Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Prince Daniel“

The influence of Grand Princess Euphrosyne (second wife of Prince Roman Mstislavovitch) explains the appearance among the Galician-Volhynian princes of Christian names which were unusual and unique for the Rurikides. This is the name Daniel, which was later included into the name list of the Moscow princes. This name spread among the princes due to the expansion of the cult of St Daniel the Stylite and the rising interest in the attributes of Stylitism. This can be seen in sphragistics and in the numerous architectural monuments of Galician-Volhynian Rus' of the 13th–early 14th century. Thanks to the family links between the Galician-Volhynian and the Vladimir-Suzdal princes, this cult spread in the North-Eastern Rus' and later to Moscow. The fact that Euphrosyne of Galicia was the daughter of Basileus Isaak II explains the unexpected rise of interest in Stylitism among the princes of Rus' and their milieu. According to Niketas Choniates, Emperor Isaak II especially sympathized with the Stylites and the ascetics and patronized them. Thus he astonished his contemporaries, since the Stylites had lost the influence over the emperors that they had exerted at the time of iconoclasm. The Byzantine hagiography concerning Sts. Daniel the Stylite and Leo the Great Tsar explains the connection between the names of Daniel and Leo among the descendants of Roman Mstislavich. Daniel the Stylite was the spiritual father and the main adviser of Emperor Leo I. Apparently this relationship was reflected in the names of the father and the son, the Galician-Volhynian princes Daniel Romanovich and Lev Danilovich.

The Old Greek text of Daniel chapter 8 exhibits many important differences compared to the Masoretic Text more familiar to most readers. Instead of a little horn who successfully challenges heaven, with a striking absence of divine intervention, the Old Greek tells of a strong horn who is thrown down by the heavenly powers and of a prince of the host who rescues the captives. This article attempts to give a coherent reading of the chapter in the Old Greek to bring out the quite different storyline and message of the Old Greek compared to the Masoretic Text.

London composers competed for a music prize in 1701, setting William Congreve's libretto on the judgment of Paris, a beauty contest among Juno, Pallas and Venus. Paris, contest judge, exiled prince and amorous shepherd, prefers Venus, placing love above Juno's promised empire and Pallas's martial success. This essay reveals the general political meanings of the judgment of Paris myth, shows how the tale had been used to critique Charles II and James II, examines the political beliefs of the sponsors and librettist, and demonstrates how music by John Eccles, Daniel Purcell and John Weldon supported the politics of Congreve's libretto.

In 1633 the armies of Wallenstein and the united armies of Saxony, Brandenburg and Sweden met in front of the city of Schweidnitz. Instead of fighting a battle, a truce was agreed on August 22. On this day, one of the Protestants’ hopes, Prince Ulrich of Denmark, fell victim to an attack. And in the enclosed city hunger and plague raged for weeks. How these two events were treated or even ignored in contemporary newsletters, and how poets interpreted the events, is presented here. Analyzed texts stem from Daniel Czepko and the Lutheran preacher Friedrich Scholtz, who wrote an epic poem in honor of Schweidnitz.

Susan Rogers has lived many musical lives. As a faculty member at Berklee College of Music, she directs the Berklee Music Cognition and Cognition Laboratory, expanding her research in auditory memory, which she began during her doctoral studies with Daniel Levitin at McGill University. She also teaches analogue studio production, drawing on two decades of experience in recording studios. She is especially well known for her years working as Prince's staff engineer (1983–87), a period in which she not only encountered Prince's own unique uses of tape, but also created his now-infamous tape vault. In many ways, the immediate impetus for this interview was Prince's untimely passing on 21 April 2016. In previous interviews, Rogers had already emerged as a lucid commentator on Prince's work first-hand, but that context adds a certain emotional heft to this interview, conducted one month after the pop music star's death.

Tintagel Castle (at NGR SS 0589) has been strangely absent from the pages of ANTIQUITY. O.G.S. Crawford missed seeing it during his Cornish trips in the 1920s. Glyn Daniel was there only in October 1986, his last visit to Cornwall, when the place was also inspected by HRH Prince Charles – apparently the first Duke or Earl of Cornwall to set foot on the Island since Richard (1209–72; the younger brother of Henry III), who built the Castle and was crowned King of the Romans at Aachen in 1257. If Tintagel shares with Maiden Castle the fate of being among the most frequently excavated of all the Duchy of Cornwall's monuments, it stands alone in being at once the most picturesque and the most enigmatic.

