Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Marine heatwave-associated mortality“

Marine heatwaves are starting to occur several times a decade, yet we do not understand the effect this has on corals across biological scales. This study combines tissue-, organism-, and community-level analyses to investigate the effects of a marine heatwave on reef-building corals. Adjacent conspecific pairs of coral colonies of Montipora capitata and Porites compressa that showed contrasting phenotypic responses (i.e., bleached vs. not bleached) were first identified during a marine heatwave that occurred in 2015 in Kāne’ohe Bay, Hawai‘ i. These conspecific pairs of bleaching-resistant and bleaching-susceptible colonies were sampled for histology and photographed before, during, and after a subsequent marine heatwave that occurred in 2019. Histology samples were quantified for: (i) abundance of mesenterial filaments, (ii) tissue structural integrity, (iii) clarity of epidermis, and (iv) cellular integrity (lack of necrosis/granulation) on a 1–5 scale and averaged for an overall tissue integrity score. Tissue integrity scores revealed a significant decline in overall tissue health during the 2019 heatwave relative to the months prior to the heatwave for individuals of both species, regardless of past bleaching history in 2015 or bleaching severity during the 2019 heatwave. Coral tissue integrity scores were then compared to concurrent colony bleaching severity, which revealed that tissue integrity was significantly correlated with colony bleaching severity and suggests that the stability of the symbiosis is related to host tissue health. Colony partial mortality was also quantified as the cumulative proportion of each colony that appeared dead 2.5 years following the 2019 bleaching event, and tissue integrity during the heatwave was found to be strongly predictive of the extent of partial mortality following the heatwave for M. capitata but not P. compressa, the latter of which suffered little to no mortality. Surprisingly, bleaching severity and partial mortality were not significantly correlated for either species, suggesting that tissue integrity was a better predictor of mortality than bleaching severity in M. capitata. Despite negative effects of heat stress at the tissue- and colony-level, no significant changes in coral cover were detected, indicating resilience at the community level. However, declines in tissue integrity in response to heat stress that are not accompanied by a visible bleaching response may still have long-term consequences for fitness, and this is an important area of future investigation as heat stress is commonly associated with long-term decreases in coral fecundity and growth. Our results suggest that histology is a valuable tool for revealing the harmful effects of marine heatwaves on corals before they are visually evident as bleaching, and may thus improve the predictability of ecosystem changes following climate change-driven heat stress by providing a more comprehensive assessment of coral health.

Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency, causing disruption to global ecosystems. Large-scale events, such as marine heatwaves, can impact the abundance of prey species, which consequently influences the behaviour of top-level predators such as seabirds. The short-tailed shearwater Ardenna tenuirostris is a trans-hemispheric migrant with typically a highly synchronous breeding phenology. Here, we document short-tailed shearwater colony occupancy for the period 2011-2020, with a focussed assessment of their breeding success in the 2019/20 season, which followed a marine heatwave that occurred predominantly in the non-breeding areas in the North Pacific Ocean. The return of the birds to their breeding colonies in southeast Australia was delayed by approximately 2 wk in October 2019, and the subsequent breeding season ended with only 34% breeding success, with nest abandonment beginning in the incubation phase. A North Pacific marine heatwave in 2019, associated with a mass mortality event of over 9000 birds (‘wreck’ of beach-washed birds), led to reduced adult body condition and carry-over effects causing egg and chick failures during the subsequent breeding season. Localised weather events (i.e. flooding of burrows due to heavy rainfall) also influenced breeding outcomes of the 2019/20 season. The relationship between wreck events and seabird breeding ecology is an understudied area, partly due to the difficulties around quantifying the scale of wrecks. Our study is one of few that documents poor seabird breeding success following the extreme marine conditions which have persisted in the North Pacific Ocean since 2013.

