Dissertationen zum Thema „Portfolio Premiums“

This thesis aims to explore if the existence of portfolio price premiums can be verified and if they differ in time and over property segments. The purpose is to contribute with valuable insights within the field of portfolio premiums in the real estate industry. In order to explore this further a regression model was developed. The model includes six portfolio variables controlling for size in the aspect of transactional value and number of properties included in the portfolio. We further test if the premium varies over property segments and over time. The data was provided by Cushman & Wakefield and consists of 825 property transactions. The results show that a portfolio premium for small, medium and large portfolios with a transactional value over 500 million SEK, and a discount on small portfolios with a transactional value below 500 million SEK is present. The premium was found to be 17.5% for small portfolios, 16.8% for medium sized and 26.3% for large portfolios. While premiums were found for portfolios with a transactional value over 500 million SEK an 13.7% discount was found for small portfolios with a transaction value below 500 million SEK. Which indicates that investors are willing to pay a premium, but only for larger portfolios. Furthermore, the only segment test with significant results were residential and industrial of which residential indicated a discount on small and medium portfolios with a transactional value over 500 million SEK and industrial indicated a discount on small portfolios with a transactional value over 500 million SEK. The test of variation of a portfolio premium over time gave mixed results and showed that investors payed a premium for medium and large portfolios with a transactional value over 500 million SEK during 2010 - 2015.
Detta masterarbete syftar till att undersöka fenomenet portföljpremier och bidra till utökad kunskap om premier och möjliga förklaringar till varför de uppkommer. Författarna har undersökt om det går att kvantifiera den påstådda portföljpremien och om denna skiljer sig över fastighetsegmenten och tid. Syftet med arbete är att bidrag med värdefulla insikter och kunskap om portföljpremier inom fastighetsbranschen. För att kunna besvara frågeställningen utvecklade författarna en regressionsmodell. Modellen innehöll sex portföljvariabler som bland annat kontrollerade för storlek i förhållande till transaktionsvärde samt antal fastigheter inkluderade i portföljen. För att undersöka om premien varierade över fastighetssegment och med tid utfördes fem olika segmentstest och två års tester. Data som användes i regressionerna tillhandahölls av Cushman & Wakefield. Resultatet av studien visar att det finns en portföljpremie på små, medelstora och stora fastighetsportföljer med ett transaktionsvärde över 500 millioner kronor. Premien noterades till 17,5% för små portföljer, 16,8% för medelstora portföljer och 26,3% för stora portföljer. Medans en premie noterades för portföljer med ett transaktionsvärde över 500 millioner kronor kunde en rabatt om 13,7% hittas för små portföljer med etttransaktionsvärde under 500 millioner kronor. Segmenttesten som genomfördes gav blandade resultat. De test som gav signifikanta resultat var segmentstest för industri och bostäder. Resultatet av regressionen visade att det finns en rabatt för små och medelstora bostadsportföljer med ett transaktionsvärde överstigande 500 millioner kronor samt en rabatt för små industriportföljer med ett transaktionsvärde över 500 millioner kronor. Utöver segmentstesten gjordes även två tester där författarna testade om premien varierade över tid. Likaså här gav testerna blandade resultat. Det kan konstateras att en premie återfinns för portföljer handlade under perioden 2010 - 2015.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 2002.
Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 112-118). Also available for download via the World Wide Web; free to University of Oregon users.

This thesis gives the formal derivations of the so-called Rubinstein's measures of risk aversion and their multivariate generalizations. The applications of these measures in portfolio selection models are also presented. Assuming that a decision maker's preferences can be represented by a unidimensional von Neumann and Morgenstern utility function, we consider a model with an uninsurable initial random wealth and an insurable risk. Under the assumption that the two random variables have a bivariate normal distribution, the second-order co-variance operator is developed from Stein/Rubinstein first-order covariance operator and is used to derive Rubinstein's measures of risk aversion from the approximations of risk premiums. Rubinstein's measures of risk aversion are proved to be the appropriate generalizations of the Arrow-Pratt measures of risk aversion. In a portfolio selection model with two risky investments having a bivariate normal distribution, we show that Rubinstein's measures of risk aversion can yield the desirable characterizations of risk aversion and wealth effects on the optimal portfolio. These properties of Rubinstein's measures of risk aversion are analogous to those of the Arrow-Pratt measures of risk aversion in the portfolio selection model with one riskless and one risky investment. In multi-dimensional decision problems, we assume that a decision maker's preferences can be represented by a multivariate utility function. From the model with an uninsurable initial wealth vector and insurable risk vector having a joint normal distribution in the wealth space, we derived the matrix measures of risk aversion which are the multivariate extension of Rubinstein's measures of risk aversion. The derivations are based on the multivariate version of Stein/Rubinstein covariance operator developed by Gassmann and its second-order generalization to be developed in this thesis. We finally present an application of the matrix measures of risk aversion in a portfolio selection model with a multivariate utility function and two risky investments. In this model, if we assume that the random returns on the two investments and other random variables have a joint normal distribution, the optimal portfolio can be characterized by the matrix measures of risk aversion.
Business, Sauder School of
Graduate

The expected equity premium is an important parameter in many financial models, especially within portfolio optimization. A good forecast of the future equity premium is therefore of great interest. In this thesis we seek to forecast the equity premium, use it in portfolio optimization and then give evidence on how sensitive the results are to estimation errors and how the impact of these can be minimized.

