Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „International repeat mobility“

Background Older cancer survivors, faced with both age- and treatment-related morbidity, are at increased and premature risk for physical function limitations. Physical performance is an important predictor of disability, quality of life, and premature mortality, and thus is considered an important target of interventions designed to prevent, delay, or attenuate the physical functional decline. Currently, low-cost, valid, and reliable methods to remotely assess physical performance tests that are self-administered by older adults in the home-setting do not exist, thus limiting the reach, scalability, and dissemination of interventions. Objective This paper will describe the rationale and design for a study to evaluate the accuracy, reliability, safety, and acceptability of videoconferencing and self-administered tests of functional mobility and strength by older cancer survivors in their own homes. Methods To enable remote assessment, participants receive a toolkit and instructions for setting up their test course and communicating with the investigator. Two standard gerontologic performance tests are being evaluated: the Timed Up and Go test and the 30-second chair stand test. Phase 1 of the study evaluates proof-of-concept that older cancer survivors (age ≥60 years) can follow the testing protocol and use a tablet PC to communicate with the study investigator. Phase 2 evaluates the criterion validity of videoconference compared to direct observation of the two physical performance tests. Phase 3 evaluates reliability by enrolling 5-10 participants who agree to repeat the remote assessment (without direct observation). Phase 4 enrolls 5-10 new study participants to complete the remote assessment test protocol. Feedback from participants in each phase is used to refine the test protocol and instructions. Results Enrollment began in December 2019. Ten participants completed the Phase 1 proof-of-concept. The study was paused in mid-March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study is expected to be completed by the end of 2020. Conclusions This validity and reliability study will provide important information on the acceptability and safety of using videoconferencing to remotely assess two tests of functional mobility and strength, self-administered by older adults in their homes. Videoconferencing has the potential to expand the reach, scalability, and dissemination of interventions to older cancer survivors, and potentially other older adults, especially in rural areas. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04339959; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04339959 International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID) DERR1-10.2196/20834

IntroductionRespiratory failure requiring endotracheal intubation accounts for a significant proportion of intensive care unit (ICU) admissions. Little attention has been paid to the laryngeal consequences of endotracheal intubation. Acute laryngeal injury (ALgI) after intubation occurs at the mucosal interface of the endotracheal tube and posterior larynx and although not immediately manifest at extubation, can progress to mature fibrosis, restricted glottic mobility and clinically significant ventilatory impairment. A recent prospective observational study has shown that >50% of patients intubated >24 hours in an ICU develop ALgI. Strikingly, patients with AlgI manifest significantly worse subjective breathing at 12 weeks. Current ALgI treatments are largely surgical yet offer a marginal improvement in symptoms.In this study, we will examine the ability of a postextubation medical regime (azithromycin and inhaled budesonide) to improve breathing 12 weeks after ALgI.Methods and analysisA prospective, single-centre, double-blinded, randomised, control trial will be conducted at Vanderbilt Medical Center. Participants will be recruited from adult patients in ICUs. Participants will undergo a bedside flexible nasolaryngoscopy for the identification of ALgI within 72 hours postextubation. In addition, participants will be asked to complete peak expiratory flow measurements immediately postintubation. Patients found to have ALgI will be randomised to the placebo control or medical therapy group (azithromycin 250 mg and budesonide 0.5 mg for 14 days). Repeat peak expiratory flow, examination of the larynx and patient-reported Clinical COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) Questionnaire, Voice Handicap Index and 12-Item Short Form Health Survey questionnaires will be conducted at 12 weeks postextubation. Consented patients will also have patient-specific, disease-specific and procedure-specific covariates abstracted from their medical record.Ethics and disseminationThe Institutional Review Board (IRB) Committee of the Vanderbilt University Medical Center has approved this protocol (IRB #171066). The findings of the trial will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, national and international conferences.Trial registration numberNCT03250975

Student migration has been increasing over recent years in Nepal. The increasing numbers of students leave the country to the developed countries for their higher education with the hope of getting practical skills and knowledge and other valuable experiences to enhance their future carrier. This paper intends to explore the motivation, aspirations, and excitements among international students while flying abroad to pursue their higher education from the developed countries. In doing so, we adopted a narrative inquiry assuming that the stories of student mobility and its outcome challenge the educational and employment aspirations of youth in Nepal. The aspirations among international students encourage them to fly abroad due to the expectation of handsome earning and pursuing a foreign degree. Moreover, this paper also highlights the motivation of prospective students and their desire to fly abroad for their academic journey.

