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Zeitschriftenartikel zum Thema "Rainfall events scale"
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Lindgren, Ville, Tero Niemi, Harri Koivusalo und Teemu Kokkonen. „Value of Spatially Distributed Rainfall Design Events—Creating Basin-Scale Stochastic Design Storm Ensembles“. Water 15, Nr. 17 (27.08.2023): 3066. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w15173066.
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Current design storms used in hydrological modeling, urban planning, and dimensioning of structures are typically point-scale rainfall events with a steady rainfall intensity or a simple temporal intensity pattern. This can lead to oversimplified results because real rainfall events have more complex patterns than simple design series. In addition, the interest of hydrologists is usually in areal estimates rather than point values, most commonly in river-basin-wide areal mean rainfall estimates. By utilizing weather radar data and the short-term ensemble prediction system pySTEPS, which has so far been used for precipitation nowcasting, ensembles of high-resolution stochastic design storms with desired statistical properties and spatial structure evolving in time are generated. pySTEPS is complemented by adding time-series models for areal average rainfall over the simulation domain and field advection vectors. The selected study area is the Kokemäenjoki river basin located in Western Finland, and the model parametrization is carried out utilizing the Finnish Meteorological Institute’s weather radar data from the years 2013 to 2016. The results demonstrate how simulated events with similar large-scale mean areal rainfall can produce drastically different total event rainfalls in smaller scales. The sampling method, areal vs. gauge estimate, is also shown to have a prominent effect on total event rainfall across different spatial scales. The outlined method paves the way towards a more thorough and wide-spread assessment of the hydrological impacts of spatiotemporal rainfall characteristics.
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Kim, Youngkyu, Minwoo Son und Sunmin Kim. „Application of Large-scale Climate Simulation Data to Evaluate the Scale of Extreme Rainfall Events: A Case of the 2018 Hiroshima Extreme-scale Rainfall Event“. Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 22, Nr. 2 (30.04.2022): 27–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.9798/kosham.2022.22.2.27.
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This study aims to apply large-scale climate ensemble simulation data to evaluate the magnitude of extreme rainfall events. It was conducted on the basis of extreme rainfall that occurred in the Hiroshima region in 2018. This event recorded an extreme rainfall magnitude corresponding to a return period of 1,000 years at a 24-h rainfall duration; it is difficult to evaluate this magnitude with the concept of probability rainfall based on frequency analysis due to the short observation period. To overcome this limitation, the data for policy decision making for future (d4PDF) climate change database based on a large-scale climate ensemble simulation was used. These data provided 3,000 annual maximum daily rainfall values, which were used to empirically estimate the probability rainfall with a return period of 10-1,000 years based on a non-parametric approach without statistical methods. The estimated probability rainfall of the d4PDF was compared with the estimated probability obtained from the observed rainfall and frequency analysis. The difference between the two probability rainfall values was 3.53% for the return period of 50 years. However, as the return period increases, the error increases to more than 10%. This indicates that the estimation of the probability rainfall with a long-term return period using the observed data of a relatively short period may present uncertainties. Regarding the probability rainfall using d4PDF under present climate conditions, the Hiroshima event represented a return period of nearly 300 years. Meanwhile, for the probability rainfall using the d4PDF under future climate conditions, the Hiroshima event had a return period of nearly 100 years. Consequently, the magnitude of the probability rainfall increased in future climate conditions, and the probability of the occurrence of extreme rainfall corresponding to the Hiroshima event increased from 0.33% to 1%. Therefore, d4PDF can be used to quantitatively evaluate the magnitude of extreme rainfall events under present and future climate conditions.
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Carbone, Marco, Michele Turco, Giuseppe Brunetti und Patrizia Piro. „Minimum Inter-Event Time to Identify Independent Rainfall Events in Urban Catchment Scale“. Advanced Materials Research 1073-1076 (Dezember 2014): 1630–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.1073-1076.1630.
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For many hydrologic analyses, planning or design problems, reliable rainfall estimates are necessary. For this reason, an accurate estimation of storm event properties is central to continuous simulation of rainfall. Rainfall is generally noted as single events or storms where the beginning and the end are defined by rainless of particular size duration called Minimum Inter-event Time (MIT). Starting from a critical study of the state of the art, this paper intends to investigate the definition of MIT for rainfall events shorter than an hour that, on an urban scale, are the most critical for designers, planners and operators of urban drainage system. All event characteristics such as depth and mean rain rate, are influenced by the choice of the value of MIT. This paper reviews the range of approaches used in literature and after this, based on a year of pluviograph records on an urban catchment, proposes a value of MIT according to catchment network entry time.
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Rebora, N., L. Ferraris, J. von Hardenberg und A. Provenzale. „Rainfall downscaling and flood forecasting: a case study in the Mediterranean area“. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 6, Nr. 4 (12.07.2006): 611–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-611-2006.
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Abstract. The prediction of the small-scale spatial-temporal pattern of intense rainfall events is crucial for flood risk assessment in small catchments and urban areas. In the absence of a full deterministic modelling of small-scale rainfall, it is common practice to resort to the use of stochastic downscaling models to generate ensemble rainfall predictions to be used as inputs to rainfall-runoff models. In this work we present an application of a new spatial-temporal downscaling procedure, called RainFARM, to an intense precipitation event predicted by the limited-area meteorological model Lokal Model over north-west Italy. The uncertainty in flood prediction associated with the small unresolved scales of forecasted precipitation fields is evaluated by using an ensemble of downscaled fields to drive a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model.
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Rebora, Nicola, Luca Ferraris, Jost von Hardenberg und Antonello Provenzale. „RainFARM: Rainfall Downscaling by a Filtered Autoregressive Model“. Journal of Hydrometeorology 7, Nr. 4 (01.08.2006): 724–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm517.1.
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Abstract A method is introduced for stochastic rainfall downscaling that can be easily applied to the precipitation forecasts provided by meteorological models. Our approach, called the Rainfall Filtered Autoregressive Model (RainFARM), is based on the nonlinear transformation of a Gaussian random field, and it conserves the information present in the rainfall fields at larger scales. The procedure is tested on two radar-measured intense rainfall events, one at midlatitude and the other in the Tropics, and it is shown that the synthetic fields generated by RainFARM have small-scale statistical properties that are consistent with those of the measured precipitation fields. The application of the disaggregation procedure to an example meteorological forecast illustrates how the method can be implemented in operational practice.
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Kaspar, M., und M. Müller. „Selection of historic heavy large-scale rainfall events in the Czech Republic“. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 8, Nr. 6 (09.12.2008): 1359–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-8-1359-2008.
