Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Privacy expectations“

This position paper observes how different technical and normative conceptions of privacy have evolved in parallel and describes the practical challenges that these divergent approaches pose. Notably, past technologies relied on intuitive, heuristic understandings of privacy that have since been shown not to satisfy expectations for privacy protection. With computations ubiquitously integrated in almost every aspect of our lives, it is increasingly important to ensure that privacy technologies provide protection that is in line with relevant social norms and normative expectations. Similarly, it is also important to examine social norms and normative expectations with respect to the evolving scientific study of privacy. To this end, we argue for a rigorous analysis of the mapping from normative to technical concepts of privacy and vice versa. We review the landscape of normative and technical definitions of privacy and discuss specific examples of gaps between definitions that are relevant in the context of privacy in statistical computation. We then identify opportunities for overcoming their differences in the design of new approaches to protecting privacy in accordance with both technical and normative standards. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The growing ubiquity of algorithms in society: implications, impacts and innovations’.

Purpose This paper aims to propose an information privacy culture index framework (IPCIF) with a validated information privacy culture index instrument (IPCII) to measure information privacy culture across nations. The framework is based on consumers’ privacy expectations, their actual experiences when organisations process their personal information and their general privacy concerns. Design/methodology/approach A survey method was deployed to collect data in South Africa – the first participating country in the study – to start building a global information privacy culture index (IPCI) and to validate the questionnaire. Findings The IPCI revealed that there seems to be a disconnect between what consumers expect in terms of privacy and the way in which organisations are honouring (or failing to honour) those expectations, which results in a breach of trust and the social contract being violated. Practical implications Governments, information regulators and organisations can leverage the results of the privacy culture index to implement corrective actions and controls aimed at addressing the gaps identified from a consumer and compliance perspective. The validated IPCII can be used by both academia and industry to measure the information privacy culture of an institution, organisation or country to identify what to improve to address consumer privacy expectations and concerns. Originality/value The IPCIF and validated IPCII are the first tools that combine the concepts of consumer expectations and their confidence levels in whether organisations are meeting their privacy expectations, which are in line with the fair information practice principles and the privacy guidelines of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, to determine gaps and define improvement plans.

ABSTRACT:The oft-cited privacy paradox is the perceived disconnect between individuals’ stated privacy expectations, as captured in surveys, and consumer market behavior in going online: individuals purport to value privacy yet still disclose information to firms. The goal of this paper is to empirically examine the conceptualization of privacy postdisclosure assumed in the privacy paradox. Contrary to the privacy paradox, the results here suggest consumers retain strong privacy expectations even after disclosing information. Privacy violations are valued akin to security violations in creating distrust in firms and in consumer (un)willingness to engage with firms. This paper broadens the scope of corporate responsibility to suggest firms have a positive obligation to identify reasonable expectations of privacy of consumers. In addition, research perpetuating the privacy paradox, through the mistaken framing of disclosure as proof of anti-privacy behavior, gives license to firms to act contrary to the interests of consumers.

Communication privacy management (CPM) theory posits that culturally specific understandings of privacy guide how people manage private information in everyday conversations. We use the context of miscarriage to demonstrate how societal-level expectations about (in)appropriate topics of talk converge with micro-level decisions about privacy rules and privacy boundary management. More specifically, we explore how people’s perceptions of broad social rules about the topic of miscarriage influence their disclosure decisions. Based on interviews with 20 couples who have experienced pregnancy loss, we examined how couples described miscarriage as a topic that is bound by societal-level expectations about whether and how this subject should be discussed in interpersonal conversations. Participants reflected on their perceptions of societal-level privacy rules for protecting information about their miscarriage experiences and described how these rules affected their own privacy management decisions. We discuss these findings in terms of CPM’s theoretical tools for linking macro-level discourses to everyday talk.

