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Stoutenburg, Gregory. "THE EPISTEMIC ANALYSIS OF LUCK." Episteme 12, no. 3 (2015): 319–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/epi.2014.35.
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AbstractDuncan Pritchard has argued that luck is fundamentally a modal notion: an event is lucky when it occurs in the actual world, but does not occur in more than half of the relevant nearby possible worlds. Jennifer Lackey has provided counterexamples to accounts which, like Pritchard's, only allow for the existence of improbable lucky events. Neil Levy has responded to Lackey by offering a modal account of luck which attempts to respect the intuition that some lucky events occur in more than half of the relevant nearby possible worlds. But his account rejects that events which are as likely as those in Lackey's examples are lucky. Instead, they are merely fortunate. I argue that Levy's argument to this effect fails. I then offer a substitute account of the improbability condition which respects this intuition. This condition says that the relevant notion of probability for luck is epistemic.
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Chernyak, Alexey Z. "Knowledge and Luck." Epistemology & Philosophy of Science 57, no. 2 (2020): 61–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.5840/eps202057222.
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There is a widely shared belief in contemporary epistemology that propositional knowledge is incompatible with certain kinds of luck, most of all with so called veritic luck. A subject is veritically lucky in his or her belief that p if this belief is true not due to its foundations (for example, reasons which an agent has to believe that p) but by mere accident. The acceptance of the thesis of incompatibility of knowledge with this kind of luck led to significant modifications of a popular modern epistemological tripartite analysis of propositional knowledge according to which subject knows that p if and only if he or she believes that p is true, p is actually true, and an agent’s belief that p is true is justified. In his famous paper “Is True Justified Belief Knowledge” E. Gettier demonstrated that true justified belief may not be knowledge. The core of the problem is that in the cases described by Gettier and the like an agent’s belief, though justified, is true by accident. This gave rise to a set of theories introducing additional conditions of knowledge which could exclude veritic luck. In this paper the author critically discusses main modifications of the tripartite concept of knowledge aimed at making it independent on veritic luck, and show that they are unable to solve this problem. He agrees with those who think that the very thesis of incompatibility of knowledge with veritic luck is wrong. But he disagrees that all kinds of veritic luck are compatible with knowledge: the author supposes that good veritic luck is compatible with knowledge only when it compensates some negative effect of antecedent bad epistemic luck. According to this view original Gettier examples are not cases of knowledge whereas broken-clocks case and fake-barns case are. This account allows treating many classic cases of dependence of knowledge on luck as cases of knowledge-acquirement, but in the same time it excludes the inclusion into the class of knowledge such intuitively irrelevant outcomes as lucky guess and wishful thinking.
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Teigen, Karl Halvor, and Tine K. Jensen. "Unlucky Victims or Lucky Survivors?" European Psychologist 16, no. 1 (2011): 48–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1027/1016-9040/a000033.
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Subjective experiences of good or bad luck appear to depend upon downward or upward comparisons with close counterfactuals. People exposed to disasters have both options: They were at the wrong place at the wrong time, but their fate could in many cases have been worse; so in a sense, they are unlucky victims, but lucky survivors. Interviews with 85 Norwegian tourists 9–11 months after they had been exposed to the tsunami disaster in Southeast Asia showed good luck to be a pivotal theme in a majority of the narratives. Nobody claimed they had been unfortunate or unlucky. Moreover, downward counterfactual thoughts and downward comparisons with others occurred 10 times more often than upward counterfactuals and upward comparisons. In a follow-up 2 years later, 95% answered they had been lucky. A contextual analysis revealed several facets of luck, including its relation to gratitude, guilt, and supernatural beliefs.
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Wilhelm, Isaac. "A statistical analysis of luck." Synthese 197, no. 2 (2018): 867–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11229-018-1745-4.
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ELVIDGE, SEAN. "THE LUCK IN “TALENT VERSUS LUCK” MODELING." Advances in Complex Systems 23, no. 03 (2020): 2050007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219525920500071.
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This paper further investigates the Talent versus Luck (TvL) model described by [Pluchino et al. Talent versus luck: The role of randomness in success and failure, Adv. Complex Syst. 21 (2018) 1850014] which models the relationship between ‘talent’ and ‘luck’ on the impact of an individuals career. It is shown that the model is very sensitive to both random sampling and the choice of value for the input parameters. Running the model repeatedly with the same set of input parameters gives a range of output values of over 50% of the mean value. The sensitivity of the inputs of the model is analyzed using a variance-based approach based upon generating Sobol sequences of quasi-random numbers. When using the model to look at the talent associated with an individual who has the maximum capital over a model run it has been shown that the choice for the standard deviation of the talent distribution contributes to 67% of the model variability. When investigating the maximum amount of capital returned by the model the probability of a lucky event at any given epoch has the largest impact on the model, almost three times more than any other individual parameter. Consequently, during the analysis of the model results one must keep in mind the impact that only small changes in the input parameters can have on the model output.
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CLARKE, STEVE. "Luck and miracles." Religious Studies 39, no. 4 (2003): 471–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0034412503006619.
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In another paper published here, I criticized Stephen Mumford's causation-based analysis of miracles on the grounds of its failure to produce results that are consistent with ordinary intuitions. In a response to me, intended as a defence of Mumford's position, Morgan Luck finds fault with my rival approach to miracles on three grounds. In this response to Luck I argue that all three of his criticisms miss their mark. My response to Luck's final line of criticism helps shed light on the difference between my approach to the definition of miracles and that due to Mumford. While my approach is driven by both metaphysical and epistemological considerations, Mumford's approach appears to be driven exclusively by metaphysical considerations.
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Fry, Mary D. "A Developmental Analysis of Children’s and Adolescents’ Understanding of Luck and Ability in the Physical Domain." Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology 22, no. 2 (2000): 145–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1123/jsep.22.2.145.
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Using Nicholls’ developmental component as a framework, the purpose of this study was to examine children’s understanding of luck and ability in the physical domain. Children (N = 144, 8 boys and 8 girls at each age from 5 to 13 years) enrolled in public schools participated individually in a 30-min session in which they were shown 2 similar games; one required luck and the other required skill to perform successfully. Participants received an explanation of the games and were told of youngsters who had tried unsuccessfully to play them. Participants were interviewed, and their responses were analyzed via a Piagetian structural developmental method. Results revealed that the 4 levels of understanding of luck and ability Nicholls and Miller (1985) described were relevant to the physical domain. Furthermore, the Spearman rho coefficient indicated a strong positive relationship between children’s age and their level of understanding of luck and ability.
