Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Meat tastes“

To evaluate the taste of ordinary muscle from white-fleshed fish, we used GC-MS metabolomic analysis to characterise the compounds therein, and correlated the obtained data with taste measurements from an electronic tongue. Prediction models using orthogonal partial least squares were produced for different taste attributes, and the primary metabolic components correlated with the taste attributes were identified. Clear differences were observed in the component profiles for different fish species. Using an electronic tongue, differences in tastes were noted among the fish species in terms of sourness, acidic bitterness, umami and saltiness. The obtained correlations allowed the construction of good taste prediction models, especially for sourness, acidic bitterness and saltiness. Compounds such as phosphoric acid, lactic acid and creatinine were found to be highly correlated with some taste attributes. Phosphoric acid in particular showed the highest variable important for prediction (VIP) scores in many of the taste prediction models, and it is therefore a candidate marker to evaluate the tastes of white-fleshed fish.

Sensory characteristics of meat from different animal types, including cattle (Angus and Brangus) and buffalo raised at pasture, and information on socio-demographic determinants of consumer preference were evaluated. Samples of roasted rib eye were cut and served in a disordered and monadic manner to 188 untrained tasters. A nine-point hedonic scale was used to assess odor, color, tenderness, succulence and overall appearance. Analysis of variance was carried out using the GLM procedure of SAS®, considering animal type and socio-demographic characteristics as fixed effects and using the LSMEANS procedure for multiple mean comparisons. Differences (P < 0.001) between animal types were observed only for tenderness, with Brangus (7.02) and buffalo (6.82) meat being superior to Angus (6.25). Regardless of meat origin, age, income, smoking and place of purchase affected the perceived attributes (P < 0.05). People aged over 50 years gave higher mean scores for odor and color (P < 0.05), indicative of greater satisfaction and less demanding tastes when compared to other age categories. Despite the variability in the intrinsic characteristics, differentiation of meat by the consumer is not easy to determine, with little impact of sociodemographic characteristics on organoleptic perception. Meat from Brangus cattle and buffaloes raised at pasture was considered tenderer than that from Angus cattle raised under the same conditions by an untrained taste panel compared with.

The food industry has endeavoured to move toward the direction of clean labelling. Therefore, replacing synthetic preservatives with natural plant extracts has gained significant importance. It is necessary to determine whether products enriched with such extracts are still accepted by consumers. In this study, consumer tests (n = 246) and sensory profiling were used to assess the impact of ethanol extracts of spices (lovage, marjoram, thyme, oregano, rosemary, and basil; concentration 0.05%) on the sensory quality of pork meatballs and hamburgers. The desirability of meat products with spice extracts to consumers depended on the added extract. The highest scores were for products with lovage extract, whose sensory profile was the most similar to the control sample without the addition of an extract (with higher intensity of broth taste compared with the others). Products with rosemary and thyme extracts were characterised by lower desirability than the control. This was related to the high intensity of spicy and essential oil tastes, as well as the bitter taste in the case of products with thyme. The studied extracts of spices allow for the creation of meat products (meatballs and hamburgers) with high consumer desirability, however, the high intensity of essential oil and spicy tastes might be a limitation.

Food liking-disliking patterns may strongly influence food choices and health. Here we assess: (1) whether food preference patterns are genetic/environmentally driven; and (2) the relationship between metabolomics profiles and food preference patterns in a large population of twins. 2,107 individuals from TwinsUK completed an online food and lifestyle preference questionnaire. Principle components analysis was undertaken to identify patterns of food liking-disliking. Heritability estimates for each liking pattern were obtained by structural equation modeling. The correlation between blood metabolomics profiles (280 metabolites) and each food liking pattern was assessed in a subset of 1,491 individuals and replicated in an independent subset of monozygotic twin pairs discordant for the liking pattern (65 to 88 pairs). Results from both analyses were meta-analyzed. Four major food-liking patterns were identified (Fruit and Vegetable, Distinctive Tastes, Sweet and High Carbohydrate, and Meat) accounting for 26% of the total variance. All patterns were moderately heritable (Fruit and Vegetable,h2[95% CI]: 0.36 [0.28; 0.44]; Distinctive Tastes: 0.58 [0.52; 0.64]; Sweet and High Carbohydrate: 0.52 [0.45, 0.59] and Meat: 0.44 [0.35; 0.51]), indicating genetic factors influence food liking-disliking. Overall, we identified 14 significant metabolite associations (Bonferronip< 4.5 × 10−5) with Distinctive Tastes (8 metabolites), Sweet and High Carbohydrate (3 metabolites), and Meat (3 metabolites). Food preferences follow patterns based on similar taste and nutrient characteristics and these groupings are strongly determined by genetics. Food preferences that are strongly genetically determined (h2≥ 0.40), such as for meat and distinctive-tasting foods, may influence intakes more substantially, as demonstrated by the metabolomic associations identified here.

Identification of taste abnormalities can help understand difficulties in nutrition. We evaluated 15 hospice inpatients with advanced cancer for subjective taste changes. The majority had both subjective and objective taste changes. Most thought all food was tasteless followed by loss of sweet sensation and meat aversion. About half of the participants exhibited anorexia and weight loss with decreased energy intake. Both detection and recognition thresholds for these basic tastes were abnormal for the majority of participants. Reduced sensitivity for sweet and salt taste and altered perception for sour predominated in formal taste testing.

Dietary fiber plays a significant role in the functioning of the human gastrointestinal tract. Their presence in the diet allows you to prevent a number of serious diseases associated with both the digestive organs and the cardiovascular and nervous systems. In order to increase the share of dietary fiber in the population's nutrition structure, it is advisable to create functional products based on traditionally consumed foods enriched with various types of dietary fiber. Such traditional products for the Russian consumer are dairy and lactic acid products, bakery products, meat and fish products, poultry. The article presents the results of an experiment on the introduction of several types of dietary fibers (wheat, oat, potato and psillum plantain fibers) into chopped semi-finished meat products During the study, several recipes of cutlets were developed, according to which culinary products were prepared, which were then analyzed according to organoleptic and physico-chemical parameters. The results of the study showed that the products made using psillum fibers have the highest organoleptic qualities. Cutlets with potato fibers also showed satisfactory results of organoleptic and chemical-physical studies. Both types of cutlets were characterized by a pronounced meat taste and smell, a pleasant consistency, there were no extraneous tastes and inclusions in them. Products with other types of fibers cannot be recommended as functional products due to low consumer qualities (grainy texture, pronounced foreign tastes). The development of semi-finished meat products enriched with dietary fibers without loss of consumer properties will allow expanding the market of functional products in the future.

