessment through adapting the fraud specialist mindset. My study also provides preliminary evidence that individuals with the fraud specialist mindset developed different problem representations than those with the audit mindset.
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GRIZENDI, LUCIMAR THEREZINHA. „RESIDENCE AND RISK CONDITIONS: SOCIAL REPRESENTATION OF TECHNICIAN AND RESIDENTS FROM THE OUTSKIRTS OF JUIZ DE FORA“. PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2003. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=4109@1.
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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIROO objetivo central é identificar as representações que moradores da periferia de Juiz de Fora em condições de risco e de vulnerabilidade e, técnicos do Departamento de Defesa Civil do Município, vêm construindo sobre risco e vulnerabilidade, tentando apreender como essas representações circulam entre os dois grupos. Parte-se da observação empírica que há construções e práticas diferentes: os moradores não seguem as orientações dos técnicos na prevenção de calamidades e na preservação da vida. Fatores como a desigualdade social e a não efetividade das políticas sociais, dentre elas a política de habitação, agravam ainda mais as condições de risco e de vulnerabilidade em que vivem amplos segmentos da população e, a Defesa Civil aparece como política emergencial residual destinada a atender a essa população. Adotou-se a perspectiva das representações sociais, e, a abordagem qualitativa para a escuta dos sujeitos, através de entrevistas semi-estruturadas. Os resultados indicam, a partir do confronto dos discursos, que as representações do risco vêm sendo construídas num processo dialético de afirmação e negação do fenômeno. Aspectos valorativos interferem nessa construção. Para os técnicos, sair do risco é garantir a vida e, para a população, a vulnerabilidade, ou seja, a necessidade de sobrevivência se sobrepõe à existência do risco.
The main objective of this study is to identify the representations that the residents of the outskirts of Juiz de Fora living in vulnerable and risk conditions and, technician of the Civil Defense Municipality Department, have been constructing about risk and vulnerability, trying to grasp how such representations constitute themselves between these two groups. According to empirical observations there are diferent representations and practices: the residents dont follow or obey the orientations given by the technicians on how to prevent calamities and how to preserve life. Factors like social inequality and the no effectiviness of social politics, among them the housing politic, makes the risk condition and vulnerability even worse for a large segment of the population and, the Civil Defense appears as a emergency politic adressed to serve this population. It has been adopted the perspective of social representations, and, the qualitative listening approach of the individuals, through semi-structured interviews. With the confrontation of the speeches, the results indicate, that the risk representation has been constructed in a dialect of affirmation of the phenomenon and refusal of it. Valuable aspects intervene in this construction. For the techinicians, to step out of the risk is to guarantee life and, for the population , the vulnerability, in other words, the necessity for survivel overlays the existence of the risk.
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Parenteau, Marie-Pierre. „Air Pollution and Health: Toward Improving the Spatial Definition of Exposure, Susceptibility and Risk“. Thèse, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/19928.
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The role of the spatial representation in the relation between chronic exposure to NO2 and respiratory health outcomes is studied through a spatial approach encompassing three conceptual components: the geography of susceptibility, the geography of exposure and the geography of risk. A spatially explicit methodology that defined natural neighbourhoods for the city of Ottawa is presented; it became the geography of analysis in this research. A LUR model for Ottawa is developed to study the geography of exposure. Model sensitivity to the spatial representation of population showed that dasymetric population mapping did not provide significant improvements to the LUR model over population at the dissemination block level. However, both the former were significantly better than population represented at the dissemination area. Spatial representation in the geography of exposure was also evaluated by comparing four kriging and cokriging interpolation models to the LUR. Geostatistically derived NO2 concentration maps were weakly correlated with LUR model results. The relationship between mean NO2 concentrations and respiratory health outcomes was assessed within the natural neighbourhoods. We find a statistically significant association between NO2 concentrations and respiratory health outcomes as measured by global bivariate Moran’s I. However, for regression model building, NO2 had to be forced into the model, demonstrating that NO2 is not one of the main contributing variables to respiratory health outcomes in Ottawa. The results point toward the importance of the socioeconomic status on the health condition of individuals. Finally, the role of spatial representation was assessed using three different spatial structures, which also permitted to better understand the role of the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) in the study of the relationship between exposure to NO2 and health. The results confirm that NO2 concentration is not a major contributing factor to the respiratory health in Ottawa but clearly demonstrate the implications that the use of opportunistic administrative boundaries can have on results of exposure studies. The effects of the MAUP, the scale effect and the zoning effect, were observed indicating that a spatial structure that embodies the scale of major social processes behind the health condition of individuals should be used when possible.
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Jadidi, Mardkheh Amaneh. „Towards development of fuzzy spatial datacubes : fundamental concepts with example for multidimensional coastal erosion risk assessment and representation“. Doctoral thesis, Université Laval, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/25589.
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Les systèmes actuels de base de données géodécisionnels (GeoBI) ne tiennent généralement pas compte de l'incertitude liée à l'imprécision et le flou des objets; ils supposent que les objets ont une sémantique, une géométrie et une temporalité bien définies et précises. Un exemple de cela est la représentation des zones à risque par des polygones avec des limites bien définies. Ces polygones sont créés en utilisant des agrégations d'un ensemble d'unités spatiales définies sur soit des intérêts des organismes responsables ou les divisions de recensement national. Malgré la variation spatio-temporelle des multiples critères impliqués dans l’analyse du risque, chaque polygone a une valeur unique de risque attribué de façon homogène sur l'étendue du territoire. En réalité, la valeur du risque change progressivement d'un polygone à l'autre. Le passage d'une zone à l'autre n'est donc pas bien représenté avec les modèles d’objets bien définis (crisp). Cette thèse propose des concepts fondamentaux pour le développement d'une approche combinant le paradigme GeoBI et le concept flou de considérer la présence de l’incertitude spatiale dans la représentation des zones à risque. En fin de compte, nous supposons cela devrait améliorer l’analyse du risque. Pour ce faire, un cadre conceptuel est développé pour créer un model conceptuel d’une base de donnée multidimensionnelle avec une application pour l’analyse du risque d’érosion côtier. Ensuite, une approche de la représentation des risques fondée sur la logique floue est développée pour traiter l'incertitude spatiale inhérente liée à l'imprécision et le flou des objets. Pour cela, les fonctions d'appartenance floues sont définies en basant sur l’indice de vulnérabilité qui est un composant important du risque. Au lieu de déterminer les limites bien définies entre les zones à risque, l'approche proposée permet une transition en douceur d'une zone à une autre. Les valeurs d'appartenance de plusieurs indicateurs sont ensuite agrégées basées sur la formule des risques et les règles SI-ALORS de la logique floue pour représenter les zones à risque. Ensuite, les éléments clés d'un cube de données spatiales floues sont formalisés en combinant la théorie des ensembles flous et le paradigme de GeoBI. En plus, certains opérateurs d'agrégation spatiale floue sont présentés. En résumé, la principale contribution de cette thèse se réfère de la combinaison de la théorie des ensembles flous et le paradigme de GeoBI. Cela permet l’extraction de connaissances plus compréhensibles et appropriées avec le raisonnement humain à partir de données spatiales et non-spatiales. Pour ce faire, un cadre conceptuel a été proposé sur la base de paradigme GéoBI afin de développer un cube de données spatiale floue dans le system de Spatial Online Analytical Processing (SOLAP) pour évaluer le risque de l'érosion côtière. Cela nécessite d'abord d'élaborer un cadre pour concevoir le modèle conceptuel basé sur les paramètres de risque, d'autre part, de mettre en œuvre l’objet spatial flou dans une base de données spatiales multidimensionnelle, puis l'agrégation des objets spatiaux flous pour envisager à la représentation multi-échelle des zones à risque. Pour valider l'approche proposée, elle est appliquée à la région Perce (Est du Québec, Canada) comme une étude de cas.Current Geospatial Business Intelligence (GeoBI) systems typically do not take into account the uncertainty related to vagueness and fuzziness of objects; they assume that the objects have well-defined and exact semantics, geometry, and temporality. Representation of fuzzy zones by polygons with well-defined boundaries is an example of such approximation. This thesis uses an application in Coastal Erosion Risk Analysis (CERA) to illustrate the problems. CERA polygons are created using aggregations of a set of spatial units defined by either the stakeholders’ interests or national census divisions. Despite spatiotemporal variation of the multiple criteria involved in estimating the extent of coastal erosion risk, each polygon typically has a unique value of risk attributed homogeneously across its spatial extent. In reality, risk value changes gradually within polygons and when going from one polygon to another. Therefore, the transition from one zone to another is not properly represented with crisp object models. The main objective of the present thesis is to develop a new approach combining GeoBI paradigm and fuzzy concept to consider the presence of the spatial uncertainty in the representation of risk zones. Ultimately, we assume this should improve coastal erosion risk assessment. To do so, a comprehensive GeoBI-based conceptual framework is developed with an application for Coastal Erosion Risk Assessment (CERA). Then, a fuzzy-based risk representation approach is developed to handle the inherent spatial uncertainty related to vagueness and fuzziness of objects. Fuzzy membership functions are defined by an expert-based vulnerability index. Instead of determining well-defined boundaries between risk zones, the proposed approach permits a smooth transition from one zone to another. The membership values of multiple indicators (e.g. slop and elevation of region under study, infrastructures, houses, hydrology network and so on) are then aggregated based on risk formula and Fuzzy IF-THEN rules to represent risk zones. Also, the key elements of a fuzzy spatial datacube are formally defined by combining fuzzy set theory and GeoBI paradigm. In this regard, some operators of fuzzy spatial aggregation are also formally defined. The main contribution of this study is combining fuzzy set theory and GeoBI. This makes spatial knowledge discovery more understandable with human reasoning and perception. Hence, an analytical conceptual framework was proposed based on GeoBI paradigm to develop a fuzzy spatial datacube within Spatial Online Analytical Processing (SOLAP) to assess coastal erosion risk. This necessitates developing a framework to design a conceptual model based on risk parameters, implementing fuzzy spatial objects in a spatial multi-dimensional database, and aggregating fuzzy spatial objects to deal with multi-scale representation of risk zones. To validate the proposed approach, it is applied to Perce region (Eastern Quebec, Canada) as a case study.