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Stoutenburg, Gregory. "Luck, Knowledge, and Epistemic Probability." Logos & Episteme 11, no. 1 (2020): 97–109. http://dx.doi.org/10.5840/logos-episteme20201116.
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Epistemic probability theories of luck come in two versions. They are easiest to distinguish by the epistemic property they claim eliminates luck. One view says that the property is knowledge. The other view says that the property is being guaranteed by a subject’s evidence. Asbjørn Steglich-Petersen defends the Knowledge Account (KA). He has recently argued that his view is preferable to my Epistemic Analysis of Luck (EAL), which defines luck in terms of evidential probability. In this paper, I defend EAL against Steglich-Petersen’s arguments, clarify the view, and argue for the explanatory significance of EAL with respect to some core epistemological issues. My overall goal is to show that an epistemic probability account of luck rooted in the concepts of evidence and evidential support remains a viable and fruitful overall account of luck.
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CHALLET, DAMIEN, ALESSANDRO PLUCHINO, ALESSIO EMANUELE BIONDO, and ANDREA RAPISARDA. "THE ORIGINS OF EXTREME WEALTH INEQUALITY IN THE TALENT VERSUS LUCK MODEL." Advances in Complex Systems 23, no. 02 (2020): 2050004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219525920500046.
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While wealth distribution in the world is highly skewed and heavy-tailed, human talent — as the majority of individual features — is normally distributed. In a recent computational study by Pluchino et al. [Talent vs luck: The role of randomness in success and failure, Adv. Complex Syst. 21(03–04) (2018) 1850014], it has been shown that the combined effects of both random external factors (lucky and unlucky events) and multiplicative dynamics in capital accumulation are able to clarify this apparent contradiction. We introduce here a simplified version (STvL) of the original Talent versus Luck (TvL) model, where only lucky events are present, and verify that its dynamical rules lead to the same very large wealth inequality. We also derive some analytical approximations aimed to capture the mechanism responsible for the creation of such wealth inequality from a Gaussian-distributed talent. Under these approximations, our analysis is able to reproduce quite well the results of the numerical simulations of the simplified model in special cases. On the other hand, it also shows that the complexity of the model lies in the fact that lucky events are transformed into an increase of capital with heterogeneous rates, which yields a nontrivial generalization of the role of multiplicative processes in generating wealth inequality, whose fully generic case is still not amenable to analytical computations.
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Bondy, Patrick. "Revisiting Anti-Luck Epistemology." Southwest Philosophy Review 35, no. 1 (2019): 107–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.5840/swphilreview201935111.
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According to anti-luck approaches to the analysis of knowledge, knowledge is analyzed as unlucky true belief, or unlucky justified true belief. According to virtue epistemology, on the other hand, knowledge is true belief which a subject has acquired or maintained because of the exercise of a relevant cognitive ability. ALE and VE both appear to have difficulty handling some intuitive cases where subjects have or lack knowledge, so Pritchard (2012) proposed that we should take an anti-luck condition and a success-from-ability condition as independent necessary conditions on knowledge. Recently, Carter and Peterson (2017) have argued that Pritchard’s modal notion of luck needs to be broadened. My aim in this paper is to show that, with the modal conception of luck appropriately broadened, it is no longer clear that ALE needs to be supplemented with an independent ability condition in order to handle the problematic Gettier cases.
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Zhou, Geng. "The Eco-discourse Analysis of The Joy Luck Club." English Literature and Language Review, no. 56 (June 15, 2019): 103–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.32861/ellr.56.103.110.
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This paper spotlights one of the most influential Chinese American novels, ‘The Joy Luck Club’. Broadly adhering to the principles and orientations of Eco-discourse analysis and using Halliday’s systemic-functional grammar as a framework of analysis, this study uncovers ideologies pointing to an asymmetrical power structure between the mother and the daughter and discusses the underlying Chinese philosophy of mother, which helps daughter find her genuine identity. This paper concludes with revealing the true contradiction behind the conflict of mother-daughter, i.e., the two distinct value systems, and expect people to think and act ecologically, promoting the development of eastern eco-ideology.
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Chantal, Yves, and Robert J. Vallerand. "Skill versus luck: A motivational analysis of gambling involvement." Journal of Gambling Studies 12, no. 4 (1996): 407–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf01539185.
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Masi, Francesca Guadalupe. "Le cause della fortuna: un'aporia. Aristotele, Fisica B 5.197a20-25." Elenchos 34, no. 1 (2013): 127–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/elen-2013-340106.
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AbstractIn this paper I will examine a difficulty (aporia), which Aristotle raises in Physics B 5.197a20-25: whether fortuitous things can be held as causes of luck. I will show the meaning of the passage and its relevance within the context of Aristotelian extended analysis of the notions of ``luck'' and ``chance''. I will claim that, in facing the problem, Aristotle has a twofold aim. Firstly, he wants to explain why luck is, after having enquired whether it exists and what it is. Secondly, he wants to prevent his pupils, among others, from denying causal efficacy to luck, by reducing fortuitous events, that are the result of accidental causes, to the action of per se causes, such as nature and human deliberation.
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Ozeran, Megan, and Piper Martin. "“Good Night, Good Day, Good Luck”." Information Technology and Libraries 38, no. 2 (2019): 49–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.6017/ital.v38i2.10921.
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This article presents the results of a pilot project that tested the application of algorithmic topic modeling to chat reference conversations. The outcomes for this project included determining if this method could be used to identify the most common chat topics in a semester and whether these topics could inform library services beyond chat reference training. After reviewing the literature, four topic modeling algorithms were successfully implemented using Python code: (1) LDA, (2) phrase-LDA, (3) DMM, and (4) NMF. Analysis of the top ten topics from each algorithm indicated that LDA, phrase-LDA, and NMF show the most promise for future analysis on larger sets of data (from three or more semesters) and for examining different facets of the data (fall versus spring semester, different time of day, just the patron side of the conversation).
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Fitzgerald, Angela, and Noeleen McNamara. "Mentoring dyads in higher education: It feels lucky, but it's more than luck." International Journal of Mentoring and Coaching in Education 10, no. 3 (2021): 355–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijmce-12-2020-0088.