This study tested a conceptual model of adolescents’ feelings of privacy invasion derived from CPM. Specifically, goals were to describe adolescents’ expectations of privacy, to describe how often adolescents are exposed to behaviors that threaten privacy, and to test privacy beliefs, potentially invasive behaviors, and having things to hide as predictors of individual differences in feelings of privacy invasion. Furthermore, each question and hypothesis was examined across four privacy domains and four relationships to determine whether privacy functions similarly or uniquely across domains and relationships. Participants were 118 adolescents (59% female), ranging from age 15 to 18 years of age (M age = 16.4 years, SD = .78). Results indicate that adolescents expect more privacy around their personal information than they expect around domains more aligned with parental monitoring. Sharing personal information elicited the greatest feelings of privacy invasion. The present study found some support the CPM based conceptual model. Adolescents expect information contained within the boundaries to remain private and intrusions into these boundaries elicit feelings of privacy invasion. Additionally, the current study found evidence to support the alternative model that the threat of discovery also elicits feelings of privacy invasion.

There is a strong mainstream interest in the tech world for voice interaction, in parts thanks to the technological advancements in the field and the use of big data which in some cases make speech recognition on par with humans. The aim of this paper is to explore the relationship between voice interaction and privacy. Two prototypes on voice interaction of bank services were created, they had differences in feedback, correctness and need of physical interaction. Twelve participants were instructed to perform tasks like checking balance and transferring money with the prototypes. Then they were asked about their relation to privacy in the context of their previous experiences with voice interaction and the two prototypes they used. The results show that what was perceived as private and the need for privacy varied a lot between the participants. In the end a respectful and empowering design to voice interaction is proposed in which the user could customize how the application provides feedback by adding contextual sensitivity e.g. using GPS to know if you are home, or a camera to know if you are looking at the device.
Det finns ett starkt intresse inom IT-branschen för röstinteraktion, delvis tack vare de teknologiska framstegen inom området, och användandet av stora mängder data vilket i vissa fall gör röstigenkänning likställd med människor. Målet med denna rapport är att utforska förhållandet mellan röstinteraktion och personlig integritet. Två prototyper för röstinteraktion av banktjänster skapades, de hade olika återkoppling, korrekthet och behov av fysisk interaktion. Tolv deltagare instruerades att utföra uppgifter såsom att kontrollera kontobalansen och överföra pengar med hjälp av prototyperna. De svarade sedan på frågor om deras relation till personlig integritet i sammanhanget av deras tidigare upplevelser med röstinteraktion och de två prototyper de provat. Resultatet visar att vad som upplevs som privat, och behovet av personlig integritet, varierade mycket mellan deltagarna. I slutändan föreslås en respekterande och stärkande design av röstinteraktion i vilken användaren kan skräddarsy hur applikationen ger återkoppling genom att lägga till kontextuell känslighet t.ex. genom GPS för att veta om du är hemma, eller en kamera för att veta om du tittar på enheten.

This thesis examines how English law has, and has not, balanced celebrities’ legal expectations of informational and seclusional privacy against the press and media’s rights to inform and publish. Much of the litigation that developed the English laws of privacy has been celebrity-generated by those with the financial resources to seek out and utilize privacy regimes and remedies in ways not immediately available to ordinary members of the public. The media, generally, has had the resources to present the relevant counter-arguments. Privacy protection was initially afforded to celebrities by breach of confidence and copyright. While public interest and “fair dealing” defences developed within English law, there was no underlying or consistent practical element in legislative or judicial thinking to promote a balance between the competing interests of protection and interference. That practical element, the concept of proportionality, developed in the Convention case-law of the ECtHR in Strasbourg during the 1950s. It was not until the Human Rights Act 1998 (HRA) that English legislators and the UK judicial system began to reflect and apply its consequences. Arriving at proportionate results and decisions – particularly in the realms of privacy - requires both the engagement of the rights that are sought to be maintained as well as a careful balancing exercise of these rights both internally and vis-à-vis each other. Because celebrities, with their Article 8 concerns, and the media, with Article 10 arguments, seek for their causes to prevail, the ways in which legislation and litigation now resolves matters is by the “ultimate balancing test” of proportionality. Proportionality is the measure within this thesis that is constant from chapter to chapter, highlighting, respectively, where the application of proportionality and balance might have produced different results as regimes developed historically and where new developments were needed to accommodate its requirements when it was apparently absent.