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Abstract. The Central European floods of July 1997 and August 2002 spotlighted the need for systematic research of the relationships between synoptic-scale conditions and heavy large-scale rainfalls. Creating a set of historic events underlies such research. We defined the criterion for their selection, which is based on daily areal precipitation amounts in predefined sub-regions. To stress the hydrological responses of precipitation, the criterion expresses the temporal distribution of daily areal precipitation in a three-day period. We applied the criterion to clusters of the Czech Republic river basins that were affected by high areal precipitation almost simultaneously during individual events. Finally, we selected events with the ten highest criterion values within each cluster during the warmer half-years from 1951 to 2006. Regarding the spatial extent of heavy rainfalls, we identified a few events during which a substantial part of the Czech Republic was affected. The events include, for instance, the floods of July 1997 and August 2002 that were unique in terms of precipitation totals. The uniqueness of the event in 2002 is that it consisted of two episodes that occurred in rapid succession and demonstrated heavy rainfall that affected almost the same area. Regarding the spatial distribution of precipitation, we identified several groups of events in which heavy rainfall affected similar sub-regions of the Czech Republic. This attribute was most likely related to similar synoptic-scale conditions. In terms of the seasonal variability, the most significant events were concentrated in high summer, which is typical of orographically exposed clusters. Interannual variability of the events was characterized by two main ten-year periods with a rather low frequency of occurrence followed by the years with increased frequency. The analysis of both the hydrological responses and synoptic-dynamic conditions of the events will be the object of further research.
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Maier, Roman, Gerald Krebs, Markus Pichler, Dirk Muschalla und Günter Gruber. „Spatial Rainfall Variability in Urban Environments—High-Density Precipitation Measurements on a City-Scale“. Water 12, Nr. 4 (18.04.2020): 1157. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12041157.
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Rainfall runoff models are frequently used for design processes for urban infrastructure. The most sensitive input for these models is precipitation data. Therefore, it is crucial to account for temporal and spatial variability of rainfall events as accurately as possible to avoid misleading simulation results. This paper aims to show the significant errors that can occur by using rainfall measurement resolutions in urban environments that are too coarse. We analyzed the spatial variability of rainfall events from two years with the validated data of 22 rain gauges spread out over an urban catchment of 125 km2. By looking at the interstation correlation of the rain gauges for different classes of rainfall intensities, we found that rainfall events with low and intermediate intensities show a good interstation correlation. However, the correlation drops significantly for heavy rainfall events suggesting higher spatial variability for more intense rainstorms. Further, we analyzed the possible deviation from the spatial rainfall interpolation that uses all available rain gauges when reducing the number of rain gauges to interpolate the spatial rainfall for 24 chosen events. With these analyses we found that reducing the available information by half results in deviations of up to 25% for events with return periods shorter than one year and 45% for events with longer return periods. Assuming uniformly distributed rainfall over the entire catchment resulted in deviations of up to 75% and 125%, respectively. These findings are supported by the work of past research projects and underline the necessity of a high spatial measurement density in order to account for spatial variability of intense rainstorms.
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Zillgens, B., B. Merz, R. Kirnbauer und N. Tilch. „Analysis of the runoff response of an Alpine catchment at different scales“. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 2, Nr. 5 (09.09.2005): 1923–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-2-1923-2005.
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Abstract. To understand how hydrological processes are related across different spatial scales, 201 rainfall runoff events were examined in three nested catchments of the upper river Saalach in the Austrian Alps. The Saalach basin is a nested catchment covering different spatial scales, from the micro-scale (Limberg, 0.07 km2), to the small-catchment scale (Rammern, 15.5 km2), and the meso-scale (Viehhofen, 150 km2). At these three scales two different event types could clearly be identified, depending on rainfall characteristics and initial baseflow level: (1) a unimodal event type with a quick rising and falling hydrograph, responding to short duration rainfall, and (2) a bimodal event type with a double peak hydrograph at the micro-scale and substantially increased flow values at the larger basins Rammern and Viehhofen, responding to long duration rainfall events. In all cases where a bimodal event was identified at the microscale, the hydrographs at the larger scales exhibited significantly attenuated recession behavior, quantified by recession constants. At all scales, the bimodal events are associated with considerably higher runoff volumes than the unimodal events. From the investigations at the headwater Limberg we came to the conclusion that the higher amount of runoff of bimodal events is due to the mobilization of subsurface flow processes. The analysis shows that the occurrence of the two event types is consistent over three orders of magnitude in area. This link between the scales means that the runoff behavior of the headwater may be used as an indicator of the runoff behavior of much larger areas.
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Zillgens, B., B. Merz, R. Kirnbauer und N. Tilch. „Analysis of the runoff response of an alpine catchment at different scales“. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 11, Nr. 4 (18.07.2007): 1441–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1441-2007.
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Abstract. To understand how hydrological processes are related across different spatial scales, 201 rainfall runoff events were examined in three nested catchments of the upper river Saalach in the Austrian Alps. The Saalach basin is a nested catchment covering different spatial scales, from the micro-scale (Limberg, 0.07 km²), to the small-catchment scale (Rammern, 15.5 km²), and the meso-scale (Viehhofen, 150 km²). At these three scales two different event types could clearly be identified, depending on rainfall characteristics and initial baseflow level: (1) a unimodal event type with a quick rising and falling hydrograph, responding to short duration rainfall, and (2) a bimodal event type with a double peak hydrograph at the micro-scale and substantially increased flow values at the larger basins Rammern and Viehhofen, responding to long duration rainfall events. In all cases where a bimodal event was identified at the microscale, the hydrographs at the larger scales exhibited significantly attenuated recession behavior, quantified by recession constants. At all scales, the bimodal events are associated with considerably higher runoff volumes than the unimodal events. From the investigations at the headwater Limberg we came to the conclusion that the higher amount of runoff of bimodal events is due to the mobilization of subsurface flow processes. The analysis shows that the occurrence of the two event types is consistent over three orders of magnitude in area. This link between the scales means that the runoff behavior of the headwater may be used as an indicator of the runoff behavior of much larger areas.
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Hamada, Atsushi, und Yukari N. Takayabu. „Large-Scale Environmental Conditions Related to Midsummer Extreme Rainfall Events around Japan in the TRMM Region“. Journal of Climate 31, Nr. 17 (September 2018): 6933–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0632.1.
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The precipitation characteristics of extreme events in August determined from 13 years of satellite data around Japan in the TRMM observation region and their relationship with large-scale environmental conditions are examined. Two types of extreme events, extreme rainfall and extreme convective events, are defined in each analysis grid box using maximum near-surface rainfall and maximum 40-dB Z echo-top height in each event, respectively. There are clear differences in precipitation characteristics between the two types of extreme events. Extreme rainfall events are more organized precipitation systems than the extreme convective events, with relatively lower echo-top heights and very low lightning activity. There are also clear differences in the related environmental conditions, where the environments related to the extreme rainfall events are somewhat convectively stable and very humid in almost the entire troposphere. These facts are consistent with our previous studies and reinforce the importance of warm-rain processes in extremely intense precipitation productions. The environments related to the extreme rainfall events exhibit a zonally extended moist anomaly in the free troposphere from southern China to the east of Japan, indicating that the excessive moisture transported from the west by a large-scale flow may partially play a role in producing environmental conditions favorable for extreme rainfall. On the other hand, the environments related to extreme convective events are not associated with free-tropospheric moisture inflow. The relationships with the tropical cyclones and upper-tropospheric dynamical fields are also examined, and are found to be clearly different between the extreme rainfall events and extreme convective events.
