Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Price transmission“

The divergence in liquid milk price trends has raised concern about the efficiency of the milk market price transmission in Slovakia. The paper provides empirical evidence on the price transmission among the producer, wholesale, and retail markets of liquid milk in Slovakia, using the monthly data from 1993 to 2010. The empirical analysis is based on the Granger causality and the Johansen cointegration tests and on the asymmetry tests (Houck approach and error correction model approach). The causality test results show that the changes in producer prices cause changes in the wholesale and retail prices; there is a feedback from the retail to producer prices. Moreover, the direction of causality between the wholesale and retail prices flows in both directions. The long-run elasticities of price transmission are, as expected, greater than the short-run elasticities. The cointegration results indicate that the wholesale and producer prices as well as the retail and producer prices are cointegrated, but there is no evidence of cointegration between the wholesale and retail prices. The results of an asymmetric error correction models suggest that the price transmission in the Slovakian liquid milk market is asymmetric both in the short- and long-runs.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether Chinese pork reserve regulation policy fulfills its function in stabilizing market prices and simultaneously to theoretically and empirically analyze the causes leading to the failure of Chinese Government’s intervention in the market, especially in the context of asymmetric pork and hog price information transmission. Design/methodology/approach A modified Reserve-Cobweb model based on the competitive storage model developed by Muth in 1961 is employed to examine the transmission effect of hog and pork prices under the setting of Chinese Government’s pork reserve regulation policy, using the data on Chinese hog and pork prices from June 2009 to June 2015. Findings While the Reserve-Cobweb model provides theoretical insights, suggesting that the implementation of the government’s reserve policy tool to control price volatility actually leads to increased price volatility, the empirical results indicate that the policy induces hypercorrection and impels greater price volatility, especially in the context of existence of asymmetric price information transmission. Social implications The Chinese Government should reduce excessive pork price intervention and instead allow the market to play its role in the hog and pork markets. Originality/value This paper develops a modified Reserve-Cobweb model based on the price transmission effect on different links within the agricultural products supply chain, which is used to empirically validate the existence of asymmetric price information transmission between pork and hog price in China.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze price transmission in the Chinese pork market between 1994 and 2016 and examine any incidence and causes of asymmetric price transmission. Design/methodology/approach The approach uses threshold autoregressive models, asymmetric error correction models and autoregressive moving average models to examine the price transmission using monthly pig and pork prices from 1994 to 2016. Findings While a symmetric price transmission between pork and pig prices was identified for the period between June 1994 and June 2007, an asymmetric price transmission response between pork and pig prices was found for the period July 2007 to June 2016. Key factors behind the asymmetric price transmission include the chicken price and China’s provisional purchasing and stockpiling policy which is having a counter-productive impact on prices. Originality/value The paper contributes to the literature by examining price transmission in two different periods: 1994 to 2007 where prices are lower and more stable; and 2007 to 2016 where prices are higher and volatile. The paper examines the impact of production and market policies on price transmission in the Chinese pork and pig market, with several policy implications.

Price transmission of transit service is a distinct mechanism with common characters. This paper aims to provide the nature and law of price transmission of transit service. The transmission of transit service prices is defined and transmission routes are classified into vertical and horizontal. The cost-push and demand-push are to drive the price carriers along transmission routes, which produces the price transmission network. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Granger co-integration test are used to measure the cost-push price transmission. For demand-push price transmission, the demand elasticity was used to model the relationship between transit demand and prices.

Abstract A vector autoregression (VAR) model of corn, farm egg, and retail egg prices is estimated and shocked with a corn price increase. Impulse responses in egg prices, t-statistics for the impulse responses, and decompositions of forecast error variance are presented. Analyses of results provide insights on the corn/egg price transmission mechanism and on how corn price shocks pulsate through the egg-related economy.

This article aims to analyze how fuel prices impact spatial price transmission between two Chilean horticultural wholesale markets. We implement a regime-dependent VECM where price transmission parameters depend on dynamics imposed by a stationary exogenous variable (fuel price). We identified two price transmission regimes characterized by different equilibrium relationships and short-run adjustment processes. This implies that fuel prices affect price transmission elasticities and intermarket adjustment speeds. Our results show increasing marketing costs as farm to market distance grows. This impact depends on each product’s attributes. Highlights This article analyzes the effect of fuel prices on the price transmission mechanism between the most relevant Chilean horticultural wholesale markets. A regime-dependent Vector Error Correction Model where price transmission parameters depend on fuel price was implemented. Clear evidence of the role played by fuel prices for in horizontal price transmission between the wholesale markets considered in this study was found. This situation supports the idea that regardless of quantities traded in regional markets, the major effect of price adjustment is a result of the high demand, distances and market concentration of a central market. This impact depends on each product’s attributes.