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Este estudo tem como objetivo analisar se valores pessoais e tipos motivacionais apresentados por estudantes de uma universidade privada do município de Cabo Frio (RJ) são condizentes com as suas expectativas de carreira. Como principal referencial teórico, foram utilizados o Inventário de Valores Pessoais e os dez Tipos Motivacionais apregoados por Schwartz (2005). A investigação foi realizada através da aplicação de questionários com o objetivo de coletar informações sobre as expectativas de carreira dos universitários. Foram pesquisados estudantes dos dois últimos períodos de seus respectivos cursos. Fizeram parte da pesquisa alunos de graduações em Administração de Empresas e Direito, alocadas na área de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas; Sistema de Informação e Engenharia do Petróleo e Gás, pertencentes à área de Ciências Exatas; Fisioterapia e Gestão Ambiental, incluídas na área de Ciências Biológicas/Saúde. As conclusões mostraram que, em diferentes escalas, os valores pessoais e tipos motivacionais estão relacionados às expectativas de carreira dos graduandos pesquisados, independentemente da área de conhecimento em que estão inseridos. Recomenda-se, para futuras pesquisas, que seja analisado o desempenho dos recém-formados inseridos no mercado de trabalho, como forma de verificar a concretização de suas expectativas de carreira.
The aim of this study is to analyze if human values and motivational types presented by students of a private university in the city of Cabo Frio (RJ) agree with and determine the fulfilment of their career expectations. The Human Values System and the Ten Motivational Types proclaimed by Schwartz (2005) were used as the main theoretical reference. The investigation was accomplished through the use of questionnaires with the goal to collect information about the students’ career expectations. Senior students in their last year of study were investigated. Students in this research were: undergraduate students in Business Administration and Law, allocated in the area of Social Sciences Applied; Information System and Oil and Gas Engineering, which belong to Exact Sciences; Physiotherapy and Environmental Management, included in the Biological Sciences. Conclusions showed that, in different scales, human values and motivational types are related to students’ career expectations, irrespective of their knowledge area. For future researches, it is recommended that the performance of newly graduated students inserted in the job market is analyzed, as a way to verify the fulfilment of their career expectations

Facultad de Filosofía y Humanidades
Informe de seminario para optar al grado de Licenciada en Lengua y Literatura Inglesa
This work is in line with the main theme in our seminar ‘The City and the urban subject in English and American Literature’. In the course of it we have studied the first appearance of the urban subject, amazed by the new metropolitan surroundings that he finds himself in. Then comes the Fláneur who observes, sometimes as an outsider, the new bohemian life in the big cities and finally cannot find a place to fit in the crowd, or either enjoying the crowd in their loneliness. In literature, the cities are built up by the narrator; here is where detail shows its power to set full images in our minds. Cities we know as the back of our hands and like to wander to recall the past, cities we meet for the first time and would like to walk all over, and cities we knew when they were great and now we find destroyed. That we have studied concerning the city. However, this present work is almost entirely related to the urban subject and how they manage to live in the ever-growing city.

La presente investigación lleva por título, Evaluación de la calidad percibida por el usuario externo de una clínica odontológica privada, sede Huancayo. Este es un estudio cuantitativo, no experimental, del tipo descriptivo y corte transversal, cuyo objetivo fue determinar la calidad de atención percibida por el usuario externo de una clínica odontológica privada con presencia en la ciudad de Huancayo. La calidad de servicio hoy en día es un sumamente importante para las instituciones prestadoras de salud, por tanto, después de una revisión de bibliografía especializada, se optó por el uso de Servqual, para la determinación de la calidad de servicio en la Clínica Dientecito Feliz.

