Dissertationen zum Thema „Nordic Stock markets“

This study examines the economic impacts of three large-scale terrorist attacks on the Nordic capital markets. Past research has shown evidence of the increasing resilience of the US capital markets towards terrorist attacks. Hereby the Nordic regions capital markets were studied and compared with the US's capital markets, in an intention to find evidence whether or not the same development can be observed in the Nordic countries. The results implied that the Nordic markets did not absorb the shocks as well as the US markets. The analysis was taken into an industry level on the Swedish stock market to get a deeper insight of the impacts of such events. The results indicated the Energy sectors good ability to absorb terrorist attacks in terms of negative abnormal returns and time of recovery. The Financing sector seemed to be the most sensitive sector, since its performance was the weakest in terms of market recovery.

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the location of buying stocks in a Nordic cross-listed company matters in terms of 1) earning abnormal returns, or 2) gaining in optimizing the amount spent by buying the specific stock cheap. Nowadays, markets are becoming more integrated and if we believe in the efficient market hypothesis, prices of the same class of stocks paying the same dividend annually, of an MNC must be the same irrespective of the stock exchange it is listed upon. Though efficient market hypothesis exists in theory, market imperfection is a reality. All the Nordic (Swedish, Finnish, Norwegian, Danish and Icelandic) firms listed on foreign stock exchanges in addition to their home market have been included in the sample. In fact, this sample represents 100% of the population. The daily prices of cross-listed stocks have been analyzed and conclusions have been drawn based on the mean returns and mean prices along with Wilcoxon Signed-Rank test statistics. The data have been analyzed over the last ten years capturing the recent economic cycle. The whole period has also been divided into three sub-periods to establish comparisons with the whole period. This paper reports that even though returns on cross-listed stocks are statistically same over all periods, prices of the stocks vary according to the location of listing. That is, investors can buy from a stock exchange where the specific stock is underpriced thereby decreasing the amount invested in absolute term and optimizing the amount spent if not the return. The returns and prices have analyzed using the local currency of the MNC’s country of origin and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). No considerable differences on the returns or pattern of price movements have been observed while using two currencies.

Financial markets have many different key actors, but one of the most important ones are the financial analysts. They are considered as experts in gathering and disseminating the information that firms produce, to those that seek it, such as stock recommendations and reports on firms. Related to this is a growing interest in society toward disclosures in regards of CSR as well as ESG. There has been considerable discussion in academia of whether or not CSR can be considered to be value relevant. This is a question which relate to both institutional and legitimacy perspectives in terms of theory, but also discussions in regards to agency and stakeholder theory as well:   Has value relevance of CSR disclosures increased in stock recommendations for the Nordic markets?   Thereby, the main purpose of this thesis is to find out whether or not there has been a shifting view of CSR over time, which would be evidenced in an increasing legitimization of CSR in terms of an increasing value-relevance to financial analysts. This would also be related to a shifting institutional logic, whereby it would be possible to relate to a shift in the view of the firm and its role in society. This is both looked at purely from the starting point of the dataset to the end point, but also for two different periods of time, so as to test if there is a different view of the issue after the financial crisis. In addition to this main purpose, this thesis furthermore sets out to answer whether CSR is value-relevant or not in different subsegments, such as nations, industries and the different types of recommendations that exist.   To answer the research question, an objectivist and positivist stance is taken, which subsequently leads the authors to utilize quantitative methods and statistical analysis to the data. Here, different panel models are fitted to the data to account effects that exist within it. To explain the findings, a theoretical framework is built upon three different levels: societal, firm and individual level. Here, on the societal level theories such as institutional theory as well as legitimacy theory are dealt with. On the firm level, agency theory and stakeholder theory as well as theoretical views of CSR forms the basis, and the individual level deals with theory related to the financial analyst.   In looking at the results and the analysis, one cannot draw the conclusion that there has been a shifting view of the value-relevance of CSR. Financial analysts appear to not find it value-relevant in issuing their stock recommendations, except for two cases: namely in terms of the industrial sector Basic Materials and the Buy recommendations. In terms of Basic Materials, it appears to be value-relevant in a positive manner. In regards to the Buy recommendation, it appears to have a negative effect on the value-relevance. All in all, this thesis cannot find evidence for a value-relevance of CSR to financial analysts in the Nordic markets. Essentially, the view of it appears to be pessimistic.