PurposeThis paper aims to discuss how whale meat foodways in Japan is a local practice, contrary to the prevailing political belief that it is national, and to examine two local whale meat foodways in Japan by focusing on the usage of blubber. To understand complexity of whaling issue, one needs to be careful of species rather than general “whale.”Design/methodology/approachBy investigating two kinds of recipe books, one published in the early 19th century and the other the early 20th century on whale meat dish, the paper clarifies blubber has been widely consumed rather than lean meat, and blubber was more important than lean meat as whale meat.FindingsThe western part of Japan has rich whale meat foodways compared to other parts of Japan. It is because of their history of whaling since the 17th century. They have inherited rich whale meat foodways.Originality/valueAlthough whale sashimi and deep-fried lean meat are popular nationwide regardless of their communities' history, former whaling communities in the western part of Japan developed a preference for blubber, skin, tongue and offal over lean meat. Whale meat foodways in Japan, therefore, is a local heritage. This fact should be the starting point for analyzing Japanese whaling and whale meat foodways.

Consumption of broiler chicken meat increase year by year in line with publicawareness increased of animal products. The demand for broiler chicken meat in Binjai Cityshows a fluctuating increase that estimated by a number of factors that influence it.The purposeof this research was identify the factor of family’s dependent number (X1), educational level(X2), family income (X3), price of broiler chicken (X4), taste (X5), age of respondent (X6), andprice of substitution was egg (X7) to broiler chicken demand in Binjai City.The analysismethod used in this research was multiple linear regression analysis method by using SPSS22.0. Sampling technique with slovin method with the samples were100 consumers of broilerchicken meat. This research was conducted from October until November 2017.The results showed that value of determination (R2) was 0,704. Simultaneously, the variablesshowed that they gave significant effect (P<0,05) to the demand of broiler chicken meat.Partially, family’s dependent number, income, chicken meat’s prices and tastes had asignificant effect to the demand of broiler chickens while the educational level, age ofrespondents and the price of egg did not give significant effect on the demand of broilerchicken meat in Binjai City. The conclusion of this research showed that the taste was the mostsignificant (increase) variable to the demand of broiler chicken in Binjai City and thenfollowed by the family’s dependent number, price of broiler chicken meat and family income.Keywords: Demand, Broiler Chicken, Price, Binjai

Dry-fermented sausages were produced in a traditional way, without addition of nitrites and starter cultures, from meat of an autochthonous breed (Krškopolje pig) raised either in a conventional indoor or organic husbandry system. Physicochemical and sensory analyses were performed at the end of processing to characterize their quality. Dry-fermented sausages from organic pork retained more moisture, which resulted in higher water activity and softer texture (instrumental and sensory). They were more oxidized (higher thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS)), in agreement with more unsaturated fatty acid profile, a higher score for rancid taste, and a higher relative abundance of volatiles from lipid β-oxidation. Overall, dry-fermented sausages from organic pork had lower levels of volatile compounds, particularly, those originating from spices (despite the same quantity added) and lower levels of amino-acid degradation. Sensory analysis showed that dry-fermented sausages from organic pork had less intensive and vivid color, tasted more bitter and sour, and had more off-tastes. The observed differences could be related to initial differences in raw material (differences in meat pH and level of polyunsaturated fatty acids) affecting the process of fermentation.

Little is known about how liking for different foods develops from birth to adulthood. Although there are both cultural and sensory aspects to the development of food preferences, the focus of this study is on the sensory aspects of food preference development, in particular, preferences for meat. Two main aims are addressed : 1/. To develop a robust methodology that can be used to determine pre-literate and recently literate children's liking for different foods and the determinants of that liking. 2/. To investigate the effects of early experience with foods on later food preferences.Several tests were conducted and results noted. Overall the results of this thesis show that it is possible to gather reliable hedonic data from young, even pre-school children, and that it is possible that very early feeding experience has some influence on adults' food preferences.
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Meta-learning has been gaining traction in the Deep Learning field as an approach to build models that are able to efficiently adapt to new tasks after deployment. Contrary to conventional Machine Learning approaches, which are trained on a specific task (e.g image classification on a set of labels), meta-learning methods are meta-trained across multiple tasks (e.g image classification across multiple sets of labels). Their end objective is to learn how to solve unseen tasks with just a few samples. One of the most renowned methods of the field is Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML). The objective of this thesis is to supplement the latest relevant research with novel observations regarding the capabilities, limitations and network dynamics of MAML. For this end, experiments were performed on the meta-reinforcement learning benchmark Meta-World. Additionally, a comparison with a recent variation of MAML, called Almost No Inner Loop (ANIL) was conducted, providing insights on the changes of the network’s representation during adaptation (meta-testing). The results of this study indicate that MAML is able to outperform the baselines on the challenging Meta-World benchmark but shows little signs actual ”rapid learning” during meta-testing thus supporting the hypothesis that it reuses features learnt during meta-training.
Meta-Learning har fått dragkraft inom Deep Learning fältet som ett tillvägagångssätt för att bygga modeller som effektivt kan anpassa sig till nya uppgifter efter distribution. I motsats till konventionella maskininlärnings metoder som är tränade för en specifik uppgift (t.ex. bild klassificering på en uppsättning klasser), så metatränas meta-learning metoder över flera uppgifter (t.ex. bild klassificering över flera uppsättningar av klasser). Deras slutmål är att lära sig att lösa osedda uppgifter med bara några få prover. En av de mest kända metoderna inom området är Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML). Syftet med denna avhandling är att komplettera den senaste relevanta forskningen med nya observationer avseende MAML: s kapacitet, begränsningar och nätverksdynamik. För detta ändamål utfördes experiment på metaförstärkningslärande riktmärke Meta-World. Dessutom gjordes en jämförelse med en ny variant av MAML, kallad Almost No Inner Loop (ANIL), som gav insikter om förändringarna i nätverkets representation under anpassning (metatestning). Resultaten av denna studie indikerar att MAML kan överträffa baslinjerna för det utmanande Meta-Worldriktmärket men visar små tecken på faktisk ”snabb inlärning” under metatestning, vilket stödjer hypotesen att den återanvänder funktioner som den lärt sig under metaträning.

Thesis (D.M.A.)--University of North Texas, 2007.
System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Accompanied by 3 recitals, recorded Feb. 27, 2006, Sept. 25, 2006, and July 21, 2007. Includes bibliographical references (p. 51-55).

Meta-learning is an approach to machine learning that teaches models how to learn new tasks with only a handful of examples. However, meta-learning requires a large labeled dataset during its initial meta-learning phase, which restricts what domains meta-learning can be used in. This thesis investigates if this labeled dataset can be replaced with a synthetic dataset without a loss in performance. The approach has been tested on the task of military vehicle classification. The results show that for few-shot classification tasks, models trained with synthetic data can come close to the performance of models trained with real-world data. The results also show that adjustments to the data-generation process, such as light randomization, can have a significant effect on performance, suggesting that fine-tuning to the generation process could further improve performance.
Metainlärning är en metodik inom maskininlärning som gör det möjligt att lära en modell nya uppgifter med endast en handfull mängd träningsexempel. Metainlärning kräver dock en stor mängd träningsdata under själva metaträningsfasen, vilket begränsar de domäner där metodiken kan användas. Detta examensarbete utreder huruvida syntetisk bilddata, som genererats med hjälp av en simulator, kan ersätta verklig bilddata under metainlärningsfasen. Metoden har utvärderats på militär fordonsklassificering. Resultaten visar att för bildklassificering med 1–10 träningsexempel per klass kan en modell metainlärd med syntetisk data närma sig prestandan hos en modell metainlärd med riktig data. Resultaten visar även att små ändringar i genereringsprocessen, exempelvis graden av slumpmässigt ljus, har en stor inverkan på den slutgiltiga prestandan, vilket ger hopp om att ytterligare finjustering av genereringsprocessen kan resultera i ännu fler prestandaförbättringar.

