Dissertationen zum Thema „Pandemic policy“

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The traditional public health model for mass vaccination, which is based on the assumption that workforce will be sufficient to mount a campaign, is flawed. Funding initiatives by Congress, while addressing certain inadequacies, have failed to consider workforce capacity that continued to decline resulting from state and local budget cuts. Thus, as the nation prepared for its first pandemic in 40 years and first of the twenty-first century, it found itself unprepared for a mass vaccination campaign. This thesis explores pandemic vaccine distribution, contrasting Department of Health and Human Service guidance with pandemic gap analyses and the recent H1N1 vaccination campaign. An analysis of the literature revealed that unresolved state and federal distribution issues contributed to distribution delays during the H1N1 call for mass vaccination. Policy analysis was used to evaluate public health and private sector vaccine distribution models, and a third hybrid model was proposed to improve support for public health emergencies. Adoption of the hybrid model will enhance the vaccination process from production through distribution along with administration to support U.S national security interest in biosecurity. The hybrid model offers a strategic solution for pandemic vaccine distribution and proposes a new approach for efficient, rapid distribution of biological countermeasures.

All-hazards pandemic planning is the foundation of current emergency management planning doctrine, yet there is limited information and limited studies related to its effectiveness in mitigating pandemics. The North Texas emergency management community handles incidents of West Nile Virus, H1N1 influenza, and a recent Ebola incident. Despite efforts to mitigate these threats, reported cases and deaths are still occurring from both influenza and West Nile virus. The purpose of this case study was to assess the risk perceptions of emergency planners in a small emergency operation center in North Texas using the cultural theory of risk perception as the theoretical framework. The raw data for this study originated from qualitative semi structured interviews with five emergency managers. By way of qualitative hand coding and thematic extraction, four primary themes emerged from the data: (a) political/organizational climate, (b) emergency response, (c) training and experience, and (d) communication. Additionally, all themes yielded relevant subthemes. The all-hazards approach to pandemic planning was effective as long as planners swiftly adjusted or adapted their plan for individual emergency events. The emergency management community still struggles with ineffective communication, negative political influences, poor coordination, and training shortfalls. Lack of trust in the levels of government emerged as a potential underlying cause to many of the issues. These findings may promote positive social change by assisting emergency management planners in assessing communications, coordination, training, appropriate use of personnel, and to identify areas where lack of trust between community partners may be affecting the overall response effort.

Includes bibliographical referencs (p.116-126).
Most research on 'Pentecostal/Charismatic' Churches in South Africa, though, examines reasons for their growth and related socio-economic development potential. Not one examines their response to HIV and AIDS specifically. Therefore, this dissertation seeks to answer two important questions: (1): How are Pentecostal/Charismatic Churches in the Western Cape responding to the HIV and AIDS pandemic? (2): What Policy Learning can be derived from the examination of these churches' responses to the HIV and AIDS pandemic in the Western Cape?

This paper explores WHO’s response during the COVID-19 pandemic and compares it to its response during the SARS epidemic in 2003. This is done by examining the organization’s performance through a policy output approach and theoretical perspectives of effectiveness and performance theories. The policy output approach offers an operational model that suggests studying five variables of output applied to the policy documents published by the organization. The results show that WHO has increased its performance and productivity since SARS 2003 which might indicate that the effectiveness of the organization could have increased along with it. However, in order to ultimately establish effectiveness, external factors such as compliance of member states and domestic politics needs to be considered in future studies. This study contributes to the understanding of WHO’s performance in times of crisis and can be used as background for further research on effectiveness.