The financial crisis has made the stock markets a very turbulent place. Investors have therefore begun searching for stable and profitable investments. Nordic real estate has for decades steadily increased in value and the stocks of real estate companies are said to be less risky than the market. This has led to a view of them being a safe haven for risk adverse investors. Very few empirical studies have been done on how these supposedly safe stocks actually behave in the Nordic countries. The purpose of this study is hence to investigate how these real estate companies stocks perform. The method employed is deductive and quantitative.One part of the research is to test whether or not the stocks are more profitable than the overall market. Additionally, motivated by previous research on market efficiency, this paper looks into if any predictable patterns for the real estate stocks returns can be found. In other words, if historical returns can be used to predict future returns. Thirdly this research paper looks into how risky the real estate stocks are compared to the market. For the last part of research, an examination on whether the usage of CAPM as a return calculator is appropriate for real estate stocks in the Nordic countries. The statistical tool SPSS and Microsoft Excel has been used to examine the relationships between the variables. The paper has used time series regression to find beta values and alpha values for risk assessments and tests of CAPM, and autocorrelation tests to determine market efficiency, or more precisely random walk.The research is are done on all real estate stocks on the Swedish, Finnish, Danish and Norwegian markets, a total of 31, over a time period of 10 years, between 2003 and 2013 on daily, weekly and monthly data. The result of the first part was that the real estate stock returns in general were not more profitable than the overall market. This research also found significant predictability of future returns through historical data on a daily basis, and some signs on a weekly basis while no predictability on a monthly basis. The result of the third part of the research is that the risk levels for the real estate stocks are different and in general much lower than the market risk. Lastly the test of CAPM shows no significant difference between the expected returns and the actual observed returns.

This study has applied a geographical perspective with the ambition of evaluating the presence of the Sell in May effect, January effect and monthly anomalies in the Nordic stock markets. In extension the study examines the relationship between corporate size and the returns of calendar anomalies. The study has conducted statistical tests based on Newey-West regressions as well as a Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model. The findings suggest that the Sell in May and January are present in the Nordic region and partially abide by theory and results of previous research. The findings suggest that the Sell in May and January effect are independent, however, tendencies when the January effect has a considerable influence on the Sell in May effect are also evident. Additionally, the “April Effect” is an unexpected outlier with positive excess returns that was identified through this study.

This thesis examines the impact of earnings announcements on the stock return performance. Most literature regarding this topic is related to the US market. We follow 40 of the largest and most liquid stocks on the virtual OMX Nordic Exchange from 2010 to 2012. In this research paper, we present the theoretical framework that gives an overview of the possible research areas, and provide empirical evidence of the repercussion of the earnings announcements on stock returns. We use the event study methodology to conduct this thesis. It is a standard approach established by Fama et al. (1969). It has been used in a variety of researches for gauging the effect of new information on the market value of a security. As we expected good news and bad news to have different reactions on the stock return performances, we have split our data in good news and bad news. To differentiate good news from bad news, we measure analysts’ forecast error. It consists in subtracting the earnings per share (EPS) of the analysts’ consensus forecast from the reported EPS of the same year. The analysis is composed of three different subdivisions: the study of the abnormal return during an event window of 17 days, the cumulative abnormal return during this event window, stock price behavior from growth stocks and from value stocks. Our findings show that stock behavior gradually responds to the earnings announcement. The stock reactions that appear within pre-event window may indicate information leakage. Our results describe most average abnormal returns as statistically insignificant during the event window. Earnings information has a lower impact on the stock market. We also find that the effect of positive earnings surprise on stock price lasts longer than that of negative earnings surprise. Stocks from OMX Nordic 40 index have a stable reaction on negative earnings surprise. As a conclusion, we highlight three points. Earning interim and annual earning information disclosure were unable to influence the stock market effectively, and therefore could not fully reflect the changes on the stock price. Investors can get the abnormal returns by using this earnings information during the whole event window.