In this study, we used monthly corn price and hog price data from January 2000 to June 2015 to conduct an empirical analysis based on a smooth transition regression (STR) model. The analysis confirms and explains the asymmetric transmission mechanism and process of the smooth transformation of corn prices to hog prices and measures the mechanism conversion threshold. Using the smooth transformation mechanism and its threshold as its foundations, this study breaks up continuous smooth transfer price volatility transmission effects into completely linear, not completely linear, and nonlinear mechanism states. Based on these states, the influence of corn price on hog price fluctuation is attributed to cost-push inflation, risk stabilisation effects, and the coexistence of cost-push and risk-stabilisation effects from the perspective of adaptive expectations.

The method used to test the price transmission is the ARDL models for four pork products (pork chops, bacon, ham, and ham) at various stages of the marketing chain. The asymmetry in price transmission was also investigated using the Balke et al. Model. The strongest transmission occurred between the price of the processor and the price of the raw material. The most important thing in the evolution of product prices at any stage has been delayed by one month’s reaction to changes in prices. Asymmetry was present only for variable parts and their delays, generally positive.

This article investigates the connections among the prices of biofuels, agricultural commodities and other relevant assets in Europe, the US, and Brazil. The analysis includes a comprehensive data set covering price data for 38 traded titles during the period from 2003 to 2020. We used the minimum spanning tree (MST) approach to identify price connections in a complex trading system. Our analysis of mutual price connections reveals the major defining features of world-leading biofuel markets. We provide the characteristics of the main bioethanol and biodiesel markets with respect to government policies and technical and local features of the production and consumption of particular biofuels. Despite a relatively long and dynamically evolving history of biofuels, the biofuel systems in the US, Brazil and Europe do not converge toward the same pattern of relations among fossil fuels, biofuels, agricultural commodities and financial assets.