In May 2023, oceanic and atmospheric anomalies indicated El Niño conditions in the eastern Pacific, followed by coral bleaching in coral communities and reefs of Huatulco. We conducted surveys and sampled coral reef communities from late June to mid–August of 2023 to evaluate the intensity and extent of the changes associated with the warming event. From January of 2023, Huatulco experienced positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies; however, beginning in June, the high-temperature anomalies became extreme (>31 °C; ~2 °C above historical records). These high temperatures resulted in extensive coral bleaching in middle–late June and mortality from middle–late July (>50–93%). In addition, the area experienced significant reductions in echinoderm abundance and fish biomass. In 2023, severe bleaching affected coral systems in the Central Mexican Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and Mexican Caribbean, making this the most devastating marine heatwave event, simultaneously impacting coral reefs across Mexico’s Pacific and Atlantic coasts.

Abstract Blooms of the colonial pelagic tunicate Pyrosoma atlanticum in 2014–2018 followed a marine heatwave in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Pyrosome blooms could alter pelagic food webs of the northern California Current (NCC) by accelerating the biological pump via active transport, fecal pellet production and mortality events. Although aggregations of P. atlanticum have the potential to shape marine trophic dynamics via carbon export, little is known about pyrosome vertical distribution patterns. In this study, we estimated the distribution of P. atlanticum in the NCC along transects off of Oregon (45°N and 124°W) and northern California (41°N and 124°W), USA during February and July 2018. Depth-stratified plankton tows provided volume-normalized pyrosome abundance and biovolume estimates that complemented fine-scale counts by a vertically deployed camera system. Pyrosomes were numerous offshore during February, especially off Oregon. Colonies were distributed non-uniformly in the water column with peak numbers associated with vertical gradients in environmental parameters, notably density and chl-a. Vertical distributions shifted over the 24-h period, indicative of diel vertical migration. Understanding the vertical distribution of these gelatinous grazers in the NCC gives insight to their behavior and ecological role in biologically productive temperate ecosystems as conditions become more favorable for recurring blooms.

Extreme environmental fluctuations such as marine heatwaves (MHWs) can have devastating effects on ecosystem health and functioning through rapid population declines and destabilization of trophic interactions. However, recent studies have highlighted that population tolerance to MHWs is variable, with some populations even benefitting from MHWs. A number of factors can explain variation in responses between populations including their genetic variation, previous thermal experience and the cumulative heatwave intensity (°C d) of the heatwave itself. We disentangle the contributions of these factors on population mortality and post-heatwave growth rates by experimentally simulating heatwaves (7.5 or 9.2°C, for up to 9 days) for three genotypes of the Southern Ocean diatom Actinocyclus actinochilus. The effects of simulated heatwaves on mortality and population growth rates varied with genotype, thermal experience and the cumulative intensity of the heatwave itself. Firstly, hotter and longer heatwaves increased mortality and decreased post-heatwave growth rates relative to milder, shorter heatwaves. Secondly, growth above the thermal optimum before heatwaves exacerbated heatwave-associated negative effects, leading to increased mortality during heatwaves and slower growth after heatwaves. Thirdly, hotter and longer heatwaves resulted in more pronounced changes to thermal optima (Topt) immediately following heatwaves. Finally, there is substantial intraspecific variation in post-heatwave growth rates. Our findings shed light on the potential of Southern Ocean diatoms to tolerate MHWs, which will increase both in frequency and in intensity under future climate change.