Parental input and participation on curricular decisions influence the educational process in private schools. Parental participation in the development and continual examination of the curriculum is essential to maintaining an educational environment that reflects the ideals and goals of all of the stakeholders. However, parents often have differing ideas from schools on what the curriculum should encompass. The problem facing private school leaders is how to negotiate the tensions resulting from conflicting parental expectations for the curriculum of the school. Literature is reviewed surrounding the main research question for this study: how do school leaders respond to the differences in expectations for curriculum between parents and private secondary schools? Areas of the literature reviewed include the purpose of education, the curriculum development process in schools and the role of educational leadership in the curriculum development process. The overall research design of this study is framed by a qualitative methodology that includes a multiple-site case study that aims to create a better understanding of the dynamics of parental influences on curriculum in private schools. Data from the Upper Schools of three private schools in a metropolitan area were collected over the period of one academic semester from a variety of sources, including interviews, observations and document analysis. The emerging themes were constructed around the current and past knowledge of informants within the context of the social interactions of the stakeholders in the three schools. Several significant findings resulted from this study, which provides a framework to understand how school leaders negotiate parental curriculum expectations. These findings include parental influence and expectations, the distinction between leadership with the curriculum versus the co-curriculum, and the factors influencing the negotiation of curriculum conflict. This inquiry is important because it creates a dialogue among the stakeholders who influence curriculum in private schools. The results of this study help school leaders understand the influences of parents on the curriculum of their schools and offer practical suggestions for private school leaders on how to negotiate the differences in expectations for curriculum between parents and private secondary schools.

The thesis will conclude by identifying issues that courts and legislatures will have to address in the coming years to adequately deliver justice in a dynamic society that is prone to powerful technological change.; Though the Internet and social media are fairly recent developments, the legal principles and issues embodied in them are well-represented in the Constitution. Take, for example, the freedom of expression enumerated in the First Amendment. Though traditionally in print, pamphlets, and film, recent developments in technology such as Facebook and blogs have become the new standard forms of communication. Like the physical mediums that arose before them, issues arise of what limits, if any, should be placed on the speech. Given the guise of anonymity, people on the Internet have less accountability in the comments they make, which has led to things ranging from passionate political speech to what is known as cyber-bullying, which is online harassment that has led people to suicide. This thesis, however, will primarily focus on the Fourth Amendment's reasonable expectation of privacy. Because the information involved with the Internet and social media is digital, it is more difficult to identify when privacy has been breached. With a paper envelope, for example, one can tell if the seal was broken and the contents were potentially disclosed to an unwanted party. Electronically, however, no such seal exists to notify the sender or recipient of a communication. Furthermore, the Government has found itself under stricter scrutiny for searches with these new developments in technology; the lack of physical intrusion poses difficult questions for courts that must decide how far a reasonable expectation of privacy goes in the social media age. The thesis will also address how private companies obtain and use individuals' information through the services they provide and the issues that arise from them. Private companies have fewer restrictions than the Government, and both perspectives are important to keep in mind when trying to understand the policy implications rapid technological growth has brought about.
B.A.
Bachelors
Health and Public Affairs
Legal Studies

The Age of Data has quickly constructed a world where secrecy is a myth and privacy is an idea clouded in insecurity and dishonesty. In this Thesis, I explore the realm of "privacy" and its different contextual meanings. Relying on various sources to expand on privacy, I will view the issue of privacy in American social, historical, governmental, and most importantly, legal contexts. I will be using modern terms such as Big Data, metadata, and "The Surveillance State" to narrow down our understanding of why privacy is important and how these terms have created an entirely different way of thinking about the world. Can our everyday data use (i.e. text messages, phone calls, internet search history) be infringed upon? If so, on what legal grounds? Traditional and modern privacy concerns are important to acknowledge here as well. Further research, backed by history, relevant literature, and modern legal rules, is especially vital to our understanding of data as a private "thing," how privacy is protected, and whether we are willing to give our privacy away. Is there an expectation of privacy in America today that embraces everything we want kept private?