This special issue aims at understanding “expatriate” mobility with a special focus on the role of family and intimacy, and brings together different case-studies, built through different theoretical perspectives. These allow approaching “expatriate” mobile families along two main lines: as part of the making of life trajectories, and as these are shaped by, and are shaping, professional trajectories. This editorial highlights the contributions of the various articles, before addressing a series of emerging issues. Among these, it questions the very notion of “expatriate” in the light of family life, shows the evolution of families in repeated mobility, and brings to the fore the importance of temporality and timing in these family lives, as well as that of reflexivity in mobility. As a whole, the various contributions of this special issue complement each other in illustrating the complexities of expatriates’ migration and family life in times of increasing global mobility, but also, they raise theoretical discussions, point to possible empirical implications, and suggest avenues for further investigations.

Migration is already a significant global phenomenon, and it is likely to become more so. According to a recent World Bank report, there are two hundred million international migrants. The study reports that “migration pressures” will continue “for the foreseeable future.” It will take “decades” to close income gaps between developed and developing countries; in 2015, the ratio between the average income of the high-income countries and that of the low-income countries stood at 70:1. A “well-documented demographic divergence” will add further pressure: “Population aging will produce large labor-market imbalances and fiscal pressures in high-income countries as the tax base narrows and the cost of caring for the old surges.” This increase in demand will complement an increase in supply. “If current fertility and national employment rates remain as they are in the developing world,” the Bank reports, by 2050 “nearly 900 million [will be] in search of work.” Climate change and disasters will have a more modest impact on the international level, although “increased drought and desertification, rising sea levels, repeated crop failures, and more intense and frequent storms are likely to increase internal migration.” And these numbers—measuring persons outside their home country for more than a year—do not include hundreds of millions of persons who cross international borders for shorter periods of time: tourists, students, temporary workers, business persons, asylum-seekers.

This paper integrates life course principles to investigate interdependencies between residential, family and professional trajectories following an international migration, and enhance the more classic micro-economic explanations of foreign-born internal migration. Using retrospective data from the Swiss Household Panel survey, we follow foreign-born residents for a six-year period and analyse long- and short-distance mobility outcomes. By considering repeated migration in a multilevel framework, we tackle the question of whether successive migration is due to a short-term adjustment process or rather to a long-term phenomenon for a hypermobile segment of the population. The results corroborate important synchronicities between marriage, employment transitions and spatial outcomes, but fail to confirm the simultaneous process of childbirth and residential relocation. We conclude that successive long-distance and successive short-distance migration are confined to a selected segment of the population with high latent mobility propensity, while a long-short migration sequence rather results from a process of housing adjustment.

This study explores how social movement organisations involved in the abortion debate in the Republic of Ireland attempted to appeal to men in their campaign messages before the 2018 referendum on the Eighth Amendment concerning abortion. We scrape social movement organisations’ Twitter accounts to conduct quantitative and qualitative content analyses of images and videos the organisations posted, and find evidence that social movement organisations sometimes extended their frames to men as voters. Social movement organisations evoked themes of hegemonic masculinity in their imagery and messaging, though these themes were not a large portion of overall campaign tweets and there were distinct differences in how this was done by the two organisations we study. Previous research suggests anti-abortion organisations extend their frames to incorporate ‘pro-woman’ messaging. Our research contributes by exploring the ways that frames may be extended by both anti- and pro-abortion actors to target men and mobilise masculinity in public debates over women’s rights.