Researchers have dedicated considerable work to explaining components to excess stock market returns. Recently, Atanasov et al. (2020) managed to explain some of this variance in the US stock markets with a cyclical consumption variable. We have applied their model into the Nordic countries and compared it to a second model containing additional control variables. From the analysis, we find that cyclical consumption is able to explain excess stock market returns across five different h-quarter ahead excess returns. However, results are not consistent across countries. The extended model improves the explanatory capabilities of the model only up to two-year ahead excess returns. The cyclical consumption measure is also able to predict excess returns better than an historical average model. The findings in this paper are robust to out-of-sample predictability analysis and to a different measure of consumption and returns.

The purpose of the present research paper was three fold. First, determine if there is a trade interdependence between the United States and Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and Baltic States). Second, determine if there is correlation between the respective equity markets. Third, determine if the changes in the trade relations lead to the changes in stock market correlations. The hypothesis of the project was that weaker trade relations between two countries would lead to lower correlation between their stock markets, providing beneficial opportunities for portfolio diversification. The overall objective is to ascertain if Nordic markets are good targets to hedge portfolio risk for U.S. investors, and if the risks of investing in these markets would be rewarded by the higher returns.

The efficient market hypothesis states that stock prices fully reflect availablei nformation and that stocks thereby always are priced correctly. Hence, it should be impossible to predict future prices in the stock market, and investors will gain no benefits from engaging themselves into historical analyzes. This is a quantitative study which aim to investigate if there is any difference in market efficiency in Nordic stock markets during and after the financial crisis of 2008. By applying various statistical methods, such as unitroot tests, autocorrelation tests and runs test on the returns from each country’s leading market index, the study tries to find evidence for or against the weak form of market efficiency. The study finds evidence both for and against weak form market efficiency but concludes that there is no distinct difference in market efficiency during and after the financial crisis.

Dividend policy has significant impact on the company's capital market, in particular the dynamics of the price of its shares. Dividends represent cash income of shareholders and to some extent, signal them about success of the firm they have invested. From that point of view dividend policy has crucial impact on investment decisions.

Numbers of valuation models based on dividend payouts exist in the financial theory and they imply importance of dividends in making investment decisions. Alternatively some authors argue that role of the dividends is overestimated, as investors do not separate dividends and capital earnings. I believe that dividend policy has broad influence not only on share valuation, but also on capital structure of the company and its stock market liquidity.

Study intended to discover if dividend payouts and future earnings can be predicted based on stock market liquidity and capital structure. I have analysed 72 companies associated with Nordic information technologies market and tried to find main characteristics of dividend policy adopted in those companies. I have divided my research question into three parts and studied hypotheses which are associated with the research question.

I found relationship of dividend policies with future earnings growth power, firm capital structure and market liquidity. As a result of my study I have observed financial statements data and obtained the following outcome: (1) with stable dividend policy, payout ratio is positively related to the future earnings growth rate (2) companies that have less liquid stock markets are more likely to pay dividends (3) companies with low leverage ratios have more probability of paying dividends. Also I have found that historically low payout ratio is harbinger of low or even negative earnings growth rates.

I believe that based on findings mentioned above, effective investment policy could be created. For the investor who favours to invest in company with high earnings growth perspectives and receive high dividends in the future, results of the study could be interesting. According to the results of the research, for “dividend preferring” investor, funds should be invested in the company with constantly high payout ratio, low stock market liquidity and debt-to-equity ratio below 1. In that case the probability of meeting investment expectations would be much higher.