INTRODUCTION: The study focuses on finding a methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of the nonpharmaceutical intervention in the face of a new pathogen entering the population. Different interventions can have different effectiveness levels in different populations; thus, studying possible correlations and effectiveness among different groups is essential. With better knowledge of the topic, the outbreak management could be done more cost-effectively, reducing the need for antibiotics, vaccines, and possible reduction of infectious diseases caused burden in developing regions. Furthermore, the study aims to determine the ways of using excess mortality as an evaluation technique for nonpharmaceutical interventions used in the Covid-19 pandemic.  METHOD: The variables in time-series format were used to calculate a cross-correlation score alongside other correlation coefficient tests. With the cross-correlation, the lag will be established to estimate how the variables correlate in the timeline. In addition, the study will attempt to establish the connections between different nonpharmaceutical interventions and their strengths and different age groups. RESULTS: The most frequent lag scores identified were 1 with 16 observations and 2 with 9 observations. The highest lag score was 4, which was observed once for the dataset of Hungary. The correlation between excess mortality and different harshness of NPI's was calculated. The correlation coefficient ranges from -0.3 to -0.39, indicating an overall low to medium correlation. The highest correlation was detected with stay-at-home requirements (-0.36), workplace closing (-0.37), and gathering restrictions (-0.39). In the final step, age-based correlations were established. The correlation ranged from 0.26 – 0.36, indicating an overall medium correlation. The lowest correlation can be seen in the youngest age group, 15-64 (correlation coefficient of 0.26), while the highest correlation of 0.36 can be seen in the 75-84 age group. Surprisingly the age group 85+ had a little lower correlation than the 75-84 age group. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: A stronger correlation between excess mortality and stringency index was detected in the countries with a higher death per capita. The two groups of intervention effectiveness were established: more effective (school closing, workplace closing, public event limitation, gathering restriction, and stay at home requirement) and less effective (public transport limitation, restriction on internal movement, international travel control, public information campaigns, protection of elderly campaigns). This suggests that NPI effectiveness depends on population size. In the age-group-based analysis, the correlation became stronger with the age increase, indicating nonpharmaceutical intervention effectiveness against high mortality in older adults.

The European emergence of Covid-19 has come to characterise a new kind of enemy for the EU, a cross border health threat which knows no borders and affect the EU’s health, economic, social and transport sectors indiscriminately. Therefore this thesis aims to explores the measures taken by the EU to respond to the outbreak of Covid-19. By using three European integration theories, neofunctionalism and liberal and new intergovernmentalism, different aspects behind the EU’s crisis response can be analysed and later put into evaluation in relation to the European integration project. It is found that, while facing initial challenges in solidarity, the EU has managed to present significant responses toward the pandemic. These are mostly based in the economic arena through the NGEU and the MFF for 2021-2027. Still, there are significant measures presented to enhance the capabilities of the EU’s current health framework, under the new EU4health-programme.

Emerging zoonoses have unique consequences for the animal health, public health and trade sectors. This study examined the links between policy. zoonoses, and risk in Zambia and assessed the feasibility of a World Organisation for Animal Health (OlE) risk analysis in informing risk management in this context. The research was a qualitative case study drawing on: in-depth interviews with key informants; informal interviews; documentary review and observation. Snowball sampling was used to select informants directly involved in avian (H5Nl) and human influenza policy development and/or livestock trade policy implementation at national level. A chronology of avian and human influenza policy development in Zambia over the period 2005-2009 was constructed. Policy process and interpretivist policy analysis theories guided analysis. In this resource-constrained setting, external international agendas were found to have considerable influence on policy. National stakeholders initially framed H5Nl as an imminent threat and largely animal health problem. This prioritized the involvement of health and agricultural actors in the policy process and excluded those from trade and other key sectors. H5Nl was a plausible threat to agriculture, and a potential threat to human health, but perceptions of risk presented real economic repercussions for the poultry industry. Despite challenges in coordinating the policy response, the policy process had tangible benefits for Zambia in terms of pandemic preparedness and for raising the profile of the previously underrecognised poultry industry. This study suggests the weighing of both local policy and ecological configurations in assessment of risk and the design of zoonotic disease mitigation policies. While feasible, the merits of an OlE risk analysis in informing policy development in this context would be enhanced by a careful consideration and inclusion of policy processes. An objective and discursive approach to analysis of risk, appropriately communicated to stakeholders, would improve collaboration in disease management across sectors.