Background Traumatic brain injury (TBI) may impact an individual physically, cognitively, socially, and emotionally. Poor balance, reduced mobility, and low daily physical activity often will require ongoing physical rehabilitation intervention. However, face-to-face specialized physiotherapy is not always accessible for individuals living in rural settings. Objective We will answer four questions: (1) What is the feasibility of a remotely supervised, home-based, intensive exercise intervention with survivors of moderate and severe TBI? (2) Does the frequency of remote supervision have an impact on the feasibility of completing a home-based intensive exercise program? (3) Does the frequency of remote supervision impact balance, functional mobility, and physical activity? (4) What is the lived experience of remote supervision for both survivors and caregivers? Methods Four participants will complete two intensive, 4-week (five days per week) home-based exercise interventions remotely supervised via synchronous videoconference. Each exercise intervention will have a goal of 160 to 300 repetitions or 60 minutes of tailored exercises to promote neuroplasticity and be defined as an intensive home-based exercise intervention. An alternating single-subject design will allow for the comparison between two frequencies of remote supervision, once weekly and five times weekly. Daily repeated outcome measures, pre- and postintervention outcome measures, and 1-month follow-up outcome measures will be collected to explore the effect on feasibility and physical variables. Daily outcome measures include step count and Five Times Sit-to-Stand test. Pre-post measures include assessment of quiet stance and the Community Balance and Mobility Scale. A semistructured interview will be completed at the end of each intervention segment to document the lived experience of both survivors and their study partners. Finally, five questionnaires will be used to understand the overall experience: the Mayo-Portland Adaptability Inventory-4 Participation Index, Satisfaction With Life Scale, Fall Efficacy Scale-International, Interpersonal Behavior Questionnaire, and System Usability Scale. Data will be analyzed following traditional single-subject methods of analysis. Results Ethics approval was received from both the Bruyère Research Institute and University of Ottawa review boards in March 2019. Recruitment is underway. Conclusions The proposed intervention is complex in nature due to the involvement of multiple technology sources and the inclusion of a complex dyad (survivors and caregivers) in a community setting. This type of research is timely given that alternative methods of physical intervention delivery are needed to facilitate gains in balance, mobility, physical activity among TBI survivors with limited access to clinical care, and the quality of the patients’ experience. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID) PRR1-10.2196/14867

Background. According to the Consensus 2010 of the International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation (ILCOR), children with moderate to severe hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) should receive brain hypothermic therapy (BHT) after successful resuscitation. Elevated high mobility group box 1 (HMGB1) in the blood at the early stage of brain ischemia-reperfusion injury has been suggested to be involved in the release of various inflammatory cytokines.Methods. In total, 21 neonates plasma HMGB1 concentration was measured. These neonates included 8 with HIE in whom BHT was indicated, 5 controls diagnosed as having HIE but who were not suitable candidates for BHT, and 8 normal controls.Results. The umbilical artery HMGB1 (UA-HMGB1) level before undergoing BHT significantly exceeded reference values. The UA-HMGB1 level in the BHT (−) group did not differ significantly from reference values, but was significantly increased 24 hours after birth. Repeated measure ANOVA showed a significant difference in time course changes between the BHT (+) and BHT (−) groups (P=0.0002).Conclusions. This study demonstrated hypothermic therapy to significantly decrease HMGB1. Furthermore, HMGB1 is a useful index of the inhibition of early stage inflammation.

There is a general recognition within the social sciences that extensive mobility challenges how we perceive the notion of home. With this idea as its starting point, this thesis explores how situations of hardship impact the ways in which mobile professionals negotiate and construct their homes. The actor-network theory (ANT) has been used as the means to explore the interactions between the people who inform this study and the multidimensional characteristics of the hardship setting. Through individual, open-ended interviews, the research draws upon the experiences of five international civil servants from the United Nations (UN) system of organizations who are assigned to hardship duty stations. Applying ANT to the empirical material drew the attention to the identification of five principal entities (or actors) that come into play in the negotiation of home construction, namely the civil servant, [in]security, mobility, ownership and social relations. The influence of the various nonhuman actors on home construction varied according to the individual and their transnational ties and professional status – those with family nuclei tended to situate their homes in terms of territoriality, whereas for others, factors such as privacy, materiality and social interaction weighed more heavily in the act of creating home.