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Casey, Maxine Austin. „Proportional Representation of Students with Disabilities Based on Race, Gender, and Socio-Economic Status in Virginia“. Diss., Virginia Tech, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/85469.
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For more than three decades, research has shown that the special education referral, identification, and placement processes can be discriminatory (Artiles, Rueda, Salazar, and Higareda, 2005). Proportionately, there are more minority students of low socio-economic status than are White students in special education categories that are the high incidence special education categories. Students with high-incidence disabilities make up 80% of all students with disabilities. High-Incidence disabilities share these characteristics, (1) often hard to distinguish from students without disabilities, especially in non-school settings, (2) often display a combination of academic, and (3) behavioral and social problems (Friend and Bursuck, 2012).
Special Education licensure and endorsement varies from state to state, as does the terminology used in describing the knowledge that is required and the students to whom it applies. In most states students identified for special education services for the categories of Intellectual Disability (ID), Specific Learning Disability (SLD) and students with Emotional Disturbance (ED) are identified as high- incidence disabilities.
The purpose of this study was to investigate the status of relative representation of male and female, minority, and low socioeconomic students with disabilities served in special education programs across 132 public school divisions within eight Superintendent']s regions in the 2013-14 school year, as published by the Virginia Department of Education. Data from the Virginia Department Education (VDOE) were analyzed to present an analysis of three categories of the special education populations (ID, SLD and ED), racial, (Black and Hispanic) and socio-economic status.
Findings indicated that fewer than 50% of the school divisions in the Commonwealth of Virginia showed disproportionality, however when examined by Superintendent's regions there were some geographical areas that showed some concentrations of disproportionality.Ed. D.
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Estrada, Díaz Gabriela. „Mise en pratique de la politique de prévention de catastrophes au Mexique : Enjeux en milieu urbain : Le cas de la ville de Minatitlán“. Thesis, Paris Est, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PESC1076/document.
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La thèse part d'une interrogation sur la mesure dans laquelle l'État mexicain s'est doté des moyens de réponse vis à vis les défis en matière de prévention des risques majeurs. Si le pays est plutôt bien préparé pour affronter l'urgence et qu'on arrive à reconstruire les infrastructures endommagées lors des événements catastrophiques grâce aux moyens financiers mis à disposition, force est de reconnaître que les catastrophes naturelles comme technologiques se produisent à répétition et qu'on n'arrive pas à aménager le territoire de sorte que les dangers existants ne deviennent pas des catastrophes, notamment en milieu urbain.Le cas d'étude, la ville de Minatitlán, dévoile les enjeux et carences de l'intervention de l'État en matière de prévention de risques. À Minatitlán, la nature est sévère et produit des inondations à répétition, mais l'humain a eu sa part de responsabilité au moment de choisir une localisation difficile pour l'implantation d'un peuplement. Plus tard, les conditions de l'urbanisation et production de l'habitat se sont peu souciées de réduire les dangers. L'implantation de l'industrie pétrolière dans la région n'a fait qu'accroître la pression urbaine et rendu plus difficile le contrôle de l'urbanisation spontanée et la sécurisation des logements. Apparaît ainsi une situation de risque qui concerne plusieurs milliers d'habitants et dont l'issue n'est pas claire vu les carences de l'action publique en matière d'aménagement urbain et prévention des risques majeurs.Le questionnement ultime de cette recherche se trouve dans les conditions de mise en opération de la politique de prévention de risques majeurs au Mexique, à savoir, les enjeux locaux, géographiques, socio-économiques, institutionnels et socio-culturels, qui vont conditionner son efficacité. Le cadre conceptuel choisi pour structurer cette thèse repose sur une compréhension des milieux urbains et leur vulnérabilité, dans leur multi-dimensionnalité.La thèse se structure en trois parties. La première pose les bases de l'étude dans le but de comprendre comment il fallait approcher le cas d'étude. La seconde partie de la thèse fait deux analyses qui reposent sur des documents et données assez facilement accessibles au Mexique. Une troisième et dernière partie porte sur les facteurs socio-culturels de vulnérabilité, et notamment sur la représentation sociale du risque et de la catastrophe, puisqu'elle a un impact direct sur les réactions individuelles et collectives face aux risques et aux sinistres.Le cas de Minatitlán confirme l'étroite relation entre le développement urbain et les dangers d'un site. La compréhension du risque comme opportunité et son lien indissociable avec l'histoire de la ville permet d'expliquer les traits de l'urbanisation à Minatitlán. La recherche constate que dans la configuration actuelle du paysage institutionnel et social autour de la problématique des risques, bien de groupes sociaux et institutionnels s'y accommodent de la situation actuelle, peu propice à un véritable accroissement de la résilience de la ville de Minatitlán face aux risques qui peuvent s'aggraver dans un contexte de réchauffement de la planète.La politique de protection civile privilégiée par le Mexique, guide une action publique pyramidale du haut vers le bas, où chaque échelon du gouvernement contribue à la gestion de la catastrophe selon ses moyens. Au bout de cette chaîne d'intervention se trouvent les sinistrés, chez qui on a estompé toute initiative de participation active à la prévention.Dans cet état de choses, il semble peu probable qu'un changement dans l'approche de l'action publique se produise dans le futur proche : le cadre institutionnel se consolide de plus en plus dans sa configuration actuelle, et les populations qui auraient intérêt à ce que les choses évoluent, n'articulent aucune demande dans ce sensThis dissertation explores the responses developed by the Mexican government for tackling the challenges presented by natural and man-made risks. The country counts indeed with a number of strategies for managing emergencies, and it performs quite well on reconstructing infrastructures and facilities on the aftermath of the numerous natural disasters that afflict its territory every year. This is possible thanks to the financial means available for reconstruction in the national annual budget. However, the recurrence of natural and man-made disasters, indicate a lack of planning policies and practices that could actually prevent that the existing risks become real disasters, specially in urban areas.The case of study is the city of Minatitlán. This city offers an example of how the disaster prevention policy lacks effectiveness on reducing major risks. In Minatitlán, nature is harsh and inflicts recurring floods in its territory, but human groups have certainly some responsibility in the repetition of disasters since they choose a location rather inadequate for urbanization, and implemented low-resilient development patterns. When oil industry established in the area, it reinforced the characteristics of urbanization (illegal settlements) and contributed to weaken the resistance of the settlement to disasters.At the heart of this study lays an interrogation about the operational conditions of a national disaster prevention policy in Mexico, given the local conditions that intervene in its effectiveness: geographical, socio-economical, institutional and socio-cultural frames. Therefore, the study focuses on a global comprehension of urban systems and how different elements relate to produce a specific condition of vulnerability, taking into account the multi-dimensionality of the concept.The study is presented in three parts. The first one explores the theoretical framework of the following analysis. In the second part, a couple of analysis relied on the use of public information rather accessible in Mexico. The data and texts were used with a laying interrogation about the indications they could give about the risk situations in Mexican urban settlements. Finally, the third part of the dissertation focuses on exploring the socio-cultural factors of vulnerability, namely the social representation of risk, under the premise that it has a major impact on individual and social behavior in risk (and disasters) situations.The case of Minatitlán confirms the tight links among risks and urban development. In this city, the risk has historically represented an opportunity for development. The institutional framework for risk prevention emerges well after the city was a consolidated urban settlement, but it has not been able to offer substantial changes and one can conclude that the current situation arranges a number of groups that do not see any incentive for improving the prevention strategies or enforcing planning measures. Then, a transition towards more resilient scenarios, specially in a context of climate change, is not foreseeable in the coming years.Moreover, the civil protection policy in Mexico favors a top-down public intervention in disaster periods, where each government level intervenes up to their financial and physical powers. At the lowest end of this chain, are local populations, the victims of disasters, are not encouraged to participate or become actual actors of local prevention.This being the current state of affairs in Minatitlán, the public action as well as the social representation of risks and disasters, are both contributing to maintaining a situation where prevention is not the main goal of the disaster policy
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Alfredsson, Therese, und Amanda Erlandsson. „"VIKTIG INFORMATION TILL SVERIGES INVÅNARE" -En kvalitativ innehållsanalys av Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskaps broschyr "Om krisen eller kriget kommer"“. Thesis, Örebro universitet, Institutionen för humaniora, utbildnings- och samhällsvetenskap, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-71918.