Dissertationen zum Thema "Rainfall events scale"
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Zhang, Huan Verfasser], und Klaus [Akademischer Betreuer] [Fraedrich. „Extreme rainfall events in simulations, theory and related large-scale dynamic processes / Huan Zhang. Betreuer: Klaus Fraedrich“. Hamburg : Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg, 2014. http://d-nb.info/1051435463/34.
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Derouiche, Sabrine. „Impact du changement climatique dans les modèles numériques à l'échelle régionale“. Electronic Thesis or Diss., université Paris-Saclay, 2022. http://www.theses.fr/2022UPASJ025.
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La région méditerranéenne est considérée une des zones les plus vulnérables au changement climatique.Plusieurs études élaborées sur l'évolution temporelle de différents paramètres météorologiques ont trouvé une variabilité climatiques significative à la fin du XXe siècle.En plus, d'après les modèles de projection climatique, il est attendu que les changements climatiques s'intensifient sur toute la région vers la fin du XXIe siècle.Par conséquence,leurs impacts deviennent de plus en plus dangereux et couteux. La pluie est considérée comme la signature la plus sensible du climat pour l'Homme.Ainsi,son analyse et la caractérisation des régime pluviométriques dans la région permet d'appréhender son évolution future. Cette recherche s'appuie surtout sur une base de données journalières des observations sur 70 stations pluviométriques sur une période de 50 ans (1960-2009) et sur une échelle régionale concernant le nord de la Tunisie. D'autre part, les pluies journalières calculées par des modèles de réanalyse ERA-Interim sont également considérées. Ces données ont l'avantage d'être complètes dans le temps et dans l'espace. Elles peuvent jouer un rôle important dans la compréhension de la variabilité climatique d'où il est primordial d'évaluer leur qualité par rapport aux observations. Le traitement des données pluviométriques est également inédit puisqu'il s'agit d'analyser la variabilité spatiale et temporelle à l'échelle de structures pluvieuses organisées en événements pluvieux. Bien que les précipitations, en Tunisie, ont été analysées par plusieurs hydrologues et géographes à différentes échelles allant de quelques minutes à des années, le découpage en épisodes pluvieux et épisodes secs proposé dans ce travail est original.Cette approche vise à prendre en considération le caractère intermittent de la pluie, qui est une des propriétés fondamentales des précipitations.L'agrégation des jours de pluie a conduit à envisager six descripteurs des événements pluvieux pour chaque station sur une période de 50 ans.L'espace multidimensionnel ainsi créé est analysé en première partie par une méthode factorielle classique (l'analyse en composantes principales ACP). Puis par la méthode de classification non-linéaire SOM (Self-Organizing Map) associée à une classification hiérarchique ascendante (CHA). Les deux approches ont permis de comprendre les structures des données et d'en définir une typologie. L'ACP a conduit à résumer les descripteurs de pluie adoptés en trois composantes principales : La première représente un indicateur de quantité de pluie, la seconde l'intermittence des pluies et la troisième est un indicateur de structure. L'interprétation spatiale a divisé la zone d'étude en trois régions d'orientation NE-SO, avec une opposition entre la façade Nord-Ouest et son arrière-pays et la façade Sud-Est et son arrière-pays avec une zone intermédiaire située entre ces deux régions. Par ailleurs, la thèse investigue les corrélations entre les composantes principales et des indices climatiques dérivant les modes de variabilité climatiques. Des corrélations significatives ont été mises en évidence pour les indices Oscillation nord Atlantique et Oscillation Arctique. Aussi, des liens entre les anomalies de pression à la surface de la mer et les composantes principales ont été montré par des une analyse composite. Les méthodes combinées (SOM et CHA) sont appliquées aux descripteurs de pluie associés au réseau de mesure et met en évidence 4 classes ayant des typologies différentes pour les structures d'épisodes pluvieux. Leur variabilité spatiale et temporelle a ensuite été analysée. Ces classes sont utilisées comme une référence pour l'analyse des données estimées par le modèle de réanalyse. La comparaison avec les observations a montré que les distributions statistiques n'ont pas la même asymétrie.Par contre, le modèle montre une bonne cohérence des structures temporelle des classes de pluie avec les observations à une échelle régionaleThe Mediterranean region is considered one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change because of its socio-cultural wealth and its biodiversity. Several studies about the evolution of different parameters found a significant climate variability at the end of the 20th century. Moreover,according to climate projection models, an intensification of this climate change is expected, over the region, to the end of the 21th century.Consequently, their impacts become more dangerous and expensive. Rain is considered to be the most sensitive signature of climate for humans. Thus, its analysis and the characterization of rainfall regimes over the region allow to apprehend its future evolution. This study is mainly based on daily rainfall observations collected from 70 rain gauge stations over 50-year period (1960-2009) on a regional scale covering all of northern Tunisia. On the other hand, daily precipitations produced by ERA-Interim reanalysis model, equally at regional scale, are also considered in this study. These estimated data have the advantage of being complete over the time and the space. They can have an important role in understanding the climate variability, hence it is essential to assess their quality in relation to observations. The rainfall data processing is novel. Indeed, the analysis of spatial and temporal variability analysis was carried out on the rain event scale. Although rainfall in Tunisia has been analysed by several hydrologists and geographers at different scales ranging from a few minutes to years, the division into rainy episodes and dry episodes proposed in this analysis is original. This approach aims to take into account the intermittent nature of the rain which is one of the fundamental properties of the precipitations. The aggregation of rainy days led to consider six descriptors of rainy events for each measurement point over a period of 50 years. The multidimensional space, thus, created was analysed in the first part by a classic factorial method PCA (Principal Component Analysis), then by the non-linear classification method SOM (Self-Organizing Map) combined with Hierarchical agglomerative clustering (HAC). The two approaches allowed to understand the rainfall data structures and to define a typology. The principal component analysis summarized the six rainfall descriptors adopted into three main components: the first one is an indicator of the rainfall quantity, the second one represents the intermittent character of rain over the season and the third one is a structure indicator. The spatial interpretation divided the study area into three regions of NE-SW orientation, with an opposition between the North-West facade and its hinterland and the South-East facade and its hinterland with an intermediate zone located between these two regions. Moreover, the thesis investigated the correlations between the principal components of PCAs and climate patterns indices. Significant correlations were found for the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation indices. In addition, relationships between sea surface pressure anomalies and principal components were shown by a composite analysis. The combined methods (SOM and HAC) were applied to rainfall descriptors produced by the rain gauge stations network and highlighted 4 classes with different typologies of wet spells structure. Their spatial and temporal variability was, then, analysed. These classes were used as a reference for the analysis of the reanalysis data.The univariate and multivariate analysis of the model data and the comparison with the observations showed that the number of rainy days and the duration of the events are significantly overestimated in the reanalyses. Moreover, the statistical distributions didn't have the same asymmetry. On the other hand, the model showed a good coherence of the temporal structures of the rainfall classes with the observations on a regional scale
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Barbosa, Luís Romero. „Relações de precipitações-umidade do solo-vazão de eventos sub-diários em bacias experimentais do NE Brasileiro“. Universidade Federal da Paraíba, 2015. http://tede.biblioteca.ufpb.br:8080/handle/tede/7683.