The interest in the stock market has increased in the last couple of years whereas those who invest use all kinds of different strategies, or none at all. Some strategies are quite complicated and time consuming, while others are easier to replicate. The Magic Formula and Piotroski’s F- Score are two of the more well-known investment strategies which have been developed during the 2000s and are relatively easy to follow. The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of the two investment strategies and if they can create excess return in Denmark, Finland and Norway. In addition, the results will be compared to an earlier study made on the Swedish market, for the sake of discovering any differences between the Nordic countries when investing according to these strategies. The results displayed that both strategies outperformed the market indexes most years and that their accumulated returns were far greater than the market indexes between 2012-2021. Out of the Nordic countries, the portfolios in accordance with The Magic Formula and Piotroski’s F-Score both performed best in Norway. In all the three countries, Piotroski’s F-Score was the better-performing strategy over these nine years regarding accumulated return. However, the results only showed statistical differences between the strategies in Norway and Denmark. Regarding differences between the countries, including Sweden, the results indicate that there are only statistical differences in accumulated return between Norway and Sweden concerning The Magic Formula portfolios during 2012-2020. On the other hand, the results for the F-Score portfolios showed statistical differences in accumulated return between all countries except between Denmark and Finland.
Under senare år har intresset för aktiemarknaden ökat allt mer, där aktörerna använder sig av en mängd olika sorters strategier, eller ingen alls. Vissa strategier kan anses vara mer komplicerade och tidskrävande medan andra är enklare att följa och förstå. Den Magiska Formeln och Piotroskis F-Score är två av de mer välkända investeringsstrategierna som båda har blivit utvecklade under 2000-talet och är relativt enkla att replikera. Syftet med denna studie är att jämföra prestationen för dessa två investeringsstrategier samt om de kan generera någon överavkastning i Danmark, Finland och Norge. Resultaten kommer dessutom jämföras med en tidigare studie gjord på den svenska marknaden, för att hitta eventuella skillnader mellan de nordiska länderna när investeringar skett enligt dessa strategier. Studiens resultat visade på att båda strategierna överträffar marknadens index flera gånger under tidsperioden samt att dess ackumulerade avkastning var högre än marknadens index mellan 2012–2021. Utav alla nordiska länder presterade portföljerna baserade på Den Magiska Formeln och Piotroskis F-Score bäst i Norge, och för samtliga tre länder presterade Piotroskis F-Score bäst av strategierna gällande ackumulerad avkastning under dessa nio år. Resultaten visade dock enbart statistiska skillnader mellan strategierna i Danmark och Norge. Samtidigt visar resultatet på statistiska skillnader för ackumulerad avkastning mellan länderna Norge och Sverige gällande portföljerna enligt Den Magiska Formeln under 2012–2020. Samma period visar även på statistiska skillnader mellan alla länder förutom Danmark och Finland gällande portföljerna enligt Piotroskis F-Score.