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With changes in the outside world and that we are constantly faced with potential risks, the effectiveness of risk communication has become a decisive factor. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the Swedish Civil Protection and Preparedness Authority (MSB) has adopted principles for effective risk communication and how they have designed their communication to best prepare citizens for potential crisis. The study also aims to examine how the communication features an image of the nation and how roles in society during a crisis are represented. To achieve this purpose, a normative and critical multimodal method has been applied to MSB:s risk communication in the form of the brochure "If crisis or war comes". The result of the study has shown that MSB largely adopts the principles of effective risk communication, but some parts of the brochure can be viewed as fairly misleading and have underlying ideas that may lead to undesired effects. The image of the nation in the brochure is produced as rational by describing the authorities and citizens as reasonably and active, which in some ways can be useful in gaining trust from the recipient but can also contradict in getting the people to act.
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Smith, Jennifer Yvette. „Proportional Representation of Students with Disabilities based on Race, Gender and Socio-Economic Status in Virginia 2008-2009 and 2013-2014: Has it changed?“ Diss., Virginia Tech, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/98533.
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Although there are strong opinions both for and against identifying exceptional children, it is important school divisions as well as schools ensure that student sub groups are not overrepresented in special education.
The purpose of this study was to determine the representation of students in special education by category (SWD, ED, SLD, and ID) and by demographic identifier (Ethnicity, Gender, SES) for 2008-2009 and to determine changes in representation between 2008-2009 and 2013-2014 in the 132 school divisions in the Commonwealth of Virginia. The 2013-2014 data reported in the Casey (2017) study were used in this study. In addition, this study examined specific disability categories by race, gender, and socioeconomic status from all 132 Virginia public school divisions and compared data from 2008-2009 to data from 2013-2014.
Data for the study were retrieved from the Virginia Department of Education (VDOE) related to specific categories. Findings included a comparison of the data for 2008-2009 and 2013-2014. In 2008-2009 some data were missing, which may have contributed to the limited findings. Overrepresentation was determined through the use of the standard 10 formula for overrepresentation.
Findings for 2008-2009 revealed that Black students were identified as over represented in the area of Intellectual Disabilities (ID) in 2% of the school divisions in the Commonwealth of Virginia. In the school year 2008-2009, 0% of school divisions identified Hispanic students as disproportionate in the areas of ID, Students with Disabilities (SWD), Specific Learning Disabilities (SLD), and Emotionally Disturbed (ED). In the 2008-2009 school year, 2% of the school divisions in Virginia identified economically disadvantaged students as disproportionate in the disability category SWD, and 20% of the school divisions identified economically disadvantaged students as disproportionate in the disability category SLD. Additionally, 17% of the school divisions identified economically disadvantaged students as disproportionate in the disability category ED, and 38% percent of the school divisions in Virginia identified economically disadvantaged students as disproportionate in the disability category ID. The 2008-2009 data, when compared to the 2013-2014 data, were less disproportionate.EDD
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LIBRACE, GIOVANNI. „La gestione dei rischi d'impresa nelle operazioni di finanza straordinaria“. Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/268.
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La presente tesi di dottorato affronta il tema della gestione dei rischi che ha assunto sempre maggiore importanza nella vita dell'impresa. E'importante per tutti gli stakeholder, dai dipendenti agli azionisti, comprendere quale sia il trade - off tra rischio e rendimento potenziale poiché la mancata identificazione dei rischi e la loro non corretta gestione può compromettere la capacità dell'impresa di raggiungere i propri obiettivi.
Dopo aver introdotto il concetto di rischio, la tesi si sofferma sul modello dell'Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) e sui benefici associati al suo utilizzo. In particolare l'attenzione viene posta sull'importanza, all'atto di un'operazione di natura straordinaria, quale un'acquisizione o la quotazione su mercati regolamentati, della valutazione dei rischi e delle risposte che l'organizzazione pone in essere. Viene illustrato il processo di due diligence e, in particolare, la due diligence assicurativa e di risk management viene indicata quale valido strumento per comprendere quali siano i rischi a cui un'impresa è esposta e come essa li gestisca. In conclusione, vengono descritte alcune soluzioni (i.e. assicurazione delle representation & warranty, assicurazione della responsabilità da prospetto informativo, assicurazioni ambientali) utilizzabili dall'impresa, durante una transazione, per mitigare il proprio profilo di rischio trasferendo particolari rischi a mercati assicurativi specializzati.This thesis outlines the importance that risk management is getting in the life of organizations. Stakeholders, ranging from employees to investors, must understand how to quantify the tradeoffs of risk against the potential return, because the failure to identify and manage the essential nature of risk can have consequences on the possibility for an organization to achieve its objectives. After introducing the concept of risk, it is analyzed the Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) approach and the benefits for companies that decide to adopt it. In particular there is a focus on its importance in some circumstances in the life of an organization and it is shown how evaluation of risk profile and responses can be critical in mergers and acquisitions, public offer of securities and other corporate finance decisions. Due diligence process and, in particular, risk management and insurance due diligence is described as an effective instrument to understand to what risks a company is exposed to and how it manages them. In conclusion, some transaction solutions (i.e. representations & warranties insurance, public offering of securities insurance, environmental solutions) - that can be used to mitigate the company risk profile, transferring some risks to specialized insurance markets - are illustrated.
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LIBRACE, GIOVANNI. „La gestione dei rischi d'impresa nelle operazioni di finanza straordinaria“. Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/268.
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La presente tesi di dottorato affronta il tema della gestione dei rischi che ha assunto sempre maggiore importanza nella vita dell'impresa. E'importante per tutti gli stakeholder, dai dipendenti agli azionisti, comprendere quale sia il trade - off tra rischio e rendimento potenziale poiché la mancata identificazione dei rischi e la loro non corretta gestione può compromettere la capacità dell'impresa di raggiungere i propri obiettivi.
Dopo aver introdotto il concetto di rischio, la tesi si sofferma sul modello dell'Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) e sui benefici associati al suo utilizzo. In particolare l'attenzione viene posta sull'importanza, all'atto di un'operazione di natura straordinaria, quale un'acquisizione o la quotazione su mercati regolamentati, della valutazione dei rischi e delle risposte che l'organizzazione pone in essere. Viene illustrato il processo di due diligence e, in particolare, la due diligence assicurativa e di risk management viene indicata quale valido strumento per comprendere quali siano i rischi a cui un'impresa è esposta e come essa li gestisca. In conclusione, vengono descritte alcune soluzioni (i.e. assicurazione delle representation & warranty, assicurazione della responsabilità da prospetto informativo, assicurazioni ambientali) utilizzabili dall'impresa, durante una transazione, per mitigare il proprio profilo di rischio trasferendo particolari rischi a mercati assicurativi specializzati.This thesis outlines the importance that risk management is getting in the life of organizations. Stakeholders, ranging from employees to investors, must understand how to quantify the tradeoffs of risk against the potential return, because the failure to identify and manage the essential nature of risk can have consequences on the possibility for an organization to achieve its objectives. After introducing the concept of risk, it is analyzed the Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) approach and the benefits for companies that decide to adopt it. In particular there is a focus on its importance in some circumstances in the life of an organization and it is shown how evaluation of risk profile and responses can be critical in mergers and acquisitions, public offer of securities and other corporate finance decisions. Due diligence process and, in particular, risk management and insurance due diligence is described as an effective instrument to understand to what risks a company is exposed to and how it manages them. In conclusion, some transaction solutions (i.e. representations & warranties insurance, public offering of securities insurance, environmental solutions) - that can be used to mitigate the company risk profile, transferring some risks to specialized insurance markets - are illustrated.
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Schallier, Phillipe. „Designing a safety management support system using open architecture databases: the requirements of information representation in the support of managers' risk-related decision-making“. Thesis, Aston University, 2000. http://publications.aston.ac.uk/11765/.
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This research was conducted at the Space Research and Technology Centre o the European Space Agency at Noordvijk in the Netherlands. ESA is an international organisation that brings together a range of scientists, engineers and managers from 14 European member states. The motivation for the work was to enable decision-makers, in a culturally and technologically diverse organisation, to share information for the purpose of making decisions that are well informed about the risk-related aspects of the situations they seek to address. The research examined the use of decision support system DSS) technology to facilitate decision-making of this type. This involved identifying the technology available and its application to risk management. Decision-making is a complex activity that does not lend itself to exact measurement or precise understanding at a detailed level. In view of this, a prototype DSS was developed through which to understand the practical issues to be accommodated and to evaluate alternative approaches to supporting decision-making of this type. The problem of measuring the effect upon the quality of decisions has been approached through expert evaluation of the software developed. The practical orientation of this work was informed by a review of the relevant literature in decision-making, risk management, decision support and information technology. Communication and information technology unite the major the,es of this work. This allows correlation of the interests of the research with European public policy. The principles of communication were also considered in the topic of information visualisation - this emerging technology exploits flexible modes of human computer interaction (HCI) to improve the cognition of complex data. Risk management is itself an area characterised by complexity and risk visualisation is advocated for application in this field of endeavour. The thesis provides recommendations for future work in the fields of decision=making, DSS technology and risk management.