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The assessment of rainfall-runoff transformation mechanisms with high temporal resolution data has proven crucial to the improving of hydrological studies, by providing detailed knowledge and information about the properties and the characteristics of their main variables. This study aimed at assessing the influence of rainfall event definition criteria in determining the characteristics of hyetographs, as well as in investigating the hydrological relations of rainfall events and antecedent soil moisture with those of the runoff hydrograph, by means of statistical techniques, in experimental basins in Northeast Brazil. To this end, a portion of the data was acquired, in sub-hourly scale, from the databases maintained by the partners of the research since 2003 and the other one was monitored and taken along the hydrological year of 2013-2014 through frequent measurements, performing essays and data processing. Then, descriptive statistics, hypothesis testing, exploratory data analysis, multivariate statistical techniques and multiple linear regression were carried out either for visual inspection or for statistical data investigation, in order to establish variation patterns and evaluate the association degree among variables. The first study revealed that the variation in minimum inter-event time criteria has reduced by almost 50% the number of events, and underestimated the average intensity of events by 4 times on average. The second study showed that the tropical coastal basin has approximately 4 times more events than those of semiarid, of which 6% of all events that remain unshaped, contribute to 38% of the total precipitation, and could be reduced by up to 97%, becoming mainly on unimodal events with peak to the left. The third study showed that soil moisture has a similar variation pattern up to 3 days in advance and exerts a significant influence, along with the precipitation and duration of rainfall events on both the runoff coefficient, the peak and the discharge of hydrographs; on the other hand, the principal component responsible for the peak and intensities of hyetographs was significant only on the runoff coefficient, which was, in turn, the best feature set for the multiple linear regression analysis, as it the coefficient of determination was 0.66. Therefore, this study highlights the importance of continuous and systematic hydro-climatological data monitoring for the experimental studies that may provide input to decision-making in water resources management measures.
O entendimento dos mecanismos de transformação chuva-vazão com dados em alta resolução temporal mostra-se fundamental no aperfeiçoamento da maior parte dos estudos hidrológicos, ao provê conhecimento e informação detalhada a respeito das propriedades e características de suas principais variáveis. Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar a influência dos critérios de definição de evento chuvoso na determinação das características dos hietogramas, bem como investigar as relações hidrológicas dos eventos chuvosos e da umidade antecedente do solo com aquelas dos hidrogramas de escoamento superficial, por meio de técnicas estatísticas, em bacias experimentais do Nordeste Brasileiro. Para tanto, uma parcela dos dados foi adquirida, em escala sub-horária, dos bancos de dados mantidos pelos parceiros da Rede de Hidrologia do Semiárido (REHISA) desde 2003 e a outra foi monitorada e obtida ao longo do hidrológico 2013-2014, por meio de frequentes medições, realização de ensaios e tratamento de dados. Em seguida, técnicas de estatística descritiva, testes de aderência e de hipóteses, métodos exploratórios de dados, análises estatísticas multivariadas e técnicas de regressão linear múltipla foram utilizadas, quer na inspeção visual, quer na investigação estatística dos dados, a fim de estabelecer padrões de variação e avaliar o grau de associação entre variáveis. O primeiro estudo realizado revelou que a variação do critério de mínimo intervalo de tempo entre eventos fez reduzir em até quase 50% o número de eventos, além de subestimar a intensidade média dos eventos 4 vezes, em média. O segundo estudo mostrou que a bacia hidrográfica tropical costeira apresenta aproximadamente 4 vezes mais eventos do que as do semiárido, dos quais 6% da totalidade dos eventos que permanecem não caracterizados, contribuem para 38% do total precipitado, e puderam ser reduzidos em até 97%, transformando-se, sobretudo, em eventos do tipo unimodal com pico à esquerda. O terceiro estudo mostrou que a umidade do solo apresenta um padrão de variação similar até 3 dias de antecedência e exerce uma influência significante, juntamente com a lâmina precipitada e a duração dos eventos chuvosos, sobre o coeficiente de escoamento, o pico e a vazão do hidrograma; por outro lado, a componente responsável pelo pico e intensidades dos hietogramas foi significante apenas sobre o coeficiente de escoamento, este que, por sua vez, foi a característica melhor ajustada pela análise de regressão múltipla, dado o coeficiente de determinação de 0,66. Portanto, este estudo evidencia a importância do monitoramento contínuo e sistemático de dados hidroclimatológicos para a realização de estudos experimentais que venham a dar subsídios à tomada de decisões em medidas de gerenciamento de recursos hídricos.
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Smith, Andrew Philip. „A national scale rainfall analysis and event-based model of extremes for the UK“. Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 2009. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.519592.
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Kucharski, Fred, und Muhammad Adnan Abid. Interannual Variability of the Indian Monsoon and Its Link to ENSO. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.615.
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The interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon is probably one of the most intensively studied phenomena in the research area of climate variability. This is because even relatively small variations of about 10% to 20% from the mean rainfall may have dramatic consequences for regional agricultural production. Forecasting such variations months in advance could help agricultural planning substantially. Unfortunately, a perfect forecast of Indian monsoon variations, like any other regional climate variations, is impossible in a long-term prediction (that is, more than 2 weeks or so in advance). The reason is that part of the atmospheric variations influencing the monsoon have an inherent predictability limit of about 2 weeks. Therefore, such predictions will always be probabilistic, and only likelihoods of droughts, excessive rains, or normal conditions may be provided. However, even such probabilistic information may still be useful for agricultural planning. In research regarding interannual Indian monsoon rainfall variations, the main focus is therefore to identify the remaining predictable component and to estimate what fraction of the total variation this component accounts for. It turns out that slowly varying (with respect to atmospheric intrinsic variability) sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) provide the dominant part of the predictable component of Indian monsoon variability. Of the predictable part arising from SSTs, it is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that provides the main part. This is not to say that other forcings may be neglected. Other forcings that have been identified are, for example, SST patterns in the Indian Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and parts of the Pacific Ocean different from the traditional ENSO region, and springtime snow depth in the Himalayas, as well as aerosols. These other forcings may interact constructively or destructively with the ENSO impact and thus enhance or reduce the ENSO-induced predictable signal. This may result in decade-long changes in the connection between ENSO and the Indian monsoon. The physical mechanism for the connection between ENSO and the Indian monsoon may be understood as large-scale adjustment of atmospheric heatings and circulations to the ENSO-induced SST variations. These adjustments modify the Walker circulation and connect the rising/sinking motion in the central-eastern Pacific during a warm/cold ENSO event with sinking/rising motion in the Indian region, leading to reduced/increased rainfall.
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Newman, Chris, Christina D. Buesching und David W. Macdonald. Meline mastery of meteorological mayhem: the effects of climate changeability on European badger population dynamics. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198759805.003.0021.