Avhandlingen syftar till att undersöka hur man kan utveckla ett kognitivt baserat sensoriskt språk för olika produkter i detaljhandel och därefter använda det i marknadsföringen i butiksledet. Vidare undersökts om denna marknadsföring har någon effekt på konsumenternas val av produkt. Inom forskningsprocessen, tvärvetenskapligprocess, används metodik och teorier inom sensorik, lingvistik (semantik) och marknadsföring (konsumentbeteende). I en sensorisk studie jämfördes en tränad sensorisk panel och en grupp konsumenters förmåga att beskriva och analysera olika produkters sensoriska egenskaper. Resultatet visade på att de två gruppernas beskrivningar av de olika produkterna var relativt överensstämmande. Att beskriva smak verbalt anses som relativt svårt och komplext. Baserat på det sensoriska resultatet analyserades egenskapsorden ytterligare utifrån ett lingvistiskt perspektiv, semantik. Den semantiska analysen, empiriska resultat och teori, påvisade en möjlighet att utvinna värdefulla attribut från mer diffusa attribut, t.ex. ”nötig smak” – som kan härledas från sort, e.g. ”mandel” som i sin tur innefattar olika egenskaper i form a smak, doft, textur etc. För att ta reda på om de sensoriska beskrivningarna hade någon effekt på konsumenternas beteende och val i butik genomfördes två empiriska studier. Konsumenternas val av produkt i butik studerades utifrån olika variabler; sensoriska beskrivningar, sensoriska och semantiska beskrivningar, sortnamn, pris, och smak preferens. Resultatet visade att de sensoriska beskrivningarna påverkade konsumenternas val av produkt, t.ex. när bara sort namn kommunicerades var man benägen att välja en känd sort, men när man använde sig av sensoriska beskrivningar skiftade konsumenternas val och de var inte längre styrda av det mer välkända sortnamnet. Vidare visade det sig att konsumenterna vara mindre priskänslig när sensoriska beskrivningar visades. Konklusion: Användningen av ett sensoriskt språk i marknadsföringen av de undersökta livsmedlen påverkade konsumenternas val av produkt i butik samt att konsumenterna tenderade till att vara mindre priskänslig när sensoriska beskrivningar användes.
Denna avhandling är ett resultat av ett forskningsprojekt med arbetstiteln ”Det sensoriska språket-ett marknadsföringsverktyg” vars syfte var att utveckla ett sen­soriska språk för frukt och grönsaker för att se om detta språk i marknads­föringen kan påverka konsumenternas preferens, val, av olika livsmedel i detaljhandeln.Forskningsprojektet var ett samarbetsprojekt mellan Örebro universitet, Restaurang- och hotellhögskolan, Grythytte Akademi och ICA Sverige AB med delfinansiering av Kunskaps & Kompetensstiftelsen. Forskargruppen bestod av:Professor emerita Inga-Britt Gustafsson, Örebro universitetDocent Åsa Öström, Örebro universitetProfessor Lena Mossberg, Handelshögskolan i GöteborgFil.Dr. Ulf Larsson, Örebro universitetLisbeth Kohls, ICA Sverige AB

Human memory systems have been divided into two broad domains, one responsible for 'declarative memory' and the other for 'non-declarative memory'. The evidence for multiple memory systems is reviewed with respect to the human SRT, a sensitive measure of non-declarative memory. A qualitative review of the human SRT literature concludes that damage to extrapyramidal brain systems disrupts SRT performance whereas limbic system neuropathology (LSN) leaves performance intact. However, a meta-analysis of the SRT literature with neuropathological patients revealed unexpectedly that patients with explicit memory disorders are impaired on the SRT task, although less severely than patients with extrapyramidal damage. Other evidence suggested that the apparent SRT impairment in humans with LSN might be due to the additional pathology (eg frontal) often evident in these patients. A brief review of the animal evidence for multiple memory systems concluded that, like humans, animals too have multiple memory systems but none of the animal tasks used to model non-declarative memory make good conceptual or behavioural contact with the corresponding human tasks. Thus a novel animal-analogue of the human-SRT task, the 'fan-maze', was developed. Although rats displayed a reasonable ability to perform the fan-maze SRT task it was abandoned due to technical and conceptual problems in favour of a better design. The second new SRT task used intra-cranial self-stimulation to promote prolonged, rapid and continuous responding. A control study determined that the optimal conditions for sequence learning was a single large (2820 trial) session. Intact rats that experienced a switch from the repeating to a random sequence under these conditions demonstrated a clear interference effect, the primary measure of SRT performance. A lesion study used these optimal conditions and showed that small caudate lesions impaired, whereas small hippocampal lesions facilitated, rat-SRT performance. Hence, this second task has proven to be a valid animal-analogue of the human SRT task, as rats performed it in a manner similar to that shown by humans and relied on the same neural substrate to perform the task as humans. In addition, this second task resolved the discrepancy of the LSN meta-analysis. Quantitative findings are reviewed in light of theories and studies presented earlier in the thesis. Limitations of the thesis are identified and suggestions are made as to future SRT research in animals or humans.