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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the formation, maintenance and sustenance of a mentoring dyad in higher education. By investigating the reflections of a female mentor and mentee, who both engaged in a formal Mentoring Program, the intention is to inform the design of future programs and expectations of participants, enhance the quality of future practice and understand the benefits mentoring might offer to the academic community.Design/methodology/approachThe researchers utilised a self-study research design to explore their reflections of a mentoring dyad in higher education. The project was informed by a personal–constructivist–collaborative approach, with participants maintaining journals throughout the partnership. These reflections were then compared in order to understand the perceptions of the participants as their relationship developed.FindingsSix themes emerged from the analysis representing the mentoring dyad experience under three categories: (1) forming – making the match, (2) maintaining – flexibility, responsiveness, and persistence, and (3) sustaining – desire to not disappoint and reciprocal learning.Research limitations/implicationsWhile this paper focuses on the experiences of two participants, the in-depth nature of this exploration draws out significant practical considerations that can be applied to the development and/or reinvigoration of formal mentoring programs and/mentoring dyads in other contexts.Originality/valueThese unique insights into their mentoring dyad over a significant period of time add to this dynamic body of knowledge. This study gives voice to female academics and lays bare their vulnerability and openness in sharing their lived experiences of participating in a formal mentoring program.
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Bekkering, Denis J. "Of “Lucky Loonies” and “Golden Pucks”." Studies in Religion/Sciences Religieuses 44, no. 1 (2014): 55–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0008429814548172.
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This article re-examines the concept of Canadian civil religion through an analysis of three items of hockey memorabilia: the game-winning puck from the 1972 “Summit Series” between Canada and the former Soviet Union, the “Lucky Loonie” buried beneath the ice during the 2002 Winter Olympics, and the “Golden Puck” scored by Sidney Crosby in the 2010 Winter Olympics. Born during exceptional moments of collective national attention, it is argued that the civil religiosity of these hockey relics lies in the tension between their status as a testament to the values and virtues of Canada’s hockey heroes, and their embodiment of a mysterious secular grace, colloquially referred to as “luck.”
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Tarasova, Larisa Vladimirovna, and Maria Kostrova. "The “happiness” concept in the Japanese and English cultures: comparative analysis." SHS Web of Conferences 122 (2021): 01006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202112201006.
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The study aims at examining the concept of “happiness” and its manifestations in Japanese and English. At the same time, there is no task to highlight specific features of the conceptual sphere in Great Britain, the USA and Australia. The main emphasis is placed on the comparative aspect, which also conditioned the use of the comparative method in the article. When describing the semantic field of the “happiness” concept in the Japanese culture, it is important to consider the influence of hieroglyphs borrowed from China, values and ideas about the organization of social life, the role of traditional beliefs, everyday magic and kotodama (the soul of language). Finally, it is worth mentioning the broad synonymous content of the “happiness” conceptual field in the dictionary “Ruigo reikai jiten”. It combines the native Japanese 幸せ shiawase “happiness” and 幸い saiwai with the Sinicisms containing the hieroglyphs 福 fuku and 幸運 ko:un “luck”. At the same time, 運 un “fate, luck” is among the following synonyms: 天命 tenmei (“destined by the sky”), 命運 meiun and others, representing the concept of “fate”. In the course of the study, the authors have emphasized the influence of ethical ideas contained in the axiologeme do:toku 道徳 and the desire for harmony on the Japanese culture. In the English-speaking cultures, this ethical component becomes secondary in comparison with materially expressed success and luck, the principle of preserving one’s own freedom and independence. However, the impact of time (globalization, Internet communication, the dominance of English) gradually led not only to the emergence of Anglicisms in the Japanese culture but also to a change in the content of significant concepts, in particular the concept of “happiness”.
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Stout, Nathan. "Ticking Bombs and Moral Luck: An Analysis of Ticking Bomb Methodology." Human Rights Review 12, no. 4 (2011): 487–504. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12142-011-0199-6.
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Carrasco, Maria A. "La influencia de la teoría de las pasiones de Hume en el juicio moral de Adam Smith." Filosofia Unisinos 21, no. 3 (2020): 268–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.4013/fsu.2020.213.04.
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The analysis of the irregular moral sentiments that Smith describes in TMS II.iii evidences the enormous influence of David Hume’s theory of passions in the moral theory of his successor, as well as the critical differences between these Scottish philosophers’ moral proposals. Moreover, these atypical situations also allow us to grasp the different parts of Smithian moral judgment, and to exclude – despite Smith’s assertion – the influence of moral luck on these judgments.Keywords: Adam Smith, David Hume, moral judgment, passions, moral luck.
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Sekatskaya, Maria A. "Libertarian Volition and the Problem of Luck." Epistemology & Philosophy of Science 57, no. 4 (2020): 87–106. http://dx.doi.org/10.5840/eps202057460.
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The most important difference between contemporary compatibilist and libertarian theories is not the difference in their positions regarding the truth of the thesis of physical determinism, but their different approaches to the causal role of agents. According to libertarians, volitional acts performed by agents constitute a specific type of causes, which are not themselves caused by other causes. In this respect, event-causal libertarianism is similar to the agent-causal libertarianism, because it insists that in performing a volitional act an agent can choose one of the alternative outcomes without being caused to do so by anything else, where ‘anything else’ includes all the facts about the past and the present. Since event-causal libertarians maintain that volitional acts and the causal role of agents can be explained naturalistically, they must solve the problem of luck, i.e., they must explain how an agent is able to control her choices, given that she can choose one way or another without there being any difference in her state immediately preceding the moment of choice. This problem arises not from the indeterminism per se, but from the way it is coupled with the causal role of agents.In section one, I consider the historical development of compatibilist views on physical determinism and indeterminism. In section two, I present an overview of conditional analyses of alternative possibilities. In section three, I analyze the reasons why libertarians reject any type of conditional analysis, and show that intuitive objections against physical determinism, which portrait it as an obstacle to freedom, are untenable. In section four, I consider the consequence argument and show how it is related to the libertarian condition of sourcehood. In the final section, I analyze the problem of luck and show that it inevitably arises for any version of libertarianism. I demonstrate that indeterminism is a problem for libertarians, although they need it. And it is not a problem for compatibilists, who, while they do not need it, can incorporate it in their theories without facing the problem of luck.
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Luis Barbosa dos Santos, Andre. "Executive Compensation and Relative Performance Evaluation Relationship Analysis." Behavior Studies in Organizations 4 (December 2020): 15–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.32038/jbso.2020.04.02.
