Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Retain staff“

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore whether authentic leadership in hospitality is composed of four distinctive but related substantive components (i.e. self-awareness, relational transparency, balanced processing, and internalized moral), the impact of authentic leadership on employees’ organizational commitment (OC), the impact of employees’ OC on their turnover intention (TI), and the indirect effect of authentic leadership on employees’ TI via OC. Design/methodology/approach The authors tested a sample of 236 students working as employees in hospitality in the USA, with the idea that authentic leadership increases OC which in turn decreases TI. The participants were asked to rate the manager’s leadership style and the frequency of their leadership behavior. Findings Results provide support for the positive effect of authentic leadership on OC in the hospitality industry, and suggest that OC mediates reduced TI. Originality/value The results of the study suggest a variety of significant theoretical contributions and critical leadership and organizational implications. The effects of authentic leadership were empirically tested on employees’ OC and the effects of that OC on TI.

The high rate of employee turnover in the staffing industry is costly and impedes sustainability of employment agencies. The focus of this qualitative single case study explored strategies that 10 human resource managers (HRMs) and 5 HR directors used to retain recruiting staff at one regional recruiting agency in the southeastern region of the United States. The target population and research site were selected because of prior success in employee retention strategies. The conceptual framework grounding this study was sustainability theory. Methodological triangulation was achieved with semistructured interviews and focus group data. Data were thematically analyzed using Atlas.ti7, and all interpretations from the data were member checked to ensure the trustworthiness of findings. Emergent themes from the analysis revealed that these HRMs and HR directors increased employee job training, improved transparency in strategic planning and business practices, and enhanced communication of their employees' roles and responsibilites. The application of the findings may contribute to social change by providing HRMs and directors with insights that could improve employee retention and organizational sustainability. Stakeholders may benefit from an increased understanding of employee retention strategies and potentially reduce employee turnover for the local community.

Teacher attrition has serious consequences in hard to staff schools. Mostly poor and ethnic minority students are deprived of being taught by stable, experienced teachers. The purpose of this study was to explore the strategies used to effectively retain teachers in such schools through the perspective of teachers at a high school that comprises poor and ethnic minority students in southwest Georgia. The conceptual framework that guided this study was Chen's theory about race and social class which postulated that a high percentage of poor ethnic minority students results in low teacher morale. This study explored the reasons why teachers stay at a school where there is a high proportion of poor and ethnic minority students. In this research, the case study strategy of inquiry was employed and data were collected from interviews with 10 teachers (using a 16-question interview guide) to solicit their perspectives on the working conditions at their school. The data were then examined for patterns and themes in the text. The findings produced 4 consolidated themes that revealed (a) aspects of a successful environment created by the principal; (b) an effective mentoring program that was aimed at assisting, developing, and supporting new and inexperienced teachers; (c) good parental involvement where parents were enthusiastic about supporting the school and their child's educational progress; and (d) stable and charismatic leadership that promoted retention. If implemented at hard to staff schools, these best practices can lead to improved teacher morale, better prepared teachers, and higher student achievement.