Linear prediction models are commonly used by practitioners to forecast the expected equity premium, this with mixed results. To only choose the model that performs the best in-sample for forecasting, does not take model uncertainty into account. Our approach is to still use linear prediction models, but also taking model uncertainty into consideration by applying Bayesian model averaging. The predictions are used in the optimization of a portfolio with risky assets to investigate how sensitive portfolio optimization is to estimation errors in the mean vector and covariance matrix. This is performed by using a Monte Carlo based heuristic called portfolio resampling.

The results show that the predictive ability of linear models is not substantially improved by taking model uncertainty into consideration. This could mean that the main problem with linear models is not model uncertainty, but rather too low predictive ability. However, we find that our approach gives better forecasts than just using the historical average as an estimate. Furthermore, we find some predictive ability in the the GDP, the short term spread and the volatility for the five years to come. Portfolio resampling proves to be useful when the input parameters in a portfolio optimization problem is suffering from vast uncertainty.

Non-arbitrage asset pricing has been an avenue of unending interest to financial academics and practitioners alike. With increased capital outflow being permitted by developing economies, investors now have easy access to securities issued by foreign firms. The issue investigated in this research is concerned with the persistent presence of arbitrage opportunities between depository receipts and domestic stocks of Indian firms during the recent financial crisis. Instead of being priced in parity with one another during the crisis, ADRs of Indian firms were overpriced by as much as 70% for months on end. This thesis investigates the reasons giving rise to this premium by analyzing causes like benefits from diversification and liquidity.

This thesis contains empirical studies of portfolio choice and asset prices. The first two chapters deal with incorporating labor supply into models traditionally only focusing on consumption. Can the risk premium on stocks be better understood when taking labor supply into account? This is the topic of the first chapter. Do possibilities of varying labor supply, and thus hedging stock market risk, help explain the stock ownership patterns of households? This question is what the second chapter tries to answer. If labor income moves with the stock market, an attempt should be made to hedge this with a lower share of stocks in the portfolio and, but do households act according to this rule? This is what the third chapter investigates. Chapter one, Labor Supply Flexibility and Portfolio Choice: Evidence from the PSID, examines the relationship between labor supply flexibility and portfolio choice. Theoretical articles have shown that, ceteris paribus, the optimal portfolio share of risky assets (stocks) increases with labor supply flexibility, due to increased possibilities of hedging financial risk by adjusting the labor supply. Using PSID household data, this hypothesis is tested using a direct measure of labor supply flexibility from survey questions. The results indicate that the total portfolio share is increased by labor supply flexibility. When separated, most of this effect seems to come from the increased probability of stock ownership due to flexible labor, rather than an increased portfolio share among stockholders. Chapter two, Can Leisure Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle? An Empirical Investigation, investigates the asset pricing properties of non-separable utility functions with consumption and leisure. The parameter restrictions needed to match the historical equity premium are explored using US data on consumption, hours and returns. Empirically, it is shown that to match the equity premium with a low level of risk aversion, consumption and leisure need to be strong complements, i.e. have a very low substitution elasticity. Chapter three, Income Risk and Stockholdings: Evidence from Swedish Microdata, examines the relationship between income risk and portfolio choice. It empirically investigates whether the stock market risk (the covariation with the stock market) in labor income is reflected by an offsetting lower share of stocks in financial portfolios, an effect that has been shown to exist in theoretical articles. Swedish microdata from HINK on households’ income and wealth are used for this purpose. In repeated cross-sections, households are divided into "portfolio cohorts" corresponding to percentiles of the share of stocks in financial assets. Income risk, i.e. the regression beta of (log) income growth on aggregate stock returns, is compared for the different groups. As predicted by theory, the results provide some support for a negative relationship between income risk and the share of stocks.
Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk., 2004

In order to assure a livelihood for the working population after retirement, the national retirement pension was developed. The system is based on 18.5% of each tax-paying worker’s annual salary. The national retirement pension system in Sweden consist of two parts. The first and largest part contributing with 16 percentage points, of the 18.5%, is a defined benefit plan, named the income pension. The second part contributing with 2.5 percentage points, of the 18.5%, is the premium pension, which is a defined contribution plan. The premium pension is the sole part of the national retirement pension controlled by the individual employee, with the opportunity to actively invest in a broad selection of domestic and international funds. Investors not making a choice will be transferred into the governments default fund, named the seventh AP fund. By investing in funds, the premium pension is partly based on each worker’s annual salary but also on the development of the financial market. This thesis has two purposes, the first is to investigate if the default alternative, the seventh AP fund has had a superior risk-adjusted return compared to fifty of the most commonly selected equity funds available in the premium pension selection. The second purpose is to construct portfolios for active investors with different risk-tolerance in order to compare the risk-adjusted return between an investor that has made an active investment in comparison to an investor that has not made an active choice. To conclude, this thesis shows that there are superior funds to select, with regard to risk-adjusted return and risk-exposure, as an alternative to the seventh AP fund. In addition to this, the portfolio construction included in this thesis has proven that active participants can achieve results that are more compatible with their risk preferences in comparison to remaining in the default fund option. However, it is important for investors to remain active and alter their fund selections throughout the years, in order to attain the preferable outcome.

