Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Police service in NSW“

This study focused on Police Reforms Practices and Service Delivery in the Kenya Police Service at Machakos County Police Headquarters. Police reforms in Kenya as availed from literature indicate that the colonial government in 1950 made attempts on reforming the police force. The appointment of the National Task Force on Police Reforms arose mainly from the post-election violence in 2007-2008 where hundreds of Kenyans lost their lives, thousands of people were displaced and property destroyed. This is because the police officers used excessive force, they were not trained to handle the violence that erupted and they took political sides. In order to address these concerns, the study aimed at examining police reforms practices and service delivery at Machakos county headquarters. Service delivery is a component of business that defines the interaction between providers and clients. Good service delivery provides clients with an increase in value. A well-functioning public sector that delivers quality public services consistent with citizen preferences and that fosters private market-led growth. The specific objectives were to establish the effect of personnel reforms and service delivery, establish the effect of financial reforms on service delivery and to establish the effect of legal reforms and service delivery in the Kenya Police service at Machakos County Police Headquarters Kenya. The significance of the study is as it tackled and documented the effect of police reforms practices and service delivery. It highlights the effect of personnel reforms and service deliver, financial reforms and service delivery and the legal reforms and legal reforms and service deliver. The study was guided by the Resource Based Theory, Servqual theory and the New Public Management Model in analyzing the theoretical background. A descriptive survey research design was used. The study targeted a population of 110 senior police officers in the Kenya Police Service and adopted the census approach to obtain information from every member of the population. Primary data was collected using a semi structured questionnaire, while secondary data was collected through review of literature on police reforms. Pilot study was conducted to validate the questionnaire. Data collected was subjected to quantitative analysis and data was presented using tables, graphs and pie charts inferential statistics was used in the study including correlation and multiple regressions in order to determine the relationship between the independent and dependent variables. Statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) version 22 was used to aid the analysis of the data. The findings revealed that personnel reforms and service deliver, financial reforms and service delivery and legal reforms and service delivery influence service delivery in the Kenya Police Service to a great extent. The findings conclude that personnel reforms have a positive and significant influence on service delivery in the Kenya Police Service at Machakos County Police Headquarters in Kenya. The conclusion on financial reforms and Service delivery, legal reforms and service delivery and financial reforms and service delivery have a positive and significant influence on service delivery in the Kenya Police Service. The findings recommend that the Kenya Police Service at Machakos County Police Headquarters should implement the personnel reforms. The findings also recommend that the police service should give police access to improved salary, savings Sacco and increased allowances. The findings furthermore recommend that legal reforms be instated that will assist in conducting impartial investigations, inspections, audits and monitoring of the National Police Service to enhance professionalism and discipline of the Service.

Stewart Einfeld is at the School of Psychiatry, University of New South Wales; the late Margaret Tobin was the Director of Mental Health, South Australia; John Beard is Head of the Northern Rivers University Department of Rural Health, University of Sydney; Elizabeth Evans is a Research Assistant at the School of Psychiatry, University of New South Wales; Richard Buss is the Area Manager, Northern Rivers Area Mental Health Service; Michael Dudley is a child psychiatrist at Prince of Wales Hospital and the School of Psychiatry, University of New South Wales.This report is dedicated to our late co-author Margaret Tobin, to honour her contribution to advancing the quality of mental health services.Objective: In 1998 and 1999, two NSW Area Health Services conducted the Youth At Risk of Deliberate Self Harm (YARDS) project. The YARDS project was designed to implement evidence-based service enhancements for the clinical management of young people with Deliberate Self Harm. This paper examines the extent to which service enhancements implemented during YARDS were maintained 4 years after the conclusion of the project and compares service quality with another NSW Area Health Service that did not participate in the YARDS project.Method: Staff from mental health services and emergency departments completed the Service Activity Scale, a measure developed for the YARDS project to assess the quality of health service response to individuals who present following a suicide attempt.Results: Results indicated that the service improvements made during the YARDS project were maintained 4years after the project ended. Furthermore, a significant difference was found between scores for services that participated in YARDS and services that did not participate in YARDS.Conclusions: These results suggest that projects such as YARDS which support evidence based service nhancements may be useful in improving the management of young people with deliberate self-harm, and that these improvements may be long-lasting.