Abstract As climate change intensifies heatwaves, quantifying associated mortality within ectothermic populations is crucial for effective conservation. Thermal tolerance landscape (TTL) models are useful predictive tools that assume exponentially decreasing survival durations in individuals with increasing temperatures. This assumption has been validated through regression analyses on data from constant temperature experiments, primarily focusing on adult‐stage individuals. However, this approach does not allow for direct model validation with data from dynamic, real‐world heatwave events and overlooks early recruitment stage vulnerabilities. This study aimed to address these gaps using the blue mussel Mytilus, a foundation species forming extensive reefs along temperate coasts, as a model organism. We monitored survival rates of mussels (juveniles and adults) under constant heatwave (CHW) conditions in a laboratory experiment and under dynamic heatwave (DHW) scenarios simulated in an outdoor mesocosm experiment. Post‐heatwaves, we also assessed recruitment rates within the mesocosms. TTL models were parametrised by employing Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte Carlo (ABC‐SMC) on each dataset separately. The parameter distributions were similar across both experiments, and the ABC‐SMC model predictions closely matched the observed survival declines, validating these models. In comparison, we found a lower predictive performance when using a Bayesian regression approach. Additionally, our best‐fit model predicted that warming across the non‐fatal DHW regimes would increase sublethal effects on mussels. The observed impact on the recruitment stage was more pronounced, with the recruitment rate following an exponential decay as sublethal effects increased. Our model projected minor (<4%) sublethal effects in adult mussels during the century's five warmest summer temperature regimes, corresponding to 0%–32% declines in recruitment rates. Our research extends the TTL model validation, demonstrates the resilience of subtidal Baltic Mytilus to future extreme heatwaves and offers an approach to predict heatwave‐induced population mortalities, applicable to other species and sensitive systems. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Defining baseline mortality and trends in wildlife populations is imperative to understand natural and anthropogenic threats to overall population health and improve conservation measures for species, particularly in geographically confined habitats. The Guadalupe fur seal Arctocephalus townsendi (GFS) is a threatened pinniped that ranges throughout the west coast of Mexico with sporadic dispersion to higher latitudes. Their breeding habitat is restricted to Guadalupe Island, Mexico, which is vulnerable to periodic and cyclic warming of the Northeast Pacific Ocean. The impacts of environmental change on GFS health and reproductive success at Guadalupe Island are poorly defined and the aim of this study was to establish baseline pup (GFSn) mortality rates and primary causes of death during the 2013-2016 breeding seasons at Guadalupe Island. Interannual mortality rates and causes of death were compared by year, breeding seasons and by geographic location. The highest mortality rate in GFSn was in 2015 (14.7%), followed by 2014 (8.2%), 2016 (6.7%) and 2013 (5.6%). The presumptive causes of mortality of GFSn were consistent with other published long term otariids health surveys and included: emaciation (49%), trauma (24%), infectious disease (8%), drowning (4%) stillbirth/perinatal mortality (4%) and undetermined (11%). However, in 2015 and coinciding with northeast Pacific marine heatwave in 2014-2016, emaciation accounted for 54% of GFSn mortality in contrast to 9% in 2013. For GFSn, terrestrial habitat may influence mortality rates and causes of mortality but like other marine predators, marine habitat features, such as an increase in sea surface temperature are associated with changes in maternal care, nutritional status and pups survival. Monitoring mortality rate and causes in GFSn at Guadalupe Island is crucial to establish baseline health trends, document potential impacts on species demographics and recruitment during marine heatwaves and potential consequences in population recovery.

Prior to 2015, seabird die-offs in Alaskan waters (Northern Gulf of Alaska, eastern Bering Sea, eastern Chukchi Sea) were rare, typically occurred in mid-winter, and were linked to epizootic disease events (Bodenstein et al., 2015) or above-average ocean temperatures associated with strong El Nino-Southern Oscillation events. An exception was late summer of 1997, a year with unusually warm waters in the southeastern Bering Sea, when possibly as many as 10% of the several million short-tailed shearwaters (Ardenna tenuitortris) present in the area died of starvation because their principal prey, euphausiids, were scarce or hard to find in a widespread coccolithophore bloom (Baduini et al., 2001). Since 2015, such mass mortality events have been annual occurrences. In 2015, between 470,000 and 1.03 million common murres (Uria aalge) were estimated to have died in the Gulf of Alaska due to anomalous ocean conditions and the impacts on forage fish associated with the 2014–2016 Pacific marine heatwave (Piatt et al., 2020; Arimitsu et al., 2021). Another large die-off event occurred during late summer of 2019 (Figure 1), when over 10,000 carcasses of short-tailed shearwaters washed onto beaches of Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula in the southeastern Bering Sea. Total mortality during that summer was likely much greater than reported given the region’s expansive coastline and sparse human population.