The aim of my Masters thesis is propose the insurance portfolio for legal entity - the Brno based company Úklidový servis ŠKAROUPKA s.r.o. The thesis contains risk analysis and also concept of insurance portfolio that aims to minimaze risks that could limit the company running by the way of insurance product.

Submitted by Pedro Guimarães (pedroengel@hotmail.com) on 2017-12-28T19:42:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese.pdf: 917520 bytes, checksum: cfa05ebb1d37a4a617f387942ee05a15 (MD5)
Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2018-01-15T18:46:52Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese.pdf: 917520 bytes, checksum: cfa05ebb1d37a4a617f387942ee05a15 (MD5)
Made available in DSpace on 2018-01-16T19:08:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese.pdf: 917520 bytes, checksum: cfa05ebb1d37a4a617f387942ee05a15 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-07-28
This doctoral thesis is composed of three chapters related to portfolio theory and model uncertainty. The first paper investigates how ambiguity averse agents explain the equity premium puzzle for a large group of countries including both Advanced Economies (AE) and Emerging Markets (EM). In the second article, we develop a general robust allocation framework that is capable of dealing with parametric and non parametric asset allocation models. In the final paper, I investigate portfolio selection criteria and analyze a set of portfolios out of sample performance in terms of Sharpe ratio (SR) and Certainty Equivalent (CEQ)

Thesis advisor: Pierluigi Balduzzi
This dissertation consists of two essays in empirical asset pricing. Chapter I, "Skewness and Co-skewness in Bond Returns," explores skewness and co-skewness in discrete-horizon bond returns. Using data for 1976-2005, we find bond skewness is comparable to that in equities, varies with the holding period and varies over time. Speculative-grade bonds and collateralized securities have substantial negative skewness. The sign of the price of co-skewness risk in fixed income market is in general consistent with the theoretical prediction of the three-moment CAPM. Co-skewness against the market portfolio is priced differently in various bond sectors: taking a unit of co-skewness risk is rewarded with 0.43% and 2.47% per month for corporate bonds and collateralized securities, respectively. Co-skewness risk helps explain the cross section of expected bond returns when state variables such as inflation, real activity, or short term interest rates are included, or when conditioning information is exploited. Chapter II, "Modern Portfolio Management with Conditioning Information," studies models in which active portfolio managers optimize performance relative to a benchmark and utilize conditioning information unavailable to their clients. We provide explicit solutions for the optimal strategies with multiple risky assets, with or without a risk free asset, and also consider various constraints on portfolio risk or on portfolio weights. The equilibrium implications of the models are discussed. A currency portfolio example shows that the optimal solutions improve the measured performance by 53% out of sample, compared with portfolios ignoring conditioning information
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2009
Submitted to: Boston College. Carroll School of Management
Discipline: Finance

Background: Since 1998 Sweden has individual accounts as a part of both public and occupational schemes (Sundén 2006). Yearly, 2,5% of the pensionable income is set aside to the premium pension (The Swedish Pension Agency 2021) Individuals are able to choose how the premiums should be paid in the system and in what way the money should be invested, either by choosing from the fund market or by refraining from making an active choice and instead let the Swedish pension agency management their money in the passive alternative called AP7 Såfa. The passive alternative AP7 Såfa is a portfolio which adapts to the age of the investor and is built to fit a long-term pension investment.  Purpose: This study will focus on evaluating if the passive alternative AP7 Såfa has an excess risk-adjusted return compared to given portfolios in the premium pension selection system, or if the investor would benefit from managing the portfolio more actively. The study will also search for benefits using the Treynor-Black model to check the optimal allocation between this actively managed portfolio versus the passive alternative AP7 Såfa.  Conclusion: This thesis has shown that there might be superior strategies rather than the index fund to find risk-adjusted excess return in the premium pension system. However, those strategies require professional analysts in order to forecast securities. For households choosing between active management themselves or the passive index fund AP7 Såfa, the most beneficial investment is to be passive and to not actively manage the portfolio. The optimum strategy is found to be the Treynor-Black model with a combined portfolio of the index fund and the active portfolio.

Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka huruvida en aktiv individ får högre framtida pensionsutbetalningar än en individ som låter kapitalet vara kvar i Premiesparfonden.