Purpose The organisational and service delivery landscape of the emergency services in the UK has been rapidly changing and is facing further change in the foreseeable future. The purpose of this paper is to examine recent and ongoing organisational changes in the policy development, service delivery and regulatory landscape of the emergency services, in order to capture the overall picture and potential opportunities for improvement or further investigation. Design/methodology/approach This general review utilises the characteristics of the three domains of a national framework, namely, policy development, service delivery and public assurance, and uses these characteristics as lenses to examine the three main blue light emergency services of police, fire and ambulances. Findings What emerges in the organisational landscape and conceptual maps for the police and even more so for the Fire and Rescue Service, is the immaturity of many of the organisations in the policy and the public assurance domains while the service delivery organisations have remained relatively stable. In the relatively neglected ambulance services, we find the NHS’s recent Ambulance Response Programme has considerable potential to improve parts of all three domains. Research limitations/implications The review is limited to the UK and primarily focussed on England. Practical implications The review identifies opportunities for improvement, potential improvement and further research. Originality/value Although the National Audit Office has attempted in the past to provide organisational landscape reviews of individual emergency services, this contemporary comparative review of all three services using a common model is unique. It provides considerable new insights for policy makers, service delivers and regulators.

Policing in the UK is moving towards more central control than ever before in its history, at the expense of a strong tripartite system, which seems to exist in name only. The evolving national network in England and Wales has a statutory foundation, while Scotland has adopted a mainly nonstatutory approach to central control, although this should change with new legislation in 2003. The potential for further centralisation in Scotland remains high because of the nation's size and new devolved constitutional position. The key question for all concerned in the UK, and particularly in Scotland, is what system of policing do we wish to have: a national service; a regional system; or the status quo? The answer can be found only after open public debate takes place.

How does civic disengagement develop? This article examines the theory that the dissatisfaction and disengagement citizens develop toward one government agency can extend to an alternative agency. Leveraging police precinct-level data on 311 calls and criminal complaints from 2004 to 2012 in New York City, it investigates whether government responsiveness to municipal issues predicts citizens’ willingness to submit criminal complaints to the police. The study finds that predictors of disengagement with law enforcement extend beyond negative interactions with law enforcement alone. Rather, the time it takes local government officials to fix a 311 request for services, such as filling potholes and abating noise, shapes the likelihood that residents will file misdemeanor criminal complaints. Thus policymakers must account for the policy environment beyond their agency’s domain to alleviate citizens’ dissatisfaction and disengagement with government overall.

IntroductionResidential fires remain a significant global public health problem. It is recognised that the reported number of residential fires, fire-related injuries and deaths significantly underestimate the true number. Australian surveys show that around two-thirds of respondents who experience a residential fire are unwilling to call the fire service, and international studies highlight that many individuals who access medical treatment for fire-related injuries do not have an associated fire incident report. The objectives of this study are to quantify the incidence, health impacts, risk factors and economic costs of residential fires in New South Wales (NSW), Australia.Methods and analysisThe RESFIRE cohort will include all persons living at an NSW residential address which experienced a fire over the period 2005–2014. Nine data sources will be linked to provide a comprehensive picture of individual trajectories from fire event to first responder use (fire and ambulance services), emergency department presentations, hospital admissions, burn out-patient clinic use and death. These data will be used to describe the circumstances and characteristics of residential fires, provide a profile of fire-related injuries, examine trends over time, and explore the relationship between fire circumstance, emergency and health services utilisation, and health outcomes. Regression modelling, including multilevel modelling techniques, will be used to explore factors that impact on these relationships. Costing models will be constructed.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval for this study has been obtained from the NSW Population and Health Service Research Ethics Committee and Western Sydney University Human Research Ethics Committee. The study reference group comprises key stakeholders including Fire and Rescue NSW, policy agencies, health service providers and burns clinicians ensuring wide dissemination of results and translation of data to inform practice and identify areas for targeted prevention. Summary reports in formats designed for policy audiences in parallel with scientific papers will be produced.