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Adaptation to climatic conditions is a major ecological and evolutionary driver. Long-term study of European badger population dynamics in Oxfordshire reveals that rainfall and temperature patterns affect food (principally earthworm) availability, energy expended in thermoregulation, and activity patterns, with badgers able to seek refuge in their setts. Cubs prove especially vulnerable to harsh weather conditions, where drought and food shortages exacerbate the severity of pandemic juvenile coccidial parasite infections. Crucially, weather variability, rather than just warming trends, stresses badgers, by destabilising their bioclimatic niche. Summer droughts cause mortality, even driving genetic selection; and while milder winters generally benefit badgers, less time spent in torpor leads to more road casualties. Similar effects also operate over a wide spatial scale in Ireland, impacting regional badger densities and bodyweights. That even an adaptable, generalist musteloid is so variously susceptible to weather conditions highlights how climate change places many species and ecosystems at risk.
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Fensholt, Rasmus, Cheikh Mbow, Martin Brandt und Kjeld Rasmussen. Desertification and Re-Greening of the Sahel. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.553.
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In the past 50 years, human activities and climatic variability have caused major environmental changes in the semi-arid Sahelian zone and desertification/degradation of arable lands is of major concern for livelihoods and food security. In the wake of the Sahel droughts in the early 1970s and 1980s, the UN focused on the problem of desertification by organizing the UN Conference on Desertification (UNCOD) in Nairobi in 1976. This fuelled a significant increase in the often alarmist popular accounts of desertification as well as scientific efforts in providing an understanding of the mechanisms involved. The global interest in the subject led to the nomination of desertification as focal point for one of three international environmental conventions: the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), emerging from the Rio conference in 1992. This implied that substantial efforts were made to quantify the extent of desertification and to understand its causes. Desertification is a complex and multi-faceted phenomenon aggravating poverty that can be seen as both a cause and a consequence of land resource depletion. As reflected in its definition adopted by the UNCCD, desertification is “land degradation in arid, semi-arid[,] and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climate variation and human activities” (UN, 1992). While desertification was seen as a phenomenon of relevance to drylands globally, the Sahel-Sudan region remained a region of specific interest and a significant amount of scientific efforts have been invested to provide an empirically supported understanding of both climatic and anthropogenic factors involved. Despite decades of intensive research on human–environmental systems in the Sahel, there is no overall consensus about the severity of desertification and the scientific literature is characterized by a range of conflicting observations and interpretations of the environmental conditions in the region. Earth Observation (EO) studies generally show a positive trend in rainfall and vegetation greenness over the last decades for the majority of the Sahel and this has been interpreted as an increase in biomass and contradicts narratives of a vicious cycle of widespread degradation caused by human overuse and climate change. Even though an increase in vegetation greenness, as observed from EO data, can be confirmed by ground observations, long-term assessments of biodiversity at finer spatial scales highlight a negative trend in species diversity in several studies and overall it remains unclear if the observed positive trends provide an environmental improvement with positive effects on people’s livelihood.
Buchteile zum Thema "Rainfall events scale"
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Bandara, H. A. A. I. S., und Ryo Onishi. „High Resolution Numerical Weather Simulation for Orographic Precipitation as an Accurate Early Warning Tool for Landslide Vulnerable Terrains“. In Progress in Landslide Research and Technology, 239–46. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-44296-4_11.
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AbstractAccurate early warning for rain-induced landslides is still challenging due to regional and local variations of rainfall prediction due to low accuracy, and resolution. The “Multi-Scale Simulator for the Geoenvironment (MSSG)” system, developed by the Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology and Waseda University allows for high-resolution simulations and seamless modeling of weather and climate interactions, and employs advanced meteorological aspects.MSSG simulations compared with rainfall data recorded in the Aranayaka automated rain gauge for past events, including the devastating landslide in 2016. The simulations achieved satisfactory results in reproducing rainfall events. Higher-resolution simulations exhibited higher maximum rainfall intensity and cumulative rainfall accumulation. This study emphasizes the importance of considering finer scales in meteorological simulations to effectively capture the intricate variations associated with extreme rainfall events. This study places significant emphasis on the importance of considering finer scales in meteorological simulations in order to confirm the necessity of high resolutions to capture the temporal and spatial variations of orographic rainfall.
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Dartée, Kieran Wilhelmus Jacobus, Thomas Biffin und Karina Peña. „The Opportunities and Challenges for Urban NBS: Lessons from Implementing the Urban Waterbuffer in Rotterdam“. In Water Security in a New World, 325–45. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-25308-9_16.
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AbstractIn Rotterdam, the proportion of impervious surfaces has increased due to urbanisation and changing land use priorities. Combined with the effects of increasingly frequent extreme rain events and longer dry periods, the current capacity of the urban water system is reaching its limits. In response to the lack of retention capacity in the neighbourhood Spangen, a hybrid Nature-based Solution (NBS) was implemented in the summer of 2018. This NBS, called the Urban Waterbuffer, has been at the heart of the Rotterdam case study, focusing on drivers and barriers for implementation, direct and indirect costs, and (co-)benefits of the system. The case study compared this hybrid approach to dealing with heavy rainfall with grey and green alternatives at a neighbourhood scale. Seven lessons were drawn on the opportunities and challenges for implementing NBS for urban water management in the Dutch context. The smaller scale of this case study, compared to other case studies in the NAIAD project, highlighted the similarities and differences in NBS effectiveness and viability across a wide range of spatial scales. The lessons learned from this Rotterdam case study can facilitate future decision-making on, and implementation of climate-adaptive urban water management strategies across Europe.
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Passalacqua, Roberto, Rossella Bovolenta und Bianca Federici. „An Integrated Hydrological-Geotechnical Model in GIS for the Analysis and Prediction of Large-Scale Landslides Triggered by Rainfall Events“. In Engineering Geology for Society and Territory - Volume 2, 1799–803. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09057-3_318.
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Vacha, Damiano, Giuseppe Mandrone, Donato Morresi und Matteo Garbarino. „Mapping Post-fire Monthly Erosion Rates at the Catchment Scale Using Empirical Models Implemented in GIS. A Case Study in Northern Italy“. In Progress in Landslide Research and Technology, Volume 1 Issue 1, 2022, 99–112. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-16898-7_6.
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AbstractPost-wildfire geological hazards are an emerging problem for a number of different environments, including areas not typically associated with these events such as the Alpine Region. The risk connected with post-fire processes such as debris-flows and flood-type events threatens people, infrastructures, services and economical activities. Apart from a few examples, such as in the USA and Australia, there is a lack of models available to quantify the increase in susceptibility of the aforementioned phenomena as a result of the modification induced by the wildfires. In this work we test the application of a modified version of the RUSLE, on GIS, to quantify the post-fire erosive phenomena for a case study in the north-western Italian Alps. The results of its application, taking advantage of high-resolution rainfall series and data deriving from field surveys, highlight the marked increase (more than 20 times) in erosion rates, quantified by expressing both the EI (erodibility index), the A (monthly soil loss) and the SL (monthly sediment loss) rise. The months of April, May and June represent the larger share of the total quantities. This is a consequence of the noticeable increase of the EI, which for the post-fire scenario is more than one order of magnitude higher than the pre-fire one.
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Ng, Charles W. W., Sunil Poudyal, Haiming Liu, Aastha Bhatta, W. A. Roanga K. De Silva und Zhenyang Jia. „Investigation of Debris Flow Impact Mechanisms and Designs“. In Progress in Landslide Research and Technology, 311–22. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-44296-4_17.