Titel: En studie av den positiva marknadsreaktionen vid VD-byten i norden. Nivå: Examensarbete på Grundnivå (Kandidatexamen) i ämnet företagsekonomi Författare: Malin Ahlqvist och Niklas Örn Handledare: Jan Svanberg Datum: 2019 – juni Syfte: Syftet med denna studie var att analysera hur den nordiska marknaden reagerar på tillkännagivandet av en ny VD samt att analysera hur faktorerna; kön, ålder samt rekryteringskrets kan påverka denna reaktion. Metod: Studien har en positivistisk forskningsfilosofi med en deduktiv utgångspunkt. Studien tillämpar en eventstudie, vilket således förknippas med en kvantitativ forskningsmetod. Resultat & slutsats: Studiens resultat visade en positiv marknadsreaktion i Norden i samband med tillkännagivandet av ett VD-byte. Studien visade även en positiv marknadsreaktion för både kvinnor och män. Vidare tyder studien på att marknadsreaktionen är positiv i Sverige och Finland respektive negativ i Danmark och Norge. Marknadsreaktionen för män under medianålder var positiv medans reaktionen för män över medianåldern var negativ, marknadsreaktionen för kvinnor baserat på ålder är motsatta. Studien visade även att det fanns en positiv reaktion då den tillträdande VD:n är internt rekryterad samt en negativ reaktion då den tillträdande VD:n är externt rekryterad. Vissa delar av resultatet var dock inte signifikanta, det gick därför inte att utesluta att vissa delar av resultatet är slumpmässigt. Examensarbetets bidrag: Detta examensarbete bidrog till att fylla det forskningsgap som fanns gällande marknadens reaktion vid VD-byten relaterade till ålder, kön, rekryteringskrets samt ett jämförande nordiskt perspektiv. Förslag till fortsatt forskning: Studien visade vid flera tillfällen en signifikant reaktion dagen före själva tillkännagivandet av VD-bytet, detta ansåg vi vore ett intressant att fortsätta undersöka. Vi skulle med intresse ta del av en studie vilken presenterar en förklaring till denna signifikanta reaktion. Ytterligare tre förslag på fortsatt forskning presenteras i studien.
Title: A study of the positive market reaction to CEO changes in the Nordic region. Level: Student thesis, final assignment for Bachelor Degree in Business Administration  Authors: Malin Ahlqvist and Niklas Örn Supervisor: Jan Svanberg Date: 2019 - June Aim: The purpose of this study is to analyze how the Scandinavian market reacts to the announcement of a new CEO and to analyze how the factors gender, age and recruitment method can affect this reaction. Method: The study has a positivistic research philosophy with a deductive basis. The study applies an Event study and is thus associated with a quantitative research method. Result & Conclusions: The results of the study indicate a positive market reaction in Scandinavia at the announcement of a CEO change. The study also indicates a positive market reaction for both women and men. Furthermore, the study indicate that the market reaction is positive in Sweden and Finland as well as negative in Denmark and Norway. The market reaction for men under median age is positive while the reaction for men over median age is negative, the market reaction for women based on age is opposite to men. The study indicates that there is a positive reaction when the incoming CEO is internally recruited and a negative reaction when the incoming CEO is externally recruited. However, some parts of the results are not significant, therefore it cannot be ruled out that certain parts of the results are random. Contribution of the thesis: This thesis contributes to fill the research gap that exists regarding the market reaction to CEO changes related to age, gender, recruitment method and a comparative Scandinavian perspective. Suggestions for future research: This study shows on several occasions a significant market reaction the day before the actual announcement date of the CEO change, we believe a study to further study the reason behind this result would be of interest. Two more suggestions for further research are presented in the study.