AbstractThe article deals with the historical imagination in the burgher's milieu in the late Renaissance Polish kingdom. The main aim of the article is the investigation of the changes that occurred in the perception of the remote past. The article focuses on the mechanisms of a usable past construction. In 1578, in order to obtain equal economic rights with the dominant Catholic burghers – mostly of German origin – in Lemberg, local Armenians stated that their ancestors were invited by the Galician prince Daniel and were then settled by his son Lev/Leon (1264-1301) in Lviv at the time of the city's foundation. In 1597, in their complaint, Catholics allowed that the statement of the invitation of the Armenian ancestors was a real fact but accused "Armenian warriors" for participating in the hostile incursions led by Prince Daniel or Lev together with the Tatars in the 1250s-1280s against Poland. In this way, the magistrate won the trial in 1600. I argue that for their pseudo-historical argument Catholic patricians creatively reinterpreted some passages from Marcin Cromer's book "On the origins and deeds of the Poles" (1555, 1558, 1562, 1568, 1589). Then, Armenians changed their tactics and stated in 1631 that their noble ancestors took an active part in the wars between Poland and Teutonic Order in late fourteenth – early fifteenth centuries. Thus Armenians converted their ancestors into good patriots of Poland when the Germans were the main enemies. During the trials townspeople perceived changes in their past. It also reflects a level of historical reading in Polish history and the emergence of the Battle of Grunwald battle as part of a Polish national myth. Thus Renaissance book-printing and book-collecting directly influenced the burgher's historical imagination and their judicial argument. City elites "privatized" a book, which had been sacral property of Church, and made it their tool to use for their practical needs. They also privatized and instrumentalized the based-on-books past. The arguments used by both sides during their conflict correlated with the urban elites' aspirations to acquire noble status. It also reflects the process of transmission of high culture models – Sarmatian Renaissance – to the lower estates of the Kingdom.

One of the least-explored aspects of the biography of the Ruthenian Prince Rostyslav Mykhailovych, a maternal nephew of King Daniel Romanovych of Rus’, is his court in a new homeland, the Kingdom of Hungary, between 1242/43 and 1262/64. It is known from various sources that he had numerous supporters among the secular and clerical nobility not only in Hungary but also in the lands of Galicia, Chernihiv, and Bolokhov. To date, however, too little information has been obtained from historical records containing clear mention of individuals who threw in their lot with the runaway prince in the lands of King Bela IV, especially after the defeat at Yaroslav on August 17, 1245. Having verified chronicles and Hungarian charters, the author concludes that the family of Rostyslav Mykhailovych and Princess Anna might well have been related to Lev and his sons, Fedir and Stephan, who were lords of Borod Land near Mukachevo in Bereg County. These people, who must have been descended from the nobility of Chernihiv or Galicia, succeeded one another in an effort to put Prince Rostyslav himself or his second cousin Iziaslav Volodymyrovych on the Galician throne throughout the 1240s and 1250s, all to no avail. What is important is that such attempts were always timed to coincide with the Mongol threat to the lands of the Romanids, which provided the claimants to the Galician throne with additional (albeit missed) chances of success. Their loyalty to the son-in-law of the Hungarian king was rewarded by the latter’s daughter Anna (terminus ante quem 1264); she granted them lands, which were afterwards in the successive possession of the last members of the Arpad dynasty on the Hungarian throne as well as the new kings from the Anjou dynasty. Borod Land remained in the family’s possession at least until the second half of the 14th century.

Journal of Education and Training Studies (JETS) would like to thank the following reviewers for reviewing manuscripts from April 1, 2014, to September 30, 2014. Their comments and suggestions were of great help to the authors in improving the quality of their papers. Many authors, regardless of whether JETS publishes their work, appreciate the helpful feedback provided by the reviewers. Redfame Publishing appreciates the following reviewers’ rigorous and conscientious efforts for this journal. Each of the reviewers listed below returned at least one review during this period. Ahmet KARA Ardi Marwan Barbara Hill Betsy L. Diegel Charlotte Alverson Chris Prince Udochukwu Njoku Clara Vasconcelos Dalya Abdulla Fátima Pereira Greg Rickwood Hassan Shaaban Ian Menter Intakhab A. Khan Jacqueline Onchwari Jayaluxmi Naidoo Jeyavel Sundaramoorthy Julie Ernst Kelly Amanda Train Leann M Stadtlander Marieke van der Schaaf Michael Baron Nemer Frayha Richard Beresford Richard Penny Ryan Daniel Semiyu Adejare Aderibigbe Ugo Pace