Mestrado em Economia
O desenvolvimento económico iniciado com a revolução industrial nos finais do século XVIII, deu origem a níveis crescentes de poluição em todo o mundo. O esgotamento dos recursos naturais, preço pago por todas as amenidades criadas, levou os governos mundiais a procurarem um acordo internacional que limitasse o aumento da poluição. A primeira tentativa a, conseguir o consenso internacional foi o Protocolo de Quioto, que entrou em vigor a 16 de Fevereiro de 2005, 90 dias após a ractificação da Rússia. Nele, 54 países concordaram reduzir em 20% as emissões dos Gases com Efeito de Estufa (GEE), até 2020 e com base nas emissões verificadas em 1990. No seguimento da assinatura do Protocolo de Quioto, a União Europeia pôs em marcha o seu próprio plano de controlo das emissões de carbono, designado por “European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS)”, que, desde então, tem liderado os movimentos mundiais para o controlo do CO2. Enquadrando-se nas linhas gerais de Quioto, o EU-ETS foi implementado através duma directiva europeia com o objectivo global de fazer incorporar nos custos de produção as externalidades causadas pelas emissões poluentes e promover o investimento em tecnologias limpas, impondo limites máximos (“caps”) às emissões de cada país e instituindo esquemas específicos para a comercialização de carbono, com vista à mitigação das emissões já emitidas. Alguns anos depois do lançamento do EU-ETS, surgiram os produtos financeiros de carbono. Até ao momento os mercados de emissões ainda não foram estudados de forma consistente, duma perspectiva financeira, e são ainda necessárias novas investigações académicas sobre o tema específico da dinâmica da formação dos preços dos EUA, dos CER e de todos os restantes activos de carbono, incluindo os seus derivados. Assim sendo, e com base na informação publicada pela European Energy Exchange (EEX) ao longo de um período de mais de cinco anos, a presente dissertação procura avaliar qual dos mercados – spot ou forward – lidera o processo de formação do preço do carbono. Após a análise estatística das características dos dados, analisaremos ao pormenor os preços spot e os preços dos futuros de carbono, focando-nos nos conceitos mais importantes dos commodity markets: o convenience yield, o prémio de risco e a relação entre estas duas variáveis. Ao analisarmos os preços dos futuros de carbono duma perspectiva ex-post para verificar se existe evidência empírica para um prémio de risco positivo, concluímos que se verifica uma relação negativa entre os prémios de risco e o time-to-maturity de cada activo em análise. Ao investigarmos quais os factores que influenciam os prémios de risco e o convenience yield, obtemos resultados que sugerem que ambos são afectados negativamente pela volatilidade do preço spot, e que o preço tem um impacto positivo no convenience yield; mais, vemos que no geral os convenience yields influenciam de forma positiva os prémios de risco. Sendo variáveis os resultados obtidos em função da Fase do Protocolo Quioto a que dizem respeito os activos analisados e das respectivas maturidades, há evidência de que os direitos de emissão - e o EU-ETS em particular – parecem estar a atingir os resultados procurados no que diz respeito à protecção do ambiente, reduzindo os GEE. Há também indícios crescentes de que as incertezas quanto à viabilidade futura do EU-ETS estão a diminuir. Como suporte à definição de políticas, destacamos a evidência empírica de que as externalidades provocadas pelos GEE já estão a ser incorporadas nas estruturas de custo dos agentes económicos, nomeadamente nos preços da electricidade. Contudo, a permissão do short-selling e do banking entre períodos sucessivos do Protocolo de Quioto poderia aumentar a liquidez e melhorar a eficiência do mercado de carbono. Por último, os factores combustíveis (carvão, gás e petróleo), condições climatéricas e restrições do mercado, revestiram-se de particular interesse ao evidenciar a relação dos contratos de CO2 com a intensidade de consumo de energia, nomeadamente com os mercados electricidade (spot e de futuros).
World economic development, starting with industrial revolution in the late 18th century, has led to increasing pollution levels all over the world. Depletion of natural resources has been the result and the price paid for all the amenities and comfort bring by development. Because of this, world governments decided to try to find a consensual way to control pollution escalation. The first successful international attempt to do that is known as „The Kyoto Protocol‟ and entered into force on 16 February 2005, 90 days after its ratification by Russia. There, 54 countries put forward the overall goal of reducing GHG emissions by 20% below 1990 levels, until 2020. Following Kyoto Protocol signature, European Union has implemented its own carbon control scheme, the so-called European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), which leads the carbon control worldwide movements, since then. With the general aim of incorporating externalities caused by pollution in the production costs and to foster investment in clean technologies, the EU-ETS was launched through an EU directive. Within Kyoto framework, this new EU ETS imposed emission‟s caps over each European country and established specific carbon trading schemes to mitigate emitted pollution. Some years after the launching of EU ETS, carbon financial products have also developed all over international Stock Exchanges. So far, emission markets have not yet been consistently studied from a financial point of view and we still have a lack of academic work on the specific subject of pricing dynamics of the EUAs, CERs and other carbon assets, as well as its derivatives. So, using European Energy Exchange data with a time spam of more than five years, this thesis attempts to evaluate which market – spot or forward – leads the carbon price discovery process. We focus specifically on carbon future prices and on carbon spot prices, analysing them in a most thorough way. After analyzing the statistical properties of data, we focus on the most important concepts in the commodity markets: the convenience yield, the risk premium and the relationship between these variables, for the Exchange under analysis. We analyze carbon futures prices from an ex-post perspective to find if there is evidence for significant positive risk premia and conclude that a negative relationship between risk premia and time-to-maturity does exist. When testing for factors influencing risk premia and convenience yields, we obtain results implying that spot price volatility impact negatively both of them and that the price itself impact the convenience yield in a positive way; more, generally convenience yields influence risk premia in a positive way. Results change depending on the Kyoto Protocol Phase and on the characteristics of the assets used, but seem to confirm that uncertainties about the future of the EU ETS are disappearing. So, we can assume that allowances appear to be producing the desired results, in terms of environmental protection. For policy, empirical evidence found that there is already a pass-through of externalities caused by GHG costs into the cost structure of economic agents, influencing namely electricity prices. The EU ETS seems, though, to fulfil its goal of reducing GHG emitted. Nevertheless, allowing short-selling and banking between successive Kyoto periods could increase liquidity and improve market efficiency. Finally, the role of fuels (coal, gas and oil), weather and market constraints, was found to be of particular interest relating CO2 contracts to energy consumption intensity, namely to electricity spot and futures markets. Moreover, the recently created liberalized electricity market throughout Europe encouraged the development of environmental protection policies since newly carbon financial contracts emerged in this context.

The thesis aims to contribute to the literature on two fronts. Firstly, it aims to contribute to the literature by developing a conjectural variations model of price transmission in vertically related markets where the final product sector exercises both oligopoly power and oligopsony power. It finds that oligopoly and oligopsony power do not necessarily weaken the degree of price transmission relative to that under perfectly competitive markets although they can. The key to these outcomes is to be found in the functional forms for retail demand and farm supply. Secondly, it attempts to draw inferences about the conditions under which the prices of the farm and retail prices cointegrate by themselves based on the predictions of the existing theoretical models of vertical price transmission. It then evaluates whether these conditions are borne out empirically. To this end, it tests for the existence of a co-integrating relation between the raw input and retail prices for a sample of 11 food and energy markets in the UK using the Johansen Full-information Maximum Likelihood Procedure. It finds that a co-integrating relation is identified for only 4 out of 11 price pairs; i.e., for potato, fresh fruits, milk and oil. For all other price pairs, it is not identified unless the cointegration regression allows for sector shocks. This result seems to support our theoretical prediction that, given information provided by a price pair alone, co-integration can be observed only for products for which the cost share of the farm input is unity; i.e., for products with a constant margin. And obviously, potatoes, fresh fruits and milk are products which are sold in supermarkets as they appear in their raw form with minimum processing involved suggesting that the share of processing cost for these products is minimal.