Der Tagungsband beschäftigt sich mit den aus den neuen Technologien erwachsenden Anforderungen an die Archive. Er fasst mehrere Aufsätze zusammen, die sich aus unterschiedlichen Perspektiven mit diesen Herausforderungen beschäftigen. Das Eingangsreferat von Norbert Becker wertet eine Umfrage zu Erwartungen der Benutzer im Hinblick auf die modernen Medien und Informationstechnologien aus. Kerstin Arnold stellt das Projekt zur Schaffung eines Archivportals für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland vor. In zwei weiteren Beiträgen werden konkrete Digitalisierungsprojekte bzw. –strategien vorgestellt. Susanne Knoblich, Berlin, stellt einen Werkstattbericht zur Übernahme von elektronischen Unterlagen in das Landesarchiv Berlin vor. Abgerundet wird der Band durch einen Beitrag von Kerstin Orantek zu den Problemen des Datenschutzes in einer digitalisierten Welt.:Stephan Luther: Einleitung 7 Norbert Becker: Perspektiven, Benutzererwartungen und neue Aufgaben der Archive zu Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts. Ergebnisse einer Benutzerumfrage 11 Kerstin Arnold: Auf dem Weg zum Archivportal Deutschland. Die Referenzanwendung aus dem DFG-Projekt zum „Ausbau des Netzwerks SED-/FDGB-Archivgut“ 37 Marek Ďurčanský: Die tschechischen Spezialarchive und die Digitalisierung 53 Matthias Röschner: Auf dem Weg ins Internet – Digitalisierungsprojekte im Archiv 65 Susanne Knoblich: Übernahme und Archivierung elektronischer Unterlagen durch das Landesarchiv Berlin – Ein Werkstattbericht 83 Kerstin Orantek: Probleme des Datenschutzes in einer digitalisierten Welt – Neue Anforderungen für Archive? 91
The proceedings of the conference are concerned with the requirements for archives arising due to new technologies. It comprises several papers addressing these challenges from different perspectives. The opening address by Norbert Becker evaluates a survey on user expectations concerning modern media and information technologies. Kerstin Arnold describes a project to create the archive portal of the Federal Republic of Germany. In two other contributions, specific digitisation projects or strategies are discussed. Susanne Knoblich from Berlin presents a working report on the transfer of electronic documents for the National Archives of Berlin. Kerstin Orantek completes the volume with a contribution on the problem of data protection in a digital world.:Stephan Luther: Einleitung 7 Norbert Becker: Perspektiven, Benutzererwartungen und neue Aufgaben der Archive zu Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts. Ergebnisse einer Benutzerumfrage 11 Kerstin Arnold: Auf dem Weg zum Archivportal Deutschland. Die Referenzanwendung aus dem DFG-Projekt zum „Ausbau des Netzwerks SED-/FDGB-Archivgut“ 37 Marek Ďurčanský: Die tschechischen Spezialarchive und die Digitalisierung 53 Matthias Röschner: Auf dem Weg ins Internet – Digitalisierungsprojekte im Archiv 65 Susanne Knoblich: Übernahme und Archivierung elektronischer Unterlagen durch das Landesarchiv Berlin – Ein Werkstattbericht 83 Kerstin Orantek: Probleme des Datenschutzes in einer digitalisierten Welt – Neue Anforderungen für Archive? 91