Aim.C. Peter Wagner is a well-known missiologist. In the late twentieth century Wagner became interested in the means by which the devil, as the enemy of God, obstructs the spread of the Gospel. Based on his reading of Daniel 10:13 [20-21], a passage referring to the prince of Persia, he concluded that the earth is ruled by Satan’s angels, whom he terms “territorial spirits.” The same chapter mentions other supernatural beings, Michael, one of the chief princes and the prince of Greece. In Wagner’s understanding Scripture reveals the existence of good and evil spirits having authority or control over specific geographical regions. Further, Wagner believed he had discovered why evangelism is ineffective in some locations - territorial spirits blind the minds of the populace and need to be bound spiritually to remove hindrances to the gospel’s reception. Wagner devised a prayer methodology called Strategic Level Spiritual Warfare (SLSW), to accelerate world evangelisation by strategically targeting designated cities or locations with aggressive prayer to disarm the spiritual powers of wickedness. SLSW depends for effectiveness on the associated practice of spiritual mapping,” entailing foundational research into an area’s historical and spiritual background preceding the prayer programme. Wagner believes SLSW to be both divinely revealed and empirically verifiable. The SLSW methodology spread with startling rapidity to many sectors of Christianity. SLSW became associated with Pentecostalism, and is now mistakenly assumed to be a Pentecostal teaching. This thesis aims to show this is inaccurate. Scope. C. Peter Wagner, an Evangelical, is associated with Third Wave groups who deliberately distance themselves from the Pentecostal label. Classical Pentecostalism is differentiated historically from the later Charismatic Renewal Movement. Third Wave groups are a separate more recent spiritual movement, sometimes known as neo-charismatics. Neither Wagner’s theological nor ecclesial location is Pentecostal, but this fact has not helped negate the mistaken assumption that his teaching originated within Pentecostalism. In order to demonstrate the difference between Wagner’s demonology and that of Pentecostalism, their respective interpretive methods need to be compared. This task was approached firstly by showing what comprises a Classical Pentecostal hermeneutic. Three distinctive principles were identified for a conventional Pentecostal reading of Scripture, namely: (1) the Protestant Reformation principle of Sola Scriptura, (2) a pneumatic approach to interpreting Scripture and (3) biblical revelation, not self-revelation, in the community of faith. In the past, Pentecostals depended on academic writings stemming from within Evangelicalism. This was a dependence of convenience, since historically Pentecostalism had no systematic theology, nor until comparatively recently a critically active academia. The disadvantage of this borrowing has been that Pentecostals have been obliged to filter out anti-Pentecostal bias evident in much Evangelical literature. The text Daniel 10:13 was then exegeted using these principles. This narrow focus is based on Wagner’s use of this text as the foundation of his demonology. Using a combined theological and literary approach, stances on reading the book of Daniel in general and Daniel 10:13 in particular were discussed. The relaxation of tensions between the factions which divided biblical scholarship for much of the twentieth century has allowed some cross-fertilization of ideas and methods, without reducing the ideological chasm separating the camps. The history of the text was recognised but meaning was sought more particularly from the form of the extant text. The results were tested against the principles of Pentecostal hermeneutics. Finally, Wagner’s writings on SLSW were appraised. His hermeneutical method was compared with the Pentecostal hermeneutical principles, the Pentecostal reading prepared from the exegesis, and the demonology of two Classical Pentecostal writers. Discussion of SLSW was confined to Wagner as the initiator of the concept. Wagner’s specific contribution has been in relating a hypothetical demonic hierarchy according to their perceived function (not simply the degree of power they may possess). He is well aware that his theory stands or falls on the issue of whether demonic spirits can legitimately be seen as occupying territories. Conclusions. Whilst some aspects of Wagner’s demonology and hermeneutic are held in common with that of Pentecostalism, the mistaken identification of SLSW as Pentecostal has led to confusion. Notwithstanding Wagner’s high view of Scripture and enthusiasm for evangelism, the hermeneutic employed in his interpretation of Dan 10:13 is not consistent with that of Classical Pentecostalism. The conclusion reached was that C. Peter Wagner’s teaching on SLSW should not be labelled Pentecostal.