In the last years, there has been a large increase in high-educated and high-skilled people’s mobility as a consequence of the internationalization and globalization, the weakening of research and university systems of sending countries (the “brain drain” process), the increase in skilled demand and improvements in higher education of host countries (the “brain gain” process). At the micro-level, academic mobility has positive consequences on occupational prospects and careers of researchers, both in the short- and long- run. Nevertheless, numerous research studies have demonstrated the challenges of engaging in international academic mobility for people with caring responsibilities, particularly women. Using Italian data on occupational conditions of PhDs collected in 2018 by Istat and modelling multinomial logistic regression analyses, we intend to verify if female researchers are associated with a lower international mobility irrespective their field of study, and the extent to which gender interacts differently in the various fields of study in affecting the probability of moving abroad after PhD qualification. Also, the distinction between long-term and short-term mobility, which has been mainly neglected in the literature concentrating on longer stays, has taken into account. In this respect, short-term mobility is a potentially high-value investment that may be pursued also by those researchers and scientists who cannot move for longer periods, such as women with caring responsibilities. In the literature, it is acknowledged that an experience abroad during early career may have positive effects on future occupational prospects. With our work, we intend to shed light on potential disparities on moving abroad that may exist among researchers in their early career by gender, and which could contribute to leave behind women in academia.

Abstract The chapter sets out to answer a question that has long been on the mind of policy-makers, university leaders, scholars and students: does international student credit mobility have a positive impact on graduate employability? Traditionally, this question has been answered using survey data where internationally mobile students self-report their employment situation at a certain point after graduation. According to these studies, international student mobility positively affects the labour market outcomes of students. For instance, the European Commission reports that: (1) students who completed an Erasmus mobility program are half as likely to face long-term unemployment; (2) the unemployment rate of Erasmus students is 23% lower five years after graduation (European Commission 2014). While these studies provide important insights about the benefits associated with the cross-border credit mobility of students, the results can be plagued by self-selection bias in reporting post-mobility employment outcomes. In order to avoid the problems associated with survey data, in this chapter we offer an analysis based on register data from university records and employment records, using as a case study the West University of Timisoara, a leading comprehensive university in Romania. Using register data offers the possibility to study population-level data and compare the employment outcomes of mobile and non-mobile students. The chapter analyses the impact of credit mobility on insertion in the labour market, income levels and occupational prestige. While the research question that the chapter is trying to answer is important, the main message of the chapter is broader: ministries and higher education institutions should release data for research purposes. Register data is readily available and helps researchers make efficient use of resources. In turn, this can encourage evidence-based policymaking.

The United States and China are the world’s largest economies. Together they are responsible for about one-third of the world’s economic output. This chapter aims to examine whether the two economic giants are also lands of opportunity where resources are allocated in a way that minimizes unrealized human potential. Our analysis shows that despite stark differences in their levels of development, the US and China report remarkably similar levels of socioeconomic mobility—levels considered low by international standards. The US’s level of mobility has historically been low. Before it embarked on its transition from planned to market economy, socioeconomic mobility was relatively high in China. However, as it underwent a period of rapid economic growth, China’s socioeconomic mobility declined significantly. The chapter concludes that the world’s two major economic powers have converged to a low level of socioeconomic mobility where talent from disadvantaged backgrounds is excluded.

Reporting to and providing the public with information on the environment is becoming increasingly important for governmental environmental agencies at the regional, national and international levels. In the private sector, a growing number of companies are now voluntarily disclosing environmental information, both as stand-alone corporate reports and as special environmental or sustainability sections within corporate annual reports. An environmental report of a public administration serves the purpose to inform the public about the state of the environment in their country or region. While formerly such reports were structured along environmental objects, such as air, forests, water resources and traffic, one can observe a new trend towards a structure along environmental topics such as climate change, mobility and biodiversity.