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PERI, ILARIA. „Quasi-convex risk measures and acceptability indices. Theory and applications“. Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10281/29745.
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This thesis is organized in two parts: in the first one, we treat risk measures and acceptability indices from a theoretical point of view, while in the second part, we propose two applications of the quasi-convex results.
The first contribute of the thesis regards the dual representation of quasi-convex and monotone maps. In particular, we compare the dual representation proposed by Cerreia-Vioglio et al (2011) and Drapeau and Kupper (2010) and we prove that they coincide. On the light of this comparison, we also propose a new representation for the quasi-concave and monotone acceptability indices.
In the second part of the thesis we propose two different applications of the quasi-
convex analysis to different sectors. The common idea has been to build a quasi-convex risk measure defining a particular family of acceptability sets, taking inspiration from the papers of Cherny and Madan (2009) and Drapeau and Kupper (2010).
The first application is to the financial sector. We introduce a new class of law invariant risk measures, directly defined on the set P(R) of probability measures on R, that are monotone and quasi-convex on P(R). We build these maps by an appropriate family of acceptance sets of distribution functions. We study the properties of such maps and we provide some example.
In particular, we propose a generalization of the classical notion of the V@R_λ, called ΛV@R, that takes into account not only the probability λ of the losses, but the balance between such probability and the amount of the loss. The V@R_λ and other known law invariant risk measures turn out to be special cases of our proposal.
We further prove the dual representation of Risk Measures on P(R).
The second application is to the evaluation of the scientific research. We introduce
a new family of scientific performance measures, called Scientific Research
Measures (SRM). This proposal originates from the recent developments in the theory of quasi-convex risk measures and is an attempt to resolve the many problems of the existing bibliometric indices.
The key idea underlying the definition of SRM is the representation of quasi-concave monotone maps in terms of a family of acceptance sets.
Through this approach, the SRMs are: flexible to fit peculiarities of different areas and seniorities; inclusive, as they comprehend several popular indices; coherent, as they share the same structural properties; calibrated to the particular scientific community; granular, as they allow a more precise comparison between scientists and are based on the whole scientist’s citation curve.
We also provide a dual representation of a SRM, that suggests a new interesting approach to the whole area of bibliometric indices.
Finally, we present a method to compute a particular SRM, called φ-index, and some result obtained by the calibration to a specific scientific sector.
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Væver, Kronborg Katja. „The Stockholm Terror Attack 2017 : How Domestic and International Online News Media Framed the Act and Empowered Involved Actors“. Thesis, Högskolan för lärande och kommunikation, Högskolan i Jönköping, HLK, Medie- och kommunikationsvetenskap, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-40859.
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The aim of this comparative study has been to identify similarities and differences in Swedish and British media’s framing and empowerment of actors in relation to the 2017 Stockholm terror attack. Theories on the risk society, framing, power and CDA have been used to create a framework that gives a deeper understanding of media’s role in framing actors and events, and how this can potentially affect the public. Moreover, to determine how media use their power to dis- tribute power among the actors and objects that are part of such an attack. A critical discourse analysis has been carried out on excerpts from a total of 15 articles, seven and six from Sweden and Britain respectively. In this analysis, both framing and power issues were identified, which was used to conduct a discussion on the findings in relation to the the- oretical framework used. It was found that while Sweden and Britain are part of the same culture and therefore largely covered the terror attack the same way, there was a significant difference in the portrayal of the perpetrator. Swedish media had a tendency to use othering and describe the perpetrator as one of “them” as opposed to the “we”. British media, on the other hand, made use of other- ing as well, but would also offer descriptions that could make the “we” relate to him. This difference can potentially be due to the fact that Swedes have been more emotional about the attack, as it happened in their own country. The distribution of power between actors were done similarly in both countries. Two power- plays were identified: the police vs. the perpetrator, and the act (the truck) vs. the public. In order to avoid giving the perpetrator credit for the act, when the act was portrayed, the truck would be described as the powerful actor. Thus, even though it is common sense that the truck did not drive into people on itself, the perpetrator’s actions has not been acknowledged in the media. Instead, when describing the perpetrator, it has been done in relation to the police, who were described as the powerful actors – they caught the perpetrator, i.e. he did not have the power to avoid them or escape. Thus, while Swedish and British media largely have covered the act the same way and with the same means, the Swedish media have used emotional means to further othering.
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Johnson, David G. „Representations of uncertainty in risk analysis“. Thesis, Loughborough University, 1998. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/31941.
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Uncertainty in situations involving risk is frequently modelled by assuming a plausible form of probability distribution for the uncertain quantities involved, and estimating the relevant parameters of that distribution based on the knowledge and judgement of informed experts or decision makers. The distributions assumed are usually uni-modal (and often bell-shaped) around some most likely value, with the Normal, Beta, Gamma and Triangular distributions being popular choices.
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Leite, Vanusa Claudete Anastácio Usier. „INFECÇÕES NO MEIO AMBIENTE HOSPITALAR: REPRESENTAÇÕES SOCIAIS DE PROFISSIONAIS COM ATUAÇÃO EM UNIDADE DE TERAPIA INTENSIVA - GOIÂNIA GO“. Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Goiás, 2009. http://localhost:8080/tede/handle/tede/3093.
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Previous issue date: 2009-08-26Nosocomial infection is a problem found all over the world, being responsible for the increase of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The objective of this study is: to know the social representation (SR) of the nosocomial infection (NI) for nurses and physician who work in the intensive care unit (ICU), aiming to discover the aspects that are probably related to the adoption or not of preventive conducts against nosocomial infection. This is a transversal study carried out in hospitals of Goiania city in the years of 2007 and 2008. A hundred nurses and physicians that worked in ICU participated in the study. It was executed in two stages. In the first one, an instrument with three questions that had different approaches to the theme was elaborated: the first question evokes specifically the theme of nosocomial infection; the second is to identify the five main risk factors related to nosocomial infection found in ICU; based on the answers emitted by the concerning subjects of the second question, it was solicited in the third question that the subjects explained why they considered the two first answers, of question number two, as an important risk factor for NI. The answers to the first questioning were processed in the EVOC software, after the construction of a data base, preparation of which was preceded by the organization of the dictionary containing words brought forward by the subjects. The answers to the second and the third questions were categorized according to groups in which the significance of frequency resembled. After this stage, with the intent of verifying the centrality of the elements identified in the first stage of the study, a second instrument was built from the subjects' speech regarding the main risks of NI in ICU. This instrument consists of two questions: the first is in the form of the Likert School; and the second made with nine items and three alternatives. A table was built at the end of this stage containing the frequency of the variables. After the creation of a dada bank using the Excel software, for the first question the dada were transferred to the SPSS Version 16 software and for the second question a graphic of lines was created. Results: the words hand washing (46%), gravity / immunosuppression (43%), multiresistante bacteria (29%) and invasive procedures (18%) appeared in the evoking question, which are central in the representation. The majority of the professionals that participated in the study pointed out the hand washing (42%), immunodepression / gravity of the case (41%) and the existence of a multiresistante microorganism (39%) as the main risk factors for NI. Conclusion: In this context, the structural study of the social representation of nosocomial infection allows us to formulate a hypothesis where the subjects elaborated a evaluative type of thinking that show some risk factors that don t annul themselves completely by washing the hands, in spite of the fact that the subjects adopted the belief in which the hygienic cleaning of the hands is a determining factor of prevention.
As infecções hospitalares são problemas encontrados em todo o mundo, sendo responsáveis pelo aumento da morbidade e mortalidade. Este estudo tem por objetivo: conhecer a representação social (RS) de infecção hospitalar, para enfermeiros e médicos que trabalham em UTI, buscando identificar os aspectos provavelmente relacionados à adoção ou não de condutas preventivas contra a infecção hospitalar. Trata-se de um estudo transversal realizado em hospitais da cidade de Goiânia no ano de 2007 a 2008. Participaram do estudo 100 (cem) enfermeiros e médicos que trabalham em UTI. O estudo foi realizado em duas etapas. Na primeira, foi elaborado um instrumento com três perguntas com abordagens diferentes ao tema: a primeira com questão de evocação ao tema Infecção Hospitalar (IH), especificamente. A segunda para identificar os cinco principais fatores de risco relacionados com infecção hospitalar encontrados em UTI. Com base nas respostas emitidas pelos sujeitos referentes à segunda questão, foi solicitado, na terceira questão, que os sujeitos explicassem por que consideravam as duas primeiras respostas, da questão de número dois, como um importante fator de risco para IH. As respostas ao primeiro questionamento foram processadas no software EVOC, após a construção do banco de dados, cuja preparação foi precedida da organização do dicionário contendo palavras produzidas pelo sujeito. As respostas a segunda e a terceira questão foram categorizadas conforme grupos de semelhança de seu significado de freqüência. Após essa etapa, com intuito de verificação da centralidade de elementos identificados na primeira fase do estudo, um segundo instrumento foi construído a partir das falas dos sujeitos acerca dos principais fatores de risco para IH em UTI. Esse instrumento constou de duas questões: a primeira na forma de Escala de likert, a segunda foi feita com nove itens e três alternativas. Ao término dessa etapa foi construída uma tabela contendo as freqüências das variáveis, após a criação de um banco de dados utilizando o programa de software Excel, onde os dados foram transferidos para o programa do software SPSS Versão 16, para a primeira questão e criação de gráfico de linha , para a questão de caracterização. Resultados: na questão de evocação aparecem as palavras lavagem das mãos (46%), gravidade / imunosupressão (43%), bactérias multiresistentes (29%) e procedimentos invasivos (18%), as quais são centrais na representação. A maioria dos profissionais que participaram do estudo apontou a lavagem das mãos (42%), imunodepressão / gravidade do caso (41%) e a existência de microrganismos multiresistentes (39%) como os principais fatores relacionados ao fator de risco para IH. Conclusão: Nesse contexto, o estudo estrutural das RS de IH nos permite formular a hipótese que, apesar dos sujeitos adotarem a crença da higienização das mãos como fator determinante de prevenção, os sujeitos elaboram um raciocínio do tipo avaliativo que apontam alguns fatores de risco que não se anulam completamente pela lavagem das mãos.