Inledning: Många organisationer och projekt har under de senaste åren fokuserat på att främja en ökad konsumtion och kunskap om viltkött. Den enkla frågan ”hur smakar vilt?” blir i detta sammanhang mycket betydelsefull. Hur kan smaken vilt beskrivas med ord?Litteraturgenomgång: Idag står viltkött för 4 % av den totala köttkonsumtionen men runt 59 % vill äta mer viltkött. Flera nya Svenska undersökningar har visat att smakbeskrivningar av produkter kan underlätta köpbeslutet för konsumenten. Det har också visats att våra sinnen påverkar våra köpbeslut och att ju mer vi fångar en konsuments sinnen ju mer kan köpbeslutet påverkas.Syfte: Syftet med den här undersökningen var att ta fram en sensorisk beskrivning av viltsmak. Studiens mål var också att få svar på vilka ord som kunde beskriva viltsmaken hos älg-, hjort- och vildsvinskött och hur tydlig viltsmaken var hos de tre viltarterna.Metod: Med kött från tre utvalda villebråd skapades en smakprofil för viltkött genom ett sensoriskt beskrivande test. En profilpanel fick provsmaka ytterfilén av hjort, älg och vildsvin. Undersökningen gjordes vid ett tillfälle och var uppdelat i tre moment. Först fick panelen göra en individuell bedömning av viltköttet genom att fylla i en enkät. Sedan diskuterades enkätens resultat i en gruppdiskussion och i sista momentet bestämdes viltsmakens intensitet hos de tre viltarterna i form av ett intensitetstest.Resultat: Resultatet visar att vilt har en syrlig smak, en karaktäristisk blod- och metallsmak samt en mustig smak av skog och jord. Även om studien främst var inriktad på smaken och inte doft, valdes svaveldoft att finnas med i beskrivningen för viltsmak eftersom den återkom hos samtliga viltarter. Viltsmaken var betydligt intensivare hos älgen och hjorten medan den hos vildsvinet visades vara mycket mild. Älgen hade den mest utpräglade viltsmaken.Slutsats: En slutsats kan dras med resultatet som stöd att viltsmak kan beskrivas vara syrligt, ha en karaktäristisk blod- och metallsmak samt en mustig smak av skog och jord. Slutsatsen kan också dras att älgen och hjorten har en mycket kraftig medan vildsvinet inte har samma tydligare viltsmak. Genom litteraturstudier drogs vidare slutsatsen att sensorisk beskrivning av viltkött kan förenkla konsumentens beslut, skapa en vassare marknadsföring samt öka upplevelsen för både den vanliga konsumenten och inom för konsumenter inom turisnäringen. Med hjälp av beskrivande smakord kan också samtal och uttryck för vad maten smakar öka gemenskapen under en måltid.
Introduction: Many organizations and projects have during the past years focused on to promote an increased consumption and knowledge for game meat. The simple question “How does game taste?” becomes in this context very essential. How can the taste of game be described with words?Literature review: Today game meat represents 4 % of the total meat consumption but approximately 59 % would like to eat more game meat. Several new Swedish studies have shown that taste descriptions of products can ease the purchase decision for the consumer. It has also been shown that our senses are influencing on our purchase decision. All the more we can catch the consumers senses all the more the purchase decision can be influenced.Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop a sensory description for the gamy flavor. The aim with the study was also to answer, which words could describe the taste of game of deer, elk and boar and how clear the taste of game was in these three species.Method: With meat from three selected games a taste profile for game meat was created through a sensory descriptive test. A profile panel tasted the sirloin from deer, elk and boar. The study was performed at one occasion and divided into three separate stages. At the first stage the panel made an individual judgment by filling in a survey. In the subsequent stage the result from the survey was discussed in groups and in the final stage the taste intensity of the three different games was determined by an intensity test.Results: The results shows that game has a sour taste, a characteristic blood and metallic taste and a rich taste of wood and earth. Although the study focused on taste rather than scents, the scent of sulfur was decided to be a part of the gamy flavor as it appeared at all species. The elk and deer had a strong taste of game meanwhile the boar showed a more mild taste. The elk had the most pronounced gamy flavor.Conclusion: One conclusion that was made with the results as support is that the taste of game can be described as sour, a characteristic blood and metallic taste and a rich taste of wood and earth. Another conclusion that can be made is that the elk and the deer has a much more stronger taste of game compared to the boar which doesn’t have the same clear taste of game. By literature studies a conclusion could be made that a sensory description of game meat can ease the consumers purchase decision, create a more cutting edge marketing, and enhance the experience both for the ordinary consumer and the consumer in the tourist business. Using descriptive words for the taste of the food can also increase the communion during a meal.

Phonological processing, the ability to recognize and manipulate the sounds of one's native language, is an essential linguistic skill. Deficits in this skill may lead to decreased social, educational, and financial success (Kraus & White-Schwoch, 2019). Additionally, phonological disorders have been shown to be highly variable and individualized (Bellon-Harn & Cradeur-Pampolina, 2016) and therefore difficult to treat effectively. A better understanding of the neural underpinnings of phonological processing, including the underlying skill of phonemic discrimination, could lead to the development of more individualized and effective intervention. Several studies, some using quantitative electroencephalography (qEEG) and others using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), have been conducted to investigate these neural underpinnings. When considering the relative strengths and weaknesses of qEEG and fMRI, the scientific community has traditionally believed qEEG to be excellent at determining when brain activity occurs (temporal resolution), but to have limited abilities in determining where it occurs (spatial resolution). On the other hand, the reverse is believed to be true for fMRI. However, the spatial resolution of qEEG has improved over recent decades and some studies have reached levels of specificity comparable to fMRI. This thesis provides an abbreviated meta-analysis determining the accuracy and consistency of source references, or areas where brain activation is determined to originate from, in qEEG studies evaluating phonemic discrimination. Nineteen experiments were analyzed using the Comprehensive Meta-Analysis software. A study's event rate was defined as the number of times an anatomical area was coded as a source reference, divided by the participants in the study. Results show that each of these experiments had relatively low event rates, culminating into a summary event rate of 0.240. This indicates that qEEG does not provide source references that are as accurate or consistent as fMRI. This meta-analysis concludes that although there is research suggesting qEEG may have developed to be comparable to fMRI in spatial resolution, this is not supported in the analysis of qEEG studies focused on phonemic discrimination.

The textbook outlines the theoretical and applied aspects of the organization and accounting features, which allow assessing the effectiveness of its management with a proper degree of completeness and reliability. The latest legislative changes have been taken into account. All the material is distributed on topics between theoretical, practical and seminar classes, as well as independent work of students in the form of discussions, presentations, situational tasks, test tasks. The use of methodological materials will allow students to rationally allocate their time while studying the discipline, get a sufficiently adequate aggregate score and rating assessment and form professional skills. Meets the requirements of the federal state educational standards of higher education of the latest generation. The textbook contains a set of developments for the preparation of bachelors in the field of accounting that meet the requirements of the educational program in the field of training 38.03.01 "Economics".

SummaryThis chapter describes various approaches for the hyperparameter optimization (HPO) and combined algorithm selection and hyperparameter optimization problems (CASH). It starts by presenting some basic hyperparameter optimization methods, including grid search, random search, racing strategies, successive halving and hyperband. Next, it discusses Bayesian optimization, a technique that learns from the observed performance of previously tried hyperparameter settings on the current task. This knowledge is used to build a meta-model (surrogate model) that can be used to predict which unseen configurations may work better on that task. This part includes the description sequential model-based optimization (SMBO). This chapter also covers metalearning techniques that extend the previously discussed optimization techniques with the ability to transfer knowledge across tasks. This includes techniques such as warm-starting the search, or transferring previously learned meta-models that were trained on prior (similar) tasks. A key question here is how to establish how similar prior tasks are to the new task. This can be done on the basis of past experiments, but can also exploit the information gained from recent experiments on the target task. This chapter presents an overview of some recent methods proposed in this area.

AbstractIn the face of increasingly complex combat tasks and unpredictable combat environment, a single UAV can not meet the operational requirements, and UAVs perform tasks in a cooperative way. In this paper, an improved heuristic reinforcement learning algorithm is proposed to solve the formation transformation problem of multiple UAVs by using multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithm and heuristic function. With the help of heuristic back-propagation algorithm for formation transformation, the convergence efficiency of reinforcement learning is improved. Through the above reinforcement learning algorithm, the problem of low efficiency of formation transformation of multiple UAVs in confrontation environment is solved.