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The research objective is to verify if the variable compensation of executives is established based on the relative performance evaluation, based on their abilities, or if there is the so-called "lucky payment", in which they are benefited or harmed by oscillations that affect the entire market. The literature shows that variable remuneration is characterized as one of the main mechanisms to align interests between investors and executives. In Brazil, there is evidence of a relationship between variable remuneration and managers' performance, but a gap to be filled consists of identifying whether or not such remuneration disregards the systematic component of performance, linked to movements and shocks that affect the entire sector. The sample comprises the listed companies listed in B3, except those operating in regulated segments, such as financial institutions and public utilities. The period of analysis comprises the years 2010 to 2015, where the information on remuneration is now disclosed through the Reference Form. After self-selection control, because of companies that filed injunctions to avoid disclosure of executive compensation, evidence indicates that executives are usually paid "by luck." Only when the market performs negatively and the executive performs above it is that relative performance employed. The research assists in a better understanding of the remuneration policy of Brazilian organizations, complementing other research on the temporal aspect and the comparison of the peers' performances in the sectors.
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Calin-Jageman, Robert J., and Tracy L. Caldwell. "Replication of the Superstition and Performance Study by." Social Psychology 45, no. 3 (2014): 239–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1027/1864-9335/a000190.
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A recent series of experiments suggests that fostering superstitions can substantially improve performance on a variety of motor and cognitive tasks ( Damisch, Stoberock, & Mussweiler, 2010 ). We conducted two high-powered and precise replications of one of these experiments, examining if telling participants they had a lucky golf ball could improve their performance on a 10-shot golf task relative to controls. We found that the effect of superstition on performance is elusive: Participants told they had a lucky ball performed almost identically to controls. Our failure to replicate the target study was not due to lack of impact, lack of statistical power, differences in task difficulty, nor differences in participant belief in luck. A meta-analysis indicates significant heterogeneity in the effect of superstition on performance. This could be due to an unknown moderator, but no effect was observed among the studies with the strongest research designs (e.g., high power, a priori sampling plan).
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Bottazzi, Giulio, and Daniele Giachini. "Betting, Selection, and Luck: A Long-Run Analysis of Repeated Betting Markets." Entropy 21, no. 6 (2019): 585. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e21060585.
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We consider a repeated betting market populated by two agents who wage on a binary event according to generic betting strategies. We derive new simple criteria, based on the difference of relative entropies, to establish the relative wealth of the two agents in the long-run. Little information about agents’ behavior is needed to apply the criteria: it is sufficient to know the odds traders believe fair and how much they would bet when the odds are equal to the ones the other agent believes fair. Using our criteria, we show that for a large class of betting strategies, it is generically possible that the ultimate winner is only decided by luck. As an example, we apply our conditions to the case of Constant Relative Risk Averse (CRRA) and quantal response betting.
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Depken II, Craig A., and Paul R. Dorasil. "The Luck of the Texan: An Empirical Analysis of Texas Lottery Games." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 1, no. 3 (2013): 171–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v1i3.518.
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This paper provides an empirical analysis of the relationships between three popular lottery games in the state of Texas: Lotto Texas, Texas Two Step, and the multi-state Mega Millions game. The analysis suggests complementarity between the Lotto Texas and Mega Millions; habitual players tend to play relatively safer games; the 2006 Lotto Texas rule change decreased revenue substantially; and that only at low effective ticket prices do players purchase more tickets for high stakes/low odds games. We simulate the effective prices at which two games would sell the same number of tickets in the state of Texas. The results suggest that Mega Millions and Lotto Texas are expected to sell more tickets than Texas Two Step, and that Lotto Texas is expected to sell more tickets than Mega Millions at all feasible price levels.
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Matravers, Matt. "Responsibility, Luck, and the ‘Equality of what?’ Debate." Political Studies 50, no. 3 (2002): 558–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-9248.00385.
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Ronald Dworkin's recently published book, Sovereign Virtue (hereafter SV), appeals to arguments that are popular within, and ideas that are fundamental to, liberal egalitarianism. These arguments and ideas need to be distinguished and unpacked. The purpose of this paper is partly to do this and to cast doubt on the adequacy of various moves made by Dworkin. In addition, and more importantly I argue that the analysis of the ‘equality of what?’ debate reveals a tension at the heart of contemporary liberal egalitarianism between the Kantian aspiration to eliminate luck and the contemporary aspiration to do political philosophy without metaphysics.
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CAMPBELL, STEPHEN M. "An Analysis of Prudential Value." Utilitas 25, no. 3 (2013): 334–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0953820812000581.
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This essay introduces and defends a new analysis of prudential value. According to this analysis, what it is for something to be good for you is for that thing to contribute to the appeal or desirability of being in your position. I argue that this proposal fits well with our ways of talking about prudential value and well-being; enables promising analyses of luck, selfishness, self-sacrifice and paternalism; preserves the relationship between prudential value and the attitudes of concern, love, pity and envy; and satisfies various other desiderata. I also highlight two ways in which the analysis is informative and can lead to progress in our substantive theorizing about the good life.
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Benati, Luca, and Paolo Surico. "VAR Analysis and the Great Moderation." American Economic Review 99, no. 4 (2009): 1636–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.4.1636.
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Most analyses of the US Great Moderation are based on structural VARs, and point toward good luck as the main explanation for the recent macroeconomic stability. Based on an estimated New-Keynesian model where the only source of change is the move from passive to active monetary policy, we show that (i) the theoretical VAR innovation variances for all series decrease across regimes; (ii) VAR-based counterfactuals assign a minor role to improved policy; and (iii) VAR impulse-response functions to a monetary shock exhibit little variation across regimes. Our analysis suggests that existing VAR evidence is also compatible with the “good policy” hypothesis. (JEL C32, C52, E13, E52, N12)
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Huang, Li-Shia, and Ching-I. Teng. "Development of a Chinese Superstitious Belief Scale." Psychological Reports 104, no. 3 (2009): 807–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.2466/pr0.104.3.807-819.
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Traditional Western superstitious beliefs, such as black cats and the number 13 bringing bad luck, may not be applicable to different cultures. This study develops a Chinese Superstitious Belief Scale by conducting two studies with 363 and 395 participants, respectively. Exploratory factor analysis was used to construct the scale and then structural equation modeling was applied to verify its reliability and validity. The scale contains six dimensions, Homonym, Traditional customs, Power of crystal, Horoscope, feng-shui, and luck for gambling. Findings are helpful for understanding the difference between Chinese superstitions and the traditional Western superstitions and permits subsequent development of sociopsychological theories on correlates and effects of Chinese superstitions.