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AbstractDebris flows are catastrophic landslides increasing in severity in recent decades due to the more frequent and intense rainfall events under climate change. Debris flows pose a serious threat to infrastructure, settlements, and the natural environment in mountainous regions around the world causing considerable economic losses every year. To mitigate debris flows, single and multiple rigid and flexible barriers are constructed along the predicted debris flow paths. Compared with single barriers, multiple barriers are more advantageous in mitigating large debris flow volumes by progressively retaining and decelerating the flow with much smaller barrier sizes. These smaller barriers are not only easier to construct on steep hillslopes but also reduce the carbon footprint compared to large single barriers. However, current understanding of debris flow impact mechanisms on single and multiple barriers is limited due to the complex composition and scale-dependent nature of debris flow. The need of using different barrier configurations further adds to this complexity and the impact mechanisms of debris flow against single and multiple barriers are yet to be elucidated, thereby hindering the development of scientific design guidelines. This paper examines the impact mechanisms of water, dry granular and two-phase debris flows on barriers of varying stiffness, openings and numbers based on physical and numerical results, and provides recommendations for design of debris-resisting single and multiple barriers.
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Tofani, Veronica, Elena Benedetta Masi und Guglielmo Rossi. „Physically-Based Regional Landslide Forecasting Modelling: Model Set-up and Validation“. In Progress in Landslide Research and Technology, 127–35. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-44296-4_4.
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AbstractIn this work, the HIgh REsolution Slope Stability Simulator (HIRESSS) model was applied to predict the occurrence of shallow landslides on a regional scale. HIRESSS is a physically based distributed slope stability simulator for analyzing the occurrence of shallow landslides during a rainfall event. The modeling software consists of two parts: hydrological and a geotechnical. The hydrological model is based on an analytical solution of an approximated form of the Richards equation, while the geotechnical stability model is based on an infinite slope model that accounts for unsaturated soil conditions. The model was applied in the Aosta Valley region, located in the northwest of the Alpine chain. The Aosta Valley is highly susceptible to landslides, especially shallow, rapid landslides and rockfalls. The geotechnical and hydrological characteristics of the slopes were recorded in two field measurement campaigns at 12 measurement points. To account for the effects of vegetation on landslides the soil reinforcement due to the presence of roots was also taken into account. The model was applied in back analysis for an event that affected the Aosta Valley in 2009, triggering several fast shallow landslides. In this work the model setup and the validation of the model outcomes are described.
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Tanyanyiwa, Vincent Itai. „The Impact of Climate Change and Variability on Small-Scale Peri-Urban Horticultural Farmers in Domboshawa, Zimbabwe“. In Intellectual, Scientific, and Educational Influences on Sustainability Research, 46–69. IGI Global, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-7302-9.ch003.
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Zimbabwe is a semi-arid country reliant on regular rains (November-April). Mean annual rainfall is low, and many rivers in the drier parts of the country are not perennial. In the small-scale horticultural sector, irrigation becomes handy. Rainfall exhibits spatial and temporal variability. This scenario is characterized by shifts in the onset of rains, increases in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, increases in the proportion of low rainfall years, decreases in low-intensity rainfall events, and increases in the frequency and intensity of mid-season dry spells. Drought have increased in frequency and intensity. Agriculture is the main source of income for most smallholder farmers who depend on rain-fed cropping and livestock rearing. Adaptation of agriculture to climate variability and change impacts is vital for livelihood. To develop appropriate strategies and institutional responses to climate change adaptation, a clear understanding of climate change impacts on smallholder farmers at farm-level is vital.
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Tanyanyiwa, Vincent Itai. „The Impact of Climate Change and Variability on Small-Scale Peri-Urban Horticultural Farmers in Domboshawa, Zimbabwe“. In Research Anthology on Environmental and Societal Impacts of Climate Change, 1535–53. IGI Global, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-6684-3686-8.ch076.
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Zimbabwe is a semi-arid country reliant on regular rains (November-April). Mean annual rainfall is low, and many rivers in the drier parts of the country are not perennial. In the small-scale horticultural sector, irrigation becomes handy. Rainfall exhibits spatial and temporal variability. This scenario is characterized by shifts in the onset of rains, increases in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, increases in the proportion of low rainfall years, decreases in low-intensity rainfall events, and increases in the frequency and intensity of mid-season dry spells. Drought have increased in frequency and intensity. Agriculture is the main source of income for most smallholder farmers who depend on rain-fed cropping and livestock rearing. Adaptation of agriculture to climate variability and change impacts is vital for livelihood. To develop appropriate strategies and institutional responses to climate change adaptation, a clear understanding of climate change impacts on smallholder farmers at farm-level is vital.
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Germain, Daniel, Sébastien Roy und Antonio Jose Teixera Guerra. „Empirical Rainfall Thresholds for Landslide Occurrence in Serra do Mar, Angra dos Reis, Brazil“. In Landslides [Working Title]. IntechOpen, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.100244.
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In the tropical environment such as Brazil, the frequency of rainfall-induced landslides is particularly high because of the rugged terrain, heavy rainfall, increasing urbanization, and the orographic effect of mountain ranges. Since such landslides repeatedly interfere with human activities and infrastructures, improved knowledge related to spatial and temporal prediction of the phenomenon is of interest for risk management. This study is an analysis of empirical rainfall thresholds, which aims to establish local and regional scale correlations between rainfall and the triggering of landslides in Angra dos Reis in the State of Rio de Janeiro. A statistical analysis combining quantile regression and binary logistic regression was performed on 1640 and 526 landslides triggered by daily rainfall over a 6-year period in the municipality and the urban center of Angra dos Reis, in order to establish probabilistic rainfall duration thresholds and assess the role of antecedent rainfall. The results show that the frequency of landslides is highly correlated with rainfall events, and surprisingly the thresholds in dry season are lower than those in wet season. The aspect of the slopes also seems to play an important role as demonstrated by the different thresholds between the southern and northern regions. Finally, the results presented in this study provide new insight into the spatial and temporal dynamics of landslides and rainfall conditions leading to their activation in this tropical and mountainous environment.
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Wainright, John. „Climate and Climatological Variations in the Jornada Basin“. In Structure and Function of a Chihuahuan Desert Ecosystem. Oxford University Press, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195117769.003.0007.
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The purpose of this chapter is to review the climatic data for the Jornada Basin over the period for which instrumental records exist. Over this time period, up to 83 years in the case of the Jornada Experimental Range (JER), we can deduce both the long-term mean characteristics and variability on a range of different spatial and temporal scales. Short-term variability is seen in individual rainstorms. Longer-term patterns are controlled spatially by factors such as large-scale circulation patterns and basin and regional orography and temporally by the large-scale fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. Variability can have significant impacts on the biogeography of a region (Neilson 1986) or its geomorphic processes (Cooke and Reeves 1976), which may set in motion a series of feedbacks, most important those referring to desertification (Schlesinger et al. 1990; Conley et al. 1992). Understanding the frequency and magnitude of such variability is therefore fundamental in explaining the observed landscape changes in areas such as the Jornada Basin. The patterns observed for different climatic variables within the available instrumental records for the Jornada Basin are defined in a hierarchical series of temporal scales, starting with the patterns that emerge from long-term average conditions and moving to seasonal and monthly, daily, and subdaily time scales. Two further analyses are made because of their potential importance to the hydrological and ecological characteristics of the basin, namely, the occurrence of extreme rainfall events and of longer-term changes. The effects of El Niño events in controlling the rainfall over decadal time scales will be addressed in particular. Spatial variability is an additional important concern, especially when characterizing dryland areas such as the Jornada Basin, where spatial variability tends to be high. The overall climate of the basin can be defined according to the Köppen classification as being cool and arid, belonging to the midlatitude desert zone (BWk). However, interannual variability is important, and occasionally, the annual conditions are more characteristic of the semiarid steppe (BSk) zone. The higher rainfall rates in the higher altitudes of the basin are also more characteristic of semiarid conditions.