Increased meat consumption is said to have detrimental effects on health, environmental, and non-ethical. One alternative to meat consumption is meat analogues. To our knowledge, Malaysian consumers' perceptions, expectations and their purchase intention of meat analogues is less explored. In our study, significant determinants of consumers’ purchase intentions of meat analogues were studied on 387 consumers by using the extended Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (TPB). The TPB model accounted for 49% of the variance in purchase intention and 6% of the variance in purchase behaviour. It was revealed that attitude, subjective norms, environmental concerns, healthiness influence, and objective knowledge were all statistically significant predictors of consumers' intention to purchase meat analogues. Purchase intention had a significant but negative correlation on purchase behaviour . We found no evidence that perceived behavioural control, food neophobia, and perceived monetary barriers influenced purchase intention. Knowledge on meat analogues was not significantly correlated with attitude towards meat analogues. Our study also confirmed that meat substitutes should taste, feel, and prepare similarly to meats. In a nutshell, the research findings indicated that meat analogue producers should emphasize on improving the sensorial qualities of their existing meat substitute products and increasing consumers’ awareness about the novel food product.

Machine learning classifiers’ capability is largely dependent on the scale of available training data and limited by the model overfitting in data-scarce learning tasks. To address this problem, this work proposes a novel Meta Functional Learning (MFL) by meta-learning a generalisable functional model from data-rich tasks whilst simultaneously regularising knowledge transfer to data-scarce tasks. The MFL computes meta-knowledge on functional regularisation generalisable to different learning tasks by which functional training on limited labelled data promotes more discriminative functions to be learned. Moreover, we adopt an Iterative Update strategy on MFL (MFL-IU). This improves knowledge transfer regularisation from MFL by progressively learning the functional regularisation in knowledge transfer. Experiments on three Few-Shot Learning (FSL) benchmarks (miniImageNet, CIFAR-FS and CUB) show that meta functional learning for regularisation knowledge transfer can benefit improving FSL classifiers.

This study aimed to assess the impact of interacting with two infotainment systems, Android Auto and Apple CarPlay, on four driver performance measures: reaction time, driving behaviour, eyes-off road and self-reported performance. It also compared the results with other forms of driver impairment studied previously. Twenty regular Android users took part in the Android Auto trial and 20 regular Apple users took part in the Apple CarPlay trial. Each participant completed three 20 minute drives in TRL’s DigiCar simulator: control (no interaction with infotainment system), voice enabled and touch enabled. The route was divided into sections and participants performed music, navigation, texting and calling tasks at specific times during the drive. Compared with the control drive, participants in both trials showed a reduction in average speed, increase in deviation of headway and larger deviation of lane position for most tasks; this effect was greater when using touch features than voice features. Eye gaze measures indicated that participants did not meet the NHTSA criteria for most of the tasks when using touch controls for both systems, but they met the criteria when using voice control. Self-reported data suggested that participants found interacting through touch to be more difficult and distracting than voice. Most critically, reaction time to a stimulus on the road ahead was significantly higher when selecting music through Spotify when using Android Auto and Apple CarPlay. Participants also failed to react more to the stimulus on the road ahead when engaging with either Android Auto or Apple CarPlay compared with a control drive. Comparison with previous driver impairment studies showed that the increase in reaction time when interacting with either system using touch was higher than previously measured forms of impairment, including texting and hand-held calls.

The Engineering and Test Branch within the Division of Operations and Maintenance of the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Sacramento District, tasked the Sensor Integration Branch (SIB) at the Engineer Research and Develop-ment Center (ERDC) to perform non-destructive testing (NDT) on the trunnion anchor rods at Oroville Dam through the use of ultrasonic guided waves. This is the third year of this NDT. The results of the testing are presented along with qualitative analysis in determining whether a rod is in-tact or compromised. Analysis is based upon the expected results from other rods at the site, knowledge of rod response at other sites, data gathered from the trunnion rod research test bed at the ERDC, and comparison to the previous year’s effort.

This publication from the National Initiative for Cybersecurity Education (NICE) describes the Workforce Framework for Cybersecurity (NICE Framework), a fundamental reference for describing and sharing information about cybersecurity work. It expresses that work as Task statements and describes Knowledge and Skill statements that provide a foundation for learners including students, job seekers, and employees. The use of these statements helps students to develop skills, job seekers to demonstrate competencies, and employees to accomplish tasks. As a common, consistent lexicon that categorizes and describes cybersecurity work, the NICE Framework improves communication about how to identify, recruit, develop, and retain cybersecurity talent. The NICE Framework is a reference source from which organizations or sectors can develop additional publications or tools that meet their needs to define or provide guidance on different aspects of cybersecurity education, training, and workforce development.

Review question / Objective: The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to determine the efficacy of lower extremity exoskeletons in improving gait function in patients with spinal cord injury, compared with placebo or other treatments. Condition being studied: Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) is a severely disabling disease. In the process of SCI rehabilitation treatment, improving patients' walking ability, improving their self-care ability, and enhancing patients' self-esteem is an important aspect of their return to society, which can also reduce the cost of patients, so the rehabilitation of lower limbs is very important. The lower extremity exoskeleton robot is a bionic robot designed according to the principles of robotics, mechanism, bionics, control theory, communication technology, and information processing technology, which can be worn on the lower extremity of the human body and complete specific tasks under the user's control. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of the lower extremity exoskeleton on the improvement of gait function in patients with spinal cord injury.

Immersive technologies and, in particular, augmented reality (AR) are rapidly changing the sphere of education, especially in the field of science, technology, engineering, arts and mathematics. High- quality professional training of a future mathematics teacher who is able to meet the challenges that permeate all sides, the realities of the globalizing information society, presupposes reliance on a highly effective learning environment. The purpose of the research is to transform the traditional educational environment for training future mathematics teachers with the use of the GeoGebra AR dynamic mathematics system, the introduction of cloud technologies into the educational process. The educational potential of GeoGebra AR in the system of professional training of future mathematics teachers is analyzed in the paper. Effective and practical tools for teaching mathematics based on GeoGebra AR using interactive models and videos for mixed and distance learning of students are provided. The advantages of the GeoGebra AR dynamic mathematics system are highlighted. The use of new technologies for the creation of didactic innovative resources that improve the process of teaching and learning mathematics is presented on the example of an educational and methodological task, the purpose of which is to create didactic material on the topic “Sections of polyhedra”. While solving it, future teachers of mathematics should develop the following constituent elements: video materials; test tasks for self-control; dynamic models of sections of polyhedra; video instructions for constructing sections of polyhedra and for solving basic problems in the GeoGebra AR system. The article highlights the main characteristics of the proposed educational environment for training future mathematics teachers using the GeoGebra AR dynamic mathematics system: interdisciplinarity, polyprofessionalism, dynamism, multicomponent.