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Makshantseva, Anna. "Word-Formative Specificity of the Objectification of the Concept “Udacha” (“Luck”) in Modern Russian Language." Nizhny Novgorod Linguistics University Bulletin, no. 49 (March 31, 2020): 52–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.47388/2072-3490/lunn2020-49-1-52-68.
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The article presents an attempt at cognitive linguistic analysis of the Russian cultural concept udacha (“luck”). Its primary goal is to describe derivational properties of the concept’s explication in the language through conceptual analysis of derived lexemes that belong to the family of words based on the verb udat’sya (“to succeed”). This will enable us to more precisely specify the concept’s meaning which was identified at the previous stage of the research. The material for the research was taken from basic Russian explanatory and word-formative dictionaries, and its methodological foundations include theoretical principles of language conceptualization of the world, general tenets of the anthropocentric approach to linguistic description, and ideas of reconstruction of culturally significant information through the data of a language. In her work, the author used the method of conceptual analysis developed by research teams and schools of thought in Volgograd, Voronezh, Nizhniy Novgorod, and Tambov, and the method of linguo-culturological interpretation of word-formative phenomena. The findings include verification and a more precise description of ten cognitive characteristics of the concept udacha (“luck”) revealed at the previous stage of the analysis, such as: “a favorable combination of circumstances,” “a desirable result, the right outcome of a case, success,” “a fortunate turn of events,” “happiness”, “one who can do anything, who succeeds in everything”, “creative accomplishment,” “a great achievement in some activities, success,ˮ “realization of a favorable opportunity,ˮ “something good,ˮ and “imparting or inheriting favorable, positive properties or attributes.ˮ Four new normative-evaluative and modal-evaluative cognitive characteristics have also been detected: “compliance with the necessary requirements, conditions,ˮ “something true, right,ˮ “appreciation of actions, deeds, events as accompanied by success, as leading to the desired result,ˮ and “hope for a favorable occasion without any effort, prior thinking or planningˮ. As a result, at the current stage of the research, the aggregate meaning extension of the concept udacha (“luck”) contains the total of fourteen cognitive characteristics. The author has come to the conclusion that the significant volume and complicated semantic organization of the family of words under analysis can be seen as objective language evidence of substantial cultural development of the concept udacha (“luck”) in the Russian language picture of the world.
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Sharifian, Farzad, and Mehri Bagheri. "Conceptualisations of xoshbaxti (‘happiness / prosperity’) and baxt (‘fate / luck’) in Persian." Journal of Historical Pragmatics 20, no. 1 (2019): 78–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1075/jhp.16006.sha.
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Abstract This paper explores conceptualisations of xoshbaxti (‘happiness / prosperity’) and baxt (‘fate / luck’) in Persian, adopting a combined historical and contemporary analysis. The expression xoshbaxti consists of the free morphemes xosh (‘pleasant’) and baxt (‘fate’). The root of baxt originates from the Proto-Indo-European language (bʰeh₂g). An historical analysis returning all the way to the Proto-Indo-Iranian religion shows that the concept of baxt captured the idea of a pre-determined destiny by conceptualising Bhaga as a god who dispenses fortune. Data from a number of Persian encyclopaedias, dictionaries and weblogs, as well as a word association task carried out by a group of speakers of Persian, revealed that xoshbaxti in contemporary Persian is largely associated with what is considered to be a “good” married life. Overall, the findings of this study illustrate the usefulness of combining diachronic and synchronic approaches when analysing cultural conceptualisations. The study also shows that attempts to trace the historical roots of cultural conceptualisations may benefit from insights gained in other fields, such as the history of religions. In this context, the multidisciplinary nature of the newly developed field of Cultural Linguistics provides an effective basis for cross-disciplinary openness, which has the potential to deepen the scope of analyses undertaken.
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Simorangkir, Iskandar. "PENYEBAB BANK RUNS DI INDONESIA: BAD LUCK ATAU FUNDAMENTAL?" Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 14, no. 1 (2011): 51–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v14i1.456.
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Bank runs and banking crisis has been a global cycling phenomenon both in developed and developing countries. This paper provide comprehensive analysis of the bank run determinant in Indonesia, including the economic fundamental, bank performance and self fulfilling prophecy during the period of 1990-2005, using the dynamic panel estimation of Arrelano-Bond. The Result shows that the self-fulfilling prophecy, bank performance (rentability, non performing loan) and macroeconomic condition (output growth, inflation and real interest rate), determine the bank runs in Indonesia. This conclusion is robust both for the sample period of 1997-1998 and 1990-2005. Klasifikasi JEL: C29, C33, G21Keywords: Bank runs, banking crisis, dynamic panel estimation, Arrelano-Bond, Indonesia
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Makshantseva, Anna L. "Udacha vs Udal’ in the Linguistic Objectification of the Russian Cultural Concept of Luck." Vestnik of Northern (Arctic) Federal University. Series Humanitarian and Social Sciences, no. 5 (October 10, 2020): 59–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.37482/2227-6564-v049.
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This article discusses the results of an intralinguistic comparative analysis of the lexemes udacha (‘luck’) and udal’ (‘courage’) as a part of the complex linguoculturological description of the concept “udacha” (‘luck’) in the Russian national conceptual sphere according to the language data. The paper aimed to analyse the conceptual convergence and divergence of the lexemes udacha and udal’ that form the historical-etymological area of this concept’s entire range of meanings. For materials, the author turned to Russian etymological and explanatory dictionaries as well as to the Russian National Corpus. The conceptual analysis methodology applied in this paper is based on methods adopted by the Voronezh and Nizhny Novgorod schools of thought. The scientific value of this article consists in introducing such a new research subject as the conceptual pair udacha – udal’ in the Russian linguistic worldview. It is demonstrated that in the historical-etymological area of the meanings of the concept of luck, an important place is occupied by the age-old link between udacha and udal’ that is confirmed by their common genesis and a significant convergence of meanings. The author comes to the conclusion that the Russian words udacha and udal’ comprise an interdependent unity: udacha reflects the objective aspect of all the good things that can happen in one’s life, while udal’ expresses the subjective aspect, i.e. personal traits facilitating successful self-fulfilment. This paper makes a certain contribution to the theory and practice of the comprehensive linguoculturological synchronic-diachronic analysis of cultural concepts based on cognitive linguistics. In terms of practical value, the results of the research can be used for teaching linguoculturological disciplines at universities and for compiling conceptual dictionaries and linguoculturological thesauri.