Examensarbete, Civilekonomprogrammet, Ekonomihögskolan vid Linnéuniversitetet Författare: Gustav Johannesson och Martin Westport Handledare: Andreas Stephan Medbedömare: Anna Stafsudd Titel: Sambandet mellan Corporate Social Performance och finansiell risk - En kvantitativ studie som undersöker nordiska företag Bakgrund: Företags sociala ansvar har ständigt funnits på företagsagendan under senaste åren efter ökade globala utmaningar och större påtryckningar från intressenter. Man kan se allt större risker som är kopplade till företags hållbarhetsarbete. Med bakgrund till detta finns det ett stort intresse och en uppåtgående trend kring hållbara investeringar där Norden är ledande inom området. Syfte: Studiens syfte är att förklara sambandet mellan Corporate Social Performance, både på en sammanslagen och individuell nivå, och finansiell risk. Metod: Genom den deduktiva forskningsansatsen och den kvantitativa forskningsstrategin som är baserad på paneldata testar författarna sina hypoteser. Författarna bygger sina hypoteser på intressentteorin och riskhanteringsteorin som testas med ett nordiskt urval på 144 företag under tidsperioden 2002-2016. Slutsats: Studiens resultat visar att det finns ett negativt samband mellan Corporate Social Performance och finansiell risk. Det finns även ett negativt samband mellan företags sociala prestationer och finansiell risk. Detta är i linje med författarnas förväntningar. Däremot visar resultatet inga samband mellan företags miljömässiga och styrningsmässiga prestationer och deras finansiella risk.
Degree Project, The Business Administration and Economics Programme, School of Business and Economics at Linnaeus University Authors: Gustav Johannesson and Martin Westport Supervisor: Andreas Stephan Co-assessor: Anna Stafsudd Title: The relationship between Corporate Social Performance and Financial Risk - A quantitative study that examines Nordic companies Background: Corporate Social Responsibility has been on the corporate agenda in recent years following increased global challenges and greater pressure from stakeholders. One can see more risks associated with corporate sustainability. This has led to a great interest globally and an upward trend in Socially Responsible Investing where the Nordic region is at the leading edge. Purpose: The purpose of the study is to explain the relationship between Corporate Social Performance, both at a combined and an individual level, and financial risk. Method: Through the deductive research approach and the quantitative research strategy that is based on panel data, the authors test their hypotheses. The authors base their hypotheses on stakeholder theory and risk management theory and test them with a Nordic sample of 144 companies over the period 2002-2016. Conclusion: The study results show that there is a negative relationship between Corporate Social Performance and financial risk. There is also a negative relationship between social performance and financial risk. This is in line with the authors’ expectations. However, the results show no relationship between companies’ environmental and governance performance and their financial risk.

Cette thèse examine (i) l'impact du secteur bancaire et des marchés financiers sur la croissance économique, (ii) l'effet de la qualité institutionnelle sur la détermination du développement financier, (iii) Comment la qualité des institutions affecté la relation entre le développement financier et la croissance économique. A cette fin, nous construisons un indice de qualité institutionnel pour les pays de la région MENA. Appliquant la méthode d'estimation des moindres carrés généralisés (MCG) pour un échantillon de 18 pays de la région MENA pour la période de 1984-2007 nous constatons que ni le secteur bancaire ni les marchés financiers ne contribuent à la croissance économique et qu'ils l'affectent même négativement. Adoptant l'approche d'estimation sur données de panel et celle des variables instrumentales (IV) nos résultats montrent l'importance de l'environnement institutionnel dans la détermination du développement financier de la région MENA. En outre, nos résultats montrent que la qualité des institutions a un important effet dans la relation entre développement financier et croissance économique. Plus précisément, elle permet d'atténuer l'effet négatif du développement financier sur la croissance économique. Par conséquent, nos résultats fournissent une évidence empirique, que pour que le développement financier puisse contribuer à la croissance économique, les pays de la région MENA doivent avoir un certain niveau de développement institutionnel. Examinant l'effet non-linéaire de la qualité des institutions sur la relation entre développement financier et croissance économique nos résultats montrent que la relation entre développement du secteur bancaire et croissance économique présente la forme du "U-inversé", par contre cette forme n'est pas observée lorsque les marchés financiers sont considérés
This thesis examines (i) the impact of banks and stock markets on economic growth (ii) the effect of institutional quality in determining financial development and (iii) how institutional quality affects the finance-growth nexus in the MENA region. To this end, we construct a yearly institutional index for MENA countries. Applying the generalized method- of-moments (GMM) estimators developed for dynamic panel data for a sample of 18 MENA countries over 1984-2007 period, we find that both bank and stock market development are unimportant or even harmful for economic growth. Considering both a panel data and the instrumental variable (IV) approaches of estimation, our results outline the importance of institutional quality in determining financial development in MENA region. Moreover, our results show that institutional quality affects the finance growth nexus in MENA countries. In fact, it mitigates the negative effect of financial development on economic growth. Therefore, our results provide empirical evidence that in order for financial development to contribute to economic growth, MENA countries must possess certain level of institutional quality. Examining the non-linear effect of institutional quality on the finance-growth nexus, our results show that banking sector development and growth exhibit an inverted-U shaped relationship. However, we do not find the same pattern in the stock market-growth relationship