This interdisciplinaray work combines expertise in engineering and entomology in Israel and the US, to develop an acoustic trap for mate-seeking female medflies. Medflies are among the world's most economically harmful pests, and monitoring and control efforts cost about $800 million each year in Israel and the US. Efficient traps are vitally important tools for medfly quarantine and pest management activities; they are needed for early detection, for predicting dispersal patterns and for estimating medfly abundance within infested regions. Early detection facilitates rapid response to invasions, in order to contain them. Prediction of dispersal patterns facilitates preemptive action, and estimates of the pests' abundance lead to quantification of medfly infestations and control efforts. Although olfactory attractants and traps exist for capturing male and mated female medflies, there are still no satisfactorily efficient means to attract and trap virgin and remating females (a significant and dangerous segment of the population). We proposed to explore the largely ignored mechanism of female attraction to male song that the flies use in courtship. The potential of such an approach is indicated by studies under this project. Our research involved the identification, isolation, and augmentation of the most attractive components of male medfly songs and the use of these components in the design and testing of traps incorporating acoustic lures. The project combined expertise in acoustic engineering and instrumentation, fruit fly behavior, and integrated pest management. The BARD support was provided for 1 year to enable proof-of-concept studies, aimed to determine: 1) whether mate-seeking female medflies are attracted to male songs; and 2) over what distance such attraction works. Male medfly calling song was recorded during courtship. Multiple acoustic components of male song were examined and tested for synergism with substrate vibrations produced by various surfaces, plates and loudspeakers, with natural and artificial sound playbacks. A speaker-funnel system was developed that focused the playback signal to reproduce as closely as possible the near-field spatial characteristics of the sounds produced by individual males. In initial studies, the system was tasted by observing the behavior of females while the speaker system played songs at various intensities. Through morning and early afternoon periods of peak sexual activity, virgin female medflies landed on a sheet of filter paper at the funnel outlet and stayed longer during broadcasting than during the silent part of the cycle. In later studies, females were captured on sticky paper at the funnel outlet. The mean capture rates were 67 and 44%, respectively, during sound emission and silent control periods. The findings confirmed that female trapping was improved if a male calling song was played. The second stage of the research focused on estimating the trapping range. Initial results indicated that the range possibly extended to 70 cm, but additional, verification tests remain to be conducted. Further studies are planned also to consider effects of combining acoustic and pheromonal cues.

The article clarifies of gender identity stereotypes in modern media. The main gender stereotypes covered in modern mass media are analyzed and refuted. The model of gender relations in the media is reflected mainly in the stereotypical images of men and woman. The features of the use of gender concepts in modern periodicals for women and men were determined. The most frequently used derivatives of these macroconcepts were identified and analyzed in detail. It has been found that publications for women and men are full of various gender concepts that are used in different contexts. Ingeneral, theanalysisofthe concept-maximums and concept-minimum gender and their characteristics is carried out in the context of gender stereotypes that have been forme dand function in the society, system atizing the a ctual presentations. The study of the gender concept is relevant because it reveals new trends and features of modern gender images. Taking into account the special features of gender-labeled periodicals in general and the practical absence of comprehensive scientific studies of the gender concept in particular, there is a need to supplement Ukrainian science with this topic. Gender psychology, which is served by methods of various sciences, primarily sociological, pedagogical, linguistic, psychological, socio-psychological. Let us pay attention to linguistic and psycholinguistic methods in gender studies. Linguistic methods complement intelligence research tasks, associated with speech, word and text. Psycholinguistic methods used in gender psychology (semantic differential, semantic integral, semantic analysis of words and texts), aimed at studying speech messages, specific mechanisms of origin and perception, functions of speech activity in society, studying the relationship between speech messages and gender properties participants in the communication, to analyze the linguistic development in connection with the general development of the individual. Nowhere in gender practice there is the whole arsenal of psychological methods that allow you to explore psychological peculiarities of a person like observation, experiments, questionnaires, interviews, testing, modeling, etc. The methods of psychological self-diagnostics include: the gender aspect of the own socio-psychological portrait, a gender biography as a variant of the biographical method, aimed at the reconstruction of individual social experience. In the process of writing a gender autobiography, a person can understand the characteristics of his gender identity, as well as ways and means of their formation. Socio-psychological methods of studying gender include the study of socially constructed women’s and men’s roles, relationships and identities, sexual characteristics, psychological characteristics, etc. The use of gender indicators and gender approaches as a means of socio-psychological and sociological analysis broadens the subject boundaries of these disciplines and makes them the subject of study within these disciplines. And also, in the article a combination of concrete-historical, structural-typological, system-functional methods is implemented. Descriptive and comparative methods, method of typology, modeling are used. Also used is a method of content analysis for the study of gender content of modern gender-stamped journals. It was he who allowed quantitatively to identify and explore the features of the gender concept in the pages of periodicals for women and men. A combination of historical, structural-typological, system-functional methods is also implemented in the article. Descriptive and comparative methods, method of typology, modeling are used. A method of content analysis for the study of gender content of modern gender-labeled journals is also used. It allowed to identify and explore the features of the gender concept quantitatively in the periodicals for women and men. The conceptual perception and interpretation of the gender concept «woman», which is highlighted in the modern gender-labeled press in Ukraine, requires the elaboration of the polyfunctionality of gender interpretations, the comprehension of the metaphorical perception of this image and its role and purpose in society. A gendered approach to researching the gender content of contemporary periodicals for women and men. Conceptual analysis of contemporary gender-stamped publications within the gender conceptual sphere allows to identify and correlate the meta-gender and gender concepts that appear in society.