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Makschantseva, Anna L. "Models of Conceptual Metaphorization of Word “Udacha” [Luck] in Context of Linguistic Objectification of the Concept in Russian." Nauchnyi dialog, no. 7 (July 30, 2020): 126–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.24224/2227-1295-2020-7-126-141.
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One of the aspects of the complex linguo-cognitive description of the concept UDACHA (LUCK) and the features of its linguistic representation in Russian speech is presented in the article. Attention is paid to the discourse actualization of models of conceptual metaphorization of the word luck as a basic representative of the concept of the same name. The aim of the research is to analyze cognitive models and conceptual schemes of metaphorical reification and animation of the concept UDACHA, actualized in contexts. The research material was extracted from the Russian National Corpus and collected in the course of the Internet monitoring conducted by the author of the article. The method of research is the procedure of conceptual analysis adopted in the Nizhny Novgorod school of concept research. The question is raised that the rethinking of abstract entities through concrete-sensory representations is generally characteristic of the folk-mythological perception of the world, presented in the “naive” picture of the world, reflected in natural language. It is shown that in metaphorical models of reification, luck is figuratively represented as an inanimate concrete-sensual object, as a point localized in space, as a substance, as a container (receptacle), as a physical environment. It has also been established that in metaphorical models of animation and / or personification, luck is metaphorically represented either in general as a living, actively acting entity, or as a supernatural or human being. It is concluded that in the Russian linguistic consciousness, the cognitive schemes of the linguistic conceptualization of the world are active and stable, which arose at the early stages of the spiritual evolution of the Russian world and have a centuries-old tradition not only in Russian, but also in world culture.
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Björk, Jonas, Tomas Andersson, and Anders Ahlbom. "Commonly used estimates of the genetic contribution to disease are subject to the same fallacies as bad luck estimates." European Journal of Epidemiology 34, no. 11 (2019): 987–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10654-019-00573-8.
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Abstract The scientific debate following the initial formulation of the “bad luck” hypothesis in cancer development highlighted how measures based on analysis of variance are inappropriately used for risk communication. The notion of “explained” variance is not only used to quantify randomness, but also to quantify genetic and environmental contribution to disease in heritability coefficients. In this paper, we demonstrate why such quantifications are generally as problematic as bad luck estimates. We stress the differences in calculation and interpretation between the heritability coefficient and the population attributable fraction, the estimated fraction of all disease events that would not occur if an intervention could successfully prevent the excess genetic risk. We recommend using the population attributable fraction when communicating results regarding the genetic contribution to disease, as this measure is both more relevant from a public health perspective and easier to understand.
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Wnęk, Agnieszka, Dawid Kudas, and Premysl Stych. "National Level Land-Use Changes in Functional Urban Areas in Poland, Slovakia, and Czechia." Land 10, no. 1 (2021): 39. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land10010039.
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Land-use and cover change (LUCC) impacts global environmental changes. Therefore, it is crucial to obtain cross-national level LUCC data that represents past and actual LUCC. As urban areas exhibit the most significant dynamics of the changes, accompanied by such processes as urban sprawl, it seems desirable to take into account LUCC information from such areas to acquire national level information. The paper analyses land-use changes (LUCs) in urban areas in Czechia, Poland, and Slovakia. The analysis is based on functional urban area (FUA) data from the European Urban Atlas project for 2006 and 2012. The area of urbanised land grew at the expense of agricultural areas, semi-natural areas, and wetlands over the investigated period in all three countries. The authors determined LUC direction models in urban areas based on the identified land-use change. The proposed LUC direction models for the investigated period and area should offer national level LUC data for such purposes as modelling of future changes or can be the point of reference for planning analyses. The paper proposes the following models: mean model, median model, weighted mean model where the weight is the urbanised to vegetated area ratio, and weighted mean model where the weight is the share of urbanised areas. According to the proposed LUC models, areas considered as urbanised grow in FUAs on average in six years by 5.5900‰ in Czechia, 7.5936‰ in Poland, and 4.0769‰ in Slovakia. Additionally, the change models facilitated determination of a LUC dynamics ratio in each country. It reached the highest values in Poland and the lowest in Slovakia.
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García, Perla Jannet Jurado, Julio Cesar Guedea Delgado, Leopoldo Ramirez Llanes, Fernando Mondaca Fernandez, and Elia Veronica Benavides Pando. "Locus of Control in Mexican University Students Comparisons by Gender." European Scientific Journal, ESJ 13, no. 2 (2017): 235. http://dx.doi.org/10.19044/esj.2017.v13n2p235.
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The aim of this research was to compare the profiles of locus of control in Mexican university students. The total sample was of 1537 subjects; 820 women and 717 men, with a mean age of 20.38 years (SD = 1.81) and 20.78 years (SD = 1.94) respectively. The approach adopted in the research is framed within a quantitative approach with a survey descriptive design. The results of the multivariate analysis of variance, followed by the univariate variance analyzes, are the ones who show higher levels of external locus of control in the factors of luck, political power, destiny and interpersonal relationships, while men report higher levels of locus as luck external control, political power, destination and interpersonal relationships. The differences found between men and women regarding the locus of control, suggest that when designing any intervention that aims to strengthen the internal locus of control will have to take into account the gender variable.
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Sakura, Katarina Noviming. "Manggarai Speech Community Local Wisdom in Ireng Neka Dur Ata: Preliminary Study of Cultural Ingistics." Journal of A Sustainable Global South 3, no. 1 (2019): 32. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/jsgs.2019.v03.i01.p07.
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This article aims at describing the local wisdom of Manggarai Speech Community through a form of taboo language called ireng. Ireng is a verbal tradition contains a set of taboo actions that will bring bad luck to those who decide not to obey it. Ireng neka dur ata is the data used on this article. The local wisdom is found through analysis process of value and meaning of ireng neka dur ata. The result shows 5 facts: (1) this ireng contains of lingual unit that are modus of speech, verb choice, and word order, (2) harmony of life is the value taught through this ireng, (3) contextual meaning of this ireng is “do not extrude guest and its consequence of bad luck in economic”, (4) the local wisdom found are a habit and a sacrifice of the guest and the host, (5) the obedient to its culture, the effort maintain harmony of life, and serve people above self are reflection of the character of Manggarai Speech Community
 Index Terms— local wisdom, ireng, cultural linguistics
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FRENCH, LORELY. "The concept of baxt in the bilingual short-story collection glücksmacher - e baxt romani by Samuel Mago and Károly Mágó." Romani Studies 30, no. 2 (2020): 217–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.3828/rs.2020.11.