Syftet är att undersöka vilka faktorer som upplevs viktiga för att behålla och i viss mån attrahera personal i en organisation utifrån anställdas perspektiv. Syftet är också att få en djupare förståelse för de olika faktorerna och dess innebörd för olika individer. Med hjälp av tidigare forskning om begreppen Employer Branding och kompetensförsörjning lades grundenför insamlingen av studiens empiriska material. Det empiriska materialet har analyserats medhjälp av ovanstående begrepp men även med inspiration av Maslows motivationsteori. Studiens empiriska material är insamlat via tio semistrukturerade intervjuer med respondenter från två olika organisationer. Båda företagen är stora företag i södra Sverige verksamma inom olika bransch och sektor. Huvudresultaten i studien visar att anställda vill erbjudas utvecklingsmöjligheter, en bra ledning och en välfungerande och tydlig kommunikation för att vilja arbeta kvar i en organisation samt för att attraheras till en eventuellt framtida arbetsgivare. Resultatet av studien visar att en bra ledning i denna studie främst syftar till en ledning som är lyhörd, erbjuder frihet under ansvar och har förtroende för de anställda. Studien visar även att värdet av ett företags rykte och anseende inte framkommer som särskilt viktigt, vilket är en stor skillnad gentemot tidigare forskning.
The purpose of this study is to analyze which factors are perceived as important in order to retain and to some extent attract staff in an organization from the perspective of employees. The purpose is also to reach a deeper understanding of the various factors and their meaning for different individuals. The foundation for the collection of the empirical data of the study is based on a previous research of the concepts of Employer Branding and competence supply. The empirical material has been analyzed using the above concepts but also with inspiration from Maslow's motivation theory. The empirical material of the study was collected through ten semi-structured interviews with respondents from two different organizations. Both organizations are large companies, activein various sectors and situated in the south of Sweden. The main results of the study show that employees want to be offered development opportunities, good management and well functioning communication in order to remain in an organization and to be attracted to a possible future employer. The results of the study show that a good management in this study primarily aims at a management that is attentive, offers freedom under responsibility and has confidence in the employees. The study also shows that the value of a company's reputation does not appear to be particularly important, which is a big difference compared to previous research.

Syftet med studien var att bidra till en djupare förståelse över hur organisationer arbetar med att kompetenssäkra verksamheten och hantera kunskapsförlust till följd av personalomsättning. Den här undersökningen utgörs av en fallstudie av Uppsala kommun och Svea Hovrätt och har en kvalitativ ansats. Det empiriska materialet har samlats in genom semistrukturerade intervjuer med sju respondenter. Studiens teoretiska ramverk vilar på Nonaka och Konnos uppdelning av kunskapsbegreppet i implicit respektive explicit kunskap. Hansen, Nohria och Tierneys begrepp kodifiering och personalisering om överföring och bevarande av kunskap samt Hansson respektive Lindelöws olika modeller över kompetensutveckling och behållande av personal. Studiens resultat visar att det effektivaste sättet att behålla kunskap och kompetens inom organisationen är genom att behålla personalen. Arbetet med att behålla personal inkluderar lönesättning, att organisationen erbjuder utvecklingsmöjligheter och andra hygienfaktorer som anställningstrygghet. Resultatet visar att kompetensutveckling fyller flera syften, både som ett sätt att se till att rätt kompetens finns inom organisationen, men också som ett sätt för att personalen ska trivas och vilja arbeta kvar. Arbetet med kompetensutveckling innehåller delar som introduktionskurser, medarbetarsamtal, seminarier och utbildningar samt uppföljning. Ytterligare ett sätt att kompetenssäkra verksamheten är att bevara den kunskap som finns inom organisation genom kodifiering och personalisering. Det framkommer i studien att det svåra är att dela och behålla implicit kunskap som bygger på erfarenhet när en medarbetare lämnar organisationen.
The purpose of the study was to contribute to a deeper understanding of how organizations work to secure the competence and handle knowledge loss as a result of staff turnover. This study consists of a case study of Uppsala kommun and Svea Hovrätt and has a qualitative approach. The empirical material has been collected through semi-structured interviews with seven respondents. The study's theoretical framework rests upon Nonaka and Konno's breakdown of the concept of knowledge in implicit and explicit knowledge. Hansen, Nohria and Tierneys concepts of codification and personalization on transfer and preservation of knowledge, as well as Hansson and Lindelöw's both models of competence development and retention of staff. The study's results show that the most effective way of retaining knowledge and competence within the organization is by retaining the staff. The work of retaining staff includes wage setting, that the organization offers development opportunities and other hygiene factors such as job security. The result shows that competence development fulfills several purposes, both as a way of ensuring that the right skills are within the organization, but also as a way for the staff to feel comfortable and want to work. The work on competence development includes parts such as introductory courses, staff appraisals, seminars and training courses and follow-up. Another way to secure the competence is to preserve the knowledge that exists within the organization through codification and personalization. It appears from the study that the difficult thing is to share and maintain implicit knowledge based on experience when an employee leaves the organization.