1.1 Resumen macroeconómico En el segundo trimestre la economía enfrentó varios choques, principalmente de oferta y de costos, la mayoría de los cuales no fueron anticipados, o los previstos fueron más persistentes de lo esperado, y que en conjunto interrumpieron la recuperación de la actividad económica observada a comienzos de año y llevaron la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta. La inflación básica (sin alimentos ni regulados: SAR) aumentó, pero se mantuvo baja y acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico. A comienzos de abril se inició una tercera ola de pandemia, más acentuada y prolongada que la anterior, con un elevado costo en vidas humanas y algún impacto negativo en la recuperación económica. Entre mayo y mediados de junio los bloqueos de las carreteras y los problemas de orden público tuvieron un fuerte efecto negativo sobre la actividad económica y la inflación. Se estima que la magnitud de estos dos choques combinados habría generado una caída en niveles en el producto interno bruto (PIB) con respecto al primer trimestre del año. Adicionalmente, los bloqueos causaron un aumento significativo de los precios de los alimentos. A estos choques se sumaron los efectos acumulados de la disrupción global en algunas cadenas de valor y el incremento en los fletes internacionales que desde finales de 2020 vienen generando restricciones de oferta y aumentos de costos. Todos estos factores, que afectaron principalmente el índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) de bienes y de alimentos, explicaron la mayor parte del error de pronóstico del equipo técnico y el aumento de la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta del 3 %. El incremento en la inflación básica y de los precios de los regulados fue acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico, y se explica principalmente por la eliminación de varios alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. A todo esto se suma la mayor percepción de riesgo soberano y las presiones al alza que esto implica sobre el costo de financiamiento externo y la tasa de cambio. A pesar de los fuertes choques negativos, el crecimiento económico esperado para la primera mitad del año (9,1%), es significativamente mayor que lo proyectado en el informe de abril (7,1%), signo de una economía más dinámica que se recuperaría más rápido de lo previsto. Desde finales de 2020 las diferentes cifras de actividad económica han mostrado un crecimiento mayor que el esperado. Esto sugiere que los efectos negativos sobre el producto de las recurrentes olas de contagio estarían siendo cada vez menos fuertes y duraderos. No obstante, la tercera ola de contagio del Covid-19, y en mayor medida los bloqueos a las vías y los problemas de orden público, habrían generado una caída del PIB durante el segundo trimestre, frente al primero. Pese a lo anterior, los datos del índice de seguimiento a la economía (ISE) de abril y mayo han resultado mayores que lo esperado, y las nuevas cifras de actividad económica sectoriales sugieren que el impacto negativo de la pandemia sobre el producto se sigue moderando, en un entorno de menores restricciones a la movilidad y de mayor avance en el ritmo de vacunación. Los registros de transporte de carga (junio) y la demanda de energía no regulada (julio), entre otros, indican una recuperación importante después de los bloqueos en mayo. Con todo lo anterior, el incremento anual del PIB del segundo trimestre se habría situado alrededor del 17,3 % (antes 15,8 %), explicado en gran parte por una base baja de comparación. Para todo 2021 el equipo técnico incrementó su proyección de crecimiento desde un 6 % hasta el 7,5 %. Este pronóstico, que está rodeado de una incertidumbre inusualmente elevada, supone que no se presentarán problemas de orden público y que posibles nuevas olas de contagio del Covid-19 no tendrán efectos negativos adicionales sobre la actividad económica. Frente al pronóstico del informe pasado, la recuperación de la demanda externa, los niveles de precios de algunos bienes básicos que exporta el país y la dinámica de las remesas de trabajadores han sido mejores que las esperadas y seguirían impulsando la recuperación del ingreso nacional en lo que resta del año. A esto se sumaría la aún amplia liquidez internacional, la aceleración en el proceso de vacunación y las bajas tasas de interés, factores que continuarían favoreciendo la actividad económica. La mejor dinámica del primer semestre, que llevó a una revisión al alza en el crecimiento de todos los componentes del gasto, continuaría hacia adelante y, antes de lo esperado en abril, la economía recuperaría los niveles de producción de 2019 a finales de 2021. El pronóstico continúa incluyendo efectos de corto plazo sobre la demanda agregada de una reforma tributaria de magnitud similar a la proyectada por el Gobierno. Con todo eso, en el escenario central de este informe, el pronóstico de crecimiento para 2021 es del 7,5 % y para 2022 del 3,1 %. A pesar de esto, el nivel de la actividad económica seguiría siendo inferior a su potencial. La mejora en estas proyecciones, sin embargo, está rodeada de una alta incertidumbre. En junio la inflación anual (3,63 %) aumentó más de lo esperado debido al comportamiento del grupo de alimentos, mientras que la inflación básica (1,87 %) fue similar a la proyectada. En lo que resta del año el mayor nivel del IPC de alimentos persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta. A finales de 2022 la inflación total y básica retornarían a tasas cercanas al 3 %, en un entorno de desaceleración del IPC de alimentos y de menores excesos de capacidad productiva. En los meses recientes el aumento en los precios internacionales de los fletes y de los bienes agrícolas, y las mayores exportaciones de carne y el ciclo ganadero han ejercido presiones al alza sobre el precio de los alimentos, principalmente de los procesados. A estas fuerzas persistentes se sumaron los bloqueos de las vías nacionales y los problemas de orden público en varias ciudades registrados en mayo y parte de junio, los cuales se reflejaron en una fuerte restricción en la oferta y en un aumento anual no esperado del IPC de alimentos (8,52 %). El grupo de regulados (5,93 %) también se aceleró, debido a la baja base de comparación en los precios de la gasolina y a la disolución de parte de los alivios a las tarifas de servicios públicos otorgados en 2020. Como se proyectaba, la inflación SAR repuntó al 1,87 %, debido a la reactivación de los impuestos indirectos de algunos bienes y servicios eliminados un año atrás, y por las presiones al alza que ejercieron los alimentos sobre las comidas fuera del hogar (CFH), entre otros. En lo que resta del año se espera que el aumento en los alimentos perecederos se revierta, siempre y cuando no se registren nuevos bloqueos duraderos a las vías nacionales. El mayor nivel de precios de los alimentos procesados persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta a finales de año. La inflación SAR continuaría con una tendencia creciente, en la medida en que los excesos de capacidad productiva se sigan cerrando y registraría un aumento transitorio en marzo de 2022, debido principalmente al restablecimiento del impuesto al consumo en las CFH. Con todo esto, para finales de 2021 y 2022 se estima una inflación total del 4,1 % y 3,1 %, y una inflación básica del 2,6 % y 3,2 %, respectivamente. El comportamiento conjunto de los precios del IPC SAR, junto con continuas sorpresas al alza en la actividad económica, son interpretados por el equipo técnico como señales de amplios excesos de capacidad productiva de la economía. Estos persistirían en los siguientes dos años, al final de los cuales la brecha del producto se cerraría. El mayor crecimiento económico sugiere una brecha del producto menos negativa que la estimada hace un trimestre. Sin embargo, el comportamiento de la inflación básica, especialmente en servicios, indica que el PIB potencial se ha recuperado de forma sorpresiva y que los excesos de capacidad siguen siendo amplios, con una demanda agregada afectada de forma persistente. Esta interpretación encuentra soporte en el mercado laboral, en donde persiste un desempleo alto y la recuperación de los empleos perdidos se estancó. Adicionalmente, los aumentos en la inflación en buena medida están explicados por choques de oferta y de costos y por la disolución de algunos alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. Los pronósticos de crecimiento y de inflación descritos son coherentes con una brecha del producto que se cierra más