Vår undersökning har en deduktiv ansats, då ekonomiska teorier har utgjort grunden för de beräkningar som har gjorts. Beräkningarna bygger på hårddata, i form av historiska fondvärden, och studien är därmed kvantitativ. Tidigare undersökningar och beräkningar används för att styrka uppsatsen, som i och med detta är en sekundäranalys.  

Den placeringsstrategi som visade sig ge högst framtida utbetalningar med hänsyn tagen till risken var den aktiva placeringen. De portföljer som de aktiva premiepensionstagarna har att välja mellan i vår studie, ger alla högre framtida utbetalningar än Premiesparfonden. Vidare kan tilläggas att Premiesparfonden är ett av alternativen som har för hög risk i förhållande till dess låga avkastning.

Det skulle vara intressant att om några år, då Premiespar-fonden har förändrats till generationsfonder, göra om denna studie och då undersöka om detta leder till högre pensionsutbetalningar för de icke-aktiva premiepensionstagarna.

Denna studie bidrar med och stärker, genom konkreta exempel, det som en del andra författare redan påpekat, att de icke- aktiva premiepensionsspararna får lägre framtida utbetalningar än de som är aktiva i sitt sparande.

The aim of this thesis is to compare if being an active premium pension saver give rise to higher future payments, than keeping the capital in the Premium Savings Fund.

This essay has a deductive approach, as we started to study financial theories. It also has a quantitative research, since our calculations are called statistical data, which are composed of these financial theories. Previous studies and calculations are used to prove our essay.

The best investment strategy with the highest future payments, regarding risk preferences, turned out to be the active choice. All the choices an active premium pension saver can make by choose one of our different portfolios, has proved higher future payments, than The Premium Pension Fund. Further, the Premium Savings Fund is one of alternatives which have a lower return, regarding to the high level of risk.

It would be interesting to remake this study, when the new funds "generationsfonderna" has been introduced, and to see if this alternative leads to higher future payments.

This study contributes, through substantial examples, what some other writers already have done. A non-active premium pension saver gets lower future payments then the active savers.

The diploma work deals with the suggestion of alternation of insurance portfolio for determinated business subject. The thesis embraces the analyses of risks and the suggestion for appropriate insurance portfolio. The most serious risks will be minimalized through commercial insurance companies due to these suggestions so that their results couldn´t threaten to progress of particular company.

This paper explores the factors that drive purchases of green power by private and public organizations. Using a cross-sectional analysis of participants in EPA’s Green Power Partnership, I explore whether state energy policies have motivated increased consumption of green power among these participating organizations. Additionally, I analyze economic and political variables by state to determine if certain factors contribute to an organization’s green power purchases. I find that state mandates on renewable energy production and lower premiums for green power lead to increased purchases of green power for members of the Green Power Partnership.

Thesis advisor: Jeffrey J.P. Pontiff
My dissertation includes three chapters on the value premium. In the first chapter, I study whether seemingly innocuous decisions in the construction of the original HML portfolio (Fama and French, 1993) affect our inference on the value premium. I find that the value premium is dramatically smaller than we thought. In sample, the average estimate of the value premium is 0.09% per month smaller than the original estimate of the value premium. Out of sample, however, the difference is statistically insignificant. The results suggest that the original value premium estimate is upward biased because of a chance result in the original research decisions. In the second chapter, I propose an estimate for intangible assets and growth opportunities and examine if this estimate improves book-to-market equity as a measure of value. I find that portfolios sorted on book equity plus the estimate to market equity have lower returns than portfolios sorted on book-to-market equity. The results suggest that intangible assets and growth opportunities diminish book-to-market equity as a measure of value because investors value intangible assets and growth opportunities in an overly optimistic way. In my third chapter, I simultaneously study nine explanations of the value effect to better understand what the dominant value explanation is. I find that duration accounts for most of the value effect and that the eight other explanations account for a negligible part of it. The results suggest that duration is the dominant explanation of the value effect
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2021
Submitted to: Boston College. Carroll School of Management
Discipline: Finance

Mestrado em Ciências Actuariais
Este relatório assenta numa análise à sustentabilidade do ramo de Acidentes de Trabalho no contexto do estágio realizado na Allianz Portugal. Inicialmente é explicado o contexto legal do ramo de forma a compreender-se melhor as características específicas deste. Por conseguinte serão detalhados os modelos e pressupostos, utilizados pela Companhia, no cálculo das provisões técnicas de Acidentes de Trabalho. O foco principal será na análise ao tratado de resseguro de Excedente de danos que cobre os custos com sinistros de Acidentes de Trabalho e o seu impacto no resultado técnico. A análise é feita com base no Modelo de Risco coletivo e em indicadores estatísticos como o Value-at-Risk, coeficiente de assimetria, variância e valor esperado.
This report resumes the analysis of the sustainability of Worker's Compensation within the internship at Allianz Portugal. The legal framework of the business is primarily explained as it is important to understand the business specifications. Models and assumptions used, by the Company, in the calculation of technical provisions for Worker's Compensation will be detailed. The main focus of this paper will be in the analysis of the Excess of Loss reinsurance treaty that covers costs from Worker's Compensation and its impact in the technical result. The analysis is based on the Collective Risk Model and statistical indicators, such as Value-at-Risk, skewness coefficient, variance and expected value.