Police culture often valorises 'hard' drinking, and in NSW police label their heavy drinkers 'heroes'. It is queried if there is some relationship between occupational culture and drinking style.It is found that much of the current theorising about the origins and nature of problem drinking, such as psychological theorising about stress, is inadequate to explain and address the extraordinary level of high-risk drinking among police.This thesis explores alternative views such as critical and feminist perspectives on police culture, constructions of masculinity, and mechanisms of 'enabling', to discover whether these might prove more applicable and more productive. The research also explores the matter of whether a case can be made for taking alternative ideas and theories into account in designing intervention programmes for specific occupation contexts, and whether they raise any policy and practical implications for addressing problem drinking within the NSW Police Service.
Master of Science (Hons)

In March 2012, Sir Tom Winsor published an ‘Independent Review of Police Officer and Staff Remuneration and Conditions’. This wide-ranging appraisal of the police service made a number of recommendations. One of the most controversial (recommendation 19) was that a direct entry pathway into policing,at the superintendent rank, should be established. In November 2014, the first cohort of direct entry superintendents commenced an 18-month training course,intended to equip them with the knowledge and skills to become senior police leaders. This thesis presents the findings of a study that followed the development of these officers as they progressed through their training and into roles as operational superintendents and concludes by proposing a ‘blended leadership model for policing’. The direct entry officers were interviewed at regular intervals throughout their training, to capture their reflections on this unique experience. Influential stakeholders from the chief officer ranks, staff associations and elsewhere also took part in this research. A focus on police culture and police leadership was used to contextualise the data that was collected. It was found that parts of the police service are insular and shackled by a lack of creativity and innovation. It was also identified that police culture doesn’t always welcome new perspectives. Importantly, it is argued that the service does not widely recognise that these issues exist and so is not equipped to resolve them from within. The direct entry superintendents were found to be engaging, motivated and credible professionals. They bring to their new roles a wealth of experience. This includes experience of delivering tangible outcomes for their previous organisations and also experience of leading people. These individuals are committed to public service and are mindful of the significant responsibility that they are accepting. The first 18 months of their service has been challenging. As the first cohort of direct entry officers, the College of Policing’s training course was in no way established. The superintendents were to experience significant pockets of resistance to the direct entry scheme. This was evidenced during the recruitment process, through face-to-face interactions with senior officers during training and also in the workplace. Opposition to this new pathway into the service has also been particularly evident on social media platforms. Multiple entry points into the police service are now established. The third cohort of direct entry superintendents will soon be commencing their training. There are significant research opportunities associated with this,including further exploration of culture and leadership perspectives as well as further review of operational capability and competence by direct entry officers.

This study examines ways in which Australian governments, at national and state level, have developed policy responses to the issue of regional service delivery in the post new public management environment. It argues that new public management has changed many institutional arrangements in Australia and led to new public policy approaches based on those reforms. The study compares the approaches taken by federal and state governments in determining service levels for regional communities. The period under consideration is 1996-2001, coinciding first with the election of new NSW and federal governments and their subsequent re-election. Four cases studies are used to analyse a range of activities designed to provide services at local and regional levels, identifying key indicators of policy successes based on coordinated and integrated regional services combined with technology-based solutions that can be adapted to local community needs. The research draws on new governance theory and principles of effective coordination to propose a new model for determining appropriate service delivery. This model highlights the importance of local participation in decision-making, a regional planning focus, social and environmental sustainability, and the engagement of local communities as key determinants of regional policy success.