Dissertation submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Master of Technology: Office Management and Technology in the Faculty of Business at the Cape Peninsula University of Technology 2013
Employees are important to any business and without them businesses could be unsuccessful. This is particularly the case with micro retail businesses where employees are in direct contact with customers and more often than not, generate most of the revenue. Staff turnover on the other hand, may play a significant role and have an impact on business performance especially, in micro retail businesses. The success of micro retail businesses may be in understanding the possible causes of staff turnover and explored in this research. The aim of this research is to ascertain what causes staff turnover within micro retail businesses in Cape Town, South Africa, and how this can be reduced or prevented. To satisfy this goal, the research problem formulated as: It is unknown what interventions are needed for micro retail businesses to retain their staff The researcher conducted extensive literature analysis to understand the theoretical background and the possible factors that cause high staff turnover in micro retail businesses. Thereafter, the researcher uncovers the drivers causing staff turnover in micro retail businesses using a survey study. The research population is micro retail businesses in Cape Town, South Africa. Due to the nature of this research, a purposive sampling method is found to be the most appropriate. Questionnaires are used to collect primary data, whereas literature analysis assists with obtaining secondary data. The researcher found that remuneration, physical and employment working conditions and working hours are the top three most likely causes of staff turnover in micro retail businesses in Cape Town, South Africa. The researcher recommended that businesses should offer relevant and competitive remuneration packages, provide safe and secure working environments and arrange fair shift patterns. These would assist micro retail businesses to prevent or at least reduce high staff turnover.

El presente trabajo de investigación, ha permitido identificar los factores que originan la alta rotación del personal de ventas de las tiendas de la empresa Piero, y proponer un portafolio de medidas que tendría que adoptar dicha empresa para reducir la alta rotación de su personal de ventas. La empresa Piero, produce y comercializa prendas de vestir a través de su propia cadena de tiendas ubicadas en la ciudad de Lima y otras provincias del interior del país, siendo una de las empresas más representativas del sector retail. Por ello, considero que la metodología y los resultados de la presente investigación pueden servir de referencia para que otras empresas del rubro traten de establecer los factores de rotación de su personal o adopten las medidas que se proponen para reducir dicha rotación. La presente investigación se basa en un tipo de estudio descriptivo, toda vez que trata de analizar los factores que motivan las renuncias voluntarias del personal de ventas de la empresa PIERO. También, corresponde al tipo de investigación aplicada, en la medida que los resultados del presente trabajo servirán para proponer un conjunto de políticas orientadas a reducir la alta tasa de rotación.
Trabajo de investigación

Objectiu: Dissenyar, implementar i avaluar una intervenció multifacètica en el lloc de treball per prevenir i gestionar el dolor musculoesquelètic (DME). Mètodes: Es va dissenyar, implementar i avaluar (efectivitat, procés i cost-efectivitat) un assaig controlat aleatoritzat per clústers d'un any. La intervenció va incloure ergonomia participativa, promoció de la salut i gestió de casos. Resultats: Als 12 mesos, el grup d’intervenció va mostrar una disminució estadísticament significativa del risc de dolor d’espatlles, cervical i dorsal en comparació amb el control. No es va trobar cap efecte estadísticament significatiu per a DME en altres parts del cos, incapacitat temporal ni capacitat funcional. L’ergonomia participativa va mostrar un alt nivell d’implementació, la promoció de la salut va diferir segons l’activitat i la gestió de casos va mostrar un baix nivell d’implementació. Per reduir 1-punt-percentual extra el dolor d’espatlles, cervical i dorsal es necessitaven 3,63€ (perspectiva social) i 1,69 € (perspectiva del sistema sanitari). Conclusions: Aquesta intervenció va ser efectiva i cost-efectiva per reduir el dolor d’espatlles, cervical i dorsal, i es va implementar majoritàriament com es pretenia.
Objective: To design, implement and evaluate a multifaceted intervention in the workplace to prevent and manage musculoskeletal pain (MSP). Methods: A two-armed multifaceted cluster randomized controlled trial of one year duration was designed, implemented, and evaluated (effectiveness, process and cost-effectiveness). The intervention included participatory ergonomics, health promotion, and case management. Results: At 12 months, the intervention group showed a statistically significant decrease of the risk in neck, shoulders and upper-back pain compared to the control. No statistically significant effect was found for MSP in other locations, sickness absence nor work functioning. Participatory ergonomics showed a high implementation level, health promotion differed according to the activity and case management showed a low implementation level. To achieve 1-extra-percentual point reduction of MSP in neck, shoulders and upper-back were needed €3.63 (societal perspective) and €1.69 (health system perspective). Conclusions: This intervention was effective and cost-effective to reduce neck, shoulder and upper-back pain and predominantly implemented as intended.