Influenza presents many challenges to society, leading to severe impacts in terms of social, economic and health-care costs. To minimize these impacts, models for the spatial spread of influenza help us prepare and plan for epidemic/pandemic events. These models also increase our scientific understanding about the epidemic process and identify optimal mitigation strategies during such events. Given the human experience with past pandemics and severe seasonal epidemics, modeling studies will continue to be a useful tool for policy-makers in reducing the burden of influenza on society. I highlight two avenues of research which may enhance our understanding of the epidemic process and improve the use of models for setting and implementing policy.Validation remains limited and predictive validation is almost non-existent in complex simulation models of influenza spread. This is a serious concern because policy-makers use predictions from such models as inputs for making important decisions. Current models of influenza spread are coming under increased scrutiny for their lack of predictive ability, but it seems that no one has actually evaluated their predictive ability in the first place. To fill this gap in knowledge, I demonstrate the process of predictive validation by generalizing an individual-based model for the spread of influenza to the urban area of Montreal, Canada. Using this model and extensive data on several past epidemics, I show that the reliability and timing of several epidemic metrics depends on two important factors: the method of forecasting and the type of the epidemic metric which we want to forecast.Predictors of health disparities are not included in current models of influenza spread. This is despite an extensive literature showing that these predictors are related to burden of influenza in vulnerable subpopulations of society. Through formulating two different integrated models, I illustrate novel approaches to address this limitation. In the first model, I integrate social deprivation within an individual-based model for the spread of influenza. Using this model, I examine hypotheses about the relationship between social deprivation and influenza burden. In the second model, I integrate socioeconomic information in a metapopulation model. I develop a novel social-attributes gravity model to describe local-scale contact processes. I perform a theoretical analysis of this model to show the consequences of local-scale heterogeneity, in contact and susceptibility, on large-scale epidemic patterns. For both models, I show their practical application through evaluating vaccination strategies which make use of never-before-available data within complex and dynamic models of influenza spread.
L'influenza présente de nombreux défis pour la société, entre autres des conséquences sociales, économiques et sanitaires. Afin de minimiser les impacts de la propagation spatiale de l'influenza, certains modèles sont développés pour aider à préparer et planifier des épidémies et pandémies. Ces modèles augmentent aussi notre compréhension scientifique des processus d'épidémie et identifient les stratégies optimales d'atténuation de ces évènements. Étant donné l'expérience précédente des humains lors de pandémies et les dynamiques saisonnières de celles-ci, les études de modélisation continueront d'être un outil utile pour les politiciens afin de réduire le fardeau de l'influenza pour la société. Ici, je souligne deux axes de recherche qui peut améliorer notre compréhension du processus de l'épidémie et améliorer l'utilisation de modèles pour l'élaboration des politiques.La validation des modèles demeure limitée et la validation prévisible n'existe pas dans de modèles complexes de la propagation de l'influenza. Ce manque de validation est une grande préoccupation car les politiciens utilisent ces prévisions pour faire des décisions importantes. Les modèles actuels de la propagation de la grippe sont soumis à une surveillance accrue pour leur manque de capacité prédictive, mais il semble que personne ne sont effectivement évalué leur capacité prédictive en premier lieu. Pour combler cette lacune dans les connaissances. Je démontre le processus de validation prévisible en généralisant le modèle courant, basé sur l'individu dans la région urbaine de Montréal, Canada. J'utilise un grand jeu de données comportant plusieurs épidémies en plus de perturbations réelles pour démontrer que la méthode de prévision et la métrique du type d'épidémie peuvent avoir de grands enjeux sur le temps de détection et la fiabilité lorsque de telles estimées sont possibles.Les disparités de santé ne sont pas incluses dans les modèles courant de la répartition de l'influenza malgré le fait que la littérature démontre que les prédictions de celles-ci sont reliées au fardeau de l'influenza. Par la formulation de deux modèles intégraux différents, je démontre une nouvelle approche qui adresse cette limitation. Dans le premier modèle, j'intègre la privation sociale dans un modèle basé sur l'individu. En utilisant ce modèle, j'examine les hypothèses concernant le lien entre la privation sociale et le fardeau de l'influenza. Dans le deuxième modèle, j'intègre de l'information socioéconomique dans un modèle de métapopulations. Je développe un nouveau modèle gravitationnel d'attributs sociaux pour décrire l'état local des processus de contact. J'effectue une analyse théorique pour démontrer les conséquences de l'hétérogénéité à l'échelle locale, du contact et de la susceptibilité sur les patrons épidémiques à grande échelle. Pour les deux modèles, je démontre leur application pratique par rapport à l'évaluation des stratégies de vaccination. Ces stratégies utilisent des jeux de données complexes, jamais utilisés auparavant, et des modèles dynamiques de propagation de l'influenza.