The main purpose of this study of a pearl and cameo diadem, given by Napoleon to his first wife Josephine in 1809, is to follow its representation in portraiture from Paris in 1812 to Stockholm in 2010, and explore how the iconography develops during these 200 years. From the earlier years, the diadem is found only in miniatures, then after coming to the new royal family in Sweden, the Bernadottes, it is given a role of an heirloom representing history and families in grand paintings, arriving to the present well-known wedding hairpiece, covered by modern media, where the diadem is more of a crown than the open, forehead-covering piece of fashion jewellery it was during the Napoleonic era in France. The portraits from 1812, 1814, 1836, 1837, 1877, 1976, 2000/2003 and 2010 also portray a development of the female role model of its time. Just like the hair piece attains an iconography which comprises not only the highest dress codes but also a possibility of status transformation for the people involved in ceremony, the role of the country’s First Lady is about to change into a higher, more egalitarian position of present days.

Focussing on the double meaning of the concept of »movement« as both physical and emotional movement within the interdisciplinary frame of literary and dance studies, this paper examines the complex connections between the representation of emotional and dance movements in Jane Austen’s novel ‚Pride and Prejudice‘ (1813) by tracing an aesthetics of restraint, reticence and control (in compliance with the code of conduct promoted by contemporary dance treatises) in Austen’s writing: in the depiction of emotions in her text, in (the delineation of) her characters’ physical and emotional behaviour, and in the almost complete absence of references to dance per se and to dancemovements in her dance scenes. Dance scenarios are mainly used to provide implicit kinetic and cultural information for the representation of her characters’ sentiments.

Abstract The development of digital media technologies like the MP3 file and the smartphone has changed the status of the audiobook from being a by-product of the printed book to being a mass medium in its own right. This chapter takes a context and user perspective on audiobooks and asks the fundamental question: to what extent can one say that one ‘reads’ an audiobook? Based on the Danish author Helle Helle’s novel Ned til hundene (Down to the Dogs, 2008), the authors discuss how the audiobook experience as a whole can be analysed regarding ‘technological framing’, ‘reading situations’ and ‘the performing voice’. They also investigate audiobook reading in relation to the experience of time and depth.

Among the manuscripts in Italian kept in the National Library of Vienna, a comedy in prose of Spanish derivation has recently come to light, hitherto neglected by theatrological and Hispanistic studies. The title page of the booklet declares at the beginning the nature of the content with a laconic "La forza del naturale translated from Spanish », which identifies the text as a translation and revision of La fuerza del natural by Agustín Moreto and Jerónimo de Cáncer (perhaps with the collaboration of Juan de Matos Fragoso), probably composed between 1644 and 1654 and printed for the first time in 1661. Where and when was written the text passed down by the Viennese witness? Was it imported from Italy or written beyond the Alps? Finally, is it possible to trace the exact hypotext starting from the twenty sources known today of the Spanish comedy? This study answers these questions and sheds light on the adaptation techniques that emerged from the comparison between the Italian text and its Spanish hypotext, also by taking into account the elements relating to music distributed throughout the comedy: dances, singing and musical instruments on stage.

The indignant tears of a child command attention. Daniel, aged eight, has just learned about the Brazilian rain forest and it has moved him to his first expression of political outrage. It is directed at me, not as his father, but as representative of the generation of adults who are destroying something precious before he reaches the age at which he can stop us. Through sobs and rage he shouts, “Tell the president!” Having seen me on television, Daniel has a somewhat inflated impression of my influence. Eight-year-olds are not, on the whole, always repositories of good sense, and Daniel is no exception. But by chance his anger is right on target: son and father are ethically aligned in the battleground of natural assets. First, the left flank. I agree with environmentalists that nature is special: at some level most of us recognize that. But why is it special? Mainstream environmentalists, such as Stewart Brand, offer one answer. Nature is especially vulnerable and that matters because, being dependent upon it, mankind is thereby vulnerable. But as Brand argues, many environmentalists are carrying ideological baggage that needs to be discarded. For romantic environmentalists nature is incommensurate with the mundane business of the economy: it is in some way ethically prior. Echoing Baron d’Holbach’s diagnosis of modern angst, they see industrial capitalism as having divorced us from the natural world which it is rapidly destroying. You can sense their discomfort with modern industrial society in the language that they use, replete with words such as “organic” and “holistic.” For a recent variation on the theme of Holbach, watch Prince Charles delivering the BBC’s 2009 distinguished Dimbleby Lecture. Perhaps man needs to return to a simpler, nonindustrial lifestyle. Prince Charles produces organic food, and he has created a village, Poundsbury, in the style of the eighteenth century—the last age prior to industrialization. At the extreme end of romantic environmentalism the diagnosis is more radical: mankind itself has become the enemy of what is truly good. Reflecting these sentiments, there is now a considerable cult that relishes the prospect of the extinction of mankind.