AbstractThe societal changes seen in China since 1978 have created a sharp generational divide. Those born after the 1980s are mostly singletons raised with high life-expectations, both of themselves and from their families. The singletons want freedom of choice and social mobility, but the stiff competition at Chinese universities makes such ambitions unattainable for many. Study abroad is sometimes seen as an alternative gateway to social mobility. This chapter is based on participant observation of, and interviews with, a group of 40 Chinese students in Norway. The fieldwork took place from 2012 to 2014. The research questions concern (a) what motivates their sojourn, (b) their aspirations for the future and (c) how their migration would facilitate this. The findings are that they seek to construct themselves as global citizens able to travel and work anywhere. A Western degree is seen as enabling this. However, as single children, the burden of caring for their parents is theirs alone and a decline in the health of the latter would therefore necessitate an early return. Thus, the opportunities abroad are, by their nature, transitory and liable to be cut short at any time. However, the students believe that they will retain potential mobility, which may be used when their life-circumstances permit.

Abstract As a result of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the way the world works, collaborates, and plays has changed. Commerce has stalled with travel, hospitality, education, retail, and health sectors particularly affected. This paper is based on an XP 2020 panel organized by Steven Fraser and featuring Aino Corry, Steve McConnell, and Rachel Reinitz. The panel discussed the impact of COVID-19 on knowledge workers, the acceleration of digital workplace transformation, and anticipated long term effects from the pandemic in the context of agile practices. Four key observations emerged from the discussion: First, virtual collaboration between those working from home is enabled by a variety of communication tools – substituting for face-to-face interactions. Second, agile work practices are harder to perform given the virtual nature of meetings and interactions. Third, communication tools are not always adequate for high-bandwidth or informal interactions, such as brainstorming, side discussions, or hallway conversations. Fourth, forming new teams and onboarding staff is challenging in a virtual work environment.

Doctors and nurses globally are feeling unloved and underappreciated. Clinicians are expensive to train and it takes years, and once lost, they are not easily replaced. Yet we lose people from their first day in the job. They might quit because of the job itself or through personal circumstances. But if health systems want to retain people throughout their working lives, they are going to have to support them through life events—births, deaths, parenthood, sickness, caring, older age. They will also have to support them through every stage of their career too, from first job, through promotion and into retirement. They are also, like any other industry, going to have to meet legitimate expectations of a healthy, happy relationship with work. In this chapter, Mark Britnell argues that most companies spend time and effort understanding exactly what their customers want and need of them, and that it now is high time healthcare providers started asking the same about their workforce.

The IT workforce of a company is an important strategic asset, an asset that needs to be managed. This paper details the results of a survey administered to 200 employees across 39 software companies in Ireland between July and August 2001, with a response rate of 102 (51 %). It presents a descriptive study, which assesses the impact that training practices have on employee retention. It also gathers data on the effects of training initiatives, the types of training in use, and the influence of training on knowledge retention. IT staff were chosen for this study as they embody the new “knowledge worker” operating in the information economy. The study finds that training helps in retaining knowledge within the organization, but may not help in retaining employees. The predominant method of training delivery is by instructor-led formal sessions, followed by self-training and workshops. Findings show that more modern methods such as web-based and computer-based training are not pervasive.