The purpose of this thesis was to identify what effect the Introduction of New Public Management (NPM) in the police service has had on the role of the police sergeant supervisor. The study has investigated the role of the uniform police sergeant at five locations within the Metropolitan Police Service (MPS), London, England in two stages. The main source of data was detailed face-to-face interviews with the sergeants and their accompanying role-set members. This was augmented by limited participant observation and examination of supporting organisational documents. The study discusses the results at three levels: (i) the reaction of the MPS in response to NPM; (ii) the impact of the changes within the MPS on the rote of the sergeant supervisor; and (iii) the value of role-set analysis in contextual studies. The organisational changes within the MPS followed the patterns expressed within much of the literature. The identified changes were: changes to the structure including elements of devolution; a nominal reduction in the layers of management; the lntroduction of increased accountability through performance manaqement systems; and attempts to create a new culture of service and customer focus. Interestingly the degree of control exerted from the centre on local activities appeared to have increased rather than decreased as one might expect given the ethos of NPM. This high degree of control was predominantly achieved through the use. of centralist performance measures, particularly those under the control and direction of central government. None of the literature examines the impact of NPM on the supervisor role or service delivery. The majority hypothesises on the likely impact and to a large degree this study supported those hypothesis. The impact on the role of the sergeant was found to be significant in the following respect: increased workload; increased responsibility; greater accountability; reduced autonomy; insufficient training to meet the new demands; insufficient organisational support; and reduced levels of performance. Although not a specific part of the study symptoms of stress and a high level of work absence were noted. The success in identifying the various expectations of the role-set actors and the subsequent supervisor responses vindicates the literature that proffered the use of role-set analysis in examining roles. The use of face-to-face interviews within a series of role-sets enabled the study to look at the role of the sergeant in a contextual and holistic manner. In doing so it resulted in a richness of data that could not be obtained using questionnaires. This approach was particularly suited to an ill-defined role such as that of the sergeant supervisor. In using this approach we argue that it has identified activities and influences that would not have been identified from single participant observation or discussion. It was instrumental in identifying the network effect and influence of the peer group sergeants. In a pseudo military, hierarchical, bureaucracy such as the police service one might expect the manager of the sergeant to play a major role in the definition of subordinate roles. Surprisingly this was not the case in this study. We identified that the peer group serçeants, to,gether with a lesser role played by subordinate constables, were the major determinates of the basket of activities attributed to the role of the sergeant supervisor. The findings reported here suggest that more studies of the impact of NPM on the actual service delivery are warranted. Currently the evidence points to the centralist control through performance management systems having a detrimental impact on the ability of supervisors to provide a service that meets the needs of the customer and the stated aims of NPM.

L'objectif général de cette thèse est de contribuer à la réflexion sur les modes de gestion publique du transport des marchandises dans les villes soumises à des pressions logistiques fortes. Dans la partie I, après avoir traité la question générale du "transport des marchandise en ville", nous introduisons la notion de sur-représentation logistique des métropoles. L'étude du dispositif logistique des régions parisienne et new-yorkaise permet de valider partiellement l'hypothèse de liens spécifiques entretenus par les grandes villes avec le fret et la logistique. Dans la partie II, nous analysons la réponse publique aux enjeux du fret urbain, à travers un recensement des acteurs qui interviennent en ville sur le transport de marchandises, et des instruments qu'ils privilégient. Le dispositif juridique général (droit du transport, droit des collectivités territoriales, etc.) qui encadre les actions publiques sur le fret "ignore" encore largement le fret urbain, tout en attribuant aux acteurs locaux des responsabilités importantes. Malgré un intérêt exprimé par des acteurs régionaux ou nationaux pour des politiques logistiques globales (plates-formes de fret, intermodalité), ce sont les réglementations communales régissant la circulation des véhicules utilitaires et la configuration des lieux de chargement et déchargement des marchandises qui constituent l'essentiel de l'action publique sur le fret en milieu urbain. Dans la partie III, les constats précédents sont analysés à l'aide des catégories du droit administratif situées entre les deux pôles de la "police" et du "service public". L'utilisation de ce canevas juridique permet de mettre en valeur la prééminence de la notion de prescription sur celle de prestation. Mais questions d'efficacité économique et préoccupations environnementales se joignent afin de promouvoir une régulation nouvelle des activités du fret : des politiques de "centres de distribution urbaine" sont mises en œuvre par un nombre croissant de villes européennes, allant parfois jusqu'à envisager le transport des marchandises comme un service public. Nous discutons les avantages mais aussi les risques posés par cette évolution de l'action publique sur le fret urbain d'une régulation strictement "policière" à une régulation de type prestataire appartenant à la sphère du service.