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This article presents a close reading of the Romani characters and their actions in five stories by Viennese Romani writer and activist Samuel Mago and in two stories by his brother, Hungarian award-winning journalist Károly Mágó, in their bilingual Romani and German collection glücksmacher - e baxt romani. Brief biographies and an outline of the history of Roma and antiziganism in Austria provide background to textual analysis that focuses on how characters in the stories engender baxt/“Glück,” which means both happiness and luck. This dual meaning has inspired philosophical, psychological, economic, and anthropological studies, but literary scholars have rarely examined the concept in texts by Roma. For the protagonists in the brothers’ stories, happiness and luck become based less on monetary fortunes than on other means to live and survive in dark times of persecution and discrimination. The characters’ decisions unveil perceptions of baxt that rely largely on acquiring food, preserving and passing down family heirlooms, receiving an education, and freeing oneself and one’s family from persecution.
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Lam, W. L., J. M. Rawlins, R. O. S. Karoo, I. Naylor, and D. T. Sharpe. "Re-visiting Luck’s classification: a histological analysis of Dupuytren’s disease." Journal of Hand Surgery (European Volume) 35, no. 4 (2010): 312–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1753193410362848.
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Luck (1959) described a histological staging system for Dupuytren’s disease, classifying the disease into three stages. Previous biochemical and immunochemical studies have detailed the decrease in type III/I collagen ratio with disease progression. Herovici (1963) described a histological stain that produced a differential red/purple and blue colour for type I and III collagen respectively. We stained 15 specimens of Dupuytren’s disease and quantified the different collagen types in each using computer analysis. We found a corresponding decrease in the amount of type III collagen as a percentage of the total collagen with disease progression: stage I range 35–49% (mean 38%); stage 2 range 21–33% (mean 27%) and stage 3 range 11–19% (mean 14%). We propose a new staging system based on the relative amount of type III collagen, where stage 1: >35%, stage 2: >20% and <35%, and stage 3: <20%.
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Davion, Victoria. "Rape, Group Responsibility and Trust." Hypatia 10, no. 2 (1995): 153–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1527-2001.1995.tb01378.x.
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In this paper I link the very interesting analysis of responsibility provided by Larry May and Robert Strikwerda in “Men in Groups: Collective Responsibility for Rape (May and Strikwerda 1994) to some strategies for helping women avoid rape. In addition, I call for some clarification on May and Strikwerda's claim that rapists are fully responsible for their actions and that it is largely a matter of luck which men actually turn out to be rapists.
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Yamauchi, Hirotsugu. "An Analysis of Affect and Expectancy Evaluations in Causal Attributions." Psychological Reports 60, no. 3_part_2 (1987): 1115–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0033294187060003-220.1.
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Two relationships were examined, the relationship between the achievement-related affect and causal attributions for success or failure and the relationship between the expectancy shift and causal ascriptions for success or failure. Subjects were 417 elementary school children, 459 junior high school students, and 175 college students. Two hypothetical boys or girls who received similar marks on an examination but who attributed the results to different causes (ability, effort or luck) were described in a booklet. Subjects were asked to judge which person feels more pleasant (or unpleasant) and which person should expect the same outcome on further similar exams. The method of dual scaling was applied to the paired-comparison data for each sample. Two-dimensional solutions were extracted in the positive affect with success, the expectancy of success after success and the expectancy of failure after failure. Whereas a unidimensional solution was extracted in the negative affect with failure. Developmental shifts were found for successful outcome.
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Mishler, William, Marilyn Hoskin, and Roy Fitzgerald. "British Parties in the Balance: A Time-Series Analysis of Long-Term Trends in Labour and Conservative Support." British Journal of Political Science 19, no. 2 (1989): 211–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007123400005445.
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The electoral domination of the Conservative party during the past decade has been interpreted by many as evidence of a long-term shift in the balance of public support from Labour to the Conservatives. This article argues that such a shift has not occurred. Rather, the stability apparent in recent election results disguises considerable underlying volatility. The balance of public support between the major parties continues to be highly unstable and subject to large and precipitous fluctuations in response to relatively small economic changes and ordinary political events. Recent Conservative victories appear to be the results more of good timing and luck than of any fundamental, long-term dynamic in British politics.
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Santokhie, Stefan, and Garth E. Lipps. "Development and Validation of the Tertiary Student Locus of Control Scale." SAGE Open 10, no. 1 (2020): 215824401989906. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2158244019899061.
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This study developed and validated a measure of Locus of Control in university students. Tertiary academic locus of control is the general expectancy that university students have regarding their ability to change their academic outcomes. Students who have an internal academic locus of control expect that their own efforts, skill, or luck will lead to academic success, while those with an external locus of control believe that academic outcomes are a result of luck, destiny, fate, or the behaviors of others. A series of steps were taken to develop the Tertiary Student Locus of Control (TSLOC) scale. These steps included defining the construct, developing a nomological network of the construct, and constructing an item pool of 66 items. Following the creation of the item pool, an item analysis was conducted on the 66-item measure to produce the 30-item TSLOC scale. The draft scale was administered to 100 participants (80 females and 20 males predominantly of Afro-Caribbean heritage from English-speaking Caribbean islands). The TSLOC scale had an internal consistency of .96 and had strong concurrent validity and moderate discriminant validity. A principal component analysis indicated that the TSLOC was a multidimensional scale composed of three underlying dimensions. The TSLOC scale was found to be valid and reliable for the current population of Caribbean tertiary students. The limitations and implications are discussed.
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Krueathep, Weerasak. "Bad Luck or Bad Budgeting: An Analysis of Budgetary Roles Underpinning Poor Municipal Fiscal Conditions in Thailand." Public Budgeting & Finance 34, no. 3 (2014): 51–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/pbaf.12040.
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Tarabichi, Maxime, and Vincent Detours. "A research note regarding "Variation in cancer risk among tissues can be explained by the number of stem cell divisions"." F1000Research 5 (August 22, 2016): 2044. http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.9448.1.