As universities become increasingly research driven and funded on a research-basis, there is an increased need to attract graduate research students. The easiest way of doing this is to draft highly-talented undergraduate students into the research programmes. However, in a booming industrial job market, this is no easy task for Information Systems and Information Technology programmes. Recognizing that it is easier to retain than to recruit, the School of Information Management conducted an event to foster talent among students and garner interest in the graduate programmes of the school. This paper reports on the experiences of the staff members conducting the event.

The article is dedicated to studying the HR-brand of a vehicle company, and seeks ways to improve it further. Theoretical and methodological aspects of shaping the image of an organisation as an employer are now widely reflected in the works of domestic and foreign researchers in the field of human resource management. However, the applied aspects of branding in relation to specific employers from different sectors of the economy remain relevant for the study. The practical interest of the company in question is due to the high turnover rate (15%) and the shortage of young workers. For the purpose of studying the formed corporate HR-brand, the author uses an analysis of local regulations on staff management, employee questionnaires, the assessment of the employer’s value proposition, a reputational audit of the company regarding the Internet environment, etc. The analysis of the internal and external image of the employer concludes that the attractiveness of the HR brand of the enterprise among the target audience ‘young people’ needs to be improved. The successful achievement of this goal is possible through the introduction of career management practices, organising participation in professional competitions; for young promising employees already in the company, developing and implementing a preliminary programme and promoting the company on social media: for potential candidates. Forming an attractive HR brand for young people based on the implementation of a value proposition that takes into account the specifics of this target audience, using new channels and formats to promote the employer brand externally, including in the online environment, will optimise staff turnover, attract and retain talented young people and strengthen the company’s position in the market.

Traditionally business areas within an organization individually manage data essential for their operation. This data may be incorporated into specialized software applications, MS Excel or MS Access etc., e-mail filing, and hardcopy documents. These applications and data stores support the local business area decision-making and add to its knowledge. There have been problems with this approach. Data, knowledge and decisions are only captured locally within the business area and in many cases this information is not easily identifiable or available for enterprise-wide sharing. Furthermore, individuals within the business areas often keep “shadow files” of data and information. The state of accuracy, completeness, and timeliness of the data contained within these files is often questionable. Information created and managed at a local business level can be lost when a staff member leaves his or her role. This is especially significant given ongoing changes in today’s workforce. Data must be properly managed and maintained to retain its value within the organization. The development and execution of “single version of the truth” or master data management requires a partnership between the business areas, records management, legal, and the information technology groups of an organization. Master data management is expected to yield significant gains in staff effectiveness, efficiency, and productivity. In 2011, Enbridge Pipelines applied the principles of master data management and trusted data digital repositories to a widely used, geographically dispersed small database (less than 10,000 records) that had noted data shortcomings such as incomplete or incorrect data, multiple shadow files, and inconsistent usage throughout the organization of the application that stewards the data. This paper provides an overview of best practices in developing an authoritative single source of data and Enbridge experience in applying these practices to a real-world example. Challenges of the approach used by Enbridge and lessons learned will be examined and discussed.

The aim of the study was to examine the contribution of talent management practices at the National University of Lesotho in the retention of talented academics. The university has immense competition within the local, regional and international labour market. It isthreatened by high mobility and low retention of highly qualified staff, which has affected the quality of learning, especially postgraduate programmes. The study employed Bourdieu’s social theory and Adam’s theory of equity as a theoretical lens to understand talent management practices to retain talented academics. Bourdieu’s theory was used to offer insight on the various forms of capital, and how the capitals could be instrumental in the design and implementation of talent management practices in order to increase retention of talent in universities. In this study ‘talent’ is used to refer to holders of doctorates, associate professors and professors or researchers of new information and theories and inventors of new technology with great potential to make a significant impact on the university’s productivity. A literature review was undertaken to examine how the social theory of Bourdieu, particularly the conversion of different kinds of capital (symbolic capital) are used by the university to recognise the value of talented academics in order to retain these academics. Following a qualitative methodology and purposive sampling, data was generated through semi-structured interviews and document analysis to advance a critical and interpretive understanding of the perspectives of talent management from both management and talented academics in the university. Thematic analysis was used to synthesise the data. The data from fourteen (14) participants composed of management and academics revealed that, though the university is implementing talent management practices, it does not have an official and structured talent management program, which is imperative in retaining academics. This study concludes by advocating the design and implementation of a formal, contextual and structured talent management framework, in consultation with all key stakeholders, in order to increase retention of talent academics in the National University of Lesotho.