The European Commission report (Helm & van der Velden, 2019) on the impact of Virtual Exchange (VE) on Higher Education (HE) students highlights the importance of VE in developing a wide range of skills, including 21st century skills, digital competences, soft skills such as teamwork, and collaborative problem solving, critical thinking, and media literacy. The report also evidences positive impact on perceived self-esteem, curiosity, intercultural sensitivity, reflection on beliefs and behaviours, and an ability to see complexity in intercultural communication. More recently, the value and role of VE in ‘Internationalisation at Home’ (IaH) has been foregrounded with an emphasis on the design of more environmentally sustainable, accessible, equitable, and meaningful intercultural and multinational experiences (Helm & Beaven, 2020). Improvement in employability skills and competences such as the ability to work in virtual, international, and intercultural environments has also been a key driver for recent VE projects (European Union and EACEA, 2020). The reduction in physical mobility opportunities due to the COVID-19 pandemic further increased interest in VE. But what is and what is not VE? How does VE support internationalisation agendas? What is the importance of digital equity in VE? This introductory chapter will attempt to briefly address these questions, and provide an overview of the organisation of this book which involves selected short papers presented at the International VE Conference (IVEC) 2020.

Public access to environmental information is granted by international law. The European Community has established an Infrastructure for Spatial Information (INSPIRE) in order to provide data and information to effected environmental policies. ISPRA coordinates the Italian Environmental Information and Monitoring System (SINA) and represents the national Inspire coordination structure. Moreover, ISPRA disseminates environmental information through reports, on-line services, and WebGis. Recently, a new WebGis has been developed to provide public access to environmental indicators data contained in the annual report on urban environment quality. Soil, water and air quality, waste, industrial risk, transport and mobility, acoustic and electromagnetic pollution, nature and biodiversity, tourism, and energy were analysed in 34 urban areas. The WebGis provides simple and powerful tools to analyze environmental dynamics of urban areas promoting participatory planning. It was designed to easily access and select the indicators data and to represent their spatial and temporal distribution.

This paper interrogates the role of students’ mobility within the framework of 2030 Agenda, specifically, the prospects of reaching Sustainable Development Goal 4, a quality education for all by 2030. Empirical data draw upon a report that analyzes mobility’s figures over the last five academic years at the University of Évora, Portugal. Important insight can be gained from 2030 Agenda when looking at the strong imbalance observed between IN and OUT mobility, countries of origin and destination, gender and age distribution of the students’ missions. The paper claims for a call for action in order to use academic mobility as a tool to meet the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. While academic mobility can and should be understood as part of a broader strategy aiming the dissemination and internationalization of knowledge and skills, acquisition and transfer of good practices, it should not neglect a commitment that through SDGs unites us all: to reduce inequalities and to improve the quality of life among individuals around the world.

The army has a vision for using autonomous micro ground vehicles (MGV) for soldier support in the last 100 meters of operations in urban and natural environments. These MGVs are expected to typically fit in a human palm and weigh in the order of 30–50 grams. Robust mobility is a necessary condition to ensure operations. Given the severe challenge of size, weight and power (SWAP) of the MGVs, significant uncertainties currently remain in quantifying micro ground vehicle mobility. In this paper we describe a research methodology and representative results for understanding legged MGV mobility in different types of terrain. Our methodology is based on a synergy of novel experimental setup and high-fidelity computational methods. We report the use of a novel “single-leg” test rig that uses tactile sensors to measure ground interaction loads. We also report the use of high speed imaging and use of particle image velocimetry to understand soil deformation during legged interactions with terrain. Finally, we report on the use of multibody dynamics and High Performance Computing (HPC) based granular media simulations. This conference paper emphases more on the overall approach based on synergistic use of high fidelity modeling and experimental methods supported by representative results rather than presenting a detailed analyses of the results.

In this paper, we report ion transport in 2-nm-deep nanochannels. These nanochannels are formed by controlled dry etching in silicon wafer and following anodic bonding with pyrex substrate. Our results show that surface charge dominates ion transport in these channels at concentration up to 100 mM. Due to geometry confinement effect, these nanochannel take ultra long time to reach a steady state, 3 or 4 magnitude longer than bulk diffusion. Conductance data at different ionic concentrations are compared with simulation results from a one dimensional model that accounts for salt & pH-dependent surface charge. Difference between model and experimental data indicates that proton mobility at low concentration is one magnitude higher than bulk mobility while Na+/K+ mobility doens’t change at this length scale.