Now, more than ever, is Nordic collaboration required across all levels of governance to help overcome the devastating socio-economic impacts of the pandemic and to solve the shared challenges posed by climate change and growing urban-rural divides. This policy brief examines six good practice examples of collaborative public service delivery from across the Nordic Region, highlighting the main drivers, challenges and enablers of collaboration and the replication potential of these Nordic collaborative examples. The policy brief finds that new and innovative models of Nordic collaboration are constantly emerging thanks to rapid technological developments that are helping to bring stakeholders together to solve common societal challenges. The high levels of cooperation outlined indicate that collaborative governance is continually evolving within the Nordic context.

Public employment services (PES) offer tools through different channels to both employers and job seekers. The multiplicity of services and channels, paired with processes that are sometimes inadequately mapped, creates challenges when implementing digital systems. This document discusses how using enterprise architecture can provide a framework for defining and representing a high-level view of the organizations processes and its information technology (IT) systems, as well as their relationship with different parts of the organization and external entities. Having a strategic vision and a high-level design allows implementing systems in phases and modules to organize services to improve their efficiency and effectiveness. This document aims to support policy makers, managers and officials working with employment policies in understanding the benefits of implementing a comprehensive digital transformation in institutions within the framework of a strategic tool such as enterprise architecture.

This paper examines new data on public sector employees from 18 Latin American countries to shed light on the role of trust in the performance of government agencies. We developed an original survey taken during the first COVID-19 wave that includes randomized experiments with pandemic-related treatments. We document that individual-level trust in coworkers, other public employees, and citizens is positively related to performance-enhancing behaviors, such as cooperation and information-sharing, and policy attitudes, such as openness to technological innovations in public service delivery. Trust is more strongly linked to positive behaviors and attitudes in non-merit-based civil service systems. High-trust and low-trust respondents report different assessments of their main work constraints. Also, they draw different inferences and prefer different policy responses when exposed to data-based framing treatments about social distancing outcomes in their countries. Low-trust public employees are more likely to assign responsibility for a negative outcome to the government and to prefer stricter enforcement of social distancing.

Public transit ridership in California declined in the five years before the pandemic of 2020–21 and dropped significantly further after the pandemic began. A sharp downward step in the level of transit boarding occurred after February 2020, and continues to the date of this report as a result of the public-health guidance on social distancing, expanded work-at-home, and a travel mode shift from public transit to private cars. A critical issue has come to the foreground of public transportation policy, namely, how to increase the quality and geographic reach of transit service to better serve the essential trips of mobility disadvantaged citizens who do not have access to private vehicle travel. The research focus of this report is an examination of the circumstances where fixed route bus route service could cost-effectively be replaced by on-demand microtransit, with equivalent overall zone-level efficiency and a higher quality of complete trip service. Research methods were reviews of documented agency experience, execution of simple simulations, and sketch-level analysis of 2019 performance reported in the National Transit Database. Available evidence is encouraging and suggestive, but not conclusive. The research found that substitutions of flexible microtransit for fixed route buses are already being piloted across the U.S., with promising performance results. The findings imply that action steps could be taken in California to expand and refine an emphasis on general purpose microtransit in corridors and zones with a relatively high fraction of potential travelers who are mobility disadvantaged, and where traditional bus routes are capturing fewer than 15 boardings per vehicle hour. To be sufficiently productive as fixed route replacements, microtransit service technologies in the same or larger zones need to be capable of achieving vehicle boardings of five per hour, a challenge worth addressing with technology applications. Delivery of microtransit service can be undertaken through contracts with a growing set of private sector firms, which are developing processes to merge general purpose customers with those now assigned to ADA-required paratransit and Medi-Cal-supported non-emergency medical transport.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

The digitalisation of the economy has spotlighted fundamental flaws in international tax rules, which have been exacerbated since the 1970s with the wider shift to the services economy and the growth of international services. These systemic flaws have been more evident from the perspective of countries that are mainly importers of services that have tried to retain rights to tax profits at the source from which they derive. While they succeeded in retaining a wider scope for source taxation, key provisions have been subject to continuing conflicts and contestation over their formulation and interpretation, leaving a legacy of ambiguity and confusion. Digitalisation has now sparked a dramatic reversal of perspective by more developed countries and an acceptance of principles they have long resisted: that taxation of transnational corporations can be based on apportionment of an appropriate fraction of their global income and can be by countries from where they derive income, regardless of physical presence. This paper outlines the contested process that has shaped the formulation of key provisions on taxation of international services, discusses the recent moves to reshape these rules and evaluates some policy options for capital-importing countries to strengthen their taxing rights in the current context.