We test whether skillful 35-day probabilistic forecasts of estuarine sea surface temperature (SST) are possible and whether these forecasts could potentially be used to reduce the economic damages associated with extreme SST events. Using an ensemble of 35-day retrospective forecasts of atmospheric temperature and a simple model that predicts daily mean SST from past SST and forecast atmospheric temperature, we create an equivalent ensemble of retrospective SST forecasts. We compare these SST forecasts with reference forecasts of climatology and damped persistence and find that the SST forecasts are skillful for up to two weeks in the summer. Then, we post-process the forecasts using nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression and assess whether the resulting calibrated probabilistic forecasts are more accurate than the probability implied by the raw model ensemble. Finally, we use an idealized framework to assess whether these probabilistic forecasts can valuably inform decisions to take protective action to mitigate the effects of extreme temperatures and heatwaves. We find that the probabilistic forecasts provide value relative to a naive climatological forecast for 1-2 weeks of lead time, and the value is particularly high in cases where the cost of protection is small relative to the preventable losses suffered when a heatwave occurs. In most cases, the calibrated probabilistic forecasts are also more valuable than deterministic forecasts based on the ensemble mean and naive probabilistic forecasts based on damped persistence. Probabilistic SST forecasts could provide substantial value if applied to adaptively manage the rapid impacts of extreme SSTs, including managing the risks of catch-and-release mortality in fish and Vibrio bacteria in oysters.

Le changement climatique affecte de plus en plus la vie marine. Les vagues de chaleur marines (MHWs), liées au réchauffement, devraient augmenter en durée, intensité et fréquence, amplifiant leurs impacts sur les écosystèmes marins au 21e siècle. Cette thèse explore les effets du changement climatique et des MHWs sur les flux de biomasse dans les réseaux trophiques marins et leurs conséquences sur la structure et le fonctionnement des écosystèmes. J’ai développé EcoTroph-Dyn, une version dynamique du modèle EcoTroph, représentant le fonctionnement des écosystèmes marins comme un flux de biomasse continu, des producteurs primaires aux prédateurs supérieurs. Basé sur une approche virtuelle d’EcoTroph-Dyn, j'ai mis en évidence que, les MHWs pourraient avoir impacté les flux de biomasse par la perturbation de la cinétique, de l'efficacité de transfert et induire des pertes de biomasse. Ensuite, en utilisant EcoTroph-Dyn, j’ai reconstitué les biomasses des consommateurs marins de 1998 à 2021 en intégrant les variations de température et de production primaire.La biomasse animale marine, estimée à chaque niveau trophique sur une grille mondiale de 1° x 1°, révèle des pertes significatives dues aux MHWs, avec des impacts accentués aux niveaux trophiques supérieurs. Enfin, les projections de la biomasse animale des océans de 1950 à 2100 indiquent que les altérations des flux de biomasse due aux MHWs pourrait entraîner une diminution globale supplémentaire de la biomasse des consommateurs proportionnelle au réchauffement des océans, avec des impacts plus prononcés que ceux dû au changement climatique de fond. Cette thèse démontre que le changement climatique et les MHWs perturbent conjointement les flux de biomasse, réduisant la biomasse océanique future avec des répercussions majeures sur les pêcheries
Intensifying climate change is increasingly affecting marine life in the world's oceans. Extreme events like marine heatwaves (MHWs), associated with climate change, are projected to grow in duration, intensity, and frequency, further impacting marine ecosystems throughout the 21st century. In this dissertation, I investigated the effects of climate change and MHWs on biomass flows in marine food webs and their consequences on ecosystem structure and functioning. I developed a dynamic version of the EcoTroph model, named EcoTroph-Dyn, which represents the functioning of marine ecosystems as a single flow of biomass from primary producers to top predators. To study MHW effects using EcoTroph-Dyn, I estimated MHW-induced mortality from 1982 to 2021 based on the thermal preferences of various taxa. The results reveal that MHWs may have impacted biomass flow through the perturbation of the kinetics of biomassflow and transfer efficiency and caused biomass loss through instantaneous mortality. Secondly, using EcoTroph-Dyn, I hindcasted consumer biomass in marine food webs from 1998 to 2021. By integrating changes in temperature and primary production, marine animal biomass was estimated at each trophic level on a 1° x 1° grid of the global ocean. Findings show significant biomass loss due to MHWs, with more pronounced impacts at higher trophic levels. Finally, projections from 1950 to 2100 indicate that MHW-induced changes in biomass flows could drive a global consumer biomass decline, surpassing the impacts of background climate change. Overall, this dissertation demonstrates that climate change and MHWs jointly disrupt biomass flows in marine ecosystems, leading to reduced future ocean animal biomass with direct repercussions on fisheries