Covid-19-pandemin drabbade hela världen från år 2019 och var ännu pågående under studiens genomförande. Många branscher påverkades av detta, där ibland hotellbranschen. Polisen i Malmö uppmärksammade hur brottsligheten på hotellen verkade ha förändrats under Covid-19-pandemin och önskade att detta undersöktes vidare. Genom kvalitativa intervjuer med ansvarig personal på sju hotell i Malmö studerades det hur hotellen upplevde att brottsligheten hade förändrats under Covid-19-pandemin och i sådana fall på vilket sätt. Vidare undersöktes vilken typ av brottslighet hotellen i huvudsak utsätts för och hur hotellens rutiner samt hur samverkan med polisen ser ut vid brottslighet. Samtliga hotell upplevde någon form av förändring men på olika vis. En del lyfte att kriminaliteten hade ökat medan andra menade att den hade minskat. Flera förklarade att nivån på brottsligheten antagligen var densamma som före Covid-19-pandemin men att de på grund av färre gäster och mer tid över för personalen enklare kunde uppmärksamma då något skedde. Gällande vilken brottslighet som var mest förekommande på hotellen var detta stöldbrott, bilinbrott, sexuella trakasserier, köp av sexuella tjänster, narkotikabrott och kortbedrägeri men även ordningsstörningar i form av fester, nedskräpning eller överförfriskade gäster. I de flesta fall fick receptionspersonal bedöma situationen då brott skedde på hotellen och kontakta vaktbolag, säkerhetsvakter eller polis. Från ett antal hotell uppkom även förslag på förbättringsområden angående samverkan med polisen samt hotellen emellan, trots att de redan upplevde den som god. Gällande samverkan mellan hotellen och polisen efterfrågades en direktlinje in till polisen likt Stockholm samt ett smidigare sätt att lämna anmälan om misstänkta brott. För samverkan hotellen emellan föreslogs en mail-slinga för att enklare kunna tipsa och varna varandra då situationer uppstår.
The Covid-19 pandemic has affected the majority of the world since 2019 and the pandemic's impact continues at the time of writing. Industries around the world were severely affected, among those are the hotel industry. The Police in Malmö noticed how crime in hotels seemed to have changed during the Covid-19 pandemic and requested for this to be examined further. Through qualitative interviews with seven hotels from Malmö City the perceived change in crime at the hotels during the Covid-19 pandemic were studied. Furthermore, it was also examined what type of crime the hotels are mainly exposed to and what the hotels' routines and cooperation with the police look like in the event of a crime. All of the hotels experienced some sort of change, but in different ways. Some mentioned how the crime rate had gone up, while others said that it had gone down. Several of the hotels explained that the crime rate probably was at the same level as before the Covid-19 pandemic but that they, because of the fact that they had a smaller number of guests, were able to more easily notice when something happened. Regarding which crime was most common in the hotels, the results showed that it was theft, car theft, sexual harassment, purchase of sexual services, drug offenses and card fraud, but also disturbances in the form of parties, littering or over-refreshed guests. In most of the cases it was up to the staff in the reception to determine the level of the situation and then contact the security company, the security guards or the police. From a number of the hotels some suggestions on how to improve the collaboration between the hotels and the Police but also between the hotels came in, even though they described the cooperation as good. Regarding cooperation between the hotels and the police, a direct line to the police was proposed, a similar method to the ways in Stockholm, as well as a more flexible way of reporting suspected crimes. For collaboration between the hotels, an email loop was proposed to make it easier to tip and warn each other when situations arise.