This three-essay thesis focuses on how value of the brand, i.e. brand equity is created, with each study investigating different parts of the relationships within the brand value chain. My first essay identifies and tests a new set of brand equity drivers such as brand structure and positioning, brand strategy, and customer characteristics. I use revenue premium as the retail level measure of brand equity and decompose it into price and volume premiums. Then, I explore the effects of different brand equity drivers on these premiums. The study on the universe of grocery industry in the U.S. shows compelling evidences that volume premium prevails over price premium in driving revenue premium. Brand structure and positioning, brand strategy and customer characteristics contribute significantly to the changes of the brand market performance measured with price, volume and revenue premiums. My second essay examines the association between consumer-based brand equity (IBBE) and brand market performance, and the moderators of this association. I explore a comprehensive set of market performance measures (penetration, loyalty, market share, price and revenue) of 216 major brands sold in the grocery channel in the U.S., in conjunction with EquiTrend© brand equity measure. The results show that customer based brand equity provides incremental explanatory power for brand market performance beyond the explanation by a wide array of performance determinants identified in the first essay. Furthermore, the equity-performance association is moderated by a set of product and category features, as well as the firm brand strategy. My third essay studies whether firms benefit from having multiple brands across different areas. I model brand market performance as a function of different elements of the firm brand portfolio, including the size and performance of sibling brands and the inter-brand distance. The dataset includes 1,700 brands from over 350 firms in the grocery channel within the U.S. The results show that the brand portfolio information provides incremental explanatory power for brand market performance. Moreover, the size and the performance of sibling brands have significant impact on a focal brand's market performance, and these impacts are moderated by the inter-brand distance.

Le Bris a collecté environ 200 000 données sur les actions françaises entre 1854 et 1988 pour construire un indice de performances.Différents biais qui surestimaient la rentabilité dans les indices français existants sont identifiés. D’autres probables cas à l’étranger sont présentés.Sur le long terme, les actions offrent une meilleure rentabilité que les autres actifs mais sans prime particulière.Par rapport aux actions américaines, les françaises sous-performent y compris durant les périodes de paix.Le marché est très sensible aux changements de gouvernements et surperforme sous ceux de gauche.Une nouvelle méthode de détection des krachs est proposée. Elle identifie des krachs cohérents avec l’histoire.Les entreprises de services dominent la capitalisation boursière de manière quasi-continue depuis 1854.La rationalité des investissements en emprunts russes avant 1914 est démontrée grâce à une optimisation de portefeuille parmi les actifs français (action, obligation, rente) et huit emprunts d’Etats étrangers.Une nouvelle méthode de décomposition du bénéfice de diversification est proposée ; les investisseurs français étaient attirés par la faible corrélation plus que par les rentabilités étrangères supérieures avant 1914.Les actions françaises et américaines présentent une hausse de corrélation sur le long terme probablement suivant l’intégration des économies. Ainsi, l’incitation à diversifier internationalement a baissé.Le risque de marché enregistre une forte hausse durant l’entre-deux-guerres et le niveau pré-1914 n’est jamais retrouvé. Il semble lié à la fin du Gold Standard, à l’inflation et aux déficits publics.Conséquence de la hausse de ce risque commun, la corrélation entre actions françaises augmente, réduisant l’effet de diversification domestique ; a l’opposé un « super effet portefeuille » est identifiée avant 1914
Le Bris, collecting about 200,000 data on French stocks from 1854 to 1988, builds a performance index. Several biases leading to overestimate the returns in prior French indices are demonstrated, as well as other probable examples across the globe.Over the long run, French stocks provide a better return than other assets, but without any excessive premium.Compared to US stocks, French stocks have underperformed since 1914, including during the periods of peace.The French stock market is highly sensitive to governmental changes, and overperforms under the left ones.A new method to identify market crashes is proposed. This method identifies crashes that are consistent withhistory.Firms from service industries have almost always dominated market capitalization since 1854.The rationality of the French investments in Russian bonds, before 1914, is demonstrated thanks to a portfoliooptimization among French assets (stock, bonds and corporate bonds) and eight international state bonds.A new method to decompose the benefit of diversification is proposed; before 1914, French investors wereclearly attracted by low foreign correlation rather than higher foreign returns.French and US stocks present a long-term rise in correlation, probably following the economic integration.Thus, the incentive to diversify through international markets has decreased.The market risk exhibits a significant rise during the interwar-period, and the pre-1914 level is never reachedagain. This risk appears to be linked to the end of the Gold Standard, the inflation rate and the public deficits.The consequence of the rise of this common risk is that the correlation among French stocks trend upwards, andthen, reduce the domestic portfolio effect; reversely, before 1914, a “super portfolio effect” is identified