Using fused deposition modeling (FDM) 3D printing, we combine a bio-inspired bilayer architecture with distributed pre-stress and the shape memory behavior of polylactic acid (PLA) to manufacture shells with switchable bistability. These shells are stiff and monostable at room temperature, but become elastic and bistable with fast morphing when heated above their glass transition temperature. When cooled back down, the shells retain the configuration they were in at the elevated temperature and return to being stiff and monostable. These programmed deformations result from the careful design and control of how the filament is extruded by the printer and therefore, the resulting directional pre-stress. Parameter studies are presented on how to maximize the pre-stress for this application. The shells are analyzed using nonlinear finite element analysis. By leveraging the vast array of geometries accessible with 3D printing, this method can be extended to complex, multi-domain shells, including bio-inspired designs.

Nowadays, natural disasters have become much frequently in Brazil, having as result serious consequences such as social, economic and environmental damages and losses. The aim of this paper is evaluate the actions provided by TRANSPETRO in emergency span occurred in OSPAR right-of-way due to intense and heavy rains that occurred in March 2011 in the Serra do Mar Hills, in Parana State, southern Brazil. The geotechnical phenomenon affected three pipelines: • OSPAR Oil Pipeline, which is responsible for supplying the Presidente Getulio Vargas Refinery - REPAR with crude oil; • OPASC Oil Pipeline: used for distribute derivatives from REPAR to Santa Catarina State; • GASBOL Gas Pipeline: supplies Southern Brazil with natural gas from Bolivia. After several days of heavy and steady rain, on 11th March 2011 the rainfall reached the peak of 180mm in 24 hours what generated more than 50 geotechnical and hydrotechnical occurrences in OSPAR stream at Serra do Mar crossing,. The actions, necessary to reducing the hazard, required stopping of oil pipelines, decrease of internal pressure in the gas pipeline, rearrangement of internal staff and machinary structure, and support of external companies structure, such as partnerships companies and new emergency contracts including heavily aircraft support, staffs and machines. The emergency works, carried out in the occasion, leaded to the return of pipeline operations in less than five days. The total pipeline security was established with the stabilization of more than 50 geotechnical and hydrotechnical occurrences.

UKAEA’s Winfrith site was built in the late 1950’s to undertake research and development into electricity generation from nuclear power. Pioneering scientific and technical work was carried out which resulted in a better understanding of nuclear issues, particularly nuclear safety. At its peak, Winfrith employed 2000 staff and at one time had nine operational nuclear reactors. The most noticeable landmark being the Steam Generating heavy Water Reactor (SGHWR) which, when in operation, provided the National Grid with enough electricity for a small town. In the early 1990’s the UK Government wound down its programme of nuclear R&D, and work started on restoring the environment of the Winfrith site by the progressive removal of the nuclear facilities. Winfrith has always been considered to be one of three key sites in Dorset for development of quality employment, and the site management, with the support of the DTI, decided to undertake a programme of environmental restoration that retained appropriate buildings and infrastructure systems that could be put to alternative long term use. To date, successes have been achieved in both the decommissioning work and also the establishment of tenants. All the fuel has been removed from the nuclear reactors and five reactors have been completely dismantled. Decontamination of other facilities has been completed. A notable example of this work is the return of a fuel fabrication building to a green field site. Another example was the decommissioning of a building that contained gloveboxes, and laboratories equipped with high efficiency filtered ventilation systems. This building was decommissioned, the area of land containing it delicensed, and the building leased to non-nuclear tenants. This thorough, painstaking process involved the use of recently developed industry techniques and required close working with the Nuclear Installations Inspectorate (NII). The tenant base is growing and at the end of 2002 there are 40 different companies resident on site with employee numbers ranging from 1 to several hundreds with a total of ∼ 1000 staff. In addition, the UKAEA programme employs ∼ 500 as staff and contractors. The larger tenants include QinetiQ and DSTL (both from the former Defence Evaluation and Research Agency), the Natural Environment Research Council’s Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, and RWE Nukem. The progressive decommissioning work continues and as UKAEA retreats across the site, from east to west, the non-nuclear research and development businesses move in. The range of work established at Winfrith provides a focus for its further development as a scientific and technical centre of excellence. Facilities have been created in partnership with the local council for small and start-up businesses, while strong links are being encouraged with universities that have an interest in areas such as environmental research. Together they will form a vital part of the commercial community, stimulating growth through technical interaction and innovation.