Konferenzberichte zum Thema "Rainfall events scale"
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de Araújo, Paula Andressa Alves, Cláudio Moisés Santos e. Silva, Daniele Tôrres Rodrigues und Aléxia Monteiro Valentim. „Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Events on a Sub-Daily Scale in Northeast“. In International Electronic Conference on Water Sciences. Basel Switzerland: MDPI, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ecws-7-14299.
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Ferris, Gerry, Patrick Grover und Aron Zahradka. „Real Time Rainfall Monitoring for Pipeline Geohazards“. In ASME-ARPEL 2021 International Pipeline Geotechnical Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ipg2021-63162.
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Abstract Oil and gas pipelines are subjected to multiple types of geohazards which cause pipeline failures (loss of containment); two of the most common types occur at watercourse crossings and at landslides. At watercourse crossings, the most common geohazard which causes pipeline failures is flooding during which excessive scour may result in the exposure of the buried pipeline and if the exposure results in a free spanning pipeline, then this may fail due to fatigue caused by cyclic loading from vortex-induced vibration. Fortunately the free span length and water velocity combinations that lead to failure can be defined and can be used to identify the flood discharge that should be monitored for in order to trigger actions to manage the hazard and avoid failure. Most watercourse crossings in a pipeline network are on ungauged watercourses and necessitate the use of a proxy gauged watercourse. The “proxy” gauged watercourse is used to infer whether flooding is occurring on the ungauged crossing, and the owner can take appropriate actions. Often the proxy gauged watercourse is too far away or the watercourse may not be representative of the crossing of concern (e.g. large difference in the drainage areas). Real-time rainfall data can be used in conjunction with streamflow monitoring to determine when extreme precipitation has occurred within the ungauged watercourses catchment which may result in flooding. Where pipelines cross landslide prone areas, large scale movements can be initiated, or slow on-going movement rates increased when extreme rainfall occurs. The definition of the extreme rainfall event for slope sites is the key component of providing a suitable warning of potentially dangerous conditions; shallow slides can be caused by short term events from sub-hourly to 3 day duration precipitation events whereas large deep seated (creeping) landslides can be driven by annual and intra-annual rainfall amounts. Monitoring of real time rainfall can be used to determine when extreme rainfall occurs at a landslide site. The density of in-situ weather stations collecting real-time rainfall data prevents the application along remote sections of pipeline routes and within large sections of Canada. Gridded real time rainfall from quantitative precipitation estimations which integrate a multiple data sources including in-situ, numerical weather prediction, satellite and weather radar, can be used to overcome this problem and provide warnings when pre-determined rainfall thresholds are exceeded on a site-specific basis.
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Dutta, Riya, Subhasmita Dash und Rajib Maity. „Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Extreme Rainfall Events in India and Possible Connection with the Large-scale Coupled Atmospheric-Oceanic Circulations“. In Proceedings of the 39th IAHR World Congress From Snow to Sea. Spain: International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research (IAHR), 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.3850/iahr-39wc2521711920221372.
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Sánchez-Murillo, Ricardo. „DOC transport and export in a dynamic tropical catchment“. In I Congreso Internacional de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Universidad Nacional, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.15359/cicen.1.35.
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Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) transport and export from headwater forests into freshwaters in highly dynamic tropical catchments are still understudied. Here, we present a DOC analysis (2017) in a pristine and small (~2.6 km2) tropical catchment of Costa Rica. Storm flows governed a rapid surface and lateral allochthonous DOC transport (62.2% of the annual DOC export). Cross-correlation analysis of rainfall and stream discharge indicated that DOC transport occurred on average ~1.25 hours after the rainfall maxima, with large contributions of event water, ranging from 42.4±0.3% up to 98.2±0.3% of the total discharge. Carbon export flux (annual mean=6.7±0.1 g C m-2 yr-1) was greater than values reported in subtropical and temperate catchments. Specific ultraviolet absorbance indicated a mixture of hydrophobic humic and hydrophilic non-humic matter during both baseflow and storm events. Our results highlight the rapid storm-driven DOC transport and export as well as low biogeochemical attenuation during baseflow episodes in a climate sensitive hot-spot. By understanding the key factors controlling the amount of organic carbon transported to streams in dynamic tropical landscapes, better global and catchment-scale model assessments, conservation practices, and water treatment innovations can be identified.
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Pucci, Alessandro, Hélder S. Sousa, Mario Lucio Puppio, Linda Giresini, José C. Matos und Mauro Sassu. „Method for sustainable large-scale bridges survey“. In IABSE Symposium, Guimarães 2019: Towards a Resilient Built Environment Risk and Asset Management. Zurich, Switzerland: International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2749/guimaraes.2019.1034.
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<p>In the last years, extreme rainfalls have caused many collapses of bridges. In Italy several of those were short span’s ones that failed during or after extreme events of this nature. This work presents a method for inspection survey and its results regarding a campaign on 71 bridges, located in Tuscany (Massa Carrara, Italy). This area was affected by a big flood that took place in 2014 and also two earlier ones in 2012 with only 15 days apart one from the other, leading to a huge disrupting situation for the population’s daily life and consequent economical loss. Concerning this issue, the local stakeholders showed an increasing interest for sustainable methods for monitoring the built environment, thus the results of this research have been made available for integration on the Civil Protection Emergency Plan (CLE) and can be used in a decision-making prioritization list of actions. The framework uses a Gis- based approach combined with a quick survey technique. This method balances costs of surveying with the accuracy needed in inspections, bypassing the classical procedure which requires several onsite surveys. This procedure uses only three transversal river sections for each bridge. The method also comprises a tailored survey inspection form and a user-friendly worksheet was designed to build the database, applicable for further studies. Results showed the absence of maintenance on existing structures and riverbeds, often resulting in a partially or fully bridge section obstruction, and material’s decay. The framework created in this work allowed to assess the conditions of several bridges in the studied region, to further analyse the resilience of the infrastructure system and proceed with adequate interventions.</p>
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Corti, Monica, Laura Corti, Andrea Abbate, Monica Papini und Laura Longoni. „POST-WILDFIRE TERRAIN EVOLUTION IN AN ALPINE AREA“. In 22nd SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference 2022. STEF92 Technology, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.5593/sgem2022/3.1/s12.20.