Bakgrund: Flyktingar och migranter tillhör en av Europas högriskpopulationer, vilka lever under utmanade förhållanden, med eller utan pandemier. Det finns begränsad kunskap om situationen i flyktingläger under Covid-19 pandemin. Syftet: Att undersöka hjälparbetares erfarenheter från Covid-19 preventionsarbetet i Moria, Europas största flyktingläger. Metod: Semistrukturerade intervjuer genomfördes med sex hjälparbetare i Moria, under våren 2021. Intervjuerna genomfördes i person eller via videosamtal, varade mellan 42-79 minuter, spelades in, transkriberades, och analyserades med innehållsanalys. Resultat: Analysen mynnade ut tre kategorier; Bristande grundförutsättningar, I motvind lyfter draken och Sociokulturella svårigheter, som sammanlagt innehöll åtta underkategorier. Kategorierna skildrar ett bortglömt hörn av Europa. Lägret är överbefolkat, antalet hjälparbetare är underdimensionerade liksom utrustning och stödet från ansvariga myndigheter. Detta till trots, gjorde de sitt yttersta för att följa Världshälsoorganisationens rekommendationer. Samtidigt hanterades stigma riktad mot invånarna i lägret som begränsade tillgång till vård och behandling. Sammantaget bildade kategorierna ett underliggande tema; Prevention i dubbel motvind, som illustrerar hur hjälparbetarna under redan bristande grundförutsättningar kämpade för att försöka lindra förödande konsekvenser av pandemin. Slutsats: Många faktorer försvårade Covid-19 preventionsarbetet i Moria. En djupgående, strukturell problematik skildras där avsaknad av stöd och resurser var av central betydelse. Å andra sidan, visade hjälparbetarna på stor vilja och engagemang att driva ett proaktivt och outtröttligt preventionsarbete, en kamp i motvind.

Betyg i Ladok 210601.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--York University, 1997. Graduate Programme in Political Science.
Typescript. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 281-297). Also available on the Internet. MODE OF ACCESS via web browser By entering the following URL: http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/yorku/fullcit?pNQ27310.