As a result of the refugee reception crisis in 2015 the advocacy for increasing resettlement numbers in the overall refugee protection framework has gained momentum, as has research on resettlement to the EU. While the UNHCR purports resettlement as a durable solution for the international protection of refugees, resettlement programmes to the European Union are seen as a pillar of the external dimension of the EU’s asylum and migration policies and management. This paper presents and discusses the literature regarding the value transmissions taking place within these programmes. It reviews literature on the European resettlement process – ranging from the selection of refugees to be resettled, the information and training they receive prior to travelling to their new country of residence, their reception upon arrival, their placement and dispersal in the receiving state, as well as programs of private and community sponsorship. The literature shows that even if resettlement can be considered an external dimension of European migration policy, this process does not end at the border. Rather, resettlement entails particular forms of reception, placement and dispersal as well as integration practices that refugees are confronted with once they arrive in their resettlement country. These practices should thus be understood in the context of the resettlement regime as a whole. In this paper we map out where and how values (here understood as ideas about how something should be) and norms (expectations or rules that are socially enforced) are transmitted within this regime. ‘Value transmission’ is here understood in a broad sense, taking into account the values that are directly transmitted through information and education programmes, as well as those informing practices and actors’ decisions. Identifying how norms and values figure in the resettlement regime aid us in further understanding decision making processes, policy making, and the on-the-ground work of practitioners that influence refugees’ lives. An important finding in this literature review is that vulnerability is a central notion in international refugee protection, and even more so in resettlement. Ideas and practices regarding vulnerability are, throughout the resettlement regime, in continuous tension with those of security, integration, and of refugees’ own agency. The literature review and our discussion serve as a point of departure for developing further investigations into the external dimension of value transmission, which in turn can add insights into the role of norms and values in the making and un-making of (external) boundaries/borders.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Why research Palaeolithic and Mesolithic Scotland? Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology sheds light on the first colonisation and subsequent early inhabitation of Scotland. It is a growing and exciting field where increasing Scottish evidence has been given wider significance in the context of European prehistory. It extends over a long period, which saw great changes, including substantial environmental transformations, and the impact of, and societal response to, climate change. The period as a whole provides the foundation for the human occupation of Scotland and is crucial for understanding prehistoric society, both for Scotland and across North-West Europe. Within the Palaeolithic and Mesolithic periods there are considerable opportunities for pioneering research. Individual projects can still have a substantial impact and there remain opportunities for pioneering discoveries including cemeteries, domestic and other structures, stratified sites, and for exploring the huge evidential potential of water-logged and underwater sites. Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology also stimulates and draws upon exciting multi-disciplinary collaborations. Panel Task and Remit The panel remit was to review critically the current state of knowledge and consider promising areas of future research into the earliest prehistory of Scotland. This was undertaken with a view to improved understanding of all aspects of the colonization and inhabitation of the country by peoples practising a wholly hunter-fisher-gatherer way of life prior to the advent of farming. In so doing, it was recognised as particularly important that both environmental data (including vegetation, fauna, sea level, and landscape work) and cultural change during this period be evaluated. The resultant report, outlines the different areas of research in which archaeologists interested in early prehistory work, and highlights the research topics to which they aspire. The report is structured by theme: history of investigation; reconstruction of the environment; the nature of the archaeological record; methodologies for recreating the past; and finally, the lifestyles of past people – the latter representing both a statement of current knowledge and the ultimate aim for archaeologists; the goal of all the former sections. The document is reinforced by material on-line which provides further detail and resources. The Palaeolithic and Mesolithic panel report of ScARF is intended as a resource to be utilised, built upon, and kept updated, hopefully by those it has helped inspire and inform as well as those who follow in their footsteps. Future Research The main recommendations of the panel report can be summarized under four key headings:  Visibility: Due to the considerable length of time over which sites were formed, and the predominant mobility of the population, early prehistoric remains are to be found right across the landscape, although they often survive as ephemeral traces and in low densities. Therefore, all archaeological work should take into account the expectation of Palaeolithic and Mesolithic ScARF Panel Report iv encountering early prehistoric remains. This applies equally to both commercial and research archaeology, and to amateur activity which often makes the initial discovery. This should not be seen as an obstacle, but as a benefit, and not finding such remains should be cause for question. There is no doubt that important evidence of these periods remains unrecognised in private, public, and commercial collections and there is a strong need for backlog evaluation, proper curation and analysis. The inadequate representation of Palaeolithic and Mesolithic information in existing national and local databases must be addressed.  Collaboration: Multi-disciplinary, collaborative, and cross- sector approaches must be encouraged – site prospection, prediction, recognition, and contextualisation are key areas to this end. Reconstructing past environments and their chronological frameworks, and exploring submerged and buried landscapes offer existing examples of fruitful, cross-disciplinary work. Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology has an important place within Quaternary science and the potential for deeply buried remains means that geoarchaeology should have a prominent role.  Innovation: Research-led projects are currently making a substantial impact across all aspects of Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology; a funding policy that acknowledges risk and promotes the innovation that these periods demand should be encouraged. The exploration of lesser known areas, work on different types of site, new approaches to artefacts, and the application of novel methodologies should all be promoted when engaging with the challenges of early prehistory.  Tackling the ‘big questions’: Archaeologists should engage with the big questions of earliest prehistory in Scotland, including the colonisation of new land, how lifestyles in past societies were organized, the effects of and the responses to environmental change, and the transitions to new modes of life. This should be done through a holistic view of the available data, encompassing all the complexities of interpretation and developing competing and testable models. Scottish data can be used to address many of the currently topical research topics in archaeology, and will provide a springboard to a better understanding of early prehistoric life in Scotland and beyond.