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Santiago, Romero Carol Jimena, und Requena Fiorella Thalia Tataje. „Conductas de riesgo y representación de estilos de apego en adolescentes de un colegio limeño“. Bachelor's thesis, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC), 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/653195.
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El objetivo del presente trabajo es correlacionar las conductas de riesgo y representación de estilos de apego en adolescentes. La muestra estuvo conformada por 177 escolares cuyas edades oscilan entre 12 y 17 años. Los instrumentos empleados fueron el Cuestionario de Evaluación Cognitiva de Eventos de Riesgo (Fromme, Katz & Rivet, 1997) y la Versión Reducida del Cuestionario CaMir para la evaluación del apego adaptado a Perú (Valenzuela, 2014). Los resultados indican que se ha encontrado una correlación inversa, baja y significativa entre Seguridad: Disponibilidad y apoyo de figuras de apego con Conductas agresivas (r = -.189, p < .05), Conductas académicas irresponsables (r = -.199, p < .05) y Conductas sexuales de riesgo (r = -.149, p < .05).The purpose of this work was to correlate risk behaviors with the representative attachment styles among adolescents in a school in Lima. Participants were 177 adolescents ranging in age from 12 to 17 years. Two instruments were used to measure the variables: the CaMir-R (Valenzuela, 2014) and the CARE (Fromme, Katz & Rivet, 1997). The results showed that there is an inverse, low and significant correlation between Safety: Availability and attachment figure supports with Aggressive behaviors (r = -.189, p < .05), Irresponsible academic behaviors (r = -.199, p < .05) and Risky Sexual Behaviors (r = -.149, p < .05). On the other hand, there were significant, direct and low correlation between the factors.
Tesis
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Zare, mahmoudabadi Mohsen. „Shared representation of work-related musculoskeletal risk factors and comparison of assessment methods : an experimental study in the truck manufacturing industry Evaluation of Ergonomic Approach and Musculoskeletal Disorders in Two Different Organizations in a Truck Assembly Plant A comparison of neck bending and flexion measurement methods for assessment of risk“. Thesis, Angers, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015ANGE0075.
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Les facteurs de risque de troubles musculo-squelettiques(TMS) tels que les facteurs physiques, organisationnels et psychosociaux sont un défi commun pour les industries de l'assemblage automobile qui entrainent des effets indésirables sur le système et les humains. L’ergonomie a déjà été intégrée dans les systèmes de production de ces industries pour la prise en charge de la prévention des TMS. La question est de savoir si l'approche ergonomique actuelle des industries automobiles, sur la base de normes à l'entreprise et des méthodes d'observation, peut fournir une connaissance partagée des facteurs ergonomiques pour les divers intervenants et pour faciliter l'amélioration des conditions de travail. Cette étude aborde la problématique du positionnement des différents méthodes d'évaluation (utilisées par les différents intervenants) et compare les résultats et apports de chaque méthode d'évaluation. Cette thèse propose que la procédure actuelle d'évaluation des risques de TMS ne favorise pas une connaissance partagée entre les intervenants dans les industries automobiles. On constate que les évaluations par auto-questionnaire (opérateurs) sont significativement différentes de celles issues des méthodes d'observation (ergonome) et des mesures directes (analyse biomécanique). Cependant, les opinions et jugements des opérateurs concernant les facteurs ergonomiques sont importants pour faciliter la réussite d'une approche ergonomique. Un entretien structuré et systématisé, basé sur des données objectives (Video-observations ou de mesure directe) liées aux activités et stratégies des opérateurs, pourrait être une procédure appropriée pour faire progresser l'ergonomie des situations de travail. Enfin, la connaissance tirée de cette thèse souligne que la variabilité des tâches dans l’industrie automobile nécessite une approche ergonomique qui partage les connaissances des risques entre les intervenants. Dans cette approche, les attitudes et les comportements des opérateurs sont pris en compte dans les projets d’amélioration continue. De plus, la participation des intervenants devrait être intégrée afin d'améliorer la prise en compte de l'ergonomie dans la production. Une synthèse de cette thèse en Français a été fournie dans l’annexe premièreMusculoskeletal risk factors such as physical, organizational and psychosocial factors are a common challenge for the automotive assembly industries and result in adverse human and system effects. Ergonomics has already been integrated inthe production systems of such factories to eliminate work related musculoskeletal disorders (WR-MSDs). The issue is whether the current ergonomic approach of car industries, based on corporate standards and observational methods, can provide a shared knowledge of ergonomic factors for various stakeholders and facilitate ergonomic improvement. This study focuses on the positioning of the different assessment methods (used by various stakeholders), agreement between their results in evaluation of physical risk factors and the influence of intervention and improvement following ergonomic assessment. This thesis proposes that the current procedure of risk factor assessment can not provide ashared knowledge and representation of risks between stakeholders in manufacturing industries. It was found that the operators’ assessments of risk factors (self-reported questionnaire) were significantly different from those assessed by observational methods (ergonomist) and direct measurement. However, the operators’ opinions and judgments of ergonomic factors of a job are of particular importance to the success of an ergonomic approach. A structured interview based on objective data (video-observation or direct measurement) linked the activities and strategies of atrisk operators might be an appropriate procedure to advance ergonomics.The knowledge gained from this study emphasizes that the variable nature of tasks in manufacturing industries needs an ergonomic approach which shares knowledge and representation of risks between stakeholders. In such an approach, attitudes and behaviors of operators are taken into consideration in developing new intervention processes, organizational and technical remedies. Moreover, involvement of stakeholders should be integrated and this should result in improving production ergonomics
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Weinstein, Philip. „Changing representations of mosquito borne disease risk in Reunion“. University of Western Australia. European Languages and Studies Discipline Group. French Studies, 2008. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2008.0174.
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[Truncated abstract] In March 2005, the Indian Ocean island of Reunion, a former colony and now overseas department of France, saw the first cases of what was to become a massive epidemic of the mosquito borne viral infection Chikungunya. More than 250,000 people, one third of the Island's population, were subject to high fevers, rash, and joint and muscle pains over the next 18 months, yet the public health authorities in metropolitan France were arguably slow to take the epidemic seriously. The research presented here explores attitudes underlying the management of the epidemic by examining both metropolitan and local representations of mosquito borne disease from historical, epidemiological and media perspectives. The research seeks to answer the general question Does colonial history continue to influence the representation and management of mosquito borne disease in Reunion? Three parallel approaches are taken to answering this question, using a common framework of tropicality (a Western discourse that exalts the temperate world over its tropical counterpart, and overlaps with colonialism and orientalism). ... Several factors are likely to have contributed to the persistence of tropicality in public health practice in Reunion: Othering as a universal phenomenon; the cost of administering interventions to combat tropical diseases in the remote environments of French overseas departments and territories; the denial of a serious public health risk as a cultural trait in Reunion; and the significant role of the colonies in forming and maintaining the French national identity. It has to be acknowledged that historically, tropicalism does appear to have played one positive role in the management of mosquito borne disease:
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Pesce, Maria da Conceição Rocha. „Representações sociais de professores sobre alunos considerados em situação de risco“. Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo, 2013. https://tede2.pucsp.br/handle/handle/16108.