This paper describes temporal variations in embedment of several existing pipelines on the North-West Shelf (NWS) of Australia, and the sediment mobility processes that cause them. Distinct and explainable patterns in the extent, distribution and rate of the development of pipeline embedment have been revealed through systematic detailed examination of repeated annual integrity surveys by ROV. This represents a unique data-set that has been used to optimize the reliability of a newly designed pipeline. This paper explains why these clear findings should not be overlooked in both the buckling and stability design of initially unburied pipelines, which is in contrast to currently established industry practice. This new information supports the presumption that conventional approaches for calculating the hydrodynamic stability of unburied pipelines may be more conservative than necessary. Conversely, and arguably more importantly, it is shown that conventionally accepted methods for calculating pipe-seabed resistance forces when planning buckling schemes should be considered unsafe if embedment due to sediment mobility is possible. Consequently, this paper proposes an innovative calculation methodology that statistically captures these sediment mobility effects, and which facilitates a more justifiable geotechnical input to pipeline engineering than what is conventionally adopted. This methodology is currently being used by the authors as a state-of-the-art design practice for unburied offshore pipelines in regions of sediment mobility.

This report presents the results of the survey conducted among EASA members in 2018. The survey was a collaboration between EASA and the PrecAnthro Collective, whose members have worked together and mobilised since 2016 to raise awareness about the challenges of developing an academic career in anthropology. The themes explored in the survey reflect existing academic research on changes to the academic profession and the casualisation of labour in Europe and beyond. The survey enquired into the extent to which and how trends already documented in other disciplines, and in academia as a whole, affect anthropologists. These trends include a growing division between research and teaching, the deprofessionalisation of academic labour through multiple contract types, the imperatives of international mobility and cyclical fundraising, and weak labour unions. This report captures overall trends as well as regional differences in the anthropological profession in Europe.

This Annual Report of the Portuguese Polar Program, PROPOLAR reports the main activities conducted between August 2018 and December 2019 The PROPOLAR is led by the CEG/IGOT University of Lisbon, under a Coordinating Committee that includes members of other 4 Portuguese research institutions CCMAR University of the Algarve, MARE University of Coimbra, CQE University of Lisbon, and CIIMAR University of Oporto The Program is funded by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia MCTES FCT) as a development of its former Polar Office The activities herein disclosed reflect a very busy and inspiring year The PROPOLAR supported fifteen projects that were successfully carried out in the Arctic and Antarctica Logistics continued to be based on international cooperation and on a Portuguese funded Antarctic flight open to partner programs Logistical support in Antarctica was mainly provided by Spain, Chile and the Republic of Korea, also with strong cooperation in research and facilities with Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, China, Peru, Turkey, United States of America and Uruguay Participation in international meetings and workshops, as well as the organisation of a symposium and an international meeting, and the support provided to the Portuguese Conference on Polar Science, fulfilled and enriched this very active period, also helping to reinforce the credibility and relevance of the program in the international polar arena B ringing together all these efforts and resources will surely attract and mobilise more young researchers into a Polar scientific career, thus ensuring the future of the Portuguese Polar science, and that the program will continue to blossom We are confident that the successes that PROPOLAR has had in 2019 will serve as an impetus for our very dynamic and committed community of polar researchers to move forward in in vesting in the future of the Portuguese P olar science and preparing to seize new opportunities

International climate finance is vital to global cooperation on climate change. As many developing countries reel from the effects of coronavirus, the prospect of climate-induced extreme weather risks compounding crises and poverty. Climate change could undo decades of progress in development and dramatically increase global inequalities. There is an urgent need for climate finance to help countries cope and adapt. Over a decade ago, developed countries committed to mobilize $100bn per year by 2020 to support developing countries to adapt and reduce their emissions. The goal is a critical part of the Paris Agreement. As 2020 draws to a close, Oxfam’s Climate Finance Shadow Report 2020 offers an assessment of progress towards the $100bn goal. The third in a series, this report looks at the latest donor figures for 2017–18, with a strong focus on public finance. It considers how climate finance is being counted and spent; where it is going; how close we are to the $100bn goal; and what lessons need to be learned for climate finance post-2020.