The internet and digital technologies are upending global trade. Industries and supply chains are being transformed, and the movement of data across borders is now central to the operation of the global economy. Provisions in trade agreements address many aspects of the digital economy – from cross-border data flows, to the protection of citizens’ personal data, and the regulation of the internet and new technologies like artificial intelligence and algorithmic decision-making. The UK government has identified digital trade as a priority in its Global Britain strategy and one of the main sources of economic growth to recover from the pandemic. It wants the UK to play a leading role in setting the international standards and regulations that govern the global digital economy. The regulation of digital trade is a fast-evolving and contentious issue, and the US, European Union (EU), and China have adopted different approaches. Now that the UK has left the EU, it will need to navigate across multiple and often conflicting digital realms. The UK needs to decide which policy objectives it will prioritise, how to regulate the digital economy domestically, and how best to achieve its priorities when negotiating international trade agreements. There is an urgent need to develop a robust, evidence-based approach to the UK’s digital trade strategy that takes into account the perspectives of businesses, workers, and citizens, as well as the approaches of other countries in the global economy. This working paper aims to inform UK policy debates by assessing the state of play in digital trade globally. The authors present a detailed analysis of five policy areas that are central to discussions on digital trade for the UK: cross-border data flows and privacy; internet access and content regulation; intellectual property and innovation; e-commerce (including trade facilitation and consumer protection); and taxation (customs duties on e-commerce and digital services taxes). In each of these areas the authors compare and contrast the approaches taken by the US, EU and China, discuss the public policy implications, and examine the choices facing the UK.

Short-term rentals mediated by digital platforms have positive and negative impacts that are unevenly distributed among socio-economic groups and places. Detrimental impacts on the housing market and quality of life of long-term residents have been particular contentious in some cities. • In the 12 cities studied in the report (Amsterdam, Barcelona, Berlin, Brussels, Lisbon, London, Madrid, Milan, Paris, Prague, Rome and Vienna), city governments have responded differently to the growth of short-term rentals. • The emerging local regulations of short-term rentals take multiple forms and exhibit various degrees of stringency, ranging from rare cases of laissez-faire to a few cases of partial prohibition or strict quantitative control. Most city governments have sought to find a middle-ground approach that differentiates between the professional rental of whole units and the occasional rental of one’s home/ primary residence. • The regulation of short-term rentals is contentious and highly politicised. Six broad categories of interest groups and non-state actors actively participate in the debates with contrasting positions: advocates of the ‘sharing’ or ‘collaborative’ economy; corporate platforms; professional organisatons of short-term rental operators; new associations of hosts or ‘home-sharers’; the hotel and hospitality industry; and residents’ associations/citizens’ movements. • All city governments face difficulties in implementing and enforcing the regulations, due to a lack of sufficient resources and to the absence of accurate and comprehensive data on individual hosts. That data is held by corporate platforms, which have generally not accepted to release it (with a few exceptions) nor to monitor the content of their listings against local rules. • The relationships between platforms and city governments have oscillated between collaboration and conflict. Effective implementation is impossible without the cooperation of platforms. • In the context of the European Union, the debate has taken a supranational dimension, as two pieces of EU law frame the possibility — and acceptable forms — of regulation of online platforms and of short-term rentals in EU member states: the 2000 E-Commerce Directive and the 2006 Services Directive. • For regulation to be effective, the EU legal framework should be revised to ensure platform account- ability and data disclosure. This would allow city (and other ti ers of) governments to effectively enforce the regulations that they deem appropriate. • Besides, national and regional governments, who often control the legislative framework that defines particular types of short-term rentals, need to give local governments the necessary tools to be able to exercise their ‘right to regulate’ in the name of public interest objectives.