Syftet med studien är att undersöka och jämföra hur svenska hållbara aktiefonder och svenska traditionella aktiefonder har presterat inom premiepensionssystemet under perioden 2015-2019. Detta görs eftersom att intresset för hållbara investeringar har ökat markant både hos privatpersoner och företag de senaste åren. Premiepensionssystemet väljs eftersom att varje privatperson som arbetar och betalar skatt i Sverige får en del av sin inkomst placerad i detta system, och sedan 2018/2019 läggs det otroligt mycket fokus på ökad transparens och medvetenhet hos Pensionsmyndigheten på fondplaceringar och att de kan erbjuda hållbara investeringar eftersom efterfrågan ökar. Författaren kan heller inte identifiera någon liknande studie som gjorts angående premiepension efter det att fondtorget gjorts om. Studien innehåller ett urval på totalt 5 hållbara fonder och 24 traditionella fonder. Studien har inriktat sig på den svenska marknaden, det vill säga fonder som placerar i svenska företag och som återfinns på den svenska marknaden samt uteslutande aktiefonder. Historisk data har insamlats från Pensionsmyndigheten och Morningstar för att sedan ligga till grund för beräkningar med hjälp av olika ekonomiska modeller och prestationsmått som Sharpekvot, Jensen’s alfa och Treynors kvot. Dessa mått mäter den riskjusterade avkastningen. Författaren väljer också att titta på faktisk avkastning, nettoavkastning för att se vad som presterat bäst för en privatperson som investerare. Därutöver görs statistiska beräkningar av statistiska mått i form av t-test för att beräkna p-värde och således kunna se om det finns någon statistisk signifikans för att antingen kunna acceptera eller förkasta en formulerad nollhypotes. Studiens resultat visar ingen större skillnad i prestation mellan hållbara och traditionella fonder, om än en marginell fördel för de traditionella i faktisk nettoavkastning. Studien erhåller heller ingen statistisk signifikans på 5-procentsnivån vilket indikerar på att vi inte kan förkasta nollhypotesen.
The purpose of the study is to investigate and compare how Swedish sustainable equity funds and Swedish traditional equity funds have performed within the premium pension system during the period 2015-2019. This is because the interest in sustainable investments has increased markedly among both individuals and companies in recent years. The premium pension system is chosen because every private person who works and pays tax in Sweden gets part of their income placed in this system, and since 2018/2019 there is an incredible amount of focus on increased transparency and awareness at the Swedish Pensions Agency on fund investments and that they can offer sustainable investments as demand increases. The author can also not identify any similar study that has been done regarding premium pensions after the fund market has been redesigned. The study contains a selection of a total of 5 sustainable funds and 24 traditional funds. The study has focused on the Swedish market, i.e. funds that invest in Swedish companies and that are found on the Swedish market, as well as exclusively equity funds. Historical data has been collected from the Swedish Pensions Agency and Morningstar to then form the basis for calculations using various economic models and performance measures such as Sharpe quota, Jensen's alpha and Treynor's quota and these measures measure the risk-adjusted return. The author also chooses to look at actual returns, net returns to see what has performed best for an individual as an investor. In addition, statistical calculations are made of statistical measures in the form of a t-test to calculate the p-value and thus be able to see if there is any statistical significance for either being able to accept or reject a formulated null hypothesis. The results of the t-statistics show that there is not significant differences in performance between sustainable and traditional funds, although a marginal advantage over the traditional ones in actual net returns. The study also receives no statistical significance at the 5% level, which indicates that we cannot reject the null hypothesis.

Optimisation des modèles d'évaluation et de couverture d'options financières sous contraintes de liquidité
Optimization of pricing and hedging models for financial options under liquidity constraints

碩士
國立中央大學
財務金融研究所
95
Collateralized debt obligations, CDOs, are credit risk products backed by a pool of debt obligations. Over recent years, CDOs have become an important part of the global fixed income market. In this paper, we first describe the overview of CDOs. Then we introduce how rating agencies - Moody’s, S&P and Fitch - determine the rating of a CDO tranche. Each of them has their own methodologies, some are similar and some are different. Next, we construct two synthetic CDOs with one is high premium portfolio and the other is low premium portfolio. Put the required information into S&P’s and Fitch’s rating software and compare these results. Finally, we use these result to make some short discussions about rating arbitrage.