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Previous issue date: 2013-10-28Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
The present work started from questionings concerning the lack of material investment and psychosocial attention for the development of children and young people that live in the most peripheral regions of São Paulo City and are designated by the society as risk population. As a result from this lack, we are faced with children and young people who have attended school and are living or working on the streets of the metropolis, in search for better living conditions. Understanding the school as a center of transformation, it was verified that the question of risk or social problems experienced by students has been poorly received in school literature, because mostly, the school heads for the learning problems issue. Considering that the teacher student relationship and communication are fundamental for the education process, this research investigated what view do teachers of the final years of an elementary school have about the future of their students considered in risk situation. The final years of elementary school were chosen for their specific departure of childhood and entrance in youth. The Master s thesis was developed within the psychosocial perspective, guided by the Theory of Social Representation, assuming that social representations are culturally and historically constructed, and that they influence the way we see and deal with everyday. The methodology included interviews with teachers, which were recorded, transcribed and processed by the program ALCESTE. The results indicated the inappropriate behavior of the students, a dysfunctional family and social context of poverty as elements of the social representation risk situation. The teacher aims at risk situation from the naturalized vision of family. As reality shows other models, he feels limited. Through this research, it is expected that the identified elements enable a shift from the deterministic view of school as a place of reproduction of inequalities, for the school as a place for social transformation
O presente trabalho partiu de questionamentos acerca da falta de investimento material e de atenção psicossocial para o desenvolvimento de crianças e jovens que vivem nas regiões mais periféricas da cidade de São Paulo e que são designados pela sociedade como população de risco. Como resultado dessa falta, nos deparamos com crianças e jovens que já frequentaram a escola e estão vivendo ou trabalhando nas ruas da metrópole, em busca de melhores condições de vida. Compreendendo a escola como polo de transformação, verificou-se que a questão do risco ou problemas sociais vivenciados pelos alunos tem sido pouco acolhida na literatura escolar, pois, majoritariamente, a escola se volta para a discussão de problemas de aprendizagem. Considerando que a relação e a comunicação professor-aluno são fundamentais para o processo de educação, a presente pesquisa investigou qual a visão que professores dos anos finais de uma escola do Ensino Fundamental têm a respeito do futuro de seus alunos considerados em situação de risco. Os anos finais do Ensino Fundamental foram escolhidos por suas especificidades de saída da infância e de entrada na juventude. A dissertação de Mestrado foi desenvolvida dentro da perspectiva psicossocial, à luz da Teoria das Representações Sociais, partindo do pressuposto de que as representações sociais são culturalmente e historicamente construídas, e influenciam a forma de ver e lidar com o cotidiano. A metodologia contou com entrevistas com professores, que foram gravadas, transcritas e processadas pelo programa ALCESTE. Os resultados indicaram o comportamento inadequado do aluno, a família desestruturada e o contexto social de pobreza como elementos da representação social situação de risco. O professor objetiva a situação de risco na visão naturalizada de família, como a realidade apresenta outros modelos, ele se sente limitado. Com esta pesquisa, espera-se que os elementos identificados possibilitem uma mudança da visão determinista de escola como espaço de reprodução de desigualdades, para a escola como espaço de transformação social
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Kabui, Ali. „Value at risk et expected shortfall pour des données faiblement dépendantes : estimations non-paramétriques et théorèmes de convergences“. Phd thesis, Université du Maine, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00743159.
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Quantifier et mesurer le risque dans un environnement partiellement ou totalement incertain est probablement l'un des enjeux majeurs de la recherche appliquée en mathématiques financières. Cela concerne l'économie, la finance, mais d'autres domaines comme la santé via les assurances par exemple. L'une des difficultés fondamentales de ce processus de gestion des risques est de modéliser les actifs sous-jacents, puis d'approcher le risque à partir des observations ou des simulations. Comme dans ce domaine, l'aléa ou l'incertitude joue un rôle fondamental dans l'évolution des actifs, le recours aux processus stochastiques et aux méthodes statistiques devient crucial. Dans la pratique l'approche paramétrique est largement utilisée. Elle consiste à choisir le modèle dans une famille paramétrique, de quantifier le risque en fonction des paramètres, et d'estimer le risque en remplaçant les paramètres par leurs estimations. Cette approche présente un risque majeur, celui de mal spécifier le modèle, et donc de sous-estimer ou sur-estimer le risque. Partant de ce constat et dans une perspective de minimiser le risque de modèle, nous avons choisi d'aborder la question de la quantification du risque avec une approche non-paramétrique qui s'applique à des modèles aussi généraux que possible. Nous nous sommes concentrés sur deux mesures de risque largement utilisées dans la pratique et qui sont parfois imposées par les réglementations nationales ou internationales. Il s'agit de la Value at Risk (VaR) qui quantifie le niveau de perte maximum avec un niveau de confiance élevé (95% ou 99%). La seconde mesure est l'Expected Shortfall (ES) qui nous renseigne sur la perte moyenne au delà de la VaR.
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Schlag, Anne Katrin. „Expert and lay representations of GM food : implications for risk communication“. Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2007. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/1946/.
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This thesis is conducted in two parts. The first part investigates expert and lay representations of GM food risk using the Carnegie Mellon University approach (Granger Morgan at al, 2002) and social representations theory (Moscovici,1984). Elite interviews were followed by focus group discussions with lay people to explore how GM food risks are understood by both parties. Expert and lay perceptions differ on a wide range of issues. In contrast to experts, lay participants are particularly concerned with various non-scientific risk dimensions, such as trust and values. These moral and ethical concerns cannot be addressed through the provision of scientific information alone as the Carnegie Mellon University approach suggests. Social representations theory offers an alternative to this top-down approach by showing that, rather than erroneous knowledge, lay participants' non-scientific concerns express ways of understanding GM food. The second part of the thesis focuses on one particular non-scientific dimension of lay GM food representations, namely the concept 'messing with nature', and examines the social construction of nature and naturalness in relation to food. 188 respondents completed an internet-administered free associations task to establish in depth what lay people mean when they judge GM food to be 'unnatural'. The findings show that the concept of 'messing with nature ' can be firmly established as a major risk dimension in relation to GM food. Moreover, rather than being solely material, both food and nature have significant symbolic and affective dimensions. This indicates that GM food risks are social in part- they are representations that have socio-cultural and value dimensions and with all this they are disputed. In turn, this has a range of implications for risk communication.
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Borger, David. „Constructing representations of risk in regulatory networks : accounting for financial instruments“. Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2002. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/2265/.
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The extant literature on accounting regulation in the context of private-sector standard setting has mainly focused on lobbying by means of comment letters. Some rather casual while interesting accounts of the process of standard setting 'behind the scenes' by former insiders and by close observers have complemented this research. Only few detailed studies have looked at how accounting standards emerge over time and in the wider social context. After theory had become deconstructed as providing excuses in the late 1970s, few contributions have looked at the role accounting theory plays in accounting regulation. To analyze the process of accounting regulation in more detail with a focus on the conceptual foundation and the social context of accounting, this thesis looks at one particular international standard setting project that took place over a period of ten years. The thesis focuses on the International Accounting Standards Committee's (IASC) project on financial instruments that was inaugurated in 1988 and resulted in a comprehensive recognition and measurement standard by the end of 1998. Because of the nature of financial instruments, which came to challenge traditional accounting concepts and did not fit easily into existing accounting categories, the project ventured into hitherto unknown regulatory territory. In the process, some of the premises of financial reporting became transformed, in particular with respect to the representation of financial risk. Due to the esoteric nature of the object of regulation - financial instruments - and the intellectual challenges involved, the regulatory debate came to sustain a high level of conceptual independence. Within the debate, new notions of appropriateness of problems and solutions emerged in reliance on a close international network of experts, organizations and ideas. However, legitimately shifting the boundary of what accounting can and should represent became a considerably demanding endeavor, as it was resisted in reference to traditional meaning of accounting. While slowly emerging notions of what accounting can and should represent helped to justify the new accounting guidance, conflicting notions of appropriateness remained resilient. The thesis contributes to refining a model of regulation and accounting standard setting as a regulatory debate that is structured by a meaning-reproducing network of experts, organizations and ideas. Some of the policy and theoretical implications of the study relate to the regulatory role of conceptual frameworks in supporting notions of appropriateness. It also sheds light on notions of regulatory independence, which became prominent in recent proposals for reforming the international standard setting regime. In particular, the structure of the debate was seen to put considerable constraints on pace and direction of regulatory change. Furthermore, the case suggests that the success of regulatory initiatives may depend more on the success of shifting notions of appropriateness of problems and solutions and the meaning given to accounting than on the power and persistence of lobbyists.
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Précigout, Frédéric. „Les formes de peurs émergeant dans l'alimentation des sociétés occidentales contemporaines : analyse, déconstruction et reconstruction de discours et pratiques des acteurs de la filière du manger“. Thesis, Tours, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011TOUR2005/document.
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Dans cette étude nous nous interrogeons sur les raisons qui, au moment où il semble exister une meilleure sécurité sanitaire des aliments, font que les peurs alimentaires occupent une place aussi importante dans les discours qu’ils émanent des mangeurs ordinaires, des professionnels de la filière agroalimentaire ou des experts. Nous analysons ici les discours relatifs aux peurs alimentaires afin d’en déterminer les fondements et justifications. Nous postulons que ces peurs doivent être considérées comme des métaphores sociales. L’alimentation est un lieu d’expression et de cristallisation des crises identitaires des différents acteurs. Dans une perspective compréhensive, nous reconstituons des récits de vie du point de vue des peurs alimentaires, puis nous les confrontons les uns aux autres, et enfin nous les articulons avec le contexte social et historique au sein duquel ils ont émergés. En déconstruisant les discours nous reconstruirons la logique de ces peursWhile today the sanitary security of food is largely secured, we examine the reasons why food fears occupy such an important place in discourses by ordinary eaters, food industry professionals as well as experts. We attempt here to analyze such fear-related discourses so as to determine grounds and justifications. We defend the hypothesis that such fears should be considered as social metaphors - food revealing the expression and crystallisation of the diverse protagonists’ identity crisis.In a comprehensive perspective, we reconstruct life stories focusing on food fears then we confront them; finally we articulate them with the social and historical context they are stemming from. By deconstructing discourses, we reconstruct the intrinsic logic of such fears
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Lemoine, Jérémy. „Jeu de hasard : prise de risque, représentation sociale et addiction“. Thesis, Reims, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014REIML005.