In the spring of 2008, WIFO, KMU Forschung Austria, Prognos AG in Germany and convelop were jointly commissioned by the Austrian Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology and the Austrian Federal Ministry of Economy, Family and Youth to perform a systems evaluation of the country's research promotion and funding activities. Based on their findings, six recommendations were developed for a change in Austrian RTDI policy as outlined below: 1. to move from a narrow to a broader approach in RTDI policy (links to education policy, consideration of the framework for innovation such as competition, international perspectives and mobility); 2. to move from an imitation to a frontrunner strategy (striving for excellence and market leadership in niche and high-quality segments, increasing market shares in advanced sectors and technology fields, and operating in segments of relevance for society); 3. to move from a fragmented approach to public intervention to a more coordinated and consistent approach(explicit economic goals, internal and external challenges and reasoning for public intervention); 4. to move from a multiplicity of narrowly defined funding programmes to a flexible, dynamic policy that uses a broader definition of its tasks and priorities (key technology and research segments as priority-action fields, adequate financing of clusters and centres of excellence); 5. to move from an unclear to a precisely defined allocation of responsibilities between ministries and other players in the field (high-ranking steering group at government level, monitoring by a Science, Research and Innovation Council); 6. to move from red-tape-bound to a modern management of public intervention (institutional separation between ministries formulating policies and agencies executing them, e.g., by "progressive autonomy").

The main recommendations of the panel report can be summarised under five key headings:  Building the Scottish Bronze Age: Narratives should be developed to account for the regional and chronological trends and diversity within Scotland at this time. A chronology Bronze Age Scotland: ScARF Panel Report iv based upon Scottish as well as external evidence, combining absolute dating (and the statistical modelling thereof) with re-examined typologies based on a variety of sources – material cultural, funerary, settlement, and environmental evidence – is required to construct a robust and up to date framework for advancing research.  Bronze Age people: How society was structured and demographic questions need to be imaginatively addressed including the degree of mobility (both short and long-distance communication), hierarchy, and the nature of the ‘family’ and the ‘individual’. A range of data and methodologies need to be employed in answering these questions, including harnessing experimental archaeology systematically to inform archaeologists of the practicalities of daily life, work and craft practices.  Environmental evidence and climate impact: The opportunity to study the effects of climatic and environmental change on past society is an important feature of this period, as both palaeoenvironmental and archaeological data can be of suitable chronological and spatial resolution to be compared. Palaeoenvironmental work should be more effectively integrated within Bronze Age research, and inter-disciplinary approaches promoted at all stages of research and project design. This should be a two-way process, with environmental science contributing to interpretation of prehistoric societies, and in turn, the value of archaeological data to broader palaeoenvironmental debates emphasised. Through effective collaboration questions such as the nature of settlement and land-use and how people coped with environmental and climate change can be addressed.  Artefacts in Context: The Scottish Chalcolithic and Bronze Age provide good evidence for resource exploitation and the use, manufacture and development of technology, with particularly rich evidence for manufacture. Research into these topics requires the application of innovative approaches in combination. This could include biographical approaches to artefacts or places, ethnographic perspectives, and scientific analysis of artefact composition. In order to achieve this there is a need for data collation, robust and sustainable databases and a review of the categories of data.  Wider Worlds: Research into the Scottish Bronze Age has a considerable amount to offer other European pasts, with a rich archaeological data set that includes intact settlement deposits, burials and metalwork of every stage of development that has been the subject of a long history of study. Research should operate over different scales of analysis, tracing connections and developments from the local and regional, to the international context. In this way, Scottish Bronze Age studies can contribute to broader questions relating both to the Bronze Age and to human society in general.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.