Wang, Yu.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2011.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 33-35).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
Abstract --- p.ii
摘要 --- p.iii
Chapter I. --- Introduction and Overview --- p.1
Chapter II. --- Literature Review --- p.6
Chapter 1. --- Price Impact Literatures --- p.6
Chapter 2. --- Cost Measurement Literatures --- p.9
Chapter 3. --- Trading Friction Literatures --- p.11
Chapter III. --- Sample Description --- p.13
Chapter 1. --- Data Source --- p.13
Chapter 2. --- Selection Criteria for Sample Stocks --- p.14
Chapter 3. --- Summary of Statistics --- p.15
Chapter i. --- General Description --- p.15
Chapter ii. --- Shanghai Stock Exchange versus Shenzhen Stock Exchange --- p.16
Chapter iii. --- Normality Test --- p.17
Chapter IV. --- Regression Analysis --- p.19
Chapter 1. --- Sales Premium Estimation --- p.19
Chapter 2. --- Statistics of the Estimated Sales Premium --- p.20
Chapter 3. --- Factors that Impact the Sales Premium --- p.22
Chapter i. --- Panel Data Regression --- p.22
Chapter ii. --- Results and Interpretations --- p.23
Chapter iii. --- Sales Premium versus Economic Events --- p.25
Chapter IV. --- Robustness Tests. --- p.27
Chapter 1. --- Common Robustness Tests --- p.27
Chapter i. --- Validity of Fixed-Effect Model --- p.27
Chapter ii. --- Autocorrelation Problem: Durbin-Watson tests --- p.27
Chapter iii. --- Heteroskedasticity --- p.28
Chapter iv. --- Consistency of Estimators --- p.28
Chapter 2. --- Additional Variable for Sales Premium Estimation in Shenzhen Stock Exchange --- p.29
Chapter V. --- Conclusion --- p.30
Bibliography --- p.33
Chapter Appendix A. --- Graphs --- p.36
Chapter Appendix B. --- Tables --- p.41

This diploma thesis introduces the measures of network connectedness in the context of asset pricing. It proposes an asset pricing model in which the factor of connectedness is included as one of the risk factors together with the three Fama-French factors. The goal of the analysis is to examine whether the con- nectedness represents a signifcant risk factor that should be considered while determining the risk premium of the portfolio in diferent sectors in the market. Using the realized volatilities and returns of 496 assets of SP 500 index over the period 2005 - 2018, that are divided into 11 sectors, we frstly determine the linkages of connectedness between the assets in the same sector. Applying Fama-MacBeth two-step regression model, we explore the signifcance of the connectedness factor for the determination of the risk premium. We argue that the sector overall connectedness represents a signifcant risk in most of the sec- tors and should be therefore taken into account by the investors in all sectors. Moreover, the total directional connectedness that captures the spillover of shocks to one asset from the other assets in the sector, is a signifcant risk fac- tor that should increase the risk premium of the portfolio, especially in sectors such as the fnancial, health care, consumer...