學校停課在世界各國的流感大流行應對方案中常被列為一項社區緩疫措施，而這項措施亦在2009年H1N1流感大流行中被廣泛地使用。然而，這項緩疫措施經常被質疑是否恰當，原因是因為停課會對教育構成重大的影響，而且過往的流行病學硏究亦表示這項緩疫措施不一定有效。本論文硏究學校停課對2009年H1N1流感大流行在香港首5個月疫情中降低大流行流感傳播的效能。
在香港，在該大流行流感病毒於2009年4月在美國被發現後，香港政府實施了控疫措施(containment phase measures)，並開始對該流感大流行進行監測。為了判定大流行是否已在香港內蔓延，衛生防護中心設定了一個報告準則來讓本地醫生報告疑似大流行流感感染個案，並為每個懷疑個案作確診測試及為每個確診個案追溯感染源頭。當大流行流感在6月開始在香港內蔓延時，香港政府實施了緩疫措施(mitigation phase measures)。在緩疫措施底下，帶有流感病症的病人求診於指定流感診所和公共醫院急症室會被測試是否感染大流行流感，而停課措施亦在此時開始實行去減低大流行流感的傳播。停課措施一直維持至7月直至暑假開始，並經修改後於9月開學時繼續實行。在9月，鑑於已不再需要對流感大流行進行監測，對懷疑感染個案進行確診測試的政策止於該月下旬。確診個案中記錄了的病人資料，與及由學校停課和暑假所引起的學期變化，為這課題提供了一個理想硏究的機會。
在2009年的5月至9月，一共確診了27,687宗大流行流感個案。在確診個案中，所有個案都記錄了確診者的年歲和確診日期，而88%確診者提供了一個可定位的住宅地址。為了觀察學校停課的緩疫效果，本硏究定義了5個社會經濟年齡級別(socio-economic age classes) (當中包括有小學生和中學生)，並繪製了年齡級別與地域特定的疫情曲線(age-class-and-district-specific epidemic curves)。所有的疫情曲線在大流行流感在6月開始在香港蔓延後均穩步上升，而在屬於小學生和中學生的疫情曲線中能看到一個不尋常的上升出現在9月新學年開始時，意味著中小學生在學校的活動提升了大流行流感在他們之間的傳播。
先前，學校停課對減低2009年H1N1流感大流行在香港的傳播已被Wu et. al (2010a)進行了調查。透過使用一個具年齡結構的SIR模型(age-structured SIR model)來分析收集至8月27日的監測數據，該硏究表示流感大流行的傳播在暑假開始時減低了25%。在這研究中，我應用了Wu et. al (2010a)的方法來分析整個監測期間所收集的數據。在發現到該數學模型不能準確地擬合附加的監測數據後，我在該模型添加了兩個傳播特徵(當中包含兒童和成人之間的傳染在學校停課期間增加)去更準確地代表現實中的疫情。我的硏究顯示，學校停課雖然降低了兒童的感染率，但卻增加了成年人的感染率，令整體傳播在暑假開始時只減低了7.6%。這硏究結果表示，在將來的流感大流行中，封閉學校不大可能延遲流感大流行疫情至一個可令疫苗產生作用的程度，而且封閉學校可能會增加成人的感染率，從而有可能導致社會運作出現更混亂的情況。
School closure is often included in national pandemic influenza response plans as a community mitigation measure and it was widely applied in Pandemic (H1N1) 2009. However, the appropriateness of this intervention is often questioned, as school closure causes major disruption to the education system and past epidemiological studies reveal this intervention is not necessarily effective. The present thesis evaluates the effect of school closure in mitigating transmission of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in Hong Kong in the initial 5 months of the pandemic.
In Hong Kong, following identification of the pandemic virus in US in April 2009, the government implemented containment phase measures and began surveillance on the pandemic. The Centre for Health Protection established a reporting criteria for doctors to report suspected cases of pandemic infection for laboratory confirmation, and the source of infection of confirmed cases was traced to determine if the pandemic was spreading locally. When local transmission of the pandemic began in June, the government began mitigation phase measures, in which patients with influenza-like- illness seeking treatment at designated flu clinics and public hospital emergency departments were tested for pandemic infection, and school closure was implemented for pandemic mitigation. The school closure policy lasted until summer holiday commenced in July, and was revised and continued in September when the new school season started. At the end of September, in view of pandemic surveillance was no longer useful, laboratory testing for suspected pandemic cases was halted. Patient demographic data collected from confirmed pandemic cases, together with temporal changes in school session induced by school closure and summer holiday, provided an ideal opportunity for investigation.
From May through September 2009, a total of 27,687 pandemic cases were confirmed, in which the age and confirmation date were recorded in all cases, and 88% provided a locatable residential address. To visualise the mitigative effect of school closure, 5 socio-economic age classes (which include primary and secondary school-aged children) were defined, and age-class-and-district-specific epidemic curves were constructed. All epidemic curves rose steadily after local transmission began in June, and an unusual upsurge in the epidemic curve of primary and secondary school-aged children is observed when schools resumed session in September, suggesting school session facilitated transmission amongst them.
Previously, the effect of school closure in mitigating Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 transmission in Hong Kong was investigated in Wu et al. (2010a). By analysing surveillance data collected as of 27 August with an age-structured susceptible- infectious-recovered (SIR) model, the study reported transmission was reduced by 25% when summer holiday commenced. In this study, I adapted the methodology in Wu et al. (2010a) to analyse data collected in the entire surveillance period. Upon observing the model fitted poorly to the additional data, I added 2 transmission features to the model (which include increased transmission between children and adults during school closure) to better represent the epidemic in reality. My analysis revealed that while school closure reduced incidence in children, it increased incidence in adults, leading to a reduction in overall transmission by only 7.6% when summer holiday started. The findings of this study suggest that school closure in a future influenza pandemic is unlikely to be able to delay the pandemic for vaccine to arrive in time, and that implementing this intervention may increase incidence in adults, which may lead to causing more disruption on the functioning of society.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Chau, Kwan Long.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 148-154).
Abstracts also in Chinese.
Chapter Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1
Chapter 1.1 --- Influenza --- p.2
Chapter 1.2 --- Public health response to pandemic influenza & School closure --- p.8
Chapter 1.3 --- Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 --- p.13
Chapter 1.4 --- Hong Kongs response to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 --- p.17
Chapter 1.5 --- Data and Research Objective --- p.24
Chapter Chapter 2 --- Descriptive and Exploratory Analysis of Surveillance Data --- p.31
Chapter 2.1 --- Introduction --- p.31
Chapter 2.2 --- Methodology --- p.36
Chapter 2.3 --- Results --- p.40
Chapter 2.4 --- Discussion --- p.57
Chapter Chapter 3 --- Evaluating the effect of School Closure by Modelling --- p.62
Chapter 3.1 --- Introduction --- p.62
Chapter 3.2 --- Methodology --- p.90
Chapter 3.3 --- Results --- p.98
Chapter 3.4 --- Discussion --- p.105
Chapter Chapter 4 --- Discussion --- p.108
Chapter 4.1 --- Study Findings --- p.108
Chapter 4.2 --- Study Limitations --- p.109
Chapter 4.3 --- Comments on using school closure in future influenza pandemics --- p.111
Appendices --- p.116
Bibliography --- p.148