This research investigates the determinants of asymmetric price transmission (APT) in European petroleum markets. APT is the faster response of retail prices to cost increases than to cost decreases; resulting in a welfare transfer from consumers to fuel retailers. I investigate APT at 3 different levels: the EU, the UK and at the Birmingham level. First, I examine the incidence of asymmetries in the retail markets of six major EU countries; significant asymmetries are found in all countries except from the UK. The market share data suggest that asymmetries are more important in more concentrated markets; this finding supports the collusion theory. I extend the investigation to 12 EU countries and note that APT is greater in diesel markets. The cross-country analysis suggests that vertical and horizontal concentration at least partly explains the degree of asymmetry. I provide evidence justifying scrutiny over retail markets’ pricing and structure. Second daily data unveil the presence of APT in the UK fuel markets. I use break tests to identify segments with different pricing regimes. Two main types of periods are identified: periods of rising oil price exhibit significant asymmetries whilst periods of recession do not. Our results suggest that oligopolistic coordination between retailers generate excess rents during periods of rising oil price whilst the coordination fails due to price wars when oil prices are going downwards. Finally I investigate the pricing behaviour of petroleum retailers in the Birmingham (UK) area for 2008. Whilst the market structure data reveals that the horizontal concentration is higher than the national UK average, I find no evidence of APT. In contrast, I find that retail prices are sticky upwards and downwards and that firms with market power (majors and supermarkets) adjust their prices slower than other firms.

In a competitive power market, the elastic demand for electrical energy transmission is viewed as a prime competitor of generator. Remote generators are needed for transmission to compete with local generators. The value of the transmission is based on the difference of Locational Marginal Price (LMP) of the generators across the network. To maintain the well operation of power market, LMPs which provide the price sensitivity is calculated at every bus. The revenue collected by the transmission owners is a convex quadratic function of the amount of power transmitted. This revenue provides a sound impact on investment perspective for setting the price that producers and customers should pay for the network. In this paper for a three bus system, the LMPs are calculated at the buses and a demand function for the transmission has been modeled which computes the maximum revenue for the optimal transmission capacity in the syste.

We document the existence of a quantitative relevant banks' balance-sheet transmission channel of oil price shocks by estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with banking and oil sectors. The associated amplification mechanism implies that those shocks explain a non-negligible share of US GDP growth fluctuations, up to 17 percent, instead of 6 percent absent the banking sector. Also, they mitigated the severity of the Great Recession’s trough. GDP growth would have been 2.48 percentage points more negative in 2008Q4 without the beneficial effect of low oil prices. The estimate without the banking sector is only 1.30 percentage points.

To assess the effects of an oil price bust on individual labor market outcomes, we leverage the 2015 exogenous decline in international oil prices with geographical variation in oil-dependency in Ecuador. To account for propagation mechanisms, we also test the causal effect of the oil price bust on public transfers to local autonomous governments. Reduced form results suggest a moderate oil price pass-through channel on wages and nonlabor earnings but not on labor supply and participation. Public transfers play an amplification role, as a one percentage point decrease in these funds implies workers in oil-dependent areas to experience a wage reduction of 1.5%. Spillover effects to nonextractive industries, with reduced economic activity at the firm level, seem to be the transmission channels explaining the drop in individual earnings during the oil price bust.

The Saudi agricultural sector relies on diesel for irrigation, which is provided to farmers at a much lower price than the average global price, implying significant opportunity costs. With the aid of soft-coupled power and macro-econometric models, we assess the cost and macroeconomic implications of electrifying irrigation activities in the Saudi agricultural sector. Three electrification scenarios are considered: electrifying each individual farm with a dedicated hybrid renewable micro-grid, electrifying the entire farm cluster with central generation and connecting the entire cluster via transmission to the national grid. Compared with the base-case, connecting the farm cluster to the national grid is found to be the most economical but the least environmentally friendly. The renewable and central generation scenarios are costlier (compared with the transmission scenario) due, respectively, to the high battery costs and gas infrastructure needed.

The objective of the GoI to regulate an affordable natural gas price through MEMR Regulation No. 8/2020 undoubtedly benefit the industrial sector. However, the regulation should be carefully implemented and monitored to prevent revenue loss in the natural gas business entities and avoid underperforming gas users/industries. The study finds three main issues in implementing the new regulated natural gas price. First, the compensation limit for the upstream natural gas entities is problematic for KKKS, whose annual loss is higher than the annual government take. Second, a detailed incentive mechanism for natural gas transmission and distribution companies is unavailable. And third, the evaluation scheme on the industry’s performance remains unclear.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.