Cette thèse de doctorat consiste en trois chapitres qui traitent des sujets de choix de portefeuilles de grande taille, et de mesure de risque. Le premier chapitre traite du problème d’erreur d’estimation dans les portefeuilles de grande taille, et utilise le cadre d'analyse moyenne-variance. Le second chapitre explore l'importance du risque de devise pour les portefeuilles d'actifs domestiques, et étudie les liens entre la stabilité des poids de portefeuille de grande taille et le risque de devise. Pour finir, sous l'hypothèse que le preneur de décision est pessimiste, le troisième chapitre dérive la prime de risque, une mesure du pessimisme, et propose une méthodologie pour estimer les mesures dérivées. Le premier chapitre améliore le choix optimal de portefeuille dans le cadre du principe moyenne-variance de Markowitz (1952). Ceci est motivé par les résultats très décevants obtenus, lorsque la moyenne et la variance sont remplacées par leurs estimations empiriques. Ce problème est amplifié lorsque le nombre d’actifs est grand et que la matrice de covariance empirique est singulière ou presque singulière. Dans ce chapitre, nous examinons quatre techniques de régularisation pour stabiliser l’inverse de la matrice de covariance: le ridge, spectral cut-off, Landweber-Fridman et LARS Lasso. Ces méthodes font chacune intervenir un paramètre d’ajustement, qui doit être sélectionné. La contribution principale de cette partie, est de dériver une méthode basée uniquement sur les données pour sélectionner le paramètre de régularisation de manière optimale, i.e. pour minimiser la perte espérée d’utilité. Précisément, un critère de validation croisée qui prend une même forme pour les quatre méthodes de régularisation est dérivé. Les règles régularisées obtenues sont alors comparées à la règle utilisant directement les données et à la stratégie naïve 1/N, selon leur perte espérée d’utilité et leur ratio de Sharpe. Ces performances sont mesurée dans l’échantillon (in-sample) et hors-échantillon (out-of-sample) en considérant différentes tailles d’échantillon et nombre d’actifs. Des simulations et de l’illustration empirique menées, il ressort principalement que la régularisation de la matrice de covariance améliore de manière significative la règle de Markowitz basée sur les données, et donne de meilleurs résultats que le portefeuille naïf, surtout dans les cas le problème d’erreur d’estimation est très sévère. Dans le second chapitre, nous investiguons dans quelle mesure, les portefeuilles optimaux et stables d'actifs domestiques, peuvent réduire ou éliminer le risque de devise. Pour cela nous utilisons des rendements mensuelles de 48 industries américaines, au cours de la période 1976-2008. Pour résoudre les problèmes d'instabilité inhérents aux portefeuilles de grandes tailles, nous adoptons la méthode de régularisation spectral cut-off. Ceci aboutit à une famille de portefeuilles optimaux et stables, en permettant aux investisseurs de choisir différents pourcentages des composantes principales (ou dégrées de stabilité). Nos tests empiriques sont basés sur un modèle International d'évaluation d'actifs financiers (IAPM). Dans ce modèle, le risque de devise est décomposé en deux facteurs représentant les devises des pays industrialisés d'une part, et celles des pays émergents d'autres part. Nos résultats indiquent que le risque de devise est primé et varie à travers le temps pour les portefeuilles stables de risque minimum. De plus ces stratégies conduisent à une réduction significative de l'exposition au risque de change, tandis que la contribution de la prime risque de change reste en moyenne inchangée. Les poids de portefeuille optimaux sont une alternative aux poids de capitalisation boursière. Par conséquent ce chapitre complète la littérature selon laquelle la prime de risque est importante au niveau de l'industrie et au niveau national dans la plupart des pays. Dans le dernier chapitre, nous dérivons une mesure de la prime de risque pour des préférences dépendent du rang et proposons une mesure du degré de pessimisme, étant donné une fonction de distorsion. Les mesures introduites généralisent la mesure de prime de risque dérivée dans le cadre de la théorie de l'utilité espérée, qui est fréquemment violée aussi bien dans des situations expérimentales que dans des situations réelles. Dans la grande famille des préférences considérées, une attention particulière est accordée à la CVaR (valeur à risque conditionnelle). Cette dernière mesure de risque est de plus en plus utilisée pour la construction de portefeuilles et est préconisée pour compléter la VaR (valeur à risque) utilisée depuis 1996 par le comité de Bâle. De plus, nous fournissons le cadre statistique nécessaire pour faire de l’inférence sur les mesures proposées. Pour finir, les propriétés des estimateurs proposés sont évaluées à travers une étude Monte-Carlo, et une illustration empirique en utilisant les rendements journaliers du marché boursier américain sur de la période 2000-2011.
This thesis consists of three chapters on the topics of portfolio choice in a high-dimensional context, and risk measurement. The first chapter addresses the estimation error issue that arises when constructing large portfolios in the mean-variance framework. The second chapter investigates the relevance of currency risk for optimal domestic portfolios, evaluates their ability of to diversify away currency risk, and study the links between portfolio weights stability and currency risk. Finally, under the assumption that decision makers are pessimistic, the third chapter derives the risk premium, propose a measure of the degree of pessimism, and provide a statistical framework for their estimation. The first chapter improves the performance of the optimal portfolio weig-hts obtained under the mean-variance framework of Markowitz (1952). Indeed, these weights give unsatisfactory results, when the mean and variance are replaced by their sample counterparts (plug-in rules). This problem is amplified when the number of assets is large and the sample covariance is singular or nearly singular. The chapter investigates four regularization techniques to stabilizing the inverse of the covariance matrix: the ridge, spectral cut-off, Landweber-Fridman, and LARS Lasso. These four methods involve a tuning parameter that needs to be selected. The main contribution is to derive a data-based method for selecting the tuning parameter in an optimal way, i.e. in order to minimize the expected loss in utility of a mean-variance investor. The cross-validation type criterion derived is found to take a similar form for the four regularization methods. The resulting regularized rules are compared to the sample-based mean-variance portfolio and the naive 1/N strategy in terms of in-sample and out-of-sample Sharpe ratio and expected loss in utility. The main finding is that regularization to covariance matrix significantly improves the performance of the mean-variance problem and outperforms the naive portfolio, especially in ill-posed cases, as suggested by our simulations and empirical studies. In the second chapter, we investigate the extent to which optimal and stable portfolios of domestic assets can reduce or eliminate currency risk. This is done using monthly returns on 48 U.S. industries, from 1976 to 2008. To tackle the instabilities inherent to large portfolios, we use the spectral cut-off regularization described in Chapter 1. This gives rise to a family of stable global minimum portfolios that allows investors to select different percentages of principal components for portfolio construction. Our empirical tests are based on a conditional International Asset Pricing Model (IAPM), augmented with the size and book-to-market factors of Fama and French (1993). Using two trade-weighted currency indices of industrialized countries currencies and emerging markets currencies, we find that currency risk is priced and time-varying for global minimum portfolios. These strategies also lead to a significant reduction in the exposure to currency risk, while keeping the average premium contribution to total premium approximately the same. The global minimum weights considered are an alternative to market capitalization weights used in the U.S. market index. Therefore, our findings complement the well established results that currency risk is significantly priced and economically meaningful at the industry and country level in most countries. Finally, the third chapter derives a measure of the risk premium for rank-dependent preferences and proposes a measure of the degree of pessimism, given a distortion function. The introduced measures generalize the common risk measures derived in the expected utility theory framework, which is frequently violated in both experimental and real-life situations. These measures are derived in the neighborhood of a given random loss variable, using the notion of local utility function. A particular interest is devoted to the CVaR, which is now widely used for asset allocation and has been advocated to complement the Value-at-risk (VaR) proposed since 1996 by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. We provide the statistical framework needed to conduct inference on the derived measures. Finally, the proposed estimators