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In a climate change scenario, natural disasters as wildfires and their consequences are expected to increase. Besides the loss of vegetation, wildfires have severe effects over mountain environments, frequently affecting slope stability and eventually provoking further economic losses and casualties. The risen probability of flash flooding and debris flow is recognized to depend on a modification of the soil hydrological properties, in particular of the soil infiltration capacity, in burnt terrains. Past studies identified different trends of soil infiltration recovery after fire, depending on the site environmental characteristics and on the original soil conditions. Even though wildfires are common in the Alpine area, studies on the hydrological impact of wildfires are mainly from the US, Australia and partly from the Iberian Peninsula. This work aims to investigate the impact of a wildfire occurred in 2019 in the Southern Alps and to retrieve recovery trends for the calibration of a simple 1D hydrogeological model. The effects of the wildfire and their variations over time were evaluated on three different spatial scales: satellite imagery, field monitoring (infiltration tests) and laboratory rainfall simulations.
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LUSHAJ, herif, Anira GJONI und Enkelejda KUCAJ. „The influence of climate change on drought occurrences and the measures taken to alleviate drought in Albania“. In ISSUES OF HOUSING, PLANNING, AND RESILIENT DEVELOPMENT OF THE TERRITORY Towards Euro-Mediterranean Perspectives. POLIS PRESS, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.37199/c41000123.
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Drought is an extreme weather condition marked by prolonged periods of no precipitation and dry weather. It affects the hydrological balance, soil moisture, temperature, water supply, and river flow rates. Land degradation, biodiversity loss, and significant economic sectors are negatively impacted. Despite its small size, Albania is distinguished by its separation into 13 subzones and 4 phytoclimatic zones, which exhibit noticeable variances in terms of climate indicators and ex- treme weather occurrences. The seasonality of the yearly rainfall, which falls 80% of the time between October and April, the dry summer, and human activities that harm the environment are further factors contributing to drought in Albania. Albania is one of the nations whose dry and semi-arid regions, which make up around two-thirds of its surface, are experiencing drought and the desertification process. Even on a worldwide scale, nearly one-third of the land is degrading. When compared to the 30-year average, meteorological data from Albania suggest that climate change, the phenomenon of drought, and land desertification are increasing. Therefore, in 2020, the amount of precipitation was 14.4% less at 10 meteorological stations around the nation, and the average maximum temperatures increased by +2.8°C, over the multi-year average of 1961–1990. As a result of the escalation and disastrous effects of drought, climate change is considered a “hot” topic that has attracted the attention of governments, institutions worldwide, and international organizations. This will be done through an in-depth analysis of indicators and indices of climate, hydrological and meteorological drought, exposed economic sectors, and land. Additionally, the key findings of the reduction of environmental, ecological, and agricultural drought, adaptation to climate change in relation to drought protection for the soil, and in particular for agricultural land, will be highlighted.
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Croce, Pietro, Paolo Formichi und Filippo Landi. „Structural safety and design under climate change“. In IABSE Congress, New York, New York 2019: The Evolving Metropolis. Zurich, Switzerland: International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2749/newyork.2019.1129.
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<p>The impact of climate change on climatic actions could significantly affect, in the mid-term future, the design of new structures as well as the reliability of existing ones designed in accordance to the provisions of present and past codes. Indeed, current climatic loads are defined under the assumption of stationary climate conditions but climate is not stationary and the current accelerated rate of changes imposes to consider its effects.</p><p>Increase of greenhouse gas emissions generally induces a global increase of the average temperature, but at local scale, the consequences of this phenomenon could be much more complex and even apparently not coherent with the global trend of main climatic parameters, like for example, temperature, rainfalls, snowfalls and wind velocity.</p><p>In the paper, a general methodology is presented, aiming to evaluate the impact of climate change on structural design, as the result of variations of characteristic values of the most relevant climatic actions over time. The proposed procedure is based on the analysis of an ensemble of climate projections provided according a medium and a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Factor of change for extreme value distribution’s parameters and return values are thus estimated in subsequent time windows providing guidance for adaptation of the current definition of structural loads.</p><p>The methodology is illustrated together with the outcomes obtained for snow, wind and thermal actions in Italy. Finally, starting from the estimated changes in extreme value parameters, the influence on the long-term structural reliability can be investigated comparing the resulting time dependent reliability with the reference reliability levels adopted in modern Structural codes.</p>
Berichte der Organisationen zum Thema "Rainfall events scale"
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Agassi, Menahem, Michael J. Singer, Eyal Ben-Dor, Naftaly Goldshleger, Donald Rundquist, Dan Blumberg und Yoram Benyamini. Developing Remote Sensing Based-Techniques for the Evaluation of Soil Infiltration Rate and Surface Roughness. United States Department of Agriculture, November 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2001.7586479.bard.
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The objective of this one-year project was to show whether a significant correlation can be established between the decreasing infiltration rate of the soil, during simulated rainstorm, and a following increase in the reflectance of the crusting soil. The project was supposed to be conducted under laboratory conditions, using at least three types of soils from each country. The general goal of this work was to develop a method for measuring the soil infiltration rate in-situ, solely from the reflectance readings, using a spectrometer. Loss of rain and irrigation water from cultivated fields is a matter of great concern, especially in arid, semi-arid regions, e.g. much of Israel and vast area in US, where water is a limiting factor for crop production. A major reason for runoff of rain and overhead irrigation water is the structural crust that is generated over a bare soils surface during rainfall or overhead irrigation events and reduces its infiltration rate (IR), considerably. IR data is essential for predicting the amount of percolating rainwater and runoff. Available information on in situ infiltration rate and crust strength is necessary for the farmers to consider: when it is necessary to cultivate for breaking the soil crust, crust strength and seedlings emergence, precision farming, etc. To date, soil IR is measured in the laboratory and in small-scale field plots, using rainfall simulators. This method is tedious and consumes considerable resources. Therefore, an available, non-destructive-in situ methods for soil IR and soil crusting levels evaluations, are essential for the verification of infiltration and runoff models and the evaluation of the amount of available water in the soil. In this research, soil samples from the US and Israel were subjected to simulated rainstorms of increasing levels of cumulative energies, during which IR (crusting levels) were measured. The soils from the US were studied simultaneously in the US and in Israel in order to compare the effect of the methodology on the results. The soil surface reflectance was remotely measured, using laboratory and portable spectrometers in the VIS-NIR and SWIR spectral region (0.4-2.5mm). A correlation coefficient spectra in which the wavelength, consisting of the higher correlation, was selected to hold the highest linear correlation between the spectroscopy and the infiltration rate. There does not appear to be a single wavelength that will be best for all soils. The results with the six soils in both countries indeed showed that there is a significant correlation between the infiltration rate of crusted soils and their reflectance values. Regarding the wavelength with the highest correlation for each soil, it is likely that either a combined analysis with more then one wavelength or several "best" wavelengths will be found that will provide useful data on soil surface condition and infiltration rate. The product of this work will serve as a model for predicting infiltration rate and crusting levels solely from the reflectance readings. Developing the aforementioned methodologies will allow increased utilization of rain and irrigation water, reduced runoff, floods and soil erosion hazards, reduced seedlings emergence problems and increased plants stand and yields.