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Les prises de décision ainsi que l'addiction sont influencées par une combinaison de trois types de facteurs: la situation, l'objet et les différences individuelles (Appelt, Milch, Handgraaf, & Weber, 2011; Bonnaire, 2009; Einhorn, 1970; Griffiths, 2003). Chacun de ces facteurs correspond à un chapitre de cette thèse. Dans le Chapitre 1, l'influence de la situation est examinée à travers l'influence du Contexte Social. L'influence du Contexte Social est étudiée à travers la Simple Présence d'une Audience ainsi qu'avec la présence d'un Climat de Compétition. Dans le Chapitre 2, l'influence de l'objet est examinée à travers l'effet de la connaissance de l'objet : les comportements de prise de risque sont étudiés quand les participants sont confrontés à un jeu qu'ils connaissent et quand ils sont confrontés à un jeu qu'ils ne connaissent pas. Dans le Chapitre 3, l'influence de différences individuelles est examinée à travers l'effet de l'estime de soi sur la prise de risque. Deux mesures d'estime de soi sont utilisées : la première est une mesure générale d'Estime de Soi alors que la seconde est une mesure composée de deux dimensions : la dimension Valeur et la dimension Compétence. La théorie des Représentations sociales sous-tend qu'il y a une relation entre les Représentations Sociales et les comportements. Le Chapitre 4 examine la Représentation Sociale du risque dans un contexte de jeu à l'aide de deux études. La première étude est réalisée via la procédure de l'association libre et la seconde étude est composée d'entretiens auprès de joueurs sains et de joueurs pathologiquesDecision-making, as well as addiction, are influence by a combination of three sets of factors: the situation, the object and individual differences (Appelt, Milch, Handgraaf, & Weber, 2011; Bonnaire, 2009; Einhorn, 1970; Griffiths, 2003). Each of these factors corresponds to a chapter of this thesis. In Chapter 1, the influence of the situation is investigated through the effect of Social Context. The influence of the Social Context is studied through, the Mere Presence of an Audience and through the presence of a Competitive Climate. In Chapter 2, the influence of the object is investigated through the effect of the knowledge of the object: risk-taking behavior is studied when participants are confronted to a known game and when they are confronted to an unknown game. In Chapter 3, the influence of individual differences is investigated through the effect of Self-Esteem on risk-taking behaviors. Two measures of Self-Esteem are used: the first one is a general measure of Self-Esteem while the second one is composed of two dimensions distinguishing Self-Liking and Self-Competence. The Social Representation Theory describes a relation between Social Representation and behavior. In this line, Chapter 4 investigates the Social Representation of risk in a gambling context with two studies. The first study is done via free association tasks and the second study is based on interviews with both gamblers who have gambling disorders and gamblers who do not have gambling disorder
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TenEyck, Michael F. „Cumulative Disadvantage Across the Life Course: Results from a Nationally Representative Sample“. University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin149580728755573.
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DeFeo, Graig C. „Risk Factors for Recurrent Major Depressive Disorder in a Nationally Representative Sample“. Thesis, University of South Florida, 2014. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=1569946.
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The public use version of the National Comorbidity Survey – Replication (NCS-R) dataset was used (N = 995) to investigate risk factors for recurrent major depressive disorder (MDD) that are evident before recovery from the first major depressive episode (MDE) by comparing persons diagnosed with MDD who experienced a single MDE to persons with recurrent MDD.
Multiple logistic regression analyses assessed the independent risk of recurrent MDD for each of the following risk factors: an early age of onset (<30 years old), absence of a life stress trigger, chronic first episode, childhood parental loss, parental maltreatment, parental depression, comorbid anxiety disorder, and comorbid substance disorder. The relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) assessed the risk of recurrent MDD associated with the interaction of an early onset with three childhood-based vulnerabilities: a) parental depression, b) parental loss, and c) parental maltreatment.
There was a statistically significant risk of recurrent MDD found for the following risk factors: early onset, stress trigger absent, childhood parental loss, parental maltreatment, parental depression, and anxiety disorder; marginally significant results suggested an increased risk of recurrent MDD for substance disorder. There was a significant increased risk found for the interaction of an early onset with parental depression and similar non-significant trends were found for the interactions of early onset with parental loss and early onset with parental maltreatment.
An early onset, the absence of a life stress trigger, and the presence of parental loss, parental maltreatment, parental depression, a comorbid anxiety disorder, and a comorbid substance disorder each confer greater risk of recurrent MDD among persons that have not yet recovered from their first lifetime MDE. The presence of an early onset combined with a childhood-based vulnerability such as parental depression, parental loss, or parental maltreatment, indicate an especially high risk of recurrent MDD. These findings may inform the development of a screening tool to assess risk for recurrent MDD and early intervention to prevent recurrent MDD. Future research should employ a longitudinal research design to replicate and expand upon these findings.
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DeFeo, Graig Charles. „Risk Factors for Recurrent Major Depressive Disorder in a Nationally Representative Sample“. Scholar Commons, 2014. https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/5351.
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The public use version of the National Comorbidity Survey - Replication (NCS-R) dataset was used (N = 995) to investigate risk factors for recurrent major depressive disorder (MDD) that are evident before recovery from the first major depressive episode (MDE) by comparing persons diagnosed with MDD who experienced a single MDE to persons with recurrent MDD.
Multiple logistic regression analyses assessed the independent risk of recurrent MDD for each of the following risk factors: an early age of onset (old), absence of a life stress trigger, chronic first episode, childhood parental loss, parental maltreatment, parental depression, comorbid anxiety disorder, and comorbid substance disorder. The relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) assessed the risk of recurrent MDD associated with the interaction of an early onset with three childhood-based vulnerabilities: a) parental depression, b) parental loss, and c) parental maltreatment.
There was a statistically significant risk of recurrent MDD found for the following risk factors: early onset, stress trigger absent, childhood parental loss, parental maltreatment, parental depression, and anxiety disorder; marginally significant results suggested an increased risk of recurrent MDD for substance disorder. There was a significant increased risk found for the interaction of an early onset with parental depression and similar non-significant trends were found for the interactions of early onset with parental loss and early onset with parental maltreatment.
An early onset, the absence of a life stress trigger, and the presence of parental loss, parental maltreatment, parental depression, a comorbid anxiety disorder, and a comorbid substance disorder each confer greater risk of recurrent MDD among persons that have not yet recovered from their first lifetime MDE. The presence of an early onset combined with a childhood-based vulnerability such as parental depression, parental loss, or parental maltreatment, indicate an especially high risk of recurrent MDD. These findings may inform the development of a screening tool to assess risk for recurrent MDD and early intervention to prevent recurrent MDD. Future research should employ a longitudinal research design to replicate and expand upon these findings.
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Sundvall, Denise, und Sara Harila. „Rise of The Robots : En innehållsanalys om representation av virtuella influencers“. Thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för konst, kommunikation och lärande, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-73567.
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I denna studie undersöks representationen av virtuella influencers och interaktionen mellan publiken. Syftet med undersökningen är att få en djupare förståelse för detta nya fenomen som idag växer på sociala medier, och framför allt Instagram. De teoretiska utgångspunkterna som ligger som grund för undersökningen är hyperrealitet, identitet och personas, semiotik och representation. Metoderna som används för att analysera materialet är en kvalitativ innehållsanalys samt en semiotisk analys. I genomförandet av den kvalitativa innehållsanalysen (publikens kommentarer) identifierades följande teman; hyllningar/kritik, politik och realitet. I den semiotiska analysen identifierades tre andra teman, dessa var livsstil, politik och relationer (bilder och bildtexter från de virtuella influencers). Resultatet av undersökningen visade att beroende på influencer, bilder och bildtexter var variationen stor mellan hur publiken tog emot materialet. Det gick också att se en stor skillnad i den semiotiska analysen mellan de olika virtuella influencers som undersöktes.
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Baccelli, Jean. „Essais d'analyse de la théorie axiomatique de la décision“. Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016PSLEE002.