The literature on WASH and school re-opening during the COVID-19 pandemic is dominated by guidelines with little in the way of recent evidence or lessons learned. Analysis of data from school re-openings at the end of 2020 suggests that with mitigation measures in place community infection rates should not be affected by children returning to school. Although children carry a lower risk of infection, they do have large numbers of contact in the school environment, so hygiene and distancing measures are important. The key guidelines for WASH in schools during the COVID-19 pandemic include: children and all school staff must be educated with regards to hand hygiene; hand hygiene stations must be provided at entrances and exits; hand washing must be frequent and requires sufficient water and soap; school buses should have hand hygiene measures in place; and the school environment must be disinfected daily. Environmental, or nudge-based, cues are recommended to support behaviour change in children based on pre-COVID-19 evidence. Examples include colourful footprints leading to a handwashing facility, images of eyes above handwashing facilities, embedding toys in soap, and putting pictures of germs on surfaces.

Invasive exotic plant (IEP) species are a significant threat to natural ecosystem integrity and biodiversity, and controlling them is a high priority for the National Park Service. The North-ern Colorado Plateau Network (NCPN) selected the early detection of IEPs as one of 11 monitoring protocols to be implemented as part of its long-term monitoring program. This report represents work completed at Colorado National Monument during 2019. During monitoring conducted June 12–19, a total of 20 IEP species were detected on monitoring routes and transects. Of these, 12 were priority species that accounted for 791 separate IEP patches. IEPs were most prevalent along riparian areas. Yellow sweetclover (Melilotis officinale) and yellow salsify (Tragopogon dubius) were the most commonly detected priority IEPs along monitoring routes, representing 73% of all priority patches. Patches of less than 40 m2 were typical of nearly all priority IEP species except yellow sweetclover. A patch management index (PMI) was created by combining patch size class and percent cover for each patch. In 2019, a large majority of priority IEP patches were assigned a PMI score of low (46%) or very low (50%), indicating small and/or sparse patches where control is generally still feasible. This is similar to the numbers for 2017, when 99% of patches scored low or very low in PMI. Seventy-eight percent of tree patches were classified as seedlings or saplings, which require less effort to control than mature trees. Cheatgrass (Anisantha tectorum) was the most common IEP recorded in transects, found in 30–77% of transects across the different routes. It was the only species found in transects on all monitoring routes. When treated and untreated extra areas near the West Entrance were compared, the treated area had comparable or higher lev-els of IEPs than the untreated area. When segments of monitoring routes conducted between 2003 and 2019 were compared, results were mixed, due to the different species monitored in different time periods. But in general, the number of IEPs per 100 meters is increasing or remaining constant over time. There were notable increases in IEP patches per 100 meters on several routes in 2019: field bindweed (Convolvulus arvensis) along East Glade Park Road; Siberian elm (Ulmus pumila) in Red Canyon; yellow salsify along East Glade Park Road, No Thoroughfare Canyon, No Thoroughfare Trail, and Red Canyon; and yellow sweetclover in No Thoroughfare Canyon and Red Canyon. Network staff will return to re-sample monitoring routes in 2021.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.