abstract: Public risk communication (i.e. public emergency warning) is an integral component of public emergency management. Its effectiveness is largely based on the extent to which it elicits appropriate public response to minimize losses from an emergency. While extensive studies have been conducted to investigate individual responsive process to emergency risk information, the literature in emergency management has been largely silent on whether and how emergency impacts can be mitigated through the effective use of information transmission channels for public risk communication. This dissertation attempts to answer this question, in a specific research context of 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak in Arizona. Methodologically, a prototype agent-based model is developed to examine the research question. Along with the specific disease spread dynamics, the model incorporates individual decision-making and response to emergency risk information. This simulation framework synthesizes knowledge from complexity theory, public emergency management, epidemiology, social network and social influence theory, and both quantitative and qualitative data found in previous studies. It allows testing how emergency risk information needs to be issued to the public to bring desirable social outcomes such as mitigated pandemic impacts. Simulation results generate several insightful propositions. First, in the research context, emergency managers can reduce the pandemic impacts by increasing the percent of state population who use national TV to receive pandemic information to 50%. Further increasing this percent after it reaches 50% brings only marginal effect in impact mitigation. Second, particular attention is needed when emergency managers attempt to increase the percent of state population who believe the importance of information from local TV or national TV, and the frequency in which national TV is used to send pandemic information. Those measures may reduce the pandemic impact in one dimension, while increase the impact in another. Third, no changes need to be made on the percent of state population who use local TV or radio to receive pandemic information, and the frequency in which either channel is used for public risk communication. This dissertation sheds light on the understanding of underlying dynamics of human decision-making during an emergency. It also contributes to the discussion of developing a better understanding of information exchange and communication dynamics during a public emergency and of improving the effectiveness of public emergency management practices in a dynamic environment.
Dissertation/Thesis
Ph.D. Public Administration 2012

The year 2020 has so far stood completely under the influence of Corona. The virus was first detected in China in late 2019, and spread all over the globe over the coming months. Nearly everyone was, and is, affected. People were afraid of getting infected and limited all sort of social interaction. Many countries implemented shutdowns with the goal of reducing the spread of the virus and saving lives. While the virus has spread, the world have experienced the severe recession in a long time. Beyond economics, Corona is present in every aspect of our daily life. On the one hand, there has been a tremendous number of touching examples of care for people at risk, and support for the parts of the population who are most affected by the consequences of the epidemic. On the other hand, some people deny the severity of the virus, question the need for social distancing and protest against public health measures. This work aims to summarise the economic literature as of June 2020 on the trade-off between saving lives and livelihoods. The authors wrote it during a Bachelor Seminar, while the whole world learned simultaneously about COVID-19.