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Cette thèse rassemble trois essais sur la théorie axiomatique de la décision.Ils relèvent principalement de l’analyse épistémologique de cette théorie.Le premier essai, “Les limites de l’ordinalisme”, concerne la doctrine ordinaliste,qui a joué un rôle important dans la constitution de la théoriemicro-économique contemporaine. Dans un premier temps, nous définissonsabstraitement cette doctrine. Nous la caractérisons par la thèse suivant laquelledes données de choix ne peuvent pas rendre empiriquement signifiantesles propriétés non-ordinales de l’utilité. Dans un second temps, nous évaluonscette thèse, la confrontant à divers développements de la théorie de la décision,qui paraissent la remettre en cause. Nous montrons que, malgré lesapparences, cette thèse n’est pas remise en cause par les développementsthéoriques que nous étudions.Le deuxième essai, “L’analyse axiomatique et l’attitude par rapport aurisque”, porte sur le statut, en théorie de la décision, des concepts d’attitudepar rapport au risque. A première vue, l’analyse axiomatique n’exploite pasces idées-là. Ceci reflète une certaine neutralité des modèles de décision ausujet de l’attitude par rapport au risque. Mais un examen plus poussé permetde mettre en valeur ce que nous nommons la variation conditionnelle et lerenforcement de l’attitude par rapport au risque, établissant par là mêmel’importance axiomatique des concepts d’attitude par rapport au risque.Le troisième essai, “Les paris révèlent-ils les croyances ?”, examine la méthodeconsistant à identifier les croyances d’un agent à partir de ses préférences.Nous nous concentrons sur l’obstacle principal auquel cette méthodeest exposée, à savoir, le problème de l’utilité dépendante des états. En premierlieu, nous illustrons ce problème de manière détaillée, distinguant quatreformes de dépendance de l’utilité aux états. En second lieu, nous présentonset discutons une stratégie permettant, malgré la possibilité d’une telle dépendance,d’identifier les croyances. Cependant, pour résoudre ainsi le problème,il faut laisser la préférence s’étendre au-delà du choix. Nous défendons quetel doit être le cas dans toute solution complète au problème de l’utilitédépendante des états. Nous affirmons aussi que c’est là la principale leçonconceptuelle à tirer de ce problème, et montrons qu’elle intéresse tant leséconomistes que les philosophesThis thesis consists of three essays on axiomatic decision theory. Theybelong primarily to the epistemological analysis of decision theory.The first essay, “The limits of ordinalism”, focuses on ordinalism, a doctrinethat was instrumental in the constitution of contemporary microeconomictheory. First, I provide an abstract definition of this doctrine.I characterize it by the following claim: if the underlying data are choicedata, then no non-ordinal property of utility can be empirically meaningful.Second, I evaluate the above claim. I confront this claim with variousdecision-theoretic developments which seem to question its validity. I showthat, despite appearances, this claim is not challenged by the theoreticaldevelopments in question.The second essay, “Axiomatic analysis and risk attitudes”, examines thestatus of risk attitude concepts in decision theory. At first sight, axiomaticanalysis does not rely on these concepts. This indicates a certain neutrality ofdecision models regarding risk attitudes. Further analysis, however, leads oneto recognize the importance of what I call the conditional variation and thestrengthening of risk attitudes. This establishes the axiomatic significance ofrisk attitude concepts.The third essay, “Do bets reveal beliefs?”, examines the preference-basedapproach to the identification of beliefs. It focuses on the main problem towhich this approach is exposed, namely state-dependent utility. First, theproblem is illustrated in full detail. Four types of state-dependent utility issuesare distinguished. Second, a strategy for identifying beliefs under statedependentutility is presented and discussed. For the problem to be solvedfollowing this strategy, however, preferences need to extend beyond choices. Iargue that this is a necessary feature of any complete solution to the problemof state-dependent utility. I also claim that this is the main conceptuallesson to draw from this problem. I explain why this lesson is of interest toeconomists and philosophers alike
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Maggis, M. „ON QUASICONVEX CONDITIONAL MAPS. DUALITY RESULTS AND APPLICATIONS TO FINANCE“. Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Milano, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2434/150201.
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Motivated by many financial insights, we provide dual representation theorems for quasiconvex conditional maps defined on vector space or modules and taking values in sets of random variables. These results match the standard dual representation for quasiconvex real valued maps provided by Penot and Volle. As a financial byproduct, we apply this theory to the case of dynamic certainty equivalents and conditional risk measures.
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Tissell, Rachel L. „Child maltreatment risk| Associations with mothers' representations of childhood attachment, trauma, caregiving, and regulation“. Thesis, Mills College, 2016. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10163157.
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Child maltreatment models view risk as a complex constellation of factors that emphasize parents’ trauma experiences and regulation processes. Attachment research has shown that mothers’ representations of childhood attachment and caregiving places their children at developmental risk. Studies to date have evaluated contributing factors separately, but little research considers mothers’ past and current experiences combined with relational trauma and familial regulation patterns. The current research adopted an integrated perspective using known maternal risk factors, and extended existing research in several unique ways by examining association with both adult trauma and childhood trauma; caregiving representations; pathological mourning; and capacity for emotion regulation. Seventy-five mothers with children between 19-74 months (40% boys) from diverse socio-economic and cultural backgrounds completed assessments of maltreatment risk, adult attachment, caregiving, relational trauma, parenting stress, and emotion regulation. Maternal representations of attachment were significantly related to risk, with unresolved mothers demonstrating the highest risk. There were significant positive associations between risk and relational trauma – both frequency and subjective distress with parents and partners. Helpless and heightened caregiving representations, parenting stress, and emotion regulation were also all significantly related to risk. This is the first study to consider maltreatment in the context of relational trauma as defined by Bowlby’s (1980) model of pathological mourning. Risk scores were significantly greater for mothers classified in pathological mourning groups than other mothers. These findings punctuate the effects of problems associated with mourning attachment trauma on maternal regulatory capacities and parenting risk. Implications for infant mental health research and intervention are discussed.
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Grembo, Nicolas. „Risque industriel et représentation des risques : approche géographique de la représentation du risque industriel majeur en région Poitou-Charentes“. Phd thesis, Université de La Rochelle, 2010. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00573845.
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La prévention des risques industriels s'est renforcée depuis plusieurs années notamment suite à l'accident de l'usine AZF de Toulouse en 2001. Des prescriptions techniques ont été apportées pour cela ainsi qu'une augmentation des contrôles des Inspections des Installations Classées. Le volet de la communication et de l'information a également connu des modifications en particulier avec la loi du 30 juillet 2003 avec la création des PPRT et des CLIC. Ce dernier point (communication et information) va constituer un des éléments de notre travail de thèse car nous portons notre attention sur la représentation des risques industriels majeurs et son action sur la vulnérabilité. Il est question à travers ce travail de comprendre comment se construit et évolue la représentation des risques industriels, quels éléments géographiques la composent, comment les évaluer ?Pour répondre à toutes ces questions, nous avons fait une première observation globale sur l'ensemble des établissements industriels soumis à la directive Seveso II de la région Poitou-Charentes, soit 55 sites. Nous avons rétréci notre échantillon à une dizaine d'établissements pour une seconde observation plus détaillée et plus spécifique suivant l'activité de ceux-ci, l'organisation spatiale de leur lieu d'implantations, les dynamiques et les interactions entre les acteurs du risque industriel et de la relation risques / territoire. Des comparaisons ont été faites suivant ces critères pour en faire ressortir les éléments et les facteurs qui jouent un rôle dans la construction de la représentation du risque industriel. Nous nous sommes donc appuyés sur la relation source du risque / enjeux pour en dégager la représentation des risques puis la vulnérabilité.
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Penn, Gemma Louise. „Medicalization and representations of smoking in public discourse and images“. Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 1998. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/1503/.
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An approach to smoking through an analysis of its representations, grounded in the medicalization literature, highlights the inadequacies of a narrow medical perspective and some of its negative implications. This does not require that we abandon the medical discourse, but stresses the importance of setting it in a wider representational context. Drawing on the work of Saussure, Barthes, Eco and Foucault, the author constructs a theory of interaction amongst representations suited to both discourse and images. To investigate the medicalization of smoking, four empirical studies are reported which include quantitative and qualitative approaches to press reporting at both macro-and micro-levels, cigarette advertising and packaging. There have been medical representations of smoking since the introduction of tobacco into Britain. However, a thematic analysis of tobacco-related reporting in the Times newspaper (1946-1995) found that these representations have expanded and diversified, becoming increasingly linked to other representations (e.g. financial) and generating new themes (e.g. discrimination, litigation). Medical representations, however, are contested and subject to subversion by alternative representations, including libertarian and alternative medical constructions of smoking. These processes are investigated in a detailed structural and rhetorical analysis of a contemporary newspaper article, together with related correspondence and cartoons. Quantitative and qualitative analyses of 754 UK cigarette advertisements from four national newspapers (1946-1995) identified an increase in medical and packaging-related representations of smoking and a decrease in financial representations, representations of the act of smoking and of cigarettes as social currency. The final, questionnaire, study (with 60 participants) found, among other things, a clear and consensually-held system of health-related signification in contemporary UK cigarette packaging in ratings of packets. The thesis concludes with a discussion of the implications of medicalization for smoking-related policy and for the smoker, and of smoking for the medicalization literature.
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Yang, Huiqin. „The effects of improved representative design on Nurse's risk assessment judgements and confidence calibration“. Thesis, University of York, 2009. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.516581.
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