Princess Marya was not in Moscow and out of danger as Prince Andrei supposed. After the return of Alpatych from Smolensk the old prince suddenly seemed to awake as from a dream. He ordered the militiamen to be called up from the villages and armed,...

Water lubricated bearings are often installed on new and modernized ships. The main reasons are: unit simplicity, no danger of pollution and low price. One of the main problems connected with this the bearings of this kind is defining maximum hydrodynamic film capacity. Due to very thin hydrodynamic film and significant bearing bush deformation, the EHL model should be used for calculations. Experimental research conducted in the past was carried out on a single bearing test rig [1, 2, 3]. Unfortunately that test rig has some disadvantages. Its flexible support gives possibility of shaft misalignment for instance in case of asymmetric hydrodynamic pressure film in the bearing. The new test rig, presented in this paper gives wide research possibilities and working conditions are very similar to those on a real ship.

The use of digital teaching-learning methods and technologies in the didactic activity contributes to the improvement of the quality of the instructive-educational process, having an active-participatory character and a real active-formative value on the student's personality. In the socio-cultural tradition, ICT is defined as a means of mediation for knowledge, and from a dialogical perspective, it is seen as a means of opening, deepening and broadening the aspirations of dialogue. We must not forget that learning does not only involve the accumulation of knowledge, but growth, enrichment, evolution. Some rules can be stated for the successful integration of ICT in teaching. First of all, we must be sure that we have control over the material, both in terms of content and format, even if you are supported by an ICT specialist. Then it is necessary to have a plan on paper, separate from the material on digital media, the purpose and form of the presentation should not be very clear. Above all, the focus must be on the student and his learning needs. The biggest danger in any teaching-learning project that includes ICT and to be more focused on technology / creativity, not on the student-receiver and his learning needs.

The article presents an analysis of mental regulators of fly-in-fly-out personnel in diamond mining in the Far North. The study involved 70 fly-in-fly-out workers operating in the diamond mining in Far North. In our study, we relied on the concept of E. A. Klimov, who distinguished three groups of mental regulators of labor: representation of labor object, representation of labor subject, subject-object and subject-subject relations. Research methods are psychophysiological and psychological testing aimed at the diagnosis of mental regulators of labor, as well as questionnaires and projective methods for a qualitative study of mental regulators of labor. We have developed a questionnaire, which included such parameters as the assessment of comfort/discomfort of climatic and geographical, industrial and social conditions; assessment of the degree of danger of various professional situations that may arise during a fly-in; self-assessment of oneself as a professional, one’s professional skills, knowledge and adherence to safety precautions, personal qualities, job satisfaction, “price” of activity. We also developed a method of unfinished sentences. We conducted a content analysis of the results of the method of unfinished sentences, where we identified categories and subcategories related to the representation of labor object, representation of labor subject, subject-object and subject-subject relations. Statistical processing was carried out using multidimensional methods. As a result of the study, the peculiarities of the mental regulators of labor of fly-in-fly-out workers in diamond mining were identified, which must be taken into account when developing more targeted programs for supporting fly-in-fly-out work and selecting personnel in mining companies.

Thermoeconomic analyses of any thermal system design are always based on the economic objectives. However, knowledge of economic optimization may not be sufficient for decision making process, since solutions with higher thermodynamic efficiency, in spite of small increases in total costs, may result in much more interesting designs due to changes in the energy market prices or in the energy policies. In this paper a multi-objective optimization scheme is developed and applied for an Integrated Solar Combined Cycle System (ISCCS) that produces 400 MW of electricity to find solutions that simultaneously satisfy exergetic as well as economic objectives. This corresponds to search for a set of Pareto optimal solutions with respect to the two competing objectives. The optimization process is carried out by a particular class of search algorithms known as multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs). For such MOEAs, an example of decision-making is presented and a final optimal solution has been introduced. The final optimal solution that is selected in this analysis belongs to the region of Pareto Frontier with significant sensitivity to the costing parameters. However, the region with lower sensitivity to the costing parameter is not reasonable for the final optimum solution due to a weak equilibrium of Pareto Frontier in which a small changes in exergetic efficiency of plant due to variation of operating parameters may lead to the danger of increasing the cost rate of product, drastically. The analysis shows that optimization process leads to 3.2% increasing in the exergetic efficiency and 3.82% decreasing of the rate of product cost. Also optimization leads to the 2.73% reduction on the fuel exergy, 5.71% reductions in the total exergy destruction and also 3.46% and 7.32% reductions in the fuel cost rate and cost rate relating to the exergy destruction, respectively.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.