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Tomasetti and Vogelstein argued that 2/3 of human cancers are due to ‘bad luck’ and that “primary prevention measures [against cancer] are not likely to be very effective”. We demonstrate that their calculations for hepatocellular carcinomas overlooked a major subset of these cancers proven to be preventable through vaccination. The problem, which is not limited to hepatocellular carcinoma, arises from the general reliance of their analysis on average incidences in the United States and the omission of incidences in specific risk groups.
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Tarabichi, Maxime, and Vincent Detours. "A research note regarding "Variation in cancer risk among tissues can be explained by the number of stem cell divisions"." F1000Research 5 (November 10, 2016): 2044. http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.9448.2.
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Tomasetti and Vogelstein argued that 2/3 of human cancers are due to ‘bad luck’ and that “primary prevention measures [against cancer] are not likely to be very effective”. We demonstrate that their calculations for hepatocellular carcinomas overlooked a major subset of these cancers proven to be preventable through vaccination. The problem, which is not limited to hepatocellular carcinoma, arises from the general reliance of their analysis on average incidences in the United States and the omission of incidences in specific risk groups.
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Meneses, Bruno, Eusébio Reis, Rui Reis, and Maria Vale. "The Effects of Land Use and Land Cover Geoinformation Raster Generalization in the Analysis of LUCC in Portugal." ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 7, no. 10 (2018): 390. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi7100390.
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Multiple land use and land cover (LUC) datasets are available for the analysis of LUC changes (LUCC) in distinct territories. Sometimes, different LUCC results are produced to characterize these changes for the same territory and the same period. These differences reflect: (1) The different properties of LUC geoinformation (GI) used in the LUCC assessment, and (2) different criteria used for vector-to-raster conversion, namely, those deriving from outputs with different spatial resolutions. In this research, we analyze LUCC in mainland Portugal using two LUC datasets with different properties: Corine Land Cover (CLC 2006 and 2012) and LUC official maps of Portugal (Carta de Ocupação do Solo, COS 2007 and 2010) provided by the European Environment Agency (EEA) and the General Directorate for Territorial Development (DGT). Each LUC dataset has undergone vector-to-raster conversion, with different resolutions (10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 m). LUCC were analyzed based on the vector GI of each LUC dataset, and with LUC raster outputs using different resolutions. Initially, it was observed that the areas with different LUC types in two LUC datasets in vector format were not similar—a fact explained by the different properties of this type of GI. When using raster GI to perform the analysis of LUCC, it was observed that at high resolutions, the results are identical to the results obtained when using vector GI, but this ratio decreases with increased cell size. In the analysis of LUCC results obtained with raster LUC GI, the outputs with pixel size greater than 100 m do not follow the same trend of LUCC obtained with high raster resolutions or using LUCC obtained with vector GI. These results point out the importance of the factor form and the area of the polygons, and different effects of amalgamation and dilation in the vector-to-raster conversion process, more evident at low resolutions. These findings are important for future evaluations of LUCC that integrate raster GI and vector/raster conversions, because the different LUC GI resolution in line with accuracy can explain the different results obtained in the evaluation of LUCC. The present work demonstrates this fact, i.e., the effects of vector-to-raster conversions using various resolutions culminated in different results of LUCC.
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Guizani, Moncef, and Ahdi Noomen Ajmi. "Board gender diversity and the timing of CEO stock option awards." Management Research: Journal of the Iberoamerican Academy of Management 19, no. 2 (2021): 105–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/mrjiam-09-2020-1092.
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Purpose This study aims to explore the role of board gender diversity in mitigating chief executive officer (CEO) luck. CEOs are “lucky” when they receive stock option grants on days when the stock price is the lowest in the month of the grant, implying opportunistic timing. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a logistic regression analysis and an instrumental-variable analysis. The sample consists of 3,249 firm-year observations from 2010 through 2015. Findings The results show that female directors significantly deter the opportunistic timing of option grants. This study finds that gender diversity – as measured by the percentage of women on the board, the percentage of female independent directors and the percentage of female directors on the compensation committee are likely to reduce the odds that CEOs receive opportunistically timed lucky grants. The results are consistent with those in prior research that documents the benefits of board gender diversity. Practical implications The research findings are beneficial to policymakers and regulators, as it allows them to assess the importance of diversity on boards in the monitoring of the managers, particularly as it pertains to the design of CEO compensation packages. Furthermore, these findings have implications for Ibero-American countries as they shed light on the importance to undertake measures and reforms to promote board effectiveness by the introduction of gender diversity. Originality/value While prior research has examined the effect of board gender diversity on firm performance, the study is the first to investigate the effect of female directors on the opportunistic timing of option grants, using a rigorous empirical framework that explicitly accounts for endogeneity.
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Elvin, Jesse. "Responsibility, ‘Bad Luck’, and Delinquent Animals: Law as a Means of Explaining Tragedy." Journal of Criminal Law 73, no. 6 (2009): 530–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1350/jcla.2009.73.6.607.
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This article examines the phenomenon of the prosecution and punishment of animals in medieval and early modern Western legal systems. Animal trials are important because examining them can help us learn more about the functions of legal proceedings. The article considers potential explanations regarding these trials. With reference to Nicholas Humphrey's idea that the animal trials were the product of a search for order, the article subsequently argues that the notion that law can make sense of tragedies by defining them as the consequence of culpable conduct is illuminating in the context of contemporary English law. By conducting an analysis of a well-known contemporary criminal law case, the James Bulger trial, the article shows that one can plausibly interpret the outcome of certain significant modern cases as having the function of explaining tragedies in a relatively reassuring manner, and that this function may conflict with the requirement of ‘doing justice’.
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Lin, Jianhao, Xi Zhang, Wang Mingxi, Yi Hu, and Julei Fu. "Does the great moderation of China’s macroeconomic exist during the reform era?" Filomat 30, no. 15 (2016): 3917–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/fil1615917l.
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This paper documents the Great Moderation of China?s macroeconomic volatilities during the reform period. Using the conditional Markov chain model, it is found that with the break date at 1995Q1, China?s business cycle has changed from the ?Boom-bust Cycle? to the ?Great Moderation?. Evidence from the multiresolution wavelet analysis reveals that a decline in output volatility appears to be evenly distributed across frequencies. These results provide some striking evidence consistent with the potential explanations of good institution, good luck and good policy, but weaker evidence for the good practice hypothesis.