rápido y es menos negativa en todo el horizonte de pronóstico con respecto al informe de abril. No obstante, la incertidumbre sobre los excesos de capacidad es muy alta y es un riesgo sobre el pronóstico. Las perspectivas de las cuentas fiscales de Colombia se deterioraron, Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings (S&P) y Fitch Ratings (Fitch) redujeron su calificación crediticia, los bloqueos y problemas de orden público afectaron el producto y el país enfrentó una nueva ola de contagios de Covid-19 más acentuada y prolongada que las pasadas. Todo lo anterior se ha reflejado en un aumento de las primas de riesgo y en una depreciación del peso frente al dólar. Esto ha ocurrido en un entorno favorable de ingresos externos. Los precios internacionales del petróleo, del café y de otros bienes básicos que exporta el país aumentaron y han contribuido a la recuperación de los términos de intercambio y del ingreso nacional, y han mitigado las presiones al alza sobre las primas de riesgo y la tasa de cambio. En el presente informe se incrementó el precio esperado del petróleo para 2021 a USD 68 por barril (antes USD 61 bl) y para 2022 a USD 66 bl (antes USD 60 bl). Esta mayor senda presenta una convergencia hacia precios menores que los observados recientemente, como resultado de una mayor oferta mundial esperada de petróleo, la cual más que compensaría el incremento en la demanda de este bien básico. Por ende, se supone que el aumento reciente de los precios tiene un carácter transitorio. En el escenario macroeconómico actual se espera que las condiciones financieras internacionales sean algo menos favorables, a pesar de la mejora en los ingresos externos por cuenta de una mayor demanda y unos precios del petróleo y de otros productos de exportación más altos. Frente al informe de abril el crecimiento de la demanda externa fue mejor que el esperado, y las proyecciones para 2021 y 2022 aumentaron del 5,2 % al 6,0 % y del 3,4 % al 3,5 %, respectivamente. En lo corrido del año las cifras de actividad económica muestran una demanda externa más dinámica de la esperada. En los Estados Unidos y China la recuperación del producto ha sido más rápida que la registrada en los países de la región. En estos últimos la reactivación económica ha estado limitada por los rebrotes del Covid-19, las limitaciones en la oferta de vacunas y el poco espacio fiscal para enfrentar la pandemia, entre otros factores. La buena dinámica en el comercio externo de bienes se ha dado en un entorno de deterioro en las cadenas de valor y de un aumento importante en los precios de las materias primas y en el costo de los fletes. En los Estados Unidos la inflación sorprendió al alza y su valor observado y esperado se mantiene por encima de la meta, al tiempo que se incrementó la proyección de crecimiento económico. Con esto, el inicio de la normalización de la política monetaria en ese país se daría antes de lo proyectado. En este informe se estima que el primer incremento en la tasa de interés de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos se dé a finales de 2022 (antes del primer trimestre de 2023). Para Colombia se supone una mayor prima de riesgo frente al informe de abril y se sigue esperando que presente una tendencia creciente, dada la acumulación de deuda pública y externa del país. Todo esto contribuiría a un incremento en el costo del financiamiento externo en el horizonte de pronóstico. La postura expansiva de la política monetaria sigue soportando unas condiciones financieras internas favorables. En el segundo trimestre la tasa de interés interbancaria y el índice bancario de referencia (IBR) se han mantenido acordes con la tasa de interés de política. Las tasas de interés promedio de captación y crédito continuaron históricamente bajas, a pesar de algunos incrementos observados a finales de junio. La cartera en moneda nacional detuvo su desaceleración anual y, entre marzo y junio, el crédito a los hogares se aceleró, principalmente para compra de vivienda. La recuperación de la cartera comercial y de los desembolsos a ese sector fue importante, y se alcanzó de nuevo el elevado saldo observado un año atrás, cuando las empresas requirieron niveles significativos de liquidez para enfrentar los efectos económicos de la pandemia. El riesgo de crédito aumentó, las provisiones se mantienes altas y algunos bancos han retirado de su balance una parte de su cartera vencida. No obstante, las utilidades del sistema financiero se han recuperado y sus niveles de liquidez y solvencia se mantienen por encima del mínimo regulatorio. A partir de este informe se implementará una nueva metodología para cuantificar y comunicar la incertidumbre que rodea los pronósticos del escenario macroeconómico central, en un entorno de política monetaria activa. Esta metodología se conoce como densidades predictivas (DP) y se explica en detalle en el Recuadro 1. Partiendo del balance de riesgos que contiene los principales factores que, de acuerdo con el juicio del equipo técnico, podrían afectar a la economía en el horizonte de pronóstico, la metodología DP produce distribuciones de probabilidad sobre el pronóstico de las principales variables (v. g.: crecimiento, inflación). Estas distribuciones reflejan el resultado de los posibles choques (a variables externas, precios y actividad económica) que podría recibir la economía y su transmisión, considerando la estructura económica y la respuesta de política monetaria en el futuro. En este sentido, permiten cuantificar la incertidumbre alrededor del pronóstico y su sesgo. El ejercicio DP muestra un sesgo a la baja en el crecimiento económico y en la brecha del producto, y al alza en la inflación. El balance de riesgos indica que las disyuntivas para la política monetaria serán potencialmente más complejas que lo contemplado en el pasado. Por el lado de las condiciones de financiamiento externo, se considera que el mayor riesgo es que se tornen un poco menos favorables, en un escenario en el cual la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos incremente con mayor prontitud su tasa de interés. Esto último, ante un crecimiento económico y del empleo mayor que el esperado en los Estados Unidos que genere presiones significativas sobre la inflación de ese país. A esto se suma la incertidumbre sobre el panorama fiscal en Colombia y sus efectos sobre la prima de riesgo y el costo del financiamiento externo. En el caso del crecimiento, la mayoría de los riesgos son a la baja, destacándose los efectos de la incertidumbre política y fiscal sobre las decisiones de consumo e inversión, la aparición de nuevas olas de contagio de la pandemia del Covid-19 y sus impactos sobre la actividad económica. En el caso de la inflación, se incorporó el riesgo de una mayor persistencia de los choques asociados con la disrupción de las cadenas de valor, mayores precios internacionales de las materias primas y de los alimentos, y una recuperación más lenta que la esperada de la cadena agrícola nacional afectada por los pasados bloqueos a las vías. Estos riesgos presionarían al alza principalmente los precios de los alimentos y de los bienes. Como principal riesgo a la baja se incluyó un alza de los arriendos menor que el esperado en el escenario central, explicada por una demanda débil y por una mayor oferta en 2022 dadas las altas ventas de vivienda observadas en el presente año. Con todo, el crecimiento económico presenta un sesgo a la baja y, con el 90 % de confianza, se encontraría entre un 6,1 % y 9,1 % para 2021 y entre el 0,5 % y 4,1 % para 2022. La brecha del producto tendría un sesgo a la baja, principalmente en 2022. El sesgo de la inflación es al alza, y se encontraría entre el 3,7 % y 4,9 % en 2021, y el 2,2 % y 4,7 % en 2022, con un 90 % de probabilidad. 1.2 Decisión de política monetaria En las reuniones de junio y julio la JDBR decidió mantener la tasa de política monetaria inalterada en 1,75 %.

Durante el cuarto trimestre de 2020, los indicadores de actividad económica de la región evidenciaron un mejor desempeño frente al observado en el trimestre anterior; sin embargo, la mayoría de actividades económicas aún mantienen tasas de crecimiento anual negativas. La demanda interna medida a través de las ventas minoristas, y la oferta, a través de la producción agrícola y de algunas industrias, dinamizaron esta recuperación. Dentro de los indicadores laborales, particularmente el número de ocupados continuó con resultados muy inferiores a aquellos previos de la pandemia, al tiempo que la inflación se ubicó por debajo de la meta fijada por el Banco de la República.